Browse content similar to 20/06/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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forget. But if they spend a moment taking pictures, what is it exactly | :00:03. | :00:13. | |
:00:13. | :00:17. | ||
that they will remember? Welcome to Newsnight Scotland for our | :00:17. | :00:23. | |
by-election special. Voters in Aberdeen Donside have been to vote | :00:23. | :00:29. | |
for the new MSP. The count is underway and we are only to bring | :00:29. | :00:35. | |
you live coverage of the result it comes. This is the scene where the | :00:35. | :00:42. | |
votes are stacking up. Here in Glasgow, we will have commentary | :00:42. | :00:50. | |
from cross panel of politicians and from our resident experts, Brian | :00:50. | :00:59. | |
Taylor. The SNP are defending a pretty big majority but when the | :00:59. | :01:03. | |
Scottish Parliament was first established, this part of Aberdeen | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
voted Labour. Tonight should be good. Next to you, politics | :01:08. | :01:14. | |
Professor John Curtice. We should not assume it will be an easy night | :01:14. | :01:20. | |
for the SNP. We should remember that governments usually do badly in | :01:20. | :01:28. | |
by-elections in the crucial question is how badly they could suffer. | :01:28. | :01:32. | |
by-election was called following the death of Brian Adam. They are hoping | :01:32. | :01:38. | |
to hold the seat and labour is hoping to reduce if not overcome the | :01:38. | :01:48. | |
:01:48. | :01:52. | ||
SNP's majority. Reporting from the count, our political correspondent. | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
It has been a long campaign and the boxes have started to arrive with | :01:57. | :02:02. | |
the counting well underway. Everyone involved and this should know where | :02:02. | :02:11. | |
they stand by 2am. That's the hours away! A lot of talking to do between | :02:11. | :02:20. | |
now and then. More from Aberdeen soon but first of all, let me | :02:20. | :02:26. | |
introduce our panel. They are the Conservative MP David McDowell, who | :02:26. | :02:34. | |
is the party chairman in Scotland. The Scottish National party, Glasgow | :02:34. | :02:43. | |
SNP. Scottish Labour's representative is a Lothians MSP and | :02:43. | :02:49. | |
for the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Liam McArthur, who is the MSP for | :02:49. | :02:58. | |
me. -- Orkney. Labour are the challengers here, what are you | :02:58. | :03:05. | |
hearing? Nobody wants this, it is very sad indeed under the | :03:05. | :03:14. | |
circumstances. 50% of the vote is the big figure I am looking for. You | :03:14. | :03:20. | |
are not expecting to make enough progress to overtime revote? They | :03:20. | :03:26. | |
have a majority of 7000 year, one of the biggest in the Scottish | :03:26. | :03:31. | |
Parliament. It would be a huge effort to travel that over. How big | :03:31. | :03:38. | |
Enoch do you think they will take? From the first opening remarks, it | :03:38. | :03:46. | |
is a sad occasion and people will be thinking of Brian Adam at this | :03:46. | :03:50. | |
election but it has a remarkable lack of ambition shown there. The | :03:50. | :03:56. | |
fact the SNP is and with a shout of retaining its seat six years in to | :03:56. | :04:02. | |
government, midterm on a second term shows how remarkable the team and | :04:02. | :04:08. | |
the vision have been for Scotland. Actually, we have shown in the past | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
that when it comes to by-elections against governing parties, we have | :04:13. | :04:20. | |
achieved swings of 22% and over. A much more modest swing is required | :04:20. | :04:28. | |
by Labour to take that seat. We will be looking to hold onto that. Should | :04:28. | :04:34. | |
you not be able to beat the SNP six years then? This is the SNP's | :04:34. | :04:41. | |
heartland with a 7000 majority which is huge. It would take a 16% swing | :04:41. | :04:48. | |
to bring it back into labour's hands. He has put everything he | :04:48. | :04:54. | |
possibly could and this. That is how important it is to the SNP. Let's | :04:54. | :05:01. | |
bring in the Conservatives. Eat or the last time. What would you | :05:01. | :05:11. | |
:05:11. | :05:12. | ||
consider adding inevitable result? -- a poor third. We have fought a | :05:12. | :05:15. | |
positive campaign with the young and positive candidates to put our | :05:15. | :05:21. | |
message over. I am not anticipating a Conservative gain the same. | :05:21. | :05:28. | |
Really! We got 4% of the vote on the council elections and do not even | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
have a counsellor with the constituency. We just wanted to put | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
out a positive message to show we are out and about and they think | :05:38. | :05:44. | |
Ross Thomson did an excellent job on that. It is very sad, the loss of | :05:44. | :05:49. | |
Brian Adam, and I knew him very well back in the Scottish Parliament in | :05:49. | :05:57. | |
1989 and he is one of the people who shoot Scottish politics. The Liberal | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
Democrats starting from fourth position. Facing a challenge from | :06:01. | :06:08. | |
UKIP. They have set their sights on making some sort of breakthrough in | :06:08. | :06:16. | |
Scottish politics. Any chance they could beat you to fourth place? | :06:16. | :06:20. | |
Three hours away from the result, I am not privy to any advance | :06:20. | :06:26. | |
knowledge of how it is likely to unfold, but I would like to add my | :06:26. | :06:34. | |
voice to the comments from all the panellists about Brian Adam. The | :06:34. | :06:39. | |
respect towards and was exemplified by the tributes paid to him and he | :06:39. | :06:44. | |
was always a source of sound advice and good counsel. NK is of the | :06:44. | :06:54. | |
:06:54. | :06:56. | ||
campaign, and very energetic campaign has been fought. I am not | :06:56. | :07:01. | |
expecting any great surprises but the campaign has been good in terms | :07:01. | :07:08. | |
of energising our supporter base. We will see what happens but I think | :07:08. | :07:13. | |
she has to be commended on fighting an excellent campaign. We will let | :07:13. | :07:16. | |
you rest your voices for rabbits because you may have a lot of | :07:16. | :07:25. | |
talking to do and we can go live to Aberdeen. We can talk to him now. | :07:25. | :07:32. | |
What is the latest, Stephen? A lot of poker faces on show at the | :07:32. | :07:38. | |
moment. They have been counting the votes for an hour or so. The | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
election agents are aware and we are trying to get a sense of what is | :07:43. | :07:50. | |
going on. I mention that already the rumours are starting to fly. The | :07:50. | :07:56. | |
first remark is of a low turnout so people are talking of our turnout | :07:56. | :08:00. | |
below 40%. It could be some time before we get any confirmation but | :08:00. | :08:05. | |
as we said, nobody giving much away so far and we are expecting that the | :08:05. | :08:11. | |
declaration could go between one a.m. And 2am, at the latest. | :08:11. | :08:17. | |
Everyone then here's hoping it comes earlier than that but the | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
confirmation will come and we should get a sense over the next hour of | :08:21. | :08:28. | |
how things are starting to unfold. Perhaps you can concern to us when | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
it comes in the turnout. What are you hearing from the different | :08:33. | :08:40. | |
camps? Labour are expecting to make some progress but not to win the | :08:41. | :08:48. | |
seat. The SNP are confident, as that's reflected in the code itself? | :08:48. | :08:57. | |
-- code. What has been said so far is that the theme is local issues, | :08:57. | :09:04. | |
not national issues. People are looking at this interested in how | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
the referendum will factor alone, but it seems very much this has been | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
a campaign fought on local issues. We have heard all week particularly | :09:12. | :09:19. | |
about the transport issue and it has been characterised as a by-election | :09:19. | :09:24. | |
about a roundabout. Some say that is unfair but certainly the transport | :09:24. | :09:27. | |
issues are of huge concern here. They have other concerns which | :09:28. | :09:33. | |
school closures and of course the level of funding that Aberdeen is | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
receiving. They are concerned with those sorts of things and the | :09:37. | :09:43. | |
feeling seems to be, that the SNP will hold onto the seat but what | :09:43. | :09:49. | |
will be interesting is to see the numbers and to see whether the 7000 | :09:49. | :09:59. | |
:09:59. | :10:02. | ||
majority last time, whether or not the numbers change quickly. We will | :10:02. | :10:10. | |
be back at the count later. We will also hear from Brian and John. There | :10:10. | :10:15. | |
is plenty of time to talk about the haudagain roundabout, it has been | :10:15. | :10:22. | |
more about the roundabout than the ends and outs of the Independence | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
debate but today William Hague came to Edinburgh and warned of the very | :10:25. | :10:33. | |
serious problems he thinks an independent Scotland would face in | :10:33. | :10:42. | |
joining the EU and NATO. We will discuss that in a moment. | :10:42. | :10:46. | |
Identity is at the centre of the Independence debate. It will be a | :10:46. | :10:52. | |
vote on how Scotland sees its place in the world. Will that be a small | :10:52. | :10:58. | |
but confident country making decisions in its own interest or | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
part of the United Kingdom sharing in the risks and rewards of being in | :11:03. | :11:13. | |
:11:13. | :11:13. | ||
one of the world's most successful economies. As problems in Syria | :11:13. | :11:16. | |
reached on William Hague was in Edinburgh to speak about the latter | :11:16. | :11:25. | |
of the two arguments. We also had to think about how we appear to others. | :11:25. | :11:30. | |
Travelling from Afghanistan to Brazil, Canada to Australia, I am | :11:30. | :11:36. | |
baffled that anyone would try to break up a union that has been so | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
resilient, so successful and so admired in the world as I will -- as | :11:39. | :11:47. | |
ours. When outsiders look at the United Kingdom they see one of the | :11:47. | :11:51. | |
world's most successful examples of economic develop and, diplomatic | :11:51. | :11:56. | |
influence, and democracy. They speak about our institutions, our legal | :11:56. | :12:04. | |
systems and ourselves will service -- and our civil service. They look | :12:04. | :12:08. | |
at our language, sport and tradition... And William Hague said | :12:08. | :12:13. | |
there was another important reason to keep the union. Our world is | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
becoming more dangerous, our continued security depends on | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
defending our security ourselves, that includes our nuclear dependent | :12:22. | :12:30. | |
-- our nuclear deterrent. An independent Scotland would not be | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
able to replicate our abilities. The cost of creating new capabilities | :12:34. | :12:41. | |
would create an enormous burden on the Scottish taxpayer, it would take | :12:41. | :12:51. | |
:12:51. | :12:53. | ||
years to build up the qualified personnel needed and Scotland would | :12:53. | :12:59. | |
lose the benefit of having some of the most impressive services in the | :12:59. | :13:05. | |
world. But some are not convinced it will get through to the everyday | :13:05. | :13:12. | |
person on the street. If you are a politician, you will not be at the | :13:12. | :13:17. | |
UN Security Council if you represent a independent Scotland or at the G8 | :13:17. | :13:22. | |
and set with world leaders. But well that Marilyn -- will that matter to | :13:22. | :13:29. | |
the average voters? Does it really matter to the average Scottish | :13:29. | :13:35. | |
person on the street whether we have a G8 member or someone on the UN | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
Security Council. People are more sick cure -- people are more | :13:40. | :13:47. | |
concerned about their jobs. When it comes to winning the argument on | :13:47. | :13:55. | |
foreign affairs the SNP is wanting to play on the controversial | :13:55. | :14:02. | |
decisions made by the Westminster Government in Scotland's name. There | :14:02. | :14:07. | |
was a call for the impeachment of Tony Blair on war crimes recently. | :14:07. | :14:14. | |
And years of protest at Faslane, they say, shows that Scotland needs | :14:14. | :14:20. | |
the power to remove it from the Clyde. But when getting the argument | :14:20. | :14:25. | |
across to the SNP encounter the same problems as their opponents? Some | :14:25. | :14:32. | |
are already mobilised to vote yes, the difficult problem for the yes | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
campaign is looking at those in the middle who do not really mind about | :14:36. | :14:43. | |
foreign policy. Most people tend to be in the middle. The yes campaign | :14:43. | :14:47. | |
already has a lot of people who were angry about the Iraq war and about | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
nuclear weapons, they have to broaden the base, they have to get | :14:52. | :14:58. | |
above the one third that seems to be backing them. Get the men who are on | :14:58. | :15:06. | |
the street who may not have views on foreign policy but is not very | :15:06. | :15:11. | |
ideological lead driven, in that sense, it is a very difficult road | :15:11. | :15:19. | |
to run, they have two look at both sides. And the SNP has had its own | :15:19. | :15:23. | |
difficulties in foreign policy, they have been accused of making | :15:23. | :15:30. | |
assertions over automatic EU membership in independence. 75% of | :15:30. | :15:40. | |
:15:40. | :15:41. | ||
respondents said they would wish an independent Scotland to remain... | :15:41. | :15:45. | |
And ending opposition to NATO membership in the SNP left deep | :15:45. | :15:51. | |
divisions. Angus Robertson says that the SNP is making sensible decisions | :15:51. | :15:57. | |
on foreign policy well the Government is scaremongering. | :15:57. | :16:00. | |
countries make decisions on their own behalf and represent themselves | :16:00. | :16:07. | |
internationally, that is one of the great pools of Scottish | :16:07. | :16:10. | |
independence, that we can speak with our own voice and not be represented | :16:10. | :16:16. | |
by parties that we did not even elect in Government. I would rather | :16:16. | :16:21. | |
we work directly represented in the EU and spoke up for the things that | :16:21. | :16:30. | |
mattered. Not have ourselves committed to illegal wars. The | :16:30. | :16:34. | |
advantage of Independence is that we are directly represented in the | :16:34. | :16:36. | |
world rather than being misrepresented by a Government we | :16:36. | :16:43. | |
did not elect. Foreign policy arguments advanced by both sides | :16:43. | :16:47. | |
today we have heard before and will hear again. But did the voters take | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
notice? We will pick this up with our | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
politicians in a moment. Both Brian and John were at the speech in | :16:57. | :17:03. | |
Edinburgh today. What did you think? I thought he was rehearsing | :17:03. | :17:08. | |
or rehashing, or setting out perhaps, the arguments on the | :17:08. | :17:12. | |
foreign affairs issue, stressing in his view that it would be difficult | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
for Scotland to gain membership of the European Union, making the same | :17:17. | :17:26. | |
point in a media briefing in regards to Natal later. At that media | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
briefing we were inclined to press about the UK Government perspective. | :17:29. | :17:37. | |
-- NATO. We asked if he meant that there would be a threat to our | :17:37. | :17:42. | |
membership of the UN Security Council. He said absolutely not. He | :17:42. | :17:47. | |
said it would be a continuing UK continuing to inherit is that the UK | :17:47. | :17:54. | |
has the world. The select committee has warned... That is certainly | :17:54. | :18:01. | |
contentious issue. William Hague was of the view that the rest of the UK | :18:01. | :18:07. | |
would be the continuing state and inherit the status that the rest of | :18:07. | :18:16. | |
the UK has ended -- has in the European Union. He did not look at | :18:16. | :18:25. | |
what Scotland could gain from the membership. He said that Scotland | :18:25. | :18:30. | |
game from being part of the cloud that the UK delivers. It is back to | :18:30. | :18:35. | |
an argument that is familiar from the time that we discussed the big | :18:35. | :18:40. | |
stick, the UK has a big stick that is always wielded in the interest of | :18:40. | :18:44. | |
the whole of the UK, and that is the interests of Scotland, by the always | :18:45. | :18:49. | |
coterminous? Are they always benefiting from the use of the stick | :18:49. | :18:58. | |
or is the big stick back home in a covered? -- in a covered? You were | :18:58. | :19:04. | |
also there. I wonder if you can tackle a question that the historian | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
in the film posed. Does this matter to the Auden -- to the ordinary | :19:09. | :19:14. | |
Scottish voter? It matters somewhat but not with the debt of the | :19:14. | :19:20. | |
argument that the Foreign Secretary gave. Not many people will follow | :19:20. | :19:25. | |
that. It certainly judges by the criteria of whether people think | :19:25. | :19:28. | |
that Scotland would have a stronger or weaker boys in the world than it | :19:28. | :19:36. | |
does now. It clearly isn't as important an issue for voters as the | :19:36. | :19:46. | |
:19:46. | :19:48. | ||
economy is. It is more clearly related to whether we will be more | :19:48. | :19:55. | |
at or less of an equal society. The argument is that Scotland will have | :19:55. | :20:01. | |
a stronger voice, is it an argument that the yes wide -- the yes side | :20:01. | :20:07. | |
are winning? They say that they think that Scotland would have a | :20:07. | :20:11. | |
stronger voice in the world, far fewer think that it would have a | :20:11. | :20:18. | |
weaker voice. It is one of the stronger parts of the yes side. It | :20:18. | :20:22. | |
is a stronger hard for them than the issue of the economy. But at the end | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
of the day, the economy is still more of an important issue for | :20:26. | :20:36. | |
:20:36. | :20:36. | ||
voters. June it was intriguing also that the Foreign Secretary was | :20:36. | :20:43. | |
reluctant to flesh at that point, the diminished status of the rest of | :20:43. | :20:48. | |
the UK, because he is then seeing that one of the things worries us is | :20:48. | :20:51. | |
a challenge from the Russians or some other nation that has always | :20:51. | :20:58. | |
been jealous of Britain's permanent membership... He was reluctant to go | :20:58. | :21:03. | |
down that route because either he thinks that the case or he could | :21:03. | :21:11. | |
then be seen as pursuing a selfish agenda. It is worth saying that | :21:11. | :21:17. | |
William Hague's speech exemplified one of the potential problems | :21:17. | :21:23. | |
because as soon as you start talking about how wonderful Britain is, you | :21:23. | :21:27. | |
may or may not think that is through but you have to be denying that the | :21:27. | :21:31. | |
people of Scotland are very narrowly thinking about what is and their own | :21:31. | :21:36. | |
interests. The Hundred years of British history may not be as | :21:36. | :21:41. | |
crucial as the perspective of what the union could deliver for Britain | :21:41. | :21:51. | |
:21:51. | :21:55. | ||
in future. Did you watch this speech? Did you go along? I spent my | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
day in useful activity in Aberdeen. When it comes to William Hague, I | :22:00. | :22:06. | |
have seen his predictions before, in the days before devolution, when he | :22:06. | :22:12. | |
said we would be weaker as a country under devolution. Over time, he has | :22:12. | :22:18. | |
been shown to be lacking. He showed the bold as brass neck I have seen | :22:18. | :22:24. | |
for quite a while in regards to the EU. The senior members of the | :22:24. | :22:31. | |
Conservative Government are completely spot on the issue. | :22:31. | :22:35. | |
they not promising after the next general election to hold a | :22:35. | :22:41. | |
referendum having been negotiated the terms of membership? That's as | :22:41. | :22:46. | |
many somersaults as I have seen in question. Philip Hammond and Michael | :22:46. | :22:54. | |
Gove are all over the place when it comes to the issue. Scotland at the | :22:54. | :23:00. | |
moment does not contribute in terms of the voice of the UK. We are not | :23:00. | :23:04. | |
asked or consulted when it comes to decisions that are made in the UN | :23:04. | :23:10. | |
security council. I have been new Minister for external affairs for | :23:10. | :23:14. | |
nine months and William Hague has not spoken to me to ask what the | :23:14. | :23:19. | |
Scottish government thinks on these issues. When we do have differences | :23:19. | :23:29. | |
:23:29. | :23:29. | ||
of opinion, such as that the UN vote on Palestine. The UK decided to | :23:29. | :23:33. | |
abstain in Scotland said we would vote for that in line with the | :23:33. | :23:41. | |
majority of international opinion. That is well out with your remix. | :23:41. | :23:51. | |
Scotland has a voice. We very legitimately have a voice. The UK | :23:51. | :23:59. | |
government should absolutely take note of that and they do not. | :23:59. | :24:03. | |
with those complaints first of all then back to some of the substance | :24:03. | :24:11. | |
of William Hague's speech. I think they are complete nonsense. I do | :24:11. | :24:16. | |
except what he does not except which is that foreign affairs as a | :24:16. | :24:21. | |
reserved matters all that is the responsibility of Westminster. We | :24:21. | :24:26. | |
have Scottish MPs at Westminster who make their voices known on this. | :24:26. | :24:33. | |
Many have prominent roles such as Malcolm Bruce. Scotland's voice is | :24:33. | :24:40. | |
heard on these issues and the Scottish Parliament has a dream. I | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
was at a meeting earlier this week with Fiona Hyslop about the issues | :24:43. | :24:50. | |
in relation to Europe, and the forthcoming European Council. It is | :24:50. | :24:56. | |
not the case at all that the UK government does not listen to the | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
default administrations. We are working closely with them. His | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
