21/04/2013 Sunday Politics London


21/04/2013

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Sunday Politics. The government is going to court to prevent an EU tax

:00:45.:00:49.

hitting the City of London, as more pressure is piled onto the Prime

:00:49.:00:54.

Minister to deliver on his pledge to bring back powers from Brussels.

:00:54.:00:59.

He wants to be in the centre ground of British politics, but claims the

:00:59.:01:04.

centre is moving left. How will Ed Miliband's strategy go

:01:04.:01:10.

down next month? Two years into civil war, it is

:01:10.:01:17.

claimed an estimated 70,000 lives. Is it time to arm the Syrian rebels?

:01:17.:01:21.

On Sunday politics in London, our council is doing enough to chase up

:01:21.:01:25.

debts? Authorities have �800 million in

:01:25.:01:35.
:01:35.:01:44.

brightest. They are limbering up, as they should on marathon day. As the

:01:44.:01:50.

stragglers crossed the finish line, let's turn first two events in

:01:50.:01:57.

Boston. It seems it is getting much more difficult to draw the line

:01:57.:02:01.

between home-grown terrorism and international terrorism. Exactly.

:02:01.:02:06.

This event, even though it was much smaller in scale than 911, had much

:02:06.:02:14.

more in common with seven Flash seven. These terrorists were to a

:02:14.:02:24.

large extent home-grown. The one consolation that America has had

:02:24.:02:28.

since 911 is that they have not been subjected to home-grown terrorism of

:02:28.:02:36.

this kind. So it is a big psychological bond. The Americans

:02:36.:02:40.

thought their Muslim community was better integrated than ours.

:02:40.:02:46.

Exactly. Boston is the most liberal city in the United States, but they

:02:46.:02:50.

were saying that they did not want to have any prejudice against

:02:50.:02:56.

Muslims because of this, but clearly there is going to be quite a big

:02:56.:03:00.

domestic debate in the United States about this, because the FBI had

:03:00.:03:06.

identified the elder brother, and had interviewed him. The Washington

:03:06.:03:09.

Post reported that they were concerned that there was not enough

:03:09.:03:15.

for them to continue further. found slightly reassuring about the

:03:15.:03:19.

whole horrible scenario was that these boys appear to have been

:03:19.:03:25.

radicalised at the local mosque, which is a familiar tale, isn't it?

:03:25.:03:30.

The Sunday Times interviewed the uncle of the bombers yesterday, and

:03:30.:03:33.

he did tell that familiar tale of boys that were drifters, they didn't

:03:33.:03:37.

know where they were going, and they were influenced in the local mosque.

:03:37.:03:41.

It seems to me something that is possible to tackle. Even though it

:03:41.:03:45.

didn't look like it for a while, it is another example of Islamist

:03:45.:03:54.

terrorism. Yes. On September the 12th 2001, had we known that we

:03:54.:03:59.

would go 12 years without a successful Islamist attack on

:03:59.:04:03.

American territory, we would have found that incredible. It is a

:04:03.:04:08.

success that we have gone this far without an attack of that kind. It

:04:08.:04:13.

also, potentially, tells the change in tactics with the Chechen

:04:14.:04:22.

nationalists. Until now, their war has been a war with Russia, fought

:04:22.:04:25.

that foil. Their leader has been trying to turn it into a wider

:04:26.:04:30.

global struggle. The mystery is still, why Boston? If it is a

:04:30.:04:36.

Chechen cause, what has it got to do with Boston?

:04:36.:04:38.

The government is going to the European Court of Justice in

:04:38.:04:42.

Luxembourg to protect the City of London from attacks on financial

:04:42.:04:47.

transactions. It 11 EU countries want to introduce them. Fair enough,

:04:47.:04:52.

say Euro-sceptics, but there has been no progress on David Cameron's

:04:52.:04:56.

promised to bring back powers from Europe. 500 business leaders are

:04:56.:05:02.

pressing the PM to deliver this week. We are now going to talk to a

:05:02.:05:07.

member of the Fresh Start Group of Conservative MPs. Do you see this as

:05:07.:05:11.

a move by the government, a more robust attitude by the government,

:05:11.:05:17.

to go to court? On the issue of the financial transactions tax, it is

:05:17.:05:22.

important to remember that this is about financial services across the

:05:22.:05:27.

board, and eurozone dominated transactions that can take place

:05:27.:05:31.

wholly outside Europe. It is protectionist at a time when the

:05:31.:05:36.

world economy needs to be liberalised. Is it symbolic of the

:05:36.:05:40.

more robust attitude to Europe? think it is right that the

:05:40.:05:50.
:05:50.:05:58.

government is fighting a measure, tooth and nail, using the diplomatic

:05:58.:06:01.

process and the legal one, which is bad for Europe, world trade and

:06:01.:06:03.

British business. Mr Cameron is sending your group to Europe to

:06:03.:06:06.

negotiate powers back, the Fresh Start Group. Isn't that a job for

:06:06.:06:13.

government? There is a job for us to make a case. The government has got

:06:13.:06:17.

its review of competencies to work out precisely the due diligence and

:06:17.:06:21.

the cost benefit analysis of all the different EU areas, and then it will

:06:21.:06:26.

have to go back to the commission and the member states to make their

:06:26.:06:33.

case. In terms of repatriation, what exactly has been achieved and will

:06:33.:06:40.

be achieved by 2015, with the general election? It will be hard to

:06:40.:06:45.

achieve a huge amount within coalition. David Cameron wants to

:06:45.:06:50.

have a review of competencies, to start the negotiation process, and

:06:50.:06:56.

put it to a referendum. There are some things we will repatriate, such

:06:56.:07:00.

as crime and policing. We will exercise the block opt-out that the

:07:00.:07:04.

government says it will, and we will decide which measure out of the 135

:07:04.:07:09.

really is in the British interest. The government has announced the

:07:09.:07:15.

block opt-out, so they must be on board. Any substantive change in our

:07:15.:07:20.

relationship with Europe has got to wait until the next election, and is

:07:20.:07:25.

predicated on a Tory victory. Is that correct? The Conservatives can

:07:25.:07:30.

only talk for what they would do if they were elected back. With the

:07:30.:07:35.

coalition deal in 2010, we knew that freezing the EU position was one of

:07:35.:07:39.

the components of this deal. Lamentable as it may be for a

:07:39.:07:46.

conservative like me, I recognise that was the price of the deal.

:07:46.:07:52.

can make no progress on this side of the election then? We have the

:07:52.:07:58.

safeguard we have in relation to financial services. We would also

:07:58.:08:02.

like to do something about benefit tourism, which Iain Duncan Smith is

:08:02.:08:06.

locked in negotiation with the European Commission about. Let's be

:08:06.:08:10.

realistic about this and not get ahead of ourselves with the

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rhetoric. We are constrained with what we can do in coalition.

:08:16.:08:22.

after repatriation, let's assume that you win the next election and

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you go to repatriates, and you end up with largely the status quo

:08:30.:08:32.

between London and Brussels, would you then say that we should vote to

:08:32.:08:39.

leave the EU? If we got crumbs out of the renegotiation deal, I think

:08:39.:08:43.

it would only strengthen the hand of those who are saying that Britain

:08:43.:08:48.

has got to exit to look after its vital national interests. That's not

:08:48.:08:53.

what I want. I want to see us fight hard for a better deal. That's what

:08:53.:08:59.

the Prime Minister is trying to achieve. Is it is the charred -- if

:08:59.:09:03.

it is the difference between the status quo and getting out, you

:09:03.:09:08.

would say to get out? We are going to have a renegotiation in good

:09:08.:09:14.

faith. I am not going to start making threats. The reality is,

:09:14.:09:18.

there is an interesting opinion survey on this, and by three to one

:09:18.:09:26.

the British people would rather renegotiate with the EU than

:09:26.:09:31.

withdraw. It is a test for Britain, as also for countries like Germany,

:09:31.:09:37.

who want us to stay in. Unemployment is up, deficit reduction has

:09:37.:09:41.

stalled, and there is little or no growth in the economy. Even the most

:09:41.:09:46.

tribal of Tories could claim that the coalition strategy is a success.

