Refferendwm Yr Alban Pawb a'i Farn


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Hello. Welcome to a special Pawb a'i Farn from Scotland's largest city.

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In ten days' time Scotland will go to the polls

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and answer whether the country should be independent or not.

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It is an historic vote. It will also affect the rest of Britain.

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Over the next hour, we will discuss independence

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and the effect of the result on Scotland and Wales.

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We have a studio audience here at the striking BBC centre in Glasgow.

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Most people here have made up their minds

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but others are still undecided.

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I'm looking forward to hearing what they've got to say.

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And we have a panel. Two in favour of independence and two against.

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We have two people from Wales.

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Ceri Green, an engineer, and Dr Gwen Jones Edwards, a psychiatrist.

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And we have two Pawb A'i Farn favourites,

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who have travelled up from Wales, Labour's Baroness Eluned Morgan

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and singer and former Plaid Cymru president, Dafydd Iwan.

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Please offer them a warm welcome.

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APPLAUSE

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Two other things.

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We will have a special overnight programme on the 18th,

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bringing in all the live results through BBC Radio Cymru and S4C.

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You can also join in this evening on Twitter.

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The hashtag is #ReffAlban.

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We are ready to get going. I will be sitting down tonight.

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Let's get our first question in Glasgow from Caradog Roberts.

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Your question, please.

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Two opinion polls today suggest that the vote will be extremely close.

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As the facts are so complex, do the panellists agree

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that this will be an emotional vote,

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a vote of the heart rather than the head,

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on September 18th?

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Thanks, Caradog. A good question to start our debate.

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Two opinion polls today suggest that the vote will be extremely close.

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As the facts are so complex, says Caradog,

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do the panellists agree that this will be an emotional

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vote on September 18th? Can you start us off, Gwen?

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I do not agree, to be honest. The facts are complex.

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The people are very passionate and educated on this matter.

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Some people have relied on the newspapers.

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And if you rely on the newspapers, you will get different story,

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especially if you listen to the newspapers in England.

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I think the newspapers in Scotland are closer to the truth.

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It has got extremely close over the recent weeks. What has happened?

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We have seen these opinion polls today

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saying there are just two points in it.

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People are interested.

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Until recently, maybe they saw that this vote was sometime

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in the future but now it is in just a fortnight, less than a fortnight.

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Everyone is interested in this now.

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I think the second live TV debate where Alex Salmond did really well

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really turned things around.

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Even though some people didn't see it as a factual debate,

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I think it was a problem that Darling

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could not answer the important questions.

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That might have had an influence.

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What's happened to the No campaign, Ceri?

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Yes, the gap has closed over recent weeks.

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It's very complex. People are making their minds up.

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I think what will happen now is that people will start to get scared

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that it may be a Yes vote.

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They will start to wonder how much it will cost.

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That hasn't happened yet.

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Hasn't the No campaign been negative?

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Well, if you are asking people to vote No, it is bound to be negative.

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Maybe the question could have been,

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would you like to remain a part of Britain?

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Then we could be the Yes campaign.

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I think that people are starting to think of this as a possibility.

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And then they will start to think about what it will cost them.

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How it will affect families if we go down this route?

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We'll discuss that later. Dafydd, will this be an emotional vote?

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To an extent.

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But thank you for this opportunity to come up to Scotland.

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I have an idea in my heart, I will be telling my children

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and my children's children that I was there in Glasgow

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during the days leading up to the historic Yes vote in Scotland.

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-It could go the other way, of course.

-No, I am convinced.

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What's going to turn this thing around is the motivation

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that people have to go out and vote Yes.

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They will take this opportunity to start a new,

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exciting chapter in the history of Scotland.

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I think this is a bigger incentive than,

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"I think I'll go and vote in favour of the status quo..."

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But there is uncertainty.

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Thousands of people have not made up their minds.

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There is uncertainty over the current situation.

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Hardly anyone in Scotland or Wales voted for this coalition.

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There is so much uncertainty over part-time jobs for our young people.

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There is uncertainty everywhere.

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What is important with this referendum is that it is

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an opportunity to do something different.

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-Is UKIP the answer? Or the referendum?

-Thank you very much.

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Eluned Morgan. You have been campaigning today.

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What's your impression?

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I think there is a danger that it will be an emotional vote

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and people will wake up the following day and say,

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what happened there?

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What's wrong with an emotional vote?

