Browse content similar to 15/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
For the last year now - the story has been | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
Have the Dutch just decided to stand in the way? | :00:00. | :00:12. | |
in but the exit polls say the current Prime Minister | :00:13. | :00:16. | |
Gabriel Gatehouse is in the Hague for us. | :00:17. | :00:26. | |
No win for Geert Wilders but no doubt either he has shifted the | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
terms of the political debate here in the Netherlands. | :00:31. | :00:32. | |
Also tonight, the National Insurance rise is shoved firmly | :00:33. | :00:34. | |
The Chancellor has back tracked on last week's big budget measure. | :00:35. | :00:38. | |
Is it time to announce taxes - and budgets - | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
Is it just the fashion or something more going on? | :00:41. | :00:48. | |
The number of over 65s getting married is way up. | :00:49. | :00:50. | |
We talked about it a lot and I think I had always said I don't want this | :00:51. | :00:59. | |
ever to be a practical decision, it's got to be an emotional | :01:00. | :01:00. | |
decision. We'll ask this agony aunt | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
if it is to be recommended. The Dutch people have | :01:03. | :01:12. | |
spoken and the answer is. Well, it's easier to say | :01:13. | :01:25. | |
what the answer is not. Not good for the populist anti-EU | :01:26. | :01:27. | |
anti immigrant Geert Wilders. He's up a little on last time, | :01:28. | :01:31. | |
but well below his hopes. If you believe the exit polls, | :01:32. | :01:33. | |
the Labour party there is facing wipe out, losing three quarters | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
of its seats. Some of those, incidentally, to the | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
green left. Not great for traditional parties | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
generally - they are down. But the centre right party that | :01:47. | :01:48. | |
did lead, still leads. So the Prime Minister Mark Rutte | :01:49. | :01:52. | |
will have the first chance to build Let's talk to Gabriel Gatehouse - | :01:53. | :01:55. | |
you might have seen his reports on the Dutch campaign | :01:56. | :01:59. | |
trail, he's in the Hague. Give us your initial reaction to | :02:00. | :02:07. | |
what we are hearing tonight? Well you cannot put any other spin on | :02:08. | :02:12. | |
this other than it must be very disappointing for Geert Wilders. If | :02:13. | :02:15. | |
you believe the polls and who does that these days, but if you had you | :02:16. | :02:19. | |
might have expected him to have done twice as well as it looks like he | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
has. It looks like he has got about 12 and a half percent of the vote | :02:24. | :02:28. | |
giving him 19 seats, up four on before. The Prime Minister looks | :02:29. | :02:34. | |
like he's getting 31, that is down ten but enough for him to have a | :02:35. | :02:38. | |
first stab at forming a coalition. He will need at least three other | :02:39. | :02:41. | |
parties to come in with him to do that and he has already said he will | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
not work with Geert Wilders. The other big headline of the night as | :02:46. | :02:51. | |
you mentioned is the wipe-out of the traditional Labour Party, losing | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
three quarters of their seats, worst result in their history. Some of the | :02:56. | :03:01. | |
smaller parties have done quite well by contrast, Democrats 66, the sort | :03:02. | :03:09. | |
of Lib Dems, are up and so quite a diffuse landscape here. A lot of | :03:10. | :03:15. | |
divisions, where does this leave the Netherlands for the next few years? | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
There are two ways of looking at it, the Prime Minister told Newsnight | :03:22. | :03:23. | |
last night that the Netherlands would not be the next domino to fall | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
to populism and in one sense it hasn't. In the other sense the Prime | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
Minister fought this campaign squarely on Geert Wilders Australia | :03:33. | :03:40. | |
ground, telling Dutch people of immigrant backgrounds that unless | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
they behaved normally they could get lost. His handling of the Turkey | :03:44. | :03:49. | |
crisis, much of that in part to do with the perception that he was seen | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
as weak on Dutch identity and immigration and Geert Wilders was | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
seen as strong. I think overall we can see a definite shift in Dutch | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
politics to the right. Thank you very much Gabriel. | :04:02. | :04:03. | |
Well, the Dutch election had really been watched | :04:04. | :04:05. | |
as the first stop this year, in the grand tour of national | :04:06. | :04:08. | |
elections that are pitching traditional politics | :04:09. | :04:10. | |
against less conventional challengers. | :04:11. | :04:17. | |
Populist politics has dominated the headlines for the last year. It had | :04:18. | :04:24. | |
a good run. But 2017 was always seen as the year that would determine its | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
long-term fate. So where does populism go now? You might think | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
there are three broad scenarios. Number one populism has its brief | :04:36. | :04:38. | |
moment and then just fades into the background. After all it has come | :04:39. | :04:46. | |
and gone before. In France in the 60s huge waves were made, the | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
shopkeeper fed up at his sometimes seen as far right, he supported the | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
Socialists in later years. His movement fizzled out. In the 2000 | :04:57. | :05:02. | |
and anti-globalisation movement disrupted World Trade Organisation | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
