18/07/2013 Newsnight


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines. With Emily Maitlis.

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Thousands take to the streets of Moscow as the main opposition


leader is jailed in what protestors call a show trial. Alexei Navalny,


sentenced to five years for fraud, was his real crime simply to be a


political threat. As Putin's brutal state, has it created a martyr for


the opposition? We hear from Moscow. Also tonight, one of the most


dangerous journeys on earth, the horrific abuse, kidnap and rape of


thousands of African migrants with who try to cross Yemen in the


Police numbers down, crime down too. Does that mean we can have an even


smaller police force? As a great model t goes like a bomb, and the


cars's not bad either. Years after all Partridge, has anything changed


for sexism in court, Harriet Harman says just ban any all-male clubs.


Good evening, Russia's opposition leader was sent to prison today,


his crime, probably that of being too popular, too threatening to one


Vladimir Putin. Alexei Navalny's show trial has sparked protests on


the streets of Moscow and condemnation from around the world.


He signed off with his supporters "don't dawdle the frog won't jump


from the oil pipes himself", that loses something in translation. We


ask tonight if the opposition movement is dead, or if Putin has


created a martyr. How will the west deal with one more round of Putin's


political bullying. It is OK, try not to miss me says


Alexei Navalny's last tweet before they took him down. And most of all


he said "don't be lazy". He will do five years in prison for fraud. His


real crime, say his supporters, was to become the leader of the


opposition movement which swept Russia's streets after the 2011


election. This verdict is a sign of fear from the authorities. They are


afraid to let even the slightest competition in the political


process. I believe that these events are just another step and it


will lead to widening of the political support and of the public


opinion in favour of political change and liberalisation of


political processes in Russia. Russian prosecutors made it clear


they targeted Navalny and sped up the prosecution against him because


of his public role. All the evidence against him came from one


co-defendant who had turned state's witness, who the defence were not


allowed to cross-examine. Navalny, a law graduate, rose to fame as a


blogger, he is posing alleged corruption in Russian business and


politics. He dubbed Putin's party "the party of crooks and thieves".


When evidence of ballot-rigginging emerged in the election of December


2011, Navalny's influence moved off the Internet and on to the streets.


As the demonstrations grew, the sight of the left, alongside


liberals and nationalists terrified Putin. And behind Navalny there are


scores of acts, like this woman, whose lives have been invaded by


the authorities for their role in the demos. For example the


authorities came to my flat with the childcare and asked if I'm a


bad mother. And they told me that they had some whistleblower


information that I hit my son. That is not true. They asked what


English books are doing on the shelves. Books in English and they


told me that's very bad that I have books in two languages. That was


actually, they talked to the childcare. That was just


intimidation. Navalny's harsh sentence comes after the jailing of


Pussy Riot, after they staged a protest in Moscow's Cathedral. And


last month, Vladimir Putin took Russian justice to new territory


with the posthumous trial of Sergei Magnitzi, an opposition lawyer,


widely believed to have been murdered in custody. This was the


final step in Russia's transition of being a managed democracy to


outright dictatorship. Putin is used to sustaining his position


through consent to some extent. It may have been manipulated but it


may have been genuinely there. Now the system can only sustain through


fear. All the people who have posed a threat to Vladimir Putin are


either in exile, in prison or dead. Navalny's latest gambit had been to


stand for election as Mayor of Moscow, where he was running second.


He will be barred from the election now. Even though life has got


better for most Russians under Vladimir Putin checkically, there


is still money flowing out of the country because the -- economically,


there is still money flowing out of the country because the rich don't


trust the system. Navalny stood it old liberals and appealing to some


nationalists and the left. The nationalists form part of Putin's


base, this was highly convenient for Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Putin


will doubtlessly try to use St Petersburg to strengthen his


support at home and legitimacy abroad. It is very important that


western leaders don't collaborate in allowing him to do that. I don't


expect that President Obama or David Cameron or Angela Merkel will


refuse to take part in the summit, and nor should they. But I think it


is very important they say publicly and to Vladimir Putin's face


privately that they consider Alexei Navalny to be a political prisoner


and his continued imprisonment to be a violation of Russia's


international norms. After the verdict the protests were muted.


