20/06/2013 Newsnight Scotland


20/06/2013

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forget. But if they spend a moment taking pictures, what is it exactly

:00:03.:00:13.
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that they will remember? Welcome to Newsnight Scotland for our

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by-election special. Voters in Aberdeen Donside have been to vote

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for the new MSP. The count is underway and we are only to bring

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you live coverage of the result it comes. This is the scene where the

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votes are stacking up. Here in Glasgow, we will have commentary

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from cross panel of politicians and from our resident experts, Brian

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Taylor. The SNP are defending a pretty big majority but when the

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Scottish Parliament was first established, this part of Aberdeen

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voted Labour. Tonight should be good. Next to you, politics

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Professor John Curtice. We should not assume it will be an easy night

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for the SNP. We should remember that governments usually do badly in

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by-elections in the crucial question is how badly they could suffer.

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by-election was called following the death of Brian Adam. They are hoping

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to hold the seat and labour is hoping to reduce if not overcome the

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SNP's majority. Reporting from the count, our political correspondent.

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It has been a long campaign and the boxes have started to arrive with

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the counting well underway. Everyone involved and this should know where

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they stand by 2am. That's the hours away! A lot of talking to do between

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now and then. More from Aberdeen soon but first of all, let me

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introduce our panel. They are the Conservative MP David McDowell, who

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is the party chairman in Scotland. The Scottish National party, Glasgow

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SNP. Scottish Labour's representative is a Lothians MSP and

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for the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Liam McArthur, who is the MSP for

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me. -- Orkney. Labour are the challengers here, what are you

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hearing? Nobody wants this, it is very sad indeed under the

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circumstances. 50% of the vote is the big figure I am looking for. You

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are not expecting to make enough progress to overtime revote? They

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have a majority of 7000 year, one of the biggest in the Scottish

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Parliament. It would be a huge effort to travel that over. How big

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Enoch do you think they will take? From the first opening remarks, it

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is a sad occasion and people will be thinking of Brian Adam at this

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election but it has a remarkable lack of ambition shown there. The

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fact the SNP is and with a shout of retaining its seat six years in to

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government, midterm on a second term shows how remarkable the team and

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the vision have been for Scotland. Actually, we have shown in the past

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that when it comes to by-elections against governing parties, we have

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achieved swings of 22% and over. A much more modest swing is required

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by Labour to take that seat. We will be looking to hold onto that. Should

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you not be able to beat the SNP six years then? This is the SNP's

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heartland with a 7000 majority which is huge. It would take a 16% swing

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to bring it back into labour's hands. He has put everything he

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possibly could and this. That is how important it is to the SNP. Let's

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bring in the Conservatives. Eat or the last time. What would you

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consider adding inevitable result? -- a poor third. We have fought a

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positive campaign with the young and positive candidates to put our

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message over. I am not anticipating a Conservative gain the same.

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Really! We got 4% of the vote on the council elections and do not even

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have a counsellor with the constituency. We just wanted to put

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out a positive message to show we are out and about and they think

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Ross Thomson did an excellent job on that. It is very sad, the loss of

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Brian Adam, and I knew him very well back in the Scottish Parliament in

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1989 and he is one of the people who shoot Scottish politics. The Liberal

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Democrats starting from fourth position. Facing a challenge from

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UKIP. They have set their sights on making some sort of breakthrough in

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Scottish politics. Any chance they could beat you to fourth place?

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Three hours away from the result, I am not privy to any advance

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knowledge of how it is likely to unfold, but I would like to add my

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voice to the comments from all the panellists about Brian Adam. The

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respect towards and was exemplified by the tributes paid to him and he

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was always a source of sound advice and good counsel. NK is of the

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campaign, and very energetic campaign has been fought. I am not

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expecting any great surprises but the campaign has been good in terms

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of energising our supporter base. We will see what happens but I think

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she has to be commended on fighting an excellent campaign. We will let

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you rest your voices for rabbits because you may have a lot of

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talking to do and we can go live to Aberdeen. We can talk to him now.

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What is the latest, Stephen? A lot of poker faces on show at the

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moment. They have been counting the votes for an hour or so. The

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election agents are aware and we are trying to get a sense of what is

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going on. I mention that already the rumours are starting to fly. The

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first remark is of a low turnout so people are talking of our turnout

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below 40%. It could be some time before we get any confirmation but

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as we said, nobody giving much away so far and we are expecting that the

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declaration could go between one a.m. And 2am, at the latest.

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Everyone then here's hoping it comes earlier than that but the

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confirmation will come and we should get a sense over the next hour of

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how things are starting to unfold. Perhaps you can concern to us when

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it comes in the turnout. What are you hearing from the different

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camps? Labour are expecting to make some progress but not to win the

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seat. The SNP are confident, as that's reflected in the code itself?

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-- code. What has been said so far is that the theme is local issues,

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not national issues. People are looking at this interested in how

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the referendum will factor alone, but it seems very much this has been

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a campaign fought on local issues. We have heard all week particularly

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about the transport issue and it has been characterised as a by-election

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about a roundabout. Some say that is unfair but certainly the transport

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issues are of huge concern here. They have other concerns which

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school closures and of course the level of funding that Aberdeen is

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receiving. They are concerned with those sorts of things and the

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feeling seems to be, that the SNP will hold onto the seat but what

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will be interesting is to see the numbers and to see whether the 7000

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majority last time, whether or not the numbers change quickly. We will

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be back at the count later. We will also hear from Brian and John. There

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is plenty of time to talk about the haudagain roundabout, it has been

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more about the roundabout than the ends and outs of the Independence

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debate but today William Hague came to Edinburgh and warned of the very

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serious problems he thinks an independent Scotland would face in

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joining the EU and NATO. We will discuss that in a moment.

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Identity is at the centre of the Independence debate. It will be a

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vote on how Scotland sees its place in the world. Will that be a small

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but confident country making decisions in its own interest or

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part of the United Kingdom sharing in the risks and rewards of being in

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one of the world's most successful economies. As problems in Syria

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reached on William Hague was in Edinburgh to speak about the latter

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of the two arguments. We also had to think about how we appear to others.

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Travelling from Afghanistan to Brazil, Canada to Australia, I am

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baffled that anyone would try to break up a union that has been so

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resilient, so successful and so admired in the world as I will -- as

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ours. When outsiders look at the United Kingdom they see one of the

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world's most successful examples of economic develop and, diplomatic

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influence, and democracy. They speak about our institutions, our legal

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systems and ourselves will service -- and our civil service. They look

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at our language, sport and tradition... And William Hague said

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there was another important reason to keep the union. Our world is

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becoming more dangerous, our continued security depends on

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defending our security ourselves, that includes our nuclear dependent

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-- our nuclear deterrent. An independent Scotland would not be

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able to replicate our abilities. The cost of creating new capabilities

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would create an enormous burden on the Scottish taxpayer, it would take

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years to build up the qualified personnel needed and Scotland would

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lose the benefit of having some of the most impressive services in the

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world. But some are not convinced it will get through to the everyday

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person on the street. If you are a politician, you will not be at the

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UN Security Council if you represent a independent Scotland or at the G8

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and set with world leaders. But well that Marilyn -- will that matter to

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the average voters? Does it really matter to the average Scottish

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person on the street whether we have a G8 member or someone on the UN

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Security Council. People are more sick cure -- people are more

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concerned about their jobs. When it comes to winning the argument on

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foreign affairs the SNP is wanting to play on the controversial

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decisions made by the Westminster Government in Scotland's name. There

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was a call for the impeachment of Tony Blair on war crimes recently.

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And years of protest at Faslane, they say, shows that Scotland needs

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the power to remove it from the Clyde. But when getting the argument

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across to the SNP encounter the same problems as their opponents? Some

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are already mobilised to vote yes, the difficult problem for the yes

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campaign is looking at those in the middle who do not really mind about

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foreign policy. Most people tend to be in the middle. The yes campaign

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already has a lot of people who were angry about the Iraq war and about

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nuclear weapons, they have to broaden the base, they have to get

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above the one third that seems to be backing them. Get the men who are on

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the street who may not have views on foreign policy but is not very

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ideological lead driven, in that sense, it is a very difficult road

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to run, they have two look at both sides. And the SNP has had its own

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difficulties in foreign policy, they have been accused of making

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assertions over automatic EU membership in independence. 75% of

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respondents said they would wish an independent Scotland to remain...

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And ending opposition to NATO membership in the SNP left deep

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divisions. Angus Robertson says that the SNP is making sensible decisions

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on foreign policy well the Government is scaremongering.

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countries make decisions on their own behalf and represent themselves

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internationally, that is one of the great pools of Scottish

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independence, that we can speak with our own voice and not be represented

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by parties that we did not even elect in Government. I would rather

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we work directly represented in the EU and spoke up for the things that

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mattered. Not have ourselves committed to illegal wars. The

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advantage of Independence is that we are directly represented in the

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world rather than being misrepresented by a Government we

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did not elect. Foreign policy arguments advanced by both sides

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today we have heard before and will hear again. But did the voters take

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notice? We will pick this up with our

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politicians in a moment. Both Brian and John were at the speech in

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Edinburgh today. What did you think? I thought he was rehearsing

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or rehashing, or setting out perhaps, the arguments on the

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foreign affairs issue, stressing in his view that it would be difficult

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for Scotland to gain membership of the European Union, making the same

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point in a media briefing in regards to Natal later. At that media

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briefing we were inclined to press about the UK Government perspective.

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-- NATO. We asked if he meant that there would be a threat to our

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membership of the UN Security Council. He said absolutely not. He

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said it would be a continuing UK continuing to inherit is that the UK

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has the world. The select committee has warned... That is certainly

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contentious issue. William Hague was of the view that the rest of the UK

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would be the continuing state and inherit the status that the rest of

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the UK has ended -- has in the European Union. He did not look at

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what Scotland could gain from the membership. He said that Scotland

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game from being part of the cloud that the UK delivers. It is back to

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an argument that is familiar from the time that we discussed the big

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stick, the UK has a big stick that is always wielded in the interest of

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the whole of the UK, and that is the interests of Scotland, by the always

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coterminous? Are they always benefiting from the use of the stick

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or is the big stick back home in a covered? -- in a covered? You were

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also there. I wonder if you can tackle a question that the historian

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in the film posed. Does this matter to the Auden -- to the ordinary

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Scottish voter? It matters somewhat but not with the debt of the

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argument that the Foreign Secretary gave. Not many people will follow

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that. It certainly judges by the criteria of whether people think

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that Scotland would have a stronger or weaker boys in the world than it

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does now. It clearly isn't as important an issue for voters as the

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:19:46.:19:48.

economy is. It is more clearly related to whether we will be more

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at or less of an equal society. The argument is that Scotland will have

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a stronger voice, is it an argument that the yes wide -- the yes side

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are winning? They say that they think that Scotland would have a

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stronger voice in the world, far fewer think that it would have a

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weaker voice. It is one of the stronger parts of the yes side. It

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is a stronger hard for them than the issue of the economy. But at the end

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of the day, the economy is still more of an important issue for

:20:26.:20:36.
:20:36.:20:36.

voters. June it was intriguing also that the Foreign Secretary was

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reluctant to flesh at that point, the diminished status of the rest of

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the UK, because he is then seeing that one of the things worries us is

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a challenge from the Russians or some other nation that has always

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been jealous of Britain's permanent membership... He was reluctant to go

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down that route because either he thinks that the case or he could

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then be seen as pursuing a selfish agenda. It is worth saying that

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William Hague's speech exemplified one of the potential problems

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because as soon as you start talking about how wonderful Britain is, you

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may or may not think that is through but you have to be denying that the

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people of Scotland are very narrowly thinking about what is and their own

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interests. The Hundred years of British history may not be as

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crucial as the perspective of what the union could deliver for Britain

:21:41.:21:51.
:21:51.:21:55.

in future. Did you watch this speech? Did you go along? I spent my

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day in useful activity in Aberdeen. When it comes to William Hague, I

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have seen his predictions before, in the days before devolution, when he

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said we would be weaker as a country under devolution. Over time, he has

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been shown to be lacking. He showed the bold as brass neck I have seen

:22:18.:22:24.

for quite a while in regards to the EU. The senior members of the

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Conservative Government are completely spot on the issue.

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they not promising after the next general election to hold a

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referendum having been negotiated the terms of membership? That's as

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many somersaults as I have seen in question. Philip Hammond and Michael

:22:46.:22:54.

Gove are all over the place when it comes to the issue. Scotland at the

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moment does not contribute in terms of the voice of the UK. We are not

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asked or consulted when it comes to decisions that are made in the UN

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security council. I have been new Minister for external affairs for

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nine months and William Hague has not spoken to me to ask what the

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Scottish government thinks on these issues. When we do have differences

:23:19.:23:29.
:23:29.:23:29.

of opinion, such as that the UN vote on Palestine. The UK decided to

:23:29.:23:33.

abstain in Scotland said we would vote for that in line with the

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majority of international opinion. That is well out with your remix.

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Scotland has a voice. We very legitimately have a voice. The UK

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government should absolutely take note of that and they do not.

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with those complaints first of all then back to some of the substance

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of William Hague's speech. I think they are complete nonsense. I do

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except what he does not except which is that foreign affairs as a

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reserved matters all that is the responsibility of Westminster. We

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have Scottish MPs at Westminster who make their voices known on this.

:24:26.:24:33.

Many have prominent roles such as Malcolm Bruce. Scotland's voice is

:24:33.:24:40.

heard on these issues and the Scottish Parliament has a dream. I

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was at a meeting earlier this week with Fiona Hyslop about the issues

:24:43.:24:50.

in relation to Europe, and the forthcoming European Council. It is

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not the case at all that the UK government does not listen to the

:24:56.:25:00.

default administrations. We are working closely with them. His

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problem is that when he does not agree with our decision, he cannot

:25:04.:25:09.

accept that. That is the basis of the discussions. We are listening

:25:09.:25:15.

and trying to work on the basis of the devolved settlements and I think

:25:15.:25:21.

it is working pretty well. When you take the noise of independence out

:25:21.:25:29.

of the picture, they are never good day to day working relationship.

:25:29.:25:32.

does not work well because it is not about my voice but about the

:25:32.:25:41.

Scottish voice, and the arrack war was a good example. We had a voice

:25:41.:25:48.

that was very different in terms of the UK government. Scottish sons and

:25:48.:25:53.

daughters were sent out and killed. We then found out that was based on

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a lie. We are the voice differentiates we should absolutely

:25:57.:26:03.

have a voice. The fact that one MP cheer of the select committee is not

:26:03.:26:13.
:26:13.:26:13.

Scotland's voice! Let me make this final point. William Hague, I was

:26:13.:26:18.

not surprised he did not touch on the point that the vast majority of

:26:18.:26:27.

Scots do not want nuclear weapons on the soil. These are important issues

:26:27.:26:31.

in the final point that John Curtis made was that when it comes to

:26:31.:26:37.

international affairs and defence, time and again the majority of Scots

:26:37.:26:43.

want the Scottish Parliament to have a voice on that issue. I certainly

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do not accept that polls indicate Scots want the Scottish government

:26:48.:26:55.

running the defence of Scotland. All the polling is quite clear that

:26:55.:26:58.

people understand the benefits of the United Kingdom from that point

:26:58.:27:08.
:27:08.:27:11.

of view. We actually don't have a vote in the Scottish Parliament on

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the Iraq war and the Scottish government expressed its view but

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they are not responsible for these matters. The referendum will mean

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the Scottish people can determine this. My view there is very much to

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that of William Hague's. Scotland stands taller than FoxPro that is

:27:32.:27:39.

part of the United Kingdom. Is this really about what is best for

:27:39.:27:46.

Scotland or is William Hague arguing what is best for the UK? Is usually

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worried about the UK and using its status and influence? What he is

:27:56.:27:59.

arguing is that what is best for Scotland and for Britain is the

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same. We want to stay united and part of the United Kingdom because

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we have a strong voice... Do you agree with the foreign affairs

:28:09.:28:13.

committee that said in the event of independence, the UN security

:28:13.:28:21.

council rule may be called into question? I will put it in context.

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Nothing will be the same after a yes vote in the referendum. We have seen

:28:27.:28:30.

over the course of the past few months and attempt to characterise

:28:30.:28:37.

the vote as only the things you do not click will change, but there

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will be significant change. It will not be possible to predict what will

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happen on a whole number of things. Is that not a difficulty for you

:28:48.:28:51.

because William Hague argues you have had difficulty securing

:28:51.:28:57.

independent membership of the EU and NATO. You cannot prove that is not

:28:57.:29:07.

the case. If you look at the alone report, the EU transition, it was

:29:07.:29:14.

the alone independent adviser, the UK Government's, who said the

:29:14.:29:21.

timetable put for what... That is about the nature of the deal you

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would get and does not discount the possibility you would have a wrangle

:29:26.:29:31.

on your hands in order to sort out the terms of Scottish membership.

:29:31.:29:39.

Having set a timetable, you do not have much room for manoeuvre.

:29:39.:29:44.

quite an incredible argument that an oil-rich, sufficiently rich Scotland

:29:44.:29:48.

that has been part of the EU for 40 years could not continue its

:29:48.:29:57.

membership. When it comes to William Hague, is he arguing for the benefit

:29:57.:30:05.

of Scotland are for the UK's position? It is for the UK and not

:30:05.:30:10.

just for the security council but over how many MEPs the UK will have

:30:10.:30:18.

and its influence and Clwyd in the European Union. That is the

:30:18.:30:22.

contradiction at the heart of the no campaign that Scotland will be to

:30:22.:30:31.

Luanda week, but actually we are desperate to hold on to you. That is

:30:31.:30:34.

the ridiculous argument that only those voting in the yes campaign

:30:34.:30:43.

ever bring up. William Hague made very clear Scotland could be

:30:43.:30:47.

independent and I make it clear they could be, but I question whether it

:30:47.:30:55.

would be better. I do not think that case has been made. I am sure during

:30:55.:30:59.

the course of the programme we will return to their sand and even expand

:30:59.:31:04.

on the discussion. We will leave it there for the moment, let's get some

:31:04.:31:14.
:31:14.:31:21.

more from Stephen Gordon. Is there an update? It is a slow process and

:31:21.:31:25.

moving slowly but all 52 of the boxers have now arrived from all

:31:25.:31:31.

over the constituency in the counting is well underway. Still too

:31:31.:31:35.

early to make any predictions but certainly people are taking plenty

:31:35.:31:41.

of interest on all sides of the whole. I would say, there are lot of

:31:41.:31:45.

poker faces with nobody giving too much away about how things appears

:31:45.:31:52.

to be up. Plenty of interest at this stage in the timeout. They were a

:31:52.:31:59.

lot of rumours flying about with some Google putting it in the 30%

:31:59.:32:05.

region but others at about 50%. What I can say is that was a decent day

:32:05.:32:08.

in Aberdeen with a lovely evening so plenty of chances for people to go

:32:08.:32:15.

out. The perfect opportunity but we will have to see how that works and

:32:15.:32:20.

indeed whose favourite will turn out to be ended.

:32:20.:32:28.

Let's take a quick look at the front pages of tomorrow. The Scotsman has

:32:28.:32:33.

a picture of the Queen looking delighted having one, not

:32:33.:32:42.

personally, but her horse winning the Gold cup at Royal Ascot. The

:32:42.:32:45.

headline there is about Kenny McAskill angling judges in a Scots

:32:45.:32:55.
:32:55.:32:59.

law shake-up. They are planning to abolish corroboration. -- angering.

