11/06/2013 Newsnight Scotland

While that trend continues Russia will remain on a very different

to independence? This little ditty is the latest in a

long line of protests against the so-called bedroom tax. But on the

day an expert panel reports on the beat can exalt a Scottish welfare

system, we ask if Scottish attitudes to social protection are really so

different from those in the rest of the UK.

A new report says an independent Scotland could have its own welfare

state, but recommend staying with the UK system, at least for a few

years. The Scottish Government claims it wants welfare based on

Scottish values. It is clear the issue is emerging as a key one in

the independence debate. But what are these Scottish values and how

would the SNP's welfare state be any different?

# You cannae have a spare room in a pokey council flat... # as the

debate over Scotland's future continues, social welfare has

emerged as one of these central issues in the case for independence.

Today came some practical advice on the delivery of benefits which the

Scottish Government seemed happy to accept. In terms of the

Administration as opposed to the policy of welfare, the

recommendation is for the transitional period of shared

administration. That's insensible, not least because it is in the

interests of the rest of the UK. The key thing for me in terms of welfare

is the ability to design a welfare system that meets Scotland's

circumstances. That is the SNP vision, but the former UK Chancellor

questions its affordability. idea that there is a get out of jail

card, it is nonsense will stop it is far better to share those burdens

across the whole of the UK rather than take them on to a population of

only 6 million. Today's report also provided some insight into how much

money Scotland might have to spend on welfare in the future. So whether

Scotland currently stand on benefits spends in comparison to other parts

of the country? For Great Britain as a whole, the average figure is �2500

per head of population. For Scotland, the figure is slightly

higher, but still lower than in the north-east of England and Wales,

though the figure is upwards of �3000 per head of population. The

lowest figure is the south-east of England were benefits spending

amounts to less than �2500. What kind of welfare Bill will Scotland

have to cope with in the future? Right now, benefits spending in

Scotland stands at �18.1 billion. In the event of a yes vote in the

referendum, the Scottish Government is predicting independence to happen

in 2016. By then, benefits spending is forecast to rise to �19.2

billion. Looking further ahead to 2017 and 2018, the Bill is predicted

to increase further still to �19.7 billion. But for the SNP, this whole

issue is about more than just money. It speaks of values, Scottish

values. Only real independence will give us the tools we need to rid

Scotland of the poverty and the Deputy -- the deprivation that scars

our nation. And create the jobs and opportunities that will get people

off benefits, but not for Tory reasons, for the right reasons.

does she have a point? This was the reception awaiting the Conservatives

at a Scottish conference at the weekend. Back in March, the UK work

and pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith had a similar encounter while

making a speech in Edinburgh. So does all this proves the existence

of distinctive Scottish values being trampled on by Westminster reforms?

Maybe, but that is not just the SNP appealing to these values to make

its case. Scottish values and Scottish beliefs have shaped the

union over these last 300 years. It will continue if we are smart and do

the right things to shape what is effectively a multinational union,

one of the first that ever existed in the world. Do be think

differently about these matters than others across the UK? Scotland is

somewhat more favourable to the welfare system, typically on the

kind of questions that might be asked where 60% of people think the

welfare system is to cut back in anger. You'll find 60% of people in

Scotland seeing the same thing. Scotland are a little more happy

with the benefits system, but not that much more, and certainly not

with more cuts. But opinion is not so dramatically different, perhaps

keeping the same system may not be too much of a problem for Scottish

opinion. It seems to cut across the rhetoric of those have been -- who

have been campaigning on the yes side. Nevertheless, there is no

doubt that welfare reform, shall show protection and an appeal to

Scottish values will remain at the heart of the debate over Scotland's

future. -- social protection. Just before we came on air, I spoke

to Nicola Sturgeon. I asked her, apart from the bedroom tax, which

Coalition reforms to welfare she objected to.

