11/09/2014 Reporting Scotland

sunshine but the risk of a shower later this weekend. Thank you. That

is A number of banks say they'll move

their registered offices to England if there's a yes vote -

the First Minister says no jobs will go and accuses Better Together

of scaremongering. Dozens of Labour MPs arrive in

Scotland to campaign for the union - they're confronted by yes activists

who say it's too little too late. We are here because we are better

together. Scotland is on the cusp of making history.

In an extended programme we'll be looking at the issues and hearing

Also on the programme, Tributes are paid to a teenager from Paisley who

died after being hit by a car at a supermarket petrol station.

And Rangers fans are to be balloted on whether to boycott home matches

in protest at the way the club's being run.

Good evening. With less than a week until polling stations open across

both sides in the referendum debate have been disagreeing over costs and

prices in an independent Scotland. The financial institutions RBS,

Lloyds and Clydesdale said they'd all consider moving their registered

headquarters from here to London if there's a yes vote. But the

Scottish government said this is merely a technical procedure, and

would be eased if there were a currency union. Here's our business

They are some of the country's biggest banks, and they could be on

the move. To date, RBS, Lloyds TSB, and Clydesdale set out their plans

to deal with the consequences of a yes vote. In a statement, RBS said

that if Scotland votes for independence, it would be necessary

to move the bank's holding company and its primary operating company to

England. At the same time, it insists that it has no intentions of

moving its operations or thousands of jobs which are based. Meanwhile,

Lloyds TSB and Clydesdale said they were considering moving their

registered office is to England if there is a yes vote next week. I

would like to be clear that this is a technical procedure and it is not

our intention to move operations and jobs, and the technical issues could

be resolved by establishing a currency union between an

independent Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom, and the only

obstacle to that is the posturing of the United Kingdom political

parties. RBS was bailed out during the financial crisis, and is now

mostly owned by the UK Government. Today, the man who ordered that

rescue operation, Gordon Brown, warned of the potential damage if

the banks now choose to move. Standard Life has said jobs would be

lost in Scotland, and I say to Alex Salmond, you can try to dismiss some

of the warnings, some of the time, but you cannot dismiss all of the

warnings all of the time. The row over the economy has taken centre

stage in the referendum debate. Yesterday, Standard Life warned it

might move operations south, if there is a yes vote. To date, the

head of a leading investment group said an independent Scotland would

be a big success. I have said many times I think Scotland will be a

success, whether it is in the United Kingdom or not. It is really now up

to the people of Scotland to decide which way they want to go. So far,

the banks have only made plans. Much depends on the outcome of next

week's vote. And David Henderson is

in central Edinburgh for us now. A lot's been said

about contingency plans and what happens to jobs and capital

in an independent Scotlan, what can We have now seen hundreds of

businesses, some small, some large, weighing into the independence

debate. There has been vocal support for both sides in the debate, but

what we are reminded by these latest interventions is that businesses are

a bit like people, each and every one of them will approach this

issue, will approach the independence referendum, with one

question in mind, how does it affect them, how does it affect their

shareholders and their customers? The boss of Aberdeen Asset

Management, a global company which invests right around the world, has

said he is relaxed about the prospect of independence, whereas

RBS, Lloyds TSB, and Clydesdale much less so. The fear how they will be

affected. They are also reflecting the mood of their stakeholders, and

because RBS and Lloyds TSB are largely owned by the taxpayer and

the UK Government, as a result, they are of reflecting where they stand

on all sorts of issues, and are much more sensitive to these unresolved

political issues, currency, tax, wings which are still up for grabs

and opera negotiation, if there is a yes vote next week.

Some of the big retailers have been having their say.

An intervention today from John Lewis and also from Asda. They have

issued a warning about the disruption to business and the

prospect of costs and costs changing for Scottish customers. Asda have

ringed the alarm bell. They operate 61 stores and serve around 2 million

customers every week, and their boss has said that they are set up for

one market, with one currency, and the same attack system, and if that

changes over time, it is inevitable that that will lead to extra costs.

