Browse content similar to 23/03/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely | :00:36. | :00:43. | |
settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election | :00:47. | :00:49. | |
springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all | :00:58. | :01:01. | |
on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the | :01:02. | :01:07. | |
maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
Mondays tells us about his unlikely plan to become an MP. | :01:11. | :01:19. | |
In London, the Mafia man gets to stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of | :01:20. | :01:26. | |
making the European arrest warrant work better? -- Uxbridge. And who | :01:27. | :01:38. | |
better to help guide you through all of that than three journalists, who | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
dispense wisdom faster than Grant Shapps calls out the numbers in his | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and | :01:45. | :01:47. | |
they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh. | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so | :02:00. | :02:04. | |
many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably | :02:08. | :02:11. | |
a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3 5 | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in | :02:15. | :02:16. | |
three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their | :02:17. | :02:47. | |
own, driven partly by tradition like that photocall at 11 Downing | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and | :02:51. | :02:53. | |
explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget | :02:54. | :03:06. | |
Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be | :03:17. | :03:19. | |
something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily | :03:20. | :03:22. | |
towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what | :03:23. | :03:28. | |
those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to | :03:29. | :03:31. | |
the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the | :03:32. | :03:34. | |
Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on | :03:44. | :03:47. | |
Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax | :03:48. | :03:54. | |
personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which | :03:55. | :04:00. | |
ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster | :04:01. | :04:05. | |
boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p or the froth on the top. And changes to | :04:06. | :04:08. | |
pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity. | :04:13. | :04:21. | |
This is a Budget for the makers the doers and the savers and I commend | :04:22. | :04:24. | |
it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of | :04:33. | :04:39. | |
Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all | :04:40. | :04:43. | |
the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an | :04:44. | :04:46. | |
hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people | :04:47. | :04:49. | |
of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
the Budget at the best of times though some, including Labour MPs, | :04:55. | :04:57. | |
think it is better to mention the Budget when you do. | :04:58. | :05:00. | |
Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed | :05:01. | :05:07. | |
Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits | :05:08. | :05:10. | |
down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team. | :05:11. | :05:18. | |
I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget | :05:19. | :05:21. | |
than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and | :05:22. | :05:25. | |
other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and | :05:26. | :05:27. | |
detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC? | :05:28. | :05:37. | |
Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days | :05:38. | :05:39. | |
later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still | :05:40. | :05:42. | |
seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of | :05:43. | :05:44. | |
voters? How significant are these two poles | :05:45. | :06:00. | |
this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party | :06:01. | :06:09. | |
a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been | :06:19. | :06:22. | |
ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and | :06:23. | :06:28. | |
others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which | :06:29. | :06:32. | |
is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The | :06:48. | :06:52. | |
Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next | :06:53. | :06:57. | |
time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again | :07:07. | :07:10. | |
Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were | :07:11. | :07:14. | |
saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much | :07:25. | :07:33. | |
into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office. | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
