24/03/2014 Newsnight


24/03/2014

The day's headlines with Jeremy Paxman. The search for MH370's black box, British Islam by its Muslim critics, Ed Miliband's opinion poll blues and John Lennon's poetry.


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In the end it was physicists not search missions that extinguished

:00:09.:00:12.

the final hopes of relatives. Complex calculation of satellite

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pings confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt that flight MH370 crashed into

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the Southern Indian Ocean. The Malaysian authorities with the

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deftness we have now come to expect informed some relatives by text

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message. We now know the where but not the how or the why. The black

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box flight recorder has two weeks of battery power left. An oceanographer

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who knows the roaring 40s says it won't be easy to find in that time.

:00:47.:00:53.

This one-time radical Islamist brought a storm down on his head by

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not being offended by cartoons. He asks what's life like for Muslims

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who go outside the mainstream? We all ourselves an ex-Muslim, it is

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not enough to call myself an atheist, because the atheist in

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Britain doesn't face the same problems I do, getting death threats

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for leaving Islam. We will ask if this kind of portrayal is fair to

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Islam? And the art and poetry of the young John Lennon. As you all know,

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Harris won the general election with a very maul Marjorie over the

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torture, putting the Labour partly back into power after a large

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abscess, he couldn't have done that without the barking of the trade

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onions! The many relatives of the 239 people on board the missing

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millation airlines plane heard the news they never wanted to today,

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that the aircraft has definitely crashed into the Southern Indian

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Ocean. No wreckage has been recovered, but the end to hope does

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not mean an end to questions. Some of which may now never be answered.

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We have this report. Being told the worst this Chinese woman screams an

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anguished prayer to her Government to help mind MH370. This was the

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moment that the plane went from being officially missing to

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officially lost. Shortly after the families were told in private the

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Malaysian Prime Minister made the news public. Imnmauset has been able

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to shed more light on MH370's flight path, according to this new data,

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flight MH370 ended in the Southern Indian Ocean. The new information

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came from here in London at the headquarters of the British

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satellite company Inmarsat. What was the new information that you were

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able to give to the Malaysian authorities? It was a refinement on

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what we submitted on the 11th of March to the investigation. On the

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11th of March we were only able to give a direction of travel and then

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we had to whittle down the information to the north and south.

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What we did in the intervening time was to look at the network

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information, compare it with other Malaysian 777s that had flown and

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been connected to our network, and compare the northern route pattern

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with the southern route pattern. We discovered the southern route

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matched the signals we got over the intervening six or seven hours that

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we reported on the 11th and that narrowed down which direction you

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should be looking. The frequency of a signal will move whether or not

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you are moving towards the signal. This confirmed to Inmarsat that the

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plane could only have gone south. Given the capabilities of satellite

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technology, is it reasonable that planes don't routinely and regularly

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broadcast their exact position. You could have it tomorrow, an aircraft

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travelling at 470, 500 knots should be reporting every 15-minutes to

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half an hour. They had there would be no question where the aircraft

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was, even before it ran out of fuel. The sun is rising in western

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Australia, search aircraft will set out again looking for wreckage.

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Yesterday both Australian and Chinese planes reported multiple

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large objects in the sea. Surface vessels are on route. If wreckage is

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confirmed there is a long way to go to find out what happened. When Air

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France flight 447 crashed in 2009, the wreckage was found after five

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days. The flight recorders weren't located for nearly another two

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years. One factor in everyone's minds now, the sonar pingers

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attached to the voice and flight data recorders only have around 30

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days of battery life. In the case of the Malaysian Airlines flight it is

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18 days since it disappeared. Time is voning out. There are multiple

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phases to the search. It is finding the debris and tracking back to the

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impact point. The 477 flight gave us a broad area that was the area where

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the undersea search started. That involved using different types of

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equipment to listen to the pingers attached to the black box. And to

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stand the ocean bottom to finally find the debris field. Having been

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told what happened, the relatives of the passengers then could be years

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of finding out why they have lost so much. That is if they ever find out

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for sure. We have with us someone who worked on the recovery of the

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Air France wreckage in 2011. We have Steven Trimable from Flight

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International magazine also. What are the chances of finding why this

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plane came down? They are not good. Because first we have to find this

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wreckage, that will be a monumental task. It will be far more difficult

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than what we experienced with the Air France plane which up until that

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time was one of the most difficult challenges in turn for solving why

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an airliner crashed in the ocean. And this line that David Grossman

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was mentioning there about the black box which isn't black at all, it is

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orange. That's correct. Having only a couple of weeks battery life left

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on its transmitter, does that make it almost impossible to find or

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what? Virtually. We would have to be incredibly lucky to be able to

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detect that black box with, it is actually an acoustic pinger attached

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to the black box that is pinging, once a second for 30 days, nominally

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before that runs out. And the problem is, you need to be virtually

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right over the top of it, the detection range for a listening

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device to hear the pinger is less than 2,000 ms. We have been talking

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about searches of 10s of thousands of square nautical miles in the past

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four to five days. To think we go from that level of uncertainty to a

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spot in the ocean is improbable. The only thing that could come out is a

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miraculous piece of detective work that no-one has ever known about

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before. We had that today with Inmarsat. The techniques they tried

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today to at least confirm the southern Hemisphere had never been

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done before. So you know, we would need a miracle like that I think in

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terms of detecting the blacks box. What's your estimate of the chances

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of finding out what caused this tragedy?tragedy? This tragedy? Ed

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Not good at all if we don't find the black box. What has come out is how

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primitive communication devices are to locate plane in the sky, are you

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surprised by that, you are probably not surprised, you are an expert. I

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think a lot of passengers would be? You are asking me? Yeah? Yes. Well

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I'm not surprised and we have known this has been an issue for a long

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time. Air France 447 highlighted the issue. This particular one is sort

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of extreme, it is the extreme case. We have never seen anything like it.

