Browse content similar to 07/03/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Six healthy young men cut off in the prime of their lives, executing | :00:10. | :00:15. | |
a task which would any way have been terminated on the orders of | :00:15. | :00:19. | |
politicians in a couple of years time. In death they are rightly | :00:19. | :00:23. | |
honoured, how can belief be maintained in a mission, that seems | :00:23. | :00:26. | |
as hazardous as it ever was. We will discuss it all with | :00:26. | :00:28. | |
politicians, a soldier and a relative. | :00:28. | :00:34. | |
At last some economic news, which isn't gloomy, out in the Wols, | :00:34. | :00:40. | |
something is stirring, and yes, it looks like something distinctly | :00:40. | :00:45. | |
like green shoots. A couple of years ago we were making 35 of | :00:45. | :00:52. | |
these gas turbines, next year it is 81, and next year 100. He has made | :00:52. | :00:55. | |
himself immensely rich, why can't Mitt Romney make himself appealing | :00:55. | :00:59. | |
to the people he needs if he's ever to make good on his bomb bast. | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
Tonight we are counting up the delegates for the convention, it | :01:03. | :01:07. | |
looks good, and we are counting down the days to November, that | :01:07. | :01:17. | |
:01:17. | :01:19. | ||
looks even better. It is a very Mel collie milestone, | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
over 400 young people have been killed in Afghanistan, for what. | :01:23. | :01:28. | |
The six soldiers of the Yorkshire and Duke of Lancaster regiments | :01:28. | :01:32. | |
were on what is described as a routine patrol in an armoured | :01:32. | :01:35. | |
personnel carrier when they were blown up. British troops have been | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
in the country for over a decade, we are told the last combat | :01:39. | :01:42. | |
soldiers will return at the end of the year after next. Before we talk | :01:42. | :01:51. | |
about the mission, our defence editor has his assessment. At times | :01:51. | :01:55. | |
like this, people ask what is this for. More than 400 have died, and | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
thousands have had their lives irrevokably changed through injury. | :02:00. | :02:04. | |
The years become intangible, and it is hard to maintain public support | :02:04. | :02:10. | |
for the mission. Dan Jarvis commanded a group of paratroopers | :02:10. | :02:15. | |
in Afghanistan, and is now an MP. think it is hard, the events of the | :02:15. | :02:21. | |
last 24 hours, will inevitably contribute towards a fatigue for | :02:21. | :02:25. | |
our mission in Afghanistan. My constituents continue to question | :02:25. | :02:29. | |
why it is we are still involved in Afghanistan, ten years after we | :02:29. | :02:37. | |
first went there. A Government of whatever colour has a job to | :02:37. | :02:41. | |
articulate that stragically it is in this country's interest to | :02:41. | :02:47. | |
continue with the mission, to work towards a point at which we can | :02:47. | :02:51. | |
develop the capabilities of the Afghanistan force, to withdraw in | :02:51. | :02:53. | |
good order. The latest loss was caused by a | :02:53. | :02:59. | |
destruction of a Warrior infantry fighting vehicle. It is a heavily | :02:59. | :03:04. | |
armoured machine, which suggests a huge improvised bomb. The image of | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
destroyed hardware is one of great sensitivity in the war of | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
perceptions. The wreck was surrounded with other vehicles to | :03:12. | :03:16. | |
conceal it, and recovered at night to a British base. Commanders | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
insisted the loss wouldn't affect their day-to-day mission. | :03:20. | :03:26. | |
You feel it in your gut, it is a sickening blow. But one thing I | :03:26. | :03:31. | |
have learned over the years that these young soldiers are incred | :03:31. | :03:35. | |
plea tough and resilient. They -- incredibly tough and resilient. | :03:35. | :03:41. | |
They grieve and it is right they do, but it makes their resolve even | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
stronger. Today's incident was a shock, but runs counter to the | :03:43. | :03:48. | |
trend. The number of British troops lost in combat has actually fallen | :03:48. | :03:57. | |
steeply. Going from 108 in 2009, or 109 in 2010, to 46 last year, and | :03:57. | :04:01. | |
ten so far this year, including today's loss. That is due to new | :04:01. | :04:04. | |
tactics, the concentration of force in a smaller part of Helmand, as | :04:04. | :04:09. | |
well as handing over some of the most difficult districts, like | :04:09. | :04:13. | |
Sangin in the north, to the Americans. The problem for Britain | :04:13. | :04:16. | |
is British forces are making real progress where they are operating. | :04:16. | :04:20. | |
They are winning all the tactical battles and the battle for hearts | :04:20. | :04:24. | |
and minds where they are. As a country and alliance we are letting | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
the war slip away. We can't control what happens in Pakistan and the | :04:28. | :04:31. | |
way the Americans think about the war. The whole Afghanistan | :04:31. | :04:35. | |
enterprise is out of our control. All we can do is the best we can in | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
the areas we operate. They are doing a good job, but ultimately we | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
are win the battles in probably a war we will find difficult to come | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
away with anything other than a score draw. For the Prime Minister, | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
who has sought to extricate Britain from Afghanistan, as quickly as is | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
decently possible, today's loss required a statement of why young | :04:53. | :05:03. | |
men and women are still risking their lives there. Our mission in | :05:03. | :05:08. | |
Afghanistan does remain an issue of national security. We are | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
preventing a safe haven for Al- Qaeda where they might plan attacks | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
on allies. Our job is to equip the forces of Afghanistan with the | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
capacity and equipment to take care of their own capacity without the | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
need for foreign troops on the soil. But it is precisely in this area | :05:26. | :05:32. | |
that the last few weeks have raised renewed concerns in NATO. | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
Demonstrations triggered by the burning of Korans have shown the | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