:09:46.:09:54.

So support should be high, but it's not. It is even starting to slide.

:09:54.:09:57.

What can it Miliband -- Ed Miliband do to improve his party's appeal and

:09:57.:10:06.

his own image? Ed Miliband talked of the deep

:10:06.:10:10.

convictions that helped Margaret Thatcher win three elections. But

:10:10.:10:14.

what are the deep convictions of Ed Miliband? He claims politics is

:10:14.:10:24.
:10:24.:10:27.

challenged by a dominant figure in Labour politics, one Tony Blair. He

:10:27.:10:31.

wrote that the financial crisis has not brought a decisive shift to the

:10:31.:10:36.

left. Next week's election in England and Wales will be eight test

:10:36.:10:42.

of the party's popularity as we get closer to a general election in

:10:42.:10:47.

2015. The shadow to and local governments and Hilary Benn joins me

:10:47.:10:56.

now for the Sunday Interview. Hilary Benn, Labour is 7% ahead on

:10:56.:11:01.

an average of the most recent polls. Given the dire state of the

:11:01.:11:08.

economy, that is hardly impressive. 7% ahead is 7% ahead. The fact is

:11:08.:11:12.

that the public gave the coalition the benefit of the doubt when they

:11:12.:11:16.

came in, given the state of the economy and what had happened to

:11:16.:11:21.

lots of countries around the world. Nearly three years on, people are

:11:21.:11:24.

beginning to see that George Osborne's economic plan is not

:11:24.:11:34.
:11:34.:11:43.

working, and the IMF is now saying that it is not succeeding and he

:11:44.:11:46.

should think about something else. That reflects what we have been

:11:46.:11:48.

arguing for some time. Let me show you what the situation was in April

:11:49.:11:51.

1990 five, two years before the 97 election. We are taking a poll that

:11:51.:11:54.

is favourable to you at the moment. You were 30 points ahead before the

:11:54.:12:00.

1997 election. So it's not a great result. It is different times and

:12:00.:12:06.

different circumstances. You are up against an unpopular government

:12:06.:12:13.

presiding over an unpopular economic policy. The last two years of local

:12:13.:12:18.

elections, we have done well, we have gained seats and councils. That

:12:18.:12:23.

is what really matters - how people cast their vote when they come to

:12:23.:12:30.

the polls. Politicians always say that! It's not just your average is

:12:30.:12:36.

7%, your leader is slipping. By some measures in some polls, you are down

:12:36.:12:40.

to your lowest measures of the year. As economic news has got worse

:12:40.:12:50.
:12:50.:12:53.

throughout the year, why? Polls go up and down. If you go back to the

:12:53.:12:56.

1979 election, the then Prime Minister without polling the then

:12:56.:13:01.

Leader of the Opposition, and you remember what the result was. In

:13:01.:13:05.

this election, people will be looking at their falling living

:13:05.:13:09.

standards, rising unemployment, rising national debt, and the

:13:09.:13:13.

government having to borrow more. People can see that the economic

:13:13.:13:18.

plan is not working. If you have a plan that isn't working, you should

:13:18.:13:23.

change course. My argument isn't that people cannot see that the

:13:23.:13:28.

economic plan is not working, it's that they still do not want to vote

:13:28.:13:34.

for you. Your leader is an even bigger problem. The latest poll

:13:34.:13:40.

shows only 24% think Ed Miliband is up to being Prime Minister. Given

:13:40.:13:46.

that only around 34 want to vote for you, 8% of Labour voters do not rate

:13:46.:13:53.

him as a PM! I think he is a strong and courageous leader. He has taken

:13:53.:13:59.

to big decisions. One, to break with consensus. He did that when it came

:13:59.:14:03.

to News International and what should be done with the Levenson

:14:03.:14:10.

enquiry. But he also broke with the consensus with what we should do

:14:10.:14:16.

with the enquiry -- with the economy. The media, the IMF,

:14:16.:14:19.

everybody said that George Osborne's plan was the right thing

:14:19.:14:24.

to do, and now we find that it has not worked. The government is giving

:14:24.:14:28.

tax cuts to millionaire's, while taking money off many of my

:14:28.:14:37.

constituents. That may be true. Why is it the case that the more people

:14:37.:14:42.

see of him the less impressed they are? He is heading towards three

:14:42.:14:46.

years as your leader, and his personal popularity in several polls

:14:46.:14:53.

is now at an all-time low. Why? not accept that. The real measure is

:14:53.:15:00.

not the polls, it is how people choose to vote. Your party spends a

:15:00.:15:07.

lot of money on polls. Why is his personal popularity solo? Lots of

:15:07.:15:11.

parties do polling. What really matters is how we do in the local

:15:11.:15:18.

elections. In the last two years, in local elections, we have seen Labour

:15:18.:15:28.
:15:28.:15:30.

gained seats in councils, including Ed Miliband claims the centre

:15:30.:15:34.

ground has moved to the left. What is the evidence of that? People

:15:34.:15:38.

have seen the impact of the economic crisis. There is a much

:15:38.:15:43.

greater willingness to take tough action against the banks. We have

:15:43.:15:49.

proposed a tax on bank has bonuses to give people a start. -- banking

:15:49.:15:54.

bonuses. Everybody hates the banks. That is not evidence of a move to

:15:54.:15:58.

the left. There is more consensus that there was prior to the

:15:58.:16:01.

economic crash. Everybody loved the banks before and now everybody

:16:01.:16:06.

hates them. What is the evidence the centre has moved to the left?

:16:06.:16:10.

People are more willing to consider changes and different policies than

:16:10.:16:15.

is the case in the past, because we can see the impact of the crash, we

:16:15.:16:19.

understand what caused it, and increasingly, they look at the

:16:19.:16:22.

policies of the coalition and think they are profound in way --

:16:22.:16:27.

profoundly unfair. Why are people facing an increase in council tax

:16:27.:16:32.

bills where there is a council tax freeze? The Government is hitting

:16:32.:16:37.

those on lowest income. I would suggest to you that in a whole

:16:37.:16:41.

range of issues, immigration, welfare reform, deficit-reduction,

:16:41.:16:45.

the country is moving to the right on these issues, and it makes

:16:45.:16:48.

Labour look increasingly out of touch, and that is why your ratings

:16:48.:16:54.

or poor. It depends on your definition of left and right and it

:16:54.:16:58.

might not be the same as mine. If we take welfare reform, we are

:16:58.:17:02.

putting forward a proposal that would say very clearly, if you have

:17:02.:17:06.

been out of work for more than two years, we will provide you with the

:17:06.:17:12.

job. That is the responsibility of the state to care for people, and

:17:12.:17:16.

in return you need to do it. Many people said that was too right-wing,

:17:16.:17:21.

now you say it. Things are moving to the right, not the left. It is

:17:22.:17:26.

sensible for the economic times in which we live. I will let the

:17:26.:17:30.

viewers decide that. Many of your former colleagues in government,

:17:30.:17:34.