before an election. What I underestimated was, how many | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people | :08:01. | :08:06. | |
who are frustrated by low interest rates and tax rates on pension pots. | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
This was an explicit gesture for them. That is what has paid off in | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
the polls in the past few days. You spend all of your money on your | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
wardrobe, is that right? The bingo poster was a kind of get out of jail | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
card for Labour. It gave them something to zoom in on. Everyone | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman. We read in the daily | :08:31. | :08:36. | |
Telegraph that the fingerprints of the Chancellor were all over this | :08:37. | :08:42. | |
poster. The Chancellor signed off it -- off on it and so did Lynton | :08:43. | :08:50. | |
Crosby. They referred to working class people as, they are. How did | :08:51. | :08:58. | |
it get into the Telegraph? We can only presume but grant Shapps made | :08:59. | :09:02. | |
it clear that it was not him. We had a time when Labour politicians, we | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
saw from the response of Ed Miliband onwards, they were not quite sure | :09:08. | :09:11. | |
how to react to this budget. A lot of detail had to be absorbed. | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
Suddenly, here is something we can talk about. You can see the thinking | :09:17. | :09:27. | |
behind the poster was very sensible. We are not Tory toffs, we are | :09:28. | :09:29. | |
interested in helping people who do not come from our backgrounds. The | :09:30. | :09:32. | |
wording was awful and played into every cliche. It was all his fault. | :09:33. | :09:39. | |
It shows how unsophisticated he was. There were people from Tory HQ | :09:40. | :09:47. | |
who agreed the budget. A month down the line will the budget look as | :09:48. | :09:58. | |
good? Probably. Once people look at it, pensions are fiendishly | :09:59. | :10:01. | |
conjugated. Once they look and see what it will do with people having | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
to pay for their own care because they can now take capital at their | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
pension, that will come as a shock to a lot of people with small | :10:10. | :10:14. | |
savings. It all be gone on their care. The polling will be neck and | :10:15. | :10:22. | |
neck all the way. In the past, George Osborne has been accused of | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
using his Budgets to tinker at the margins or pull cheap tricks on his | :10:26. | :10:28. | |
political opponents. Perish the thought. But the big surprise in | :10:29. | :10:31. | |
this year's statement was a genuinely radical shake-up of the | :10:32. | :10:33. | |
pensions system that will affect most people who've yet to retire. At | :10:34. | :10:45. | |
the moment, everyone is saving money into a defined contribution pension, | :10:46. | :10:48. | |
that is the type most common in the private sector. They can take 2 % of | :10:49. | :10:54. | |
the pot is a tax-free lump sum when they retire. The rest of the money, | :10:55. | :10:59. | |
for most people, they are forced to buy an annuity, a form of insurance | :11:00. | :11:02. | |
which provide a guaranteed monthly income until they die. Annuities | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
have hardly been a bargain since interest rates were flat slashed | :11:08. | :11:15. | |
following the financial crash. Even with a ?100,000 pension pot would | :11:16. | :11:21. | |
only get an income of ?5,800 a year at current rates. From 2018, | :11:22. | :11:24. | |
pensioners will not be forced to buy an annuity. They can do what they | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
like with their money, even taking the entire pot as a lump some but | :11:30. | :11:33. | |
paying tax on 75% of it. With an average pension pot closer | :11:34. | :11:45. | |
to around ?30,000, pensioners would be more likely to buy a Skoda | :11:46. | :11:53. | |
instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly retired people who take the cash are | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
more likely to spend the money paying off their mortgage, helping a | :11:59. | :12:02. | |
family member to buy a property or investing the money elsewhere. Well, | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
earlier I spoke to the Pensions Minister. He's a Lib Dem called | :12:06. | :12:08. | |
Steve Webb. I began by asking him if he still thought the reforms might | :12:09. | :12:11. | |
lead to pensioners splurging all their savings on supercars. What | :12:12. | :12:19. | |
this reform is about is treating people as adults. For far too long, | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