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It was in a place where we thought it was being tracked. Then it

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diverted off that path unseen after it turned off its transponder. And

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that is, that sequence of events just has never happened. What do you

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make of what we have learned about the technology? In terms of tracking

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planes and in terms of detecting black boxes on the bottom of the

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ocean it is wanting. It hasn't changed in my entire career. It

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would give us a much better chance of finding it. And that's, we have

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been lucky in the past. We have been very fortunate, most major air

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disasters have been involved in terms of what actually happened and

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we have been able to find the wreckage and find the black boxes,

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we have been able to recover the data and hand it over to the

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investigators for them to say what happened. But in this instance there

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is a very real chance that this plane will never be located. What

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are the technological advances ought to be incorporated as standard? For

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this particular issue I think the thing that the regulators are going

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to look at is what happened to cause those, all the systems on the

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aeroplane to stop speaking to us and stop transmitting. If there is any

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way to foolproof those systems, while still enabling the pilot to

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have authority over any malfunctions in case they overheat or something

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like that, that was the first line of defence that failed us. The

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second thing is to get perhaps a system on board the aircraft that

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can continuously transmit or at least transmit in short bursts if

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something bad is happening to let us know where it is, and give us a

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better idea of its location and what's happening on board the

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aircraft so we can narrow the search zone to something within a few miles

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of where the aircraft was crashed. Thank you both very much indeed

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thank you. A spokesman for the Muslim community, how many times

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have we heard those words and what do they mean? How do you get the

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job? What exactly is the Muslim community and is there just one of

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them? These questions arise every time there is a certain kind of

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incident. Most recently reporters were sent scurrying to dig out

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individuals who could be tagged this way in the latest row over cartoons

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of the Prophet Mohammed. Such depictions are deeply offensive to

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Muslims, but not to others. When a former Islamist radical Mr Nawaz,

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who chairs the Quilliam Foundation and is standing as a Liberal

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Democrat now. When he tweeted this apparently innocuous picture to the

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world saying that it didn't offend him, he brought a storm down on his

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head. We asked him to explain what it is about. Throughout my life

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being a Muslim has been part of my identity, for a period it was the

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defining part. I used to be an Islamist and a member of extremist

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group. Islam is the religion of 80 million

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Pakistanis and 40 million Indians and it is great world brotherhood.

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Times have changed since the big wave of post-war immigration to the

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UK, when my grandfather arrived here and so Muslims in Britain.

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Traditionally Muslim communities voices have been relatively opaque

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for the media. After 9/11 the question of who speaks for Muslims

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became crucial. The media sought to hear from the Muslim voice, that

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tended to be male, middle-aged and relatively conservative. This is the

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star and writer of the comedy Citizen Khan. So you are a community

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leader, what exactly do you do? Lead the community. Right, but what does

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that entail? Community leading. The idea of Mr Khan initial it was a

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satirical character, and there I was watching local news, it was post

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9/11 watching local news and there was a habit of finding the guy with

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the longest beard, placing him in front of the mosque and asking him

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about something that's happening 5,000 miles away. It was funny. It

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was funny but it is also quite a scary proposition, I kept looking

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and thinking who is this guy. I insecured the wrath of some -- I

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incurred the wrath of some of those claiming to speak for the community

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when I retweeted a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammed claiming I wasn't

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offended, it prompted a huge reaction from some people, who

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rejected the idea of a debate on the subject, and who seemed to think

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they were speaking on behalf of all Muslims. This mosque was established

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more than 16 years ago, we invite Muslims from any sect. This is an

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Iman at south Woodford mosque, he recognises that those who shout

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loudest can dominate the debate. The Muslims are used to discussing or to

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respect the other opinion. It is either my way or the highway.

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Because if I don't agree with you you are going to hit me you are

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going to criticise me or belittle me or you are going to shun me

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completely from the community I live in. Who do you think speaks on

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behalf of Muslims in this country? This is a major issue that we

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haven't got a unified or united or well respected body which would

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address the concerns or the problems or the needs of the Muslims living

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in Britain today. There is an increasing number of Muslims who use

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their faith identity to advance a progressive agenda, yet we seldom

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hear from them. Who are the minorities within a minority. This

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man is a rarity in the UK, an openly gay practising Muslim, he feels his

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voice is not heard. We are not represented for the simple fact that

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we are excluded from our society because they classify us as haram,

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my intertation as Muslim is it is an understanding - interpretation as a

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Muslim is it is an understanding between me and God so I'm not a

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haram. He believes there are far more like him but afraid to speak

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out. The population is 70 million of which 2. 7 million are Muslim, on a

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conservative figure of any society is ranging between 6-10% who happen

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to be LGBT, which would make 162,000 people who are LGBT who are Muslim.

:15:58.:16:03.

Why do we not have a voice. We do count, we are a percentage of our

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society. Debates about veil wearing and segregation dominate discussion

:16:11.:16:15.

of women in Islam. Sara runs a human rights charity and doesn't believe

:16:16.:16:19.

feminism and Islam are incompatible. We know there were woman at the time

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of the prophet actively participating on the battlefield as

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soldiers. Throughout time women have par Ahtisaari patiented as leaders,

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scholars, teachers, a lot of the time that history is hidden away, it

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is covered up, many times by Muslim preachers who try to argue that

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women are confined to the private sphere. Although their faith offers

:16:44.:16:51.

protection in a new hard world, they might easily outgrow it as they

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begin to feel more at home. A very old fashioned way of looking

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at it, but some Muslims who moved to the UK did leave the faith. I

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believe this is more common than people realise because many who have

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lost their belief are too afraid to speak openly about it. Matter qualm,

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-- Mariam you call yourself the Council of Ex-Muslims? It is not

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enough to call myself an atheist, th don't face the same problems I do,

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getting death threats for leaving Islam, it is an important aspect of

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who we are, this challenge against laws that ask for apostates to face

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death. Insisting Muslim as only identity in countless individuals is

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part and parcel of the effort to hand them over to the Islamist

:17:43.:17:48.

movement. The idea that community leaders can represent all UK Muslims

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belongs in the past. We already have a system for representation,

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parliament and local councils. I want Muslims living in this country

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to be free to speak their mind like everyone else. And most of all to

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speak for themselves. A number of Muslim commentators declined to take

:18:08.:18:11.

part in this debate as they didn't want to share a platform with the

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author of the piece who joins me now, along with the political

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director of the Huffington Post UK, and the Muslim community activist Mo

:18:20.:18:24.

