07/03/2012 Newsnight


07/03/2012

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Six healthy young men cut off in the prime of their lives, executing

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a task which would any way have been terminated on the orders of

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politicians in a couple of years time. In death they are rightly

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honoured, how can belief be maintained in a mission, that seems

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as hazardous as it ever was. We will discuss it all with

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politicians, a soldier and a relative.

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At last some economic news, which isn't gloomy, out in the Wols,

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something is stirring, and yes, it looks like something distinctly

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like green shoots. A couple of years ago we were making 35 of

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these gas turbines, next year it is 81, and next year 100. He has made

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himself immensely rich, why can't Mitt Romney make himself appealing

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to the people he needs if he's ever to make good on his bomb bast.

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Tonight we are counting up the delegates for the convention, it

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looks good, and we are counting down the days to November, that

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looks even better. It is a very Mel collie milestone,

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over 400 young people have been killed in Afghanistan, for what.

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The six soldiers of the Yorkshire and Duke of Lancaster regiments

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were on what is described as a routine patrol in an armoured

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personnel carrier when they were blown up. British troops have been

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in the country for over a decade, we are told the last combat

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soldiers will return at the end of the year after next. Before we talk

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about the mission, our defence editor has his assessment. At times

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like this, people ask what is this for. More than 400 have died, and

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thousands have had their lives irrevokably changed through injury.

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The years become intangible, and it is hard to maintain public support

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for the mission. Dan Jarvis commanded a group of paratroopers

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in Afghanistan, and is now an MP. think it is hard, the events of the

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last 24 hours, will inevitably contribute towards a fatigue for

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our mission in Afghanistan. My constituents continue to question

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why it is we are still involved in Afghanistan, ten years after we

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first went there. A Government of whatever colour has a job to

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articulate that stragically it is in this country's interest to

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continue with the mission, to work towards a point at which we can

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develop the capabilities of the Afghanistan force, to withdraw in

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good order. The latest loss was caused by a

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destruction of a Warrior infantry fighting vehicle. It is a heavily

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armoured machine, which suggests a huge improvised bomb. The image of

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destroyed hardware is one of great sensitivity in the war of

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perceptions. The wreck was surrounded with other vehicles to

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conceal it, and recovered at night to a British base. Commanders

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insisted the loss wouldn't affect their day-to-day mission.

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You feel it in your gut, it is a sickening blow. But one thing I

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have learned over the years that these young soldiers are incred

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plea tough and resilient. They -- incredibly tough and resilient.

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They grieve and it is right they do, but it makes their resolve even

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stronger. Today's incident was a shock, but runs counter to the

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trend. The number of British troops lost in combat has actually fallen

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steeply. Going from 108 in 2009, or 109 in 2010, to 46 last year, and

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ten so far this year, including today's loss. That is due to new

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tactics, the concentration of force in a smaller part of Helmand, as

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well as handing over some of the most difficult districts, like

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Sangin in the north, to the Americans. The problem for Britain

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is British forces are making real progress where they are operating.

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They are winning all the tactical battles and the battle for hearts

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and minds where they are. As a country and alliance we are letting

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the war slip away. We can't control what happens in Pakistan and the

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way the Americans think about the war. The whole Afghanistan

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enterprise is out of our control. All we can do is the best we can in

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the areas we operate. They are doing a good job, but ultimately we

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are win the battles in probably a war we will find difficult to come

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away with anything other than a score draw. For the Prime Minister,

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who has sought to extricate Britain from Afghanistan, as quickly as is

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decently possible, today's loss required a statement of why young

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men and women are still risking their lives there. Our mission in

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Afghanistan does remain an issue of national security. We are

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preventing a safe haven for Al- Qaeda where they might plan attacks

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on allies. Our job is to equip the forces of Afghanistan with the

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capacity and equipment to take care of their own capacity without the

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need for foreign troops on the soil. But it is precisely in this area

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that the last few weeks have raised renewed concerns in NATO.

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Demonstrations triggered by the burning of Korans have shown the

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mutual incomprehension between westerners and Afghans. They have

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also cost the lives of NATO soldiers, who were trying to

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prepare Afghan forces to take over. It is the failure of the Afghan

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side in governance, general competence, or those incidents

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where Afghan troops have murdered western soldiers who were trying to

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help them, that have caused the greatest concern among those

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planning Britain's exit. As for the record of this country's forces,

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the military view tends to be, that after a shaky and costly start,

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they have mastered operating in Helmand, and are doing their best

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to move gracefully into the background. The reality is, we have

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to have a incredibly close and carefully managed relationship with

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the Afghan authorities. Let's be honest, that comes with a degree of

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risk. Because the main enemy of the people of Afghanistan is not the

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Taliban or Al-Qaeda, it is corruption. We need to do

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everything we can to root out corruption where it exists in

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Afghanistan. That is much easier to say than do. Increasingly the

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weight of the western mission in Afghanistan is in the hands of

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Afghans. NATO accepts that, but senior people are nervous about how

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they will perform, hoping the sacrifices, like Britains today,

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might -- Britain's today, might not have been in vain.

