12/12/2012 Newsnight


Outside Europe. How might Britain fare if it left the European Union? Jeremy Paxman talks to Mayor of London Boris Johnson and other guests.

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It's December 12th, 2020 eight years from now, Britain has left


the European Union, at least, that's what increasing numbers of


us seem to want. Some time very soon, David Cameron is going to


have to tell us What If he our destiny in Europe to be. Will we be


allowed a vote on the subject? Tonight we explore whether if we


quit we would be throwing off shackles or crippling ourselves.


With testimony and argument from those on both sides of the debate.


We will hear from Paris and the author, Irvine Welsh in Edinburgh.


What might the future be like, the Mayor of London has his own ideas.


What we want to do is end the misery and mistrust, and stop


everybody blaming us for not sharing the zeal of the


eurofederates. We don't share that zeal. We don't have any ambition to


pool British sovereignty and create this single state, we don't want to


do that, give us a new relationship. You stop blaming us for being the


backmarkers, we stop moaning, and we have a new treaty.


Latest opinion polls seem to suggest that nearly three-quarters


of us may want to leave the European Union, or to have a


different sort of relationship with it. Some time in the very near


future, the Prime Minister is expected to announce that we will


be allowed a vote in a referendum on whether to stay in, or get out.


So, that's what we are exploring tonight. These people, our own


viable destin -- our only viable destiny is part of the European


Union project, to these, we have nothing to lose but chains. Quickly,


what is your position, what do you think if we decide to leave? It is


a dangerous and cold environment we are in. Prosperity we will not have


inward investmentors coming into Britain, we won't -- investors


coming into Britain, and we won't be able to export leasely. We are


not part of a regional block, we are an isolated country. We are cut


off from the source of peace and stability in Europe. You think it


is a Promised Land, don't you? will go on doing business with


European countries companies as we do now, but smaller percentages.


Firstly, the European Union is heading for a disaster, and the


customs free we are trapped in, we will be able to negotiate our own


deals, the future for Britain should be global, not European.


run a global company? I try to. The biggest advertising company in the


world, isn't it. What do you think it will be? I would be worried in


2020, limited access to 500 million, and access to a $17 trillion dollar


economy. Limited access to exports and financial services company,


apart from advertising agencies and the like. We will probably still be


renegotiating bilateral trade agreements in 2020, eight years on.


And last, but not least, we will probably have a diminished


political significance. So, I worry about it in all those context, and


from the point of view of somebody trying to run a multi national


company, I'm extremely worried about lack of access. You run a big


financial house. Yes. Why do you take a contrary view? If I can put


it simply. If we weren't in, we could actually enjoy the benefit of


free trade. Which, ironically, we were supposed to have got from a


Common Market, but we don't, with the remainder of the world. How do


you think about it? A lot of it depends on the deal that Britain


gets with the rest of Europe. There is an assumption here, that you


just show up in Brussels, in a few years time, with a list of demands


and you pick and choose, we will comply with these EU rules, but not


those. That deal is not available, if it was available to Britain, it


would have to be available to all other countries, and a single


market would unravel. So, I think there is a choice between in or out,


and if Britain is out, like Martin said, limited access, and very


importantly, the countries that Britain wants to trade with, China,


India, they are not natural free traders. They open their markets


because the juggernaut of the European Union comes along and says


you get access to our markets. Britain doesn't matter here.


are Norwegian, and Norway is outside the EU, you think even that


is too close? Yes, we are in the EU agreement, which is the single


market. The European economic agreement? It is the single market,


and we think that is too much, for us. What do you think, supposing


Britain joined you, which is probably the best we could hope for,


that we would be in some sort of arrangement, you are shaking your


head, you can explore that later. We are a big market place for


Europe, we trade a massive deficit for these countries, �45 billion a


year. I think in 2020 Britain will be a member of the European Free


Trade Association. That would be good. We will explore that in depth


shortly a referendum will reduce our complicated feelings about the


European Union, to a simple binary choice, in or out. So, back to the


future. We have asked our Economics Editor, Paul Mason, to sketch out


the possible consequences of each choice, first off, how leaving the


EU might be good for you, by the year 2020.


