23/11/2015 Scotland 2015

The Prime Minister announces his strategic defence review -

Another strategic defence review, another row about whether the Prime

Central Brussels goes into a fourth day of lockdown - we'll hear what

And what chance of ever returning to everyday life?

On the trail of the refugees escaping

There's mixed news for Scotland in the UK Government's Defence Review.

The Prime Minister has announced that nine new maritime patrol

aircraft will be based at RAF Lossiemouth in Moray -

five years after it got rid of the Nimrod fleet.

But the SNP has criticised an apparent reduction

in the number of Type 26 warships due to be built on the Clyde.

In a moment we'll be discuss the implications, but first

Early this morning be Prime Minister David Cameron was in Paris. He laid

flowers and paid his respects to the 130 victims of the terror attacks

ten days ago. Later in the Commons, he outlined his comment's ?178

billion plans to keep the country safe. We will buy nine new maritime

patrol aircraft to be based in Scotland at RAF Lossiemouth. They

will protect our nuclear deterrent. We will hunt down hostile submarines

and will enhance our maritime search and rescue. And we will buy it least

13 new frigates and two new offshore patrol vessels. This will include

two 5000 strong strike the great that can be rapidly deployed --

strike brigade. Nine Boeing maritime patrol aircraft to be stationed at

RAF Lossiemouth. But there will be a reduction in the number of Type 26

frigates. This review is a mixed bag for Scotland. On the one hand

maritime patrol aircraft will be back again Mr Moray. The previous

Nimrod fleet were scrapped in 2010. But it is not good news for

shipyards like you are in Govan. They were promised 15 Type 26

frigates, but they will only get it. Prior to the referendum on

Scottish independence, April UK Better Together campaign claimed the

only way to protect should building jobs on the Clyde was to vote no.

Today they said the government had gone back on the promise to ship

workers in the Clyde. We were promised would be 13 Type 26s, and

to get only eight is a betrayal of the workers under of Scotland. We

are seeing a cutback in our conventional defence forces to pay

for the overspend on Trident. That view was dismissed by the union

which represents ship workers. It said this was great news for

Clydeside, which has been rewarded for its continuing quality of work.

The leader of the Labour Party questioned elements of the review.

Labour support the increased expenditure to strengthen our

security services but was announced to protect against the threat of

terrorism. However, faced with the current threat, the public will not

accept any cuts to front-line policing. In Lossiemouth there was

relief. Lossiemouth will contain two easiest, I think it is good. --

Lossiemouth will continue to exist. It is a good idea. It will be good

for Moray. Rescue services, I think we can do with it. Have taken enough

away from us, we could do something back. With terror attacks in Paris

and police operations in Brussels, minds are focused on national

security. Tomorrow there will be an SNP debate on Trident in the

Commons, and on Thursday David Cameron will try to get consent for

air strikes on so-called Islamic State in Syria.

Just before we came on air I spoke to Professor Evan Mawdsley from

the Scottish Centre for War Studies at the University of Glasgow.

This is a very different review to that in 2010. What is the overall

strategy? The difference is that 2010 was about cutting, and this is

about going on, in theory having made the cuts. It is about trying to

make sure -- insure Britain's security and a number of ways across

a broad spectrum. The reviews about defence and also about national

security, anti-terrorist, anti-crime and so on. It also includes an

element of making the world safer, having aid programmes. One of the

stresses is on meeting a 2 present defence expenditure but also having

a 0.7% of funding for aid as well. -- to present defence its editor.

What is it a bit Britain's role in the world and we're David Cameron

would like it to be? A lot of what was said today was about written

being a major power and punching above its weight. And that is kind

of the thrust of what is being said in the review. Not only in terms of

actual hardware but in terms of other things that Britain does

financially, and providing aid and security. It is a very broad brush

things. Seen Britain has a very important place. There are more

people in the French Armed Forces them are in the British Armed

Forces, but the argument is that Britain does things differently and

has a wider range of our and that makes it a major player, and that

includes the Trident dimensional as well. The government says that this

defence review is good news for Scotland. Is it? It is hard to say.