business. Its hero stood in the French presidential election of 2007 | :05:08. | :05:14. | |
but only got 1% of the vote. The second scenario is that the populist | :05:15. | :05:17. | |
outsiders become a permanent fixture. Either in government as in | :05:18. | :05:21. | |
the case of President Trump or as the official opposition. Certainly | :05:22. | :05:27. | |
populism is seen as part of the furniture in countries like Russia | :05:28. | :05:30. | |
and Turkey where it dominates government. But what about in the | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
West? Are such parties able to displace the centre left with an | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
appeal to blue-collar voters? Some sign of that in the Netherlands. | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
There is a third scenario, the populist parties disappear but their | :05:44. | :05:50. | |
influence lives on. Brexit means Brexit and we are going to make a | :05:51. | :05:54. | |
success of it. One theory about Theresa May is that she is trying to | :05:55. | :05:59. | |
co-opt just enough of the populist programme to fend off the populist | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
parties. In the Netherlands it may be that Mark Rutte has kept the | :06:05. | :06:06. | |
populists at bay by doing just that. Marietje Schaake is a Dutch MEP | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
for the Democrats 66 Party. They are the only "progressive | :06:12. | :06:14. | |
party", in her words, to finish in the top four, | :06:15. | :06:16. | |
according to those exit polls. Good evening to you, it's a | :06:17. | :06:28. | |
complicated picture tonight, who do you see as the winners and who do | :06:29. | :06:35. | |
you see as the losers? Well it is complicated but there is also a lot | :06:36. | :06:38. | |
of reason to celebrate. I think we see a clear again for those parties | :06:39. | :06:42. | |
like my own who have had an unequivocal progressive agenda, to | :06:43. | :06:48. | |
look beyond our borders, the European cooperation and really | :06:49. | :06:51. | |
stand firmly against the Nationalists who certainly did not | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
do as well as they may have hoped or others may have feared. But one | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
reason is potentially the Nationalists did not do as well as | :07:01. | :07:03. | |
they had hoped is that Mark Rutte made a pitch to the people and said | :07:04. | :07:06. | |
I can give you that if that is what you want and it seems to have | :07:07. | :07:09. | |
stabilised his position to some large degree. Well we have seen the | :07:10. | :07:17. | |
Prime Minister but also the Christian Democrats increasingly in | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
the days leading up to the election moving to the right and seeing more | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
and more what would be extreme things a couple of years ago towards | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
immigrants, more Nationalists bowls like singing the national anthem | :07:30. | :07:34. | |
standing up which was a proposal from the Christian Democrats. That | :07:35. | :07:38. | |
is not the course we have chosen as the Democrats 66 and I am encouraged | :07:39. | :07:45. | |
to see there is a lot of support for this other narrative, international | :07:46. | :07:50. | |
media have been looking at Geert Wilders but there is a strong other | :07:51. | :07:54. | |
story to be told tonight. The progressive parties with an | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
open-minded open economy open society agenda have won tonight. | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
That is interesting because what you are seeing is the centre-left | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
squeezed out, they are squeezed out between these two big forces of if | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
you like populist right-wing and progressive liberalism as you would | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
describe it and the two sides of Dutch society are now polarising | :08:17. | :08:23. | |
around two different positions. Indeed there is polarisation between | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
conservative and progressive I would say. There is a couple of parties on | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
each side and I think the story of the Labour Party is more one of a | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
four year-long coalition with the party they said they would never | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
govern with in the previous campaign. I think that has been a | :08:41. | :08:43. | |
big disappointment for their constituents. Marietje Schaake, | :08:44. | :08:46. | |
thank you for your time. Catherine De Vries is a Professor | :08:47. | :08:48. | |
of Politics at University of Essex. But works here and studies the whole | :08:49. | :08:59. | |
of European politics. It's a fascinating picture because first | :09:00. | :09:01. | |
thing is the traditional parties have not done very well and the | :09:02. | :09:05. | |
outside parties have done quite well. I think that is a phenomenon | :09:06. | :09:10. | |
we are seeing in many West European or European political systems | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
overall that actually this is maybe not even the story about the | :09:14. | :09:17. | |
strength of populists but the weakness of mainstream politics. But | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
not a good night for Geert Wilders, would you say this is one of those | :09:22. | :09:26. | |
where it stops the populist bandwagon in its tracks? You have to | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
be careful making those kind of sweeping arguments but I think Geert | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
Wilders was expecting more from tonight. I think the people who | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
follow Dutch politics closely, it was clear this election campaign he | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
