17/10/2016 Newsnight


17/10/2016

With Evan Davis. Mark Urban analyses the battle for Mosul. Plus the child abuse inquiry, the decision on Heathrow, air pollution, and is UKIP 'ungovernable'?


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Transcript


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Astride the River Tigris, a city of over two million,

:00:09.:00:13.

But now a war zone, the fight to drive ISIS out and to get

:00:14.:00:25.

This is perhaps the closest thing to a straight good-versus-evil

:00:26.:00:28.

battle that will occur anywhere this year, at least, outside of fiction.

:00:29.:00:36.

It's certainly worth understanding it, so we'll be

:00:37.:00:38.

examining the military, humanitarian and political

:00:39.:00:39.

Also tonight, this man was recently thought to be

:00:40.:00:44.

Today he said the party is in a "death spiral" and has

:00:45.:00:50.

This man still wants to be leader of the party -

:00:51.:00:54.

And find out what our technology editor David Grossman is breathing

:00:55.:00:59.

What I'm not separated from is the fumes. You can taste them. But what

:01:00.:01:13.

am I breathing in? This bike has been set with an air quality

:01:14.:01:15.

monitor. Will Brexit mean weaker

:01:16.:01:16.

air quality laws? The battle has been long-awaited:

:01:17.:01:22.

the so-called Islamic State has been in control of Mosul for over two

:01:23.:01:26.

years and is now defending it against an alliance of Iraqi army,

:01:27.:01:30.

Kurdish fighters, some controversial Shia militias and, of course,

:01:31.:01:34.

some US forces, too. This is not the battle

:01:35.:01:40.

to eradicate IS completely. It is a fight to drive the group

:01:41.:01:43.

into a humiliating But there are myriad

:01:44.:01:46.

challenges ahead. It sometimes motivates its fighters

:01:47.:01:52.

by executing the ones Then there is the humantarian

:01:53.:01:59.

challenge, 1.5 million There will, at some point

:02:00.:02:02.

after the battle, be a need Think of how difficult it has been

:02:03.:02:10.

between the republicans and unionists in Northern Ireland,

:02:11.:02:14.

and then ask how hard it will be We'll be looking at all these,

:02:15.:02:18.

but first, here's our diplomatic To the east of Mosul today

:02:19.:02:23.

the first easy victories. But signs also of the IS group's

:02:24.:02:34.

capacity to resist. A car speeds into a group of Kurdish

:02:35.:02:44.

armoured vehicles before IS may be losing, but it's

:02:45.:02:47.

still ready to defend Lots of the Isis leaders

:02:48.:02:54.

and many of the fighters will turn towards Raqqa and Syria

:02:55.:03:06.

as their last stronghold But I think it will be easier

:03:07.:03:08.

to defeat Isis then, because we have to bear in mind Isis

:03:09.:03:20.

is 95, if not more, percent, If they are pushed out of Iraq

:03:21.:03:23.

into Syria I think it The city is now surrounded,

:03:24.:03:29.

or almost so, a narrow corridor is being left open to the west

:03:30.:03:32.

to allow IS fighters Kurdish brigades are now pushing

:03:33.:03:35.

in from the east and north. Shia militias will advance

:03:36.:03:40.

from the south-west. Given the risk of sectarian

:03:41.:03:45.

conflict, these elements are meant Iraqi federal troops and loyal Sunni

:03:46.:03:48.

militia will then enter the city Why leave a corridor open and drop

:03:49.:03:56.

leaflets on the city for weeks before when that would seem

:03:57.:04:10.

to violate any idea of surprise, Well, the answer lies in concerns

:04:11.:04:12.

about the more than 1 million people And the feeling that if there is any

:04:13.:04:17.

sort of prolonged fighting in that urban space it could have

:04:18.:04:26.

dire humanitarian consequences. Mosul, you are talking

:04:27.:04:31.

about 1.5 million of population. Can you imagine if Daesh

:04:32.:04:37.

would take the risk? I'm sure they would do it,

:04:38.:04:45.

to push the civilians to leave the city then you have

:04:46.:04:49.

1 million refugees. It's going to be one

:04:50.:04:51.

of the worst catastrophes. The aim is to keep the different

:04:52.:04:59.

militias apart once the city's taken, because Mosul has long been

:05:00.:05:04.

a cockpit of rivalry between Sunni Isis as a force has more or less

:05:05.:05:07.

kept all the guns pointing In other words, pointing

:05:08.:05:17.

towards Isis themselves. After they are defeated militarily

:05:18.:05:20.

it's much more likely for us to see And we are not just talking

:05:21.:05:23.

about sectarian Shia-Sunni conflict, but Sunni-Sunni conflict,

:05:24.:05:37.