Ansar. You are not going to sit there and say you didn't expect

:18:25.:18:28.

people to be offended when you tweeted that cartoon? The point I

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was making is I wasn't offended, and that is on my personal Twitter time,

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I think that is a very fair point to make. But you knew people would be

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offended when it went out there? I think some people would be offended,

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I can't speak for the 2. 7 Muslims that are in the UK. Nor can I speak

:18:43.:18:48.

for the 1. 5 billion Muslims across the world. The petition set up only

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gained 1% of Muslims' in this country's signatures. You knew what

:18:57.:19:00.

you did was offensive to many people? Some. 1% of this country's

:19:01.:19:05.

Muslims signed a petition asking for my deselection in Hamstead and

:19:06.:19:09.

Kilburn. There are 1. 5 billion Muslims in the world, it was sent

:19:10.:19:14.

out across the world and only gained 20,000 signatures it is not a

:19:15.:19:17.

majority. Some Muslims were owe end iffed, but as Muslim I have the

:19:18.:19:22.

right to say I wasn't offended. They were offended by my lack of offence!

:19:23.:19:28.

You knew people would be offended by it? Some people, yes. What could you

:19:29.:19:33.

find anything to be offensive? I didn't find it offensive, I don't

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know. I think the fact that people found his lack of offence offensive

:19:37.:19:42.

I think is absurd, it is palpably absurd. He has been for many years

:19:43.:19:45.

somebody who the Government has used as a community leader and someone

:19:46.:19:49.

who speaks on behalf of Muslim commune toes the important thing is

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this though, although I didn't find it particularly offensive there were

:19:53.:19:56.

always gob to be lots of people who did. This is an very interesting

:19:57.:20:00.

distinction, you are saying you didn't find it offensive? Not

:20:01.:20:03.

really. But you found the identity of the tweeter offensive? No, I

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found the idea that a potential parliamentary candidate would take

:20:09.:20:12.

steps which he knew, either knowingly or recklessly would offend

:20:13.:20:16.

lots of people and took that risk on purpose to offend those people shows

:20:17.:20:20.

a grave lack of judgment. And we hold our parliamentary candidates to

:20:21.:20:24.

account. He said it didn't offend him? But linking to a website which

:20:25.:20:30.

depicts prophets in bed together or doing that. Sorry there was no link

:20:31.:20:35.

to a website. There was no link to any website, let's be clear. What I

:20:36.:20:39.

was attempting to do was simply speak up on principle for the

:20:40.:20:42.

minorities within the minorities, for example those we saw in this

:20:43.:20:46.

film who feel they cannot speak because they are silenced by voices

:20:47.:20:50.

that claim to speak in the name of authenticity and tradition and say

:20:51.:20:54.

you are not allowed to express a divergent opinion. It is odd to

:20:55.:20:58.

attack community leaders, I don't too many community leaders only

:20:59.:21:02.

those who work in their sphere of expertise, but to paint yourself in

:21:03.:21:06.

the guise you are attacking. You said you are speaking for them. I

:21:07.:21:11.

said I'm not. You represent the Liberal Democrats. Because I have

:21:12.:21:15.

been elected by them. As a Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidate you

:21:16.:21:20.

knew tweeting things that might have been seen as gratuitously offensive.

:21:21.:21:27.

But racism is offensive to some people. Telling people to F-off on

:21:28.:21:33.

your Twitter timeline. I'm standing for parliament and you are. Is it

:21:34.:21:41.

offensive to you that I tweeted the cartoon? I did. I find cartoons

:21:42.:21:46.

about the Prophet Mohammed offensive. Please explain what is

:21:47.:21:50.

offensive? Let me speak you have had a six-minute film can I speak. I

:21:51.:21:54.

don't care about the cartoons. You just said you do. They were

:21:55.:21:58.

attention-seeking provocative whatever it is, can I finish the

:21:59.:22:02.

point. My point is as Mo pointed out and a lot of journalists don't point

:22:03.:22:06.

out, you have a long history of upsetting people in the Muslim

:22:07.:22:11.

community in a gratuitous manner. What do you find the offensive?

:22:12.:22:15.

Because in Islam you don't depict the prophet and you don't depict him

:22:16.:22:20.

in bed with another prophet. You depicted a cartoon from a series.

:22:21.:22:23.

What was offensive about the one that people saw? If you tweet one

:22:24.:22:29.

cartoon (all speak at once) You two are in the same boat, I was going to

:22:30.:22:33.

say bed, but that would I offend you. You don't object to the cartoon

:22:34.:22:37.

but the identity of the tweeter? I do object to the cartoon, I have a

:22:38.:22:41.

right to be offended just as he has the right to be offensive, he has a

:22:42.:22:45.

right to tweet the cartoon, I defend his right to do, violent threats are

:22:46.:22:54.

outrageous. The point is it wasn't a/another tweeting it. What was

:22:55.:22:57.

offensive about the cartoon I tweeted? It was one of a series of

:22:58.:23:00.

cartoon. What was offensive about that particular one? Just because I

:23:01.:23:05.

have a page of the book doesn't mean I don't represent the whole book. Do

:23:06.:23:10.

you believe in every single view of everyone you ever quote? I'm not

:23:11.:23:15.

here to debate the cartoon I don't care about it. You clearly do you

:23:16.:23:19.

find it offensive. I do find it offensive, I think it was a mistake

:23:20.:23:24.

for them to go after you for the cartoons. Its because your

:23:25.:23:31.

organisation has demonised and tried to descredit Islam organisations.

