Part 1 Scotland Decides

The people of Scotland have voted in record numbers, on the future of

their nation. Will they make history by choosing the path of

independence, or have they decided to stay within the United Kingdom?

We're standing by to bring you the people's verdict.

For 300 years, Scotland has been joined in political union with

England, a United Kingdom now which includes Wales and Northern Ireland.

Tonight, we will discover, after this very highly-charged referendum

campaign, whether that union with Scotland is to be dissolved. It is

without question the biggest democratic decision in British

history, with profound implications for the people of Scotland and of

course for the other three nation of the UK. Alex Salmond, the First

Minister of Scotland, has spent a lifetime probably dreaming of this

opportunity. His Yes Campaign was way behind in the polls for quite a

long time, just a months ago things changed. The situation seemed to be

adjusting, in his favour, victory has seemed within reach. But he's

faced the revived No campaign in the past few weeks, driven principally

by Labour's Gordon Brown and with the appearance too of other

Westminster party leaders. With us in the studio tonight we have senior

representatives of the Yes and No camps. We will talk to them shortly.

They are set ling in for a long night after what has been a very

long campaign. Good to have you with us. Alongside those who have been

reporting on every twist and turned of this rather intense and sometimes

fractious campaign. We will hear from some who have agonised too over

which way to vote. They are here keeping us company. We will find out

how they made up their minds. Good to see them with us. Our results

team, waiting patiently to get those results to your scenes as soon as

possible. We have experts examining the numbers looking at all the

trends, trying to predict which way things are likely to go. The team,

lead of course, by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.

Good to have John with us. We will be with him in a second. To guide us

through this electoral landscape, to weigh up what is at stake, we have

my good colleague, Jeremy Vine. Jeremy. Huw, huge questions in the

balance tonight, not least what happens to Scotland's oil. Is there

enough to fund an independent Scotland? Also, welcome back what

about the currency -- what about the currency, will Scotland be able to

share the pound? How about Trident. The nuclear deterrent is in

Scotland. The SNP has promised to remove it. Some absolutely massive

issues in play, in the coming hours. Let us give you a real sense of our

location here at the headquarters of BBC Scotland, we're at Pacific Quay

on the banks of the Clyde. Many of you will remember the venues. Great

venues for the hugely successful Commonwealth Games this summer. This

is where we're based tonight. This is where we will be broadcasting the

result of this all-important referendum on the nation's future.

Well, the counting of course is the all-important process now. The

polling stations across Scotland opened at 7.00am this morning. They

closed at 10.00pm, 46 minutes ago, early indications are the turnout

has been exceptionally high. We know a record 4.3 million people were

registered to vote. That is 97% of those eligible to do so. Including,

for the first time, many thousands of 16 and 17-year-olds. Well, the

leaders, out early this morning, casting their votes. Alex Salmond,

the First Minister, voting in his home patch of Aberdeenshire.

Alistair Darling, who has been leading the Better Together

Campaign, in his home area of Edinburgh. That is where his

parliamentary constituency is. Also voting today, the Deputy First

Minister, Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP and she was voting in her Scottish

Parliamentary constituency in Glasgow. So, all of those votes

carefully cast. There we are in Fife, Gordon Brown, the former Prime

Minister, who, in the last two weeks, has become a very prominent

figure in the campaign. These are the scenes that really matter now

then. 32 counting centres across Scotland. That is Renfrewshire where

they are busy at work. We are cover counts from the Highlands down to

Dundee, Glasgow and Edinburgh, down to the Scottish Borders. On the way

we will pay a visit, for example, to Falkirk, to see what that will tell

us about the potential result. And, we'll be in Angus too. Angus, with a

long tradition of sending SNP representatives to Westminster. An

interesting prospect there. We will be very, very keen to see what the

early signals are from Angus. All of those counts busy and verifying

papers. Having a look clearly in the first half or so. We will get some

sense, probably, of kind of turnout involved. A very dramatic moment

tonight. I should say, of course, don't forget, that although people

are keeping a close eye on things here in Scotland, just imagine the

intense interest too in Downing Street? David Cameron will be

following the events there for us and probably will have something to

say about them early in the morning. With me our political editor, Nick

Robinson, who will be with us throughout the night and the BBC's

Sarah Smith. She has followed every day of the campaign. Good to have

you both with us. I suppose, I want you, Sarah, at this stage, given

that you have been, you know, on top of all of this material, there has

been lots of claim and counter claim, let us put that to one side.

What does tonight mean? It's hard to exaggerate the enormous importance

of this vote tonight, not just for Scotland, but for the whole of the

UK. The Scottish people who voted today made the most important

political decision of their life times. They are not just deciding

who will will run things for the next few years. They have decided

the fate of the whole of the United Kingdom for quite possibly hundreds

of years to come. The question was - should Scotland be an independent

country, yes or no? If Scotland votes Yes to that, that is the end

of Great Britain. There continue to be a United Kingdom of England,

Wales and Northern Ireland. Britain will be no more. There will be two

separate countries sharing these islands. That will throw British

politics into complete turmoil it will utterly transform Scotland.

Scotland's always seen itself as a distinct nation, but it's a very

different matter to be an independent country to take all the

decisions yourself and live with the consequences. The Yes Campaign have

argued that country would be a more equal, more fair, more just society,

Better Together have told us, it would be a less prosperous country

that probably couldn't afford the promises made by the Yes Campaign.

We will see tonight what Scotland has decided. Even if it's a No vote,

huge changes coming. The UK party leaders have promised more powers to

the Scottish Parliament. A massive constitutional shake-up across the

whole of the UK it will affect all of these British Isles. Thank you. A

sense of the magnitude of the decision we will find out about in

the early hours? If it's a Yes vote we know that everything is thrown

up. Let us talk about the economy briefly. Pound, oil, debt, to be

done. Britain's standing in the world. It's place at the United

Nations, the role in the EU? The nature of its defence forces, and in

NATO. And, Huw, even if it's not a Yes, there is a question mark over

the nature of power throughout the United Kingdom. Not just here in

Scotland, but elsewhere. This began as a referendum simply about

independence. I say "simply" it's a huge enough question as it is. It

turned into a referendum on power. It turned into a referendum on the

whole political establishment. Part of the reason this has run away with

itself this campaign, this sense that the Westminster establishment

simply did not predict what was going to take place in the last few

weeks, has been because it's been a verdict in part on them. OK. Nick,

more later and Sarah too. We will talk to our guests who have joined

us. I should point out one thing, which is rather important. If you

are waiting for an exit poll, well, there is no easy way to say this,

you're not going to get one. This is a unique event. It's a one-off. We

don't believe there is a tried and tested method of doing an exit poll

for a referendum on this kind of scale. So that's the reason we don't

have an exit poll for you. We are going to have to wait, in the old

fashioned way, for the votes to be counted, real votes, to be counted

in those 32 areas and the final result announced by the Chief

Counting Officer, in Edinburgh. Given the extremely high levels of

voter registration, it would take a very brave person really to start

making any predictions at this stage am we want the certainty, let me say

this now, the certainty of seeing real votes counted and official

results being declared before we say anything for certain. That is how it

is going to be. Our team of BBC presenters, at the counts, 32

counts, led by colleague, Andrew Marr, who is at the count in the

nation's capital, Ingliston, on the outskirts of Edinburgh. Andy, your

thoughts on what is ahead of us tonight's? This is where it will

happen, Huw, politicians, campaigners, journalists from all

around Scotland are meeting here at Ingliston for the final total count.

We have the world's media here. It's an extraordinary place. I have to

say to you, a historic night, not a historic building. We are all

basically meeting in a large, steel box. It has all the architectural

charisma of a cold store in Slough. Behind me is the count going on in

Edinburgh. The second biggest count in the Scottish referendum. And the

news from the ballot stations is that the turnout here is

astonishingly high. Really quite remarkable. I don't quite know why

all the people it there are wearing hi-vis vests it looks like a Police

Federation tea dance. That will is going on behind me. That is the

Edinburgh count. On the other side of the hall is the podium where, at

some point in the night, we will find out the fate of Scotland and

the United Kingdom when we get those totals. That will go on all night am

I don't suppose we will get the real results until 5.00am-6.00am. By then

I hope we have Alistair Darling, Alex Salmond, and all the

politicians who count. Huw. Andy, before we let you go. At this stage,

before we get a single vote announced, Sarah and Nick have

already underlined for us what they think is at stake. Given your

heritage, I really do want to ask you what tonight means for you and

what framework you would put tonight's decision? I have to say, I

think this is a campaign like no other we've seen in my lifetime.

It's a kind of pieceful, popular revolution against power as usual.

Against the Westminster establishment. As Nick was saying.