Shia-Shia conflict and And if losing Mosul would be

:05:38.:05:38.

a heavy blow for IS, it still has its Syrian

:05:39.:05:42.

stronghold of Raqqa. The prospect of an assault

:05:43.:05:44.

there is still distant. In Syria I think it's

:05:45.:05:46.

much more complicated. In Syria it took a dimension

:05:47.:05:57.

like Kafkaesque, a crisis, it has I don't know, when we compare it's

:05:58.:06:00.

much easier to see Iraq Ten years ago the Islamic State

:06:01.:06:07.

was proclaimed in And it was overwhelmed

:06:08.:06:17.

by a combination of force and splits The Islamic State in the form

:06:18.:06:21.

that it is now being fought involved many of the same people,

:06:22.:06:27.

tribes and places. And there's the warning

:06:28.:06:33.

from history. If there isn't a convincing

:06:34.:06:35.

political solution for those Sunni communities it's quite likely that

:06:36.:06:38.

another form of the same jihadist ideology will break out

:06:39.:06:40.

into the open again. The Mosul offensive can deal

:06:41.:06:50.

with the immediate problem of a Jihadist group holding a major

:06:51.:06:56.

Iraqi city, but what it do is soothe -- but what it cannot do is soothe

:06:57.:07:09.

the ruling sectarianism of that country and the sense of grievance

:07:10.:07:12.

felt by many Sunnis. Well, Mark has set out some

:07:13.:07:14.

of the difficulties - and we are going to take these step

:07:15.:07:17.

by step now. I'm joined by retired US

:07:18.:07:19.

Army Colonel Peter Mansoor, who was an executive officer

:07:20.:07:22.

to General David Petraeus in Iraq and is now a professor of military

:07:23.:07:24.

history at Ohio State University. Rachel Harvey, who is an emergency

:07:25.:07:27.

responder with British charity ShelterBox, who is joining us

:07:28.:07:29.

from Irbil in Iraq. Toby Dodge, an international

:07:30.:07:32.

relations expert from the LSE, is in the studio along

:07:33.:07:34.

with Renad Mansour, a fellow of Chatham House

:07:35.:07:36.

and Middle East expert. The evening. Let's start with the

:07:37.:07:52.

military. -- good evening. Peter, you are in military expert. How

:07:53.:07:58.

painful can IS make this military operation to get the city back? It

:07:59.:08:05.

is going to the slow grind. As General Steve Townsend, the

:08:06.:08:08.

commander of US forces in Iraq has said, the battle is going to take

:08:09.:08:14.

weeks maybe months to culminate. The Prime Minister of Iraq wants to

:08:15.:08:17.

finish it by the end of the year. The result is inevitable. The Iraqi

:08:18.:08:23.

forces with US air support will end up crashing Isis. But it'll be a

:08:24.:08:29.

hard fight for that to happen. The enemy has had more than two years to

:08:30.:08:37.

dig in to urban landscape. Exciting palls of oil to darken the skies.

:08:38.:08:42.

And make it harder for air strikes to target him. -- igniting pools of

:08:43.:08:52.

oil. He has lit roadside bombs. The Kurdish forces will meet a stiff

:08:53.:08:57.

resistance from an enemy that had a long time to prepare a battlefield

:08:58.:09:01.

all the way. Many have said that the outcome is not really in doubt. That

:09:02.:09:07.

assembly the numbers, is it, the numbers on the offensive to take the

:09:08.:09:10.

city of the outnumbering those in city defending? -- that assessment

:09:11.:09:20.

is the numbers. You may have upwards of 6000, 8000 Isis fighters in the

:09:21.:09:24.

city. Opposing them are tens of thousands of Iraqi troops, Kurdish,

:09:25.:09:31.

Shi'ite militias if they are needed. And they are backed up by US air

:09:32.:09:35.

power and coalition air power that can make any defensive position a

:09:36.:09:45.

shambles at the drop of a bomb. You will see a lot of firepower being

:09:46.:09:49.

used and artillery guided rockets, as well. This will be a one-sided

:09:50.:09:56.

fight. Does that raise the possibility that in rescuing the

:09:57.:10:01.

people of Mosul that a lot of them will be killed in the process? I

:10:02.:10:06.

think that inevitable, quite frankly. This is war. You cannot a

:10:07.:10:11.

bloodless combat. They've left open an avenue for escape for civilians.

:10:12.:10:18.

It is doubtful Isis will allow the civilians to flee. Isis wants a

:10:19.:10:22.

humanitarian catastrophe to use it as propaganda. This is going to be

:10:23.:10:28.

tough on the people of Mosul. But if you want to end the war against Isis

:10:29.:10:33.

you have to take the city. Thanks. Just on the timing. Months, not

:10:34.:10:40.

weeks, is this what we think of this military offensive? The analysis is

:10:41.:10:43.

completely correct. We are not even in the city yet. It is important to

:10:44.:10:47.

note. It'll take some time to move in, take the villages, especially

:10:48.:10:54.

because it is coalition forces, many of them don't agree or coordinate

:10:55.:10:58.

with each other. But they only have one enemy. They are looking to get

:10:59.:11:02.

rid of that one enemy, which is the so-called Islamic State. And they

:11:03.:11:07.

need to limit civilian casualties. Some generals we are speaking to

:11:08.:11:10.

have said it is a matter of interest, inch by inch, and block

:11:11.:11:15.