we have said, we will make sure you save for your old age and then we | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
will control each year how much is spent on what you spend it on. What | :12:27. | :12:32. | |
we are saying is because we have formed -- reformed the state | :12:33. | :12:35. | |
pension, we will be much more relaxed about what people do with | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
their own money. The evidence is that people who have been frugal and | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
saved hard for retirement do not generally blows a lot. They will | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
spin it out. It is treating people as adults and giving them choices | :12:48. | :12:52. | |
they should have had all along. It is a red herring, isn't it? The | :12:53. | :13:00. | |
average pension pot is between 5000 and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an | :13:01. | :13:06. | |
option, correct? I gather only about 5000 people a year retiring can buy | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
a flashy Italian sports car. It might be about paying off a | :13:12. | :13:14. | |
mortgage, paying off outstanding debts. Maybe spending more money | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
earlier in retirement when they are fit and able and can enjoy it more. | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
We will give people guidance. We will make sure when they retire | :13:23. | :13:27. | |
there is someone to have a conversation with talking through | :13:28. | :13:30. | |
the implications of spending the money early and options of investing | :13:31. | :13:34. | |
it. This will be a real step forward. Even if you have a much | :13:35. | :13:41. | |
bigger pension pot, say half ?1 million, which is way bigger than | :13:42. | :13:45. | |
the average, even then the marginal rates of tax will be a disincentive | :13:46. | :13:50. | |
to take it all out at once. You will lose huge chunks of it at the 4 % | :13:51. | :13:58. | |
band and then the 45% band. The tax system gives you the incentive to | :13:59. | :14:02. | |
spread it out if the tax threshold is a bit over 10000 and the state | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
pension is a bit over 7000, the first 3000 you draw out in a given | :14:08. | :14:12. | |
year is tax-free. The next band is at 20%. Spreading your money will | :14:13. | :14:20. | |
mean you pay less tax. That is why, in general, people will not blow the | :14:21. | :14:23. | |
lot up front. They will spread it out over their retirement. You have | :14:24. | :14:29. | |
kept this policy quiet. Not even a hint. How did you test it? How did | :14:30. | :14:34. | |
you make sure it would be robust? You did not do a consultation. I | :14:35. | :14:40. | |
have been talking about freeing up the annuity market for a decade The | :14:41. | :14:44. | |
idea of giving people more choice. The government has relaxed rules | :14:45. | :14:48. | |
over this Parliament. It was not a completely new idea. We know in | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
places like Australia and America, people have these freedoms. We | :14:53. | :15:01. | |
already have something to judge it by. We will spend the next year | :15:02. | :15:03. | |
talking to people, working it through. There will be a three-month | :15:04. | :15:06. | |
consultation. I want people to have choices about their own money. There | :15:07. | :15:09. | |
is detail still to be worked out and we are in listening mode about how | :15:10. | :15:15. | |
we implement it. When you announce something you cannot do widespread | :15:16. | :15:18. | |
consultation, for the reasons I have given, you do run the risk of | :15:19. | :15:22. | |
unforeseen consequences? Pension companies this morning are | :15:23. | :15:25. | |
indicating, you, the government can write you are looking for ?25 | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
billion of infrastructure investment from us. You hold our shell below | :15:30. | :15:35. | |
the water line. That may not happen. We spoke internally about the | :15:36. | :15:52. | |
implications for instruction -- infrastructure. It seems to me there | :15:53. | :16:02. | |
will still be long-term investments. Many people want to turn their whole | :16:03. | :16:09. | |
pot into an income. I understand the insurance companies are lobbying, | :16:10. | :16:12. | |
but I'm convinced there will still be plenty of money for investment | :16:13. | :16:19. | |
and infrastructure. If the Chancellor's pro-savings measures | :16:20. | :16:24. | |
work, that will generate more savings. With no requirement now to | :16:25. | :16:29. | |
buy an annuity, surely it is the case that pension pots are another | :16:30. | :16:36. | |
ordinary savings fund, so why should they continue to get favourable tax | :16:37. | :16:42. | |
treatment? Bear in mind that a lot of the tax treatment of pensioners | :16:43. | :16:47. | |