There are a number of things. We don't agree with housing benefit

being lumped into universal credit and paid directly to recipients. It

wants to retain housing benefit separately so it can be paid to

landlords and help secure the income stream of housing associations and

councils, which is very important. We have made announcements very

recently about changes we would make to universal credit to deal with the

situation where second demos, which are principally women in the

household, have massive disincentives to get into work. Over

time, of course, we have the opportunity to design a welfare

system that is truly fit for Scotland's purposes. On the

big-ticket staff, according to this report produced by you today, the

biggest saving from Iain Duncan Smith's welfare reforms is changing

the way benefits are operated from the retail price index to the

consumer price index. Would you like to give us a commitment to would

reverse that west mac -- he would reverse that? The reports were # the

report was looking at delivery options. I asked a very direct

question. If you want a different welfare system, would you like to

guarantee now that you would reverse the biggest saving in welfare

spending, which is this change from RPI to CPI? There is a case to be

made for that, because what you are seeing right now is money being

taken from the pockets of people who are in work and ongoing comps. --

and in one comes. We will look at the delivery options of the system.

In the short game, we have asked them to do an additional piece of

work which is looking at reform of the welfare system. There will be

another set of proposals that may or may not include the kind of policy

you have spoken about. You have made a great deal about seeing you want a

welfare system that would make Scotland a more equal society.

you tell me a single policy that would do that question mark -- that

would do that? Getting rid of the Kent -- the bedroom tax. A system

that would protect the vulnerable in incentivised work. I have given new

examples of how the current system doesn't promote equality. So what

would you do? We would have a system that... What would you do?We would

get rid of the benefit tax, we would reform... You wouldn't do things

that IDS wouldn't do? We would reform the universal credit system

to make it more attractive for people to get into work. You have

got to accept that we will inherit a system, and there is a necessity to

look at specific changes to make to that system to deal with the worst

impacts of it, to make it fairer, while you work in the longer term at

how you date -- work with a welfare system that is integrated with the

tax system. Something that is more integrated with preventative

services and to stop people falling into poverty in the first place.

key issue in the batter Independence, you need to come up

with something else, you say you would not do what IDS will do and

she would not have the bedroom that is? We have inherited a system that

is wrong in many respects, so in the short-term, it is right for us to

undo those rungs, to write those wrongs. We would look for a welfare

system that is more integrated. Every politician says that.

differences, we not have the ability to do this, I cannot speak for other

politicians that have failed to do it. That is what Labour said they

would do in the UK. With the greatest respect, they were in power

for years in the UK and failed to do this. We need to be more

preventative to stop people falling into poverty in the first place and

to integrate welfare with the child poverty strategy. We cannot just see

welfare and have the rhetoric around welfare that we see from the UK

government about penalising and been punitive. This seems like a wish

list, not real policy, you have not really thought this out, have you?

We think about it step by step. This report today is the first step is

looking at the cost of the system we will inherit which is an important

foundation to build on, looking at how we were physically process and

administer the system in the early days of independence. And we have

constructed a certain second programme up today that will look at

the long-term programme for change, but I have given you a clear

indication of the kind of direction we would want to see that going to.