:32:59.:33:04.

Those plans will be formally laid before Parliament tomorrow. The

:33:04.:33:07.

front page of the Daily Mail features the Queen and the Gold cup

:33:07.:33:17.
:33:17.:33:21.

again. The main story is on the main story is only kidnapped teacher, the

:33:21.:33:29.

teacher convicted of kidnapping a 15-year-old pupil and you'll bring

:33:29.:33:37.

-- eloping to France together. They are still a couple according to this

:33:37.:33:47.
:33:47.:33:53.

story. The Independent, I will, round, dark continent. Full stop

:33:53.:34:01.

this is the story about the Care Quality Commission in England which

:34:01.:34:04.

has under very controversial circumstances said that former

:34:04.:34:11.

bosses at the commission sought to suppress a report criticising the

:34:11.:34:17.

way in which the commission itself had handled the controversy over

:34:17.:34:22.

hospital care in Cumbria. We also have the daily Telegraph wheel again

:34:22.:34:32.
:34:32.:34:33.

the Queen is smiling at Ascot. The main headline is about the NHS and

:34:33.:34:38.

the price racket, a Telegraph investigation. They have the William

:34:38.:34:44.

Hague speech in the bottom left-hand corner. And according to the

:34:44.:34:53.

Telegraph, two day is the happiest day of the year. After a bitterly

:34:53.:34:58.

cold Spring and months of economic gloom, it appears Britain is finally

:34:58.:35:01.

feeling some optimism when approaching holidays in the hope

:35:01.:35:06.

that Andy Murray will when Wimbledon, meaning today is the

:35:06.:35:16.
:35:16.:35:17.

happiest day of the year. Wee will find a happy hour panellists are

:35:17.:35:27.
:35:27.:35:28.

after midnight. -- we will find out how happy.

:35:28.:35:31.

Of course the by-election was called following the death of the previous

:35:31.:35:34.

MSP, Brian Adam, following his battle with cancer. He had held the

:35:34.:35:37.

seat for the Scottish National Party since 2003 when it was known as

:35:38.:35:40.

Aberdeen North. The by-election is being contested by nine candidates.

:35:40.:35:43.

And as Steven Duff reports, despite the fact that this is an election

:35:43.:35:46.

for the Scottish Parliament, it has been a campaign dominated very much

:35:46.:35:56.
:35:56.:36:01.

by local and not national issues. Brian Adam being elected for the

:36:01.:36:07.

first time as an MSP in 2003, he was popular in his constituency and in

:36:07.:36:15.

Holyrood, his death was mourned by politicians of all parties, it was a

:36:15.:36:25.
:36:25.:36:30.

by-election that nobody wanted. The housing estates of lobar -- of

:36:30.:36:39.

Labour strongholds, at one time. am proud to be the first Nationalist

:36:39.:36:49.

MSP for Aberdeen. Many believed that his personal popularity here was key

:36:49.:36:59.
:36:59.:37:01.

in turning voters to the SNP. SNP candidate Mark McDonald resigned his

:37:01.:37:11.

list seat at the Scottish Parliament to stand in the by-election. He has

:37:11.:37:16.

faced claims from opponents that Aberdonians feel underfunded and

:37:16.:37:21.

neglected from the Scottish Government. If you look at the

:37:21.:37:25.

dental School and the new health constituent -- at the new health

:37:25.:37:30.

centres within the constituency, and the new schools, then the word --

:37:30.:37:35.

then the work at the haudagain roundabout, there is money which we

:37:35.:37:42.

think is benefiting the constituency from the Scottish Government.

:37:42.:37:51.

Aberdeen is getting a good deal from the Scottish Government. In 2011

:37:51.:37:57.

Labour finished 7000 votes behind Brian Adam. Willie Young is the

:37:57.:38:02.

finance convener of the council, he has had a rough ride during the

:38:02.:38:09.

campaign. First for questioning the wisdom of the freeze on council tax

:38:09.:38:14.

and the pressure on the Imrie school closures in the constituency.

:38:14.:38:19.

your arm waving your SNP badge so I think you might be voting for them.

:38:19.:38:28.

Yes. We have not had enough money from central Government, we have

:38:28.:38:31.

been short changed, that is what has been happening. He promised that

:38:31.:38:37.

there would be lower that the -- that we would not fall below, we are

:38:38.:38:45.

short. On top of that, Aberdeen is the launch -- is the only local

:38:45.:38:51.

authority that gives more money to Edinburgh than it gets back.

:38:51.:38:55.

many reports of people talking about independence or next year's

:38:55.:39:05.

referendum on the doorstep, but they have been talking about this... The

:39:05.:39:10.

haddock and roundabout -- the haudagain roundabout at the heart of

:39:10.:39:17.

the constituency. Every politician has promised to do something about

:39:17.:39:22.

it for a very long time, the SNP says it well but not until the

:39:22.:39:27.

Aberdeen bypass is built on that could be at Slate -- as late as

:39:27.:39:36.

2018. We are a world energy help and the oil capital of Europe, we do

:39:36.:39:41.

look at infrastructure and see the big concerns, we want to invest, and

:39:41.:39:47.

the structure is not fit for purpose, we are getting things done,

:39:47.:39:57.
:39:57.:39:57.

but we need to see commitment. Obviously we are not like the other

:39:57.:40:03.

big parties, they see road-building is the effective solution to

:40:03.:40:10.

congestion, we want to concentrate on public transport. The Liberal

:40:10.:40:18.

Democrats once did well in the Donside suburbs but last year's

:40:18.:40:21.

elections they were reduced to romp of councillors after sharing the

:40:21.:40:28.

city council for more than a decade. Everyone has a record to defend, the

:40:28.:40:32.

Labour Party on the council here, the SNP at the Scottish Government,

:40:32.:40:37.

we have a record to defend at the Westminster Parliament, but through

:40:37.:40:44.

all of that we have delivered here for more than 30 years, we have run

:40:44.:40:48.

the council, we have delivered schools. We will stand up for the

:40:48.:40:55.

people of Aberdeen. For other candidates gently placed their hats

:40:55.:41:01.

into the campaign, UKIP among them, Nigel Farage had an unusually

:41:02.:41:06.

laid-back visit to Scotland to support his candidate. The SNP has

:41:06.:41:12.

been hot with the bookies since the start, it might disappoint some

:41:12.:41:19.

politicos when it doesn't show clues before the big around -- before the

:41:19.:41:28.

big referendum. Let us now go to Steven Godden in

:41:28.:41:38.
:41:38.:41:41.

Aberdeen. I am joined by two local MSP 's. --

:41:41.:41:51.
:41:51.:41:52.

MSPs. Either any indications of how this might turn out? It has been a

:41:52.:41:56.

hard-fought and marvellous campaign. Early indications are quite positive

:41:56.:42:03.

but we will wait and see. Anything less than a convincing victory would

:42:03.:42:11.

be a disappointment for you. Absolutely not. Brian Adam had 457

:42:11.:42:16.

when he first won the seat, anything above that would be good for our

:42:16.:42:24.

candidate to build from. But we expected to be better than that.

:42:24.:42:29.

have had a positive campaign. We have faced some negative campaigning

:42:29.:42:34.

from the SNP which we were quite taken aback by, especially the

:42:34.:42:39.

personal attacks. But we come with a strong and positive message for

:42:39.:42:47.

Aberdeen. We are making a case for a change. The other interesting

:42:47.:42:53.

respect has been seeing just how the SNP have avoided mentioning the

:42:53.:42:57.

dreaded word of independence throughout the campaign. It is not a

:42:57.:43:07.

surprise that Mark McDonald has conceded to the referendum. It gives

:43:07.:43:16.

us a good indication. I think it will be closer this time. Can he

:43:16.:43:26.
:43:26.:43:31.

win? Yes, he can. Support has grown. We take a tremendous and in our vote

:43:31.:43:41.
:43:41.:43:44.

hopefully. -- increase. We will find out in an hour or two. Is this a

:43:45.:43:54.
:43:55.:43:55.

sheet -- is this a seat that you should win? It is an ambition. We

:43:55.:43:59.

want to bring an end to this SNP Government, they have wasted their

:43:59.:44:08.

years. Many voters tell us that even those who voted SNP before do not

:44:08.:44:14.

want to break up written and do not want a nationalist estate. -- to

:44:14.:44:24.
:44:24.:44:31.

break up Britain. Why do not talking about independence? SNP canvassers

:44:31.:44:35.

have asked the question about independence. We ask it every time

:44:35.:44:40.

we are on our doorstep, that is absolutely not true. We have asked

:44:40.:44:46.

voters what they think, well there are people who are undecided we have

:44:46.:44:49.

had positive feedback from voters of various parties wanting

:44:49.:44:54.

independence. Others are in leading convinced but are open to being

:44:54.:45:00.

convinced. This is an election to replace my colleague Brian Adam, in

:45:00.:45:05.

the mid-term, as has been said, Labour should be looking for a

:45:05.:45:13.

victory, that is if they are going for a comeback, we do not link that

:45:13.:45:20.

that is going to happen. We think we will win and win comfortably.

:45:20.:45:27.

you not talking about it because people are uncomfortable with that?

:45:27.:45:33.

We are talking about independence, that is what I'm saying. We hear

:45:33.:45:40.

that it has been fought on local issues, why is that? Local issues

:45:40.:45:44.

matter to the people of Donside. They are matters for the local

:45:44.:45:50.

council and for a Scottish parliament. Local issues have been

:45:50.:45:57.

brought to the fore, of course. is where you give it away, you have

:45:57.:46:02.

talked about what local issues instead of talking about what the

:46:02.:46:09.

Scottish parliament should be doing. I have looked through the literature

:46:09.:46:15.

and I cannot find one piece of reference to independence in any of

:46:15.:46:22.

the leaflets. It is not an election about independence, it is an

:46:22.:46:28.

election to replace Brian Adam. We will get a chance to look at that

:46:28.:46:37.

vote in 2014. How can an MSP from the SNP stands here and say it is

:46:37.:46:44.

not about independence? You cannot have it both ways, you cannot say we

:46:44.:46:46.

talk about independence all the time and then that we don't see enough

:46:46.:46:52.

about it. You talk about us talking about it all the time and not

:46:52.:46:58.

focusing on anything else, you cannot have it both ways! But you

:46:58.:47:06.

did not mention it once! We do not vote -- we do not focus on it all

:47:06.:47:11.

the time. Their programme is dominated by the referendum but when

:47:11.:47:19.

it comes to this... Do not contradict yourself. They know as

:47:19.:47:22.

well as we do that most voters do not want to break up the United

:47:22.:47:31.

Kingdom. Think you need to wait till September 2014 to talk about that.

:47:31.:47:36.

We are talking about the by-election. This is a campaign

:47:36.:47:41.

about the issues that affect the people of Donside. We will see

:47:41.:47:47.

whether opinion has shifted in Donside. I think we will see a shift

:47:47.:47:54.

away from the SNP, I would be surprised indeed if parties standing

:47:54.:48:01.

from an -- for independence achieved any great majority. Speaking to

:48:01.:48:05.

people, what I have heard over and over again, is that these are issues

:48:05.:48:09.

that have been here four years, transport concerns have been present

:48:09.:48:14.

for a long time. People say that there has been a lot of talk and no

:48:14.:48:18.

action. For both of you, what difference for your candidate make?

:48:18.:48:26.

The haudagain roundabout. The legal challenge has been dealt with. We

:48:26.:48:31.

are moving ahead and we have seen demolition of buildings along the

:48:31.:48:37.

route, work is in process. We have said that the haudagain will be

:48:37.:48:46.

dealt with. We cannot do both things because they would be chaos around

:48:46.:48:53.

the haudagain. The key local issue has been the haudagain, the SNP will

:48:53.:49:02.

not touch it for the next few years. We want to drive the haudagain

:49:02.:49:12.
:49:12.:49:14.

project. Experts say that... What about the rest, they're expendable?

:49:14.:49:17.

We're looking at agreements between the council the Government about

:49:17.:49:23.

minor disruption during construction. That would be an

:49:23.:49:32.

improvement them waiting five or six years. It would be a distraction. We

:49:32.:49:37.

are only going to build the houses and how long would that take?

:49:37.:49:41.

want a Labour MSP to make the case in the Scottish Parliament for the

:49:41.:49:44.

Scottish Government to come forward, not only to put the money

:49:44.:49:48.

in the investment in improving the haudagain but also to invest in that

:49:48.:49:53.

housing to allow people to be rehoused. And the plans haven't come

:49:53.:50:03.
:50:03.:50:06.

forward from the council. It is a shocking record. With the Liberal

:50:06.:50:14.

Democrats and Labour administration it didn't. If they were serious,

:50:14.:50:20.

they would not just bring it forward but find a way to ensure that the

:50:20.:50:23.

tennants are rehoused into high quality property. They choose to

:50:23.:50:28.

with hold that. Just as they choose not to even begin work on the

:50:28.:50:34.

haudagain until 2018. That is a scandal and a disgrace. Many voters

:50:34.:50:40.

told us how angry that they were, that the Government said that would

:50:40.:50:45.

do it but not until 2018. On the issue of schools, you are

:50:45.:50:49.

looking to merge schools, close schools. You have made this

:50:49.:50:54.

difficult? There are consultations for two school mergers. Both in

:50:54.:50:59.

Donside. The SNP candidates were complaining about this, they closed

:50:59.:51:05.

four schools. We built ten schools in the whole of Aberdeen. He didn't

:51:05.:51:11.

replace many schools. All of the four school schools which Mark

:51:11.:51:18.

McDonald closed were not replaced. But pupils were put into new

:51:18.:51:24.

schools. We have looked at new schools with a view to educational

:51:24.:51:27.

benefits for the children. Without it, the children will not go forward

:51:27.:51:32.

it is in contrast to the way that Mark McDonald took an axe to good

:51:32.:51:37.

schools, even new schools, just to save money because of the financial

:51:37.:51:42.

crisis. Ten schools were built between #20

:51:42.:51:48.

2007 and 2011 under the SNP administration and a Scottish SNP

:51:48.:51:56.

Government. So, Lewis, nothing was built in yours. On housing, the SNP

:51:56.:52:01.

is on target with its housing policy. The schools built in

:52:01.:52:10.

Aberdeen were from money granted by a Labour/liberal government in

:52:10.:52:17.

2003/2004. It was before the 2007 election.

:52:17.:52:22.

Those models were no in -- not in place.

:52:22.:52:27.

We are about to get an update. There is lots of passion here. It has been

:52:27.:52:31.

a long campaign but the passions are running high.

:52:31.:52:35.

Thank you very much, Steven. I'm not sure that they like each other!

:52:35.:52:41.

love the set. It looks like a talent show. You expect the winner to come

:52:41.:52:47.

out... Tonight, Matthew, I will be the MSP for Donside. Wonderful.

:52:47.:52:52.

You have spent a bit of time in Aberdeen during the campaign, was it

:52:52.:52:54.

the haudagain roundabout by-election? There is nothing wrong

:52:54.:52:59.

with that. It is representing constituency issues and it is a huge

:52:59.:53:03.

issue, it is not just the roundabout but the state of the transport. It

:53:03.:53:07.

is the third Don crossing. It is all of the issues about the

:53:07.:53:12.

infrastructure. It is more than that. I started my journalistic

:53:12.:53:19.

career in the 80s in Aberdeen. I love the city, buttion can see

:53:19.:53:23.

alongside the prosperity, the wealth, there is almost no

:53:23.:53:28.

unemployment. Yet there is a sense of anxiety. A sense of insecurity.

:53:28.:53:32.

Aberdeen wonders where it is going. It is a combination of the concerns

:53:32.:53:39.

about the union Street, the Union Terrace Gardens re-development. The

:53:39.:53:44.

issues on transport, infrastructure, the wonder, the concern that other

:53:44.:53:52.

cities are overtalking it not in wealth -- overtaking it, not in

:53:52.:53:59.

wealth but in dynamism. Even the City of Culture decision going to

:53:59.:54:04.

Dundee it is not a sense of gloom, it really is not, how can it be when

:54:04.:54:10.

the economy of the place is booming. It is a sense of disquiet, anxiety

:54:10.:54:17.

and a wonder of what happens if the oil runs out. There is a real sense

:54:17.:54:21.

of disquiet, alongside all of that prosperity. That is the conundrum.

:54:21.:54:27.

That is what the haudagain roundabout represents. It is a Totem

:54:27.:54:32.

for whether Aberdeen is being, late real, in this case, by-passed.

:54:32.:54:35.

The Liberal Democrats argued that Aberdeen gets a raw deal from the

:54:35.:54:39.

Scottish Government and from the UK Government too? I think in terms of

:54:39.:54:43.

the raw deal from the Scottish Government it is clear in

:54:43.:54:50.

legislation. We had assurances that a floor of 85% of funding to the

:54:50.:54:57.

Government would be set. That nobody fall below that floor. Yet we have

:54:57.:55:02.

seen Aberdeen fall below that floor to the tune of about �26 million.

:55:02.:55:07.

Everyone will have their ideas about how to invest that �26 million, but

:55:07.:55:12.

the obvious example, this comes back to Brian's point is in terms of not

:55:12.:55:16.

just the haudagain roundabout but the transport infrastructure. There

:55:16.:55:20.

is a contrast in terms of the success and the dynamism that is

:55:20.:55:24.

there in the North East and in Aberdeen, but with an infrastructure

:55:24.:55:28.

that is not able to sustain and support that. Therefore that plays

:55:29.:55:34.

into the anxieties. But it isn't that as much the fault

:55:34.:55:41.

of the Labour/liberal Democrat, executive of the past. Of

:55:41.:55:45.

councillors, of all hues who have been in charge down the years of

:55:45.:55:50.

Aberdeen? You can't point the finger at one? There have been concerns

:55:51.:55:56.

over a period. I think what we saw was a series of bold claims and

:55:56.:56:01.

promising from the commitments of the SNP in opposition. Indeed, into

:56:01.:56:05.

government about what they would deliver for the North East. They

:56:05.:56:10.

have fallen short of that. That was going to be coming back off

:56:10.:56:16.

the doorsteps when I was there. As well as, I have to say, the issue of

:56:16.:56:21.

independence. I think that Maureen Watt was right. You did not have to

:56:21.:56:27.

have it on the leaf thes, it was coming off the doors spontaneously.

:56:27.:56:31.

Whatever the success of the SNP in the North East, it was dramatic,

:56:31.:56:36.

that was not a vote for independence. What we will see is

:56:36.:56:41.

the slipping back of support for the SNP. Although Maureen's suggestion

:56:41.:56:46.

that anything over 450 votes being a triumph for Mark McDonald took a

:56:46.:56:50.

little bit of doubting. But the constitution did not catch

:56:50.:56:54.

on as an issue in the by-election that is what it seemed when I was

:56:54.:57:01.

there? It was not the SNP leaf thes it was not in there. That is clear

:57:01.:57:05.

from the groups, from the conversations on the doorsteps that

:57:05.:57:08.

independence is not popular. They did all they could not to talk about

:57:08.:57:15.

