03/12/2015 Scotland 2015

The Prime Minister warns of a long and complex

As fighter jets from RAF Lossiemouth arrive in Cyprus to join air strikes

in Syria, the First Minister says she is deeply troubled by the

We'll be live at the Oldham by election as the polls close

and counting gets under way in this Labour stronghold seat.

And more traffic misery for commuters as the

Forth Road Bridge closes from midnight tonight both ways.

24 hours on from last night's Commons vote, RAF Tornado jets have

already struck IS-controlled oilfields in eastern Syria.

In a moment we'll have analysis of the military operation in Syria

but first, Mike Grundon's been taking a look at today's events.

Within a few hours of yesterday's vote in the Commons, British

warplanes had extended their theatre of operations into Syria. Within

hours, the Scottish Parliament got a chance to respond to it. I remain

deeply troubled by the decision of the UK Government to take the

country into conflict. The issue did not dominate First Minister's

Questions but Nicola Sturgeon was not the only politician to speak

out. I did not extend air strikes into Syria but with British forces

now involved, we must come together to support the brave men and women

in our Armed Forces. There has been much speculation as to how much

opposition there is in Scotland for extending the UK bombing raids into

Syria. One online pollster is claiming that 72% are opposed that

those figures are being disputed. It's not clear from such evidence

that Scotland... That there are more people in Scotland opposed. At the

end of the day, we don't have a great deal of evidence and that

frankly leaves those on both sides of the argument with plenty of room

to argue that the position is one that favours their own point of

view. Meanwhile, as Britain's operations in Syria begin, the

number of warplanes in the region has doubled. Eight tornadoes already

running sorties out of Cyprus. There are six typhoons from Lossiemouth.

And two maul tornadoes. The MoD says the weapons they would deploy are

amongst the most accurate and precise in the world and everything

possible will be done to avoid civilian casualties, as it has been

in the past year. With the rules of engagement, the laws of armed

conflict we consider every time we drop any weapon, we have had no

reports of civilian casualties. That is a reflection of our close

consideration to collateral. The first UK air strike on Syria was 35

miles across the border on the oilfield. It is an important

moneyspinner for Isis. Michael Fallon tells us there will be more

the same in the coming days and weeks. Tonight, David Cameron tells

us this will be a long campaign and it will require patience and

persistence. Joining me now from London is

Elizabeth Quintana, who's a Senior Research Fellow in Air Power at the

Royal United Services Institute. We have seen oilfield is targeted

today. Is that purely about cutting off revenue to Islamic State? Most

Isis revenue comes from extortionate, the people are

controls on taxes, but also a significant proportion of that

revenue comes from oil so the US has been targeting a number of its

facilities of the last week and the UK has now been able to join in that

campaign. We heard talking the package there of the precision of

military missiles. Can we be sure that there would be civilian

casualties? You can never be entirely sure. This is the military

we are talking about but it has to be said that even compare to Libya,

which was recognised by the media to be a low collateral campaign, this

campaign against Isis has been even more careful and the UK operates on

a policy of zero collateral damage, which means they will not drop

weapons if they think that there will be civilian casualties. How

much of a difference will British airpower make here militarily? You

have to look a bit more broadly as well. Tomorrow, the German

government will also vote on whether or not it will be sending aircraft

over and John Kerry was hinting the other Nato nations are considering

providing some support. So this is a much bigger push by the US-led

coalition. Yesterday, the President announced there would be 200 extra

special forces that would conduct raids from Iraq into Syria alongside

Kurdish and Iraqi special forces. Like the attack on the Isis present

that we saw a few weeks ago. This is part of a broader campaign to step

up the fight against Isis. With the talk of the US special forces going

in, could that signal at some point a similar move from our special

forces? The government's policy is not to discuss the actions of its

special forces. It has been reported in the past that we have been

involved in the attack against the chief financial officer of Isis, the

UK special forces were involved in identifying who he wasn't tracking

him. So certainly, there are UK special forces on the ground in very

small numbers. But it requires the approach, if you want to have the

impact the coalition is looking to have against Isis. David Cameron

said today because of the complexity this will not be over soon. Are we

in this for the long for now? Certainly. From the beginning,

President Obama stated it would be at least three years to defeat

Isis. We have learned from Iraq and Afghanistan that these things,

however simple they might appear at first glance, are never quite as

simple as that. Yes, Western forces could rollback Isis tomorrow but

that would not resolve many of the political problems on the ground

between the various sectarian forces, it would not give Sunni

Arabs the recognition that they need in that particular region. And so,

the policy of the coalition has been to take a slowly-slowly approach, to

not only do they Isis militarily but lay the groundwork for a more

long-term, stable resolution. Obviously, that will take a lot

longer. The military is not the only solution but it is necessary. Isis

relies on the idea of a caliphate, the idea of holding and controlling

people and raising money from them to expand its activities elsewhere

in the world and so until we defeat them or degrade them militarily,

they will still exist as an organisation. There is obviously

concerned about... Yesterday's motion was about air strikes but the

so-called moderate forces on the ground are not ideal partners. Is

only a matter of time before we see British troops involved? I think we

should focus more on the BN talks first. Syria operates on three

different levels. The first is the geopolitics of the area. People like

Iran and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, who have a stake in who is the

pre-eminent actor in the Middle East, Russia also has a stake in

Rann, and then of course the US and other coalition partners do as well.

