11/08/2014 Newsnight


11/08/2014

What's happening in Baghdad and to the Yazidis? What has the NHS learned from war medicine? Scottish independence campaign wobbles? With Kirsty Wark.


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Tonight a political crisis and a humanitarian disaster unfold

:00:00.:00:16.

together in Iraq. Thousands of people are still facing

:00:17.:00:22.

danger. Four helicopters managed to rescue a few desperate refugees.

:00:23.:00:26.

Special Forces take up discreet positions in Baghdad, as the Prime

:00:27.:00:29.

Minister refuses to leave office. We will speak to the Kurdish high

:00:30.:00:34.

representative in the UK, and the American architect of the post-war

:00:35.:00:39.

Government. The fake Camp Bastion hospital with fake injuries, not in

:00:40.:00:43.

Afghanistan but in York. How the lessons of war medicine are being

:00:44.:00:47.

used to educate the NHS. We have moved to something akin to the

:00:48.:00:51.

Ferrari pit stop, where there is a whole team of people stood around

:00:52.:00:55.

the patient ready immediately to get to grips with what they have to do.

:00:56.:01:07.

Good evening, tonight there is stand-off in Baghdad. Nouri

:01:08.:01:11.

Al-Maliki is defiantly refusing to stand down as Prime Minister in

:01:12.:01:17.

favour of fellow Shia Haider Al-Abadi, calling it dangerous

:01:18.:01:21.

breach of the constitution. It is not clear if the troops on the

:01:22.:01:27.

streets are loyal to Maliki or not. But the vacuum in Government adds

:01:28.:01:32.

more instability as the Islamic State fighters hold their positions

:01:33.:01:36.

despite US air strikes. The US administration is providing weapons

:01:37.:01:41.

to the Kurdish Peshmerga fighting IS, but it gives little relief to

:01:42.:01:51.

those in the searing heat. It is a country that has become used

:01:52.:02:00.

to chaos. Tens of thousands of the sect have fled from IS, and are

:02:01.:02:04.

still trapped on the mountain. A Kurdish helicopter flies in across

:02:05.:02:09.

enemy lines. There is frantic scramble, just a few children

:02:10.:02:18.

escape. This is a bleak day for Iraq. On the battlefield another

:02:19.:02:24.

victory for IS, yesterday they lost ground to the forces of the Iraqi

:02:25.:02:31.

Kurds, now they have captured a town just zero 70 miles from Baghdad.

:02:32.:02:36.

While in the capital a major political battle that will have

:02:37.:02:39.

far-reaching consequences for the future of the country. It centres on

:02:40.:02:44.

the simple question, who will be the next Prime Minister? This is Haider

:02:45.:02:48.

Al-Abadi on the right. The man backed by the country's new

:02:49.:02:55.

President, Faud Masum, by the US and the UN and the EU. Al-Abadi had been

:02:56.:03:00.

Deputy Speaker of the House, but today was invited to take over as PM

:03:01.:03:04.

by the President. It is hoped he will bring change and create a more

:03:05.:03:08.

broad-based unity Government that Iraq desperately needs. But it won't

:03:09.:03:13.

be easy. It all depends on the current Prime Minister, Nouri

:03:14.:03:16.

Al-Maliki, a man accused of monopolising power, and following a

:03:17.:03:20.

sectarian agenda that has alienated Iraq's Kurds and Sunnis and helped

:03:21.:03:28.

gain support for the Sunni forces of Islamic State. Al-Maliki has refused

:03:29.:03:34.

to step down, before the President's announcement he deployed militia's

:03:35.:03:40.

loyal to himself on the streets and supporters took to the streets. He

:03:41.:03:44.

said the decision to replace him was a dangerous violation of the

:03:45.:03:47.

constitution, and said we will fix the mistake. He still has the

:03:48.:03:51.

support of loyal party members, but other state of law members, part of

:03:52.:03:56.

his larger political block, more crucially there are between 10,000

:03:57.:04:01.

and 20,000 Iraqi soldiers who are loyal to him, not to the state of

:04:02.:04:07.

Iraq, and they depend on Maliki, he controls elite Special Forces who

:04:08.:04:12.

have been moving around in the Green Zone and outside Baghdad, they have

:04:13.:04:16.

deployed in force and it is sending a signal to others that he's still

:04:17.:04:22.

in charge. The US want him to go, the EU want him to go and the UN

:04:23.:04:26.

want him to go, what can they do about it? It is interesting in

:04:27.:04:33.

itself that Secretary of State Kerry, and the United Nations have

:04:34.:04:37.

support against Haider Al-Abadi, a clear move against Nouri Al-Maliki.

:04:38.:04:40.

At the end of the day they can't do anything. For the Islamic State this

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is just the sort of chaos they want. Especially on a day the US revealed

:04:46.:04:50.

it has begun urgently shipping arms and ammunition to the Kurdish forces

:04:51.:04:56.

to stop the IS advance towards Erbil. American air strikes have had

:04:57.:05:03.

an affect, boosting more rail. Islamic State have made dramatic

:05:04.:05:07.

advances from Syria across northern Iraq. But yesterday the Kurdish

:05:08.:05:14.