You say you would like to be nicer, everyone should have more money,

that is what you are saying? I have given you short-term specific

examples. Just to quote a sentence from your own report, concern about

income inequality and support for redistribution was showing as having

fallen in both Scotland and England in the last decade and across a

range of measures. We have a rhetoric around welfare across the

UK led by the UK government that tries to mislead people into

thinking all well first spend is on people that are scroungers and

skivers. People are concerned about being duped, is that what you are

saying? We spend on pensioners, families with children, people in

low-paid jobs. There is very little evidence that these Scottish values

you talk about actually exist? speak to people across the country

and they want a welfare system that is fairer, protect the vulnerable

and tells people into work. would like one that is unfair and

stops people working? ! You think your report is just wrong when it

says this? ! I am telling you what I hear when I speak to people, we need

to do what we think is right, we need to support a growing economy in

the welfare system. A lot of the well first spend is on people that

are in jobs, working hard but on a low income. We need to support

people into work and into work that pays them a good pay for a good day

's work. One criticism on the IDS welfare reforms is that they focus

on people that are not elderly, whereas half of the welfare budget

is taken up by benefits to the elderly, and that is unfair, it is

only because elderly people tend to vote and you Duncan Smith hopes they

vote Conservative. You have a chance to change that with the new vision,

so would you change this benefit to finance an equal society? We should

stop presenting the ageing population as a problem, it is good

that people are living longer, the way that you finance them in the old

age is that you have to finance people into decent paid jobs so we

have the growing economy with more people contributing and can

contribute to people in old age. you accelerated the age of

eligibility for the state pension, you would save a knack salute

fortune and you could use that money to claim on what you want to do. --

save an absolute fortune. We need to make sure we have a faster economy

with people working and contributing to this economy. Nicola Sturgeon,

thank you. We are joined by Nicola McEwan, the

director of public policy at the Academy of Government at Edinburgh

University. Clearly, Nicola Sturgeon and her colleagues would like to see

this as a crucial part of the debate on independence, a game change, do

you think it could be, in your view? It is difficult. It is

interesting the way the issue has become a key feature in the

referendum campaign, this welfare issue, against the backdrop of

welfare reforms in the UK government, it is more difficult to

argue when the emphasis was about continuity today and continuity of

shared service delivery. It is not unreasonable for the SNP to say we

will do this for a few years, obviously, there has to be a

transition period, but this is our vision and our vision is what ever.

Indeed, we need to know what the vision is, because the emphasis has

to be on the transitional period. The Deputy first Minister is right

to say that the system would be inherited, we would not start with a

blank sheet of paper, so there would be lots of continuity ins to the

medium and long-term, but it is not clear what this distinctive welfare

state would look like. You are right that a lot of the emphasis has been

on preserving certain things that have existed until now. That is very

similar to the rhetoric we heard in the home rule movement in the 1990s.

I think there has been perhaps increasingly audible mutterings for

some people on the yes campaign side of, come on, give us a bit of

something radical, a bit of a vision, rather than be independent,

you will hardly notice? ! Where they are coming from is that you want to

minimise the sense of risk and some of the continuity can do this. There

is a need to capture the imagination as well will stop I do not think

that as the opinion polls suggest, there is nothing close to a majority

of independence, there is a lot of uncertainty and some people

undecided and on certain of the consequences. Without spelling out a

clearer vision of what it might look like and how it might be better, it

would be difficult to see that shifting. The other difficulty for

the Scottish government, as John Curtis explained, there might be a

slight difficult issue with attitudes towards welfare in

Scotland, it is not a big difference, but the really striking

thing, is that in previous recessions, people tend to become

more sympathetic towards people on benefits and this time, the opposite

is happening, and it is happening right across the UK. This is the

finding of the social attitude surveys, but it would be

exaggerating to assume that there are always big differences between

Scottish and English attitude, even in the context of the Thatcher years

with the social democratic nationalism of the home rule

movement, there was some convergence across the UK. At what is different

in Scotland is the political channels that express a social

democratic view, by and large, so you do not have the kind of

political elite as you have at the UK level that emphasises welfare in

trenchant as an independent issue. You were saying a lot of Scottish

people might agree with Iain Duncan Smith and the coalition government

but have no way to express that in the context, well I suppose they

can, with the Conservatives. Perhaps, but what I am trying to say

is that it is a mistake to separate out public opinion and public values

from the political expression of those values, and you need to look

at them both in tandem. Thank you, protest in Istanbul on the front

page of the Guardian. That is it from us, we're back to morrow night,

compared to last night. It will be humoured on Wednesday, but a lot of

cloud again. Some sunny spells and eastern Scotland. -- it will be

humid on Wednesday. Sunny spells across Northern Ireland. A wet start

for northern Scotland, but try by the afternoon. Sunny spells in the

central belt, cloud returning in the evening. Mostly grey across the

north-east of England. We could hit 20 degrees in some places with some

sunshine. Most places, temperatures in the mid-teens and rain will

return to southern areas during the day. Turning increasingly windy with

the wind picking up across South Wales and south-west England,

especially during Wednesday night and Thursday. Thursday will be

blustery with some sunny spells will stop some showery rain across the

northern half of the UK. Some more sunshine on Thursday. A fresher feel

with temperatures being a bit down and not quite so humid. Strong winds