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National Security Strategy Committee

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LineFromTo

Thank you very much for coming.

Thank you.

Particularly, as you

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probably know, we were dismayed it

took to set up the committee but we

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are grateful for you for coming so

early in the period since we had

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been set up. We have all taken note

of the fact that the Prime Minister

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has tasked you with reforms to the

national security council process.

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What exactly are you considering?

Thank you Madame chair, thank you

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very much for your welcome to this

session. Essentially there is a

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continuous process of trying to

improve the National Security

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Council. You will be aware that we

have been seeking to embed the

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Chilcott reforms into the process.

With my coming in, with there being

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a new parliament, she asked me to

look at the process and ensure that

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it was functioning effectively. That

is aside from the policy work and

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capability review. I suppose the

headlines of fact is that we are

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trying to prepare meetings more

thoroughly. The NSC owner, the

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officials group that meets

beforehand now considers the main

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issues a few weeks ahead -- NSCO. So

that we have a proper steering

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discussion to make sure that we

bring issues to the council itself

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in a more strategic format. We have

also made some adjustments to the

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agenda. Again, so that there is a

work plan several months ahead.

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Ministers have the chance to

consider issues more strategically.

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Thirdly, I can talk more about this,

issues particularly concerning...

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This is the most important,

actually, that we had a rigorous

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implementation process in place so

that the council's decisions were

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then driven through government.

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That is helpful and interesting. As

you may know, in the past, this

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committee has expressed some anxiety

as to what degree the NSC was

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strategic. We were worried it was

being too operational and driven by

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day-to-day events. The notion

that... You are wanting to look at

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it more thoroughly and to a

consistent plan, which has a

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strategic approach, is... Welcome

news.

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He said you're looking carefully at

how you can make the discussions

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more strategic and have more notice

and prepare in greater depth. He

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also said rigorous implementation.

-- you also said. Which of those do

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you think requires most attention?

Probably the latter, to be candid.

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That's what I thought.

There are

many colleagues who have worked in

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government and as you will know,

particularly when one is dealing

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with crosscutting issues, weather

isn't a natural single home in a

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department, it is very

straightforward if a department

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brings a proposal that is agreed or

not and then they move ahead. In

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this area, of course, we are dealing

with proposals that involve several

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departments, half a dozen or more.

It's in those areas that

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implementation has constantly proved

challenging. When you are in

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government -- when you were in

government, we talked about joined

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up government. We need to bring that

concept alive in the national

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security area and ensure that each

department, each individual area, is

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clear about what is expected of them

and what is the must direction and

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guidance.

We are well understood

that was part of the point of having

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the National Security Council. Am I

right in thinking that you used to

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attend, previously, in your previous

capacity...?

When I was ambassador

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in Afghanistan, I attended and when

I returned as the Foreign Office

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political director I would attend

from time to time on those issues. I

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had hidden very rarely when I was

permanent secretary at the Home

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Office. If the Home Office couldn't

go and there wasn't a junior

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minister available.

Is that a

strength? Does that help to inform?

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I guess I'm the wrong person to ask,

perhaps you should ask some of my

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colleagues, Madame chair. I think

having that blend of experience,

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having worked overseas and of

course, my predecessors were very

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experienced ambassadors. They had

not won a domestic department.

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Having that blend the two has helped

me. It means I probably understand

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some of the pressures in particular

this intimidation question. I have a

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good appreciation of the particular

domestic security agenda.

Although I

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don't invite you to comment on this

in case you don't want to come I do

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recall it being said, although not

in public by her, that the Prime

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Minister as Home Secretary had some

concerns about the degree to which

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the NSC did not consider the

domestic agenda.

Without commenting

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on the specific point, the general

point you make is well made. We try

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to ensure there is a good blend of

issues brought. We try to look at...

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Some overseas issues in geographic

clusters, rather than country by

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country. That helps with a strategic

discussion. In response to your

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letter to the Prime Minister, by the

way, Madame chair, I will write to

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you this week with the agenda

details of the NSC over the past

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couple of years so you can have a

look at the issues we've been

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discussing. We tend to look now at

overseas issues in clusters. We will

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look at, for example, East Asia, not

just China. We look at the Matic

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issues that cut across the domestic

and overseas, such as

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counterterrorism or serious

organised crime.

Extraordinary, that

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was about to be my next question.

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One brief business type question, in

the past, your predecessors have

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given the committee information

about the size and function of the

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Secretariat, which is germane,

implementation. Can we write to you

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after the session with questions? I

don't invite you to dwell on that

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Indy car now.

Of course. The

secretariat is still pretty much the

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same size as under my predecessor.

-- dwell on that at the moment.

I am

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happy to take any detailed questions

on that after the session.

OK. Mr

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Grey.

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We will move straight to the

capability review. First of all,

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who's idea was it and when was it

commissioned?

We conducted a piece

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of work during the election

campaign. My arrival coincided with

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the declaration coincidently. I've

already talked to the Prime Minister

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about just doing a quick refresher

of the 2015 strategy. And STS are.

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-- SDSR. Parley to deal with the

evolving threat picture and the

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question of whether it was still

right in all respects, given that it

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was written before the decision to

leave the European Union.

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Essentially, that morphed into a

preparatory work, during the

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election campaign for incoming

governments. We need to be able to

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present the incoming government with

a range of options on how they might

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proceed. We presented that the

council after the election. It was

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as a result of that discussion that

the council commissioned the

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capability review, which is in

effect a refresh of the 2015 SDSR.

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The outgoing Prime Minister... Not

unusual for an outgoing promised to

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construct a review of this campaign

during election campaign, is that

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normal?

My initial discussion with

the Prime Minister was before the

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election campaign was close. I

wasn't aware of it you would expect,

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just as departments have to prepare

for an incoming government of

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whatever... Party or mixture of

parties, in any event, would have

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had to have done some work during

the election campaign to prepare for

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an incoming government. We brought

the two pieces of work together. We

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would have done that whether the

Prime Minister have sorted it or not

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as part of the proper work of the

civil service during the election

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campaign to prepare for an incoming

government.

A proper review of the

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national security strategy as well,

was that part of the work?

The

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initial piece of work looked at the

2015 strategy. Essentially we looked

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across it to ask whether it still

looked as though it was broadly

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correct in did other than 17 --

broadly speaking correct. The main

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structure and approach. -- in 2017.

And the broad approach. It was

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right. It was as a result of that is

that the council commissioned the

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capability review.

Given the 20th 15

national security review and the

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SDSR well one document, unusually

for the first time, is in this

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review, you cast and I over it, as

you say, the NSS part of the

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document, what led you to the

conclusion that something was to be

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changed in other parts. If the NSS

was sufficient, despite the fact

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that it didn't know about Brexit,

didn't know about all sorts of

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things that hadn't happened in 2015,

if you concluded that the NSS was

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sufficient, white was another review

needed?

-- why was another review.

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You are right, the two remained

together and there will be some

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changes to the first part, if you

like, the strategy part of the

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document when the process is

concluded. The operational

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consequences of that, the council

concluded was forced to look at a

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range of capabilities. Some because

it was an evolving threat picture,

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the terrorist threat picture has

evolved for example. Some of them,

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global Britain, because of the

decision to leave the European

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Union. We are looking at air

mixture. It isn't just purely

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capability. We are looking at a

mixture. -- we are looking at a

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mixture.

Forgive me, I am puzzled.

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You have confused me. The national

security strategy 2015 was merged

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with the NSS. The conclusions were

based on that strategy. That

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strategy in 2015 did not know much

about the emerging threat, Brexit,

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lots of things. Nonetheless, you

concluded that it was not necessary

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to carry out another review?

Sorry,

I haven't been clear. We concluded

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that we did not need a full, new

national security strategy and SDSR,

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that was one of the options that the

council could have commissioned but

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they concluded that we did not need

that, because broadly speaking, the

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structure and conclusions of the

2015 reviews were correct. A broader

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view of national security that

incorporated security, economic and

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influence objectives, commitment

already made in that strategy to

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deliver certain capabilities, most

of which were only just starting.

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There were clearly areas where we

might need a course correction.

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Essentially, that's why they

commissioned a capability review,

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rather than a full SDSR. Also, the

government didn't commissioned a

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spending review immediately after

the election and that is the third

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component of the 2015 document. It

was run alongside a full spending

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review. It was that range of factors

that cause the council to conclude

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it did not need a full SDSR.

What is

the point of having the NSS review.

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If the budgets were precisely as

they were before? How can any

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outcome of the review have been

effective, because there is no more

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money?

A constant challenge in

government and it goes back to the

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point the chair was making at the

beginning, are we spending all of

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the money we already have two best

effect and in the right places.

That

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is a different point.

Depending on

how you define it, we spent

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something like £56 billion a year on

national security. It is reasonable

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or the government to want to know

that is being spent, the balance is

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correct, before they consider

whether that £56 billion per year is

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the right number.

Hang on. You

haven't answered the question.

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What's the point in having a

national security review and the

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defence review linked to it if the

premise is there is no more money?

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No matter what you conclude... Let's

imagine the NSS, they concluded

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there were vast new threats are

perfectly possible, nonetheless,

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there is no more money attached to

it. Therefore, what's the purpose in

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doing it?

To see whether the money

already allocated is allocated in

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the right way.

You don't have to

have a NSS review, nor SDSR to do

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that, presumably all departments do

that all the time. Presumably it is

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one of the primary function is to do

that. Don't you think you're

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emasculating the SDSR or the NSA

review by saying that no matter what

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you conclude, the budget will remain

the same?

I wouldn't put it quite

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that starkly but this exercise was

commissioned by the council as a

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fiscally neutral exercise.

Commissioned against the background

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that we spend around £56 billion per

year depending on how you define it,

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national security broadly defined.

To ensure the balance of that

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expenditure across departments is

allocated correctly. There are some

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constraints within that, the 2%

commitment on defence. And the 0.7%

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commitment on ODA were fixed.

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There is a great deal one can do in

terms of allocating resources within

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a pool that size to make sure they

are being allocated correctly and

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the prioritisation is correct.

Essentially that is what we are

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considering.

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When is it going to be announced.

We

will bring it to the national

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Security Council in the new year and

it will be made public in due

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course.

Rumours were it would be

delayed and would in fact happen the

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same time as the funding review?

Next year's Budget.

There isn't a

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spending review for next autumn's

Budget. No decisions have been taken

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about a full spending review. It is

not being delayed. There was a tweet

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about a meeting moving, I'm not

going to get into a running

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commentary on what is on their

agenda, but this will be brought to

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the council in the new year and

ministers will take decisions then.

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In the new year. It is scheduled to

be taken in the new year. The

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schedule is for the Prime Minister.

I'm going to move on to Miss Reeves.

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You mentioned that Russia and Brexit

were reasons for the updates since

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2015. I wonder whether those are the

principal reasons, the former

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Defence Secretary said one reason

for the capability review is the

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intensification of the four

principal threats identified in the

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2015 national security strategy. Is

it the intensification of the risks,

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or is it Brexit and Russia or a

combip nation that meant --

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combination meant the update was

needed.

The former defence Secretary

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included Russia in the threats he

was talking about. The review did

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identify four threats, Russia among

them, terrorism among them.

How

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about Brexit.