Peshmerga forces took two towns back from IS. Both of which guard the

:05:15.:05:21.

approach to Erbil. Though today IS hit back by taking a town defended

:05:22.:05:29.

by the Kurds. What weapons do they need? They are trying to defend over

:05:30.:05:36.

600 miles of border so it is difficult for them to defend in

:05:37.:05:41.

depth with the resources they have got. They have lost territory and

:05:42.:05:45.

need to reinforce territory to regain it. Air transport would be an

:05:46.:05:52.

ideal solution for them, as well as heavy weaponry. So what happens next

:05:53.:05:58.

for Iraq? Tonight there are warnings if Nouri Al-Maliki refuses to step

:05:59.:06:01.

down as Prime Minister the country could face new chaos. Iraq will

:06:02.:06:08.

break up. There is going to be absolutely no possibility for Iraq

:06:09.:06:11.

to come back together as a nation state, and I think it will lead to

:06:12.:06:16.

further Civil War and the break up of the Iraq as we know it. Iraq

:06:17.:06:21.

desperately needs a broad-based new Government to lead the fightback

:06:22.:06:25.

against IS as the humanitarian crisis continues. What Maliki does

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next could prove crucial. We have the Kurdish regional

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Government's high representative in the UK joining us now. I want to ask

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you about Nouri Al-Maliki later, first of all, can we just talk about

:06:40.:06:44.

what is happening on the mountain, it is so hard to get absolute

:06:45.:06:47.

intelligence about how many people are still on the mountain, and what

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are your people telling us? It is hard to get accurate numbers and

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something we are talking about ourselves. The estimate is anything

:06:58.:07:02.

between 50,000 and 150,000 people are stranded. We saw today that four

:07:03.:07:07.

Iraqi helicopters managed to get just dozens. And the Kurdish

:07:08.:07:18.

fighters have brought some but it could be as many as 50,000? Yes, we

:07:19.:07:23.

don't know the numbers. Tell us about what is happening with IS,

:07:24.:07:26.

particularly the disappearance of women? There are terrible reports

:07:27.:07:32.

about the barbarism and savagry of the conduct of IS or ISIS. One of

:07:33.:07:41.

the things that we have heard about is 300-500 Yazidi women were

:07:42.:07:46.

abducted and are being held in a building in Mosul. Some reports say

:07:47.:07:50.

they have been sold into sexual slavery, others that they have just

:07:51.:07:59.

been used as concan you on-- concubines, this is horrific and

:08:00.:08:02.

disaster. What have you heard that is going on with that and also with

:08:03.:08:07.

other atrocities? We just hear terrible things, these anecdotal

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stories, and of course the people who are being brought down from the

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mountain in Sinjar, they are also telling terrible stories of dogs

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eating dead bodies on the mountain. We know that the US has the person

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merger but we don't know what -- person merger but we don't know what

:08:31.:08:33.

arms. Have you any evidence on that? We don't know what is supplied but

:08:34.:08:37.

what we need is weaponry to match what IS has. And IS has quite

:08:38.:08:41.

substantial stashes for what they have in Mosul. Looking at the

:08:42.:08:45.

question about Nouri Al-Maliki tonight refusing to go, what do you

:08:46.:08:48.

make of that, and do you think can he hold out? It is yet again another

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disaster politically for Iraq. You know, we were hopeful earlier today

:08:55.:09:01.

when we heard that President Masum had appointed a new Prime Minister

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and we felt that this was progress and now we feel yet again we have

:09:07.:09:12.

managed to pluck defeat out of the jaws of victory, as the expression

:09:13.:09:16.

goes. It is very difficult to know what will happen, do we now have two

:09:17.:09:20.

prime ministers in Iraq, and what will the situation lead to? Thank

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you very much indeed. As political wranglings over the Prime Minister

:09:30.:09:35.

continues, the US has made its efforts to destablise rebels in

:09:36.:09:39.

Iraq. President Obama made it clear it is the Iraqi Government not the

:09:40.:09:45.

US who must solve the problem. There is no American solution to the

:09:46.:09:48.

crisis in Iraq, the only lasting solution is for Iraqis to come

:09:49.:09:51.

together and form an inclusive Government. One that represents the

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legitimate interests of all Iraqis and one that can unify the country's

:09:56.:10:02.

fight against IS. The presidential envoy to Iraq after the US led

:10:03.:10:07.

invasion in 2003 is joining us now. Good evening to you. First of all, a

:10:08.:10:12.

response to what President Obama has now said. President Obama has said

:10:13.:10:14.

it is up to the Iraqi Government to sort this out, we don't appear to

:10:15.:10:18.

have a proper Iraqi Government. Should the US be doing more? You

:10:19.:10:24.

know I think first of all the President needs to be congratulated

:10:25.:10:28.

for making a stuff decision to re-engage in Iraq last week. It was

:10:29.:10:34.

not easy. My concern is the steps announced so far is seems to me are

:10:35.:10:39.

not commensurate with the three objectives he has stated. You have

:10:40.:10:45.

said that no boots on the ground is quite different from combat forces?

:10:46.:10:49.

What do you mean by that and what would you like to see going in? We

:10:50.:10:55.

know there is special ops in and air strike what do you want to see?

:10:56.:10:58.

There are three areas we need to operate in. First of all assist the

:10:59.:11:02.