problem is that when he does not agree with our decision, he cannot | :25:04. | :25:09. | |
accept that. That is the basis of the discussions. We are listening | :25:09. | :25:15. | |
and trying to work on the basis of the devolved settlements and I think | :25:15. | :25:21. | |
it is working pretty well. When you take the noise of independence out | :25:21. | :25:29. | |
of the picture, they are never good day to day working relationship. | :25:29. | :25:32. | |
does not work well because it is not about my voice but about the | :25:32. | :25:41. | |
Scottish voice, and the arrack war was a good example. We had a voice | :25:41. | :25:48. | |
that was very different in terms of the UK government. Scottish sons and | :25:48. | :25:53. | |
daughters were sent out and killed. We then found out that was based on | :25:53. | :25:57. | |
a lie. We are the voice differentiates we should absolutely | :25:57. | :26:03. | |
have a voice. The fact that one MP cheer of the select committee is not | :26:03. | :26:13. | |
:26:13. | :26:13. | ||
Scotland's voice! Let me make this final point. William Hague, I was | :26:13. | :26:18. | |
not surprised he did not touch on the point that the vast majority of | :26:18. | :26:27. | |
Scots do not want nuclear weapons on the soil. These are important issues | :26:27. | :26:31. | |
in the final point that John Curtis made was that when it comes to | :26:31. | :26:37. | |
international affairs and defence, time and again the majority of Scots | :26:37. | :26:43. | |
want the Scottish Parliament to have a voice on that issue. I certainly | :26:43. | :26:48. | |
do not accept that polls indicate Scots want the Scottish government | :26:48. | :26:55. | |
running the defence of Scotland. All the polling is quite clear that | :26:55. | :26:58. | |
people understand the benefits of the United Kingdom from that point | :26:58. | :27:08. | |
:27:08. | :27:11. | ||
of view. We actually don't have a vote in the Scottish Parliament on | :27:11. | :27:16. | |
the Iraq war and the Scottish government expressed its view but | :27:16. | :27:22. | |
they are not responsible for these matters. The referendum will mean | :27:22. | :27:27. | |
the Scottish people can determine this. My view there is very much to | :27:27. | :27:32. | |
that of William Hague's. Scotland stands taller than FoxPro that is | :27:32. | :27:39. | |
part of the United Kingdom. Is this really about what is best for | :27:39. | :27:46. | |
Scotland or is William Hague arguing what is best for the UK? Is usually | :27:46. | :27:56. | |
worried about the UK and using its status and influence? What he is | :27:56. | :27:59. | |
arguing is that what is best for Scotland and for Britain is the | :27:59. | :28:03. | |
same. We want to stay united and part of the United Kingdom because | :28:03. | :28:09. | |
we have a strong voice... Do you agree with the foreign affairs | :28:09. | :28:13. | |
committee that said in the event of independence, the UN security | :28:13. | :28:21. | |
council rule may be called into question? I will put it in context. | :28:21. | :28:27. | |
Nothing will be the same after a yes vote in the referendum. We have seen | :28:27. | :28:30. | |
over the course of the past few months and attempt to characterise | :28:30. | :28:37. | |
the vote as only the things you do not click will change, but there | :28:37. | :28:42. | |
will be significant change. It will not be possible to predict what will | :28:42. | :28:48. | |
happen on a whole number of things. Is that not a difficulty for you | :28:48. | :28:51. | |
because William Hague argues you have had difficulty securing | :28:51. | :28:57. | |
independent membership of the EU and NATO. You cannot prove that is not | :28:57. | :29:07. | |
the case. If you look at the alone report, the EU transition, it was | :29:07. | :29:14. | |
the alone independent adviser, the UK Government's, who said the | :29:14. | :29:21. | |
timetable put for what... That is about the nature of the deal you | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
would get and does not discount the possibility you would have a wrangle | :29:26. | :29:31. | |
on your hands in order to sort out the terms of Scottish membership. | :29:31. | :29:39. | |
Having set a timetable, you do not have much room for manoeuvre. | :29:39. | :29:44. | |
quite an incredible argument that an oil-rich, sufficiently rich Scotland | :29:44. | :29:48. | |
that has been part of the EU for 40 years could not continue its | :29:48. | :29:57. | |
membership. When it comes to William Hague, is he arguing for the benefit | :29:57. | :30:05. | |
of Scotland are for the UK's position? It is for the UK and not | :30:05. | :30:10. | |
just for the security council but over how many MEPs the UK will have | :30:10. | :30:18. | |
and its influence and Clwyd in the European Union. That is the | :30:18. | :30:22. | |
contradiction at the heart of the no campaign that Scotland will be to | :30:22. | :30:31. | |
Luanda week, but actually we are desperate to hold on to you. That is | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
the ridiculous argument that only those voting in the yes campaign | :30:34. | :30:43. | |
ever bring up. William Hague made very clear Scotland could be | :30:43. | :30:47. | |
independent and I make it clear they could be, but I question whether it | :30:47. | :30:55. | |
would be better. I do not think that case has been made. I am sure during | :30:55. | :30:59. | |
the course of the programme we will return to their sand and even expand | :30:59. | :31:04. | |
on the discussion. We will leave it there for the moment, let's get some | :31:04. | :31:14. | |
:31:14. | :31:21. | ||
more from Stephen Gordon. Is there an update? It is a slow process and | :31:21. | :31:25. | |
moving slowly but all 52 of the boxers have now arrived from all | :31:25. | :31:31. | |
over the constituency in the counting is well underway. Still too | :31:31. | :31:35. | |
early to make any predictions but certainly people are taking plenty | :31:35. | :31:41. | |
of interest on all sides of the whole. I would say, there are lot of | :31:41. | :31:45. | |
poker faces with nobody giving too much away about how things appears | :31:45. | :31:52. | |
to be up. Plenty of interest at this stage in the timeout. They were a | :31:52. | :31:59. | |
lot of rumours flying about with some Google putting it in the 30% | :31:59. | :32:05. | |
region but others at about 50%. What I can say is that was a decent day | :32:05. | :32:08. | |
in Aberdeen with a lovely evening so plenty of chances for people to go | :32:08. | :32:15. | |
out. The perfect opportunity but we will have to see how that works and | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
indeed whose favourite will turn out to be ended. | :32:20. | :32:28. | |
Let's take a quick look at the front pages of tomorrow. The Scotsman has | :32:28. | :32:33. | |
a picture of the Queen looking delighted having one, not | :32:33. | :32:42. | |
personally, but her horse winning the Gold cup at Royal Ascot. The | :32:42. | :32:45. | |
headline there is about Kenny McAskill angling judges in a Scots | :32:45. | :32:55. | |
:32:55. | :32:59. | ||
law shake-up. They are planning to abolish corroboration. -- angering. | :32:59. | :33:04. | |
Those plans will be formally laid before Parliament tomorrow. The | :33:04. | :33:07. | |
front page of the Daily Mail features the Queen and the Gold cup | :33:07. | :33:17. | |
:33:17. | :33:21. | ||
again. The main story is on the main story is only kidnapped teacher, the | :33:21. | :33:29. | |
teacher convicted of kidnapping a 15-year-old pupil and you'll bring | :33:29. | :33:37. | |
-- eloping to France together. They are still a couple according to this | :33:37. | :33:47. | |
:33:47. | :33:53. | ||
story. The Independent, I will, round, dark continent. Full stop | :33:53. | :34:01. | |
this is the story about the Care Quality Commission in England which | :34:01. | :34:04. | |
has under very controversial circumstances said that former | :34:04. | :34:11. | |
bosses at the commission sought to suppress a report criticising the | :34:11. | :34:17. | |
way in which the commission itself had handled the controversy over | :34:17. | :34:22. | |
hospital care in Cumbria. We also have the daily Telegraph wheel again | :34:22. | :34:32. | |
:34:32. | :34:33. | ||
the Queen is smiling at Ascot. The main headline is about the NHS and | :34:33. | :34:38. | |
the price racket, a Telegraph investigation. They have the William | :34:38. | :34:44. | |
Hague speech in the bottom left-hand corner. And according to the | :34:44. | :34:53. | |
Telegraph, two day is the happiest day of the year. After a bitterly | :34:53. | :34:58. | |
cold Spring and months of economic gloom, it appears Britain is finally | :34:58. | :35:01. | |
feeling some optimism when approaching holidays in the hope | :35:01. | :35:06. | |
that Andy Murray will when Wimbledon, meaning today is the | :35:06. | :35:16. | |
:35:16. | :35:17. | ||
happiest day of the year. Wee will find a happy hour panellists are | :35:17. | :35:27. | |
:35:27. | :35:28. | ||
after midnight. -- we will find out how happy. | :35:28. | :35:31. | |
Of course the by-election was called following the death of the previous | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
MSP, Brian Adam, following his battle with cancer. He had held the | :35:34. | :35:37. | |
seat for the Scottish National Party since 2003 when it was known as | :35:38. | :35:40. | |
Aberdeen North. The by-election is being contested by nine candidates. | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
And as Steven Duff reports, despite the fact that this is an election | :35:43. | :35:46. | |
for the Scottish Parliament, it has been a campaign dominated very much | :35:46. | :35:56. | |
:35:56. | :36:01. | ||
by local and not national issues. Brian Adam being elected for the | :36:01. | :36:07. | |
first time as an MSP in 2003, he was popular in his constituency and in | :36:07. | :36:15. | |
Holyrood, his death was mourned by politicians of all parties, it was a | :36:15. | :36:25. | |
:36:25. | :36:30. | ||
by-election that nobody wanted. The housing estates of lobar -- of | :36:30. | :36:39. | |
Labour strongholds, at one time. am proud to be the first Nationalist | :36:39. | :36:49. | |
MSP for Aberdeen. Many believed that his personal popularity here was key | :36:49. | :36:59. | |
:36:59. | :37:01. | ||
in turning voters to the SNP. SNP candidate Mark McDonald resigned his | :37:01. | :37:11. | |
list seat at the Scottish Parliament to stand in the by-election. He has | :37:11. | :37:16. | |
faced claims from opponents that Aberdonians feel underfunded and | :37:16. | :37:21. | |
neglected from the Scottish Government. If you look at the | :37:21. | :37:25. | |
dental School and the new health constituent -- at the new health | :37:25. | :37:30. | |
centres within the constituency, and the new schools, then the word -- | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
then the work at the haudagain roundabout, there is money which we | :37:35. | :37:42. | |
think is benefiting the constituency from the Scottish Government. | :37:42. | :37:51. | |
Aberdeen is getting a good deal from the Scottish Government. In 2011 | :37:51. | :37:57. | |
Labour finished 7000 votes behind Brian Adam. Willie Young is the | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
finance convener of the council, he has had a rough ride during the | :38:02. | :38:09. | |
campaign. First for questioning the wisdom of the freeze on council tax | :38:09. | :38:14. | |
and the pressure on the Imrie school closures in the constituency. | :38:14. | :38:19. | |
your arm waving your SNP badge so I think you might be voting for them. | :38:19. | :38:28. | |
Yes. We have not had enough money from central Government, we have | :38:28. | :38:31. | |
been short changed, that is what has been happening. He promised that | :38:31. | :38:37. | |
there would be lower that the -- that we would not fall below, we are | :38:38. | :38:45. | |
short. On top of that, Aberdeen is the launch -- is the only local | :38:45. | :38:51. | |
authority that gives more money to Edinburgh than it gets back. | :38:51. | :38:55. | |
many reports of people talking about independence or next year's | :38:55. | :39:05. | |
referendum on the doorstep, but they have been talking about this... The | :39:05. | :39:10. | |
haddock and roundabout -- the haudagain roundabout at the heart of | :39:10. | :39:17. | |
the constituency. Every politician has promised to do something about | :39:17. | :39:22. | |
it for a very long time, the SNP says it well but not until the | :39:22. | :39:27. | |
Aberdeen bypass is built on that could be at Slate -- as late as | :39:27. | :39:36. | |
2018. We are a world energy help and the oil capital of Europe, we do | :39:36. | :39:41. | |
look at infrastructure and see the big concerns, we want to invest, and | :39:41. | :39:47. | |
the structure is not fit for purpose, we are getting things done, | :39:47. | :39:57. | |
:39:57. | :39:57. | ||
but we need to see commitment. Obviously we are not like the other | :39:57. | :40:03. | |
big parties, they see road-building is the effective solution to | :40:03. | :40:10. | |
congestion, we want to concentrate on public transport. The Liberal | :40:10. | :40:18. | |
Democrats once did well in the Donside suburbs but last year's | :40:18. | :40:21. | |
elections they were reduced to romp of councillors after sharing the | :40:21. | :40:28. | |
city council for more than a decade. Everyone has a record to defend, the | :40:28. | :40:32. | |
Labour Party on the council here, the SNP at the Scottish Government, | :40:32. | :40:37. | |
we have a record to defend at the Westminster Parliament, but through | :40:37. | :40:44. | |
all of that we have delivered here for more than 30 years, we have run | :40:44. | :40:48. | |
the council, we have delivered schools. We will stand up for the | :40:48. | :40:55. | |
people of Aberdeen. For other candidates gently placed their hats | :40:55. | :41:01. | |
into the campaign, UKIP among them, Nigel Farage had an unusually | :41:02. | :41:06. | |
laid-back visit to Scotland to support his candidate. The SNP has | :41:06. | :41:12. | |
been hot with the bookies since the start, it might disappoint some | :41:12. | :41:19. | |
politicos when it doesn't show clues before the big around -- before the | :41:19. | :41:28. | |
big referendum. Let us now go to Steven Godden in | :41:28. | :41:38. | |
:41:38. | :41:41. | ||
Aberdeen. I am joined by two local MSP 's. -- | :41:41. | :41:51. | |
:41:51. | :41:52. | ||
MSPs. Either any indications of how this might turn out? It has been a | :41:52. | :41:56. | |
hard-fought and marvellous campaign. Early indications are quite positive | :41:56. | :42:03. | |
but we will wait and see. Anything less than a convincing victory would | :42:03. | :42:11. | |
be a disappointment for you. Absolutely not. Brian Adam had 457 | :42:11. | :42:16. | |
when he first won the seat, anything above that would be good for our | :42:16. | :42:24. | |
candidate to build from. But we expected to be better than that. | :42:24. | :42:29. | |
have had a positive campaign. We have faced some negative campaigning | :42:29. | :42:34. | |
from the SNP which we were quite taken aback by, especially the | :42:34. | :42:39. | |
personal attacks. But we come with a strong and positive message for | :42:39. | :42:47. | |
Aberdeen. We are making a case for a change. The other interesting | :42:47. | :42:53. | |
respect has been seeing just how the SNP have avoided mentioning the | :42:53. | :42:57. | |
dreaded word of independence throughout the campaign. It is not a | :42:57. | :43:07. | |
surprise that Mark McDonald has conceded to the referendum. It gives | :43:07. | :43:16. | |
us a good indication. I think it will be closer this time. Can he | :43:16. | :43:26. | |
:43:26. | :43:31. | ||
win? Yes, he can. Support has grown. We take a tremendous and in our vote | :43:31. | :43:41. | |
:43:41. | :43:44. | ||
hopefully. -- increase. We will find out in an hour or two. Is this a | :43:45. | :43:54. | |
:43:55. | :43:55. | ||
sheet -- is this a seat that you should win? It is an ambition. We | :43:55. | :43:59. | |
want to bring an end to this SNP Government, they have wasted their | :43:59. | :44:08. | |
years. Many voters tell us that even those who voted SNP before do not | :44:08. | :44:14. | |
want to break up written and do not want a nationalist estate. -- to | :44:14. | :44:24. | |
:44:24. | :44:31. | ||
break up Britain. Why do not talking about independence? SNP canvassers | :44:31. | :44:35. | |
have asked the question about independence. We ask it every time | :44:35. | :44:40. | |
we are on our doorstep, that is absolutely not true. We have asked | :44:40. | :44:46. | |
voters what they think, well there are people who are undecided we have | :44:46. | :44:49. | |
had positive feedback from voters of various parties wanting | :44:49. | :44:54. | |
independence. Others are in leading convinced but are open to being | :44:54. | :45:00. | |
convinced. This is an election to replace my colleague Brian Adam, in | :45:00. | :45:05. | |
the mid-term, as has been said, Labour should be looking for a | :45:05. | :45:13. | |
victory, that is if they are going for a comeback, we do not link that | :45:13. | :45:20. | |
that is going to happen. We think we will win and win comfortably. | :45:20. | :45:27. | |
you not talking about it because people are uncomfortable with that? | :45:27. | :45:33. | |
We are talking about independence, that is what I'm saying. We hear | :45:33. | :45:40. | |
that it has been fought on local issues, why is that? Local issues | :45:40. | :45:44. | |
matter to the people of Donside. They are matters for the local | :45:44. | :45:50. | |
council and for a Scottish parliament. Local issues have been | :45:50. | :45:57. | |
brought to the fore, of course. is where you give it away, you have | :45:57. | :46:02. | |
talked about what local issues instead of talking about what the | :46:02. | :46:09. | |
Scottish parliament should be doing. I have looked through the literature | :46:09. | :46:15. | |
and I cannot find one piece of reference to independence in any of | :46:15. | :46:22. | |
the leaflets. It is not an election about independence, it is an | :46:22. | :46:28. | |
election to replace Brian Adam. We will get a chance to look at that | :46:28. | :46:37. | |
vote in 2014. How can an MSP from the SNP stands here and say it is | :46:37. | :46:44. | |
not about independence? You cannot have it both ways, you cannot say we | :46:44. | :46:46. | |
talk about independence all the time and then that we don't see enough | :46:46. | :46:52. | |
about it. You talk about us talking about it all the time and not | :46:52. | :46:58. | |
focusing on anything else, you cannot have it both ways! But you | :46:58. | :47:06. | |
did not mention it once! We do not vote -- we do not focus on it all | :47:06. | :47:11. | |
the time. Their programme is dominated by the referendum but when | :47:11. | :47:19. | |
it comes to this... Do not contradict yourself. They know as | :47:19. | :47:22. | |
well as we do that most voters do not want to break up the United | :47:22. | :47:31. | |
Kingdom. Think you need to wait till September 2014 to talk about that. | :47:31. | :47:36. | |
We are talking about the by-election. This is a campaign | :47:36. | :47:41. | |
about the issues that affect the people of Donside. We will see | :47:41. | :47:47. | |
whether opinion has shifted in Donside. I think we will see a shift | :47:47. | :47:54. | |
away from the SNP, I would be surprised indeed if parties standing | :47:54. | :48:01. | |
from an -- for independence achieved any great majority. Speaking to | :48:01. | :48:05. | |
people, what I have heard over and over again, is that these are issues | :48:05. | :48:09. | |
that have been here four years, transport concerns have been present | :48:09. | :48:14. | |
for a long time. People say that there has been a lot of talk and no | :48:14. | :48:18. | |
action. For both of you, what difference for your candidate make? | :48:18. | :48:26. | |
The haudagain roundabout. The legal challenge has been dealt with. We | :48:26. | :48:31. | |
are moving ahead and we have seen demolition of buildings along the | :48:31. | :48:37. | |
route, work is in process. We have said that the haudagain will be | :48:37. | :48:46. | |
dealt with. We cannot do both things because they would be chaos around | :48:46. | :48:53. | |
the haudagain. The key local issue has been the haudagain, the SNP will | :48:53. | :49:02. | |
not touch it for the next few years. We want to drive the haudagain | :49:02. | :49:12. | |
:49:12. | :49:14. | ||
project. Experts say that... What about the rest, they're expendable? | :49:14. | :49:17. | |
We're looking at agreements between the council the Government about | :49:17. | :49:23. | |
minor disruption during construction. That would be an | :49:23. | :49:32. | |
improvement them waiting five or six years. It would be a distraction. We | :49:32. | :49:37. | |
are only going to build the houses and how long would that take? | :49:37. | :49:41. | |
want a Labour MSP to make the case in the Scottish Parliament for the | :49:41. | :49:44. | |
Scottish Government to come forward, not only to put the money | :49:44. | :49:48. | |
in the investment in improving the haudagain but also to invest in that | :49:48. | :49:53. | |
housing to allow people to be rehoused. And the plans haven't come | :49:53. | :50:03. | |
:50:03. | :50:06. | ||
forward from the council. It is a shocking record. With the Liberal | :50:06. | :50:14. | |
Democrats and Labour administration it didn't. If they were serious, | :50:14. | :50:20. | |
they would not just bring it forward but find a way to ensure that the | :50:20. | :50:23. | |
tennants are rehoused into high quality property. They choose to | :50:23. | :50:28. | |
with hold that. Just as they choose not to even begin work on the | :50:28. | :50:34. | |
haudagain until 2018. That is a scandal and a disgrace. Many voters | :50:34. | :50:40. | |
told us how angry that they were, that the Government said that would | :50:40. | :50:45. | |
do it but not until 2018. On the issue of schools, you are | :50:45. | :50:49. | |
looking to merge schools, close schools. You have made this | :50:49. | :50:54. | |
difficult? There are consultations for two school mergers. Both in | :50:54. | :50:59. | |
Donside. The SNP candidates were complaining about this, they closed | :50:59. | :51:05. | |
four schools. We built ten schools in the whole of Aberdeen. He didn't | :51:05. | :51:11. | |
replace many schools. All of the four school schools which Mark | :51:11. | :51:18. | |
McDonald closed were not replaced. But pupils were put into new | :51:18. | :51:24. | |
schools. We have looked at new schools with a view to educational | :51:24. | :51:27. | |
benefits for the children. Without it, the children will not go forward | :51:27. | :51:32. | |
it is in contrast to the way that Mark McDonald took an axe to good | :51:32. | :51:37. | |
schools, even new schools, just to save money because of the financial | :51:37. | :51:42. | |
crisis. Ten schools were built between #20 | :51:42. | :51:48. | |
2007 and 2011 under the SNP administration and a Scottish SNP | :51:48. | :51:56. | |
Government. So, Lewis, nothing was built in yours. On housing, the SNP | :51:56. | :52:01. | |
is on target with its housing policy. The schools built in | :52:01. | :52:10. | |