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Our political editor and our diplomatic editor are both here now.

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Does the Government sense the public mood is shifting?

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Government has known for a while that the public mood is hostile,

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that is why we have the deadline of 2015. They are moving towards that

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next week, next week we have Cameron and Obama meeting and

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timetables will be on the agenda. When it was last a big issue, David

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Cameron had a slight fight with the generals and they talked about

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wanting two fighting seasons. They got last summer, a fighting season

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in Afghanistan. They get the next summer, this is this coming summer,

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from the autumn we will begin to see the beginning of the drawdown.

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What is fixed is they have to be out by 2014/15. What is less fixed

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is the speed. There has been some discussion that by late 2013, this

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was suggested by the US Defence Secretary, it is the American

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leadership, or the faltering of it that is so critical here. With Iraq

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America stayed to the end, Britain wanted out, two-and-a-half years

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sooner, with Afghanistan we have seen other countries fall by the

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way side. Canada going into a non- combat role, the Netherlands

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withdrawing, France announcing, after four men were killed training

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the Afghans that they are going sooner. Britain does seem to be

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hanging on until the end. What is the strategy? The strategy is

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Karzai was meeting Cameron in the UK in January, the strategy is as

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much support as possible. They think the military strategy, the

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sad six deaths, withstanding, is actually going OK. I was in

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Afghanistan with the Prime Minister in the last summer, and at the time

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they felt that the local troops were really not good enough. Those

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same people are now saying they are getting better. The thing they are

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very worried about is the political process and Hamid Karzai. Indeed,

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the other great thing, that is making this so hard, this final

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period, is the attitude of Pakistan. The civilian Government barely in

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control, elements of the ISI seemingly want to make NATO's exit

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as bloody and as unpleasant as possible, and doing things to

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destablise the situation. It is a very difficult strategic picture.

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To discuss the British experience in Afghanistan and what it is all

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for, we are joined by Diane Dernie, whose son was severely injured in

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Afghanistan, which Stuart Tootal who command add battalion in

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Helmand, Menzies Campbell from the Liberal Democrats, and Labour's Jim

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Murphy, the Shadow Defence Secretary. Your son is not one of

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these 400 people who have lost their lives, but he was, he lost

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his legs, he was severely brain- damageed. Your family have paid a

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high price for this engagment, when you hear the news today what do you

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think? We think we are the lucky ones. No matter what, we have got

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our loved ones back. When we talk about the end of the mission, what

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people have to understand is for these boys and girls coming back,

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their war is only just starting. They will come back to a country,

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particularly if they are wounded, physically and mentally, that is

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not prepared for their return. An NHS that is not prepared, an MoD

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that is not prepared. Employment, housing, these boys have got a

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fight when they come home, make no mistake. Do you think troops should

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still be in Afghanistan? I don't want to see one more boy injured,

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one more family suffer. I don't want to see their sacrifice being

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in vain. This is one instance where I'm very, very glad it is not on my

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conscience, this decision. If you were still a commander in

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Afghanistan, Stuart Tootal, what would you tell your men about why

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they were there and why this was a sacrifice that was worth making?

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First of all, they would understand the mission from the get-go. We

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would be really clear on that. When a unit takes this level of

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casualties. Remember the loss of one life is tragic and has an

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impact. There is a shock, but actually there is also a very clear

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determination to see a mission through, that is what professional

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soldiers and servicemen and women do. While I take away nothing from

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the tragedy of what happened today, our troops will be committee and as

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focused. While a commanding officer will say all those things, his

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soldiers will naturally respond to that. What is the mission? To leave

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Afghanistan in a stable enough condition, where it can maintain

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and sustain its own security, without the need for the direct

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contribution of NATO troops. Murphy, it was your Government that

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initially committed British troops there, I dare say you didn't

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imagine them there ten years on. Do you understand what the mission is

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now? I think Stuart has summarised it fairly well. As someone who has

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served in Afghanistan. It is to make sure the country has a degree

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of stability, so it has its own defence and police force, so itself

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can't become an ungoverned space to allow terrorists and others to

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attack our country. On a day like today, and other days, where we

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have heard about Ben being so horrifically injured, I accept

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entirely it is so much more difficult to make an argument, that

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is so much more complicated than previous conflicts, the Falklands

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and the Second World War. It is more complicated and more nuanced

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as an argument. If we weren't there, that country would be jeopardising

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the safety of citizens here and elsewhere. It is a difficult

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argument to make and one we have to make very carefully. Do you is

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sense that if there were a free vote tomorrow in the House of

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Commons, do you think most MPs would think this is still a war

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worth committing troops to? I think what they would think is what they

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would vote for, and that would be to announce David Cameron's

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announcement that combat troops will be all taken out by 2014. I

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think we do that, of course because we are subordinate to the United

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States. Their decision making, as we have heard, is based upon a

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withdrawal then, and of course, other countries like France,

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beginning to say they want to go early. Also, the whole thing was

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endorsed by NATO at the Lisbon conference. 2014 is a post in the

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sand. We are saying the decision is made in Washington. The decision

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about how long British troops are there is Notre Dame I don't know?