I didn't identify,

that was separate. But it did

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identify those threats and it was

largely based around tackling those

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threats. The threats of terrorism,

as the former Defence Secretary said

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and the Russian threat have

intensified. That is influencing the

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shape of the review. The original

review took place before Brexit and

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of course we have to make sure that

the current review is correct in the

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new circumstances.

The work you have

been doing, in what way is Brexit

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important for our national security?

Well it affects our relationship

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with the European Union and it

therefore affects our and our

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co-operation with them or will do,

as you know we seek to have a deep

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and special partnership, but we have

that yet to negotiate. And it

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affects our relations with the rest

of the world. The Government is

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seeking to exploit the freedoms to

deepen relationships with other

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countries in South Asia, in the Gulf

etc. Across the economic and

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security agenda. Brexit sets a

different context within which we

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are operating. The threats are

independent of that.

In 2015

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obviously we knew, you knew there

was going to be a referendum in

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2016. So had the risk of Brexit or

the opportunity of Brexit however

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you might see it, had that been

included in the NSS and the SDSRo

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did you have to look at this from

scratch?

Of course the 2015 exercise

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was conducted before I took the job.

But the Government... Of course the

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Government position at the time was

there would be a referendum. At the

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time of the review, I don't think

the timing of that was set and the

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intention, the Government's

intention was to campaign for

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remain. It was mentioned I think in

the 2015 review, but it wasn't taken

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as a strategic driver of the review.

We have a different context now and

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we need to make sure we are in the

right shape for 2017 and beyond.

It

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sounds like, it is obviously a

hugely different context, I'm

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surprised when the work was done it

wasn't looked at more systemically.

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Have you undertaken a new risk

assessment as part of national

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security capability process?

That

process is under way. We have

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published within Government, there

are three documents, there is a

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national risk assess. Both are

confidential and there is a

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published national risk register.

That is an unclassified document. We

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have... These are constantly under

review. But we conducted a refresher

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of the national risk assessment this

year and will conduct a refresh in

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2018.

Thank you.

My question would

be there from the work you have done

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so far, are you already seeing a

significant variation between the

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four principal threats identified in

their impact on the UK and the need

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to deal with them?

I think perhaps

the two I would focus on Lord Pole

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are Russia and the terrorist threat.

We expected both, if you look back

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at the 2015 review, we expected both

of those positions to become more

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troublesome and they have and they

will probably become more

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troublesome faster and more broadly

than was an is the painted at the

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time. They were -- anticipated at

the time. But they were shaping the

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review. But clearly the Russian

attitude has worsened more generally

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towards the west and that is, that

seems set to continue. The terrorist

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threat has changed because of the

way terrorist threat has developed

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and innovated.

Would you see a

significant variation in spending

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emerging from the present base?

No,

not necessarily. It is more about

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the balance. If you look at... There

is of course some more money coming

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in. I should have made this point in

answer to the earlier question, the

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Home Secretary and the Chancellor

announced an extra £50 million to

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support the police and help deal

with the terrorist threat and the

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Home Secretary will set out more

detail later this week in the House

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of Commons. We had already agreed in

the 2015SRR to expand the resources

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into counter terrorism and security

and intelligence. And you will note

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from the Anderson review that has

been published of the operational

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lessons learned from the terrorist

attacks earlier this year that the

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main recommendations are not about

additional resources or resources

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additional to those planned to come

in, but about changes to the way

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information is shared, changes to

the way different organisations

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operate with each other. It isn't

always just about resources. A lot,

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perhaps to go back to the earlier

question, is about the way we

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operate across the national security

community.

One last question, not

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directly related to the previous

two, when you're looking at possible

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variations in the allocations of

funds, are you also looking at the

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question of how our nuclear

capability is funded and whether it

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should be moved back to central

funded as we did in the 80s, rather

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than lumping it into the MoD budget?

There is a separate discussion about

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that. I don't want to get drawn on

the detail of the deterrent, but

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that particular issue has not been

central to the capability review,

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although there is a separate

discussion about that.

Mr Jarvis.

0:22:540:23:01

Can I ask about defence specific

resource and capability. You will

0:23:010:23:07

know perhaps better than anybody the

huge range of varied threats that we

0:23:070:23:12

face. Given that, is 2% of GDP

sufficient to invest in our defence?

0:23:120:23:23

Well, it's a political question

above my pay grade. We do invest

0:23:230:23:28

over 2% now. We're the biggest, we

have the biggest defence budget in

0:23:280:23:35

Europe, the biggest defence

contributor in Europe. I tend to

0:23:350:23:38

think of this in the round. We're

the only western country that hints,

0:23:380:23:47

exeseeds the 2% target for defence

and hits the 7% target for

0:23:470:23:50

development. World class security

agencies and so on. When I think

0:23:500:23:55

about our national security

capabilities, I'm thinking of the

0:23:550:24:00

whole portfolio and no country has

quite that mix. Back to the chair's

0:24:000:24:06

first line of questioning, part of

my job is to ensure we fuse all that

0:24:060:24:12

and deliver it effectively. Of

course, anyone in my job would be

0:24:120:24:16

delighted to have more capability,

but we do have one of biggest

0:24:160:24:23

defence budgets in the world. The

programme will give us world class

0:24:230:24:29

and modern capabilities across the

piece and I think as a country we, I

0:24:290:24:33

think if I look at my counter part

over seas, I think they envy the

0:24:330:24:38

sort of capabilities that I'm able

to recommend ministers deploy.

In

0:24:380:24:45

terms of capabilities we can bring

to bear, when with we are looking to

0:24:450:24:49

develop those, it is important to

think about what our allies are

0:24:490:24:54

doing, can I ask you therefore, what

conversations are you having or what

0:24:540:25:00

work is taking place alongside our

US and European partners about the

0:25:000:25:05

contribution they're proposing to

make in the future?

This is a

0:25:050:25:09

powerful point if I may. Of course,

one of our capabilities and a

0:25:090:25:14

capability in particular the

Russians don't have is allies. If

0:25:140:25:17

you look at the, if you added up the

British, French and German defence

0:25:170:25:24

budgets, although they don't hit the

2% target, that is double the

0:25:240:25:29

Russian budget. A lot is not about

expenditure, but the effectiveness

0:25:290:25:34

we get. Part of NATO modernisation

programme is to ensure that forces

0:25:340:25:42

are genuinely more able to deploy

alongside each other. As we deploy

0:25:420:25:48

the carriers, we are, we will have

some allied capability in the

0:25:480:25:52

carrier groups and on the carriers

themselves. And when I was in the

0:25:520:25:56

United States last week and saw the

Secretary of defence there, he was

0:25:560:26:02

talking about examples of British

capability that are almost defence

0:26:020:26:07

capability, military capability that

are almost unique that make a real

0:26:070:26:10

contribution to the American view of

the allied effort both within Europe

0:26:100:26:16

and outside it. You're right, if one

of our strengths is our alliances,

0:26:160:26:22

we need to ensure we integrate and

interoperate our capabilities.

Do

0:26:220:26:29

you want to come in on this point?

The question Lord Powell raised on

0:26:290:26:38

spending is surely key to your

responsibility as in the flexibility

0:26:380:26:43

of finances from one area of

spending to another and the reality

0:26:430:26:46

of the 2% which isn't after all a

target, what is a targ is the

0:26:460:26:55

strategic capability of the UK. That

is a floor of 2%. Can you say how

0:26:550:27:00

you see is threats being balanced

against this floor?

I think as I

0:27:000:27:09

have said, perhaps I can just take

the European theatre as an example,

0:27:090:27:14

otherwise I could probably deliver a

20 minute answer which I suspect

0:27:140:27:18

would try your patience. We know

that the Russian threat is

0:27:180:27:23

intensifying and diversifying, they

are, they're improving the

0:27:230:27:28

sophistication of their of

conventional capability and in

0:27:280:27:33

Norway they were show manager me the

capabilities they're developing in

0:27:330:27:43

the north. At the same time we saw

that huge operation which was as

0:27:430:27:49

much a propaganda operation as a

military exercise, designed to

0:27:490:27:55

unsettle our allies in eastern

Europe and we are aware of the

0:27:550:27:59

cyberthreat they mount. So we are

seeing a diversification of the

0:27:590:28:04

Russian threat. As we need to be

able to deter and disrupt and defend

0:28:040:28:11

ourselves against all of those

threats. But we have to do it as an

0:28:110:28:17

alliance. It is not just the 2%, the

floor, it is I think 2.14 at the

0:28:170:28:23

moment in defence fence with a

growing budget. It is about that

0:28:230:28:29

full mix of national security

capabilities we can bring to bear

0:28:290:28:32

and my job is to ensure that

ministers have to opportunity to

0:28:320:28:35

consider all the options available

to them. They then need to decide

0:28:350:28:39

what the blend of the capabilities

is and there is a bigger discussion

0:28:390:28:43

about the over all funding which is

one for main spending reviews.

It

0:28:430:28:53

that is that spectrum that one sees

holes appearing, such as winter

0:28:530:29:00

training in Norway to defend the

northern flank, it appears to be one

0:29:000:29:05

of areas of strategic vacuum.

I'm

not an expert on the particular, I

0:29:050:29:11

mean on the particular deployment

you set out there. But when I was in

0:29:110:29:16

Norway we had a very rich

conversation about how on that

0:29:160:29:24

northern flank her to Norway and

other allies can deal with the

0:29:240:29:31

Russian threat. I would need to come

back to you on detail, having taken

0:29:310:29:36

a bit more expert advice.

0:29:360:29:45

... Intensified, as Michael Fallon

stated and as you have been

0:29:460:29:50

outlining, why are cuts in defence

credibility so widely being

0:29:500:29:54

anticipated as a consequence of this

review?

There's been a great deal,

0:29:540:30:00

as you have been aware, of public

speculation. The former Defence

0:30:000:30:04

Secretary, of course, and now the

new Defence Secretary have both been

0:30:040:30:07

quite clear about both the floor and

growth in the defence budget.

0:30:070:30:16

Obviously, they are considering it

very carefully. The capabilities

0:30:160:30:21

that can be developed. You have just

issued a report. I haven't had a

0:30:210:30:25

chance to look at all of the detail

of it but I've seen a summary of the

0:30:250:30:28

report you issued about the

efficiency programme and so on. But

0:30:280:30:32

the programme is designed to deliver

joint force 2025, that is a very

0:30:320:30:37

impressive set of military

capabilities that would be available

0:30:370:30:40

to this country in the mid 2020s.

That remains the capability baseline

0:30:400:30:46

that we are... That is our target.

Are you saying that there are no

0:30:460:30:52

chances of significant cuts in

existing defence capabilities

0:30:520:30:56

resulting from this review?

0:30:560:30:59

It's not for me to pre-empt

decisions ministers will take.

I'm

0:31:010:31:04

not asking you to be specific, I am

asking you to be general. I'm

0:31:040:31:08

saying, are you telling us that, as

a result of this review, we need not

0:31:080:31:14

be concerned that there will be cuts

in existing capabilities, given that

0:31:140:31:21

the review is supposed to be being

held because the threats are getting

0:31:210:31:24

worse?

0:31:240:31:26

Doctor Lewis, ministers will need to

have options about making

0:31:270:31:30

adjustments to capabilities and to

the programme. That may mean

0:31:300:31:34

reducing some and increasing others.

That's for ministers to decide.

0:31:340:31:38

While this review is in flight I

can't say much more than that.