More watching and waiting than action. It didn't stop the Russian


police from their time-honoured response. But the Kremlin will


watch nervously the political reaction in weeks to come.


A little earlier I spoke to an anti-Putin dissident granted asylum


here in Britain after he fled Russia amid fears of for his life,


and Sergei Markov. I started on the subject of how fair the trial was.


The judge barred the defence from calling 13 key witnesses, defence


lawyers weren't allowed to cross- examine their key witness, even


your federal investigative committee admitted that Navalny had,


as they said, made himself a target by his activism. That is pretty


much an admission? Know, of course we have a lot of different


activists, we have very active political rivals of Vladimir Putin.


A lot of them and none of them was regarded as guilty for corruption.


To be in a position it does not mean that you are absolutely not


corrupt. Most of the opposition is not corrupt, they continue their


activities. And one opposition appeared to be corrupted, it is


Alexei Navalny. Have you read the case of Navalny? Have you read the


huge case or not, or just you think that he was corrupt? It is not


about Navalny, today what happened Russia showed the world that every


person who has a different opinion to the Government, from the Putin


regime, this person could be detained and sent to prison for


their political views. We both know in Russia we don't have independent


courts or freedoms and rights. How you could say that he was corrupt


by this court in Kirov? It is not a court. You know it is the court, it


is a court recognised by your political friends as guilty, that


is not a military court. We see in every European country such kind of


accusations of courts from those politicians who regard it as to be


corrupted. Recognise that Alexei Navalny stole this money. What's


left of the movement that had so much traction back in December of


2011? The problem is that it's not, this case is not about Navalny. Of


course this is a case about all Russian people who are living now


in the country. This case has shown that Putin's regime will fight with


the people like Alexei Navalny. haven't got enough of the people


behind you, when we saw this kind of outrage in the Arab Spring, we


saw revolution, why haven't we seen it in Russia? The problem is TV


propaganda, all the TV in Russian and most of the newspapers are


ruled by the Kremlin. They are maybe not officially ruled by the


Kremlin as they have official newspapers, but we know that co-


operation from the Kremlin, people who are around Putin. That is the


same in every regime where they have a leader that they want to


overthrow, of course you can always say propaganda? The problem is


people couldn't get true information, they couldn't analyse


information. They got only information from official TV


channels. And hasn't President Putin done the most wonderful thing


for Navalny tonight, a shot in the arm, he has made him a martyr?


You know, first of all it is our colleague just informed you about


the situation with the media. I agree that most of the channels,


but not for sure not all of the T channels, but the majority -- TV


channels, but the majority support the Government. Most of the print


media, especially central Moscow print media most of them are very


critical to the Government and even close to opposition. So it is


absolutely not true that the Russian people don't look at the


Russian people has stupid people who have no information. No. (all


speaking at once) because the Internet for the Russian population.


How many people use the Internet. Let's tell the truth to the world,


come on. Andrei Sidelnikov, let me move you on, tomorrow we are going


to see the G20 in Russia, leaders from all over the world, would you


like to see prop action against that now? I think that leaders from


the European countries or the United States they could tell Mr


Putin that in Russia there is no freedoms and rights. And they need


to ban Russia from G8, first of all, they need to tell him that they


will boycott the Olympic Games in 20 14, next year if the Russian


people can't be given the constitution for freedom of human


rights. People are support such a politician which won't (all


speaking at once) Thank you both very much. It is absolutely


outrageous, this is sick but not political group. They are hated by


their own people, because they hate their own country. We don't hate,


come on. Thank you very much indeed. Later in the programme:


Football and sitting on washing machines. Is this broadly how we


see women and supported? It is one of the most dangerous journeys


anyone can make, it is one of the biggest economic migrations in the


world. Every months thousands from across the Horn of Africa try to


reach the farms and factories of Saudi Arabia trying to better their


lives. But to do so they must cross through Djibouti, the strait of


Babel, and up through Yemen where they fall prey to people


traffickers, kidnappers, sexual abuse and torture. There is


evidence that the Yemeni military is involved in people trafficking


and that sexual abuse. Some of the my grants' -- migrants' stories, as


you can imagine are horrific. This is the undertaker of Harad.