:23:32.:23:35.

Let me finish the point, he talks about community leaders in the film.

:23:36.:23:39.

There was an important point he made about community leaders? He says

:23:40.:23:43.

they don't speak on behalf of Muslims, I agree. You think I have a

:23:44.:23:50.

right to tweet the cartoon and the agreeing with the film, what is the

:23:51.:23:55.

debate? It is straw men, saying you are a dissenter and speaking out for

:23:56.:23:58.

Muslims. The reason Newsnight invited you on to give that

:23:59.:24:02.

impression. There are people with grassroots support in the Muslim

:24:03.:24:07.

communities, fighting against gender rights and extremism, he doesn't

:24:08.:24:11.

speak for them. He has zero credibility in the Muslim commune

:24:12.:24:15.

tie and is loathed by many Muslims because he demoniseds mainstream

:24:16.:24:19.

organisations as supporters of Al-Qaeda, he goes around promoting

:24:20.:24:24.

the Government line on extremism and the EDL, that is the problem. You

:24:25.:24:27.

are one of these community leaders aren't you? I don't know, am I, I

:24:28.:24:32.

have never professed to be a community leader or bought or sold a

:24:33.:24:37.

community leader, I won't parrot George Galloway, I never said I'm a

:24:38.:24:43.

community leader, than him and his group of sycophants like painting it

:24:44.:24:50.

in black and white. He has always had extremist standpoint and never

:24:51.:24:54.

moved away from it. The electorate will be looking towards someone who

:24:55.:24:58.

is saying I'm the Gate Keeper of Islam in this country and defining

:24:59.:25:02.

it. And you are? I have never said I am, and I'm not standing for

:25:03.:25:05.

parliament. However somebody who has been rejected by every mainstream

:25:06.:25:09.

Muslim civil society organisation and has no credibility and issues

:25:10.:25:13.

threats and harassment to other people, I think people will, you

:25:14.:25:18.

want to make yourself a martyr of free speech, having had a six-minute

:25:19.:25:22.

film you want to make yourself a martyr of free speech and you are

:25:23.:25:26.

not. Neither of you have a problem with me tweeting the cartoon. (All

:25:27.:25:30.

speaking at once) Both of you agree I have the right to, and neither of

:25:31.:25:35.

you have a problem with the film. I have many problems with the film.

:25:36.:25:42.

There is sweeping generalisations about Muslims. Should you be

:25:43.:25:47.

depending. Can I speak? As a political candidate should you be

:25:48.:25:50.

defending large parts of the community. This is playing the man

:25:51.:25:54.

and not the ball, it is what this film is about was the idea that I

:25:55.:26:00.

don't sit here to claim... You are invited on to make these films. I

:26:01.:26:04.

don't claim I'm speaking here for everybody. You do. You said you have

:26:05.:26:09.

speaking for minorities. People who are actually fighting for

:26:10.:26:12.

minorities. Why is it we don't see a broader range of Muslim spokesmen?

:26:13.:26:16.

Let me answer that question for you, let's talk about the role of the

:26:17.:26:19.

media, tonight you have a Muslim debate with three male Muslim

:26:20.:26:24.

panellists where is the woman, where is the Muslim woman, she was dropped

:26:25.:26:27.

before the show began. So your viewers at home think there are no

:26:28.:26:31.

women who can speak within the British community. As Sara said

:26:32.:26:35.

women are active in the Muslim community for centuries, where are

:26:36.:26:39.

they tonight, this is the media's discussion. There were two women in

:26:40.:26:43.

that film? One of them was an ex-Muslim. The woman was dropped. I

:26:44.:26:50.

think that was a mistake to not have a Muslim woman on the panel. It

:26:51.:26:55.

speaks volume about the media role. I would be happy to see a more

:26:56.:26:59.

diverse section of Muslims and opinions. You ask a very important

:27:00.:27:07.

question a mainstream media commentator attacked me this weekend

:27:08.:27:11.

on Twitter because he believed me to have homophobic views without

:27:12.:27:14.

checking that I have been standing for gay rights and working with the

:27:15.:27:18.

transgender community for over 15 years, I wonder had he seen my

:27:19.:27:22.

profile picture and when I complained about it he insulted me.

:27:23.:27:28.

You can't get away with this. And he said I would never come on his show

:27:29.:27:32.

again. If that is how we abuse the Muslim voice in this country.

:27:33.:27:37.

Answering the main question Muslims speak for Muslims. I wish the media

:27:38.:27:42.

would understand that rather than picking to people on their behalf.

:27:43.:27:46.

Western political leaders arranged to meet tonight and in the

:27:47.:27:49.

Netherlands to discuss nuclear matters, all that is put to one side

:27:50.:27:54.

as they try to find further ways of showing their disapproval of Russia.

:27:55.:27:58.

They know for all their huffing and puffing over the Russian seizure of

:27:59.:28:04.

Crimea, President Putin has got what he wanted and there is precious

:28:05.:28:08.

little anyone can do about it. We will talk about where the crisis

:28:09.:28:11.

goes from here in a moment. First we're in the Hague. . Me, as you

:28:12.:28:20.

say, a big -- Jeremy, as you say, a big diplomatic occasion, all sorts

:28:21.:28:23.

of things on the margins. Earlier this evening a meeting between the

:28:24.:28:27.

Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers very interesting. But what

:28:28.:28:31.

does it represent, a first crack in Moscow's rejection of that interim

:28:32.:28:35.

Government in the Ukraine, perhaps. That a cunning ploy to take the

:28:36.:28:42.

Ukrainians, to confuse them, if you like, before some further move, or a

:28:43.:28:45.

response to western sanctions. In the old days we would have said

:28:46.:28:49.

let's get a Kremlinologist to try to analyse this. And the fact that

:28:50.:28:55.

