14/03/2016 Scotland 2016

or a key to growing Scotland's economy?

Just who will benefit from slashing Air Passenger Duty?

whether Scotland should slash Air Passenger Duty.

We'll debate whether it will fly.

Mental health campaigner Alistair Campbell tells us he's "shocked"

by the number of rough sleepers he's seen here.

And we ask why Scotland has one of the highest rates in western Europe

for imprisonment AND community supervision?

The airline easyJet says it expects to grow its Scottish business by 30%

The Scottish Government is consulting on plans to cut

That would obviously be good news for the travel industry

and for holidaymakers but what about the environment?

And how will it help those on the lowest incomes,

who could never contemplate a holiday in the sun anyway?

We'll discuss all that in a moment. But first, here's Suzanne Allan.

Whether it is Benidorm or Bali, booking a holiday can be expensive.

Under these proposals, if you're jetting off somewhere nice, it could

be a little bit cheaper. The Scottish Government is intended to

cut Air Passenger Duty by 50%. This travel agent in Edinburgh is

doubtful that it will make much difference to holiday-makers. I

don't think it will make much difference to booking or not booking

a holiday. For a family going to Florida they might be playing

somewhere in the region of ?50 and Air Passenger Duty. In the scale of

things, I don't bow if it would stop them going. This lady who has just

put a Mediterranean cruise would be grateful for any saving. It would be

nice if something was taken off it. It might not stop me going, but I

would be happy with the reduction and I would spend it on something

else. How much you pay depends on where you are sitting on a plane and

how far you are travelling. Air Passenger Duty starts at ?13 and the

rates go up to ?146. The Scottish Government wants to reduce this by

50%. If it happens it will not go through and be introduced until

2018. It is not just about holiday-makers. The government hopes

the economy will take off, too. What the Scottish Government wants to do

is reduce Air Passenger Duty with the specific objective of improving

the economic performance of Scotland including our competitiveness and

creating employment within Scotland. Last year, Edinburgh Airport

published a report that claimed that a reduction would bring in ?200

million of economic benefits for Scotland, every year. You cannot

have too much success. We need to get people in here, we need to get

airlines anyone connects content of the rest of the World, and then we

can take advantage of that. Critics say that it runs counter to the

Scottish Government's ambitious climate change targets. At a time

when climate emissions from air transport are increasing what we are

getting is a proposal to reduce tax on that form of transport, when we

know already that it has a very favourable tax regime. South of the

border, there are concerns, too. The Scottish Government is firming up on

what their plans are. Why they are doing this is to give Scotland a

competitive advantage over their competitors, and their competitors

are places like the north-east. So be want a level playing field. There

is a view that this is a move that will benefit airlines and the

well-off who travel through quickly. It isn't a given that a cut in duty

will mean an economic boost? It might do. It might increase the

number of tourists coming into Scotland and the amount of business

traffic there is because it will be that much cheaper. We know that

Inverness does not pay APD and, compared with for example, Edinburgh

Airport, it has not performed all that well in the last six or seven

years. The Scottish Government is going to have to make decisions that

are risks, because it cannot know the knock-on effects on income tax,

on VAT and so on if it changes Air Passenger Duty, so we are moving

into a new environment where risk is part of the equation. This couple

have just booked to go to Australia, so any changes will not affect them,

but come the budget on Wednesday, who knows what the Chancellor,

George Osborne, may have up his sleeve?

Suzanne Allan reporting. Listening to that here in the studio is the

Cabinet Secretary for Infrastructure and Investment, Keith Brown, and in

our Aberdeen studio, for Scottish Labour, Lewis Macdonald

who sits on the Economy, Energy Tourism Committee.

I can see how this tax cut would help people who want to go on

holiday, but what about the protest, how will it benefit them? If you can

get an increase in tax receipts because of the increase in economic

activity, this will benefit bed-and-breakfast, visitor

attractions, small concerns right across Scotland. This is about

generating more economic activity, and if we can do that, everybody

benefits. But it is a big if according to David Bell, in the

package. David Bell said that we will learn more as we go through. It

is always the case, you have to take some of these things, a decision

which you think is right and then you find the full consequences in

the course of time. You accept that it is a big unknown. Any change in

taxation is an unknown. We cannot tell what the consequences may be.