Then you have the actual Civil War in Syria which is about the various

sectarian factions who are all interested in a pluralistic Syria.

Charles Lister has produced a very good paper, looking at that. He has

spoken to different factions on both sides, all of which have signed up

to a vision of the future Syria, but that has not been taken into

consideration the talks so far. And underneath that, you have a fight

between Al-Qaeda and Isis to see who will actually be the pre-eminent

jihadis terrorist organisation globally. And until you deal with

all three of those simultaneously, you do need to do that to come to

some kind of resolution in Syria. The first, the geopolitical one, is

the most important. It's great that the Vienna talks going on. But we do

need to have the Free Syrian Army another rebel forces at the table

otherwise they will turn to Isis because they will fill those are the

only groups that respect and listen to them and what they want to see

going forward. So we have a long way to go but there are positive steps.

We are seeing some great advances in Iraq, which I would not have

predicted three months ago. There is a lot to hope for. But it will not

happen overnight. Labour faces

its first big electoral test tonight The Oldham West and Royton by

election was triggered by the death He held the seat with

a large majority at the last General Election and it has been

solidly Labour for nearly 50 years. But this time round they're facing

a strong challenge from UKIP. The polls closed at ten, joining me

now from the count is our political How is it looking this evening?

Labour say they are confident, which I think is translated as they were

winter light. So they should of course. They are defending a

majority of 15,000 although Ukip has put in a very strong effort. The

question will be, do Labour get over the line? And if they do, by how

much? Ukip have also been talking to them. They are more gloomy about it.

They say they have done well but don't think they have done well

enough to actually win tonight although they have managed it, it

would be a major shock. And why is the UK I'd be threats or big here

now? -- Ukip. They have been trying to establish themselves as the main

challenger to the Labour Party in seats like this. There is a key

challenge for the Labour Party tonight and that is to prove that

Jeremy Corbyn is popular in seats like this. This is primarily working

class and Jeremy Corbyn is on the left of the party in this is the

kind of see that he should appeal to. If that majority of 15,000 is

slashed, the question will be, is he really appealing to places like this

in the way that he should be? On the other hand, Ukip has focused its

campaign very much on targeting Jeremy Corbyn. That is what they

have been about, saying he is soft on security, all the rest of it, and

they believe they have made huge progress here, particularly within

the white working class although there is a large Asian population

here. Ukip traditionally don't make inroads with the Asian community. It

is only one by-election, it's not an indicator of how things will go at

the general election, but are their implications for Jeremy Corbyn and

the Labour Party if Ukip is strong here? It depends on the scale of

it. The neighbouring constituency here is Hayward and Middleton and

last year, Ukip did very well and almost won. They were within 600

votes of winning, just a few months before the general election, which

would have been a major election upset for the Labour Party. So they

already have a track record of doing well in constituencies like this.

What they have never quite been able to do is push over the line and

prove that they can actually go one step forward and actually win in

places like this but if they do manage to do well here tonight and

really squeeze Labour's majority down, I think there will be

questions for the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn as to why has it not

appealed to this heartland constituency which is supposed to be

what in theory he is supposed to be what in theory he's best at doing.

Interesting needling ahead for you. -- evening.

The Forth Road Bridge will be completely closed to traffic

from midnight tonight for at least 24 hours to allow repairs

The southbound carriageway has been closed and a contraflow has been in

place since defects were discovered in steelworks on Tuesday.

The bridge will be closed at midnight for at least 24 hours.

Structural engineers have been working since Tuesday, investigating

problems on the southbound carriageway and have discovered

attentional problems with eight other parts. A spokesman said the

bridge will remain closed all day tomorrow and beyond until repairs

are carried out and they are confident it is safe. It is one of

the main arterial routes in Scotland, and carries more than

66,000 vehicles every day. The partial closure so far this week

have resulted in many miles of tailbacks at both ends and very long

delays. News the bridge will be totally closed will lead to major

detours and congestion on the roads. Joining me now in the studio is

Transport Minister Derek Mackay. What have you found on the bridge

which has caused this action? Expert analysis has recommend close your

until the fault that has been identified is fixed. If we allow

more traffic to go over the bridge it will cause more damage and more

long-term effects. It is the right decision to close it as of midnight.