That was his warning. That said, the BBC has learned that the Prime

Minister has been pressing supermarket bosses over the past 24

hours to speak out on this issue, and it may be the reason why it Asda

have intervened now, but it will also be the reason why many yes and

pain will say that this a political intervention and therefore can be

discounted. In today's campaigning, the

First Minister Alex Salmond claimed Scotland was on the cusp of making

history by voting for independence. But Labour's Jim Murphy predicted

a silent majority of voters would Our political correspondent,

Glenn Campbell's been Arriving at Glasgow Central,

Labour's referendum express, each remote of MPs from across Britain,

helping the parties fight back against the campaign for

independence. Rebel elements from the Yes campaign hailed their

arrival. Scott ginned is unquestionably better together, but

this is also an emotional issue, about how we have all benefited from

being part of the union. They gathered by the statue of Donald

Dewar, who led Scotland to devolution, to make their case for a

no vote. A vote for now is a vote for stronger powers, for a stronger

Scotland. A yes vote is a vote for a huge risk, risk to jobs, to the

currency, and to the NHS. At times, Yes campaign is completed with

Labour for attention. The quiet speech to majority are starting to

stand up and be counted, and we will win next week, and we will not allow

the noisy nationalist rabble to get their way. Meanwhile, in Edinburgh,

one of the architects of devolution lent his support to the independence

campaign. I believe the powerful, the politicians, will say no, but I

believe the people will say yes. He was addressing the international

media, 17 years to the date that Scotland said yes to the current

Scottish parliament. The First Minister said that Scotland was now

ready to vote for independence. Scotland is on the cusp of making

history. The eyes of the world are upon Scotland. What the world is

seeing is an to, peaceful, energise debate. Scotland will vote yes next

Thursday. There were questions on everything from Ukraine to our

strikes against ices map and lots on the contingency plans of Scottish

banks. Does it not matter if RBS shifts its registered headquarters

to London? Quite clearly, we are putting forward a proposition where

these contingencies would be unnecessary. He said that banks

would not need to relocate if the English government dropped its

opposition to a currency union -- UK Government. For 300 years we have

been told what to do and how to do it, and how we should behave, and we

have had enough of it, and that is what this is about, and we are

saying now. We want to take our own destiny in our own hands. Almost 4

million people have registered to vote in the referendum. That is a

record number, and at Hollywood the getting ready to welcome the

world's media to watch the result. Our political editor Brian Taylor

is in Glasgow for us tonight. Brian, will

the financial debates we've heard today, some of it quite complicated,

actually impact on voters? I think they have an impact, the

question is the extent of the impact, and the extent they are

discounted by the people who are registered to vote in this quite

remarkable referendum will stop the expectation on the Yes campaign site

is that voters will discount a lot of the noise from the banks, in

which huge trust is not placed. On the other side, they know that

voters don't necessarily absorb every single detail, perhaps it

comes across in a generic sense as being a source of anxiety, a source

of concern, and therefore an argument for a no vote. You heard

there, the two sides of the argument, the sense of doubt from

one side, and the deliberate echoing of a phrase about empowerment and

the voice of the people. This wall, is structure that is being

constructed in Downing Street? The suggestion is that the comments made

by the supermarkets follow a meeting at Downing Street between the Prime

Minister and supermarket leaders. Alex Salmond has seized upon that.

Downing Street Inc has said that was a scheduled meeting and Scotland was

not mentioned. When Mr Salmond was not impressed by that. Mr Salmond

believes that the information about RBS was deliberately leaked to the

BBC, in order to stir up anxiety. He has invited the BBC to cooperate,

and they have said that they will cooperate with an enquiry. They have

said they were using normal journalistic methods, and standing

by their story. To debate these issues I was joined

here earlier by Dennis Canavan, chairman of Yes Scotland,

and businessman John Boyle And when I say "debate", well,

that's putting it mildly. I started by asking Mr Boyle

if it was unionist politicians contributing to uncertainty

by opposing a currency union. Nothing could be further from. In

the last couple of days we have had almost an avalanche of economic

alarm, you cannot dispute the facts. I think that Alex Salmond and

John Swinney can't dance around their briefcases any longer.

Companies like the RBS, and the Clydesdale here in Glasgow have said

that they will relocate their headquarters. In the case of the

Clydesdale to Bradford. That is not a technical matter. When you move

your headquarters, you move control of your business into England, and

that is your tax point. In one simple way, all of those banks who

have paid billions of pounds of taxes to the United Kingdom, which

Scotland get a share, that would be lost to Scotland. My point is they

feel they have two bits these contingency arrangements in place,

because of the financial uncertainty created by the facts... We are going

to lose billions of pounds in tax. This is not scaremongering. This is

just exactly... There can be no distancing ourselves from this, it

is an economic reality that we have got to face. It is not about

uncertainty, it is a factual state of affairs. People are worried about

their mortgages and pensions. Are they not right to be? People are

worried, but let's put this into perspective. We have seen a lot of

this irresponsible scaremongering before. We saw it at the time of the

1979 referendum, and we saw at the time of the 1997 referendum, all the

prophets of doom and gloom saying that the sky was going to fall in.

