07/09/2016 Scotland 2016

The First Minister calls for a meaningful role in the UK's

Brexit preparations - but are her demands

Good evening and welcome to Scotland 2016.

Nicola Sturgeon says her government won't be "window-dressing

in a talking shop" when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

We'll speak to one of her predecessors, Gordon Wilson,

who says it's unlikely she can't have Europe and independence.

There's a lot of consensus at Holyrood over the Scottish

Government's Brexit position, but will that last, once discussions

And the top man at Ryanair talks to us about the impact of leaving

the EU, and his belief that scrapping air passenger duty will

The VAT receipts will be about four times the lost income. So scrap the

tax and let the airlines get on with it.

Despite the lack of clarity on what Brexit really means

and the lack of detail on the deal that the UK government wants

to negotiate with Europe, what is becoming clearer is the main

European fault line between Holyrood and Westminster.

Nicola Sturgeon reiterated today her desire to keep

Scotland in the single market, despite Brexit.

The Prime Minister refused several times to commit to such a position.

Will Scottish ministers have a "decision-making" role

in the UK's Brexit preparations, as the First Minister calls for,

or is she on a collision course with Westminster?

At Holyrood today, the First Minister listed all the things she

wants to safeguard during Brexit negotiations. For example, to

protect the benefits of the single market, for our businesses, to

protect workers' rights, places in our universities, the continued

ability of our students to participate in Erasmus and the

enhanced security which comes from Europol and the European arrest

warrant. But Nicola Sturgeon stressed most important item on the

list - continued access to the single market. I accept that the

Prime Minister has a mandate in England and Wales to leave the EU,

but I do not accept she has a mandate to take any part of the UK

out of the single market choice questions to the Prime Minister! Not

surprisingly, that theme was pick up by the SNP at Westminster. So far,

we've just had waffle. So may I ask the Prime Minister a simple

question, but it's quite important - does she want the UK to remain fully

within the single market? What I want for the UK is that we put into

practice the vote that was taken by the people of the United Kingdom to

leave the European Union, that we get the right deal for trade in

goods and services with the European Union, in the new relationship that

we will be building with them. Let me ask her again - does she want the

United Kingdom to be fully part of the European single market, you saw

no? The right honourable gentleman does not seem to quite understand

what... What the vote on the 23rd of June was about. The United Kingdom

will leave the European Union, and we will build a new relationship

with the European Union. Back at Holyrood, no getting away from the

single market. Previously, her stated aim had been to retain our EU

membership. But on Monday, the First Minister appeared to be only seeking

access to the single market. Can she comment on that shift and confirm

whether or not she has received legal advice on the issue? There is

no shift in the Scottish Government's position. But in the

background, a fundamental question - which union, which market, is most

important to Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon says that leaving this

trading bloc is bad for Scotland. So why the she believe that leaving one

which is four times as important in terms of trade is the answer to any

of today's questions? Why was it that two years ago, she said to the

people of Scotland that the only way to guarantee membership of the

European Union was to vote against independence, and now that her party

has taken us to the brink of exit, she is still trying to say that

independence in no circumstances is the answer to that. MPs on the

Scottish Affairs Committee at Westminster were told today that

there is little prospect of Scotland doing a bespoke trade deal with

Europe if the UK leaves the EU. Experts told the committee there's

plenty more to work out. Could you please finish the sentence - Brexit

means... Brexit means a massive constitutional headache for the

United Kingdom. And it is that constitutional headache which

politicians will have to negotiate as part of Brexit. Callisto because

to the prospect of a second independence referendum as a

bargaining chip. If she doesn't get the deal

she wants, either full membership for Scotland or membership

of the single market, One of her predecessors as SNP

leader reckons that Gordon Wilson, who was leader

until 1990, thinks the First Minister is unlikely to be able

to have Europe and independence. I don't think it's feasible to get

independence within Europe, even with another referendum, because you

have to wait for the decision of some 27 other countries, any one of

whom could of course veto the application. There's a lot of

goodwill towards Scotland for the way in which the country voted in

the recent referendum, but goodwill is not necessarily capable of being

back. And that is the problem which would face any Scottish Government.