0:31:380:31:42

Didn't James Gray get to the heart

of it when he asked you a question

0:31:420:31:45

about this trade off between an

increasing threat on one hand

0:31:450:31:51

leading to a cut in the capability

to meet another threat on the other

0:31:510:31:56

unless you increase the overall

defence budget? And wasn't the game

0:31:560:32:01

given away by your answer when you

said that this is meant to be "A

0:32:010:32:06

fiscally neutral exercise". Are you

telling us that even if the threats

0:32:060:32:10

that led to the capabilities being

drawn up in 2015, they may not have

0:32:100:32:17

changed, but other threats may have

got a lot worse. And because you're

0:32:170:32:23

not willing to recommend an increase

in the defence budget, indeed, you

0:32:230:32:27

seem to be rather complacent about

the size of the defence budget in

0:32:270:32:31

what you have just been saying, but

this means that we have to make cuts

0:32:310:32:37

in capabilities that we really need

in order to meet other threats that

0:32:370:32:41

have got worse, isn't that the

logical consequence of everything

0:32:410:32:45

you've been telling us?

I don't

agree, Doctor Lewis. The 2015

0:32:450:32:51

review, when I said was fiscally

neutral, within a growing envelope.

0:32:510:32:57

The 2015 review already has

significant increases coming into a

0:32:570:33:00

range of budgets. The defence

budget, as you know better than I,

0:33:000:33:04

has a fixed floor of 2% of national

income and will grow by half a

0:33:040:33:10

percent a year in real terms. There

are other commitments within that.

0:33:100:33:14

The defence budget is increasing.

The budget available to this purity

0:33:140:33:16

and intelligence agencies are

increasing. Even if you take the

0:33:160:33:22

hard power ended this, we have an

increasing envelope. The question I

0:33:220:33:28

was trying to respond to Mr grow, it

is about how we balance off the

0:33:280:33:31

decisions in that increasing

envelope -- Mr James Gray. There is

0:33:310:33:36

a question about whether that is

sufficient overall. But this

0:33:360:33:39

exercise looks at how to best make

use of the rule sources available to

0:33:390:33:44

us against the threat picture and we

reached conclusions at the end.

Do

0:33:440:33:48

you or do you not have the ability

to make a recommendation, if you

0:33:480:33:54

believe that you cannot meet the new

and intensifying threats without

0:33:540:33:59

making cuts in capabilities which,

only two years ago, we decided were

0:33:590:34:06

necessary and important. Do you have

the ability to say to the

0:34:060:34:10

government, "We need to enlarge the

financial envelope?" To use the

0:34:100:34:16

jargon.

Of course. If we concluded

that the total set of capabilities

0:34:160:34:24

optimised across that 56 billion

were insufficient to meet the

0:34:240:34:28

threats then, of course, we would

say that to ministers. That is not a

0:34:280:34:33

conclusion I expect to reach. But I

have the freedom, always, to give

0:34:330:34:37

ministers candid advice. As I

already said, the government has

0:34:370:34:42

already just announced, even in the

short-term, a significant increase

0:34:420:34:46

in funding for the policing. Because

of the intensification of that

0:34:460:34:50

threat. There are areas in which

this is being considered.

With

0:34:500:34:54

respect, you keep lumping together,

and I know that's your job, because

0:34:540:34:57

you are the national security

adviser and not just the Defence

0:34:570:35:00

Secretary, you keep lumping together

the budgets for all of these things.

0:35:000:35:05

There is no doubt, because of

terrorist threats in particular,

0:35:050:35:09

there have been very substantial

increases in budgets for things like

0:35:090:35:13

the intelligence services. But the

budget the defence is 36 billion.

0:35:130:35:19

That is the budget that gives us our

Nato comparator of 2% as a minimum.

0:35:200:35:28

You said one of the main reasons

that the threat has intensified has

0:35:280:35:31

been a newly assertive Russia. The

last time we had an assertive Russia

0:35:310:35:37

was in the 1980s. We weren't

spending 2% on the defence budget

0:35:370:35:43

then, we were spending between

4.6%-5.1%. I beg your pardon?

And

0:35:430:35:51

allies were comparatively spending

more as well.

Thank you, Tom. And

0:35:510:35:55

even after the Cold War came to an

end, between 1989 and 1991, and even

0:35:550:36:01

after we took the peace dividend

cuts, as late as the financial year

0:36:010:36:08

1995-1996, we weren't spending just

2% of GDP on defence, we were

0:36:080:36:13

spending 3% of GDP on defence. Given

that we are -- we used to spend a

0:36:130:36:20

much greater percentage of GDP on

defence and have defence much higher

0:36:200:36:27

in our scale of national priorities

in comparison with other high

0:36:270:36:31

spending departments that we do now,

are you still saying to me that we

0:36:310:36:37

should not be concerned about the

fact that we are talking about

0:36:370:36:42

deleting entire capabilities like

the Royal Marines amphibious

0:36:420:36:46

capability, when only in January

this year, I was being assured that

0:36:460:36:52

HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark were due

to the service in 2033 and 2044? How

0:36:520:36:59

can you tell me that we do not need

an enlarged defence budget if we

0:36:590:37:05

cannot deal with intensifying

threats without cutting other

0:37:050:37:09

capabilities that only two years ago

we decided we needed?

With respect

0:37:090:37:13

Doctor Lewis, the direct example you

gave is speculative, no decisions

0:37:130:37:20

have been taken of mankind. There is

a lot of speculation in the press,

0:37:200:37:25

some very well sourced speculation

in the press, but no decisions had

0:37:250:37:29

been taken. In terms of the general

point you are making, the historical

0:37:290:37:35

comparison, is, of course, correct

in the sense of our own expenditure.

0:37:350:37:39

But let's not forget the nature of

the threat we faced in the 1980s. As

0:37:390:37:43

I said earlier on, I don't think the

way to measure this is just through

0:37:430:37:47

budgets, it is about the effect you

are seeking to achieve but just

0:37:470:37:50

taking that as a proxy, as I

mentioned, if you put together the

0:37:500:37:53

British, French and German defence

budgets, even now, that's even

0:37:530:37:57

before Germany and France hit the

2%, but even now, it's about twice

0:37:570:38:02

the Russian defence budget. What

they get for that and the way they

0:38:020:38:06

deploy themselves is clearly

different. You will be the first to

0:38:060:38:09

tell me that is not a direct

comparison. But that's my point

0:38:090:38:13

about budgets, we can't just...

Compare to our own historic

0:38:130:38:16

experience.

0:38:160:38:18

Areas in which we may decide to deal

with the Russian threat because of

0:38:190:38:23

the nature of that threat, the

diversifying nature, they exist

0:38:230:38:27

outside the defence budget. I don't

dispute the basic analysis that

0:38:270:38:31

you're setting out, but I think it

is right in my job to think about

0:38:310:38:34

the whole set of capabilities, not

just the biggest one.

I have to stop

0:38:340:38:39

now, but can I just say that anyone

who underestimates Russia's military

0:38:390:38:45

potential and the size of their GDP

does so at their peril. I have many

0:38:450:38:49

more questions I'd like to put but I

fear they'll have to wait for a

0:38:490:38:52

different forum from this one.

Lord

King wanted to come in very briefly.

0:38:520:38:58

One quick question, are you the

right person that Doctor Lewis

0:38:580:39:00

should be asking these questions to?

Just, quite simply, do you come in a

0:39:000:39:07

sense, few of the dual

responsibility is to work within the

0:39:070:39:10

terms of reference this may have

been employed to you and perhaps

0:39:100:39:13

feel that you're not in a position

to actually challenge the Treasury

0:39:130:39:19

had on? Is that right or wrong?

Perhaps there are two passed to the

0:39:190:39:24

question and answer. Of course,

Doctor Lewis and I have exchanged

0:39:240:39:27

some correspondence and the Prime

Minister has as well. I genuinely

0:39:270:39:29

think that it is the government

position that questions of this

0:39:290:39:33

detail should be addressed to the

Defence Secretary and permit

0:39:330:39:36

secretary of defence, they are

responsible for this area of work.

0:39:360:39:41

On the broader question... --

permanent secretary of defence. Can

0:39:410:39:44

I have the frank conversations with

the Prime Minister and Chancellor of

0:39:440:39:46

the Treasury about the overall

allocation of resources? Absolutely.

0:39:460:39:52

I expect to do so. But, as always,

in private.

I will move on to

0:39:520:39:57

Baroness Fox will stop you said the

large and growing diverse threat.

0:39:570:40:02

Baroness Fox will stop you said the

large and growing diverse threat.

0:40:030:40:04

I'm interested in your view on how

much has

0:40:050:40:08

I'm interested in your view on how

much has shifted since 2015. A lot

0:40:080:40:12

has shifted since last week. How you

would characterise the threats and

0:40:120:40:15

plan for them?

You know this area

much better than I. I hope you would

0:40:150:40:22

agree that the rate of change in

this area, you know, both

0:40:220:40:27

essentially, how individual threats

have become sharper but also the

0:40:270:40:33

diversification of threats. They

have progressed faster than anyone

0:40:330:40:40

expected two or three years ago. As

you say. It's almost as if there is

0:40:400:40:44

something different all of the time.

The thing that has really struck me

0:40:440:40:50

about the cyber threat and I dealt

with this a lot at the Home Office,

0:40:500:40:53

the way it cuts right across any

definition of national security and

0:40:530:40:58

public safety. If you are an

individual small business and there

0:40:580:41:02

is one near to where my flat is in

Battersea, they has two crimes in

0:41:020:41:07

the space of a week. One of which

was to smash up their stuff outside.

0:41:070:41:11

It was a florist. The other was a

cyber attack on their bank account.

0:41:110:41:16

The second was the much more

difficult one for the police to

0:41:160:41:20

address. The cyber threat is not

just in national strategic threat of

0:41:200:41:22

the kind we have been discussing

already, where hostile state could

0:41:220:41:29

achieve, through cyber activity, the

same kind of effect they could

0:41:290:41:31

achieve through significant military

action. It's also a threat that goes

0:41:310:41:35

right the way down to individual

businesses, or as you know,

0:41:350:41:40

individual citizens. Particularly

the most vulnerable. Therefore, it's

0:41:400:41:44

not one we can parcel up and put in

one place. It is now essentially a

0:41:440:41:49

place or battle space, one likes

that language, a domain that runs

0:41:490:41:52

right the way across the national

security and public safety agenda.

0:41:520:41:58

Again, one could talk about this at

great length. Therefore, the

0:41:590:42:03

approach has to be, as it is in

other areas, in very generic terms,

0:42:030:42:07

to tackle the threats as best we

can. Reduce those, go after the

0:42:070:42:12

people responsible for them. You get

a blend of state and non-state,

0:42:120:42:16

criminal, political, etc. It also

improve resilience. This is not

0:42:160:42:20

something, as you know, the

government can do alone. We have to

0:42:200:42:23

improve the resident resilience of

citizens and government as a whole.

0:42:230:42:28

I am happy to talk at length about

it. Perhaps I should stop.

How can

0:42:280:42:32

it possibly be that 1.9 billion is

even beginning to scratch the

0:42:320:42:36

surface of this threat? How do you

see that number in relation to the

0:42:360:42:40

overall budget?