has not been able to cater towards this anti-immigrant, anti-EU feeling | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
as successful as he has in the past. And now he has an election result | :09:49. | :09:51. | |
which is very similar to some of those he has had in previous years. | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
I think this is, he put the bar very high for himself and did not meet | :09:57. | :10:02. | |
it. Where does that kind of populism go? You could think it is a fad, you | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
could think it is a fixture, which would you think? Not to be too | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
academic but we think there are three ways to deal with populists, | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
one is to ignore, that seems to have not been a very successful strategy | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
in Western Europe for a long time. The second is to co-opt and that is | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
something Marietje Schaake was just talking about, taking firm positions | :10:27. | :10:34. | |
in the Turkish row we saw and anti-immigrant. I think some people | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
have suggested that has helped Mark Rutte in the election campaign. The | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
third is to choose an attacking position. Take them on. Take them on | :10:46. | :10:51. | |
and that is something the green left has done much more successfully than | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
Democrats 66. A millennial 31-year-old party leader has done | :10:56. | :11:00. | |
exceptionally well and gained 12 seats. It does set an interesting | :11:01. | :11:06. | |
tone for the French and German elections, that a more positive, | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
pro-Europe, pro-immigration stamps could perhaps help weather the | :11:10. | :11:17. | |
populist rise. A big story in Europe and the same in France, the | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
centre-left, the mainstream left, it's not going to make the top three | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
in France, it's been terribly badly damaged here, what is going on? One | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
interesting element is we think of social Democratic party, the Labour | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
Party label to be toxic, the story of the last year is social Democrats | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
not doing well. But one politician putting that into perspective is | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
Martin Shilts doing very well in Germany. Thank you very much | :11:47. | :11:53. | |
Catherine De Vries. Well, Philip Hammond's | :11:54. | :11:56. | |
budget didn't last a week. He backtracked on his increase | :11:57. | :11:58. | |
in National Insurance for the self-employed today, | :11:59. | :12:00. | |
under pressure from colleagues. Some are saying the Brexiteers | :12:01. | :12:02. | |
were out to get him What is your take on what happened | :12:03. | :12:16. | |
today? It was each immolating U-turn from the canceller -- it was a | :12:17. | :12:22. | |
humiliating U-turn for the Chancellor. Philip Hammond believes | :12:23. | :12:31. | |
he and the Prime Minister are equally culpable. In the first place | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
he originally wanted a budget that was not going to spend any more or | :12:35. | :12:38. | |
raise any more and he buckled on both. The second thing is number ten | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
had full notice of this rise in national insurance for the | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
self-employed. But I'm hearing the sound of recriminations from within | :12:47. | :12:50. | |
the Treasury, finger-pointing at officials and ministers from the | :12:51. | :12:53. | |
George Osborne era who said the manifesto was dealt with in | :12:54. | :12:56. | |
legislation after the election where they said they would not be raising | :12:57. | :13:01. | |
national insurance for the employed. It was silent on the self-employed | :13:02. | :13:06. | |
hence the problem. But this budget U-turn comes at a moment when the | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
challenges are really mounting for this government. So here is my film | :13:11. | :13:11. | |
looking at those. How easy life can seem in the cocoon | :13:12. | :13:28. | |
of a honeymoon. Goodwill carried along by the gentle sea breeze and | :13:29. | :13:35. | |
not a dark cloud on the horizon. And then there is the return home to | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
reality and a whole host of obstacles. In one of the fastest | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
U-turns in recent budget history Philip Hammond today announced he | :13:45. | :13:49. | |
was abandoning a rise in national insurance contributions for the | :13:50. | :13:52. | |
self-employed. It's a huge clock up which comes from a number of things, | :13:53. | :13:57. | |
firstly it comes from what seems to be a failure to even look at the | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
Conservative manifesto of not even two years ago. I think that is | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
explained not by casualness our lack of work, I think what explains that | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
is that Theresa May and her team do not think of the 2015 manifesto as | :14:11. | :14:21. | |
the manifesto. Just a few short weeks ago the path ahead seemed | :14:22. | :14:23. | |
clear for Theresa May after the Tories defeated Labour in the | :14:24. | :14:25. | |
Copeland by-election. Now her government is heading obstacles. | :14:26. | :14:27. | |
Sometimes down to their own mistakes and sometimes down to the historic | :14:28. | :14:31. | |
challenge of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU and what that means | :14:32. | :14:33. | |
for all parts of the UK. The man charged with running Brexit | :14:34. | :14:48. | |
is sometimes charged with well, not quite doing his homework and today | :14:49. | :14:53. | |