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Let me tell you a story, Ireland in the 1990s,

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I went to a folk festival and Dafydd Iwan was performing.

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Everyone was stood on their feet. It was amazing.

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I thought, I do not believe a word this man says.

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So I sat down. The following day I was thinking,

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I'm sure a lot of people agreed with me

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but they went along with it, swept up in it.

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You cannot change your mind the following day. This is forever.

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People have to think about this sensibly and understand

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that what is important is that as part of Britain is social unity.

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We all pay into the best insurance policy in the world.

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It looks after you when you're ill,

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looks after you if you're unemployed and helps you when you're old.

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We will return to that point but the No vote has lost ground.

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The gap has closed 20 points in a month.

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The problem is that I think this emotion is taking over.

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I think what we will now see is what happened in Quebec,

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where it was very close.

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People looked over the precipice and thought,

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we do not want to go there.

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Do you think that Keir Hardie spoke with the mind or the heart?

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He was one of the first leaders of the Labour Party.

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He was Scottish and stood in Wales.

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He believed in independence for Scotland.

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That was not emotion, it was common sense and the heart together.

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-We live in different world.

-Principles don't change, Eluned.

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Hang on. Things have changed.

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You disagree and go to the House of Lords.

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We live in a world right now where we need to work together

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and we must remember that you cannot take things from the state

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and expect them to pay for it.

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Capitalism is something that we have to live with.

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Thanks, Eluned, for now.

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Let's return to the audience. You've all got a lot to say.

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Caradog, you asked the question. Why are these facts too complex?

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They are complex. We need to look forward as regards the economy.

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But no-one knows what will happen.

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Economists are constantly arguing.

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We don't know either way. They are complex arguments.

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Would you accept what Eluned said,

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that an emotional vote could be dangerous?

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Possibly. But what other option is there?

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We have no choice.

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And in the back row. Catrin Huws Jones.

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The idea that Britain has the National Insurance.

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One of the biggest arguments in the referendum

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and what's got people mobilised is that National Insurance

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is so much stronger in Scotland.

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There's the concept behind the NHS and social care and universities,

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free student fees and free prescriptions.

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I think a lot of people who don't feel passionately in favour

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of an independent Scotland

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have been turned by the idea that we would be stronger

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as an independent country.

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I don't think it helps the Union argument,

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the idea that we have this National Insurance,

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when it's being dismantled by London.

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And you think that is what has

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attracted Labour voters in particular?

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Yes, certainly.

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Speaking to people my age,

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taking an interest in politics for the first time,

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it has been a fantastically interesting experience.

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-It's been a major talking point.

-Thanks, Catrin.

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Keith Bowen. You are likely to vote no.

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Yes, the SNP is on fire but there is hardly a No campaign.

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If someone argues with the SNP or stands up to them,

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they come out with threats. Jim Murphy.

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It's a rent-a-mob. People have been following him and egging him.

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The head of Barrhead Travel has been charged. It's bitter.

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We've been saying that it's a passionate debate. Dafydd.

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To be fair, that's happened on both sides to some degree.

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The thing is, and I'm sure Gwen will agree,

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this has been a long campaign, it has been a thorough campaign

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and people have worked very hard to get people to the point

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where they have thought for themselves.

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Young people are desperate to go out and vote.

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They are talking about 80% or 90%. That is great for politics.

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Initially, the debates were held in English in London

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and broadcast on television.

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They were taking it easy.

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They were saying, don't leave us! We love you, Scotland!

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That is to say, I like Scotland! I like going there on holiday!

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Don't leave us! The people of Scotland are not leaving anybody.

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What is important is that we have a new partnership

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across the British Isles which will be fairer across the nations

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and the English regions

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which will provide a fairer outcome for everyone.

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Has it been a bitter debate?

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Are you worried about the standard of debate?

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Until a fortnight ago, no. Things have intensified.

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Where I come from, the majority are against.

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I don't come across as many people who are in favour.

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I would if I lived in Glasgow.

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Let's go back to the audience. Mike Evans.

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When I was growing up in the Gwendraeth Valley,

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it was very emotional to vote for Labour at that time.

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One of the differences between the time of Keir Hardie and now

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is that something like 100 countries

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have become independent during that time.

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Eluned Morgan. Gwen, first.

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Speaking about Jim Murphy, if you have seen Jim Murphy speak

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during this campaign, he is the rent-a-mob.

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-He is a loathsome man in the way he comes across.

-Strong words.