Here's the scenario, in 2015, in a referendum, Britain votes to leave


the European Union. Under the Lisbon Treaty, a two-year


transition process begins. Our MEPs leave the parliament, and


Britain's EU Commissioner stand down. By the summer of 2017, the


transition is complete, Britain is out of the single market, the


Common Agricultural Policy, the Common Fisheries Policy, the


European Court of Justice. Blue flags disappear from Britain's


beaches. But what then? It is December 12th, 2020, here is the


news. The Office for Budget Responsibility today confirmed that


the for the third year in a row, Britain is growing faster than at


any time since the Blair era. GDP growth stood at 4%, but the


Chancellor said inflation remained unacceptably high. Predicting what


Britain's future might look like, if we left the EU, is difficult,


because there is no authoritative research. But, if we did leave, and


growth picked up, what might have gone right to make that happen?


Over a period of time, we would benefit, because we could have


freer trade with the rest of the world, lower food prices, we could


wind down some of the renewables, lower electricity prices, fewer


directives and regulation, more small businesses would come back.


We wouldn't have all these problems of people coming from Europe and


wanting our welfare benefit, and to use the NHS. In all these ways,


Britain would benefit. Britain is a net importer from the European


Union, running a trade deficit with the EU last year. That should make


it possible to do a trade deal, one option would be to do what Norway z


and remain part of the European Economic Area. But in this, more


radical scenario, the UK secures a favourable bilateral trade deal,


modelled on Switzerland. It quickly signs new bilateral deals with key


markets set to experience high growth, Brazil, China, India and


Russia Some analysts claim European


regulations cost business �19 billion a year. In this scenario


these are scrapped, the UK would choose which social legislation it


wanted to keep, for example, the Working Time Directive, or the


agency workers directive, which have been controversial here.


In this scenario, agricultural subsidies, �3.8 billion are phased


out. And Britain's �8 billion net transfer to the EU ends. And there


is free movement of labour in and out of the EU is cancelled, there


would likely be a work force affect, and it -- effect, and it might be


positive. Unemployment is at an all-time low, as manufacturing


employment is rising, and as European migrant workers leave. The


number of EU citizens living in the UK, which peaked at two million in


2012, has halved. Most coffee bars and fast food stores are now 90%


staffed by UK nationals. Financial services account for about 10% of


our GDP now, but in our future scenario, if things went right for


Britain, outside Europe, the City of London could benefit, as Europe


regulates, home mojises, clamps down, London could effectively


become an off-shore centre, a giant Singapore. The prospects for


Britain in the 21st century, if you like, as a global nation, not a


European-focused nation, as a global nation, are fabulous. That


is really because the kind of English-speaking world in


particular, I think, will do extremely well in the 21st century,


Canada, Australia, America, India. We should plug into that.


All scenarios are speculative, and this best-case scenario, the


assumption is globalisation continues. That might be


overoptimistic, but some do dream of a booming city, in a booming


Britain, outside the EU for good. These three are apostles of


withdrawal, reasoned you? Take that as a compliment. It may have been


intended that way, who can say. That was a very narrow view that


piece. What would Britain feel like outside the EU? I think our


democracy would be regenerated. When we have general elections now,


we debate schools and hospitals, because there is no point


discussing business regulation, all of those things are now decided by


European law. There is almost nothing the British Government or


parliament can do about these things. We would suddenly have


furious debates on how we managed industry, how we dealt with our


renewable energy targets. We would be in charge of these things. And


democracy would benefit, more people would vote in general


elections, we would be in charge of our own house again.


It's hard to believe that we have been more regulated if we are


outside. We might feel a bit freer in that regard. If you look at


those wonderful things where you look at the 246 words in the


Gettysburg address, and the 10,000 words on the policy of eggs in the


EU, I wouldn't imagine we would be subject to more regulation, which


is not what we want? We regulate ourselves more than the Europeans


do. We gold plate our regulation. We wouldn't have anything to gold


plate. You will have your shout in a second or two. What do you think


it would be like? I think it would be a proud and independent nation


outside the EU and and play a proper role on the world scene. The


EU is only 27 countries, there are 180 countries in the world. We have


growing markets f we want to talk economy, in Asia, where Britain


will be able to do business. We will look at that in a moment or


two. Let's look at something else, we have heard how it might be on


the sun lit uplands, supposing there was another possibility,


supposing it didn't go right when we left the European Union.


Here's the scenario again, in 2015 the UK votes to leave the EU, by


2017, following a fractious process of boycotts and treaty disputes it


is out. This time it goes badly. They are calling it Black Monday,


the British Aerospace factory is to close with a loss of 5,000 jobs.


The move came as Airbus, based in Toulouse, said the end of called


fri,-free cross-border manufacturing, has -- friction-free,


cross-border manufacturing has made this factory uneconomic. With


doubts over the future of Nissan, an urgent debate is scheduled in


parliament. About half of all the goods we export end up in Europe,


and much of that trade is dependant on the absence of friction, within


cross-border manufacturing processes. If Britain fail to


negotiate a decent trade agreement with Europe, that could be at risk.