It's been a campaign where you have had to go on to social media

websites to get some sense of the extraordinary energy coursing

through this country. Nothing has been seen like this in Scotland or m

Britain in the 20th Century. Thank you very much. Andrew Marr leading

our team at the 32 local authority area counts tonight. We will have

reaction from Wales and Northern Ireland where there is great

interest in tonight's outcome. The future governance of the United

Kingdom at stake. There is interest too among Scottish communities

around the world. We will have reaction from Westminster a an

among world leaders who will ponder how tonight's result might alter the

United Kingdom's standing. It's useful at this stage to remind

ourselves how the voting systems work in a referendum like this and

how does it difficult from other contests. Let us go to Jeremy.

Well, the voting takes place across 32 areas of Scotland.

Later, when we show the results, it's green for Yes, and red for No.

Can we look for some clues as to which way these councils have gone?

If I reorder these boxes, according to the European election result in

2014. This is what it looks like. Bear in mind, different issues in

that election. Also, very low turnout, 30% compared to the amazing

figures of turnout we have seen today. This is what you see. The

councils, coloured in the colour of the party that came first in their

area. Red is SNP. Sorry, yellow SNP, red is Labour, blue Conservative.

Orange, the Lib Dems in the islands there. We are looking at the SNP

voting councils. We are looking for clues. That is all we are doing.

Wondering whether these SNP voting councils will vote most strongly for

independence. What I have done now, I have ordered the council boxes

here according to the strength of SNP support. The strongest

supporting SNP area, the Western Isles. These are the SNP heartlands

from the European elections earlier this year. Come on down and look at

the other councils. As we go down these boxes, the yellow fades,

doesn't it, we get grey towards the end. Dumfries and Galloway, I see

Scottish Borders there, on the border with England, not SNP

strongholds at all. We might be able to say, might we not, you are more

likely to see Yes votes in these areas. If we start to say No votes

in Dundee City or Angus maybe the Yes Campaign is in trouble. Maybe.

We are just guessing. Looking for clues here. I can show you another

way of analysing the character of these voting areas. These are

councils by birthplace. We are look here at the councils where the most

number of people proportionately were born in Scotland and stayed.

And North Lanarkshire is number one. These are the councils where people

tend to be more Scottish. They were born here, stayed here. If you go

all the way down, you see the purple fade. Aberdeenshire City, right at

the back of the box there, lots of foreign oil workers there. Far fewer

people who were born in Aberdeenshire City and are staying.

We know that this is an index for voting SNP, but voting for

independence. It's more likely if you were born in Scotland and stayed

in Scotland that you vote for independence. Again, we might say

North Lanarkshire, west decommission Barton more likely to vote Yes on

that basis. If they come in No or tight for Yes we could draw lessons

from that. One more for you quickly. Another interesting index here. This

is councils by social grade, so the lower social grades, people on

benefits, manual workers and so on. Again, Inverclyde is interesting,

and north Ayrshire, all the way down here. Have a look at Glasgow, one of

the biggest councils, the labour supporters, are they going to follow

their leadership or this index that we have seen which would suggest

lower social grades vote Yes. We'll see. We are looking for clues. It's

going to be fascinating, Huw. Thank you very much.

Jeremy Vine with a little more explanation. Part of the army of

hard workers we have here at the BBC headquarters waiting for the results

to come in. They'll be feeding the results into our system, having a

look at them, combing through them, looking for any trends. We know

there's a record number of voters registered, will that translate into

a very high turnout? You have to go back to 1951 to get a turnout of

over 81%. I'm delighted that our friends on BBC World, our global

audience, has just joined us, thank you very much for joining us.

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde university is with me.

Thank you very much for joining us. Nice to be here. We are going to

hang on your every word tonight. At this very early stage, what are the

early signals you are likely to get? The early signals is some indication

of the turnout and arguably in a sense, that's one of the two most

important results of the night. One of the things the politicians hope

to get from this referendum is a decisive result. One of the things

that will help everybody ensures and agrees it's decisive is that the

vast majority of people in Scotland have voted, so there can't be a

situation where not enough people have voted. Very early days but the

indications we have got from the odd count is it does look as though we

do have a very high turnout and maybe that 81% record figure may be

surpassed. To that extent, the good news is this, this may well be a

referendum that everybody accepts is decisive. The bad news is, a lot of

people that have voted, the count is going to take a little longer and

the earliest expectations we had was 1 o'clock, it could get later. Don't

say that, John, I want people to keep on watching because we'll have

a big story to tell. When the results come in, even the earliest

ones, he give us some signals. Let's think about what you might expect as

one of the earliest results and what that might tell us? One of the

smaller counties in Scotland or councils in Scotland is Clark man

nan, that would give us a pretty good indication that perhaps either

no or yes has won respectively -- Clackmannanshire. It wouldn't a

million miles away to find that Scotland is what we expected. One

thing we need to emphasise is that because we have never had a

referendum on this subject before, we can't be entirely sure which of

the places were for example the Yes Side are going to do well and where

are they going to do badly. Normally you can say, we have got Sunderland,

it's a strong Labour place was the swing is 2 or 3% and you can draw

inferences. It will be much more difficult in this referendum. We get

much more circumspect. We mange that Clackmannanshire may not be that far

away from how Scotland votes as a whole, but there's no way in which

you can be sure of that. Final point at this stage, John, Glasgow,

Edinburgh, hundreds of thousands of votes. We are going to have to wait

for those, aren't we? Indeed. The bigger the council, the more

important it is asth and the longer we are going to have to wait. Don't

be surprised if we get a lot of results in before we get anything in

the way of a clear indication because the big results are from the

larger councils. Lots of big places to come.

We'll be talking lots during the night. Thank you very much. John

Curtice from scath collide university and John will be with his

team providing us with lots of valuable tips and analysis

throughout the night. Let's talk about the campaign -- Strathclyde.

To see the level of engagement, across Scotland, you can't go

anywhere without someone talking about the referendum campaign. It's

a level of engagement that I've never seen before in 30 years of

reporting and all of my journalistic colleagues are saying the same

thing, Andy mar too. But of course, when you are talking about something

this important, when you're talking about stakes which are as high as

these, it's maybe not surprising that from time to time, tempers have

been slightly frayed. We owe the Scottish people something

that is fair, legal and decisive. Ladies and gentlemen, that was quite

a lodge. Let's make sure it's quite a campaign. Thank you. During this

campaign, one of the most important things I've ever done in politics.

On Thursday, 18th September, 2014, we will vote, the Scottish people

will decide Scotland's future. The first debate should be between

the First Minister of Scotland who wants independence and the Prime

Minister of the UK who's trying to stop Scotland get independence.

Thank you very, very much and Scotland, stay with us.

I could not as Chancellor recommend that we could share the pound with

an independent Scotland. Scotland cannot keep the pound and the Bank

of England if it chooses independence. A currency wouldn't

work for Scotland if it was independent. It wouldn't work for

the rest of the UK. We are in a campaign. It's in the interests of

George Osborne, Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander, to talk up what they

describe as the uncertainty. We are maybing the case for an arrangement

that is right for the rest of the UK.

Any eight-year-old can tell you the flag, capital and currency of a

country. The flag is the saltire, the capital will still be Edinburgh

but you can't tell us what currency we'll have. They cannot stop us

using the pound. We want Scotland to bring the Yes

Vote to separate from England. I'll nominate David Cameron. Whoa! This

weekend, a po put the Yes Campaign slightly ahead for the first time.

We are proposing that over the next few months, we agree a programme

that the Scottish Parliament should have increased powers. Tomorrow, the

right place to be isn't in Westminster at Prime Minister's

Questions, it's Scotland. We have the entire Westminster establishment

in a total and utter panic. If you are fed up with the F-ing Tories,

give them a kick and make them think again. This is totally different to

a general election. It's a decision, not about the next five years, but

about the next century. That gave you a good sense of the

campaign and the fact that there's been lots of energy and passion.

That's not surprising because people have been debating the future of

their nation and country. So if you can't get passionate about that,

there's not much hope for you, really, is there? A full results

service available online at www.bbc.co.uk/scotlanddecides.

Plenty of information there on the individual counting areas. A very

good site to have a look at. On social media look at the special

Facebook page we've got or you have the

# Indyref which will take you into the stream to give you the comments

and news. Douglas Alexander is with us for Labour and Fiona Hislop for

the SNP, the Scottish Cabinet Secretary for culture. Thank you for

coming in. Good evening. Well, where do we start, Douglas,

just to talk really about for you what is at stake here? This is much

bigger than a general election, much bigger than Party Politics. I think

the real question that many of us were looking at today when we saw

the ballot paper was, what kind of progress do we want for our nation.

It's fundamental, it's bindery and I think we can only welcome the fact

that in our millions as Scots we've come out to cast our vote. I think

it will be a historic judgment on an historic night. It's hard to capture

words that cap huh the scale and significance to us here in Scotland,

not just of the campaign we have experienced but the consequences of

the decision. The choice is for us as Scots but the consequences will

be felt in every part of these islands, this is huge.

It's a tribute to the democratic process of Scotland? It's been

hugely exciting. The people of Scotland have been on a journey and

a few years ago, some people didn't even want the debate. They are

energised. Turnout is considerable. I think it will be a high turnout.