None of that happened. The Scottish economy flourished since

demolition, and I think with more economic powers, and more powers for

business, it would in fact make business even more successful. This

business about changing the headquarters, George Mathieson, who

is a former chairman and chief executive of the RBS has pointed out

very accurately that this is simply a matter of changing the brass plate

from Edinburgh down to London. It is. One at a time. It is not going

to shift operations. Jobs will stay in Edinburgh Edinburgh Rock workers

are seen to be more competitive, more efficient, and staff costs are

more superior. They will pay their taxes in London. Scotland will not

get a share of that revenue. We are not scaremongering. This will not

happen overnight. A shortish period of time, jobs will move to England.

Not only that, but the tax base will erode, and you cannot avoid the fact

that it is not a brass plate, it is not a technical thing. In the words

of taxation, it is management and control. Your tax point is where you

manage your control, and that is where your headquarters are, and

that will mean there will be no taxes for Scotland and you will lose

jobs. Fact. You cannot avoid economic reality. In an independent

Scotland it will be up to the Scottish Parliament to determine the

tax resume in which Scotland operates, including the taxation of

financial operations which take place in Scotland.

I would have the tax evasion which is taking place left, right and

centre, because of the mismanagement of the UK... You will not have, if

we vote yes, and become a separate and disengaged nation, they will not

be a single bank headquartered in Scotland. Fact. Absolute nonsense.

The bank of Scotland, Clydesdale bank of Royal Bank Of Scotland have

said they are moving. Can I just ask you this. These are contingency

plans. Presumably, if there is no formal monetary union. But that's

not to say there's not going to be a formal monetary union, does it? We

don't know this. You know as a fact, when the governor of the Bank of

England, and the head of a particular parties say it is

strategically impossible to have monetary union when you control the

taxes, the interest rates... He said no such thing. It is an illusion. It

will not happen. It is not scaremongering but an economic

fact. You don't understand the difference between a currency union

and fiscal union. I certainly do. No you don't. You can determine, within

Scotland, whole range of taxation measures including measures to help

business and might help workers because I'm concerned that this

debate should not simply be about big businessman like yourself, but

about workers rights. I want to see more work opportunities. Can I ask

you this? Look at the workers faces whose jobs will be relocated to

Bradford when Clydesdale Bank moves. I'm not about business but about the

economic prosperity of Scotland. I agree with you about the taxation. I

would come down upon Amazon, the people who avoid taxes. So do not

lump me in with that. I am looking after the jobs, Scottish jobs. You

will have an exodus of jobs and whether you like it or not because

companies are going to have to relocate to England. Let him

answer. You must think the working class of Scotland are stupid because

hundreds of thousands, more and more including traditional Labour

supporters and trade unionists coming over to our side. Why?

Because they want social justice, job security, trade union rights, a

fairer Scotland, and more prosperous Scotland, but also instead of

spending billions of pounds on things like Trident and cutting

benefits. I am passionately for workers rights, I am very pro-trade

unions, I am committed to all that. What I am not committed to is the

whole level of uncertainty which will jeopardise Scotland. Tell

Alistair Darling to stop this nonsense about refusing to face up

to the reality of a currency union. There is not a possibility in the

history of the universe, when you have the bank of England Governor

and all three parties saying... He said nothing of the sort. You are

distorting things. You can't dance around your briefcase. That is what

Alex Salmond has been doing. A currency union is not possible...

Yes, it is. England would dictate interest rates. A currency union is

possible. And the Governor of the Bank of England said it wasn't

compatible with sovereignty. As viable currency union, what is most

important today has happened, Britain's most respected retailer,

John Lewis, backed up by Asda, just today, have also said what is going

to happen, you will have a situation where prices in Scotland invariably

will rise. Nonsense. Tesco said the opposite. Gentlemen, this has been a

fascinating debate. Thank you both very much indeed. I didn't have very

much to do there at all, but it was right to hear the argument on both

sides. Thank you very much for joining us. Believe it or not, the

pair of them went off practically hand-in-hand and very happily.