The evidence we have seen so far suggests a good increase in economic

activity, this is what Scotland is crying out for, more jobs and more

economic activity across Scotland. Why would labour be against this?

Look what the SNP want to do, they want to cut taxes. And then when you

say what is the consequence of top cutting taxes, they say that it will

increase the tax income. No, it doesn't. That doesn't follow at all.

Keith is being optimistic, if I can put it that way when he says that by

cutting the tax rate you can increase tax income. We don't know

the consequences of that decision, except that it takes hundreds of

millions of pounds out of the Scottish Government budget

straightaway. He has the backing of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce to

say that Air Passenger Duty is a barrier to international trade, that

this move will boost to result and exports and competitiveness. It is

inevitable that tax cuts will attract support from some quarters.

The question, I think, that people have to ask in the run-up to the

Scottish elections is, do we want to cut taxes on air traffic or do we

want to try and find ways to spend the money that that tax brings in

more effectively than is being done so far? We would certainly, rather

than take 150 million, I think is planned, out of the Scottish

Government revenue by cutting the tax, we would rather spend that

money on supporting young people to get into the housing market. We

think that is better for the economy overall. There are lots of ways you

can help the economy. The way we would choose to do it is by helping

the world less well-off to boost their position in the economy and

boost their spending power, and get young people into housing, helping

business as well as those young people. You have the support of the

right of centre taxpayers are lines. It does seem like an odd priority

for a party that is positioning itself as anti-austerity. Not at

all. This will increase economic activity and tax receipts. What is

interesting is the position of the Labour Party. They argued in this

myth commission that Scotland should have these powers. They flip flop

back and forward as to what they would do with it. They supported the

cuts in Northern Ireland. I don't know what their particular problem

is in Scotland. These powers are coming to us in Scotland. The Labour

Party has argued for them. It is time to use them productively for

the people of Scotland. This the highest packs of its kind in the

world and is a punitive tax on business in Scotland. Lewis

Macdonald, your party is saying that it is the wrong cut at the wrong

time. But according to our survey, a majority of Labour MPs would support

cut across the UK in Air Passenger Duty. There is a view among MPs that

Air Passenger Duty should not be a competition between different parts

of the UK. You do not want the race to the bottom in Air Passenger Duty

any more than we do in corporation tax. All that does is put a premium

on low tax and therefore on Lupe and therefore a low skills in the

economy. We want to strengthen the economy and the way you do that is

not by cutting taxes. -- on low-paid. What we are further from

Keith Brown is simply an assertion that if you cut taxes it is bound to

boost economic activity. That does not follow at all. And there are

other ways to boost economic activity not least by helping young

people to get onto the housing market. The Chancellor could abolish

the tax across the UK which would negate any competitive advantage

that Scotland has. It is not just the Chambers of Commerce, it is the

airports and airlines, the plans they would put into place to

increase ruse which cut out the need for interim flights, which are the

most environmentally damaging. People realise that this is going to

produce benefits. If the Chancellor does this, where does that leave the

likes of the Labour Party in Scotland? Will they change their

mind again? We are doing this because we are the government of

Scotland and this is our intention to do this. If the UK Government

decides to do something similar, because we have led the way, then

that is their decision. The good news is, Keith, there is an election

coming up, so who becomes the next government of Scotland remains to be

seen. I am looking forward to it. Labour's former spin doctor -

and prolific Tweeter - And earlier on social media

he noted his "shock" at the number of rough sleepers

on Scotland's streets. I'll be speaking to him

in a moment but Although the number of homeless

people in Scotland has been going down, rough sleeping

remains stubbornly high. Earlier today we spoke to David

Duke, a former rough sleeper who founded the homeless charity

Street Soccer Scotland. Street Soccer Scotland is a social

enterprise that uses football to engage with people who have gone

through homelessness, mental health issues, addiction, and we bring that

together to combat isolation and give them something positive to do,

being part of sport and building a network for themselves, building

friendships and relationships. We are getting busier. We are engaging

over 1000 people every week, adults and in a young person's project, so

be actually getting busier. Is homelessness increasing? I think,

