08/01/2013 Newsnight


08/01/2013

Is Labour the party of skivers? Do Romanians want to live in Britain? Can a trillion dollar coin help America dodge the debt ceiling? David Bowie's new release.


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Transcript


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Who is being fair on welfare? Today's cuts are an attack on

:00:15.:00:18.

strivers, say Labour, wrong says the Government. We are being fair

:00:18.:00:22.

to those in work, and paying taxes. I think they should work, same as

:00:22.:00:25.

anybody else. In the other countries they don't get benefits.

:00:25.:00:30.

We have to work for car, food and holidays we have, twice a year.

:00:30.:00:34.

will debate whether all this is a price worth paying for deficit

:00:34.:00:37.

reduction. 27 million Bulgarians and Rumanians gained the right to

:00:38.:00:41.

live and work in Britain at the end of the year. So are we about to

:00:41.:00:46.

become the land of opportunity for a new wave of immigrants? If the

:00:46.:00:51.

quality of my life will improve, if I will be able to find a better job

:00:51.:00:54.

and my life will become better, yeah, I would go.

:00:54.:00:58.

Could the solution to America's political gridlock over the debt

:00:58.:01:05.

ceiling lie with minting a trillion dollar coin. We will explain why a

:01:05.:01:12.

crazy idea is being taken a bit seriously in Washington.

:01:12.:01:17.

# Where are we now Bowie is back. The great shape

:01:17.:01:21.

shifter who seemed to have given up on music, has a new single, album

:01:21.:01:31.
:01:31.:01:35.

and plenty of surprises on his 66th birthday.

:01:35.:01:38.

Good evening, today we got something of a flavour, not just of

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the political year ahead, but prarpbs of the debates raging at

:01:42.:01:46.

Westminster and elsewhere in the country for the next two years.

:01:46.:01:49.

"rancid" was the word David Miliband used to describe some of

:01:49.:01:54.

the tone of the discussions on welfare, as MPs voted to place a 1%

:01:54.:01:57.

cap on benefit up-ratings over the next three years. That means a

:01:57.:02:02.

real-term cut on the large majority of working age benefits and tax

:02:02.:02:05.

credits. Four Liberal Democrats rebelled against the measure, but

:02:05.:02:10.

the coalition remained firms. Ministers argue the welfare budget

:02:10.:02:14.

is so large, it has to be trimmed as part of the overall strategy to

:02:14.:02:18.

cut the deficit. We will debate in a moment. Paul Mason reports.

:02:18.:02:22.

If you have ever wondered what the frontline of a political

:02:22.:02:28.

battlefield looks like, it is this. In the Commons, it was fought more

:02:28.:02:33.

in sorrow than in ideology. Table tapping, rather than tub-thumping

:02:33.:02:37.

from Iain Duncan Smith. The reality is that over the last five years,

:02:37.:02:42.

following the recession, the gap has grown between what people in

:02:42.:02:45.

employment have been earning and getting, and what those on welfare

:02:45.:02:49.

have been getting. Labour, whose Shadow Cabinet had been split over

:02:49.:02:52.

whether to oppose this measure, fighting a battle of language as

:02:52.:02:58.

well as substance. This bill discuss to to make three judgments,

:02:58.:03:01.

about fairness, affordability and politics, the Chancellor's claim in

:03:01.:03:06.

his Autumn Statement that the bill was about distinguishishing working

:03:06.:03:10.

people and those "asleep, living a life on benefits", has been blown

:03:10.:03:15.

out of the water by the facts that have come out since. Four Liberal

:03:15.:03:18.

Democrats rebelled, and the vote was never in doubt. The Government

:03:18.:03:24.

won the vote with a majority of 56, they didn't mention scroungers or

:03:24.:03:26.

shirkers, but beyond Westminster, after weeks of controversy about

:03:26.:03:31.

this bill, it is being discussed in visceral terms.

:03:31.:03:36.

Luton is the kind of place where today's real-terms cut will be felt.

:03:36.:03:40.

15% of the adult population claim benefits, and with a local average

:03:40.:03:44.

wage �2,000 lower than the national, many workers here will be getting

:03:44.:03:48.

the tax credits that were capped today. But on the streets of this

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solid Labour town, well, vox pops are never scientific. If you want

:03:54.:03:57.

to work then you should work, I know a colleague of mine he works,

:03:58.:04:02.

but his wife doesn't, he needs the benefits system as well. People who

:04:02.:04:05.

abuse it, I think they should get it scrapped all together. Cutting

:04:05.:04:08.

back is good, you have to take into consideration people's

:04:08.:04:12.

circumstances before you cut the benefits. How are you going to go

:04:12.:04:16.

about cutting it, they need to live at the same time. We think they

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should make it tougher. Tougher to get benefits in the first place.

:04:19.:04:26.

think they should work, same as anybody else. Other countries don't

:04:26.:04:30.

get work. We have to work to get food and a car and holidays that we

:04:30.:04:34.

have, twice a year. It was Mrs Thatcher in 1986 who brought in the

:04:34.:04:38.

Family Credit system, designed, then, to support the incomes of the

:04:38.:04:43.

working poor. By the end of it, 750,000 families were claiming it,

:04:43.:04:49.

and the bill was �2.4 billion. In 1999, Gordon Brown introduced the

:04:49.:04:54.

more generous working families tax credit, by by 2003 was being

:04:54.:04:59.

claimed by 1.3 million families, and cost �6.3 billion. Then, this

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was replaced with the Working Tax Credit and the children's tax

:05:03.:05:08.

credit. 4.3 million families, in work, claimed it then, 4.9 million

:05:08.:05:13.

now. But, it is the costs that have risen. For the working families

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alone, it has gone from �11.3 billion, to �21 billion today.

:05:19.:05:21.

growth of the welfare system, particularly under the previous

:05:21.:05:26.