mutual incomprehension between westerners and Afghans. They have | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
also cost the lives of NATO soldiers, who were trying to | :05:44. | :05:49. | |
prepare Afghan forces to take over. It is the failure of the Afghan | :05:49. | :05:54. | |
side in governance, general competence, or those incidents | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
where Afghan troops have murdered western soldiers who were trying to | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
help them, that have caused the greatest concern among those | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
planning Britain's exit. As for the record of this country's forces, | :06:07. | :06:14. | |
the military view tends to be, that after a shaky and costly start, | :06:14. | :06:17. | |
they have mastered operating in Helmand, and are doing their best | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
to move gracefully into the background. The reality is, we have | :06:21. | :06:25. | |
to have a incredibly close and carefully managed relationship with | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
the Afghan authorities. Let's be honest, that comes with a degree of | :06:29. | :06:36. | |
risk. Because the main enemy of the people of Afghanistan is not the | :06:36. | :06:38. | |
Taliban or Al-Qaeda, it is corruption. We need to do | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
everything we can to root out corruption where it exists in | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
Afghanistan. That is much easier to say than do. Increasingly the | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
weight of the western mission in Afghanistan is in the hands of | :06:51. | :06:54. | |
Afghans. NATO accepts that, but senior people are nervous about how | :06:54. | :06:58. | |
they will perform, hoping the sacrifices, like Britains today, | :06:58. | :07:03. | |
might -- Britain's today, might not have been in vain. | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
Our political editor and our diplomatic editor are both here now. | :07:07. | :07:14. | |
Does the Government sense the public mood is shifting? | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
Government has known for a while that the public mood is hostile, | :07:18. | :07:23. | |
that is why we have the deadline of 2015. They are moving towards that | :07:23. | :07:27. | |
next week, next week we have Cameron and Obama meeting and | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
timetables will be on the agenda. When it was last a big issue, David | :07:30. | :07:34. | |
Cameron had a slight fight with the generals and they talked about | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
wanting two fighting seasons. They got last summer, a fighting season | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
in Afghanistan. They get the next summer, this is this coming summer, | :07:42. | :07:48. | |
from the autumn we will begin to see the beginning of the drawdown. | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
What is fixed is they have to be out by 2014/15. What is less fixed | :07:52. | :07:59. | |
is the speed. There has been some discussion that by late 2013, this | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
was suggested by the US Defence Secretary, it is the American | :08:03. | :08:07. | |
leadership, or the faltering of it that is so critical here. With Iraq | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
America stayed to the end, Britain wanted out, two-and-a-half years | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
sooner, with Afghanistan we have seen other countries fall by the | :08:15. | :08:19. | |
way side. Canada going into a non- combat role, the Netherlands | :08:19. | :08:23. | |
withdrawing, France announcing, after four men were killed training | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
the Afghans that they are going sooner. Britain does seem to be | :08:26. | :08:31. | |
hanging on until the end. What is the strategy? The strategy is | :08:31. | :08:35. | |
Karzai was meeting Cameron in the UK in January, the strategy is as | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
much support as possible. They think the military strategy, the | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
sad six deaths, withstanding, is actually going OK. I was in | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
Afghanistan with the Prime Minister in the last summer, and at the time | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
they felt that the local troops were really not good enough. Those | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
same people are now saying they are getting better. The thing they are | :08:54. | :09:00. | |
very worried about is the political process and Hamid Karzai. Indeed, | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
the other great thing, that is making this so hard, this final | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
period, is the attitude of Pakistan. The civilian Government barely in | :09:07. | :09:13. | |
control, elements of the ISI seemingly want to make NATO's exit | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
as bloody and as unpleasant as possible, and doing things to | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
destablise the situation. It is a very difficult strategic picture. | :09:21. | :09:26. | |
To discuss the British experience in Afghanistan and what it is all | :09:26. | :09:31. | |
for, we are joined by Diane Dernie, whose son was severely injured in | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
Afghanistan, which Stuart Tootal who command add battalion in | :09:35. | :09:40. | |
Helmand, Menzies Campbell from the Liberal Democrats, and Labour's Jim | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
Murphy, the Shadow Defence Secretary. Your son is not one of | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
these 400 people who have lost their lives, but he was, he lost | :09:47. | :09:55. | |
his legs, he was severely brain- damageed. Your family have paid a | :09:55. | :09:59. | |
high price for this engagment, when you hear the news today what do you | :09:59. | :10:08. | |
think? We think we are the lucky ones. No matter what, we have got | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
our loved ones back. When we talk about the end of the mission, what | :10:11. | :10:17. | |
people have to understand is for these boys and girls coming back, | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
their war is only just starting. They will come back to a country, | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
particularly if they are wounded, physically and mentally, that is | :10:23. | :10:29. | |
not prepared for their return. An NHS that is not prepared, an MoD | :10:29. | :10:36. | |
