18/07/2013 Newsnight

Thousands take to the streets of Moscow as the main opposition

leader is jailed in what protestors call a show trial. Alexei Navalny,

sentenced to five years for fraud, was his real crime simply to be a

political threat. As Putin's brutal state, has it created a martyr for

the opposition? We hear from Moscow. Also tonight, one of the most

dangerous journeys on earth, the horrific abuse, kidnap and rape of

thousands of African migrants with who try to cross Yemen in the

Police numbers down, crime down too. Does that mean we can have an even

smaller police force? As a great model t goes like a bomb, and the

cars's not bad either. Years after all Partridge, has anything changed

for sexism in court, Harriet Harman says just ban any all-male clubs.

Good evening, Russia's opposition leader was sent to prison today,

his crime, probably that of being too popular, too threatening to one

Vladimir Putin. Alexei Navalny's show trial has sparked protests on

the streets of Moscow and condemnation from around the world.

He signed off with his supporters "don't dawdle the frog won't jump

from the oil pipes himself", that loses something in translation. We

ask tonight if the opposition movement is dead, or if Putin has

created a martyr. How will the west deal with one more round of Putin's

political bullying. It is OK, try not to miss me says

Alexei Navalny's last tweet before they took him down. And most of all

he said "don't be lazy". He will do five years in prison for fraud. His

real crime, say his supporters, was to become the leader of the

opposition movement which swept Russia's streets after the 2011

election. This verdict is a sign of fear from the authorities. They are

afraid to let even the slightest competition in the political

process. I believe that these events are just another step and it

will lead to widening of the political support and of the public

opinion in favour of political change and liberalisation of

political processes in Russia. Russian prosecutors made it clear

they targeted Navalny and sped up the prosecution against him because

of his public role. All the evidence against him came from one

co-defendant who had turned state's witness, who the defence were not

allowed to cross-examine. Navalny, a law graduate, rose to fame as a

blogger, he is posing alleged corruption in Russian business and

politics. He dubbed Putin's party "the party of crooks and thieves".

When evidence of ballot-rigginging emerged in the election of December

2011, Navalny's influence moved off the Internet and on to the streets.

As the demonstrations grew, the sight of the left, alongside

liberals and nationalists terrified Putin. And behind Navalny there are

scores of acts, like this woman, whose lives have been invaded by

the authorities for their role in the demos. For example the

authorities came to my flat with the childcare and asked if I'm a

bad mother. And they told me that they had some whistleblower

information that I hit my son. That is not true. They asked what

English books are doing on the shelves. Books in English and they

told me that's very bad that I have books in two languages. That was

actually, they talked to the childcare. That was just

intimidation. Navalny's harsh sentence comes after the jailing of

Pussy Riot, after they staged a protest in Moscow's Cathedral. And

last month, Vladimir Putin took Russian justice to new territory

with the posthumous trial of Sergei Magnitzi, an opposition lawyer,

widely believed to have been murdered in custody. This was the

final step in Russia's transition of being a managed democracy to

outright dictatorship. Putin is used to sustaining his position

through consent to some extent. It may have been manipulated but it

may have been genuinely there. Now the system can only sustain through

fear. All the people who have posed a threat to Vladimir Putin are

either in exile, in prison or dead. Navalny's latest gambit had been to

stand for election as Mayor of Moscow, where he was running second.

He will be barred from the election now. Even though life has got

better for most Russians under Vladimir Putin checkically, there

is still money flowing out of the country because the -- economically,

there is still money flowing out of the country because the rich don't

trust the system. Navalny stood it old liberals and appealing to some

nationalists and the left. The nationalists form part of Putin's

base, this was highly convenient for Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Putin

will doubtlessly try to use St Petersburg to strengthen his

support at home and legitimacy abroad. It is very important that

western leaders don't collaborate in allowing him to do that. I don't

expect that President Obama or David Cameron or Angela Merkel will

refuse to take part in the summit, and nor should they. But I think it

is very important they say publicly and to Vladimir Putin's face

privately that they consider Alexei Navalny to be a political prisoner

and his continued imprisonment to be a violation of Russia's

international norms. After the verdict the protests were muted.