On the whole borough is not that much that is new about Scotland in

the review. The one thing which I think is probably knew which it does

say is talking about the shipbuilding programme, and rather

than building 13 Type 26 they will only build eight, and they will

build a number of light frigates instead to make up the gap they are

about half the size and much less capable, and it would not

necessarily be built in Scotland. That is one thing which is

uncertain. There is the possibility of that would mean less work on the

Clyde. The Government's argument is that if you make a cheaper ship you

can export it. Being flexible and exportable. You can sell them to

other parties, which would be not entirely a new development for

Britain. That would be another part of it. Also for Scotland they talked

about getting back the maritime patrol aircraft capability which was

lost in the last defence review when they scrapped the Nimrods, with this

new aircraft which they will purchase in the United States they

will get that back again. How difficult is it for a government to

determine threat and risk over the longer term and commits the right

level of resources? It is impossible. And basically can be

done, and something the review says is that we cannot predict the

future, all we can do is look at threats. There is a national threat

assessment as part of the review which says, the kind of things we

have to worry about. There are different years of threats, and in

each one there are different things. -- there are different

levels of threats. If you think about the last week, you could not

have predicted that what the invitations would be. You could not

have predicted a UN resolution either. These things are very

uncertain, but more than that they are thinking ten or 15 years ahead,

and that is impossible to plan precisely.

Joining me now from Westminster is the SNP's

Defence Spokesperson Brendan O'Hara and in Aberdeen for the Scottish

Alex Johnson, this review gives with one hand and takes away with the

other. It is good news for Lossiemouth, but it does fall short

of what he ship builders were promised during the referendum

campaign. And do not believe it does at all. Mike the decision to limit

the Type 26 programme to only eight ships was possibly political, but

more importantly the Prime Minister gave the commitment to 13 frigates

in a statement today, and these will be of a new design and build which

will be capable of being built on the Clyde and attractive to navies

around the world that have traditionally bought British Ipsa.

But they were promised 13 Type 26 frigates. Current order is for

eight. In a defence review it is necessary to review needs for the

future. The government have said that we need eight Type 26 frigates

that are planned, but we need a different type of frigates going

forward. That is a huge opportunity for the shipyards on the Clyde to

develop a new ship, one that can be marketed effectively be on the UK

and the Royal Navy. A huge opportunity am a Brendan, this

morning you were calling this a betrayal, but the union do not feel

betrayed, they welcomed the plans. For Bren suggest this is somehow

acceptable and eight was always on the plan, this is nonsense, indeed

there it is in black-and-white. We were promised during the referendum

13. Absolutely unequivocal. In 14 months somehow this government has

lost five Type 26 frigates, which means they cannot be trusted. And it

is a betrayal. And furthermore, this idea that these five ghost ships

will suddenly materialise, I don't know where people are getting that

from because again I would advise Alex to have a look, the only figure

mentioned is eight. The prime minister when he stood up today was

the only person who is mentioned these five new frigates, it is not

in the document and it is not what Scotland was promised. And therefore

it is a betrayal. Alex Johstone, the Prime Minister has said the lighter

frigates can be built in Scotland if conditions are right, that does not

sound like a promise. Indeed, when new orders are made it is essential

that shipyards compete for these orders, and we have on the Clyde

some of the finest warship yards anywhere in the world and their

performance is quite extraordinary in what they have been able to

produce and the quality of the ships they have produced over the years.

So why not commit to those lighter frigates as well today? It is

absolutely essential in a defence review that we consider the needs of

UK forces as we go forward. And that is why any defence review as we have

heard today the government have made a radical decision to limit the

number of Type 26 frigates that happen build and go forward with

another type of frigate which is better suited to our needs and

perhaps the needs of other nations that are interested in buying

British ships in the future. That is the kind of change that defence

reviews are about. The idea that you can lay plans years in advance and

expect to carry them out without any flexibility is naive in the

extreme. We are talking about a 40 present cat. A 40 present cat in 14

months. -- A14% cut. Somebody during the referendum campaign was not

telling the truth. Brendan O'Hara, the prime minister also said today

the only way these lighter frigates would not be built in Scotland was

of Scotland was independent. Is the truth not that an independent

Scotland would not have the resources of the Royal Navy

Scotland would not have the would be building fewer ships? The

Scotland would not have the Scotland cannot be underestimated.

In north Atlantic bay such as Faslane, a conventional use for

Faslane is something which Nato would be desperate to get its hands

on. Scotland has a very bright non-nuclear future, and the base at

Faslane has an equally bright non-nuclear future as part of

Scotland's ongoing commitment to The Sunday Herald's Foreign Editor

David Pratt has just returned from a ten-day trip following the

refugee trail from the Syria-Turkey And macro good evening. Ed has been

quite a trip. You have met quite a lot of refugees along the way,

taking a lot of photos. What is the story behind this image?

This is a man who made the crossing from Turkey to Kos some weeks ago,

and during the course of that crossing, the dinghy which he was in

with his family, his four children, capsized, and he spent two macro

hours in the water with his children clinging to him. One of his

children, his son, eventually drifted off, and is still missing.