that is not prepared. Employment, housing, these boys have got a | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
fight when they come home, make no mistake. Do you think troops should | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
still be in Afghanistan? I don't want to see one more boy injured, | :10:45. | :10:51. | |
one more family suffer. I don't want to see their sacrifice being | :10:51. | :10:57. | |
in vain. This is one instance where I'm very, very glad it is not on my | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
conscience, this decision. If you were still a commander in | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
Afghanistan, Stuart Tootal, what would you tell your men about why | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
they were there and why this was a sacrifice that was worth making? | :11:08. | :11:12. | |
First of all, they would understand the mission from the get-go. We | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
would be really clear on that. When a unit takes this level of | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
casualties. Remember the loss of one life is tragic and has an | :11:21. | :11:27. | |
impact. There is a shock, but actually there is also a very clear | :11:27. | :11:32. | |
determination to see a mission through, that is what professional | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
soldiers and servicemen and women do. While I take away nothing from | :11:36. | :11:42. | |
the tragedy of what happened today, our troops will be committee and as | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
focused. While a commanding officer will say all those things, his | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
soldiers will naturally respond to that. What is the mission? To leave | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
Afghanistan in a stable enough condition, where it can maintain | :11:54. | :12:00. | |
and sustain its own security, without the need for the direct | :12:00. | :12:06. | |
contribution of NATO troops. Murphy, it was your Government that | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
initially committed British troops there, I dare say you didn't | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
imagine them there ten years on. Do you understand what the mission is | :12:13. | :12:19. | |
now? I think Stuart has summarised it fairly well. As someone who has | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
served in Afghanistan. It is to make sure the country has a degree | :12:22. | :12:27. | |
of stability, so it has its own defence and police force, so itself | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
can't become an ungoverned space to allow terrorists and others to | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
attack our country. On a day like today, and other days, where we | :12:35. | :12:41. | |
have heard about Ben being so horrifically injured, I accept | :12:41. | :12:44. | |
entirely it is so much more difficult to make an argument, that | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
is so much more complicated than previous conflicts, the Falklands | :12:48. | :12:52. | |
and the Second World War. It is more complicated and more nuanced | :12:52. | :12:57. | |
as an argument. If we weren't there, that country would be jeopardising | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
the safety of citizens here and elsewhere. It is a difficult | :13:00. | :13:05. | |
argument to make and one we have to make very carefully. Do you is | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
sense that if there were a free vote tomorrow in the House of | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
Commons, do you think most MPs would think this is still a war | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
worth committing troops to? I think what they would think is what they | :13:15. | :13:20. | |
would vote for, and that would be to announce David Cameron's | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
announcement that combat troops will be all taken out by 2014. I | :13:23. | :13:28. | |
think we do that, of course because we are subordinate to the United | :13:28. | :13:32. | |
States. Their decision making, as we have heard, is based upon a | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
withdrawal then, and of course, other countries like France, | :13:36. | :13:43. | |
beginning to say they want to go early. Also, the whole thing was | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
endorsed by NATO at the Lisbon conference. 2014 is a post in the | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
sand. We are saying the decision is made in Washington. The decision | :13:51. | :13:55. | |
about how long British troops are there is Notre Dame I don't know? | :13:55. | :14:02. | |
decision is made thatness -- Is not David Cameron? A decision is made. | :14:02. | :14:07. | |
For a soldier, is it any easier to conduct a mission if you have some | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
abitary end time? You have to have something to go for, and an end | :14:11. | :14:14. | |
state. What I would say, this is the argument about blood and | :14:14. | :14:24. | |
:14:24. | :14:29. | ||
Treasury. If incidents like today lead to an untimely exit, then we | :14:29. | :14:36. | |
are into the arguments that the sacrifice made will be in vain. A | :14:36. | :14:40. | |
former professional soldier, and I speak for most serving soldiers | :14:40. | :14:43. | |
today, I'm very conscious of someone like Diane who has suffered | :14:43. | :14:47. | |
a great loss and all those other people, my view is we have to see | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
this through, or give it our best effort, but it is understandable | :14:52. | :14:58. | |
that there has to be politically a line in the sand. Keith thing is we | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
will never tell where we will be until we get there. You say you | :15:02. | :15:06. | |
don't want the sacrifice to be in vain, you, doubtless, share the | :15:06. | :15:12. | |
view about seeing it through. Is that made any easier by having a | :15:12. | :15:18. | |
withdrawal date? No, no. Ben was deployed in 2006, we have seen the | :15:19. | :15:23. | |
mission change to many times, from the original statement, never to be | :15:23. | :15:30. | |
a shot fired, a rebuilding mission, to controlling the drugs trade, to | :15:30. | :15:35. | |
supporting the Afghan army. To support in education, for women in | :15:35. | :15:39. | |
Afghanistan. We have seen the mission change so many times to | :15:39. | :15:43. | |
support whoever, or whatever was being discussed at the time. It is | :15:44. | :15:49. | |
very difficult to see that a given date, and this will end. What we | :15:49. | :15:53. | |