When you saw or heard voxpops and people talking of what they regarded

:57:15.:57:21.

as the issues, it did not seem to come up, did it? Or was it own when

:57:21.:57:26.

you prompted that issue to be dealt with? It is clear from the time I

:57:26.:57:29.

was in Aberdeen. A huge amount of people were undecided about how to

:57:30.:57:34.

vote. That is to be the story of tonight. How the undecided voters

:57:34.:57:39.

break. For them the independence was an issue. They did not want it. It

:57:39.:57:45.

is the type of voter who looks to the SNP, they have not done a bad

:57:45.:57:50.

job in government but I don't want independence, what do I do with the

:57:50.:57:54.

vote? That is the biggest debate tonight.

:57:54.:58:01.

Is it not an issue to make this part of the campaign when we know that

:58:01.:58:07.

independence is part of this one way or the other? But this is about home

:58:07.:58:13.

affairs, global affairs, the discussion we earlier is tant mount

:58:13.:58:19.

to that. Had if I can tell you that the biggest thing in my inbox is

:58:20.:58:24.

about global poverty and the Enough Food If campaign, we would not have

:58:24.:58:28.

had a voice if we had been independent. Scotland would not have

:58:28.:58:32.

been a part of the discussions around the table. Those are the

:58:32.:58:36.

issues that people care about. That is what I take from the campaign.

:58:36.:58:40.

That the SNP wanted to do anything about talking about independence on

:58:40.:58:45.

the doorstep but it is all that they talk about in Holyrood.

:58:45.:58:55.
:58:55.:58:58.

You did not mention this in the campaign, ous but -- Yousaf Raza

:58:58.:59:04.

Gillani but what did you think? Well, there was phone can vansing

:59:04.:59:08.

about independence, we put out a survey asking the question about

:59:08.:59:14.

independence and the results of that were positive. 19,000 responses. A

:59:14.:59:24.
:59:24.:59:25.

third of the Donside constituency. I'll give you the results of this.

:59:25.:59:31.

29% want wanted the status quo. 34 for independence, 37% don't know. A

:59:31.:59:35.

huge shift, actual', in regards to that. It is positive. The idea that

:59:36.:59:39.

we don't talk about independence, I have given four examples. Labour

:59:39.:59:44.

saying that they don't think it should be about independence but the

:59:44.:59:48.

leaflet they put out today, was your chance to say "no" to separation. So

:59:48.:59:53.

they are trying to make a verdict. Joanne Lamont, don't forget, when it

:59:53.:59:59.

comes to the election, this is her first electoral challenge,

:59:59.:00:05.

opportunity if she wishes, after the cuts commission agenda to cut public

:00:05.:00:11.

services. It could be endorsements from Sir

:00:11.:00:14.

Alex Ferguson, Alex McLeish or anyone else. They have tried to make

:00:14.:00:18.

this about independence. We have kept to local issues and talking

:00:18.:00:21.

about independence but if Labour don't win the seat that they once

:00:21.:00:25.

held, this will be a dramatic verdict on her leadership and indeed

:00:25.:00:29.

the campaign and scaremongering against independence.

:00:29.:00:34.

We have had several council by-elections, the SNP has not won

:00:34.:00:40.

one. It is ridiculous for you to say that this is a test against Joanne

:00:40.:00:45.

Lamont. Every time we have been put to the voters we have won well.

:00:45.:00:52.

After the cuts commission speech she has not had an electoral challenge

:00:52.:00:57.

on this kale. Labour have hit everything Donside. The fact that

:00:57.:01:05.

you think that is great result... You you had leaf thes, you had

:01:05.:01:11.

former footballers? I am more than happy to say we have put effort into

:01:11.:01:16.

the Donside campaign. Yes had Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond. Heavyweight

:01:16.:01:20.

figures coming up. We have put in the effort. We believe that the

:01:20.:01:25.

people of Aberdeen should be represented as well as they were

:01:25.:01:28.

with Brian Adam as they were with Mark McDonald.

:01:28.:01:34.

And now the votes have been verified in Donside, the count proper is now

:01:34.:01:38.

under way. We can give a figure for the turn out it is certainly not

:01:39.:01:45.

impressive. The figure for Donside, 38%. That is

:01:45.:01:49.

a pretty low turn out, but how does it compare, Professor John Curtice?

:01:49.:01:54.

Well, it is not that bad given what we expect for by-elections these

:01:54.:02:01.

days. It is better than the Glasgow kut cart by-election when only 32%

:02:01.:02:07.

turned out, but it is lower than the last by-election, when 46% turned

:02:07.:02:17.
:02:17.:02:19.

out. This is a constituency where I think this is about the turn out

:02:19.:02:23.

that we expect, given the past records, and the difficulties of

:02:23.:02:26.

getting voters to come to the polls for anything.

:02:26.:02:31.

It is not a huge boost to democracy but they have given the

:02:31.:02:36.

circumstances, it was a bright day in abdeeb. It either encouraged

:02:36.:02:41.

people to think about politics or... Think about sunning themselveses!

:02:41.:02:48.

really hate to pick up on a couple of things but let's do it.

:02:48.:02:52.

When Hamza says that the Labour Party were going for endorsements,

:02:52.:03:01.

the MPs were stressing that Joey was back. And proud of my connections.

:03:01.:03:07.

And Lewis McDonald said that the, the Labour Party, rather, had been

:03:07.:03:11.

suffering personal attacks from the SNP. The Labour candidate strike

:03:11.:03:17.

Mark McDonald as a boy trying to do a man's job. If that is not insult,

:03:17.:03:23.

I'm not sure what is. I wonder if like ruth Davidson he

:03:23.:03:28.

should have to present ID if he turned up at a bar? Oh! If I had

:03:28.:03:33.

been asked for ID, that really would have been something.

:03:33.:03:38.

You sent your party leader to buy the round? ! She offered to buy me a

:03:38.:03:44.

drink in our egalitarian approach, glen for uch events.

:03:44.:03:52.

This was at a Bruce Springsteen concert? Yes, a great concert for a

:03:52.:03:55.

63-year-old guy to give his very best.

:03:55.:04:01.

I didn't realise you were 63! You played it differently in the

:04:01.:04:06.

campaign. Trying to rise above the battle between the two main parties

:04:06.:04:09.

contesting the election, do you think that will have paid off for

:04:09.:04:14.

you? I think that we wanted to present a positive campaign. We saw

:04:14.:04:19.

in the clip a while ago that Labour and SNP were at each other's

:04:19.:04:27.

throats. I think for an outsider to the Aberdeen area, it was almost an

:04:27.:04:30.

election about who is to blame for the Irish us that the people face.

:04:31.:04:39.

Was it is the SNP Government or the Labour-led Council? Rather than

:04:39.:04:44.

anybody presenting a positive alternative to issues in the

:04:45.:04:49.

community, but I think what is clear is that this by-election will have

:04:49.:04:52.

absolutely no impact whatsoever on the referendum.

:04:52.:04:58.

That is your candidate, Ross Thomson. A young councillor on the

:04:58.:05:02.

City of Aberdeen and the Tories in administration with the Labour

:05:02.:05:06.

Party. Labour in the lead. A quick word on your choice of

:05:06.:05:11.

candidate. Do you think you made a mistake to choose the finances

:05:11.:05:15.

convener on a council which, for whatever reason is having to make

:05:15.:05:24.

cuts for which he is ultimately responsible? He has given years of

:05:24.:05:30.

public service, but he is also a successful businessman. A lot of

:05:30.:05:34.

people in Aberdeen would like that type of candidate that has

:05:34.:05:40.

experience of business and public service. You got an honest appraisal

:05:40.:05:49.

of the big issues that matter. To honest? Not at all, I like honesty!

:05:49.:05:53.

That is him on the campaign trail. We will talk more about the

:05:53.:05:57.

panellists in a little while. Those who have followed this campaign

:05:57.:06:01.

closely might think people in Aberdeen spent all day going round

:06:01.:06:09.

and round on the roundabout. But it is a part of Scotland which has a

:06:09.:06:13.

rich political history, often described as SMP heartland. What

:06:13.:06:19.

makes the north-east tech? What do people care about? Is there more to

:06:19.:06:29.
:06:29.:06:44.

There is no doubting the colour of the north-east, it was once a sea of

:06:44.:06:50.

Tory blue, but then a few shoots of yellow began to grow around the

:06:50.:06:57.

edges. It felt ripped -- it very quickly took root, and now, like the

:06:57.:07:05.

rape seed in the countryside, SMP Dello dominates. After the slump of

:07:05.:07:14.

1979, the Nationalists struggled to make inroads. But it was in coastal

:07:14.:07:18.

communities that the Conservatives started lose their grip. The

:07:18.:07:23.

fisheries policy was hitting the industry hard, deep blue was fading,

:07:23.:07:26.

and the Tory MP represented the government would force allowing this

:07:26.:07:32.

Brussels rule. There was a new kid on the block, and in the face of

:07:32.:07:35.

these damaging European restrictions, he was offering to be

:07:35.:07:43.

the fisherman's friend. The UK entered the fishing industry, and

:07:43.:07:48.

that led to a raft of new rules and regulations that fisherman had not

:07:48.:07:58.
:07:58.:07:59.

faced before. When we arrived in 1987, when the election was fought,

:07:59.:08:04.

the immunity had affinity for the MP, but with all of these things

:08:04.:08:08.

ongoing and the distress in the industry, what you saw what the

:08:08.:08:17.

fisherman saying, we do not like this policy. Alex Salmond one in

:08:17.:08:20.

1987, and fishing has been a significant part of his policies

:08:20.:08:27.

since. The Nationalists' resurgence in the north-east was taking shape.

:08:27.:08:30.

More support would come with devolution, especially in rural

:08:30.:08:37.

areas. Farming an important part of the local economy. But with next

:08:37.:08:41.

year looming, some of the farmers are turning their backs on the

:08:41.:08:45.

yellow and launching a campaign against independence. But even they

:08:45.:08:52.

accept the SNP have not been their enemies. The SNP have done a

:08:52.:08:55.

reasonably acceptable job, as far as we are concerned, north of the

:08:55.:09:02.

border. That is pretty well accepted by the farming community. That is a

:09:02.:09:11.

very approachable -- the is an approachable guy, he does his best

:09:11.:09:17.

to address issues when he can. But having said that, I still believe

:09:17.:09:20.

that the majority of farming folk are conservatives at heart, although

:09:20.:09:27.

they might have voted SNP as a protest vote from time to time.

:09:27.:09:32.

After conquering the rule vote, the city would be next. Brian Adam

:09:32.:09:37.

driving home a big victory in 2003. Guess what was a big issue even

:09:37.:09:47.

then. Infrastructure has been a hot topic, but in Aberdeen, there is

:09:47.:09:57.
:09:57.:10:00.

The oil and gas industry is what makes Aberdeen unique, the

:10:00.:10:05.

politicians love it because it raises tax, lots of it. Its

:10:05.:10:08.

businesses care deeply about taxation and economic stability, but

:10:08.:10:14.

seem reluctant to enter any debate about independence. Businesses do

:10:14.:10:19.

not have a vote, each of their employees have a vote. Businesses

:10:19.:10:23.

are sensitive to a tapestry of opinions. They are reluctant to

:10:23.:10:28.

express a -- to express an opinion because they do not have the

:10:28.:10:33.

information yet. The chamber will try to put together the analysis for

:10:33.:10:37.

its members over the next year, but it will take the whole year to

:10:37.:10:43.

winkle it out and lay it out so people can understand the options.

:10:43.:10:48.

The north-east might have a top coat of yellow at Holyrood, but there is

:10:48.:10:53.

a multicoloured rainbow of political allegiances. All four main parties

:10:53.:10:58.

have a splattering of representatives, and there is a

:10:58.:11:02.

splash of green and independence as well. The irony is that the

:11:02.:11:07.

fisherman supported the SNP in the 1980s because the Conservatives were

:11:07.:11:11.

a pro-Europe party. Many felt the Common fisheries policy was

:11:11.:11:16.

destroying their industry. It was the SNP who were banging the drum.

:11:16.:11:22.

Fast forward, and it is the SNP who are talking about an independent

:11:22.:11:26.

Scotland being part of Europe and the Conservatives who are offering

:11:26.:11:30.

the option of the United Kingdom outside Europe. Tings have changed

:11:30.:11:34.

and many fishermen believe that could leave the Nationalists high

:11:34.:11:38.

and dry. I like the fast forward trick, I

:11:38.:11:42.

wonder if we have got a button here that could fast forward as to the

:11:42.:11:47.

result! The count is underway, hopefully we can bring you the

:11:47.:11:54.

result before 2am. That is our hope, if not necessarily our expectation.

:11:54.:12:04.
:12:04.:12:05.

Let's talk about the north-east. The SMP -- the SNP seem to have carved

:12:05.:12:11.

out the territory and made it their own. How did they do it? Primarily,

:12:11.:12:18.

by being able to exploit local issues. Perhaps suggesting that what

:12:18.:12:24.

he was talking about, Aberdeen feeling left out, but also, the SNP

:12:24.:12:29.

managed to champion local interest in the north-east, to do with

:12:29.:12:36.

farming and fishing. What is also true, having managed to capture some

:12:36.:12:42.

of those seats, they have managed to embed themselves in them through the

:12:42.:12:48.

popularity of the representatives. If you define the north-east,

:12:48.:12:56.

including Perth and Moray, nine of the ten top SNP seats are in the

:12:56.:13:03.

area. It has become a remarkable concentration. We do not know if it

:13:03.:13:09.

is to do with independence, very few independent opinion polls give us

:13:09.:13:13.

evidence about the regional breakdown, but we are not aware of

:13:13.:13:20.

any particular evidence that north-east are particularly keen.

:13:20.:13:23.

underline the remarkable situation that exists in that part of the

:13:23.:13:32.

country, with Mark McDonald having resigned to stand as a candidate, if

:13:32.:13:36.

he is elected, if anything happened to anybody else on the ten Mac row

:13:36.:13:42.

list, there is not a replacement. Yes, and you are talking about Alex

:13:42.:13:47.

Salmond's majority, notionally, if the Labour Party were to win the

:13:47.:13:57.
:13:57.:14:07.

seat, one of the opposition party wins, in practice, the independent,

:14:07.:14:12.

those who stepped down over NATO, tend to vote with the SNP, we are

:14:12.:14:18.

talking about a notional majority. The north-east generally is a SNP

:14:18.:14:25.

stronghold, but you have some real Liberal Democrat positions. This

:14:25.:14:32.

patch of Aberdeen, to the north of the city, Brian Adam was a list MSP

:14:32.:14:37.

in 1999, he took it with a tiny majority, and he has increased it

:14:37.:14:42.

exponentially to a large figure, but this patch of Aberdeen, the northern

:14:42.:14:50.

half of the city, has been Labour in the past. You look at the days of

:14:50.:15:00.
:15:00.:15:03.

Bob Hughes, , you did not count. This is an area they have had to

:15:03.:15:09.

win, through hard, diligent effort. Brian Adam did three things. There

:15:09.:15:16.

was a personal vote, somebody said that he took the new members and

:15:16.:15:21.

gave them support, he said, diligent, hard constituency work,

:15:21.:15:26.

but the third thing was organisation, we saw the Chief

:15:26.:15:34.

Executive of the party. Nothing was being left to chance. He was talking

:15:34.:15:43.

about the swing that might go from one side to the other.

:15:43.:15:47.

north-west constituency is still a Labour Party seat. If we were

:15:47.:15:52.

talking about a by-election in Aberdeen North, we would be

:15:52.:15:57.

anticipating a Labour victory, so that exemplifies a crucial truth

:15:57.:16:03.

about Scottish politics, that voters in Scotland about differently in

:16:03.:16:07.

Scottish Parliamentary elections from in Westminster elections, and

:16:07.:16:11.

ironically, devolution, which was meant to keep the Nationalists in

:16:12.:16:17.

their box, to kill nationalism, has provided the SNP with a political

:16:17.:16:22.

platform and environment that has allowed it to be successful. That is

:16:22.:16:31.

the reason why we have ended up with a referendum. What is interesting is

:16:31.:16:35.

if, in voting for SNP, people are wanting to vote for independence,

:16:35.:16:40.

rather than voting for a party which defends Scotland's interests within

:16:40.:16:50.

the UK. The political panel has changed very slightly. Liam McArthur

:16:50.:16:58.

has been replaced by the MP for Edinburgh West. In terms of the

:16:58.:17:02.

Labour Party and the extent to which they have lost ground to the SNP in

:17:02.:17:07.

this part of the country, what is the internal analysis in the Labour

:17:07.:17:12.

Party, what do you think has happened? We have got a

:17:12.:17:14.

sophisticated electorate, who are happy to vote for a political party

:17:14.:17:17.

in Westminster and do something different in the Scottish

:17:17.:17:25.

Parliament. Why do voters in Aberdeen Donside prefer to be

:17:25.:17:29.

represented by the Nationalists, why have they preferred that for the

:17:29.:17:35.

last ten years, and why has the Labour Party not bounced back?

:17:35.:17:39.

has got less to do with stun up for Scotland's interest and more to do

:17:39.:17:49.
:17:49.:17:49.

with individual interests. SNP stand up for tax cuts. It is looking after

:17:49.:17:54.

the pound in the pocket. It is a sense of retail politics that they

:17:54.:17:59.

went into the elections with. last Holyrood election, the Labour

:17:59.:18:05.

Party supported the council tax freeze also. And then the SNP

:18:05.:18:08.

increased the retail politics and put a better deal on the shelf,

:18:08.:18:13.

which proves the point. But it was popular. Does that make it a bad

:18:13.:18:19.

idea? Politics is getting cynical. It is about the top five offers that

:18:19.:18:27.

you have got. They were putting out the leaflets today, Mark McDonald

:18:27.:18:30.

will not save your school, because he will be voting for independence

:18:30.:18:36.

in Holyrood. You have to make the case in your local council. A lot of

:18:36.:18:40.

people will see through that. is the Liberal Democrat plan to win

:18:40.:18:45.

back lost support in places like Aberdeen South, which your party

:18:45.:18:54.

leader used to represent? Or in places like the Gordon constituency,

:18:54.:18:59.

it used to be Liberal Democrat in Holyrood, but now is represented by

:18:59.:19:05.

Alex Salmond. Absolutely. We will have to wait and see what the

:19:06.:19:11.

results are in the Poulter night. You are not predicting a late

:19:11.:19:19.

surge? A late game, yes! No, I am not at all. We took a beating two

:19:19.:19:25.

years ago will stop let's see what the results tonight. What has

:19:25.:19:29.

happened to the vote in those intervening two years. I am asking

:19:29.:19:34.

about strategy. The strategy is to make it clear what we are delivering

:19:34.:19:44.

in Westminster. Every taxpayer in Aberdeen has received 600 pounds tax

:19:44.:19:48.

cuts in the last three years, and it will be �700 next year. Pensioners

:19:48.:19:52.

have received the largest single increase they have ever had. We need

:19:53.:19:58.

to talk about what we have delivered in government, and by doing that, we

:19:58.:20:06.

can win people back. We saw Christine Jardine, a former special

:20:07.:20:11.

adviser to the UK Government. A moment or two ago, that is the live

:20:11.:20:16.

scene at the count as the votes stack up and we get ever closer

:20:16.:20:22.

towards a declaration. Of course we will bring that to you live. All in

:20:22.:20:30.

terms of numbers is 38% in the turn out. We have discussed that, but the

:20:30.:20:35.