In terms of engagement, it's helped people change politics. If it ever

was, it no longer is an issue of politics of party. It's most

certainly politics of people. That's what many people find they are not

from Scotland hard to engage with that this is not just about the

Westminster system, this is about power and power lying in the hands

of the people. For those precious hours today, the future and the

power and sovereignty of Scotland lays in the hands of the Scottish

people and that is an amazing achievement. To do so at a peaceful

and considered and energised debate is a tribute to everybody and we

should recognise that. In a second, I'm going to ask you for your sense

of, the you aring the day you must have picked up some vibes, but

before that, nib, we don't have an exit poll, but there are surveys

around tonight? There is a last on the day poll. Difference between an

exit poll and a poll done on the day. The poll is people who've

voted, not on people who've not made up their mind. The result out

tonight is 54% no, 46% yes, so a no lead quite a bit bigger than we had

earlier and the online data suggests that in that churn that you get,

there's some more movement from yeses to noes rather than noes to

yeses. There wasn't many people saying I haven't a clue, it was

people going from yes to no. It was a genuine agonising decision. Just

to stress, the reason we are not putting too much on that poll, not

only is it not an exit poll. This question's never been asked before,

we have never had a turnout like this before, we have never had 16

and 17-year-olds voting before. It's a very, very different thing to an

election where we have lots of broadcast practice to look at. With

all those qualifications, would that kind of margin be in line with what

you expect, Douglas or not? You see humility with turnouts such as this.

The highest turnout previously in Scotland was around 80% in 1951, so

in that sense it's far beyond any of our own lifetimes and in that sense,

you need to have humility at this time in the evening. My sense today

was that there were huge numbers of people coming out and voting no.

This is a different campaign. To try and give you a sense of this - it

happened to me many Scotland yesterday - he said if I stop the

metre will you explain the Barnet formula to me? ? What other election

could that possibly happen. Jim Murphy tells the story of being in a

restaurant with his wife, a group arrived for a hen night, in-between

tequila shots they were discussing the Archbishop of Canterbury formula

and the referendum. People normally go to a restaurant to get away from

politics, last Saturday evening every table was talking politics.

It's been extraordinary. No-one would disagree with that, it

has been remarkable. But just to go back to those figures, I know it's

just a survey, but would that be in any way in line with what you might

expect or not? I think I would trust the judgment of the Scottish people

and I would trust the poll of the people compared to anything else.

From what you picked up in your own area today, what was your sense? It

was interesting. There's been an underestimation of the undecideds,

who're not undecideds, but just not decided yet. Most of it has been

from no to yes, but a lot of people weighing up the issues, which in the

last few days, they have been about last-minute panics and it's been

counterproductive from the no perspective. We'll see the results,

but people will be thinking, we have been taken for granted, why is it

happening in the last two weeks when it should have been the last two

years. The stories are fantastic, people who've never voted before, a

guy 57 years old never voted before and wants to come to the polling

station. I had the honour of going to the polls with my 17-year-old son

today and he and his friends voted for the first time. He was making

history twice, making a choice about the future of his country and being

the first 17-year-old voting in the national system.

I think we all have taxi driver stories. One had a partner who had

never voted before. She was voting Yes. He was voting No. People have

reflected on the burden and responsibility of the decision.

Talking about the responsibility of making a decision. I'm delighted to

say we have a group of people here with us from all parts of Scotland.

Different ages, different perspectives, in terms of this

debate. Can I just give you a formal welcome, all of you. Lovely to have

you with us. We will chat with you as the night goes on. I'm sure if

Douglas and Fiona and Nick and Sarah have things to say they will too.

John, you are in the front row. You are from south-west Scotland? That

is You are an correct. Entrepreneur? I think. I think you are a Yes

supporter? I am indeed. We established that. Can we talk about

the campaign? Sure. Maybe not in terms of specific issues. Talk about

the nature of the campaign what you have made of it and how it has

engaged you Yeah. Actually when the campaign began I was living in

London at the time. So when I started looking at the difference

between a Yes and No I was in the background of a London setting. And,

at the very beginning I was very much a No supporter. Right. As I

read all the different arguments, I looked at what other people were

saying online. I realised that actually that a lot of the arguments

the Yes Campaign were putting forward made it an awful lot of

sense. Then, towards the end, you started seeing more and more kind of

messups by the No campaign. What would you call a "messup"? Things

like earlier in the month the problem with RBS. Where they

actually made a massive mistake on the other hand how they'd kind of

put forward the news about RBS. Was there a turning point for you? In

your transition from No to Yes was there a point that you thought - OK?

No. It was gradual. It was very much, here is another fact I didn't

realise about Scotland. Oh, here is another thing, you know, isn't often

talked about. OK. Then doing research-based on that. OK, John,

thank you very much. Ruth, Ruth Mackay. Thank you for coming in. I

think you have a different perspective to John's. You are on

the other side, aren't you? Yes, I am. Your perspective on the

campaign? Your sense of how it has gone and whether you think it has

been a good energising experience? Yeah. I think it has been a

fantastic experience. I personally have never been involved in politics

or anything like that at all. And, I felt very passionately about the

issue, and have become more and more involved to the point that now I

have decided myself that I'd like to be politically active. The number of

people that I've debated with, that I've met along the way, has been

quite fascinating. Particularly for me, women who have decided they want

to be more involved and politically active themselves. I think it's been

a phenomenonal experience. It's been heated and it's been hard work,

certainly coming as we get closer. That has certainly been the case.

It's absolutely fantastic. Even my five-year-old is waiting to find out

and excited about waking up to see whether the Yeses or the Nos have

won. The main thing I would really hope is ha we continue with this

momentum. We keep people this engaged after the vote tonight. Can

I ask you. You hadn't been engaged in politics before. How did it

happen? Did someone invite you to a meeting, what happened? Yes.

Actually, I had a meeting with a representative, I was invited to the

launch of the Better Together. I got a phone call asking me to say

something there. It started this huge ball rolling. I have been very

active in the campaign throughout. One of the things that had really

struck me was - I never actually, personally, appreciated how

disengaged a lot of people were about politics. Maybe uncomfortable

about talking about it normally even with their family and friends. That

struck me. I suddenly thought, this is really important that we have

more people. More young people, more women actively involved in politics.

Yes, that stayed with me. I plan to do that. Thank you very much. A

point very well made. To the front row now. You are a Labour voter? I

am, indeed. Can I ask you which way you voted in this referendum? I

voted Yes. You can't see my badge. There it is. It is quite clear. Why

did you, infect, abandon the party's own stance then? The independence

debate is bigger than party politics. It's not about SNP, Alex

Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon it's about what is best for us and our

future generations. I started reading the devolution papers. I

didn't see much radical change for the people of Scotland we have so

many large resources. I just felt as if the devolution papers weren't

going far enough. Started reading into independence and was totally

swayed by the arguments and the positively of the Yes Campaign is

amazing. Hold that thought. Douglas, possibly the fear for you has been,

there are lots of people like that who are natural Labour supporters

swayed by arguments of the Yes Campaign? To an extent. We are

finding a significant number of SNP voters who think we support them in

Holyrood when they vote for Fiona and their colleagues, but are voting

No in the referendum. In that sense, I think all of us recognise there

has been churn within political parties and beyond political parties

in this campaign. To come to the central point, in terms of the

involvement in politics, one of the great things about this referendum

it has liberated politics in Scotland from two myths. One is,

voting doesn't make any difference. Every single person in Scotland

knows this decision, one way or another, will make a big

differences. Secondly, all politicians are the same. It has

been transparent, during this campaign, there are very different

political points of views being argued on both sides. I think that's

a great lesson for ourselves and a great example for the United Kingdom

as well. OK. Amy in the front row as well. You are one of the 17-year-old

vote voters, is that right? That is correct. How did you vote? I voted

No this morning. Was that a decision you came to today or had you decided

a while ago? I think I have been a No supporter for the past year since

the campaign started. It's not something I have been set on. I have

naturally come to the decision as I've become more informed over the

course of the year. What was, for you, the strongest argument in the

No campaign? To sum it up in a word it would be "uncertainty" now I'm

unclear with what is happening with currency. We keep being told for

universities that will be fantastic. Where are the jobs coming from

after? We are not told enough information. Lots of you will be

waiting to come in. I promise you I, I will be back with you before too

long. Thank you very much. Good contributions. Fiona, I sense that

when the change went through, 16, 17-year-olds getting the vote there

was a real sense in some squat quarters that was because you

expected most young people to vote Yes. Is that right? That's rubbish.

Angus Robertson when he was elected to Westminster in his speech spoke

about it. We will put that to one side. I think anybody who watched

the debate the BBC had with the 8,000 young people, or 6,000, thee

were well-informed, intelligent young people more about them. A

17-year-old said to me - this decision, we will have to live

longer with this decision than the rest of you. I think that is quite a

wise perspective. It is about the future. I think that's where the

hope and optimism I think has been very reflective in the Yes Campaign

and I think the idea of So youing fear and uncertainty has been part

of the problem with the No campaign. You know, at the end of the day, how

you do your politics is as important as what you do with your politics.

