Browse content similar to 13/01/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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France and eight other countries downgraded, the eurozone bailout in | :00:07. | :00:13. | |
peril, is this the end of the Franco German access at the heart | :00:13. | :00:18. | |
of -- axis at the heart of Europe. The world's leading ratings agency | :00:18. | :00:22. | |
says austerity is failing. 20 months on, why can no-one solve the | :00:22. | :00:25. | |
crisis that threatens Europe and the world economy. | :00:25. | :00:32. | |
We speak to the world's largest bond trade year, a G20 adviser, a | :00:32. | :00:37. | |
former British minister and a French economist. As the head of | :00:37. | :00:43. | |
the Arab League warns that Syria is sliding towards civil war, we're in | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
Damascus. We have been told not to travel anywhere outside the city | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
centre, that is because in the suburbs, on previous Fridays, there | :00:50. | :01:00. | |
has been serious trouble. Good evening. You don't have to be | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
superstitious to realise today was a bad one all round for the | :01:03. | :01:06. | |
eurozone. This evening the confirmation of the news the French | :01:06. | :01:13. | |
dreaded, the country would lose its triple-A status with Standard & | :01:13. | :01:16. | |
Poor's. Humiliation on a national level, particularly for paed facing | :01:16. | :01:21. | |
re-election in spring. The move could spell disaster for the entire | :01:21. | :01:23. | |
European bailout package, the European Financial Stability Fund. | :01:23. | :01:28. | |
Spain, Italy and six others were downgraded too, to round things off | :01:28. | :01:32. | |
talks on Greek debt write-offs have stalled. In a moment we will ask | :01:32. | :01:35. | |
the world's largest bond trader what impact this will have on the | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
world economy. We will talk to key figures here in Paris and London. | :01:39. | :01:44. | |
Will tonight's news spell the end of the Merkozy partnership, the | :01:44. | :01:50. | |
axis of European leadership. Germany, Finland, the netherlands | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
and Luxembourg, these are the only countries left in the eurozone, | :01:54. | :01:58. | |
where lending to them is 100% safe. France tonight had to face a | :01:58. | :02:03. | |
humiliating debt downgrade. The French Finance Minister shrugged it | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
off. TRANSLATION: We had warning this | :02:07. | :02:12. | |
was going to happen a month ago. It is not a big surprise. | :02:12. | :02:16. | |
No it is not a catastrophy. It is like asking a pupil, who was always | :02:16. | :02:21. | |
getting 20 out of 20, if getting a 19 out of 20 is a catastrophy. No, | :02:21. | :02:26. | |
of course it isn't. We have still got a great rating. But the | :02:26. | :02:31. | |
implications are huge. The ratings agency S & P, which also downgraded | :02:31. | :02:35. | |
Portugal, Austria and Spain, said the agreement reached on 9th | :02:35. | :02:38. | |
December has not produced a breakthrough of sufficient size and | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
scope to fully address the eurozone's financial problems. And | :02:42. | :02:48. | |
they said, dammingly, a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal | :02:48. | :02:52. | |
austerity alone, risks become self- defeating. In the short-term all | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
this makes this a bit more costly for France to borrow money. But the | :02:55. | :03:00. | |
move now calls into question the viability of the eurozone bailout | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
fund, the called EFSF, that is backed by Government, and if one of | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
them loses debt credibility, so does the fund. I don't think that | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
the ratings agencies are giving us any new information. I think that | :03:12. | :03:19. | |
they are telling us what we already knew. Part of what wr seeing | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
happening is the ratings agencies were really humbled in 200, by the | :03:23. | :03:28. | |
fact that they failed to give people -- 2008, by the fact that | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
they failed to give people an indication beforehand. I wouldn't | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
say they are trigger happeny now, but they are determined not to be | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
caught out again. Meanwhile, in Greece, the eurocrisis took a whole | :03:40. | :03:45. | |
different turn for the worse. Talks broke down between banks and the | :03:45. | :03:50. | |
Greek Government over the supposedly big write-off of half | :03:50. | :03:56. | |
