23/03/2016 Scotland 2016

The Scottish election campaign starts in earnest as MSPs

I now close this meeting and this session of Parliament.

A fond farewell to Scotland's first female Presiding Officer.

A rare moment of unity and smiles before the party leaders head off

for battle, but who will be returned?

MSPs gathered at Holyrood for the last time today before

heading out onto the election campaign trail.

The dissolution of parliament comes as new research suggests people

in Scotland are keener on having a powerful Scottish Parliament

than at any time since the advent of devolution.

We'll hear more about that from Professor John Curtice

But, first, our Political editor Brain Taylor.

A public book of condolence has now been made available... Holyrood

history, Tricia Marwick presiding for the last time this term. Nicola

Sturgeon facing her final question session before the election. And, on

the throne, King Robert the Bruce, proudly recreating Scotland's past

the passing as peas. In the Chamber, though, they focused on the future.

The SNP have said they won't alter tax rate in Scotland for now. This

First Minister who has campaigned for years on the mantra that more

powers means fewer cap now refuses to use the powers to stop the cut

is. The SNP will reverse a planned tax cut for high earners but Nicola

Sturgeon said increasing the very top rate could backfire. Doing it in

the face of analysis that says that right now it could actually reduce

the amount of money we have to invest in our National Health

Service and public services would not be radical. It would be

reckless. It wouldn't be daring, it would be daft. The Lib Dems said

Scottish education would suffer as a consequence. The opportunity to

transform education is missed. That means nursery education targets will

be missed. The attainment gap in schools will keep being missed. The

First Minister said the fiscal framework meant Scotland would be

recompensed for UK tax plans. That would generate investment for

services. Patrick Harvie championed land reform. We still have hugely

concentrated patterns of land ownership in Scotland which needs to

change. MSP Stuart McMillan plays burden great anthem for common

humanity. Watching from the gallery, Sheena Wellington, who sang that

very song on Parliament's opening-day in 1999. A procession

followed the pipe at down into the garden. There they gather, those

departing and those hoping to return. Handshakes, hugs, even the

occasional selfie. And from this happy scene... Straight into the

streets. Willie Rennie joins a student protest. Ruth Davidson takes

the Conservative election message out and about. The Scottish

Conservatives don't believe we should put a sign at the border that

says higher taxes here. It puts off investment, stops jobs coming here

and we don't think people in Scotland should have to pay more

tax. Labour prepares its election pitch, and offer on tax and

spending. And the SNP must of their election candidates. Who will win?

That is your choice. And joining me now in the studio

is Professor John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow

at ScotCen Social Research. Good evening to you. Pretty lively

in the Chamber, even though it was the last day. It looks like tax and

spending will dominate the campaign. How was it likely to go down with

the voters? It is certainly important to note that this is the

first election to take place with the extensive tax powers in place in

the next parliament than before, this is an election not just about

spending which for the most part the elections have been, it has been

about which combination of more teachers, nurses and doctors do you

want. This is an election in which the parties will be arguing with

each other not only about what the money should be spent on but how it

should be raised in the first place. So far as the campaign between the

politicians is concerned, this is going to be the top issue. Whether

it is going to end up being the most important issue for the voters is

another matter because the truth is that for most voters in Scotland,

any electoral contest now is a replay of the independence

referendum in September 2014, and the opinion polls suggest that

around 85%-90% of those that voted yes in September 2014 want to vote

for the SNP much as they did 12 months ago, equally about 20% of no

voters want to do so. Insofar as people going to the polling station

is about affirming or rejecting independence, it wasn't leave great

space for the taxation issue. Is this a done deal for the SNP? Is

there any sign of a Labour revival? There are no signs of a Labour

revival. Trim the course of the last 12 months or so, Labour's vote has

been easing further south, getting lower. On average in the opinion

polls, they are doing no better than around 20% of the vote, which would

be the worst result for Labour since 1918, the first election they fought

as a wholly independent party. The truth is that things look very dark

for them. What does your latest research suggest about support for

devolution, support for independence? In one sense, it says

the obvious. It says that in the wake of the independence referendum,

support for independence is now higher than it ever has been.