could take days to take over inside the city. They are conscious of the

:11:16.:11:19.

fact that it isn't just military, they need to make sure the civilian

:11:20.:11:25.

population is OK what happens. That brings us to the issue of the

:11:26.:11:29.

humanitarian crisis. Rachel Harvey, I wonder if I can talk to you about

:11:30.:11:38.

that. Set out, you are over in Irbil, just set out how ready you

:11:39.:11:43.

are, and what expectations there are of a humanitarian out poor from the

:11:44.:11:52.

people of Mosul. In a sense it has been a strange response falls. --

:11:53.:11:59.

strange response. We don't normally get this kind of forewarning of the

:12:00.:12:03.

humanitarian crisis. Normally we are reacting to an event after something

:12:04.:12:07.

has happened. That is a positive. But other than that everything is

:12:08.:12:10.

unknown. We don't know how many people are in the city at the

:12:11.:12:14.

moment. It is all estimates. We don't know how many of those people

:12:15.:12:18.

will be able to flee. We don't know when they will flee or in which

:12:19.:12:21.

direction they will flee. It is a challenging situation to know how to

:12:22.:12:28.

best respond. We've had months of planning. That has allowed

:12:29.:12:32.

organisations to pre-position aid in places as close to the areas where

:12:33.:12:41.

we think people will arrive. ShelterBox Is one of many

:12:42.:12:44.

organisations working together. It'll come down to communication to

:12:45.:12:48.

see our effective this response can be. We will have to be flexible. We

:12:49.:12:53.

will have to adapt to events as they unfold on the ground. The

:12:54.:12:55.

humanitarian response will be dictated by what happens militarily.

:12:56.:12:59.

As the military response on faults we will have to react to the impact

:13:00.:13:11.

of that. -- on faults -- unfolds. The people will probably escaped the

:13:12.:13:17.

Kurdish areas, won't they? That is our working assumption at the

:13:18.:13:21.

moment. But this is a region that has already taken in a number of

:13:22.:13:26.

people, both Syrian refugees and Iraqis already displaced by conflict

:13:27.:13:31.

over the past two years. This area would say it is already struggling

:13:32.:13:34.

to look after those people already here. And now it is going to be

:13:35.:13:39.

expected to take hundreds of thousands more people. There is a

:13:40.:13:42.

scarcity of land on which to build camps. There is a shortage of

:13:43.:13:52.

resources. And with the best well, with all of these uncertainties of

:13:53.:13:54.

war you can plan a military operation as tight as you possibly

:13:55.:13:57.

can but when it comes down to it military operations don't always go

:13:58.:14:01.

100% smoothly. The humanitarian community is trying to make sure we

:14:02.:14:06.

have aid in key places to cover an area wherever people are likely to

:14:07.:14:09.

come. They are going to need shelter, food, they may need health,

:14:10.:14:14.

they will certainly need some kind of protection. We are trying to get

:14:15.:14:18.

all of those things together in key places so we can respond to all

:14:19.:14:23.

their needs. These are likely to be highly traumatised people and

:14:24.:14:27.

exhausted people. The arranges inhospitable. Most of these people

:14:28.:14:31.

will have walked, having experienced the conflict which is getting

:14:32.:14:35.

underway and before that having lived under IS the two years. -- the

:14:36.:14:41.

terrain is inhospitable. They will be in a state before we get to them.

:14:42.:14:46.

What happens when the inevitable military victory, however long it

:14:47.:14:47.

takes, succeeds? That is the There's been a lot of planning and

:14:48.:15:00.

training for the military campaign. My own best research suggests there

:15:01.:15:03.

has been little or no thinking about the political aftermath. If we lock

:15:04.:15:08.

at the aftermath of the invasion of 2003, aftermath of the surge in

:15:09.:15:14.

2007, I think we see military capacity, military power being

:15:15.:15:18.

deployed to deliver political solutions. Daesh, the Islamic State,

:15:19.:15:26.

are violent, barbaric group is simply a cause of a series of

:15:27.:15:32.

political failings and no-one has quite worked out how to reform the

:15:33.:15:36.

Iraqi system to integrate those sections of the population that are

:15:37.:15:40.

alienated and stop the Islamic State recruiting again. The Prime Minister

:15:41.:15:46.

of Iraq, a man who was resident in the UK for quite a few years,

:15:47.:15:49.

Manchester university, everybody seems to say he is something a

:15:50.:15:57.

reconciler. Is he doing his best? Is he a baddie or a goody? He's doing

:15:58.:16:02.

his best. Clearly, if you look at the opinion poll ratings, especially

:16:03.:16:08.

after replacing al-Maliki, he was recognised or greeted with optimism.

:16:09.:16:17.

