16/04/2014 Newsnight Scotland

trial for a wicked crime with the killer is eluding justice.

Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: The campaign for the women's vote

gathers momentum. It's clear the Yes and No campaigns are working hard to

find the right sweeteners to attract this crucial vote. But are women

really only interested in subsidised childcare and quotas on the boards

of quangos? Also tonight, does support for Home

Rule always rise in times of uncertainty? We'll investigate.

Good evening. After the SNP made clear one of the main selling points

for a Yes vote is a wide- ranging offer on childcare, it didn't take

Labour too long to come up with a wide-ranging counter-offer on behalf

of the No camp. The Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran is now

offering a five-point pledge specifically aimed at women voters.

And all of this in the context of polls which suggest the Yes campaign

is finding it a great deal harder to convince women than men to take a

chance on them. Emma Ailes reports. The race is on to win women's

votes, and childcare is the key. Margaret Curran was the latest

politician to host a photocall at a nursery. She was there to announce

five pledges to women. They are offering more free childcare, with

25 hours a week for three and four-year olds, and 15 for

vulnerable to-year-olds. Incentives to firms to pay at least ?7.65 an

hour. Forcing companies to publish their pay gap in their annual

reports, and a 50% quota for all public boards in Scotland to ensure

equal representation. Women are resisting this idea that we are

somehow a demographic that we have to be ticked off. I think women are

much more interested in hearing what practical things can be done to

advance their interests, and the offer that we have got is about

childcare and low pay, because we think that those are the things that

will make women's lives better. According to the polls, the Yes

campaign has the bigger hill to climb when it comes to wooing women.

They are promising 30 hours a week childcare, increasing the minimum

wage by at least inflation every year, reversing reforms that hit

women the hardest, tackling the pay gap I implementing an equal pay act,

and the public boards to be at least 40% female. At the SNP conference

last week, one of these conferences was put into action when Alex

Salmond made a mid-speech reshuffle. The cabinet is our board as a

country, and women will make up 40% of the members of the Scottish

Cabinet. Leading by example, he said critics accused him of the very

worst type of tokenism. But is it patronising to suggest that the

issues that matter to women are childcare and how many women sit on

boards rather than, say, defence, the economy, energy or the EU, or

will either side's offering make a dent in the polls?