That is what we have shown with the whole campaign how you do your

politics can be different The point that women have become more

involved, organisations like independence for women are engaging

with people on all sides. One of the legacies I expect to see is more

women, more young people and less, with greatest respect to Douglas,

middle age men dominating - Don't look at me. That was wounding! One

of those changes will be hard to reverse. There is now a generation

of 16 and 17-year-olds who had the vote. Tell them they won't get a

vote when they choose a minister in Westminster or your SNP? Holyrood.

Imagine their friends and relatives, the people they mix with in

University they say - have you got a vote? I haven't got a vote? This

referendum has changed a series of things regardless of how politics is

done. Let us hold that thought. I'm keen to know what is going on in

some of the counts. If we think about Inverclyde, west of Glasgow,

industrial heritage. Sally is there for us. Can you give us a sense of

how things are going? Yes. I can tell you there has been a high

turnout. As you say, this is traditional Labour territory. It's

built on shipbuilding, as you just said, and sugar refining. There has

been those jobs have largely gone. Jeremy was talking about the

importance of areas of deprivation and high unemployment and the

significant of those. Certainly, this is just such an area. The jobs

have largely gone. There is very high deprivation here. There has

been a high turnout. We are told, unconfirmed, in one district there

was a 95% turnout. Obviously, that's going to be confirmed much later on

in the night. The SNP have been campaigning very hard, not just

recently, but for the past 18 months. A series of very well

attended community hall meetings. Labour MP, Ian Mackenzie, had his

job cut out for him much he has been pounding the streets too. But the

SNP campaign was boosted about three weeks ago when one local councillor

from Labour started actively campaigning for Yes. She has since

resigned from Labour. They have taken that as a big boost and they

say they are confident that large numbers of traditional Labour voters

will be voting Yes here. Sally, thank you very much. Much. We will

be back with you later. If we go to Murray. They have been sending SNP's

to Westminster for a long time. Since the days of Maggiual wing. --

Maggie Ewing. How is the count progressing? It's really exciting.

This is a coastal community, a fishing town. Fishing is massive

here, as is agriculture and of course whisky. This should be Yes

territory. There a solid swaj of SNP vote here. You would be absolutely

wrong. This is a community divided. Many people just cannot make up

their mind. There is a big Army camp here. A big RAF base, that might

have an impact. The historical aspect. Scotland's first ever member

of Parliament is incredibly important. There is a turnout. The

turnout has been incredible. # 2% of the postal vote. 80%, 86% possibly

of the ballot has been registered. And, interestingly, just along the

coast here Macbeth allegedly met the three witches there which made

predictions for Scotland's future. It would be a brave witch to predict

the future tonight. Indeed thank you very much for giving us a sense

going on in Moray. That will be an interesting signals for us. Just a

thought really, Fiona there on areas like Moray. You have a strong

heritage. Is there a suggestion in areas like the north-east that, you

know, there will be a percentage of your supporters there who will not

be backing you? I'm saying that because, for viewers in other parts

of the UK, they will assume that every SNP voter are is voting for

independence? I think it's wrong, I said this before, to think about it

as politics of party. It stopped being that some time ago. I

represent, you know, West Lothian, in terms of a former mining area a

tight SNP/Labour, SNP Scottish Parliament and Labour at

Westminster. We have a large number of Labour voters who are voting Yes.

Does that mean that some SNP voters may vote No. That may happen. I know

in terms of the compensation by far greater number of Labour voters. If

you look at the numbers that will vote Yes, on whatever polls you want

to take, it will be far in excess of the landslide result we got as a SNP

in 2011. It's not about the SNP and the people of Scotland am they will

vote differently in different ways. It's wrong, you had the assessment

about the European elections at the start, that was an erroneous way of

assessing how this election will go. I think for audiences that have not

been as involved in this debate it's hard to engage with. Do you buy the

thinking? The basic point that people are moving around is the

case. One thing that Alex Salmond understood early on in this campaign

is how fundamentally different a referendum is. In a parliamentary

democracy there is a self-limiting effect on politicians if you promise

the earth, then don't deliver the earth, they kick you out the next

time. This is a one-shot deal. I think Alex Salmond, to his credit,,

as a politician aspiring to take Scotland to independence, but I

would argue it shaped the character of the campaign, thought - I need to

be lucky once. I just need to promise anything, threaten anything,

offer anything, if I get the votes on September 18th, the deal is done.

In that sense, that shaped both the scale of the promises made by the

Yes Campaign and, in some ways, it affected the way the No campaign had

to respond by saying - hold on a minute, let's ask questions. That

was characterised as negative. To understand the dynamic of that

campaign, you have to give Alex Salmond veried credit for saying - I

need to convince enough voters on one day, then everything changes. I

think that's a very unfairway of characterising it. I think the

differences in the campaigns is the Yes campaign has been more of a move

am and grassroots and certainly on the ground. Better Together, uneasy

alliances. We saw that, many of Labour's colleagues, Douglas

Alexander did not want to be seen on the same platform as Conservatives.

You brought together a strange alliance of Conservative and Labour

that you wouldn't normally see in Scotland in terms of alliance it was

constrained talk down approach. That characterises the differences

between the two campaigns. we talk about the way this has

chained politics forever possibly in Scotland, people involved with the

grass roots level, not necessarily following party leaders. If we are

looking at this huge turnout that's been reported across the country way

in excess of the 809-85% we have been talking about, that's people

that have never been involved in politics but will remain so, they

are going to ask different questions of party leaders when it comes to

future elections, they are going to operate in different ways in their

own grass roots organisations, hold politicians to account, possibly in

a way they haven't before. A lot of people who've been energised and

have gone out to vote will be disappointed whichever way it goes,

a lot of them who've got involved in politics for the first time will not

get what they wanted. What they do will be very interesting. There was

a breaking of this link, if you like, between nationalism, as it was

called, and the vote Yes for independence. There were a lot of

true dissal nationalists who'd describe themselves as such who

voted today, yes, but a lot of people who've never dreamt of

calling themselves nationalists. You travel around Scotland and people

say, stop calling it the nationalists or the Alex Salmond

campaign. The UK-based parties were stuck slightly in a campaign that

wanted to tackle Alex Salmond's nationalists, the SNP, and they saw

themselves in some ways as in a traditional election campaign and

this's why some of the messages didn't sink in, if you like, and he

was, Douglas Alexander, has acknowledged, he was not fighting it

like an election, but quite differently. Let's pause for a

second. We'll be back with our guests in a moment and we'll be

keeping tabs, of course, on the counts and having a look at some of

the key counting centres too. But we are going to go away for a few

minutes and have a summary of the news.

Hello here is a summary of the main news.

The polls have closed and counting is under way in the Scottish

independence referendum. The final result is expected shortly after 6

o'clock. No exit polls were conducted during the historic

ballot, but a YouGov survey's predicted the No Camp is on 54%

compared to 46 for the Yes Campaign. It might not be quite the colour you

are used to, or in the right country, but this Scottish Statue of

Liberty is giving the gist of the campaign for independence and Yes,

they have been rather fired up. It's a once in a lifetime

opportunity to take Scotland's future into Scotland's hands.

Tonight, the nocturnal arithmetic is Tway. Here the ballot boxes arrive

in Glasgow. Meanwhile, down the road in Falkirk, and in Dunbarton, the

adding up as begun. Who says people couldn't care less about politics?

People have queued to vote. Turnout is expected to be huge. Those hoping

Scotland will remain part of the UK, the No Campaign hope they have done

enough to. It's hard to find words that capture the and significance to

those of us here in Scotland, not just of the campaign that we have

experienced but the consequences of the decision, the choice is for us

as Scots, but the consequences will be felt in every part of these

islands. An opinion poll done by YouGov today suggests Scotland won't

go its own way. YouGov's prediction is that No has won by 54% with Yes

getting 46%. We polled 800 people today online after they voted,

people we spoke to earlier this week, so you can look at what

happened to real people, and there's been a clear shift today, small but

clear, from yes p Yes to No and we think the No Voters in the end were

slightly more determined to turn out than the Yes Voters. But so far, we

have no actual result. Whilst the counters count, the pundits will

speculate. The night is young. The new video has been released

showing a British man believed to be held hostage by Islamic state

militants. In the video, the man identifies himself as John Cantley,

captured while working as a newspaper journalist. In the footage

he's sat behind a desk dressed in orange clothes delivering a scripted

speech. Detectives in London investigating the disappearance of

Alice Gross have named a Latvian builder as the main prime suspect.

He served time in Latvia for murdering his wife. He was last seen

a week after 14-year-old Alice went missing in late August. The

schoolgirl was last seen on the towpath that Arnis Zalkalns used to

get to work. The UN Security Council's declared

the ebola outbreak in west Africa a threat to world peace and security.