All this week, our roving referendum correspondent

has been dispatched to different parts of the country to speak to

This is the Stirling University campus, an oasis of calm compared to

your studio, Sally. This city could be an interesting one to watch on

the night. Yes campaigners feel confident about what they are

hearing your doorsteps but Better Together campaigners say they are

also hearing some good things about what it might mean for them so an

interesting one to watch. With me as a man who's been looking through his

crystal ball trying to figure out what Scotland might look like in 20

year's time. You have held a conference to discuss what it might

look like. Why do that? I have been obsessed with the debate. I realised

a few months ago that I was going to miss it and they will be the

Star-Ledger full spit it winds make most of the time, but I will miss

the sheer excitement of it. I thought to myself, how will I look

back on this? How will the rest of Scottish society look back on a

historic moment? So what did you find? What were the key things which

came out of it? We have two days looking at both outcomes. There was

an extraordinary imagination which went into a whole bunch of talks

examining in a science-fiction way on how we might look back 20 is

later. The most memorable section was a piece of youth Theatre from

BBC Scotland where first-time voters imagine themselves, my age, in their

mid-30s, looking back on this, and they came up with some extraordinary

insights. I was thinking about them this week because, even in the two

weeks since this event, the debate feels very different. You say it

feels more intense? Not only that, but not only young voters,

first-time voters, people are not usually engaged in politics, have

been encouraged by it. They have been seriously engaged to start

asking questions. Scotland has a choice. Scotland does not decide but

the market decides. Captains of finance will decide what we are

allowed to choose and I think about those young people. Thanks,

obviously one opinion there but what I can tell you is the polls have

suggested certainly over the last few weeks but older voters are

perhaps more difficult to convince as part of the Yes Campaign. I went

into the gymnasium to find out if that was true here at the

university. These are young at heart enjoying the retirement, some are

watching the referendum debate eagerly, others anxiously. James

Robertson feels it's time for change. My main reason for voting

yes is a bit like the way Britain is going. I don't like government

getting your not voting for. He says many of his friends are more

fearful. They are persuaded by the negatives and there's a subtle

advertising campaign to make people feel anxious. If you generate

anxiety, people will say, how do I get out of this anxiety? If they

vote no, the anxiety would go away. Others say it's more to do with

facts. The yes campaign and not answered any of the questions

factually. We need figures to make up my mind and I've already made up

my mind. There have been no answers on currency, pensions, defence, take

away Faslane and billions of pounds of costs which somebody has got to

pay for at the end, so that is why I am a firm no. This MP believes last

few days have been better for the No Campaign. I'm talking about the

referendum. She says older voters are not just worried by the Roman

future. Many older voters are also interested in what it means for

their children and grandchildren. What we have also found, though, is

that young voters are realising that this is not for them. An army of

foot soldiers work their way through this estate in Bannockburn, feeling

confident. This area is home to the former Labour MP and chairman. This

issue transcends party politics. I am asking people to vote for a

better Scotland. Yes, a more prosperous Scotland, and, above all,

a fairer Scotland. Over 40% of voters backed Labour at the last

general election. A year later, the SNP grabbed a seat of them in the

Holyrood elections. Having been the scene of many major independent

battles in Scotland, Stirling could be so again in one weeks time. We

will be back in the next half an hour and I'll be speaking to

campaigners from both sides. Thanks very much, Laura.

You're watching Reporting Scotland from the BBC.

Still to come on tonight's programme.

A central topic of the independence debate over the

decades but just how much of a role does oil still play in the debate?

And would Scotland's Olympic athletes be in Team GB or a new

Team Scotland at Rio in 2016 if there's a Yes vote?

The trial of a Midlothian man accused of

murdering his wife and son has begun at the High Court in Edinburgh.

33-year-old Garry Lockhart has admitted killing Janet Lockhart

and two-year-old Michael in December last year.

He offered a guilty plea to murdering his wife and the culpable

homicide of his son, on the grounds of diminished responsibility.