Tony Blair, David Blunkett, they discerned no mood of the public

:17:34.:17:39.

towards the left. This is what John Reid said, I do not think the

:17:39.:17:46.

central ground is moving left. Are they wrong? I have read the

:17:46.:17:50.

articles that Tony Blair and David Blunkett wrote, and I can find

:17:50.:17:55.

nothing controversial to disagree with him what they said. You just

:17:55.:18:01.

disagreed with that. He says it is not moving. It depends on your

:18:01.:18:06.

definition of left and right. People are willing to support

:18:06.:18:10.

changes that they might not have been willing to support in the past

:18:10.:18:14.

because the circumstances are different. The centre ground may

:18:14.:18:18.

not be moving to the left, I believe that a Labour to argue

:18:18.:18:24.

about, but you party seems to be moving to the left. We have heard

:18:24.:18:28.

of what one Labour person called an old fashioned stitch-up by the

:18:28.:18:34.

unions. People resigning because of it. Candidates who fought and did

:18:34.:18:39.

well retired by the union barons. Are you happy with how the seats

:18:39.:18:46.

have been selected? Things can get agitated. The truth is, unions do

:18:46.:18:51.

not have a majority on the panels that are short listed, and as I'm

:18:51.:18:56.

sure you're aware, the choice of where people are put on the list,

:18:56.:19:01.

that choice is made by ordinary party members voting in a ballot.

:19:01.:19:06.

The former Labour general secretary says it was a stitch-up. I do not

:19:06.:19:13.

agree with that. It was the same process we used in previous years.

:19:13.:19:19.

Another candidate who almost one in 2009 was pushed out of the way to

:19:19.:19:24.

make place for a union official. was not on the panel and neither

:19:24.:19:27.

were you. They made their judgment but it is party members who make

:19:27.:19:32.

the decision. She was told the decision to exclude her was a

:19:32.:19:38.

political judgment. I do not know who said that. The panel's

:19:38.:19:42.

shortlist and the members decide where the people go on the list. It

:19:42.:19:46.

is the same system we have used before. George Osborne published

:19:46.:19:55.

the coalition spending plans for 2015 on June 26th. They will cover

:19:55.:20:00.

the first year for you. When will you tell us if you accept these

:20:00.:20:05.

plans or change them? We have always said we will announce our

:20:05.:20:10.

plans in the run-up to the election. Clearly, we will need to see what

:20:10.:20:15.

his spending plans are. It is two years away. It is not sensible to

:20:15.:20:19.

set out categorically what we intend to do, because look at the

:20:19.:20:23.

change that has taken place over the last three years. If we did

:20:23.:20:28.

make decisions on the basis of George Osborne's plans in 2010, it

:20:28.:20:31.

would have not been relevant for the current circumstances because

:20:31.:20:36.

of the failure of his economic policy. You will have all the

:20:36.:20:41.

information the government has to make its spending forecast, because

:20:41.:20:46.

it will be published. You get to see it. Why can you tell us based

:20:46.:20:52.

on the assumptions and forecast, this would be the spending plan?

:20:52.:20:59.

The government has done it. have partly done it yourself,

:20:59.:21:04.

answered the question, you said the forecast may be wrong. They have

:21:04.:21:10.

been downgraded time after time. The sensible moment to make a

:21:10.:21:13.

decision about what our commitments are going to be and how we will pay

:21:13.:21:17.

for them will be in the run-up to the election and not now.

:21:17.:21:20.

government will tell us in June, you will not tell us until 20th

:21:20.:21:27.

April 15. We will make it a where - - make it available in a sensible

:21:27.:21:30.

time during the run-up to the election. Nobody can tell what the

:21:31.:21:35.

economy will be like in two years time. You can make forecasts based

:21:35.:21:39.

on certain assumptions and the forecast would change if the

:21:39.:21:46.

assumptions changed. You said these are the biggest Cup being imposed

:21:47.:21:53.

on the most deprived communities. Will you be reversing these?

:21:53.:21:57.

will redistribute it in a fairer way. It is not right that David

:21:57.:22:00.

Cameron's local-authority is getting an increase in spending

:22:00.:22:05.

power this year per head of population, and some of the most

:22:05.:22:09.

deprived communities are getting a substantial reduction. It is about

:22:09.:22:14.

fairness in the way the money is shared out. The overall level of

:22:14.:22:19.

reductions will stay the same? not saying anything about the level

:22:19.:22:22.

of investment because that depends on circumstances, but we would be

:22:23.:22:28.

distributing the money available in a much fairer way, because you

:22:28.:22:31.

cannot justify the biggest cuts falling on the most deprived

:22:31.:22:41.
:22:41.:22:44.

communities. You claim council tax increases will harm the poorest

:22:44.:22:50.

people? They will, it is not sensible to do that just now, it is

:22:50.:22:54.

wrong that people were are disabled, single mothers, carers, are being

:22:54.:22:59.

hit. The same is true with the bedroom tax. If you ask me about

:22:59.:23:03.

the bedroom tax, I do not think it will be in the current form it

:23:03.:23:07.

takes by the time of the next election because it will not

:23:07.:23:12.

withstand contact with reality. Will you commit to reverse it?

:23:12.:23:17.

set out what we want to do during the next election. You will not

:23:17.:23:22.

tell me what individual policies will be, Ed Miliband says this will

:23:22.:23:27.

be a change election, in other words, a watershed. Give me two

:23:27.:23:33.

ways in which it will be a watershed. Our proposal to build

:23:33.:23:38.

100,000 new affordable homes. We have the lowest rate of completion

:23:38.:23:45.

since the mid- 1920s. Houses are down 11%. We will make funding

:23:45.:23:53.

available for an increase in house building. I have called on the

:23:53.:23:58.

government to use the proceeds from the recent auction for that. In

:23:58.:24:05.

what parts are they being built? It is where Labour Party councils are

:24:05.:24:13.

in control. Give me another watershed. Two million more homes,

:24:13.:24:18.

of which 500,000 are affordable, that is a much better record than

:24:18.:24:22.

the coalition government. The second watershed is the jobs

:24:22.:24:27.

guarantee, and the third is repeating the bankers bonus tax to

:24:27.:24:32.

help 100,000 young people. Long- term youth unemployment is going up.

:24:32.:24:37.

Many people regard these his policies but not watershed policies.

:24:37.:24:41.

If you do not have a job and Durer young person that will be pretty

:24:41.:24:45.

important. The government has always promised more jobs,

:24:45.:24:49.

delivering is another matter. Last time you for these elections you

:24:49.:24:55.

lost 300 seats. It was terrible for you. James Purnell was writing his

:24:55.:24:59.

resignation letter, Gordon Brown was unpopular, the economy was in

:24:59.:25:05.

recession. You need to win back the 300 seats for this to be a success.

:25:05.:25:09.

Agreed? I'm not going to make a prediction about that but you're

:25:09.:25:14.

right, these elections were very bad for Labour. But these are

:25:14.:25:18.

predominantly in Tory heartlands, because they are county councils.

:25:18.:25:21.

We will be fighting to win control of councils all over the country

:25:21.:25:26.

but I'm not going to predict what debt will be. You cannot win these

:25:26.:25:36.

300 seats, and claimed it is a great result. We are fighting to

:25:36.:25:41.

win seats across the country and I think we will undoubtedly see

:25:41.:25:51.
:25:51.:25:51.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 71 seconds

:25:51.:27:02.

improvements on what was a very bad In the shadow of President Assad,

:27:02.:27:06.

they're still playing football in the capital Damascus. But the

:27:06.:27:10.

fighting goes on. Two years of civil war have left 70,000 Syrians

:27:10.:27:16.

dead. More than a million have fled to refugee camps in other countries,

:27:16.:27:26.

millions more are displaced within So what's the British position?

:27:26.:27:29.