are very interested in is what will be the state of Afghanistan a year | :15:53. | :15:58. | |
after that end date, will it be any different. If you take the argument | :15:58. | :16:05. | |
that you have to see it through, sometimes on the conditions based | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
exit strategy. You have to accept if conditions aren't right you will | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
stay. You can't do that if you have said you are going? Precisely. That | :16:14. | :16:20. | |
is why the fact that 2014 and that date has now been set pretty well | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
in political concrete, meaning that seeing it through, which | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
necessarily implies staying on beyond 2014, simply isn't an option. | :16:28. | :16:34. | |
I don't think there is a chance now to revisit the 2014 date, we are | :16:34. | :16:37. | |
working towards that. The first question you were asking is why are | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
we there. It is not enough to explain why we are there, tough | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
explain why we leave. That is a bigger question. We need, with | :16:45. | :16:50. | |
respect to Newsnight, Newsnight covers this subject very well, but | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
there is need for a public conversation with the British | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
public about what state we will leave that country in, what type of | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
political deal will there be with elements of the Taliban. How many | :17:01. | :17:09. | |
force also stay in a training role. We have to have a cross-party | :17:09. | :17:12. | |
programme involving charities with a proper grown-up conversation | :17:12. | :17:17. | |
about an acceptable state to leave Afghanistan. There needs to be a | :17:17. | :17:21. | |
political settlement. It is clear there is not a Nelson Mandela-type | :17:21. | :17:28. | |
character in Afghanistan, or even a Gerry Adams or Martin McGuinness- | :17:28. | :17:33. | |
type character. How do you imagine history will judge this | :17:33. | :17:36. | |
entangledment in Afghanistan, Stuart Tootal? I think they will | :17:36. | :17:39. | |
look back and say the intent was right, I have always believed in | :17:39. | :17:43. | |
that. The initial concept was wrong, the rebalancing to the right | :17:43. | :17:48. | |
direction, with all the complexties and risks and no guarantees, is | :17:48. | :17:54. | |
something that we have landed on, arrived at, the right track and | :17:54. | :18:00. | |
right direction. It has taken a long time to get there, that is the | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
biggest risk. How do you think history will judge this? This | :18:03. | :18:10. | |
country has got a very nasty experience coming, when instances | :18:11. | :18:18. | |
of mental illness and PTS D come through. I think we will have a | :18:18. | :18:22. | |
small portion of a generation who are traumatised, and who are ill | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
equipped to deal with the aftermath of this war. That is in this | :18:26. | :18:33. | |
country, not in Afghanistan. I think there is a conflaigs in the | :18:33. | :18:43. | |
:18:43. | :18:43. | ||
minds of many members of the public between Iraq and Afghanistan. There | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
was United Nations support and approval, and support and all that | :18:48. | :18:52. | |
in Afghanistan. Iraq is a very controversial subject, there was a | :18:52. | :18:56. | |
feeling it was illegal, and it involved staying too close to the | :18:56. | :18:59. | |
United States and not exercising sufficient independent judgment | :18:59. | :19:05. | |
about where our interests lay. As a result I think Afghanistan has been | :19:05. | :19:10. | |
drawn into the general public disillusionment with Iraq. That is | :19:10. | :19:18. | |
why any effort to depart from the 2014 date would have enormous | :19:18. | :19:22. | |
reprecussions so far as public opinion is concerned. What is your | :19:22. | :19:26. | |
verdict about the history? It is too early to say. It is depending | :19:26. | :19:30. | |
on the state we leave the country is. Stuart is right about the | :19:30. | :19:36. | |
intent and the right purpose of why we got involved, post-9/11 and the | :19:36. | :19:41. | |
worries about Al-Qaeda. Unless we leave at 2014 in a stable state, | :19:41. | :19:46. | |
and not threatening our security, and people see the progress been | :19:46. | :19:51. | |
made, unless that is irreversible the public will say what is it for. | :19:51. | :19:55. | |
There is a wider weapon that says let's not do anything again beyond | :19:55. | :20:01. | |
our shores. Some people might conclude we might stay longer? | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
don't think that is feasible, the worry after this, for some people, | :20:05. | :20:10. | |
a conflict arises, something beyond our shores again, such as Libya. | :20:10. | :20:16. | |
There could be an ambivalence of not getting involved again. It is | :20:16. | :20:19. | |
not just Afghanistan that will condition decisions in the future, | :20:19. | :20:21. | |
we are going through a reduction in the defence capability of the | :20:22. | :20:27. | |
country. It may well be in the future there may be occasions when | :20:27. | :20:31. | |
people might feel motivated to intervene and engage, we won't have | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
the military resources to do so. Oxford the other day, I was | :20:35. | :20:38. | |
approached by three attractive young women, who said the only | :20:38. | :20:43. | |
reason they switched on Newsnight was to watch Paul Mason, he's so | :20:43. | :20:49. | |
exy, they said. In all respects they seemed perfectly normal. Feast | :20:49. | :20:55. | |
your eyes girls, here he is, the thinking woman's Brad Pitt. In | :20:55. | :20:59. | |
contrast to his usual fare of graphs and gloom, wondering whether | :20:59. | :21:03. | |
there are reasons to be cheerful? hope you told them to get a better | :21:03. | :21:10. | |
television or pair of spectacles. think they were serious, Brad? | :21:10. | :21:15. | |
that note, keeping the moral tone of the propbl high, as it always is, | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
the recovery. Let's talk about it, tomorrow, in the European Union, we | :21:18. | :21:25. | |
are about to see, hopefully, some kind of closure on the Greek crisis. | :21:26. | :21:30. | |
We hope the Greeks get their debt swapped and that goes well. That | :21:30. | :21:34. | |
Greece no longer looks like a ticking timebomb that blows up the | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
rest of the European economy. If that is so, attention turns to what | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