Janet Lockhart should have been celebrating his 30th birthday

tomorrow. Instead, her body and the body of her two-year-old son were

found in a bedroom at their home. The court also heard how Garry

Lockhart had sent a letter to a former colleague from prison and

part of that letter said, "what I did is terrible. I snapped. I wish I

hadn't been drunk that night. It would not have happened." The court

heard how he described his son as the perfect son, and is only thought

after Janet died was for them to be with her. When officers arrived at

the scene they found a note saying, "how could I kill Janet and

Michael? They were my life and I love them. Court her family sobbed

as I had the evidence and her family told the court, one manager of a

daughter and grandson, the next minute, you have neither. -- one

minute. The trial continues. Police are still investigating

the precise details of what happened when a 17-year-old girl

died after being hit by a car at The family of Eilish Herron from

Paisley described her as a lovely Flowers laid today by friends and

family of Eilish Herron struggling to believe she died yesterday here

at this busy petrol station in Linwood. A special message from a

netball team mates. She was passionate about netball, playing

and coaching younger girls, her dedication recognised in this film

made when she won the Young sportsperson of the year 2013. If

you are interested in sport or want to get fit, such a good sport.

Police say they are still investigating exactly what happened

here yesterday afternoon. Eilish died as she was filling up her car

with petrol, hit by a car would have been filling up at the pump in front

of her. And then apparently suddenly reversed. The driver of that car,

were said to be elderly, is not hurt and today ASDA issued a statement

describing it as a tragic accident and passing on their sympathies to

the family involved. In a statement today, her family said: She had so

much to live for and we will miss her terribly. The 17-year-old left

Saint Andrews Academy in Paisley in the summer passing a driving test

couple of weeks ago. The headteacher said today that Eilish had been a

great role model and her death is a tragic loss.

The new owner of Ferguson Shipbuilder has started to

re-hire staff who were made redundant when the Port Glasgow yard

Clyde Blowers Capital chairman Jim McColl said 30

of the 70 people who had been laid off were now back at work.

Getting back to work. To date, said -- today, 30 of the 70 workers were

brought back to work. He says there is a real opportunity to rebuild the

business. I thought it was a shame to see the last commercial shipyard

go into administration. I think we have the skills to build this into a

successful business. We have done it before, and that is where I get my

enjoyment out of. Seeing businesses like this build back up. Good brand

names, fantastic heritage, and a fabulous future. This is a far cry

from the picture here last month. Just four weeks ago, workers. They

were never coming back. It is 100% better. Everyone was at a low when

it happened. It was on a Friday morning. It is great news. Mr Kohl

spoke to was for half an hour this morning -- Mr McColl. We are all

looking forward to the future. He plans initially to invest nearly ?8

million here, perhaps up to 60 million in the future. He aims to

grow the business. He will continue shipbuilding but also sees

opportunities in manufacturing and the oil and gas industries. There

may not be much activity here at the yard to date, but by November, there

will be 80 people working here, and by early next year, over 100, and in

the next three to five years, the workforce here will have quadrupled.

The new owner says that, with investment, he is confident that the

orders will keep coming. Rangers fans could be about to

boycott their club's home matches. Recent controversies

including the news that naming rights at Ibrox have been sold for

?1, have led to one supporters trust saying it will ballot their members

on staying away from home games. And as Phil Goodlad reports they

want more fans to follow suit: It win tomorrow night, and Rangers

will be top of the championship. The focus yet again is on matters off

the field. It emerged recently that the naming rights at Ibrox had been

sold for ?1, and that the director had been Richard with a businessman

who was wanted by Interpol. Some funds are now calling for a boycott

of the club. If we feel that the feedback we are getting and the

amount people are asking is that action is going to be well

supported, then we would have too, as a group that has members, react

to those wishes. 1500 fans make up these clubs. ?450,000 for the rest

of the season. The group wants other fans to join them, at a time when

Rangers are looking to raise ?4 million of working capital. The fans

have given these people 100,000 season tickets over three years, so

for anyone to suggest that Rangers fans, if a boycott, are in anyway

trying to drive that filename in the Coffin, they are looking in the

wrong place. The BBC asked Rangers to comment, but they have declined

to do so. The fans anger is nothing new. Boycotting matches is a very

different type of protest. When a club like Celtic comes

calling, you don't say no - that's the view of the club's

newest acquisition, John Guidetti. FIFA allowed

the Swedish striker to complete his season-long deal - on loan from

Manchester City after the transfer deadline, but he's reluctant to be

likened to his countryman, I think it is very harsh to be

compared to someone like Henrik Larsson, because what he did was

amazing, and I can do just a small toenail of what he did, it would be

amazing. Scotland's Olympians could face

the choice of switching to a new Team Scotland

or remaining part of Team GB if An independent report commissioned

by the Scottish government found there would be no obvious barriers

to Scotland fielding an Olympic The Scotland fans in Germany this

week, proving that sometimes sport and politics can mix. The debate is

everywhere, including the locker room. If it is a yes vote, the

athletes would have a choice to make. If Scotland became

independent, I would imagine I would be playing for Scotland. I haven't

got that much about it, because I don't think it is looking to likely.