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decision is made thatness -- Is not David Cameron? A decision is made.

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For a soldier, is it any easier to conduct a mission if you have some

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abitary end time? You have to have something to go for, and an end

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state. What I would say, this is the argument about blood and

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Treasury. If incidents like today lead to an untimely exit, then we

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are into the arguments that the sacrifice made will be in vain. A

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former professional soldier, and I speak for most serving soldiers

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today, I'm very conscious of someone like Diane who has suffered

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a great loss and all those other people, my view is we have to see

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this through, or give it our best effort, but it is understandable

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that there has to be politically a line in the sand. Keith thing is we

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will never tell where we will be until we get there. You say you

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don't want the sacrifice to be in vain, you, doubtless, share the

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view about seeing it through. Is that made any easier by having a

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withdrawal date? No, no. Ben was deployed in 2006, we have seen the

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mission change to many times, from the original statement, never to be

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a shot fired, a rebuilding mission, to controlling the drugs trade, to

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supporting the Afghan army. To support in education, for women in

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Afghanistan. We have seen the mission change so many times to

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support whoever, or whatever was being discussed at the time. It is

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very difficult to see that a given date, and this will end. What we

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are very interested in is what will be the state of Afghanistan a year

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after that end date, will it be any different. If you take the argument

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that you have to see it through, sometimes on the conditions based

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exit strategy. You have to accept if conditions aren't right you will

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stay. You can't do that if you have said you are going? Precisely. That

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is why the fact that 2014 and that date has now been set pretty well

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in political concrete, meaning that seeing it through, which

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necessarily implies staying on beyond 2014, simply isn't an option.

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I don't think there is a chance now to revisit the 2014 date, we are

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working towards that. The first question you were asking is why are

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we there. It is not enough to explain why we are there, tough

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explain why we leave. That is a bigger question. We need, with

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respect to Newsnight, Newsnight covers this subject very well, but

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there is need for a public conversation with the British

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public about what state we will leave that country in, what type of

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political deal will there be with elements of the Taliban. How many

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force also stay in a training role. We have to have a cross-party

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programme involving charities with a proper grown-up conversation

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about an acceptable state to leave Afghanistan. There needs to be a

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political settlement. It is clear there is not a Nelson Mandela-type

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character in Afghanistan, or even a Gerry Adams or Martin McGuinness-

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type character. How do you imagine history will judge this

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entangledment in Afghanistan, Stuart Tootal? I think they will

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look back and say the intent was right, I have always believed in

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that. The initial concept was wrong, the rebalancing to the right

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direction, with all the complexties and risks and no guarantees, is

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something that we have landed on, arrived at, the right track and

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right direction. It has taken a long time to get there, that is the

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biggest risk. How do you think history will judge this? This

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country has got a very nasty experience coming, when instances

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of mental illness and PTS D come through. I think we will have a

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small portion of a generation who are traumatised, and who are ill

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equipped to deal with the aftermath of this war. That is in this

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country, not in Afghanistan. I think there is a conflaigs in the

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:18:43.:18:43.

minds of many members of the public between Iraq and Afghanistan. There

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was United Nations support and approval, and support and all that

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in Afghanistan. Iraq is a very controversial subject, there was a

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feeling it was illegal, and it involved staying too close to the

:18:56.:18:59.

United States and not exercising sufficient independent judgment

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about where our interests lay. As a result I think Afghanistan has been

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drawn into the general public disillusionment with Iraq. That is

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why any effort to depart from the 2014 date would have enormous

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reprecussions so far as public opinion is concerned. What is your

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verdict about the history? It is too early to say. It is depending

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on the state we leave the country is. Stuart is right about the

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intent and the right purpose of why we got involved, post-9/11 and the

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worries about Al-Qaeda. Unless we leave at 2014 in a stable state,

:19:41.:19:46.

and not threatening our security, and people see the progress been

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made, unless that is irreversible the public will say what is it for.

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There is a wider weapon that says let's not do anything again beyond

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our shores. Some people might conclude we might stay longer?

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don't think that is feasible, the worry after this, for some people,

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a conflict arises, something beyond our shores again, such as Libya.

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There could be an ambivalence of not getting involved again. It is

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not just Afghanistan that will condition decisions in the future,

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we are going through a reduction in the defence capability of the

:20:22.:20:27.

country. It may well be in the future there may be occasions when

:20:27.:20:31.

people might feel motivated to intervene and engage, we won't have

:20:31.:20:35.

the military resources to do so. Oxford the other day, I was

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approached by three attractive young women, who said the only

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reason they switched on Newsnight was to watch Paul Mason, he's so

:20:43.:20:49.

exy, they said. In all respects they seemed perfectly normal. Feast

:20:49.:20:55.

your eyes girls, here he is, the thinking woman's Brad Pitt. In

:20:55.:20:59.

contrast to his usual fare of graphs and gloom, wondering whether

:20:59.:21:03.

there are reasons to be cheerful? hope you told them to get a better

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television or pair of spectacles. think they were serious, Brad?