is happening in America. Let's have a look at the graph. This is never | :21:42. | :21:47. | |
a bad sign, never a bad index of what is happening in the US, the | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
stock market, the Dow Jones, as you can see the back end of last year | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
and beginning of this year, it has really recovered. This is another | :21:55. | :22:03. | |
graph, this is new job claims in the United States, and it is looks | :22:03. | :22:08. | |
pretty good having looked pretty awful. Early 2012 we are seeing the | :22:08. | :22:14. | |
new unemployed people falling. The US has created nearly two million | :22:14. | :22:17. | |
jobs since the US Federal Reserve intervened. If Europe goes quiet | :22:17. | :22:21. | |
and cold for a bit, there is a chance that the USA and the soft | :22:21. | :22:25. | |
land anything China, could draw the rest of the world into something | :22:25. | :22:28. | |
like a recovery. The question is whether which can be part of it, | :22:28. | :22:33. | |
and whether our role in it can be sustainable. That is why I went to | :22:33. | :22:43. | |
:22:43. | :22:43. | ||
Lincoln yesterday to have a look at it. It doesn't look like the | :22:43. | :22:48. | |
throbbing heart of industrial revival, Lincoln can look a lot | :22:48. | :22:52. | |
like gift shop Britain. But the city is home to the people and | :22:52. | :22:57. | |
places that are driving something precious, spectacular economic | :22:57. | :23:03. | |
growth. At this factory they make high-tech bits of metal, bearings | :23:03. | :23:10. | |
to go in aircraft landing gear, helicopter rotars and trams. The | :23:10. | :23:15. | |
machines are operated 2446 hours a day, because the world -- 24-hours | :23:15. | :23:20. | |
a day because the world can't get enough. Globally people have | :23:21. | :23:25. | |
started spending money again, and aircraft are being purchased. | :23:25. | :23:29. | |
is happening now that wasn't before? There is a confidence and | :23:29. | :23:33. | |
availability of money. We have had significant growth in the last 12 | :23:33. | :23:39. | |
months where we have increased output of the order of 30%. From | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
regular running levels of the year previous. | :23:43. | :23:47. | |
In fact, the firm can't grow fast enough, there is a waiting list for | :23:47. | :23:54. | |
the stuff they make. If we had the human capacity to do it, we could | :23:54. | :23:57. | |
grow by 25% immediately. Manufacturing is not the only thing | :23:57. | :24:02. | |
growing, consumer spending edged up again last month, prompting the | :24:02. | :24:06. | |
idea that the worst may be over. Certainly, on the streets of | :24:06. | :24:10. | |
Lincoln, it looks very unlike a recession, that is because the town | :24:10. | :24:14. | |
has things that insulate you against a downturn. Foreign | :24:14. | :24:17. | |
students, farming, tourism, and there is a lot of relatively high- | :24:18. | :24:27. | |
:24:28. | :24:28. | ||
paid work. Lincoln is where the German engineering giant, Seimens, | :24:28. | :24:33. | |
makes gas turbines. The company has poured money into this factory, | :24:33. | :24:37. | |
they export nearly everything they make. It is the global recovery | :24:37. | :24:41. | |
driving things. A couple of years ago we were making 35 of these gas | :24:41. | :24:46. | |
turbines a year, this year we will make 81, next year we are looking | :24:46. | :24:49. | |
at whether we can make 100. We are seeing a doubling in the amount of | :24:49. | :24:56. | |
work we are doing, that is going worldwide, exporting to Middle East, | :24:56. | :25:01. | |
Australia, and we are seeing everywhere customers are coming to | :25:01. | :25:04. | |
Lincoln. Because Seimens is global, it can raise finance without | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
worrying about British banks, it has also invested heavily, German- | :25:08. | :25:14. | |
style, in training, it is not held back by a skills shortage. It is | :25:14. | :25:18. | |
driven by a combination of the global economy and the | :25:18. | :25:23. | |
competitiveness of the staff. It is not a UK market, we don't work in | :25:23. | :25:32. | |
the UK predominantly, we export 85% of what we are doing. At the | :25:32. | :25:36. | |
university, where they have just opened a whole near engineering | :25:36. | :25:41. | |
school, paid for, you guessed it, Seimens. They are all too oh aye | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
what's that then ware of the flip side, what what -- aware of what is | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
happening to the flip side. What is happening to the small businesses. | :25:49. | :25:55. | |
The banks are not as interested in small ventures as perhaps they | :25:55. | :26:04. | |
could be, as was agreed through project Merlin. We do get reports | :26:04. | :26:08. | |
by most businesses about constraints in formal finance from | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
banks. We also have a place in places like Lincoln is a | :26:12. | :26:15. | |
significant number of family businesses, generating growth | :26:15. | :26:19. | |
through retained profits, year on year, and do have resources and | :26:19. | :26:24. | |
savings. For the butcher, the baker and cappuccino maker, the recovery | :26:24. | :26:29. | |
is a bit two speed, the question is raises once you get beyond one firm | :26:29. | :26:36. | |
and one city, can it be saend? shows the number of hours worked in | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
manufacturing, it is at the highest levels. Graham Turner was one of | :26:41. | :26:46. | |
the first economists last year to declare the US recovery under way. | :26:46. | :26:52. | |
He thinks the UK data is nowhere near as promising. Despite the | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
stellar performance of some manufacturing firms, there is still | :26:56. | :27:05. | |
a mountain to climb. We have a strong recovery in manufacturing | :27:05. | :27:10. | |
output. We have only recovered half the losses sustained during the | :27:10. | :27:17. | |
downturn of 2008/09. Other countries like Germany have clawed | :27:17. | :27:21. | |
a larger share of the lost output back. We have to focus on that if | :27:21. | :27:26. | |
we want serious rebalancing. We need a much quicker reduction in | :27:26. | :27:31. | |
the trade deficit. We devalue the pound, and yet our trade deficit | :27:31. | :27:35. | |
carried on going up for a good couple of years, it is only now | :27:35. | :27:42. | |
starting to improvment those are the indicators we are looking at, | :27:42. | :27:49. | |
to see if there is a serious restructuring to make the recovery | :27:49. | :27:53. | |
sustainable, like we are seeing in the US. It is this statement that | :27:53. | :27:56. | |