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Yes. I have seen enough of him on YouTube.

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He attracts that kind of reaction.

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I think that is what he is trying to do.

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There are plenty of things going on on the other side as well.

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Speaking about this emotional vote,

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would Scotland be an important addition to the international stage?

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Would it matter on the international stage?

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Yes, because Scotland is cosmopolitan country,

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a creative country and it has so much to offer the world.

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Going back to National Insurance, it's not working in Scotland.

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You are here in Glasgow.

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One in four men in Glasgow will die before they are 65.

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-But will an independent Scotland make any difference?

-Yes.

-How?

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We know that the medical reason is not smoking or drinking,

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it is a lack of hope and a lack of choice.

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These people have no choice.

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We need to offer them something solid.

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Eluned, you can have the last word on this question.

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Scottish debt.

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Scotland has spent more than it has raised over the last 20 years.

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-You disagree?

-Over the last 33 years,

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we have made more money in Scotland

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and given more to Westminster than we have received.

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Your figures are completely different to mine.

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If it is so expensive, why is London so eager to keep hold of it?

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Because we want to keep the United Kingdom.

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That's the emotional argument on our side.

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But you could say that to Latvia or Lithuania.

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Don't we want a different union between individual countries

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that work as partners?

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I think the United Kingdom is an old-fashioned notion.

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It has failed.

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Just a moment. I want to move on. You can end the discussion.

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I saw your hand was up, Einir McDonald.

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Eluned, you said that we are part of the UK's National Insurance,

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which includes the NHS,

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and now the government is trying to privatise the NHS.

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That is not what we want.

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That is why a lot of people are changing their minds to vote Yes.

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Let's move on.

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You'll get a chance to respond, Eluned.

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Let's get our second question. Rhian Noble Jones. Your question, please.

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Chancellor George Osborne has today promised more powers for Scotland

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if there is a No vote.

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The First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones,

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has said Wales would have the same powers.

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Whichever way it goes, what affect will it have on Wales and Britain?

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There we are. Thank you very much.

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We are here to discuss that question.

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The Chancellor has said Scotland will get more powers

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if the No vote wins and Carwyn Jones

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has said today that the same powers should be offered to Wales.

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Whatever the result, there is going to be an effect on Wales

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and the rest of the UK.

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-But what will it be, Eluded Morgan?

-It's not going to be a positive one.

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I don't understand why Plaid Cymru is helping the Yes vote in Scotland

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because it is going to have negative affect on Wales.

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You would not expect them to support the No vote, let's be practical.

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I would have thought that Plaid Cymru would be more concerned

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about Wales than anything else and they are obviously not.

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We are clearly a lot better off in this situation.

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We are not calling for independence in Wales

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so we would continue to be part of what remains of Britain.

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You have got to remember,

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we would have 40 MPs in a Westminster of 550 English MPs.

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We are going to have smaller voice.

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The fact they are offering federalism,

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offering something new, more powers,

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I think that is good for Wales and I don't think Plaid Cymru

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should be here campaigning against it because it would damage Wales.

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That is a pretty clear argument.

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Independence in Scotland would damage Wales.

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A few weeks ago, Plaid Cymru put forward some amendments to the

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Wales Act in the House of Commons

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to have more borrowing powers to create jobs in Wales,

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to have powers over income tax and over natural resources in Wales.

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The Labour Party opposed all of those three options.

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Carwyn Jones has got a nerve to say we want the same powers as Scotland

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because he has opposed...

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Carwyn, I am very fond of him,

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he says the right things but he does not do the right things.

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At the moment, Labour, hand in hand with the Tories,

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is preventing more powers from coming to Wales.

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A Yes vote in Scotland will change politics in Wales

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and across Britain.

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But what about Eluned's idea that Wales will become an afterthought?

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That depends on the people of Wales.

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This is going to force us to stand on our feet and demand those powers.

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We need to demand equality, whether it's a No vote or a Yes vote.

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We need to draw confidence from what we see in Scotland.

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Are you concerned about the effect on Wales?

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They say they are going to come up with some kind of federal system,

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which will be interesting.

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But I would imagine things are going to change in Wales.

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It is a bit late, the day before the referendum!

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-Things change.

-But as someone who is going to vote against,

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-don't you think they have just rushed that forward?

-Not really.

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For some time, the three biggest parties have said there will be

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more powers given to Scotland if there is a No vote.