More watching and waiting than action. It didn't stop the Russian

police from their time-honoured response. But the Kremlin will

watch nervously the political reaction in weeks to come.

A little earlier I spoke to an anti-Putin dissident granted asylum

here in Britain after he fled Russia amid fears of for his life,

and Sergei Markov. I started on the subject of how fair the trial was.

The judge barred the defence from calling 13 key witnesses, defence

lawyers weren't allowed to cross- examine their key witness, even

your federal investigative committee admitted that Navalny had,

as they said, made himself a target by his activism. That is pretty

much an admission? Know, of course we have a lot of different

activists, we have very active political rivals of Vladimir Putin.

A lot of them and none of them was regarded as guilty for corruption.

To be in a position it does not mean that you are absolutely not

corrupt. Most of the opposition is not corrupt, they continue their

activities. And one opposition appeared to be corrupted, it is

Alexei Navalny. Have you read the case of Navalny? Have you read the

huge case or not, or just you think that he was corrupt? It is not

about Navalny, today what happened Russia showed the world that every

person who has a different opinion to the Government, from the Putin

regime, this person could be detained and sent to prison for

their political views. We both know in Russia we don't have independent

courts or freedoms and rights. How you could say that he was corrupt

by this court in Kirov? It is not a court. You know it is the court, it

is a court recognised by your political friends as guilty, that

is not a military court. We see in every European country such kind of

accusations of courts from those politicians who regard it as to be

corrupted. Recognise that Alexei Navalny stole this money. What's

left of the movement that had so much traction back in December of

2011? The problem is that it's not, this case is not about Navalny. Of

course this is a case about all Russian people who are living now

in the country. This case has shown that Putin's regime will fight with

the people like Alexei Navalny. haven't got enough of the people

behind you, when we saw this kind of outrage in the Arab Spring, we

saw revolution, why haven't we seen it in Russia? The problem is TV

propaganda, all the TV in Russian and most of the newspapers are

ruled by the Kremlin. They are maybe not officially ruled by the

Kremlin as they have official newspapers, but we know that co-

operation from the Kremlin, people who are around Putin. That is the

same in every regime where they have a leader that they want to

overthrow, of course you can always say propaganda? The problem is

people couldn't get true information, they couldn't analyse

information. They got only information from official TV

channels. And hasn't President Putin done the most wonderful thing

for Navalny tonight, a shot in the arm, he has made him a martyr?

You know, first of all it is our colleague just informed you about

the situation with the media. I agree that most of the channels,

but not for sure not all of the T channels, but the majority -- TV

channels, but the majority support the Government. Most of the print

media, especially central Moscow print media most of them are very

critical to the Government and even close to opposition. So it is

absolutely not true that the Russian people don't look at the

Russian people has stupid people who have no information. No. (all

speaking at once) because the Internet for the Russian population.

How many people use the Internet. Let's tell the truth to the world,

come on. Andrei Sidelnikov, let me move you on, tomorrow we are going

to see the G20 in Russia, leaders from all over the world, would you

like to see prop action against that now? I think that leaders from

the European countries or the United States they could tell Mr

Putin that in Russia there is no freedoms and rights. And they need

to ban Russia from G8, first of all, they need to tell him that they

will boycott the Olympic Games in 20 14, next year if the Russian

people can't be given the constitution for freedom of human

rights. People are support such a politician which won't (all

speaking at once) Thank you both very much. It is absolutely

outrageous, this is sick but not political group. They are hated by

their own people, because they hate their own country. We don't hate,

come on. Thank you very much indeed. Later in the programme:

Football and sitting on washing machines. Is this broadly how we

see women and supported? It is one of the most dangerous journeys

anyone can make, it is one of the biggest economic migrations in the

world. Every months thousands from across the Horn of Africa try to

reach the farms and factories of Saudi Arabia trying to better their

lives. But to do so they must cross through Djibouti, the strait of

Babel, and up through Yemen where they fall prey to people

traffickers, kidnappers, sexual abuse and torture. There is

evidence that the Yemeni military is involved in people trafficking

and that sexual abuse. Some of the my grants' -- migrants' stories, as

you can imagine are horrific. This is the undertaker of Harad.