You've written previously that there is no way of saving Scotland's EU

membership and independence should be off the table. I had you would

say that given that you supported Leave during the Brexit campaign.

But isn't Nicola Sturgeon right to use the prospect of another

independence referendum as a mechanism, as she would put it, to

hold Westminster's foot to the fire one? The problem with that is that

Westminster, in the shape of Theresa May, who is flipped like in her

attitudes, has read the opinion polls in Scotland. They have seen

that there is not a majority for independence. That of course could

be overtaken in a campaign, but equally, that desire for a second

referendum at this time is not manifest in the Scottish electorate.

They can read the evidence, and because of that, Scotland does not

have much of a negotiating stance. That's one of the reasons why I

suggested that the best course for the First Minister and the Scottish

Government would be to try and do a deal with Northern Ireland, with the

Republic of Ireland and so on, for a Celtic corridor. That would be

within the United Kingdom and would not necessarily be dealt with in the

same way as independence. Independence would be a wonderful

way of extorting concessions from Westminster, if Westminster

genuinely thought there was something to fear. You talk about

forging this Celtic 4-door - Howard that actually work? Would it keep

the country in the single market after Brexit? Well, dust must be the

objective. We do not know what the British Government intends to do,

and I suspect they do not know themselves. It depends upon the

attitude taken by the European Union, they are the other partners

in any negotiation. This is a scheme which I've come up with, whereby the

Republic of Ireland is very worried about the border with Northern

Ireland, the custom situation, and of course for that to be a

reunification referendum. That's something which might induce the

British Government to take some action on. There's no reason why

they can't do a deal like that. There was one done similarly with

Greenland about 30 years ago. The European Union, if it is of a mind,

that is, is infinitely flexible in devising solutions. I think the main

problem would come from the British garment, which would not wish to see

Scotland treated in any other way than the rest of the UK. The trouble

for them of course, is that they have got Northern Ireland to deal

with. 38% of Scots who voted backed Leave. It is suggested 36% of those

were SNP voters. Would that 36% rather be out of Europe and part of

the UK or out of the UK and part of Europe, as Nicola Sturgeon says?

Well, who can tell? For those of us who want independence, yes, we would

be prepared to do all sorts of cartwheels in order to get to its.

But there are others who don't believe that the European Union is

the best way forward, and amongst nationalists, that is, and they

might not vote for independence in those circumstances. And I also

mention one thing which has never come out in the whole business? And

that is the Lisbon Treaty. And the reason why I voted Leave was because

I did not want to be involved in a federal Europe. Nobody ever

mentioned that during the campaign, did they? What are the consequences

of holding a quick referendum? There are some calling for that in the

SNP, and your party losing? Well, of course, that would postpone any

further decision on independence indefinitely. I think any cautious

intelligent politician would have to do their sums. It could very well be

that the situation could change in the run-up to leaving the European

Union, because if the conditions, for example, do not favour Scotland,

then there could be a reaction. I will give you one example - in 1973,

Edward Heath cordoned off and sacrificed Scotland's 200 miles of

fishing waters to the Common Fisheries Policy. Now, the main

objective of the British Government was the financial industry in

London, the car industry in the Midlands and the north of England,

and we may find some of our main industries or commerce not looked

after properly. So, a lot depends on the deal that will be done. And that

we do not know at this stage. Gordon Wilson, thank you very much for

joining us. I'm joined now from Edinburgh

by the SNP's Mairi Evans and Scottish Labour's Europe

spokesman Lewis Macdonald. Mairi Evans, should Scotland have a

veto over any deal the UK does? I think we are obviously a part of the

UK, we can play a vitally important role here. The fact remains that

Scotland voted to remain within the EU. Should that give Scotland the

right to veto? I think that should be considered, yes. Absolutely.

