17/07/2013 Newsnight Scotland

technology. 50 years is a long time in politics and even longer if you

do not like budgets. On Newsnight Scotland tonight. The

sun's up and so is economic growth. There are clear signs that we're

seeing some kind of recovery. So, if there's a feel good factor coming,

how will it shape political strategies for the referendum and

the 2015 general election? And on the eve of the Open, the Royal and

Ancient responds to the row about men-only venues. We have got

politicians posturing, interest groups attacking the Open and

attacking your field. I have made a few notes about this as you can

see! The tournament tees off in just a few hours' time. We look at the

row which has engulfed it and ask if boycotts of such events are

effective or reasonable. Good evening. The sun's been

shining, more people have been out shopping, more people are in

employment, inflation's not as bad as expected, the Scottish economy is

registering real growth. House prices in many areas are creeping

up, the UK economic optimism index is in positive territory for the

first time in three years. So who can possibly be gloomy about the

future? Well, the answer to that may be any politicians who don't think

they're going to reap a reward from all that positive stuff.

Strictly speaking unemployment in Scotland got worse today. One of the

UK figure improved. But the unemployment rate here remains lower

than the UK rate. Economic growth in the first quarter of the year showed

a relatively strong performance. The economy here growing at 1.2%

annually, more than twice the UK rate. Then there are retail sales,

growing by 2.8% in June at close to 2.9% for the UK. The poll measured

economic confidence and today revealed that more people in Britain

are optimistic about the economy rather than pessimistic for the

first time in three years. That is across the whole of written but also

includes Scotland. People in Scotland also feel slightly more

optimistic and I guess it shows that people coming out of appealing that

we are in a slump and starting to feel tentatively more optimistic

about the economic future. Of course it is not all positive. The figures

today also show Scotland has ongoing problems with long-term unemployment

and women's unemployment. A report for the UK office of budget

responsibility says that North Sea oil revenues are in decline and will

continue to decline over 25 years. The key question remains, who gets

the credit and who gets the blame? It is an interesting question.

is not any real clear evidence. Amongst most voters in Scotland it

is pretty unclear as to where the balance of powers lie, who does

what, who is responsible for what. People who find it difficult to

assign either credit or blame for economic performance. What we do

know is that the current SNP government in Scotland is still

pretty popular, still ahead in the polls. When we ask about the

performance of the Scottish government, voters still think it is

doing a good job. Bill Clinton's residential campaign was credited

with coining it into the, as an election winning mantra but nowadays

all parties are aware of its potency.

I'm joined here in the studio by Natalie McGarry, an SNP candidate

for the European Parliament. And by David Whitton, a former Labour MSP.

But let's go first to John McLaren of the Centre for Public Policy of

the Regions, who's in Manchester for us this evening. Just on the

economics, the fact that unemployment is rising here, whereas

it has gone down across the UK, is there anything other than

statistical quirkiness involved in this? I do not think so. The labour

market figures in particular have been up and down across all the

regions including Scotland. Scotland had a big dip in the last year and

is now a big bounce back. Over the year as a whole the position has not

changed relative to the UK that much. So when politicians either

claim, it is all down to them that unemployment falls or someone

else's falls when it rises, you think people would be best served by

just whistling to themselves until they stop doing that? It would be

better to look at the bigger picture which is that growth is still slow

and the UK recovery period has been slower in Scotland than in the UK.

The UK is one of the slowest on the international scene. So it is a

pretty poor picture. Employment is better but a lot of that has to do

with the fact that incomes have been growing slowly if at all. So there's

not a of credit to go round. On the other hand we are seeing some

signs, we have had negativity for so long and we are starting to see

things like unemployment going down across the UK. GDP is growing, they

have revised the figures. Retail sales, you know, not buoyant at

going up a bit. We had some fairly positive business surveys recently.

There is just a sense that we are not exactly going into a room but

perhaps some corner has been turned. Perhaps but some of these surveys

have said similar things in the past couple of years and it has not come

to fruition. The worrying thing is the recovery was supposed to be on

the back of improved trade performance, higher exports and a

boom in investment. Those have not led to the little growth that we

have seen, that has been driven by consumption, both government and

households. Household consumption has come about through the savings

ratio falling and the government one will eventually peter out because

there are more cuts to come. So if it is in recovery it is an odd

shaped recovery and you would want it from the investment and export

side to be more confident that this is going to pan out well. Just

before we speak to the politicians, or would-be politicians, you would

expect that right the way through the referendum campaign next year

and right the way through the general election campaign of the

year after and perhaps even through the Scottish election campaign, the

best you could hope for is things growing a little bit but Noel

returned to the kind of economic growth that we saw in the early

2000. Is that fair? Of growth keeps on even at the sluggish levels we

have seen recently, it will not be until about 2017 that we get back to

the previous week. We will still be below the level that we were at the

beginning of the recession. So the main debate at the minute, and the

referendum debate is pushing that slightly to one side, is how to

restart growth. Some of the issues we are talking about currency union

or whatever, have a relevance but others are quite minor issues.