This is a Yemeni smuggling town on the border of Saudi Arabia. For

centuries the town has thrived on gun running and drugs smuggling.

Now the commodity is people. Today they are burying an Ethiopian,

another migrant found dead at the The journey that ends in death for

so many begins here. 300 miles to the south. This man is a people

trafficker. He ferries migrants across the Red Sea. He says his

smuggling ring will make $300 per person, he must pay a cut to the

He carries 40 people in his boat, they risk dehydration and exposure,

some boats are so full that people suffocate. The migrants are

desperate for work, and the promise of a better life in Saudi Arabia.

But first, they must cross Yemen. Criminal gangs roam freely, robbery,

abuse and sexual exploitation are common place. Migrants face being

caught, tortured and sold for profit. Thousands arrive on these

shores every month. These pictures show soldiers combing the beach.

They will take the migrants to camps run by the Red Cross. But we

have evidence that some soldiers are working with the people

Haile experienced the shakedown, says those who can pay are released,

those without are sold to kidnappers, kidnappeders who

torture. -- kidnappers who torture. Haile was held in what is known as

a torture camp. Thousands of migrants are being kidnapped and

beaten in torture camps across Yemen. Haile was tortured until his

family paid the ranson to release him. -- ranson to release him.

Getting past the beach is just the first step in this extraordinary

journey. Saudi Arabia is still a 300 mile walk through the desert.

We met these migrants on their way to the border town of Harad. They

have been walking for 40 days. Where are you going? Saudi.What do

you expect to find when you get there? Have you had any trouble so

Yemen is a failing state, the turbulence of the Arab Spring led

to the ousting of the President, and an erosion of Government power.

In this vacuum the migrants can cross Yemen, but gangs of

kidnappers and torturers can also operate at will. Ift car had made

the journey with friends, they had come looking for work, hoping to

make money for their families. He was kidnapped, and his father was

told he needed to pay $3 pun pun to release him. He was told to borrow

the money and wire it toe kidnappers. This footage shows the

inside of a torture camp, it was shot by Medecins sans frontier,

during a series of Government raids in April. Over 1600 migrants were

freed. Many had been beaten, some had their finger nails pulled out

or their tongues partially cut off. Others said they had been beaten

with pipes, burned with cigarettes or had linment poured in their eyes.

The new gang wanted another $250, his father couldn't borrow any more

money. None of the families comfortable This man is 23, he will

He's now at this centre in Harad, inside these walls the migrants are

safe. The centre is full of people who have been tortured, it is run

by the International Orgaization for Migration. This is a

humanitarian crisis, the main thing that we need to provide them with

is voluntary return. Everybody wants to go to their country of

origin. They are shocked by the reality that they have faced.

me your henna? Iftar is 17. She walked 300 miles over the Ethiopian

mountains to Djibouti, there she paid the traffickers to ferry her

to Yemen. She and her friends were Iftar was kept at the camp for

three months. She was too ashamed by what the gang was doing to call

her parents and ask for money. So she was raped every day. Then I

asked Iftar who the kidnappers were? Asma is 16, she got all the

way to the Saudi border before she was arrested by Yemeni soldiers.