However, he's incredibly weak in a fractured and internally divided

:16:18.:16:21.

cabinet. He has little or no power. He doesn't control the Shia

:16:22.:16:25.

militias. He doesn't control the Peshmerga. The Ministry of Defence

:16:26.:16:34.

has been sacked over a vote of no confidence in the Parliament. Do you

:16:35.:16:39.

agree with what we've heard about the state of the political set

:16:40.:16:46.

newspaper Iraq? 100% agree. The biggest problem with Abadi is he is

:16:47.:16:50.

facing many forces. The biggest are within his own camp, including the

:16:51.:16:54.

former Prime Minister. He's still there. He's still looking for a

:16:55.:17:08.

chance to bring Abadi down. Don't talk about sectarianism, there's an

:17:09.:17:12.

internal Shia struggle that he is facing. This is what I heard in

:17:13.:17:20.

Mark's piece. I was not aware - we all know Sunni-Shia. It's the

:17:21.:17:27.

multiple dimensions. Post-2003 system is so ill legitimate, so

:17:28.:17:33.

broken that it's not only Sunnis, it's Shias. There's a mass protest

:17:34.:17:39.

movement from the summer of 2015 onwards de crying almost universal

:17:40.:17:42.

corruption amongst the governing elite asking in a once oil-rich

:17:43.:17:47.

country why they can't get electricity at the height of the

:17:48.:17:51.

summer. We have a completely dysfunctional system. No-one has

:17:52.:17:54.

come up with a plan to fix it. What would be your plan to fix it? What

:17:55.:17:58.

is the political settlement that you're waiting for that would be

:17:59.:18:02.

different to the period after the surge or original invasion, when it

:18:03.:18:07.

did basically retreat into the most awful situation very quickly? I

:18:08.:18:12.

think the period after the surge might offer a good example of

:18:13.:18:16.

bringing the disenfranchised populations back to the bargaining

:18:17.:18:21.

table. We need to sustain that. We have a military victory that we're

:18:22.:18:24.

looking for. No-one is talking about the political victory. We have

:18:25.:18:28.

plans, many different plans, but no plan. When you bring them back to

:18:29.:18:32.

the table, what is this that you're going to get them to agree on? Is it

:18:33.:18:38.

an autonomous region for the Sunnis so they're like the Kurds and it's a

:18:39.:18:45.

more federal system? Again, it's very complicated. They have

:18:46.:18:50.

different ideas of what they want. This is complicated. We need to give

:18:51.:18:56.

them autonomy, to build systems of local governance in local provinces

:18:57.:19:02.

so they can start to deal with their own affairs. This is what the former

:19:03.:19:09.

Prime Minister did. They need to get them to discuss because

:19:10.:19:13.

communication is the key to this. We've learned enough tonight,

:19:14.:19:15.

probably enough for one evening. Thank you all very much indeed.

:19:16.:19:18.

Stephen Woolfe, the man who was among the favourites to take

:19:19.:19:23.

the leadership until that altercation in Strasbourg,

:19:24.:19:25.

There are no hopes as far as I'm concerned.

:19:26.:19:40.

I will be withdrawing my application to become leader of Ukip.

:19:41.:19:43.

I'm actually withdrawing myself from Ukip.

:19:44.:19:44.

I just don't think that Ukip, in this bible it has got,

:19:45.:19:48.

where you have elected politicians fighting

:19:49.:19:55.

each other, where there is just this visceral

:19:56.:19:59.

hatred, in some cases toward Nigel or anyone

:20:00.:20:02.

that is seen to be associated with him.

:20:03.:20:04.

Some people call me his puppet for standing, and things like that.

:20:05.:20:07.

Whilst that's happening, not only are they letting down the members,

:20:08.:20:10.

but they are actually letting down themselves.

:20:11.:20:11.

And I don't think at this stage Ukip is governable.

:20:12.:20:14.

I'm joined now by Raheem Kassam, a Ukip leadership candidate

:20:15.:20:16.

and the editor in chief of Breitbart London.

:20:17.:20:19.

What's happened to Stephen and his ambition to be leader? I think he's

:20:20.:20:25.

been through a really tough time. He went through a gruelling leadership

:20:26.:20:28.

campaign the last time. The tactics got nasty. I don't think we should

:20:29.:20:33.

see that inside our own party. We are a family. It shouldn't come to

:20:34.:20:36.

those things. Stephen was particularly, more than anyone, on

:20:37.:20:40.

the receiving end of the bullying, quite frankly. The fight, was he

:20:41.:20:44.

going to be found guilty of partaking in a fight or starting it?

:20:45.:20:49.

Because some said he was the one who said "Come outside." He said he

:20:50.:20:54.

wasn't doing that meaning let's have a fight, but to take the argument

:20:55.:20:57.

outside. Is that part of the thing here, that he was going to be

:20:58.:21:01.

blocked from the leadership? Stephen wasn't innocent in that fracas. I

:21:02.:21:07.

think he will admit, at least privately, that he bears some cull

:21:08.:21:11.

pability for what happened there. I'm not going to prejudge. But from

:21:12.:21:16.

what I've heard there's equal cull pability. He's saying he was hit.

:21:17.:21:21.