led Vince Cable to say the Government lack as compelling | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
vision of where the industrial strategy is heading. The idea that | :28:01. | :28:07. | |
ignore the shoots are there, but that they are so isolate. If these | :28:07. | :28:14. | |
are the early signs of recovery, the downsides are that the economy | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
shrank during the recession and the Treasury will command money out of | :28:17. | :28:22. | |
it for the next five years. I think it shows where the British economy | :28:22. | :28:28. | |
is exposed to global traditions and new technology, it does better than | :28:28. | :28:32. | |
we expect. But that is no consolation to the pie shop and the | :28:32. | :28:37. | |
school leaver. What non-global, low tech Britain needs, is simply for | :28:37. | :28:44. | |
the credit crunch to be over. Should the Chancellor be singing in | :28:44. | :28:50. | |
the balt and giving us all the stuff about the - bath and giving | :28:50. | :28:54. | |
all the stuff about green shoots of recovery. My guests are here. What | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
does it seem like for you? I feel for some months there is a return | :28:58. | :29:02. | |
of what is called animal spirits amongst entrepeneurs, I think there | :29:02. | :29:08. | |
are signs of confidence. Partly, as Paul says, America is definitely | :29:08. | :29:12. | |
recovering, and generally speaking, Britain follows what they. Do but | :29:12. | :29:19. | |
also because after four years of tough times I think there is | :29:19. | :29:26. | |
inevitable cyclicality about it. How does it feel to you? As it did | :29:26. | :29:31. | |
last year and 2009. That good! we have been getting, Jeremy, are | :29:31. | :29:36. | |
these little spurts of growth, and little spurts of confidence that | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
come up against the buffers of the financial system, which is still | :29:40. | :29:48. | |
broken. We have little spurts of growth and then we go back again. | :29:48. | :29:53. | |
If if you look at the chart about the economy plunging, what happens | :29:53. | :29:58. | |
in the past is it recovers quickly, now it is going up a bit, sideways | :29:58. | :30:02. | |
a bit, and then there. It won't go back up to where it was before, as | :30:02. | :30:10. | |
Graham Turner clearly said. Paul Mason produced several witnesses in | :30:10. | :30:13. | |
the film saying the banks are the problem. Does it feel like that to | :30:13. | :30:18. | |
you as a businessman? I think lack of credit is an issue and will | :30:18. | :30:22. | |
continue to be. They are gradually repairing their balance sheets. | :30:22. | :30:29. | |
There are new banks appearing, I'm on the board of one. There is new | :30:29. | :30:32. | |
capital flowing into the system. Over time it will feed through into | :30:32. | :30:36. | |
industry and help create jobs. is overly optimistic, the fact is | :30:36. | :30:40. | |
the banks are effectively insolvent. We are finding the European Central | :30:40. | :30:46. | |
Bank, for example, is printing money to pump into the banks. They | :30:46. | :30:52. | |
have had a trillion euros since December of cheap money. I'm a | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
small business woman, my bank said to me if I deposit any money with | :30:56. | :31:03. | |
them, I would be lucky to get 0.3%. But if I were to go into an | :31:03. | :31:11. | |
overdraft it would be 28%, on average overdraftings are 20%. How | :31:11. | :31:17. | |
can small businesses cope with that if their overdraft is 28%. The bank | :31:17. | :31:20. | |
is borrowing at 1% from the publicly-backed central banks of | :31:20. | :31:30. | |
:31:30. | :31:31. | ||
Europe and Britain. If you are one of the three million without a job | :31:31. | :31:34. | |
it doesn't feel that good. I don't get the sense talking to people on | :31:34. | :31:39. | |
the street that they do sense things are getting better and the | :31:39. | :31:43. | |
clouds are lifting. Do you feel something different? I do, I talk | :31:43. | :31:47. | |
all the time to entrepeneurs and investors. There is, I feel, a | :31:47. | :31:53. | |
sense that costs have been cut and restructuring is done in business, | :31:53. | :31:58. | |
and industry as a whole, has many hundreds of millions to invest, it | :31:58. | :32:03. | |
has an all-time high levels of cash. Gradually companies will deploy | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
that money into new investments, and that, in itself, will drive | :32:07. | :32:12. | |
demand and growth. We can't run the economy on the | :32:12. | :32:19. | |
basis of anecdotes, the fact is, there is a lack of demand out there, | :32:19. | :32:23. | |
these companies are hoarding their cash because they are afraid, | :32:23. | :32:26. | |
because customers are not through the door. They are deeply worried, | :32:26. | :32:31. | |
about the banking system not being fixed yet, the Government insisting | :32:31. | :32:35. | |
on austerity, we have savage austerity in Europe, that is our | :32:35. | :32:39. | |
big market for the exports we saw in Lincoln, for example. | :32:39. | :32:45. | |
Businessmen, rightly, are hoarding that cash, really afraid. So we may | :32:45. | :32:49. | |
hear and story here and there, Paul is right to identify those. That | :32:49. | :32:56. | |
doesn't make up for the fact that the whole economy lacks demand. | :32:56. | :33:00. | |
We will see how it develops, in the short-term we have a budget coming | :33:00. | :33:04. | |
up in a couple of weeks time. What do you think George Osborne ought | :33:04. | :33:13. | |
to do, give us one measure each, or one rhetorical statement he should | :33:13. | :33:23. | |
:33:23. | :33:24. | ||
make, or some action he should make. I would have him sharply deregulate | :33:24. | :33:28. | |
for smaller companies. Those that can't afford a professional HR | :33:28. | :33:36. | |
person. I think if it were made easier to hire and fire staff, I | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
think entrepeneurs would be more willing to take on people and that | :33:39. | :33:45. | |
would cut unemployment. I think small businesses should be helped | :33:45. | :33:49. | |
as well, we tax employment and that is good, and make it hard for small | :33:49. | :33:53. | |
businesses to employ. I think we face a bigger problem, I think the | :33:53. | :33:59. | |
Government should be investing in one of the biggest security threats | :33:59. | :34:03. | |
we faced, energy security. Oil prices are rising, it is going up, | :34:03. | :34:08. | |
we will have to rely on the Russians for others for gas in the | :34:08. | :34:12. | |
future. We need to insulate our homes to make them more energy | :34:12. | :34:17. | |