ScotCen Social Research has done this, asked the same question every

year since 1999 so we can benchmark where we are with history. Having

said the obvious, however, there is a twist. Even on the standard

long-running question, only 39% of people say they are in favour of

independence, 55% say they want to finish or no Parliament at all. The

avowed support for independence is lower than the support than there

was at the ballot box. Ask another question which is simply to ask

people what should be the powers and responsibilities of the Scottish

Parliament, 51% of people, a clear record, say the Scottish Parliament

should be responsible for making all the decisions for Scotland,

including defence and foreign affairs, which of course implies

independence, although that isn't the word we use. The best we can

make of it, there's no doubt there is support for a powerful Scottish

Parliament. There are a lot of people out there who at the end of

the day would like a very powerful Scottish government that makes most

of the decisions in Scotland but they'd still like to hang on to

England. Some of those people probably voted yes 18 months ago,

some of those voted no, and the future of the debate depends on how

these people make their minds up. We heard Alex Salmond talking about how

the independence argument needs to be refurbished. Does your research

back it up? The yes side need to make further progress in persuading

people that independence would be a good idea. No doubt, they need to

make regress on persuading people of the economic benefits of

independence, albeit our research suggest they have made progress in

that regard because until Scots are convinced independence would be

economically beneficial, they won't vote for it and there weren't enough

of them convinced of that case back in September only 14. Thank you for

joining us. She was part of the first

intake of MSPs in '99, and she led them out of the Chamber

today in her final act But not before they said thank

you to Tricia Marwick. Today is the first female First

Minister of Scotland, it is a pleasure and an honour to pay

tribute to the Parliament's first female Presiding Officer. Tricia

Marwick's election was historic for that reason, but it broke new ground

in other ways as well. Not just the first woman to hold the role, Tricia

Marwick is first to have reached the office of Presiding Officer without

a university degree or a private school education, something which

she and her family should be proud of. You have left a lasting

Parliament. You've innovated at every turn. Whilst you'll be missed,

there is a legacy to proud of. It is fair to say that my fellow Fifa has

brought her unique style and approach. She's at the heart of our

Parliament, the Fifer. You've fulfilled the job with distinction

and my colleagues and I have been pleased to support you in your work.

The radical reforms you connected to make our Parliament stronger and

more effective, not least on topical questions, will stand as a permanent

legacy in this place. You can be proud of the path you have taken and

the change that you have brought. Thank you.

Just before we came on air I spoke to Tricia Marwick

Tricia Marwick, lots of warm words from across the party lines. First

Presiding Officer that was a woman. First not privately educated... What

to these firsts mean to you? Well, the seal has been broken in a number

of ways. The first woman Presiding Officer, didn't go to a private

school, very working class background. I often think of myself

as actually representing the vast majority of people in Scotland.

Quite apart from way you have come from, there has been a lot of praise

for what you have done in the job as Presiding Officer. What did you want

to change when you took the job up five years ago? I was clear I had a

reform agenda. I've been in this parliament since 1999, and I've been

not uncritical of it in that time so the opportunity in 2011 lent itself

to me in trying to make reforms in the Parliament so that we could do

our business better. Which of these reforms was the most important to

you? The most important which opened up everything else was the working

week, changed it from just a Wednesday and Thursday to Tuesday

Wednesday Thursday. By opening up to Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday, it

allowed me to introduce topical questions, which means that any

questions that arise, any big issues that arise from Thursday onwards can

get an airing in the Chamber on the Tuesday afternoon. And that has been

a fantastic examination of ministers. There was one particular

topical question where the Justice Secretary was questioned by 13

separate MSPs and Sheriff Court closures. That has never happened

before, so I'm very pleased about it. Have you met much resistance to

the reforms you've tried to introduce, like trying to change the

way the committees work, for example? It is fair to say that

reform isn't easy. And, you know, if you're going to do this, you have to

take everybody with you. It's no secret that changing the working

week and topical questions took a considerable amount of time in

convincing the business managers they should go forward. I wasn't

successful in convincing them about the changes that were needed to the

committees and the committee structures, but I think from the

comments you heard today, reform is still on the agenda, it is very much

on the agenda, I have placed it on the agenda and it is for others to

take it forward in the future. Have you any regrets about things as you

leave the job that you haven't been able to achieve? No, I think I've

done as much as I can do. I think, sometimes, you know, if you look at

the House of Commons, the right report to pay long time, and the

reforms took a long time. We need to look at ourselves and examine

ourselves and I am sure the reforms will come because they have to come.