This is a Yemeni smuggling town on the border of Saudi Arabia. For


centuries the town has thrived on gun running and drugs smuggling.


Now the commodity is people. Today they are burying an Ethiopian,


another migrant found dead at the The journey that ends in death for


so many begins here. 300 miles to the south. This man is a people


trafficker. He ferries migrants across the Red Sea. He says his


smuggling ring will make $300 per person, he must pay a cut to the


He carries 40 people in his boat, they risk dehydration and exposure,


some boats are so full that people suffocate. The migrants are


desperate for work, and the promise of a better life in Saudi Arabia.


But first, they must cross Yemen. Criminal gangs roam freely, robbery,


abuse and sexual exploitation are common place. Migrants face being


caught, tortured and sold for profit. Thousands arrive on these


shores every month. These pictures show soldiers combing the beach.


They will take the migrants to camps run by the Red Cross. But we


have evidence that some soldiers are working with the people


Haile experienced the shakedown, says those who can pay are released,


those without are sold to kidnappers, kidnappeders who


torture. -- kidnappers who torture. Haile was held in what is known as


a torture camp. Thousands of migrants are being kidnapped and


beaten in torture camps across Yemen. Haile was tortured until his


family paid the ranson to release him. -- ranson to release him.


Getting past the beach is just the first step in this extraordinary


journey. Saudi Arabia is still a 300 mile walk through the desert.


We met these migrants on their way to the border town of Harad. They


have been walking for 40 days. Where are you going? Saudi.What do


you expect to find when you get there? Have you had any trouble so


Yemen is a failing state, the turbulence of the Arab Spring led


to the ousting of the President, and an erosion of Government power.


In this vacuum the migrants can cross Yemen, but gangs of


kidnappers and torturers can also operate at will. Ift car had made


the journey with friends, they had come looking for work, hoping to


make money for their families. He was kidnapped, and his father was


told he needed to pay $3 pun pun to release him. He was told to borrow


the money and wire it toe kidnappers. This footage shows the


inside of a torture camp, it was shot by Medecins sans frontier,


during a series of Government raids in April. Over 1600 migrants were


freed. Many had been beaten, some had their finger nails pulled out


or their tongues partially cut off. Others said they had been beaten


with pipes, burned with cigarettes or had linment poured in their eyes.


The new gang wanted another $250, his father couldn't borrow any more


money. None of the families comfortable This man is 23, he will


He's now at this centre in Harad, inside these walls the migrants are


safe. The centre is full of people who have been tortured, it is run


by the International Orgaization for Migration. This is a


humanitarian crisis, the main thing that we need to provide them with


is voluntary return. Everybody wants to go to their country of


origin. They are shocked by the reality that they have faced.


me your henna? Iftar is 17. She walked 300 miles over the Ethiopian


mountains to Djibouti, there she paid the traffickers to ferry her


to Yemen. She and her friends were Iftar was kept at the camp for


three months. She was too ashamed by what the gang was doing to call


her parents and ask for money. So she was raped every day. Then I


asked Iftar who the kidnappers were? Asma is 16, she got all the


way to the Saudi border before she was arrested by Yemeni soldiers.