Greek debt. That puts in question the second Greek bailout, worth 130 | :03:56. | :04:04. | |
billion euros. As Greek recoveryle stalls and debt spirals, the | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
question over Europe's recovery rises. The question of brinkmanship | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
in Greece is the big financial story today the that is the big | :04:12. | :04:19. | |
risk. So far Greece has gotten away with this slightly artificial | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
voluntary restructuring. It hasn't been all that voluntary. But that | :04:24. | :04:29. | |
has been an important fiction for the markets, because of all sorts | :04:29. | :04:34. | |
of legal covenants around that. If that breaks down, then I think | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
really up fortunately we are going to be in a stage in the European | :04:37. | :04:43. | |
crisis. And while all this happens, Hungary's stand-off with the EU and | :04:43. | :04:48. | |
IMF continues. Hungary's not in the euro, but its collapsing finances | :04:48. | :04:55. | |
means it needs up to $20 billion of loans from the IMF. Exposure to | :04:55. | :05:01. | |
Hungary what prompted S & P to downgrade Austria and Slovakia | :05:01. | :05:05. | |
tonight. Bit by bit the links in the eurocrisis are being forged. | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
Let's pick up with that. One reason this throws into | :05:09. | :05:14. | |
question the whole idea of France and Germany, they lose parity. That | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
was all so central to the two leaders at the top? Deep within the | :05:18. | :05:21. | |
inner circle of Mrs Merkel's Government, what they believe is | :05:21. | :05:27. | |
France and Germany have to be equals at the heart of the Uri | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
europroject. When you hear the French minister saying it is like | :05:30. | :05:33. | |
getting 19 out of 206789 the Germans look at it differently, | :05:33. | :05:39. | |
both in fistle kal terms, who pays to bail out everybody else, and in | :05:39. | :05:41. | |
moral terms, there has to be equalty. You can't have France | :05:41. | :05:44. | |
leaving the solution countries, and becoming one of the problem | :05:44. | :05:49. | |
countries. It is not yet, but this is a first step down that road. | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
There is another political problem, of course, the whole thing rests on | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
Mr Sarkozy getting re-elected. Because his opponent in France | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
against the treaty, that isn't now, we hear, working. Mr Sarkozy now | :06:02. | :06:07. | |
has to go to the polls and say I'm the man who lost our triple-A | :06:07. | :06:10. | |
rating. Not easy to do. We heard one commentator say this | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
is a new stage in the European crisis just when you thought it | :06:14. | :06:19. | |
wasn't going to get any worse. What are the solutions now, are they | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
changing as a consequence of this? It hasn't got worse in a sense | :06:24. | :06:29. | |
tonight, S & P says the policy of pumping money into the system is | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
holding the situation. There is a really interestingp couple of lines | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
in this, where they say you are misdiagnosing the problem, you | :06:38. | :06:42. | |
think it is profligacy on the borders, Greece and Ireland, it is | :06:42. | :06:47. | |
both that and Europe's general lack of competitiveness, its general | :06:47. | :06:52. | |
malaise and problem. They say if you try to solve this with | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
austerity alone, it will not work. It will be a spiral that will | :06:55. | :07:00. | |
simply, the implication is, lead to a whole string of defaults. That | :07:00. | :07:04. | |
sounds a bit like what Ed Balls says in this country, but in the | :07:04. | :07:10. | |
eurozone it is what Barroso has been saying, and Dominic Strauss | :07:10. | :07:16. | |
Khan used to say. You can't cut your way out of the crisis. And for | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
a very neo-liberal American Wall Street company to back that up is | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
quite surprising. Thank you very much. | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
The eurozone crisis threatps the entire world economy, clearly, and | :07:26. | :07:32. | |
to try to see where it might end, I'm joined now from Paris from | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
Professor Christian de Boissieu, an economist, and from California by | :07:37. | :07:41. | |
Mohamed El-Erian, one of the world's biggest bond traders, and | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
here by the former minister, Baroness Vladivostok, thank you | :07:46. | :07:51. | |