As this graph shows, the proportion of UK trade beyond the EU has grown,


steadily. But this rebalancing has taken ten years to achieve, and


pushing it further could be hard. Even if we ended up in a situation


where growth is really looking up, and things look rosy in 2020, we


would probably still have been better off if we had stayed in,


particularly because tide is turning in our direction. The EU is


now with the reforms because of the eurocrisis, entering service


liberalisation territory, more and more people use English as a


language. Exactly at a time when Britain's liberal influence is


finally opening up this single market to its true potential, it


would be foolhardy to leave, and partially lock ourselves out of it,


when we could be benefiting completely from this. There was


chaos at all Britain's airports, as well as in Portsmouth and


Southampton, as Britains returning from Spain raced to reach the 1st


of January deadline, set by the Spanish Government. If we cancelled


the free movement of labour between here and the EU, other countries


might retaliate. There are 400,000 Brit living in Spain, and in the


worst case scenario, fry-ups and Guinness on the Costa del Sol,


could be for holiday makers only. If somebody that agrees strongly


with free movement of labour, I think it will have a net negative


impact. Some of the very highly- talented people coming to the UK,


most recently in the software industry, will stop coming. This


will be a quid pro quo arrangement, it is not as if we could ask the


Poles to leave, and the Brits working in Germany and France will


be allowed to statement this will be something that will damage us in


two ways. Suppose the global conditions change, suppose the


world deglobalises, then, there is a danger that Britain gets crunched,


between the much bigger trading blocks of Asia, the Americas, and


Europe theself, and even City would find it hard to -- the City would


find it hard to survive that. The EU has already turned nasty Against


Switzerland, forcing it to abandon its secret banking practices. If


Britain lost the battle with Frankfurt or Paris, it might not


look so good for the City. One's bound to ask, why, if this is


such a wonderful institution, opinion seems to be turning against


it in this country? I think that's because people have been fed a diet


of stories, such as we get from the other side. But, actually, Europe


has made us prosperous, it has brought prosperity to us and the


rest of the continent. I worry that in 2020, we would find that the


Americans wouldn't be interested in us, they would be interested in


Europe, the Chinese wouldn't be interested in you, they would be


interested in Europe. Inward investors would no longer want to


invest in us, they would invest in Europe. We would be lonely and


poorer. I think the time something very interesting, the transition


period, we would be out in 2017, precisely the wrong time, that is


probably precisely the time that western Europe will see some sort


of recovery. It will be difficult, tough slaving until then, but it


will come back. And France, Italy, Spain and Germany will be leading a


revival in GDP in Europe. Do you find this scaremongering a bit


pathetic? There is just too much uncertainty. The one thing that I


don't quite understand, why do people here believe that the


European Union is holding Britain back, but they are looking up to a


country such as Germany, which is doing well at the moment, which is


also in the European Union, and they manage to export, not twice as


much to China as Britain, not three-times, not four-times, but


probably six-times as much. Despite having to carry most of southern


Europe? And despite being in the euro and having all the same


regulations under social legislation. If you make that


thought experiment, how much freer or better would Britain be better


off, would there really be no regulation in this country. Would


people be want to go work 100 hours a week, no health and safety


regulation. What do you mean no health and safety regulation, we


will have home-grown health and safety regulation? How exactly will


that be different from the European rules that are now being worked out


between all the European countries. We would have chosen them ourselves,


instead of letting some other nationality choose them? Then,


every time you want to export something to the continent, you


have to go through a safety certificatation process, because


you are not going to import anything from Bangladesh that isn't


tested. That is the same, if we have to export goods to any other


part of the world. We have to conform with their markets. The


important thing to remember is this, Paul Mason's figures were wrong,


half our trade is not with Europe. Because of the Rotterdam effect, if


we transshift shuft that shows the trade figure. The true figure is


38%. I'm not suggesting that 38% of our overseas market isn't important,


it is important, but it is a declining part of our overseas


business. The eurozone is contracting, large parts of the


European economy, and we find ourselves as the sixth-biggest


economy in the world, forbidden from making. Europe won't continue


contracting forever. Nothing lasts forever. There could be a


drafplatic bust in the eurozone in the next five years, you can't deny


that. But there are markets growing in the next five years, and we are


forbidden for bilateral trading. have more leverage as a �500


million market with �17 trillion of GBP. It gives you the ability to


negotiate those bilateral agreements. Switzerland have more


bilateral agreements than we do on their own. We will introduce some


specific witness, we have also been joined by Sir David Tang, who owns


a number of successful businesses in China and the UK, he's CEO of


ByBox Business. Stuart Miller a businessman who is here, your ByBox,


I'm sorry, I'm joined from Edinburgh by the writer, Irvine


Welsh. If we rid ourselves of this great bogeyman of the European


Union, what do you think it would do to us Irvine Welsh? I don't


think it would do that much on the basis of what I have heard today.