David Davis admitted that he had not carried out a study into the | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
economic impact of a cliff edge Brexit. If you mean in my time, no. | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
I was shocked that he was so complacent that he was prescribing | :15:03. | :15:07. | |
that we should have no deal rather than a bad deal, the government | :15:08. | :15:11. | |
haven't done any work on the economy, people's jobs, investments, | :15:12. | :15:17. | |
what livelihoods would be. I think it is incredibly irresponsible. One | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
leading Brexiteer thought David Davies had been perfectly sensible. | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
If for some reason with new government is coming through in the | :15:27. | :15:29. | |
major EU countries there is a view that they want to be punitive and is | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
not a relationship I want to have with a trade environment. And rather | :15:35. | :15:44. | |
work with them in the WTO framework which clear and everyone signs up | :15:45. | :15:46. | |
to. And there's always another obstacle just around the corner. The | :15:47. | :15:49. | |
SNP are using Brexit to demand a second independence referendum. One | :15:50. | :15:53. | |
Unionist says the Prime Minister isn't helping the UK case. In | :15:54. | :15:59. | |
Westminster they are comparing the present Prime Minister with Margaret | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
Thatcher is a favourable comparison. In Scotland when they compare the | :16:04. | :16:06. | |
present Prime Minister with Margaret Hodge it is the opposite because of | :16:07. | :16:09. | |
course Margaret Thatcher was universally disliked in Scotland. | :16:10. | :16:13. | |
Anyone who resembles Margaret Thatcher, even to the smallest | :16:14. | :16:18. | |
extent, is not going to go down well with the majority of people in | :16:19. | :16:23. | |
Scotland. One veteran of Gordon Brown's Downing Street believes | :16:24. | :16:26. | |
Theresa May is now discovering the true challenge of being a Prime | :16:27. | :16:30. | |
Minister. I think the honeymoon is coming to an end | :16:31. | :17:09. | |
because the easy part of a Brexit dominated government for her was | :17:10. | :17:13. | |
always going to be the run-up to the triggering of Article 50 moment. The | :17:14. | :17:15. | |
minute Article 50 is triggered this when the hard work begins, making | :17:16. | :17:18. | |
decisions about who you will annoy, who you will favour, which business | :17:19. | :17:20. | |
you will say yes to, or no to, whether you are hard rig ht soft | :17:21. | :17:23. | |
left, whether the Tory party will be more annoyed by your choices. That | :17:24. | :17:26. | |
will be her problem from now and you'd better get used to it because | :17:27. | :17:29. | |
this is the territory she will be in for a long time. Her unusually | :17:30. | :17:31. | |
lengthy honeymoon will soon be a distant memory for Theresa must hope | :17:32. | :17:34. | |
that her capacity for hard work will ensure that she faces a smooth road | :17:35. | :17:36. | |
ahead. Nick Watt will be back with us in a moment she must hope that | :17:37. | :17:39. | |
her capacity for hard work will ensure that she faces a smooth road | :17:40. | :17:42. | |
ahead. Nick Watt will be back with us in a moment. | :17:43. | :17:43. | |
Let's talk a bit more about tax and the national | :17:44. | :17:45. | |
One thing that almost every tax expert thinks, | :17:46. | :17:48. | |
is that Phillip Hammond was on to something, | :17:49. | :17:50. | |
in arguing that we need to sort out the lower tax | :17:51. | :17:53. | |
Firstly, it loses the government revenue, it's not fair that rich | :17:54. | :17:56. | |
self-employed people pay less tax than poorer workers. | :17:57. | :17:58. | |
And it encourages employers to sack workers, and take them | :17:59. | :18:01. | |
So how come something seen as sensible has been mishandled | :18:02. | :18:04. | |
Maybe we shouldn't have a Budget where things are sprung | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
I'm joined by Conservative MP David Morris, who's the prime | :18:09. | :18:11. | |
minister's 'Ambassador for the Self-Employed'. | :18:12. | :18:12. | |
And Jill Rutter from the Institute for Government, who's worked on tax | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
policy in the Treasury and Number 10. | :18:17. | :18:18. | |
Djourou should we just get rid of the budget, have a debate before | :18:19. | :18:21. | |
anything and then not this problem. We should have fewer budgets and | :18:22. | :18:24. | |
Philip Hammond has agreed to that by abolishing the spring budget, this | :18:25. | :18:27. | |
one will be his last, he might be relieved about that. And he did less | :18:28. | :18:30. | |
in this one, a good move. Still that ancient process where the budget is | :18:31. | :18:32. | |
shrouded in secrecy and there's very little consultation on the measures, | :18:33. | :18:36. | |
chancellors have rabbits that they announce Djourou, should we just get | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
rid of the budget, have the debate before anything and then not this | :18:40. | :18:41. | |
problem. We should have fewer budgets and Philip Hammond has | :18:42. | :18:43. | |
agreed to that by abolishing the spring budget, this one will be his | :18:44. | :18:46. | |
last, he might be relieved about that. And he did less in this one, a | :18:47. | :18:49. | |
good move. Still that ancient process where the budget is shrouded | :18:50. | :18:51. | |
in secrecy and there's very little consultation on the measures, | :18:52. | :18:53. | |
chancellors have rabbits that explosions happen sooner and sooner | :18:54. | :18:55. | |
so actually lasting a week was better than George Osborne's last | :18:56. | :18:57. | |
spring budget when he was reversing by question Time, the day after they | :18:58. | :18:59. | |
should ask themselves, chancellors, whether they are well served by | :19:00. | :19:02. | |
this. So on taxi would say, here is a direction this, we need to work | :19:03. | :19:08. | |