Aberdeen were from money granted by a Labour/liberal government in | :52:10. | :52:17. | |
2003/2004. It was before the 2007 election. | :52:17. | :52:22. | |
Those models were no in -- not in place. | :52:22. | :52:27. | |
We are about to get an update. There is lots of passion here. It has been | :52:27. | :52:31. | |
a long campaign but the passions are running high. | :52:31. | :52:35. | |
Thank you very much, Steven. I'm not sure that they like each other! | :52:35. | :52:41. | |
love the set. It looks like a talent show. You expect the winner to come | :52:41. | :52:47. | |
out... Tonight, Matthew, I will be the MSP for Donside. Wonderful. | :52:47. | :52:52. | |
You have spent a bit of time in Aberdeen during the campaign, was it | :52:52. | :52:54. | |
the haudagain roundabout by-election? There is nothing wrong | :52:54. | :52:59. | |
with that. It is representing constituency issues and it is a huge | :52:59. | :53:03. | |
issue, it is not just the roundabout but the state of the transport. It | :53:03. | :53:07. | |
is the third Don crossing. It is all of the issues about the | :53:07. | :53:12. | |
infrastructure. It is more than that. I started my journalistic | :53:12. | :53:19. | |
career in the 80s in Aberdeen. I love the city, buttion can see | :53:19. | :53:23. | |
alongside the prosperity, the wealth, there is almost no | :53:23. | :53:28. | |
unemployment. Yet there is a sense of anxiety. A sense of insecurity. | :53:28. | :53:32. | |
Aberdeen wonders where it is going. It is a combination of the concerns | :53:32. | :53:39. | |
about the union Street, the Union Terrace Gardens re-development. The | :53:39. | :53:44. | |
issues on transport, infrastructure, the wonder, the concern that other | :53:44. | :53:52. | |
cities are overtalking it not in wealth -- overtaking it, not in | :53:52. | :53:59. | |
wealth but in dynamism. Even the City of Culture decision going to | :53:59. | :54:04. | |
Dundee it is not a sense of gloom, it really is not, how can it be when | :54:04. | :54:10. | |
the economy of the place is booming. It is a sense of disquiet, anxiety | :54:10. | :54:17. | |
and a wonder of what happens if the oil runs out. There is a real sense | :54:17. | :54:21. | |
of disquiet, alongside all of that prosperity. That is the conundrum. | :54:21. | :54:27. | |
That is what the haudagain roundabout represents. It is a Totem | :54:27. | :54:32. | |
for whether Aberdeen is being, late real, in this case, by-passed. | :54:32. | :54:35. | |
The Liberal Democrats argued that Aberdeen gets a raw deal from the | :54:35. | :54:39. | |
Scottish Government and from the UK Government too? I think in terms of | :54:39. | :54:43. | |
the raw deal from the Scottish Government it is clear in | :54:43. | :54:50. | |
legislation. We had assurances that a floor of 85% of funding to the | :54:50. | :54:57. | |
Government would be set. That nobody fall below that floor. Yet we have | :54:57. | :55:02. | |
seen Aberdeen fall below that floor to the tune of about �26 million. | :55:02. | :55:07. | |
Everyone will have their ideas about how to invest that �26 million, but | :55:07. | :55:12. | |
the obvious example, this comes back to Brian's point is in terms of not | :55:12. | :55:16. | |
just the haudagain roundabout but the transport infrastructure. There | :55:16. | :55:20. | |
is a contrast in terms of the success and the dynamism that is | :55:20. | :55:24. | |
there in the North East and in Aberdeen, but with an infrastructure | :55:24. | :55:28. | |
that is not able to sustain and support that. Therefore that plays | :55:29. | :55:34. | |
into the anxieties. But it isn't that as much the fault | :55:34. | :55:41. | |
of the Labour/liberal Democrat, executive of the past. Of | :55:41. | :55:45. | |
councillors, of all hues who have been in charge down the years of | :55:45. | :55:50. | |
Aberdeen? You can't point the finger at one? There have been concerns | :55:51. | :55:56. | |
over a period. I think what we saw was a series of bold claims and | :55:56. | :56:01. | |
promising from the commitments of the SNP in opposition. Indeed, into | :56:01. | :56:05. | |
government about what they would deliver for the North East. They | :56:05. | :56:10. | |
have fallen short of that. That was going to be coming back off | :56:10. | :56:16. | |
the doorsteps when I was there. As well as, I have to say, the issue of | :56:16. | :56:21. | |
independence. I think that Maureen Watt was right. You did not have to | :56:21. | :56:27. | |
have it on the leaf thes, it was coming off the doors spontaneously. | :56:27. | :56:31. | |
Whatever the success of the SNP in the North East, it was dramatic, | :56:31. | :56:36. | |
that was not a vote for independence. What we will see is | :56:36. | :56:41. | |
the slipping back of support for the SNP. Although Maureen's suggestion | :56:41. | :56:46. | |
that anything over 450 votes being a triumph for Mark McDonald took a | :56:46. | :56:50. | |
little bit of doubting. But the constitution did not catch | :56:50. | :56:54. | |
on as an issue in the by-election that is what it seemed when I was | :56:54. | :57:01. | |
there? It was not the SNP leaf thes it was not in there. That is clear | :57:01. | :57:05. | |
from the groups, from the conversations on the doorsteps that | :57:05. | :57:08. | |
independence is not popular. They did all they could not to talk about | :57:08. | :57:15. | |
When you saw or heard voxpops and people talking of what they regarded | :57:15. | :57:21. | |
as the issues, it did not seem to come up, did it? Or was it own when | :57:21. | :57:26. | |
you prompted that issue to be dealt with? It is clear from the time I | :57:26. | :57:29. | |
was in Aberdeen. A huge amount of people were undecided about how to | :57:30. | :57:34. | |
vote. That is to be the story of tonight. How the undecided voters | :57:34. | :57:39. | |
break. For them the independence was an issue. They did not want it. It | :57:39. | :57:45. | |
is the type of voter who looks to the SNP, they have not done a bad | :57:45. | :57:50. | |
job in government but I don't want independence, what do I do with the | :57:50. | :57:54. | |
vote? That is the biggest debate tonight. | :57:54. | :58:01. | |
Is it not an issue to make this part of the campaign when we know that | :58:01. | :58:07. | |
independence is part of this one way or the other? But this is about home | :58:07. | :58:13. | |
affairs, global affairs, the discussion we earlier is tant mount | :58:13. | :58:19. | |
to that. Had if I can tell you that the biggest thing in my inbox is | :58:20. | :58:24. | |
about global poverty and the Enough Food If campaign, we would not have | :58:24. | :58:28. | |
had a voice if we had been independent. Scotland would not have | :58:28. | :58:32. | |
been a part of the discussions around the table. Those are the | :58:32. | :58:36. | |
issues that people care about. That is what I take from the campaign. | :58:36. | :58:40. | |
That the SNP wanted to do anything about talking about independence on | :58:40. | :58:45. | |
the doorstep but it is all that they talk about in Holyrood. | :58:45. | :58:55. | |
:58:55. | :58:58. | ||
You did not mention this in the campaign, ous but -- Yousaf Raza | :58:58. | :59:04. | |
Gillani but what did you think? Well, there was phone can vansing | :59:04. | :59:08. | |
about independence, we put out a survey asking the question about | :59:08. | :59:14. | |
independence and the results of that were positive. 19,000 responses. A | :59:14. | :59:24. | |
:59:24. | :59:25. | ||
third of the Donside constituency. I'll give you the results of this. | :59:25. | :59:31. | |
29% want wanted the status quo. 34 for independence, 37% don't know. A | :59:31. | :59:35. | |
huge shift, actual', in regards to that. It is positive. The idea that | :59:36. | :59:39. | |
we don't talk about independence, I have given four examples. Labour | :59:39. | :59:44. | |
saying that they don't think it should be about independence but the | :59:44. | :59:48. | |
leaflet they put out today, was your chance to say "no" to separation. So | :59:48. | :59:53. | |
they are trying to make a verdict. Joanne Lamont, don't forget, when it | :59:53. | :59:59. | |
comes to the election, this is her first electoral challenge, | :59:59. | :00:05. | |
opportunity if she wishes, after the cuts commission agenda to cut public | :00:05. | :00:11. | |
services. It could be endorsements from Sir | :00:11. | :00:14. | |
Alex Ferguson, Alex McLeish or anyone else. They have tried to make | :00:14. | :00:18. | |
this about independence. We have kept to local issues and talking | :00:18. | :00:21. | |
about independence but if Labour don't win the seat that they once | :00:21. | :00:25. | |
held, this will be a dramatic verdict on her leadership and indeed | :00:25. | :00:29. | |
the campaign and scaremongering against independence. | :00:29. | :00:34. | |
We have had several council by-elections, the SNP has not won | :00:34. | :00:40. | |
one. It is ridiculous for you to say that this is a test against Joanne | :00:40. | :00:45. | |
Lamont. Every time we have been put to the voters we have won well. | :00:45. | :00:52. | |
After the cuts commission speech she has not had an electoral challenge | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
on this kale. Labour have hit everything Donside. The fact that | :00:57. | :01:05. | |
you think that is great result... You you had leaf thes, you had | :01:05. | :01:11. | |
former footballers? I am more than happy to say we have put effort into | :01:11. | :01:16. | |
the Donside campaign. Yes had Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond. Heavyweight | :01:16. | :01:20. | |
figures coming up. We have put in the effort. We believe that the | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
people of Aberdeen should be represented as well as they were | :01:25. | :01:28. | |
with Brian Adam as they were with Mark McDonald. | :01:28. | :01:34. | |
And now the votes have been verified in Donside, the count proper is now | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
under way. We can give a figure for the turn out it is certainly not | :01:39. | :01:45. | |
impressive. The figure for Donside, 38%. That is | :01:45. | :01:49. | |
a pretty low turn out, but how does it compare, Professor John Curtice? | :01:49. | :01:54. | |
Well, it is not that bad given what we expect for by-elections these | :01:54. | :02:01. | |
days. It is better than the Glasgow kut cart by-election when only 32% | :02:01. | :02:07. | |
turned out, but it is lower than the last by-election, when 46% turned | :02:07. | :02:17. | |
:02:17. | :02:19. | ||
out. This is a constituency where I think this is about the turn out | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
that we expect, given the past records, and the difficulties of | :02:23. | :02:26. | |
getting voters to come to the polls for anything. | :02:26. | :02:31. | |
It is not a huge boost to democracy but they have given the | :02:31. | :02:36. | |
circumstances, it was a bright day in abdeeb. It either encouraged | :02:36. | :02:41. | |
people to think about politics or... Think about sunning themselveses! | :02:41. | :02:48. | |
really hate to pick up on a couple of things but let's do it. | :02:48. | :02:52. | |
When Hamza says that the Labour Party were going for endorsements, | :02:52. | :03:01. | |
the MPs were stressing that Joey was back. And proud of my connections. | :03:01. | :03:07. | |
And Lewis McDonald said that the, the Labour Party, rather, had been | :03:07. | :03:11. | |
suffering personal attacks from the SNP. The Labour candidate strike | :03:11. | :03:17. | |
Mark McDonald as a boy trying to do a man's job. If that is not insult, | :03:17. | :03:23. | |
I'm not sure what is. I wonder if like ruth Davidson he | :03:23. | :03:28. | |
should have to present ID if he turned up at a bar? Oh! If I had | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
been asked for ID, that really would have been something. | :03:33. | :03:38. | |
You sent your party leader to buy the round? ! She offered to buy me a | :03:38. | :03:44. | |
drink in our egalitarian approach, glen for uch events. | :03:44. | :03:52. | |
This was at a Bruce Springsteen concert? Yes, a great concert for a | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
63-year-old guy to give his very best. | :03:55. | :04:01. | |
I didn't realise you were 63! You played it differently in the | :04:01. | :04:06. | |
campaign. Trying to rise above the battle between the two main parties | :04:06. | :04:09. | |
contesting the election, do you think that will have paid off for | :04:09. | :04:14. | |
you? I think that we wanted to present a positive campaign. We saw | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
in the clip a while ago that Labour and SNP were at each other's | :04:19. | :04:27. | |
throats. I think for an outsider to the Aberdeen area, it was almost an | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
election about who is to blame for the Irish us that the people face. | :04:31. | :04:39. | |
Was it is the SNP Government or the Labour-led Council? Rather than | :04:39. | :04:44. | |
anybody presenting a positive alternative to issues in the | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
community, but I think what is clear is that this by-election will have | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
absolutely no impact whatsoever on the referendum. | :04:52. | :04:58. | |
That is your candidate, Ross Thomson. A young councillor on the | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
City of Aberdeen and the Tories in administration with the Labour | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
Party. Labour in the lead. A quick word on your choice of | :05:06. | :05:11. | |
candidate. Do you think you made a mistake to choose the finances | :05:11. | :05:15. | |
convener on a council which, for whatever reason is having to make | :05:15. | :05:24. | |
cuts for which he is ultimately responsible? He has given years of | :05:24. | :05:30. | |
public service, but he is also a successful businessman. A lot of | :05:30. | :05:34. | |
people in Aberdeen would like that type of candidate that has | :05:34. | :05:40. | |
experience of business and public service. You got an honest appraisal | :05:40. | :05:49. | |
of the big issues that matter. To honest? Not at all, I like honesty! | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
That is him on the campaign trail. We will talk more about the | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
panellists in a little while. Those who have followed this campaign | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
closely might think people in Aberdeen spent all day going round | :06:01. | :06:09. | |
and round on the roundabout. But it is a part of Scotland which has a | :06:09. | :06:13. | |
rich political history, often described as SMP heartland. What | :06:13. | :06:19. | |
makes the north-east tech? What do people care about? Is there more to | :06:19. | :06:29. | |
:06:29. | :06:44. | ||
There is no doubting the colour of the north-east, it was once a sea of | :06:44. | :06:50. | |
Tory blue, but then a few shoots of yellow began to grow around the | :06:50. | :06:57. | |
edges. It felt ripped -- it very quickly took root, and now, like the | :06:57. | :07:05. | |
rape seed in the countryside, SMP Dello dominates. After the slump of | :07:05. | :07:14. | |
1979, the Nationalists struggled to make inroads. But it was in coastal | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
communities that the Conservatives started lose their grip. The | :07:18. | :07:23. | |
fisheries policy was hitting the industry hard, deep blue was fading, | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
and the Tory MP represented the government would force allowing this | :07:26. | :07:32. | |
Brussels rule. There was a new kid on the block, and in the face of | :07:32. | :07:35. | |
these damaging European restrictions, he was offering to be | :07:35. | :07:43. | |
the fisherman's friend. The UK entered the fishing industry, and | :07:43. | :07:48. | |
that led to a raft of new rules and regulations that fisherman had not | :07:48. | :07:58. | |
:07:58. | :07:59. | ||
faced before. When we arrived in 1987, when the election was fought, | :07:59. | :08:04. | |
the immunity had affinity for the MP, but with all of these things | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
ongoing and the distress in the industry, what you saw what the | :08:08. | :08:17. | |
fisherman saying, we do not like this policy. Alex Salmond one in | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
1987, and fishing has been a significant part of his policies | :08:20. | :08:27. | |
since. The Nationalists' resurgence in the north-east was taking shape. | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
More support would come with devolution, especially in rural | :08:30. | :08:37. | |
areas. Farming an important part of the local economy. But with next | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
year looming, some of the farmers are turning their backs on the | :08:41. | :08:45. | |
yellow and launching a campaign against independence. But even they | :08:45. | :08:52. | |
accept the SNP have not been their enemies. The SNP have done a | :08:52. | :08:55. | |
reasonably acceptable job, as far as we are concerned, north of the | :08:55. | :09:02. | |
border. That is pretty well accepted by the farming community. That is a | :09:02. | :09:11. | |
very approachable -- the is an approachable guy, he does his best | :09:11. | :09:17. | |
to address issues when he can. But having said that, I still believe | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
that the majority of farming folk are conservatives at heart, although | :09:20. | :09:27. | |
they might have voted SNP as a protest vote from time to time. | :09:27. | :09:32. | |
After conquering the rule vote, the city would be next. Brian Adam | :09:32. | :09:37. | |
driving home a big victory in 2003. Guess what was a big issue even | :09:37. | :09:47. | |
then. Infrastructure has been a hot topic, but in Aberdeen, there is | :09:47. | :09:57. | |
:09:57. | :10:00. | ||
The oil and gas industry is what makes Aberdeen unique, the | :10:00. | :10:05. | |
politicians love it because it raises tax, lots of it. Its | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
businesses care deeply about taxation and economic stability, but | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
seem reluctant to enter any debate about independence. Businesses do | :10:14. | :10:19. | |
not have a vote, each of their employees have a vote. Businesses | :10:19. | :10:23. | |
are sensitive to a tapestry of opinions. They are reluctant to | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
express a -- to express an opinion because they do not have the | :10:28. | :10:33. | |
information yet. The chamber will try to put together the analysis for | :10:33. | :10:37. | |
its members over the next year, but it will take the whole year to | :10:37. | :10:43. | |
winkle it out and lay it out so people can understand the options. | :10:43. | :10:48. | |
The north-east might have a top coat of yellow at Holyrood, but there is | :10:48. | :10:53. | |
a multicoloured rainbow of political allegiances. All four main parties | :10:53. | :10:58. | |
have a splattering of representatives, and there is a | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
splash of green and independence as well. The irony is that the | :11:02. | :11:07. | |
fisherman supported the SNP in the 1980s because the Conservatives were | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
a pro-Europe party. Many felt the Common fisheries policy was | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
destroying their industry. It was the SNP who were banging the drum. | :11:16. | :11:22. | |
Fast forward, and it is the SNP who are talking about an independent | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
Scotland being part of Europe and the Conservatives who are offering | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
the option of the United Kingdom outside Europe. Tings have changed | :11:30. | :11:34. | |
and many fishermen believe that could leave the Nationalists high | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
and dry. I like the fast forward trick, I | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
wonder if we have got a button here that could fast forward as to the | :11:42. | :11:47. | |
result! The count is underway, hopefully we can bring you the | :11:47. | :11:54. | |
result before 2am. That is our hope, if not necessarily our expectation. | :11:54. | :12:04. | |
:12:04. | :12:05. | ||
Let's talk about the north-east. The SMP -- the SNP seem to have carved | :12:05. | :12:11. | |
out the territory and made it their own. How did they do it? Primarily, | :12:11. | :12:18. | |
by being able to exploit local issues. Perhaps suggesting that what | :12:18. | :12:24. | |
he was talking about, Aberdeen feeling left out, but also, the SNP | :12:24. | :12:29. | |
managed to champion local interest in the north-east, to do with | :12:29. | :12:36. | |
farming and fishing. What is also true, having managed to capture some | :12:36. | :12:42. | |
of those seats, they have managed to embed themselves in them through the | :12:42. | :12:48. | |
popularity of the representatives. If you define the north-east, | :12:48. | :12:56. | |
including Perth and Moray, nine of the ten top SNP seats are in the | :12:56. | :13:03. | |
area. It has become a remarkable concentration. We do not know if it | :13:03. | :13:09. | |
is to do with independence, very few independent opinion polls give us | :13:09. | :13:13. | |
evidence about the regional breakdown, but we are not aware of | :13:13. | :13:20. | |
any particular evidence that north-east are particularly keen. | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
underline the remarkable situation that exists in that part of the | :13:23. | :13:32. | |
country, with Mark McDonald having resigned to stand as a candidate, if | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
he is elected, if anything happened to anybody else on the ten Mac row | :13:36. | :13:42. | |
list, there is not a replacement. Yes, and you are talking about Alex | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
Salmond's majority, notionally, if the Labour Party were to win the | :13:47. | :13:57. | |
:13:57. | :14:07. | ||
seat, one of the opposition party wins, in practice, the independent, | :14:07. | :14:12. | |
those who stepped down over NATO, tend to vote with the SNP, we are | :14:12. | :14:18. | |
talking about a notional majority. The north-east generally is a SNP | :14:18. | :14:25. | |
stronghold, but you have some real Liberal Democrat positions. This | :14:25. | :14:32. | |
patch of Aberdeen, to the north of the city, Brian Adam was a list MSP | :14:32. | :14:37. | |
in 1999, he took it with a tiny majority, and he has increased it | :14:37. | :14:42. | |
exponentially to a large figure, but this patch of Aberdeen, the northern | :14:42. | :14:50. | |
half of the city, has been Labour in the past. You look at the days of | :14:50. | :15:00. | |
:15:00. | :15:03. | ||
Bob Hughes, , you did not count. This is an area they have had to | :15:03. | :15:09. | |
win, through hard, diligent effort. Brian Adam did three things. There | :15:09. | :15:16. | |
was a personal vote, somebody said that he took the new members and | :15:16. | :15:21. | |