is tax deferred so most people pay tax at the standard rate. If they | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
put money into a pension, they don't pay tax when they earn it, but they | :16:53. | :17:00. | |
do at retirement. We do want, we will still have automatic enrolment | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
into workplace pensions, we do want people to build up, because at age | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
20 and 30 nobody thinks about retirement. It is still vital that | :17:11. | :17:17. | |
people do reach retirement to have these new choices with a decent | :17:18. | :17:24. | |
sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax breaks because they were supposed to | :17:25. | :17:28. | |
provide an income in retirement that is how it was structured, but | :17:29. | :17:32. | |
that is no longer a requirement surely that undermines the case that | :17:33. | :17:39. | |
if they get tax breaks, other forms of savings should get tax breaks. | :17:40. | :17:45. | |
Other forms do get tax breaks, of course. The return with ISAs is tax | :17:46. | :17:59. | |
free. The point with pensions is that you are simply deferring your | :18:00. | :18:08. | |
earnings. There is a bit when high tax rate payers get a kick when they | :18:09. | :18:11. | |
are working and then retire on standard rate, so there is the issue | :18:12. | :18:17. | |
of the top getting too many tax breaks, but the basic principle that | :18:18. | :18:21. | |
you pay tax when you get the income seems right to me and isn't affected | :18:22. | :18:29. | |
by these changes. You have announced save friendly measures, are we right | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
to look at them as a consolation prize because savers have suffered | :18:34. | :18:38. | |
from the Government's policy of keeping interest rates abnormally | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
low? It is certainly the case that very low interest rates have been a | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
huge boon to people of working age with mortgages, and people who have | :18:50. | :18:53. | |
retired said they thought they could have got a better deal on their | :18:54. | :18:58. | |
savings. I think there is a recognition that whilst we have done | :18:59. | :19:03. | |
the right thing with pensioners on the state pension, we have brought | :19:04. | :19:10. | |
in the triple lock, and many will bent on -- benefit from these | :19:11. | :19:19. | |
changes. Why don't savers who are not pensioners get the same help? | :19:20. | :19:24. | |
They have been hit by low interest rates as well. Those of working | :19:25. | :19:30. | |
age, many of them say they have benefited from low interest rates | :19:31. | :19:35. | |
was predominantly people in retirement have not had the benefit. | :19:36. | :19:43. | |
Obviously people of working age will have benefited from the tax | :19:44. | :19:52. | |
allowance so it is a myth to say the Budget was all about pensioners And | :19:53. | :19:57. | |
yet even when the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account | :19:58. | :20:00. | |
your new measures, it still shows that over the next five years | :20:01. | :20:06. | |
households will save less and less, indeed the savings ratio falls by | :20:07. | :20:13. | |
50%. You haven't done enough. One of the things we know is that the | :20:14. | :20:18. | |
economy is picking up strongly, and as we have more confidence about the | :20:19. | :20:22. | |
future they will be more willing to consume now, so without these | :20:23. | :20:26. | |
measures it may be that the saving rate would have fallen further. We | :20:27. | :20:32. | |
want people to save and spend, it is about getting the right balance As | :20:33. | :20:38. | |
the economy picks up, people will want to spend more of their money | :20:39. | :20:42. | |
and it is about getting the balance right. You make the point that if | :20:43. | :20:47. | |
people are little profligate with their private pensions, they will | :20:48. | :20:51. | |
have the state pension to fall back on and it will be higher than it has | :20:52. | :20:56. | |
been, but it is also the case that in these circumstances they will | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
still be entitled to housing benefit and even to perhaps some council tax | :21:02. | :21:07. | |
benefit as well. Do you know by how much this could put the welfare bill | :21:08. | :21:13. | |
up? We think the impact will be relatively modest because the sort | :21:14. | :21:18. | |
of people who save for a pension and make sacrifices while they are at | :21:19. | :21:22. | |
work are not the sort of people who get to 65 and decide to blow the lot | :21:23. | :21:29. | |
for the great privilege of receiving council tax benefit or housing | :21:30. | :21:33. | |
benefit. There will be people on the margins and | :21:34. | :21:44. | |
benefit. There will be people on the who retire with some capital want to | :21:45. | :21:45. | |