Kurds, it now it sounds finally we have started giving them some

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weapons. They will need stepped up intelligence, they may need some

:11:07.:11:10.

assistance in planning special operations, sooner or later the

:11:11.:11:14.

issue won't be air power it will be retaking cities, which will involve

:11:15.:11:19.

special operations. Do you mean by that you mean there will be hundreds

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of special American troops on the ground or thousands? There are

:11:23.:11:27.

already hundreds there, I have read 800, I'm not aware of the exact

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number. But it is more a question of planning than actually carrying out

:11:34.:11:37.

operations. The second thing we need to do, once the Government is

:11:38.:11:41.

resolved, and I think it actually will be resolved, once the

:11:42.:11:44.

Government is resolved we need to help the Iraqi Government

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reconstitute the Iraqi army. Maliki's most serious mistake that

:11:49.:11:53.

he made was basically purging that army of trained officers, trained by

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our army back in 2006/07. So we have to help them reconstitute. And

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finally, this is the area where I think the President's policy needs

:12:03.:12:06.

the most evolution, he stated in an interview with the New York Times

:12:07.:12:09.

over the weekend that we would not allow t establishment of an Islamic

:12:10.:12:15.

caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Well in fact they have already established

:12:16.:12:18.

it, at least they have announced it. And that is an American interest to

:12:19.:12:22.

stop that, it is not just a problem for the Iraqis. It is, as he said

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tonight something the Iraqi Government needs to be concerned

:12:28.:12:29.

about, but we need to be concerned about it. The establishment of that

:12:30.:12:33.

is essentially a failure of American foreign policy? By the President's

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own definition he said we would not allow it and now it has happened.

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The question is what do we do now? It seems to me sooner or later the

:12:42.:12:49.

President will have to broaden the air campaign against ISIS, the

:12:50.:12:52.

Islamic extremist, in Iraq and perhaps in Syria. Let me take you

:12:53.:12:59.

right back to Nouri Al-Maliki, basically Nouri Al-Maliki is, as he

:13:00.:13:02.

believes, still the Prime Minister, but at the time, when he first came

:13:03.:13:07.

to power he was backed by the US, he was lauded by George W Bush, that

:13:08.:13:11.

has proved to be a big mistake, hasn't it? I think Maliki has

:13:12.:13:18.

certainly made a real mess of a lot of things, in particular what he did

:13:19.:13:23.

with the well-trained, American-trained army, which

:13:24.:13:28.

collapsed as we all saw in the north as soon as they faced these Islamic

:13:29.:13:34.

extremists. He was devisive from the start, he wasn't inclusive of the

:13:35.:13:38.

Sunnis and that was failure of understanding of the Americans as to

:13:39.:13:44.

his character? Well, yes and also it was a factor that we exacerbated by

:13:45.:13:48.

the withdrawal of the American troops. It was the day after

:13:49.:13:51.

President Obama told him we were going to have no troops at the end

:13:52.:13:55.

of 2011, the very next day in Baghdad that Al-Maliki issued an

:13:56.:14:01.

arrest warrant for his Sunni Vice President. He has been hostile to

:14:02.:14:05.

the Sunnis and that is a very serious mistake. You have talked

:14:06.:14:09.

about Al-Maliki's failure to make the most of American-trained forces

:14:10.:14:15.

and the removal of the cadre, the officer cadre. Right back, wasn't

:14:16.:14:22.

one of the problems was the policy that you and others constituted was

:14:23.:14:25.

the purging of the Armed Forces way back at the beginning, the

:14:26.:14:31.

debafication of the Sunnis, do you think if they had been left in place

:14:32.:14:35.

Iraq would be in such a precarious situation? I don't think it

:14:36.:14:38.

materially affected the situation. Basically what we did was build a

:14:39.:14:42.

new Iraqi army, which is the Iraqi army that defeated Al-Qaeda by the

:14:43.:14:48.

end of 2009. Al-Qaeda was defeated by the Iraqi army. An army trained

:14:49.:14:53.

about the American army, and they collapsed in Mosul. In front of the

:14:54.:14:58.

IS? They melted away because they were commanded by Al-Maliki's Shia

:14:59.:15:03.

cronies put in there. Anybody who knows anything about the military

:15:04.:15:08.

knows if you have an officer leading your platoon who you don't trust you

:15:09.:15:13.

won't fight for him. Those four divisions collapsed up there because

:15:14.:15:18.

the Prime Minister had put in untrained, in most cases, not

:15:19.:15:21.

trained at all, Shia who were loyal to him. You are quite right when you

:15:22.:15:27.

said he has pursued a sectarian political policy. That is absolutely

:15:28.:15:32.

right. A real mistake. Sorry to interrupt, was he not in a sense set

:15:33.:15:38.

on that path, or different almost free rein to do that, by the fact

:15:39.:15:48.

that after this purging by the in coming forces of the Sunni, if they

:15:49.:15:51.

were left in place we wouldn't have that? If they were left in place we

:15:52.:15:56.

would have Saddam in place. And both we and the Iraqis would be a lot

:15:57.:16:01.

worse off. Now the sectarian problems... It is a separate

:16:02.:16:05.

problem, excuse me, it is a separate problem, you removed Saddam, you

:16:06.:16:10.

didn't have to remove the whole group of Sunnis in power? It is not

:16:11.:16:15.

a separate issue. Look we can relitigate it all if you want, we

:16:16.:16:19.

are where we are, I agree that Al-Maliki has pursued a sharply

:16:20.:16:23.

sectarian policy. One that he accelerated when he learned that we

:16:24.:16:26.

were going to have no troops there any more at the end of 2011. And I

:16:27.:16:34.

think, I hope that he will now find way to disengage from this stand-off

:16:35.:16:38.

that your reporter talked about earlier that is going on in Baghdad

:16:39.:16:44.

tonight. And that we will see a new Prime Minister put together a new

:16:45.:16:48.