out a facing? Philip Hammond trailed in the Autumn Statement that he was | :19:09. | :19:16. | |
going to consult on to look at the issue. So they laid the groundwork | :19:17. | :19:23. | |
for doing a serious review exposing the evidence base, building | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
consensus and laying the groundwork for some long-term reforms. Instead | :19:28. | :19:30. | |
they decided the rabbit had to be let out of the hatch early in the | :19:31. | :19:34. | |
budget, whether at the last minute to pay for social care, who knows. | :19:35. | :19:39. | |
What they have done is set back the cause for serious reform for the | :19:40. | :19:48. | |
rest of this before that the Prime Minister had said at this review by | :19:49. | :19:51. | |
Matthew Taylor's bringing in Tony Blair's former head of policy to | :19:52. | :19:53. | |
look at the issue. So they laid the groundwork for doing a serious | :19:54. | :19:55. | |
review exposing the evidence base, building consensus and laying the | :19:56. | :19:57. | |
groundwork for some long-term reforms. Instead they decided the | :19:58. | :20:00. | |
rabbit had to be let out of the hatch early in the budget, whether | :20:01. | :20:03. | |
at the last minute to pay for social care, who knows. What they have done | :20:04. | :20:05. | |
is set back the cause for serious reform for the rest of this | :20:06. | :20:08. | |
Parliament. It's off the cards David, you wanted this. Before this | :20:09. | :20:10. | |
was a good idea. When I was Minister for the self-employed, I had been an | :20:11. | :20:13. | |
MP for 20 years and one problem for the self-employed is how they sort | :20:14. | :20:16. | |
out their pensions. I'm still having problems, I was at college in 1983, | :20:17. | :20:19. | |
this is how complicated it is. What we saw today was a better deal than | :20:20. | :20:22. | |
what we saw yesterday because it is actually... You supported the budget | :20:23. | :20:24. | |
and know you support the U-turn? Minister for the self-employed, I | :20:25. | :20:27. | |
had been an MP for 20 years and one problem for the self-employed is how | :20:28. | :20:29. | |
they sort out their pensions. I'm still having problems, I was at | :20:30. | :20:31. | |
college in 1983, this is how complicated it is. What we saw today | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
was a better deal than what we saw yesterday because it is actually... | :20:35. | :20:37. | |
You supported the budget and now you support the I thought it was a good | :20:38. | :20:40. | |
deal because we are trying to harmonise the self-employed. I | :20:41. | :20:42. | |
floated this idea two years ago saying let's get rid of class toyou | :20:43. | :20:45. | |
put money into it and get nothing from it's complicated that it is | :20:46. | :20:47. | |
unfair for Rich self-employed people to pay less tax than poorer workers? | :20:48. | :20:49. | |
That is what we've got now. Everything is on class four. | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
Yesterday, you agree that it is unfair for rich self-employed people | :20:53. | :20:55. | |
to pay less tax than poorer workers? That is what we've got now. | :20:56. | :20:57. | |
Everything is on class four. The profits of the 40,000 that on. Mayo | :20:58. | :21:01. | |
suggest that the real problem was the manifesto commitment. We can | :21:02. | :21:04. | |
blame the budget process but it was the manifesto high on. Mayo suggest | :21:05. | :21:08. | |
that the real problem was the manifesto commitment. We can blame | :21:09. | :21:15. | |
the budget process but it was the manifesto they had made such a | :21:16. | :21:17. | |
radical and firm commitment in the manifesto to doing nothing. Everyone | :21:18. | :21:21. | |
who the time that the only people they were binding with themselves so | :21:22. | :21:26. | |
to take the law to do that seemed said at the time that the only | :21:27. | :21:28. | |
people they were binding with themselves so to take the law to do | :21:29. | :21:35. | |
that seemed strange the grid. You had no announcement planned for the | :21:36. | :21:41. | |
day, what shall we do, say they will be attacks, that's easy, we won't do | :21:42. | :21:44. | |
that anyway. Which is the cavalier way we go about it. -- they will be | :21:45. | :21:51. | |
taxed. This was talked about when you before the election. What got | :21:52. | :21:57. | |
them was the pledge not to touch national insurance ever! In the | :21:58. | :22:03. | |
budget of 2015, Sajid Javid has announced this although it's gone | :22:04. | :22:07. | |
under the radar, now we've actually got a better deal for the | :22:08. | :22:09. | |
self-employed. They are now paying the same as everyone, getting a tax | :22:10. | :22:16. | |
break because they are not paying ?145 in the class tos. The good news | :22:17. | :22:23. | |
was let out early, the abolition of class two. The bad news about class | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
four came later. You'd had the good news already, it's all bad news. We | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
need to do much more strategic approach, thinking in advance what | :22:34. | :22:37. | |
you wanted to do over the life of a parliament. Theresa May said | :22:38. | :22:40. | |
something interesting in the two and a half hours she ran for the | :22:41. | :22:44. | |
leadership before Andrea Leadsom withdrew. She said, we need to have | :22:45. | :22:50. | |
a serious conversation about how we pay for the state. And because she | :22:51. | :22:54. | |
became Prime Minister within two and a half days we lost that | :22:55. | :22:59. | |
conversation. Do you want that conversation David? We are having it | :23:00. | :23:05. | |
already. We did have the consultation before... Your party | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
keeps making rash promises like we won't touch any taxes and in | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
government it has to constrain itself! If you think about what | :23:16. | :23:18. | |
happened in the general election that's just gone we did talk about | :23:19. | :23:29. | |
abolishing Class 2s. And people in classical can get maternity pay | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