1.9 billion is for

the government cyber security

0:42:400:42:45

programme. It is as much about

societal and economic resilience,

0:42:450:42:48

not just about government. That is

designed to try and improve

0:42:480:42:51

government activity. It is what

has... Funded the National Cyber

0:42:510:42:56

Security Centre, which of course,

was launched since this committee

0:42:560:43:00

last discussed this issue. A big

part of that unit's job is to

0:43:000:43:07

improve best practice in businesses,

best practices amongst citizens,

0:43:070:43:13

making people cyber streetwise. To

improve resilience across the

0:43:130:43:17

economy and across society. I don't

think this is an area which is

0:43:170:43:20

simply bad government spending money

to change things. It's about

0:43:200:43:22

changing the way that people and

businesses conduct themselves.

0:43:220:43:28

Online. That is something they need

to build in.

Can I just talk about

0:43:280:43:34

the specific NHS WannaCry attack?

I'm not sure if there was a

0:43:340:43:40

central... Sorry, decision about the

central security operations before

0:43:400:43:43

that attack, whether that decision

came afterwards? That the NHS have

0:43:430:43:49

established a centre for security? I

wondered if you could tell us about

0:43:490:43:52

that. My understanding of the

challenge is that it was people

0:43:520:43:58

failing over a very long period of

time to have consistently upgraded

0:43:580:44:01

the software that they needed to.

How are you approaching this as a

0:44:010:44:07

challenge across all of our critical

infrastructure?

0:44:070:44:10

On your first question, I believe

the operation existed before, but

0:44:120:44:15

has been energised since. I would

like to the committee. I am not

0:44:150:44:20

sure. If I have a romcom I will

write to the committee to correct

0:44:200:44:24

that, if I may -- if I have that

wrong. You are right on the second

0:44:240:44:30

point. Without going into detail

which exposes vulnerabilities, as

0:44:300:44:32

you will be aware, some areas, but

not all, where old software that is

0:44:320:44:37

no longer fully supported and that

hadn't been patched. The reason that

0:44:370:44:40

this attack hit individual

fragments, if you like, of the NHS

0:44:400:44:46

was that most of the NHS systems and

most other government systems hit

0:44:460:44:51

Russian businesses and others, were

updated and resilient to it but

0:44:510:44:56

someone. That basic message, it goes

back to the first question, it

0:44:560:45:02

wouldn't matter what the government

budget for cider is, actually, this

0:45:020:45:06

is as much about IT departments is

-- cyber security. And hospitals and

0:45:060:45:12

elsewhere indulging in basic hygiene

of updating their systems, making

0:45:120:45:16

sure their software is patched.

0:45:160:45:19

That won't guarantee them against

all threats, but it will increase

0:45:190:45:24

their resilience against this kind

of threat. Some of this is about

0:45:240:45:29

properly backing up data, so if

there is an attack, you have only

0:45:290:45:33

lost a day's work, because

everything up to yesterday was

0:45:330:45:35

backed up in a different system.

There is a whole load of practices

0:45:350:45:41

that... Good IT hygiene will make

any organisation or individual less

0:45:410:45:48

vulnerable.

How can you influence

making sure that we have the skills

0:45:480:45:53

and attention paid to these issues?

Well, this is and this is something,

0:45:530:45:59

so in the economy as a whole, it is

led by DCMC, they have the

0:45:590:46:07

responsibility for trying to ensure

as businesses exploit the digital

0:46:070:46:12

economy, that they do that in a way

that is safe. That properly protects

0:46:120:46:19

them. But I think the main

contribution we make out of national

0:46:190:46:25

security community is the national

cyber-security centre which has had

0:46:250:46:31

good first few months in operation.

Is supporting businesses and

0:46:310:46:37

Government in dealing with

cyber-attacks or dealing with them

0:46:370:46:42

if they happen. That is probably the

main contribution we can make more

0:46:420:46:46

widely. Within the national security

departments and agencies, we have to

0:46:460:46:50

make sure our own systems are

resilient and there are parts of our

0:46:500:46:56

supply chains that we are addressing

carefully.

I know different

0:46:560:47:01

ministers think they have different

bits of this and it is a complex

0:47:010:47:05

web, do you think there should be a

single minister with responsibility

0:47:050:47:09

for cyber-security.

I don't to be

honest, it is now too distributed to

0:47:090:47:15

say there is a single minister for

cyber. I set out in my letter where

0:47:150:47:21

that responsibility now lies, we

have consolidated some of it,

0:47:210:47:25

compared to where we were, the

responsibilities where we have DCMC

0:47:250:47:30

responsible for the digital economy

and ensuring h it is safe, that sits

0:47:300:47:35

with their core responsibilities.

The Home Secretary response Dibble

0:47:350:47:41

responsible for dealing with the

civil contingencies. That is within

0:47:410:47:45

her core responsibilities. That is

part of GCHQ and we have the first

0:47:450:47:51

Secretary of State and that is a

change, a senior cabinet minister in

0:47:510:47:56

charge of the national

cyber-security programme. That feels

0:47:560:48:01

like a good mix of responsibilities

to me.

One short question to follow

0:48:010:48:04

that. Do you feel like you can

recruit the talent you need to think

0:48:040:48:08

about this issue?

I think, I would

take people on, it is not an issue

0:48:080:48:16

for me. I think if you look at QCHQ

and they are able to offer something

0:48:160:48:30

that to computer scientists and

graduates coming out of universities

0:48:300:48:37

y that the private sector can't and

that is the sense of pup purpose and

0:48:370:48:44

the fascination of work and they

feel they have a good record of

0:48:440:48:48

attracting highly skilled people. It

is not like people like me, they're

0:48:480:48:52

not going to spend 25 or 30 years in

one organisation. They do have

0:48:520:48:58

innovative programmes with

scholarships and bursaries in

0:48:580:49:02

university, so they're doing some

creative things to attract the right

0:49:020:49:06

people and I think they feel they

have a good handle on that question.

0:49:060:49:14

Do you really think people have yet

woken up o' to is seriousness of the

0:49:140:49:24

cyber situation. It seems to go

right across government I'm

0:49:240:49:30

surprised DCMS that isn't seen as

the most heavy weight department has

0:49:300:49:38

that responsibility. But looking at

this and knowing that starting with

0:49:380:49:44

critical national infrastructure, in

the old days if you wanted to attack

0:49:440:49:48

a country you bombed their airports,

you damaged their railway lines and

0:49:480:49:54

did those thing, now you just shut

those systems down. I Aviation is

0:49:540:50:00

under a major threat. Any transport

system, power generation. It seems

0:50:000:50:08

we haven't woken up to the enormous

scale of what is going on both in

0:50:080:50:16

terms hostile nations, indulged in

numbers I find incredible and the

0:50:160:50:21

amount of attacks that are coming

from, either from hostile nations or

0:50:210:50:26

enterprising young men or women who

actually and I talk about putting

0:50:260:50:31

people in university, I hope we are

going to recruit people before they

0:50:310:50:34

get to university, who are some of

brightest people in this field to

0:50:340:50:39

defend us. But also because a lot of

people and we know this as

0:50:390:50:44

businesses cover up the fact that

they have been attacked, how good a

0:50:440:50:48

picture do we actually have of what

is really going on and are we right

0:50:480:50:56

across government and suppliers to

government and to the nation and the

0:50:560:51:01

whole of national fabric, how good

are we really doing at covering the

0:51:010:51:05

whole of that waterfront.

You make

the point very eloquently. For the

0:51:050:51:09

economy and society as a whole, I

think you're right, people have not

0:51:090:51:13

appreciated the seriousness of this

threat. And this is something that

0:51:130:51:16

one needs to think about as a parent

as much as anything else, the social

0:51:160:51:26

harms, cyber-bullying and revenge

porn are new factors that young

0:51:260:51:30

people are dealing with, right up to

strategic factors. This is something

0:51:300:51:34

that there is a role in schools,

there is a role for business and

0:51:340:51:38

you're rights we do need to recruit

people out of school and put them

0:51:380:51:42

through bursaries and the

cyber-security centre and GCHQ are

0:51:420:51:47

doing that. That is a challenging

prospect for government, because

0:51:470:51:51

they haven't traditionally done

that. On the the broader strategic

0:51:510:51:56

question about critical national

infrastructure, the supply chains

0:51:560:52:00

into the security capabilities, and

so on, we are on top, well we are on

0:52:000:52:05

this question, I wouldn't claim we

are completely on top of it, there

0:52:050:52:10

are vulnerabilities and there are

sophisticated attacks being mounted.

0:52:100:52:14

But we are conscious of threat,

whether with the private sector or

0:52:140:52:19

parts of public sector, building

that into our programmes is a big

0:52:190:52:23

part of their work. In terms of

point you made about disclosure and

0:52:230:52:29

companies disclosing this kind of

attack, this is an area where NCR

0:52:290:52:36

SEAC is working in a sophisticated

way and agreeing with companies how

0:52:360:52:41

they will handle an attack,

beginning with the confidential

0:52:410:52:45

conversations so that companies feel

they can share that vulnerability

0:52:450:52:50

with the MCSC and that when that

need to do after that to reassure

0:52:500:52:54

their customer or shareholders that

they have handled it properly. We

0:52:540:52:58

have seen examples where that didn't

work with NCSS they have sought to

0:52:580:53:05

learn the lessons of that and help

companies deal with this and not

0:53:050:53:10

increase their vulnerability by

going public at the wrong time,

0:53:100:53:13

whilst going public at the

appropriate time.

0:53:130:53:25

You mentioned cyber as an electronic

crime and it is a physical crime.

0:53:250:53:30

Could you comment on that.

The chief

of defence staff spoke about this at

0:53:300:53:36

some length last week. It goes to

the point Lord King was making in

0:53:360:53:42

the modern era, you can achieve the

same effect as you used to be during

0:53:420:53:47

World War two say bombing the London

docks or taking out a power station,

0:53:470:53:52

by going after the physical

infrastructure of cyberspace and

0:53:520:53:56

cables or going after the hard ware

or going after the software,

0:53:560:54:03

cyber-attacks that freeze or tip

over systems and we have to take

0:54:030:54:08

both seriously.

It ever sizes the

over lap on defence capability.

Of

0:54:080:54:17

course, I take an active interest in

all of the capabilities, but in the

0:54:170:54:23

end they're delivered by individual

departments and what those

0:54:230:54:27

departments, what those departments

deliver, how effective they deliver

0:54:270:54:31

it and whether they're on budget is

a matter for them. My job is to try

0:54:310:54:36

and help the NSC see the whole

picture and play that co-ordinating

0:54:360:54:41

role. I run a small secretariat and

some of caricatures that I have seen

0:54:410:54:49

in the press of my influence on

these matters are perhaps slightly

0:54:490:54:53

exaggerated.

Lord Hamilton.

There

was a report that companies were

0:54:530:54:59

accumulating bit coins so that they

could pay off black mailers on the

0:54:590:55:04

cybersite. Are you confident that if

that happens, although it wouldn't

0:55:040:55:09

be in the public domain these

companies would inform you that

0:55:090:55:12

happened, or is this going on

without you knowing anything about

0:55:120:55:16

it.

That goes to the point I was

making to Lord King, I can't be

0:55:160:55:21

absolutely confident, but companies

that indulge in that are going to

0:55:210:55:25

lay themselves open to more of the

same problem and part of test of

0:55:250:55:32

whether our cyber-strategy as a

whole across the economy, and the

0:55:320:55:37

cyber-resilience is whether

companies feel they need to ensure

0:55:370:55:40

themselves through that kind of

mechanism. I can assure you that

0:55:400:55:45

companies that face this kind of

vulnerability or have an incident

0:55:450:55:51

can go to NCSC in confidence and

NSCS will help them manage the

0:55:510:55:58

public disclosure of it in an

appropriate way.