gave them support, he said, diligent, hard constituency work, | :15:21. | :15:26. | |
but the third thing was organisation, we saw the Chief | :15:26. | :15:34. | |
Executive of the party. Nothing was being left to chance. He was talking | :15:34. | :15:43. | |
about the swing that might go from one side to the other. | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
north-west constituency is still a Labour Party seat. If we were | :15:47. | :15:52. | |
talking about a by-election in Aberdeen North, we would be | :15:52. | :15:57. | |
anticipating a Labour victory, so that exemplifies a crucial truth | :15:57. | :16:03. | |
about Scottish politics, that voters in Scotland about differently in | :16:03. | :16:07. | |
Scottish Parliamentary elections from in Westminster elections, and | :16:07. | :16:11. | |
ironically, devolution, which was meant to keep the Nationalists in | :16:12. | :16:17. | |
their box, to kill nationalism, has provided the SNP with a political | :16:17. | :16:22. | |
platform and environment that has allowed it to be successful. That is | :16:22. | :16:31. | |
the reason why we have ended up with a referendum. What is interesting is | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
if, in voting for SNP, people are wanting to vote for independence, | :16:35. | :16:40. | |
rather than voting for a party which defends Scotland's interests within | :16:40. | :16:50. | |
the UK. The political panel has changed very slightly. Liam McArthur | :16:50. | :16:58. | |
has been replaced by the MP for Edinburgh West. In terms of the | :16:58. | :17:02. | |
Labour Party and the extent to which they have lost ground to the SNP in | :17:02. | :17:07. | |
this part of the country, what is the internal analysis in the Labour | :17:07. | :17:12. | |
Party, what do you think has happened? We have got a | :17:12. | :17:14. | |
sophisticated electorate, who are happy to vote for a political party | :17:14. | :17:17. | |
in Westminster and do something different in the Scottish | :17:17. | :17:25. | |
Parliament. Why do voters in Aberdeen Donside prefer to be | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
represented by the Nationalists, why have they preferred that for the | :17:29. | :17:35. | |
last ten years, and why has the Labour Party not bounced back? | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
has got less to do with stun up for Scotland's interest and more to do | :17:39. | :17:49. | |
:17:49. | :17:49. | ||
with individual interests. SNP stand up for tax cuts. It is looking after | :17:49. | :17:54. | |
the pound in the pocket. It is a sense of retail politics that they | :17:54. | :17:59. | |
went into the elections with. last Holyrood election, the Labour | :17:59. | :18:05. | |
Party supported the council tax freeze also. And then the SNP | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
increased the retail politics and put a better deal on the shelf, | :18:08. | :18:13. | |
which proves the point. But it was popular. Does that make it a bad | :18:13. | :18:19. | |
idea? Politics is getting cynical. It is about the top five offers that | :18:19. | :18:27. | |
you have got. They were putting out the leaflets today, Mark McDonald | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
will not save your school, because he will be voting for independence | :18:30. | :18:36. | |
in Holyrood. You have to make the case in your local council. A lot of | :18:36. | :18:40. | |
people will see through that. is the Liberal Democrat plan to win | :18:40. | :18:45. | |
back lost support in places like Aberdeen South, which your party | :18:45. | :18:54. | |
leader used to represent? Or in places like the Gordon constituency, | :18:54. | :18:59. | |
it used to be Liberal Democrat in Holyrood, but now is represented by | :18:59. | :19:05. | |
Alex Salmond. Absolutely. We will have to wait and see what the | :19:06. | :19:11. | |
results are in the Poulter night. You are not predicting a late | :19:11. | :19:19. | |
surge? A late game, yes! No, I am not at all. We took a beating two | :19:19. | :19:25. | |
years ago will stop let's see what the results tonight. What has | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
happened to the vote in those intervening two years. I am asking | :19:29. | :19:34. | |
about strategy. The strategy is to make it clear what we are delivering | :19:34. | :19:44. | |
in Westminster. Every taxpayer in Aberdeen has received 600 pounds tax | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
cuts in the last three years, and it will be �700 next year. Pensioners | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
have received the largest single increase they have ever had. We need | :19:53. | :19:58. | |
to talk about what we have delivered in government, and by doing that, we | :19:58. | :20:06. | |
can win people back. We saw Christine Jardine, a former special | :20:07. | :20:11. | |
adviser to the UK Government. A moment or two ago, that is the live | :20:11. | :20:16. | |
scene at the count as the votes stack up and we get ever closer | :20:16. | :20:22. | |
towards a declaration. Of course we will bring that to you live. All in | :20:22. | :20:30. | |
terms of numbers is 38% in the turn out. We have discussed that, but the | :20:30. | :20:35. | |
North East, as Kezia Dugdale said, it is SNP Heartland territory. Do | :20:35. | :20:40. | |
you think that could be at risk over the European issue, which is where | :20:40. | :20:45. | |
the report by Kevin Keane ended earlier, if there is scepticism | :20:45. | :20:50. | |
about the European Union among fishermen, farmers, that the | :20:50. | :20:59. | |
possibility of getting out of the E U when the referendum that the | :20:59. | :21:03. | |
Conservative Party is offering comes around, may be more attractive than | :21:03. | :21:08. | |
you have to offer? Well, the idea of the SNP Heartland, coming overnight | :21:09. | :21:16. | |
is a logical fallacy. An incredible amount of heart work, entrenchment | :21:16. | :21:22. | |
and as Brian Adam was saying, it is -- as Brian Taylor was saying, it is | :21:22. | :21:27. | |
something that Brian Adam said also, was that this was horde work and | :21:27. | :21:34. | |
hard graft. Exploiting the fact that Labour thought that they had devine | :21:34. | :21:39. | |
rule over, but in terms of the specific question with regards to | :21:39. | :21:43. | |
the fisherman is Scotland's voice represented in the EU. There is a | :21:43. | :21:48. | |
situation where if Scotland wishes to maintain its membership in the | :21:48. | :21:52. | |
European Union, to have a voice through the Scottish government, the | :21:52. | :21:56. | |
only way to do that is to vote "yes" next year. | :21:56. | :22:02. | |
But then you would not have the UK's clout in order to influence the | :22:02. | :22:08. | |
overall decision-making... That involves all 28 countries? If you | :22:08. | :22:13. | |
look at how successful independent small European Union nations are, | :22:13. | :22:17. | |
they are incredibly successful when it comes to negotiations. In fact | :22:17. | :22:23. | |
more nimble and they are able to make alliances with other small | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
countries and nations within the European Union. So it is patronising | :22:27. | :22:33. | |
to say that Scotland not hold its on. I think that they can do it | :22:33. | :22:36. | |
well. You would have fewer votes to bring | :22:36. | :22:42. | |
to the table to get your own way? But the voice we would have at | :22:42. | :22:47. | |
council meetings with the Scottish government ministers, they have made | :22:47. | :22:52. | |
that voice well. They could be going further with their own independent | :22:52. | :22:56. | |
voice. And briefly on the European theme, | :22:56. | :23:02. | |
David? Nonsense. He proceeds on the basis that the Nistlerooys use a lot | :23:02. | :23:07. | |
of time. There is no evidence of small countries coming together to | :23:07. | :23:11. | |
overcome the large countries it is the large countries in Europe that | :23:11. | :23:16. | |
call the shots. That's why the United Kingdom has been able to get | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
finally a good deal on fishing for Scotland which will give more | :23:20. | :23:25. | |
regional control over our fisheries. Scotland on its own could not have | :23:25. | :23:30. | |
gotten that deal. In the past, in order to protect | :23:30. | :23:35. | |
broader UK interests, you sacrificed the interests of the Scottish | :23:35. | :23:41. | |
fishing industry. That has come out in the paperwork down the years? | :23:41. | :23:45. | |
don't accept that. Obviously, the United Kingdom has to have a | :23:45. | :23:49. | |
position that takes into account the interests of the whole of the United | :23:49. | :23:53. | |
Kingdom, but there have been times... There have been times when | :23:53. | :23:59. | |
the fishing has not been a priority for the UK? No. I don't accept that. | :23:59. | :24:04. | |
What I point to is a very, very good example of the United Kingdom | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
getting a very good deal for Scotland. There is absolutely no | :24:08. | :24:13. | |
evidence to back up this assertion that small countries come together | :24:13. | :24:18. | |
to defeat the larger interests in Europe. That is not how it works. | :24:18. | :24:24. | |
OK. We will come back to you all in due course. Now let's go back live | :24:24. | :24:31. | |
to Aberdeen, to the count. Now to Steve Godden. He has guests with | :24:31. | :24:38. | |
him. Before you bring them in, Steven, I happen to know you | :24:38. | :24:42. | |
reporting from Aberdeen Donside is a bit of a home-coming is it not? | :24:43. | :24:49. | |
is. Yes. I grew up here in the constituency. From a personal tlefl | :24:49. | :24:53. | |
is a delight to come back and see the old haurts, but it is | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
interesting to see how things have changed and in some ways stayed the | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
same. I remember learning to drive on the haudagain roundabout. People | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
are still talking about it, that is 17 years ago. So there are long-term | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
concerns that the people are still talking about it, and they still | :25:10. | :25:14. | |
want it addressed. A little update from what is happening in the room. | :25:14. | :25:19. | |
I get the sense that things have calmed down after the initial flurry | :25:19. | :25:23. | |
of xierment. Maybe after the long campaign, the adrenaline is starting | :25:23. | :25:29. | |
to wear off, but what I would say is that maybe the caffeine will kick in | :25:29. | :25:34. | |
soon. The one thing we have had confirmed since I spoke to you was | :25:34. | :25:44. | |
:25:44. | :25:46. | ||
the turnout. That is 38 peshz. With me are two gentlemen, Sir Malcolm | :25:46. | :25:51. | |
Bruce and how do you read that turn out? It is disappointing with a turn | :25:51. | :25:55. | |
out as low as that. The majority have not taken part. I think that | :25:55. | :26:01. | |
there has been a lack of inspiration from the two candidates. That people | :26:01. | :26:08. | |
are upset that Aberdeen been left the most underfunded council in | :26:08. | :26:14. | |
Scotland. Also they are looking at a Labour-led administration council | :26:14. | :26:17. | |
that seems antidevelopment. So people are angry at both the Labour | :26:17. | :26:22. | |
and the SNP. That is why our vote appears to have gone up. People want | :26:22. | :26:27. | |
to see the transport situation resolved. They want everything ready | :26:27. | :26:31. | |
to go. They want to see Aberdeen getting a fair funding. They | :26:31. | :26:35. | |
contribute a huge amount in the economy, yet people are happy to | :26:35. | :26:40. | |
spend that money in the central belt. People are angry about that. | :26:40. | :26:45. | |
How do you assess what is happening tonight? We had a poor showing last | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
year. We have tried to draw the support back. What we are pleased | :26:49. | :26:55. | |
with is that the issues we raced on the doorstep have been fed back. | :26:55. | :27:01. | |
People have come back to say thank you for the third Donside crossing. | :27:01. | :27:07. | |
Thank you for the Western peripheral Route which the Liberal Democrats | :27:07. | :27:13. | |
initiated with the support of others. They are asking why does the | :27:13. | :27:17. | |
haudagain have to wait. They are concerned -- concerned about the | :27:18. | :27:26. | |
school mergers that give no benefit to the community. They also feel | :27:26. | :27:28. | |
that they lack support from the council. | :27:28. | :27:32. | |
We have been talking about the issues for a long time. Your party | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
has been in power for that period. If I take you, the third Donside | :27:37. | :27:43. | |
crossing it is ready to go with the planning permission, with all of the | :27:43. | :27:46. | |
structure plans as the Liberal Democrats took it forward when we | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
left the council. It took ten years to get it to go. The Labour group | :27:50. | :27:55. | |
have said that they would block it if they could. They tried to, but if | :27:55. | :27:59. | |
people see it ready to go, the tender should be out, it should be | :27:59. | :28:07. | |
built. The same with the western peripheral route. Why is it not | :28:07. | :28:10. | |
going? They are dragging their feet on | :28:10. | :28:14. | |
stuff we have ready to go. It would apeefr that the SNP are | :28:14. | :28:19. | |
going to hold the seat, but there has been a drop in the society | :28:19. | :28:29. | |
:28:29. | :28:29. | ||
share. It has drop #d from 55% in 2011 -- it has dropped from 55%. The | :28:30. | :28:36. | |
message from this by-election that they will not get 50% here and they | :28:36. | :28:40. | |
will struggle if they can't do it in their heartlands. | :28:40. | :28:45. | |
If independence has been a big issue on the doorsteps for the people, why | :28:45. | :28:49. | |
has it not been an issue in the campaign. The SNP have been allowed | :28:49. | :28:53. | |
to fight this on their terms, you could have done more to stop that, | :28:54. | :28:59. | |
couldn't you? The way in which the independence manifests sits is the | :28:59. | :29:04. | |
fact that people are becoming disinterested in politics. That is | :29:04. | :29:09. | |
partly the explanation for the low turnout. There is a measurable | :29:09. | :29:14. | |
distaste for some of the campaigning going on. This is why the inspect | :29:14. | :29:18. | |
inspect have been able to turn out with enough votes to win the | :29:18. | :29:24. | |
by-election. They will look at the figures and be as disappointed as | :29:24. | :29:28. | |
they were. What about your share of the vote? | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
wonder if UKIP are a factor in this? Probably not. We are in a position | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
where we are confident that the Conservatives and the Liberal | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
Democrats will take the third and the fourth place, but at the moment | :29:41. | :29:46. | |
we are not sure who is going to be third and who will be fourth. | :29:46. | :29:51. | |
Perhaps Malcolm and I can have a bet on that, but it is clear that UKIP | :29:51. | :29:57. | |
have picked up some votes, but I would be surprised if they held them | :29:57. | :30:00. | |
later tonight. Are you willing to place a bet on | :30:00. | :30:09. | |
the third place? I gather that our agents have a bolt of Highland Park, | :30:10. | :30:14. | |
but I hope that the democrats win, I would like a nip of that whisky, but | :30:14. | :30:19. | |
we have the potential to be squeezed. This is a by-election for | :30:19. | :30:26. | |
Labour to win. They have failed to do that but the SNP has failed to | :30:26. | :30:30. | |
galvanise people to support them. The wheels are coming off. People | :30:30. | :30:35. | |
are beginning to realise that the independence is a very, very big | :30:35. | :30:41. | |
project. I am surprised by the passion of the people saying that | :30:41. | :30:46. | |
they don't wish to do that. Here in the North East of Scotland, they | :30:46. | :30:55. | |
have been happy to take our votes but only 1% of the Scotland seat. | :30:55. | :31:00. | |
The control has been taken away from the fair service, they are | :31:00. | :31:03. | |
strangling local government with squeezes. People are beginning to | :31:03. | :31:07. | |
realise that this is a nasty centralising party that does not | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
give places like the North East room to breathe. People are angry. And | :31:11. | :31:15. | |
that is just the girning of the tide. When the tied turns against | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
the SNP in the North East it could turn a big way. | :31:19. | :31:24. | |
We have seen closures of schools in the by-election, but the reason for | :31:24. | :31:30. | |
that pressure on schools in Aberdeen is that the SNP are not giving | :31:30. | :31:33. | |
Aberdeen its fair share fr local government funding. So there is | :31:33. | :31:37. | |
pressure but the inspect. SNP are behind that. | :31:37. | :31:42. | |
But you are looking to close these schools? Well, the council of | :31:42. | :31:49. | |
administration is doing what is necessary. The Conservatives in | :31:49. | :31:53. | |
particular have been instruments in that. We talked about the third on | :31:53. | :31:59. | |
crossing. Its was a motion in the name of Ross Thomson that finally | :31:59. | :32:05. | |
put up Project in Motion that is something that Ross has been able to | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
claim as his success as a first year for at councillor. So a lot of work | :32:09. | :32:16. | |
is being done in Aberdeen. This is a dynamic place. An important part of | :32:16. | :32:22. | |
the economy, but one in which an SNP government is dragging its feet. | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
The other thing that came through, there is a sense of unease about the | :32:26. | :32:31. | |
direction in which Aberdeen is heading. Perhaps it has not the | :32:31. | :32:35. | |
rewards for the oil money that was flown through to this city for a | :32:35. | :32:40. | |
long time. People are saying this is the oil capital of the world, it | :32:40. | :32:45. | |
does not feel nor like like it. That is damaging to the economy. The | :32:45. | :32:51. | |
thing that concerns me is a lack of urgency with the Scottish Government | :32:51. | :32:57. | |
to unlock the dynamic that is necessary. I will not make an issue | :32:57. | :33:04. | |
of the fact. We don't have an overall majority, but Labour lead | :33:04. | :33:10. | |
the administration and Labour appear negative and hostile to a vision of | :33:10. | :33:14. | |
development for apdeeb. The first thing to happen was to resers the | :33:14. | :33:23. | |
decision on the rum -- was to reverse the decision on the Football | :33:23. | :33:30. | |
Club and it was to get this through. What we have is a spat between | :33:30. | :33:34. | |
Labour and the SNP for territory, where the people of Aberdeen are the | :33:34. | :33:39. | |
victims, they are not the gainers. They are not delivering of them, | :33:39. | :33:44. | |
either of them for the North East of Scotland. This has been | :33:44. | :33:47. | |
characterised as a by-election for a roundabout. How do you think that | :33:47. | :33:51. | |
the by-election will be remembered in terms of significance? It will be | :33:51. | :33:58. | |
remembered as a by-election that was fought on local issues. You have | :33:58. | :34:04. | |
heard, if -- that was on the impact of the local issues, Aberdeen has | :34:05. | :34:08. | |
problems, the bottleneck, the haudagain roundabout, most of us | :34:08. | :34:13. | |
will participate in that campaign will have had to suffer to get in | :34:13. | :34:20. | |
and out of the constituency. It has high lighted the issues. Hope that | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
whatever wins will go back and fight the corner for Aberdeen, for the | :34:26. | :34:31. | |
advertisement it needs and does not make the error of following the | :34:31. | :34:35. | |
Government practise. Glen, I will carry on with the trip | :34:35. | :34:39. | |
down memory lane. We will be back soon when I hope to hear from UKIP. | :34:39. | :34:49. | |
:34:49. | :34:49. | ||
Come back soon. You are watching a Newsnight | :34:49. | :34:53. | |
Scotland special, and our promise is to stay on air until we get the | :34:53. | :34:58. | |
declaration in Aberdeen Donside. Some time, we hope, between now and | :34:58. | :35:04. | |
2am. The longer it takes, the more likely we are to give you a treat | :35:04. | :35:11. | |
from the BBC election archive. We have been looking through that | :35:11. | :35:17. | |
today, and we have found a classic report by Vincent Hanna on the 1982 | :35:17. | :35:23. | |
Hillhead by-election, the Westminster by-election, one of the | :35:23. | :35:28. | |
famous by-elections in Scottish electoral history. We will play it | :35:28. | :35:35. | |
in full if we have not had a result by 1:15am. It will demonstrate how | :35:35. | :35:42. | |
much campaigning has changed over the last 30 years. I was six years | :35:42. | :35:49. | |
old in 1982. What age where you? You can go off people! I was sitting | :35:49. | :35:55. | |
here, trying not to disclose the fact that I covered that | :35:56. | :36:01. | |
by-election, as a child reporter! I was at Westminster, I went up to | :36:01. | :36:06. | |
have a look at it, because it was stunning. Other treats me include | :36:06. | :36:16. | |
:36:16. | :36:18. | ||
the contents of John Curtice was Mike favourite oak. 1832 to 2012. | :36:18. | :36:25. | |
Did you have a favourite electoral pact? We tend to rule the winners | :36:25. | :36:32. | |
and leave the losers to their sad fate. But occasionally, losers do | :36:32. | :36:36. | |
something remarkable. The candidate who has done the worst ever in a | :36:36. | :36:42. | |
general election, Taylor Dawson in Cardiff North, the authors of the | :36:42. | :36:47. | |
book say they are not quite sure if it is right, but she only got one | :36:47. | :36:52. | |
vote. Given that you have got to get eight or ten people to nominate | :36:52. | :37:02. | |
:37:02. | :37:02. | ||
you, she did rather badly! It might be that she ended up spreading her | :37:02. | :37:09. | |
vote to Finlay, because she did not just fight one constituency, she | :37:09. | :37:14. | |
fought all of them in Cardiff, and she did better elsewhere, but she | :37:14. | :37:21. | |
missed out in Cardiff North. Did she have a vote in that constituency? ! | :37:21. | :37:25. | |
With a name like hers, it was not immediately obvious that she was | :37:25. | :37:30. | |
somebody that would appeal to everybody who comes from Wales, but | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
maybe that is reading too much into it. They had not invented the symbol | :37:35. | :37:41. | |
loser by that point! We were talking about independence and the extent to | :37:41. | :37:46. | |
which it played in the Aberdeen Donside campaign. It is beyond | :37:46. | :37:51. | |