Watching First Minister's Questions today, it is still pretty tribal in

the Chamber, is that a disappointment to? I don't think it

is going to change. The last First Minister's Questions before an

election, of course it is going to be tribal and rowdy. You expect

that. Politics, after all, is about passion. If you take the passion out

of politics, there is absolutely no point in it. But, having said that,

a difference between passion and just being downright bad to each

other, so I think we need to keep the passion by git rid of some of

the insults that fly back and forth. How difficult was it for you as

Presiding Officer when you have to remain neutral to be neutral right

throughout the referendum campaign? The referendum campaign I think was

my biggest challenge. It was so important that has Presiding Officer

I had to protect the institution, which meant I had to stop the

parties from using the Parliament from one side or the other, so we

had bands on any campaigning in the campus. Of course, it was difficult

for me. I believed in independence of my life. When I would go home at

night and my husband was out campaigning, my daughter and my son

and everybody that I know, I used to watch all the television programmes

and I used to cry myself to sleep because I couldn't go out and

campaign. Any tears leaving the job? No, surprisingly enough. I had tears

earlier on when Duncan McNeil and Alex Salmond had their speeches.

Duncan blindsided me. I didn't expect to be so emotional and I just

completely lost it. I lost it a few days ago listening to their

speeches. I was determined I wasn't going to lose it with my own speech.

It was quite good because I had a practice run and got it out of my

system. Tricia Marwick, thank you, and all the best for the future.

If Scotland had voted "Yes" in the referendum 18 months

ago, then tomorrow might well have been Independence Day.

The 24th of March 2016 was the date nominated by the Scottish Government

Of course, Better Together won the vote but, as we know,

that was far from the end of the story.

I'm joined now by Joe Pike, whose new book delves behind

the scenes of what came to be known as Project Fear.

Good evening. In the book, you quote a Better Together source comparing

its campaign to a bright focused on her wedding day, while Yes Scotland

was focused on her marriage and the life afterwards. How true was that?

I think it was completely true. There were people in Better

Together, certainly at the start, who thought it would be an

opportunity to gain glory. They thought it would look good on their

CV. In fact, it was far more difficult than that. The story

behind-the-scenes is one of infighting, arguments, tears and

swearing, and then in the final weeks, with DS ahead, there was a

huge amount of financial mismanagement. And amusing example

was that ?27,000 was spent on the victory party that Better Together

held in Glasgow. They spent a lot of money on 64 cases of white wine, 50

cases of red wine, and a few cases after the referendum- a feud weeks

after the referendum, they realised they had a considerable shortage of

money. The long term was not in their sights. After the referendum,

from all the people you have spoken to, 60 different sources, how well

do you think that Scottish Labour has understood its decline? It was

going to be very difficult for Jim Murphy. 2011 was so tough for

Scottish Labour. It was so far from success that some of them had

expected, even a couple of days before that election. John Lamb and

left the election with a grenade saying that it was being treated as

a branch of the UK party. But Jim Murphy started with one strategy and

finished with another. He started to try to convince Yes tours they could

go with Scottish Labour. The two strategies were no help at all, and

the squeeze message that the Conservatives were using, talking

about the danger of a coalition with Nicola Sturgeon really did for them.

There is a new leadership now, and I think maybe they don't understand

the historical context. Kezia Dugdale is only in her early 30s,

but they understand that things were bad for them and they need to

rebuild. In your books, you mention a surprising number of pro-UK

politicians that you spoke to taking a pessimistic view of the future. If

you look at the big names we saw taking part of the referendum

campaign, yes. It's hard to think they will play such a big role in

the next time around. Gordon Brown -- Gordon Brown has retired. Others

have lost their seats and are no longer in that world. If there is

another referendum, which looks possible, there could be a new

generation of campaigners. A lot of that political knowledge and

political history, that experience, will not be available to call upon,

although some will argue that the problems between Alistair Darling

and Gordon Brown, and the not particularly positive relationship

between Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy did not help in the campaign.

Many will be familiar with the term Project Fear in the EU referendum

campaign. What lessons have either side of the European debate learned

from the negative campaigning in the independence referendum? Before it

got busy on the campaign trail this spring, senior strategists of both

campaigns were looking to Scotland and trying to learn the lessons. The

lesson for David Cameron is not to be as negative. The key messages for

him are risk and uncertainty. The risks of leaving the EU and the

uncertainty that good cause. It's very difficult to use messages of

risk and uncertainty and be positive at the same time. That's a big

challenge. The Leave side realise that Project Fear is an effective

term. They have talked about David Cameron, about him talking down the

United Kingdom, about Britain. That has a familiar tone. He's talked

about the EU and the UK staying in it as giving the best of both

worlds. He's talked about leaving as being a leap into the unknown. It is

deja vu with Scotland. Thank you for coming in this evening.