How do you know that money was exchanged did you see it? Do you

know how much money you were sold for? She was raped by two,

sometimes three men every day for two months. She got out because one

of her captors, she says, felt pity for her. I spoke to some of the

people who run this camp and they say they have heard other stories

like this. That men in Yemeni military fatigues captured women,

sold them to rapists and in some cases raped them themselves. We

requested an interview with the Yemeni Government about the

treatment of migrants, but our request was declined. There are 200

torture camps in this part of yes mam machine alone. A local judge

offers a safe passage to visit one. One of his soldiers accompanies --

Yemen alone. A local judge offers safe passage to give one, a guard

comes with us to keep us safe. When we arrive one of the guards runs

off, he's gone to find the owner. Inside there are two guards and

five migrants. We asked them if they have been abused? I ask have

they tried to escape? We spot the entrance to a small room at the

edge of the compound. Can we go inside? The soldier says this is

where they take the women, he says what is going on behind the door

could be haram, meaning forbidden. We have just been told the room

here is what the torturers use for rape. We can hear the sound of a

man and a woman in the room. A man appears with a pistol on his belt,

he is the owner of the camp. Does torture exist here? Are there any

women in this farm? We are escorted out. We do not know for sure what

was taking place in the room at the back. But the men we spoke to were

being held against their will. With then spoke to a senior local police

officer, we told him what we had seen, the next day all the migrants

in the camp were released. This is the Saudi border, these mountains,

the final barrier to the Promised Land. Behind the ridges are

thermal-images cameras, electric fencing and a flood lit security

barrier. It is now an almost impossible crossing. Haile had

survived the torture camp, he had walked 300 miles across the desert.

Haile hung from that tree for two days. He remembers very little, but

he thinks it was soldiers who cut him down and drove him to a Saudi

hospital. He was so badly injured that when he awoke doctors had

amputated his left arm. He thinks his friends are probably dead.

Despite the fact that so few make it, there is no sign that the flow

of migrants is ebbing. And people trafficking in Yemen is worth tens

of millions of dollars. You are looking at thousands of people and

you are looking at the amount of money that's going back and forth,

it must have been huge for these numbers to be here. Human

trafficking is one of the most profitable businesses in the world

now. If you perceive the numbers, it seems there is big business

going on. People smuggling generates profit at every stage of

the journey. Everyone has a stake, from the Ethiopian borders through

the Yemeni military through to the guards at the Saudi border.

Stopping this will require a serious international effort. For

the moment those efforts are just beginning. But still, the

Ethiopians come. 40,000 migrants arrived in Yemen during the first

five months of this year. Those new migrants will still head for the

Saudi border, they will still face exploitation, beatings and rape.

And the undertaker will continue to bury the dead. So, were you in the

pro-flip-flop camp last night, was the skirt too twice, too patriotic,

or the skirt too short or long, women broadcasters have got through

an intense sexist focus on how they look, sportswomen we might guess

have too. The comments by John Inverdale about Marion Bartoli at

Wimbledon, were unusual because they were said outloud. But sexism

is alive and kicking in sport. Maria Miller boycotted the Open

championship held at a male-only club. Harriet Harman challenged her

to go further and boycott all, all- male clubs.

One more thing, it is a great model, it goes like a bomb and the car's

not bad either. Alan Partridge making his name on the Day Today

two decades ago. Smoky lady.His attitude isn't that far off John

Inverdale, during his Wimbledon coverage. I wonder if her dad did

say to her when she was 12, 13, 14 maybe, listen you are never going

to be a looker, you are never going to be someone with long legs so you

have to compensate with that, you are going to have to be the most

dogged, determined fighter than anyone has seen on the tennis court.

Inverdale apologised to Bartoli, this week Maria Miller demanded to

know what further action the director of the BBC would be taking.

Tony Hall hit back that it had been made clear his comments were

unacceptable, but said the BBC would continue to enhance coverage

of women's sport. Everyone thought the world of women's sport would

change after the Olympic Games, but a two-week tournament won't do that.

It highlights to us if you give women that platform they can

perform and achieve at the highest level. It is more complicated to

get women into the papers all year round. This weekend sports fans

will have to choose between the golf at the Open, the Ashes and

Tour de France, maybe women's sport can't compare. All you have to do

is watch the World Cup, it was on this year in January in India, it

was the women's cricket World Cup, it was fantastic, great cricket,

there were tight games, sixes, boundaries, wickets, it was just as

exciting as any mens' World Cup. It is ignorance on the part of most

people, because they haven't come across it. Europe get ready,

England are coming to take on your best. The BBC and other

broadcasters have committed to increasing coverage of women's

sport. The BBC heavily trailed its coverage of the Euro 2012

tournament. And England's matches have viewer figures of more than a

million. But, flick through the sports pages and it doesn't much

look like a woman's world, wait there is a girl? Well a girlfriend.