How do you know that money was exchanged did you see it? Do you


know how much money you were sold for? She was raped by two,


sometimes three men every day for two months. She got out because one


of her captors, she says, felt pity for her. I spoke to some of the


people who run this camp and they say they have heard other stories


like this. That men in Yemeni military fatigues captured women,


sold them to rapists and in some cases raped them themselves. We


requested an interview with the Yemeni Government about the


treatment of migrants, but our request was declined. There are 200


torture camps in this part of yes mam machine alone. A local judge


offers a safe passage to visit one. One of his soldiers accompanies --


Yemen alone. A local judge offers safe passage to give one, a guard


comes with us to keep us safe. When we arrive one of the guards runs


off, he's gone to find the owner. Inside there are two guards and


five migrants. We asked them if they have been abused? I ask have


they tried to escape? We spot the entrance to a small room at the


edge of the compound. Can we go inside? The soldier says this is


where they take the women, he says what is going on behind the door


could be haram, meaning forbidden. We have just been told the room


here is what the torturers use for rape. We can hear the sound of a


man and a woman in the room. A man appears with a pistol on his belt,


he is the owner of the camp. Does torture exist here? Are there any


women in this farm? We are escorted out. We do not know for sure what


was taking place in the room at the back. But the men we spoke to were


being held against their will. With then spoke to a senior local police


officer, we told him what we had seen, the next day all the migrants


in the camp were released. This is the Saudi border, these mountains,


the final barrier to the Promised Land. Behind the ridges are


thermal-images cameras, electric fencing and a flood lit security


barrier. It is now an almost impossible crossing. Haile had


survived the torture camp, he had walked 300 miles across the desert.


Haile hung from that tree for two days. He remembers very little, but


he thinks it was soldiers who cut him down and drove him to a Saudi


hospital. He was so badly injured that when he awoke doctors had


amputated his left arm. He thinks his friends are probably dead.


Despite the fact that so few make it, there is no sign that the flow


of migrants is ebbing. And people trafficking in Yemen is worth tens


of millions of dollars. You are looking at thousands of people and


you are looking at the amount of money that's going back and forth,


it must have been huge for these numbers to be here. Human


trafficking is one of the most profitable businesses in the world


now. If you perceive the numbers, it seems there is big business


going on. People smuggling generates profit at every stage of


the journey. Everyone has a stake, from the Ethiopian borders through


the Yemeni military through to the guards at the Saudi border.


Stopping this will require a serious international effort. For


the moment those efforts are just beginning. But still, the


Ethiopians come. 40,000 migrants arrived in Yemen during the first


five months of this year. Those new migrants will still head for the


Saudi border, they will still face exploitation, beatings and rape.


And the undertaker will continue to bury the dead. So, were you in the


pro-flip-flop camp last night, was the skirt too twice, too patriotic,


or the skirt too short or long, women broadcasters have got through


an intense sexist focus on how they look, sportswomen we might guess


have too. The comments by John Inverdale about Marion Bartoli at


Wimbledon, were unusual because they were said outloud. But sexism


is alive and kicking in sport. Maria Miller boycotted the Open


championship held at a male-only club. Harriet Harman challenged her


to go further and boycott all, all- male clubs.


One more thing, it is a great model, it goes like a bomb and the car's


not bad either. Alan Partridge making his name on the Day Today


two decades ago. Smoky lady.His attitude isn't that far off John


Inverdale, during his Wimbledon coverage. I wonder if her dad did


say to her when she was 12, 13, 14 maybe, listen you are never going


to be a looker, you are never going to be someone with long legs so you


have to compensate with that, you are going to have to be the most


dogged, determined fighter than anyone has seen on the tennis court.


Inverdale apologised to Bartoli, this week Maria Miller demanded to


know what further action the director of the BBC would be taking.


Tony Hall hit back that it had been made clear his comments were


unacceptable, but said the BBC would continue to enhance coverage


of women's sport. Everyone thought the world of women's sport would


change after the Olympic Games, but a two-week tournament won't do that.


It highlights to us if you give women that platform they can


perform and achieve at the highest level. It is more complicated to


get women into the papers all year round. This weekend sports fans


will have to choose between the golf at the Open, the Ashes and


Tour de France, maybe women's sport can't compare. All you have to do


is watch the World Cup, it was on this year in January in India, it


was the women's cricket World Cup, it was fantastic, great cricket,


there were tight games, sixes, boundaries, wickets, it was just as


exciting as any mens' World Cup. It is ignorance on the part of most


people, because they haven't come across it. Europe get ready,


England are coming to take on your best. The BBC and other


broadcasters have committed to increasing coverage of women's


sport. The BBC heavily trailed its coverage of the Euro 2012


tournament. And England's matches have viewer figures of more than a


million. But, flick through the sports pages and it doesn't much


look like a woman's world, wait there is a girl? Well a girlfriend.