Lewis Macdonald, given there is consensus at Holyrood over much of

what the first minute is saying, would you back a veto? I don't think

veto is the right way to look at this. This is about the whole of the

United Kingdom, and the united government needs to consult and take

on board the views of the devolved administrations within the UK,

including the Scottish Government as well as Wales and Northern Ireland

and London. So that means Labour's position is that you're happy to put

us come as she said at the mercy of Westminster's decisions, no matter

how damaging? Yorker not at all. What we are keen to do is to get the

best possible outcome for Scotland and for the rest of Britain. What

that means is not heading off at the very beginning of the whole process

to try to state out a separate Scottish position. It is actually

about using the power and influence of the Scottish Government, and

others, to try and get the United Kingdom government to come to the

right position. We've seen today very clearly just how divided the

Conservative Party in Westminster remains. The Prime Minister, the new

Prime Minister, who papered over the cracks very successfully over the

summer, as soon she comes back to Parliament and is asked the question

about what her objective is in the negotiation, is not able to say so.

That means that there is an opportunity to influence policy, and

the outcome. I think it would be wrong for the Scottish element to

walk away from that and to declare that independence was the only

route. Mairi Evans, can we possibly be a member of the single market and

not a member of the EU, as the First Minister seems to be suggesting? I

suppose we really don't know what is possible at the moment, as was

hinted at in Prime Minister's Questions today. The standard line

from the Tories is that Brexit means Brexit. We have heard no other

detail other than that. I think we have to do whatever we can to make

sure that Scotland remains a part of the single market, because that is

going to be vital to our economy. They are being told at the moment

that unless they sign up for the free movement of Labour, then the

single market is not open to them, the Swiss. That would be the same

position for Scotland and it would have consequences for our Borders,

wouldn't it? It could very well do that. I think what we see from the

Tories is that they want to have their cake and eat it. We see the

infighting, they can't decide what priority they want to have first,

whether they focus on immigration or whether they focus on access to the

market. So, it is just one of these situations, we can't have both. And

at some point we are going to have to make that decision as to what is

the most important for Scotland. And that would be access to the single

market. And a vital element of that for us is the free movement of

people within that. I think that will be the hard line for the Tories

to take. And again, they have to decide whether it is the free market

or the single market. Lewis McDonald, you talked about

confusion and the Tories but let us talk about the Labour position.

Jeremy Corbyn said he would not support a single market unless there

was reforming the EU but then there was a clarification that he would

press for membership of the single market. Are you clear on the Labour

position? I think it is clear in the sense that what Jeremy Corbyn has

said is what he has said throughout the process. He came to Aberdeen a

week before the referendum and said he was in favour of Britain European

Union but also in favour of reform of the European Union and that is no

great surprise if he reiterates that point today. The important thing in

the context of this discussion is the view of the Scottish Labour

Party and they have been clear that we want the Scottish Government to

go and explore the options, to look at the kind of that Gordon Wilson

was talking about earlier, options which allow Scotland to maintain

access to the benefits of our European relationships, we want that

to happen in the Scottish to be transparent about that. If the

Tories at Westminster can't tell us what their objective is, we at least

want to know what Scottish Government is Saint UK Government.

Is the prospect of a second independence referendum a

deal-breaker? It is not something we support which is very clear. It is

in our manifesto that we do not support a second independence

referendum. Nicola Sturgeon has been clear and she has talked about it to

the party faithful last week but she barely mentioned it today. The real

test will be how actively she and her colleagues seek the kind of

outcome we want and that they want. Time is tight so I will bring in

Marietta -- Mairi Evans. Are you in danger of shattering the consensus

in Holyrood that exists because of this country -- constant

introduction of the second independence referendum? The Colts

the problem lies that this is not brought about the SNP but by other

parties. Yesterday you are legislating for it. Just after the

result of the EU referendum there was cross-party support for the

First Minister to look at all available options. We are not

looking at all available options if independence isn't at least on the

table, but it is certainly not the starting point for this debate and

that was made clear by the First Minister, absolutely clear. Thank

Ryanair's chief executive Michael O'Leary was in Edinburgh

today announcing new Scottish routes for his airline.

Our Business editor Douglas Fraser caught up with him afterwards

to ask him about Brexit and the Scottish Government's plans

We will continue to invest in and grow the business here in Scotland

but I have to say the growth will be much faster and the investment

bigger if either UK had voted to stay in Europe. Scotland is held

back by other things, APD which is opposed here from London, it poses a

serious, it holds back our ability to add more routes and bring more

price sensitive visitors here to Scotland. There is no reason to wait

until 2018, the Irish government scrapped the travel tax in 2016.