Thank you.

I would

0:55:580:56:03

like to move on to counter terrorism

and March the previous committee

0:56:030:56:10

heard from the Home Secretary and

asked about what was happening on

0:56:100:56:17

contest and the publication of

document that's referred to as

0:56:170:56:26

contest 2.0and she said it was

running late and stressed the

0:56:260:56:30

importance of getting it done. That

was overtaken by events clearly, but

0:56:300:56:34

I think it would be useful to hear

from you how the sort of shift from

0:56:340:56:43

contest 2.0to 3.0has affected your

thinking, why was there not a case

0:56:430:56:47

for pressing ahead with the

publication of contest document, the

0:56:470:56:53

review that was expected even with,

even in t expectation of work being

0:56:530:57:03

done on the new review that was

announced after the general

0:57:030:57:06

election?

The question of

publication is a very one for the

0:57:060:57:11

Home Secretary and for ministers. I

think they felt that given the

0:57:110:57:16

nature of nose attacks and the fact

that we needed to take another look

0:57:160:57:20

at this, there was this operational

review conducted with David

0:57:200:57:25

Anderson's assurance that it didn't

make sense to put out one document

0:57:250:57:29

that at the time we wouldn't have

known there was significant changes

0:57:290:57:33

and it would have... It could have

been, could have caused confusion is

0:57:330:57:39

guess. But I was n't involved in the

decision. In terms of work since the

0:57:390:57:50

election it is broad-ranging, so

there has been as you know the

0:57:500:57:54

operational reviews and those have

reached significant lessons learned

0:57:540:57:59

about how the operational mechanism,

the case work mechanisms need to

0:57:590:58:06

change, more data sharing and

engagement with mainstream policings

0:58:060:58:11

and more broadly as the threat has

diversify and defused and we have

0:58:110:58:18

seen people being radicalised online

at much greater speed than was the

0:58:180:58:22

case even a few years ago. I was

struck about that at the Home

0:58:220:58:27

Office. We need to put in place a

broader structure that deals with

0:58:270:58:36

that more defuse threat and which

people can use every day implements

0:58:360:58:44

to launch attacks. So that review is

in progress, contest 3.0as you refer

0:58:440:58:53

to it. It is part of capability

review portfolio and will be again

0:58:530:58:59

as the capability review as a whole

will be published in due course.

I

0:58:590:59:04

appreciate it is an awkward question

when a publication has yet to take

0:59:040:59:10

place, but would envisage there

being a significant difference of

0:59:100:59:15

emphasis following on from the sort

of low tech, lone actor attacks that

0:59:150:59:21

occurred earlier this year. Is that

going to have a big impact on the

0:59:210:59:28

thrust of the next part of

programme.

We were already seeking

0:59:280:59:35

to deal with that. That is a threat

that had already emerge. As the

0:59:350:59:42

Anderson review sets out, the case

work model that was in place, which

0:59:420:59:47

is focussed on a intense focus on a

relatively small number of high

0:59:470:59:54

threat cases needs to be

complemented with a broader picture

0:59:540:59:58

of as they are called in the trade,

closed SOIs, people who have been on

0:59:581:00:04

the list of threats and have been

taken off it and of trying to

1:00:041:00:10

identify new and emerging threats.

That is a complex business and does

1:00:101:00:16

involve some of the more intrusive

powers of online surveillance that

1:00:161:00:22

Parliament granted in the

legislation in the legislation last

1:00:221:00:25

year. But fundamentally it is a

question about data-sharing, making

1:00:251:00:32

sure that we understand, we have the

whole picture of all the government

1:00:321:00:38

data on individuals and can assess

risk and applying algorithms to

1:00:381:00:45

enable the experts to make risk

judgments in a more sophisticated

1:00:451:00:51

and time sensitive way and about

engaging that wider set of stake

1:00:511:00:59

holders. That is a challenging

prospect and taking security into

1:00:591:01:04

areas that are they are no

traditionally comfortable with

1:01:041:01:08

security and so there are cultural

questions there. We will want to

1:01:081:01:16

pilot some of things and those will

the the main changes and that came

1:01:161:01:22

out of the Anderson review.

1:01:221:01:32

As part 06 of that could it

strengthen neighbourhood policing

1:01:321:01:36

so, those officers who are sort of

embedded in communities can sort of

1:01:361:01:42

help provide the early warning of

individuals at risk to

1:01:421:01:45

radicalisation? Is there going to be

something in the new contest review,

1:01:451:01:49

which might give us a fresh

perspective on how we utilise those

1:01:491:01:56

tremendously important aspects more

effectively in encounting terrorism?

1:01:561:01:59

Without prejudging the final review,

because it has not yet been to

1:01:591:02:03

ministers for decision. I think the

basic point you made is correct and

1:02:031:02:08

came out of the Anderson review,

engaging those local neighbourhood

1:02:081:02:14

policing but also others to ensure

they can do their job effectively

1:02:141:02:18

about this set of threats, as they

do about gangs, other social

1:02:181:02:23

problems and so on is one of the

conclusions of the Anderson review

1:02:231:02:27

and doubtless will then be followed

through in the broader review that I

1:02:271:02:33

presume the Home Secretary will want

to announce in the New Year.

Shall I

1:02:331:02:41

go on to 13?

Yes.

1:02:411:02:52

It will be use tofl get -- to get

your thoughts on the statement by

1:02:541:03:04

MI5 on the uplift in threat of the

terrorist threat in the United

1:03:041:03:08

Kingdom. He's clearly spoken out in

the strongest terms and it would be

1:03:081:03:12

useful to hear your thoughts on what

the main drivers for this very

1:03:121:03:21

significant change in the level of

activity and threat that we face?

Of

1:03:211:03:27

course, I entirely agree, this is a

subject the Director-General and I

1:03:271:03:31

have discussed a lot over the last

few years, when I was doing my

1:03:311:03:35

previous job as well. We're still, I

think all of us, seem to understand

1:03:351:03:39

better and better what has really

driven this. There are a number of

1:03:391:03:44

factors that we can see evidence of,

as I said - online radicalism of

1:03:441:03:54

people based in ra qua until

recently of people in the UK. Often

1:03:541:04:00

impressionable youngsters. There

have been trends, if you look at the

1:04:001:04:03

average of the people who are under

scrutiny, the average age has come

1:04:031:04:07

down, there are more women than

would have been the case a few years

1:04:071:04:11

ago. Quite why that is, what has

driven those individuals into that

1:04:111:04:16

situation, obviously there'll be

individual cases and as the Prime

1:04:161:04:19

Minister has pointed out on

occasions, there is a high

1:04:191:04:23

propensity of people who have had

mental health problems in this

1:04:231:04:28

co-hort, whom these people are

exploiting and exploiting that

1:04:281:04:32

particular vulnerability. I don't

want to characterure that - it is

1:04:321:04:38

not the case across the bored, but

there are factors of that kind. The

1:04:381:04:43

nature of the radicalising threat is

more sophisticated and goes to the

1:04:431:04:47

point that was made earlier about a

cyber threat. Adversaries who are

1:04:471:04:54

targeting these individuals have

become more sophisticated - the

1:04:541:04:57

tools and techniques they are using

are more sophisticated. And of

1:04:571:05:03

course we need to be alert to the

effect as people who have been in

1:05:031:05:10

Syria return to the UK, although we

will try and manage that as

1:05:101:05:14

effectively as we can. We need to be

alert to that possibility as well. I

1:05:141:05:19

think we understand some of the

trends and therefore can probably

1:05:191:05:24

give a pretty good answer to the

what. It is harder to give an answer

1:05:241:05:29

to the why, I think. And that's

probably a matter for as much

1:05:291:05:35

academic research as our own

analysis.

You have slightly

1:05:351:05:41

anticipated my next question -

something which has come across from

1:05:411:05:44

a number of your answers today is

one of the things has changed is

1:05:441:05:49

people are becoming radicalised more

quickly than has previously been the

1:05:491:05:53

case, so it would be really useful

to understand what you and your team

1:05:531:05:57

in the Government are doing to try

and understand that, to obviously,

1:05:571:06:01

as means to try and counter it in

the future.

We are trying to

1:06:011:06:05

understand that. If I can give you

an example, you will review the very

1:06:051:06:10

high profile case of the schoolgirls

from Bethnal Green who went out to

1:06:101:06:14

Syria. These were young women who

had shown no evidence to close

1:06:141:06:19

friends or family of being

radicalised and suddenly off they

1:06:191:06:22

went. It turned out, in essentially

a private space they had been

1:06:221:06:28

radicalised and were able to conceal

it from people who knew them, school

1:06:281:06:32

friends and so on. And that was a

new phenomenon. And we have been

1:06:321:06:41

working to understand that. It was

partly that that led to the prevent

1:06:411:06:47

duty and you will review that was a

piece of controversial legislation

1:06:471:06:53

which extended to several million

public servants t duty to report, as

1:06:531:06:57

they would report another kind of

vulnerability if they believed a

1:06:571:07:02

child was being subject to physical

or sexual abuse in the home, it

1:07:021:07:06

extended that duty to this area. And

requires teachers, for example, to

1:07:061:07:12

report, if they observe the kind of

behaviour that would lead them to

1:07:121:07:18

believe that a vulnerable young

person is at risk of being

1:07:181:07:23

radicalised F I think quite a lot of

the prevent case work, I have been

1:07:231:07:27

out on the channel programme, for

example, some people will be

1:07:271:07:30

familiar with, I have been out and

seen that in operation. If it often

1:07:301:07:35

focussed on young people and from

third sector, charities, etc, in

1:07:351:07:40

order to try and deal with that

threat. What we are trying to do is

1:07:401:07:44

ensure those programmes are

triggered as early as possible and

1:07:441:07:49

indeed learn from the experience of

others. It is an area I wouldn't

1:07:491:07:53

wish to characterise it as me and my

team, except in the national

1:07:531:07:57

security community as a whole is

there. This is an area that Home

1:07:571:08:04

Office, DCLG, devolved

administrations and the police are

1:08:041:08:07

looking very, very carefully at.

Thank you. Moving on to my last

1:08:071:08:11

question. Now Daesh has lost most of

its territory, which do you believe

1:08:111:08:17

is the greater threat? Is it

returning fighters or people who

1:08:171:08:22

have stayed at home but find

themselves inspired by Daesh

1:08:221:08:29

propaganda online?

To be honest, I

am not sure I would want to say

1:08:291:08:34

which one is greater. Both are a

threat. We have more, we probably

1:08:341:08:39

have more control points over

returning fighters. Many would come

1:08:391:08:41

through Turkey. We have got a very

strong relationship with the Turkish

1:08:411:08:45

authorities and have been able to

bring people f they have to come

1:08:451:08:53

home, bring people under control. If

they have a dual nationality we

1:08:531:08:57

might remove that. We probably have

more control points, including our

1:08:571:09:01

own borders, on people returning

home, as long as we have

1:09:011:09:04

intelligence about them. I think the

nature of the sort of, the domestic

1:09:041:09:11

radicalisation on people who are

radicalised online for the reasons

1:09:111:09:14

we see. I recommend the Anderson

report, it is not a very long

1:09:141:09:17

report, to those who have not read

it. That report sets out just how it

1:09:171:09:22

is possible for people to hide in

plain sight, having been radicalised

1:09:221:09:27

online. And therefore, it is even

more challenging for the police and

1:09:271:09:33

other authorities to understand, to

be aware of that threat and then

1:09:331:09:36

take the right, put the right sort

of interventions in place and the

1:09:361:09:40

kind of changesvy talked about are

de-- changes I have talked about,

1:09:401:09:44

like the prevent duty, but those

which are coming in as we approach

1:09:441:09:49

the Anderson review, are redinned to

deal with them.