which was one of my ideas. Stay with us, if you would. You both. | :23:35. | :23:39. | |
Nick Watt is still with us - there's been more movement | :23:40. | :23:41. | |
Allegations hurting the Conservatives. 12 police forces have | :23:42. | :23:52. | |
asked charges to be considered concerning expenses. This relates to | :23:53. | :23:58. | |
the long running saga exposed by Channel 4 News that the Tories | :23:59. | :24:03. | |
inappropriately used facilities funded at a national level to | :24:04. | :24:06. | |
campaign locally. The biggest examples being those bus tours | :24:07. | :24:12. | |
around marginal constituencies. Car McCartney, one Tory MP being | :24:13. | :24:16. | |
investigated wrote to the party chairman, furious. I've learned this | :24:17. | :24:22. | |
evening that Tory MPs are giving an ultimatum to the Tory chairman, is a | :24:23. | :24:25. | |
Patrick McLoughlin, saying sort this out by the end of the week. Write to | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
the electoral commission. Say it is your fault, pay a fine of ?20,000 | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
and if you don't will go on strike. I'm not quite sure what going on | :24:36. | :24:42. | |
strike will mean. David, you have some history of this because the | :24:43. | :24:45. | |
battle bus visited your seed when you were fighting the election. You | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
were investigated -- your seat. It was a carbon copy, the Lancashire | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
Police interviewed me and saw fit to take it no further. They haven't | :24:57. | :25:02. | |
gone to this CBS? There were reports on BBC Two two weeks ago that there | :25:03. | :25:08. | |
is nothing further to be answered. Did the party let you down? Did they | :25:09. | :25:12. | |
say that the battle bus was a national expense and you will find? | :25:13. | :25:18. | |
Yes, we all got the same e-mail from Mark Clark at the time, he was | :25:19. | :25:22. | |
behind the battle bus project and he said it was a national spend. You | :25:23. | :25:29. | |
all had a sincere belief, that's the claim, essentially, that you were | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
cleared for this spending. I honestly believe not one member of | :25:34. | :25:37. | |
Parliament is guilty of anything. But the party is guilty of something | :25:38. | :25:43. | |
because it misinformed you. The Labour Party, the Lib Dems, Ukip, | :25:44. | :25:47. | |
everyone had the same kind of project going on. In fact the Tories | :25:48. | :25:52. | |
were late in the day to do this kind of project because the Liberal | :25:53. | :25:54. | |
Democrats have been doing it for generations. One problem that the | :25:55. | :26:01. | |
Tories had was that you had few activists. On the ground, the | :26:02. | :26:06. | |
membership is not what it was. Using battle buses and ferrying people | :26:07. | :26:11. | |
around was a big part of the Tory campaign. In your seat wasn't that | :26:12. | :26:17. | |
the case? No. My case was straightforward. We did not want the | :26:18. | :26:23. | |
battle bus. That was said from day one. We were instructed to have the | :26:24. | :26:27. | |
battle bus, it was the same as everyone else, which is what the | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
parties do. They told you, you will take the battle bus, it's coming on | :26:33. | :26:37. | |
Tuesday... We were told it was a national spend, nothing more | :26:38. | :26:42. | |
sinister, deeper, or clandestinely. David, thank you for staying on and | :26:43. | :26:45. | |
clarifying that. Thank you. Are you someone who likes | :26:46. | :26:53. | |
collecting data on yourself - monitoring your sleep, | :26:54. | :26:56. | |
footsteps, heart rate? I mean seriously doing that, not | :26:57. | :26:57. | |
just the first few days of January? Well, we are potentially | :26:58. | :27:00. | |
on the cusp of something big - a chance not just for us to measure | :27:01. | :27:03. | |
everything we do, For companies, the benefits | :27:04. | :27:06. | |
are clear - but what Our technology editor David Grossman | :27:07. | :27:09. | |
looks at whether we should set limits on how much data companies | :27:10. | :27:12. | |
can gather about their workers. Clocking up the steps | :27:13. | :27:15. | |
on the way to the office. Along with other workers | :27:16. | :27:19. | |
at their firm, Beate and Rebecca And there are prizes for who can | :27:20. | :27:21. | |
rack up the most impressive numbers. I kind of think of myself | :27:22. | :27:27. | |
as being quite fit and healthy. But it's only really when I started | :27:28. | :27:30. | |
using it that I realised I didn't actually do that many steps | :27:31. | :27:33. | |
on a daily basis, so I think it's I've really enjoyed that, | :27:34. | :27:36. | |
knowing how many I'm doing and thinking about improving | :27:37. | :27:40. | |
it every day. This is my personal | :27:41. | :27:41. | |
individual dashboard. But isn't there a something perhaps | :27:42. | :27:43. | |
a bit creepy about sharing this sort Are you at all worried that it blurs | :27:44. | :27:50. | |
the line between your job So for those of us that doesn't | :27:51. | :27:57. | |
want to partake you don't And for the rest of us that do it | :27:58. | :28:05. | |
just adds a little bit The company says it's | :28:06. | :28:09. | |
all about getting a healthier The data the devices | :28:10. | :28:13. | |
generate is very much You have to take into context | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
that the wearable device itself is optional so not everybody | :28:18. | :28:24. | |
will use them and of course some people may give | :28:25. | :28:27. | |
them to their husbands, their wives, their children, | :28:28. | :28:29. | |
so you have to be careful. But we get high-level | :28:30. | :28:31. | |
anonymised data, but not Well it can help tell you how | :28:32. | :28:33. | |
many people are engaging with the wearable device | :28:34. | :28:40. | |
in the first place. And it might give you some broad | :28:41. | :28:42. | |
identification of sort of the levels of activity, | :28:43. | :28:44. | |
maybe in certain departments, certain groups of people, | :28:45. | :28:47. | |