Government that we can help reconstitute this army. But if those

:16:49.:16:58.

troops on the street are at Al-Maliki's behest and there is

:16:59.:17:01.

trouble, you heard what experts said in the package there, this will be a

:17:02.:17:05.

disaster for Iraq. If there is a meltdown in Baghdad, Iraq

:17:06.:17:10.

essentially will break up? I agree that if those troops wind up

:17:11.:17:16.

fighting to keep Al-Maliki in place then we are in a new ball game

:17:17.:17:20.

entirely. I'm not yet confident that is the direction it will go. There

:17:21.:17:24.

is certainly a risk and the risk is very great if it goes that

:17:25.:17:27.

direction, there is no question. In terms of the in coming Prime

:17:28.:17:31.

Minister, in who you know from a previous incarnation, have you any

:17:32.:17:35.

evidence that he would be more inclusive? You are betting the house

:17:36.:17:39.

on that, is there any evidence that he would be? I don't think we're

:17:40.:17:44.

betting the house, I think the Iraqis are betting the house.

:17:45.:17:47.

Although the Vice President has congratulated him. He was a minister

:17:48.:17:52.

of communications in the very first interim Government. He showed some

:17:53.:17:57.

courage there by proceeding to open the country for the first time to

:17:58.:18:03.

cellphone usage. They are now 23 million Iraqis with cell phones. I

:18:04.:18:07.

had a lot of dealings with him, but I don't have a judgment as to how he

:18:08.:18:10.

will perform as Prime Minister because I haven't seen him for ten

:18:11.:18:14.

years. He has been in a higher position since then as Deputy

:18:15.:18:21.

Speaker. He comes from the same wing of the party as Jaffrey, who was the

:18:22.:18:30.

first Prime Minister. He said in an interview in the Huffington Post,

:18:31.:18:33.

that he would take assistance from anyone to deal with IS, including

:18:34.:18:38.

the Iranians. You of course had urged the Americans to move faster

:18:39.:18:43.

in combatting IS. But the thing is, if people like him feel the

:18:44.:18:46.

Americans are not doing enough what is to stop him turning to the

:18:47.:18:53.

Iranians? Well, the Iranians obviously it is a complicated

:18:54.:18:57.

situation for them too. They certainly have, one has to say, been

:18:58.:19:02.

strengthened in the last ten years in their position in Iraq. There are

:19:03.:19:08.

reports that the Iranians also have told Al-Maliki it is time to move

:19:09.:19:11.

on. I don't know if that is true. It is certainly true that Grand

:19:12.:19:20.

Ayatollah Sistani has called for a more inclusive Government. He

:19:21.:19:23.

doesn't represent the Iranians obviously. But there is a lot of

:19:24.:19:29.

pressure are on the Shia side for Al-Maliki to move aside. One final

:19:30.:19:34.

question. Surely if you have IS, supposedly, beheading people,

:19:35.:19:38.

burying them alive, crucifying people, abducting 300 women if that

:19:39.:19:44.

is not a cause for action what is, if you didn't go into Syria is there

:19:45.:19:48.

any chance you will help sort this out? If I were advising the

:19:49.:19:52.

administration, as I said earlier, I would now call for a broader

:19:53.:19:57.

military air campaign against the Jihadists, not just because it is in

:19:58.:20:00.

Iraq's interest, but because it is in America's interest. We saw the

:20:01.:20:06.

problem when the balance tan took over Afghanistan -- the Taliban took

:20:07.:20:11.

over Afghanistan. The identity of the group that calls itself Islamic

:20:12.:20:16.

State and which has called a caliphate is not entirely clear.

:20:17.:20:20.

Their stock has risen massively ever since they routed Iraqi forces in

:20:21.:20:25.

June and taking control of sophisticated US weaponry which they

:20:26.:20:29.

deployed in tandem with barbaric violence, including beheadings and

:20:30.:20:35.

crucifixions. The self-style caliphate spreading

:20:36.:20:38.

across Syria and Iraq is redrawing the boundaries in the Middle East,

:20:39.:20:42.

in creating huge unease both there and in the west. Islamic State as

:20:43.:20:47.

ISIS now brand themselves control significant parts of Iraq and Syria.

:20:48.:20:52.