ever since I wrote my first funding application, the figures were

between 30,000 - 30 5000. I don't think it has changed. Homelessness

and poverty in general is a by-product of many social problems

that come with it, addiction, mental health, you know? Mental health will

be there for people, because you can imagine how stressful situation,

sleeping here in Princes Street, going to bed at night, not going to

bed at night, sleeping with one eye open, not knowing where he will

sleep the next night, that would cause anybody to be stressed and

have a negative impact on mental health. I was a young man and I did

not know that homeless shelters existed. I had seen it on TV but I

did not know that you could go to Glasgow City Council and represent

yourself as homeless. You then get caught in a situation which is

scary, you don't know where to turn. I will spoke to a sleek -- Street

worker who gave me good advice. It took good advice from charities and

aid services in the west of Scotland who actually give you the

confidence, the structure, the belief that you can actually do

something and, obviously, football, for me, was a massive part of it.

And that is what we have seen today. -- football was a massive part of

it. Well, listening to that

was Alistair Campbell, who's a long-time campaigner

on mental health issues. The vast majority of rough sleepers

have severe mental health problems. Why does it seem to be so hard to

help people with these problems? I am not sure that they actually are

being held. And here and in England, were walking by on the other side.

The Conservatives in London will often say, these are the tough cases

and there is nothing we can do, and if you try and help them, they will

stay there. We showed as a Labour government at Westminster, a

proactive strategy to give them access to the services they need. It

almost became a thing of the past. I am appalled, because there seems to

be no outrage at the fact that as you are going through, not just big

cities but smaller towns as well, you are seen it everywhere, there is

a return. The Conservative government in England, they kind of

believe in Nice arrival of the fittest and all that stuff, and that

is a price worth paying for getting the economy going but here, you have

a government that project itself as being very progressive. I have been

shot from being up here in the last few days.

What was your impression? In Edinburgh, I was shocked about how

many people I saw on the street. One of my sons does all the work with

homeless people and talk to them and very quickly you find that

mental-health will be an issue. It's like we're walking past people who,

if it was physical health we were talking about... If we were talking

about car crashes, people having gone through the windscreen lying on

the ground, I wish there was a little bit more outrage about it,

the SNP Government has been in Government for nine years now. They

talk about a good game and what they've done in relation to housing

and homelessness... Homelessness has gone down overall. I think when you

see the people on the streets, that we are beginning to see now, I just

think that this is an issue... I know elections are always about the

economy and health and education, but it really do think that, not

just housing, but homelessness and in particular this... Because this

really rectal sent something, you cannot have a civilized society and

we'll go to bed tonight and there are lots of people out there who

just do not have the support, do not have the services they need to get

off this rate. -- it really represents a something. We have not

really heard any of the party so far talking about rough sleeping. I know

you have been up talking to lick not helping one MSP in his reelection.

Is it something Scottish Labour should take on board as well? Look,

if... The election is about public services, about crime, transport,

all of that, understood. But I do think that the... I feel very

strongly that both in Westminster and Holly Ridge, we've got

governments that talk the about mental health and I just think more

has to be done and I think what we are talking about here, we all do

it, we all see people, walk by them, that is not just us as individuals,

we are walking by some of the most vulnerable people and we have got to

do more to help them. And the reason you are here obviously is to support

a reelection of one MSP. I know you like to tweet, someone tweeted about

you coming here, I like him but Scottish heats new Labour. Do you

think your presence will be helpful for Scottish Labour? I think that

elections are about millions of individual peoples making decisions.

But the Tony Blair legacy is toxic stuff. If you had been at the

meeting I was at today, and indeed at the school of is that earlier

were several people, I did a book signing at the end of it at her

school, fantastic school, and I was... People came up to me actually

saying, I wish you guys were back. It's complicated. It's complicated!

I don't care whether people think I'm making it... I know Ken

Mackintosh, I think is a really great guy, I've known him for years,

I've known him for years and years and years, I want to support him.