We've even sent the Prime Minister's wife and the royal

:27:29.:27:32.

family to the region to show that this is something Britain cares

:27:32.:27:41.

about. Here at the Foreign Office they had hoped that Assad would be

:27:41.:27:44.

toppled quickly or stand down. Since that hasn't happened there's

:27:44.:27:47.

been a gradual ramping up of British government support for the

:27:47.:27:51.

opposition. Here's the Foreign Secretary last year. Her Majesty's

:27:51.:27:53.

Government have decided to recognise the National Coalition of

:27:53.:27:55.

Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as the sole legitimate

:27:55.:28:04.

representative of the Syrian people. Last Month: We will also provide

:28:04.:28:08.

new types of non-lethal equipment for the protection of civilians,

:28:08.:28:13.

going beyond what we have given before. We have taken no decision

:28:13.:28:17.

that we would like to send arms to the Syrian opposition, but the UK

:28:17.:28:22.

and France argue we will need further amendments to the arms

:28:22.:28:31.

embargo. In other words - sending weapons to the rebels. But who

:28:31.:28:34.

actually are the rebels? You have various factions who can just about

:28:34.:28:37.

agree that they want Assad to step down. Rosemary Hollis has studied

:28:37.:28:40.

the region for decades. You have the Islamists, the various factions

:28:40.:28:42.

including the Nusra front, the various Al-Qaeda types from

:28:42.:28:45.

overseas, including Iraqis who were trained in the Iraqi context,

:28:45.:28:55.
:28:55.:28:59.

Chechens in the mix, those from the This is another phase in a story

:28:59.:29:07.

that originates in Afghanistan in the 1980s. There are more moderate

:29:07.:29:09.

elements though, who are meeting the Foreign Secretary in Istanbul

:29:09.:29:13.

this weekend. But they can't do anything without the support of

:29:13.:29:16.

other countries like the US, China and Russia who are nowhere near

:29:16.:29:26.
:29:26.:29:30.

agreement on how to end the Alan Mendoza runs the Henry Jackson

:29:30.:29:34.

Society, think-tank which promotes Western in that vet -- Western

:29:34.:29:44.
:29:44.:29:52.

arms embargo? It is obvious that in action has caused more problems than

:29:52.:29:57.

action. There is a humanitarian tragedy going on right now in

:29:58.:30:02.

Syria. More people have been killed in recent months than in the first

:30:02.:30:06.

year of the conflict. We want to see a managed transition in Syria, but

:30:06.:30:12.

there is no sign of that happening. We have to change the terms of trade

:30:12.:30:22.
:30:22.:30:26.

We have to change the terms of trade on the ground. It started with a

:30:26.:30:29.

peaceful demonstration in the street peaceful demonstration in the street

:30:29.:30:39.
:30:39.:30:45.

It moved on and now we are involved in more Islamists. They have given

:30:45.:30:55.
:30:55.:30:56.

support. This creates a division. Are you worried about giving them

:30:56.:31:04.

guns? Of course, they have been planning to gain sympathy and

:31:04.:31:11.

support from the Syrian people, because they appeared a few months

:31:11.:31:16.

ago and they are giving up to al- Qaeda. You will end up giving guns

:31:16.:31:26.
:31:26.:31:34.

to the bad guys. Not necessarily. fighting on the ground, the people

:31:34.:31:39.

with more arms are the Islamists. They are going to win if we do

:31:39.:31:45.

nothing. What we need to do is to get the moderate, secular side to

:31:45.:31:49.

have forced to actually counterbalance that. You think, in

:31:49.:31:54.

sending arms to the opposition, you could actually distinguish as to who

:31:54.:32:01.

is going to get the guns? Absolutely. You cannot do that. It

:32:01.:32:07.

is not practical on the ground. You would create isolation between the

:32:07.:32:12.

rebels, because the bad guys think of themselves as the good guys, who

:32:12.:32:16.

are liberating Syria from the dictatorship. By arming the rebels

:32:16.:32:21.

in Syria, you are creating a revolution, a kind of battle between

:32:21.:32:27.

the Islamists and between the Syrian free army. We have three poll is of

:32:27.:32:33.

the conflict, and political solution is the only way to move forward.

:32:33.:32:40.

do we get that? Through pressure on Assad. Not through the pressure of

:32:40.:32:49.

Russia and Iran. Assad is not the supermassive power in Syria.

:32:49.:32:53.

cannot get Russia to do any pressuring. They are bolstering the

:32:53.:33:00.

Iranians. It will end up with terrorism in Syria. Even if Al-Qaeda

:33:00.:33:08.

has lost its war with America, it can regain in Syria. You say 70,000

:33:08.:33:13.

people have died there, and that is probably a reasonably accurate

:33:13.:33:19.

estimate. If you give these people guns, and more than guns, a lot more

:33:19.:33:25.

will die. They've got guns already. Syria is awash with small arms

:33:25.:33:31.

already. The problem is we cannot force Assad to a political

:33:31.:33:36.

transition. Nobody wants to see a violent overthrow, but it is

:33:36.:33:41.

happening in slow motion right now, because he has enough power to hang

:33:41.:33:45.

on without being forced to the negotiation table. We have to bring

:33:45.:33:50.

the moderate and secular forces there, because that is the only

:33:50.:33:55.

guarantee you can get pressure on Russia, Iran and Hezbollah to change

:33:55.:33:59.

their mind. He says you have to do it to break the logjam on the

:33:59.:34:07.

ground. But that is not through getting more debt in Syria. Syria

:34:07.:34:13.

can use chemical weapons in order to gain power right now. It knows it

:34:13.:34:18.

will get the full power of the United States if it did that.

:34:18.:34:28.

solution is to pressure Iran and Russia and Hezbollah. We need to

:34:28.:34:33.

pressure more, more pressure from the superpowers like America,

:34:33.:34:40.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The situation could escalate more, to

:34:40.:34:46.

have a more regional war in Syria, where we have vulnerable borders,

:34:46.:34:51.

which can leak to Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. Then we have an

:34:51.:34:58.

international war in the region. Syria is a tribal mosaic. It is a

:34:58.:35:03.

hotchpotch of tribes that we understand almost none of. What has

:35:03.:35:11.

it got to do with us? Plenty -- plenty. Firstly, there is a

:35:11.:35:16.

challenge to values going on. Tens of thousands of people are dying,

:35:16.:35:25.

and that speaks to our values. you are talking about hard power.

:35:25.:35:30.

Those are national security situations of a classic kind. Now we

:35:30.:35:36.

have moral interests and strategic interests too. We are seeing

:35:36.:35:39.

refugees streaming over, destabilising Jordan, Iraq and

:35:39.:35:46.

Lebanon. It is in our interests to stop that happening. Thank you both.

:35:46.:35:50.

You are watching the Sunday Politics. Coming up, I will be

:35:50.:35:54.

looking at the week ahead with our political panel. Until then, the

:35:54.:36:04.
:36:04.:36:13.

idea how much London councils are owed in unpaid charges and tax? �800

:36:13.:36:19.

million is how much. More on that later. Here to discuss that and who

:36:19.:36:25.

knows what else, Heidi Alexander, MP for Lewisham East, and Greg Hands,

:36:25.:36:30.

Conservative MP for Chelsea and Fulham. We were reminded this week

:36:30.:36:34.

that there is caste discrimination in London. There was a big

:36:34.:36:38.

demonstration in London against the practice. The prejudice shown,

:36:38.:36:43.

especially in the workplace among some communities, seek, Hindu and

:36:43.:36:53.
:36:53.:36:55.