He made it to shore. Subsequently, his youngest daughter died shortly

afterwards. This is now a man that had four children, who now has two

children, and he is stranded at the moment in Kos. His experience is not

that different from so many people who are making the crossing as we

speak. As we sit here tonight, many people are coming across in dinghy

is like the one he came across in. There are other striking images from

your trip of refugees who have just landed from pretty paralyse

journeys. Talk me through these photos.

-- pretty perilous journeys. These are volunteers on either side, women

you have just come across one of the overnight crossings.

This is a refugee who has just arrived, with an emergency blanket

on. It is very cold here at this time of year, and they usually come

across between midnight and five a.m.. It is bitterly cold. They are

terrified, cold, bedraggled, and uncertain as to what lies ahead for

them in the future. And of course, they are very traumatised from what

they experienced in Syria. Not all refugees make the journey

into Europe. Some decide to stay into Turkey. Talk me through that.

This is a shot from a port city, called Ismir. This family are living

in shop fronts and a rundown neighbourhood there. There are tens

thousands of refugees. There is a conception that all Syrian refugees

want to come to Europe, but the vast majority want to stay in Turkey or

near to the border, because they feel it is the best place to get

back to their home if and when peace breaks out. Your trip comes at a

time when the Prime Minister seems to have made up his own mind about

air strikes in Syria. He obviously needs the backing of

Parliament. What do you think the impact will be on the floor that

would flow of refugees if Britain does join in with air strikes?

I went with one of the largest humanitarian agencies, based in

Edinburgh, and speaking to aid workers, speaking to refugees

themselves, there has been a dramatic escalation on the ground,

since the Russian intervention. Many people I spoke to have spent there

were lead is specifically because of those air strikes or the knock-on

effect on the ground on fighting. If France is already adding to that,

and if Britain in turn adds to those air strikes, we can expect more

refugees coming across. Frankly, Europe can't have it both ways. We

can't go bombing in Syria, then throw up our hands in dismay and

say, goodness me, there are a lot more refugees fleeing the country.

But that will inevitably happen. Whether or not the air strikes are

effective in terms of eradicating or getting rid of IS on the ground,

so-called Islamic State, is questionable. Like many people, I

would like to see that organisation eviscerated and got rid of. But

whether that is the correct strategy to adopt is open to question.

There we must leave it. Thank you for coming in.

on lockdown for the third day running.

Sixteen people were arrested by the police on Sunday night,

but no weapons or explosives were seized.

Salah Abdeslam, a suspect in the Paris attacks,

who's thought to be in Belgium, was not among those arrested.

Soldiers are patrolling the streets as the city remains

on the highest level of alert of a terrorist attack.

Shops, schools and the metro system will reopen tomorrow.

Lindsay Mancheeney from Edinburgh has been living in Brussels

for the last ten years and I spoke to her just before we came on air.

What is the mood like there? As you can imagine, it is pretty

tense. There are not a lot of people out and about. A lot of the shops

are closed, most of the shops. The Metro and the schools are closed.

And people are generally staying at home as much as possible. So it is

very tense, very strange. It feels a bit like a ghost city, and the

police and military are everywhere, basically.

And I know you yourself are expecting a baby. There must be

quite a lot of anxiety for you to deal with.

Well, yes. The baby is due soon, and I have also got a little toddler at

home, so it is quite a lot of organisation, really, because we are

still supposed to be going to work, but nurseries and schools are

closed, so it is quite difficult trying to juggle everything. I am

eight months pregnant on top of that, so that makes things a bit

more difficult. But to be honest, it is mainly managing day-to-day which

is the main worry. And have you been able to venture out at all?

Have you wanted to? We do feel safer at home, but I must

admit, we have ventured out somewhat. As you can imagine, with a

little one at home, staying in for three days on the trot is a

challenge in itself, so I must admit, we have gone out a futile as,

but very short visits, very quick trips to the shops to buy a pint of

milk, a quick trip around the park, and then home, because the

atmosphere in the city is really not conducive to going for a nice walk

or having a nice time. So we have ventured out occasionally, but we

are staying at home as much as possible.

One lighter note I was aware of, Belgian police asked citizens not to

tweet about the armed operations going on, and I understand the

people there responded with cat pictures. Yes! Is that a typically

Belgian response? Yes, I think so. The Belgians are quite known for

their slightly left of centre sense of humour, so people in the centre

of town really had a view on those big operations on Sunday. Of course,

the tweets were going crazy initially, and then eventually,

everyone cottoned on to this idea to replace any information with cat

pictures, so I think it is probably a way of Belgians letting off steam

and a little insight into their sense of humour, probably. Well, I

hope the situation gets back to normal for you soon.

Thank you bring much, Lindsay Mancini in Brussels.

