26/08/2014 Scotland 2014

It's the night after the night before.

So did the big debate change how anyone intends to vote?

Nearly a million viewers in Scotland tuned in last night to watch

Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling shouting at each other, often both

We'll have our own, very civilised, debate with the directors of both

The richest 1% of Scots pay 20% of income tax.

Would they stay and pay their share in an independent Scotland?

While over 100 Scottish business leaders have signed

a letter saying the business case for independence has not been made.

Is big business an asset for Better Together?

Yes campaigners can't keep the smiles off their faces today

as their man has been generally acknowledged to be the victor

But there is a difference between winning an argument

Do they now have enough momentum to overcome what is still

a significant gap in the polls in just over three weeks time?

Was it a good morning for Alistair Darling and the Better Together

campaign? He woke up to be remind -- reminded the Alex Salmond had been

declared the winner of last lap's debate in a poll of around 500

people. And there stands the victor. The same poll also said the debate

had no bearing on how people would vote, so was all the build-up to

last night and the showdown just theatre? Stop playing games! You

must have a plan B! If we win the referendum, would you... Alex, Alex,

nobody can hear. A lot of people were listening. By tomorrow morning,

there is registered by post will be able to start casting their vote.

This is the largest retirement village in Scotland, and there is it

to call each high number of postal voters here but with their ballot

papers being sent out today, they could be amongst some of the first

people in Scotland to say yes or no to independence. I thought it was at

bark or more a debate. -- I thought it was a debacle. You couldn't hear

what they were saying. I don't think a debate like that is going to

change people 's minds. The things discussed were not on a good level,

in my opinion. Do these things matter when you make up your mind? I

am still undecided, to be honest. Totally undecided. And last night

didn't help me make a decision. How many changed your mind as a result

of the debate? Absolutely no one. OK. Hands were on show here in

Lanarkshire. These younger voters were glued to the debate. Who thinks

that the debate last night will have influenced the vote in general? Are

younger people more influenced by it? Definitely. TV is so... The

16-year-old would watch a TV debate. You'd rather what ship on TV than

read about it. -- you'd rather watch it on TV. What about social media?

It is a huge platform for it. It is good for propaganda and young

people. Facebook is flooded from end is flooded with things right now.

This professor has been studying the trends. I have seen a couple of

trends saying, yes, that is me decided right now, but people on the

whole people on Twitter or people who had made their mind up already.