very much for joining me. Professor De Boissieu, we heard your Finance | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
Minister say it was not a catastrophy, of course it is not a | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
catastrophy. As Paul was saying, it puts France now in the position of | :07:58. | :08:03. | |
being one of the problem countries, not solution countries. That is | :08:03. | :08:10. | |
bad? It is not a catastrophy, for me it is an event. It it is an | :08:10. | :08:14. | |
event in the sense that it is creating, as you said, a gap, a | :08:14. | :08:19. | |
financial gap between France and Germany, and I think that one | :08:19. | :08:25. | |
purpose of the next summit, at the end of this month, will start to | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
close this gap. I would say at least from the political viewpoint. | :08:29. | :08:35. | |
And we have to deepen the Franco German co-operation, not despite | :08:35. | :08:40. | |
thep gap, but because of the gap. That is interesting. Do you think | :08:40. | :08:44. | |
that kind of co-operation, that parity can exist in the same way we | :08:44. | :08:49. | |
have seen it in the last year or so? You are talking about austerity, | :08:49. | :08:56. | |
you know. Just a word about this, we have to work on the two legs. I | :08:56. | :09:06. | |
:09:06. | :09:06. | ||
remember that one year ago the rating at were asking only for | :09:06. | :09:12. | |
fiscal consolidation, and now, they are right when they ask for the two, | :09:12. | :09:17. | |
fiscal counsel daigs, plus some growth initiative -- consolidation, | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
plus some growth initiative. The same, the next European Summit at | :09:21. | :09:26. | |
the end of January, will have to address the growth, the growth | :09:26. | :09:30. | |
problem for Europe. Very interesting. We will just try to | :09:30. | :09:34. | |
fix that sound problem. Apologies for that there. If I can turn to | :09:34. | :09:39. | |
you, Mohamed El-Erian, is it wrong to take too much from one agency. | :09:39. | :09:46. | |
Will it actually make a difference to how you trade, how you invest? | :09:46. | :09:52. | |
In the short-term it will not. In fact, the markets had priced in a | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
much biger downgrade than what S & P delivered for fraps. In the short | :09:56. | :10:01. | |
run, no, -- France. In the short run, no. In the long run this is | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
really consequential. First, as has been discussed. It creates a wedge | :10:05. | :10:09. | |
at the inner core of the eurozone, that makes solutions much more | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
difficult. Secondly, it undermines pan-European vehicle that is are | :10:13. | :10:19. | |
there to bail out other countries. Thirdly, let's not forget that when | :10:19. | :10:23. | |
you lose your triple-A, you change your investor base, there are fewer | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
people out there, because certain people have a limit of triple-A on | :10:28. | :10:34. | |
where they are willing to invest. In the short run it is not an | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
immediate reaction because the market had priced more, but it is a | :10:37. | :10:44. | |
par dime shift for Europe. leaves -- Pardigm shift. For Europe. | :10:44. | :10:50. | |
It leaves Germany where it didn't want to be, going it alone? That is | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
a very valid point, the fund that is there to bailout European | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
countries has now got fewer triple- A countries backing it. That will | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
make really hard for it to raise money. Literally one major one, it | :11:03. | :11:08. | |
is Germany? Indeed. The question that is now facing Europe is, in | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
the event that Italy and Spain can't access the markets any more, | :11:11. | :11:15. | |
where is the source of liquidity, if it is not this fund, it doesn't | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
want to be Germany, and the European Central Bank says it is | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
constrained and can't do certain things, who going to bail out Italy | :11:23. | :11:26. | |
and Spain. That is the question we are going to face going forward. | :11:26. | :11:32. | |
Are you saying this is the end of the EFSF in its current shape now? | :11:32. | :11:37. | |
To be perfectly Honest, the EFSF has had a limited amount of money, | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
and the situation hasn't particularly changed. The agreement | :11:41. | :11:45. | |
they reached to leverage it four or five times was always rather | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
nonsensical, the situation is actually very similar to where we | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