North East, as Kezia Dugdale said, it is SNP Heartland territory. Do

:20:35.:20:40.

you think that could be at risk over the European issue, which is where

:20:40.:20:45.

the report by Kevin Keane ended earlier, if there is scepticism

:20:45.:20:50.

about the European Union among fishermen, farmers, that the

:20:50.:20:59.

possibility of getting out of the E U when the referendum that the

:20:59.:21:03.

Conservative Party is offering comes around, may be more attractive than

:21:03.:21:08.

you have to offer? Well, the idea of the SNP Heartland, coming overnight

:21:09.:21:16.

is a logical fallacy. An incredible amount of heart work, entrenchment

:21:16.:21:22.

and as Brian Adam was saying, it is -- as Brian Taylor was saying, it is

:21:22.:21:27.

something that Brian Adam said also, was that this was horde work and

:21:27.:21:34.

hard graft. Exploiting the fact that Labour thought that they had devine

:21:34.:21:39.

rule over, but in terms of the specific question with regards to

:21:39.:21:43.

the fisherman is Scotland's voice represented in the EU. There is a

:21:43.:21:48.

situation where if Scotland wishes to maintain its membership in the

:21:48.:21:52.

European Union, to have a voice through the Scottish government, the

:21:52.:21:56.

only way to do that is to vote "yes" next year.

:21:56.:22:02.

But then you would not have the UK's clout in order to influence the

:22:02.:22:08.

overall decision-making... That involves all 28 countries? If you

:22:08.:22:13.

look at how successful independent small European Union nations are,

:22:13.:22:17.

they are incredibly successful when it comes to negotiations. In fact

:22:17.:22:23.

more nimble and they are able to make alliances with other small

:22:23.:22:27.

countries and nations within the European Union. So it is patronising

:22:27.:22:33.

to say that Scotland not hold its on. I think that they can do it

:22:33.:22:36.

well. You would have fewer votes to bring

:22:36.:22:42.

to the table to get your own way? But the voice we would have at

:22:42.:22:47.

council meetings with the Scottish government ministers, they have made

:22:47.:22:52.

that voice well. They could be going further with their own independent

:22:52.:22:56.

voice. And briefly on the European theme,

:22:56.:23:02.

David? Nonsense. He proceeds on the basis that the Nistlerooys use a lot

:23:02.:23:07.

of time. There is no evidence of small countries coming together to

:23:07.:23:11.

overcome the large countries it is the large countries in Europe that

:23:11.:23:16.

call the shots. That's why the United Kingdom has been able to get

:23:16.:23:20.

finally a good deal on fishing for Scotland which will give more

:23:20.:23:25.

regional control over our fisheries. Scotland on its own could not have

:23:25.:23:30.

gotten that deal. In the past, in order to protect

:23:30.:23:35.

broader UK interests, you sacrificed the interests of the Scottish

:23:35.:23:41.

fishing industry. That has come out in the paperwork down the years?

:23:41.:23:45.

don't accept that. Obviously, the United Kingdom has to have a

:23:45.:23:49.

position that takes into account the interests of the whole of the United

:23:49.:23:53.

Kingdom, but there have been times... There have been times when

:23:53.:23:59.

the fishing has not been a priority for the UK? No. I don't accept that.

:23:59.:24:04.

What I point to is a very, very good example of the United Kingdom

:24:04.:24:08.

getting a very good deal for Scotland. There is absolutely no

:24:08.:24:13.

evidence to back up this assertion that small countries come together

:24:13.:24:18.

to defeat the larger interests in Europe. That is not how it works.

:24:18.:24:24.

OK. We will come back to you all in due course. Now let's go back live

:24:24.:24:31.

to Aberdeen, to the count. Now to Steve Godden. He has guests with

:24:31.:24:38.

him. Before you bring them in, Steven, I happen to know you

:24:38.:24:42.

reporting from Aberdeen Donside is a bit of a home-coming is it not?

:24:43.:24:49.

is. Yes. I grew up here in the constituency. From a personal tlefl

:24:49.:24:53.

is a delight to come back and see the old haurts, but it is

:24:53.:24:57.

interesting to see how things have changed and in some ways stayed the

:24:57.:25:01.

same. I remember learning to drive on the haudagain roundabout. People

:25:02.:25:06.

are still talking about it, that is 17 years ago. So there are long-term

:25:06.:25:10.

concerns that the people are still talking about it, and they still

:25:10.:25:14.

want it addressed. A little update from what is happening in the room.

:25:14.:25:19.

I get the sense that things have calmed down after the initial flurry

:25:19.:25:23.

of xierment. Maybe after the long campaign, the adrenaline is starting

:25:23.:25:29.

to wear off, but what I would say is that maybe the caffeine will kick in

:25:29.:25:34.

soon. The one thing we have had confirmed since I spoke to you was

:25:34.:25:44.
:25:44.:25:46.

the turnout. That is 38 peshz. With me are two gentlemen, Sir Malcolm

:25:46.:25:51.

Bruce and how do you read that turn out? It is disappointing with a turn

:25:51.:25:55.

out as low as that. The majority have not taken part. I think that

:25:55.:26:01.

there has been a lack of inspiration from the two candidates. That people

:26:01.:26:08.

are upset that Aberdeen been left the most underfunded council in

:26:08.:26:14.

Scotland. Also they are looking at a Labour-led administration council

:26:14.:26:17.

that seems antidevelopment. So people are angry at both the Labour

:26:17.:26:22.

and the SNP. That is why our vote appears to have gone up. People want

:26:22.:26:27.

to see the transport situation resolved. They want everything ready

:26:27.:26:31.

to go. They want to see Aberdeen getting a fair funding. They

:26:31.:26:35.

contribute a huge amount in the economy, yet people are happy to

:26:35.:26:40.

spend that money in the central belt. People are angry about that.

:26:40.:26:45.

How do you assess what is happening tonight? We had a poor showing last

:26:45.:26:49.

year. We have tried to draw the support back. What we are pleased

:26:49.:26:55.

with is that the issues we raced on the doorstep have been fed back.

:26:55.:27:01.

People have come back to say thank you for the third Donside crossing.

:27:01.:27:07.

Thank you for the Western peripheral Route which the Liberal Democrats

:27:07.:27:13.

initiated with the support of others. They are asking why does the

:27:13.:27:17.

haudagain have to wait. They are concerned -- concerned about the

:27:18.:27:26.

school mergers that give no benefit to the community. They also feel

:27:26.:27:28.

that they lack support from the council.

:27:28.:27:32.

We have been talking about the issues for a long time. Your party

:27:32.:27:37.

has been in power for that period. If I take you, the third Donside

:27:37.:27:43.

crossing it is ready to go with the planning permission, with all of the

:27:43.:27:46.

structure plans as the Liberal Democrats took it forward when we

:27:46.:27:50.

left the council. It took ten years to get it to go. The Labour group

:27:50.:27:55.

have said that they would block it if they could. They tried to, but if

:27:55.:27:59.

people see it ready to go, the tender should be out, it should be

:27:59.:28:07.

built. The same with the western peripheral route. Why is it not

:28:07.:28:10.

going? They are dragging their feet on

:28:10.:28:14.

stuff we have ready to go. It would apeefr that the SNP are

:28:14.:28:19.

going to hold the seat, but there has been a drop in the society

:28:19.:28:29.
:28:29.:28:29.

share. It has drop #d from 55% in 2011 -- it has dropped from 55%. The

:28:30.:28:36.

message from this by-election that they will not get 50% here and they

:28:36.:28:40.

will struggle if they can't do it in their heartlands.

:28:40.:28:45.

If independence has been a big issue on the doorsteps for the people, why

:28:45.:28:49.

has it not been an issue in the campaign. The SNP have been allowed

:28:49.:28:53.

to fight this on their terms, you could have done more to stop that,

:28:54.:28:59.

couldn't you? The way in which the independence manifests sits is the

:28:59.:29:04.

fact that people are becoming disinterested in politics. That is

:29:04.:29:09.

partly the explanation for the low turnout. There is a measurable

:29:09.:29:14.

distaste for some of the campaigning going on. This is why the inspect

:29:14.:29:18.

inspect have been able to turn out with enough votes to win the

:29:18.:29:24.

by-election. They will look at the figures and be as disappointed as

:29:24.:29:28.

they were. What about your share of the vote?

:29:28.:29:33.

wonder if UKIP are a factor in this? Probably not. We are in a position

:29:33.:29:37.

where we are confident that the Conservatives and the Liberal

:29:37.:29:41.

Democrats will take the third and the fourth place, but at the moment

:29:41.:29:46.

we are not sure who is going to be third and who will be fourth.

:29:46.:29:51.

Perhaps Malcolm and I can have a bet on that, but it is clear that UKIP

:29:51.:29:57.

have picked up some votes, but I would be surprised if they held them

:29:57.:30:00.

later tonight. Are you willing to place a bet on

:30:00.:30:09.

the third place? I gather that our agents have a bolt of Highland Park,

:30:10.:30:14.

but I hope that the democrats win, I would like a nip of that whisky, but

:30:14.:30:19.

we have the potential to be squeezed. This is a by-election for

:30:19.:30:26.

Labour to win. They have failed to do that but the SNP has failed to

:30:26.:30:30.

galvanise people to support them. The wheels are coming off. People

:30:30.:30:35.

are beginning to realise that the independence is a very, very big

:30:35.:30:41.

project. I am surprised by the passion of the people saying that

:30:41.:30:46.

they don't wish to do that. Here in the North East of Scotland, they

:30:46.:30:55.

have been happy to take our votes but only 1% of the Scotland seat.

:30:55.:31:00.

The control has been taken away from the fair service, they are

:31:00.:31:03.

strangling local government with squeezes. People are beginning to

:31:03.:31:07.

realise that this is a nasty centralising party that does not

:31:07.:31:11.

give places like the North East room to breathe. People are angry. And

:31:11.:31:15.

that is just the girning of the tide. When the tied turns against

:31:15.:31:19.

the SNP in the North East it could turn a big way.

:31:19.:31:24.

We have seen closures of schools in the by-election, but the reason for

:31:24.:31:30.

that pressure on schools in Aberdeen is that the SNP are not giving

:31:30.:31:33.

Aberdeen its fair share fr local government funding. So there is

:31:33.:31:37.

pressure but the inspect. SNP are behind that.

:31:37.:31:42.

But you are looking to close these schools? Well, the council of

:31:42.:31:49.

administration is doing what is necessary. The Conservatives in

:31:49.:31:53.

particular have been instruments in that. We talked about the third on

:31:53.:31:59.

crossing. Its was a motion in the name of Ross Thomson that finally

:31:59.:32:05.

put up Project in Motion that is something that Ross has been able to

:32:05.:32:09.

claim as his success as a first year for at councillor. So a lot of work

:32:09.:32:16.

is being done in Aberdeen. This is a dynamic place. An important part of

:32:16.:32:22.

the economy, but one in which an SNP government is dragging its feet.

:32:22.:32:26.

The other thing that came through, there is a sense of unease about the

:32:26.:32:31.

direction in which Aberdeen is heading. Perhaps it has not the

:32:31.:32:35.

rewards for the oil money that was flown through to this city for a

:32:35.:32:40.

long time. People are saying this is the oil capital of the world, it

:32:40.:32:45.

does not feel nor like like it. That is damaging to the economy. The

:32:45.:32:51.

thing that concerns me is a lack of urgency with the Scottish Government

:32:51.:32:57.

to unlock the dynamic that is necessary. I will not make an issue

:32:57.:33:04.

of the fact. We don't have an overall majority, but Labour lead

:33:04.:33:10.

the administration and Labour appear negative and hostile to a vision of

:33:10.:33:14.

development for apdeeb. The first thing to happen was to resers the

:33:14.:33:23.

decision on the rum -- was to reverse the decision on the Football

:33:23.:33:30.

Club and it was to get this through. What we have is a spat between

:33:30.:33:34.

Labour and the SNP for territory, where the people of Aberdeen are the

:33:34.:33:39.

victims, they are not the gainers. They are not delivering of them,

:33:39.:33:44.

either of them for the North East of Scotland. This has been

:33:44.:33:47.

characterised as a by-election for a roundabout. How do you think that

:33:47.:33:51.

the by-election will be remembered in terms of significance? It will be

:33:51.:33:58.

remembered as a by-election that was fought on local issues. You have

:33:58.:34:04.

heard, if -- that was on the impact of the local issues, Aberdeen has

:34:05.:34:08.

problems, the bottleneck, the haudagain roundabout, most of us

:34:08.:34:13.

will participate in that campaign will have had to suffer to get in

:34:13.:34:20.

and out of the constituency. It has high lighted the issues. Hope that

:34:21.:34:25.

whatever wins will go back and fight the corner for Aberdeen, for the

:34:26.:34:31.

advertisement it needs and does not make the error of following the

:34:31.:34:35.

Government practise. Glen, I will carry on with the trip

:34:35.:34:39.

down memory lane. We will be back soon when I hope to hear from UKIP.

:34:39.:34:49.
:34:49.:34:49.

Come back soon. You are watching a Newsnight

:34:49.:34:53.

Scotland special, and our promise is to stay on air until we get the

:34:53.:34:58.

declaration in Aberdeen Donside. Some time, we hope, between now and

:34:58.:35:04.

2am. The longer it takes, the more likely we are to give you a treat

:35:04.:35:11.

from the BBC election archive. We have been looking through that

:35:11.:35:17.

today, and we have found a classic report by Vincent Hanna on the 1982

:35:17.:35:23.

Hillhead by-election, the Westminster by-election, one of the

:35:23.:35:28.

famous by-elections in Scottish electoral history. We will play it

:35:28.:35:35.

in full if we have not had a result by 1:15am. It will demonstrate how

:35:35.:35:42.

much campaigning has changed over the last 30 years. I was six years

:35:42.:35:49.

old in 1982. What age where you? You can go off people! I was sitting

:35:49.:35:55.

here, trying not to disclose the fact that I covered that

:35:56.:36:01.

by-election, as a child reporter! I was at Westminster, I went up to

:36:01.:36:06.

have a look at it, because it was stunning. Other treats me include

:36:06.:36:16.
:36:16.:36:18.

the contents of John Curtice was Mike favourite oak. 1832 to 2012.

:36:18.:36:25.

Did you have a favourite electoral pact? We tend to rule the winners

:36:25.:36:32.

and leave the losers to their sad fate. But occasionally, losers do

:36:32.:36:36.

something remarkable. The candidate who has done the worst ever in a

:36:36.:36:42.

general election, Taylor Dawson in Cardiff North, the authors of the

:36:42.:36:47.

book say they are not quite sure if it is right, but she only got one

:36:47.:36:52.

vote. Given that you have got to get eight or ten people to nominate

:36:52.:37:02.
:37:02.:37:02.

you, she did rather badly! It might be that she ended up spreading her

:37:02.:37:09.

vote to Finlay, because she did not just fight one constituency, she

:37:09.:37:14.

fought all of them in Cardiff, and she did better elsewhere, but she

:37:14.:37:21.

missed out in Cardiff North. Did she have a vote in that constituency? !

:37:21.:37:25.

With a name like hers, it was not immediately obvious that she was

:37:25.:37:30.

somebody that would appeal to everybody who comes from Wales, but

:37:30.:37:35.

maybe that is reading too much into it. They had not invented the symbol

:37:35.:37:41.

loser by that point! We were talking about independence and the extent to

:37:41.:37:46.

which it played in the Aberdeen Donside campaign. It is beyond

:37:46.:37:51.

question the dominant issue of Scottish politics, and will remain

:37:51.:37:57.

so until the referendum on the 18th of September next year. Brian Taylor

:37:57.:38:01.

has been looking at some of the polling on that, and here is what he

:38:01.:38:07.

found. Here is the agreed referendum

:38:07.:38:12.

question, should Scotland be an independent country? What will be

:38:12.:38:15.

the answer from the people of Scotland? Academics have been

:38:16.:38:20.

chucking opinion polls. This is the picture from polls this year, which

:38:20.:38:26.

asked the question. The graph suggests a consistent, variable read

:38:27.:38:34.

for those supporting the union. Support for independence ranges at

:38:34.:38:41.

around 36%, but opposition to independence fairies. Between ten

:38:41.:38:48.

and 21% say they are undecided. Could that picture change? Better

:38:48.:38:52.

together campaigners said they finding the views on the doorstep

:38:52.:38:57.

are backing the junior. But the yes campaign say they can and will sway

:38:57.:39:02.

opinion to their side. Their canvassers asked people to place

:39:02.:39:07.

themselves on a spectrum from one, complete opposition to independence,

:39:07.:39:13.

to ten, total support for independence. They acknowledge that

:39:13.:39:17.

the default position currently lies closer to one down to ten. But they

:39:17.:39:24.

detect signs that it is moving their way. What might sway popular

:39:24.:39:29.

opinion? The economy. Remember this? The Scottish social attitudes

:39:29.:39:35.

survey. Respondents were asked their views if it could be guaranteed that

:39:35.:39:40.

they would be �500 better off each year under independence. The survey

:39:40.:39:46.

suggested they would back independence by 65 to 25. But turned

:39:46.:39:52.

that around, voters were asked their views if it could be shown they

:39:52.:39:57.

would be �500 worse off. Independence was rigid did. As

:39:57.:40:01.

ever, the pound in the pocket matters.

:40:01.:40:10.

Let's talk a bit about that. Were you surprised? That is research that

:40:10.:40:15.

you have been involved in. Were you surprised when the �500 question

:40:15.:40:20.

produced such marked results? were not that surprised. Underneath

:40:20.:40:26.

that question is also the fact that, if you do what we like to do, try to

:40:26.:40:29.

keep track of what is driving people, and asked people what they

:40:30.:40:36.

think independence would bring, and relate that to whether they are for

:40:36.:40:45.

or against it, the expectation about independence that most matters, is

:40:45.:40:50.

most clearly related to whether people are for or against, is there

:40:50.:40:54.

few as to whether the economy would be better or worse. To that extent,

:40:55.:40:59.

it is clear that this is the issue which seems most capable of writing

:40:59.:41:06.

public opinion. One thing to say, it is giving you some indication of the

:41:06.:41:13.

maximum size of the yes and no vote, because it says to people, let's

:41:13.:41:17.

shame you really were convinced that Scotland would be worse off, so if

:41:17.:41:22.

everybody were convinced that they would be better off, maybe two

:41:22.:41:26.

thirds of the country would vote in favour. The question is, can the yes

:41:26.:41:31.

side persuade anything approaching that many that Scotland would be

:41:31.:41:37.

better off? The answer seems to be they have only persuaded around a

:41:37.:41:42.

third of people. A third thing is the God you would be worse off, and

:41:42.:41:48.

a quarter in the middle. At the moment, it seems that the people in

:41:48.:41:55.

the middle also seem to be inclined to say, it is not worth the bother

:41:55.:42:01.

of leaving the union. The problem the yes side face is that they are

:42:01.:42:06.

looking at an asymmetric race, they have to win the argument, the other

:42:06.:42:11.

side just simply have to avoid losing. But if the yes side can win

:42:11.:42:17.

the argument, the potential is there. Are you picking up signs that

:42:17.:42:23.

the yes campaign and the opposite campaign are working hard on

:42:23.:42:28.

economic arguments to seal the deal? Absolutely, but it is an

:42:28.:42:34.

asymmetric race. It is not like a general election, where competing

:42:34.:42:36.

propositions are tested to destruction and the one that

:42:36.:42:40.

survived the best wins. In this case, we will examine what the

:42:40.:42:49.

prounion parties are offering. It is a referendum, with a single

:42:49.:42:52.

proposition of independence being the primary source to be tested.