Where are the undecided people? And how are the campaign is going to

reach them? We have Blair Jenkins and Blair

McDougall in the studio today. Thank you for coming in. I'm sure you've

been having a good day, Blair Jenkins, as Alex Salmond seems to

have been the winner of the debate but it doesn't seem to have changed

people 's voting intentions. When I am not in the studios, I'm out on

the street, knocking on doors and talking to people. And talking to

people today, people watched the debate, and all the momentum is

towards us. We are very pleased with the response we are getting. The

momentum was with us prior to the debate and events within the last 24

hours have helped us. What happened with Alistair Darling last night? He

needs a new song. I think what happened is that the sheltie Alex

Salmond that we see week in and week out on TV turned up. The undecided

voters hit the nail on the head - he can win shouting match, he does that

regulate, but that is different to winning an argument. Persuasion is

different to performance. People turned up, desperate for answers to

the questions, and they didn't get them. When they started talking

about the currency and independent Scotland, the audience actually

groaned. You could hear Alex Salmond grown and the Nationalists grown. I

accept the Nationalists don't care what currency we use. They will vote

yes even if they believe we will be worse off, but for most of us, we

want to know what currency is going to be funding our public services,

what our pensions are going to be worth, and what we all pay for our

weekly shopping. It matters. Blair Jenkins will tell us we should stop

asking the question because he knows it is important. I don't think we

saw much of Alistair Darling's debating skills. We got into big

subjects last night, like the threat to public services, if they -- if

there were to be a no vote. And the need to find new jobs. That is

something people are talking to me about today. Let's talk about the

job creating powers in Scotland. Even as Alex Salmond was talking

about the NHS, you had to concede that health care is pretty much

fully devolved from the Scottish bollard and he is in charge of it,

not anybody in Westminster. No one is disputing health policy is

devolved, but funding isn't devolved. The funding for Scottish

Parliament and government is determined at Westminster. And as

they are cutting in Westminster and as they intend to, and in Wales we

have seen a cut in real terms in health spending, and we have to

understand with a Tory government, who think that public services are

an unnecessary expense, that will only go downhill. They talked about

more powers for the Scottish Parliament if there was a no vote.

Better Together will have to get it together in what is being offered. I

find it extraordinary the whole case for independence rests on things

that are already devolved. Alex Salmond asked what more job-creating

powers will be devolved, but you might ask about what educating

powers will be devolved. They have the power to create jobs. He

pretended he didn't have any powers. This whole debate rests on to make

things, seemingly, which are completely within the control of the

Scottish Parliament. It was extraordinary that after three weeks

since the debate where he didn't mention the NHS at all, where he had

been trying to scare people about privatisation, he was forced to say

that there is no way that Scotland could be. Private eye is the NHS

because just that morning the doctor in the hospital in Newcastle who had

started the whole SNP lies said it was just simply not true what he was

saying and what Blair Jenkins's campaign was saying. People in

Scotland are interested in how we are going to grow our economy, and

create more jobs for young people. Talking to people of my age and

older... Did Alex Salmond tell people last night? I think we did

last night. We can invest more in childcare which gets people back

into the working economy. Create more jobs. We can incentivise

companies to do more in terms of research and develop in. We can do

lots of things but what people of my age and older are saying is that it

is the younger generation, children and grandchildren, they are voting

yes, which is moving older people. What a fantastic gift to bequeath to

the younger generation, the gift of their own country. Who is moving in

your own direction? The last two opinion polls which we have made, we

have an organisation and political focus on reaching undecided voters.

Again, the two examples he gave as a case for independence were childcare

and business. Things which were devolved already! Thank you very

much. Much of the talk around the

referendum has been about inequality in Scotland and we've heard calls

for a more even playing field. So how do Scotland's super

rich see the debate? If an independent Scotland

did try to raise taxes would Our economics correspondent Colletta

Smith has been finding out. Butler. The world of Butler service

isn't consigned to costume drama. To state in a hotel like this, you'd

have to have a certain amount of expendable income anyway. So the

people who requested a plus service and book a hotel based on its Butler

service tend to be the super wealthy anyway. The role of the Butler is to

assist the guest in order to make their experience here in Edinburgh

the best it can be. That can be from helping them run their errands, to

ironing their shirts and polishing their shoes, ready for them to use.

We also quite recently had a guest who didn't have enough time to pick

and pay for his engagement ring, so one of our Butler team had to go out

and get his engagement ring. And, of course, there was a happy ending to

that story because she said yes. Thank you. This kind of life of

luxury is beyond the pay of most of us put the number of wealthy people

living in Scotland, investing, spending and paying taxes, impacts

the whole economy. At the moment, across the UK, the top 1% of earners

are paying 20% of the income tax because they are paying at a much

higher rate. Whatever your views on whether that is fair or not, it

makes that 1%, the super rich, very important to the way Scotland would

function as an independent country. Our clients are important to the

committee because they are investing their savings in Scottish

businesses. So, if life looks more profitable on the other side of the

border, would it be easy for the super-rich to move themselves and

their money? Yes, it is simple. Theoretically, money can move quite

quickly. There are plenty of people at the top end of the earnings scale

who are excited about the benefits of independence. Hello, come on in.

This man runs an IT firm and his elegant mansion isn't too far away.