That was last week, and the indications are it may be close.

What might the applications be? Sport such as football and rugby

will largely be unaffected. They are already recognised internationally

through their governing bodies, but here on the track and in other

Olympic disciplines the change may be felt. It is an issue being taken

very seriously in Scotland. Sport is unlikely to polarise opinion the way

other issues have in this debate, but historically it has provided a

platform for Scottish people to celebrate their identity. This is a

point underlined this year at the Commonwealth Games. Scotland hailed

new heroes, but could they keep them if the vote is yes? For Scotland to

stay as part of the UK programme, switching to a Scottish setup would

be too much of a gamble. Scotland isn't able to provide as with the

funding and facilities we need to compete at this level, and if

Scotland think that they will be able to do that, then why have they

not done it up until now? One man who has plied his trade in both

England and Scotland doesn't think the funding facilities argument is

valid. Nobody talks about the fact that other athletes train in

America. The money goes where the talent is. We have the talent here,

and we already pay for these things through the national lottery, and

there is no suggestion that athletes would not be able to use bases and

facilities in another country. Britain's greatest ever Olympian Sir

Chris Hoy triumphed under two flags. If the country vote "yes",

Scotland's new heroes will have two nail their colours to the mast. That

is all from the sport. Let's see how

the weather is shaping up. It was 22 Celsius today. This

evening, some late sunshine to enjoy it, but those clear skies do mean an

early dip in temperature tonight. Up to midnight, and from midnight

onwards the mist and fog will develop. More widespread than last

night. Temperatures in town, double digits, in the countryside, somewhat

cooler. Mist and fog will take a little longer to lift concurred with

this morning. The day will be dry once again, with variable amounts of

cloud, perhaps more than we have seen today. Having said that, still

dry and pleasantly warm. Always a little cooler around the coast.

Certainly some thicker cloud or the Western Isles. Inland, some

sunshine, some decent spells of sunshine, and cooler and cloudier

for the Northern Isles. It should stay dry. The rest of the afternoon

and into the evening, staying dry and settled. Some lovely evening

sunshine. During the overnight period, if we look at the bigger

picture, high pressure continues to hold on, but there will be hardly a

breath of wind, and certainly as we had through towards Saturday, it

will be another dry day, but more mist and fog clinging on towards the

East Coast and up towards the Northern Isles. More cloud towards

the north of the country. A slight easterly drift. That is enhanced on

Sunday. You can see the tightening isobars. A more easterly wind, that

means thicker cloud, and somewhat cooler. The best of the brighter

weather towards the south. Still pleasantly warm, with temperatures

up towards the high teens. Really rather dry.

Back to our extended coverage of the referendum debate.

Since it first came ashore in the nineteen seventies, it's been the

country's biggest single asset and central to calls for independence.

But just how much of a role does oil still play

Our Aberdeen reporter Kevin Keane has been looking at some

That first trickle will grow, and by 1977, supplies it should amount to

at least one quarter of the oil we require as a nation. Since day one,

there has been no shortage of predictions about the future of oil.

The Queen's assertion was not that far off, with that field accounting

for nearly 50% of consumption. Oil is a business that is notoriously

difficult to predict. As we have seen recently, there are wide

variations in claims about its future. It plays an important role

in what lies ahead for Scotland. Perhaps the most helpful way to

begin an assessment is with the past. Since 1975, North Sea oil

production has grown rapidly. It dipped along with the economic

downturn, from around 1989, but then continue to rise. The peak came in

1999, and since then, it has been continually falling. Last year,

production was at less than one third than the peak level. Oil and

gas in the next 30 or 40 years is a massive potential impact on how the

Scottish economy does. So what about the future? Sir Ian Wood, a

respected oil tycoon, predicted that there is 16 billion barrels of oil

left. Oil and gas UK said between 12 and 24 billion barrels. The office

of budget responsibility is bidding that at 10 billion barrels. Why such

a wide variation? It depends on much. The cost of extracting the

oil, whether it is where companies want to place their investments in a

worldwide market. You might think, well, if we could actually properly

reserve -- resolve any of these factors it could be higher than we

currently predict, but it is subject to so many variables, it is

impossible, so anyone who says that they can tell you precisely what

that number is, is obviously not telling you the truth. So what is it

going to be worth? This is an interesting sadistic. When

production peaked, the Treasury took in ?3.3 billion. Last year, which

must -- much less oil, taxation was higher. On top of that is top -- tax

on the supply chain. So what about the future? Well, it is full of

contradictions. There are record levels of investment, but

exploration is at an all-time low. Addiction is very, but it is an in

predictable industry. Forecasts may turn out to be accurate, but they

could also be wildly wrong. For the better or for the worse.