Muslim for example. Do you agree with that, break? It has been

:36:55.:36:59.

considered. We had a short debate in the House of Commons this week. It

:36:59.:37:05.

is something that needs to be studied. There is not a consensus

:37:05.:37:09.

within the communities themselves, let alone within the wider

:37:09.:37:11.

community. It was rejected this week in the

:37:11.:37:18.

vote, and you voted against including it. I did. All forms of

:37:18.:37:22.

discrimination need to be taken seriously and to be tackled. I'm

:37:22.:37:27.

sure further studies will be done. So you might accept the principle of

:37:27.:37:32.

it being included in legislation at some stage, or do you see any reason

:37:32.:37:37.

for it? It is possible it might be accepted, but it is something we

:37:37.:37:43.

should not rush into at this point, and to really examine the pros and

:37:43.:37:47.

cons of this issue. There is not a consensus within those communities

:37:47.:37:49.

themselves as to whether this is something that should be tackled

:37:49.:37:56.

head-on through legislation. One of the reasons for that is that some

:37:56.:38:00.

people say it might stigmatise and make the problem worse. Yet you

:38:00.:38:06.

think it should be part of this legislation. It should be illegal to

:38:06.:38:12.

discriminate on a caste basis. did vote for the principle of having

:38:12.:38:17.

legislative underpinning on racial prejudice on the grounds of caste.

:38:17.:38:22.

While it is a relatively small problem, and one which is rejected

:38:22.:38:32.

by the Hindu and Sikh faith, I think Greg and I would agree that there is

:38:32.:38:40.

no place for any prejudice of any kind in our society. It may be a

:38:40.:38:43.

lessening problem as cultures develop. Is the government right

:38:43.:38:48.

that we can address this with education, and we do not need to go

:38:48.:38:53.

down the legislative route? If you talk to anyone who has been subject

:38:53.:38:59.

to discrimination on the basis of caste... And we have spoken to

:38:59.:39:03.

people who have had quite traumatic experiences, then I think in British

:39:03.:39:07.

society there isn't a place for that, and it is right that there is

:39:07.:39:11.

some sort of legal protection. We have to look at the definition of

:39:11.:39:21.
:39:21.:39:25.

caste, we have to look at how this works in practice. I think there are

:39:25.:39:27.

still discussions ongoing at the moment, but it is an important issue

:39:27.:39:30.

that needs to be tackled. Many of the things that have been described

:39:30.:39:34.

may be covered under racial legislation. It is a question of

:39:34.:39:37.

whether legislation is necessarily the right and only solution to this

:39:37.:39:43.

problem. There are lot of forms of prejudice out there in this world,

:39:43.:39:48.

and not all of them are covered by legislation and by the force of

:39:48.:39:53.

law. Thank you. We often report on the tough times

:39:53.:39:57.

faced by London councils. They're spending pressures and difficult

:39:57.:40:00.

choices. Are they getting their hands on all the money they could

:40:00.:40:06.

be? It's a merge that authorities in the capital are owed �800 million in

:40:06.:40:16.
:40:16.:40:21.

council tax than the residents of any other part of the country, and

:40:21.:40:27.

in some borough is one in ten do not pay. Hundreds of millions is missing

:40:27.:40:31.

from our town Hall. Sunday politics decided to find out just how much

:40:31.:40:38.

debt our local authorities had. Across the capital, there's a �640

:40:38.:40:43.

million outstanding, and in addition, we have discovered at

:40:43.:40:48.

least �170 million extra from unpaid business accounts, rent and other

:40:48.:40:56.

sources. That makes over �810 million. To put all that in

:40:56.:41:01.

perspective, the total government cuts to councils in London this year

:41:01.:41:05.

are �157 million. We are talking about money which is much more than

:41:05.:41:10.

the government cuts we hear so much about. The signs are that this year,

:41:10.:41:16.

the money will be even harder to collect. The council tax benefit

:41:16.:41:22.

reforms, which mean that from 2013 onwards, tiny amounts of money will

:41:22.:41:26.

be collected from a large number of households who previously paid

:41:26.:41:31.

nothing. It will inevitably lead to higher rates than we have seen

:41:31.:41:35.

before, and action against more households than before. So we will

:41:35.:41:40.

see an uptake in the overall level of Korea's year next. According to

:41:40.:41:47.

the government, there is no excuse. If you have �650 million owed to

:41:47.:41:53.

you, you have a duty to collect that tax, so you keep bills down next

:41:53.:41:57.

year. Local authorities will find it easier to manage their finances if

:41:57.:42:02.

they do the right things to collect the money they are owed, and do not

:42:02.:42:12.
:42:12.:42:15.

put that Bill on other hard-working be that councils are overzealous in

:42:15.:42:20.

their pursuit of the missing money? According to one charity who helps

:42:20.:42:24.

the public with money problems, the number of calls they get about debts

:42:24.:42:29.

to local authorities is rising, and councils' methods may be

:42:29.:42:35.

counter-productive. The use of Bayliss is one example. That will

:42:35.:42:41.

often ratchet up debt quite quickly. Somebody might be saved -- served

:42:41.:42:47.

with a parking fine, but quite quickly found that the Bayliss

:42:47.:42:52.

charges make that higher. It is then impossible for them to pay it.

:42:52.:42:59.

Things like that set the chances of the person paying that debt. In the

:42:59.:43:04.

last year, celebrities, corporations and even the BBC faced criticism

:43:04.:43:11.

over their tax arrangements. Some might want that attention to turn to

:43:11.:43:16.

the revenue of ordinary taxpayers. Simon Parker is here from the New

:43:16.:43:22.

Local Government Network. Why is so much underpaid? It is difficult to

:43:22.:43:27.

put it into context. This is an awful lot of money at a time when we

:43:27.:43:32.

are asking council taxpayers to pay more. It is important councils

:43:32.:43:36.

collect as much as possible. The figures here are gigantic, but they

:43:36.:43:42.

have been around for a long time. It is 20 years worth of arrears. We

:43:42.:43:45.

should not get too excited about getting that money back, because it

:43:45.:43:52.

is old debt. In the 1990s, some councils were abominable at

:43:52.:43:57.

collection rates. Now, most councils are in the high 90s, but no one ever

:43:57.:44:06.

gets all of it. How worth it is it, in the end? Presumably you have to

:44:06.:44:13.

put a lot of effort into chasing. There is a difficult balance for

:44:13.:44:17.

councils to strike. In some cases, it can cost almost as much as the

:44:17.:44:23.

debt to get it. On the other hand, it is really important for councils

:44:23.:44:28.

that they do not send a message that it is worth giving it a try. They

:44:28.:44:32.

have to try and enforce it, because the principle is clear. If you owe

:44:32.:44:40.

it, you should pay it. How'd you get away without paying it? You are

:44:40.:44:45.

there registered against an address. The bill arrives. Often, you are not

:44:45.:44:49.

registered against an address. In parts of London where they have the

:44:49.:44:54.

lowest collection rates, they have transient populations. People don't

:44:54.:44:59.

stay in properties for a long time. Even if they did register, they

:44:59.:45:03.

perhaps register and then leave, and then they are hard to chase.

:45:04.:45:09.

Exactly. If you can't find someone, it is hard to make them pay. Given

:45:09.:45:17.

that, we heard in the report that it is hard to address and these are

:45:18.:45:23.

huge sums of money. Perfectly understandable? Under Labour,

:45:23.:45:27.

council taxes doubled. The amount spent on council tax benefit

:45:27.:45:32.

doubles. If tax rates are as high as that, then arrears will start to

:45:32.:45:37.

rise. Councils like mine, Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington

:45:37.:45:45.

and Chelsea, have got two of the lowest. Hammersmith and Fulham has

:45:45.:45:51.

cut its council tax by 3%, and that helps people to afford their council

:45:51.:45:59.