When it comes to deciding what subjects we cover in the newspaper,

but all the research we do indicates the vast majority of the

readers of the sports section are men, even of the quarter of our

readers who are female, a lot prefers sport. It is not a problem

I can solve on my own by putting women into the paper, it needs a

more radical approach. consolation is we are not the only

ones with a problem, this the ad the German public broadcaster did

to promote its team in the European tournament. Joining us now Harriet

Harman the shadow Culture Secretary, who has launched a campaign to

improve the coverage of women's sports and ban all-male sports

clubs. And Louise Hazel who competed in the hepathlon at the

Olympic Games last year. Talks through your experience as a woman

in sport, have you always been aware of sexism? Yes, definitely.

Unfortunately you know going back just to 20123, tome mates, myself

and also from Team GB were subject to comments about our weight in our

preparations for one of the biggest competitions of our lives. We only

have to looks a far back as 2011 to the sports personality nominees to

see that there were no female nomination, that to me was a major

indication of there still exists the problem of sexism in sport.

there no nominations because there isn't as much coverage in the first

place? Yes, I think it is definitely something that needs to

be addressed. It is definitely moving forward and improving.

Having seen the women's football and cricket mentioned there. But it

is definitely still a work in progress. But I feel there were

women that were Wellworthy of nominations but more important --

well worthy of nominations but were perhaps overshadowed by male

performances. I don't think the people nominating, some of the

men's magazines mentioned who didn't feel that women were worthy

or deserving of the publicity they deserved. You have done coverage,

you have done modelling shoots for GQ and all the rest of it, was that

a pressure to, I don't know to get coverage for the sport or did you

feel objectifyed by doing that? for me it was a personal choice. I

think every female sports person should be able to express

themselves in their own way. But by no means under pressure. To give in

to that sense of being objectfied by males. For me that was something

that was personal. You just started golf. Do you want to play it, do

you feel looked out of a major part of the golfing world? I feel

bringing a ban to all-male membership clubs would be a step in

the right direction. Last year I was invited to a number of golf

days I was surprised the fact that there were no female facilities and

I had to go and get changed in the spa. Which definitely made me feel

like a second rate citizen, it didn't make me feel comfortable.