Government, through things like tax credits, has meant we are at this

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stage now where people earning up to �60,000, until recently, could

:05:29.:05:33.

have been entitled to some kind of welfare. Child benefit was going to

:05:33.:05:37.

everybody, universal benefits going to pensioners who are wealthy. At

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one stage, according to Government figures, nine in ten families

:05:41.:05:48.

qualified for some tax credits and welfare. It is a vast system and

:05:48.:05:54.

trapped people in it. If you Google words like "benefits protest" it is

:05:54.:05:59.

protests like this. There is fury among recipients of disability

:05:59.:06:02.

benefits. The Government's thoughts are no such ructions will take

:06:02.:06:07.

place over the 1% cap. But for Labour, this is a fight they have

:06:07.:06:12.

to join. This cap represents for the first time since 1930, where

:06:12.:06:15.

the incomes of those in or out of work will fall as a deliberate act

:06:15.:06:18.

of Government policy. The last time it happened under a Labour

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Government, that attempted to do that, and ended up collapsing with

:06:22.:06:24.

the then Prime Minister going into coalition with the Conservatives.

:06:24.:06:28.

Actually, this is deep within Labour history. Labour had no

:06:28.:06:31.

choice but to oppose this cap on that basis.

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The problem s the tax credit system was designed in an era of rising

:06:36.:06:41.

real income, now, they are stagnating. In 2000, the household

:06:41.:06:45.

disposable income was growing at 5% a year. Long before the financial

:06:45.:06:50.

crash wages began to slow down, by 2010 they were falling. Pre-dating

:06:50.:06:56.

the crash, people's wages started stagnating, from 2004 on wards, the

:06:56.:06:59.

bottom half of wages in this country from flatlining. The

:06:59.:07:03.

problem with tax credits, although they were the means, they are a

:07:03.:07:07.

lifeline for millions in this country, but they are basically a

:07:07.:07:10.

subsidy for low pay, because businesses aren't paying their

:07:10.:07:13.

workers properly, Labour didn't tackle that sufficiently in

:07:13.:07:18.

Government. Now the position Labour should be making, is instead of

:07:18.:07:21.

subsidising employers paying out rubbish wage, that we should have a

:07:21.:07:25.

living wage which would bring down the billion spent on tax credits,

:07:25.:07:27.

rather than at the moment kicking the people at the bottom, which is

:07:27.:07:31.

what this Government is doing. debate has exposed tensions on both

:07:31.:07:34.

sides of politics, some in the coalition, queasy about the

:07:34.:07:37.

language of blame attached to benefit claimants. Labour,

:07:37.:07:42.

meanwhile, left defending the Blair-Brown era welfare system,

:07:42.:07:49.

which those close to Ed Miliband, are convinced needs radical reform.

:07:49.:07:51.

Alongside one-nation Labour, we have now got a Conservative Party

:07:51.:07:57.

deeply concerned about the wage differentials of the workers. Just

:07:57.:08:01.

over an hour ago I spoke to Sajid Javid, Economic Secretary to the

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Treasury, and to Stephen Timms, the shadow Employment Minister.

:08:06.:08:10.

Stephen Timms, 30% of Government spending is spent on welfare, do

:08:10.:08:13.

you accept, as a matter of principle, it has to be put

:08:13.:08:19.

somewhere to cut the deficit? deficit certainly does have to cut.

:08:19.:08:23.

Just, sorry to interrupt right away, does welfare spending have to be

:08:23.:08:27.

cut to cut the deficit? We have to reduce the number of people out of

:08:27.:08:30.

work in order to reduce the spending on their benefits, yes.

:08:30.:08:34.

Your answer implies, again, that there isn't a benefit that you

:08:34.:08:37.

don't like. You don't want to cut benefits for the disabled, you

:08:37.:08:40.

don't want to cut benefits for people out of work, you don't even

:08:40.:08:44.

want to cut child benefit for those who are quite well off, what do you

:08:44.:08:50.

want to cut? Disabled people's benefits, the Secretary of State

:08:50.:08:53.

said in the debate they would be protected by this bill, that isn't

:08:53.:08:57.

the case. That became clear later on. If you compare the unemployment

:08:58.:09:02.

forecast in the budget, with the unemployment forecast in the Autumn

:09:02.:09:05.

Statement just before Christmas. The later one is significantly

:09:05.:09:08.

higher, that means the Government will have to spend out an extra �3

:09:08.:09:13.

billion over the next two years on unemployment benefit, this bill

:09:13.:09:17.

saves �3 billion. That is what is behind the bill, to clawback the

:09:17.:09:20.

increase because of unemployment going up. You have an argument

:09:20.:09:24.

there that I will put to the other side. Is there a benefit that you

:09:24.:09:29.

would target that is ripe for cutting. Or are you saying the

:09:29.:09:32.

welfare benefits are sacrosanct, but you want to target them by

:09:32.:09:35.

getting people off benefits, that is a different solution?

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solution to the problem we are is to get people back into work.

:09:38.:09:41.

Everybody wants to do that? It is not happening. We have made

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proposals that can make it happen. We need to reinject some momentum

:09:47.:09:50.

into the economy, get people back to work, and then the unemployment

:09:50.:09:54.

bill will come down. In that case, when Labour is elected by a

:09:55.:09:59.

landslide in 2015, you will come in 2016, when these three years run

:09:59.:10:03.

out, you will reverse all this? we will, however, want to get

:10:03.:10:08.

people back to work, we have set out last week how we will do that.

:10:08.:10:12.

The bill you have voted against, you will not reverse in 2016?