Kremlinology seems to be back in fashion is a measure of how changed

:28:56.:28:58.

these times are, and how we are once again at a moment of east-west

:28:59.:29:04.

tension. It wasn't meant to be like this, the Dutch summit is a

:29:05.:29:08.

long-arranged event on nuclear security. But instead of peddling

:29:09.:29:13.

sedately towards a safer future, it has become a telling lesson in how

:29:14.:29:19.

things are going backwards. The crisis in relations with Russia has

:29:20.:29:22.

produced clear threats of what lies in store if they go further in

:29:23.:29:28.

Ukraine. These reports are concerning and we need to send a

:29:29.:29:31.

very clear message to the Russian Government and to President Putin,

:29:32.:29:35.

that it will be completely unacceptable to go further into

:29:36.:29:39.

Ukraine and that would trigger a sanction from the EU, from the US,

:29:40.:29:43.

from other countries as well and we need to be very, very clear about

:29:44.:29:47.

that. So when the G7 leaders met this evening, in a hastily arranged

:29:48.:29:51.

session on the margins of this summit, it was to snub Russia and to

:29:52.:29:56.

agree concerted action. The sanctions they will take to hurt

:29:57.:30:02.

Russia's economy if President Putin goes further. Faced with this, the

:30:03.:30:07.

Russian leader side-stepped any humiliation, sending his Foreign

:30:08.:30:11.

Minister instead, to talk about nuclear, and to insist that the west

:30:12.:30:18.

turning what was G8 into G7 didn't matter any way. TRANSLATION: G8 is

:30:19.:30:25.

an informal club, nobody can oust anyone out of there. G8 has played

:30:26.:30:31.

its part, G20 makes all the significant decision. By and large

:30:32.:30:35.

there are other platforms to discuss the big issues. If western partners

:30:36.:30:39.

believe the format has defeated itself, we don't cling to it. But

:30:40.:30:47.

this is serious for Russia, because it emerged tonight that the leaders

:30:48.:30:52.

will now use the G7 forum to pile further pressure on the Kremlin. We

:30:53.:30:57.

are going to have officials and ministers meeting in the weeks to

:30:58.:31:03.

come to examine not just how we can continue to co-ordinate our

:31:04.:31:06.

sanctions but how we can look at options to increase those if

:31:07.:31:11.

necessary in particular we're task our energy ministers to meet, so

:31:12.:31:15.

they can, that's a very sensitive area as you know. But we can example

:31:16.:31:20.

with the options are available to use long-term to continue the

:31:21.:31:25.

pressure on the Putin Government. With that warning brandished,

:31:26.:31:28.

President Obama and the others returned as it were to the scheduled

:31:29.:31:34.

programme. Dinner with the King and Queen of the Netherland. A message

:31:35.:31:37.

has been sent of a western willingness to damage Russia and of

:31:38.:31:43.

the Kremlin's defiance over Crimea. These mark this summit out as a

:31:44.:31:47.

milestone in the deterioration of the east-west relationship. There

:31:48.:31:51.

have been ructions before, of course, like after Russia's brief

:31:52.:31:57.

war with Georgia in 2008 but it is different this time. Russian actions

:31:58.:32:02.

in Crimea call into question the whole basis upon which European

:32:03.:32:06.

peace has been kept since 1945, and it is very hard to see quite how

:32:07.:32:11.

things can go right back to normal. There are still questions about

:32:12.:32:16.

western resolve, and their willingness to take economic Payne.

:32:17.:32:25.

Pain, that very debate has shown how par things have gone over the past

:32:26.:32:50.

few weeks. We have our guests. How genuinely dangerous do you judge

:32:51.:32:53.

this occupation to be? It is extremely dangerous, on a number of

:32:54.:32:57.

levels, it shows that Russia now intends to defy and undermine the

:32:58.:33:04.

system of the, the legal system and the political system created in

:33:05.:33:20.

Europe after the war. They have reached a new level of challenging

:33:21.:33:25.

the norms of truth and honesty and diplomacy. It is signalling a change

:33:26.:33:30.

and a watershed moment. Putin read pretty accurately precisely how far

:33:31.:33:38.

or how not very far western opinion was prepared to go He read the fact

:33:39.:33:44.

that if he took over Crimea nobody would do anything about it. I don't

:33:45.:33:48.

agree that it is a real watershed moment. Russia's breaking all the

:33:49.:33:53.

stable rules of European order. I think Russia is doing something

:33:54.:33:58.

which it usually does reacting to a situation in a fairly improvised

:33:59.:34:02.

way. Although the actual takeover plans were contingent ones taken off

:34:03.:34:06.

the shelf and worked very well. It is trying to prevent what it sees as

:34:07.:34:10.

the creeping influence of both EU and NATO together eroding its core

:34:11.:34:22.

of its notional your racial Eurasian union. There will have to be a

:34:23.:34:26.

recalibration between west and east and their relationship, how do you

:34:27.:34:35.

suggest it is done? We have gone from having someone we thought was a

:34:36.:34:39.

partner and we now have an adversary. That means that we have

:34:40.:34:45.

got to give some pretty clear, unequivocal guarantees to NATO

:34:46.:34:48.

members who border Russia. If you are in the Baltics you are scared

:34:49.:34:54.

and anxious. We have got to reassure them, we have got to make sure that

:34:55.:34:59.

the Ukrainian transition to democracy gets sustained with some

:35:00.:35:04.

serious economic help, and if we do that and we adopt, I think, a cool

:35:05.:35:11.

judicious temperament that makes clear that Russia cannot proceed a

:35:12.:35:15.

step further, I think we're going to be OK. But, I agree with Anne, I

:35:16.:35:22.

think it really is one of the first moments in the new world that's

:35:23.:35:29.

begun with 2014. There is no question this is a new moment. He

:35:30.:35:34.

sound a little more sanguine than you doesn't he? He's using nicer

:35:35.:35:37.

language, maybe because he's Canadian. May I comment on the

:35:38.:35:45.

language. I do think it is unhelpful, although not so

:35:46.:35:48.

inaccurate to use zero sum game language. Too many of us on all

:35:49.:35:53.

sides are saying what our loss is your gain, your gain is our loss. I

:35:54.:35:57.

don't think we need to use zero sum language. I actually agree with

:35:58.:36:03.