put some money away for their funeral. People like to save even | :21:46. | :21:52. | |
into retirement so the myth of the spendthrift pensioner I don't | :21:53. | :21:57. | |
believe. I think this has been rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a | :21:58. | :22:03. | |
Lamborghini yourself? If you turned the camera around you would see my | :22:04. | :22:19. | |
2-door Corsa! What's your favourite thing about an | :22:20. | :22:21. | |
election? Could it be the candidates ringing on your door while you're | :22:22. | :22:24. | |
having dinner? The leaflets piling up on your doormat? Or the endless | :22:25. | :22:27. | |
adverts aimed at hardworking families? Well, if you thought that | :22:28. | :22:30. | |
was bad enough, then you might want to consider going overseas for the | :22:31. | :22:33. | |
2015 election because the parties are going to be aiming their message | :22:34. | :22:36. | |
at you like never before. Adam's been to Worcester to find out more. | :22:37. | :22:42. | |
One of the most famous political figures in history lived here, she | :22:43. | :22:48. | |
is called Worcester woman. She was in her 30s, working class with a | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
couple of kids, aspirational yet worried about quality of life. But | :22:53. | :22:56. | |
she wasn't a real person, she was a label for the kind of voter new | :22:57. | :23:01. | |
Labour were trying to reach and she was later joined by Mondeo man and | :23:02. | :23:08. | |
several others. Doesn't that all seem a bit 90s? The technique, | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
called segmentation, was used by George Bush in 2004. Then refined by | :23:13. | :23:19. | |
Barack Obama. Rather than focusing on crude measures like cars and | :23:20. | :23:25. | |
hometowns, they delved into the minds of voters. It is not just | :23:26. | :23:29. | |
women, not just people who live in cities, but if you start to put | :23:30. | :23:35. | |
together these groups of people you can even in an anecdote or way | :23:36. | :23:40. | |
imagine who they are, what types of language and imagery might relate to | :23:41. | :23:48. | |
them. We have been given access to a new polling model being used here by | :23:49. | :23:53. | |
this firm, which is pretty close to the one we are told is being used by | :23:54. | :24:00. | |
the Tories. It carves the country into six personality types, and we | :24:01. | :24:04. | |
are trying it out on Worcester woman and wast of man. We are using an | :24:05. | :24:10. | |
online quiz to work out who is in which segment. Meet new monk, | :24:11. | :24:18. | |
Susie. She feels well represented. I know the Budget and the increases to | :24:19. | :24:25. | |
childcare, I think at the moment I am fairly represented. This puts her | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
in the category of optimistic contentment, people who feel they | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
are doing OK. Terry, on the other hand, isn't happy about Britain | :24:36. | :24:43. | |
today. Health and safety and all that! I hardly recognise the country | :24:44. | :24:52. | |
a living in any more? Yes. Are you ready for the result? He is Mr | :24:53. | :24:59. | |
comfortable nostalgia, they tend to favour the Tories and UKIP. They | :25:00. | :25:03. | |
dislike the cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the | :25:04. | :25:10. | |
worst. That sums me up. Tony is worried as well but feels much less | :25:11. | :25:17. | |
secure. I look forward to the future with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety. | :25:18. | :25:25. | |
Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. His category is... You feel a bit | :25:26. | :25:35. | |
insecure, you think the Government could probably help you more? Yes. | :25:36. | :25:42. | |
Labour picks up a lot of these voters. This man is being asked to | :25:43. | :25:48. | |
do more and more at work, but he is getting less and less. I am getting | :25:49. | :25:56. | |
more towards the despair side. Things are getting tougher, | :25:57. | :26:01. | |
generally? It puts him into the segment called long-term despair, | :26:02. | :26:07. | |
people who feel left out. Finally, this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am | :26:08. | :26:17. | |
a bit of an idealist. Her idealism makes her a cosmopolitan critic I | :26:18. | :26:24. | |
am a liberal person. Apparently a lot of the media fit into this | :26:25. | :26:28. | |
category as well. There is one group of voters we have not come across, | :26:29. | :26:33. | |
people who show calm persistence. They hope things will get better but | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
don't expect them to. They are coping, rather than comfortable | :26:39. | :26:43. | |
Presumably they are all out of work. Which group are you win? You can | :26:44. | :26:48. | |
take the poll on the BBC website, and in the coming weeks we will be | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