:42:52.:42:58.

This referendum will proceed by doubt and reassurance. The union

:42:58.:43:02.

parties will not say Scotland cannot be independent, they will throw in

:43:02.:43:09.

the doubts. Primarily about the economy, but also about the European

:43:09.:43:15.

Union membership, etc. You could be independent, but the economy, at the

:43:15.:43:22.

defence profile... It is up to the proponents of independence to offer

:43:22.:43:28.

a more detailed form of reassurance. At the moment, it would seem that

:43:28.:43:32.

the reassurance is not sufficient to trump the doubts that are there in

:43:32.:43:36.

people 's minds, but the reason that the money question is so intriguing,

:43:36.:43:43.

it indicates there is not a fixed view, people are on a spectrum, even

:43:43.:43:48.

those who advocate independence, they concede that the swing is

:43:48.:43:53.

towards the one rather than the 10th, they think if they can pick

:43:53.:43:56.

away at the doubts and get it out in the open and swamp them with

:43:56.:44:04.

reassurance, they can get the swingometer the other side. We have

:44:04.:44:11.

a new member on our panel, Stuart Maxwell from the SNP. Humza Yousaf

:44:11.:44:19.

has gone home to his bed! On independence, I wonder, what is it

:44:19.:44:24.

that the yes campaign are going to do to build support? At what point

:44:24.:44:30.

do you expect the polls to start moving in your favour, if you are

:44:30.:44:33.

convinced you can do this? I am absolutely convinced. I cannot

:44:33.:44:38.

predict when the pulse will shift. If you go back to 2011, the opinion

:44:39.:44:44.

polls up to two months before showed us between ten and 15 points behind,

:44:45.:44:52.

but we won by 18 points. The pulse will shift, next year sometime,

:44:52.:44:55.

people will begin to seriously address the issue of the fact that

:44:55.:45:00.

they have to make a choice in September 2014. Just now, there is a

:45:00.:45:06.

lot of thinking going on. When I talk to people in Aberdeen Donside,

:45:06.:45:11.

I spoke to a lot of people, they said they had not yet really

:45:11.:45:16.

considered it. The opinion polls are not reflecting the fact that most

:45:16.:45:21.

people are in the middle point, they are waiting to hear what everybody

:45:21.:45:26.

has to say. When it comes to reassuring people, are we going to

:45:26.:45:34.

hear more from the Scottish government and the broader yes side

:45:34.:45:36.

about what Scotland would or could continue to share with the rest of

:45:36.:45:44.

the UK? It seems to be emerging as a theme in your campaign. Both things

:45:44.:45:48.

are important, we will say that some things will be the same, some things

:45:48.:45:53.

we will share, it would make sense for an independent Scotland and the

:45:53.:46:00.

rest of the UK to share certain aspects of life going forward, but

:46:00.:46:05.

also, basic administration, we live on the same island, so a lot of

:46:05.:46:09.

things would have to run in tandem. You could not run different

:46:09.:46:13.

timetables for trains. There are practical, sensible things we can

:46:13.:46:20.

run together. They do not matter whether you are independent or not.

:46:20.:46:24.

But the positive issues that we will put forward will be about the

:46:24.:46:28.

differences, the choices we can make, the fact that we can always

:46:28.:46:35.

get the government we want after independence. The best people to

:46:35.:46:39.

decide on the future of Scotland are the people that live here.

:46:39.:46:46.

extent to which the SNP government is offering reassurance on the

:46:46.:46:51.

pensions and welfare Administration or on staying in NATO, keeping the

:46:51.:46:56.

Queen, the pound, do you think that is reassuring people and is

:46:56.:47:00.

neutralising some of the doubts and fears that your side have raised?

:47:00.:47:06.

made an excellent case for the union. What you get from the SNP,

:47:06.:47:10.

they will say anything to anybody if it is what they want them to hear.

:47:10.:47:16.

Their message to businesses, we will cut corporation tax, their message

:47:16.:47:18.

to the left-wingers, we will have Scandinavian style social services,

:47:18.:47:23.

but they do not talk about how they can marry together. How can you have

:47:23.:47:30.

both? People are waking up to the arguments, they understand the

:47:30.:47:34.

challenges and they are scrutinising the detail. They want more than a

:47:34.:47:40.

shared assertion from the SNP. you look at the polls that we have

:47:40.:47:46.

been discussing, do you think, this is in the bag? Not at all, we will

:47:46.:47:51.

work every day until the 18th of September next year. We will fight

:47:51.:47:55.

for every vote to make sure we stay strong within the UK. We will

:47:55.:48:00.

continue to do that. The legwork is for the yes campaign is to make if

:48:00.:48:04.

they want to see a yes vote next year, they know they have got a

:48:04.:48:09.

problem with young people and with women. We will hear a lot more

:48:09.:48:14.

retail politics, assertion, ideas thrown towards women and young

:48:14.:48:23.

people to tempt them over. Is this a term you recognise? I understand

:48:23.:48:25.

what she means, she was complaining earlier that this is what people

:48:26.:48:32.

were talking about. This is a debate about two things. It is in part

:48:32.:48:35.

about what independence would or would not ring to Scotland in terms

:48:35.:48:41.

of a better life people. But it also has to be said, it is about

:48:41.:48:45.

identity, how we feel and who we want to share our lives with. The

:48:45.:48:54.

inch reading thing that we have uncovered, ironically, this is not

:48:54.:48:57.

really a debate about Scottish nurse, so much as a debate about the

:48:57.:49:05.

edition is. The truth is, Scotland... Virtually everybody in

:49:05.:49:13.

Scotland feels strongly Scottish. Two thirds of people in Scotland,

:49:13.:49:20.

when asked to say how Scottish they feel, they were six or seven on the

:49:20.:49:24.

scale out of seven. What divides people is whether they acknowledge

:49:24.:49:28.

feeling British or not. Those who are reluctant to vote for

:49:28.:49:32.

independence are those who retain that sense of Britishness.

:49:32.:49:39.

Ironically, although the proposition on the ballot paper, should Scotland

:49:39.:49:42.

be an independent country, it looks for many voters the proposition they

:49:42.:49:49.

are addressing is, should Scotland remain in the UK?

:49:49.:49:53.

We should talk about the smaller parties standing in Aberdeen

:49:53.:49:59.

Donside. We should talk about the UK Independence Party, they have been

:49:59.:50:07.

hoping for a breakthrough in the campaign. We can cross now to Lord

:50:07.:50:13.

Monckton, who is at the count in Aberdeen. Thank you very much for

:50:13.:50:20.

joining us, Lord Monckton. Your leader, Nigel Farage, campaigned in

:50:20.:50:26.

Donside. He made another couple of visits to Scotland during the

:50:26.:50:30.

campaign, he promised a breakthrough, do you think you have

:50:30.:50:34.

made it? We have made a breakthrough. I think it is clear

:50:35.:50:40.

now that we are going to keep our deposit. You may think 5% of the

:50:40.:50:46.

vote, how is that a breakthrough but for a party that has never before

:50:46.:50:50.

fielded a candidate in this way to come close to keeping his deposit in

:50:50.:50:55.

a national election rather than a European one, this is a significant

:50:55.:51:00.

breakthrough. No doubt about it, we are here in Scotland, we are here to

:51:00.:51:04.

stay and we are building from here. It is not quite a revolution, though

:51:05.:51:11.

is it? No. Most revolutions are slow. UKIP has been around for 20

:51:11.:51:16.

years. It took 20 years for UKIP to achieve the real breakthrough south

:51:16.:51:22.

of the border, we hope it will take a little less for that breakthrough

:51:22.:51:27.

north of the border but this is the first significant step.

:51:27.:51:32.

During the campaign, the most prominent political moment in the

:51:32.:51:36.

campaign did not happen in Aberdeen but in Edinburgh. Your leader was

:51:37.:51:41.

mobbed at a pub where he was holding a press conference. In fact he had

:51:41.:51:46.

to be barricaded inside the pub for his own safety and security. He was

:51:46.:51:53.

then led away by the police. They used a riot van to get him out of

:51:53.:52:02.

there. He accused the pro tersers of being anti-English. -- protesters of

:52:02.:52:07.

being anti-English. Do you think that helped him to pick up votes or

:52:07.:52:13.

might he have done better if he had handled things differently?

:52:13.:52:17.

protesters said get back to England, we don't want your sort here. Get

:52:17.:52:24.

back to England. They don't want the English in Scotland. If that is not

:52:24.:52:32.

anti-English, xenophobic, , what is it? There is an element in the SNP

:52:32.:52:37.

that does take that nasty line. We have come across it on the

:52:37.:52:43.

doorsteps. The people who have not made us welcome have been the

:52:43.:52:50.

hardliners in the SNP. They have become a very anticrowd.

:52:50.:52:55.

I think it was a group called Radical Independence that led that

:52:55.:53:02.

campaign. Although they believe in independence...

:53:02.:53:06.

INAUDIBLE I would accept it was a faction of

:53:06.:53:10.

the SNP or it has overlaps of the SNP.

:53:10.:53:14.

You are asserting that, I don't think there is evidence for it, do

:53:14.:53:21.

you have evidence of it? Yes. They are connected with an outfit called

:53:21.:53:24.

the Antifascist Alliance. That puts pictures of some of its people on

:53:24.:53:29.

the website. Some of those are definitely SNP members at well.

:53:29.:53:36.

They say that they were campaigning against racism, actually it is UK

:53:36.:53:42.

independence -- it is the UK Independence Party, the policies,

:53:42.:53:47.

certainly you have had to discipline and remove some of the members from

:53:47.:53:53.

the party for expressing certain views? Let be clear. We are not a

:53:53.:53:59.

racist party it is a very funny way to accuse another party of being

:53:59.:54:04.

racist, when you shout racist slogans at it. It was not we who got

:54:04.:54:08.

arrested by the police as a result of that incident but they. Let's

:54:08.:54:14.

remember who was badly behaved here it was not us. Merely we wish to

:54:14.:54:17.

leave the European Union, that does not mean that we are anti-European.

:54:17.:54:26.

On the contrary, we are the most pro-European. We realise that the

:54:26.:54:29.

antidemocratic structure of the European Union represents for the

:54:29.:54:35.

whole of Europe. I spent years studying the civilisation of Ancient

:54:35.:54:41.

Greece and Rome... I would not get into that now, let's ask another

:54:41.:54:45.

question... We are not anti-European, we are not

:54:45.:54:49.

anti-English. I would like to ask you where you

:54:49.:54:54.

stand on the Scottish dlsh British identity question. Where do you

:54:54.:54:59.

stand on that? Do you identify as a Scottish party in Scotland? Well,

:54:59.:55:03.

all of us who are Scottish are proud to be Scottish. One of the great

:55:03.:55:08.

glories of the Scottish nation is that we remain proud of our

:55:08.:55:13.

nationhood while, at the same time, being at ease with Europe, though

:55:13.:55:16.

increasingly ill at ease with the European Union. So I think that

:55:16.:55:20.

there is a Scottish identity but also a British identity, that we

:55:21.:55:26.

have come across strongly among all parties on the street. Many, even in

:55:26.:55:31.

the SNP, who do not want jut right independence. The SNP has been

:55:31.:55:36.

unable to recent weeks to answer questions about how to pay for not

:55:36.:55:41.

just defence but welfare which applies very much in this questions

:55:41.:55:47.

and also health services. After the Barnet formula... Hang on a minute.

:55:47.:55:52.

Health service is being paid for... OK. Thank you very much.

:55:52.:55:57.

At the moment there is no doubt that the numbers do not add up. The

:55:57.:56:00.

numbers have not been done. Thank you very much. The UK

:56:00.:56:08.

Independence Party member, Lord Monckton live. He said that the SNP

:56:08.:56:16.

was the Scottish nasty party, but Sir Malcolm Bruce described the SNP

:56:16.:56:21.

as being nasty earlier, would you like to respond? I would not dignify

:56:21.:56:26.

them with any responses, but there is a way to point out that clearly

:56:27.:56:35.

members of UKIP and unfortunately Malcolm Bruce have taken negative

:56:35.:56:39.

commentary about others putting forward a legitimate position.

:56:39.:56:46.

But you are the -- but you failed when asked, to condemn the language

:56:47.:56:53.

used in that demonstration, it was not the only way in which the pro

:56:53.:56:56.

testers against Nigel Farage expressed themselves but they did

:56:56.:57:01.

suggest where he might like to place the Union flag and your leader

:57:01.:57:06.

failed to condemn that? He said hefrn a right to protest. Peaceful

:57:06.:57:10.

protest is a reasonable thing in our society. We accept that people have

:57:10.:57:15.

a right to say to may members of UKIP that we don't agree with the

:57:15.:57:19.

policies, we don't support nor want them here that is acceptable in

:57:19.:57:25.

terms of the policies of UKIP. I would agree with the protesters in

:57:25.:57:30.

that sense, but many were not members of the SNP a number were

:57:30.:57:35.

English people. The idea that there was some SNP anti-English protest is

:57:35.:57:41.

ridiculous it is a slur on the SNP, I absolutely reject it.

:57:41.:57:46.

If UKIP held their deposit, would you accept, David, that it is a

:57:46.:57:51.

borough for them in Scottish terms and is it worrying for you given

:57:51.:57:56.

that they steal votes from you in England? I don't think it is a

:57:56.:58:01.

borough. UKIP's pitch is a pitch, a plague on

:58:01.:58:06.

all your houses. It is a protest vote it is no doubt about that, by

:58:06.:58:10.

people unhappy with the EU, unhappy about immigration. I don't think it

:58:10.:58:15.

is from people who look at a person who they thought that they would

:58:15.:58:20.

elect as their MSP tonight it is a message. We all have to listen to

:58:20.:58:24.

that. We can't ignore the fact that the voters in Scotland, just as

:58:24.:58:27.

elsewhere in the United Kingdom are concerned about immigration I

:58:27.:58:32.

issues. For example, politicians have to be able to speak about the

:58:32.:58:38.

issues, to put them forward in a coherent and reasonable proposals so

:58:38.:58:43.

that UKIP don't get a groundswell on the basis that the issues are not

:58:43.:58:46.

talked about, but I don't see them making significant headway in

:58:46.:58:50.

Scotland. We have a Nistlerooy party in Scotland.

:58:50.:58:59.

-- we have a nationalist party in Scotland that is what UKIP.

:58:59.:59:04.

Mike Crockhart, are you worried that UKIP could finish ahead in the

:59:04.:59:10.

by-election? I don't think so. If they can save their deposit, they

:59:10.:59:15.

can be happy with that, but there is no great support for UKIP's policies

:59:15.:59:20.

in Scotland. Of that I am sure. We used to benefit from being the party

:59:20.:59:24.

of protest. That Mantell has been taken away from us. We have been in

:59:24.:59:29.

Government in Westminster. We can no longer be the party that people turn

:59:29.:59:36.

to when they want to, as David has said, to be a plague on the rest of

:59:36.:59:41.

your houses. They are turning to UKIP for that but it is not an

:59:41.:59:46.

endorsement of the policies of UKIP. How do you assess Nigel Farage and

:59:46.:59:52.

the UKIP party? I think that people are mostly protesting at the Lib

:59:52.:59:56.

Demes now, rather than giving their votes for that reason. I don't agree

:59:56.:00:00.

for what UKIP stand for but I respect their right to say it. I

:00:00.:00:06.

wish that those who protested that day had put their energy into the

:00:06.:00:10.

arguments rather than shouting them down in the streets it was not

:00:11.:00:14.

edifying for the country, but what excited me most about the package

:00:14.:00:20.

was the arrival of Willie Young into the Aberdeen count there. So good

:00:20.:00:27.

news. Firstly, I am hearing good news from Glenrothes. We are seeing

:00:27.:00:31.

a significant swing to Labour in Aberdeen now as well. If it is

:00:31.:00:39.

right, if what I am hearing is right, it is a 6 or 7% swing. Enough

:00:39.:00:47.

to take out cask cask cask, and -- Kenny McAfghanistanily and Nicola

:00:47.:00:50.

Sturgeon and that is why you are seeing the smiles on Labour faces.

:00:50.:00:57.

Thank you very much. We can go back to Aberdeen, to Steve Godden at the

:00:57.:01:06.

count with an update. Steven. The lull I spoke about is over.

:01:06.:01:12.

People over there by the door lining up waiting for the arrival of Mark

:01:12.:01:17.

McDonald, the SNP candidate. Willie Young arrived, the Labour candidate,

:01:17.:01:22.

to huge applause. A sense that we are building to a kind of climax.

:01:22.:01:27.

There is is a picture starting to emerge. All of the usual caveats

:01:27.:01:34.

apply, but a picture of ral the SNP win winning -- really the SNP

:01:34.:01:37.

winning the majority and Labour coming second and the Liberal

:01:37.:01:40.

Democrats coming third. The feeling from the Liberal Democrats side of

:01:41.:01:46.

thing is that they have picked up support in areas where they have

:01:46.:01:54.

traditionally done well but were deserted in 2011. I am talking about

:01:54.:01:59.

Dyce and Bridge of Don. So there is the perception that work has paid

:01:59.:02:05.

off. The figures in terms of the share of the vote that are about 40%

:02:05.:02:12.

for the SNP, about 30% for Labour and 8% or 9% for the Liberal

:02:12.:02:17.

Democrats with the Conservatives in fourth. So things are starting to

:02:17.:02:22.

emerge. Still no firm news on when the declaration will be made. Some

:02:22.:02:28.

saying about 1. 30am. Others saying 2.00am. The voice of experience,

:02:28.:02:35.

people saying probably nearer to 2.00am than 1. 30am. So we will

:02:35.:02:41.

await the SNP's arrival here, so things starting to pick up here now.

:02:41.:02:45.

And a quick word with Professor John Curtice on the provisional numbers

:02:45.:02:49.

that Steven shared with us. There is a comparison nobody

:02:50.:02:54.

mentioned. It is what happened in the constituency in the 2012 local

:02:54.:02:58.

elections, we cannot say exactly what happened as the boundaries

:02:58.:03:04.

don't much. On my calculations, the SNP got about 38% of the vote in the

:03:04.:03:09.

questions in 2012. It sounds as though that this will be the same

:03:09.:03:15.

again. Labour getting about 30%. So, yes, the gap between the parties is

:03:15.:03:19.

closer. That, should say is the arrival of

:03:19.:03:25.

Mark McDonald, the SNP candidate. Perhaps the next MSP for Aberdeen

:03:25.:03:29.

Donside. So the gap will be closer but this

:03:29.:03:34.

does not suggest that the SNP have gotten less popular now than they

:03:34.:03:40.

were over 12 months ago, but we have to recognise that they do not retain

:03:40.:03:45.

the high popularity that they had in 2011. We should not be surprised

:03:45.:03:49.

that the Liberal Democrats came third. So again in truth, this is

:03:49.:03:53.

going to maintain where they managed to be over 12 months ago, that is

:03:53.:03:57.

what they should achieve. Now, I think that is visually, it

:03:57.:04:02.

looks like a declaration of victory from Mark McDonald, even though we

:04:02.:04:07.

don't have the formal results. He has his fists clenched for the

:04:07.:04:11.

photographers. We have to say something about UKIP

:04:11.:04:15.

it is a question of whether or not the glass is half full or half

:04:15.:04:20.

empty. 5% of the vote would have been regarded as a remarkable

:04:20.:04:25.

performance. They got 1% on the list vote in 2011.