The argument seems to be constructed on the neo- liberal


defence of the elites, whether in Brussels or Westminster. I think


people, middle-class people, who are struggling with debt, and


working-class people who are struggling to find jobs or having


their pay and conditions constantly eroded, and the poor people who are


just struggling to get by, are going to be massively underinspired


by this debate. It just seems to be kind of, the advocacy of one set of


self-serving elites against another. Broaden it out then? Well, I mean,


there is so many different scenario, the fact that when you are trying


to talk about constitutional arrangements, and look at how that


pans out economically. We have no accord here, and basically people


don't know. It is all conjecture and speculation. Everybody knows


that essentially what happens economically is sometimes very


little to do with membership of these kind of institutions. You can


be Greece or Iceland, it doesn't really make that much odds. It is


all about what happens in the global economy. Let's take your


first point there. When he says that big business, of the kind that


you two represent, sold us a pup on Europe, he's right, isn't he?


don't think so. I don't think so at all. Small businesses benefit


hugely, every worker in this country benefits from the


additional employment and growth you get. Why do they keep


complaining about regulation then? Because businessmen always complain


about regulation, they will complain about regulation if


Britain has sole control of it. is true that there is excessive


regulation. You want us to join the euro? It is true that there is a


negative result of that. But the ability to deal with it inside the


group. It is nonsense to suggest that it is not. To be able to deal


with it inside the ten is the way to go, not outside the ten. It is


to be inside arguing your base, instead of being on the outside.


You have a greater faith in our ability to pluns people. I have a


great faith in negotiating something that makes sense. Your


business is small, isn't it, has it worked for you, the European Union?


It is a bit clunky. I have to come back on the point about it being


successful for smaller companies. Us expanding into Europe. How big


is your company? We employ 350 people in five or six countries.


This year we have launched in Tel Aviv and Toulouse, it was just as


difficult in both territories. There is something very wrong in


that. It should be much easier from my perspective to launch new


offices and businesses in an EU member-state, than one that isn't


part of the EU. I get the fact it is difficult, these aren't easy


problems to fix, it is things like local taxation. What is the problem


with the EU? If you think about every state having local tax regime,


I understand why, we can't move down the fact of an integrated


fiscal platform, that is far too complicated and it couldn't work.


There has to be an easy answer to the question, if I open an office


in France, how can I submit an invoice, it can't be that


complicated. But it is. Landing the conversation right in the heart of


a UK entrepeneur, trying to expand across Europe, it should be


friction-free and easier. In 2012 outside you will customs forms and


VAT forms. You make it sound like it is simply filling forms in, it


is not as easy as that. Opening offices, directors responsibilities


in different countries, complicated legal exposure. People watching it


think I might be moaning about some form filling, this has some teeth,


you get it wrong, and you get fined. That is not a free market.


firing people in France as a business. I have operated three


businesses in France, every time I have suggested any kind of


downseizing my financial director has turned pale. There is a


completely different set of labour laws operating under there, which


are clearly not business-positive. You must view the treatment of


labour, without the safeguards that the European Union imposes, with


some disquiet, don't you, after leaving? I don't think you can in


practice say this European Union is this kind of, you know. The


European Union is a neo-liberal organisation too. It is increase


league, the whole point of the European Union since the treaty of


Rome is to be expansive, is to be, there hasn't been one architect of


European integration who has said that's enough integration. That is


an issue. People have the right to challenge any constitutional


arrangements, they have the right to challenge any kind of power


block. Whether it's Westminster, whether it's Brussels, they have


the right to think about the constitutional arrangements that


benefit them. But, the whole kind of pardigm that we are in now, we


have had 30 years of neo-liberals in this country, to think that the


European Union has managed to save working-class and middle-class


people from the effects of that, is very, very erroneous. The only


thing that we are saying is that people would be reduced to an even


kind of worst state if we were outside the European Union. Again,


possibly not. Do you agree with that, Nigel Farage? When you talk


about working-class people, one of the biggest concerns out there is


about jobs. Whilst free movement of people has worked, when we had


northern European countries in the European Union. To have extended


our borders, to the whole of Eastern Europe, as we have done


since 2004, has meant a massive oversupply in the unskilled markets.