were before, which is who going to provide the liquidity. Mohamed El- | :11:52. | :11:57. | |
Erian, we were talking about the dual angle of the news today, you | :11:57. | :12:01. | |
were saying that this made it much more difficult for countries to | :12:01. | :12:05. | |
have a concerted project, if you like, to help others. We know that | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
Greek debt talks have now stalled, what's the future there, do you | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
think we're actually going to see that whole debt having to be | :12:13. | :12:21. | |
written off, because basically defaulted on its own? There is no | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
doubt in my mind that Greece will default. By he default I mean that | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
if you are a holder of Greek bonds, the terms of your bonds are change. | :12:29. | :12:34. | |
You will take what's called a haircut. You will have a lower | :12:34. | :12:39. | |
claim on Greece. The question how is this done? There was a hope that | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
you could do this in an orderly fashion, which is is another way of | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
saying you don't trigger legal contracts. What happened today | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
makes that more complicated. But I don't think it is that bad news. I | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
have been stunned as to how tolerant the Greeks have been with | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
their private creditors. Their private creditors were scaring the | :12:59. | :13:02. | |
Greek, and I think it is a good thing, that the Greeks have | :13:02. | :13:07. | |
realised that the balance of power is much more balanced than they had | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
perceived before today. It is quite interesting, Christian de Boissieu, | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
does it mean that France no longer has this moral authority then to | :13:14. | :13:20. | |
turn to other countries and say, you know, you need to cut, you need | :13:20. | :13:25. | |
to rein in, these are the areas that you need to work on? No, this | :13:25. | :13:31. | |
is not the end of France. Let's be cautious about this. May I say it | :13:31. | :13:38. | |
is not either the end of the EFSF, it is going to complicate the | :13:38. | :13:43. | |
working and the cost of the EFSF. Therefore, I want to open for | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
debate about the role of the ECB, because I think that beyond what | :13:47. | :13:52. | |
has been at the sided today by Standard & Poor's, I think that -- | :13:52. | :13:54. | |
decided today by Standard & Poor's. I think that the debate about the | :13:54. | :13:59. | |
possibility for the ECB to be a full lender of last resorter for | :13:59. | :14:02. | |
the eurozone will come back. It will come back around the table. | :14:02. | :14:08. | |
is interesting, isn't it, Germany's resisted this, Baroness Vladivostok, | :14:08. | :14:13. | |
it is pretty much Germany on its -- Baroness Vader, it is really much | :14:13. | :14:16. | |
Germany on its own with the fund, really doesn't matter? It does | :14:17. | :14:21. | |
matter, as far as the ECB is concerned, they have constraints on | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
their own institution, they can only buy debt on the secondary | :14:25. | :14:31. | |
market. Today one member of the ECB said they are unhappy at the draft | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
fistle kal pact that has been circulating, saying -- fiscal pact, | :14:36. | :14:45. | |
saying that it has been wartrd down. Something to do with the S & P's | :14:45. | :14:49. | |
downgrading saying austerity is not the only answer. With the ECB | :14:49. | :14:54. | |
intervening it is asking for much tougher austerity. The other | :14:54. | :14:59. | |
complication with the Greek debt that we should be aware of. If the | :14:59. | :15:04. | |
deal becomes coercive not voluntary, it is the ECB, as a significant | :15:04. | :15:09. | |
holder of Greek debt, will have to take a haircut and a loss. This | :15:09. | :15:12. | |
idea that too much store was put on austerity, Christian de Boissieu, | :15:12. | :15:18. | |
and it comes from quite an unusual source. Do you think that Europe | :15:18. | :15:25. | |
will start to re-think the way it has been talking? We will be | :15:25. | :15:29. | |
talking about spending rather than cutting? First, let me say, I don't | :15:29. | :15:34. | |
think this do. Let me first say that there was a word "alone", | :15:34. | :15:40. | |
fiscal austerity "alone", that is because fiscal solvency has a | :15:40. | :15:44. | |
numerateor and denominator. You get into problems because you have too | :15:44. | :15:54. | |
:15:54. | :15:55. | ||
much debt, and also because you have too little growth. Any debt | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