interested just from each of you, if we do get some economic recovery, no

matter how mild, for the yes campaign, is that a good or a bad

thing? Any recovery is good for the whole of the UK. I mean for you,

your political campaign? It is a good thing. I think your phrasing it

in the sense that I would not want to see the economy recover. Just in

terms of the politics. The obvious problem is that the more the economy

recovers the more going around saying the only way to escape years

of economic decline is to vote for independence, losers and ability.

course there is that argument but economic growth in Scotland in this

quarter is higher than it has been in the rest of the UK. What people

might see is that economic recovery is affecting people at the top of

the food chain, so to speak. I do not know if people at the bottom are

going to see much impact from that. The way that looking forward to the

election of 2015 and the referendum is that the cuts in place, and the

austerity, is still going to be in place by the there are sluggish

signs of economic recovery. A polite way of saying that you hope things

will turn up horribly for people. I'm not saying I want that to

happen. Any economic growth has to be a good thing. I do not think

anyone would suggest you are saying you hate the idea of economic

growth. Politically it does put Labour in a dilemma, there is no

denying that. If it looked as if the Tories... Just in terms of the

independence referendum campaign. There is a problem for Natalie

McGarry does Nick side and for your side, the more you get signs of

economic recovery more people might say, I was not going to vote for

independence when the whole world was suffering but if things are

looking up, I might take a chance on it. I could turn that around and say

there is economic recovery or cause we are part of the UK and part of

the bigger market. But I am suggesting that people might think,

I would just take a chance. I think quite the opposite, but they would

not take a chance that they would be better staying with what they know

and what they have had going for them for the past 300 years.

Scotland has done very well out of the union during that time.

Labour's chances of winning the next election would go down. I do not

know about that. Spin doctors and politicians sit down and analyse

these albums but the latest poll has got Labour 11 points ahead. So

things are going fine. You know that polls especially in England show

that people buy the government argument that things are tough but

we just have to do it. If George Osborne can say, it has been tasked

but things are looking up, people would be more inclined to buy that.

But they also look at who is getting the benefit from the recovery. If

multimillionaires are getting more and people at the bottom end, then

those at the bottom also have a vote and will look carefully at the

economic policies of each party and decide what is best for them.

terms of who might win the next general election, what is of benefit

to your side of the referendum campaign? Some opinion polls have

said that if there is a likelihood Tories will be in power again, then

the appetite for independence rises. That must be terrible for you.

Either way if there is economic recovery, the likelihood is that

they will vote the Tories back in. Because Labour admitted to the same

economic spending as the Tories. Why take the chance to bring in another

government? Is there evidence in the opinion polls but people in Scotland

are more likely to vote for independence if the Tories win the

next election? What would happen if the Tories are voted in again there

is a democratic argument for independence. You have a government

which the Scottish people did not vote in. At least if it was

labouring they could say they have voted for a Labour government. So

there is a democratic argument as well as a policy argument. But for

the Scottish people they know that austerity is going to be there until

at least 2017 and will not change with the Labour Party if they come

back. The Democratic deficit is answered by a thing called the

Scottish Parliament. John McLaren, do you think politics would be

affected by what is likely to happen? Does there need to be a

feel-good factor do you think? Or just a perception by people that

this might have been tough but we are going in the right direction?

There is so much confusion and uncertainty at the moment that that

is not going to change in the period leading up to the referendum. I

think that is a given. What could change things, the office for budget

responsibility report came out today and that is important. The issues in

there about long-term funding for health, in the longer term these

difficult issues will have to be decided on. If more debate around

the referendum was how those are going to be addressed, whether

taxation, or more money going into investment or prevention in early

years, perhaps we could have a more interesting discussion and more

interesting divergences appearing. So, George Osborne deserves some

credit? I don't believe you do it serves any credit. He has turned the

economy round! He isn't turning the economy around. This is not a trend,

to say the economy has turned around is presumptuous. We are lagging

behind the growth of other countries in the EU. We have to leave it

there. Don't go away because you want to talk to you again in a

moment. First of all, at 6:32am, Peter Senior will hit the first

bought in the open tournament. Alex Salmond will not be there to see him

do it. Not because it is ridiculously early. It is a boycott.

He's not going because the course at does not allow women members. It has

a long and venerable history. Stevie Wonder announced he won't perform in

Florida because of the law under which course and was acquitted.

