02/07/2013 Newsnight Scotland


02/07/2013

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British government produces another screed saying independence for

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Scotland would have also some risks, this time about business and your

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mobile phone. But are they overplaying their hand, will be

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public not tire of what yes supporters are dubbing Project Fear?

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Good evening. Vince Cable came to Scotland this morning to launch a

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paper to so how Scottish business and if it's from being in the UK.

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Leaks of some of the details over the weekend were described as silly,

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even by some of his own side and as balderdash by some of the yes

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campaign. Could negative campaigning Coming soon... To a screen near you.

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A new psychological thriller. future. In an independent

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Scotland... No one will hear you scream. Of course, this isn't

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actually a proper film but the title is still very much rooted in

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reality. Independence campaigners have started using the phrase

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Project Fear. But are some of the storyline is a

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bit far-fetched? The UK government suggested Scottish independence

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would leave mobile phone users facing higher bills raising the

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possibility of Scottish collars being hit by roaming fees when they

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visit England but EU rules mean roaming charges will actually fall

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English! Delivering the latest warning at this clothing factory in

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Glasgow, UK Business Secretary Vince Cable said independence could

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balance an the rest of the country but at the same time defended his

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government of against charges of negativity arguing voters had to be

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aware of the risks. I think it is perfectly sensible to have a

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grown-up debate which is not emotional and sets out the benefits.

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And the costs. It is not sensible to believe you can float into an

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independent country and not have consequences. Of course there are

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consequences and it is correct we spell out some of those problems and

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uncertainties but we must do it in a sensible, grown-up way and be

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positive. What I was saying this morning is that we have to be

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positive about Scotland's role in the British single market. Another

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major storyline in this debate has been defence. Will an independent

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Scotland be able to get rid of nuclear weapons, could afford its

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own military forces and so on? Today, Scottish minister Keith Brown

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at outlined visions at the Scottish defence committee. How many frigates

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will you have, submarines? You say you have no idea at all. We can go

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over the transcript but he said repeatedly that you did not have

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figures for each of the types. Chairman, if I could say it would be

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useful, if you check the record you will find things that I have been

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accused of. My own personal dealings with the Scottish government and its

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elected members, I have to say, have generated more heat than light in

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the area of trying to understand what it is that the Scottish

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government thinks its defence posture would be. As the bickering

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continues, one Nationalist MSP used her newspaper column to call for an

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end to the scare stories. Project Fear is the title that is very well

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named, it sounds like it is on repeat and the more you repeat them,

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the more you repeat them, Vasiliev a sound and particular in this week,

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about telecoms, that story was an absolute disaster. But as the

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prounion campaign -- is the prounion campaign making a valid point? Is it

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unbecoming of the independence campaign to adopt phrases like

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Project Fear? The audience will vote with its feet.

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We are joined by Professor John Curtice Strathclyde University.

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Before we get onto some of this stuff, where are we in terms of

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polling? We have heard about a dozen or so opinion polls asking how

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people will vote in response to the question that will appear on the

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ballot paper. On average, they suggest that once you take out the

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people who don't know and won't say, we are looking at a yes vote at

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around 30% on average. -- 39%. We do say that the opinion polls do not

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always agree with each other. One is consistently coming in with a vote

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of around 44% saying yes that means we have a still fairly substantial

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contest. Everybody else on average are running at about 37 which

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suggest the yes side have a substantial job to do. Everybody

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agrees it is behind that there is disagreement about how far yes is

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behind and so how far across the winning post is across the horizon.

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-- are far across the horizon the winning post is. If you look up the

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average of the opinion polls this year and compare it with last year,

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virtually nothing has changed. In a sense, the good news for the yes

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side is that all the negative campaigning as they see it by the no

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side has frankly not had any impact on public opinion but the bad news

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is that you are behind and you are just as far behind as you were 12

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months ago and at some point between now and a little more than 12 months

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time, you need to make progress. What about all this stuff? Don't be

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surprised that negative campaigning takes place, it is happening by both

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sides. We have got Project Fear undoubtedly on the no side but who

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also have something called Project Distaste on the yes campaign. Things

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like the spending cuts, the bedroom tax, and they then say that that is

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a reason to vote for independence but this means there is negative

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campaigning on both sides. At what the no side think they can feed into

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is not so much fear but uncertainty and that was one of the words that

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Vince Cable used in that clip you have shown. They are trying to say

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to people, actually, there's a lot of uncertainty about what

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independence would bring and therefore, do you want to take the

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risk? The evidence is that around three in five people in Scotland

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think they are not terribly sure what independence means and they are

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less likely to vote for independence. The mobile phone thing

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was a bit silly, wasn't it? Negative campaigning comes with a risk and

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that is that it can rebound on you. Sometimes negative campaigning work

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and sometimes it doesn't. Clearly to work, it needs to have credibility.

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There is no doubt that over the weekend, the arguments which in the

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report published today about mobile phones were oversold and if you ever

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sell it, it lacks credibility. Another similar example, negative

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campaigning that doesn't work which is the Tory campaign before the

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general election in 1979 -- 1997, saying new Labour had danger. But on

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the other hand if we look at the current coalition attack on the

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Labour Party, blaming them that we are still having to have austerity

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cuts, that is still proving effective, clearing up the mess that

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way because. That for the public still has credibility and therefore

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it works but you need to avoid overselling it and it has to be

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credible and there is no doubt that the no campaign at least made a

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tactical mistake over the mobile phones. I will be joined in a moment

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by Blair Jenkins, Chief Executive of the Yes Scotland campaign that has

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from London I am joined by Ian Murray who is a Labour MP and Shadow

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business Minister representing Treasury paper on the currency and

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the stuff like that. This seems a shoddy effort, compared to that?