It was not taken lightly, the decision. We need to make the medium

repairs and get the bridge in full working order and not cause more

damage to the structure. How long will it be closed for? I do not know

the answer to that yet. We will have a press conference tomorrow and go

over all the details. We are analysing the modelling and data we

have and experts are looking at it to see what needs to be done. It

will certainly be closed from the night and I would advise the

public, who would normally use the bridge to avoid it if they can and

stay at home tomorrow. We know there has been congestion issues around

the bridge because of the partial closure. It will cause a lot of

misery. A big implication for business as well. I think it proves

it is the right decision to build a replacement. The immediate impact, I

recognise it will cause a disruption. But if we allow traffic

to continue going over the bridge it will cause more damage and that is

not acceptable. We have had independent opinion verify that and

ministers I think taken the right decision. I have not long come from

a telephone conference with ministers to make sure we are doing

the right thing. People will be going to bed and discovering this

and wondering how they can get to work tomorrow. When can they find

out more information, especially for next week? We are working on all

contingencies plans at the moment and we will have a press conference

tomorrow about the impact and what we can put in place to try and

mitigate the impact of the bridge closure. We are keeping it, keeping

it open carries an unacceptable risk and I know that it causes congestion

but we must put safety and protecting the structure first so we

can open it again has quickly as possible will stop I can give more

information around transport and diversion alternatives tomorrow. My

advice is closing this bridge the night should mean if at all

possible, people that would normally use the crossing should avoid the

bridge area tomorrow. Thanks very much for coming in. More information

on that through the morning on good morning Scotland.

The crisis in the oil and gas industry shows no sign of easing up,

so is it time the north east economy stopped relying so heavily

That's one of the aims of a new body that's being set up called

It will replace the existing economic development agency.

Half its funding will come from businessman Sir Ian Wood,

who is putting up ?25 million of his own money.

A short while ago, I spoke to Sir Ian from our studio in Aberdeen.

I asked him if he was optimistic that things

No, you could put it the other way around! I think this has been an

area totally dominated by the oil and gas industry. It is a very

strong industry. Some traditional industries have had a hard time as a

result and they need special time and attention to help them through

what has been a difficult period. What I believe, the north-east of

Scotland is a particular challenge, I think it is made a big

contribution to the economy of the UK and Scotland by developing oil

and gas. It has done very well for itself in the process. We know we

have a big problem out there. It is not sticking your head in the sand.

I will not be over domestic or pessimistic. We are saying we need

to be proactive to look at the adjustment we need to achieve in the

medium, and long-term. The other thing that is happening in the

north-east of Scotland which is very important is application for the

city region deal. I am sure you are familiar with some of that.