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But what happens then is that people want to know

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what kind of changes they will be.

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-Some kind of federalism, apparently.

-Rhian, you asked the question.

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Are you concerned about this?

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I'm not sure.

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I would like to say yes in favour of Scotland

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but I am concerned about the effect it will have on Wales.

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Based on what? The kind of thing Eluned has just said?

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I think we will have a weaker Celtic voice in Westminster.

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Does anyone else want to contribute? Janet Davies.

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You're up from Wales for the night.

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If we have a federal system which works,

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why did David Cameron and George Osborne oppose

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posing the question about Devo Max or federalism on the voting card?

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Thanks for the question.

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Richard Owen? You're also up from Ceredigion for the night.

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As Dafydd said, a good result in Scotland

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would set an example for Wales.

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It is easy to say but Wales has a weak voice as it is,

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as Dafydd has demonstrated.

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If the Labour Party is in favour of these powers,

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why vote against them in the House of Commons?

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Why is this offer only coming now,

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after polls showing that the situation has closed?

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If they are so keen on powers, why not ask sooner?

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Thank you. Margaret Evans?

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At the moment, I have not decided which way to vote.

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But I would like to say, if people in Scotland vote yes,

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maybe it will give people in Wales confidence

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to see what they can achieve for themselves.

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At the moment, we do have a weaker voice,

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but if we had more confidence,

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we could get stronger and show what we want.

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-You think Wales would be inspired by a yes vote?

-Yes.

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At the back.

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Are you concerned about Wales' future?

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Not Wales.

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I am worried about Wales, of course, but I think about Yorkshire

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and London.

0:23:050:23:07

Does that mean federalism is going to be an advantage to them?

0:23:070:23:12

Are we all going to be little pawns?

0:23:120:23:16

I don't like the sound of it.

0:23:160:23:20

I think Wales is too small, too weak,

0:23:200:23:26

is not rich enough to have the same as Scotland.

0:23:260:23:34

Eluded Morgan answers some of those points.

0:23:420:23:46

What is good about this discussion is that we are finally having

0:23:460:23:51

the discussion we should have been having a long time ago.

0:23:510:23:54

London has taken far too many powers.

0:23:540:23:57

Far too much is centralised in London

0:23:570:24:00

and people have finally realised that.

0:24:000:24:04

In terms of the discussion, this referendum is a good thing.

0:24:040:24:08

But I do think that we are completely different to Scotland.

0:24:080:24:13

We are a lot poorer.

0:24:130:24:14

If you want to start having separate income tax, we would lose out.

0:24:140:24:20

We do not raise enough income tax in our country.

0:24:200:24:25

Only around 6,000 people in Wales pay the top level.

0:24:250:24:32

6,000!

0:24:320:24:36

That is not the same as in Scotland. It is completely different.

0:24:360:24:42

That is why this insurance policy, we have got to come together.

0:24:420:24:47

We need an insurance policy with 60 million people share

0:24:470:24:51

the burden rather than five million before in Scotland or 3 million

0:24:510:24:55

people in Wales.

0:24:550:24:57

But are we still stronger together if Scotland is independent?

0:24:570:24:59

We would be because we are still financially

0:24:590:25:02

reliant on people in England and Scotland helping us.

0:25:020:25:07

We started the Industrial Revolution,

0:25:070:25:10

we have brought our share of wealth,

0:25:100:25:15

but at the moment the economy in Wales needs

0:25:150:25:20

to grow a lot stronger before we even start talking

0:25:200:25:22

about independence.

0:25:220:25:24

A million people in Scotland live in poverty

0:25:240:25:29

and 100,000 children are in poverty.

0:25:290:25:35

But is that down to the UK Government?

0:25:350:25:39

Is there any evidence that it would change?

0:25:390:25:43

The power over fracking was taken away from Hollyrood

0:25:430:25:47

so it is going to happen in Scotland

0:25:470:25:54

and many people are not going to be happy about that at all.

0:25:540:26:03

Dafydd Iwan, on this point,

0:26:030:26:07

is poverty in Scotland a bad reflection on the country?

0:26:070:26:16

It should inspire you.

0:26:270:26:28

No-one thought ten years ago we would have a

0:26:280:26:31

referendum on independence now.

0:26:310:26:33

It is an ongoing process.

0:26:330:26:36

I am very disappointed to hear someone say Wales has

0:26:360:26:40

contributed a little bit.