Let's look at those events in Brussels

with businessman Iain McGill, a former Conservative candidate,

and Cat Headley, who is a Labour candidate at

Welcome to you both this evening. As we have been on air, the US State

Department has issued a worldwide travel alert on Monday, warning US

citizens of the risk of travelling, because of what is described as

increased terrorist threats. Do you think we're just going to have to

start getting used to this as a sort of world that we are living in?

Yes. Do you know, Isis are out to get us. They are not content causing

terror in Iraq and Syria. They want to bring the fight to us, very much.

At the moment, we very much have to trust the authorities, back them,

and ensure they are getting the right... And down the line,

scrutinise them and make sure everything they are doing was for

the right reasons, and C were we can learn from it, because Isis are

serious about destroying our way of life. They hate the good things in

life, and that is pretty much where we are just now. So, cities in

lockdown, heavy-handed policing, is that just the reality of especially

living in a big an area now, do you think?

Well, what happened in Brussels in the last couple of days has really

highlighted the sort of reaction that there can be to these threats,

and I have been thinking about it in terms of, it is highly likely that

there has been an equivalent threat in the UK, but the decision has been

made that rather than locking down a city or a town, that you get on with

it, and that you run the risk that bad things might happen. So you have

this awful conundrum that I do not envy the people who have to make

this decision, which is either that you lockdown, and in fact, somehow

give the terrorists what they want, which is used stop a way of life,

but that you also protect their way of life. On the other hand, you can

continue with your everyday life and risked a horrible things like we saw

in Paris, and in these kind of situations, I think we are in new

territory with the kind of threats we are seeing all over the world,

Beirut, Egypt, Paris, Brussels. In many other places in between, as

well. And I think it is going to be a tough time for the security

services, but we need to make the right decisions that don't let them

when, and protect our way of life at the same time, and our freedoms.

We have seen the French president standing side-by-side with the Prime

Minister today and some quite powerful images. The Prime Minister

now says it is his firm conviction the UK should join air strikes, but

the decision will be up to MPs. We have also seen Fred aircraft -- a

French aircraft carrier launching its first strikes in Syria and Iraq.

How much pressure do you is the Prime Minister to reassert

Britain's plays in the the world stage?

There is more to showing solidarity with France than putting a French

flag on your Facebook profile. That is very easy to do, but solidarity

is very much, Isis took the fight to us here. They committed atrocities,

and they have been committing atrocities in Syria and Iraq for a

few years now. Committing atrocities on our doorstep now. Do you know, if

we are serious about solidarity with France, but also with Australia,

with America, with our allies who are taking their fight to Isis, it

is so important we pass this boat and we take our place on the world

stage. It is what we need to be doing. Take the fight to Isis, show

solidarity with our neighbours. David Cameron has made his position

very clear tonight. John McDonnell as saying after the parliamentary

Labour Party meeting that Labour will wait and see what the

government's plans are before deciding what to do in a Commons

vote. Is that a sustainable position?

I think everyone is united in their idea that Isis need to be gone,

their death cult needs to be eradicated from the face of the

earth, and they need to be stopped where they are and stopped from

hurting and killing people elsewhere. Dan Jarvis has denied

without an article in the Guardian where he describes five tests that

he would see as being important for establishing going to air strikes.

What difference does the UK getting involved mean? We need to have a

plan for political peace in Syria, and it needs to be economic pressure

put on Isis. There needs to be reconstruction plans, and there also

needs to be more strengthening the cohesion in UK society, and I think

we need to set out a clear moral case for the strikes, but also, the

justification that needs to be there, so that people can no that

this happened in a context rather than just bombing for bombing's

sake. There is not a lot of time left, but

I'd like to talk briefly about the defence review. Again, very

different tone to this defence review can bet the last one. It

seems to be all about projecting British values all around the world.

-- compare to the last one. Is that what matters?

There is a different tone to the last one, and there will be another

one in a couple of years, with a different tone again. Because the

world changes, the defence review is change. From the last one, one of

the real differences is, we were coming in in a place where the UK

economy wasn't in a strong place. Now, it is in a strong place. The

defence programme had a financial black hole bigger than the defence

budget. Now, we have relieved the economic strain, and it means we can

carry on and be strong in defence. Our two 2% Nato obligations and

national aid obligations. It is good news all around. Part of that is,

economic security leads to security. I'm afraid we're out of time. Thank

you both very much for coming in this evening.

That's all from us tonight. Thank you for watching.

I'll be back at the same time tomorrow night.

More air power, more0mi?s?lesJO 000 more rapid deployment.

Is S?ria driving txe0agwnvaJ 0 000 for the "full spectrum approach"