question the dominant issue of Scottish politics, and will remain | :37:51. | :37:57. | |
so until the referendum on the 18th of September next year. Brian Taylor | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
has been looking at some of the polling on that, and here is what he | :38:01. | :38:07. | |
found. Here is the agreed referendum | :38:07. | :38:12. | |
question, should Scotland be an independent country? What will be | :38:12. | :38:15. | |
the answer from the people of Scotland? Academics have been | :38:16. | :38:20. | |
chucking opinion polls. This is the picture from polls this year, which | :38:20. | :38:26. | |
asked the question. The graph suggests a consistent, variable read | :38:27. | :38:34. | |
for those supporting the union. Support for independence ranges at | :38:34. | :38:41. | |
around 36%, but opposition to independence fairies. Between ten | :38:41. | :38:48. | |
and 21% say they are undecided. Could that picture change? Better | :38:48. | :38:52. | |
together campaigners said they finding the views on the doorstep | :38:52. | :38:57. | |
are backing the junior. But the yes campaign say they can and will sway | :38:57. | :39:02. | |
opinion to their side. Their canvassers asked people to place | :39:02. | :39:07. | |
themselves on a spectrum from one, complete opposition to independence, | :39:07. | :39:13. | |
to ten, total support for independence. They acknowledge that | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
the default position currently lies closer to one down to ten. But they | :39:17. | :39:24. | |
detect signs that it is moving their way. What might sway popular | :39:24. | :39:29. | |
opinion? The economy. Remember this? The Scottish social attitudes | :39:29. | :39:35. | |
survey. Respondents were asked their views if it could be guaranteed that | :39:35. | :39:40. | |
they would be �500 better off each year under independence. The survey | :39:40. | :39:46. | |
suggested they would back independence by 65 to 25. But turned | :39:46. | :39:52. | |
that around, voters were asked their views if it could be shown they | :39:52. | :39:57. | |
would be �500 worse off. Independence was rigid did. As | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
ever, the pound in the pocket matters. | :40:01. | :40:10. | |
Let's talk a bit about that. Were you surprised? That is research that | :40:10. | :40:15. | |
you have been involved in. Were you surprised when the �500 question | :40:15. | :40:20. | |
produced such marked results? were not that surprised. Underneath | :40:20. | :40:26. | |
that question is also the fact that, if you do what we like to do, try to | :40:26. | :40:29. | |
keep track of what is driving people, and asked people what they | :40:30. | :40:36. | |
think independence would bring, and relate that to whether they are for | :40:36. | :40:45. | |
or against it, the expectation about independence that most matters, is | :40:45. | :40:50. | |
most clearly related to whether people are for or against, is there | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
few as to whether the economy would be better or worse. To that extent, | :40:55. | :40:59. | |
it is clear that this is the issue which seems most capable of writing | :40:59. | :41:06. | |
public opinion. One thing to say, it is giving you some indication of the | :41:06. | :41:13. | |
maximum size of the yes and no vote, because it says to people, let's | :41:13. | :41:17. | |
shame you really were convinced that Scotland would be worse off, so if | :41:17. | :41:22. | |
everybody were convinced that they would be better off, maybe two | :41:22. | :41:26. | |
thirds of the country would vote in favour. The question is, can the yes | :41:26. | :41:31. | |
side persuade anything approaching that many that Scotland would be | :41:31. | :41:37. | |
better off? The answer seems to be they have only persuaded around a | :41:37. | :41:42. | |
third of people. A third thing is the God you would be worse off, and | :41:42. | :41:48. | |
a quarter in the middle. At the moment, it seems that the people in | :41:48. | :41:55. | |
the middle also seem to be inclined to say, it is not worth the bother | :41:55. | :42:01. | |
of leaving the union. The problem the yes side face is that they are | :42:01. | :42:06. | |
looking at an asymmetric race, they have to win the argument, the other | :42:06. | :42:11. | |
side just simply have to avoid losing. But if the yes side can win | :42:11. | :42:17. | |
the argument, the potential is there. Are you picking up signs that | :42:17. | :42:23. | |
the yes campaign and the opposite campaign are working hard on | :42:23. | :42:28. | |
economic arguments to seal the deal? Absolutely, but it is an | :42:28. | :42:34. | |
asymmetric race. It is not like a general election, where competing | :42:34. | :42:36. | |
propositions are tested to destruction and the one that | :42:36. | :42:40. | |
survived the best wins. In this case, we will examine what the | :42:40. | :42:49. | |
prounion parties are offering. It is a referendum, with a single | :42:49. | :42:52. | |
proposition of independence being the primary source to be tested. | :42:52. | :42:58. | |
This referendum will proceed by doubt and reassurance. The union | :42:58. | :43:02. | |
parties will not say Scotland cannot be independent, they will throw in | :43:02. | :43:09. | |
the doubts. Primarily about the economy, but also about the European | :43:09. | :43:15. | |
Union membership, etc. You could be independent, but the economy, at the | :43:15. | :43:22. | |
defence profile... It is up to the proponents of independence to offer | :43:22. | :43:28. | |
a more detailed form of reassurance. At the moment, it would seem that | :43:28. | :43:32. | |
the reassurance is not sufficient to trump the doubts that are there in | :43:32. | :43:36. | |
people 's minds, but the reason that the money question is so intriguing, | :43:36. | :43:43. | |
it indicates there is not a fixed view, people are on a spectrum, even | :43:43. | :43:48. | |
those who advocate independence, they concede that the swing is | :43:48. | :43:53. | |
towards the one rather than the 10th, they think if they can pick | :43:53. | :43:56. | |
away at the doubts and get it out in the open and swamp them with | :43:56. | :44:04. | |
reassurance, they can get the swingometer the other side. We have | :44:04. | :44:11. | |
a new member on our panel, Stuart Maxwell from the SNP. Humza Yousaf | :44:11. | :44:19. | |
has gone home to his bed! On independence, I wonder, what is it | :44:19. | :44:24. | |
that the yes campaign are going to do to build support? At what point | :44:24. | :44:30. | |
do you expect the polls to start moving in your favour, if you are | :44:30. | :44:33. | |
convinced you can do this? I am absolutely convinced. I cannot | :44:33. | :44:38. | |
predict when the pulse will shift. If you go back to 2011, the opinion | :44:39. | :44:44. | |
polls up to two months before showed us between ten and 15 points behind, | :44:45. | :44:52. | |
but we won by 18 points. The pulse will shift, next year sometime, | :44:52. | :44:55. | |
people will begin to seriously address the issue of the fact that | :44:55. | :45:00. | |
they have to make a choice in September 2014. Just now, there is a | :45:00. | :45:06. | |
lot of thinking going on. When I talk to people in Aberdeen Donside, | :45:06. | :45:11. | |
I spoke to a lot of people, they said they had not yet really | :45:11. | :45:16. | |
considered it. The opinion polls are not reflecting the fact that most | :45:16. | :45:21. | |
people are in the middle point, they are waiting to hear what everybody | :45:21. | :45:26. | |
has to say. When it comes to reassuring people, are we going to | :45:26. | :45:34. | |
hear more from the Scottish government and the broader yes side | :45:34. | :45:36. | |
about what Scotland would or could continue to share with the rest of | :45:36. | :45:44. | |
the UK? It seems to be emerging as a theme in your campaign. Both things | :45:44. | :45:48. | |
are important, we will say that some things will be the same, some things | :45:48. | :45:53. | |
we will share, it would make sense for an independent Scotland and the | :45:53. | :46:00. | |
rest of the UK to share certain aspects of life going forward, but | :46:00. | :46:05. | |
also, basic administration, we live on the same island, so a lot of | :46:05. | :46:09. | |
things would have to run in tandem. You could not run different | :46:09. | :46:13. | |
timetables for trains. There are practical, sensible things we can | :46:13. | :46:20. | |
run together. They do not matter whether you are independent or not. | :46:20. | :46:24. | |
But the positive issues that we will put forward will be about the | :46:24. | :46:28. | |
differences, the choices we can make, the fact that we can always | :46:28. | :46:35. | |
get the government we want after independence. The best people to | :46:35. | :46:39. | |
decide on the future of Scotland are the people that live here. | :46:39. | :46:46. | |
extent to which the SNP government is offering reassurance on the | :46:46. | :46:51. | |
pensions and welfare Administration or on staying in NATO, keeping the | :46:51. | :46:56. | |
Queen, the pound, do you think that is reassuring people and is | :46:56. | :47:00. | |
neutralising some of the doubts and fears that your side have raised? | :47:00. | :47:06. | |
made an excellent case for the union. What you get from the SNP, | :47:06. | :47:10. | |
they will say anything to anybody if it is what they want them to hear. | :47:10. | :47:16. | |
Their message to businesses, we will cut corporation tax, their message | :47:16. | :47:18. | |
to the left-wingers, we will have Scandinavian style social services, | :47:18. | :47:23. | |
but they do not talk about how they can marry together. How can you have | :47:23. | :47:30. | |
both? People are waking up to the arguments, they understand the | :47:30. | :47:34. | |
challenges and they are scrutinising the detail. They want more than a | :47:34. | :47:40. | |
shared assertion from the SNP. you look at the polls that we have | :47:40. | :47:46. | |
been discussing, do you think, this is in the bag? Not at all, we will | :47:46. | :47:51. | |
work every day until the 18th of September next year. We will fight | :47:51. | :47:55. | |
for every vote to make sure we stay strong within the UK. We will | :47:55. | :48:00. | |
continue to do that. The legwork is for the yes campaign is to make if | :48:00. | :48:04. | |
they want to see a yes vote next year, they know they have got a | :48:04. | :48:09. | |
problem with young people and with women. We will hear a lot more | :48:09. | :48:14. | |
retail politics, assertion, ideas thrown towards women and young | :48:14. | :48:23. | |
people to tempt them over. Is this a term you recognise? I understand | :48:23. | :48:25. | |
what she means, she was complaining earlier that this is what people | :48:26. | :48:32. | |
were talking about. This is a debate about two things. It is in part | :48:32. | :48:35. | |
about what independence would or would not ring to Scotland in terms | :48:35. | :48:41. | |
of a better life people. But it also has to be said, it is about | :48:41. | :48:45. | |
identity, how we feel and who we want to share our lives with. The | :48:45. | :48:54. | |
inch reading thing that we have uncovered, ironically, this is not | :48:54. | :48:57. | |
really a debate about Scottish nurse, so much as a debate about the | :48:57. | :49:05. | |
edition is. The truth is, Scotland... Virtually everybody in | :49:05. | :49:13. | |
Scotland feels strongly Scottish. Two thirds of people in Scotland, | :49:13. | :49:20. | |
when asked to say how Scottish they feel, they were six or seven on the | :49:20. | :49:24. | |
scale out of seven. What divides people is whether they acknowledge | :49:24. | :49:28. | |
feeling British or not. Those who are reluctant to vote for | :49:28. | :49:32. | |
independence are those who retain that sense of Britishness. | :49:32. | :49:39. | |
Ironically, although the proposition on the ballot paper, should Scotland | :49:39. | :49:42. | |
be an independent country, it looks for many voters the proposition they | :49:42. | :49:49. | |
are addressing is, should Scotland remain in the UK? | :49:49. | :49:53. | |
We should talk about the smaller parties standing in Aberdeen | :49:53. | :49:59. | |
Donside. We should talk about the UK Independence Party, they have been | :49:59. | :50:07. | |
hoping for a breakthrough in the campaign. We can cross now to Lord | :50:07. | :50:13. | |
Monckton, who is at the count in Aberdeen. Thank you very much for | :50:13. | :50:20. | |
joining us, Lord Monckton. Your leader, Nigel Farage, campaigned in | :50:20. | :50:26. | |
Donside. He made another couple of visits to Scotland during the | :50:26. | :50:30. | |
campaign, he promised a breakthrough, do you think you have | :50:30. | :50:34. | |
made it? We have made a breakthrough. I think it is clear | :50:35. | :50:40. | |
now that we are going to keep our deposit. You may think 5% of the | :50:40. | :50:46. | |
vote, how is that a breakthrough but for a party that has never before | :50:46. | :50:50. | |
fielded a candidate in this way to come close to keeping his deposit in | :50:50. | :50:55. | |
a national election rather than a European one, this is a significant | :50:55. | :51:00. | |
breakthrough. No doubt about it, we are here in Scotland, we are here to | :51:00. | :51:04. | |
stay and we are building from here. It is not quite a revolution, though | :51:05. | :51:11. | |
is it? No. Most revolutions are slow. UKIP has been around for 20 | :51:11. | :51:16. | |
years. It took 20 years for UKIP to achieve the real breakthrough south | :51:16. | :51:22. | |
of the border, we hope it will take a little less for that breakthrough | :51:22. | :51:27. | |
north of the border but this is the first significant step. | :51:27. | :51:32. | |
During the campaign, the most prominent political moment in the | :51:32. | :51:36. | |
campaign did not happen in Aberdeen but in Edinburgh. Your leader was | :51:37. | :51:41. | |
mobbed at a pub where he was holding a press conference. In fact he had | :51:41. | :51:46. | |
to be barricaded inside the pub for his own safety and security. He was | :51:46. | :51:53. | |
then led away by the police. They used a riot van to get him out of | :51:53. | :52:02. | |
there. He accused the pro tersers of being anti-English. -- protesters of | :52:02. | :52:07. | |
being anti-English. Do you think that helped him to pick up votes or | :52:07. | :52:13. | |
might he have done better if he had handled things differently? | :52:13. | :52:17. | |
protesters said get back to England, we don't want your sort here. Get | :52:17. | :52:24. | |
back to England. They don't want the English in Scotland. If that is not | :52:24. | :52:32. | |
anti-English, xenophobic, , what is it? There is an element in the SNP | :52:32. | :52:37. | |
that does take that nasty line. We have come across it on the | :52:37. | :52:43. | |
doorsteps. The people who have not made us welcome have been the | :52:43. | :52:50. | |
hardliners in the SNP. They have become a very anticrowd. | :52:50. | :52:55. | |
I think it was a group called Radical Independence that led that | :52:55. | :53:02. | |
campaign. Although they believe in independence... | :53:02. | :53:06. | |
INAUDIBLE I would accept it was a faction of | :53:06. | :53:10. | |
the SNP or it has overlaps of the SNP. | :53:10. | :53:14. | |
You are asserting that, I don't think there is evidence for it, do | :53:14. | :53:21. | |
you have evidence of it? Yes. They are connected with an outfit called | :53:21. | :53:24. | |
the Antifascist Alliance. That puts pictures of some of its people on | :53:24. | :53:29. | |
the website. Some of those are definitely SNP members at well. | :53:29. | :53:36. | |
They say that they were campaigning against racism, actually it is UK | :53:36. | :53:42. | |
independence -- it is the UK Independence Party, the policies, | :53:42. | :53:47. | |
certainly you have had to discipline and remove some of the members from | :53:47. | :53:53. | |
the party for expressing certain views? Let be clear. We are not a | :53:53. | :53:59. | |
racist party it is a very funny way to accuse another party of being | :53:59. | :54:04. | |
racist, when you shout racist slogans at it. It was not we who got | :54:04. | :54:08. | |
arrested by the police as a result of that incident but they. Let's | :54:08. | :54:14. | |
remember who was badly behaved here it was not us. Merely we wish to | :54:14. | :54:17. | |
leave the European Union, that does not mean that we are anti-European. | :54:17. | :54:26. | |
On the contrary, we are the most pro-European. We realise that the | :54:26. | :54:29. | |
antidemocratic structure of the European Union represents for the | :54:29. | :54:35. | |
whole of Europe. I spent years studying the civilisation of Ancient | :54:35. | :54:41. | |
Greece and Rome... I would not get into that now, let's ask another | :54:41. | :54:45. | |
question... We are not anti-European, we are not | :54:45. | :54:49. | |
anti-English. I would like to ask you where you | :54:49. | :54:54. | |
stand on the Scottish dlsh British identity question. Where do you | :54:54. | :54:59. | |
stand on that? Do you identify as a Scottish party in Scotland? Well, | :54:59. | :55:03. | |
all of us who are Scottish are proud to be Scottish. One of the great | :55:03. | :55:08. | |
glories of the Scottish nation is that we remain proud of our | :55:08. | :55:13. | |
nationhood while, at the same time, being at ease with Europe, though | :55:13. | :55:16. | |
increasingly ill at ease with the European Union. So I think that | :55:16. | :55:20. | |
there is a Scottish identity but also a British identity, that we | :55:21. | :55:26. | |
have come across strongly among all parties on the street. Many, even in | :55:26. | :55:31. | |
the SNP, who do not want jut right independence. The SNP has been | :55:31. | :55:36. | |
unable to recent weeks to answer questions about how to pay for not | :55:36. | :55:41. | |
just defence but welfare which applies very much in this questions | :55:41. | :55:47. | |
and also health services. After the Barnet formula... Hang on a minute. | :55:47. | :55:52. | |
Health service is being paid for... OK. Thank you very much. | :55:52. | :55:57. | |
At the moment there is no doubt that the numbers do not add up. The | :55:57. | :56:00. | |
numbers have not been done. Thank you very much. The UK | :56:00. | :56:08. | |
Independence Party member, Lord Monckton live. He said that the SNP | :56:08. | :56:16. | |
was the Scottish nasty party, but Sir Malcolm Bruce described the SNP | :56:16. | :56:21. | |
as being nasty earlier, would you like to respond? I would not dignify | :56:21. | :56:26. | |
them with any responses, but there is a way to point out that clearly | :56:27. | :56:35. | |
members of UKIP and unfortunately Malcolm Bruce have taken negative | :56:35. | :56:39. | |
commentary about others putting forward a legitimate position. | :56:39. | :56:46. | |
But you are the -- but you failed when asked, to condemn the language | :56:47. | :56:53. | |
used in that demonstration, it was not the only way in which the pro | :56:53. | :56:56. | |
testers against Nigel Farage expressed themselves but they did | :56:56. | :57:01. | |
suggest where he might like to place the Union flag and your leader | :57:01. | :57:06. | |
failed to condemn that? He said hefrn a right to protest. Peaceful | :57:06. | :57:10. | |
protest is a reasonable thing in our society. We accept that people have | :57:10. | :57:15. | |
a right to say to may members of UKIP that we don't agree with the | :57:15. | :57:19. | |
policies, we don't support nor want them here that is acceptable in | :57:19. | :57:25. | |
terms of the policies of UKIP. I would agree with the protesters in | :57:25. | :57:30. | |
that sense, but many were not members of the SNP a number were | :57:30. | :57:35. | |
English people. The idea that there was some SNP anti-English protest is | :57:35. | :57:41. | |
ridiculous it is a slur on the SNP, I absolutely reject it. | :57:41. | :57:46. | |
If UKIP held their deposit, would you accept, David, that it is a | :57:46. | :57:51. | |
borough for them in Scottish terms and is it worrying for you given | :57:51. | :57:56. | |
that they steal votes from you in England? I don't think it is a | :57:56. | :58:01. | |
borough. UKIP's pitch is a pitch, a plague on | :58:01. | :58:06. | |
all your houses. It is a protest vote it is no doubt about that, by | :58:06. | :58:10. | |
people unhappy with the EU, unhappy about immigration. I don't think it | :58:10. | :58:15. | |
is from people who look at a person who they thought that they would | :58:15. | :58:20. | |
elect as their MSP tonight it is a message. We all have to listen to | :58:20. | :58:24. | |
that. We can't ignore the fact that the voters in Scotland, just as | :58:24. | :58:27. | |
elsewhere in the United Kingdom are concerned about immigration I | :58:27. | :58:32. | |
issues. For example, politicians have to be able to speak about the | :58:32. | :58:38. | |
issues, to put them forward in a coherent and reasonable proposals so | :58:38. | :58:43. | |
that UKIP don't get a groundswell on the basis that the issues are not | :58:43. | :58:46. | |
talked about, but I don't see them making significant headway in | :58:46. | :58:50. | |
Scotland. We have a Nistlerooy party in Scotland. | :58:50. | :58:59. | |
-- we have a nationalist party in Scotland that is what UKIP. | :58:59. | :59:04. | |
Mike Crockhart, are you worried that UKIP could finish ahead in the | :59:04. | :59:10. | |
by-election? I don't think so. If they can save their deposit, they | :59:10. | :59:15. | |
can be happy with that, but there is no great support for UKIP's policies | :59:15. | :59:20. | |
in Scotland. Of that I am sure. We used to benefit from being the party | :59:20. | :59:24. | |
of protest. That Mantell has been taken away from us. We have been in | :59:24. | :59:29. | |
Government in Westminster. We can no longer be the party that people turn | :59:29. | :59:36. | |
to when they want to, as David has said, to be a plague on the rest of | :59:36. | :59:41. | |
your houses. They are turning to UKIP for that but it is not an | :59:41. | :59:46. | |
endorsement of the policies of UKIP. How do you assess Nigel Farage and | :59:46. | :59:52. | |
the UKIP party? I think that people are mostly protesting at the Lib | :59:52. | :59:56. | |
Demes now, rather than giving their votes for that reason. I don't agree | :59:56. | :00:00. | |
for what UKIP stand for but I respect their right to say it. I | :00:00. | :00:06. | |
wish that those who protested that day had put their energy into the | :00:06. | :00:10. | |
arguments rather than shouting them down in the streets it was not | :00:11. | :00:14. | |
edifying for the country, but what excited me most about the package | :00:14. | :00:20. | |
was the arrival of Willie Young into the Aberdeen count there. So good | :00:20. | :00:27. | |
news. Firstly, I am hearing good news from Glenrothes. We are seeing | :00:27. | :00:31. | |
a significant swing to Labour in Aberdeen now as well. If it is | :00:31. | :00:39. | |
right, if what I am hearing is right, it is a 6 or 7% swing. Enough | :00:39. | :00:47. | |
to take out cask cask cask, and -- Kenny McAfghanistanily and Nicola | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
Sturgeon and that is why you are seeing the smiles on Labour faces. | :00:50. | :00:57. | |