Which has meant that many households have members of the


family unemployed which wouldn't have happened. Withdrawal means an


end to European integration, calling a spade a spade? It means a


total end to European integration. That means an end to the people


coming in to give vitality to the creative industries and industries.


We use work permits, we don't have a total open-door. We have had


massive oversupply in the unskilled labour supply, that is an


irresponsible. My grandparents wouldn't have got into the country.


And my father. You are better at central planning, you know five


years ahead what these small nimble businesses in the heart of London


need, you issue the right work permits and make sure people around


the world know that these immigration permits are available


but others aren't. This is very complicated. You are so proud of


your flexible labour market and you want to micromanage it. What I know


is on the 1st of January 2014, we are opening our social security and


welfare system up to millions of people from Romania and Bulgaria,


and I don't think that is good for working families in this country.


It was said this was a neo-liberal organisation, the European Union is


based on idealism, it is an idealism we don't find particularly


comfortable in this country. It is about peace and working together.


Why do we do it then? It helps economic growth and business. The


underlying reason was to keep the peace between France and Germany.


Why is it so unpopular? Because Brussels is always used as the fall


guy. It has gone beyond peace between France and Germany.


Everything that goes wrong it is Brussels. We haven't had an


extensive and detailed debate about it yet. We may well do if we go


into a referendum phase. Have a and meaningful debate as opposed to


something else. One of the arguments is that by being within


the European Union this country makes itself open to all sorts of


inward investment from Asian and other countries, the merging


economies, and Brazil and Russia, India and China. It also, because


people like the idea of access to the single market, is that true?


I think I hear all these politicians, big business talking


about the European Union, Britain, as if the businesses don't matter.


Not a single mention has been made about what it is that underlies the


business, that people want to do. Whether it is trade, or whether it


is investment, whether it is the product, or the services. I mean,


Germany does very good because the Mercedes Benz car is damn good F


Britain made good things, and provided good services, China would


buy it. And China will invest in it. Already China does quite well with


Britain. It has, for example, on the London Stock Exchange, I think,


eight listed companies, worth about �16 billion. 43 smaller quoted


companies on AIM worth about �3.5 billion. People underestimate the


language, �300 -- 300 million people in China are learning


English. And also, they have a history through Hong Kong, which is


possibly one of the greatest free zones, as far as a free market is


concerned, about how China will get out. Britain should do much more in


Hong Kong. Let me just say one more thing. The question, whether the UK


is in or out of Europe, I think is very, going to be very low on


agenda for any businessman. I was precisely going to ask you, do they


care? You predicted what I was going to say. And the answer is no.


You look at the car industry, the Aerospace industry, and the


financial industry, they do care. The point about the Briks, the next


11, is valid, we haven't penetrated those markets. We have sent an


expedition to Brazil, it is not in the top 11 markets, they have


already exceeded the UK in their markets, they play better football


too. Why did we buy Rover? Because it was being run down, they saw the


opportunity to create that band and the technology, and bring it back


to China and replicate it, and sell millions of cars. You are right, we


have to do both. We have to focus on a massive European, western


European market, which at the moment is in recession, but will


come out of recession, that is one thing. We also have to build our


training positions in the Brazil- Russia-India-China. We are not


allowed to. Can I just add one other very important thing. One


very important thing. How do we manage to get a third of our


business there. The euro, the Chinese regard as extremely


dangerous, they simply don't understand or can predict where it


is going to go. The sterling is not as great a currency, purpose, but


there is much more certainty. And already the British Government is


doing quite a lot in terms of trying to help the currency to


become convertible. More than anybody else. Britain is doing


quite well. And so the question whether it is in or out, for me is


irrelevant. The Norwegian experience, how much do you suffer


from being outside the European Union? I don't think we suffer at


all. And to be honest. You can't compare, you are an oil-dependant


economy, and Britain is 12-times bigger than Norway, you have masses


amounts of oil. It is the same as Switzerland, it is the fallacy of


the people here. Norway, Switzerland, stable, rich, comfy


place, if we are outside the European Union, we will be the same.


That is clearly not the case, they are niche players. They have fish


in nor way, and we have given away an industry on the own that would


be worth �3 billion a year of what is caught in British waters is


given away to all the other fleets fleets.