We're not there, we await other investigations. The leadership

:21:22.:21:26.

situation now. Would you support Nigel Farage saying look, I'm going

:21:27.:21:31.

to stay on or I'm going to stand in this leadership election? He seems

:21:32.:21:34.

to be the only one who can hold the party together. He's told me he's

:21:35.:21:39.

not going to. You'd like it if he did, though? Other than it would

:21:40.:21:45.

slightly thwart your ambitions. I'm young, I'm all right. It's up to

:21:46.:21:49.

him. I think there's a lot of appetite in the party for Nigel

:21:50.:21:52.

Farage. I've already said if I become the leader, he will be the

:21:53.:21:55.

honorary president of the party. I think it needs to retain him in some

:21:56.:22:02.

way. Ukip is Nigel. Nigel is Ukip. Some post that keeps him on the

:22:03.:22:06.

side. The other candidate, because there was a determination about the

:22:07.:22:13.

rules. Suzanne Evans, a frequent guest on this programme. She can

:22:14.:22:16.

stand this time. She was blocked last time. Would you welcome her?

:22:17.:22:21.

Absolutely. I've always said throughout the last, crazy ten days

:22:22.:22:25.

that we should have an open contest. You could serve under her. If she

:22:26.:22:29.

won you'd be delighted to serve under her? We know the party is

:22:30.:22:34.

riven by splits and divisions and you're in a different division to

:22:35.:22:39.

her. Could you unite under Suzanne Evans? It's a tough question. I'm

:22:40.:22:43.

not sure she would take the party in the direction I would want it to go.

:22:44.:22:46.

I would commit to this: Not attacking her if she won the

:22:47.:22:51.

leadership. You might even leave the party if she became leader? No, I

:22:52.:22:56.

wouldn't. People need to stick with this. People want Brexit. They don't

:22:57.:23:01.

want a one party state. They want real opposition to the Tories.

:23:02.:23:05.

Labour's not delivering it. Who are you supporting in the American

:23:06.:23:08.

election? I would probably support Donald Trump. Patrick O'Flynn,

:23:09.:23:14.

himself a candidate in the general election, he tweeted the choice

:23:15.:23:19.

ahead for Ukip, in a way it encollapse late everything, is

:23:20.:23:23.

whether to be the patriotic party of the common sense centre of of UK

:23:24.:23:32.

politics or go Trump, ult-right. Doesn't that just encapsulate the

:23:33.:23:36.

split in your party, between the Trump ones... I replied. I said it's

:23:37.:23:45.

a silly, false dichotomy. You think Trump is a common sense patriot? No,

:23:46.:23:51.

everybody in Ukip. Don't you think people think Trump is completely off

:23:52.:23:56.

the scale who would say if you're a Trump person, I'm not for you. Trump

:23:57.:24:02.

divides the world. Look, we're in Central London right now. It's

:24:03.:24:06.

disgusting to support Donald Trump in Central London. I'm not taking a

:24:07.:24:12.

view on it. I'm explaining this - If you say Trump is an inspiration to

:24:13.:24:17.

you... Now you're putting words in my mouth. It's not so much that he's

:24:18.:24:22.

an inspiration to me but I think Hillary Clinton would be bad for

:24:23.:24:26.

America. That's all it comes down to - who is better. Do you think

:24:27.:24:31.

there's a sort of fight gene in Ukip supporters, I don't just mean in the

:24:32.:24:40.

boxing match, but all seem to just pick arguments. On Twitter tonight

:24:41.:24:45.

arguing with Al Murray. What is it about you guys and fighting. A

:24:46.:24:51.

already Murray -- Al Murray is funny, he gets the Jock lar element

:24:52.:24:56.

of it. There's a lot of tongue-in-cheek behind some of this

:24:57.:24:58.

stuff. It's not all animosity all the time. There's a lot of

:24:59.:25:03.

playfulness here. Honestly. You're looking at me exceptically. I mean

:25:04.:25:09.

that. But I also think it has come a point where it's too much because of

:25:10.:25:13.

the crisis in Ukip, it doesn't know what it stands for. I want to make

:25:14.:25:19.

the party great again. I will do it, 100,000 members if I'm leader. Thank

:25:20.:25:21.

you very much for coming on. ( If there is one organisation that

:25:22.:25:24.

has been competing with Ukip in the struggle to settle

:25:25.:25:26.

on a leader, it's the independent It just cannot break free

:25:27.:25:29.

of distracting headlines about itself and its personnel

:25:30.:25:33.

problems, rather than The chair, Alexis Jay,

:25:34.:25:36.

today tried to clarify the inquiry's But the legacy of the last chair,

:25:37.:25:42.

Lowell Goddard, lives on in the form of argument and recrimination,

:25:43.:25:47.

involving the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, and her

:25:48.:25:50.

permanent secretary. What did they know

:25:51.:25:52.

about Lowell Goddard, Our political editor, Nick Watt,

:25:53.:25:54.

has been following the row. it is one of the most ambitious

:25:55.:26:08.

inquiries in British history, but it has been plagued by disputes at

:26:09.:26:13.

almost every stage. Today the three people who have the future of

:26:14.:26:16.