efficient so we can cope with with what will be deep energy insecurity | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
in the future. The Government should lead this, at the moment | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
they are not taking that seriously in the Department of Energy. That | :34:25. | :34:28. | |
would generate jobs for small businesses and construction | :34:28. | :34:37. | |
companies, here and not in China. If you were in America today you | :34:37. | :34:43. | |
wouldn't have been able to hear youself think to young men | :34:43. | :34:48. | |
contesting they will boot Barack Obama out of the White House come | :34:48. | :34:55. | |
November. Super Tuesday,'s bumper crop of Republican speeches failed | :34:55. | :34:59. | |
to rouse anyone. It is only March and plenty of people are sick of | :34:59. | :35:08. | |
the whole thing. Super Tuesday is designed to be | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
super-decisive, we are supposed to, by now, have a pretty firm idea of | :35:12. | :35:17. | |
who will face Barack Obama in November's election. But, at the | :35:17. | :35:20. | |
moment, the safest prediction we can make is, the Republican | :35:20. | :35:26. | |
candidate will have a four-letter, one-syllabel first name, still in | :35:26. | :35:34. | |
the hunt are Mitt, Rick and Newt. Each has attractions to the | :35:34. | :35:38. | |
Republican voters, but each with a downside. The big winner from last | :35:38. | :35:44. | |
night was Mitt Romney, of the ten states up for grabs, he took six, | :35:44. | :35:51. | |
but a narrow win in Ohio, has led to a sense from the pundits that he | :35:52. | :35:56. | |
hasn't done enough to make the job his. He, of course, doesn't agree. | :35:56. | :36:01. | |
We will take your vote, a huge vote in Massachusetts s and take the | :36:01. | :36:09. | |
victory all the way to the whout White House. | :36:09. | :36:12. | |
As front-runner, Mitt Romney gets the most heat, for being a | :36:12. | :36:19. | |
calculating flip-floper. Noi he tells us, trust me, mime he -- now | :36:19. | :36:24. | |
he tells us, trust him he's a conservative. From being a | :36:24. | :36:31. | |
linguist? He speaks French too. it gets worse, being mean to dogs. | :36:31. | :36:39. | |
You took your Irish setter on a 12- hour road trip, tied to the roof of | :36:39. | :36:44. | |
your car, question, what were you thinking. Jo this is completely air | :36:44. | :36:49. | |
tight kennel, mounted on the top of the car, he climbed up there | :36:49. | :36:54. | |
regularly and enjoyed himself. has led to a campaign using | :36:54. | :37:01. | |
pictures of dogs, with the slogan, "I ride inside". He doesn't come | :37:02. | :37:07. | |
across as a regular guy. Pockets of the Midwest don't like Mitt Romney | :37:07. | :37:14. | |
and other areas. He might be able to win the nomination without | :37:14. | :37:17. | |
fixing the problem. Barack Obama had a skim later problem he never | :37:17. | :37:23. | |
fixed. It would be hard to say he would drop out, unless they tell | :37:23. | :37:28. | |
you they have Achilles heels but five open spots in the armour to | :37:28. | :37:32. | |
attack. For the top three this is how it looked before Super Tuesday. | :37:32. | :37:37. | |
Mitt Romney out in the lead. After Super Tuesday, not much has changed, | :37:37. | :37:42. | |
except Mitt Romney is a little further down the road. He is, | :37:42. | :37:48. | |
though, well short of the delegates he will need if he wants to be the | :37:48. | :37:52. | |
nominee. In second place is Rick Santorum, a former Pennsylvania | :37:52. | :37:57. | |
senator who has a neat line in tank tops, and Conservative Christian | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
politics. His would be a crowded White House, seven children, and if | :38:02. | :38:10. | |
he gets there, he will have proved the perceived wisdom wrong, that a | :38:10. | :38:14. | |
social Conservative can't win a majority in America. Newt Gingrich | :38:14. | :38:21. | |
is not running on family values, that is just as well, as he's on | :38:21. | :38:25. | |
thinks third marriage. He was accused with charges of democracy, | :38:25. | :38:33. | |
because at the time he was leading the moral charge against blilt over | :38:33. | :38:38. | |
the Lewinsky affair, he was having an affair of his own. It has never | :38:38. | :38:42. | |
got past him that he would alienate people with his personal story. | :38:42. | :38:48. | |
may not know who will be in the driving seat, and who will be | :38:48. | :38:52. | |
strapped to the roof rack for a month. | :38:52. | :38:58. | |
The big question, has this Republican contest been so fra,, so | :38:58. | :39:02. | |
damaging, that whoever wins is destend to be the loser come | :39:02. | :39:07. | |
November. The current opinion polls all put the Republican hopefuls | :39:07. | :39:15. | |
well behind President Obama. White working-class voters, across the | :39:15. | :39:19. | |
industrial Rust Belt across America, may decide the election. To discuss | :39:19. | :39:27. | |
how it might go are Thomas Frank, author of What's The Matter With | :39:27. | :39:31. | |
Kansas, and Pity The Poor Billionaire. And the writer of The | :39:31. | :39:40. | |
Grand New Party. Gentlemen, Thomas Frank, first off, | :39:40. | :39:47. | |
he is now Mitt Romney the candidate, is he? Pretty much, he will be the | :39:47. | :39:56. | |
Republican nominee. That is my view. Do you think that too? I think he's | :39:56. | :40:01. | |
the most likely winner, yes. Do you think it is possible, either of you, | :40:01. | :40:05. | |
that he can actually get the support of the white working-class, | :40:05. | :40:11. | |
seems to have a lot of trouble doing it? He really doesn't do the | :40:11. | :40:17. | |
populus thing very well. Also, you no -- you know, we have seen Mitt | :40:17. | :40:22. | |
Romney for a number of months, we know his strengths and weaknesses. | :40:22. | :40:28. | |
His biggest weakness by far is that, well, first of all, he loves to | :40:28. | :40:32. | |
boast about how rich he is, and second of all, he had the career | :40:32. | :40:42. | |
:40:42. | :40:42. | ||
where he made all the money was at a vepture capital outfit. -- | :40:43. | :40:47. | |
venture capital outfit. None will play well with the demographic you | :40:47. | :40:50. | |
mentioned. You are shaking your head? I don't think he likes to | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
boast about it, but it is one of the central parts of his life to | :40:54. | :40:58. | |
being a turn around artist in private equity, he would take | :40:58. | :41:02. | |
failing business enterprises and try to make them viable, in some | :41:02. | :41:05. | |
cases he didn't succeed. That has always been a central proposition | :41:05. | :41:10. | |
in public life, when he ran the Olympics in 2002, and ran for | :41:10. | :41:15. | |
Governor of Massachusetts, later that year. He was advancing himself | :41:15. | :41:20. | |