Travel shot up by a large percent and Scotland can share in that kind

of growth. We go into years of uncertainty about Brexit. You are

announcing new routes for Edinburgh and Glasgow, what is the future for

Prestwick? APD has really hammered Prestwick. A few years ago we were

doing nearly 2.5 million passengers between Prestwick in London and that

route has nearly disappeared now. We want to offer ?10 airfares but the

taxes ?13 which is a huge. There are not the number of passengers willing

to pay that kind of tax. You say there would be arise in business if

there was an abolition of air passenger duty. What of the Scottish

Government got it halved? What we have said publicly is that if you

scrap it altogether we will double our traffic here in Scotland. We

will go from 5 million passengers a year to 10 million passengers a year

within two years and there will be huge investment in Scotland by

Ryanair. There is no reason to keep half of it! If they keep half of it

there will be a lot less growth, we will still have the same problem.

You are imposing a rate that goes down to ?6 50, but we want to charge

a ?10 airfares and that is still a ?65 -- 65% rate of tax. For the

small amount of revenue you are bringing in you would be better off

to scrap the tax altogether and take us up on the offer to double our

traffic. If we grow to 10 million passengers in two years the receipts

from the visitors spent will be about four times the lost APD, so

scrap the tax and let the airlines and airports get on with doubling

the numbers here in Scotland. Straight after the referendum

results about Brexit you said that you are going to pivot away from UK

routes to other parts of Europe. Are you still saying that, given that

the economic consequences don't look quite as bad now as they did

immediately after the results? I don't share the view that the UK

economy is doing very well. It has had a temporary boost because

sterling has collapsed post-Brexit. That can last for a few months

thereafter companies like Ryanair, you saw the Japanese meeting in

China last week and those companies are postponing investment decisions

in the UK and regrettably switching those decisions await a continental

Europe. Brexit has and will continue to be a disaster for the UK economy

until someone can come up with some clarity on what the UK's trading

relationships with Europe will be at real challenge is that no one

in the British government has a clue what the hell it is they want and in

Europe no one is willing to give them very much either. The offer

from Europe has been entirely consistent, you can have access to

the single market but you will concede free movement of people, in

which case you won't have what the hell the Brexiteers were looking for

in the first place. A plain speaking Michael O'Leary there.

Here with me now to discuss all of today's Brexit news

are the Sunday Herald's Tom Gordon and the political

We will start with Brexit. What did you make of the various positions we

have from Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May? I am not surprised at

all that Theresa May said there would not be a running commentary on

Brexit because I think there would be a national panic if we saw what

was going on in Whitehall at the moment. She does want to keep her

negotiating hand closed and we heard from Nicola Sturgeon that she is

getting frustrated, she can't see what is happening in Whitehall, but

she wouldn't be in the mood to disclose her negotiating hand

either. She says she doesn't have a clue what is going on rather than

she does not want to reveal her negotiating hand. I'm sure the civil

service are doing things, there is a clash between the Brexiteer

ministers who want different things. They are going on on frolics of

their own. David Davis said it was improbable the UK would stay in the

single market and then he was corrected by Theresa May. There is

definitely confusion. Nicola Sturgeon complains about the

confusion but she probably has an eye to it working in her favour in

the long-term if the Brexit process gets more acrimonious and more

chaotic and she can say this bunch cannot run a whelk stall so let's

get out. Can Nicola Sturgeon have a consistent position? She was talking

about keeping us in the EU are now she is talking access to the single

market. I think it was the day after the Brexit result but she said it

was highly likely there would be a second independence referendum and

she then had a week tour around Strasbourg and Brussels at various

heads of state. Today we are talking about the single market and the

language has modified because Nicola is obviously trying to keep our

options open as much as possible. Like Theresa May, I suspect, Nicola

doesn't have any idea where this is going. Article 50 is yet to be

invoked when negotiations begin week, and the politicians, will have

a clear idea of where this takes us. Let us talk about business. We heard

from Michael O'Leary and one sector of the business, of business, is

particularly worried about or has been worried about its effect, and

that is the food and drink sector. It is booming and sales are growing

year-on-year and according to a bank is to survey today businesses are

expecting to create thousands of jobs over the next five years.