Britain's national child abuse inquiry in their hands moved to draw

:26:17.:26:21.

a line under this most troubled of investigations. But first, remember

:26:22.:26:26.

this... Order. Statement the Secretary of State for the home

:26:27.:26:35.

department. Secretary Theresa May. I would like to make a statement about

:26:36.:26:39.

the sexual abuse of children... Theresa May has enormous political

:26:40.:26:44.

capital invested in this inquiry, after she overcame some scepticism

:26:45.:26:48.

to set it up and then had to appoint three consecutive chairs after the

:26:49.:26:54.

first two stumbled. With questions raging about the resignation about

:26:55.:26:59.

her third chair, the Prime Minister is keen to focus on the main purpose

:27:00.:27:06.

of the inquiry. Dame Lowell Goddard resigned shortly after the Home

:27:07.:27:08.

Secretary and I talked about these issues. Let's remember, the point of

:27:09.:27:14.

the inquiry is that there are many people who have suffered from child

:27:15.:27:18.

abuse, who over the years, have felt that their voice was being ignored.

:27:19.:27:22.

Nobody was listening to them. They deserve justice. Until today, this

:27:23.:27:28.

was the Government's official explanation for the abrupt

:27:29.:27:33.

resignation of Goddard on August 4. Ultimately she found it too lonely.

:27:34.:27:36.

She was a long way from home. She decided to step down. That's all the

:27:37.:27:40.

information I have about why she decided to go. Last week, the Times

:27:41.:27:47.

reported that this man, Mark Sedwell, her most senior official

:27:48.:27:52.

was alerted six days earlier to criticism of her management skills

:27:53.:27:56.

and allegedly racist views. Today, the Home Secretary offered a fresh

:27:57.:28:01.

explanation. Dame Lowell had not spoke ton me about her reasons, so I

:28:02.:28:06.

relied on the letter she had sent to the committee. In her letter, she

:28:07.:28:11.

said she was lonely and felt that she could not deliver and that was

:28:12.:28:18.

why she stepped down. Dame Lowell strongly refutes the allegations

:28:19.:28:21.

about her. The only way we could understand properly why she resigned

:28:22.:28:31.

would be to hear from Dame Lowell. That original appearance before the

:28:32.:28:34.

Select Committee may still cause trouble for the Home Office.

:28:35.:28:38.

Newsnight understand that's there is unease amongst some MPs that Mark

:28:39.:28:47.

Sedewell sat in silence when Rudd made her statement last month. One

:28:48.:28:51.

observer said Sedwell, highly regarded by the Prime Minister,

:28:52.:28:55.

faces a decisive day when he appears before the committee tomorrow.

:28:56.:28:59.

As MPs debated the inquiry, along the river its new chair issued a

:29:00.:29:04.

rare public statement. This was short on specifics, but Professor

:29:05.:29:09.

Alexis Jay appeared to nod towards a scaling back of its work. If we were

:29:10.:29:16.

to pursue the traditional public hearing model that people associate

:29:17.:29:20.

with inquiries of this kind to the thousands and thousands of

:29:21.:29:24.

institutions in England and Wales, we would fail. There is no

:29:25.:29:28.

possibility that we can do that. However, we will apply it to some,

:29:29.:29:33.

that will not be the main ways in which we will take this inquiry

:29:34.:29:35.

forward. The Prime Minister, the Home

:29:36.:29:44.

Secretary and a new enquiry chair will be hoping some answers into a

:29:45.:29:48.

dark past may be provided by the end of the decade. But for now questions

:29:49.:29:52.

will continue to hang over this enquiry.

:29:53.:29:54.

As you heard, tomorrow the Home Secretary and her permanent

:29:55.:29:57.

secretary will appear before the Commons Home Affairs

:29:58.:29:59.

One of its members and a candidate for the chairmanship,

:30:00.:30:02.

Good evening. Do you think Amber Rudd unreasonably misled the

:30:03.:30:14.

committee when she met before and said, you know, Dame Lowell Goddard

:30:15.:30:21.

art resigned because she was isolated and wanted to go home? When

:30:22.:30:30.

the Home Secretary gave evidence to us on the committee she was

:30:31.:30:34.

referring to the reasons that were given to her by Dame Lowell Goddard

:30:35.:30:38.

art as to why she left. Whether at that point there was more, we don't

:30:39.:30:46.

know. There might have been legal reasons to speculate why she had

:30:47.:30:55.

gone. But Dame Goddard has gone now. There are a number of issues that go

:30:56.:30:59.

beyond the head of enquiry. One is the extent to which the controlling

:31:00.:31:03.

mind of the enquiry is impacted or influenced by the Home Office.

:31:04.:31:07.

Before 1971 the Home Office had a role in inspecting and approving the

:31:08.:31:12.

heads of children's homes were a lot of these awful things happened. If

:31:13.:31:15.

you have an enquiry that is dominated by Home Office personnel

:31:16.:31:23.

that's possible. I dated anybody has an issue with Herrerin abilities.

:31:24.:31:28.

She was in the social work profession for over three decades.