When it comes to deciding what subjects we cover in the newspaper,


but all the research we do indicates the vast majority of the


readers of the sports section are men, even of the quarter of our


readers who are female, a lot prefers sport. It is not a problem


I can solve on my own by putting women into the paper, it needs a


more radical approach. consolation is we are not the only


ones with a problem, this the ad the German public broadcaster did


to promote its team in the European tournament. Joining us now Harriet


Harman the shadow Culture Secretary, who has launched a campaign to


improve the coverage of women's sports and ban all-male sports


clubs. And Louise Hazel who competed in the hepathlon at the


Olympic Games last year. Talks through your experience as a woman


in sport, have you always been aware of sexism? Yes, definitely.


Unfortunately you know going back just to 20123, tome mates, myself


and also from Team GB were subject to comments about our weight in our


preparations for one of the biggest competitions of our lives. We only


have to looks a far back as 2011 to the sports personality nominees to


see that there were no female nomination, that to me was a major


indication of there still exists the problem of sexism in sport.


there no nominations because there isn't as much coverage in the first


place? Yes, I think it is definitely something that needs to


be addressed. It is definitely moving forward and improving.


Having seen the women's football and cricket mentioned there. But it


is definitely still a work in progress. But I feel there were


women that were Wellworthy of nominations but more important --


well worthy of nominations but were perhaps overshadowed by male


performances. I don't think the people nominating, some of the


men's magazines mentioned who didn't feel that women were worthy


or deserving of the publicity they deserved. You have done coverage,


you have done modelling shoots for GQ and all the rest of it, was that


a pressure to, I don't know to get coverage for the sport or did you


feel objectifyed by doing that? for me it was a personal choice. I


think every female sports person should be able to express


themselves in their own way. But by no means under pressure. To give in


to that sense of being objectfied by males. For me that was something


that was personal. You just started golf. Do you want to play it, do


you feel looked out of a major part of the golfing world? I feel


bringing a ban to all-male membership clubs would be a step in


the right direction. Last year I was invited to a number of golf


days I was surprised the fact that there were no female facilities and


I had to go and get changed in the spa. Which definitely made me feel


like a second rate citizen, it didn't make me feel comfortable.