Thank you very much. We can go back to Aberdeen, to Steve Godden at the | :00:57. | :01:06. | |
count with an update. Steven. The lull I spoke about is over. | :01:06. | :01:12. | |
People over there by the door lining up waiting for the arrival of Mark | :01:12. | :01:17. | |
McDonald, the SNP candidate. Willie Young arrived, the Labour candidate, | :01:17. | :01:22. | |
to huge applause. A sense that we are building to a kind of climax. | :01:22. | :01:27. | |
There is is a picture starting to emerge. All of the usual caveats | :01:27. | :01:34. | |
apply, but a picture of ral the SNP win winning -- really the SNP | :01:34. | :01:37. | |
winning the majority and Labour coming second and the Liberal | :01:37. | :01:40. | |
Democrats coming third. The feeling from the Liberal Democrats side of | :01:41. | :01:46. | |
thing is that they have picked up support in areas where they have | :01:46. | :01:54. | |
traditionally done well but were deserted in 2011. I am talking about | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
Dyce and Bridge of Don. So there is the perception that work has paid | :01:59. | :02:05. | |
off. The figures in terms of the share of the vote that are about 40% | :02:05. | :02:12. | |
for the SNP, about 30% for Labour and 8% or 9% for the Liberal | :02:12. | :02:17. | |
Democrats with the Conservatives in fourth. So things are starting to | :02:17. | :02:22. | |
emerge. Still no firm news on when the declaration will be made. Some | :02:22. | :02:28. | |
saying about 1. 30am. Others saying 2.00am. The voice of experience, | :02:28. | :02:35. | |
people saying probably nearer to 2.00am than 1. 30am. So we will | :02:35. | :02:41. | |
await the SNP's arrival here, so things starting to pick up here now. | :02:41. | :02:45. | |
And a quick word with Professor John Curtice on the provisional numbers | :02:45. | :02:49. | |
that Steven shared with us. There is a comparison nobody | :02:50. | :02:54. | |
mentioned. It is what happened in the constituency in the 2012 local | :02:54. | :02:58. | |
elections, we cannot say exactly what happened as the boundaries | :02:58. | :03:04. | |
don't much. On my calculations, the SNP got about 38% of the vote in the | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
questions in 2012. It sounds as though that this will be the same | :03:09. | :03:15. | |
again. Labour getting about 30%. So, yes, the gap between the parties is | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
closer. That, should say is the arrival of | :03:19. | :03:25. | |
Mark McDonald, the SNP candidate. Perhaps the next MSP for Aberdeen | :03:25. | :03:29. | |
Donside. So the gap will be closer but this | :03:29. | :03:34. | |
does not suggest that the SNP have gotten less popular now than they | :03:34. | :03:40. | |
were over 12 months ago, but we have to recognise that they do not retain | :03:40. | :03:45. | |
the high popularity that they had in 2011. We should not be surprised | :03:45. | :03:49. | |
that the Liberal Democrats came third. So again in truth, this is | :03:49. | :03:53. | |
going to maintain where they managed to be over 12 months ago, that is | :03:53. | :03:57. | |
what they should achieve. Now, I think that is visually, it | :03:57. | :04:02. | |
looks like a declaration of victory from Mark McDonald, even though we | :04:02. | :04:07. | |
don't have the formal results. He has his fists clenched for the | :04:07. | :04:11. | |
photographers. We have to say something about UKIP | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
it is a question of whether or not the glass is half full or half | :04:15. | :04:20. | |
empty. 5% of the vote would have been regarded as a remarkable | :04:20. | :04:25. | |
performance. They got 1% on the list vote in 2011. | :04:25. | :04:30. | |
Have they held a deposit in a first-past-the-post test in | :04:30. | :04:38. | |
Scotland? Not to my memory. But y what to bare in find is short | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
of the 20% vote that they got in Rotherham, in Middlesbrough, in | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
south shields or the average 25% of the vote that they were getting in | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
the English elections. This confirms that message that Scotland is not | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
immune to the rise of UKIP that's been going on but that like London, | :04:57. | :05:02. | |
UKIP are finding that Scotland is a much more difficult territory, not | :05:02. | :05:09. | |
least as in Scotland if you do feel strong strongly about what you are | :05:09. | :05:14. | |
concerned about, the feeling that you are being governed unnecessarily | :05:14. | :05:20. | |
by London, whereas in England the issue is about being governed too | :05:20. | :05:27. | |
much by Brussels and the immigration of immigration is an essential one | :05:27. | :05:37. | |
:05:37. | :05:37. | ||
for UKIP. Lots of holding going on, perhaps | :05:37. | :05:43. | |
they know more than 32, although everybody is expecting that the SNP | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
will be victorious in Aberdeen Donside tonight. The question is, to | :05:49. | :05:56. | |
what extent do they win, do what extent to the finish with a lead | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
over Labour, and to what extent does the Labour Party eat into the | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
league? If it is true that the Westminster coalition parties | :06:06. | :06:11. | |
flip-flopped their positions and the Liberal Democrats finish ahead of | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
the Conservatives, how do you view that? It was only in 2011 that Ross | :06:16. | :06:24. | |
Thomson manage to beat the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats | :06:24. | :06:31. | |
were third in 2007, 2003 and 1999. But they had a much higher share of | :06:31. | :06:41. | |
the vote, 17.1% in 1999, 15.4 in 2007. It is the 2011 Scottish | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
Parliament, the general election result, that was the anomaly. | :06:47. | :06:52. | |
Re-establishing their position as being third in the constituency. It | :06:52. | :06:57. | |
would be remarkable if UKIP had not gained something of a bounce, cause | :06:58. | :07:07. | |
:07:08. | :07:08. | ||
of their successes relatively in England, but 5% will not win too | :07:08. | :07:13. | |
many pies and peas. The candidates are in place at the camp, which | :07:13. | :07:22. | |
might mean that things are getting closer. What can you tell us? | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
getting there. All of the candidates are here. The last to arrive, Mark | :07:25. | :07:32. | |
McDonald. Use all the shots of him coming into the hall at the Beacon | :07:32. | :07:38. | |
Centre, he had his fists clenched, a triumphant entrance to the hall. The | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
feeling is he has done enough to win this, but the majority will be | :07:44. | :07:47. | |
reduced, that is the consensus. We are still waiting for the | :07:47. | :07:57. | |
declaration. We will find out what has happened. Willie Young came in | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
ten minutes before Mark McDonald, there was a big cheer for his | :08:01. | :08:06. | |
arrival, so they are all in the hall, still a fair bit of activity | :08:06. | :08:13. | |
going on, waiting for the declaration, but as I said, there is | :08:14. | :08:19. | |
a picture starting to emerge of the SNP winning this seat with a reduced | :08:19. | :08:26. | |
majority, the Labour Party share around 30%, compared to the SNP's | :08:26. | :08:31. | |
40%, and the Liberal Democrats in third place with nine or 10%. The | :08:31. | :08:37. | |
Conservatives in fourth place. All of the usual caveats apply, but that | :08:38. | :08:42. | |
is the chatter here in the Beacon Centre, so we are waiting for the | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
declaration, as we have been waiting all night. How is your trip down | :08:47. | :08:52. | |
memory lane going? It is going fairly well. I have been here | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
before, I played football outside, so this is a new experience, the | :08:57. | :09:05. | |
hall. I have spoken about some horror stories about the roundabout, | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
learning to drive there, and one of the schools that is involved in the | :09:10. | :09:14. | |
controversy about mergers, they were our bitter rivals at primary | :09:14. | :09:24. | |
:09:24. | :09:26. | ||
school, so it has been ingesting -- ingesting, speaking to people where | :09:26. | :09:31. | |
I grew up, seeing some familiar faces, but it does not matter why I | :09:31. | :09:37. | |
am here, it is why these people are here, and the declaration. We will | :09:37. | :09:44. | |
be their life when it happens. Talking of memory lane, it is that | :09:44. | :09:50. | |
time, it is 1:15am, and I promised that if we had not had a | :09:50. | :09:54. | |
declaration, we would take a trip down memory lane and dip into the | :09:55. | :10:00. | |
by-election archive. In 1982, Glasgow Hillhead was fiercely fought | :10:00. | :10:06. | |
by all parties. The SDP worthy winners, with Roy Jenkins taking | :10:06. | :10:14. | |
what had been a safe Tory seat. He is a look at how Vincent Hanna saw | :10:14. | :10:24. | |
:10:24. | :10:40. | ||
Cheering election time, Lascaux Corporation thence disused buildings | :10:40. | :10:49. | |
to political parties at �5 a week. The SDP grabbed the day centre. And | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
they stocked it with many of the ladies who do social democratic | :10:53. | :11:03. | |
:11:03. | :11:15. | ||
afternoon. He arrived with the flourish that befitted the tradition | :11:15. | :11:22. | |
of English politicians who have carpet in Scotland. Did not his | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
mentor Herbert Asquith find a seat in Scotland? He became Prime | :11:25. | :11:31. | |
Minister. Herbert Asquith was never reduced to campaigning outside the | :11:32. | :11:41. | |
Partick bingo hall. 43. It is not the sort of thing that he is good | :11:41. | :11:46. | |
at. Especially when there are not many voters around. Good afternoon, | :11:46. | :11:56. | |
:11:56. | :12:09. | ||
Roy Jenkins. How are you? Do you do you live? Clydebank. Quite a long | :12:09. | :12:19. | |
way? Not too bad.Outside the constituency. Only one person he | :12:19. | :12:25. | |
spoke to actually lived in Hillhead, and he was voting Labour. Good | :12:25. | :12:32. | |
afternoon, Roy Jenkins, where do you live? Hillhead.Outside the | :12:32. | :12:40. | |
constituency? He was finally forced to talk to the press for a while, | :12:40. | :12:48. | |
before wandering off to his committee rooms. Gerry Malone is 31, | :12:48. | :12:55. | |
a local solicitor who has been engaging and hard-working. As a | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
loyal defender of government policy, it was his bad luck that the | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
announcement of the Trident project last week provoked an alarmed | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
reaction even from Hillhead Tories, who live only 25 miles from the | :13:07. | :13:16. | |
base. He has paraded around with visiting politicians, like Ted | :13:16. | :13:22. | |
Heath, who always manages to conceal his distaste for the party | :13:22. | :13:31. | |
leadership. He is a Roman Catholic, anti-abortion and pro-hunting. He | :13:31. | :13:37. | |
was carefully -- he has carefully concealed any disagreements on party | :13:37. | :13:43. | |
policy. There now follows a party political cliche. There has been | :13:43. | :13:50. | |
speculation about whether he is wet. The Labour Party is the only party | :13:50. | :13:53. | |
that has the alternative to the disastrous economic policy of the | :13:53. | :14:00. | |
government. David Wiseman has been described as a Marxist, which he | :14:00. | :14:06. | |
does not deny. Helen Liddell, the Scottish party secretary, acted as a | :14:06. | :14:15. | |
nanny to ensure that her candidate kept to his or her script. | :14:15. | :14:21. | |
Everywhere he went, he was accompanied by political figures. | :14:21. | :14:26. | |
This MP even gave him the rosette with which at Warrington he gained | :14:26. | :14:33. | |
the lowest Labour vote since the war. Hillhead is usually on fertile | :14:33. | :14:37. | |
ground for Scottish Nationalists, but the polls have shown that by | :14:37. | :14:40. | |
dint of energy and personality, its cancer to James Heavey had made | :14:40. | :14:46. | |
tonight be a crucial factor in determining who wins or loses. In | :14:46. | :14:49. | |
the last few days, the polls have been dancing wildly about, | :14:49. | :14:53. | |
predicting a victory for conservatives, labour and SDP, and | :14:53. | :14:57. | |
the nerves of the party workers have been more than a little frayed, | :14:57. | :15:01. | |
which is why at the weekend no gimmick was left untried, no stop | :15:01. | :15:11. | |
:15:11. | :15:12. | ||
left and pulled. Hillhead went completely crazy. Early morning | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
found us shivering in a car park at the top of Crow Road, with 60 | :15:16. | :15:19. | |
excited Conservatives, doing strange things with their cars. Unused | :15:19. | :15:26. | |
onlookers hinted darkly of ancient Celtic rights and the party | :15:26. | :15:34. | |
organisers explained that it was a media event. They were trying to | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
spell their candidate's name in cars. Nobody seemed to know why. It | :15:38. | :15:43. | |
took an awfully long time. Meanwhile, the Labour campaign was | :15:43. | :15:53. | |
:15:53. | :15:58. | ||
similar -- formidable political machine, and the effort on Saturday | :15:58. | :16:04. | |
was immense. The tactics of keeping Mr Wiseman smiling and waving but | :16:04. | :16:07. | |
not saying a lot was having an effect on the polls. The | :16:07. | :16:13. | |
Conservatives had sent for a hoist, so that a handful of people other | :16:13. | :16:17. | |
than passing pilots could inspect their handiwork. We looked down and | :16:17. | :16:25. | |
waved. They looked up and waved back. Where do you live? Roy Jenkins | :16:25. | :16:30. | |
was canvassing of the Dumbarton Road. The press had been complaining | :16:30. | :16:34. | |
for days that they had not been able to watch him doing it, but when it | :16:34. | :16:40. | |
came, it was worth waiting for. is difficult being separated. How | :16:41. | :16:47. | |
are you? With great courtesy, he gave the voters the benefit of his | :16:47. | :16:55. | |
advice. Roy Jenkins is moving along. But he was accompanied by Bill | :16:55. | :16:59. | |
Rogers, doing his loudspeaker act, and who positioned himself as to | :16:59. | :17:04. | |
make it unlikely that anybody could hear a word that Roy Jenkins said. | :17:05. | :17:10. | |
The whole of the campaign was filled to the last day with loudspeakers, | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
music and cavalcades of canvases, harassing an electorate who were | :17:15. | :17:25. | |
:17:25. | :17:47. | ||
traditionally very cynical about all # Some folks work for Labour. | :17:47. | :17:57. | |
:17:57. | :18:02. | ||
# Some follow the Tory cloth. # In Westminster I will be. | :18:02. | :18:09. | |
# I'll leave behind my brains and mind. | :18:09. | :18:15. | |
# And try for an MBE. Campaigning has changed a bit since | :18:15. | :18:22. | |
then! You would be hard pushed to find haggis for 18p a pound! As | :18:23. | :18:29. | |
Vincent Hanna said, no gimmick left untried. That is still a feature of | :18:29. | :18:37. | |
by-elections. To remind you, this is a special from Newsnight Scotland, | :18:37. | :18:41. | |
for the Aberdeen Donside by-election. The SNP seeming | :18:41. | :18:47. | |
confident about their prospects of retaining the seat, with Mark | :18:47. | :18:52. | |
McDonald, just to the right of the screen, hoping to be elected as the | :18:52. | :18:57. | |
new MSP for Aberdeen Donside. Sometime between now and 2am, we | :18:57. | :19:05. | |
hope, we think, we will keep you across developments. Let's continue | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
the trip down memory lane. You have confessed already, Brian, that you | :19:09. | :19:18. | |
were there. I was the young face in the background. Gerry Malone later | :19:18. | :19:25. | |
became an MP for Aberdeen South. I caught a glimpse in that car park | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
stunt of a very active conservative but later and even more active | :19:29. | :19:33. | |
nationalist, he left the Tories over the steel industry. It looked like | :19:33. | :19:43. | |
him. I recall Roy Jenkins then, he was offered a glass of wine in the | :19:43. | :19:48. | |
elegant constituency rooms, and he said, a courageous vintage! I | :19:48. | :19:55. | |
thought that was very Roy Jenkins! Vincent Hanna, I did a piece at a | :19:55. | :19:59. | |
party conference, there was a search to get some jokes into Tony Blair's | :19:59. | :20:09. | |
:20:09. | :20:09. | ||
speech, and I asked Vincent Hanna, and Neil Callan -- Neil Kinnock had | :20:09. | :20:17. | |
talked about winning the last time, and it went, knock knock, Neal who? | :20:17. | :20:26. | |
That is politics! The Labour Party does not field Marxists! | :20:26. | :20:34. | |
knowingly! It was Helen Liddell, she is now in the House of Lords. I was | :20:35. | :20:40. | |
six years old in 1982, what about you? I was born in 1981.Just a | :20:40. | :20:50. | |
:20:50. | :20:51. | ||
baby! What about you? I was 19. Do you remember it? Yes, I was a lowly | :20:51. | :21:00. | |
party worker, but not for the SNP. I was a member of the Labour Party. I | :21:00. | :21:04. | |
was a supporter of the Labour Party, I helped out, and I subsequently saw | :21:04. | :21:12. | |
the light. I joined the SNP left and ten years later. I left the Labour | :21:12. | :21:17. | |
Party in the late 80s and join the SNP in 1990. I had always been a | :21:17. | :21:25. | |
supporter of devolution and devolution -- and independents. It | :21:25. | :21:30. | |
was almost inevitable that you got your party card with your 16th | :21:30. | :21:35. | |
birthday card, and that is what happened to me, but when I grew up a | :21:35. | :21:43. | |
bit, I decided it was not the party I wanted to support. It is the idea | :21:43. | :21:49. | |
of party workers, you heard it in the song, we have got to shout to | :21:49. | :21:53. | |
the party activists, they have done the hard graft, many of them were up | :21:53. | :21:58. | |
at the crack of dawn, they are watching the programme tonight, with | :21:58. | :22:04. | |
a suntan and a weary feeling in their legs. A lot of ordinary people | :22:04. | :22:11. | |
get up to play their part, and that is very healthy. David, what would | :22:11. | :22:17. | |
you say the big changes and similarities are over the 30 year | :22:17. | :22:23. | |
period in the way we do politics and how by-elections of Fort? There is a | :22:23. | :22:29. | |
lot more targeting of voters in elections now. In a by-election like | :22:29. | :22:34. | |
that, the parties knocked all the doors, whether people were likely to | :22:34. | :22:40. | |
be supported -- supportive or not, but now, work is done behind the | :22:40. | :22:46. | |
scenes. Today, you would see the parties focusing on knocking up | :22:46. | :22:56. | |
:22:56. | :22:57. | ||
their own supporters, pulling them out. | :22:57. | :23:03. | |
I have done two council elections in Edinburgh, but going back to 1982. I | :23:03. | :23:08. | |
was 16. I was not involved in politics. It was only at university | :23:08. | :23:13. | |
later, tla went around all of the university clubs. To Labour, to | :23:13. | :23:20. | |
liberal, to the SDP where, there were four of us and a dog. The SDP I | :23:20. | :23:25. | |
felt most at home with it was an exciting time. Breaking the mould of | :23:25. | :23:29. | |
British politics. We actually believed it would happen. It has | :23:29. | :23:34. | |
taken longer to achieve but I think we are managing it now. | :23:34. | :23:38. | |
Thank you very much. Lets cross to the count. Steve Godden is there. | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
What is happening, Steven, are we getting a result sometime soon? It | :23:43. | :23:48. | |
is starting to feel like we are moving towards a conclusion. The | :23:48. | :23:52. | |
party agents, the election agents were called into the corner a couple | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
of minutes ago for a final adjudication. So it feels like we | :23:56. | :24:01. | |
are moving to a conclusion. In the middle of the room it is not | :24:01. | :24:05. | |
scientific nor official but in the middle of the group of tables here, | :24:05. | :24:08. | |
the votes are laid out. The votes for each candidate. On the | :24:09. | :24:13. | |
right-handside are the votes for Mark McDonald there. Are six rows of | :24:13. | :24:17. | |
vouts for Mark McDonald, the SNP candidate. Next are rows of votes | :24:17. | :24:22. | |
for Willie Young, the Labour candidate. Four rows there. Next | :24:22. | :24:26. | |
down, the Liberal Democrats candidate, Christine Jardine, one | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
row there. Next to her the row of votes for the Conservative candidate | :24:30. | :24:35. | |
and fifth are the votes for UKIP. So it is not official it is not | :24:35. | :24:40. | |
confirmation, we are waiting for the declaration but it gives an | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
indication and backs up the way that people have been speaking about how | :24:43. | :24:48. | |
the contest is turning out. Thank you very much. | :24:49. | :24:55. | |
I heard Brian Taylor say if that was the very fiction stage, five minutes | :24:55. | :25:00. | |
do you think? I think so. It should be five minutes to then. | :25:00. | :25:05. | |
That is what it normally is. So, let's have a look at the results | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
from last time so we are aware of what we are comparing with. We will | :25:10. | :25:15. | |
do that in a moment or two. Are you starting to get excited, Professor | :25:15. | :25:20. | |
John Curtice? It could be a new fact for your book? Yes! If you asked me | :25:20. | :25:27. | |
at the beginning, thank goodness you did not but if indeed what we heard | :25:27. | :25:33. | |
earlier, it was something like 40% SNP, 30% Labour, that is what I | :25:33. | :25:39. | |
would have put the money on it is confirmation of what we learned in | :25:39. | :25:43. | |
the television 12 months ago, but it is exciting in the sense it is an | :25:43. | :25:47. | |
indication that this remarkably popular SNP government a government | :25:48. | :25:52. | |
that is popular for having been in power for six years, is, however, | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
beginning to find the tied a little more difficult to withstand than | :25:56. | :26:01. | |
perhaps was the case a few years ago. Certainly it is a reminder to | :26:01. | :26:06. | |
us, in context of the whole independence debate, not to assume, | :26:06. | :26:12. | |
even if the SNP remain pop lar, that they will do well in 2016, whether | :26:12. | :26:16. | |