I don't personally mind paying more tax. If that's what it takes to be

able to create more opportunity because it isn't the percentage of

the pie that is important to me. It is how big is the pie and how can I

see is a piece of it? Others among the super-rich would mind paying

more taxes. The rate at the moment, the 40%, I think is fair. I don't

think there is much hope for increasing that, that would get

people upset. Do you think it is likely a Scottish government would

or could increase taxes at the higher end of the spectrum? I

honestly believe that taxes can only go one way, up. So, you might be

able to take corporation tax down, but overall, the tax take would have

to go up in order for us to survive. The thing about changing income tax

rates is that people are a lot more mobile than companies. It is easier

for individuals to relocate across the border if there is a load income

tax rate on the other side. A few years ago, we lived in the South of

France rather than in the US or UK, and one of the reasons we chose that

is that, actually, because of the tax structure down there, it was a

more attractive regime for us. We also lived in the Bahamas. So, tax

regimes can affect your decision-making, no doubt. The

government in Scotland and the UK might need to compete to hang onto

the super-rich. The weather might not even a greatest. My Australian

wife occasionally complains about that too. On balance, it is a very

good place to live. And if you can couple that with appropriate

incentives for entrepreneurs, then I definitely believe you can attract

people to Scotland. An independent Scottish government would have to

tread a delicate line between making a system which serves the

super-rich, and sticking to promises of creating a fairer Scotland. Those

defined goals might not be so easy to smooth out.

Joining me now from Southampton is Eben Wilson,

And in the studio the Herald's political commentator

Is, does the ease with which the super-rich can slip across a border

into the rest of the UK mean that it would never dare put up income tax?

Not at all. I think in an independent Scotland you will see

tax broadly rising. Not to the extent of other economies such as

Denmark Norway. That doesn't lead to an exodus of businessmen, if they

were only interested in tax, they would all be living in Romania, for

example. It just isn't like that. There are plenty of wealthy people

in Norway, that is because the Norwegian economy is very productive

and very dynamic. It is at these economies that are readily feature

the top in the World Bank's list of countries where it is best to start

a business. But the example you've used is slightly disingenuous,

because what you would do is create a situation where it would be easy

to domicile yourself in the United Kingdom. It would be the ease with

which you could do it that would make it tempting. It depends on the

type of tax regime both sides of the border. Norway has the lowest in the

world, its GDP per head is high. It sailed through the banking crisis

without any trouble at all. That is what smaller, more dynamic economies

can achieve. Evan, you find yourself on the same side

can achieve. Evan, you find yourself on the as the independence debate

with a, both yes supporters, but you would both have a different view

about taxation. Can it be lowered? Of course, you would just have to

cut some spending. It is not that difficult to find spending you can

cut in Scotland. The key is you are trying to release entrepreneurial

energy. You want a small, middle and attract big corporations to make

Scotland grow very fast. But she would end up with a similar problem,

it is very easy to slip across the border in and out of an independent

Scotland. We support tax competition, that is why you want

it. It shows that tax competition leads to a squashing down of tax

rates. Lower tax rates to create growth. We want to lower taxes to

create jobs. The idea of business going across the border is

ridiculous. Businesses go where the market is. That is where businesses

go, but the... No, the point that was being made was that the

individuals who run the businesses can find it very easy to run them

anywhere. Not necessarily, businessmen are like anyone else,

they like to live in a stable, positive society, they don't want to

be sticking around tax havens. That is not the key issue, the key issue

is where is the best environment for an economy to grow, for businesses

to flourish, that doesn't necessarily coincide of low

taxation. What would happen is that a businessman will go where they can

feel that they are achieving things. The cash is what they -- the cash

that they take on themselves is not what they are in business for. That

is the environment we have two create. I think you are confusing

the business activity and where capital can go. We can lose capital

abroad, but that is a different issue. All rights... We will have to

leave it there. Thank you very much. 131 Scottish business leaders have

signed a letter speaking out against independence, which will appear

in tomorrow morning's newspapers. They claim that the business case

for independence has not been made and that uncertainty still surrounds

a number of vital issues. Earlier I spoke to the

BBC's Business Editor Kamal Ahmed. I began by asking him

who are some of the bigger names who Well, this letter goes from the very

largest businesses, Douglas Flint, the chiming of HSBC, Andrew

McKenzie, the chief executive of a large mining company is another.