I'm joined now by Kezia Dugdale MSP, who speaks for Labour on childcare

as well as her education brief. She's here tonight for the Women

Together campaign. And by Carol Fox, of Women for Independence, who's a

lawyer specialising in equal pay among other things. Carol Fox, I

presume you would accept that the Yes campaign has a problem with

women voters at the moment? I don't accept that at all. I have been

fighting for women's writes since I had very dark hair indeed. For

centuries, women have progressed, but recently in Scotland, we have

been fighting equal pay cases against Labour councils. What

matters to women is that actions speak louder than words. It is not

just about pledges and events. It is having the courage of your

convictions. But just about every poll shows that women are much less

predisposed to vote yes than men are. If you won't even recognise

that that is an issue, it is difficult to see how you would do

anything about it. I am taking part in events, speaking to women at

weekends and in the evenings, and we want discussed a rectally with women

the concerns they have into a dress those concerns about the family, the

economy, a whole range of concerns that women are involved in. --

discuss directly with women. We want all Scottish women to become

involved in the debate. They are making a pledge about equal pay

legislation which was brought in 40 years ago. We have had 110 women in

Scotland die waiting for equal pay discussions to be resolved. Women

have lost faith in the will Labour Party, because they have the power

to sort this out, and they don't. They are fighting Labour councils

again and again to implement this. I think women want to hear what is

actually done in the ground. -- on the ground. But people want change,

and wanted delivered. People are concerned about what will happen

after a Yes vote, but this is about democracy, equality, a more

progressive Scotland, and I firmly believed that with a Yes vote, we

will have a more liberal and progressive Scotland. We will be

smaller but more powerful with control over our own destiny. I

don't believe the pledges outlined by the other party, because they are

premised on the fact that Mac I didn't ask you about that. Kezia

Dugdale, do you have a theory about why women might be less predisposed

at least at the moment is to vote Yes than men? Be very careful not to

treat women as one homogenous group who will vote one way or another

full up I am simply saying that every poll shows that large numbers

of women will vote yes, but many fewer than men. I am prefacing to

myself more than anything. Women have a multitude of reasons for why

they are voting No in September. I was out tonight, and I met one woman

in particular, an SNP voter, who is concerned about how she is a devoted

September full top she wants to go with her heart and vote Yes, but she

has serious concerns about what the vote means to her family, her

future, her pension, her children. She is thinking hard about how to

cast her vote. I think women get that this is a complex issue that is

about more than just the heart, and they are taking their time and

taking it seriously. That seems to be a version of a theory that we

often hear, that women are somehow less willing to take a chance, or

take a risk. Is that really the case, Kezia Dugdale? That women are

less likely to take a chance? You have outlined a version of a story

that goes that women are more risk averse, so less likely to vote for

independence because of the unknowns. I think that is fair. That

is what I regularly hear on the doorsteps. Women are not just

concerned about women's issues either. I care about the economic

reality of independence, too. This woman was worried about pension, and

she wanted to be sure it would still be there in pounds. Whether that is

scaremongering or not, it is the real sense in that woman's life

about what independence might mean for her family. Until the Yes

campaign can deal with those issues, they will still face this. Carol

Fox, I understood what you said about equal pay legislation. You

appear to be simply denying the evidence of just about every poll

that has ever been done on this. If you won't recognise there is an

issue here, it is difficult to see how you will address it. There is

nothing wrong with admitting what every poll has said. It is just a

fact. It is not, because the polls didn't predict what was happening in

2011, and with the greatest respect, I am basing my beliefs on 30 years

of campaigning and a great deal of experience in reality. I represented

15,000 low-paid women in the last six years, achieving millions of

pounds of settlement that went to low paid women. But that is

irrelevant to what we are discussing. It is highly relevant.

It is about actions speaking louder than words, having the courage of

your convictions, and making sure that equal pay is delivered. One of

the measures is that employers should publish the equal pay gap.

Surely it should be about closing it, not just publishing it. We have

an example of Labour councils still defending a decade later, and I

don't know how to Kezia Dugdale can say that the women who died awaiting

the equal pay would have been better together under the current system.

Labour councils have failed to deliver a quality, and that is why

women councillors are standing back. They want all politicians with the

courage of their convictions to deliver, not just on the pledges. We

have more work to do to discuss and interact with all women. Kezia

Dugdale, is there something patronising about the way that both

sides in the referendum campaign are approaching women with these

particular packages? Margaret Curran on your side coming up with five

pledges to women. I find it very interesting when you talked about

the woman you were talking to earlier that none of the issues that

concern her with the issues that Margaret Curran was talking about in

her pledges to women. Why shouldn't women be equally interested in

defence or whether I'm not the pound stays, or whatever? I said that you

two seconds ago. Economic realities and independents are probably the

big issues. Margaret Curran has been fighting for equality have whole

life, and that is what these issues are about. We recognise absolutely

that women care passionately about a number of different political

issues. I live in Edinburgh, I represent Edinburgh, and Edinburgh

Council, Labour lead, the first thing they did when they came in in

2011 was to address the equal pay gap, and I recognise there are

problems in other councils around the country, and I share Carol

Fox's anger and frustration, but in some of those councils where there

are problems, Labour have led the way on living wage which is tackling

low pay in love away, and the SNP Government have missed that boat. We

are running out of time, but I'm curious. Do you find it patronising

that both sides in the campaign, not one of the other, but both sides,

when they talk about women, talk about issues like childcare. Is

there not something rather condescending about that? Not at

all, because it is a central concern to many women's lives were now

working in juggling childcare. I find it patronising when we don't

have enough women on shows like this and talk shows, and I call upon the

BBC to make sure that you widen and the guests that you invite to these

kind of rogue rams and political programmes, and it is patronising to

have women only shows. You should be making sure that all political

discussions involve women. I have joined Women for Independence, which

is cross-party, not about the SNP, it is about democracy, and I would

encourage all women in Scotland to take the opportunity to get

involved. This is too important for party politics. Thank you both very

much. With me now is Professor John

Curtice of Strathclyde University. What are the facts on this. Is there

any evidence that, for example, the Scottish government's White papers

have attracted any more women to the Yes can?