Maria Miller straight away batted back your suggestion to ban all-


male clubs, where do you go from here? I didn't know she had done


that. Addison appointing. David Cameron, the Prime Minister -- that


is disappointing. David Cameron said in relation to the Muirfield,


it is old fashioned, it is an knackism, men-only golf clubs


should be a thing of the past, I welcomed that. Nick Clegg, the


Deputy Prime Minister said it shouldn't be happening. Maria


Miller herself is objecting to it sufficient to do a boycott. And my


point is, that actually there is an exemption for men-only sports clubs


which allows them to carry on discriminating, that is in the


Equality Act t allows them an exemption. I'm saying instead of


ringing your hands and speaking out against them, why not have a cross-


party alliance and say if you are running a sports club you have to


allow women in on the same terms as men. But also the point Louise was


making about sponsorship. It is incredible that 0.5% of the


sponsorship that there is, commercial sponsorship goes to men,


goes to women, sorry, for men it is 99.5%. And therefore the women have


to get sponsorship you know, and yet women got a third of the


Olympic medals and nearly half of the Paralympic medals and yet 0.5 %


of the sponsorship. The Government money that goes into sport, there


is a lot of money that rightly goes into sport, the lion's share of


this public money goes to men in sport and it is public money that


should go equally to women. Would you like there to be equal coverage


right now on the BBC elsewhere of women's sports, would you like to


say 50-50? I would like them to do much more to give a proper showing


for women's sport. I actually think. But you wouldn't legislation, you


wouldn't say come on we have to do this? I wouldn't legislation for


the BBC or even commercial broadcasters to legislate for their


editorial content. But one of the things that I think we should do


right now, because there is a whole load of things that have come


together on this is that the parliamentary Select Committee on


culture, media and sport, ought ought to do an inquiry into women's


sports. Back to the golf course, did it worry you that Muirfield was


a all-male club in 2002 when it held the championships and you were


in power? In the Equality Act that I took through parliament, we


actually put that exemption in because we couldn't get an


agreement to end the exemption. There has always been this


exemption for men-only sports clubs I wanted to take it out but we were


having so many rows on so many things we should have. Now is the


time to do it now that the Prime Minister is saying that he is


against it. Now they are in power? There is cross-party agreement on,


we didn't want the act to fall because of that. There is a chance


to amend it. Louise, what would be the single most important thing as


a woman athlete? For there to be justice after London 2012 won ban


on male-membership only clubs. We have earned that right and proved


to ourselves we are worthy of competing on a world stage and


being successful on it. I think as part of the Olympic legacy that is


something that should definitely be addressed. Thank you very much.


What are we to make of the cor relation between lower crime


figures and fewer police figures, the latest figures show crime


falling down to 9%, all that with fewer PCs, is it a statistical


anomally, a lag between one set of figures and the next. Or is it a


whole new way of thinking of ring- fencing, the slaughtering of some


sacred cows. It is not obvious why we should want to hark back to 1981.


There was the rioting, the Cold War was alive and well. The CND wanted


the rally to be a demonstration. Charles and Di were taking their


first steps into a deeply dysfuntional marriage. Speaking of


splits, the breakaway SDP was formed. It is also the year that


the British Crime Survey was born. It showed that crime figures were


shooting upwards, peaking in the mid-1990s, only now, more than 30


years later is crime back down to around the 1981 level. In west


London the Prime Minister got the kind of reception politicians can


only dream of. That is not the only reason why he had reason to smile.


People don't expect crime figures to fall during an economic downturn.


This is good news, we see a reduction both in recorded crime


and in the British Crime Survey, showing that crime now is at its


lowest level since 1981. We should congratulate the police, as a


Government we have asked them to do more, but with less resources and


they have performed, I think, magnificently. I think also all the


work that's gone into crime prevention has made a difference


too. But this is good news, Britain is getting safer as well as


stronger. This photo opportunity with officers in their latest


gizmos, is designed to show that good policing isn't all about the


number of bobbies you employ. But how efficient they are. By 2015 the


police are expected to have cut 15,000 jobs. This is a pretty


golden day politically for the Government. They are able to say


that they are keeping us safer for less money? I don't think it is a


golden day for the Government. I think it is a golden day for the


hard working police officers up and down the country who have responded


to the savage cuts the Government imposed on the Police Servicement


despite that we are trying to keep service at a level -- Police


Service. Despite that we are trying to keep service on the level. We


are at breaking points and the cuts for the next 12-18 months are going


to impact on crime figures and on public safety, despite the best


efforts of police forces around the country. Can the Government or the


police really take credit for the numbers falling, afterall this is


what's happening to crime in many European countries.


Criminalologists can't agree on what's happening. Some explanations


are simple, we bang more people up, CCTV, some are surprising, young


people drink less, and some are bizarre, there is less lead in


petrol and paint. Maybe we are not asking the right question. If we


take in say the last 200 years, we go back to the 19th century and


take ourselves through to the Second World War, what we see is a


long-term decline in crime. Decade after decade. And it is only after


the Second World War that we see crime start to increase and


increase very significantly. So the question we should really be asking


ourselves is why the increase after the Second World War, not why it is


declining now. It has to be a good day for any Government when they


can claim to be safer and to have saved money. Is it interesting for


another political reason, does it get easier for the Government to


argue that it is possible to deliver high-quality public


services on less money. What we have seen in policing has been a


reform to how services work, reform to the work force, reform to how we


organise policing, better use of technology, transformed delivery.