:04:25.:04:30.

Have they held a deposit in a first-past-the-post test in

:04:30.:04:38.

Scotland? Not to my memory. But y what to bare in find is short

:04:38.:04:42.

of the 20% vote that they got in Rotherham, in Middlesbrough, in

:04:43.:04:47.

south shields or the average 25% of the vote that they were getting in

:04:47.:04:51.

the English elections. This confirms that message that Scotland is not

:04:52.:04:56.

immune to the rise of UKIP that's been going on but that like London,

:04:57.:05:02.

UKIP are finding that Scotland is a much more difficult territory, not

:05:02.:05:09.

least as in Scotland if you do feel strong strongly about what you are

:05:09.:05:14.

concerned about, the feeling that you are being governed unnecessarily

:05:14.:05:20.

by London, whereas in England the issue is about being governed too

:05:20.:05:27.

much by Brussels and the immigration of immigration is an essential one

:05:27.:05:37.
:05:37.:05:37.

for UKIP. Lots of holding going on, perhaps

:05:37.:05:43.

they know more than 32, although everybody is expecting that the SNP

:05:43.:05:49.

will be victorious in Aberdeen Donside tonight. The question is, to

:05:49.:05:56.

what extent do they win, do what extent to the finish with a lead

:05:56.:06:01.

over Labour, and to what extent does the Labour Party eat into the

:06:01.:06:06.

league? If it is true that the Westminster coalition parties

:06:06.:06:11.

flip-flopped their positions and the Liberal Democrats finish ahead of

:06:11.:06:16.

the Conservatives, how do you view that? It was only in 2011 that Ross

:06:16.:06:24.

Thomson manage to beat the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats

:06:24.:06:31.

were third in 2007, 2003 and 1999. But they had a much higher share of

:06:31.:06:41.

the vote, 17.1% in 1999, 15.4 in 2007. It is the 2011 Scottish

:06:41.:06:46.

Parliament, the general election result, that was the anomaly.

:06:47.:06:52.

Re-establishing their position as being third in the constituency. It

:06:52.:06:57.

would be remarkable if UKIP had not gained something of a bounce, cause

:06:58.:07:07.
:07:08.:07:08.

of their successes relatively in England, but 5% will not win too

:07:08.:07:13.

many pies and peas. The candidates are in place at the camp, which

:07:13.:07:22.

might mean that things are getting closer. What can you tell us?

:07:22.:07:25.

getting there. All of the candidates are here. The last to arrive, Mark

:07:25.:07:32.

McDonald. Use all the shots of him coming into the hall at the Beacon

:07:32.:07:38.

Centre, he had his fists clenched, a triumphant entrance to the hall. The

:07:38.:07:43.

feeling is he has done enough to win this, but the majority will be

:07:44.:07:47.

reduced, that is the consensus. We are still waiting for the

:07:47.:07:57.

declaration. We will find out what has happened. Willie Young came in

:07:57.:08:01.

ten minutes before Mark McDonald, there was a big cheer for his

:08:01.:08:06.

arrival, so they are all in the hall, still a fair bit of activity

:08:06.:08:13.

going on, waiting for the declaration, but as I said, there is

:08:14.:08:19.

a picture starting to emerge of the SNP winning this seat with a reduced

:08:19.:08:26.

majority, the Labour Party share around 30%, compared to the SNP's

:08:26.:08:31.

40%, and the Liberal Democrats in third place with nine or 10%. The

:08:31.:08:37.

Conservatives in fourth place. All of the usual caveats apply, but that

:08:38.:08:42.

is the chatter here in the Beacon Centre, so we are waiting for the

:08:42.:08:46.

declaration, as we have been waiting all night. How is your trip down

:08:47.:08:52.

memory lane going? It is going fairly well. I have been here

:08:52.:08:57.

before, I played football outside, so this is a new experience, the

:08:57.:09:05.

hall. I have spoken about some horror stories about the roundabout,

:09:05.:09:10.

learning to drive there, and one of the schools that is involved in the

:09:10.:09:14.

controversy about mergers, they were our bitter rivals at primary

:09:14.:09:24.
:09:24.:09:26.

school, so it has been ingesting -- ingesting, speaking to people where

:09:26.:09:31.

I grew up, seeing some familiar faces, but it does not matter why I

:09:31.:09:37.

am here, it is why these people are here, and the declaration. We will

:09:37.:09:44.

be their life when it happens. Talking of memory lane, it is that

:09:44.:09:50.

time, it is 1:15am, and I promised that if we had not had a

:09:50.:09:54.

declaration, we would take a trip down memory lane and dip into the

:09:55.:10:00.

by-election archive. In 1982, Glasgow Hillhead was fiercely fought

:10:00.:10:06.

by all parties. The SDP worthy winners, with Roy Jenkins taking

:10:06.:10:14.

what had been a safe Tory seat. He is a look at how Vincent Hanna saw

:10:14.:10:24.
:10:24.:10:40.

Cheering election time, Lascaux Corporation thence disused buildings

:10:40.:10:49.

to political parties at �5 a week. The SDP grabbed the day centre. And

:10:49.:10:53.

they stocked it with many of the ladies who do social democratic

:10:53.:11:03.
:11:03.:11:15.

afternoon. He arrived with the flourish that befitted the tradition

:11:15.:11:22.

of English politicians who have carpet in Scotland. Did not his

:11:22.:11:25.

mentor Herbert Asquith find a seat in Scotland? He became Prime

:11:25.:11:31.

Minister. Herbert Asquith was never reduced to campaigning outside the

:11:32.:11:41.

Partick bingo hall. 43. It is not the sort of thing that he is good

:11:41.:11:46.

at. Especially when there are not many voters around. Good afternoon,

:11:46.:11:56.
:11:56.:12:09.

Roy Jenkins. How are you? Do you do you live? Clydebank. Quite a long

:12:09.:12:19.

way? Not too bad.Outside the constituency. Only one person he

:12:19.:12:25.

spoke to actually lived in Hillhead, and he was voting Labour. Good

:12:25.:12:32.

afternoon, Roy Jenkins, where do you live? Hillhead.Outside the

:12:32.:12:40.

constituency? He was finally forced to talk to the press for a while,

:12:40.:12:48.

before wandering off to his committee rooms. Gerry Malone is 31,

:12:48.:12:55.

a local solicitor who has been engaging and hard-working. As a

:12:55.:12:59.

loyal defender of government policy, it was his bad luck that the

:12:59.:13:03.

announcement of the Trident project last week provoked an alarmed

:13:03.:13:07.

reaction even from Hillhead Tories, who live only 25 miles from the

:13:07.:13:16.

base. He has paraded around with visiting politicians, like Ted

:13:16.:13:22.

Heath, who always manages to conceal his distaste for the party

:13:22.:13:31.

leadership. He is a Roman Catholic, anti-abortion and pro-hunting. He

:13:31.:13:37.

was carefully -- he has carefully concealed any disagreements on party

:13:37.:13:43.

policy. There now follows a party political cliche. There has been

:13:43.:13:50.

speculation about whether he is wet. The Labour Party is the only party

:13:50.:13:53.

that has the alternative to the disastrous economic policy of the

:13:53.:14:00.

government. David Wiseman has been described as a Marxist, which he

:14:00.:14:06.

does not deny. Helen Liddell, the Scottish party secretary, acted as a

:14:06.:14:15.

nanny to ensure that her candidate kept to his or her script.

:14:15.:14:21.

Everywhere he went, he was accompanied by political figures.

:14:21.:14:26.

This MP even gave him the rosette with which at Warrington he gained

:14:26.:14:33.

the lowest Labour vote since the war. Hillhead is usually on fertile

:14:33.:14:37.

ground for Scottish Nationalists, but the polls have shown that by

:14:37.:14:40.

dint of energy and personality, its cancer to James Heavey had made

:14:40.:14:46.

tonight be a crucial factor in determining who wins or loses. In

:14:46.:14:49.

the last few days, the polls have been dancing wildly about,

:14:49.:14:53.

predicting a victory for conservatives, labour and SDP, and

:14:53.:14:57.

the nerves of the party workers have been more than a little frayed,

:14:57.:15:01.

which is why at the weekend no gimmick was left untried, no stop

:15:01.:15:11.
:15:11.:15:12.

left and pulled. Hillhead went completely crazy. Early morning

:15:12.:15:16.

found us shivering in a car park at the top of Crow Road, with 60

:15:16.:15:19.

excited Conservatives, doing strange things with their cars. Unused

:15:19.:15:26.

onlookers hinted darkly of ancient Celtic rights and the party

:15:26.:15:34.

organisers explained that it was a media event. They were trying to

:15:34.:15:38.

spell their candidate's name in cars. Nobody seemed to know why. It

:15:38.:15:43.

took an awfully long time. Meanwhile, the Labour campaign was

:15:43.:15:53.
:15:53.:15:58.

similar -- formidable political machine, and the effort on Saturday

:15:58.:16:04.

was immense. The tactics of keeping Mr Wiseman smiling and waving but

:16:04.:16:07.

not saying a lot was having an effect on the polls. The

:16:07.:16:13.

Conservatives had sent for a hoist, so that a handful of people other

:16:13.:16:17.

than passing pilots could inspect their handiwork. We looked down and

:16:17.:16:25.

waved. They looked up and waved back. Where do you live? Roy Jenkins

:16:25.:16:30.

was canvassing of the Dumbarton Road. The press had been complaining

:16:30.:16:34.

for days that they had not been able to watch him doing it, but when it

:16:34.:16:40.

came, it was worth waiting for. is difficult being separated. How

:16:41.:16:47.

are you? With great courtesy, he gave the voters the benefit of his

:16:47.:16:55.

advice. Roy Jenkins is moving along. But he was accompanied by Bill

:16:55.:16:59.

Rogers, doing his loudspeaker act, and who positioned himself as to

:16:59.:17:04.

make it unlikely that anybody could hear a word that Roy Jenkins said.

:17:05.:17:10.

The whole of the campaign was filled to the last day with loudspeakers,

:17:10.:17:15.

music and cavalcades of canvases, harassing an electorate who were

:17:15.:17:25.
:17:25.:17:47.

traditionally very cynical about all # Some folks work for Labour.

:17:47.:17:57.
:17:57.:18:02.

# Some follow the Tory cloth. # In Westminster I will be.

:18:02.:18:09.

# I'll leave behind my brains and mind.

:18:09.:18:15.

# And try for an MBE. Campaigning has changed a bit since

:18:15.:18:22.

then! You would be hard pushed to find haggis for 18p a pound! As

:18:23.:18:29.

Vincent Hanna said, no gimmick left untried. That is still a feature of

:18:29.:18:37.

by-elections. To remind you, this is a special from Newsnight Scotland,

:18:37.:18:41.

for the Aberdeen Donside by-election. The SNP seeming

:18:41.:18:47.

confident about their prospects of retaining the seat, with Mark

:18:47.:18:52.

McDonald, just to the right of the screen, hoping to be elected as the

:18:52.:18:57.

new MSP for Aberdeen Donside. Sometime between now and 2am, we

:18:57.:19:05.

hope, we think, we will keep you across developments. Let's continue

:19:05.:19:09.

the trip down memory lane. You have confessed already, Brian, that you

:19:09.:19:18.

were there. I was the young face in the background. Gerry Malone later

:19:18.:19:25.

became an MP for Aberdeen South. I caught a glimpse in that car park

:19:25.:19:29.

stunt of a very active conservative but later and even more active

:19:29.:19:33.

nationalist, he left the Tories over the steel industry. It looked like

:19:33.:19:43.

him. I recall Roy Jenkins then, he was offered a glass of wine in the

:19:43.:19:48.

elegant constituency rooms, and he said, a courageous vintage! I

:19:48.:19:55.

thought that was very Roy Jenkins! Vincent Hanna, I did a piece at a

:19:55.:19:59.

party conference, there was a search to get some jokes into Tony Blair's

:19:59.:20:09.
:20:09.:20:09.

speech, and I asked Vincent Hanna, and Neil Callan -- Neil Kinnock had

:20:09.:20:17.

talked about winning the last time, and it went, knock knock, Neal who?

:20:17.:20:26.

That is politics! The Labour Party does not field Marxists!

:20:26.:20:34.

knowingly! It was Helen Liddell, she is now in the House of Lords. I was

:20:35.:20:40.

six years old in 1982, what about you? I was born in 1981.Just a

:20:40.:20:50.
:20:50.:20:51.

baby! What about you? I was 19. Do you remember it? Yes, I was a lowly

:20:51.:21:00.

party worker, but not for the SNP. I was a member of the Labour Party. I

:21:00.:21:04.

was a supporter of the Labour Party, I helped out, and I subsequently saw

:21:04.:21:12.

the light. I joined the SNP left and ten years later. I left the Labour

:21:12.:21:17.

Party in the late 80s and join the SNP in 1990. I had always been a

:21:17.:21:25.

supporter of devolution and devolution -- and independents. It

:21:25.:21:30.

was almost inevitable that you got your party card with your 16th

:21:30.:21:35.

birthday card, and that is what happened to me, but when I grew up a

:21:35.:21:43.

bit, I decided it was not the party I wanted to support. It is the idea

:21:43.:21:49.

of party workers, you heard it in the song, we have got to shout to

:21:49.:21:53.

the party activists, they have done the hard graft, many of them were up

:21:53.:21:58.

at the crack of dawn, they are watching the programme tonight, with

:21:58.:22:04.

a suntan and a weary feeling in their legs. A lot of ordinary people

:22:04.:22:11.

get up to play their part, and that is very healthy. David, what would

:22:11.:22:17.

you say the big changes and similarities are over the 30 year

:22:17.:22:23.

period in the way we do politics and how by-elections of Fort? There is a

:22:23.:22:29.

lot more targeting of voters in elections now. In a by-election like

:22:29.:22:34.

that, the parties knocked all the doors, whether people were likely to

:22:34.:22:40.

be supported -- supportive or not, but now, work is done behind the

:22:40.:22:46.

scenes. Today, you would see the parties focusing on knocking up

:22:46.:22:56.
:22:56.:22:57.

their own supporters, pulling them out.

:22:57.:23:03.

I have done two council elections in Edinburgh, but going back to 1982. I

:23:03.:23:08.

was 16. I was not involved in politics. It was only at university

:23:08.:23:13.

later, tla went around all of the university clubs. To Labour, to

:23:13.:23:20.

liberal, to the SDP where, there were four of us and a dog. The SDP I

:23:20.:23:25.

felt most at home with it was an exciting time. Breaking the mould of

:23:25.:23:29.

British politics. We actually believed it would happen. It has

:23:29.:23:34.

taken longer to achieve but I think we are managing it now.

:23:34.:23:38.

Thank you very much. Lets cross to the count. Steve Godden is there.

:23:38.:23:43.

What is happening, Steven, are we getting a result sometime soon? It

:23:43.:23:48.

is starting to feel like we are moving towards a conclusion. The

:23:48.:23:52.

party agents, the election agents were called into the corner a couple

:23:52.:23:56.

of minutes ago for a final adjudication. So it feels like we

:23:56.:24:01.

are moving to a conclusion. In the middle of the room it is not

:24:01.:24:05.

scientific nor official but in the middle of the group of tables here,

:24:05.:24:08.

the votes are laid out. The votes for each candidate. On the

:24:09.:24:13.

right-handside are the votes for Mark McDonald there. Are six rows of

:24:13.:24:17.

vouts for Mark McDonald, the SNP candidate. Next are rows of votes

:24:17.:24:22.

for Willie Young, the Labour candidate. Four rows there. Next

:24:22.:24:26.

down, the Liberal Democrats candidate, Christine Jardine, one

:24:26.:24:30.

row there. Next to her the row of votes for the Conservative candidate

:24:30.:24:35.

and fifth are the votes for UKIP. So it is not official it is not

:24:35.:24:40.

confirmation, we are waiting for the declaration but it gives an

:24:40.:24:43.

indication and backs up the way that people have been speaking about how

:24:43.:24:48.

the contest is turning out. Thank you very much.

:24:49.:24:55.

I heard Brian Taylor say if that was the very fiction stage, five minutes

:24:55.:25:00.

do you think? I think so. It should be five minutes to then.

:25:00.:25:05.

That is what it normally is. So, let's have a look at the results

:25:06.:25:10.

from last time so we are aware of what we are comparing with. We will

:25:10.:25:15.

do that in a moment or two. Are you starting to get excited, Professor

:25:15.:25:20.

John Curtice? It could be a new fact for your book? Yes! If you asked me

:25:20.:25:27.

at the beginning, thank goodness you did not but if indeed what we heard

:25:27.:25:33.

earlier, it was something like 40% SNP, 30% Labour, that is what I

:25:33.:25:39.

would have put the money on it is confirmation of what we learned in

:25:39.:25:43.

the television 12 months ago, but it is exciting in the sense it is an

:25:43.:25:47.

indication that this remarkably popular SNP government a government

:25:48.:25:52.

that is popular for having been in power for six years, is, however,

:25:52.:25:56.

beginning to find the tied a little more difficult to withstand than

:25:56.:26:01.

perhaps was the case a few years ago. Certainly it is a reminder to

:26:01.:26:06.

us, in context of the whole independence debate, not to assume,

:26:06.:26:12.

even if the SNP remain pop lar, that they will do well in 2016, whether

:26:12.:26:16.

or not we are voting as an independent country or as part of

:26:17.:26:21.

the European Union to get an overall majority. A lot assumptions are

:26:21.:26:26.

about what would happen if we are an independent Scotland it depends on

:26:26.:26:31.

what the SNP do but it may be invalid. It may not be the SNP

:26:31.:26:34.

running in Scotland, even if we were to vote for it.

:26:34.:26:39.

I should say let's take a look at the results from the last time of

:26:40.:26:45.

the Scottish general election in 2011. There it is, the SNP holding

:26:45.:26:55.
:26:55.:26:56.

the seat. Brian Adam, the return with 14,790 votes. The Labour

:26:56.:27:03.

candidate with 7,615. Ross Thomson, the candidate for them this time

:27:03.:27:13.
:27:13.:27:14.

around, the Conservatives. He got 2,166. The Liberal Democrats, 1606

:27:14.:27:21.

and the others sharing 530 votes between them. There are many more

:27:21.:27:24.

candidates in the by-election than there were the last time. That could

:27:24.:27:31.

change a little. The majority for the SNP in 2011. The turn out on

:27:31.:27:37.

that occasion was 47.3%. That is the result the last time. That is what

:27:37.:27:41.

we are comparing against, I think that I am right to say? If the

:27:42.:27:49.

Labour Party have indeed got about 30%. They are in truth only up about

:27:49.:27:55.

1 to %, 2% than in 2011. Ir think we will be left the questions, whatever

:27:55.:27:59.

the difficulties are facing the SNP government, I think that the Labour

:27:59.:28:03.

Party are left with the question, at what point is the Scottish Labour

:28:03.:28:07.

Party to come up with a message that means it begins to reengage with the

:28:08.:28:12.

Scottish electorate as far as the Holyrood elections are concerned?

:28:12.:28:16.

There is still a large question mark about the ability of the Labour

:28:16.:28:21.

Party in Scotland to recover north of the border between now and 2016.

:28:21.:28:25.

What is the answer to the professor's question, Kezia Dugdale?