0:26:400:26:42

Wales has been pillaged for its water,

0:26:420:26:45

its coal and many other resources.

0:26:450:26:51

It is time for us to realise that we have wealth.

0:26:510:26:56

A victory in Scotland would inspire Wales for years to come.

0:26:560:27:04

You have got to leave the House of Lords

0:27:060:27:08

and come back to the people.

0:27:080:27:11

This is important.

0:27:110:27:14

This is inopportunity for us to scrap the House of Lords

0:27:140:27:19

and have a federal system where if there representation.

0:27:190:27:24

It's as important in England.

0:27:240:27:32

I am going to stop you there. We must take a break.

0:27:320:27:40

Welcome back to a special edition of Pawb a'i Farn.

0:28:020:28:07

We are in Scotland discussing the Scottish referendum.

0:28:070:28:12

We have had two questions, let's move on to the third question.

0:28:120:28:17

The uncertainty over an independent Scotland's economic situation

0:28:170:28:22

is a cause of concern for many.

0:28:220:28:24

Should we be worried about our savings, our pensions and the pound?

0:28:240:28:30

The uncertainty over

0:28:300:28:32

an independent's Scotland's economic situation

0:28:320:28:36

is a cause of concern for many.

0:28:360:28:39

Should we be worried about our savings and pensions?

0:28:390:28:42

This could be the crux of the matter for many people.

0:28:420:28:46

It is all about the savings, our pensions and the pound?

0:28:460:28:54

Money in your pocket. How do you respond to that question?

0:28:540:28:59

Is this central to the economy?

0:28:590:29:04

I think it will open a Pandora's box of uncertainty.

0:29:040:29:10

The cost of interest rates will go up regularly.

0:29:100:29:16

I think borrowing will become more expensive.

0:29:160:29:21

Money is already going down to the south.

0:29:210:29:29

There was an article in the Daily Mail today saying that

0:29:300:29:34

pensions were going down to London from Scotland.

0:29:340:29:40

I do not think that the economic figures being put

0:29:400:29:48

forward by the SNP.

0:29:480:29:51

You are convinced that Scotland will be poorer.

0:29:510:29:57

People mention the North Sea oil and gas.

0:29:570:30:05

But there is only so much remaining.

0:30:050:30:10

There will be other costs.

0:30:100:30:12

I think there will be less money available for things

0:30:120:30:20

like social services, and so on.

0:30:200:30:25

Is this the big important matter?

0:30:250:30:28

I think so and people are worried about it

0:30:280:30:31

but I don't agree with Ceri at all.

0:30:310:30:34

Scotland is a rich country.

0:30:340:30:38

We don't even have to come the North Sea oil and gas.

0:30:380:30:47

And there is a lot of that remaining.

0:30:470:30:51

That will sustain as for a long time.

0:30:510:30:54

But you have been saying about poverty.

0:30:540:31:00

Where is the evidence it is a rich country?

0:31:000:31:03

It is a rich country because it makes a lot of money.

0:31:030:31:09

All of the money goes to Westminster.

0:31:090:31:11

We are given pocket money.

0:31:110:31:15

Scotland receives more than Wales but it pays in more by a long way.

0:31:150:31:20

Pensions will be safe.

0:31:200:31:23

We know that public pensions in Scotland have run well.

0:31:230:31:31

What about this concern

0:31:330:31:35

that pensions will be going to the south-east.

0:31:350:31:42

Big businesses deciding to go down to London.

0:31:420:31:47

These companies will return.

0:31:470:31:50

When people move their money down to the banks in England,

0:31:500:31:58

it is the same bank really.

0:31:580:32:01

If you invest your money in The Royal Bank of Scotland,

0:32:010:32:04

most of it is NatWest.

0:32:040:32:07

It did not go well for The Royal Bank of Scotland.

0:32:070:32:14

Let's discuss the economy. How would you answer your own question?

0:32:140:32:19

I think that uncertainty is the big thing.

0:32:190:32:23

I do not think that all the facts are being put forward.

0:32:230:32:32

The Yes vote does not convince me

0:32:320:32:36

that things will be all right as regards pensions and savings.

0:32:360:32:44

Are you worried about the future of the pound?

0:32:440:32:48

It would be good if we knew for certain what would be happening.

0:32:480:32:55

What about Margaret next to you?

0:32:550:33:00

Are you worried about the economy?

0:33:000:33:04

Yes, but I think that they cannot stop issuing the pound.