:10:12.:10:16.

will depend on the circumstances at the time. We will, however,

:10:16.:10:20.

concentrate very hard on getting people back to work, so they are

:10:20.:10:22.

paying taxes, the national insurance and not on benefits any

:10:22.:10:26.

more. The argument, partly the core of that, that people have been

:10:26.:10:30.

making all day, is that when you came up with this bill, you knew

:10:30.:10:33.

that you were going to penalise the poorest people in this country for

:10:33.:10:36.

their poverty, that is what is going to happen? That's not what's

:10:36.:10:40.

going to happen at all. First of all, the opening question you had

:10:40.:10:44.

for Stephen, that was how are you going to deal with the deficit? The

:10:44.:10:47.

previous Government left this country with the largest budget

:10:47.:10:49.

deficit. We know, that you are doing it, partly, but penalising

:10:49.:10:54.

the poorest people in the country, including the disabled? You can't

:10:54.:10:57.

deal with the deficit without dealing with the welfare well. It

:10:57.:11:01.

is over �200 billion, it is one in every three pounds raised in taxes,

:11:01.:11:06.

you have to deal with it. So you are, morally, you think it is fine

:11:06.:11:08.

to penalise some of the poorest people in the country? The poorest

:11:08.:11:12.

people in the country, the most vulnerable, such as pensioners,

:11:12.:11:17.

people disabled, are protected. They are not there. That is not

:11:17.:11:21.

what the disability groups are saying today, they are saying that

:11:21.:11:26.

is absolutely not the case, they are suffering real cuts in the

:11:26.:11:33.

employment and other allowances, there were figures announced today?

:11:33.:11:36.

The Government has published the impact assessment today, the most

:11:36.:11:39.

vulnerable are rightly protected, those on out of work benefits, that

:11:39.:11:43.

have the ability to look for work, change their circumstances, are the

:11:43.:11:45.

oneing that is will be affected by this change. This change -- ones

:11:45.:11:50.

that will be affected by this change. It doesn't mean no increase

:11:50.:11:56.

in welfare fits ts 1% over three years brb benefits, it is 1% over

:11:56.:12:02.

three years. It is less than inflation. You refer to your own

:12:02.:12:05.

impact assessment, single parents will lose �5 a week, that is

:12:05.:12:08.

according to your assessment? is looking at the measures in

:12:08.:12:12.

isolation. Looking at the other measures, the increase in the

:12:12.:12:16.

personal allowance, taken together, that increase alone is almost �590

:12:16.:12:20.

extra in the pocket of a basic rate taxpayer. Do you accept that even

:12:20.:12:24.

if George Osborne's rhetoric was right, that there are some people

:12:24.:12:27.

who hide behind the curtains and don't go to work, these people also

:12:27.:12:31.

have children, and it is the children who will suffer? People

:12:31.:12:34.

that are most vulnerable will be protected. Let as talk about Child

:12:34.:12:39.

Tax Credits and people who receive benefits. Under Labour, tax credits

:12:39.:12:44.

went to nine out of ten families, in the country. Nine out of ten

:12:44.:12:50.

families received Child Tax Credits, it wasn't linked to income, it

:12:50.:12:52.

wasn't necessarily linked to the number, whether the household was

:12:52.:12:56.

in work or not, we have changed that to make sure that welfare is

:12:56.:13:00.

targeted to the people who need it most, and at the same time you

:13:00.:13:03.

protect the most vulnerable. come, then, under Labour, so many

:13:03.:13:07.

people, including many people in work, became dependant, one way or

:13:07.:13:11.

another on receiving benefits what went wrong? Tax credits played a

:13:11.:13:15.

very important part in increasing the number of people in work. And

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they were successful in doing that. In work which didn't pay the rate

:13:19.:13:23.

for the job, apparently, otherwise they wouldn't have to be subsidise

:13:23.:13:27.

bid the taxpayer? Tax credits meant for a very large number of people

:13:27.:13:31.

it was worth being in work, when previously. Nine out of ten

:13:31.:13:34.

households. That was a reality of the economy, we were able to make

:13:34.:13:37.

that change, and very substantially increase the employment rate as a

:13:37.:13:41.

result. That was the right thing to do, it was a successful policy.

:13:41.:13:45.

What this bill will do is hit people who are in work,

:13:45.:13:48.

particularly people in modestly paid work, an army Second

:13:48.:13:54.

Lieutenant, supporting a wife and three children, �550 worse off as a

:13:54.:13:58.

result of this bill. Come back on this? First of all, the tax credit,

:13:58.:14:03.

he hasn't answered the point. Why were they going to nine out of ten

:14:03.:14:06.

households, it was untargeted welfare. We need to make sure

:14:06.:14:09.

welfare goes to those who need it most. It is a system, as we are

:14:09.:14:12.

introducing with Universal Credit, which comes into place this year,

:14:12.:14:15.

that actually helps you get back into work, that is what people want

:14:15.:14:19.

to see. Having raised that question, Universal Credit, which is a huge

:14:19.:14:23.

reform for this country, massive change. Something the Labour Party

:14:23.:14:27.

voted against. But David Miliband today suggested that some parts of

:14:27.:14:32.

this debate are, in his word, "rancid", the implication is we are

:14:32.:14:36.

into the politics of rich and poor, and what you are doing is already

:14:36.:14:40.

very devisive and will get more devisive as the year goes on?

:14:41.:14:45.

not intended to be. The most devisive language we saw today was,

:14:45.:14:50.

unfortunately, from the Labour side of the House. They shouldn't see it

:14:50.:14:52.

as devisive or to be using inflammatory language, this is

:14:52.:14:55.

about, first of all, dealing with the deficit, you can't deal with

:14:55.:14:58.

the deficit without dealing with welfare. If you accept that premise,

:14:58.:15:03.

then do it in the fairest way possible, and the fairest way is to

:15:03.:15:07.

protect the most vulnerable, which we have done, and make sure we have

:15:07.:15:10.

put incentives in place for others, that they will take jobs and pay

:15:10.:15:13.

them to be better off.S This the flavour of the debate coming up. It

:15:13.:15:18.

was Liam Byrne talking about shirkers and strivers? Disabled

:15:18.:15:23.

people aren't being protect. We have to get that clear. The basic

:15:23.:15:26.

Employment and Support Allowance will only be up-rated by 1%, that

:15:26.:15:30.

is going to everybody disabled. Those will not be protected. This

:15:30.:15:34.

is a devisive bill, it is recreating the policies of the 80s,

:15:34.:15:39.

which led to a rocketing in the number of children below the

:15:39.:15:44.

poverty line. It is cutting the top rate of income tax, not properly

:15:44.:15:50.

up-rating benefits, that is a toxic combination. We had it in the 80s

:15:50.:15:54.

and now. Four Liberal Democrats voted against the bill, Charles

:15:54.:15:58.