doing our own polling using the six segments to see of the politicians | :26:54. | :27:00. | |
really have worked out how we think. And as Adam said, if you want to try | :27:01. | :27:04. | |
the survey for yourself, you can go to the BBC website and click on the | :27:05. | :27:07. | |
link. And we're joined now by the | :27:08. | :27:16. | |
pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to Sunday Politics. We have had | :27:17. | :27:22. | |
Worcester woman, Worcester man, is this any different? It is a | :27:23. | :27:29. | |
recognition that or politician - all politics these days is like | :27:30. | :27:42. | |
this. It enables them to cut them more finally. You think all politics | :27:43. | :27:50. | |
is coalition politics, you think they have to put together these | :27:51. | :27:55. | |
groups of people, not that the Lib Dems will always be in power? No, | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
and if you listen to the coverage these days you might think it is | :28:02. | :28:07. | |
about grumpy old men on the one hand with Guardian readers on the other. | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
It is far more complicated than that, there is a lot of churning | :28:13. | :28:15. | |
going on underneath which is driven by people's value systems. A lot of | :28:16. | :28:23. | |
this has been pioneered in the United States, very sophisticated on | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
their election techniques, and in Britain we are always the first to | :28:29. | :28:33. | |
grab whatever the New Year will is from America. How do you think this | :28:34. | :28:38. | |
will translate to this country? I think it means that if you are | :28:39. | :28:42. | |
target photo you will still get the same of leaflets and people calling, | :28:43. | :28:47. | |
but you will probably have different kinds of conversations because | :28:48. | :28:52. | |
people on the other side, the party campaigners, will think they know | :28:53. | :28:59. | |
more about you. Will I know who you are? If I am a party campaigner | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
will I know, looking down the street, who fits into which | :29:04. | :29:08. | |
category? You will be able to approximate that with all of the | :29:09. | :29:12. | |
other data that you have gathered through polling, or doing local | :29:13. | :29:17. | |
campaigning, that is the idea to make sense of this vast quantity of | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
data people have about voters. We asked our panel to fill in your | :29:24. | :29:28. | |
survey. Nick is optimistic contentment, 99%. He was 1% | :29:29. | :29:34. | |
cosmopolitan critic, which is how he keeps his job at the Guardian. | :29:35. | :29:40. | |
Polly's job could not be more secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics, | :29:41. | :29:46. | |
and Janan Ganesh, optimistic contentment, which is what you would | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this | :29:51. | :30:06. | |
technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the | :30:07. | :30:16. | |
population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated | :30:21. | :30:26. | |
methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You | :30:27. | :30:33. | |
said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there | :30:34. | :30:38. | |
them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we | :30:39. | :30:43. | |
did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did | :30:44. | :30:50. | |
not know these people existed. Unless you know about certain key | :30:51. | :30:54. | |
demographics, you are wasting your time. Is it important in modern | :30:55. | :31:00. | |
campaigning? I think it is useful because it is about attitude. We | :31:01. | :31:11. | |
have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn. It does not tell us very much. What | :31:12. | :31:16. | |
people think and feel may be different to their income. You can | :31:17. | :31:20. | |
be quite a high earner and anxious. You can be quite a low earner and | :31:21. | :31:24. | |
feeling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I think this does | :31:25. | :31:31. | |
get something else. In days gone by, particularly in America, | :31:32. | :31:36. | |
overwhelmingly, if you are in the better of segment, you would be | :31:37. | :31:40. | |
Republican and the blue-collar workers and some academics and | :31:41. | :31:44. | |
Liberals voted Democrat. In the last election, the richest 200 counties | :31:45. | :31:49. | |
in America voted Democrat. That is an attitude thing. Income does not | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
tell you how people will vote. There is a huge, working-class base of | :31:55. | :31:59. | |
support for the Republicans. It is unavoidable. Add a time when people | :32:00. | :32:03. | |
no longer identify with ideologies or class blocks, you have to go the | :32:04. | :32:12. | |