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that note, keeping the moral tone of the propbl high, as it always is,

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the recovery. Let's talk about it, tomorrow, in the European Union, we

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are about to see, hopefully, some kind of closure on the Greek crisis.

:21:26.:21:30.

We hope the Greeks get their debt swapped and that goes well. That

:21:30.:21:34.

Greece no longer looks like a ticking timebomb that blows up the

:21:34.:21:38.

rest of the European economy. If that is so, attention turns to what

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is happening in America. Let's have a look at the graph. This is never

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a bad sign, never a bad index of what is happening in the US, the

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stock market, the Dow Jones, as you can see the back end of last year

:21:51.:21:54.

and beginning of this year, it has really recovered. This is another

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graph, this is new job claims in the United States, and it is looks

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pretty good having looked pretty awful. Early 2012 we are seeing the

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new unemployed people falling. The US has created nearly two million

:22:14.:22:17.

jobs since the US Federal Reserve intervened. If Europe goes quiet

:22:17.:22:21.

and cold for a bit, there is a chance that the USA and the soft

:22:21.:22:25.

land anything China, could draw the rest of the world into something

:22:25.:22:28.

like a recovery. The question is whether which can be part of it,

:22:28.:22:33.

and whether our role in it can be sustainable. That is why I went to

:22:33.:22:43.
:22:43.:22:43.

Lincoln yesterday to have a look at it. It doesn't look like the

:22:43.:22:48.

throbbing heart of industrial revival, Lincoln can look a lot

:22:48.:22:52.

like gift shop Britain. But the city is home to the people and

:22:52.:22:57.

places that are driving something precious, spectacular economic

:22:57.:23:03.

growth. At this factory they make high-tech bits of metal, bearings

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to go in aircraft landing gear, helicopter rotars and trams. The

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machines are operated 2446 hours a day, because the world -- 24-hours

:23:15.:23:20.

a day because the world can't get enough. Globally people have

:23:21.:23:25.

started spending money again, and aircraft are being purchased.

:23:25.:23:29.

is happening now that wasn't before? There is a confidence and

:23:29.:23:33.

availability of money. We have had significant growth in the last 12

:23:33.:23:39.

months where we have increased output of the order of 30%. From

:23:39.:23:43.

regular running levels of the year previous.

:23:43.:23:47.

In fact, the firm can't grow fast enough, there is a waiting list for

:23:47.:23:54.

the stuff they make. If we had the human capacity to do it, we could

:23:54.:23:57.

grow by 25% immediately. Manufacturing is not the only thing

:23:57.:24:02.

growing, consumer spending edged up again last month, prompting the

:24:02.:24:06.

idea that the worst may be over. Certainly, on the streets of

:24:06.:24:10.

Lincoln, it looks very unlike a recession, that is because the town

:24:10.:24:14.

has things that insulate you against a downturn. Foreign

:24:14.:24:17.

students, farming, tourism, and there is a lot of relatively high-

:24:18.:24:27.
:24:28.:24:28.

paid work. Lincoln is where the German engineering giant, Seimens,

:24:28.:24:33.

makes gas turbines. The company has poured money into this factory,

:24:33.:24:37.

they export nearly everything they make. It is the global recovery

:24:37.:24:41.

driving things. A couple of years ago we were making 35 of these gas

:24:41.:24:46.

turbines a year, this year we will make 81, next year we are looking

:24:46.:24:49.

at whether we can make 100. We are seeing a doubling in the amount of

:24:49.:24:56.

work we are doing, that is going worldwide, exporting to Middle East,

:24:56.:25:01.

Australia, and we are seeing everywhere customers are coming to

:25:01.:25:04.

Lincoln. Because Seimens is global, it can raise finance without

:25:04.:25:08.

worrying about British banks, it has also invested heavily, German-

:25:08.:25:14.

style, in training, it is not held back by a skills shortage. It is

:25:14.:25:18.

driven by a combination of the global economy and the

:25:18.:25:23.

competitiveness of the staff. It is not a UK market, we don't work in

:25:23.:25:32.

the UK predominantly, we export 85% of what we are doing. At the

:25:32.:25:36.

university, where they have just opened a whole near engineering

:25:36.:25:41.

school, paid for, you guessed it, Seimens. They are all too oh aye

:25:41.:25:45.

what's that then ware of the flip side, what what -- aware of what is

:25:45.:25:49.

happening to the flip side. What is happening to the small businesses.

:25:49.:25:55.