:28:25.:28:29.

That is fair commentary. We understand the challenge. We were

:28:29.:28:34.

outed in 2011. We understand what to do for 2016.

:28:34.:28:37.

But compare the position of the party in Scotland with the position

:28:37.:28:40.

of the party at Westminster two years after suffering a serious

:28:40.:28:46.

defeat in 2010. The Labour Party south of the border recovered

:28:46.:28:49.

quickly then, you don't show signs of recovering on anything like the

:28:49.:28:53.

same speed. We are working on transformational

:28:53.:29:00.

change as to how we do everything from HQ structures to the message on

:29:00.:29:06.

devolution to the policy going forward. 2016 is a long way. Joanne

:29:06.:29:10.

Lamont is beating Alex Salmond week in, week out. We need more than that

:29:10.:29:16.

to offer to the electorate, though, we are working on that. By 2016 we

:29:16.:29:20.

will have a positive, aggressive message to take to the electorate,

:29:20.:29:26.

to move the SNP out of office. And feen if you were able to turn

:29:26.:29:29.

around the polls and win independent, it may be up to Labour

:29:29.:29:33.

to decide what kind of country we become? Of course. The people of

:29:33.:29:37.

Scotland get to choose. That is the point about independence. They will

:29:37.:29:42.

get the Government that they want in 2016. That government will be, I

:29:42.:29:46.

hope it will be an SNP one but it is up to the people to decide. That is

:29:46.:29:50.

important a point. Some people mix up the things about effectively,

:29:50.:29:56.

they don't like this SNP policy, or this SNP individual, therefore they

:29:56.:29:59.

are against independence. Independence is not about the SNP

:29:59.:30:02.

but about the people of Scotland getting to choose their future. This

:30:02.:30:06.

is a different question as to whether or not the SNP wins the 2016

:30:07.:30:10.

election. In that light, is the Labour Party

:30:10.:30:14.

giving thought to what the policies positions would be if Scotland did

:30:14.:30:19.

become an independent country? don't see our politics from a

:30:19.:30:23.

starting point around the constitution that is why Joanne

:30:23.:30:27.

Lamont talks about a purpose. The values that we have as a country,

:30:27.:30:33.

how we want to see them delivered. She started had an honest debate

:30:33.:30:37.

about what to expect from Government, local government,

:30:37.:30:42.

national government. We are having an honest debate. We will have an

:30:42.:30:46.

offer on devolution and a policy platform ready for the moments that

:30:47.:30:52.

we need them. So an independence manifesto up your

:30:52.:30:56.

sleeve in case? What you would do with awful the powers that come with

:30:56.:31:00.

independence? We would have a platform that talks about devolution

:31:00.:31:04.

in the broadest sense. That is about what powers we give the local

:31:04.:31:08.

government, what powers in the Scottish Parliament, what we do with

:31:08.:31:13.

the powers and what we use power for should Scotland be independent.

:31:13.:31:16.

includes the question as to whether or not if you were in a position it

:31:16.:31:21.

run the Scottish government after 2016, it could be left in your hands

:31:21.:31:28.

to deal with the issue of getting an independent into NATO and what stand

:31:28.:31:34.

you take on Trident and the situation at Faslane if you find

:31:34.:31:38.

yourself back in power. That is what the parties have to address with an

:31:38.:31:42.

independent Scotland. At some point the Labour Party will have to tell

:31:42.:31:45.

us as to whether or not it could be more accommodating to a UK

:31:45.:31:51.

government on that issue, than so far we have been led by the SNP that

:31:51.:31:56.

they would be if they were in power in Scotland. There is a duty for all

:31:56.:32:02.

parties to spell out clear what the platforms are. What is your

:32:02.:32:05.

position, the Labour Party's position on nuclear weapons? I don't

:32:05.:32:09.

want to see nuclear weapons on Scottish soil. Is that Joanne

:32:09.:32:17.

Lamont's position? You have to ask Joanne Lamont her view. I am asking

:32:18.:32:22.

you, you are oppose opposed to nuclear weapons in Scotland, to

:32:22.:32:27.

Trident? I want to ensure that this is no longer a tool that the

:32:27.:32:34.

governments can levy with. I am interested, Jim Murphy is keen

:32:34.:32:38.

on nuclear weapons, keen on replacing Trident, the leader in

:32:38.:32:45.

London is keen on replacing Trident. It is fascinating put forward by an

:32:45.:32:51.

SNP politician who has a broad spectrum on other policies. You are

:32:51.:32:55.

right-wing and left-wing policies. That is very much to our credit too,

:32:55.:32:59.

I think. But to be clear, as the issue has

:32:59.:33:04.

been raised it is your position that the nuclear weapons that are on

:33:04.:33:07.

Scottish territory at the moment, that the Trident programme should be

:33:07.:33:13.

removed? It is my view I don't want to see nuclear weapons anywhere in

:33:13.:33:18.

the world. I think that the Scots have a share shared vision.

:33:18.:33:23.

Do you support the renewal of the Trident programme? No. It is a waste

:33:23.:33:26.

of money. Money that could be better spent.

:33:26.:33:32.

Thank you very much. David Mundell we have not heard from you. We

:33:32.:33:36.

obviously know that the UK Government intends to renew Trident,

:33:36.:33:41.

that is your stated position, but I am not clear, despite the fact...

:33:41.:33:45.

Sorry, the Conservative spoigs to renew Trident. The Government

:33:45.:33:52.

position is to hold a review and to make that decision in 2016.

:33:52.:33:58.

Correct. The Conservative position is to renew. David Cameron visited a

:33:58.:34:02.

nuclear submarine and stated that about what was not clear was whether

:34:02.:34:05.

that would be sustainable if Scotland became an independent

:34:06.:34:13.

country? Well the position as Mike points out for the Conservatives is

:34:13.:34:17.

that we would renew Trident. That position is to retain the United

:34:17.:34:23.

Kingdom. If Scotland became an independent country, might that

:34:23.:34:31.

bounce the UK in to abandoning the plan to renew Trident? As I said

:34:31.:34:35.

earlier, all sorts of things will be uncertain if Scotland becomes

:34:35.:34:41.

independent. But the UK, would it be the position

:34:41.:34:46.

of the Conservative Party it renew Trident, fully renew Trident if

:34:46.:34:50.

Scotland became independent? The UK Government, indeed the Conservative

:34:50.:34:53.

Party, are proceeding on the basis of Scotland remaining in the United

:34:54.:35:00.

Kingdom. That is the answer.

:35:00.:35:06.

The Defence Secretary conceded that contingency plans are being made?

:35:06.:35:13.

don't they he conceded that significant contingency.

:35:13.:35:19.

Insignificant? There are not significant contingency plans for

:35:19.:35:22.

Scotland becoming independent. We believe that Scotland will be a

:35:22.:35:25.

party of the United Kingdom, that our policies are based on Scotland

:35:25.:35:30.

becoming a part of the United Kingdom. That it is a part of the

:35:30.:35:33.

United Kingdom, sorry! It is getting very late.

:35:33.:35:39.

It is. Our policy position is predicated on

:35:39.:35:44.

Scotland remaining a part of the United Kingdom. Obviously it is

:35:44.:35:48.

self-evident if Scotland votes to leave the United Kingdom, a whole

:35:48.:35:57.

range of issues will be reassessed. And David does not want to base an

:35:57.:36:00.

argument on the existence of independence, but it is not credible

:36:00.:36:04.

to say within the Ministry of Defence that they are not preparing

:36:04.:36:08.

for the possibility of independence. They are soldiers, of course they

:36:08.:36:14.

are preparing for it. It strikes me if it comes to this, if the opinion

:36:14.:36:18.

polls currently suggest otherwise but if it comes to it, if there is

:36:18.:36:24.

independents, then Trident would be the timetable for it, the timetable

:36:24.:36:28.

for the removal of it would be a bargaining counter for whoever is

:36:28.:36:36.

the head of the Scottish government. The bargain counter would anybody

:36:36.:36:43.

there for a membership with European and NATO. Seeking support in return

:36:43.:36:46.

for being reasonable about the timetable for the withdrawal of

:36:46.:36:49.

Trident. Mike Crockhart where are you

:36:49.:36:59.
:36:59.:37:01.

personally on the Trident issue? position has been multilateral. The

:37:01.:37:08.

maintenance of a minium deterrent. It is not a minimum deterrent. We

:37:08.:37:13.

have managed to get the coalition government to carry out a review.

:37:13.:37:20.

When do we get the results? Very soon. I have no idea what it says,

:37:20.:37:25.

but I hope it identifies something which is cheaper than Trident, which

:37:25.:37:34.

is a massive waste of money. should get rid of Trident and vote

:37:34.:37:39.

yes in 2014, then we would be assured of it. The first Minister

:37:39.:37:43.

has not said what the timetable would be. Some people say it might

:37:43.:37:51.

take a decade. Can you put a time on it? No, it is part of a negotiation

:37:51.:37:59.

settlement. It will be as thick and safe as it is possible to be. That

:37:59.:38:04.

is the sensible approach, we would have to make sure it has got

:38:04.:38:09.

somewhere safe to go. We understand these are dangerous weapons, and it

:38:09.:38:17.

has to be done properly, so we can negotiated in a mature way.

:38:17.:38:25.

become part of a nuclear reliance. All other countries in NATO sign up

:38:25.:38:32.

to the use of nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland would take away

:38:32.:38:36.

Trident but signup to a nuclear alliance, which all of the other

:38:36.:38:42.

member states subscribe to the use of nuclear weapons. On that point,

:38:43.:38:49.

all the other countries signup to NATO's rules, which include the

:38:49.:38:55.

possibility of a first strike nuclear attack. Would an independent

:38:55.:39:02.

Scotland, led by the SNP, signup to that? It is conditional, our

:39:02.:39:05.

membership of NATO would be conditional on the basis we would

:39:05.:39:15.
:39:15.:39:17.

not support nuclear weapons, we would not be part of... You cannot

:39:17.:39:21.

go into NATO on a conditional basis! Other countries do that. They

:39:21.:39:27.

do not have nuclear weapons and they do not allow them to come into the

:39:27.:39:37.

air or those waters. We would be in the same position. Being in the same

:39:37.:39:41.

position as other members is to sign up to NATO's rules, which include

:39:41.:39:47.

the possibility... You can aspire for nuclear disarmament, but you

:39:47.:39:52.

have to agree that NATO reserves the right under half of all of its

:39:52.:39:58.

members to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. NATO is a club of

:39:58.:40:07.

members. That is one of its rules. We would have a voice. It does not

:40:07.:40:15.

operate as an independent body. would have to join on the basis of

:40:15.:40:20.

the other members, you cannot come into a club and say, we are going to

:40:20.:40:28.

have our own special rules. Will you in the event of independents accept

:40:28.:40:32.

the existing terms of NATO membership that all other members

:40:32.:40:38.

are signed up to? We do not support nuclear weapons. You want special

:40:38.:40:44.

conditions of membership? Or the men -- or the terms accepted by other

:40:44.:40:52.

members? Do you accept the existing rules or do you want special

:40:52.:40:57.

arrangements? Neither. There are countries in NATO who do not allow

:40:57.:41:07.
:41:07.:41:12.

NATO nuclear weapons. Do you accept first strike? We do not. Shared

:41:12.:41:16.

defence is a normal, sensible mechanism for all of the European

:41:16.:41:23.

countries in NATO. We will have time later to discuss that and other

:41:23.:41:28.

topics in more detail, unless Stephen has exciting news for us.

:41:28.:41:36.

What is the latest? It looks like it is imminent. In the corner of the

:41:36.:41:40.

whole, the candidates and their agents have been called into one

:41:41.:41:45.

final Hoddle, so I do not think we are far away. I have been sensing a

:41:45.:41:51.

new emotion, of impatience, people 's attention is split between three

:41:51.:42:00.

things, the stage, the ballot papers and the clock on the wall, which

:42:00.:42:03.

reads 149 AM. I am hoping it will not be too much longer before you

:42:03.:42:08.

can come back to us for a declaration. I think the clock might

:42:08.:42:18.

be running fast in Aberdeen! I have got 1:48am. A little bit faster.

:42:18.:42:23.

Aberdeen is forward-looking! I am made and the boy, but on this

:42:23.:42:33.
:42:33.:42:34.

occasion, when you are covering that point where we need to cheer

:42:34.:42:40.

ourselves up with another electoral fact from John Curtice. And his big

:42:40.:42:50.

book of facts. Your second favourite fact! This book has a wonderful

:42:50.:43:00.
:43:00.:43:02.

section on all sorts of trivia. For example... It is all in your head!

:43:02.:43:08.

David Mundell and his colleagues have been worrying about

:43:08.:43:12.

constituency redistribution, and they were desperate to ensure that

:43:12.:43:17.

they had equality of electorates, to improve their chances of winning in

:43:17.:43:20.

2015, but some of his colleagues scuppered House of Lords reform,

:43:20.:43:24.

which gave Mike Crocker the opportunity to scupper the boundary

:43:24.:43:34.

review. A minor piece of comfort to David, things are not quite as bad

:43:34.:43:39.

as they have been in the past, because in 1935, in Rommel third in

:43:39.:43:46.

Essex, 167,000 voters on the register. There is nowhere in

:43:46.:43:53.

England that will be doing that, the Isle of Wight is the worst. Things

:43:53.:43:57.

are not gerrymandered as badly as that. But it will be an important

:43:57.:44:04.

issue in 2015. The Tories might not win because of the boundary issue.

:44:04.:44:12.

As you can see, as John Curtice shared his electoral fact with us,

:44:12.:44:18.

the electoral officer in Aberdeen is preparing to share the result. Let's

:44:18.:44:22.

go live for the Aberdeen Donside declaration. The candidates are

:44:22.:44:32.
:44:32.:44:55.

positioning themselves. Let's hear Good evening, everyone. Thank you

:44:55.:45:03.

for your forbearance and patients. I, constituency returning officer,

:45:03.:45:06.

declared the results of the verification process for the

:45:06.:45:13.

Aberdeen Donside Scottish Parliament constituency. The total electorate

:45:13.:45:23.

was 60,200 and 42. The total votes cast were 23,396. That means the

:45:23.:45:33.
:45:33.:45:37.

turnout was 38.8%. I hereby give notice that the total number of

:45:37.:45:42.

votes polled for each candidate at the election was as follows. Otto

:45:42.:45:52.
:45:52.:45:53.

Ingles, UK Independence Party, 1128. Christine Jardine, Scottish Liberal

:45:53.:46:03.
:46:03.:46:04.

Democrats, 1940. David Donald, Scottish National front, 249. Mark

:46:04.:46:11.

McDonald, Scottish National Party, 9814. Tom Morrow, Scottish Christian

:46:11.:46:21.
:46:21.:46:22.

party, 222. Rhonda rekey, Scottish Green party, 410. Ross Thomson,

:46:22.:46:32.
:46:32.:46:33.

Scottish Conservatives and Unionists, 1791. James Shoal and,

:46:33.:46:39.

Scottish Democratic Alliance, 35. Willie Young, Scottish Labour

:46:39.:46:49.
:46:49.:47:04.

The total valid votes were 23,378. The total number of rejected votes

:47:04.:47:09.

was 18 and the reason for rejection was as follows. Lack of official

:47:09.:47:14.

mark or unique identifying mark, zero. Voting for more than one

:47:14.:47:19.

candidate, four. Writing a mark by which the voter could be identified,

:47:19.:47:25.

one. One mark or void for uncertainty, 13. That brings the

:47:25.:47:33.

total to 18 rejected votes. I hereby declare that the following candidate

:47:33.:47:38.

is duly elected to serve as a member of the Scottish parliament for the

:47:38.:47:42.

Aberdeen Donside constituency. That is Mark McDonald, Scottish National

:47:42.:47:52.
:47:52.:48:24.

and your team, for all of your work to ensure that this by-election ran

:48:24.:48:27.

smoothly? I thank all of the staff at the polling stations and those

:48:27.:48:32.

who have been here tonight. Often, you feel like this is us going

:48:32.:48:36.

through the motions, but genuinely, this would not be possible without

:48:36.:48:41.

your efforts, and we thank you. I speak for all of the candidates when

:48:41.:48:46.

I say so. I thank the police for ensuring an orderly by-election took

:48:46.:48:52.

place. I thank my fellow candidates for a robust by-election campaign. I

:48:52.:48:57.

wish to give special thanks to my campaign team, led by my agent,

:48:57.:49:06.

Kevin Stewart. The many activists who came through to support me in

:49:06.:49:11.

this campaign, and I wish to thank my family, my mother, my wife and my

:49:11.:49:17.

children, who both should be in their beds, but for all of the

:49:17.:49:22.

support they gave me in keeping me sane, or as sane as you can be in a

:49:22.:49:28.

by-election campaign. It shows the people of Aberdeen Donside back the

:49:28.:49:33.

delivery of universal benefits, free personal care and free

:49:33.:49:35.

prescriptions. They back the council tax freeze and reject the Labour

:49:35.:49:45.
:49:45.:49:49.

cuts commission. They back the local schools being kept open and say to

:49:49.:49:59.
:49:59.:49:59.

Labour, hand off, Middleton Park and Branbrae. They back a sensible

:49:59.:50:03.

approach to improving Aberdeen's transport infrastructure and reject

:50:03.:50:11.

Labour's plans to eject people in Middlefield. I want to thank the

:50:11.:50:15.

people of Aberdeen Donside for putting their faith in me. I know

:50:15.:50:20.

that turn out is low, that serves as a lesson to all, that we as

:50:20.:50:23.

politicians and political parties have much to do to inspire people

:50:23.:50:28.

and take stock of that and look at what we can do to ensure that people

:50:28.:50:33.

come out to vote at election times. I have a tough act to follow. I

:50:33.:50:39.

pledge to work hard and earn trust in the way that Brian Adam did. I

:50:39.:50:45.

stood in 2004, I received 51 votes. So I think that this is probably

:50:45.:50:52.

progress. I cannot help but think of Brian at this time. In 1988, Brian

:50:52.:50:57.

Adam was the only SNP councillor in the city of Aberdeen, today we have

:50:57.:51:02.

15. In 2003 he became the first constituency member of Parliament in

:51:02.:51:07.

Aberdeen, against the national swing. Brian was a pine year for the

:51:07.:51:12.

Scottish National Party, a year for the movement. He is deeply missed by

:51:13.:51:22.

all, but I know he would be proud of us today.

:51:22.:51:30.

Brian was not just a friend and colleague but a machinor... The new

:51:30.:51:36.

MSP, Mark McDonald, paying tribute to Brian Adam. His death caused the

:51:36.:51:42.

by-election. SNP holding Aberdeen Donside. Mark McDonald with 9,814

:51:42.:51:49.

votes. Labour's Willie Young in second place with 7,789. Christine

:51:50.:51:55.

Jardine for the Liberal Democrats, moving to third place for her party,

:51:55.:52:01.

1,940. Pushing Ross Thomson, the Conservative candidate, in to fourth

:52:01.:52:09.

place with 1,791 votes and the other parties between them, sharing 2,044,

:52:09.:52:12.

but Professor John Curtice which confirm that UKIP's performance was

:52:12.:52:17.

not enough to hold their deposit as they predicted earlier in the

:52:17.:52:21.

programme. So the SNP holding Aberdeen Donside, the majority over

:52:22.:52:25.