In a unanimous resolution, the council called on the international

community to provide urgent assistance to the Nkunda tris

affected. The number of ebola infections was

at one stage doubling every three weeks. Police in Thailand haven't

identified any suspects many the hunt for the killer or killers of

two British tourists. The bodies of Hannah Witheridge and David Miller

were found on the island of Koh Tao on Monday. Thailand's Prime Minister

apologised, suggesting it's unsafe for female tourists to wear bikinis.

That is it for now. Back to Scotland Decides.

Welcome back to Scotland Decides. In a moment, we'll be visiting a couple

more of the counting centres, talking to my colleagues, Flake and

Sarah again and two new special guests with me in the studio and

I'll introduce them in a moment. But before that, let's have the

perspective from Westminster and join my colleague Andrew Neill.

Thank you. Scotland has saturated airwaves for weeks now so let's talk

about the rest of the UK, particularly England with two

English MPs, John wedwood and Diane Abbott. The Prime Minister's said if

it's a No Vote, he's going to offer substantial home rule which is what

Gordon Brown calls it, to Scotland. Can he do that without major

constitutional change in England? Of course he can't. He's got to reform

the whole of the United Kingdom. It means going over to a federal model.

I say what is good enough for Scotland then should be good enough

for England so every power that's given to the Scottish Parliament

should be mirrored with the same power coming to the English

Parliament. Being an economical Conservative I would say that we can

carry on doing both jobs as we do at the moment. We English MPs should

meet in Westminster on separate occasions from the union Parliament

meeting as the English Parliament, just the English MPs and we should

handle all the devolved matters in exactly the same way as the

Edinburgh Parliament does for Scotland. Is that a growing view on

Conservative backbenchers? Incredibly popular, a lot of my

colleagues are behind it. It builds on the Conservative manifesto pledge

for English votes for English issues in the Westminster Parliament made

in 2010, now matched by Mr Clegg, who said the Liberal Democrats now,

who weren't in favour of that, are in favour now, so it seems to me

that the majority view, it would be quite unacceptable if Scotland was

setting income tax rate in the Scottish Parliament and then sent

members to the Westminster Parliament to set a rate for us

which Scotland wasn't going to give. Constitutional change. If there is a

No Vote, what constitutional change do you think there should be in

England? First of all, no-one's seen Mr Cameron's proposals. They are

also Gordon Brown's? I know. I don't ethen think David Cameron knows the

details so it's hard to comment on what the proposals are. I think that

Labour MPs will be relieved that it looks like we are going to squeak

through and know we'll win. What is the consequences for England? The

consequences for Labour MPs is we'll not be inclined to rock the boat on

this. John Denham, mainstream Labour MP, one of your colleagues, he said

tonight, it's clear that the more powers that two to the scar, the

less you can have Scottish MPs voting on things in Westminster.

That's got to change. That is the Midlothian question. Do you agree

with Mr Denham or not? I think it's inevitable. It's inevitable that

Scottish MPs shouldn't vote on Scottish matters only? The answer

is, you won't be able to. England won't accept it and a lot of

Scottish MPs won't want to. The SNP have been sensible over it, of

course they don't want to boss England around, they want to run

Scotland, not England. We are being told if it's a No Vote, the Prime

Minister tomorrow morning is going to make a major statement, not just

about Scotland and more devolution there, but about England. What has

he got to say to keep his backbenchers on side? He's got to

say he'll be as fair to England as to Scotland. I'm happy to stand

behind the Prime Minister and honour his pledge to Scotland. Of course,

we must keep face with the Scottish people. They now deserve more powers

because they have been offered in a referendum. Every power that goes to

Scotland must be matched with the English power at English level. We

need an English Parliament to match the Scottish Parliament. If there's

going to be major constitutional change south of the border and in

Northern Ireland and Wales as well as more home rule for Scotland,

that's going to delay the whole thing isn't it? You can't do that

between now and May next year? It's hard to see how that could happen.

It will be a long, drawn out debate. Leaders like Manchester and

Newcastle, the Labour leaders there may take a line of their own.

Thank you both for joining us. Can I just say... I'm afraid we have to go

back to Scotland Decides. Thank you. We'll be back with Andrew and his

guests at Westminster a little later on. Let's have a look at some of the

scenes around Scotland tonight because the counting is well under

way. Ballot boxes have been arriving. That presents some

logistical challenges in some of the more rural constituencies. The boxes

have been arriving and, I have to say, having been briefed several

times by the electoral authorities who've been run by a woman called

Mary who is in charge of this counting, a very impressive

operation, and they seem to have covered all eventualities, so

barring any recounts which of course could change the timetable

significantly, as John Curtice told us earlier, barring any recounts, it

looks to be a very efficient process indeed so far. What you get in lots

of these counting areas, 32 of them based on the local authority areas,

you will get some initial indications first of all of turnout.

We have already had one or two figures but nothing official yet.

After that, we'll be in a position to think about the total numbers of

votes involved and then we'll be able to look forward to some of the

earlier declarations. We think that, for example, some of the smaller

local authority areas like Clackmannanshire may well be able to

get through their numbers in a more quick and efficient time because of

the small numbers. That is a sense of the activity going on right now.

Those are the people working very hard to get the results in for you.

Ruth Davidson is with me now, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives

and Mr Yusef, the Scottish Minister for Internal affairs and Scottish

National development. Quite a night for you to be joining us, thank you

for coming in. Any intelligence from your area? Yes. I've been having

lots of Tweets and texts and all sorts coming in from people around

the country. People are doing tallies at ballot box counts around

there. The most we have had so far is Scottish Borders seems to be

rattling through all the ballots. We are looking at perhaps over 70% from

Lothian. We'd expect that to be high and good for us, but if that was

significantly below that, I would start to be worried and the smile

wouldn't be on my face much longer. I'm pleased the Scottish Borders is

coming out for no. I'll pick up on what John was saying earlier which

was interesting, a contrast with you as a Conservative. But Fiona earlier

was stressing that in her view this wasn't really a party issue, this

had gone much bigger than a party issue, that there was a cross party

consensus on both sides in alliance actually. Do you agree with that

initially and do you have any intelligence for us?

The intelligence is we have no intelligence. No, some intelligence

that is coming through is that the West Coast, Glasgow and Greater

Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, enremember collide,

those areas which have been a real tough battle. Important ground for

the Yes campaign, we are seeing that turnout was exceptionally high, as

across the country. The leader of the Inverclyde Council saying it

will be a real close call. We will have to stay up to the early hours

of the night to watch that. That is where we are now. I agree with

Fiona. A cross-party and non-party, I think the non-party point is

important to stress. People with no interest in politics, and may have

no interest afterwards, I hope they do, will have no interest of party

politics getting involved. How refreshing and the success story of

the referendum campaign has been the 16 and 17-year-old. In the debates I

have had they have been the stars of the show. They have contributed once

or twice much we will be back in a short while with our guests here.

Let's go back to Glasgow. Hundreds of thousands of votes up for grabs.

What is your sense of timings there? That is a very, very big logistical

exercise? Indeed, it is. You know, when you understand that just short

of half a million people registered to vote here in the city of Glasgow,

you will get some idea of the extent of the operation going on just below

me here. We haven't even got to the start of the count here yet. That is

just the papers being verified much we hope to get the counting actually

started fairly soon. What we are hearing is that there has been very,

very high turnouts. Now, that is particularly significant here in

Glasgow because Glasgow sometimes, to be honest, has pitiful turnouts

when it comes to elections. At the last Scottish Parliamentary

election, the turnouts at some of Glasgow seats were as low as 34%,

36%. Most of Glasgow seats didn't even make it into 40% or over. I'm

hearing tonight, from people who are here, is that at some individual

polling stations in Glasgow, not official figures, just anecdotal

figures, by 8. 30pm tonight you are looking at turnouts of 64%, 70%. 75%

I was even told one polling station, which I by 8. 30pm had made it over

the 80% mark. That would be remarkable in some areas of Glasgow.