0:33:040:33:10

The Westminster Government does not represent the people of Scotland.

0:33:100:33:16

I think this is a great opportunity.

0:33:160:33:26

Jack Williams?

0:33:260:33:28

In principle, I am in favour of the idea of independence.

0:33:280:33:32

But there is so much uncertainty

0:33:320:33:36

and it makes very difficult to know which way to vote.

0:33:360:33:42

There is a hand up in the back row.

0:33:420:33:48

Where will they get the money?

0:33:480:33:55

I would like to know and no-one can give me an answer,

0:33:550:33:58

what about these children in poverty, where have they come from?

0:34:000:34:04

If the money has been in Scotland, why hasn't anyone

0:34:040:34:08

done anything about it sooner?

0:34:080:34:10

Why are they in poverty right now?

0:34:100:34:13

Because the money does not remain in Scotland.

0:34:130:34:17

The money goes to Westminster and we are given money back.

0:34:170:34:21

There is no way in Scotland

0:34:210:34:23

because of the tax system to start up

0:34:230:34:28

new jobs, new industry - the industry has gone.

0:34:280:34:33

The ship-building industry has gone.

0:34:330:34:36

They are talking about creating all these jobs,

0:34:360:34:43

they will create all these jobs after the 18th of September.

0:34:430:34:48

No, it will take time.

0:34:480:34:52

It is not gone to be easy and it will take time.

0:34:520:34:56

But at least we will have control.

0:34:560:34:58

At the moment we do not have control.

0:34:580:35:04

Can I just mention this uncertainty?

0:35:040:35:07

It is getting on my nerves, to be honest.

0:35:070:35:11

I have lived through the double dip and the recent credit crunch

0:35:110:35:15

and I'm not that confident with the current system.

0:35:150:35:20

It is laughable that we are talking about this uncertainty.

0:35:200:35:26

The current system obviously does not work.

0:35:260:35:29

Independence will shake things up.

0:35:290:35:35

That is what needs to happen.

0:35:350:35:39

And in the front row?

0:35:390:35:43

I would like to say that we do not get the government that we

0:35:430:35:46

vote for in Scotland.

0:35:460:35:48

Maybe that is why it is such a mess.

0:35:480:35:52

It is impossible to look into the future and predict it but in looking

0:35:520:35:58

to the past, where has the money from the oil gone?

0:35:580:36:02

We are talking about half a trillion.

0:36:020:36:06

I'm talking about a trillion,

0:36:060:36:08

the UK debt right now is over trillion.

0:36:080:36:12

And the interest we are paying on this money is one million.

0:36:120:36:15

We are paying that interest every week.

0:36:190:36:23

We're in a terrible mess.

0:36:230:36:26

We have no choice.

0:36:260:36:31

I would say, there is nothing more uncertain than

0:36:310:36:36

having your economy run from the capital of another country.

0:36:360:36:43

The British economy is run for the benefit of a small part of England.

0:36:430:36:51

Forget about pension rates and so on, there is

0:36:510:36:56

nothing more uncertain than this situation.

0:36:560:37:00

Where has all this money gone?

0:37:000:37:08

It went to Westminster and Margaret Thatcher.

0:37:080:37:12

It went towards keeping the country going.

0:37:120:37:14

We have not used it as Norway has used their money.

0:37:140:37:21

So Alex Salmond is right?

0:37:210:37:23

No. It is different.

0:37:230:37:27

Scotland has lost their ship-building industry.

0:37:270:37:34

The Norwegians have done it.

0:37:340:37:37

The unions in Scotland have killed it all.

0:37:370:37:41

Eluned Morgan?

0:37:410:37:44

Money is important to everyone.

0:37:440:37:48

That is what decides whether you have jobs.

0:37:480:37:55

800,000 jobs on the financial sector are in Scotland.

0:37:550:38:03

95% of the people with savings in RBS for example live in England.

0:38:050:38:12

I am certain this will happen.

0:38:120:38:16

It needs to be where the customers are.

0:38:160:38:22

They will want regulation from somewhere in England.

0:38:220:38:27

So it is likely that those jobs will go.

0:38:270:38:32

There will be fewer jobs.

0:38:320:38:36

And it will affect Wales.

0:38:360:38:39

I think that this will affect the financial markets tomorrow.

0:38:390:38:46

No-one was expecting this to be quite so close.

0:38:460:38:49

It could push us back into recession.