We know that the leader of the nose slide. Mike Riddle is still a large

gender gap, if you look at the proportion of men in favour compared

to women in favour, there is still a ten point gap, so women are ten

points less likely to be in favour of independence than men, and this

is after the rise of the support for independence. If we look at the

trend over time, it is basically, the support for men and women goes

up and down in parallel lines and it has a long-standing gap, and there

is no particular sign of its closing. It is there and the

cheeses, the yes side have not said anything tonight. The truth is, it

is interesting that Alex Salmond focused on one of his key offers,

and we should be honest, it was not always clear that politicians were

saying we are talking about childcare because it appeals to

women, that is often the gloss that people like you and I put on it. The

truth is, if you think more broadly, all political parties have become

much more interested in childcare, the UK government has policies for

tax breaks, the Labour Party has a policy for expanding childcare which

is a UK wide policy which they have been looking for Scotland and the

SNP have also will become interested in childcare. If it were to have any

particular appeal at all, it is the fact they were talking about

something that the UK in terms of government and opposition, they have

been talking about how difficult it is to persuade people that it is

something that is distinctive to independence in Scotland. It is

simply a social change in society both north and south. Is there any

evidence that the issue is the political parties talk about when

they think they are appealing to women like Margaret Curran with her

five pledges, actually, they are the issues that influence women? There

is no evidence that women would be interested in certain issues rather

than others, like that they are interested in issues of childcare or

so on and so forth. There interested in issues of the economy and

employment, but what looks to be true, the reason why women are less

keen on independence is not because they are concerned about different

issues and they take a negative view about independence on those issues,

but rather, they are concerned like men, above all, about the issue of

the economy. It is simply an issue that women are about ten points more

pessimistic about the economic consequences of independence than

men are. We can argue about being risk averse or not, but one thing

that distinguishes women from men is that they are more likely to say,

well, I'm not terribly sure what the consequences of independence would

be and it is true that both men and women, who feel unsure about the

consequences of independence, are less likely to vote for it. Men and

women who are pessimistic about the economic consequences of

independence are less likely to vote for it. It is simply that there are

more women who are pessimistic about the economy and are unsure about the

consequences of independence. Now, why they take that view is a

difficult case to hear, and we had them talking about stereotypes and

risk aversion which is a possible explanation, another possible

explanation is that they are more hard-headed and more sceptical about

the offer is put by any politicians and a more sceptical about the

independence project. Thank you. Now, mixed news today for the

economy, with the GDP figures from the end of last year taking a knock

partly because of the Grangemouth shutdown, and also a drop in

construction. Scotland's economy grew by just 0.2% in the final three

months of 2013. Meanwhile growth in the UK in general has been exceeding

recent forecasts. With one eye on the referendum, our economics

correspondent Colletta Smith has been wondering if you can make a

connection between the state of the economy and support for home rule.

Despite the ups and downs in today's figures, Scotland's economy

has been improving in the last year. Fewer people are unemployed,

more people are in work and the economy is growing. You might not

been feeling it over the last couple of years, but if you look around

now, you can see one of the main drivers behind that economic growth.

We have been keeping our wallets away for the last five years, but

now, we're starting spend again. We are pleased to see that retail has

done well in the GDP statistics, but we do sense that with some of the

retailers in particular, they are showing good results. But it is

something we are cautious about because we want to see much more

growth in manufacturing and particularly in exports and

international trade. Spending has boosted the GDP figures for the end

of last year, but there is a simple reason why lots of us have not been

feeling any better off. It has been getting more and more expensive to

pay for stuff and since 2010, wages have not been rising nearly as

quickly as the price of goods. But today, we heard that wages have been

going up just as quickly as inflation. Which means that more of

us can start to feel the benefits of a growing economy. But does an

improving economy mean that a yes vote is more or less likely in

September's referendum? The numbers from the office of National

statistics start in 1955 and they show the size of the UK economy, so

let's take a look at key economic moments and see what was happening

within Scottish National is at the time. In 1967, Winnie Ewing with the

hammer total by-election for the SNP -- win the Hamilton by-election.

Hamilton has made history tonight. In 1963, the economy takes a way up

to 92%, and then drops down to a minus figure. In that time,

devolution is recommended for Scotland and the SNP win 11 seats at

Westminster, the most they have ever had. At party headquarters the point

with sober optimism to the fact that their support is nationwide. The

next big fluxes in 1979 which was the time of the first referendum on

devolution. Scroll forward to 1989 and the next bomb is the time of the

poll tax which saw a reinvigoration in Scottish National of them. We

want an army of people that can pay the poll tax, who are able to pay

the poll tax but will not pay the poll tax because they refused to bow

their need to a piece of English Tory legislation. The SNP did not do

too much to stand out from the crowd with the support for Scottish

devolution in 2002, but their victory in 2007 came on the cusp of

what we now know to be one of the biggest recessions in UK history and

their strength and a lateral win came in 2011, right at the time of

continuing economic austerity and tough times. -- their strength in an

electoral win. Tonight we have shown that not only can we win in Glasgow,

we can hold seats in Glasgow as well! It seems that historically,

the greatest political achievement of the SNP have, at times of great

economic change over a short period of time, with boom and bust. For

Westminster elections in particular, the economy has been a reasonably

good guide to the SNP's fortunes. Does that make a yes vote more less

likely September? Scottishness is overwhelmingly the choice of the

Scots in Scotland, and they like to see the Scottish economy doing well.

A lot of people will move towards different political positions on the

basis of the feel-good factor that comes from that. How many, remains

to be seen, but often, people say on the doorsteps, my head says no, my

heart says yes, and I guess that improving economic conditions have

to get the head and the heart are lined. You might say the chair of

the academics free yes is likely to say that, and this is a very

economic heavy reading of history, but there is still five months ago

and the only prediction we can make about September's economic

conditions is that no one is very good at predicting recent economic

twist and turns. A quick look at the newspapers,

starting with the Scotsman, the picture of the Korean ferry that

went down and the headline, power cut its 100,000 homes and

businesses, a major power failure in the North of Scotland. Inverness has

power again now. The Daily Telegraph, the Scots misled by the

wealth campaign by the referendum. That's all from me.

Mixed fortunes this Easter weekend, a mixed bag in the morning but some

brightness across southern and eastern areas. Cloudy and breezy

with showery rain. Many places will have a dry day. Some cloud in the

afternoon and the odd shower with some late brightness and increasing

sunshine across Scotland and in the afternoon. Some blustery showers

across the North of Scotland and a cool breeze, 1011 degrees. Some

patchy rain in northern England and some dry weather outside. Some

sunshine across the south-east and here, some warm weather and somebody

somewhere will not be far off 20 degrees. Some cloud Democrats

Southern counties and