Kennedy registered his positive abstention. This is not the kind of

:15:59.:16:02.

policy, frankly, that the Government should be taking forward.

:16:02.:16:10.

It is deeply devisive and damaging in the long run. I mentioned David

:16:10.:16:12.

Miliband's contribution, a great addition to the front bench

:16:12.:16:16.

wouldn't he? He made a telling contribution today, he's right to

:16:16.:16:21.

use the term "rancid" about the way the Conservative Party is handling

:16:22.:16:26.

this. You hope that happens? would be delighted to see it.

:16:26.:16:30.

key question nobody answered today and tonight from the Labour side,

:16:30.:16:32.

if they are not going to deal with the benefit bill, but they are

:16:33.:16:37.

going to deal with the deficit, how will they do it. Where will they

:16:37.:16:41.

find the �3 billion of savings come from, they don't have an answer to

:16:41.:16:46.

that question. Now, around 27 million Bulgarians

:16:46.:16:49.

and Rumanians gain full rights to work in Britain at the end of this

:16:49.:16:55.

year. When restrictions to protect the UK labour market expire. Some

:16:55.:17:00.

predict a repeat of what happened after 2004, when predictions talked

:17:00.:17:03.

about 20,000 arrivals from new accession countries, like Poland,

:17:03.:17:07.

the actual figure from 2011 was 30- times that number. Should we brace

:17:07.:17:12.

ourselves for another flood of migrants from the EU, or are things

:17:12.:17:19.

very different now. Sancha Berg reports from Romania.

:17:19.:17:24.

Even in the bleakest days of Ceausescu's Romania, small farmers

:17:24.:17:30.

killed a pig at home once a year, in villages like Nimesch, in

:17:30.:17:38.

Transylvenia, they still do. First, they burn the skin with

:17:38.:17:47.

straw, to remove the bristles. Then use a blow torch to finish the job.

:17:47.:17:52.

This is a proud tradition in main Rumanian villages, it also allows

:17:52.:17:57.

many families to enjoy fresh pork and bacon, which they couldn't

:17:57.:18:04.

otherwise afford. Rumanian incomes are among the lowest in the EU.

:18:04.:18:10.

Working abroad can transform the fortunes of a family. Cristian

:18:10.:18:18.

Cabou has just returned from five years in Spain. TRANSLATION: I sent

:18:18.:18:21.

all the money back to Romania, apart from what I needed to spend

:18:21.:18:26.

in Spain, I did have to spend quite a lot there. But most of it I sent

:18:26.:18:33.

back to Romania, because that's where I see my future. He has a

:18:33.:18:38.

good job now, in a local pharmacy, but he thinks others might try to

:18:38.:18:43.

find work in England or Germany, when it's easier for he Rumanians

:18:43.:18:52.

to do so. -- If they are offered the chance they will take it. Many

:18:52.:18:58.

logo abroad, they have -- many will go abroad, they will have problems

:18:58.:19:03.

with the language, but they will manage, Rumanians will always

:19:03.:19:08.

manage. Over the last ten years many left to work in Spain. Whole

:19:08.:19:11.

families migrated when the economy was booming, many have returned

:19:11.:19:21.
:19:21.:19:28.

since. Many from this town are working abroad too. Francesco

:19:28.:19:36.

Acerbi lives alone for half the year -- Radu Serb lives alone for

:19:36.:19:42.

half the year, his wife is in Italy, caring for an elderly lady, making

:19:42.:19:52.
:19:52.:19:54.

money for the family. They usually speak several times a day. He tells

:19:54.:20:04.
:20:04.:20:04.

his wife not to cry. She says she misses home. TRANSLATION: It's

:20:04.:20:09.

worth going abroad to work, that is because our pensions are very low.

:20:09.:20:15.

We could earn 700 euros a month there. Our pension is the same in

:20:15.:20:20.

terms of quantity, but only in Romanian money.

:20:20.:20:25.

In 2011, the census showed the number of people in Romania had

:20:25.:20:29.

fallen by 12%. Many lured by opportunities abroad. Over the last

:20:29.:20:33.

few years, millions of Romanians have left their home country, and

:20:33.:20:36.

travelled to work in other parts of the European Union. Often sending

:20:36.:20:41.

money home. Most of them have gone to Spain, and Italy. Partly because

:20:41.:20:45.

the languages are closer to Romanian, also because there are

:20:45.:20:49.

fewer barriers to work for them there. As restrictions are lifted

:20:49.:20:55.

in other European countries, including Britain, will these

:20:55.:21:03.

migration patterns change? Dr Alina Branda knows these Transylvanian

:21:03.:21:07.

villages well, she stud yied them for many years, she -- studied them

:21:07.:21:11.

for many years. She told me many people had always gone abroad to

:21:11.:21:16.

work, but they always came back. She was surprised to find the

:21:16.:21:21.

younger villagers we met in the local hall, tended to have a more

:21:21.:21:25.

adventurous outlook. Though not awful them wanted to go. Adrian

:21:25.:21:30.

said he would prefer to stay at home with his friend. I like it

:21:30.:21:36.

here in my village, I like my country. Emile had worked as a

:21:36.:21:40.

brick layer in Spain, he told me he earned seven-times more than in

:21:40.:21:47.

Romania, he planned to go abroad again, he said. Madaline had been

:21:47.:21:50.

to school in Spain, he preferred the situation abroad, he would like

:21:50.:21:54.

to live there, Spain would be ideal. But he would consider other

:21:54.:22:04.
:22:04.:22:05.

countries. You might think about going to England as well? If he

:22:05.:22:11.

could get a job over there, yes, he would go. I'm really curious what's

:22:11.:22:19.

going on right now, after 20 12, because my feeling is that the

:22:19.:22:24.

younger generation is more exposed to the new ways of migration,

:22:24.:22:30.

patterns of migration, perhaps, and they are more open to new areas,

:22:30.:22:38.

new destination countries. Britain could be one of those destination

:22:38.:22:42.

countries, though no-one we spoke to in these villages knew the rules

:22:42.:22:49.

were changing at the end of this year. In the capital, Bucharest,

:22:49.:22:55.

the richest part of Romania, there are more job opportunities. However,

:22:55.:23:00.

the transformation many hoped for has yet to materialise. Ceausescu

:23:00.:23:04.

imposed a particularly oppressive brand of communism on his country,

:23:04.:23:11.