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It's a list of things saying, they would have to be separate in a

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separate Scotland, that might cost money, well, yeah, so what? Well,

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Gordon, you are belittling the questions that need to be asked.

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Businesses are telling me every single day of the week they want

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answers to questions which affect their business. Ultimately it

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affects consumers and the cost of doing business in Scotland. What the

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paper states is that Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom are

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linked in terms of operation, in terms of business and the free

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movement of people. It has worked for the last 300 years. What the

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paper is doing is posing more questions that the SNP have to

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answer. It's similar to the questions about whether or not we

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will be in EU, which currency Scotland will use. Whether or not

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people will require Visas. What people will do in terms of their

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pensions and the welfare state. It's clear the questions have to be

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answered. For the Scottish Government to be prosecuting the

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argument for the last 80 years and not have an answer for these basic

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questions is concerning. You would take the point that John Curtice was

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making, you can over play this stuff. That stuff about mobile

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phones made you look silly? Let us be clear, Project Fear is

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terminology that the Yes campaign has given to asking questions. It

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can't surely be scaremongering to ask questions of the Scottish

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Government that are fundamental to the future of Scotland and benefits

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the Scottish people. On. To suggest you would have to pay roam roaming

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charge - the suggestion was that if Scotland were independent would you

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have to pay roaming charges if you used your mobile phone in England

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when the European Union is moving to a situation where roaming charges

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will be abolished across the ech U. That was just silly? There are two

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issues that you raised in the report. The report is more subtle

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than the reports in the newspapers over the weekend have led us to

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believe. That is because the SNP don't want to answer the other big

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questions in this reported and want to concentrate on something that is

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perhaps more subtle that people are making out. There are two things

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that fall from that. The EU Directive hasn't been implemented.

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The second thing is, will Scotland be in the EU? There are big

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questions to answer. It can't be scaremongering to peep posing the

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questions. It depends which Scottish minister answers the questions,

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which we saw in the Defence Select Committee, and it depends what day

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of the week it is to determine what answer you get. It's important to

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pose these questions. General has appeared. To say it's scaremongering

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might convince some people, it will not get you far. It's not getting

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you anywhere at the moment? One of the key points is despite what Ian

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said, Project Fear is not a term dreamt up by the Yes campaign it's

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the Scottish newspaper 10 days ago told us this is a name the No

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campaign use themselves. Privately they call themselves Project Fear.

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Any objective commentator - You can do better than that? That is exactly

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right. Any objective observer of the two campaigns will say "Yes

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Scotland" is running a more positive campaign. The strategy for Better

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Together to date, it may change, the strategy at this point is

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essentially to try to frighten people into voting no next year.

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Will frighten people if you don't come up to detailed answers to

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questions they are asking. There are plenty of areas where you haven't

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done that? There are lots of information and answers to the main

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questions. Both sides would concede there are things that neither side

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can predict with any certainty after the vote next year. Whatever the

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outcome the uncertainty is either way. Which side are you on? Do you

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take the SNP line on the currency or do you agree with Denis? I think

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it's the right thick to do at the point of independence and for years

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after. The point about the currency it's not a deal breaker for anyone

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in the Yes campaign. There are different views on what the long

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term best currency solution for Scotland is. It's one of those areas

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there is an honest disagreement who think independence is the right

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answer. We are honest about the differences between us. What we

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don't get from the other side is any sense of their vision for the future

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of Scotland. We get a tax on SNP, tax on the Yes campaign but no

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vision of what Scotland would be like if we had a No result next

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year? Will we get a Labour vision? Let me pick up on something that

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blair said. He said the currency wasn't an important aspect for the

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Yes campaign. This is nothing to do with the Yes campaign in terms of

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currency. It's to do with Scottish business and Scottish people. It's

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neither here nor there whether it's important to the Yes campaign. It's

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important to the CBI and SCDI, and important to the chambers of

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commerce and the uniones who came out with reports showing the

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difficulties with regards to their currency position. Yes campaign have

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to start giving answers to the country. Labour have got their

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devolution commission paper out to consultation and will bring forward

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proposals in the next few months. Would you like to see? In terms of

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what? In terms of what your proposals? We would like to see a

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settlement in the best interests of the people of Scotland. We would

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like to see devolution continues. We set up the skot Scottish - What

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would you auto like to see? Scotland Act hasn't been implemented yet.

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curious as to what you would like to see? It's not personally what I

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would like to see - It is -With all due respect, no the what I want to

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see, what is in the best interests of the people of Scotland. What do

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you think would be in the best interests of people of Scotland?

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devolution is in the best interests of Scotland that would be my view.

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It's not for me to suggest whether we use the euro or sterling it's not

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for me to suggest a basket of devolution powers not in the best

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interests of Scotland. It's like filling your shopping basket up

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without knowing what you want to eat. We are putting forward a

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positive vision for the future of Scotland on the devolution journey.

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That has to be in the best interests of the Scottish people. It's surely

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not about me. Nobody cares what Ian Murray thinks about what should be

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devolved to Scotland and what shouldn't be devolved. It's about a

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detailed analysis of what is the best for Scotland. I don't think

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what conclusion should be drawn what Ian Murray thinks about these

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issues. We are setting out a clear perspectous that Scotland would have

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a better deamong ratione, fairer society and stronger economy if we

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vote for independence. The story of the UK - the story of the UK for

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mother than 30 years now is the story of the erosion of the ideal of

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equality of opportunity. Next year, people in Scotland - That is a bufrn

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