Michael that the need to be calm and cool and to begin to think long-term

:36:04.:36:09.

is really important at this point. Sanctions might make people feel

:36:10.:36:12.

better and maybe there will be some bad guys who should have been

:36:13.:36:16.

excluded from the international banking system any way who will be

:36:17.:36:20.

chucked out so I'm not worried about them. I think in the long-term we

:36:21.:36:24.

need to think very stragically about what is our relationship with

:36:25.:36:28.

Russia, as Michael says, it has been changed. There have to be at least

:36:29.:36:31.

three parts of it, we mentioned one part. Which is the re-thinking of

:36:32.:36:36.

the role of NATO, probably repositioning NATO bases and forces

:36:37.:36:40.

which are almost entirely concentrated in western Europe now,

:36:41.:36:44.

in order to reassure the eastern countries. But there is also a

:36:45.:36:52.

re-thinking its energy structure of Europe. Perhaps allowing the US

:36:53.:36:58.

really to allow the shipping of gas to Europe. Re-thinking, and

:36:59.:37:03.

re-thinking the role of Russian finance and Russian money in

:37:04.:37:06.

European politics and in Europe. We have to understand that Russia uses

:37:07.:37:11.

money and it uses its western, its companies, which are not fully

:37:12.:37:15.

private companies, in order to affect and change and corrupt

:37:16.:37:18.

European politics. And we need to have some reaction to. That we need

:37:19.:37:22.

to be thinking about that. Alex you are sitting next to her and shaking

:37:23.:37:27.

your head? We need strategic vision and a long-term plan, but the

:37:28.:37:30.

long-term plan you laid out is basically about creating a new

:37:31.:37:34.

divide between Russia and a slightly bigger Europe. No? Yes. Extending

:37:35.:37:40.

NATO bases reassuring, the reassurance is already there for the

:37:41.:37:45.

Baltic states. Russia knows what would happen if it struck against a

:37:46.:37:48.

NATO country. We have to think about fashioning a new political

:37:49.:37:52.

relationship with Russia, which is part of a greater Europe, the

:37:53.:37:55.

mistake made all along for the last 20 years, we haven't been

:37:56.:37:58.

imaginative enough to have led a process by which we reconfigure the

:37:59.:38:02.

security structure of Europe to make Russia feel it is at least a

:38:03.:38:06.

co-author of that system rather than just a subject or object of it. Do

:38:07.:38:12.

you think if that is an ambition worth having? I would like to

:38:13.:38:17.

believe that Alex is right, but I think it was a mistake all along to

:38:18.:38:26.

think that a KGB-led Russia could really be a partner here. I

:38:27.:38:30.

understand the point that Alex is making about not wanting everything

:38:31.:38:36.

to be zero sum. I definitely don't want to go out to the Cold War, I

:38:37.:38:41.

don't want Cold War language. Going back to his actions in Georgia, the

:38:42.:38:49.

constant provocation of ethnic Russians in post-soviet states, the

:38:50.:38:54.

constant acts of provocation here are not things that can really, that

:38:55.:39:01.

we can deal with. I think we are dealing with an adversary here, not

:39:02.:39:05.

a partner. It doesn't require us to set our hair on fire or to take

:39:06.:39:10.

provocative steps backwards, but I think we're dealing with someone who

:39:11.:39:15.

has a very different structural strategic vision of order and of

:39:16.:39:18.

Russia's place in the international system. I think Alex wants to

:39:19.:39:24.

integrate Russia into a system and I don't think that's the game Putin is

:39:25.:39:29.

playing. The key point I would just add is on two issues, we actually

:39:30.:39:34.

need Russia. We need them in relation to Iran, to a possible

:39:35.:39:38.

nuclear deal there and eventually we are going to need them on Syria. So

:39:39.:39:42.

we are dealing with an adversary with whom we have to maintain a

:39:43.:39:47.

disciplined strategic relationship. But we have lost a partnership, and

:39:48.:39:50.

I think any possibility of rebuilding one is gone. OK thank you

:39:51.:39:55.

all very much indeed thank you. Now there are no indications y how

:39:56.:40:00.

many pensioners are hoping to be able to blow their savings on a

:40:01.:40:05.

Lambourghini, and anyone the changes won't come into effect next year.

:40:06.:40:08.

Whether they are good for society or even necessarily the best thing for

:40:09.:40:12.

all pensioners has been rather eclipsed by, for many, by the

:40:13.:40:16.

problems the budget caused the Labour Party. Ed Miliband's response

:40:17.:40:20.

wasn't seen as electrifying, and it took a while for the party to work

:40:21.:40:22.

out whether it supported the policy at all. In the meantime the opinion

:40:23.:40:26.

polls seemed to show the Conservatives making ground. Here is

:40:27.:40:41.

our political editor. There is an old rule in politics, Ronald Regan

:40:42.:40:46.

once said. If you are explaining you are losing. There is a feeling out

:40:47.:40:49.

there in the Labour Party that perhaps the Labour leader himself is

:40:50.:40:54.

having to do a little bit too much explaining of their direction of

:40:55.:41:02.

travel. First it was the response to the budget, he looked, one MP told

:41:03.:41:06.

me, like a man in a rush to jump off a bus who couldn't wait to get out

:41:07.:41:11.

of his seat. His former best friend, they like don't to hear it. Here is

:41:12.:41:16.

what his best friend... Then there was delayed reaction to the pensions

:41:17.:41:20.

announcement, Labour seemed for a while like a party going round in

:41:21.:41:24.

circles. Then the weekend polls not one, two, three, all pointing in the

:41:25.:41:28.

same direction, and then this Monday morning present, a letter from

:41:29.:41:32.

think-tanks on all sides warning the Labour leader not to be risk-averse.

:41:33.:41:36.