0:38:490:38:54

As a prominent Welsh Labour member,

0:38:540:38:57

are you happy with the attitude in Westminster regarding the pound?

0:38:570:39:05

I don't want to provide another bailout,

0:39:050:39:10

£46 billion we have paid to help RBS.

0:39:100:39:15

If they are and independent country, I don't what to take that burden

0:39:150:39:22

and have to make cuts in our hospitals.

0:39:220:39:25

So your message is, they are not having the pound.

0:39:250:39:31

They can use it but they won't have the right to influence

0:39:310:39:34

the bank of England.

0:39:390:39:43

The money to save these banks came from America.

0:39:430:39:49

We are paying a price in Wales because of the mess the banks made.

0:39:490:39:54

We have made cuts in our schools and hospitals.

0:39:540:39:58

The audience has made the point very well.

0:39:580:40:02

Where is the certainty now?

0:40:020:40:04

How many people have lost their savings?

0:40:040:40:06

How many people are seeing their parents'

0:40:060:40:09

savings disappearing to pay for their care

0:40:090:40:13

when they are elderly?

0:40:130:40:20

The record of small countries in Europe...

0:40:200:40:23

Like Iceland? They have done really well!

0:40:230:40:26

The record of smaller countries is far better.

0:40:260:40:31

Greece and Spain have struggled.

0:40:310:40:35

If Catalonia was independent...

0:40:350:40:39

There is no certainty.

0:40:390:40:42

We need to focus on the needs of our people.

0:40:420:40:47

We need to forget about spending millions on Trident.

0:40:470:40:52

It is time for another break.

0:40:520:40:56

Join us again in two minutes.

0:40:560:40:59

Welcome back.

0:41:140:41:16

It is nice to have your company for this special

0:41:160:41:19

edition of the programme.

0:41:190:41:21

We are discussing the referendum

0:41:210:41:23

which is taking place on September 18.

0:41:230:41:28

I think this will be our last question tonight.

0:41:280:41:31

Richard Owen from Aberystwyth is campaigning for the Yes vote.

0:41:310:41:36

Wouldn't independence for Scotland be an opportunity for Scotland

0:41:360:41:42

and Britain to get rid of nuclear weapons?

0:41:420:41:45

That is the question.

0:41:450:41:50

I am going to start with you, Dafydd Iwan.

0:41:500:41:55

One of the most important things that has happened during this debate,

0:41:550:42:01

and it has been a long campaign,

0:42:010:42:04

is that people have been drawn into the discussion.

0:42:040:42:07

Young and old.

0:42:070:42:09

They are discussing things we don't get an opportunity to discuss.

0:42:090:42:14

Was there ever a discussion on Trident? No.

0:42:140:42:16

It creates jobs so it is there.

0:42:160:42:18

We are spending billions of pounds on keeping a weapons system,

0:42:180:42:28

which if we did use them, would be the end of the world.

0:42:280:42:32

It is crazy to base an economy on such dangerous weapons.

0:42:320:42:36

We know there is a threat from these terrorists but Trident is no good.

0:42:360:42:44

Wouldn't it be even more dangerous if we did not have Trident?

0:42:460:42:51

It doesn't protect anyone from terrorism.

0:42:510:42:54

The only good thing about this campaign is that people can

0:42:540:42:58

have their say.

0:42:580:43:00

On Twitter, you can see what ordinary people have to say.

0:43:000:43:04

In an independent Scotland, you don't have to enter wars.

0:43:040:43:11

We went into Iraq, killed thousands of people,

0:43:110:43:18

and we did not believe in the campaign.

0:43:180:43:21

We can avoid that in future.

0:43:210:43:23

Independence would be worth it for that alone.

0:43:230:43:26

We need to get rid of Trident

0:43:260:43:28

and build an economy based on things that make sense.

0:43:280:43:33

Ceri, you live pretty close to the centre were Trident is kept.

0:43:330:43:38

This is of great importance to that area.

0:43:380:43:42

In terms of jobs, yes.

0:43:420:43:45

It is the jobs which provides the most industrial jobs

0:43:450:43:49

anywhere in Scotland.

0:43:490:43:51

It will be very important.

0:43:510:43:55

But on the other hand, thinking about this idea,

0:43:550:43:59

then say they want to be a member of NATO.

0:43:590:44:04

A crucial part of NATO's strategy is to have Trident.