The banks are not as interested in small ventures as perhaps they

:25:55.:26:04.

could be, as was agreed through project Merlin. We do get reports

:26:04.:26:08.

by most businesses about constraints in formal finance from

:26:08.:26:12.

banks. We also have a place in places like Lincoln is a

:26:12.:26:15.

significant number of family businesses, generating growth

:26:15.:26:19.

through retained profits, year on year, and do have resources and

:26:19.:26:24.

savings. For the butcher, the baker and cappuccino maker, the recovery

:26:24.:26:29.

is a bit two speed, the question is raises once you get beyond one firm

:26:29.:26:36.

and one city, can it be saend? shows the number of hours worked in

:26:36.:26:41.

manufacturing, it is at the highest levels. Graham Turner was one of

:26:41.:26:46.

the first economists last year to declare the US recovery under way.

:26:46.:26:52.

He thinks the UK data is nowhere near as promising. Despite the

:26:52.:26:56.

stellar performance of some manufacturing firms, there is still

:26:56.:27:05.

a mountain to climb. We have a strong recovery in manufacturing

:27:05.:27:10.

output. We have only recovered half the losses sustained during the

:27:10.:27:17.

downturn of 2008/09. Other countries like Germany have clawed

:27:17.:27:21.

a larger share of the lost output back. We have to focus on that if

:27:21.:27:26.

we want serious rebalancing. We need a much quicker reduction in

:27:26.:27:31.

the trade deficit. We devalue the pound, and yet our trade deficit

:27:31.:27:35.

carried on going up for a good couple of years, it is only now

:27:35.:27:42.

starting to improvment those are the indicators we are looking at,

:27:42.:27:49.

to see if there is a serious restructuring to make the recovery

:27:49.:27:53.

sustainable, like we are seeing in the US. It is this statement that

:27:53.:27:56.

led Vince Cable to say the Government lack as compelling

:27:56.:28:01.

vision of where the industrial strategy is heading. The idea that

:28:01.:28:07.

ignore the shoots are there, but that they are so isolate. If these

:28:07.:28:14.

are the early signs of recovery, the downsides are that the economy

:28:14.:28:17.

shrank during the recession and the Treasury will command money out of

:28:17.:28:22.

it for the next five years. I think it shows where the British economy

:28:22.:28:28.

is exposed to global traditions and new technology, it does better than

:28:28.:28:32.

we expect. But that is no consolation to the pie shop and the

:28:32.:28:37.

school leaver. What non-global, low tech Britain needs, is simply for

:28:37.:28:44.

the credit crunch to be over. Should the Chancellor be singing in

:28:44.:28:50.

the balt and giving us all the stuff about the - bath and giving

:28:50.:28:54.

all the stuff about green shoots of recovery. My guests are here. What

:28:54.:28:58.

does it seem like for you? I feel for some months there is a return

:28:58.:29:02.

of what is called animal spirits amongst entrepeneurs, I think there

:29:02.:29:08.

are signs of confidence. Partly, as Paul says, America is definitely

:29:08.:29:12.

recovering, and generally speaking, Britain follows what they. Do but

:29:12.:29:19.

also because after four years of tough times I think there is

:29:19.:29:26.

inevitable cyclicality about it. How does it feel to you? As it did

:29:26.:29:31.

last year and 2009. That good! we have been getting, Jeremy, are

:29:31.:29:36.

these little spurts of growth, and little spurts of confidence that

:29:36.:29:40.

come up against the buffers of the financial system, which is still

:29:40.:29:48.

broken. We have little spurts of growth and then we go back again.

:29:48.:29:53.

If if you look at the chart about the economy plunging, what happens

:29:53.:29:58.

in the past is it recovers quickly, now it is going up a bit, sideways

:29:58.:30:02.

a bit, and then there. It won't go back up to where it was before, as

:30:02.:30:10.

Graham Turner clearly said. Paul Mason produced several witnesses in

:30:10.:30:13.

the film saying the banks are the problem. Does it feel like that to

:30:13.:30:18.

you as a businessman? I think lack of credit is an issue and will

:30:18.:30:22.

continue to be. They are gradually repairing their balance sheets.

:30:22.:30:29.

There are new banks appearing, I'm on the board of one. There is new

:30:29.:30:32.

capital flowing into the system. Over time it will feed through into

:30:32.:30:36.

industry and help create jobs. is overly optimistic, the fact is

:30:36.:30:40.

the banks are effectively insolvent. We are finding the European Central

:30:40.:30:46.

Bank, for example, is printing money to pump into the banks. They

:30:46.:30:52.

have had a trillion euros since December of cheap money. I'm a

:30:52.:30:56.

small business woman, my bank said to me if I deposit any money with

:30:56.:31:03.

them, I would be lucky to get 0.3%. But if I were to go into an

:31:03.:31:11.

overdraft it would be 28%, on average overdraftings are 20%. How

:31:11.:31:17.

can small businesses cope with that if their overdraft is 28%. The bank

:31:17.:31:20.

is borrowing at 1% from the publicly-backed central banks of

:31:20.:31:30.
:31:30.:31:31.