Is their correlation between the size of the council tax and how few

:45:59.:46:03.

people pay it? We do not have the data. I meant to look at it before

:46:04.:46:09.

I came on. If you look at the figures, it looks like it will be

:46:09.:46:17.

more collected in wealthier areas. The picture is messy. Somewhere

:46:17.:46:23.

like Lewisham is higher, relatively speaking. We hear Hammersmith, once

:46:23.:46:29.

worth, so on. Is that problem? also have a more deprived community

:46:29.:46:34.

in Lewisham than we do in places like Chelsea or Fulham. Lewisham

:46:34.:46:39.

collect about 96% of its council tax. It could be better, it could

:46:39.:46:44.

do more. It does take quite robust action against people who do not

:46:44.:46:54.
:46:54.:46:54.

pay. Last year, the issue 29,000 summonses, and they took action

:46:54.:46:58.

against a number of households. There are differences between

:46:58.:47:03.

people, some people who cannot pay, there are big issues going forward

:47:03.:47:07.

with the impact upon the reforms to council tax benefits, with the

:47:08.:47:14.

amount of money has been cut by 10%. In Lewisham, 24,000 people have

:47:14.:47:21.

received a council tax bill as a result of the changes.

:47:21.:47:26.

implications of benefit changes and localising council tax, a number of

:47:26.:47:30.

people or a lot more, how many people will be paying council tax

:47:30.:47:40.

who were not before? For London 75,000 in London. There are already

:47:40.:47:44.

signs that the people there are least able to pay will not be

:47:44.:47:51.

paying. The council will find it very difficult to find that money.

:47:51.:47:54.

Particularly well administered councils, they are finding savings

:47:54.:47:59.

elsewhere. The idea that government said we want to cut the amount we

:47:59.:48:03.

pay you in your total council tax benefit by 10% but leaving it up to

:48:03.:48:08.

the council, those councils have actually chosen to make savings

:48:08.:48:13.

elsewhere. These were individuals who never had to pay before.

:48:13.:48:19.

Naturally, they will find it difficult. A lot is down to that

:48:19.:48:23.

individual local council as to how they decide to pass on the changes.

:48:23.:48:28.

At a heart of this is Britain's benefits bill, which Labour have

:48:28.:48:35.

consistently voted against, all the savings, these benefits, under the

:48:35.:48:37.

last government the benefits bill overall was higher than what we are

:48:37.:48:41.

spending on health, schools, and defence put together. The

:48:41.:48:45.

Government needed to take action on the overall benefits bill. Every

:48:45.:48:52.

single one of these changes has been opposed by Labour. Let's be

:48:52.:48:56.

clear about what the government are doing in respect to benefit changes,

:48:56.:49:03.

it is the bedroom tax, the total cap on benefits, there is a

:49:03.:49:07.

cumulative impact on households in London which is going to make it

:49:07.:49:12.

really difficult for some households to pay their bills.

:49:12.:49:17.

Anything obvious or knew that local authorities can do here? I'm not

:49:17.:49:21.

sure there is. We have been trying to collect tax for a long time so

:49:21.:49:24.

we know how it is done, the difficult choice will be between

:49:24.:49:27.

letting some of the school and cracking down on it. When we look

:49:28.:49:32.

at these figures, people are going into arrears and getting visits

:49:32.:49:39.

from the bailiffs. On that gloomy note, thank you. Could soon become

:49:39.:49:44.

easier for you to knock up that much wanted Conservatory in your

:49:44.:49:48.

back garden. A much bigger one than you expected as well. Government

:49:48.:49:51.

plans relaxing planning rules survive the Commons will this week.

:49:51.:49:59.

There might be compromise or a climbdown in the air. Ministers

:49:59.:50:04.

announced plans for a three-year relaxation in building laws,

:50:04.:50:13.

allowing expansions on houses to be up from 16 ft to 26 beat. Critics

:50:13.:50:20.

fear the relaxation will lead to disputes among us neighbours and

:50:20.:50:28.

unsightly extensions. The narrow victory highlighted real concerns.

:50:28.:50:35.

Eric Pickles is now wanting to find a compromise. This new approach

:50:35.:50:43.

will be set out in the House of Lords. Bob Blackman has joined us,

:50:43.:50:50.

Conservative MP. You do not like these proposals, narrowly lost. You

:50:50.:50:57.

were going to meet and make a compromise? Obviously discussions

:50:57.:51:03.

were going on, the conversation of doubling the amount of Permitted

:51:03.:51:06.

Development closed last Christmas and we have been waiting for the

:51:07.:51:10.

Government to come forward with the results of that consultation and

:51:10.:51:14.

what they propose to do. This debate was about local authorities,

:51:14.:51:17.

should they be allowed to opt out of whatever the Government came up

:51:17.:51:27.
:51:27.:51:29.

with? I take the view that this approach, London should be allowed

:51:29.:51:34.

to set their own standards, because here we sit in the suburbs and

:51:34.:51:40.

urban London, cheek by jowl, if somebody wants to do an extension

:51:40.:51:43.

on their property, which would be very welcome for them, they will

:51:44.:51:46.

affect properties either side and at the back of them. Those people

:51:46.:51:51.

need to have the opportunity to object to these proposals.

:51:52.:51:56.

saying you want an opt-out, are you saying there is no point in this

:51:56.:52:01.

change? Clearly there is a point across the country, there are areas

:52:01.:52:06.

where this will not affect you at all. If you live in a rural area,

:52:06.:52:10.

why shouldn't you extend your home to as much as you want? Here in

:52:10.:52:16.

suburban areas, you will have a dramatic effect. Imagine waking up

:52:16.:52:20.

the day after somebody starts building up 26 ft extension in the

:52:20.:52:27.

garden without you even knowing. Imagine that, Greg Hands, your

:52:27.:52:33.

current neighbours may or may not be watching, if you walk up and

:52:33.:52:38.

decided to put a 20 ft extension, how would your neighbour's field?

:52:38.:52:44.

And not sure there is 26 ft available in my road. The objective

:52:44.:52:50.

here is to make it easier for people to extend their home. It is

:52:50.:52:59.

part of the housing shortage. In terms of the particular us, we are

:52:59.:53:04.

listening carefully. What made his points very eloquently last week,

:53:04.:53:09.

we are listening to him and others. -- Bob Blackman. We will come back

:53:09.:53:13.

next week with a revised proposal in the House of Lords. Until then

:53:13.:53:19.

we will wait to see what that is. Will this get the building industry

:53:19.:53:24.

going again? We need more homes across the country. The key thing

:53:24.:53:28.

is London councils are very effective at processing planning

:53:28.:53:33.

applications for extensions. Et 7% go through within eight weeks. The

:53:33.:53:41.

13% refused, people do not want. -- 87%. What is not to like about that

:53:41.:53:45.

information? We will have to wait and see. Next week we will see

:53:45.:53:51.

precisely how to respond, how ministers respond, but I am very

:53:51.:54:01.
:54:01.:54:04.

confident. Where do you stand? What you say as a Londoner? I feel the

:54:04.:54:08.

current planning system, and I have served as a local councillor for

:54:09.:54:15.

eight years, is too restrictive. It needs to be liberalised somewhat.

:54:15.:54:19.

Planning is always a question of compromise is, between the person

:54:19.:54:24.

making the application and the people nearby. It is about getting

:54:24.:54:31.

that balance right. Would you be happy to see at 20 ft extension in

:54:32.:54:39.

the house next door to you? I do not live in a conservation area, so

:54:39.:54:46.

it could happen. Would you be happy? I do not think you could.

:54:46.:54:51.