And Kevin now joins us from the harbour in Aberdeen now.

This is the focal point for the industry. At least on the shore.

Let's discuss the issues that we mentioned in that report. With two

people who work in the industry actively now. They also set on both

sides of the debate. Hannah, we have heard over the last few days,

interventions from many people, who are all saying that they are

supporting the No campaign. Is anybody in the industry supporting

the Yes campaign? Absolutely. I deal with a lot of different companies, a

lot of people from across the industry, and certainly people I

speak to, there is a significant movement to the yes vote, and well

we have to respect the views of those companies and those people,

British petrol would not have invested so much into our current

industry if they did not have confidence. We absolutely believe

that there will be an industry in Scotland for 35 years or more. What

we really need is stability, and that is not something we have seen

from previous governments. We have called first ability. But the

transition will not produce stability? I don't see why not. The

two governments came together, and they are committed to working

together in the event of a yes vote, I think we have to take that at face

value. Companies like British petrol operate all over the world, in

places like Iraq and Libya, whether our lots of instability and

challenges. The industry has seen lots of challenges over the years.

Some of these challenges have been caused by the Westminster

government. This year, we had a tax charge that is being considered to

go against the industry. Clearly the stability they are

talking about, the UK Government has created instability over the last

year or so because of the tax review. We've heard reports meant

that a lot of companies have held off from investing in the North Sea.

Is the UK providing stability? We haven't seen anything yet in terms

of instability. We are talking about different tax regimes in the North

Sea and different regulatory bodies in the North Sea. I work in a

production delivery department which is trying to collaborate to get

everyone working together, sharing knowledge, and getting a really good

collaboration. We want to see more of that between companies as well as

within companies and that's not going to happen if we are making

these new resumes. It's an international industry and the

companies work internationally and they will surely go where the oil

is. Yes, but we are crating competition now and that's not

something we should be doing. -- creating. You are right about

instability. People do want stability in the marketplace. Thank

you both very much indeed for joining us. That is the view from

within the industry from people who worked in the oil in Aberdeen.

Kevin, thanks very much. Of course,

September 18th isn't going to be the first time Scotland has gone to the

polls to decide how it's governed. We've been here twice

before with referendums Julie Peacock has been looking back

at the events leading up to Theirs is a debate which has been

going on for more than just a few months. In fact, it hasn't even been

years, the generations. But let's start with a swinging 60s when the

idea of devolution began to gain the meant. Winifred Ewing, 30,000, 397.

It was Labour 's safest seat but when Winifred won in 1957, it marked

a change in Scottish politics. And then oil was added to the debate.

Today is a milestone in the history of this country. An energy producing

nation. What will be get from it? When it was discovered off

Scotland's coast in 1970, the nationalists saw a surge in support.

The SNP has become a force to be reckoned with. The by-election

victory gave a hint of things to come. In the general election of

October 1974, the SNP returned 11 MPs and took 30% of Scotland's

about. Labour 's attitude at the time was ambivalent, some members

against the idea, others campaigning for it. But the popularity of the

nationalists came to people 's minds. We demand a Scottish

assembly. And the Conservatives promised change. A No Vote does not

imply a disloyalty to the principle of devolution. It was a Labour

government to agree to hold a referendum and a Scottish assembly

on the condition 40% of the electorate had to vote in favour for

it to become a reality. 40% is a reasonable figure to obtain and if

there was not 40% forward, the claims made by the supporters of

devolution turn out to be wrong. In March 1979, Scotland went to the

polls. We believe in this country of ours, people are adult enough and

well-equipped enough to be able to take part in a government of their

own affairs. This act was born simply out of a desire to save

Labour seats in Scotland. People are consistently said they wanted the

sort of devolution we are offering and when it comes to the referendum

on March one, we are confident the Scottish people will come out and

say they want the act government legislated for. We will go down the

motorway to a separate state, the journey from which many of us don't

want to embark. 230,937. The result was a majority in favour of

devolution. 52% to 48%. Turnout was over 63%, meaning 33% of Scots had

voted for a change. We face an interesting but a good situation and

great problems for the government after this referendum result. The

SNP withdrew their support from Labour and Parliament and the

government collapsed. In 1979, Margaret Thatcher's Conservative

Party was voted in and it would be another generation before Scotland

was asked again how it wanted to be run.