Romania has found it harder than most to escape its past. Bucharest

:23:11.:23:15.

was once known as the Paris of the Balkans, but today Romania is one

:23:15.:23:22.

of the very poorest countries in the European Union. The economy's

:23:22.:23:26.

projected to grow thisy, but it has a long way to go before catching up

:23:26.:23:29.

with the rest of Europe. It is hardly surprising that many

:23:29.:23:35.

Romanian workers attempted to seek employment abroad. When Poland

:23:35.:23:40.

joined the EU, hundreds of thousands of people came to Britain.

:23:40.:23:43.

Those advising the British Government believe the numbers of

:23:43.:23:48.

Romanians coming to the UK could rise significantly. Romanian

:23:48.:23:58.
:23:58.:23:59.

commentators are more Sangin. Will there be a -- sanguine, will there

:23:59.:24:03.

be a big wave of immigration? wave already happened, now there

:24:03.:24:08.

will be waves, but not tsunamis. key difference is that Poles could

:24:08.:24:13.

only go to Britain and two other EU countries, Romanians will be able

:24:13.:24:20.

to work across the European Union. Not all young Romanians are

:24:20.:24:23.

enthusiastic about the prospect, in a busy bar in the centre of

:24:23.:24:29.

Bucharest, I met a group of young professional, most employed by

:24:29.:24:38.

international software companies. For me, definitely stay. Because of

:24:38.:24:44.

my family, because of my friends, because of my job, because of the

:24:44.:24:51.

language. Because of our life here in Romania. It would take an

:24:51.:24:55.

attractive job package to tempt them abroad. I think I will go only

:24:55.:25:04.

if I had a really good offer and that's say it is financially wise.

:25:04.:25:10.

They would all come up against a stereotypical view of Romanians.

:25:10.:25:15.

few days ago I had business travel to Scotland. I took a bus tour, and

:25:15.:25:20.

the lady at the ticket shop asked me where I was from, I said Romania,

:25:20.:25:25.

and she was very amazed, wow, but you speak very good English. I was

:25:25.:25:32.

like, why not, I'm from Romania, not from a very poor country with

:25:32.:25:39.

no education at all. 100kms north of Bucharest is

:25:39.:25:44.

Romania's industrial heartland, several multinationals have built

:25:44.:25:50.

factories here. This Romanian company, workers earn 400 euros a

:25:51.:25:56.

month. This firm is hoping to profit from growing migration to

:25:56.:26:00.

Britain, just as Polish workers brought their own brands of Vodka

:26:00.:26:07.

to the UK, so this company hopes Romanians will want to buy their

:26:07.:26:11.

favourite local Brandy when they move. If you really want to

:26:11.:26:15.

penetrate into the country, you use the base the Romanians that are

:26:15.:26:19.

living there, then address the local population also. Do you have

:26:19.:26:23.

any sense from your UK sales whether there are quite a lot of

:26:23.:26:27.

Romanians in the UK at the moment? The number is increasing, very much.

:26:27.:26:32.

Two or three years ago, I think, there were not too many Romanians,

:26:32.:26:36.

but lately there are more and more Romanians living in the UK. I

:26:36.:26:46.
:26:46.:26:48.

believe that this number will increase. For Romania, the end of

:26:48.:26:52.

this year will be a significant moment, Romania's people have

:26:52.:26:57.

always seen themselves as European, with their traditional orthodox

:26:57.:27:02.

faith, and their Latin language. But they haven't been fully

:27:02.:27:11.

accepted by all their European neighbours. Soon, Romanians will be

:27:11.:27:16.

free to work right across the European Union. For now, Romania

:27:16.:27:24.

still feels like a country on the edge of Europe. Julia Onslow-Cole

:27:24.:27:31.

is head of global immigration at PWC Legal, and on the board of

:27:31.:27:35.

migration matters Trust. And David Goodhart is director of the think-

:27:35.:27:38.

tank Demos. Have you any worries about what might happen at the end

:27:38.:27:41.

of the year when the Bulgarians and the Romanians can come in if they

:27:41.:27:47.

want to? Yes, I do, this won't be like 2004, when hundreds of

:27:47.:27:50.

thousands of people from eight countries were suddenly able to

:27:50.:27:55.

come here and weren't able to, as the film pointed out, weren't able

:27:55.:27:58.

to go to other countries. The numbers won't be anything like that.

:27:58.:28:02.

It doesn't need a very large number of Romanians and Bulgarians to come

:28:02.:28:09.

here. Perhaps just as many as an extra 20,000 or 30,000 a year, for

:28:09.:28:13.

the Government's very carefully planned reduction in numbers

:28:13.:28:16.

towards that magic figure of tens of thoughs to be blown off course.

:28:16.:28:20.

If that happens before an election. Does that matter? It matters hugely,

:28:20.:28:24.

politically. If the Government, on my calculations, I would say that

:28:24.:28:29.

the Government is heading, at the moment, to get net immigration down

:28:29.:28:33.

to about 120,000 a year. That is still missing this tens of

:28:33.:28:36.

thousands of formula, but they can argue that they basically halved

:28:36.:28:39.

net immigration in the time they have been in office. I think that

:28:39.:28:44.

would take the sting out of the immigration debate, it wouldn't be

:28:44.:28:48.

a huge issue in the election. If it is 150,000, UKIP will be banging

:28:48.:28:53.

away at it, it will be hugely poisonous in the election. What was

:28:53.:28:59.

your view, then, looking backwards from 2004, we had this big

:29:00.:29:03.

inflation of Polish people and other people in the country, your

:29:03.:29:06.

assessment is this was fundamentally a good thing for us?

:29:06.:29:10.

I'm concerned about what it will have on the net migration policy.