has to deal with the numerator and the deno mam theator. In Greece all | :16:00. | :16:08. | |
the focus has been on the numerator. Two years where the Greeks have | :16:08. | :16:12. | |
consentrated a lot on certain things and given a lot, it is no | :16:12. | :16:15. | |
better than two years ago. The design of the programme has been | :16:15. | :16:20. | |
too tilted towards the fistle kal side. It has to be brought back | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
towards fistle kal and structural reforms to promote economic growth. | :16:25. | :16:29. | |
How much of the euro zone is currently in resection. We won't | :16:29. | :16:33. | |
know for sure, but when you look -- recession, we won't know for sure, | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
but when we look at today and put it into practical terms, do you | :16:37. | :16:47. | |
:16:47. | :16:51. | ||
think most of the eurozone is in recession now. I do, Germany is | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
slowing, but it isn't in recession. Everywhere in the world the head | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
wind will come from Europe in the form of lower growth, and low | :16:58. | :17:02. | |
demand for exports, and more financial disruptions. He yes, | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
unfortunately, most European countries are already in what feels | :17:05. | :17:10. | |
like and what is a recession. Christian de Boissieu, just a very | :17:10. | :17:13. | |
last question, your Finance Minister said before Christmas that, | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
actually, Britain was the one that should be downgraded rather than | :17:17. | :17:23. | |
France, would you go along with that? No, you know, I don't want to | :17:23. | :17:29. | |
come into this debate between Great Britain and France, you know. I'm | :17:29. | :17:33. | |
glad that Great Britain still triple-A, and we will see what is | :17:33. | :17:39. | |
going on. This is not the end of the movie. And to come back to the | :17:39. | :17:46. | |
growth initiative, I think that we have to do something very quickly, | :17:46. | :17:52. | |
most European countries to go out of recession and of the zero growth | :17:52. | :17:56. | |
situation, and to face the challenge of unemployment, which is | :17:56. | :17:58. | |
the main challenge that we have to face today. | :17:58. | :18:04. | |
Thank you very much all of you. In Syria, protests have erupted in | :18:04. | :18:08. | |
several cities and the head of the Arab League says he fears the | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
bloody unrest could degenerate into civil war. Opposition activists | :18:11. | :18:17. | |
have called for mass rallies in support of the Free Syrian Army, | :18:17. | :18:20. | |
defectors seeking to topple the Government. The Arab League sent a | :18:20. | :18:24. | |
mission into the country to see if authorities were complying with a | :18:24. | :18:29. | |
plan to halt the violence. One of the monitors said the league | :18:29. | :18:35. | |
mission has only bought, Assad, the President, more time. | :18:35. | :18:39. | |
Friday morning, the start of what usually is the biggest day of the | :18:39. | :18:44. | |
week for anti-Government protests in Syria. Outside Damascus's most | :18:44. | :18:47. | |
venerable mosque, with Government Goons standing around, all the | :18:48. | :18:57. | |
:18:58. | :18:59. | ||
voices are pro-regime. TRANSLATION: Everyone loves Bashar | :18:59. | :19:04. | |
al-Assad, that is why we go out, in the rain, in the cold, even in snow. | :19:04. | :19:08. | |
Everyone goes to support him. what do they think of all those who | :19:08. | :19:14. | |
say there is no democracy here? They are not protesting about the | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
freedom. They don't want the freedom. What do they want? They | :19:17. | :19:22. | |
want to destroy our city. They say they simply want democracy, they | :19:22. | :19:28. | |
want freedom? No, they are liars. This demonstration, in a tightly | :19:28. | :19:31. | |
controlled environment, is the only one the Government wants us to see | :19:31. | :19:36. | |
today. We have been told we can't travel anywhere outside the city | :19:36. | :19:40. | |
centre, and that's because, in the suburbs, on previous Fridays, there | :19:40. | :19:47. | |
has been serious trouble. Today, all main intersections were | :19:47. | :19:56. | |
guarded by plain clothes security. The pictures posted on YouTube, | :19:56. | :20:00. | |
show, what opposition sources say, was a sizeable anti-regime | :20:00. | :20:07. | |
demonstration, in a suburb today. There was another, according to | :20:07. | :20:17. | |
those sources, in the eastern day of city of Deraa, others show smoke | :20:17. | :20:22. | |
billowing over Homs, scene of some of the Washington Post violence in | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
the ten month uprising. Gunfire can be heard in the streets, and a | :20:26. | :20:29. | |