Including cities, oilfields and border crossings. At the centre of

:20:53.:20:59.

the group is this man, Badadi, Islamic State fighters pledge

:21:00.:21:03.

allegance to him directly, his only public appearance is from a mosque

:21:04.:21:09.

in moss sell last month. The reaction to ISIS supporters is

:21:10.:21:14.

precisely what you would expect from a cult, it is just never ending

:21:15.:21:22.

praise for Bagdadi in this uncritical admiration of him. It is

:21:23.:21:28.

indigive of just how -- indicative of how much the Islamic State

:21:29.:21:35.

resembles a classic cult. With a declaration of a caliphate, he's now

:21:36.:21:41.

the new figurehead of global Jihad. Vice Magazine filmed celebrations

:21:42.:21:48.

amongst his supporters, with the declaration also brought Bagdadi

:21:49.:21:54.

into conflict with others in the Jihadi sphere, notably Al-Qaeda.

:21:55.:22:00.

Islamic State has fought with the officially sanctioned Al-Qaeda

:22:01.:22:03.

affiliate in Syria. Just like Bagdadi, the founder of the Islamic

:22:04.:22:10.

State's predecessor in Iraq had a tense relationship with Al-Qaeda. He

:22:11.:22:15.

was famed for indiscriminate bombings and videoing beheadings of

:22:16.:22:20.

his captives, tactics Al-Qaeda criticised for being too extreme.

:22:21.:22:25.

Bagdadi appears to favour the brutal approach. These pictures of captured

:22:26.:22:31.

Iraqi Shia soldiers before they were massacred. Al-Qaeda was very unhappy

:22:32.:22:36.

with Zakawi because he was killing a lot of Muslims and engaging in

:22:37.:22:40.

violent tactics and killing a lot of Shias, a lot of things they

:22:41.:22:44.

considered to be unproductive, and Bagdadi today is the air heir of

:22:45.:22:50.

that tradition and approach, which is completely different from tactics

:22:51.:23:00.

and strategy and even ideology. Vice magazine filmed the Islamic State

:23:01.:23:05.

morality police on patrol, unlike his predecessor, Bagdadi and the

:23:06.:23:08.

Islamic State have been far more involved in the governing of a

:23:09.:23:11.

functioning state, even producing detailed financial accounts. I think

:23:12.:23:15.

for ISIS to be able to control territory in two different countries

:23:16.:23:18.

with a large number of fighters requires a very high degree of

:23:19.:23:22.

organisational sophistication. Their record keeping is part of that.

:23:23.:23:26.

Al-Qaeda kept records as well, but for ISIS to do it on the scale they

:23:27.:23:29.

have done with the precision they have done certainly suggests a level

:23:30.:23:36.

of sophistication and meticulousness that is impressive. The test now for

:23:37.:23:43.

Islamic State is alongside military gains they can keep hold of the

:23:44.:23:47.

territories without alienating the populations under their control.

:23:48.:23:50.

We have the Middle East correspondent for the Independent

:23:51.:23:56.

Newspaper and author of The Jihadis Return: ISIS. First of all, do you

:23:57.:24:03.

think IS is ultimately much more of a threat than Al-Qaeda? Much more of

:24:04.:24:13.

a threat, yes. It is far bigger by a factor of 100 or more, it is much

:24:14.:24:18.

better organised. Al-Qaeda was always a rather rag-bag of people.

:24:19.:24:23.

It was never much of an organisation. Although when it was

:24:24.:24:27.

demonised after 9/11 the appearance was given that it was a sort of

:24:28.:24:31.

well-structured group. But it is very different from ISIS, which is

:24:32.:24:36.

truly dangerous and better organised and more experienced. Do you think

:24:37.:24:40.

it is fair to say that the west created Islamic State? Yes. I mean

:24:41.:24:50.

they created the context in which it could grow through the war in Iraq

:24:51.:24:58.

and then they did something very specific in 2011 that they encuraged

:24:59.:25:07.

the rebellion -- encouraged the rebellion against President Assad in

:25:08.:25:12.

Syria, taken over very rapidly by Jihadis. And this is where ISIS was

:25:13.:25:20.

able to grow. Iraqi politicians were warning at the time, they suddenly

:25:21.:25:23.

told me every time I saw them that if this war in Syria goes on it will

:25:24.:25:29.

destablise Iraq. The Civil War will come back there. There was a

:25:30.:25:32.

complete lack of understanding of that in Washington and London. Is

:25:33.:25:35.

there also a lack of understanding that ISIS can be defeated by air

:25:36.:25:42.

strikes? You can do something through air strike, particularly

:25:43.:25:48.

around Erbil, this is fairly flat country, there is no cover and

:25:49.:25:54.

trees. You can stop them on the roads. But it is not going to defeat

:25:55.:25:59.

them. Other parts of the country are much more urbanised, more difficult

:26:00.:26:05.

to use aircraft, you also need good intelligence. In 2003 American

:26:06.:26:09.

aircraft were very active in this area. And then they had forward air

:26:10.:26:14.

observers with radios calling in air strikes from overhead. That works

:26:15.:26:19.

fairly effectively. But ISIS is very well organised, its fighters are

:26:20.:26:25.

very fanatical. It has about three or four successful military

:26:26.:26:29.

campaigns under its belt since it took Mosul on the 10th June. It was

:26:30.:26:34.

fighting pretty well before that, though nobody really noticed it in

:26:35.:26:40.