temperament and lifestyle and manageable. In America there were | :32:13. | :32:22. | |
128 segments according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that | :32:23. | :32:27. | |
stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget | :32:28. | :32:32. | |
earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour | :32:33. | :32:40. | |
has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne | :32:41. | :32:48. | |
and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band | :32:49. | :32:54. | |
and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr | :32:55. | :32:56. | |
Miller band. Thank you for being with us today. | :32:57. | :33:12. | |
It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say | :33:13. | :33:16. | |
goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics | :33:17. | :33:19. | |
Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes: We'll be talking about | :33:20. | :33:22. | |
Labour's response to the Budget and hear why one of the Happy Mondays | :33:23. | :33:25. | |
wants to be an MP. First though the Sunday Politics where you are. | :33:26. | :33:35. | |
Can you welcome to my two guest today? We will be interested in one | :33:36. | :33:48. | |
of the things we were talking about a bit later. An Italian man, | :33:49. | :33:54. | |
previously linked with the Mafia and living in Uxbridge, escaped | :33:55. | :33:59. | |
extradition. How is the European arrest warrant working? That in a | :34:00. | :34:02. | |
moment. Before that a quick word on budgetary beer bingo and building. | :34:03. | :34:10. | |
The capital has never faced such housing needs. In one sentence, this | :34:11. | :34:16. | |
was what was on offer this week In the South East, where the pressure | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
is greatest, we are going to build new homes in Barking riverside and | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
built the first new garden city in 100 years. Does that deal with the | :34:25. | :34:34. | |
areas housing problems? The Chancellor made some important | :34:35. | :34:40. | |
statements in relation to Barking and Brent Cross. It is the | :34:41. | :34:45. | |
underpinning. There is work that the mayor is taking forward overwhelming | :34:46. | :34:50. | |
to open up the riverside frontage. That is the issue. It is not an | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
important announcement by the Tunstall if the key component is not | :34:56. | :35:03. | |
there. -- announced by the Chancellor is the key component is | :35:04. | :35:15. | |
not there. They must scope out the extension to the rail line. It was | :35:16. | :35:21. | |
about ensuring support for savers and investing in business and the | :35:22. | :35:26. | |
pensioners. A locked for Londoners to welcome. Is that enough when you | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
see a mention of something in a budget? We're going to create these | :35:31. | :35:37. | |
homes. By mentioning them, is it a sign of your intent? You do not have | :35:38. | :35:42. | |
to give any further details. This was the classic Day after tomorrow | :35:43. | :35:49. | |
budget. The London housing problems are endemic. They are to do with | :35:50. | :35:55. | |
cost and access. You talk about every fleet, it has the Channel | :35:56. | :35:58. | |
Tunnel and the international rail link. When you look at Barking and | :35:59. | :36:06. | |
Dagenham... It has shrunk down. It is all over the place. In Mount | :36:07. | :36:10. | |
Pleasant, there was originally going to be a huge amount of social | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
housing. There is very little. Opening up the riverside is an | :36:16. | :36:19. | |
excellent idea. There are issues about water levels which we need to | :36:20. | :36:23. | |
worry about. This is not going to solve the problem. It is a problem | :36:24. | :36:29. | |
of access and finance. We have to consider that. Once it is being | :36:30. | :36:37. | |
mentioned it is a long process it takes time with the details. The | :36:38. | :36:44. | |
process has been set out. The discussions and detailed between the | :36:45. | :36:47. | |
man and Treasury are taking place. It must be ensured the | :36:48. | :36:56. | |
infrastructure supports this. When you look at what the man has said | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
this week, that he believes the funding will be there once the | :37:01. | :37:02. | |
detailed planning and repose of our there, we will see that work being | :37:03. | :37:08. | |
done. There has been very little consistencies in the housing | :37:09. | :37:13. | |
policies of the mayor. To say we are going to do something in five years | :37:14. | :37:16. | |
time when we have the biggest level of cuts about to hit us after | :37:17. | :37:22. | |
2015... I will tell you what we will have, three Docklands light Railway | :37:23. | :37:32. | |