you might be able to find But it won't be at | :28:48. | :28:49. | |
an individual level. Wearable tech at work | :28:50. | :28:52. | |
is a growing trend. According to analysis by ABI | :28:53. | :29:00. | |
research, companies gave out 200 million wearable devices | :29:01. | :29:02. | |
to employees last year. They predict that will rise | :29:03. | :29:04. | |
to 500 million a year by 2021. The rise of wearable technology | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
obviously offers fantastic insights for companies, | :29:09. | :29:11. | |
but at what cost? Just how much of our personal | :29:12. | :29:16. | |
information should we be invited to share with employers in the name | :29:17. | :29:20. | |
of efficiency and health? For example, there is no doubt that | :29:21. | :29:30. | |
well rested workers perform But does that mean we should | :29:31. | :29:33. | |
allow employers to keep an eye on our shut-eye, | :29:34. | :29:39. | |
just because the technology There may be a case for, | :29:40. | :29:41. | |
say, airline pilots, According to one pressure | :29:42. | :29:44. | |
group we are in danger of trading our souls in return | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
for a few flashy trinkets. Well in the case of wearables | :29:49. | :29:54. | |
I think employers are now starting to say, oh, | :29:55. | :29:57. | |
no, no, no, we will give you this wearable and you'll get free gym | :29:58. | :30:03. | |
membership, or we'll help reduce your health care insurance | :30:04. | :30:06. | |
costs or, if you lose this much weight or you get this much sleep | :30:07. | :30:09. | |
we will provide you Employers are going to be | :30:10. | :30:11. | |
quite savvy at trying to encourage employees to think | :30:12. | :30:14. | |
they are going to get Actually long term the benefit | :30:15. | :30:17. | |
does go to the employer, Because for all those benefits | :30:18. | :30:22. | |
that the employee is going to get they are also going to be under | :30:23. | :30:27. | |
a level of surveillance that many will see as completely inappropriate | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
and a breach of their private lives and their private selves | :30:31. | :30:32. | |
within the workplace. But this kind of technology | :30:33. | :30:34. | |
is rather old hat. It's just the start | :30:35. | :30:36. | |
of what's possible. Add a microphone, add Bluetooth | :30:37. | :30:40. | |
proximity sensors and employers will be able to plot a map | :30:41. | :30:42. | |
of how their employees Humanised describes itself | :30:43. | :30:45. | |
as a people analytics company. They use smart ID badges | :30:46. | :30:51. | |
which record who an employee is talking to and in | :30:52. | :30:54. | |
what tone of voice. It allows employers | :30:55. | :30:56. | |
to see the human network on which their organisation | :30:57. | :31:00. | |
is running, with some We don't share individual | :31:01. | :31:02. | |
data with companies. We don't track the amount of times | :31:03. | :31:07. | |
you go to the bathroom. But the idea is if you don't | :31:08. | :31:12. | |
want to participate you can even choose to wear a fake badge, | :31:13. | :31:17. | |
one doesn't collect any data. And we think that's important, | :31:18. | :31:20. | |
right, because at a high level, if you force employees | :31:21. | :31:23. | |
to try to wear this sort of thing, if you're able to track where people | :31:24. | :31:26. | |
go, any benefit you get from this technology would be dwarfed | :31:27. | :31:29. | |
by the negative reaction people We are very much at the beginning | :31:30. | :31:31. | |
of what's possible. So far the law in this area has not | :31:32. | :31:39. | |
got much further than some rather Even those at the cutting-edge | :31:40. | :31:43. | |
of workplace monitoring think We absolutely need more | :31:44. | :31:47. | |
regulation around this space. Technology in general tends | :31:48. | :31:55. | |
to outpace regulation But this technology has | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
been coming along now for a while and there are obviously | :31:59. | :32:03. | |
benefits both to individuals as well as companies, | :32:04. | :32:06. | |
but we need to make sure that we protect individual privacy | :32:07. | :32:08. | |
moving forward because again, if we don't do that people | :32:09. | :32:12. | |
will start doing the wrong thing with this and again that | :32:13. | :32:14. | |
will of course be terrible for the individuals involved | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
but also, even just from an industry perspective, that will affect us | :32:21. | :32:24. | |
moving forward as well, if there are people | :32:25. | :32:26. | |
operating in the wrong way. Employee monitoring has been around | :32:27. | :32:32. | |
as long as paid work itself. Well, I think it's | :32:33. | :32:42. | |
something foreign. What has changed is how | :32:43. | :32:54. | |
cheap and all pervasive Now the only limits are ones | :32:55. | :32:56. | |
we choose as a society to set. Tonight, it's David Goodhart | :32:57. | :33:09. | |
of the think tank Policy Exchange and author of the new book The Road | :33:10. | :33:17. | |
to Somewhere: The Populist Revolt In the five years to 2014, | :33:18. | :33:20. | |
the Office for National Statistics has revealed there was a dramatic | :33:21. | :35:42. | |
increase in the number of over At most other ages, marriage | :35:43. | :35:45. | |
rates have generally The actual numbers of | :35:46. | :35:51. | |
pensionable people getting married are still quite low - | :35:52. | :35:59. | |
but the upward trend is striking. And I saw you and I | :36:00. | :36:02. | |
thought aaaahhhh! And I walked over to say | :36:03. | :36:11. | |
hello to you and you'd And things were never | :36:12. | :36:23. | |
the same again afterwards. Being married is the | :36:24. | :36:34. | |
biggest commitment It's the most public | :36:35. | :36:37. | |
and private thing Sometimes getting married | :36:38. | :36:40. | |
makes sense through shared assets and pensions | :36:41. | :36:46. | |
and things like that. I had always said that | :36:47. | :36:49. | |
I didn't want it to be a practical decision, but more | :36:50. | :36:53. | |