:31:29.:31:33.

-- with her abilities. We shouldn't sweep that under the carpet. That

:31:34.:31:38.

needs to be dealt with. Are you suggesting maybe it needs another

:31:39.:31:46.

chair? Alexis J isn't the right chair? I'm not saying that. --

:31:47.:31:54.

Alexis Jay. Some survivors will not trust a social worker. The question.

:31:55.:31:59.

I'm not raising that. The survivors are. -- that is a good question.

:32:00.:32:06.

They have got to be the primary concern. If they say that is an

:32:07.:32:09.

issue for then you have to deal with it, you cannot pretend it away. Some

:32:10.:32:14.

hope we can just get on with this, we cannot keep changing the head.

:32:15.:32:17.

Absolutely. I think people chair that view. The professor will be

:32:18.:32:26.

appearing tomorrow in front of the committee. She wants this to be done

:32:27.:32:31.

by 2020. One of the controversy is coming out the Department of Dame

:32:32.:32:37.

Goddard is that you should forget about the past and focus on the

:32:38.:32:41.

future. I would say that would be wholly unacceptable to my

:32:42.:32:44.

constituents. What happened to them may have been in the past but they

:32:45.:32:47.

live with it every day and will continue to do so in the future. One

:32:48.:32:54.

of the things Dame Goddard suggested was that there was under sourcing of

:32:55.:33:00.

the enquiry. But they refounded the Home Office. This is why it would be

:33:01.:33:19.

good to have judge Goddard B there. -- Goddard be there. Were they

:33:20.:33:29.

sitting on this? I don't know. That will be a line of enquiry. Thanks

:33:30.:33:33.

very much. At one point, we were

:33:34.:33:34.

expecting a decision It's probably next week now,

:33:35.:33:36.

but hey, we've been waiting 48 years so another few days is neither

:33:37.:33:41.

here nor there. But Nick Watt is back with me

:33:42.:33:43.

with news on how the Government might push Heathrow,

:33:44.:33:47.

if it is selected as the favoured What are they thinking? The Cabinet

:33:48.:33:56.

will discuss tomorrow whether or where to build a new runway in the

:33:57.:34:01.

south-east. We know that the Cabinet subcommittee will meet next week,

:34:02.:34:04.

will make a decision, announced it next week. The government is

:34:05.:34:09.

planning to hold a Commons vote within a week of that announcement.

:34:10.:34:13.

They are obliged to hold a formal vote. It is a national strategy

:34:14.:34:20.

policy statement. Within a few months. But they want to go much

:34:21.:34:23.

earlier to stop opponents building up steam. If they were to go to

:34:24.:34:28.

Heathrow, Zac Goldsmith could have his by-election but they would hope

:34:29.:34:31.

they would have the numbers in parliament to have parliament

:34:32.:34:35.

approve it by then. There is speculation they might overheat and

:34:36.:34:39.

Gatwick. I am told they will go for one of the three options. -- there

:34:40.:34:44.

is speculation they might have one at Heathrow and Gatwick. Tell us

:34:45.:34:52.

which one. You must know. If you are going to one option, it looks like

:34:53.:34:55.

you are following the airports commission. If you are following

:34:56.:34:59.

Howard Davies you are going for a third runway at Heathrow. But

:35:00.:35:03.

ministers are saying no decision has been made yet. The Prime Minister

:35:04.:35:06.

wants to hear from the Cabinet. They will follow the information. Those

:35:07.:35:11.

members on the subcommittee have a pile of papers, they need to do

:35:12.:35:14.

their homework, then they will publish it.

:35:15.:35:16.

Well, airports and aeroplanes are often seen as one of the main

:35:17.:35:19.

culprits of toxic emissions by those who seek to improve

:35:20.:35:22.

But those of us who bought diesel cars, thinking that would help,

:35:23.:35:26.

have known for a while now that we are actually poisoning our fellow

:35:27.:35:31.

citizens with toxic emissions that are far worse than we'd

:35:32.:35:33.

down or use Brexit as a chance to dump the EU-mandated levels

:35:34.:35:51.

Our technology editor, David Grossman, has been looking

:35:52.:35:54.

at the UK's commitment - or lack thereof - to cleaner air.

:35:55.:35:59.

The cycle path up the side of the A3 is not the prettiest

:36:00.:36:07.

but it is pretty fast, and at least I am separated

:36:08.:36:09.

What I'm not separated from, of course, are the fumes.

:36:10.:36:18.

This bike has been fitted with an air quality monitor.

:36:19.:36:26.

The main thing it's measuring is nitrogen dioxide.

:36:27.:36:29.

What that does to the human body can be pretty nasty.

:36:30.:36:34.

In simple terms that's going to increase your susceptibility

:36:35.:36:36.

It's going to increase your risk of having, say,

:36:37.:36:43.

It's going to make you more susceptible

:36:44.:36:46.

If you've got asthma or sensitive lungs it might make you more prone

:36:47.:36:55.

A strict EU limit came into force in 2010.

:36:56.:37:01.