Europe and Britain. If you are one of the three million without a job

:31:31.:31:34.

it doesn't feel that good. I don't get the sense talking to people on

:31:34.:31:39.

the street that they do sense things are getting better and the

:31:39.:31:43.

clouds are lifting. Do you feel something different? I do, I talk

:31:43.:31:47.

all the time to entrepeneurs and investors. There is, I feel, a

:31:47.:31:53.

sense that costs have been cut and restructuring is done in business,

:31:53.:31:58.

and industry as a whole, has many hundreds of millions to invest, it

:31:58.:32:03.

has an all-time high levels of cash. Gradually companies will deploy

:32:03.:32:07.

that money into new investments, and that, in itself, will drive

:32:07.:32:12.

demand and growth. We can't run the economy on the

:32:12.:32:19.

basis of anecdotes, the fact is, there is a lack of demand out there,

:32:19.:32:23.

these companies are hoarding their cash because they are afraid,

:32:23.:32:26.

because customers are not through the door. They are deeply worried,

:32:26.:32:31.

about the banking system not being fixed yet, the Government insisting

:32:31.:32:35.

on austerity, we have savage austerity in Europe, that is our

:32:35.:32:39.

big market for the exports we saw in Lincoln, for example.

:32:39.:32:45.

Businessmen, rightly, are hoarding that cash, really afraid. So we may

:32:45.:32:49.

hear and story here and there, Paul is right to identify those. That

:32:49.:32:56.

doesn't make up for the fact that the whole economy lacks demand.

:32:56.:33:00.

We will see how it develops, in the short-term we have a budget coming

:33:00.:33:04.

up in a couple of weeks time. What do you think George Osborne ought

:33:04.:33:13.

to do, give us one measure each, or one rhetorical statement he should

:33:13.:33:23.
:33:23.:33:24.

make, or some action he should make. I would have him sharply deregulate

:33:24.:33:28.

for smaller companies. Those that can't afford a professional HR

:33:28.:33:36.

person. I think if it were made easier to hire and fire staff, I

:33:36.:33:39.

think entrepeneurs would be more willing to take on people and that

:33:39.:33:45.

would cut unemployment. I think small businesses should be helped

:33:45.:33:49.

as well, we tax employment and that is good, and make it hard for small

:33:49.:33:53.

businesses to employ. I think we face a bigger problem, I think the

:33:53.:33:59.

Government should be investing in one of the biggest security threats

:33:59.:34:03.

we faced, energy security. Oil prices are rising, it is going up,

:34:03.:34:08.

we will have to rely on the Russians for others for gas in the

:34:08.:34:12.

future. We need to insulate our homes to make them more energy

:34:12.:34:17.

efficient so we can cope with with what will be deep energy insecurity

:34:17.:34:20.

in the future. The Government should lead this, at the moment

:34:21.:34:25.

they are not taking that seriously in the Department of Energy. That

:34:25.:34:28.

would generate jobs for small businesses and construction

:34:28.:34:37.

companies, here and not in China. If you were in America today you

:34:37.:34:43.

wouldn't have been able to hear youself think to young men

:34:43.:34:48.

contesting they will boot Barack Obama out of the White House come

:34:48.:34:55.

November. Super Tuesday,'s bumper crop of Republican speeches failed

:34:55.:34:59.

to rouse anyone. It is only March and plenty of people are sick of

:34:59.:35:08.

the whole thing. Super Tuesday is designed to be

:35:08.:35:12.

super-decisive, we are supposed to, by now, have a pretty firm idea of

:35:12.:35:17.

who will face Barack Obama in November's election. But, at the

:35:17.:35:20.

moment, the safest prediction we can make is, the Republican

:35:20.:35:26.

candidate will have a four-letter, one-syllabel first name, still in

:35:26.:35:34.

the hunt are Mitt, Rick and Newt. Each has attractions to the

:35:34.:35:38.

Republican voters, but each with a downside. The big winner from last

:35:38.:35:44.

night was Mitt Romney, of the ten states up for grabs, he took six,

:35:44.:35:51.

but a narrow win in Ohio, has led to a sense from the pundits that he

:35:52.:35:56.

hasn't done enough to make the job his. He, of course, doesn't agree.

:35:56.:36:01.

We will take your vote, a huge vote in Massachusetts s and take the

:36:01.:36:09.

victory all the way to the whout White House.

:36:09.:36:12.

As front-runner, Mitt Romney gets the most heat, for being a

:36:12.:36:19.

calculating flip-floper. Noi he tells us, trust me, mime he -- now

:36:19.:36:24.

he tells us, trust him he's a conservative. From being a

:36:24.:36:31.

linguist? He speaks French too. it gets worse, being mean to dogs.

:36:31.:36:39.

You took your Irish setter on a 12- hour road trip, tied to the roof of

:36:39.:36:44.

your car, question, what were you thinking. Jo this is completely air

:36:44.:36:49.

tight kennel, mounted on the top of the car, he climbed up there

:36:49.:36:54.

regularly and enjoyed himself. has led to a campaign using

:36:54.:37:01.

pictures of dogs, with the slogan, "I ride inside". He doesn't come

:37:02.:37:07.

across as a regular guy. Pockets of the Midwest don't like Mitt Romney

:37:07.:37:14.

and other areas. He might be able to win the nomination without

:37:14.:37:17.

fixing the problem. Barack Obama had a skim later problem he never

:37:17.:37:23.

fixed. It would be hard to say he would drop out, unless they tell

:37:23.:37:28.

you they have Achilles heels but five open spots in the armour to

:37:28.:37:32.

attack. For the top three this is how it looked before Super Tuesday.