And -- designed to

1:09:491:09:52

deal with them. And the Defence

Secretary's statements about what

1:09:521:09:56

our approach should be in response

to returning fighters - does that

1:09:561:10:02

signal a formal change of approach

in the Government's policy, or is

1:10:021:10:06

that more general commentary?

It

doesn't signal a formal change of

1:10:061:10:10

approach. There have been occasions,

which you are aware, on which we

1:10:101:10:15

have had to takeleten strikes in

theatre, that has been the

1:10:151:10:20

appropriate thing to do. If people

have dual nationality we will seek

1:10:201:10:24

to remove that so they cannot return

and pose a threat. Other people we

1:10:241:10:27

will bring back under control and if

they either then face a criminal

1:10:271:10:34

justice prol success or potentially

other kinds of executive measures of

1:10:341:10:40

that kind, depending on which is

appropriate to the individual case.

1:10:401:10:45

It is that fuel intervention. Among

those interventions is and remains

1:10:451:10:52

lethal strikes when this is

necessary.

It is not envisaged that

1:10:521:10:57

the Defence Secretary statement's

envisaged a greater use of drone

1:10:571:11:03

strikes than previously...

They are

used when appropriate.

1:11:031:11:11

From the 2017 attacks and how is the

capability review taking into

1:11:111:11:16

account the recommendations recently

identified by MI5 and CT policing

1:11:161:11:22

for improving counter-terrorism

operations is that also prevent part

1:11:221:11:26

of that strategy?

Thank you, so this

is one of the dozen or so projects

1:11:261:11:33

within the capability review and

essentially, as we were just

1:11:331:11:37

discussing, it is the, this will be,

these lessons will be accounted for

1:11:371:11:43

in the counter-terrorism project or

the contest 3.0 project, as we were

1:11:431:11:48

just discussing.

And will the

capability review be delayed as a

1:11:481:11:53

result of having to do so?

I don't

anticipate that, no. The work is in

1:11:531:12:00

hand. The work is on-going. But

there's no delay.

And the money that

1:12:001:12:13

you mentioned which has just been

announced, this additional £50

1:12:131:12:17

million, this is to assist this

process?

So the Home Secretary will

1:12:171:12:22

set out more detail about that on

the floor of the House, in the House

1:12:221:12:27

of Commons when she announces the

police funding settlement, which I

1:12:271:12:30

believe she's doing tomorrow or

Wednesday. I am not sure. Anyway,

1:12:301:12:33

this week. The actual £50 million

she and the Chancellor set out at

1:12:331:12:41

the weekend is to deal with the

capacity issue that the police have

1:12:411:12:45

faced this year and next year in

dealing the increase in operation,

1:12:451:12:54

removing the immediate threat. That

is related to, but somewhat separate

1:12:541:12:59

from, the changes in process, the

broadening out of the involvement of

1:12:591:13:07

other parts of Government that will

come through as a result of the

1:13:071:13:11

Anderson review and as part of the

overall contest, 3.0.

Do you see one

1:13:111:13:18

of your main responsibilities as

ensuring better co-ordination

1:13:181:13:22

between these different groups?

That's one of the lessons?

It is

1:13:221:13:27

essentially, that is a function I

would say is my responsibility when

1:13:271:13:31

I was at the Home Office and it was

to pull together all the homeland

1:13:311:13:35

security factors. But I think again

if I compare us to other countries,

1:13:351:13:40

the co-operation we see between our

intelligence agencies, between the

1:13:401:13:44

intelligence agencies and the police

and indeed increasingly between

1:13:441:13:50

those security actors and the wider

social policy community stands in

1:13:501:13:55

comparison with anyone. I think most

countries would look to us,

1:13:551:13:58

particularly if you think of prevent

programme, the involvement of

1:13:581:14:04

schools, of social security, of

other social policy in our

1:14:041:14:10

counter-terrorism work. Most others

have nothing comparable to the type

1:14:101:14:14

of liaison we have. We can work on

improving that. Make sure the data

1:14:141:14:20

flows t expertise are at the opt mum

level. That is part of what the

1:14:201:14:27

Anderson review talks about. Thank

you.

1:14:271:14:30

You said that the threat that we

face has intensified and diversified

1:14:341:14:41

and I would like to refer you to the

threat from Russia, which the

1:14:411:14:47

Foreign Secretary recently said was

now at a higher level than had been

1:14:471:14:52

the case for decades. I wonder if

you could talk about that and this

1:14:521:15:00

phrase modern deterrence and to what

extent is it involved an

1:15:001:15:07

intensification and diversification

of our own efforts and draw your

1:15:071:15:11

attention to what Lord Hanagan said,

that the United Kingdom has

1:15:111:15:18

underestimated Russia's ability and

intent to use unconventional

1:15:181:15:23

methods.

Thank you, Lord Trimble,

this is something that I think all

1:15:231:15:30

western democracies have faced. We

saw a mixture of propaganda and

1:15:301:15:36

cyber-attacks in the French

election. There are other high

1:15:361:15:40

profile cases of that case. If we

take that as an example, it was

1:15:401:15:45

clear it was not aimed to change the

result, there is no way outside

1:15:451:15:51

intervention could have shifted the

result of a two to one election

1:15:511:15:57

victory, but it was designed to

undermine the citizens' trust in the

1:15:571:16:01

systems. So we have fake news to use

the fashionable term, but propaganda

1:16:011:16:08

to use an old fashioned one, seeking

to undermine public support in the

1:16:081:16:14

Baltics for the enhanced forward

presence, including the British

1:16:141:16:18

presence. Stories about the conduct

of soldiers that are untrue and they

1:16:181:16:25

are clearly on this agenda. As I was

saying earlier, while we recognise

1:16:251:16:30

in 2015 the nature of that threat it

has intensified at pace and at a

1:16:301:16:37

greater pace than was anticipated

there. In terms of modern deterrence

1:16:371:16:41

we are working on this, this is one

of areas of capability review that

1:16:411:16:45

we are looking at and the general

approach we take to being able to

1:16:451:16:53

employ our capabilities to exploit

threats and opportunities. If we any

1:16:531:16:56

about the Russian example f we are,

let's say we're hit with a cyber-or

1:16:561:17:07

propaganda attack, probably a

deniable one, who they will disavow

1:17:071:17:13

knowledge of. The correct response

might not be in the same area of

1:17:131:17:17

operation. The correct response

might be to... To push back or

1:17:171:17:23

disrupt in a different area, where

we are exploiting our strengths and

1:17:231:17:27

their weaknesses. You will

understand I don't want to go into

1:17:271:17:33

detail in that a public session. But

you choose to fight on your ground

1:17:331:17:41

of strength. It is employing

different capabilities that exploit

1:17:411:17:51

oured opponents vulnerabilities.

One

of the things we want to do is

1:17:511:17:54

minimise our own vulnerabilities and

to use an old fashioned term, sub

1:17:541:18:02

version, are we looking to see what

extent foreign state actor,

1:18:021:18:09

particular ly Russian or others are

trying to subvert our way of doing

1:18:091:18:13

thing?

Yes we have a strategy that

sits under the rub rick of the

1:18:131:18:21

national state security for hostile

state activity and cyber and it is

1:18:211:18:27

designed to do just that.

On this

question of sub version, I don't

1:18:271:18:31

know if you read the works of people

like Luke Harding from the Guardian

1:18:311:18:37

on elements of state corruption of

British institutions or state

1:18:371:18:43

sponsored corruption of British

institutions, including finances and

1:18:431:18:48

economic output, we are seeing a

notable increase in such levels of

1:18:481:18:55

corruption of British organisations,

not exclusive to economic output,

1:18:551:19:01

including things like political

parties. Are you, have you diverted

1:19:011:19:06

resources away from other elements

of MI5s responsibilities to what

1:19:061:19:14

might be seen as more fundamental

part of British state security.

You

1:19:141:19:18

understand I'm not going to comment

on the allocation of MI5 resources.

1:19:181:19:23

You know the reasons for that. But I

probably can say that they are well

1:19:231:19:29

aware of that risk and act

accordingly.

Can I ask about, it is

1:19:291:19:39

a bit old fashioned, but about

expertise, during the Cold War in

1:19:391:19:44

Britain we had a lot of expertise in

relation to Russia and that was the

1:19:441:19:49

case I think until quite recently,

there is a sense, I have a sense

1:19:491:19:54

that that expertise has been lost

and now we seem to have a much

1:19:541:19:58

dimmer view of what is happening in

Russia. Would you agree with that.

1:19:581:20:02

If we have lost expertise and I have

a sense not just with Russia, but

1:20:021:20:07

with other country, what are we

doing to try and build it back up.

I

1:20:071:20:16

don't know that's right. We often

hear it. But we have for example if

1:20:161:20:21

I look at the run of ambassadors in

Russia, we have real deep Russia

1:20:211:20:25

experts who have done that job one

after the other and I use that as a

1:20:251:20:30

proxy for it. I suppose there is

clearly an over all capacity issue

1:20:301:20:37

that when we faced essentially a

single threat during the Cold War we

1:20:371:20:43

had a great deal of expertise in

that and the internal threat was

1:20:431:20:49

from Northern Ireland, Republican

terrorism. And those, so therefore

1:20:491:20:52

we had a lot of resources devoted to

both of those. We now have a lot of

1:20:521:21:00

resources dealing with terrorism,

international terrorism, of the time

1:21:001:21:03

we have difference cussed. I think

that has -- discussed. I think that

1:21:031:21:10

has sometimes been exaggerated we

have a balance across the agency and

1:21:101:21:13

they have sought to maintain that

diverse expertise. There is always

1:21:131:21:22

an adjustment between different

areas.

Given your position as

1:21:221:21:30

principal adviceor, where do you see

the greatest threat, is it from

1:21:301:21:37

terrorism or sub version of... Led

by state actors.

I don't think it is

1:21:371:21:42

an either or.

But what is greater.

It is a threat, it is a threat to

1:21:421:21:50

what I guess would be... Of course

Russia and a strategic threat from a

1:21:501:21:59

nuclear state presents a significant

strategic effect to us. But given

1:21:591:22:04

the capabilities we are and our

allies have it is unlike will I ly

1:22:041:22:12

that threat will manifest itself

except in the ways we see. But we

1:22:121:22:16

face an acute threat that is killing

British citizens from terrorists. I

1:22:161:22:22

just don't think... One can say one

is more than the other. They're

1:22:221:22:26

different. We need to address both.