:29:10.:29:15.

The real issue here is that, largely, European immigration is

:29:15.:29:20.

uncontrollable by the Government you have to have a change in the

:29:20.:29:27.

European treaty. What they can control is non-EU workers. And that

:29:27.:29:30.

category is the category for business, it is a category that's

:29:30.:29:35.

already had nine rule changes in the last year. Fundamentally, we

:29:35.:29:39.

cannot afford for the growth of our economy to tamper with that

:29:39.:29:42.

category any more. PwC does a survey for chief executives,

:29:43.:29:49.

annually, and 60% of CEOs say what is keeping them up at night is

:29:49.:29:54.

worries about not being able to bring in non-EU migrants to support

:29:54.:29:57.

their business. Putting it very crudely, is the worry that some of

:29:57.:30:02.

the Romanians and Bulgarians who come in will be low-skilled workers

:30:02.:30:05.

and count in so. Numbers that David is talking about, that means those

:30:05.:30:08.

numbers will not be available for the people you are talking about

:30:08.:30:12.

want to bring in, because they have higher skills? There is no

:30:12.:30:15.

competition there it is a completely separate migration

:30:15.:30:19.

category. It is just that the physical numbers coming in will

:30:19.:30:23.

count against the net migration target. And so, that will have the

:30:23.:30:28.

knock-on effect that the Government will be tempted to clamp down on

:30:28.:30:33.

the group that they can control. And the reason that the Government

:30:33.:30:39.

mustn't touch the worker, the non- EU worker category, is to get

:30:39.:30:44.

ourselves out of economic downturn, we must increase our exports, and

:30:44.:30:48.

where companies are exporting to at the moment is Africa, Asia, south

:30:48.:30:56.

America, and we need skills of those people to come in.

:30:56.:30:59.

touched on the political issue and the rise of UKIP, and other parties

:31:00.:31:04.

like the BNP, presumably, is there a cultural issue, beyond the

:31:04.:31:09.

politics of it, is this a cultural issue at the route of it, or do the

:31:09.:31:14.

Poles fit in, they pay their tax, and many go home, as many of the

:31:14.:31:18.

Romanian workers say, they go home, that is where they want to be?

:31:18.:31:21.

eastern Europeans in general it is a mixed picture, some people have

:31:21.:31:24.

been staying and building lives here, and learning English and

:31:24.:31:30.

fitting in, and others haven't. They have been commuter immigrants.

:31:30.:31:33.

But I don't think in way that is not particularly the issue here, we

:31:33.:31:38.

are not talking about large numbers, we are talking about a few tens of

:31:38.:31:41.

thousands. The immigration debate in Britain is finished, it is over,

:31:41.:31:45.

everybody agrees, 80% of the population, agree with the

:31:45.:31:50.

Government. I'm head of a progressive think-tank, I agree

:31:50.:31:53.

with the Government that we need numbers way down, back to normal

:31:53.:31:58.

level, which means the high tens of thousands. It is the way you do it,

:31:58.:32:03.

which is where the argument is. How you do that, without damaging

:32:03.:32:06.

industry, as was said, and without damaging higher education. I think

:32:06.:32:09.

the Government is doing a pretty good job at that. David Cameron has

:32:09.:32:13.

a big speech on Europe, should he then address this, there is a lot

:32:13.:32:16.

of things he should talk about, should he address internal

:32:16.:32:20.

immigration within the EU, as a problem? I think he's doing a good

:32:20.:32:24.

job in trying to address some of these issues, but they are very

:32:24.:32:29.

challenging to address. I think, for example, it is, you know, good

:32:29.:32:34.

to talk about these issues, but, actually, implementing European

:32:34.:32:38.

legislation, and changes to the treaty is going to be very

:32:38.:32:42.

difficult. We will leave it there, thank you very much.

:32:42.:32:47.

A platinum coin worth one trillion dollars, it sounds more like the

:32:47.:32:53.

plot of an Austin Powers movie than a serious power tool. But a

:32:53.:32:58.

campaign is gathering pace on the left to mint a single platinum coin,

:32:58.:33:03.

and assign it a face value of a trillion dollars. As a neat way of

:33:03.:33:07.

solving the problems in Congress over the debt ceiling. A Democratic

:33:07.:33:11.

Congressman has endorsed the idea and Republican has endorsed a bill

:33:11.:33:16.

to block it. Then there is the issue of whose face should be

:33:16.:33:20.

engraved on the most valuable qoin in the history of the world.

:33:20.:33:25.

Here -- coin in the history of the world. Here are the options.

:33:25.:33:30.

Mike Castle got an insignificant law passed in 1996 that later

:33:30.:33:40.
:33:40.:33:52.

Qoin This law was never meant to be used for large amounts of money,

:33:52.:33:58.

but it could be as long as the coin is made from platinum. A trillion

:33:58.:34:05.

dollar or zillion dollar coin, whatever President Obama wants. It

:34:05.:34:10.

has to come from the Federal Reserve, running up Government debt.

:34:10.:34:18.

The Republican house speaker is the next candidate, John Boehner. The

:34:18.:34:22.

called debt ceiling, the budget to pay for it. The ceiling has been

:34:22.:34:29.

raised 75-times in the past 95 years. Mostly, without complaint.

:34:29.:34:32.

Currently standing at $16 trillion, if it isn't raised again the

:34:32.:34:37.

Government will run out of money, it is thought, in around two months.

:34:38.:34:43.

Next face, Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate, who said while the coin

:34:43.:34:47.

idea is silly but benign, the debt ceiling rule is silly, but both

:34:47.:34:51.

vile and disastrous. So, it is perfectly legitimate to counter one

:34:51.:34:57.

with the other. Surely the trillion dollar coin should honour business

:34:57.:35:03.

philanthropist, Montgomery Burns, who in 1998 was swindled out of a

:35:03.:35:09.

trillion dollar bill by Fidel Castro, with the aid of Homer

:35:09.:35:16.

Simpson. Mr Burns, I think we can trust the President of Cuba.

:35:16.:35:26.