Fallujah. Is the best way to guarantee the defeat of ISIS a

:26:41.:26:45.

unified, functioning Government in Baghdad? Yes, I mean it is. But how

:26:46.:26:52.

you get that, that is what we haven't had for about half a

:26:53.:26:56.

century. And there isn't much sign of it. In Baghdad people say well,

:26:57.:27:04.

Washington is encouraging them to have an inclusive Government, that

:27:05.:27:08.

will include some Sunni who we didn't share power with before. Hold

:27:09.:27:13.

on a minute the Sunni have already taken the Sunni provinces so you are

:27:14.:27:17.

offering to share power with people who have already taken power where

:27:18.:27:22.

they live. Then you have the Sunni politicians in Baghdad who don't

:27:23.:27:25.

dare go back to their homes because their heads will be cut off. Even if

:27:26.:27:30.

there is a unified Government in Baghdad, in that Government there

:27:31.:27:34.

will not be Sunnis who will be able to take onnies skis? -- on ISIS? No,

:27:35.:27:44.

Al-Maliki going is not a piece of magic which is going to solve these

:27:45.:27:49.

problems. I mean Al-Maliki was a terrible Prime Minister, he's

:27:50.:27:51.

responsible for many things have have gone wrong. But he's not

:27:52.:27:55.

responsible for everything. And things aren't just going to click

:27:56.:28:00.

into place because he goes. There is a hope among the Shia and foreign

:28:01.:28:07.

Governments that Al-Maliki goes, the Sunni community gets what it wants,

:28:08.:28:14.

then it turns on ISIS and kicks them out. And we have an agreement. But I

:28:15.:28:19.

mean just look who they are facing, ISIS is well prepared for a stab in

:28:20.:28:23.

the back, anybody who tries to do that to them they will kill them

:28:24.:28:26.

first. So I don't think this is going to happen. There isn't any

:28:27.:28:31.

sign of the Sunni community redividing and part of it pledging

:28:32.:28:35.

its loyalty to Baghdad instead of the new caliphate. Thank you very

:28:36.:28:41.

much indeed. Now as the British Army's withdrawal from Afghanistan

:28:42.:28:44.

approaches, there is much talk of their legacy in the region. What of

:28:45.:28:53.

the legacy at home? Emergency medicine doctors we have been

:28:54.:28:58.

investigating about the valuable experience it might bring to the

:28:59.:29:05.

NHS. At a fake Camp Bastion that craters for researching entirely

:29:06.:29:15.

fake injuries. This is Camp Bastion Hospital but it

:29:16.:29:18.

isn't Afghanistan it is York. Here the army have set up a simulation of

:29:19.:29:24.

the entire military field hospital, these medics are the last hospital

:29:25.:29:28.

team deployed to Afghanistan, where they will face casualties for real.

:29:29.:29:39.

I served in the British Army for four years. Now I'm an emergency

:29:40.:29:44.

medicine doctor in the NHS. I have come to see what civilian medicine

:29:45.:29:48.

can learn from medical simulation at this level. It is a method called

:29:49.:29:56.

macro-simulation, replicating exactly the conditions medics will

:29:57.:30:01.

face in the field. Today starts with a helicopter rescue. I'm now in a

:30:02.:30:07.

replica of the helicopter they use out in Afghanistan. The team behind

:30:08.:30:12.

me are prepping to receive three casualties that are going to arrive

:30:13.:30:16.

all at the same time. This place is about to get incredibly busy. The

:30:17.:30:26.

scenario is so realistic that the medics are engulfed in the roar of

:30:27.:30:31.

rotar blades and the heat of a helicopter engine. It is really dark

:30:32.:30:36.

in here and there is even the smell of aviation fuel. In Afghanistan

:30:37.:30:40.

when they are flying the lights have to be out. And that's exactly what

:30:41.:30:44.

they have done here. I can see little red torches for light. After

:30:45.:30:49.

treating their patients in pitch darkness, the medics have to

:30:50.:30:54.

transfer them the moment the helicopter lands. So what we have

:30:55.:30:59.

got now is the casualty who has been packaged up and has been stablised

:31:00.:31:03.

on the helicopter and is now being transferred into the hospital. The

:31:04.:31:10.

casualties are rushed into one of the most advanced simulated

:31:11.:31:16.

hospitals ever built. It is essentially a hospital with the roof

:31:17.:31:21.

taken off, and below us we have got 450 personnel, and this is the first

:31:22.:31:26.

time that they will have all come together to work. Every medic is

:31:27.:31:32.

being closely monitored. In charge of the whole operation is doctor and

:31:33.:31:39.

army Brigadier Kevin Beaton. He was my squadron commander in Bosnia and

:31:40.:31:45.

inspired me to study medicine. He spent the last ten years ago driving

:31:46.:31:51.

innovations in medical training. We use video and sound to record all of

:31:52.:31:56.

the activities at the various stages. That screen is showing a

:31:57.:32:01.

patient actually being treated inside the helicopter simulator. And

:32:02.:32:05.

we can switch between all of these different scenes and shots of what

:32:06.:32:10.

is going on to get a feel for how each department is performing. I

:32:11.:32:18.

think the best analogy that we have found is we have moved from driving

:32:19.:32:22.

your car into the local Kwik Fit to now something akin to the Ferrari

:32:23.:32:29.