Aberdeenshire are making a very strong application. Frankly that is

going to be very important. I would put our initiative as important but

much more important will be getting some serious, access to serious

funding to do a range of things Aberdeen will need to get itself in

better shape for the future. Opportunity north-east will be

positioned alongside that and will actually be the private sector

partner. We will work along with that. And hopefully we will be able

to get the private sector involved and get the implementation programme

under way. What can this new body do differently compared to the way

planning has happened in the area in the past? What will you do? It is

not so much planning. The economic development, we have had very

limited funding. The body that we are taking over part of their

activities from, they will disappear, they had a budget of

?350,000 per year. It was largely optics sector orientated. The two

councils tried to do things but they do not have the funding. -- public

sector. The money and the resources are pretty wildly spread. We can do

a range of things. With oil and gas, I did a review couple of years ago

maximising opportunity for the UK. We will carry on with that but then

see how we can maximise it for the north-east of Scotland, so that is

spending some serious money on a new technology centre, serious funding

on doing various things to anchor the oil and gas supply chain, get it

to stay, support it staying in the North East of Scotland after the

North Sea, and we can do things constructively to achieve that. Life

sciences, frankly it is a massive potential for that in our area. We

will double the size of the present technology hub that they have. We

will do a lot of work in food and strength based on technology and

marketing and the tourist business is purely business tourism. There is

a lot we can do to develop leisure tourism in a range of ways and we

will give the tourist industry the money to do that. With oil and gas

nobody foresaw that plunge in oil prices and the fact that it was

going to go on so long. Are you optimistic things will pick up? If

it does not, is there a future in the longer term for oil and gas

here? I am certain that the answer to your second question is

absolutely yes. It is a question of timing. Am I optimistic? Right now I

am realistic. I think there is a reasonable chance the price will

recover in probably 2017, that is the likely date. In some ways we are

in much better shape. The Chancellor budget in March was actually a good

budget for the oil and gas industry. There is light at the end of the

tunnel if the price recovers. We have a new regulator and a really

good and strong new regulator that is proactive. Is the government task

force the Scottish governance task force doing enough at the moment to

help those who are losing their jobs? Well, I actually think, what

can the Gutmann to do in a situation with major industrial problems? --

government. They put together a very good task force, very well chaired

by Lena Wilson and I think they have probably done as much as I can. But

in truth, you are quite limited in what you can do in an area, we are

going to have more joblessness next year, if the budgets are cut, we

have had severe cuts looking for to do next year, if the budgets are cut

there is not much you can do. What government can do, Treasury, the

regulator and industry, they can get together, it has been looked at, how

can we support three developers to go ahead instead of a complete lack

of it? The ongoing maintenance carries on. That is quite large. It

is the fall of new development which will impact on jobs. There is some

thinking about what we can do to significantly support, not just

through tax but a range of other things we can do to support new

developments to go ahead. We will do what we can but it is not easy. We

must leave it there. Thanks Ray much for coming in. Thank you.

I am joined by Paul Hutcheon and Anna Burnside. Welcome, though. We

will go back to the old by-election, where they are counting at the

moment. One of the safest Labour seats. What would be a bad result

for Labour here? That would be losing. A win is a win, if they win

by one vote it would be seen as a success. It does not matter if it is

a very narrow majority? One of their safest seats? By-elections are

always very difficult, always trying circumstances. I was focusing on

Scottish Labour to 90 would be distraught if the party did not lose

this because they think the greater good would be the departure of

Jeremy Corbyn. -- Scottish Labour tonight would be distraught. It

would damage the chances of winning a general election. How senior were

the people you were talking to? Pretty senior activists. They love

the Labour Party but feel Jeremy Corbyn is basically tearing the

party apart. They cannot see a circumstance when hate Corbin led

party would result in an election success. -- Jeremy Corbyn led party.

It is an absolute Vlasic Labour heartland. To get rid of Jeremy

Corbyn, that is, who would have thought it? -- classic Labour. One

person says the Hilary Benn a speech last night might have saved... Do

you think that is possible? It is possible, but then again, were I a

potential Labour voter in Alderney engaged in such things I would have

watched Jeremy Corbyn starting on the anti-war position and Hilary

Benn winding up, or for bombs. I am not sure that would have persuaded

me to put my cross in the ballot box. This is what the saddo

Chancellor had to say about that speech this

Shad -- this is what the Shadow Chancellor had to say. I thought he

was very careful in how he put it. I thought Hillary was great. It

reminds me of the Tony Blair speech, taking us into the Iraq war. I am

always worried that the racist oratory is going to lead us into the

greatest mistakes as well. -- greatest oratory. It shows that

Labour are totally divided. The parallel story is almost getting as

much attention has the Labour division. It is almost like they

have left the pitch to go off to the dressing room and have a big row. It

is very depressing as a Labour supporter. We have the whole Ken

Livingstone row today. He said earlier, if I had an MP that voted

to bomb Syria I would be prepared to support somebody challenging them as

long as they were good on a load of other issues. He later clarified and

said he was not calling for the selection, but what did you make of

what he was saying? There is no more depressing sight than a middle-aged

man playing student. Really. It is not the time and place to have this

carry on. The Labour Party is doing a good enough job tearing itself

apart without people like Ken Livingstone who should be senior

figures who have been around the block a few times saying such

ill-advised things like that. And the looks on some other places last

night when Hilary Benn was speaking, spoke 1000 words, I thought. A big

proportion of the Labour Parliamentary group, there is no

doubt about it, we knew that from Afghanistan and Iraq, it should not

have been a big surprise we were going to get a speech like that from

Hilary Benn. Although he has taken different positions in the past. On

Ken Livingstone, I do not know what the future is for Labour but I know

it is not him. He had a great record at the GLC and was a Progressive

London May but he is progressively becoming a poisonous and divisive

figure. I think he's in danger of tarnishing his own legacy. We have

had a lot of online abuse today of Labour MPs that did actually vote in

favour of air strikes. Did you think if you were in politics that is

something you should have to be used to? There is an argument that full

and frank debate and all that but I think it has been pretty nasty and

uncle for. We saw in the Referendum campaign how heated the small social

media bubble can get and how unpleasant and vitriolic and

targeted and uncomfortable. There is no need for it. It is not what it is

about. I am afraid that is all we have got time for. Thanks, both of

you, for joining me. That is it for this week. Thanks for watching. I am

back on Monday at the usual time. Until then, have a good weekend. We

will see you then. Goodbye.