It goes to show that people did decide that did want to vote in this

referendum. It was important to them to come out and vote, even people

who do not have a history of voting decided they were going to come out

and vote on the referendum. Of course, what we don't know is who

that benefit is for. Which side will benefit most from that. We are a

fair bit away yet from knowing. OK. A thought before I let you go. If

things go according to plan, forgive me if you hinted on this earlier. If

things go according to plan, what kind of time would Glasgow be ready,

do you think Nobody has any clue, is the honest answer, because they have

never had a turnout like this before. They have never had this

amount of people registered. They have never had this amount of

enthusiasm. It is of course a simpler sort when it comes to it,

it's only yes or no. It might speed things up. It will be into the small

hours. I can't get anyone on the counting team willing to make a

prediction. If I was a betting woman I would say probably not before

4.00am. That is useful. We will be back later because the Glasgow

result could be absolutely pivotal in this referendum. Talking there

about impressive toldout. I'm told the postal turnout in Falkirk, we

mentioned it earlier, is around 96%. That is not the overall turnout,

that is the postal vote turnout in Falkirk, 96%. Another sense of how

this is going. I said earlier people around the world are keeping an eye

on what is going on in Scotland, not just Scots around the world, who are

clearly have a vested interest. A big stake in this. World leaders

too. It affects the governance of the United Kingdom and the standing

of the United Kingdom for some people. Jon Sopel, our North America

editor is in Washington. You have thoughts there on how interested The

White House is in what is going on here? Yes. I think The White House

hugely interested in what is going on here in Washington. Barack Obama

choose to issue a tweet last night. Intervention to call for Britain to

stay united. That was the second intervention in this debate. You

know, he is an experienced politician. If he didn't want to get

involved in the independence debate he could have steered clear of it.

Instead of which, he said, "we obviously have a deep interest in

making sure that one of the closest allies that we will ever have

remains strong, robust, united and an effective partner. It's up for

Scottish people to decide their own destiny." It was clear what Barack

Obama thinks. I have to say, Huw, across the political elite, whether

you consider that to be bankers, economists, everyone seems to be

speaking with one voice. They seem to be saying that Britain would be

better united and are fearful of the consequences if it went the other

way. Jon, thank you very much. Jon Sopel in Washington. Very, very big

interest within the European Union. That is not surprising, is it

really, given the United Kingdom's membership and all the talk of

whether Scotland could assume some kind of automatic path into EU

membership. Gavin Hewitt, our Europe editor, joins us now. Gavin, your

thoughts on the level of interest in the European Union and the way this

debate has con ducked itself in the past few days? Well, Huw, there is

huge interest in Europe -- conducted. Tonight, we had

nationalists on the streets here in Brussels putting candles down on the

Scottish flag. But, of course, here in official Europe, here in

Brussels, there is far less enthusiasm about the idea of nation

states breaking up. Tonight the President of France came out and

actually warning against the unravelling of member states. He

said that Europe had been put together over 50 years, and now

there was a risk of it being deconstructed. He made the point

this was important not just for Great Britain, but important for

Europe. We had something similar from the Spanish Prime Minister who

said, these independence movements were like a torpedo going

underwater, aimed at the very spirit of Europe. He said Europe was about

interrogation, not about fragmentation. The reason he said

that is that his concern is an independence movement in his area

might become emboldened if there was a Yes vote in Scotland. That is why

there has been such attention in Scotland, there is a concern if

Scotland voted Yes there are other areas that might also begin to

choose to go down the path to have an independence poll. Gavin, thank

you very much. Very useful to have those views there on the views of

European leaders and how they actually are paying attention to

this contest. It's coming up, just nearly midnight really. Let us look

at the front pages. They are useful for us at this stage. To give us a

sense of what some of the papers are predicting. That is interesting. The

Times, isn't it? The No camp predicting victory. Let us stay on

that image. Ruth, are you predicting victory? We haven't. The head of

YouGov has. I'm quietly confident that the quiet majority of Scots

have spoken. Nobody knows anything for sure right now. My The way that

they have tried to weight things, they have tried to weight it to

party politics. It doesn't work. Not in this referendum. Back to the

front pages. I will bring in Nick and Sarah in a moment. Let us look

at the other front pages that we have there. There is the Herald.

"Scotland makes history" you can take that anyway you like. That is

The Herald. Let's look at The Scotsman, "the nation speaks" we

have to wait until 5.00am-6.00am to see what the nature of the speaking

is. Now The Sun. OK... . "four million Scots vote in Indy poll, has

this bloke got inside info?" . Nick, don't know what to say. There has

been a variety? What is interesting is that Times headline saying the No

camp are predicting victory. They are. They have been doing it for the

past 48-hours. The conversations I had with people inside the No

campaign was a sense that things were moving their way. They did

think there was a margin of victory there and that they believed today.

The one thing they were terrified of was that when this huge turnout came

it would be people who had never voted before and choosing to vote

for the first time and for Yes. Now, as of this morning, the No

campaign's view that wasn't happening. Yes, the big turnout.

There wasn't a sense that people suddenly rushed out in large numbers

simply to vote for Yes. Most of the people I spoke to in the No campaign

have been predicting victory. The Yes campaign have stuck to the

language of "confidence and optimism" that has been the gas and

petrol in the tank of the Yes campaign. I haven't heard anyone in

the Yes campaign predict - I think we will win. We will ask you in a

second. I think, before we ask you, I think it's fair to say - what if

it was a yes? Let us consider the implications of a yes outcome. Then

you begin to ask some enormous questions, not just about the future

of Scotland, but about the future of the rest of the UK too. Let us join

Jeremy once again. If it is a Yes tonight, there are some huge issues

that will need sorting out. I thought we could go through some of

them now. For a start, this year and next, there will have to be a

Scottish constitutional convention. SNP plans. They will have to be a

handover of assets from Scotland to England from England to Scotland and

vice versa. A common travel area needs to be set up so that Scots can

go to England and Wales and Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

as well. Then there is the very issue of the sterling currency

union. That needs to be decided, whether it can happen or not.

Scotland needs to work out, independent membership of the EU.

Also, independent membership of NATO as well. Finally, create an energy

fund. All of that going on, just this year and next, if the vote is

Yes. You then go forward. 2016, to the 24th March. A new government in

an independent Scotland. There will have to be a Scottish security and

intelligence agencies agency running. A Scottish Defence Force

will have to be running by 2016 with 7,3500 soldiers. A naval Squadron

including two frigates. An acquisition of army brigade and

acquisition of two air force squadrons including typhoons.

Setting up a Scottish Foreign Ministry. That is all at the end of

2016-2017. By the the end of 2018 Scotland will have full control.

This is SNP plans in their white paper of welfare benefits. You spool

forward to April 2020, Scotland taking full control by then. This is

the plan of personal income taxes. Then you have the Scottish defence

force in full control with more soldiers, maybe something like

15,000. Then, finally, the really controversial one we referred to

before, Trident, out of Scotland. And then, in May 2020, which in this

plan seems to have come round quickly, you have a second election.

A second election in Scotland in an independent Scotland. You get a

sense from that, Huw, just how much there is to do if the vote is Yes.

Jeremy, thank you very much. We will explore the No options as well in a

short while. Given the intelligence that we have just received and given

we saw that prediction there on the front page of The Times, the No camp

predicting victory. We haven't had a single result yet. Let us be

cautious. What does the Secretary of State of Scotland make of it all. He

is with my colleague, Andrew Marr? Yes, Huw, thank you very much. I'm

joined by a real, live, three-dimensional politician to talk

about the future of the country. We heard John Redwood earlier on saying

- whatever comes out of this, yes or no, there will be an English

Parliament covering most English issues, is that your view as well?

In Scotland, it took us decades to reach the consensus, but we did it

by building a consensus involving not just the political parties but

the Trade Unions, if business voices, local authorities and the

rest of it. Conversation has to happen in England. Whether it's an

English Parliament or a series of Regional Assemblies or more power

for city regions or whatever, that's for them to decide, not for me to

tell them. But if England wants a Parliament, there's no way anyone

like the Scots can say you can't have one. If you go to the Liberals

however, it would be home rule? That is what we have in our grasp now

tonight if we have a No Vote here. A no volt finishes the job of

devolution, brings in the extra powers of taxation of other areas to

rebalance. Very unbalanced system? That unlocks constitutional reform

across the whole of the United Kingdom. It unlocks, whether it's

going to be an English Parliament or Regional Assemblies or whatever

people want that. So for all the English and Welsh people watching

tonight, don't think this is not about you, you are about to see a

tsunami of political change as a result of what is happening here in

Scotland tonight? Well, we unlock the door, it's for them to decide

what they want to do. That's what democracy is all about. Two other

issues. When I talked to Alex Salmond a week ago, he said that

after this campaign, if his side won, there 'lled be no more team no,

team yes, there would be team Scotland and you would be a member

of it? It was classic Alex Salmond, kicking up dust, talking about the

process, a political equivalent of fantasy football which really just

served to detract the fact that they didn't have any real answers. I

would never accuse the Secretary of State of Scotland for kicking up

dust. You haven't quite answered my question, would you be a member of

team Scotland? Let me tell you this now - I am already a member of team

Scotland. I've always been a member of team Scotland. That is the job

that I do as Scotland's voice in the Cabinet table. You wouldn't

necessarily be a member of Alex Salmond's team post the negotiation?

Alex Salmond I think took one remark I made and seemed to read an awful

lot into it, you know. The suggestion that somehow or another

I'm going to turn and become part of team Salmond, that would be a fairly

substantial proposition to swallow. One final area of questions then.