Many of the young people eligible to vote in this referendum won't

But tonight, BBC Scotland hosts the biggest

debate the country has ever seen with up to 8,000 first-time voters.

Would a way to go until Scotland side, polls suggest it could go

either way. It means the 100,016 and 17-year-olds who have the vote for

the first time, could decide next week 's results. The BBC has invited

many of them here to the Hydro in Glasgow. This crowd of around 7500

young people are coming to question both sides of the independence

debate. Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson, Patrick Harvie and George

Galloway who has been campaigning for a No Vote. That is the big

debate tonight at 9pm on BBC1 Scotland.

CHEERING Let's return to our roving

referendum correspondent Laura Bicker who's been in Stirling for

us tonight and is still there now. With me are two ladies who tell me

one of them can't get their feet into any more high heels because

they have been hitting the streets of the campaign. Miriam, you work

for the Yes Campaign and have never been involved in politics before so

why get involved now? My story is very common, to see people of never

been involved in politics, never been a member of the political

party, that's my background. I think there are certain appeals to this

movement. I was brought to it through issues so much bigger than

any one political party, social justice, foreign policy, democracy,

elliptical culture and representative of how you can

represent a country and their values which binds them together. That's my

background. I think that's very common in this movement. Certainly,

a lot of people have never been involved in politics before and

don't have any intentions of joining a political party because it's so

much bigger than that. You have been on the doorsteps for Better

Together, but has it become more intense? We've had a lot of intense

questions from the start. People are engaged absolutely both from the

doorstep interview. We have had many many people on the doorstep coming

out with us night after night after night never involved in anything

like this before. There was a real movement growing behind the No,

Thanks campaign. People are talking about bread-and-butter issues, and

there are still some unanswered questions like what currency with

their wages and pensions be paid in? They are concerned about the

financial markets, what happened over the last couple of days, and

when the markets go down, the people who are worst off suffer the most.

They are realising we do have the best of both worlds in Scotland, a

strong Scottish Parliament which can deliver with new powers on the way,

but also the safety of Westminster and the national banking system.

Maybe in certain areas on the doorsteps, the Stirling banjo, you

might be finding different arguments? Yes, always two sides to

every debate. Before you get the general questions, this notion there

are too many unanswered questions and now you are seeing more specific

questions people engaging in that debate and it's beautiful to see

that. Question is personal to them. With young people, a lot of them are

speaking about how to be preserved free tuition fees in an independent

Scotland? The labour market, how can the enshrined labour rights in the

Constitution? We are seeing real engagement and activism on the

doorstep and its really inspiring. I think, as well, we are seeing a

shift away from the media focus on Alex Salmond, the SNP, nationalism,

and has only negative connotations. A lot of people would speak about, I

don't like Alex Salmond, the SNP, but what we're seeing now, people

see it's bigger than that. You would say something completely different,

people talking about Alex Salmond. Yes, but they also talk about

bread-and-butter issues. I spoke to a couple of the day, they did not

want to take a poster for their windows because they were worried it

would get smashed. Their grandson works in Edinburgh and his job is at

risk. They want security for the future generations but what the best

of both worlds, the things we can deliver as the UK. Thank you both

very much. Two different views. The debate in sterling will continue.

Tomorrow, you can join me in Elgin. Just before we go tonight, let's

return to our political editor Brian Another hectic day

on the campaign trail. Tremendously passionate. We had

those closing remarks in that discussion, the sense of anxiety.

Better Together are seeking to project a positive position, saying

the anxiety about finance is a reason to stay with the union and

they believe it indicates there will be problems in funding the NHS. That

is countered by their opponents. Those images from 1979 were

remarkable. I remember that. I do to! What we're hearing from the Yes

Scotland, it won't be like 19 97, but 1979, extremely close. They

believe sufficient confidence that they can come through and get a Yes

Vote. Only the people will decide. The undecided people, briefly, have

a job to do. There is a section of those and a spectrum across the

whole of Scotland. Thanks very much, Brian Taylor.

I'll be back with the headlines at 8.00pm and the late bulletin

We have got teams all over the UK. I want this story blown wide open.