What advice would you give to Scottish Labour? I think Scottish

Labour has done a very good thing in getting a young energetic, vibrant

leader who I really like. But still hasn't naked breakthrough in the

polls for them. It is tough in this country at the moment because the

SNP have been... They are pretty rampant. But I do think, I watched

Nicola Sturgeon's speech at the Beacon I thought it was a really

interesting that... Her top line, as far as I could work out, we are

going to have another go independence. I thought that didn't

stack up to me as a big thing for an election campaign coming up. Where's

the big vision for the future? Eber have got a good leader, I really

like Kezia Dugdale, but nobody should pretend Labour Party is in a

strong position. But not long ago, people thought Labour were going to

be in power in Scotland forever, it went, things can change. I think the

shine will come off of the SNP, but Labour really have to go for it.

There we must leave it. Thank you. The number of Scots in prison

or under criminal justice supervision in the community has

risen fourfold since the 1970s. That's even though crime has fallen

over the same period. A new European study has found that

Scotland has one of the highest rates in western Europe,

both for community supervision In the mid '70s, fewer than 3,000

people were under supervision. At the same time, 5,000

people were in jail. By 2013/14, around 24,000 people

were under supervision. Yet the prison population had also

risen to just under 8,000. Just before we came on air,

I spoke to Fergus McNeill, Professor of Criminology

at Glasgow University, I began by asking him why we're

seeing so many more people penalised There are a number of factors which

we think explain it, the first is really broad social change. With

live and more insecure times arguably and the theory goes that

that produces a greater degree of punitiveness, fearfulness, maybe

less willingness to extend a degree of sympathy to people who are in

more difficult and challenging circumstances. And so sociologists

suggest that has grown the rise in prison rates in society all over the

western world. I guess people might have thought, even if community

supervision is a good thing, the number of jail sentences would've

gone down, but that hasn't been the case?

No, the problem is that both have arisen simultaneously and indeed

that has been the case indeed in many places across the Western

world, so we now have unprecedented numbers of people under control of

the penal system in these two different ways. Rather then

supervision in the community diverging people from prison, it

seems as if we've drawn people into the criminal justice system, under

supervision, people who might've been dealt with through financial

penalties are lesser sections. There's been a dramatic decrease in

the use of fines, it has that been because they didn't actually work?

What is it when a fine works? Of a fine is paid, it works. It measures

the pain that the offence has caused and it set the level of sanction

that the offender must satisfy. They often were paid, were they? There

were the problem with the nonpayment of fines and that was leading to the

innovation to the something came about as calm in the 1990s. If you

were most marginalised and economically are being sucked into

the criminal justice system and they are already on poverty line incomes,

then it is difficult to impose financial sections and those to be

successful within this population. We have seen something like an

eightfold increase in the number of community supervision sentences of

various types since the mid-70s, if they community sentences, isn't that

a good thing? It is a good thing. If they are displacing prison

sentences. If the net amount to penal control is being held down in

is proportionate to the amount of harm and suffering that offending is

causing, there would be no problem. You do not think that is the case?

No, I think that crime is falling, the number of cases becoming the for

the courts is falling, but the number of people being swept into

the system up in the control is rising. That is inefficient because

the sanctions cost is significant about the money to administer. It is

not necessarily effective unless the sanctions art administered carefully

and properly. The more you draw into the systems, the harder harder it is

to emitters these systems well. You could have overcrowding in the

community, as he could have overcrowding in the presence.

Scotland has one of the highest rates for both for the community

service sentences and imprisonment in the Western world. Is that a

concern to you? It is. I think we need to look very carefully at

whether the sanctions are being imposed proportionately and whether

there aren't further opportunities for upstream diversions. Again, a

broad point that would be made by sociologists on punishment is that

we are disinfecting in welfare and them paying prices in the penal

system. It would be much more sensible to take money out of the

penal system and sped on the right forms are penal... And to support

people who have fallen into difficult lifestyles to get out of

that. Professor Fergus McNeill, thank you.

And with me this evening to look at some of the other top stories

this evening is David Pratt, contributing Foreign Editor

of the Sunday Herald, and Lynsey Bews from

Welcome to both of you. Let's start with that story, the Russian

president Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to start withdrawing

the main part of his forces from Syria from Tuesday. It's a bit of a

surprise move, this, isn't it, David?