Can I press you? The reason I ask

1:22:261:22:31

you on the threat to the nation

state is because we are seeing

1:22:311:22:36

through sub version and through what

you referred to as propaganda, we

1:22:361:22:41

are seeing institutions that we have

grown to trust for our security like

1:22:411:22:48

NATO become undermined by

organisations that we see being

1:22:481:22:52

attacked by state actors. I

therefore question are we seeing the

1:22:521:22:57

nation state, the British nation

state, the United Kingdom and Great

1:22:571:23:01

Britain and Northern Ireland being

undermined by sub version by foreign

1:23:011:23:05

state powers and is that a greater

threat to us as a nation than

1:23:051:23:11

damaging though it and painful

though it and awful though it is,

1:23:111:23:15

terrorism.

I wouldn't characterise

it that way. To put it simply if you

1:23:151:23:22

think of risk, it is threat minus

resilience. So if I think about the

1:23:221:23:27

risk to this country and the risk to

the citizen and the country, we have

1:23:271:23:32

to take into account not only the

nature of the threat, but the nature

1:23:321:23:37

of the country's resilience against

that threat. So yes you're right,

1:23:371:23:40

there are efforts to undermine NATO

and to sew dissent and undermain

1:23:401:23:49

mine the confidence of the citizen,

but we should have competence in our

1:23:491:23:55

resilience against those threats.

They haven't really worked and we

1:23:551:23:58

are seeking to strongen that

resilience. Whether through making

1:23:581:24:04

ourselves stronger against

cyber-attacks and ensuring that

1:24:041:24:06

people understand that fake news is

fake news. So I just don't think one

1:24:061:24:12

should try and look at this in a

binary way. They're different kinds

1:24:121:24:18

of threat and they're both national

security threats and there are

1:24:181:24:21

others and we have to wrap the right

capabilities against both.

Lord

1:24:211:24:29

Brennan and Dr Lewis.

Listening

carefully to your answers gives an

1:24:291:24:37

impression of a role for analysis,

assessment and co-ordination. But

1:24:371:24:42

here we are talking about a threat

to the state from other states. Who

1:24:421:24:48

is to give direction and leadership

to counter such a threat - you, the

1:24:481:24:57

council, if not who?

The national

Security Council is the short answer

1:24:571:25:00

and we bring those issues to the

council. Because it does require

1:25:001:25:06

collective effort and the council

will give direction and then part of

1:25:061:25:10

my job is to ensure that the

council's direction is implemented

1:25:101:25:13

across government.

Dr Lewis.

We

heard a story in the media today

1:25:131:25:21

about the CIA having assisted Russia

to thwart an Islamist attack. Can we

1:25:211:25:29

take it for granted that despite our

relationship with Russia at the

1:25:291:25:33

moment that, if we had similar

information that we would do

1:25:331:25:40

likewise and does that not open up

possibilities for co-operation with

1:25:401:25:46

countries that we may have to stand

up to in one theatre, but where we

1:25:461:25:50

may have a common interest in

another?

The short answer is yes to

1:25:501:25:57

both. We... You will be aware of

Alexander Litvinenko measures we put

1:25:571:26:04

in place, but we carved out an area

of operational liaison with the

1:26:041:26:10

Russians in the run up to the Sochi

Olympics. In order to ensure not

1:26:101:26:15

only that we would pass them

information against a threat to

1:26:151:26:19

their own citizens, but a threat to

ours as well. And so you are right

1:26:191:26:25

there is, there are limited

exchanges on this. We would expect

1:26:251:26:29

them to do the same as well. Whether

that leads to broader co-operation I

1:26:291:26:34

think goes to the whole question as

you will be aware the Foreign

1:26:341:26:38

Secretary is going to Russia and

goes to the question of the over all

1:26:381:26:43

stance, which to choose, use the

Prime Minister's words is engage and

1:26:431:26:48

be ware. We have to be aware of

Alexander Litvinenko measures, we

1:26:481:26:52

are not returning to business as as

usual with Russia. But there are

1:26:521:27:02

areas that are to be pursued. You

have mice highlighted an important

1:27:021:27:11

one.

On Brexit what does the

Government need to do to assure

1:27:111:27:23

people that Britain is interested in

common security.

The simplest point

1:27:231:27:26

is we have done so but it is because

it is in our national security

1:27:261:27:31

interest. Forgive me nor for a

sporting defence, goal line defence

1:27:311:27:39

is not what we need. There is spill

overs from conflict and instability

1:27:391:27:45

to Europe's south. An adversary in

Russia to Europe's east. Those

1:27:451:27:54

threats of course spill into our

domestic security space as well.

1:27:541:27:58

That is true of all of us and it is

in our interests that European, that

1:27:581:28:03

security and defence in the European

continent is as effective as

1:28:031:28:08

possible. The Prime Minister has

spoken about a deep and special

1:28:081:28:13

partnership, that includes a

security partnership with the EU and

1:28:131:28:16

we set out in papers in September on

internal and external security,

1:28:161:28:21

saying the British vision for that

and we will now work those up into

1:28:211:28:26

proposals for the next phase of the

negotiations. The final point is it

1:28:261:28:32

is important to remember defence is

not just about co-operation with the

1:28:321:28:39

EU. NATO is the other main pillar.

There is a range of multinational

1:28:391:28:47

things we support that exist between

the two institutions or on their

1:28:471:28:56

baselines and bilateral relations,

notably with France, where we have

1:28:561:29:00

deepened our defence co-operation

with France.

So could you say what

1:29:001:29:04

the top priorities are in the next

few months?

Essentially it is what

1:29:041:29:10

we have been discussing, these are

common threats we face, we ha

1:29:101:29:18

intense co-operational co-operation

and we have supported them to defeat

1:29:181:29:26

terrorist threats in their own

territory, because of information we

1:29:261:29:30

have and we will want to continue to

do that and through NATO but not

1:29:301:29:36

exclusively, then it is important we

continue to modernise nay NATO and

1:29:361:29:42

its ability to deal with the

state-based threat and Russia. In

1:29:421:29:47

terms of the nature of the

co-operation, particularly in the

1:29:471:29:50

EU, there will be elements which we

set out in our paper that will want

1:29:501:29:56

to find ways of continuing, whether

data-sharing, operational

1:29:561:30:03

co-operation and our vision of that

is of a very close partnership on

1:30:031:30:09

security in particular, but also on

defence and foreign policy once we

1:30:091:30:12

have left.

1:30:121:30:15

Obviously, one has to wait and see

how that works out. That feeds into

1:30:171:30:21

my next question - how many of the

capabilities are likely to be

1:30:211:30:27

provisional until one knows the

withdrawal from the EU?

I would hope

1:30:271:30:31

not, because I hope that the

position that we set out, our

1:30:311:30:36

proposition, if you like, to our EU

friends and partners, set out in

1:30:361:30:41

those two security papers that we

published, internal-external that we

1:30:411:30:48

published in the early autumn will

be accepted and form the basis of

1:30:481:30:52

the future partnership. It is on

that basis that we have proceeding.

1:30:521:30:56

I think we have good grounds to

believe that is the case. They were

1:30:561:31:00

both well received, even at the

time, they were both well received.

1:31:001:31:04

When I talk to my European

counterparts or when I used to, what

1:31:041:31:09

they would call the Interior

Ministry I had exactly the same

1:31:091:31:12

response. We have to find a way

through this and ensure that we

1:31:121:31:19

maintain those channels of

operational channels that are

1:31:191:31:24

essential. We don't know how the

negotiations will go. There will be

1:31:241:31:29

significant challenges along the way

- nobody is underestimating that.

1:31:291:31:32

There is a strong desire, not only

this side, but the other side of the

1:31:321:31:36

channel to see this area of work

come toal productive conclusion. As

1:31:361:31:42

the Prime Minister has been in the

House talking about the European

1:31:421:31:46

Council just this afternoon, of

course that has been central to her

1:31:461:31:49

vision of the future partnership

since we first decided to leave.

1:31:491:32:05

Lord Hamilton?

I have been on this

committee for quite a bit of the

1:32:051:32:10

last Parliament. Rather late in the

day I discovered we were answerable

1:32:101:32:13

to Parliament for the whole of this

conflict stability fund. If you are

1:32:131:32:21

answerable to Parliament for money

being spent, you have to, as a

1:32:211:32:27

committee, have some idea how it is

being spent. So we started at the

1:32:271:32:30

thin end and said, perhaps you could

possibly tell us which countries it

1:32:301:32:33

was being spent in. No, was the

answer, that's a se cesmt

1:32:331:32:38

We might upset some of the countries

where it's being spent if it was

1:32:381:32:42

known it was being spent there.

There might be other countries that

1:32:421:32:47

we upset that weren't having money

spent on them. So we don't even know

1:32:471:32:51

officially which countries they are

being spent N let's be honest, a

1:32:511:32:54

large number of the countries are in

the public domain anyway.

1:32:541:33:00

So, we then said, can we be told how

it is spent. That was a bigger

1:33:001:33:05

secret than where it was being

spent. How can we be answerable to

1:33:051:33:09

Parliament for the spending of all

this money if we have absolutely no

1:33:091:33:13

idea where it is being spent or how

it is being spent.

So the answerable

1:33:131:33:19

to Parliament point I am confused

about. I feel you are Parliament and

1:33:191:33:23

I'm answerable to you, but there is

a whole range of parliamentary etty

1:33:231:33:27

quit which is perhaps out of my area

of knowledge. In terms of the

1:33:271:33:31

substance that you ask, because it

is clearly right on whatever basis,

1:33:311:33:35

that you have the right insight into

the cross-Government funds, in this

1:33:351:33:40

case the CSFF, in order for you to

be able to hold me and others

1:33:401:33:45

responsible for the expenditure. We

have just published the first annual

1:33:451:33:51

report into the CSFF, and there is a

great deal of material in there,

1:33:511:33:55

including some of the questions you

raised Lord Hamilton. There are some

1:33:551:33:59

questions not mentioned in that

report, which we are keeping secret.

1:33:591:34:02

That is not the vast majority, but

there are some areas which we think

1:34:021:34:07

should remain secret. I think we can

find our way, it has been done in

1:34:071:34:11

the past and other areas of

providing a briefing in camera, in

1:34:111:34:16

some way to help you understand some

of those. But, as I say, we just

1:34:161:34:22

published an annual review and it

has a lot more material is now in

1:34:221:34:26

the public domain about those funds

than was the case before.

1:34:261:34:30

Surely we should be security clear,

so we can give rather more of this

1:34:301:34:35

information that we get now?

I think

at least if we're operating in

1:34:351:34:41

private, then there is a great deal

of information that we can share

1:34:411:34:46

with you. I don't, I'm not aware

that the levels of clearance of

1:34:461:34:50

individual members has been an

issue, but I better take that away

1:34:501:34:53

if it has.

We did go for a briefing

in the Cabinet Office.

Yes.

Through

1:34:531:35:00

the usual two levels of security,

through the system. When we got

1:35:001:35:03

there, we said, what is the

classification for this committee?

1:35:031:35:07

And we were told it was below

secret.

Right.

So the difference

1:35:071:35:11

seemed to be a lot of point in being

there than going to all these

1:35:111:35:17

lengths than finding our way to the

Cabinet when the people briefing us

1:35:171:35:21

could have come here and told us all

these ben Nile things which were

1:35:211:35:27

there anyway.

Was that feedback on

the last two hours?

No.

I hope not.

1:35:271:35:34

I take the point, entirely. I think

we need to find ways of being able

1:35:341:35:38

to brief you in confidence in this

forum, but without the cameras on so

1:35:381:35:42

we're not in public and there will

be some element where it may be

1:35:421:35:46

appropriate to be able to brief you

in the Cabinet Office or in a more

1:35:461:35:51

secure environment, but I'm not

familiar with the exact sequence of

1:35:511:35:54

events you mentioned. Let me take it

away and I will come back to you and

1:35:541:35:58

perhaps we can talk to the Clarks

and madam chair to work it out.