However far you could go, 15 ft, cover the whole garden. As with all

:54:51.:54:57.

these things the Iraqi considerations, any extension,

:54:57.:55:04.

whether it cuts out light, implications. We know these

:55:04.:55:10.

considerations, everyone feels them. Planning is always a balance of

:55:10.:55:15.

these considerations, where do you have that balance? Is that balance

:55:15.:55:21.

in the right point? That question will be down next week. These

:55:21.:55:25.

changes give the householder the power to make that decision about

:55:25.:55:30.

the balance. They take it away from an independent third party, the

:55:30.:55:34.

authority, and they say it is a householder who can choose whether

:55:34.:55:39.

that development is appropriate, and it takes the say away from the

:55:39.:55:43.

people who live next door. It is deeply ironic that this government

:55:43.:55:47.

say they want to give more power to local communities to have a say in

:55:47.:55:50.

what happens in their neighbourhood and they are changing the planning

:55:50.:55:54.

rules in such a way that are going to cause huge attention in

:55:54.:56:04.
:56:04.:56:05.

communities. Are you in a better place? Yes, we got a pledge that a

:56:05.:56:08.

compromise arrangement will be tabled in the House of Lords on

:56:08.:56:12.

Monday. Obviously it will come back to the House of Commons for a

:56:12.:56:16.

decision. Lots of MPs on the conservative side said we will

:56:16.:56:21.

accept what the Government have said, and gave the Government the

:56:21.:56:28.

benefit of the doubt. -- the Conservative side. We want to make

:56:28.:56:35.

sure the compromise arrangement works for everyone. We need to move

:56:35.:56:45.
:56:45.:56:46.

on. Thank you. Now the rest of the A report by the Conservatives on

:56:46.:56:49.

the London assembly called for tube workers to be banned from going on

:56:50.:56:54.

strike. They are suggesting a mediation process overseen by an

:56:54.:56:58.

independent judge, but unions say this will be doomed to failure. The

:56:58.:57:03.

home of British skateboarding since the 1970s is set to close after

:57:03.:57:07.

plans to redevelop the Southbank Centre. An alternative site is

:57:07.:57:11.

being offered but users what the cultural significance to be

:57:11.:57:21.
:57:21.:57:26.

respected and for it to be saved. How would you like to builds and

:57:26.:57:36.
:57:36.:57:40.

the Olympic Park. People will be losing out on benefit changes, the

:57:40.:57:43.

opposition say the money will be better spent creating permanent

:57:43.:57:53.
:57:53.:57:56.

At Conservative group pushing on this, wanting to change the loss on

:57:56.:58:05.

strikes. In general, London tube strikes happen far too often for

:58:05.:58:15.
:58:15.:58:16.

trivial reasons. It is a complete abuse. A lot of it will be up to

:58:16.:58:23.

Boris in terms of how he handles it. More of my constituents travel by

:58:23.:58:32.

chewed their end any other constituency in the country. It can

:58:32.:58:42.
:58:42.:58:45.

be quite difficult. Do you support this? I think this is another rash

:58:45.:58:53.

policy. I think they are difficult unions, hard work needs to going to

:58:53.:59:03.
:59:03.:59:07.

engaging with them. Back to you. In a moment we will look ahead to the

:59:07.:59:14.

big stories that will dominate next week but first the news. Runners

:59:14.:59:18.

taking part in the London Marathon stood in silence to remember the

:59:18.:59:22.

victims of the Boston bombings last Monday. Thousands of people lined

:59:22.:59:31.

the route after security was tightened in response. It was a day

:59:31.:59:36.

for London but also for Boston. Many runners wore black ribbons,

:59:36.:59:46.
:59:46.:59:50.

all experienced tighter security. Despite the week's events, the

:59:50.:59:55.

crowd emerged in their thousands to chew on the runners. Mo Farah ran

:59:55.:00:00.

the first path before dropping out. The spirit of the day was summed up

:00:00.:00:07.

by another athlete, Tatyana McFadden, who won the event in

:00:07.:00:14.

Boston just ours before the bombing. They were in my heart for the whole

:00:14.:00:20.

weekend. I dedicate this win to Boston. Remembering those affected

:00:20.:00:25.

by it. David Weir could only finish 5th in the men's wheelchair event.

:00:25.:00:33.

Victory in the elite races was won by an Ethiopian. The faults were

:00:34.:00:42.

It will never get any body down here. The great thing about the

:00:42.:00:46.

marathon is no matter what colour you are, religion, nationality,

:00:47.:00:52.

everyone comes together. For every runner that crosses the finish line,

:00:52.:00:56.

the organisers are donating �2 to the Boston fund, raising thousands

:00:56.:01:01.

and thousands in the process. Many runners are still out on the course.

:01:01.:01:11.
:01:11.:01:17.

to question the teenager who is thought to have carried out the

:01:17.:01:23.

bombing. These pictures show Dzhokhar Tsarnaev hiding in a boat,

:01:23.:01:29.

shortly before the exchange of gunfire that led to his arrest. He

:01:29.:01:33.

remains under armed guard in hospital.

:01:33.:01:37.

More than 200 people are known to be dead or missing after yesterday's

:01:37.:01:44.

earthquake in China. Thousands of people have been injured. Rescue

:01:44.:01:48.

workers have been searching remote villages for survivors.

:01:48.:01:53.

Celtic have been crowned Scottish Premier League champions after they

:01:53.:01:57.

beat Inverness at Celtic Park. Celtic needed only a point to retain

:01:57.:02:04.

the title in front of their home fans, but they ended up winning 4-1.

:02:04.:02:11.

That is all the news for now. More news on BBC One just after 6:30pm.

:02:11.:02:20.

For now, back to Andrew. Britain has already lost its AAA. Is

:02:20.:02:25.

it now going for the triple dip? A row over whether a separate Scotland

:02:25.:02:30.

could keep the pound, and trade unions are considering holding a

:02:30.:02:35.

general strike. All up for discussion in the week ahead.

:02:35.:02:40.

On Thursday, we are going to get the growth figures for the first quarter

:02:40.:02:44.

of this year. That's when we will see whether the growth has been so

:02:44.:02:50.

weak, or whether there is no growth at all that we are technically into

:02:50.:02:57.

another recession, almost a triple dip reception. -- recession. Then

:02:57.:03:01.

there is that warning that the Chancellor had from the head of the

:03:01.:03:07.

IMF, Christine Lagarde. Should growth be particularly low, then

:03:07.:03:11.

there should be consideration to adjusting, by way of slowing the

:03:11.:03:19.

pace. So the politicians always use the IMF when it agrees with them,

:03:19.:03:23.

and they attack the IMF when it disagrees with them. Does the IMF

:03:23.:03:28.

matter in terms of the politics of our economic debate? What would

:03:28.:03:32.

really matter in terms of the politics is if we do go into triple

:03:32.:03:37.

dip recession this week. It is a presentational issue. Either way, it

:03:37.:03:43.

sounds like growth is going to be very weak. Politically, a triple dip

:03:43.:03:48.

would be an extraordinary blow for the Chancellor, and it has been one

:03:48.:03:54.

thing after another this week, with the unemployment figures - which are

:03:54.:04:00.

quite a shock - and then the credit rating again. There is no way this

:04:00.:04:06.

economic news is getting better. You asked us to make predictions for

:04:06.:04:12.

2013, one of which was the overall GDP growth for this year. All of us

:04:12.:04:17.

said less and 1%, and it looks like, on Thursday, we will be on

:04:17.:04:24.

course for something under 1% for the whole year. If there is growth,

:04:24.:04:31.

it will be anaemic. It is easy to predict growth, because you just

:04:31.:04:34.

take the OBR figures and then subtract a couple of percentage

:04:35.:04:42.

points! The IMF really matters for George Osborne, because Christine

:04:42.:04:47.