It is not about the polls, but clearly you have to take some of

:41:37.:41:40.

that into consideration. And we don't want to see Labour lose, we

:41:41.:41:44.

want to see Labour win, maybe with others, and form a different kind of

:41:45.:41:47.

Government, so it is about making sure that happens. But when they win

:41:48.:41:51.

having power for a purpose. And that means transforming the way in which

:41:52.:41:56.

we think politics is now done. There is a rejection in the letter of a

:41:57.:42:02.

safety-first approach, which is pretty ironic, it is hard to think

:42:03.:42:05.

of more radical policies than some of those the Labour leader has come

:42:06.:42:08.

up with in the last six months. Whether it is about regrouping the

:42:09.:42:12.

energy markets, breaking up the banks, a good two fringers up to the

:42:13.:42:17.

Murdoch empire and other press barons, but there is a growing

:42:18.:42:19.

criticism that they shouldn't be trying to win points on the basis of

:42:20.:42:24.

the Conservatives unpopularity. And an acceptance perhaps that the

:42:25.:42:27.

Tories might not be so unpopular going into the next election. The

:42:28.:42:32.

policy on welfare, for example, has hit a nerve with the public, the

:42:33.:42:35.

vote on the welfare cap bill this Wednesday has been seen as a

:42:36.:42:38.

political trap for Labour MPs who say they will vote against it. I

:42:39.:42:43.

understand why they are, but I also make a plea for them to really

:42:44.:42:46.

engage with the wider electorate. Who are appalled by the global sum

:42:47.:42:52.

we spend and also some individual payments. But all of us should know

:42:53.:42:58.

that we can't actually win on this debate the Tories could run this

:42:59.:43:01.

lowering the cap from now until the election and we're actually going to

:43:02.:43:07.

be following them. Polls any politician will tell you only matter

:43:08.:43:10.

when they are going in the right direction. If you are Labourite now

:43:11.:43:14.

these aren't. Three polls done after the budget have shown the two top

:43:15.:43:21.

parties almost neck and neck, one poll put Labour's lead over the

:43:22.:43:24.

Conservatives at 1%. When dealing with the deficit the coalition has a

:43:25.:43:30.

13-point lead on Labour. At a more personal level fewer people think

:43:31.:43:35.

this year's budget is bad for them. Two years ago 50% of people thought

:43:36.:43:40.

George Osborne's measures would dent their living towards. This year it

:43:41.:43:44.

is just 22. It used to be said Labour could target just 35% of the

:43:45.:43:48.

voters and still win, although without a thumping defeat. But more

:43:49.:43:52.

recently it is not looking quite so cosy against a resurgent Tory Party.

:43:53.:43:58.

When we asked the British public what matters in a political leader,

:43:59.:44:03.

they said three THINLS things, understanding the problems facing

:44:04.:44:07.

Britain, score draw between Ed Miliband and David Cameron. But

:44:08.:44:10.

there are two key factor its, being good in a crisis and capable leader.

:44:11.:44:15.

On both of those Ed Miliband really has some work to do. Against David

:44:16.:44:22.

Cameron. Prime ministers look prime ministerial, Ed Miliband's advisers

:44:23.:44:25.

tell me, they travel in Jaguars and talk at EU summits, Ed Miliband

:44:26.:44:28.

doesn't have to swagger down a corridor in Whitehall to prove he's

:44:29.:44:32.

powerful. He's a politician with big ideas, they say. Tonight Ed Miliband

:44:33.:44:37.

hinted of more big ideas to come. He spoke of the need to be radical on

:44:38.:44:41.

tuition fees, making repayments more progressive. The next clear

:44:42.:44:46.

direction of travel or a few sweets to shut up the noisy kids in the

:44:47.:44:49.

back of the war on what's turning into quite a long journey? With us

:44:50.:44:55.

now is the former Labour Party chair, Hazel Blears. How widely

:44:56.:45:00.

shared is this anxiety about how the party is coming across? I think when

:45:01.:45:03.

you have got polls coming out obviously people get a big concerned

:45:04.:45:07.

about that. But we are a year out from the election. I think there is

:45:08.:45:10.

quite a long way for us to go yet, we have to get on with the job.

:45:11.:45:14.

Meaning what? Getting on with the job? Coming out with policies that

:45:15.:45:18.

are directly addressing the problems people are experiencing, talking in

:45:19.:45:23.

normal human language. I have seen the letter from the think tanks in

:45:24.:45:27.

the Guardian. Actually the sentiments they express I have to

:45:28.:45:33.

own up, I wrote a Fabian pamphlet in 2002, and a White Paper in 2009

:45:34.:45:38.

called Communities in Control with all their principles in it. The

:45:39.:45:41.

challenge for a political party is to turn the big ideas and principles

:45:42.:45:45.

into practical policies about jobs, transport, energy, you know, Ed

:45:46.:45:49.

Miliband caught the imagination of the nation last year when he talked

:45:50.:45:52.

about the energy freeze. And he didn't just talk about an energy

:45:53.:45:55.

freeze, what is interesting is that was to give space to get more

:45:56.:45:58.

competition into a market. I think there are some big themes here, but

:45:59.:46:03.

we do need to make a bit faster progress on turning them into real

:46:04.:46:07.

things people can relate to. When you go around on people's doorsteps,

:46:08.:46:12.

what do they say about Ed Miliband, do they say he has the common touch?

:46:13.:46:15.

I think what they say is the things he's talking about are the things

:46:16.:46:19.

that matter to emthis, which is cost of living, it is energy prices and

:46:20.:46:23.

getting young people into work. It is also about trying to have an

:46:24.:46:26.

economy that isn't just about London but the rest of the country as well.

:46:27.:46:30.