Now give it back. Give what back? Josh Barrow is a columnist leading

:35:26.:35:33.

coins to mint the coin, and we have a writer about money for the

:35:33.:35:38.

American Enterprise Unit. It is nuts isn't it? The whole

:35:38.:35:42.

situation we are in is nuts, it is nuts we are talking about hitting

:35:42.:35:44.

the debt ceiling and putting the Government in a situation where it

:35:44.:35:49.

will be unable to pay approximately 40% of its bills on any given day.

:35:49.:35:52.

What the trillion dollar coin is, it is a gimmick, but it allows us

:35:52.:35:55.

to avoid a situation where the Government goes into default and

:35:55.:35:59.

severely disrupts the economy. James, a situation where the

:36:00.:36:04.

Government can avoid a default, it sounds like quanative easing,

:36:04.:36:13.

doesn't it? First of all, that significant empt treated it with

:36:13.:36:18.

all the seriousness it deserves, not a lot. All the options of

:36:18.:36:22.

raising the ceiling are really bad. It is not a benign option. By

:36:22.:36:26.

discussing it, it makes it sound palatable, like it would be no big

:36:26.:36:29.

deal. It raises the odds of something like this happen, the

:36:29.:36:32.

Republicans would love the President to try it, it would be a

:36:32.:36:37.

political disaster, which means the odds are increasing we go over this

:36:37.:36:40.

barring limit, which would be really bad for the image of the

:36:40.:36:43.

United States of America. Also the confidence in our way of Government.

:36:43.:36:48.

That is a fair point, I know you have your problems uark the world's

:36:48.:36:52.

biggest economy, -- problems, but you are the world's biggest economy,

:36:52.:36:57.

this would make America look like a laughing stock? I believe the best

:36:57.:37:01.

course of action will be to raise the debt ceiling, I hope he will

:37:01.:37:06.

speak with Republican friends and ask them to have a clean debt

:37:06.:37:10.

ceiling. There are drawbacks to using the platinum coin, but there

:37:10.:37:16.

are drawbacks to all the options on the table politicalically. The

:37:16.:37:19.

Republicans will attach -- politically. The Republican also

:37:19.:37:23.

attach demands to the debt ceiling raise. We don't need short-term

:37:23.:37:26.

fiscal austerity, that will be bad for the economy. But, more broadly,

:37:26.:37:31.

it sets a bad precedent. It says that Republicans, or any party in

:37:31.:37:34.

Government will be able to effectively hold the economy

:37:34.:37:38.

hostage, and say we will force you into a terrible crisis unless you

:37:38.:37:43.

give into our policy demands on this issue. It is a misuse of the

:37:43.:37:48.

debt ceiling and what the President can do by threatening to issue the

:37:48.:37:51.

platinum coin s make sure he won't play the game. It makes it more

:37:51.:37:55.

likely that we will get the debt ceiling increase that is clean.

:37:55.:37:59.

have said it would make America look rather ridiculous, I have to

:37:59.:38:03.

saying, the greatest economy in the world, solving problems on New

:38:03.:38:07.

Year's Eve, with a clock ticking and prospect of jumping over a

:38:07.:38:10.

fiscal cliff, didn't really look like serious politicians trying to

:38:10.:38:15.

sort out the biggest economy in the world? I say we have nowhere

:38:15.:38:20.

further to fall. We are already at rock bottom reputationally. There

:38:20.:38:25.

are real downsides to this. You would be forcing the Federal

:38:25.:38:29.

Reserve into action to offset this, so it doesn't cause a bout of

:38:29.:38:34.

hyperinflation, or higher inflation. You would be hurting the

:38:34.:38:37.

independent of our Central Bank. That is pretty important. I would

:38:37.:38:42.

tell friends on both sides of the aisle, yes, we need to fix our

:38:42.:38:46.

social insurance system, our meddoo decare system and social security,

:38:46.:38:52.

as well as the debt -- Medicare system and social curt as well as

:38:52.:38:55.

the debt ceiling. This is legally possible t could happen? That was

:38:55.:38:59.

not the indebt of the original legislation. It was really about

:38:59.:39:03.

collectables. But do I think it is legal. Listen, you want to talk

:39:03.:39:09.

about uncertainty, let this go to the Supreme Court, let's have a

:39:09.:39:14.

Supreme Court ruling on the gazillon-dollar coin, they better

:39:14.:39:19.

have that decision after the markets close. I don't worry about

:39:19.:39:24.

the legal aspects of this, if you read the attacks to the statute, it

:39:24.:39:28.

is clear the President can issue the platinum coin to whatever

:39:28.:39:31.

denomination it wants, the law is silly, but it is clear. It is not

:39:31.:39:34.

clear that anyone would have standing to bring a lawsuit against

:39:34.:39:38.

it t even if it was illegal t might not be possible to bring a court

:39:38.:39:42.

case challenging the President's action. I think this is actually a

:39:42.:39:45.

legally relatively clear course. The question is the reputational

:39:45.:39:48.

risks on the United States, I recognise the risks are real. We

:39:48.:39:52.

have to compare it against other options about what we do to hit the

:39:52.:39:57.

debt ceiling. Happy birthday Bowie, to celebrate

:39:57.:40:05.

he has offered his fans a birthday present. A new single and album on

:40:05.:40:10.

the way, and a retrospective of his work at the V & A museum in March.

:40:11.:40:15.

He never failed to surprise and reinvent himself, after a bout of

:40:15.:40:19.

ill-health, it was thought he retired. Wrong. This is flavour of

:40:19.:40:23.

his latest work. # Had to get the train

:40:23.:40:30.

# From pots pots -- Potter

:40:30.:40:39.

# You never knew that # That I could do that

:40:39.:40:48.

# Just walking the dead Lovely stuff

:40:48.:40:53.