Government tank was apparently set on fire. Across the country, at | :20:29. | :20:34. | |
least ten people were reported killed in protests. | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
Back in it central Damascus, life appeared to be continuing as normal. | :20:38. | :20:41. | |
But you could feel the tension in the air. | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
None of these people were prepared to talk to us. Afraid of opening | :20:45. | :20:51. | |
their mouths in the presence of our Government minder. This district, | :20:51. | :20:56. | |
Midian, in the heart of Damascus, has seen many anti-Government | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
protests in recent months, many shot dead by Government forces. The | :21:01. | :21:05. | |
regime is finding it harder to keep a grip, even op the capital. The | :21:05. | :21:09. | |
Government says it has already offered citizens enough concessions. | :21:09. | :21:14. | |
We see it like two parties, one part is the legitimate demands of | :21:14. | :21:18. | |
the Syrian people. And the President doing his best with the | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
Government to respond to legislative demands, he has | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
completed many benchmarks and is committed to do more. On the other | :21:25. | :21:29. | |
side there are people who are trying to kidnap the agenda of the | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
reasonable demands of the people, to ride on it and hit Syria. What | :21:33. | :21:39. | |
benchmark has he achieved? First, we abolished the martial law. We | :21:39. | :21:47. | |
have a demonstrations, we are urging the opposition to | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
demonstrate. These demonstrations are being fired on? It depends on | :21:51. | :21:55. | |
the sequences you are watching on YouTube. I don't want to justify | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
violence in any way. There are clear instructions for the security | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
forces not to shoot, just to contaun. Suddenly somebody will be | :22:02. | :22:06. | |
shooting at the soldiers, and they will be defending themselves. Yes, | :22:07. | :22:11. | |
mistakes happened, yes, happened, but what a leader can promise | :22:11. | :22:14. | |
accountability. There is no systematic or clear instruction to | :22:14. | :22:23. | |
do a crackdown. I'm going to ask you one of the few opposition | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
figures not in -- ask one of the few opposition figures not in | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
hiding, about what the Government has saying, he is a moderate and | :22:31. | :22:35. | |
wants talks, the regime has not reached out to him. TRANSLATION: | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
For five months we haven't heard from the Government. They haven't | :22:40. | :22:43. | |
contacted any opposition group. Maybe they are in touch with some | :22:43. | :22:46. | |
political forces that are pro- regime, but the authorities are | :22:46. | :22:52. | |
lying when they say he they want a political solution. | :22:52. | :23:01. | |
Mobbed by reporters, Sudanese monitor, is the man many hope still | :23:01. | :23:06. | |
will engineer a political solution. He heads an Arab League mission | :23:06. | :23:09. | |
supposed to monitor and end violence. Even some of his own | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
monitors have come under attack from Government forces and | :23:12. | :23:16. | |
supporters. How worried are you about the safety of your monitors | :23:16. | :23:22. | |
here? I am not worried about their safety. They are working, and they | :23:22. | :23:27. | |
are doing their job. As we asked. They have been attacked? | :23:27. | :23:32. | |
attacked. There has been an attack on them? Some of the monitors' | :23:32. | :23:37. | |
vehicles tell another story. They have been wrecked by people who | :23:37. | :23:42. | |
certainly appear to support President Assad. | :23:43. | :23:48. | |
As the killing continued else, more apparently fervent supporters of | :23:48. | :23:52. | |
President Assad gathered in a Damascus square today. Many of them | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
are unlikely to care too much whether the monitoring mission | :23:56. | :24:00. | |
succeeds. Syria's becoming ever more polarised. The stalemate here, | :24:00. | :24:06. | |
of more dangerous. I'm joined now from Damascus. We | :24:06. | :24:09. | |
heard you talking there of that need for a political situation. | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
Where do you see this ending? strikes you, Emily, most forcibly, | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
when you come here, that there seems to be almost no meeting point | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
at all between what opponents and supporters of the Government | :24:23. | :24:29. | |
believe, and all the talk by the Government of a foreign conspiracy, | :24:29. | :24:34. | |