or not we are voting as an independent country or as part of | :26:17. | :26:21. | |
the European Union to get an overall majority. A lot assumptions are | :26:21. | :26:26. | |
about what would happen if we are an independent Scotland it depends on | :26:26. | :26:31. | |
what the SNP do but it may be invalid. It may not be the SNP | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
running in Scotland, even if we were to vote for it. | :26:34. | :26:39. | |
I should say let's take a look at the results from the last time of | :26:40. | :26:45. | |
the Scottish general election in 2011. There it is, the SNP holding | :26:45. | :26:55. | |
:26:55. | :26:56. | ||
the seat. Brian Adam, the return with 14,790 votes. The Labour | :26:56. | :27:03. | |
candidate with 7,615. Ross Thomson, the candidate for them this time | :27:03. | :27:13. | |
:27:13. | :27:14. | ||
around, the Conservatives. He got 2,166. The Liberal Democrats, 1606 | :27:14. | :27:21. | |
and the others sharing 530 votes between them. There are many more | :27:21. | :27:24. | |
candidates in the by-election than there were the last time. That could | :27:24. | :27:31. | |
change a little. The majority for the SNP in 2011. The turn out on | :27:31. | :27:37. | |
that occasion was 47.3%. That is the result the last time. That is what | :27:37. | :27:41. | |
we are comparing against, I think that I am right to say? If the | :27:42. | :27:49. | |
Labour Party have indeed got about 30%. They are in truth only up about | :27:49. | :27:55. | |
1 to %, 2% than in 2011. Ir think we will be left the questions, whatever | :27:55. | :27:59. | |
the difficulties are facing the SNP government, I think that the Labour | :27:59. | :28:03. | |
Party are left with the question, at what point is the Scottish Labour | :28:03. | :28:07. | |
Party to come up with a message that means it begins to reengage with the | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
Scottish electorate as far as the Holyrood elections are concerned? | :28:12. | :28:16. | |
There is still a large question mark about the ability of the Labour | :28:16. | :28:21. | |
Party in Scotland to recover north of the border between now and 2016. | :28:21. | :28:25. | |
What is the answer to the professor's question, Kezia Dugdale? | :28:25. | :28:29. | |
That is fair commentary. We understand the challenge. We were | :28:29. | :28:34. | |
outed in 2011. We understand what to do for 2016. | :28:34. | :28:37. | |
But compare the position of the party in Scotland with the position | :28:37. | :28:40. | |
of the party at Westminster two years after suffering a serious | :28:40. | :28:46. | |
defeat in 2010. The Labour Party south of the border recovered | :28:46. | :28:49. | |
quickly then, you don't show signs of recovering on anything like the | :28:49. | :28:53. | |
same speed. We are working on transformational | :28:53. | :29:00. | |
change as to how we do everything from HQ structures to the message on | :29:00. | :29:06. | |
devolution to the policy going forward. 2016 is a long way. Joanne | :29:06. | :29:10. | |
Lamont is beating Alex Salmond week in, week out. We need more than that | :29:10. | :29:16. | |
to offer to the electorate, though, we are working on that. By 2016 we | :29:16. | :29:20. | |
will have a positive, aggressive message to take to the electorate, | :29:20. | :29:26. | |
to move the SNP out of office. And feen if you were able to turn | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
around the polls and win independent, it may be up to Labour | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
to decide what kind of country we become? Of course. The people of | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
Scotland get to choose. That is the point about independence. They will | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
get the Government that they want in 2016. That government will be, I | :29:42. | :29:46. | |
hope it will be an SNP one but it is up to the people to decide. That is | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
important a point. Some people mix up the things about effectively, | :29:50. | :29:56. | |
they don't like this SNP policy, or this SNP individual, therefore they | :29:56. | :29:59. | |
are against independence. Independence is not about the SNP | :29:59. | :30:02. | |
but about the people of Scotland getting to choose their future. This | :30:02. | :30:06. | |
is a different question as to whether or not the SNP wins the 2016 | :30:07. | :30:10. | |
election. In that light, is the Labour Party | :30:10. | :30:14. | |
giving thought to what the policies positions would be if Scotland did | :30:14. | :30:19. | |
become an independent country? don't see our politics from a | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
starting point around the constitution that is why Joanne | :30:23. | :30:27. | |
Lamont talks about a purpose. The values that we have as a country, | :30:27. | :30:33. | |
how we want to see them delivered. She started had an honest debate | :30:33. | :30:37. | |
about what to expect from Government, local government, | :30:37. | :30:42. | |
national government. We are having an honest debate. We will have an | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
offer on devolution and a policy platform ready for the moments that | :30:47. | :30:52. | |
we need them. So an independence manifesto up your | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
sleeve in case? What you would do with awful the powers that come with | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
independence? We would have a platform that talks about devolution | :31:00. | :31:04. | |
in the broadest sense. That is about what powers we give the local | :31:04. | :31:08. | |
government, what powers in the Scottish Parliament, what we do with | :31:08. | :31:13. | |
the powers and what we use power for should Scotland be independent. | :31:13. | :31:16. | |
includes the question as to whether or not if you were in a position it | :31:16. | :31:21. | |
run the Scottish government after 2016, it could be left in your hands | :31:21. | :31:28. | |
to deal with the issue of getting an independent into NATO and what stand | :31:28. | :31:34. | |
you take on Trident and the situation at Faslane if you find | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
yourself back in power. That is what the parties have to address with an | :31:38. | :31:42. | |
independent Scotland. At some point the Labour Party will have to tell | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
us as to whether or not it could be more accommodating to a UK | :31:45. | :31:51. | |
government on that issue, than so far we have been led by the SNP that | :31:51. | :31:56. | |
they would be if they were in power in Scotland. There is a duty for all | :31:56. | :32:02. | |
parties to spell out clear what the platforms are. What is your | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
position, the Labour Party's position on nuclear weapons? I don't | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
want to see nuclear weapons on Scottish soil. Is that Joanne | :32:09. | :32:17. | |
Lamont's position? You have to ask Joanne Lamont her view. I am asking | :32:18. | :32:22. | |
you, you are oppose opposed to nuclear weapons in Scotland, to | :32:22. | :32:27. | |
Trident? I want to ensure that this is no longer a tool that the | :32:27. | :32:34. | |
governments can levy with. I am interested, Jim Murphy is keen | :32:34. | :32:38. | |
on nuclear weapons, keen on replacing Trident, the leader in | :32:38. | :32:45. | |
London is keen on replacing Trident. It is fascinating put forward by an | :32:45. | :32:51. | |
SNP politician who has a broad spectrum on other policies. You are | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
right-wing and left-wing policies. That is very much to our credit too, | :32:55. | :32:59. | |
I think. But to be clear, as the issue has | :32:59. | :33:04. | |
been raised it is your position that the nuclear weapons that are on | :33:04. | :33:07. | |
Scottish territory at the moment, that the Trident programme should be | :33:07. | :33:13. | |
removed? It is my view I don't want to see nuclear weapons anywhere in | :33:13. | :33:18. | |
the world. I think that the Scots have a share shared vision. | :33:18. | :33:23. | |
Do you support the renewal of the Trident programme? No. It is a waste | :33:23. | :33:26. | |
of money. Money that could be better spent. | :33:26. | :33:32. | |
Thank you very much. David Mundell we have not heard from you. We | :33:32. | :33:36. | |
obviously know that the UK Government intends to renew Trident, | :33:36. | :33:41. | |
that is your stated position, but I am not clear, despite the fact... | :33:41. | :33:45. | |
Sorry, the Conservative spoigs to renew Trident. The Government | :33:45. | :33:52. | |
position is to hold a review and to make that decision in 2016. | :33:52. | :33:58. | |
Correct. The Conservative position is to renew. David Cameron visited a | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
nuclear submarine and stated that about what was not clear was whether | :34:02. | :34:05. | |
that would be sustainable if Scotland became an independent | :34:06. | :34:13. | |
country? Well the position as Mike points out for the Conservatives is | :34:13. | :34:17. | |
that we would renew Trident. That position is to retain the United | :34:17. | :34:23. | |
Kingdom. If Scotland became an independent country, might that | :34:23. | :34:31. | |
bounce the UK in to abandoning the plan to renew Trident? As I said | :34:31. | :34:35. | |
earlier, all sorts of things will be uncertain if Scotland becomes | :34:35. | :34:41. | |
independent. But the UK, would it be the position | :34:41. | :34:46. | |
of the Conservative Party it renew Trident, fully renew Trident if | :34:46. | :34:50. | |
Scotland became independent? The UK Government, indeed the Conservative | :34:50. | :34:53. | |
Party, are proceeding on the basis of Scotland remaining in the United | :34:54. | :35:00. | |
Kingdom. That is the answer. | :35:00. | :35:06. | |
The Defence Secretary conceded that contingency plans are being made? | :35:06. | :35:13. | |
don't they he conceded that significant contingency. | :35:13. | :35:19. | |
Insignificant? There are not significant contingency plans for | :35:19. | :35:22. | |
Scotland becoming independent. We believe that Scotland will be a | :35:22. | :35:25. | |
party of the United Kingdom, that our policies are based on Scotland | :35:25. | :35:30. | |
becoming a part of the United Kingdom. That it is a part of the | :35:30. | :35:33. | |
United Kingdom, sorry! It is getting very late. | :35:33. | :35:39. | |
It is. Our policy position is predicated on | :35:39. | :35:44. | |
Scotland remaining a part of the United Kingdom. Obviously it is | :35:44. | :35:48. | |
self-evident if Scotland votes to leave the United Kingdom, a whole | :35:48. | :35:57. | |
range of issues will be reassessed. And David does not want to base an | :35:57. | :36:00. | |
argument on the existence of independence, but it is not credible | :36:00. | :36:04. | |
to say within the Ministry of Defence that they are not preparing | :36:04. | :36:08. | |
for the possibility of independence. They are soldiers, of course they | :36:08. | :36:14. | |
are preparing for it. It strikes me if it comes to this, if the opinion | :36:14. | :36:18. | |
polls currently suggest otherwise but if it comes to it, if there is | :36:18. | :36:24. | |
independents, then Trident would be the timetable for it, the timetable | :36:24. | :36:28. | |
for the removal of it would be a bargaining counter for whoever is | :36:28. | :36:36. | |
the head of the Scottish government. The bargain counter would anybody | :36:36. | :36:43. | |
there for a membership with European and NATO. Seeking support in return | :36:43. | :36:46. | |
for being reasonable about the timetable for the withdrawal of | :36:46. | :36:49. | |
Trident. Mike Crockhart where are you | :36:49. | :36:59. | |
:36:59. | :37:01. | ||
personally on the Trident issue? position has been multilateral. The | :37:01. | :37:08. | |
maintenance of a minium deterrent. It is not a minimum deterrent. We | :37:08. | :37:13. | |
have managed to get the coalition government to carry out a review. | :37:13. | :37:20. | |
When do we get the results? Very soon. I have no idea what it says, | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
but I hope it identifies something which is cheaper than Trident, which | :37:25. | :37:34. | |
is a massive waste of money. should get rid of Trident and vote | :37:34. | :37:39. | |
yes in 2014, then we would be assured of it. The first Minister | :37:39. | :37:43. | |
has not said what the timetable would be. Some people say it might | :37:43. | :37:51. | |
take a decade. Can you put a time on it? No, it is part of a negotiation | :37:51. | :37:59. | |
settlement. It will be as thick and safe as it is possible to be. That | :37:59. | :38:04. | |
is the sensible approach, we would have to make sure it has got | :38:04. | :38:09. | |
somewhere safe to go. We understand these are dangerous weapons, and it | :38:09. | :38:17. | |
has to be done properly, so we can negotiated in a mature way. | :38:17. | :38:25. | |
become part of a nuclear reliance. All other countries in NATO sign up | :38:25. | :38:32. | |
to the use of nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland would take away | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
Trident but signup to a nuclear alliance, which all of the other | :38:36. | :38:42. | |
member states subscribe to the use of nuclear weapons. On that point, | :38:43. | :38:49. | |
all the other countries signup to NATO's rules, which include the | :38:49. | :38:55. | |
possibility of a first strike nuclear attack. Would an independent | :38:55. | :39:02. | |
Scotland, led by the SNP, signup to that? It is conditional, our | :39:02. | :39:05. | |
membership of NATO would be conditional on the basis we would | :39:05. | :39:15. | |
:39:15. | :39:17. | ||
not support nuclear weapons, we would not be part of... You cannot | :39:17. | :39:21. | |
go into NATO on a conditional basis! Other countries do that. They | :39:21. | :39:27. | |
do not have nuclear weapons and they do not allow them to come into the | :39:27. | :39:37. | |
air or those waters. We would be in the same position. Being in the same | :39:37. | :39:41. | |
position as other members is to sign up to NATO's rules, which include | :39:41. | :39:47. | |
the possibility... You can aspire for nuclear disarmament, but you | :39:47. | :39:52. | |
have to agree that NATO reserves the right under half of all of its | :39:52. | :39:58. | |
members to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. NATO is a club of | :39:58. | :40:07. | |
members. That is one of its rules. We would have a voice. It does not | :40:07. | :40:15. | |
operate as an independent body. would have to join on the basis of | :40:15. | :40:20. | |
the other members, you cannot come into a club and say, we are going to | :40:20. | :40:28. | |
have our own special rules. Will you in the event of independents accept | :40:28. | :40:32. | |
the existing terms of NATO membership that all other members | :40:32. | :40:38. | |
are signed up to? We do not support nuclear weapons. You want special | :40:38. | :40:44. | |
conditions of membership? Or the men -- or the terms accepted by other | :40:44. | :40:52. | |
members? Do you accept the existing rules or do you want special | :40:52. | :40:57. | |
arrangements? Neither. There are countries in NATO who do not allow | :40:57. | :41:07. | |
:41:07. | :41:12. | ||
NATO nuclear weapons. Do you accept first strike? We do not. Shared | :41:12. | :41:16. | |
defence is a normal, sensible mechanism for all of the European | :41:16. | :41:23. | |
countries in NATO. We will have time later to discuss that and other | :41:23. | :41:28. | |
topics in more detail, unless Stephen has exciting news for us. | :41:28. | :41:36. | |
What is the latest? It looks like it is imminent. In the corner of the | :41:36. | :41:40. | |
whole, the candidates and their agents have been called into one | :41:41. | :41:45. | |
final Hoddle, so I do not think we are far away. I have been sensing a | :41:45. | :41:51. | |
new emotion, of impatience, people 's attention is split between three | :41:51. | :42:00. | |
things, the stage, the ballot papers and the clock on the wall, which | :42:00. | :42:03. | |
reads 149 AM. I am hoping it will not be too much longer before you | :42:03. | :42:08. | |
can come back to us for a declaration. I think the clock might | :42:08. | :42:18. | |
be running fast in Aberdeen! I have got 1:48am. A little bit faster. | :42:18. | :42:23. | |
Aberdeen is forward-looking! I am made and the boy, but on this | :42:23. | :42:33. | |
:42:33. | :42:34. | ||
occasion, when you are covering that point where we need to cheer | :42:34. | :42:40. | |
ourselves up with another electoral fact from John Curtice. And his big | :42:40. | :42:50. | |
book of facts. Your second favourite fact! This book has a wonderful | :42:50. | :43:00. | |
:43:00. | :43:02. | ||
section on all sorts of trivia. For example... It is all in your head! | :43:02. | :43:08. | |
David Mundell and his colleagues have been worrying about | :43:08. | :43:12. | |
constituency redistribution, and they were desperate to ensure that | :43:12. | :43:17. | |
they had equality of electorates, to improve their chances of winning in | :43:17. | :43:20. | |
2015, but some of his colleagues scuppered House of Lords reform, | :43:20. | :43:24. | |
which gave Mike Crocker the opportunity to scupper the boundary | :43:24. | :43:34. | |
review. A minor piece of comfort to David, things are not quite as bad | :43:34. | :43:39. | |
as they have been in the past, because in 1935, in Rommel third in | :43:39. | :43:46. | |
Essex, 167,000 voters on the register. There is nowhere in | :43:46. | :43:53. | |
England that will be doing that, the Isle of Wight is the worst. Things | :43:53. | :43:57. | |
are not gerrymandered as badly as that. But it will be an important | :43:57. | :44:04. | |
issue in 2015. The Tories might not win because of the boundary issue. | :44:04. | :44:12. | |
As you can see, as John Curtice shared his electoral fact with us, | :44:12. | :44:18. | |
the electoral officer in Aberdeen is preparing to share the result. Let's | :44:18. | :44:22. | |
go live for the Aberdeen Donside declaration. The candidates are | :44:22. | :44:32. | |
:44:32. | :44:55. | ||
positioning themselves. Let's hear Good evening, everyone. Thank you | :44:55. | :45:03. | |
for your forbearance and patients. I, constituency returning officer, | :45:03. | :45:06. | |
declared the results of the verification process for the | :45:06. | :45:13. | |
Aberdeen Donside Scottish Parliament constituency. The total electorate | :45:13. | :45:23. | |
was 60,200 and 42. The total votes cast were 23,396. That means the | :45:23. | :45:33. | |
:45:33. | :45:37. | ||
turnout was 38.8%. I hereby give notice that the total number of | :45:37. | :45:42. | |
votes polled for each candidate at the election was as follows. Otto | :45:42. | :45:52. | |
:45:52. | :45:53. | ||
Ingles, UK Independence Party, 1128. Christine Jardine, Scottish Liberal | :45:53. | :46:03. | |
:46:03. | :46:04. | ||
Democrats, 1940. David Donald, Scottish National front, 249. Mark | :46:04. | :46:11. | |
McDonald, Scottish National Party, 9814. Tom Morrow, Scottish Christian | :46:11. | :46:21. | |
:46:21. | :46:22. | ||
party, 222. Rhonda rekey, Scottish Green party, 410. Ross Thomson, | :46:22. | :46:32. | |
:46:32. | :46:33. | ||
Scottish Conservatives and Unionists, 1791. James Shoal and, | :46:33. | :46:39. | |
Scottish Democratic Alliance, 35. Willie Young, Scottish Labour | :46:39. | :46:49. | |
:46:49. | :47:04. | ||
The total valid votes were 23,378. The total number of rejected votes | :47:04. | :47:09. | |
was 18 and the reason for rejection was as follows. Lack of official | :47:09. | :47:14. | |
mark or unique identifying mark, zero. Voting for more than one | :47:14. | :47:19. | |
candidate, four. Writing a mark by which the voter could be identified, | :47:19. | :47:25. | |
one. One mark or void for uncertainty, 13. That brings the | :47:25. | :47:33. | |
total to 18 rejected votes. I hereby declare that the following candidate | :47:33. | :47:38. | |
is duly elected to serve as a member of the Scottish parliament for the | :47:38. | :47:42. | |
Aberdeen Donside constituency. That is Mark McDonald, Scottish National | :47:42. | :47:52. | |
:47:52. | :48:24. | ||
and your team, for all of your work to ensure that this by-election ran | :48:24. | :48:27. | |
smoothly? I thank all of the staff at the polling stations and those | :48:27. | :48:32. | |
who have been here tonight. Often, you feel like this is us going | :48:32. | :48:36. | |
through the motions, but genuinely, this would not be possible without | :48:36. | :48:41. | |
your efforts, and we thank you. I speak for all of the candidates when | :48:41. | :48:46. | |
I say so. I thank the police for ensuring an orderly by-election took | :48:46. | :48:52. | |
place. I thank my fellow candidates for a robust by-election campaign. I | :48:52. | :48:57. | |
wish to give special thanks to my campaign team, led by my agent, | :48:57. | :49:06. | |
Kevin Stewart. The many activists who came through to support me in | :49:06. | :49:11. | |
this campaign, and I wish to thank my family, my mother, my wife and my | :49:11. | :49:17. | |
children, who both should be in their beds, but for all of the | :49:17. | :49:22. | |
support they gave me in keeping me sane, or as sane as you can be in a | :49:22. | :49:28. | |
by-election campaign. It shows the people of Aberdeen Donside back the | :49:28. | :49:33. | |
delivery of universal benefits, free personal care and free | :49:33. | :49:35. | |
prescriptions. They back the council tax freeze and reject the Labour | :49:35. | :49:45. | |
:49:45. | :49:49. | ||
cuts commission. They back the local schools being kept open and say to | :49:49. | :49:59. | |
:49:59. | :49:59. | ||
Labour, hand off, Middleton Park and Branbrae. They back a sensible | :49:59. | :50:03. | |
approach to improving Aberdeen's transport infrastructure and reject | :50:03. | :50:11. | |
Labour's plans to eject people in Middlefield. I want to thank the | :50:11. | :50:15. | |
people of Aberdeen Donside for putting their faith in me. I know | :50:15. | :50:20. | |
that turn out is low, that serves as a lesson to all, that we as | :50:20. | :50:23. | |
politicians and political parties have much to do to inspire people | :50:23. | :50:28. | |
and take stock of that and look at what we can do to ensure that people | :50:28. | :50:33. | |
come out to vote at election times. I have a tough act to follow. I | :50:33. | :50:39. | |
pledge to work hard and earn trust in the way that Brian Adam did. I | :50:39. | :50:45. | |
stood in 2004, I received 51 votes. So I think that this is probably | :50:45. | :50:52. | |
progress. I cannot help but think of Brian at this time. In 1988, Brian | :50:52. | :50:57. | |
Adam was the only SNP councillor in the city of Aberdeen, today we have | :50:57. | :51:02. | |
15. In 2003 he became the first constituency member of Parliament in | :51:02. | :51:07. | |
Aberdeen, against the national swing. Brian was a pine year for the | :51:07. | :51:12. | |
Scottish National Party, a year for the movement. He is deeply missed by | :51:13. | :51:22. | |
all, but I know he would be proud of us today. | :51:22. | :51:30. | |