A

1:35:581:36:06

very final question. - what does

global Britain mean to you?

Three

1:36:061:36:16

things, I thismt first investing or

reinvesting in some, how can I put

1:36:161:36:21

it, big partnerships, big

relationships around the world as we

1:36:211:36:23

try and make the most of the

opportunities of Brexit and those

1:36:231:36:27

are core allies, old friends in

place. I think, second is

1:36:271:36:37

strengthening our support for the

rules-based international system. It

1:36:371:36:42

has worked extremely well in our

favour and I don't just mean the

1:36:421:36:46

defence side but it has worked well

in our favour over the past 70 years

1:36:461:36:50

and will probably become more

important in the 21st century as the

1:36:501:36:55

ge yo politics becomes contested.

And we have a significant role to

1:36:551:36:57

play in that. I think, third, it's

about our image, our influence. I

1:36:571:37:07

think the Foreign Secretary

sometimes used the word, our soft

1:37:071:37:10

power around the world, the great

campaign, the fact that one of the

1:37:101:37:14

assets we should think about, even

if it is not a deployable national

1:37:141:37:19

security asset are, for example,

some of the remarkable NGOs we have

1:37:191:37:25

based here, Oxfam, Save the

Children, the Halo Trust, etc. A

1:37:251:37:30

sense of connection with these

country, the British Council, World

1:37:301:37:35

Service, would be others. Personally

that is the way I would characterise

1:37:351:37:38

it. I expect the Prime Minister and

Foreign Secretary will characterise

1:37:381:37:44

it differently, hopefully not so

differently that it is incompatible

1:37:441:37:49

with what I just said.

The three

points you gave, none of them could

1:37:491:37:54

you do more for less?

I think it's,

no, I wouldn't say that, actually. I

1:37:541:38:00

think we can have higher impact than

we have now without necessarily

1:38:001:38:03

being a resource question. I know it

has been a thread to our

1:38:031:38:07

conversation today, but I do think,

having run a big department and

1:38:071:38:11

having dealt with an awful lot of

budgetary pressures in that

1:38:111:38:14

department and I didn't get 0.5%

real in that department over the

1:38:141:38:18

time I was there. I think there is a

great deal Government can do. It is

1:38:181:38:23

not just about constituencies to

achieve greater impact with the

1:38:231:38:26

funds we have available to us,

particularly if we pool them

1:38:261:38:29

together and use them in a coherent

way. I think if you are in my job or

1:38:291:38:34

in a job running a department we

have to make the best use of every

1:38:341:38:39

pound of the taxpayers' money.

The

thing you have not mentioned is the

1:38:391:38:44

Commonwealth and the intelligence

which is something which should be

1:38:441:38:47

mentioned in terms of our position

in the world.

I mean I agree with

1:38:471:38:51

that ep tirely. I could have, I felt

I would be trying the patience of

1:38:511:38:54

the committee if I went further. I

was trying to identify this in some

1:38:541:38:59

fairly big handfuls. You are right,

the Commonwealth summit next year is

1:38:591:39:02

a very important opportunity for us.

It goes to that question of

1:39:021:39:05

influence and our image in the

world. It shows that we are an

1:39:051:39:12

outward-facing nation and some of

the characterures of the decision to

1:39:121:39:15

leave the EU out there are wrong.

And I would, I would put that into

1:39:151:39:20

that second basket of our commitment

to international institutions.

1:39:201:39:24

Another minute or two left. I will

squeeze in a couple of brief ones

1:39:241:39:28

out of the long list of the

questions I had. Have you met with

1:39:281:39:31

the service chiefs to discuss their

review? What defence expert tease to

1:39:311:39:38

you have within the national

security secretariat and given that

1:39:381:39:43

out of, I believe, 12 strands in the

review, at least four, defence,

1:39:431:39:51

modern deterrents, proliferation,

nuclear proliferation and strategic

1:39:511:39:56

communications are strongly

defence-related. Why have you stated

1:39:561:40:02

previously in our correspondence

that because the main decisions on

1:40:021:40:06

defence were taken in 2015 this

review is not defence focussed?

1:40:061:40:11

Surely this review has huge

implications for defence?

The point

1:40:111:40:14

I was trying to make is it was a

broad-based review looking at a

1:40:141:40:19

whole range of different

capabilities across defence but the

1:40:191:40:24

Foreign Office, development, the

security and intelligence agencies

1:40:241:40:26

and as you rightly say strategic

communications. By the way nuclear

1:40:261:40:30

proliferation is not one of the

dozen projects separately, but we

1:40:301:40:35

will report on the list as we report

on the review itself. I can't

1:40:351:40:48

remember, but a large number offings

with the -- number of meetings with

1:40:481:40:52

the top of the MoD. Those are in

different formats. I've had

1:40:521:40:58

one-to-ones with several of the

service chiefs. I got a couple more

1:40:581:41:01

to come. As I said to you before, Dr

Lewis, the defence project within

1:41:011:41:08

the review is being led by the MoD

and our job is to try and pull that

1:41:081:41:15

together in the overall capabilities

to make sure all the various pieces

1:41:151:41:18

fit together. I do have exper tease.

It is a small team but I have

1:41:181:41:22

expertise including people from the

Ministry of Defence working on this

1:41:221:41:25

for me. In several MPs. Including

the MoD have ser conned people into

1:41:251:41:32

the review team to ensure we have

the right connections.

I have both

1:41:321:41:39

Mr Gray and Lord Hamilton and we

have about three minutes left.

1:41:391:41:45

Should not one of our post Brexit

ambitions be to lead European Nato?

1:41:451:41:53

I think actually we probably do that

already, Lord Hamilton. I think that

1:41:531:41:59

is a good objective for us to have.

Of course in securing sir peach, the

1:41:591:42:13

chairman of the military of Nato, I

think we have been able to show we

1:42:131:42:17

have a leadership role within the

alliance. It is more than jobs. It

1:42:171:42:20

is about the agenda. We've led the

2% campaign within Europe. That was

1:42:201:42:27

a commitment made at the Wales

summit and it is one that we

1:42:271:42:30

continue to press on in the Nato

country to fulfil. We generate a

1:42:301:42:34

great deal of thinking about the

modernisation agenda, balancing the

1:42:341:42:39

southern and eastern flanks, if you

like, whereas other countries are

1:42:391:42:43

more focussed on one rather than the

other. We are in a good position to

1:42:431:42:47

lead on Nato. That is something we

should stretch our ambitions on in

1:42:471:42:50

the future.

I entirely take your

point about your job, about the

1:42:501:42:58

whole security. You do make a very

good point that defence is an

1:42:581:43:02

extremely important part of what you

do. Is it not therefore a strong

1:43:021:43:06

argument that in addition to this

committee you ought to make an

1:43:061:43:09

appearance in front of the Defence

Select Committee, because surely

1:43:091:43:12

they would have a keen interest in

what you have to say about the risks

1:43:121:43:16

and about the changes. Surely an

appearance in front of the Select

1:43:161:43:21

Committee would make a great deal of

sense?

I was hoping I wouldn't have

1:43:211:43:24

to answer that question.

It is why I

asked it.

I know it. Maybe I can

1:43:241:43:29

make two points. I know time is

short, madam Chair. Please do

1:43:291:43:34

accept, this is not about my

personal willingness about appearing

1:43:341:43:39

before parliamentary committees. I

appeared a lot in my last job. I

1:43:391:43:43

used to appear about three times a

year. I am happy if to do that if it

1:43:431:43:48

would suit your needs and I would go

at shorter notice if there was an

1:43:481:43:54

emerging issue and the Prime

Minister felt it should be me to

1:43:541:43:58

appear. Please, it is not about my

personal appetite for appearing

1:43:581:44:04

before the defence committee. The

Prime Minister set out the position

1:44:041:44:07

I think in a letter to Dr Lewis, and

it relates to the rules. As an

1:44:071:44:13

official I appear in front of

ministers, except for accounting

1:44:131:44:18

officers of the, appear in front of

ministers and with their content. As

1:44:181:44:23

a Cabinet minister office my

minister is the Prime Minister. In

1:44:231:44:25

her view and in the Government's

view the appropriate to appear

1:44:251:44:31

before committees are mostly those

from the committees themselves.

1:44:311:44:34

There are precedents, as Dr Lewis

will no doubt point out where my

1:44:341:44:40

predecessors have appeared before

the committee. There are those where

1:44:401:44:45

they have reviewed national security

advisers to appear before

1:44:451:44:48

committees. In the end it is the

decision that ministers take when

1:44:481:44:53

and whether and when officials

appear before departmental

1:44:531:44:56

committees. But my own view, and I

think the Prime Minister's view, is

1:44:561:45:00

that because my job is

cross-cutting, a cross-cutting

1:45:001:45:04

committee feels that is the natural

point for scrutiny.

1:45:041:45:07

So if the Prime Minister took a

different view in front of the

1:45:121:45:15

liaison committee, you would be

quite content to appear before the

1:45:151:45:18

Defence Commitee?

Just to be clear,

this is a government position. Those

1:45:181:45:27

rules were carefully negotiated. It

is a government position that

1:45:271:45:31

officials appear on behalf of

ministers and with their consent.

1:45:311:45:36

Departmental ministers and their

parliamentary secretaries are the

1:45:361:45:41

appropriate people to appear before

select committees in those

1:45:411:45:43

circumstances.

Thank you very much.

We have come to the end of our time.

1:45:431:45:49

Thank you very much indeed for the

time you spent with us and the

1:45:491:45:53

answers you have given. Could I also

say to you, something Lord Hamilton

1:45:531:45:58

touched on, one of the things that

has been... And I understand

1:45:581:46:07

completely. The creative tension

between select committees and

1:46:071:46:09

government. But it has been a

long-running concern of this

1:46:091:46:14

committee ever since it was first

set up that there is insufficient

1:46:141:46:20

access and insufficient mutual

confidence. I am very mindful of the

1:46:201:46:26

way the IFC started off under Lord

King and where it is now. My

1:46:261:46:30

ambition for this committee is that

we should and up not in the same

1:46:301:46:37

place as the ISC, which is

different, but in a position where

1:46:371:46:40

there is more sharing of information

and much more mutual confidence than

1:46:401:46:43

there is now. I am grateful for your

remarks about being prepared to

1:46:431:46:47

consider some of that. We would like

you to do so. There was concern

1:46:471:46:56

because the secretary couldn't tell

us what areas of policy were covered

1:46:561:47:00

under the capability review. There

are constant little pin pricks like

1:47:001:47:03

that where there is a feeling of, we

don't intend to share that with you,

1:47:031:47:08

we don't intend to tell you

anything. And as I say, I think it

1:47:081:47:12

is to our mutual benefit if we look

afresh at all of this and see what

1:47:121:47:15

we can do in terms of working

together in the future. So I leave

1:47:151:47:19

that helpful thought with you. And

thank you very much for coming.

1:47:191:47:25

Madam chair, thank you very much.

Thank you for the session. I remain

1:47:251:47:29

at your disposal and I will pick

that point up before my next

1:47:291:47:35

hearing. Thank you.

1:47:351:47:40

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