against Syria, just seems almost calculated to bring people further | :24:34. | :24:41. | |
and further apart. Certainly, even the opposition agrees, that | :24:41. | :24:44. | |
President Assad has some genuine support, on top of that there are | :24:44. | :24:49. | |
many more people who don't like him, but are certainly afraid of the | :24:49. | :24:53. | |
consequences of his possible fall. In some cases I have been told what | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
that means individual families are being split, and on top of that, | :24:56. | :25:03. | |
you have certainly the threat, now, of an ip creased militarisation of | :25:03. | :25:07. | |
the conflict -- increased militarisation of conflict on both | :25:07. | :25:12. | |
sides. You have he defectors carrying arms, and opponents | :25:12. | :25:15. | |
carrying arms, as they say, to defend themselves. When you talk | :25:15. | :25:18. | |
about individual families being split, sound like they are already | :25:18. | :25:23. | |
on the road to civil war, now? think many people think they are. | :25:23. | :25:28. | |
Really, a great deal depends now on the report of the monitors to the | :25:28. | :25:34. | |
Arab League, that are come at the end of next week. If that is | :25:34. | :25:38. | |
critical of the Syrian Government, that possibly opens the door for | :25:38. | :25:43. | |
more pressure on the country from the UN. Although I think everyone | :25:43. | :25:48. | |
agrees that intervention here, of the kind of intervention we saw in | :25:48. | :25:53. | |
Libya completely unthinkable for diplomatic and geographical reasons. | :25:53. | :25:57. | |
On the other happened, if the report favourable towards the | :25:57. | :26:00. | |
Syrian Government, you think there is not much sign anything changing | :26:00. | :26:07. | |
at all. Joining me now, the former US | :26:07. | :26:12. | |
representative to NATO, and a founderer member of the Syrian | :26:12. | :26:22. | |
:26:22. | :26:22. | ||
opposition group, Building The Syrian State, and astro fist sis. | :26:22. | :26:28. | |
-- atrophysicist. Do you feel civil war is inevitable? I think we may | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
have passed a tipping point, two reasons, one is the degree which | :26:32. | :26:34. | |
people are defecting from the military to join in armed | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
opposition to the Government. And secondly, the statements and | :26:38. | :26:43. | |
actions by Assad himself, both saying that he is accusing the | :26:43. | :26:48. | |
uprisers of being forp of-inspired, and willing to use force of his own | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
regime against that really without end. I think that is a really | :26:52. | :26:55. | |
volatile situation that may have passed a point of no return. Do you | :26:55. | :26:59. | |
think that what the Arab League hasp done, since December, has | :26:59. | :27:04. | |
helped or hindered? I think it was a necessary thing to go through. It | :27:04. | :27:08. | |
was important for the Arab League to raise the issues with Syria, to | :27:08. | :27:12. | |
give him a chance to change course. To put monitors in there. As we | :27:12. | :27:15. | |
have seen the monitors have been attacked, more people have been | :27:15. | :27:19. | |
killed each day, since the monitors have been there, than even before | :27:19. | :27:24. | |
that. We have to recognise that Assad is digging in, with a | :27:24. | :27:28. | |
monopoly of force in the military and Intelligence Services and | :27:28. | :27:32. | |
others, we will see increased bloodshed as he tries to hang on in | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
this situation. There cannot be a political solution to this, it has | :27:35. | :27:41. | |
gone too far? We have to force for one, there is no choice in Syria. | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
As said, the Syrian war already -- the civil war has already started | :27:45. | :27:50. | |
in areas around Homs, and the countryside. If unrest spreads in | :27:50. | :27:53. | |
Syria, it will go outside the borders, reaching Lebanon and Iraq | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
and the other countries. We can't afford to have it. Do you think he | :27:57. | :28:02. | |
can be encouraged to leave, still? He has to be forced. If the | :28:02. | :28:05. | |
international community push for a political solution and the | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
opposition as well, and the Arab League, if everybody pushes for | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
that solution, eventually we will reach it. We have to reach the | :28:11. | :28:16. | |
condition where we reach a peaceful, the regime accepts a peaceful | :28:16. | :28:22. | |
transition plan, there is no other choice, we can't push for force or | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
foreign interveings. You talk the Arab League, wider, you will not | :28:26. | :28:31. | |