pit stop at a Formula One event. Where there is a whole team of

:32:30.:32:33.

people stood around the patient ready immediately to start get to go

:32:34.:32:40.

grips with what we have to do. Research into macro-simulation means

:32:41.:32:56.

it improves team work which improves chances for patients. Research shows

:32:57.:33:02.

it contributes to reduced risk to patients. Another study called it a

:33:03.:33:08.

finishing school for experts. The principle behind macro-simulation is

:33:09.:33:12.

that it is as close to reality as possible. Actors and make-up artists

:33:13.:33:20.

mimic even the most severe injuries. Here we have a casualty that we are

:33:21.:33:24.

making up with multiple fragmentation wounds, mostly to both

:33:25.:33:28.

lower limbs. We have smaller peppering, and then we have got

:33:29.:33:36.

quite substantial deep into this side. It looks gruesome but it is

:33:37.:33:41.

fake it is not real. I have never seen anything like this working with

:33:42.:33:47.

the NHS, I'm an emergency medicine doctor and I have not seen this

:33:48.:33:51.

level of simulation. But I certainly think we could do with it. With the

:33:52.:33:57.

British Army withdrawing from Afghanistan, this precise replica of

:33:58.:34:03.

Camp Bastion will be dismantled. But macro-simulation will continue and

:34:04.:34:09.

it has already shift the frontier of medical training. We are better now

:34:10.:34:13.

at preparing ourselves to give good medical care to our people than I

:34:14.:34:18.

think we have ever been. Although simulation training is currently

:34:19.:34:23.

used within the NHS, it is not at this scale or sophistication. It

:34:24.:34:29.

tends to focus on individuals and specific techniques rather than

:34:30.:34:31.

developing the skills of the whole team. There are 147,000 doctors

:34:32.:34:41.

working in the NHS. But only about 6,000 of them attended simulation

:34:42.:34:47.

training last year. The NHS has its own set of unique challenges, but

:34:48.:34:52.

the evidence from the military indicates that macro-simulation on

:34:53.:34:58.

this scale brings real benefits both to medical teams and their patients.

:34:59.:35:04.

Having witnessed it in action today I'm personally convinced it has the

:35:05.:35:08.

potential to make a real difference in the NHS.

:35:09.:35:13.

It is fewer than 40 days until the Scottish referendum and displaying a

:35:14.:35:21.

split personality of which Robert Louis Stevenson would be proud of,

:35:22.:35:27.

according to a study voters are anxious about the outcomes of

:35:28.:35:29.

independence but support has increased. On the all-important

:35:30.:35:33.

question of the economy the survey finds the referendum campaign has

:35:34.:35:37.

increased the amount of voters who think the economy will be worse

:35:38.:35:43.

under independence, from 34% in the last four years to 44%, on currency

:35:44.:35:48.

76% want to keep the pound. It is the most detailed piece of research

:35:49.:35:51.

ahead of the vote. Here is a summary of the findings.

:35:52.:36:24.

The three years that lie ahead of us now, are the most important in our

:36:25.:36:31.

party's history and our country's recent history. Delegates, it is

:36:32.:36:49.

game on for Scotland! Yes I certainly seemed to have mobilised

:36:50.:36:52.

the potential vote, this level of support for independence is towards

:36:53.:36:55.

the high end of what it has been over the last dozen years or so. But

:36:56.:37:00.

it is not clear that the yes side have made the kind of progress that

:37:01.:37:04.

will be needed to move from the baseline support to the 50% vote

:37:05.:37:06.

they need in the referendum. You can't tell us what currency we

:37:07.:37:39.

will have. Alastair you will pick the pound because it belongs to

:37:40.:37:49.

Scotland as much as England. No other question you ask about

:37:50.:37:54.

independence demarcates voters into the yes and no camps as sharply as

:37:55.:37:58.

the economic issue does. The economic issue has been prominent

:37:59.:38:02.

from the beginning of the referendum campaign, it has always looked like

:38:03.:38:06.

the most important issue, it has simply become more important when

:38:07.:38:10.

deciding to vote for origins independence.

:38:11.:38:49.

I'm well aware of the fact that whilst many people have made up

:38:50.:38:54.

their minds, there is still quite a large number of people who have

:38:55.:38:57.

still to decide which way they are going on the referendum. We have

:38:58.:39:00.

just six weeks to convince them. I relish the position of being the

:39:01.:39:05.

underdogs, I think that is the best position to be in a campaign. The

:39:06.:39:08.

trick is not to be ahead today, it is to be ahead on September 18th,

:39:09.:39:15.

that is what we intend to do. To discuss an independent Scotland

:39:16.:39:17.

economic prospects from Inverness, we have an economist and currency

:39:18.:39:24.

expert, Sir Ronald McDonald. And we have our guest who is campaigning

:39:25.:39:30.

for independence. If more people this year believe the economy would

:39:31.:39:33.

be worse under independence than they did last year, less than 40

:39:34.:39:37.

days out you have lost the argument? That is not what we are saying on

:39:38.:39:41.

the ground. We are engaging with business and the public. What we are

:39:42.:39:44.

seeing is when we explain in Scotland we generate more tax per

:39:45.:39:50.

head, we have got higher GDP, 15%, than the rest of the UK, and

:39:51.:39:53.