of an emotional decision. Jane Falkingham is the Director | :36:54. | :36:55. | |
of the ESRC Centre for Population Change she joins us | :36:56. | :37:08. | |
from Southampton and Virginia Ironside is a journalist, | :37:09. | :37:10. | |
author and agony aunt Good evening to you both, let's | :37:11. | :37:19. | |
start on why these rates have gone up, what do you think has been | :37:20. | :37:24. | |
driving at Jane Falkingham? If you think about people aged over 65, | :37:25. | :37:30. | |
they were born in the 1940s and 1950s and these are the first | :37:31. | :37:36. | |
cohorts who have undergone large proportions are undergoing | :37:37. | :37:38. | |
divorcees. So they may well have got divorced in their 40s and 50s and | :37:39. | :37:43. | |
have been available to get married again in their 60s. Of course. | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
Virginia I have heard there is a technology thing going on, dating | :37:50. | :37:53. | |
apps are not just for the young and older people use them as well, is | :37:54. | :37:58. | |
that part of what is going on? Yes, but dating is different to getting | :37:59. | :38:03. | |
married. Yes but you have to start somewhere. I don't know why they | :38:04. | :38:07. | |
can't just hang out together, beat together, why do they have to get | :38:08. | :38:12. | |
married? Marriage seems so strange for a generation that was young in | :38:13. | :38:17. | |
the 60s, that believed in living together, that thought of marriage | :38:18. | :38:22. | |
is just a bit of paper. Do you know people of the later age group who | :38:23. | :38:25. | |
are getting married and do you know others who are cohabiting or playing | :38:26. | :38:31. | |
around? I know people who are together and have been together for | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
a long time in their old age but have not married. And I know a | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
couple who are married but lived in separate homes. I think that's an | :38:41. | :38:45. | |
odd thing because neither of them want to give up their | :38:46. | :38:48. | |
self-sufficiency, they only want to see each other at certain times so | :38:49. | :38:52. | |
why they want to actually get married I don't know. Because it | :38:53. | :38:56. | |
also raises incredible difficulties with the children, wills, who gets | :38:57. | :39:05. | |
what and when. The other thing that has happened is different attitudes | :39:06. | :39:09. | |
to the independence of women which must play a big part in all of this | :39:10. | :39:15. | |
right? Yes, women are far more economically independent than they | :39:16. | :39:18. | |
were in the past and particularly this cohort, again this will be the | :39:19. | :39:22. | |
first generation of women retiring with pensions in their own right and | :39:23. | :39:26. | |
they will be economically independent so I am also somewhat | :39:27. | :39:30. | |
surprised we are seeing this rise in marriage rates. But it is from a low | :39:31. | :39:37. | |
base and we have more people available to be married. Life | :39:38. | :39:40. | |
expectancy has also gone up so obviously, you may think of yourself | :39:41. | :39:45. | |
when you reach 65 as much younger than people thought when it was 30 | :39:46. | :39:51. | |
or 40 years ago. Yes, a 65-year-old woman has about another 25 years. Do | :39:52. | :39:56. | |
you think loneliness has a lot to do with it? I think that's quite | :39:57. | :40:03. | |
tricky, again, I did look at the data earlier today and most of these | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
marriages are taking place of people who are fairly, around 65-74 and | :40:08. | :40:16. | |
actually that age group are still fairly socially active. It's a | :40:17. | :40:20. | |
little bit later on in old age where you might expect loneliness to kick | :40:21. | :40:25. | |
in and social isolation due to people not being able to physically | :40:26. | :40:30. | |
get out and about. Virginia you do not seem that keen on this new | :40:31. | :40:35. | |
fashion! But it is isolation in much later life as Jane has just said and | :40:36. | :40:41. | |
maybe this is a way of protecting yourself? Again but you don't have | :40:42. | :40:45. | |
to marry. Marion does bring with it a lot of knots which need untied. | :40:46. | :40:52. | |
What is bothering you? What I am talking about is the will aspect and | :40:53. | :41:02. | |
when there are two lots of children, two people get married. One is | :41:03. | :41:05. | |
living in the family home, the other one dies, it is a nightmare and that | :41:06. | :41:09. | |
is something I think a lot of people don't think about. You have got the | :41:10. | :41:16. | |
families in the background. Yes, exactly, interestingly I think Jane | :41:17. | :41:20. | |
might agree that it was men of over 65 who got more married than women | :41:21. | :41:25. | |
and I can sort of see that, they might want a housekeeper. Jane, one | :41:26. | :41:30. | |
other thing, what are the trends on divorce amongst older people? Often | :41:31. | :41:34. | |
when children have maybe left home or go on on to lead adult lives you | :41:35. | :41:39. | |
are left spending quite a long time together? That's right, divorce | :41:40. | :41:46. | |
rates are rising fairly rapidly in later life, there is this new group | :41:47. | :41:50. | |
called the Silver splitters and we have done work at the centre where | :41:51. | :41:53. | |
we were looking at the impact of divorce in later life on the | :41:54. | :41:58. | |
relationships between adult children and their parents. Actually we found | :41:59. | :42:04. | |
that people who were getting divorced post-60, adult children may | :42:05. | :42:09. | |
be in their 40s, may even have grandchildren, and it was the adult | :42:10. | :42:14. | |
children who were very annoyed that their parents were getting divorced. | :42:15. | :42:19. | |
Even at that age. A fascinating topic, thank you both very much. | :42:20. | :42:22. | |
I will be back tomorrow, but until then have a very good night. | :42:23. | :42:38. | |
19 Celsius in London today but things are about to turn cooler and | :42:39. | :42:45. | |
for the weekend wetter and windier. For Thursday a band of | :42:46. | :42:46. |