:37:32.:37:37.

Mitt Romney out in the lead. After Super Tuesday, not much has changed,

:37:37.:37:42.

except Mitt Romney is a little further down the road. He is,

:37:42.:37:48.

though, well short of the delegates he will need if he wants to be the

:37:48.:37:52.

nominee. In second place is Rick Santorum, a former Pennsylvania

:37:52.:37:57.

senator who has a neat line in tank tops, and Conservative Christian

:37:57.:38:02.

politics. His would be a crowded White House, seven children, and if

:38:02.:38:10.

he gets there, he will have proved the perceived wisdom wrong, that a

:38:10.:38:14.

social Conservative can't win a majority in America. Newt Gingrich

:38:14.:38:21.

is not running on family values, that is just as well, as he's on

:38:21.:38:25.

thinks third marriage. He was accused with charges of democracy,

:38:25.:38:33.

because at the time he was leading the moral charge against blilt over

:38:33.:38:38.

the Lewinsky affair, he was having an affair of his own. It has never

:38:38.:38:42.

got past him that he would alienate people with his personal story.

:38:42.:38:48.

may not know who will be in the driving seat, and who will be

:38:48.:38:52.

strapped to the roof rack for a month.

:38:52.:38:58.

The big question, has this Republican contest been so fra,, so

:38:58.:39:02.

damaging, that whoever wins is destend to be the loser come

:39:02.:39:07.

November. The current opinion polls all put the Republican hopefuls

:39:07.:39:15.

well behind President Obama. White working-class voters, across the

:39:15.:39:19.

industrial Rust Belt across America, may decide the election. To discuss

:39:19.:39:27.

how it might go are Thomas Frank, author of What's The Matter With

:39:27.:39:31.

Kansas, and Pity The Poor Billionaire. And the writer of The

:39:31.:39:40.

Grand New Party. Gentlemen, Thomas Frank, first off,

:39:40.:39:47.

he is now Mitt Romney the candidate, is he? Pretty much, he will be the

:39:47.:39:56.

Republican nominee. That is my view. Do you think that too? I think he's

:39:56.:40:01.

the most likely winner, yes. Do you think it is possible, either of you,

:40:01.:40:05.

that he can actually get the support of the white working-class,

:40:05.:40:11.

seems to have a lot of trouble doing it? He really doesn't do the

:40:11.:40:17.

populus thing very well. Also, you no -- you know, we have seen Mitt

:40:17.:40:22.

Romney for a number of months, we know his strengths and weaknesses.

:40:22.:40:28.

His biggest weakness by far is that, well, first of all, he loves to

:40:28.:40:32.

boast about how rich he is, and second of all, he had the career

:40:32.:40:42.
:40:42.:40:42.

where he made all the money was at a vepture capital outfit. --

:40:43.:40:47.

venture capital outfit. None will play well with the demographic you

:40:47.:40:50.

mentioned. You are shaking your head? I don't think he likes to

:40:50.:40:54.

boast about it, but it is one of the central parts of his life to

:40:54.:40:58.

being a turn around artist in private equity, he would take

:40:58.:41:02.

failing business enterprises and try to make them viable, in some

:41:02.:41:05.

cases he didn't succeed. That has always been a central proposition

:41:05.:41:10.

in public life, when he ran the Olympics in 2002, and ran for

:41:10.:41:15.

Governor of Massachusetts, later that year. He was advancing himself

:41:15.:41:20.

as one who could fix these very, very thorny problems, because he

:41:20.:41:24.

has done it in his private life. Because he is successful, it is

:41:24.:41:28.

hard for him to talk away from because it is deeply in his

:41:28.:41:32.

biography, I don't think he's boasting, but acknowledging it is a

:41:32.:41:38.

central part of his life. It will be a lightning rod and

:41:38.:41:43.

controversial. It is not obvious that he will fail,'s turning it

:41:43.:41:50.

into strength. We have many weeks to the American election.

:41:50.:41:56.

What about the jibe, that said he looks like the man who fired you?

:41:56.:42:01.

Exactly, that was four years ago when he said that. It sticks, and

:42:01.:42:06.

what I said about Romney boasting about his wealth. It is amusing. It

:42:06.:42:10.

just slips out, the other day he was talking about what kind of car

:42:10.:42:17.

he drove, he mentioned his wife drove not just one Cadillac but two.

:42:17.:42:20.