Scotland has a vibrant economy, not just oil and gas, life science,

:39:54.:39:56.

manufacturing, education, financial service, we see people coming

:39:57.:40:00.

towards the economic argument that is moving towards yes. That is

:40:01.:40:03.

anecdotal evidence from you on the streets, that is not the same as

:40:04.:40:06.

having a proper survey of attitudes and views of Scots? Well in terms of

:40:07.:40:13.

polls and surveys I will leave crystal ball gazing to the

:40:14.:40:18.

politicians and the pollsters. We are speaking to the public out there

:40:19.:40:23.

every night doing that. We are getting back that people are moving

:40:24.:40:27.

towards a yes vote in terms of the strength of the economy. You have

:40:28.:40:31.

studied the economy and the currency. Presumably this move

:40:32.:40:38.

accords with your view, perhaps not from you but people like you engaged

:40:39.:40:45.

in a Project Fear in the economy, maybe that is taking hold, the fear

:40:46.:40:48.

rather than the facts? I think there is a huge amount of uncertainty

:40:49.:40:53.

around the economy, particularly over the issue of currency. In

:40:54.:40:58.

coming at this as an economic analysis, I believe that the real

:40:59.:41:06.

issues have not been played out to the public. A bit late now? Not in

:41:07.:41:12.

the currency, people don't understand why for example the pou

:41:13.:41:17.

wouldn't be a suitable mechanism for an independent Scotland. It is

:41:18.:41:19.

really the worst of all worlds for an independent Scotland. I mean I

:41:20.:41:22.

can see why in the survey people have said they would like the pound,

:41:23.:41:27.

because it will remove uncertainty. But because Scotland is going to be

:41:28.:41:31.

such a different economy post-independence, it is a crazy

:41:32.:41:35.

idea to set the pound as the centre of your macro-economic policy. Well

:41:36.:41:40.

there is the view of a currency expert, so why don't the yes

:41:41.:41:45.

campaign simply come out and say, look, there is a Plan B, and unlike

:41:46.:41:51.

George Osborne, there is a Plan B, there is a different way of doing

:41:52.:41:55.

it, it is with a Scottish currency, pegged to sterling. But this

:41:56.:41:58.

insistence of hanging on to the idea of some kind of monetary union when

:41:59.:42:01.

you know that all the opposition leaders are dead against it? It is

:42:02.:42:07.

interesting that Ronald's fifth world was a currency issue, the

:42:08.:42:12.

currency issue became the last bastion of the scare tactics of

:42:13.:42:15.

Better Together. The Scottish Government have made it clear what

:42:16.:42:18.

their position on this is. The UK Government have made their position

:42:19.:42:23.

clear on this. The reality is no Chancellor of the Exchequer,

:42:24.:42:25.

especially in an election year will make it more difficult for

:42:26.:42:30.

businesses in England and Wales to transact with Scottish customers, it

:42:31.:42:33.

is economic and political vandalism to suggest that would be the case.

:42:34.:42:37.

Let's turn it on its head, would Scotland, using sterling, be good

:42:38.:42:46.

for the rest of the UK? Well, it would be in a sense, but if we are

:42:47.:42:53.

talking about comparing say a flexible exchange rate or separate

:42:54.:42:57.

currency, which I think is what the SNP are on about, they are referring

:42:58.:43:03.

to this 400 smell I don't know or five hundred million transaction

:43:04.:43:08.

cost the rest of the UK will have to bear. What they would continue to do

:43:09.:43:13.

is invoicing in sterling, all of the costs would be born by the Scottish

:43:14.:43:23.

business and public. Moving on to the question of oil, so much is

:43:24.:43:28.

hinging on oil, and yet the reality is of huge price fluctuations, the

:43:29.:43:34.

yes campaign say a barrel of oil in 2016 will be $110, the Office for

:43:35.:43:42.

Budget Responsibility says $98. You cannot base an economy on the

:43:43.:43:46.

fluctuating price of a barrel of oil? That is what I said at the

:43:47.:43:50.

start, we don't balance our economy on oil and gas. Without oil and gas

:43:51.:43:55.

our GDP is the same as the rest of the UK. When we look at oil and gas

:43:56.:44:00.

in terms of North Sea gas and as you know yourself there is huge finds

:44:01.:44:03.

around about the west of Shetland, oil and gas will be here for many

:44:04.:44:06.

years to come, there is no doubt about that. It is only the OBR who

:44:07.:44:11.

think that oil price also go down, most suspect it will be going up.

:44:12.:44:16.

Thank you very much indeed. Tomorrow morning's front page, just beginning

:44:17.:44:18.

with the Times: That is it for tonight, we leave you

:44:19.:45:05.

with a wit of free running which is defined as the art of expressing

:45:06.:45:09.

yourself in your environment, usually urban without limitation of

:45:10.:45:15.

movement. This was a French free run family doing exactly that on the

:45:16.:45:19.

roofs of Paris, when they acted out the newest version of the video game

:45:20.:45:26.

Assassins Creed, set in the French Revolution.

:45:27.:46:34.

We're flooding on going watch. Away from tomorrow morning we

:46:35.:46:35.

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