2,000. There is the share of the 2,000. There is the share of the

:52:25.:52:33.

vote. 42% for the SNP, 33.3% for Labour. 8.3 for the Liberal

:52:33.:52:39.

Democrats, 7. 7% for the Conservatives, and 8. 7% tor the

:52:39.:52:42.

others. -- for the others.

:52:42.:52:49.

Now let's have a look at the change. The SNP down 13%. Labour up 5%. The

:52:49.:52:55.

Lib Demes up 2%. No change for the Lib Demes up 2%. No change for the

:52:55.:52:58.

Tories, the others gaining 7%. So in this by-election there has

:52:58.:53:07.

been a swing to Labour from the SNP of 9.1 t 2%.

:53:07.:53:14.

Now let's get reaction to the result. Firstly from Labour's's

:53:14.:53:20.

Kezia Dugdale. There was -- fistly from Labour's Kezia Dugdale, there

:53:20.:53:24.

were about 2,000 votes in it but not close enough.

:53:24.:53:30.

That is a big headway forward. A 9.1% swing from SNP to Labour.

:53:30.:53:37.

Enough to take out many. 0.4%, you would have had Nicola Sturgeon.

:53:37.:53:42.

There was talk of a fight become. You have that in the result. It is a

:53:42.:53:47.

long way to go until 2016 but a great start.

:53:47.:53:53.

A start that has you worried? am delighted for Mark McDonald. He

:53:53.:53:59.

did a great job. I am delighted for him. My thoughts are with Brian

:53:59.:54:04.

Adam's family. We didn't want to be here today, but I am delighted for

:54:04.:54:09.

Mark McDonald. This is six years into an SNP government. We have held

:54:09.:54:12.

the seat comfortably. Professor John Curtice was talking about the

:54:12.:54:20.

comparison with the 2012 results, our vote was 42%. 39% five years

:54:20.:54:29.

ago. Labour was 43% then, p is 33% today. Clearly no way forward for

:54:29.:54:35.

Labour. Theres have been swings before, and Labour has said is a

:54:35.:54:42.

disastrous result but a 9% swing failing to make a impression is

:54:42.:54:50.

disastrous for Labour. They have made no gains ahall. -- at all here.

:54:50.:54:56.

And it was said that this was the endorsement for the principle of

:54:56.:55:00.

universalism and a rejection of benefits, a rejection of Labour's

:55:01.:55:06.

cuts commission? If that is what Mark McDonald wants to read into the

:55:06.:55:10.

result. It suits the SNP's wider political message.

:55:10.:55:14.

You can't get away from the fact that voters in Aberdeen Donside

:55:14.:55:20.

endorsed the SNP. If it was not a vote for universalism, against the

:55:20.:55:26.

cuts, what was it? It was a 9% swing to Labour. That is not endorsement

:55:26.:55:31.

of the SNP government at all. But the SNP have been elected.

:55:32.:55:38.

But we never expected to win. It was a 7,000 majority. The SNP going into

:55:38.:55:45.

it with 55% share election share of the vote that is huge. We can't

:55:45.:55:49.

expect to overturn it. We had a go at it. We have to present a

:55:49.:55:54.

platform. I spoke to Willie Young the oter

:55:54.:56:00.

day, he said he was going to win. Let's bring in Mike Crockhart. Some

:56:00.:56:05.

improvement, pushing the Tories into fourth place but no real sign of a

:56:05.:56:13.

recovery in the Lib Dem fortunes? This was the usual two-party squeeze

:56:13.:56:18.

in a by-election it is difficult to make headway against that.

:56:18.:56:22.

Especially with the resources thrown into it by the two parties. So a

:56:22.:56:27.

move forward is welcomed. We were out on the doorsteps. It was far

:56:27.:56:33.

better than it has been in the last two years. We were there enthusing

:56:33.:56:37.

supporters, signing up members, speaking to people on the doorstep

:56:37.:56:44.

in that local area. This is a step forward. I con congreat -- I

:56:45.:56:49.

congratulate Christine Jardine. And from you, David, you, pushed

:56:49.:56:54.

down the rankings into fourth, is that support leaking to UKIP, who

:56:54.:57:00.

did relatively well? Our vote stayed the same. I think that Ross Thomson

:57:00.:57:04.

did a good job. I am positive. I think that people like Ross Thomson

:57:04.:57:08.

are the future of the Conservative Party. As Mike says when people

:57:08.:57:13.

perceive there is a two-horse race, they opt for one of those parties,

:57:13.:57:17.

but I think that holding our vote, fighting a positive campaign, I

:57:17.:57:20.

think that is a positive message to take forward from this by-election.

:57:20.:57:24.

Thank you very much. We will get more analysis from Brian

:57:24.:57:31.

and John in a moment, but now let's cross to Aberdeen, to Donside, to

:57:31.:57:36.

the new MSM for Aberdeen Donside. Firstly, congratulations to you,

:57:36.:57:40.

Mark McDonald. Were there times when you started to bite your nails a

:57:40.:57:46.

little? It was closer than some are predicting? Well the important thing

:57:46.:57:51.

was that we were focussed on holding the seat. We have healed the seat.

:57:51.:57:56.

We are satisfied we have won the by-election. Now we build ogen

:57:56.:57:59.

legacy of Brian Adam and work hard for the communities of Aberdeen

:57:59.:58:04.

Donside that is what I have pledged to do as the new MSP.

:58:05.:58:10.

Obviously you have won it is an endorsement but Labour have a claim

:58:10.:58:16.

to be making progress, eating at the? SNP's majority. As Kezia

:58:16.:58:20.

Dugdale pointed out, swings like this would take out some of your

:58:20.:58:25.

Cabinet ministers in a general election? Well, by-elections, glen,

:58:25.:58:31.

as you know, they are notoriously difficult issues on which to predict

:58:31.:58:35.

wider swings. We have seen that in many by-elections in the past.

:58:35.:58:40.

Swings that happen and by-elections don't necessarily follow through to

:58:40.:58:44.

a general election. There is a strong focus on a constituency for a

:58:44.:58:49.

long period of time. What what we saw here were the opposition parties

:58:49.:58:54.

throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the campaign. I am

:58:54.:58:59.

delighted to have held the seat. Now it is my job to build on the trust

:58:59.:59:07.

that has been put in me and to help build the party for the future. That

:59:07.:59:12.

is what Brian Adam has done. Labour described you as a "yes" man

:59:12.:59:17.

for Alex Salmond. Is there anything to say to him now that involves the

:59:17.:59:22.

word "no"? Well, Labour have called me all sorts of things during the

:59:22.:59:27.

campaign. They called me a boy trying to do a man's job. They have

:59:27.:59:32.

called me a "yes" man, saying I have not had a proper job in my life.

:59:32.:59:39.

They want to engage in name kaling -- name calling, that is fine by me,

:59:39.:59:45.

but the idea that somehow you must be disloyal in order to ab abgood

:59:46.:59:51.

questions MP, I mean Brian Adam was the Chief Whip of the party.

:59:51.:59:56.

Responsible that the party members voted the right way. He was a strong

:59:56.:00:01.

voice for Aberdeen Donside. He knew how to fight their corner. I learned

:00:01.:00:05.

from Brian Adam. I don't need lessons from the Labour Party in

:00:05.:00:08.

representing the questions. I learned from Brian Adam, that is

:00:08.:00:11.

what I will be putting into practise.

:00:11.:00:18.

Things have moved quickly for you in your political life. Elected to a

:00:18.:00:28.

young councillor. Do you wish you may have had a -- aanother life

:00:28.:00:32.

before becoming a politician? happy with what I have done. I have

:00:32.:00:38.

been a long-time representing my communities. I grew up in the area,

:00:38.:00:42.

I represented that, I feel there is no greater honour in politics than

:00:42.:00:47.

to represent the area that you live in. That is what I will be doing now

:00:47.:00:51.

for Aberdeen Donside. What do you say to people that

:00:51.:00:55.

actually we need more politicians, more in Parliament who have actually

:00:55.:01:00.

had a career in some other areas of life, who have done another job, who

:01:00.:01:05.

can bring that experience into Parliament? I think that life

:01:05.:01:09.

experiences are about more than what you do for a job. That is why they

:01:09.:01:13.

call it life experience, not work experience. I am raising a disabled

:01:13.:01:18.

child. I have many experiences from that, that will allow me to

:01:18.:01:24.

empathise with people, relate to them and work hard on issues for

:01:24.:01:29.

instance my campaign on autism. Working with people with autism,

:01:29.:01:33.

ensuring that they get the support that we want to see.

:01:33.:01:42.

These are ish us that concern you, about in terms of delivering for

:01:42.:01:48.

Donside Donsiden -- Aberdeen Donside, what are you going to do?

:01:48.:01:53.

am going to have a meeting about the bonkers proposals to close the local

:01:53.:02:00.

schools. There have been no words back on that parents have been left

:02:00.:02:04.

with months of anxiety. It is time to call that to a halt. That is one

:02:04.:02:13.

of the first things that I will do. Mark McDonald, the MSP for SNP, once

:02:13.:02:17.

again, congratulations on your win. Thank you very much.

:02:17.:02:22.

Let's speak to Brian Taylor and Professor John Curtice, you have

:02:22.:02:26.

been chewing over the numbers, anything you spotted that we have

:02:26.:02:34.

not discussed? Clearly the people should be congreat lated on the

:02:34.:02:41.

victory. Now the shares. The share, the decline of the share for the

:02:41.:02:47.

Labour Party, comparing it with the declines in 2009 it is on the high

:02:47.:02:53.

side. One could argue it is because of this vote. On the other hand Mark

:02:53.:02:56.

McDonald is not a new kid on the block. He has been representing the

:02:56.:03:02.

area for a while. So he was a strong candidate, but saying this in the

:03:02.:03:07.

sense to remind us, how the ballot in 2014 is a different contest from

:03:07.:03:12.

a Scottish Parliament election, if you put together the votes cast for

:03:12.:03:17.

candidates who were in favour of independence, if I have all of the

:03:17.:03:24.

candidates right, it is 44%. There is a clear reminder that yes the SNP

:03:24.:03:28.

can win elections, getting a majority in Parliament on less than

:03:28.:03:33.

50% of the vote, but they cannot win a referendum without 50% of the

:03:33.:03:37.

vote. There is no evidence of that in the by-election. Even if you read

:03:37.:03:44.

it in a more fasile way, that there is evidence of the "yes" side being

:03:44.:03:46.

able to win in this particular part of Scotland.

:03:46.:03:50.

You were asking Mark McDonald about what he has done, one thing he has

:03:50.:03:56.

done is that he was a stand-up comedian. Most of the other

:03:56.:04:01.

politicians are just unintentional gifted amateurs, he does it for

:04:01.:04:07.

real. On this occasion, you would say, looking at the results that

:04:07.:04:15.

Joey Harper's boy has won over Alec McLeish's lad, but learning on the

:04:15.:04:24.

night and perhaps making progress. Labour are allowed to the -- to

:04:24.:04:30.

point to the swing of 9%, but the drop is quite substantial. The point

:04:30.:04:35.

that Kezia Dugdale is making about translating this into general

:04:35.:04:43.

elections in other questions, is, as I am sure she knows, that the swing

:04:43.:04:47.

does not translate into a general election situation, this is is a

:04:47.:04:50.

by-election situation. The Liberal Democrats, having held off the

:04:50.:04:54.

difficult situation that they are facing across the UK, reverting to

:04:55.:05:00.

third place over the Conservatives, the Conservatives are slightly down.

:05:00.:05:07.

It is down about 0.4% on a previous vote, but perhaps the Tories will

:05:07.:05:11.

take comfort from having held off the challenge of UKIP.

:05:11.:05:18.

And to confirm UKIP did not hold their deposit? That 478% of the

:05:18.:05:24.

votes. So they failed. Having managed to do so badly in

:05:24.:05:29.

2011, it was difficult for the vote to go down, but to put it into

:05:29.:05:34.

perspective, the vote of 8% is half the level that it was in 2007 in

:05:34.:05:38.

this questions. There is still a long way to go, Mike, before you

:05:38.:05:42.

have crawled back up to the respectable position in Scottish

:05:42.:05:50.

politics. Of course, we now have -- are in the position where we are

:05:50.:05:53.

waiting for the revival of the Conservative Party in Scotland. It

:05:53.:05:58.

is long awaited, but it is still show nothing evidence of returning

:05:58.:06:03.

there. That is another miserable result for the Conservative Party in

:06:03.:06:07.

Scotland. Faced with that question, how to get yourselves back into the

:06:08.:06:13.

serious game north of the border. Let's catch a question with Steve

:06:13.:06:23.

Godden. Who is with you. You said that you could win this, you have

:06:23.:06:29.

not, what they did difference? put up a positive campaign, we are

:06:29.:06:35.

disappointed, but the vote has gone up substantially, which is good, the

:06:35.:06:38.

SNP vote has gone down substantially, so we are getting

:06:38.:06:45.

closer, which is positive. What are you taking from this? Great

:06:45.:06:47.

satisfaction, because we have increased our share of the vote

:06:48.:06:53.

substantially. How much of this was about your record at council level

:06:53.:06:58.

and some of the decisions that have been unpopular? We have fought a

:06:58.:07:03.

positive campaign, we spoke about issues that were for the people of

:07:03.:07:09.

Aberdeen Donside, the SM people had no control over those issues, such

:07:09.:07:14.

as school closures and council tax, because that is in the gift of the

:07:14.:07:20.

local authority. We have spoken about getting fairer funding for the

:07:20.:07:24.

city, some think we need to progress. What about independence

:07:24.:07:29.

and the referendum? How did that play for you? A lot of people

:07:29.:07:38.

speaking to us about it. Mark McDonald said not so long ago that

:07:39.:07:42.

if the vote was to be taken yesterday, the people of Aberdeen

:07:42.:07:50.

Donside would reject independence. People said to us they did not want

:07:50.:07:53.

independence. People who voted SNP still do not wanted. But we will

:07:53.:07:59.

look at that next year. You said it was a strong issue for you. Why

:07:59.:08:04.

could you not make more of it? You allowed the SNP to fight this

:08:04.:08:12.

election on their terms. Both sides fought what they thought was

:08:12.:08:14.

important. We fought on issues that the Scottish parliament can

:08:14.:08:19.

determine its position on, infrastructure. We spoke about

:08:19.:08:27.

fairer funding. The SNP fought a negative campaign based on local

:08:27.:08:31.

issues, things they have got no locus on. We are positive, happy, I

:08:32.:08:37.

am delighted with the way things have happened, I thought a positive

:08:37.:08:44.

campaign. That is it from Aberdeen tonight, just to sum up, the SNP

:08:44.:08:49.

have won the seat with a reduced majority from the last time, 2000

:08:49.:08:56.

down, from 7000. The Labour Party in second place, Liberal Democrats in

:08:56.:08:59.

third place, they are speaking positively, and the Conservatives in

:08:59.:09:05.

fourth place. It has been a long night, impatience towards the end,

:09:05.:09:09.

but we now know where we stand, and the arguments will continue. From

:09:09.:09:18.

Aberdeen, it is good night. Thank you, Stephen. A final word

:09:18.:09:27.

from all on our panel in Glasgow. Final thoughts, Mike? The one thing

:09:27.:09:34.

I would like to pick up on, John Curtice talked about 44% support, if

:09:34.:09:41.

you aggregate the candidates, supporting independence. It is an

:09:41.:09:47.

important point, because that is the support of the candidates, not

:09:47.:09:54.

support for independence. A lot of people voted for parties and

:09:54.:09:56.

candidates supporting independence, but they do not support it

:09:56.:10:04.

themselves. Having got this out of the way, we can get the SNP talking

:10:04.:10:07.

about independence again, because the more we get that, the less

:10:07.:10:13.

support there is for it, so I look forward to that. A good night for

:10:13.:10:17.

the Labour Party, three by-elections in Scotland today, 5% up in

:10:17.:10:23.

Aberdeen, we won in Glenrothes, the local government, and one in

:10:23.:10:28.

Edinburgh, and we will have a Labour gain in Edinburgh. A good couple of

:10:28.:10:36.

days. It is a poor night for the Labour Party. Six years into an SNP

:10:36.:10:39.

government, you hear the other parties say, governments never win

:10:39.:10:46.

by-elections in mid-term, but we have proven that is not the case. We

:10:46.:10:49.

surveyed 19,000 people on the independence question in Aberdeen

:10:49.:10:59.
:10:59.:11:01.

Donside, 34% yes, 29% no, 37% don't know. It was clear that there is

:11:01.:11:04.

support for independence, over 19,000 people. I take heart from

:11:04.:11:11.

that. We can convince the rest of people. I do not think this will

:11:11.:11:16.

have any effect on the outcome of the referendum. It is clear that

:11:16.:11:21.

people are prepared to vote SNP in Scottish Parliament elections and

:11:21.:11:25.

council elections when they do not support independence. We saw in the

:11:25.:11:31.

debate we had earlier in the hall in Aberdeen, this election was fought

:11:31.:11:35.

on local issues in that constituency. From an outside point

:11:36.:11:39.

of view, photos were deciding in a negative way who was more culpable

:11:39.:11:45.

for issues around the roundabout, so to speak, whether it was Labour or

:11:45.:11:52.

the SNP, and they have decided it was the Labour council. We have gone

:11:52.:11:59.

full circle! Back to the roundabout again! Thank you for staying with

:11:59.:12:08.

us. Last words from John Curtice. There is a reminder to political

:12:08.:12:14.

parties, even if the SNP are currently majoring on what they

:12:14.:12:20.

think is an unpopular policy stance, independence, they can still

:12:20.:12:27.

do well in elections. We should not discount the possibility that

:12:27.:12:32.

Scotland might folk know in 2014, but we should not presume that the

:12:32.:12:35.

SNP will lose the position of being the largest hearty in the Scottish

:12:36.:12:42.

Parliament in 2016. These issues are divorced to some degree, and we are

:12:42.:12:48.

looking at a party that has embedded itself as Scotland's party, and

:12:48.:12:52.

dislodging it will not be that easy, even if it does end up losing the

:12:53.:13:01.

referendum. I take three things from the night. I agree, I do not think

:13:01.:13:07.

there is a lead through from this to September 2014, of course this was a

:13:07.:13:09.

by-election for the Scottish Parliamentary constituency which was

:13:09.:13:19.
:13:19.:13:21.

fought on local issues. They are important. Secondly, it tells us

:13:21.:13:25.

that the two parties who will be fighting most obviously to be in

:13:25.:13:30.

command of the Scottish Parliament when those elections come round our

:13:30.:13:35.

labour and the SNP, they still be predominant parties. But the biggest

:13:35.:13:41.

thing it tells us, thank you to those viewers who stuck with us! A

:13:41.:13:48.

collective round of applause! Devotion above and beyond! And Mark

:13:48.:13:58.

McDonald is the winner. The only thing that disappoints me, you had

:13:58.:14:07.

promised to sing if it got to that stage! If it got to 3am! It would

:14:07.:14:14.

have to be the Northern lights! is for a future programme! Thank you

:14:14.:14:18.

to you for staying up until this late hour to watch our coverage of

:14:18.:14:25.

the Aberdeen Donside by-election. It has been the SNP's night. Mark

:14:25.:14:30.

McDonald elected as the MSP, holding the constituency for the SNP. The

:14:30.:14:37.

Labour Party making up some ground, but not quite enough. Alex Salmond

:14:37.:14:39.

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