You represent Orkney and Shetland. If Scotland votes yes, Orkney and

Shetland don't, Orkney and Shetland with their massive oil reserves and

fishing stocks might go off it alone themselves hike the Isle of Man or

something? What we have seen in the last few weeks has been a quite

remarkable degree of ah begans coming from the nationalists about

the position of the island communities. They have told us that,

apparently, we have no more right to have a discussion about our own

self-determination than any other town or streets in Glasgow. That is

a fundamental lack of respect and understanding of how Scotland's

island communities work. What I've said today and countless times over

the year, if we ever decide to have that conversation for ourselves,

then we are quite entitled to do that and Alex Salmond and any other

nationalist is in no position to stop us from doing that. To be

clear, this wouldn't be Orkney and Shetland entirely independent, it

would be them choosing to join the rest of the UK? No, all we are

talking about here is the right of our community to have a discussion

for ourselves, with ourselves at any time. We have had a magnificent

campaign about our islands and future, where we have talked to both

the UK Government and the Scottish Government about getting powers for

ourselves, more autonomy. One of the unintended consequences of

devolution is that it's allowed the nationalists to suck up power and

accountability from the community where it properly belongs in the

centre of Edinburgh. Alex Salmond runs the most centralise government

from Europe now. Are you feeling optimistic, a cold

sweat coming on? Look, it's been a two-year campaign and there have

been ups and downs in every stage of the two-year campaign. Tonight, it's

a mixture of excitement, nervousen, anticipation, because, for me, and I

think for everybody who's been involved in it, we are now in a

position where we are powerless to alter the result in any way. The

people have spoken, we need to work out what it is they have said. Very

few unbitten finger nails left in Scotland. Back to Huw in the studio.

Thank you to Mr Carmichael. I suppose Nick, the big interest

there for us and we'll put that to Humza and Ruth in a moment, he's

already taking about a No Vote and federal structure if England desires

it and Wales and Northern Ireland too. The framework of that

contribution talks about us better off? . It's now up to the English to

have the debate the Scots will have, he said. If it's a No Vote, the

Prime Minister will spell that out within hours. I think as soon as

this outcome of this referendum is clear, it's very likely that David

Cameron will emerge in Downing Street and start to spell out what

the next moves he thinks are for Scotland, what the next moves are to

deal with what is often called the English question, specifically the

voting rights of Scottish MPs within Westminster, what they should be

different as a result of different powers of Parliament. Broader

question of devolution throughout the UK, more powers for the Welsh

Assembly and Northern Ireland Assembly, but to the English

regions, either as big cities or as new regions, John Prescot tried. I

think it's likely that after David Cameron comes out, Ed Miliband will.

We have already had Nick Clegg talking about it. The notion of

English political change, it's on the agenda from now.

We had a pledge from the three UK party leaders saying more powers are

coming to Scotland. The Yes campaign said you can't trust them. Douglas

Alexander says the No Vote will be a recommitment by the Scottish people

to the settlement but they want change and Joanne Lament said it was

a decision being made now, not in 1707. They are making it very clear

that change is on its way in that they will hold that promise if there

is a No Vote of course. Are you still at the point, Humza,

at this point of this time when you are saying a No Vote is possible? We

all knew that if we wanted to win this, we'd have to reach beyond

reach. We don't know which way things have gone. We'll wait to see

how that unfolds. A Yes Vote is not just possible but we are confident

the optimism will win it out. I thought you had a refreshingly

honest report from John Redwood MP and he clearly said amongst the

backbenchers in the Conservatives there is a demand for the same

powers being promised to Scotland. We are think they are not

substantial enough of course but the powers being replicated in England,

he said there would be a revolt if it wasn't there. Christopher Chote

said there would be a vote. The Prime Minister can't afford that

eight months ahead of an election. He can't cope with a revolt,

especially when he's trying to get into Ten Downing Street. I don't

think the powers will be coming at all, even the insubstantial ones we

have been promised. Do you trust the Westminster leaders to deliver on

what they have pledged? Absolutely. It's been the three party leaders

too. The plans we drew up, the ones that have been adopted by

Westminster and are coming together with the delivery plan to make into

a single offer that will be in the stat jute books in March so that we

all go into the general election and we vote on it and the election is

ready to go as soon as that happens. That was drawn up in Scotland. We

had the Strathclyde Commission for the Conservatives and Diane Abbott,

possibly not keeping up with the debate in Scotland, saying nobody's

saying what the powers are, we have had them on the website for months.

You can see them, right at the top there, we are very proud of them.

All three parties came up with very similar offers. They are not say the

same though? The one we all agreed on income tax and far greater

devolution. Some of my English colleagues are misunderstanding the

difference between a block grant and the Barnet formula that calculates

that, but I'm sure I'll be able to educate them. We also looked at the

further devolution of welfare powers as well. There is a difference

between where we are going in the Labour Party and the Liberal

Democrats, but there's movement for further change there and it's

absolutely clear across Scotland that the status co's been smashed by

this Referendum Debate. We'll not have the same Scotland after this

that we had before. Given the status quo is being smashed, I want to

bring in more of our friends here who've been waiting patiently in the

studio with us. You on the front row there, you are

17 aren't you from Shetland? Yes. Which way did you vote? Yes.

In a sentence, why? We heard a lot from Shetland during

the campaign to do with distance and remoteness. But it say, you feeling

that Edinburgh is remote, and for that reason feeling a degree of

hostility. You were not in that camp? No. With the government being

based in Westminster, it is quite remote. Edinburgh is still remote,

but we will be closer to Edinburgh and have a louder voice. Did you

take a long time to make your mind up, or where you decided from the

start? Originally, before the campaign took off a year ago, I was

a No supporter and quite heavily. But with encouragement from my

history teacher, encouraging us to look into different political

issues, I research into the opposition at the time, which were

wood, so I could counter it. And in doing that, I sort of suede myself

to become a Yes. It was a gradual move. And what about your fellow 16

and 17-year-olds? What was your sense of their consensus? When iced

tried to speak about the referendum to them, they ridiculed me. But in

recent months, we have seen a lot of them that have now left school or

are still in school, coming out and asking me questions and asking other

people questions and having these conversations in the streets,

hanging about, wherever. And where they fairly evenly split, or did you

sense that most of them were in one camp or the other? From what I have

seen, it is a small snapshot, but it was 50-50 in my year, half saying

yes and half saying no. It seems fairly even. In the back row, you

are from Glasgow. Yes, I live in the south side of Glasgow. Could I ask

you how you voted? I voted No. Why? I am self-employed and I had

concerns that Scotland would not be viable on its own economically. I

tend to look at Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland like

America. I see all the different countries like state. The states in

America all have individual strength and power. And on the basis of

that, they have united states of America and they are world leaders.

That is the way forward for the United Kingdom. See each state as

Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, as states, with senators, like Ed

Miliband and all the main party leaders. But give them more

strength. With that strength, they can stay united and move forward as

the United Kingdom. We have our first official turnout figure. It is

from Orkney, and it is 84%. That certainly is above the 1951 record,

which was around 81%. If that is replicated elsewhere, in fact, I am

told Clackmannanshire is at 89%. 88.6. That is remarkable. If that is

replicated, Nick, that will send shock waves throughout the entire

electoral process. These are massive figures. But bear in mind the

backdrop to this off steadily declining participation in elections

and declining participation in politics as a whole, with turnouts

in UK general elections in the 60s and people anxious that it was going

towards that. To get towards 90% of people taking part is extraordinary.

And bear in mind, that is 90% of the 97% were registered, which itself

was a record. Now that we have that figure, let's go back to the

audience. You are from Glasgow, which has been such a cauldron in

this campaign, with lots of people saying the SNP has had an incredible

campaign. What is your sense of how that campaign has run? I think the

Yes campaign and the No campaign have had strong attributes. I think

the Yes campaign have had a good, strong leadership with the youth of

this country, and the youth have been passionate about the Yes vote.

And using the They will have big piles of votes to

sort through. Just, to underline, four you, Orkney, final turn out,

84%. Clackmannanshire, which is one of the smallest Local Authorities

too. A bit like Orkney but in a different part of Scotland, that is

an interesting place for us, because if that is turning at 89% of people

taking part in this process, well, we could be in for a slightly longer

night than we thought, but we could be in for an incredibly interesting

bit of a roller coaster ride. Let us go to East Lothian, our

correspondent is there in Haddington. Give us a sense of the

process there. Yes. Well, this is an area that stretches from Musselburgh

through Trennan down to north Berwick, we had the first of the 96

ballot boxes coming in after 10. 35. All were in by 11.00. It looks like

we might get some idea of a result round about 2.00. We have heard from

across the rest of the country about extraordinary turn out figure, in

terms of the postal vote here in East Lothian 95% of the hoes Tam

votes were returned so we are talking about big record-breaking

figures here, in East Lothian. That is replicated across the country it

seem, the early indications here, I have been speaking to the Yes

campaign and the Better Together, and some indications from Yes they

are not expecting to win this here, in East Lothian, but their line

would be would be if it was a narrow win for No they would take comfort

from that, if that was replicated across Scotland that might give the

Yes campaign a boost later on in the evening, because there are some

quite affluent area, rural areas, round about, well 90% of this area

is farmland. It is a big area, so lots of

different constituencies and very mixed as well in terms of the

make-up of the Council and the member of Parliament here, who is

from Labour. So it is a very difficult one to call, but early

indications have been that the No campaigners are quietly confident

that East Lothian may go their way. Thank you for updating us and for

that hint that the No campaign in East Lothian are confident. Alex and

has been on social media. The First Minister has just said this.