Maria Miller straight away batted back your suggestion to ban all-

male clubs, where do you go from here? I didn't know she had done

that. Addison appointing. David Cameron, the Prime Minister -- that

is disappointing. David Cameron said in relation to the Muirfield,

it is old fashioned, it is an knackism, men-only golf clubs

should be a thing of the past, I welcomed that. Nick Clegg, the

Deputy Prime Minister said it shouldn't be happening. Maria

Miller herself is objecting to it sufficient to do a boycott. And my

point is, that actually there is an exemption for men-only sports clubs

which allows them to carry on discriminating, that is in the

Equality Act t allows them an exemption. I'm saying instead of

ringing your hands and speaking out against them, why not have a cross-

party alliance and say if you are running a sports club you have to

allow women in on the same terms as men. But also the point Louise was

making about sponsorship. It is incredible that 0.5% of the

sponsorship that there is, commercial sponsorship goes to men,

goes to women, sorry, for men it is 99.5%. And therefore the women have

to get sponsorship you know, and yet women got a third of the

Olympic medals and nearly half of the Paralympic medals and yet 0.5 %

of the sponsorship. The Government money that goes into sport, there

is a lot of money that rightly goes into sport, the lion's share of

this public money goes to men in sport and it is public money that

should go equally to women. Would you like there to be equal coverage

right now on the BBC elsewhere of women's sports, would you like to

say 50-50? I would like them to do much more to give a proper showing

for women's sport. I actually think. But you wouldn't legislation, you

wouldn't say come on we have to do this? I wouldn't legislation for

the BBC or even commercial broadcasters to legislate for their

editorial content. But one of the things that I think we should do

right now, because there is a whole load of things that have come

together on this is that the parliamentary Select Committee on

culture, media and sport, ought ought to do an inquiry into women's

sports. Back to the golf course, did it worry you that Muirfield was

a all-male club in 2002 when it held the championships and you were

in power? In the Equality Act that I took through parliament, we

actually put that exemption in because we couldn't get an

agreement to end the exemption. There has always been this

exemption for men-only sports clubs I wanted to take it out but we were

having so many rows on so many things we should have. Now is the

time to do it now that the Prime Minister is saying that he is

against it. Now they are in power? There is cross-party agreement on,

we didn't want the act to fall because of that. There is a chance

to amend it. Louise, what would be the single most important thing as

a woman athlete? For there to be justice after London 2012 won ban

on male-membership only clubs. We have earned that right and proved

to ourselves we are worthy of competing on a world stage and

being successful on it. I think as part of the Olympic legacy that is

something that should definitely be addressed. Thank you very much.

What are we to make of the cor relation between lower crime

figures and fewer police figures, the latest figures show crime

falling down to 9%, all that with fewer PCs, is it a statistical

anomally, a lag between one set of figures and the next. Or is it a

whole new way of thinking of ring- fencing, the slaughtering of some

sacred cows. It is not obvious why we should want to hark back to 1981.

There was the rioting, the Cold War was alive and well. The CND wanted

the rally to be a demonstration. Charles and Di were taking their

first steps into a deeply dysfuntional marriage. Speaking of

splits, the breakaway SDP was formed. It is also the year that

the British Crime Survey was born. It showed that crime figures were

shooting upwards, peaking in the mid-1990s, only now, more than 30

years later is crime back down to around the 1981 level. In west

London the Prime Minister got the kind of reception politicians can

only dream of. That is not the only reason why he had reason to smile.

People don't expect crime figures to fall during an economic downturn.

This is good news, we see a reduction both in recorded crime

and in the British Crime Survey, showing that crime now is at its

lowest level since 1981. We should congratulate the police, as a

Government we have asked them to do more, but with less resources and

they have performed, I think, magnificently. I think also all the

work that's gone into crime prevention has made a difference

too. But this is good news, Britain is getting safer as well as

stronger. This photo opportunity with officers in their latest

gizmos, is designed to show that good policing isn't all about the

number of bobbies you employ. But how efficient they are. By 2015 the

police are expected to have cut 15,000 jobs. This is a pretty

golden day politically for the Government. They are able to say

that they are keeping us safer for less money? I don't think it is a

golden day for the Government. I think it is a golden day for the

hard working police officers up and down the country who have responded

to the savage cuts the Government imposed on the Police Servicement

despite that we are trying to keep service at a level -- Police

Service. Despite that we are trying to keep service on the level. We

are at breaking points and the cuts for the next 12-18 months are going

to impact on crime figures and on public safety, despite the best

efforts of police forces around the country. Can the Government or the

police really take credit for the numbers falling, afterall this is

what's happening to crime in many European countries.

Criminalologists can't agree on what's happening. Some explanations

are simple, we bang more people up, CCTV, some are surprising, young

people drink less, and some are bizarre, there is less lead in

petrol and paint. Maybe we are not asking the right question. If we

take in say the last 200 years, we go back to the 19th century and

take ourselves through to the Second World War, what we see is a

long-term decline in crime. Decade after decade. And it is only after

the Second World War that we see crime start to increase and

increase very significantly. So the question we should really be asking

ourselves is why the increase after the Second World War, not why it is

declining now. It has to be a good day for any Government when they

can claim to be safer and to have saved money. Is it interesting for

another political reason, does it get easier for the Government to

argue that it is possible to deliver high-quality public

services on less money. What we have seen in policing has been a

reform to how services work, reform to the work force, reform to how we

organise policing, better use of technology, transformed delivery.