And joining me tonight in the studio is the Times journalist,

Lindsay McIntosh, and Liam Kirkaldy, who writes for Holyrood Magazine.

Welcome. It might have felt like we were into campaigning with the

Holyrood election already. Today, Parliament dissolved and it starts

in earnest. How are the main battle ground shaping up? Is starting to

look interesting. Politics in Scotland have been defined along

constitutional lines for so long. But with new powers coming to

Scotland on tax, we are starting to have a more traditional right and

left the bait in Scotland again. It's going back to what you want to

do with your tax powers and your public spending. It is shaping up to

be a tax and spend election which talks about income tax, council tax

and investing in health and education. The Scotland Bill passed

today. Lots of new powers coming to the parliament. Will we see a

difference in Holyrood and the role of MSPs when they return next term?

It has changed the political landscape a bit. The Tories will

feel they have a bit more of an opportunity. They have traditionally

been hamstrung by the fact that they were not in charge of gathering

revenue. There's no real incentive to vote for a party that promises

low spending if they are not going to tax you less. That will help a

bit. It will change the nature of it across-the-board. We have seen a

fairly steady as you go approach. Is the emphasis going to be on the fact

they are a safe pair of hands, the SNP? Absolutely. Nicola Sturgeon

held a rally today for her candidates. She said, when I get

these new powers, if I am First Minister come me, I will use them

wisely not recklessly. She is living up to that rhetoric. With council

tax, she has just fiddled at the top end of it and not done anything

rhetoric. She has offered a very small tax cut to people on the 40p

tax rate, but she has refused to pass on the more generous cut that

George Osborne is offering. There really is merit to that at the

moment. This is the first time the Scottish Parliament has these

powers. There is an economic argument for steady as she goes, but

it does not match up to the rhetoric we were hearing from the SNP in the

run-up to the independence referendum. Alex Salmond said today

it is time to look again at the currency options for an independent

Scotland. The shadow of the referendum lives on. He says the

independence case needs refurbishment so it cannot be

gazumped by opponents in any future referendum. It is an interesting

choice of words. Is it his way of saying he got it wrong? I am not

sure what he is saying. There was a widespread argument at the time that

much of the Yes campaign, the currency wasn't the way to go. The

answer produced by the SNP in the White Paper, that is. He isn't

coming up with a new argument, just saying that he will argue it better.

Nicola has announced she will come up with some sort of past forced

come up with a new argument for independence in the summer, so maybe

we will find out later. How essential was the currency issue to

the outcome of the referendum? It was absolutely crucial. The SNP were

not able to convince a lot of people that they knew what they were doing

with the currency come tomorrow, come the Independence Day as it

would have been under the SNP. I think the options that were open to

the SNP at the time, the currency union, the euro, the new currency,

neither of them were particularly palatable. Alex Salmond has

recognised that, and he is going to try, either himself or within the

SNP, to make a stronger argument. I think he may be shifting towards

using the pound without agreement. He has had some bolstering for that

from the likes of Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of

England. He said this year he thought that was the best option.

This is interesting timing. Nicola Sturgeon is raising the issue of

referendum again. Is this to keep the party faithful onside? Do

ordinary voters have the stomach for this? I think a lot of people in the

SNP would want to hear some sort of strategy on how they will move

forward for independence. There is a widespread acceptance that they

cannot afford to lose another referendum. There is a chorus within

the party wondering why they didn't come up with another answer before

now. The outcome will be linked to the outcome of the EU one. I think

it is down to public opinion. They need 50 plus in the polls or 60 plus

in the polls to be sure of winning. Before we go. There were fond

farewells to Tricia Marwick as Presiding Officer today. Did she

make a difference? Yes, into particular ways. One, who she is,

female, state educated, not a University graduate, and she has

reached the high echelons of the Scottish Parliament. The other is

the reforms she has made, giving more time to backbenchers and

introducing topical questions. She can be proud of the changes she made

in her tenure. People really like kosher Marwick. She was seen as

down-to-earth. -- Tricia Marwick. A lot of people feel closer to the

Scottish Parliament in a lot of ways, and I think that's thanks to

Tricia Marwick. Tomorrow night, the Scottish Leaders

Debate is over on BBC One Scotland Join me here afterwards

with reaction and