We have to negotiate fish in British waters. The very rude


English people talking all over each other. I agree. I think we


manage well outside the European Union. We have an oil-based economy,


that is true. But the revenue from the oil is transferred into the


Norwegian society. That's a political choice we have made.


it not also true that you have to abide by European regulation, isn't


that true? To get access to the single market? That's true. You are


essentially governed by facts from Brussels? No we are not. E-mail!


the EU agreement, the single market agreement has a clause where we can


actually veto a directive if we don't like it. We have done that.


That's pretty gracious of them, you are not in it and you are allowed


the right to veto something? We are also invited in the beginning.


There is an important connection between two people here. One of the


things that I think makes Norway and Hong Kong, funnily enough, a


success. If you look, a number of people run things called the


Economic Freedom Index, they look at things like taxation to see how


easy it is to do business. If you look at that in the top ten


countries in the world, you regularly get Norway, Hong Kong,


Singapore, Chile. Scale, it is scale. Totally different. It is


nothing to do with that. 60 million versus five million. That is not to


take anything away from Singapore, but it is ...What Are you saying.


The European Union regularly comes way down it. Let me ask you this,


if Britain were to decide to leave the European Union, and let's


suppose it is an amicable-ish sort of separation, do you think the


rest of Europe could impose hare riches on British trade with


Europe? They can't. Not massively so, there is a trading ray genome


that is global under the trade organisation -- trading regime that


is under global trade organisations. If you want free access to the


single market, then you have to take all the regulations. We are


already saddled with most of those? You want to get rid of them. Unless


you comply with the safety standards, for example, according


to which we want our product, so make, for consumer safety. You will


have to have safety certificatation. We do that everywhere in the world.


Everywhere we sell from. The result of that is Britain sells more to


Germany than to China, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Canada,


and Australia combined. Do you think the market would want to sell


to us, what do you think? Is it because the markets are so easily


accessible. The percentage of overseas trade done with Europe is


38% and falling every single year. You have made that point. Thank you


very much. The growing strength of dislike of


the European Union is generally held to be a political problem,


especially for the Conservatives. For many of them, the Prince across


the wart certificate Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, -- water is Boris


Johnson, Mayor of London, old skill and Bullingdon Club chum of David


Cameron. I have been talking to him. Does he think Britain will still be


in the EU in 2020. All of people who are pro-Europe


would, I think, be very, very reluctant to see us leave. All


together. That doesn't mean it won't happen? It doesn't. I think


what needs to happen now, is we need to have a new relationship


with the EU. And what people will say, before you put this to them, I


know what the objection will be. They will say this is not on the


table. Our partners will never allow this. They will never accept


this kind of renegotiation. So I just want to illustrate why I think


it is deliverable. First of all you better tell us what it is you think


our relationship should be? What it should be is a relationship where


he sheare off a lot of the expressances. I don't see a need


for us to be in the common fisheries policy. I don't see why


we have the Social Chapter affecting bits of employment law


that aren't really strictly speaking for us. Are you happy for


the Common Agricultural Policy? That should be wholly reformed or


repatrioted. We should leave the Common Agricultural Policy? In its


current form it is indefensible any way. The question would be either


out or staying within the EU, but not part of the Common Agricultural


Policy s the Common Fisheries Policy and one or two other things?


That's right. It would be membership of an outer teir. Do you


think David Cameron can deliver such a thing, a relationship where


we are within the European Union, but not part of the common


agricultural policy, the Common Fisheries Policy and the other bits


and pieces? I do. Shouldn't he tell us what his basic minimum is, then?


I'm sure he will reveal all. He has some great speech about this coming


up. Here is what I think he should say. What we want to do is end the


mystery and mistrust, and stop everybody blaming us for not


sharing the zeal of the euro- federates. We don't share that zeal.


We don't have any ambition to pool British sovereignty, to create this


a plural ld usle state, give us that relationship, you stop blaming


us for being the backmarkers, we stop moaning and we have a new


treaty. Based on the INGle market, which we put to the British people.


At that stage the Prime Minister would have to make it pretty clear


that he was going to campaign for that treaty. That would be the deal.


Obviously it would be if the people didn't want it, we would leave.


that is your view, why did you sign the called people's pledge, which


was for an in-out referendum? Because that is is what I'm


advocating. The people's pledge, that is your signature on it, the


people's pledge did not say this is into a reformed EU, or out all


together, it was in or out? But it goes without saying that if people


voted against the new relationship I'm decribing, we come out. You


have to frame it, one way or the other it has to be framed as an in-


out referendum. I'm trying to construct the circumstances in


which we would actually keep the benefits of a single market. Just


because you sign a pledge for an in-out referendum, it doesn't mean


you will automatically campaign to come out of the whole thing. I


don't happen to think that is the right position. Don't you think


this is matter casiwistical interpretation of your signature?