And what the Government now needs to reflebt, it is fantastic they


have recognised the achievements. What the Government now needs to


reflect is can we achieve the same in other services such as health,


education? Can crime be compared to education, when there seems to be


so little agreement about why it happens, and whether Government


ever has much effect on whether it goes up or down? Professor David


Spiegelhalter is the Professor of Understanding Risk at Cambridge


University, and author of The Norm Chronicles. Thank you very much for


joining us. It seems such a neat co-relation, how do you read the


numbers? As a sceptical statistician I ask do I believe the


numbers at all? In this case I do, it isth has backed up the police


statistic -- because it has backed up the police statistics, and the


crime survey for England and Wales. That is essentially looking at what


the experience of lot of people and their families. As a statistician I


would tend to believe that more. I do believe the figures that they


are really going down. But the crucial thing is to look at the


long-term trends, not just what has happened from last year. There is


9% reduction in crime, which is great. But as you have heard in the


report, there has been long-term trends from the 80s, it went up to


the mid-90s, and then it has been coming down relentlessly. The


change, the going up and down seems to be independent of the economic


condition of the country. It is fantastic news that it is coming


down, but there again it is coming down all over Europe and America


and so on. And so trying to produce some simple explanation of why that


is the case, yoing that is possible. Zo -- I don't think that is


possible. Zoe raised the question of whether it was the Government


and down to Government actions, what do you think are the plausible


explanations for this? If you see it as a sort of pan-European trend?


I think, you know, this is a deep social -- sociological matter that


can be put down to explanation. We have heard of some of them and


another is that for example cars are much more difficult to break in


to. All that sort of petty crime is more difficult to take place. This


implausible one about the lead in petrol has got an increasing amount


of scientific backing that there is a 20-year lag between a substantial


amount of lead in the petrol and paint, and children's exposure,


small children and what they might get up to when they are older. And


there is always sorts of explanations about these things


that are not actually attributable to very simple changes and


expenditure on policing whatever. But you could say that at least you


know any changes to the Government that they have done have not


actually stopped this extraordinarily, and very welcome


downward trend. If we took that one step further and said maybe


reducing police numbers even more could cut crime even more. Why


doesn't that work as an equation? You know to make some rather simple


causal explanation for these things I think would be very misleading


indeed. Just to make an analogy, bicycle helmets, it seems


completely obvious that bicycle helmets save lives, if you make


them compulsory you will reduce head injuries. That is what has


happened, head injuries have gone down in country and states that


have introduced mandatory cycle helmets. When you look to the


states and Canada that haven't introduced the measures, the rates


have gone down at the same rates, there was no effect of the


mandatory laws. You can't make the simple causal explanations between


trends, and to say therefore if we do this it will go down even


further. You write a lot about the sort of human factor, that's in


risk as well. What do you think the public believes in terms of crime


at the moment, what is your sense? A recent survey by the Royal


Statistical Society, the majority of people think crime is going up.


Only about a quarter of people think crime is going down, which it


has been for nearly 20 years. You feel this is really unfortunate.


People also have a feeling, actually a rather small number of


people think that crime is a big problem in their area. A lot of


people think it is a big problem for the country. I'm afraid to


point the finger it has to go at the media. Almost the rarer events


occur the bigger coverage they get and people think that these


problems are really there when they have been going down. Homicides


were at 550 last year, that is almost half the Number Ten years


ago. That is a staggering achievement. -- half the number,


ten years ago. That is a staggering achievement. Thank you very much


indeed. Let's just before we go That's all from tonight, I will be


back tomorrow from all of us here a back tomorrow from all of us here a


Hello, today's hot spot was Bournemouth at 30.5. It wasn't as


hot in south-east England, the areas seeing the highest


temperature near 30 expanded further west. It is going to be


another day of soaring temperatures to the western side of the UK.


Further west you are in Northern Ireland, 28 degrees, could well see


that in western Scotland. A hotter day to come here. Some cloud


hugging the coast to the north in places, but the cloud brushing the


coast of north-east England. Clouds to eastern areas will be more of an


issue going into the weekend. It will feel cooler towards eastern


coastal counties of England we may shave another degree off south-east


England. With the sunshine and shade and the Eastleigh breeze is


feels refreshing. For south-west England and North West England, the


shot spots will be in the high 20s, to 30 there may be a late day in


the North West of England. A hard thing to find if you are looking


for. At Lords more sunshine to come here. Looking at things going to


the start of the weekend, across the eastern side of Scotland and


eastern England, there will be a lot of cloud around to start the


day and for some eastern coastal counties in particular, some of


that cloud will not clear and temperatures will be held down as a


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines. With Emily Maitlis.