Some are very famous household names, Audrey Baxter, the executive

of Baxter food group. And Simon Thompson, the chief executive of

cairn energy. It is significant because it is the number as well as

the actual businesses that it represents. 133 business people have

signed the letter and also a number of smaller businesses. A small

engineering firm in the East End of Glasgow, for example. People are

saying that businesses have concerns of independence, they are arguing

that this goes on the largest of the smallest businesses. Is it likely to

change anybody's mind? I think businesses are leading to Thursday

night, where the CBI hold their annual dinner in Glasgow. The chief

executive of BT group will be there, a well-known opponent of

independence. The 'Yes' campaigners say they have many businesses which

are pro-independence and that if Scotland did become a independent

company that will be good for business. I imagine they are

collecting their thoughts together and getting ready for that push

before the dinner. Now let's have a look at the rest

of the day's news. Joining me now are journalist Kirsty

Scott and novelist Peter May. Let's pick up, that debate, what did

you make of it? I thought it was rummy. I don't think it will have

changed many people's mind. The point is that either of them were

making was lost in the cross talk, be speaking and shouting over one

another. People are looking for clarity. The debates didn't produce

that. We asked our viewers on Twitter what they made of the

debate. Alex Salmond was criticised in the

first event for being this passionate -- dispassionate. He

certainly was. I came away feeling quite depressed after it, it was

really just style over substance, there was no clarity. When you are

following it on Twitter, the amount of frustration, they weren't

answering the questions. This is modern Scotland, we have two middle

aged men in suits shouting at each other, but is not the type of

Scotland we want. It ended up clouding the issue is, Peter is

right, it would change the issues. There is no clarity. Better Together

have taken a different tack it tonight. The latest other party

political broadcasts went out on TV a few hours ago. It is a mum in her

kitchen, saying she hasn't made up her mind. Then she has an epiphany,

which we can look at now. I've made up my mind, I will do what is best

for Scotland. So, that'll be a 'No' from me. Time to get to work. We

have all seen at the whole thing as many viewers will have. Is that more

persuasive? It is a very different tone. It certainly is very

different. I used to be a script editor for a Scottish soap, I'm

afraid if that script had arrived at my desk, I would have sent it back

for a rewrite. The transition from uncertainty to those in five seconds

at the end. I don't think it is very convincing. But it will have been

very carefully scripted, it will have been grouped, they know who

they would have targeted, the precise vocabulary to get in.

Presumably, it is uncertain women voters. Will it work? I think, when

I first saw it, Peter and I were both disappointed in it. They use an

actress, it would have had more power to use a normal person. It was

very cleverly made. She is sitting in a messy kitchen, she is the

Scottish version of the soccer mum. That is who the campaigns need to

convince. She is saying she is not ready to take the jump. Yes, you

possibly see yourself in her. There were images of the kids, the crowns

on the table. Yes, I think that could hit home. 'Yes' Scotland will

have their own out tomorrow. Let me pick up what I was discussing

earlier, as letter from business leaders. Will that be more

persuasive, do you think? Do people care what Germans think? --

chairman. No, I don't think so. The focus, people have said, is small

and medium businesses. When large businesses say they will move their

headquarters, that can be a turn off. But if it is a smaller

business, it will have some impact. People will make up their own minds

for their own reasons. These things will add to it, but in terms of

people thinking a definite 'No', I don't think so. I think, you have

won a group coming out with a statement on one side, another with

one on the other side... I'm sure it won't be long before an equal number

of businessmen signed a letter supporting 'Yes'

arguments in a different setting, that can be very persuasive. Thank

you both for talking to us. That is all from us, I'll be back at the

same time again tomorrow night. Until then, have a good evening.