An annual mean of 40 micrograms per cubic metre of air.

:37:02.:37:04.

However, the government won't enforce it until 2024

:37:05.:37:06.

for the UK as a whole, and even later, 2025, for London.

:37:07.:37:11.

Frankly it's enough to make you want to hold your breath

:37:12.:37:17.

And here is the 40 micrograms annual mean limit.

:37:18.:37:28.

My journey up the A3 was swimming in nitrogen dioxide.

:37:29.:37:31.

But the biggest spike of the day was appropriately enough

:37:32.:37:33.

Tomorrow the environmental lawyers Client Earth are continuing their

:37:34.:37:37.

We need to go back to court now with the government because this

:37:38.:37:47.

government in the 35 years that I've been doing environmental work

:37:48.:37:50.

is the most reluctant to follow the law when it comes to important

:37:51.:37:53.

We have 40,000 people a year dying early in the UK

:37:54.:37:56.

And the government has done in its heels and said we're just not

:37:57.:38:01.

going to comply anywhere near the time we are supposed to.

:38:02.:38:04.

They were supposed to comply in 2010.

:38:05.:38:06.

They are now saying in London it will be 2025.

:38:07.:38:08.

But their own plan shows it won't be anywhere near 2025.

:38:09.:38:16.

So why has the UK struggled to meet air quality laws that were supposed

:38:17.:38:22.

Up until May Stephen Heidari-Robinson was David Cameron's

:38:23.:38:26.

adviser on energy and the environment.

:38:27.:38:28.

He says one reason is we do too much computer modelling and not

:38:29.:38:31.

As you've done today, going around and actually measuring

:38:32.:38:38.

things, it's probably the right way forward.

:38:39.:38:42.

I think the second is you sort of look at these numbers

:38:43.:38:45.

and you struggle to see why they are not going down.

:38:46.:38:48.

And that's a large proportion of what happened with the VW scandal.

:38:49.:38:51.

It turns out that actually emissions from diesel vehicles are six times

:38:52.:38:54.

This problem is largely about diesel vehicles.

:38:55.:39:00.

Really we need to address that issue if we want to solve

:39:01.:39:03.

But given the scale of solving that problem, and meeting

:39:04.:39:12.

those EU legal limits, there is some concern

:39:13.:39:15.

that the government might try to use Brexit to abandon them or perhaps

:39:16.:39:18.

Last month the Commons environment audit select committee couldn't get

:39:19.:39:21.

Are you giving a commitment that standards will be higher,

:39:22.:39:26.

or at least at the level of the European standards?

:39:27.:39:28.

I'm saying to you what I've said to you previously,

:39:29.:39:33.

that we want better air quality we have today.

:39:34.:39:39.

-- that we want better air quality than we have today.

:39:40.:39:42.

And that's what we'll be working, to that outcome.

:39:43.:39:45.

Today we have enforceable legal standards.

:39:46.:39:47.

I'm just wondering if you were going to keep them, that's all,

:39:48.:39:50.

Will the government which is so reluctant to comply

:39:51.:40:06.

with the law try to move away in the Brexit process?

:40:07.:40:09.

And so will thousands of our citizens.

:40:10.:40:16.

It would actually give us the best standards in the world.

:40:17.:40:20.

In the meantime air pollution continues to damage thousands

:40:21.:40:24.

As for me I think I'll take the long route through the park from now on.

:40:25.:40:43.

in The Times on a story that David Cameron wasted ?1 billion on the

:40:44.:41:00.

Troubled Families Programme. They suppressed the report. They wasted

:41:01.:41:04.

money on that particular scheme. That's almost it for tonight,

:41:05.:41:08.

but if you're not fortunate enough to have a baby boomer index linked

:41:09.:41:11.

final salary pension, you probably didn't attend

:41:12.:41:13.

the Desert Trip concert in California this weekend,

:41:14.:41:15.

unkindly dubbed Oldstock The average age of the

:41:16.:41:17.

headline acts was 72, The cheapest seat was $199,

:41:18.:41:20.

the most expensive $3,000. Anyway, for everyone else,

:41:21.:41:27.

here it is in 40 seconds. # People try to put us down

:41:28.:41:46.

# Talking about my generation #. # Been around for many a long year

:41:47.:41:55.

#. # I hope I die before I get old #.

:41:56.:42:03.

# All we are saying... #. # We are just two young souls

:42:04.:42:08.

swimming in a fishbowl # Year after year #.

:42:09.:42:13.

If you have managed to avoid the showers over the past few days it

:42:14.:42:18.

has felt good in the sunshine. A chillier feel thanks to a cold front

:42:19.:42:23.

which will sweep down the country in the next few hours. Away from that,

:42:24.:42:27.

sunshine, but some showers tomorrow in northern parts of the UK,

:42:28.:42:33.

Northern Ireland, and Scotland. Temperature is

:42:34.:42:34.

With Evan Davis. Mark Urban analyses the battle for Mosul. Plus the child abuse inquiry, the decision on Heathrow, air pollution, and is UKIP 'ungovernable'?


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