as one who could fix these very, very thorny problems, because he | :41:20. | :41:24. | |
has done it in his private life. Because he is successful, it is | :41:24. | :41:28. | |
hard for him to talk away from because it is deeply in his | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
biography, I don't think he's boasting, but acknowledging it is a | :41:32. | :41:38. | |
central part of his life. It will be a lightning rod and | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
controversial. It is not obvious that he will fail,'s turning it | :41:43. | :41:50. | |
into strength. We have many weeks to the American election. | :41:50. | :41:56. | |
What about the jibe, that said he looks like the man who fired you? | :41:56. | :42:01. | |
Exactly, that was four years ago when he said that. It sticks, and | :42:01. | :42:06. | |
what I said about Romney boasting about his wealth. It is amusing. It | :42:06. | :42:10. | |
just slips out, the other day he was talking about what kind of car | :42:10. | :42:17. | |
he drove, he mentioned his wife drove not just one Cadillac but two. | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
Somebody asked him about stock car racing, a popular sport in America, | :42:20. | :42:26. | |
he doesn't follow it. He knows several guys who own stock car | :42:26. | :42:33. | |
racing teams. This kind of talk. He wanted to bet one of the other | :42:33. | :42:39. | |
candidates 10,000 -- $10,000 of all other things. This kind of talk | :42:39. | :42:43. | |
slips out, it is who he is and he can't help it, this will be his | :42:43. | :42:49. | |
great witness. You accept he has to appeal to a broader constituency he | :42:49. | :42:53. | |
currently appeals to? That is absolutely right. That is | :42:53. | :42:57. | |
inevitably a process of the way the presidential elections work. You | :42:57. | :43:04. | |
have this long drown out primary process during which core member of | :43:04. | :43:07. | |
the two respective parties are making the determination, they have | :43:07. | :43:10. | |
their maximum leverage at this point. When you think about the | :43:10. | :43:13. | |
folks turning out to party conferences, in Blackpool or | :43:13. | :43:16. | |
Brighton, these are not the people that David Cameron or Ed Milliband | :43:16. | :43:20. | |
are going to be competing for in a general election. Rather, they are, | :43:21. | :43:26. | |
shall we say, the eccentrics, the true believers and those who turn | :43:26. | :43:30. | |
out. In the United States we have a month-long process during which | :43:30. | :43:35. | |
these people, this relatively small universe of primary voters are | :43:35. | :43:38. | |
pressing their advantage and talking about their issues. They | :43:38. | :43:42. | |
want to make sure any presidential candidate will be a true believer, | :43:42. | :43:47. | |
so they can be relied on to not deBrae them, while in office. That | :43:48. | :43:52. | |
is the job for political activists on the left or right in this | :43:52. | :43:57. | |
country. That is why they are pushed in one day or another. It is | :43:57. | :44:00. | |
a liability, but you pith it once you get to the general election, | :44:00. | :44:05. | |
and that is where we are likely to see it as well. Something has | :44:05. | :44:12. | |
happened to the Republican Party since the last election? Absolutely. | :44:12. | :44:16. | |
Look at Mitt Romney himself, four years ago he was at least trying to | :44:16. | :44:22. | |
sell himself as the Conservative alternative to John McCain. Now | :44:22. | :44:27. | |
he's the guy everyone wants the tie to Conservative is. He's not even a | :44:27. | :44:31. | |
Conservative. What I would describe what is going on in America, this | :44:31. | :44:35. | |
is especially the case for the Conservative movement. The search | :44:36. | :44:41. | |
for awe then sis at the, this is a group of voters in a political | :44:41. | :44:45. | |
movement that has attached its idea to the idea of authenticity for | :44:45. | :44:53. | |
years and years. Now they have got this going on, you have Newt | :44:53. | :44:56. | |
Gingrich saying he's the real candidate. And Mitt Romney who just | :44:56. | :45:04. | |
can't seem to make the sale. understand the way the Republican | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
Party's shifts have been perceived to much of the blik, certainly to | :45:07. | :45:10. | |
much of the public -- public, certainly to much of the public in | :45:10. | :45:14. | |
the UK. On the substance of policy issues, the Republican Party has | :45:14. | :45:19. | |
moved to the centre, on tax, health policies. There is a new consensus | :45:19. | :45:26. | |
about the set of ideas that are very Praguementic. In health there | :45:27. | :45:33. | |
is a set of ideas endorsed by Democrats during the late 1990s, | :45:33. | :45:38. | |
yet the Democratic party has moved away from had a and the others have | :45:38. | :45:41. | |
moved towards. When you look at the substance of issues there is a | :45:41. | :45:46. | |
shift to the centre. In terms of rhetoric, there is a sharper, | :45:46. | :45:51. | |
harder edged rhetoric, that is because it is something you see on | :45:51. | :45:57. | |
both sides of the political divides in. United States. That is all from | :45:57. | :46:01. | |
Newsnight tonight. Kirsty will be in the chair tomorrow night. Lucky | :46:01. | :46:06. | |
old you. old you. | :46:06. | :46:16. | |
:46:16. | :46:34. | ||
A colder night tonight, last night bringing a chillyo start to | :46:35. | :46:38. | |
Thursday. Most of us, -- chilly start to Thursday. Most of us | :46:38. | :46:42. | |
starting off with sunshine. Showers to the North West, wet weather | :46:42. | :46:45. | |
throughout the day across Scotland. A dry and bright day, the cloud | :46:45. | :46:51. | |
will increase a little bit to the east of the Pennines. In the weak | :46:52. | :46:55. | |
sunshine temperatures reaching double figures. After that chilly | :46:55. | :46:58. | |
start, because of the winds being lighter and they have been through | :46:58. | :47:04. | |
the day today, it will feel warmer. South-West England in the same boat, | :47:04. | :47:09. | |
a sunny start, but dry and bright, as it it is across most of Wales. A | :47:09. | :47:13. | |
grey afternoon on the west coast. Breezy, in Northern Ireland, but | :47:13. | :47:20. | |
overall it is dry, if rather cloudy, a hint of brightness in hilly | :47:20. | :47:25. | |
places. Northern Ireland keeps the thick cloud and outbreaks of rain, | :47:25. | :47:30. | |
it should stay dry. Haen of us will be dry on Friday, a weather -- many | :47:30. | :47:34. | |
of us will be dry on Friday. A weather front will bring rain. | :47:34. | :47:38. | |
Temperatures could be higher, despite it being cloudy. Central | :47:38. | :47:41. | |
and oorn parts of England, most likely to see sunshine during | :47:41. | :47:47. |