0:44:040:44:11

I don't see why they want to be a member and want to have that

0:44:110:44:17

umbrella which is provided by Trident

0:44:170:44:20

and then to get rid of it.

0:44:200:44:24

It is hypocritical.

0:44:240:44:28

Being a member of a body like NATO enables you to

0:44:280:44:33

influence their policies.

0:44:330:44:34

The discussion over Trident has never been had.

0:44:340:44:39

Have you ever had an opportunity to give an opinion on Trident?

0:44:390:44:42

This is your opportunity.

0:44:420:44:46

You are not going to get much enthusiasm out of me on Trident.

0:44:460:44:50

Carwyn Jones said it should come to Milford Haven.

0:44:500:44:55

You have got to realise that if you are an independent country,

0:44:550:44:59

you need an army, a Navy,

0:44:590:45:04

an air force.

0:45:040:45:07

Alex Salmond has said that is going to happen. You need your own BBC.

0:45:070:45:10

There will be major cuts in the BBC if 10% is cut

0:45:100:45:15

because it is going to Scotland.

0:45:150:45:18

It would not be the BBC.

0:45:180:45:21

Let's stick to nuclear weapons.

0:45:210:45:24

It's important because terrorism is a real problem.

0:45:240:45:27

We have seen that in Cardiff.

0:45:280:45:30

Some of the people who have gone to Syria are from Cardiff.

0:45:300:45:33

Terrorism is a major problem and we have to make sure

0:45:330:45:36

people do not come back and start attacking us on our own soil.

0:45:360:45:41

-Is Trident going to stop them?

-No, but...

0:45:410:45:45

But wouldn't getting rid of Trident put this all-in danger?

0:45:450:45:49

Not at all.

0:45:520:45:55

The majority of countries which are part of NATO do not have

0:45:550:46:00

something like Trident.

0:46:000:46:02

I think Iceland and Greenland, for example.

0:46:020:46:06

But in terms of defence,

0:46:060:46:11

Trident does not defend as at all.

0:46:110:46:14

It has had no effect on the wars

0:46:140:46:17

in Iraq, Gaza, Afghanistan.

0:46:170:46:21

And it does not create employment of substance.

0:46:210:46:30

Only 500 workers work on the nuclear side of it.

0:46:300:46:34

So you want to see those submarines moving to England or Wales?

0:46:340:46:37

I want them to disappear.

0:46:370:46:39

Every job costs £600,000 a year to maintain.

0:46:390:46:45

You could pay people that much to do nothing.

0:46:450:46:49

We don't have to build nuclear weapons.

0:46:490:46:51

Richard, you asked the question.

0:46:530:46:56

They are saying that weapons to replace Trident

0:46:560:47:01

would cost £100 billion.

0:47:010:47:05

After 15 years, it will be a lot more than that.

0:47:050:47:10

They are very expensive.

0:47:100:47:15

And you can't use them.

0:47:150:47:17

Mike Evans, will you be voting to get rid of nuclear weapons?

0:47:170:47:21

Not specifically.

0:47:210:47:23

Turning to defence, one or two members of the panel have said

0:47:230:47:30

that Scotland is too small to defend itself.

0:47:300:47:34

How do Denmark, Norway and Finland, Belgium,

0:47:340:47:42

Austria done it for so long?

0:47:420:47:45

Most countries in the world are small.

0:47:450:47:51

Some of them have problems, but the majority don't.

0:47:510:47:54

What is the problem for Scotland because it is small?

0:47:550:47:59

Why is defence going to be a problem? We have model in Denmark.

0:47:590:48:05

Wouldn't Scotland be safer if it got rid of Trident?

0:48:050:48:12

I'm going to move forward.

0:48:120:48:14

I am going to ask you all to use your imagination.

0:48:140:48:18

What will you be doing on the morning of the referendum,

0:48:180:48:21

19th of September?

0:48:210:48:24

Congratulating the people of Scotland for voting yes.

0:48:240:48:32

A sigh of relief, thinking, that was close!

0:48:320:48:40

I would sit down with the Labour team in Wales

0:48:400:48:45

to make sure that Wales' voice will be strong

0:48:450:48:47

when we discuss where we go next.

0:48:470:48:50

I agree.

0:48:500:48:53

I will be celebrating victory for common sense in Scotland

0:48:530:48:57

and then planning for the future of Wales.

0:48:570:49:04

Thank you. Remember our programme on September 18.

0:49:040:49:06

For now, goodbye.

0:49:060:49:08

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