Somebody asked him about stock car racing, a popular sport in America,

:42:20.:42:26.

he doesn't follow it. He knows several guys who own stock car

:42:26.:42:33.

racing teams. This kind of talk. He wanted to bet one of the other

:42:33.:42:39.

candidates 10,000 -- $10,000 of all other things. This kind of talk

:42:39.:42:43.

slips out, it is who he is and he can't help it, this will be his

:42:43.:42:49.

great witness. You accept he has to appeal to a broader constituency he

:42:49.:42:53.

currently appeals to? That is absolutely right. That is

:42:53.:42:57.

inevitably a process of the way the presidential elections work. You

:42:57.:43:04.

have this long drown out primary process during which core member of

:43:04.:43:07.

the two respective parties are making the determination, they have

:43:07.:43:10.

their maximum leverage at this point. When you think about the

:43:10.:43:13.

folks turning out to party conferences, in Blackpool or

:43:13.:43:16.

Brighton, these are not the people that David Cameron or Ed Milliband

:43:16.:43:20.

are going to be competing for in a general election. Rather, they are,

:43:21.:43:26.

shall we say, the eccentrics, the true believers and those who turn

:43:26.:43:30.

out. In the United States we have a month-long process during which

:43:30.:43:35.

these people, this relatively small universe of primary voters are

:43:35.:43:38.

pressing their advantage and talking about their issues. They

:43:38.:43:42.

want to make sure any presidential candidate will be a true believer,

:43:42.:43:47.

so they can be relied on to not deBrae them, while in office. That

:43:48.:43:52.

is the job for political activists on the left or right in this

:43:52.:43:57.

country. That is why they are pushed in one day or another. It is

:43:57.:44:00.

a liability, but you pith it once you get to the general election,

:44:00.:44:05.

and that is where we are likely to see it as well. Something has

:44:05.:44:12.

happened to the Republican Party since the last election? Absolutely.

:44:12.:44:16.

Look at Mitt Romney himself, four years ago he was at least trying to

:44:16.:44:22.

sell himself as the Conservative alternative to John McCain. Now

:44:22.:44:27.

he's the guy everyone wants the tie to Conservative is. He's not even a

:44:27.:44:31.

Conservative. What I would describe what is going on in America, this

:44:31.:44:35.

is especially the case for the Conservative movement. The search

:44:36.:44:41.

for awe then sis at the, this is a group of voters in a political

:44:41.:44:45.

movement that has attached its idea to the idea of authenticity for

:44:45.:44:53.

years and years. Now they have got this going on, you have Newt

:44:53.:44:56.

Gingrich saying he's the real candidate. And Mitt Romney who just

:44:56.:45:04.

can't seem to make the sale. understand the way the Republican

:45:04.:45:07.

Party's shifts have been perceived to much of the blik, certainly to

:45:07.:45:10.

much of the public -- public, certainly to much of the public in

:45:10.:45:14.

the UK. On the substance of policy issues, the Republican Party has

:45:14.:45:19.

moved to the centre, on tax, health policies. There is a new consensus

:45:19.:45:26.

about the set of ideas that are very Praguementic. In health there

:45:27.:45:33.

is a set of ideas endorsed by Democrats during the late 1990s,

:45:33.:45:38.

yet the Democratic party has moved away from had a and the others have

:45:38.:45:41.

moved towards. When you look at the substance of issues there is a

:45:41.:45:46.

shift to the centre. In terms of rhetoric, there is a sharper,

:45:46.:45:51.

harder edged rhetoric, that is because it is something you see on

:45:51.:45:57.

both sides of the political divides in. United States. That is all from

:45:57.:46:01.

Newsnight tonight. Kirsty will be in the chair tomorrow night. Lucky

:46:01.:46:06.

old you. old you.

:46:06.:46:16.
:46:16.:46:34.

A colder night tonight, last night bringing a chillyo start to

:46:35.:46:38.

Thursday. Most of us, -- chilly start to Thursday. Most of us

:46:38.:46:42.

starting off with sunshine. Showers to the North West, wet weather

:46:42.:46:45.

throughout the day across Scotland. A dry and bright day, the cloud

:46:45.:46:51.

will increase a little bit to the east of the Pennines. In the weak

:46:52.:46:55.

sunshine temperatures reaching double figures. After that chilly

:46:55.:46:58.

start, because of the winds being lighter and they have been through

:46:58.:47:04.

the day today, it will feel warmer. South-West England in the same boat,

:47:04.:47:09.

a sunny start, but dry and bright, as it it is across most of Wales. A

:47:09.:47:13.

grey afternoon on the west coast. Breezy, in Northern Ireland, but

:47:13.:47:20.

overall it is dry, if rather cloudy, a hint of brightness in hilly

:47:20.:47:25.

places. Northern Ireland keeps the thick cloud and outbreaks of rain,

:47:25.:47:30.

it should stay dry. Haen of us will be dry on Friday, a weather -- many

:47:30.:47:34.

of us will be dry on Friday. A weather front will bring rain.

:47:34.:47:38.

Temperatures could be higher, despite it being cloudy. Central

:47:38.:47:41.

and oorn parts of England, most likely to see sunshine during

:47:41.:47:47.

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