No, not at all, what this country needs is a chance for people to


debate the issue and a chance for the public to vote on whether to be


members of the EU. Here is the point, if they were to vote to come


out, we would be losing, in my view, my judgment, after write beg this


for an awfully long time, we would be losing substantial protections


for British business, for British enterprise, that eblg cyst within


the single market. You -- Exist within the single market. You are


want to go stay in the single market, and abide by all the


internal market directives? certainly there. Here is a whole


pile of them, the control of potato wart disease directive, the control


of carnation leaf? That would be a DG60, under the CAP, and it might


well be that we could reform that one. What about the one on African


horse sickness, do we abide by that one? That is a very nasty Business,


injure he moo, if you contracted African -- Jeremy, if you


contracted African horse sickness. I would contract anything! These


directives, the efficiency of boilers, for example, are we going


to have to carry on abiding by that? All these directives we would


still have to abide by? I certain lie think it is worth us staying in


the single currency. This is your idea of freedom, is it? The African


horse directive. You are asking me about all the detail. The African


horse disease, or the potato wart, I'm fairly confident would actually


turn out to be and come under the broad heading of the CAP. It may be


that we could derrogate from that kind of thing. Put yourself in the


position of a head of a multinational corporation, I'm sure


you have done it many times, would you invest in Britain if there was


any uncertainty about whether we would continue to be fully-pledged


members of the European Union? Business people don't generally


want to get involved in the political debate. I certainly think


one of the reasons why I take the position I do, that it would add to


people's, to business investors' uncertainty about the UK, in the


long-term. I think it might conceivably be a deterrent to


foreign direct investment. What might be? If they thought that we


were not going to be members of the internal market. That is why I


believe that's the right position for the country. So what you say to


people is, look, if you, the British people, don't want to be


members of the internal market, and you take the, you don't want any


directives at all, from any decisions at all to be made in


Brussels for the smoothing or easing of trade or removing of non-


tarrif barriers to trade, you want us to pull out completely. That


will certainly be on the table. They could, by voting against the


deal that I'm decribing, they would be voting to come out. Now, I don't


happen to think that would be the best way forward. I don't think


that would necessarily be the end of the world. People said, when we


didn't join the euro, that those buildings over there, the City of


London, would collapse, and that great big radioactive rats would


crawl out of the gutters and knaw the face of the last British banker,


it would be a disaster. It hasn't been a disaster for the country or


London. If there was a slightest possibility of David Cameron being


unsuccessful in his negotiation, there would bound to be a


possibility that we would have to leave the club? Several big ifs


there, but I don't think that is likely. Given all those ifs, would


you make an investment decision in Britain? I think business would


welcome clarity. We have been on this now, for so long, and we


haven't had a referendum since 1975. It is perfectly obvious that the


Europe question has got to be put to the British people. I think the


formula that I have come up with. What is the Europe question? Do you


want to be in it or not. Johnson thank you very much.


Just in case you are worried about contracting African horse sickness,


don't, you would indeed have to be a horse, a mule or donkey, or a


zebra, perhaps. The risk of the disease entering this country in


any legal trade it thought to be very small. How realistic are Boris


Johnson's plans for renegotiating the relationship with the EUU.


We're joined by the former -- EU, we're joined by the former Europe


Minister now. Supposing David Cameron said we want out of the


Common Agricultural Policy and various policies we don't like what


would the reaction be of the rest of Europe? I listened with great


attention to Mr Johnson, I know that he has a great sense of


humour! That is why I wonder if he is being serious. Because, on the


one hand, he explains to us that the British people are very


miserable in Europe. That it damages its sovereignty, and on the


other hand, he wants to renegotiate a treaty, only for the UK. Which


means that the UK is going to conclude a treaty with the UK. As


perhaps you know, a treaty is a contract between many people, or


countries, and I don't think that the Europeans, and especially the


French, I think, will accept this proposal. Can I ask you this


question, do you think the French would care if Britain decided to


leave the EU? I think that, well I'm not the interpreter, neither


are the French Government or the French people. But I think that the


feeling in Europe, by and large, is that it is time for the British


Government, I don't think the British people are so anti-European,


not as much so as the British Government, in my view. I think it


is time for the moment of truth, and to say that if the UK is still


in the EU, why? Because I think that Mr Johnson has lost his memory.