get UN countries and China and Russia to agree to something like | :28:31. | :28:35. | |
that? They won't agree to a Libyan- like situation, but a more peaceful | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
transition plan. You need to put forward something these countries | :28:39. | :28:44. | |
will accept. Do you think that will happen? No, it would be wonderful | :28:44. | :28:48. | |
if this did, that would be the best outcome, but I don't think it will. | :28:48. | :28:52. | |
Assad has made his stand that he will remain in power by force. You | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
will have countries such as Russia and Iran that will continue to back | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
him. The population that is suffering these attacks at the | :28:59. | :29:03. | |
hands of the regime, will continue to suffer them, unless he is forced | :29:03. | :29:07. | |
to go. Are you advocating what? is a very tough question, it is not | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
simple, as your reporter said, there are lots of divisions within | :29:11. | :29:16. | |
Syria, there are legitimate supporters for the regime, but | :29:16. | :29:20. | |
there is also a lot of fear. There is an idea kicked around, I'm | :29:20. | :29:23. | |
sympathetic to it, and I have seen it in other places where it is | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
successful, the idea of a safe zone. You impose a zone where people can | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
live without fear of attack, where you prevent aircraft or regime | :29:30. | :29:36. | |
forces from getting there, that gives some space for humanitarian | :29:36. | :29:41. | |
assistance and co-ordination with some time. It would never work, the | :29:41. | :29:44. | |
area in north of Syria you are talking about, it is already not | :29:44. | :29:50. | |
safe. The way to impose is by force, that will be more unsafe. What | :29:50. | :29:56. | |
about the Syrians killed in the basements of the intelligence | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
quarters in Homs, or hundreds of kilometres away, how will they be | :30:01. | :30:07. | |
safe because of the area. How will those civilians be protected by an | :30:07. | :30:12. | |
area in the north of Syria. Unless you push for a Libyan of-like | :30:12. | :30:16. | |
scenario and push for civil war. Nobody is suggesting that? I would | :30:16. | :30:21. | |
point to examples in Croatia, where the UN created safe zones to | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
protect minority populations. Before it is too late? In the | :30:25. | :30:28. | |
Kurdish region of Iraq where we had a safe zone in Iraq, that protected | :30:28. | :30:32. | |
thousands of Kurds for a very long time. What I'm suggesting that | :30:32. | :30:35. | |
there is a monopoly of force in the hands of the Government, they are | :30:35. | :30:38. | |
determined to use it. In that situation, if you are going to | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
bring about a change, you have to help the people push back on that. | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
Thank you both very much indeed. We have lots of lovely newspapers | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
for you, including all the French ones and their take on the | :30:49. | :30:52. | |
downgrade, we have run out of time. Kirsty is here on Monday, good | :30:52. | :31:02. | |
:31:02. | :31:26. | ||
night from all of uts here. It's already cold outside. There | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
will be a widespread frost for Saturday morning, there will be | :31:29. | :31:32. | |
some fog much patches around as well. The fog could take a while to | :31:32. | :31:36. | |
clear, once it has gone it is looking fine and sunny out there. | :31:36. | :31:42. | |
Similar sort of day on Sunday morning. There will be stubborn fog | :31:42. | :31:47. | |
patches, if it lingers tchures are struggle to get much above freezing. | :31:47. | :31:51. | |
Blue skies by the jaefpb. Temperatures reaching 4-6. Mab a | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
touch higher in the south west. -- maybe a touch higher in the south | :31:56. | :32:00. | |
west. A breeze that will drift across Devon and Cornwall. A bit | :32:00. | :32:05. | |
more of a breeze, for most of Wales fine and sunny. Highs of five or | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
six. Same sort of temperatures across noerm. A gentle breeze will | :32:09. | :32:14. | |
bring a little -- Northern Ireland, a gent breeze will bring a little | :32:14. | :32:21. | |
loud. In Scotland a lot of cloud. The top temperatures seven or eight. | :32:21. | :32:26. | |
The weather has settled across the UK because high pressure, the same | :32:26. | :32:29. | |
high pressure system promising fine conditions across France, the low | :32:29. | :32:32. | |
countries and Germany, chilly but sunny. | :32:33. | :32:36. | |
Further south across Europe more distubed, rain in Rome, and | :32:36. | :32:40. |