We've been assessing how affective boycotts can be.

The first Minister is a keen golfer but he is not happy about the men

only membership brought at the host's course. Alex Salmond says

he's not boycotting the event but he will not be attending. To have the

message women are not welcome as members, cannot be members, cannot

have rights on the same basis as men, sends out the wrong message

about the future of golf. He's not the only one raising claims of

injustice. Last night, Stevie Wonder announced he wouldn't be playing in

Florida and other states which endorse a controversial law allowing

people to use deadly force if they believe their lives are in danger.

And until your law is abolished in Florida, I will never performed

there again. The term boycott first entered use in 1880 during the

so-called Irish land war. Charles Boycott, the agent of urban and

certainty landlord, found himself ostracised by the local community

wannabe to sit -- dispute with tenants resulted with people

refusing to engage with him. Nelson Mandela, a free man. And a

boycott of South Africa during the apartheid era was seen as a vital

catalyst for change according to the man who chaired Scotland's movement

against the regime. The boycott allowed an ordinary people to be

involved to take an active part in their day-to-day lives by not buying

South African goods, by not watching South African teams who came here,

and demonstrating and picketing. In other words, they could do

something, they felt powerful rather than impotence. That's the thing

about involving a lot of people. It gives them a power which, United,

they can make change. Whatever form it takes, boycotting is seen as

something that can send out a powerful message. Boycotts have come

and gone. This is an ongoing tool that is used by protesters. It is

often, I think, the case that people are accused of injecting politics

into something which is regarded as a political, so if you call for a

boycott of a cultural event, and artistic event, you're somehow seen

as the politicised one. When it is often the case that politics and

power are embedded in the culture. And, actually, it is the boycott

which is highlighting some of the inequalities that are taking place

at that event. If what is happening at Muirfield is boycott, it is one

which golf 's governing body looks set to resist. We've got politicians

posturing, we've got interest groups attacking the R&A, attacking the

open, and Muirfield. As you can see, I've made a few notes about this. To

be honest, our natural reaction is to resist these pressures because we

actually don't think they have substance. But I'd like to stress we

are not so insular as to fail to recognise the potential damage that

campaigns like this can to the open. Morally, what is the difference

between men only and whites only? Goodness me, eroded -- a ridiculous

question. There is a massive difference between anti-Semitism,

racial discrimination, where sections of society are treated

badly indeed, and to compare that with a men's golf club is absurd.

There is no comparison whatsoever. Right, well, that was incredibly

impressive bit of spluttering verve. Do you take it seriously? I think we

should. My golf club has for women's rights. Women's members have the

same rights I've got which makes it better. What did you make of that?

All the signs of over defensiveness? Very over defensive.

They will never solve that until somebody like one of the top players

says, we will not play unless you change the rules. If they keep

turning up, they can carry on like that. If Tiger Woods had said this

week, I'm not playing at Muirfield because of that, can you imagine the

kind of story? What did you make of it? I want to see women at the

forefront of political debate in public life, so, obviously, my

opinion and the opinions of most normal people is that it is

outrageous. Whatever he thinks about the first Minister's motivations

behind it, it is a principled stand and women should be allowed. You

sometimes hear the argument, including from the people who run

these institutions, they say, oh, you know, it's not really

discrimination because we've got a women's club as well. And we've got

a men's club. And everyone's happy with that. Would you take that

seriously? That's nonsense. David is right. They won't take it seriously

until somebody does something. When the golfing institutions or the

golfing body allows events like the open to go to Muirfield, they need

to know that sexism is wrong. If they want to have the boys club, let

them do that. We have women's clubs because there are men's clubs.

a happy note on which to end this discussion. Wright, the front

pages. The SNP accused of madness to base separation case on oil. The

daily Telegraph, we risk war with Syria. The Independent, welcome to

the British open, unless you're a woman. We will be back tomorrow.

will be changes in our weather, but today, more sunshine for Scotland

and Northern Ireland. Further south, perhaps some hotspots for the West.

For Northern Ireland, decent sunny spells in the midtwenties. Similar

figures forecast across southern and eastern Scotland, some persistent

mist and Merck. Just the isolated chance of a shower across eastern

Scotland. Sunny spells from northern England, sunshine across the

Midlands into East Anglia and eastern England. Some of the

temperatures here just a couple of degrees down on the last few days as

we stopped to pick up a bit of an easterly breeze. That will see our

hires more intense further east. -- that will see the hires more intense

further east. For Friday, I think it will be a dry day. Almost right away

across the British Isles. Still plenty of heat around across the

southern half of the UK but, again, temperatures in one or two spots a

degree or two down in recent days. In the North, temperatures go up,

particularly across western Scotland. In Glasgow, we could be