And what the Government now needs to reflebt, it is fantastic they

have recognised the achievements. What the Government now needs to

reflect is can we achieve the same in other services such as health,

education? Can crime be compared to education, when there seems to be

so little agreement about why it happens, and whether Government

ever has much effect on whether it goes up or down? Professor David

Spiegelhalter is the Professor of Understanding Risk at Cambridge

University, and author of The Norm Chronicles. Thank you very much for

joining us. It seems such a neat co-relation, how do you read the

numbers? As a sceptical statistician I ask do I believe the

numbers at all? In this case I do, it isth has backed up the police

statistic -- because it has backed up the police statistics, and the

crime survey for England and Wales. That is essentially looking at what

the experience of lot of people and their families. As a statistician I

would tend to believe that more. I do believe the figures that they

are really going down. But the crucial thing is to look at the

long-term trends, not just what has happened from last year. There is

9% reduction in crime, which is great. But as you have heard in the

report, there has been long-term trends from the 80s, it went up to

the mid-90s, and then it has been coming down relentlessly. The

change, the going up and down seems to be independent of the economic

condition of the country. It is fantastic news that it is coming

down, but there again it is coming down all over Europe and America

and so on. And so trying to produce some simple explanation of why that

is the case, yoing that is possible. Zo -- I don't think that is

possible. Zoe raised the question of whether it was the Government

and down to Government actions, what do you think are the plausible

explanations for this? If you see it as a sort of pan-European trend?

I think, you know, this is a deep social -- sociological matter that

can be put down to explanation. We have heard of some of them and

another is that for example cars are much more difficult to break in

to. All that sort of petty crime is more difficult to take place. This

implausible one about the lead in petrol has got an increasing amount

of scientific backing that there is a 20-year lag between a substantial

amount of lead in the petrol and paint, and children's exposure,

small children and what they might get up to when they are older. And

there is always sorts of explanations about these things

that are not actually attributable to very simple changes and

expenditure on policing whatever. But you could say that at least you

know any changes to the Government that they have done have not

actually stopped this extraordinarily, and very welcome

downward trend. If we took that one step further and said maybe

reducing police numbers even more could cut crime even more. Why

doesn't that work as an equation? You know to make some rather simple

causal explanation for these things I think would be very misleading

indeed. Just to make an analogy, bicycle helmets, it seems

completely obvious that bicycle helmets save lives, if you make

them compulsory you will reduce head injuries. That is what has

happened, head injuries have gone down in country and states that

have introduced mandatory cycle helmets. When you look to the

states and Canada that haven't introduced the measures, the rates

have gone down at the same rates, there was no effect of the

mandatory laws. You can't make the simple causal explanations between

trends, and to say therefore if we do this it will go down even

further. You write a lot about the sort of human factor, that's in

risk as well. What do you think the public believes in terms of crime

at the moment, what is your sense? A recent survey by the Royal

Statistical Society, the majority of people think crime is going up.

Only about a quarter of people think crime is going down, which it

has been for nearly 20 years. You feel this is really unfortunate.

People also have a feeling, actually a rather small number of

people think that crime is a big problem in their area. A lot of

people think it is a big problem for the country. I'm afraid to

point the finger it has to go at the media. Almost the rarer events

occur the bigger coverage they get and people think that these

problems are really there when they have been going down. Homicides

were at 550 last year, that is almost half the Number Ten years

ago. That is a staggering achievement. -- half the number,

ten years ago. That is a staggering achievement. Thank you very much

indeed. Let's just before we go That's all from tonight, I will be

back tomorrow from all of us here a back tomorrow from all of us here a

Hello, today's hot spot was Bournemouth at 30.5. It wasn't as

hot in south-east England, the areas seeing the highest

temperature near 30 expanded further west. It is going to be

another day of soaring temperatures to the western side of the UK.

Further west you are in Northern Ireland, 28 degrees, could well see

that in western Scotland. A hotter day to come here. Some cloud

hugging the coast to the north in places, but the cloud brushing the

coast of north-east England. Clouds to eastern areas will be more of an

issue going into the weekend. It will feel cooler towards eastern

coastal counties of England we may shave another degree off south-east

England. With the sunshine and shade and the Eastleigh breeze is

feels refreshing. For south-west England and North West England, the

shot spots will be in the high 20s, to 30 there may be a late day in

the North West of England. A hard thing to find if you are looking

for. At Lords more sunshine to come here. Looking at things going to

the start of the weekend, across the eastern side of Scotland and

eastern England, there will be a lot of cloud around to start the

day and for some eastern coastal counties in particular, some of

that cloud will not clear and temperatures will be held down as a