The history of Britain is European. If you look back to Geoffrey Howe,


the attorney general at that time, he said Europe is solidarity. He


said exactly in a famous quotes, "sovereignty is not like virginity",


either you have it or you have not. It can be shared. That is the


purpose of Europe. If Great Britain wants to build Europe alone, it


won't work, and it will be a shame for the British economy. If I can


add a word. Thank you very much indeed. Emma Reynolds is the shadow


Europe Minister, of the Labour Party. Will the Labour Party give


the British people a referendum? in or out? We don't think it is the


right time now to hold a referendum. Nobody is suggesting you do it


tomorrow? It will depend what happens with the rest of the


European Union. The eurozone will integrate more closely it remains


to be seen what the relationship between those who are outside the


eurozone, and those within the eurozone, will be. You heard Boris


Johnson say there were very specific things that he thought a


Conservative Government would wish to renegotiate with the rest of


Europe, agriculture, fisheries and so on. What would you like to


renegotiate? Certainly we would like to see a reform of the Common


Agricultural Policy. You wouldn't like to renegotiate anything?


he is proposing is totally unrealistic. I'm not interested in


what you think of his policies, I'm interested in what your policies


are? In Government we said we wanted to look at renegotiating


structural funds, European regional policy, but I certainly don't think


we want to repatriate things like employment and social legislation,


we don't want to repatriate other part of the...You Want to reclaim


British fisheries, or stop subsidising French farmers, you


don't want to do any that have? get money back from the CAP, we


would like to have reform on the CAP and give less money to that.


That is a cross-party thing. In order to repatriate the power you


would need the agreement of 26 other member states. The Common


Market, and the rest of the European Union, is based on a


compromise between those 27 member states. And if Britain tries to


unpick that, it will all unravel. David Cameron can't do it, it is


posturing? I think Boris Johnson is posturing, we will see what he


comes up with, his speech has been postponed several times, we will


see what he says. Where will we end up after another three or four


years? I think the shift in public opinion, and in business opinion,


in this country, is so fundamental and so great, that we are seeing


big changes in politics. I think that Cameron, whether he likes it


or not, will be forced into a referendum. I think he will do


everything he can to avoid an in- out referendum. But Labour will,


within a couple of days, will match the promise. I think a referendum


is coming, by 2016 there will be one. Whether it ends it or not, I


don't know, but the 17 European countries are moving towards a full


political European. We cannot go on that jouorny. Our relationship will


change fundamentally, whether it is as much as I want it to be, in a


few years time, I don't know. In the end that is where we are going.


You would welcome a referendum, on your side of the fence?


referendum is a distraction, but if the people of Britain want it we


should have it. Come the moment when the British people look at


what it would really mean to leave Europe, they will decide they don't


want to do it. They will decide they don't want the economic loss


of growth, they don't want to be cut off from the rest of Europe,


and they don't want to be alone in the world. Irvine Welsh, briefly,


if there is a referendum, would you be in favour of the people of


Scotland having a say? You would quite possibly have a scenario


whereby you have a British vote about membership of the EC, and


Scotland votes to stay in, and England votes to stay out. Then you


have a constitutional question, I mean, does England drag Scotland,


or is England de facto left leaving the union, and going it alone.


would have to man Hadrian's Wall, wouldn't we! There is still the


west loathe y'allian question, that is like the west and Lothian


question. Thank you very much. That's more


than enough for tonight. Kirsty is here tomorrow, until then, good


here tomorrow, until then, good night.


Hello there, there is nowhere near as much fog around overnight. It


will be a frosty start in the morning. Potentially icey in


Scotland as well. We have some sleet and snow around the central


belt moving northward, leaving behind some patchy fog in the


afternoon. That will be affecting the vale of work, potentially. Much


more fog in the morning, most lifting. We will see some sunshine


developing. Pretty good across the Midland, except for the cold. East


Anglia too. Sunshine across the southern counties for a while. Then


the cloud increasing and a few spots of rain or drizzle arriving


in the south west later in the day. It is here we will have the highest


temperatures. Some of the rain thrifting into South Wales, crisp


and cold and bright and frosty. An unusually mild start to the day


across Northern Ireland. Thanks to the cloud we have at the moment.


The sunshine will come through fairly quickly. A lot of cloud for


Scotland, and here some snowfall. Early in the morning, as much as


five centimeters around the Glasgow area, potentially, working


northwards to Inverness. You can see how the temperature change from


Thursday to Friday as it turns milder across the north but wetter


too. That story is mirrored greater across the south. The low


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