Brian was not just a friend and colleague but a machinor... The new | :51:30. | :51:36. | |
MSP, Mark McDonald, paying tribute to Brian Adam. His death caused the | :51:36. | :51:42. | |
by-election. SNP holding Aberdeen Donside. Mark McDonald with 9,814 | :51:42. | :51:49. | |
votes. Labour's Willie Young in second place with 7,789. Christine | :51:50. | :51:55. | |
Jardine for the Liberal Democrats, moving to third place for her party, | :51:55. | :52:01. | |
1,940. Pushing Ross Thomson, the Conservative candidate, in to fourth | :52:01. | :52:09. | |
place with 1,791 votes and the other parties between them, sharing 2,044, | :52:09. | :52:12. | |
but Professor John Curtice which confirm that UKIP's performance was | :52:12. | :52:17. | |
not enough to hold their deposit as they predicted earlier in the | :52:17. | :52:21. | |
programme. So the SNP holding Aberdeen Donside, the majority over | :52:22. | :52:25. | |
2,000. There is the share of the 2,000. There is the share of the | :52:25. | :52:33. | |
vote. 42% for the SNP, 33.3% for Labour. 8.3 for the Liberal | :52:33. | :52:39. | |
Democrats, 7. 7% for the Conservatives, and 8. 7% tor the | :52:39. | :52:42. | |
others. -- for the others. | :52:42. | :52:49. | |
Now let's have a look at the change. The SNP down 13%. Labour up 5%. The | :52:49. | :52:55. | |
Lib Demes up 2%. No change for the Lib Demes up 2%. No change for the | :52:55. | :52:58. | |
Tories, the others gaining 7%. So in this by-election there has | :52:58. | :53:07. | |
been a swing to Labour from the SNP of 9.1 t 2%. | :53:07. | :53:14. | |
Now let's get reaction to the result. Firstly from Labour's's | :53:14. | :53:20. | |
Kezia Dugdale. There was -- fistly from Labour's Kezia Dugdale, there | :53:20. | :53:24. | |
were about 2,000 votes in it but not close enough. | :53:24. | :53:30. | |
That is a big headway forward. A 9.1% swing from SNP to Labour. | :53:30. | :53:37. | |
Enough to take out many. 0.4%, you would have had Nicola Sturgeon. | :53:37. | :53:42. | |
There was talk of a fight become. You have that in the result. It is a | :53:42. | :53:47. | |
long way to go until 2016 but a great start. | :53:47. | :53:53. | |
A start that has you worried? am delighted for Mark McDonald. He | :53:53. | :53:59. | |
did a great job. I am delighted for him. My thoughts are with Brian | :53:59. | :54:04. | |
Adam's family. We didn't want to be here today, but I am delighted for | :54:04. | :54:09. | |
Mark McDonald. This is six years into an SNP government. We have held | :54:09. | :54:12. | |
the seat comfortably. Professor John Curtice was talking about the | :54:12. | :54:20. | |
comparison with the 2012 results, our vote was 42%. 39% five years | :54:20. | :54:29. | |
ago. Labour was 43% then, p is 33% today. Clearly no way forward for | :54:29. | :54:35. | |
Labour. Theres have been swings before, and Labour has said is a | :54:35. | :54:42. | |
disastrous result but a 9% swing failing to make a impression is | :54:42. | :54:50. | |
disastrous for Labour. They have made no gains ahall. -- at all here. | :54:50. | :54:56. | |
And it was said that this was the endorsement for the principle of | :54:56. | :55:00. | |
universalism and a rejection of benefits, a rejection of Labour's | :55:01. | :55:06. | |
cuts commission? If that is what Mark McDonald wants to read into the | :55:06. | :55:10. | |
result. It suits the SNP's wider political message. | :55:10. | :55:14. | |
You can't get away from the fact that voters in Aberdeen Donside | :55:14. | :55:20. | |
endorsed the SNP. If it was not a vote for universalism, against the | :55:20. | :55:26. | |
cuts, what was it? It was a 9% swing to Labour. That is not endorsement | :55:26. | :55:31. | |
of the SNP government at all. But the SNP have been elected. | :55:32. | :55:38. | |
But we never expected to win. It was a 7,000 majority. The SNP going into | :55:38. | :55:45. | |
it with 55% share election share of the vote that is huge. We can't | :55:45. | :55:49. | |
expect to overturn it. We had a go at it. We have to present a | :55:49. | :55:54. | |
platform. I spoke to Willie Young the oter | :55:54. | :56:00. | |
day, he said he was going to win. Let's bring in Mike Crockhart. Some | :56:00. | :56:05. | |
improvement, pushing the Tories into fourth place but no real sign of a | :56:05. | :56:13. | |
recovery in the Lib Dem fortunes? This was the usual two-party squeeze | :56:13. | :56:18. | |
in a by-election it is difficult to make headway against that. | :56:18. | :56:22. | |
Especially with the resources thrown into it by the two parties. So a | :56:22. | :56:27. | |
move forward is welcomed. We were out on the doorsteps. It was far | :56:27. | :56:33. | |
better than it has been in the last two years. We were there enthusing | :56:33. | :56:37. | |
supporters, signing up members, speaking to people on the doorstep | :56:37. | :56:44. | |
in that local area. This is a step forward. I con congreat -- I | :56:45. | :56:49. | |
congratulate Christine Jardine. And from you, David, you, pushed | :56:49. | :56:54. | |
down the rankings into fourth, is that support leaking to UKIP, who | :56:54. | :57:00. | |
did relatively well? Our vote stayed the same. I think that Ross Thomson | :57:00. | :57:04. | |
did a good job. I am positive. I think that people like Ross Thomson | :57:04. | :57:08. | |
are the future of the Conservative Party. As Mike says when people | :57:08. | :57:13. | |
perceive there is a two-horse race, they opt for one of those parties, | :57:13. | :57:17. | |
but I think that holding our vote, fighting a positive campaign, I | :57:17. | :57:20. | |
think that is a positive message to take forward from this by-election. | :57:20. | :57:24. | |
Thank you very much. We will get more analysis from Brian | :57:24. | :57:31. | |
and John in a moment, but now let's cross to Aberdeen, to Donside, to | :57:31. | :57:36. | |
the new MSM for Aberdeen Donside. Firstly, congratulations to you, | :57:36. | :57:40. | |
Mark McDonald. Were there times when you started to bite your nails a | :57:40. | :57:46. | |
little? It was closer than some are predicting? Well the important thing | :57:46. | :57:51. | |
was that we were focussed on holding the seat. We have healed the seat. | :57:51. | :57:56. | |
We are satisfied we have won the by-election. Now we build ogen | :57:56. | :57:59. | |
legacy of Brian Adam and work hard for the communities of Aberdeen | :57:59. | :58:04. | |
Donside that is what I have pledged to do as the new MSP. | :58:05. | :58:10. | |
Obviously you have won it is an endorsement but Labour have a claim | :58:10. | :58:16. | |
to be making progress, eating at the? SNP's majority. As Kezia | :58:16. | :58:20. | |
Dugdale pointed out, swings like this would take out some of your | :58:20. | :58:25. | |
Cabinet ministers in a general election? Well, by-elections, glen, | :58:25. | :58:31. | |
as you know, they are notoriously difficult issues on which to predict | :58:31. | :58:35. | |
wider swings. We have seen that in many by-elections in the past. | :58:35. | :58:40. | |
Swings that happen and by-elections don't necessarily follow through to | :58:40. | :58:44. | |
a general election. There is a strong focus on a constituency for a | :58:44. | :58:49. | |
long period of time. What what we saw here were the opposition parties | :58:49. | :58:54. | |
throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the campaign. I am | :58:54. | :58:59. | |
delighted to have held the seat. Now it is my job to build on the trust | :58:59. | :59:07. | |
that has been put in me and to help build the party for the future. That | :59:07. | :59:12. | |
is what Brian Adam has done. Labour described you as a "yes" man | :59:12. | :59:17. | |
for Alex Salmond. Is there anything to say to him now that involves the | :59:17. | :59:22. | |
word "no"? Well, Labour have called me all sorts of things during the | :59:22. | :59:27. | |
campaign. They called me a boy trying to do a man's job. They have | :59:27. | :59:32. | |
called me a "yes" man, saying I have not had a proper job in my life. | :59:32. | :59:39. | |
They want to engage in name kaling -- name calling, that is fine by me, | :59:39. | :59:45. | |
but the idea that somehow you must be disloyal in order to ab abgood | :59:46. | :59:51. | |
questions MP, I mean Brian Adam was the Chief Whip of the party. | :59:51. | :59:56. | |
Responsible that the party members voted the right way. He was a strong | :59:56. | :00:01. | |
voice for Aberdeen Donside. He knew how to fight their corner. I learned | :00:01. | :00:05. | |
from Brian Adam. I don't need lessons from the Labour Party in | :00:05. | :00:08. | |
representing the questions. I learned from Brian Adam, that is | :00:08. | :00:11. | |
what I will be putting into practise. | :00:11. | :00:18. | |
Things have moved quickly for you in your political life. Elected to a | :00:18. | :00:28. | |
young councillor. Do you wish you may have had a -- aanother life | :00:28. | :00:32. | |
before becoming a politician? happy with what I have done. I have | :00:32. | :00:38. | |
been a long-time representing my communities. I grew up in the area, | :00:38. | :00:42. | |
I represented that, I feel there is no greater honour in politics than | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
to represent the area that you live in. That is what I will be doing now | :00:47. | :00:51. | |
for Aberdeen Donside. What do you say to people that | :00:51. | :00:55. | |
actually we need more politicians, more in Parliament who have actually | :00:55. | :01:00. | |
had a career in some other areas of life, who have done another job, who | :01:00. | :01:05. | |
can bring that experience into Parliament? I think that life | :01:05. | :01:09. | |
experiences are about more than what you do for a job. That is why they | :01:09. | :01:13. | |
call it life experience, not work experience. I am raising a disabled | :01:13. | :01:18. | |
child. I have many experiences from that, that will allow me to | :01:18. | :01:24. | |
empathise with people, relate to them and work hard on issues for | :01:24. | :01:29. | |
instance my campaign on autism. Working with people with autism, | :01:29. | :01:33. | |
ensuring that they get the support that we want to see. | :01:33. | :01:42. | |
These are ish us that concern you, about in terms of delivering for | :01:42. | :01:48. | |
Donside Donsiden -- Aberdeen Donside, what are you going to do? | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
am going to have a meeting about the bonkers proposals to close the local | :01:53. | :02:00. | |
schools. There have been no words back on that parents have been left | :02:00. | :02:04. | |
with months of anxiety. It is time to call that to a halt. That is one | :02:04. | :02:13. | |
of the first things that I will do. Mark McDonald, the MSP for SNP, once | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
again, congratulations on your win. Thank you very much. | :02:17. | :02:22. | |
Let's speak to Brian Taylor and Professor John Curtice, you have | :02:22. | :02:26. | |
been chewing over the numbers, anything you spotted that we have | :02:26. | :02:34. | |
not discussed? Clearly the people should be congreat lated on the | :02:34. | :02:41. | |
victory. Now the shares. The share, the decline of the share for the | :02:41. | :02:47. | |
Labour Party, comparing it with the declines in 2009 it is on the high | :02:47. | :02:53. | |
side. One could argue it is because of this vote. On the other hand Mark | :02:53. | :02:56. | |
McDonald is not a new kid on the block. He has been representing the | :02:56. | :03:02. | |
area for a while. So he was a strong candidate, but saying this in the | :03:02. | :03:07. | |
sense to remind us, how the ballot in 2014 is a different contest from | :03:07. | :03:12. | |
a Scottish Parliament election, if you put together the votes cast for | :03:12. | :03:17. | |
candidates who were in favour of independence, if I have all of the | :03:17. | :03:24. | |
candidates right, it is 44%. There is a clear reminder that yes the SNP | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
can win elections, getting a majority in Parliament on less than | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
50% of the vote, but they cannot win a referendum without 50% of the | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
vote. There is no evidence of that in the by-election. Even if you read | :03:37. | :03:44. | |
it in a more fasile way, that there is evidence of the "yes" side being | :03:44. | :03:46. | |
able to win in this particular part of Scotland. | :03:46. | :03:50. | |
You were asking Mark McDonald about what he has done, one thing he has | :03:50. | :03:56. | |
done is that he was a stand-up comedian. Most of the other | :03:56. | :04:01. | |
politicians are just unintentional gifted amateurs, he does it for | :04:01. | :04:07. | |
real. On this occasion, you would say, looking at the results that | :04:07. | :04:15. | |
Joey Harper's boy has won over Alec McLeish's lad, but learning on the | :04:15. | :04:24. | |
night and perhaps making progress. Labour are allowed to the -- to | :04:24. | :04:30. | |
point to the swing of 9%, but the drop is quite substantial. The point | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
that Kezia Dugdale is making about translating this into general | :04:35. | :04:43. | |
elections in other questions, is, as I am sure she knows, that the swing | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
does not translate into a general election situation, this is is a | :04:47. | :04:50. | |
by-election situation. The Liberal Democrats, having held off the | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
difficult situation that they are facing across the UK, reverting to | :04:55. | :05:00. | |
third place over the Conservatives, the Conservatives are slightly down. | :05:00. | :05:07. | |
It is down about 0.4% on a previous vote, but perhaps the Tories will | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
take comfort from having held off the challenge of UKIP. | :05:11. | :05:18. | |
And to confirm UKIP did not hold their deposit? That 478% of the | :05:18. | :05:24. | |
votes. So they failed. Having managed to do so badly in | :05:24. | :05:29. | |
2011, it was difficult for the vote to go down, but to put it into | :05:29. | :05:34. | |
perspective, the vote of 8% is half the level that it was in 2007 in | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
this questions. There is still a long way to go, Mike, before you | :05:38. | :05:42. | |
have crawled back up to the respectable position in Scottish | :05:42. | :05:50. | |
politics. Of course, we now have -- are in the position where we are | :05:50. | :05:53. | |
waiting for the revival of the Conservative Party in Scotland. It | :05:53. | :05:58. | |
is long awaited, but it is still show nothing evidence of returning | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
there. That is another miserable result for the Conservative Party in | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
Scotland. Faced with that question, how to get yourselves back into the | :06:08. | :06:13. | |
serious game north of the border. Let's catch a question with Steve | :06:13. | :06:23. | |
Godden. Who is with you. You said that you could win this, you have | :06:23. | :06:29. | |
not, what they did difference? put up a positive campaign, we are | :06:29. | :06:35. | |
disappointed, but the vote has gone up substantially, which is good, the | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
SNP vote has gone down substantially, so we are getting | :06:38. | :06:45. | |
closer, which is positive. What are you taking from this? Great | :06:45. | :06:47. | |
satisfaction, because we have increased our share of the vote | :06:48. | :06:53. | |
substantially. How much of this was about your record at council level | :06:53. | :06:58. | |
and some of the decisions that have been unpopular? We have fought a | :06:58. | :07:03. | |
positive campaign, we spoke about issues that were for the people of | :07:03. | :07:09. | |
Aberdeen Donside, the SM people had no control over those issues, such | :07:09. | :07:14. | |
as school closures and council tax, because that is in the gift of the | :07:14. | :07:20. | |
local authority. We have spoken about getting fairer funding for the | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
city, some think we need to progress. What about independence | :07:24. | :07:29. | |
and the referendum? How did that play for you? A lot of people | :07:29. | :07:38. | |
speaking to us about it. Mark McDonald said not so long ago that | :07:39. | :07:42. | |
if the vote was to be taken yesterday, the people of Aberdeen | :07:42. | :07:50. | |
Donside would reject independence. People said to us they did not want | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
independence. People who voted SNP still do not wanted. But we will | :07:53. | :07:59. | |
look at that next year. You said it was a strong issue for you. Why | :07:59. | :08:04. | |
could you not make more of it? You allowed the SNP to fight this | :08:04. | :08:12. | |
election on their terms. Both sides fought what they thought was | :08:12. | :08:14. | |
important. We fought on issues that the Scottish parliament can | :08:14. | :08:19. | |
determine its position on, infrastructure. We spoke about | :08:19. | :08:27. | |
fairer funding. The SNP fought a negative campaign based on local | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
issues, things they have got no locus on. We are positive, happy, I | :08:32. | :08:37. | |
am delighted with the way things have happened, I thought a positive | :08:37. | :08:44. | |
campaign. That is it from Aberdeen tonight, just to sum up, the SNP | :08:44. | :08:49. | |
have won the seat with a reduced majority from the last time, 2000 | :08:49. | :08:56. | |
down, from 7000. The Labour Party in second place, Liberal Democrats in | :08:56. | :08:59. | |
third place, they are speaking positively, and the Conservatives in | :08:59. | :09:05. | |
fourth place. It has been a long night, impatience towards the end, | :09:05. | :09:09. | |
but we now know where we stand, and the arguments will continue. From | :09:09. | :09:18. | |
Aberdeen, it is good night. Thank you, Stephen. A final word | :09:18. | :09:27. | |
from all on our panel in Glasgow. Final thoughts, Mike? The one thing | :09:27. | :09:34. | |
I would like to pick up on, John Curtice talked about 44% support, if | :09:34. | :09:41. | |
you aggregate the candidates, supporting independence. It is an | :09:41. | :09:47. | |
important point, because that is the support of the candidates, not | :09:47. | :09:54. | |
support for independence. A lot of people voted for parties and | :09:54. | :09:56. | |
candidates supporting independence, but they do not support it | :09:56. | :10:04. | |
themselves. Having got this out of the way, we can get the SNP talking | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
about independence again, because the more we get that, the less | :10:07. | :10:13. | |
support there is for it, so I look forward to that. A good night for | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
the Labour Party, three by-elections in Scotland today, 5% up in | :10:17. | :10:23. | |
Aberdeen, we won in Glenrothes, the local government, and one in | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
Edinburgh, and we will have a Labour gain in Edinburgh. A good couple of | :10:28. | :10:36. | |
days. It is a poor night for the Labour Party. Six years into an SNP | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
government, you hear the other parties say, governments never win | :10:39. | :10:46. | |
by-elections in mid-term, but we have proven that is not the case. We | :10:46. | :10:49. | |
surveyed 19,000 people on the independence question in Aberdeen | :10:49. | :10:59. | |
:10:59. | :11:01. | ||
Donside, 34% yes, 29% no, 37% don't know. It was clear that there is | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
support for independence, over 19,000 people. I take heart from | :11:04. | :11:11. | |
that. We can convince the rest of people. I do not think this will | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
have any effect on the outcome of the referendum. It is clear that | :11:16. | :11:21. | |
people are prepared to vote SNP in Scottish Parliament elections and | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
council elections when they do not support independence. We saw in the | :11:25. | :11:31. | |
debate we had earlier in the hall in Aberdeen, this election was fought | :11:31. | :11:35. | |
on local issues in that constituency. From an outside point | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
of view, photos were deciding in a negative way who was more culpable | :11:39. | :11:45. | |
for issues around the roundabout, so to speak, whether it was Labour or | :11:45. | :11:52. | |
the SNP, and they have decided it was the Labour council. We have gone | :11:52. | :11:59. | |
full circle! Back to the roundabout again! Thank you for staying with | :11:59. | :12:08. | |
us. Last words from John Curtice. There is a reminder to political | :12:08. | :12:14. | |
parties, even if the SNP are currently majoring on what they | :12:14. | :12:20. | |
think is an unpopular policy stance, independence, they can still | :12:20. | :12:27. | |
do well in elections. We should not discount the possibility that | :12:27. | :12:32. | |
Scotland might folk know in 2014, but we should not presume that the | :12:32. | :12:35. | |
SNP will lose the position of being the largest hearty in the Scottish | :12:36. | :12:42. | |
Parliament in 2016. These issues are divorced to some degree, and we are | :12:42. | :12:48. | |
looking at a party that has embedded itself as Scotland's party, and | :12:48. | :12:52. | |
dislodging it will not be that easy, even if it does end up losing the | :12:53. | :13:01. | |
referendum. I take three things from the night. I agree, I do not think | :13:01. | :13:07. | |
there is a lead through from this to September 2014, of course this was a | :13:07. | :13:09. | |
by-election for the Scottish Parliamentary constituency which was | :13:09. | :13:19. | |
:13:19. | :13:21. | ||
fought on local issues. They are important. Secondly, it tells us | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
that the two parties who will be fighting most obviously to be in | :13:25. | :13:30. | |
command of the Scottish Parliament when those elections come round our | :13:30. | :13:35. | |
labour and the SNP, they still be predominant parties. But the biggest | :13:35. | :13:41. | |
thing it tells us, thank you to those viewers who stuck with us! A | :13:41. | :13:48. | |
collective round of applause! Devotion above and beyond! And Mark | :13:48. | :13:58. | |
McDonald is the winner. The only thing that disappoints me, you had | :13:58. | :14:07. | |
promised to sing if it got to that stage! If it got to 3am! It would | :14:07. | :14:14. | |
have to be the Northern lights! is for a future programme! Thank you | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
to you for staying up until this late hour to watch our coverage of | :14:18. | :14:25. | |
the Aberdeen Donside by-election. It has been the SNP's night. Mark | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
McDonald elected as the MSP, holding the constituency for the SNP. The | :14:30. | :14:37. | |
Labour Party making up some ground, but not quite enough. Alex Salmond | :14:37. | :14:39. |