Do they think he speaks their language? I think they do. I think

:46:31.:46:34.

they think the Labour Party speaks their language, it is tough and neck

:46:35.:46:38.

and neck out there. What about Ed Miliband that is who we are talking

:46:39.:46:41.

about here? When he talks about freezing energy prices, taking on

:46:42.:46:46.

vested interests, getting more competition, the people out there

:46:47.:46:49.

see it reflects their lives. He doesn't do that enough? We have to

:46:50.:46:53.

do an awful lot more. 12 months from an election, you need a good long

:46:54.:46:59.

period to campaign on your pledge card, the five promises you want to

:47:00.:47:03.

talk to the nation about and we need to make faster programme. You should

:47:04.:47:08.

already have a clear sense of the policies you are going into the

:47:09.:47:11.

election with and that you will win with? They are starting to emerge,

:47:12.:47:14.

whether we have energy prices with a good offer on child cautious we have

:47:15.:47:18.

talked about building more homes for people. And young people getting

:47:19.:47:21.

into work. We need to turn that into a narrative that says the Labour

:47:22.:47:24.

Party understands your life, we are on your side and we will have

:47:25.:47:27.

practical policies that will make a difference. Why don't people

:47:28.:47:30.

understand that already? You have to go out there and face-to-face, dare

:47:31.:47:34.

I say it the media have never done the Labour Party's job. The way the

:47:35.:47:37.

Labour Party does its job is it knocks on doors, it does

:47:38.:47:40.

face-to-face talking to the public. Thank you very much. Just as

:47:41.:47:47.

hobbyists with metal detogetherers continue to stumble on Roman

:47:48.:47:55.

coinage, it seems the John Lennon hoard is never exhausted. Now a pile

:47:56.:48:02.

of his drawings and skits from hissout will be going under the

:48:03.:48:06.

hammer in -- his youth will be going under the hammer in south bees. --

:48:07.:48:14.

Sothebys. There is hope the former Beatle will be appreciated for his

:48:15.:48:20.

art. Smilie Hello, this is John speaking with his voice. As you all

:48:21.:48:24.

know Harris won the general erection with a very small Marjorie over the

:48:25.:48:31.

tortures, thus putting the partly back into power after a large

:48:32.:48:34.

abscess, he couldn't have done that without span the barking of trade

:48:35.:48:40.

onions. That is S I call a late night current affairs show. Tonight

:48:41.:48:44.

with John Lennon, and his nonsense people about the 1964 general

:48:45.:48:53.

erection, election! How did it come out that you wanted to be a poet and

:48:54.:48:58.

your first book was published? Some American was called Michael Brown, I

:48:59.:49:02.

showed him the stuff and he took it to the publisher and they published

:49:03.:49:06.

it, that was it. One day he came in with a whole lot of pieces of paper.

:49:07.:49:11.

They were many handwritten things, and there were drawings and there

:49:12.:49:20.

were peoples and Poems and letters. I said what I think they are

:49:21.:49:27.

wonderful and brilliant, I said who are they by, he said John Lennon.

:49:28.:49:39.

Fainting teeny boppers and police escorts, these were things the

:49:40.:49:44.

London book scene hadn't previously thrown at Tom on the left here with

:49:45.:49:48.

writers Elizabeth Jane Howard and Kingsley Amos and Lennon himself now

:49:49.:49:53.

he found himself working with a Beatle in the flat where the Fab

:49:54.:49:57.

Four all seemed to live. There was the odd bed or mattress, I got the

:49:58.:50:02.

feeling that they slept there. This is pretty weird. And outside which

:50:03.:50:09.

is even weirder we have 100 or 200 fans clamouring trying to get in. He

:50:10.:50:16.

liked typing didn't he? He liked typing and he had his own

:50:17.:50:20.

typewriter. He did it in his spare time. He said to me, I just did this

:50:21.:50:24.

for my own amusement. I never thought it might be published. He

:50:25.:50:28.

loved drawing. He started drawing when he was about seven or eight as

:50:29.:50:32.

a kid. And he loved writing. And he had always done it, and I suppose he

:50:33.:50:37.

just went into a corner and, he wrote quite quickly and he drew

:50:38.:50:46.

quickly too. And now another poem, Good Dog Nigel "nice dog, good boy,

:50:47.:50:58.

wage tail, we're putting you to sleep Nigel". Lennon's verse owns

:50:59.:51:02.

something to the Goons, in his lifetime it was compared to Edward

:51:03.:51:10.

Lear and Hillar Belock. The longest thing I have written is in this book

:51:11.:51:14.

about Sherlock Holmes, it seemed like a novel to me, it was only six

:51:15.:51:20.

pages. I couldn't do it now, I get fed up, I brought so many characters

:51:21.:51:31.

in I forgot who they were. With these original sketches going under

:51:32.:51:34.

the hammer later in New York this year, at estimates ranging from ?300

:51:35.:51:39.

to more than ?40,000, Lennon's publisher said it is time John's art

:51:40.:51:45.

was appreciated. The artwork nobody talked about or reviewed it. It is

:51:46.:51:50.

very difficult to pinpoint it. I think he's a serious artist. I think

:51:51.:51:55.

he's a really good artist. And if he hadn't been a Beatle I'm suspecting

:51:56.:51:59.

he would have had an art show. But it is some how it was actually a

:52:00.:52:03.

disadvantage being a Beatle in terms of being taken seriously. If you

:52:04.:52:09.

really look at them you get an idea about John that even if you knew him

:52:10.:52:13.

very well you might not have. Reading him, so to speak, from the

:52:14.:52:19.

drawings, is pleasurable and fascinating. This here he surpassed

:52:20.:52:25.

himself by getting a wrestling dog. But who would fight this wonderous

:52:26.:52:31.

beast, I wouldn't for a kick-off, you wouldn't get me past Dudley.

:52:32.:52:35.

That's all for tonight. I will be back tomorrow until then good night.

:52:36.:53:01.

Not as cold out there tonight, there is more cloud around,

:53:02.:53:02.

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Jeremy Paxman. The search for MH370's black box, British Islam by its Muslim critics, Russia and G8, Ed Miliband's opinion poll blues and John Lennon's poetry.


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