Lagarde was his big friend. When Dominic Strauss Kahn had to resign,

:04:47.:04:54.

he was on the phone in seconds saying that it should be her. George

:04:54.:04:58.

Osborne says that the dynamics of the IMF have changed, because

:04:58.:05:07.

Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist... Is he French?He is.

:05:07.:05:13.

The number two in the IMF would take a more Keynesian approach. The lack

:05:13.:05:19.

of support from the guard is a real change in the dynamics. -- from

:05:19.:05:25.

Christine Lagarde. The IMF says we should have less austerity here,

:05:25.:05:30.

because it isn't working. But in Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Spain,

:05:30.:05:34.

where the austerity is much worse, it says they have to carry on with

:05:34.:05:41.

more. How do we square that? The IMF seem to be all over the place with

:05:41.:05:47.

their views on austerity. It varies from country to country. But George

:05:47.:05:52.

of Swan cannot say that because he spent the last two years supporting

:05:52.:05:58.

the IMF. -- George Osborne. He has had a strange month because all of

:05:58.:06:03.

the economic news has been uniformly bad, and yet his one big success has

:06:03.:06:07.

had nothing to do with his own brief, which is the issue of

:06:07.:06:12.

welfare. He has pushed that very aggressively, and it seems to have

:06:12.:06:16.

had some moderate impact on the polls. It pushes him away from his

:06:16.:06:24.

natural area of economic, the Treasury brief. I thought you were

:06:24.:06:28.

going to say that his one big success was the tears at the

:06:28.:06:34.

funeral! And I am not being entirely flippant about that. It did show a

:06:34.:06:38.

different side to Osborne's personality, which will not do him

:06:38.:06:44.

any harm. What is striking is that George Osborne is looking nervous.

:06:44.:06:48.

In that speech he gave at the Morrison's distribution centre, he

:06:48.:06:54.

was nervous. His people was saying -- were saying afterwards, how did

:06:54.:07:03.

he do? For all that confidence, he looks insecure. He has probably seen

:07:03.:07:08.

the list of chancellors who fade -- failed listening to Treasury briefs.

:07:08.:07:16.

Now, remember this? Not unless you are over 90 years old. 1926 was the

:07:16.:07:20.

last time Britain saw a general strike. The unions will meet at the

:07:20.:07:25.

TUC to decide whether to stage another one in protest at the

:07:25.:07:32.

government's austerity measures. The 1926 general strike was meant to be

:07:32.:07:41.

an open-ended conflict. It wasn't just a protest. It was an overall,

:07:41.:07:43.

open-ended strike, and eventually it collapsed. This would be a one day

:07:43.:07:49.

affair, if it happens at all. What's the point? The worst thing for the

:07:49.:07:54.

unions would it be -- would be to call a general strike and then for

:07:54.:07:59.

it to be a complete flop. In 1926, they had the powers and the

:07:59.:08:03.

involvement in the economy to paralyse the country. You can

:08:03.:08:12.

imagine them calling this now and it being a damp squib. The strikes we

:08:12.:08:16.

have had so far have been pretty lame. So I agree. If they did call a

:08:16.:08:22.

strike, I can't seem -- I can't see it and mounting to much. If they

:08:22.:08:27.

call a strike and only the usual suspects turn up, it will undermine

:08:27.:08:33.

the unions. It will. The tragedy for the unions is that in the 1980s,

:08:33.:08:38.

when Labour did its best to leave planet Earth, the one element of the

:08:38.:08:45.

Labour movement that was sane and helpful was the trade unions. There

:08:45.:08:53.

were people in the trade unions that we have got to fight, so said a

:08:53.:08:59.

member of the Shadow Cabinet. like me will say, do you support the

:08:59.:09:03.

strike or don't you. Someone like Ed Miliband is between a rock and a

:09:03.:09:08.

hard place. We were talking about Ed Miliband's failures in the polls,

:09:08.:09:13.

and this is the last thing he needs. I'm sure his poll ratings would go

:09:13.:09:17.

down even further, because he is forced into a position where he has

:09:17.:09:21.

to come out against the unions, and every one is reminded yet again that

:09:21.:09:31.
:09:31.:09:36.

it was the unions that got him the job in the first place. A battle

:09:36.:09:38.

between Edinburgh and Whitehall. The SNP's latest policy came out last

:09:38.:09:40.

year that they would stick with sterling. The Treasury coming out

:09:40.:09:44.

with the paper this week suggesting it may not be quite as easy as Alex

:09:44.:09:48.

Salmond would have us think. nearly choked on my called legs when

:09:48.:09:52.

I read the piece by George Osborne, because he was arguing in favour of

:09:52.:10:00.

a single currency and saying what a good thing it was. It turned out it

:10:00.:10:03.

was the pound! A pound for the United Kingdom as a whole, and it

:10:03.:10:06.

will not work if Scotland becomes independent. There was a report on

:10:06.:10:11.

the House of Lords economic committee on this, saying it was

:10:11.:10:17.

without precedent having a part of the United Kingdom opting out, and

:10:17.:10:20.

it would be unconstitutional and improper for the bank of England, on

:10:20.:10:24.

the monetary policy committee, to give a seat to an independent

:10:25.:10:29.

Scotland. The problem to the SNP is, when you come down to the nuts

:10:29.:10:33.

and bolts of it, they were going to have their future in the European

:10:33.:10:38.

union. They were going to be an independent country, but they are

:10:38.:10:42.

going to have the same head of state. They were going to be an

:10:42.:10:46.

independent country, but they are going to keep the pounced on, and

:10:46.:10:50.

what is their relationship with the bank of England? Once you get down

:10:50.:10:56.

to the nuts and bolts, it gets very difficult for them. You cannot have

:10:56.:11:01.

a currency union without a political union, and the SNP are flirting with

:11:01.:11:05.

doing that. If you think this position is unattainable now, just

:11:05.:11:12.

think of the heat of the referendum campaign. Alex Salmond is, to give

:11:12.:11:15.

him credit, a really sinuous tactical operator. But when it comes

:11:15.:11:20.

to the heavy lifting on questions of substance, the currency, or whether

:11:20.:11:25.

Scotland would have to reapply for EU membership, he is much more

:11:25.:11:33.

shaky. We have had Stuart Hollies in here on politics Scotland. Let's

:11:33.:11:40.

hear what he was saying. I look forward to the document, because it

:11:40.:11:44.

will not be much more than a repetition of the scare story that

:11:44.:11:53.

we will have to join the euro. It is false to say that a foreign country

:11:53.:11:59.

will be controlling our economy. was talking about the SNP's

:11:59.:12:06.

independence within Europe. Now they do not want the euro. It is good you

:12:06.:12:10.

wield him out, because otherwise we would get criticisms for being

:12:10.:12:16.

biased. I agree exactly with what the others have said. The SNP's

:12:16.:12:23.

position is riddled with contradictions. We were talking

:12:23.:12:27.

about unions breaking up, and this union is breaking up, because this

:12:27.:12:33.

is your last appearance as a regular! Why? You are moving to the

:12:33.:12:40.

country, I hear! It's where it all happens. Not at all! Will you miss

:12:40.:12:50.
:12:50.:12:51.

her? You should hear where she is moving to! I am joining the Chipping

:12:51.:13:01.
:13:01.:13:01.

Norton sect. I will be having you all-rounder to lunch! In that case,

:13:01.:13:11.
:13:11.:13:13.

we are up for it! Will you come back and see us? Will do, yes.Thank you

:13:13.:13:18.

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