Joining me now is the author of the David Bowie biography, star sta,

:40:53.:40:59.

the person who has unprecedented to the David Bowie archive, the

:40:59.:41:09.
:41:09.:41:13.

kurator of the Bowie exhibition. Are you surprised by this? It is

:41:13.:41:18.

strange for someone away so long, and who batons down the hatches so

:41:19.:41:25.

much nobody knows about it. Writing an album for two years, and nobody

:41:25.:41:29.

suspects? I suspect it wasn't two years. Bowie has always been

:41:29.:41:32.

forward-looking, he's not really calculating, he follows his

:41:32.:41:41.

instincts. A lot of the things we think Were planned were impro-

:41:41.:41:46.

advised. I would imagine he came up with a bunch of songs and it

:41:46.:41:52.

happened quickly. Why did he do it, impulse? I think he had the songs

:41:52.:41:58.

and went with the flow. What about a Bowie retrospective at the V & A,

:41:58.:42:04.

that is iconic status, at the museum? If you want someone who

:42:04.:42:09.

bridges art and design performance, he's one of the great performers of

:42:09.:42:12.

the world, he's the person. From our perspective, he has never

:42:12.:42:17.

thrown anything away. He has this astonishing archive he has kept,

:42:17.:42:20.

which he made available to us, kindly. He has no other involvement

:42:20.:42:23.

with the exhibition, we have been allowed to go through and choose

:42:23.:42:28.

what we want. That is fantastic for us. It will be fantastic for people

:42:28.:42:32.

to be able to see, in a sense, his past presented, against doing

:42:32.:42:37.

something new. I think what's interesting about the new single

:42:37.:42:42.

that he has brought out. A lot of people are saying it is nostalgic

:42:42.:42:47.

and looking back. It is looking at his time in Berlin, of a city that

:42:47.:42:51.

no longer exists. Divided Berlin. East Germany doesn't exist as a

:42:51.:42:55.

country. What it is really about, is the way that things mutate, and

:42:55.:42:59.

within his life, and obviously his period in Berlin was quite a long

:42:59.:43:04.

way into his career, that entire world that he lived in for a while,

:43:04.:43:08.

has completely disappeared. What have you got that will amaze us and

:43:08.:43:12.

attract us and make us think, presumably you can see the way the

:43:12.:43:19.

artist is at work? There is three things. For a lot of people the

:43:19.:43:22.

costumes will be great, and the videos. Some of the things that

:43:22.:43:25.

will most interest people are the fact that Bowie actually controls

:43:25.:43:30.

every aspect of the production. He's not one of the people who gets

:43:30.:43:33.

in designers and hands it over to them, one of the most interesting

:43:33.:43:38.

things is the sketches that he has done for Ashes to Ash, for the

:43:38.:43:43.

video. Obviously it had a major video made, he thought it all

:43:43.:43:49.

through. Also, in the early 1970, when he did Diamond Dogs, he

:43:49.:43:57.

originally wanted to do a musical of 1984, and Sonia Orwell George

:43:58.:44:02.

Orwell's widow turned it down so he did it himself as a stage show. He

:44:02.:44:09.

storyboarded it as a film, he drew them, and wer we will animate them.

:44:09.:44:15.

He was 27d and we will animate them. He was 27 then, he was had the

:44:15.:44:20.

ambition to make a film and musical. After he was written off as a one-

:44:20.:44:26.

hit wonder with Space Oddity, he did a set of press shoots to

:44:26.:44:30.

rebrand himself, nobody knew the term at the time. He went round the

:44:30.:44:35.

national newspapers, through their archive, and took out their old

:44:35.:44:40.

images of the curly-haired David Bowie and ban it, and relaunch

:44:40.:44:42.

himself completely. When you researched the book you talked to

:44:42.:44:45.

hundreds of people who knew him, did you ever think you really got

:44:45.:44:49.

close to him. It is a difficult judgment for somebody writing a

:44:49.:44:54.

biography whether you have actually got him? One alwayslessly questions.

:44:54.:45:04.
:45:04.:45:05.

There is the presumtiousness of the biographer. I think I did, he is

:45:05.:45:12.

very English, people are inTimed by the -- intimidated by the image,

:45:12.:45:17.

because it is so perfect. He is an ordinary person, he's something of

:45:17.:45:22.

an old showbiz trooper, but at the same time, in terms of a creative

:45:22.:45:26.

artist he is different from any we have known before. That said, when

:45:26.:45:30.

you listen to his voice, it has clearly changed, this is an older

:45:30.:45:37.

man's voice, it is a bit like the later Bob Dylan rather than the

:45:37.:45:41.

younger one? There is a surprise in the single. It may be that the rest

:45:41.:45:46.

of the album is quite different. I think there may be some more

:45:46.:45:51.

surprises. His voice has gone down half an October taif, musicians say

:45:51.:46:00.

it is like -- octave, and musicians say it is like Tony Bennett and

:46:00.:46:10.
:46:10.:46:36.

That's all tonight. We're back tomorrow. Hope to see you. Good

:46:36.:46:46.
:46:46.:47:08.

, a change in the weather on Wednesday, colder conditions across

:47:08.:47:12.

the country. Some frost to begin the day in the north, patchy mist

:47:12.:47:18.

and some fog. It will steadily lift and clear, giving bright spells for

:47:18.:47:21.

the afternoon. Giving thicker cloud further south and east. The cloud

:47:21.:47:24.

tending to break up across parts of the north Midland through the

:47:24.:47:28.

afternoon, grey skies holding on for East Anglia and south-east

:47:28.:47:31.

England. The rain just about clearing the Kent and suss text

:47:31.:47:36.

coast by 3.00pm, keeping thicker cloud across south Devon and

:47:36.:47:39.

Cornwall, for the northern areas it should be brighter for the

:47:39.:47:43.

afternoon, temperatures at 8-9. For Wales it is a dry afternoon, still

:47:43.:47:46.

quite a bit of cloud, we are hopeful of one or two breaks

:47:46.:47:49.

through the afternoon. After the very misty and foggy start for

:47:50.:47:54.

Northern Ireland. Much of it should lift and clear. A cold day at 3-4

:47:54.:47:57.

degrees. Northern Scotland keeping stronger winds with rain across the

:47:58.:48:01.

Northern Isles, the best of any brightness further south, as we

:48:01.:48:11.
:48:11.:48:19.

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