There is a conseason suspended sentence that the financial

settlement we have, that the powers we here here in Wales are

inadequate. This debate of course has been about where power lies and

we know that the power and wealth has been concentrated and

centralised round London and the south-east, and if there is a yes

vote tonight, then that wealth and power will be shared a bit more

equally throughout the countries of these islands. It is vital that

Wales is at the forefront of these negotiations so that we make sure

our voice is heard and that we get the settlement we need out of this

process. If it is a No vote, we have already heard that the Barnett

formula will be retained for Scotland. What are the implications

for Wales and what would you be saying in some talks about the

future governance of Wales within the United Kingdom? Well, Plaid

Cymru has been campaigning for many years, for a reform of the Barnett

formula. Wales loses out around ?300 million every year to our public

services because of the way our funding is calculated. And with the

promise to Scots in the event of a no vote that that Barnett formula

would remain, that causes a problem for us in Wales. So we need to make

sure this process delivers the fair funding that Wales needs, because we

have already been hit by the austerity politics from the

Westminster government and this ?300 million we are losing every year is

giving us too much of a hit. Let me go strict to Belfast to Mark

Devenport, our political editor. Your thoughts on the interest that

Northern Ireland has in the outcome? We have already discussed

the potential for a Yes or No vote. Let's say it is a No vote. What

would be the petitions for Northern Ireland's governments? Maybe the

repercussions would be less seismic than a Yes vote, which would put the

constitutional status of Northern Ireland once more into the melting

pot. But they No vote would have serious repercussions here, because

there would be discussions about extra powers for Scotland, and that

would beg the question of what extra powers should be given to Stormont.

Top of the shopping list here is the notion of devolving corporation

tax, because businesses here compete with businesses south of the Irish

border, which enjoy a much lower headline rate of operation tax. So

there was cross-party agreement on that. In relation to other powers,

that might potentially set Unionists against nationalists, because

nationalists are more sceptical about getting extra powers in case

that ends up with a constitutional thin end of the wedge.

Ast, and if there is a yes vote tonight, then that wealth and power

will be shared a bit more equally throughout the countries of these

islands. Who will look at the options in the event of a No vote If

there is a No we have a great promise made by the three party

leaders, the unionist party leaders that this Barnett Formula sound dull

but is all about cash, it is about the amount of public spending here

in Scotland. We have heard in Wales they don't want that to happen. We

know that English Tory MPs don't want to it happen so you have a

conflict that is going on between what has been promised in order to

try and which this referendum here in Scotland and what is acceptable

to people in Wales and England without having an obvious route

through. What about the way the argument is developing here now,

because if you look at, again, I am stressing it is early, if you lock

at the potential for a No vote. How will that play out? You will have

whatever happen, There will have been a substantial number of people

who voted for it to be an independent country. When the SNP

stood in the 1992 election their slogan was free by 93 and they were

laughed at. They were a laughing stock, they returned three MPs to

Westminster. Now they are the government of Scotland. They have

had this referendum and whatever way it goes they will have had a

substantial proportion of the country being persuaded Scotland

should be an independent country. Have persuaded people it could be an

independent country. If less change follows along that road, there will

be problems in Scotland to come. Let us think for a second. I will get

Ruth in in a moment, let us explore maybe a little more the attitudes to

independence, to Scottish independence among voters, not

principally in Scotland, that is what tonight is about, the

referendum is about, but in other parts of the UK. We have heard from

Belfast, Wales, let us go to Jeremy again. . It is interesting looking

at the attitudes to independence. Let us start with Scotland. How

should Scotland be governed? Look at the Scottish views going back 15

years or so. And see how they have changed. Here we have, as you can

see 15 years ago, devolution was the main answer being given by the vast

majority of people here, independence was low down the list,

and then very few people saying no Parliament at all. So the pink line,

those saying nothing is needed is low. Adds time goes on, you can see

demands for independence increase, and we get to 2005, and then an SNP

minority Government comes in and they seem to assuage the

independence demands a bit and devolution becomes the prefer

option, few people with the pink line saying no Parliament at all.

Get to the end, you are close to the independence referendum. You see the

line progressing and it is largely devolution, from start to finish,

with independence coming down and coming back up. Then we get to the

last year. If you start just from last September, let us look at what

happened here, you start with the polls, ending in the place the last

graph left them in. Let us look. Hoare we go. The No vote on 50%.

This is about a year ago. The Yes vote and don't knows on 18. The

polls show the No vote holding roughly steady but the Yes vote

showing, it has a lot of potential to rise. If you get to threw the

summer here, July, August -- through. It is still on 50% the No

vote. It is looking like the No vote is going to win in in the referendum

which is only a month away. Then you get this moment when the polls snap

together. 46-44. Anyone's guess what the result is. That is why the

timing of the referendum from the nationalists point of view has been

so, so sweet. But the discussion about the attitudes of other parts

of the country is fascinating. Wales, Northern Ireland and England.

Let us look now at this question. How do you think Scotland should be

governed? These are eEnglish views. I will bring this graph on. We can

look. Going back about 15 years. Let us see. Devolution is by far the

biggest answerment look at that. Nearly two thirds saying devolution.

Not many people saying independence for Scotland. Not many people saying

no Parliament at all. Most people thinking devolution is the answer.

Gradually we go through and you have the SNP in Holyrood, in a minority

and then a majority Government. Independence starts to come up in

England. People think that is maybe the next step. There are people

getting more cheesed off it looks like in England saying no Parliament

at all. By the end of this graph, which remember is English attitudes

to Scottish independence September 2013. People come back with the idea

maybe devolution is the thing. People put off independence in

England, possibly as a result of the last month or two, six months of

campaigning, thinking devolution is the only answer. So that is England.

Now, again, you can see differences between England and Scotland, if we

look at this issue, this question, compared with other parts of the UK.

How much Government spending does Scotland get? Let us look at the

Scottish Annes on this. If we look at this. -- answers. Most Scots

thinking they don't get enough. Some thinking they get a fair share, very

few saying Scotland gets more than it should. This is going back 15

years. Let us watch this graph. It is interesting. Because the less

people saying, Scotland doesn't get enough starts to come down. Those

who say Scotland gets a fair share comes up and this could be related

to Holyrood, to the SNP coming in in Holyrood and starting to convince

voters that things in Scotland are working better for them. Very few,

the pink line, very few Scots saying Scotland gets more than it should.

Move the graph on, here we go. You see again, those saying Scotland

getting a fair share, those saying that it gets less than it should,

roughly level pegging, so there is a level of dissatisfaction about the

amount of money it gets. If you look at the English answer, the same

question. Compared with other parts of the UK, how much Government

spending does Scotland get? We look at the English answers. It is almost

reversed. So top answer fair share, most 42% of people saying it is

fair. 21% of people saying Scotland gets more than it should and have

few saying it ought to have more money. Through we go. This is 15

year, you can see most people saying fair share. Gradually English voters

thinking they are getting too much. You could sigh partly as a result

possibly of Scottish devolution English voters saying more and more

Scotland is getting too much money. How dramatic is that? More English

voters saying Scotland gets too much money. Those saying it gets a fair

share coming down here and by the way, look at the blue line. This was

the leading line in Scotland, these are people who think Scotland

doesn't get enough. By the end of this graph you really, it comes

together at the end partly because maybe as a result of the referendum

debate English voters think Scotland isn't getting over much money, maybe

it does need a bit more, but the thrust of this is that the attitude

towards spending in Scotland, if you compare Scottish answers and English

answers is very very different. Thank you very much.

And thank you very much indeed. Back we come to our guests here, in the

referendum result studio. Before we pick up on those interesting

attitudes that he was telling about news we are getting in, more

intelligence, what do we have? This isn't a result but we have news from

Falkirk where Better Together say the result is tight but they think

that No will win comfortably. You might say Better Together would say

that, wouldn't they, but they have. Saying that about other counts, if

there is a No vote that will be surprising, you might have thought

that was an area that was more likely to vote yes. It has an

interesting political history. There is where Dennis Canavan was a Labour

MP, Troyed to stand as a Labour MSP when the Scottish Parliament was

created in 1999 but he wasn't selected by the Labour Party. So he

stood against the official Labour candidate, he won a thumping

majority. He stood again in 2003. He got the biggest majority in the cosh

Parliament where is he now? The chair of the Yes Scotland campaign.

He has made the journey towards Yes. You might have expected a few people