Whilst many sales are outside Europe, what could happen

if Scotland does leave the single market?

Well, here's what one of Scotland's leading economists had to say.

If you take salmon farming, it is worth millions of pounds to the

Scottish economy and at the moment it has free access to the main

market which is continental Europe. The Norwegians salmon has to pay 2%

tariff which is within the EEE a but you can only join the EEA if you

allow free movement of labour and if you are not prepared to do that then

you go to a different arrangement and then salmon imports from the

rest of the world have an 8% tariff into Europe so you would be looking

at a significantly higher tariff. That is just one commodity there but

it shows the complexity of what we might end up dealing with. It is

fiendishly difficult. There was a more optimistic report today from

the Bank of Scotland about the food and drink sector and said it was

buoyant and resilient and half of the companies surveyed said that

post Brexit their estimates would go up and only a quarter thought they

would go down. Interestingly 90% of those companies were trading off

provenance, off the good reputation of Scotland and the reputation of

Scottish food and drink and those companies cannot really go anywhere

else. Michael O'Leary and Ryanair is moving players -- planes outside of

the UK because of Brexit said different companies will take

different options but for the big companies they might move out of the

UK and Scotland but smaller companies are locked in. They are

looking to politicians for answers and as we pointed out earlier we are

not getting many answers upward movement and things could get quite

rocky, as to reasonable to doubt, for these businesses. This survey

was carried out after the Brexit referendum result and it is not just

in spite of that but because of that that many of these food producers in

Scotland are buoyed up with a new confidence. They are looking at a

world unfettered by EU red tape and regulations perhaps and many of them

want to seize the opportunity, as Theresa May said -- Theresa May

said, let's make Britain and Ireland trading nation and a global leader.

I want to talk about global politics in America and in the Dallas morning

News they said there is only one serious candid on the presidential

ballot in September, we want to recommend Hillary Clinton. It is not

fun day at a politician and they say they did not come to the decision

easily and they haven't recommended a Democrat since before World War II

and that is nearly 20 elections. That part of Texas is backing

Hillary Clinton and things are getting interesting. Very

interesting, and their rationale was that they did not think that Donald

Trump was true Republican and they thought he was a one-man menace. If

you sit back at the history of this paper, to knock back a Democrat for

75 years means that in the infamous 1964 election they did not support

President Lyndon Johnson who was Texas born and bred and was then

standing against Barry Goldwater who was bonkers. Even then they did not

back the Democrats, but now they are backing the Democrat and it says

quite a bit. A lot of people say Hillary Clinton could be issue in

but a CNN poll says Donald Trump has a 2% lead nationally. Another

interesting poll for NBC says that when it comes to those in the

military he has a 19 point lead. He announced potential big spending for

the military which could explain it, but things are not cut and dried

here. They are not. For many people in the Beltway and elsewhere in the

States and here and around the world, you can't write them off that

easily. We might find it difficult to see him as a US president but he

has a lot of support amongst the disenfranchised and unemployed and

blue-collar Americans. The other thing the Dallas morning News

editorial said was that they said Hillary Clinton has her shortcomings

and we know that a lot of people are really struggling to vote for her.

She is actually facing problems with some of the third-party candidates

like the Greens who are taking votes away from her. We saw that happen

with Al Gore against George W Bush. She has a problem with that and you

can never say never with drab but in America it is not a clear-cut

majority that takes it in America, it is the electoral college and

Hillary seems to have a strong performance in these states where

the electoral college comes from. Do you think he could do it? I think he

could do it. It all depends, I believe, on how he performs against

Hillary come the presidential televised debates. We watch those

with interest. Thank you both for joining us this evening.

I'm back again tomorrow night, usual time.

So do please join me then, bye bye.

In an unforgiving time, Scotland had its heroes.

Then, as our sense of Scottishness flourished,

our football saw unprecedented decline.

Scotland over-estimate how good they are.

They are a limited group. They're an honest, solid, limited group.

We've now got to look forward to the dreams. We can do it.