It is a surprise, I think it caught a lot of people out in many ways,

but some of the diplomatic groundwork clearly was building up

to that, there is the question about that. The reason why it should

happen at this precise moment, we have the talks ongoing in Geneva and

I can from Moscow's perspective, they clearly think that they have

got something of the upper hand on the ground they have consolidated

the Damascus regime, they have bought time for President Assad. So

it's a good moment to make this new. He is saying that they have largely

achieved their objectives. Have they? It depends on who you are and

what you think those objectives actually are. Militarily, there is a

question that they have turned, not the tables, but they have certainly

changed the dynamics on the grounds on the battlefields, there's

question. They have correspondingly impacted on the diplomatic situation

quite a bit. They firmly believe that President Assad is now going to

survive in some shape or form. They wouldn't be leaving otherwise. I

mean, they have a long relationship, Syria has been Moscow's ally for a

long time. They're not going to abandon now. So are we seeing a

turning point here now? In terms of what is happening in

Syria? I think it is probably too early to say. I think we will

probably need to see what the consequences are of Russia pulling

out and no longer giving that packing to President Assad on the

ground, to see what happens there. Interestingly, Vladimir Putin has

left the door open to go back again, he is maintaining that air base in

Syria. There is the option of re-entering should he need to

provide support to President Assad again. The Geneva talks obviously

are going to shape perhaps the direction that Syria takes now. The

German form foreign Ms. Minister says this will now increase pressure

on President Assad. Do you think that is right? Yes, Assad is now

caught between Iraq and a hard place. He cannot know what Russia

wants. His big backers are a van and pressure, they are crucial to him.

He does not survive without their support. If they had not intervened

with the air strikes and changing the dynamics in the battlefield,

Assad would've been under much greater pressure than he is now. But

it think what we're going to look at now is a situation where we are

going to see a sort of diplomatic, a peace process impose on the Assad

regime. It is not going to dictate the future for Syria itself, that is

up to the Syrian people, but the company to lead the country is in

such chaos at the moment. It is difficult to see how many groups

will agree to this. There are long ways to go in the diplomatic

process. We are now moving to Germany where the anti-immigration

party made significant gains in the election campaigning against what

they called Angola Markle's catastrophic decision to accept 1

million refugees. Here's what Angela Merkel have to say. If we are

honest, we have to say that yesterday was a difficult day for

the Christian Democrats and that is how we have been discussing it. The

dominant schemes with the refugee issue in the refugee policy. The

fact that in the eyes of the people not inappropriate or satisfactory

solution has yet been found had a big impact on the votes. A difficult

day indeed. Paying a price for her in immigration policy?

I don't think she is necessarily pay the price yet, because we still have

the general election in Germany to come, but I think this is a warning

to Angela Merkel that there are a significant number of voters in

Germany who wanted to maybe make a protest over the refugee crisis and

over Germany's handling of that refugee crisis that maybe it is

something she needs to reflect on heading into those general

elections. This is a party led by somebody who

said German police should if necessary shoot at migrants seeking

to enter the country illegally. Is that worrying? Yes, I think it is

probably going to be worrying for many people in Germany, because any

kind of moves towards support for the right wing, given the country's

history, is a very difficult and unpalatable thing for people in the

country to face up to. But we are seeing the reaction here to the

crisis, which is engulfing Europe in terms of the refugees coming from

Syria. The language of the party can be

quite worrying, but I'm not sure numerically and politically that

there is as much worry as many people think at the moment. It has

been at that time for Angela Merkel, she's herself put her heads up today

and said we know they have been unsatisfactory solution and policies

put forward on the issue of migration and immigration, so she

admits the difficulties. It's state elections, if you actually look at

the kind of number crunching at the way the parties have performed, she

has come out not too badly and so the other parties, the Greens for

example, some of the left-wing parties or come out very well

indeed. But there was no question that what has been done is highly

the sword reporter weatherization of German public opinion here --

polarisation. I'm afraid that's all we've got time for this evening.

Thank you very much for coming in. That's it for tonight. I will be

back at the same time tomorrow night, so do join me if you can.

Until then, goodbye.