stations. In the real world, Ken Livingstone introduced the social | :37:33. | :37:36. | |
housing component. That gave proper affordable housing to Londoners and | :37:37. | :37:43. | |
that was a real achievement. Might rail was not going to solve that | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
issue. -- the Docklands light Railway was not going to solve that | :37:50. | :37:54. | |
issue. We will see when that discussion comes. It is heavy row | :37:55. | :37:58. | |
that is the issue. We have a lot to get through. The European arrest | :37:59. | :38:03. | |
warrant was introduced a decade ago by the then Labour government. Its | :38:04. | :38:08. | |
aim, to speed up the extradition process within the European Union, | :38:09. | :38:11. | |
help counterterrorism put an end to the days of bank robbers retiring to | :38:12. | :38:14. | |
Spain to live out their retirement in the sun. Changes to how the | :38:15. | :38:19. | |
system works out as gone through Parliament. It has been highlighted | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
again by the curious Case of the former Mafia man, unearthed in | :38:24. | :38:28. | |
Axbridge. This ordinary looking at Bridge Street was in the news this | :38:29. | :38:36. | |
week due to one extra ordinarily resident. -- Uxbridge. Domenico | :38:37. | :38:41. | |
Rancadore was a leading figure in organised crime. Westminster | :38:42. | :38:44. | |
magistrates Court refused to deport him under a European arrest warrant. | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
It said Italian prisons were so overcrowded it would be in breach of | :38:50. | :38:57. | |
his human rights. This country will actually not extradite someone who | :38:58. | :39:00. | |
is a convicted Cosa Nostra individual apparently from the | :39:01. | :39:11. | |
Mafia. Andrew went on holiday to Greece with friends, aged 18. On his | :39:12. | :39:15. | |
return to the UK, aged 18. On his return to the UK copy was wrongly | :39:16. | :39:22. | |
accused by the Greek was not even in. He was deported to Greece and | :39:23. | :39:28. | |
spent two years fighting the case. The conditions were terrible. I | :39:29. | :39:35. | |
think what was far worse was the emotional side. Many members, and in | :39:36. | :39:41. | |
particular my honourable friend for Enfield North, will recall the | :39:42. | :39:45. | |
case... The government recognises that in this case something went | :39:46. | :39:50. | |
wrong. A change in the law was introduced so people would only be | :39:51. | :39:54. | |
extradited to face trial abroad not sent to a foreign country to | :39:55. | :40:01. | |
investigate. They claimed they were trial ready but they were not. The | :40:02. | :40:05. | |
problem is you cannot work with them at all. That is the problem. If you | :40:06. | :40:11. | |
say they have to be trial ready they will say they are trial ready | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
but they are liars. Deborah was found not guilty of a drug offence | :40:17. | :40:20. | |
in France will stop she returned to the UK and lived the normal life. | :40:21. | :40:26. | |
Known to her, the French court tried her in her absence. She was found | :40:27. | :40:29. | |
guilty and the European arrest warrant issued. It was when she was | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
returning from this family holiday in Spain that she found out. The | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
Spanish authorities detained her with the intention of extraditing | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
her to France. She went to a Spanish prison. Constant fighting. Every | :40:44. | :40:51. | |
single day. It was not unusual to see a body come out one of the | :40:52. | :40:55. | |
cells, they put them on a sack and drag them down the corridor. The | :40:56. | :41:00. | |
Spanish courts decided not to extradite her. She flew back to the | :41:01. | :41:05. | |
UK and was picked up at Gatwick airport on the same European arrest | :41:06. | :41:09. | |
warrant. She was sent to Holloway prison and have to fight the same | :41:10. | :41:18. | |
warrant. She said the effect on her life is permanent. It has destroyed | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
my life completely. It has left me unemployable. I have massive debt. | :41:24. | :41:31. | |
At my age, eyes should be enjoying life. I am not. I am just existing. | :41:32. | :41:42. | |
According to campaigners, the safeguards introduced will do | :41:43. | :41:47. | |
nothing to stop cases like this Even though the British courts have | :41:48. | :41:50. | |
refused to extradite her and the Spanish courts, the arrest warrant | :41:51. | :41:54. | |
still sat there for some any time she left the UK, she was subject to | :41:55. | :41:59. | |
the risk of being rearrested. You need an EU wide solution to deal | :42:00. | :42:04. | |
with that. The UK on its own cannot solve the problem. The safeguards | :42:05. | :42:07. | |
that have been introduced would not deal with that. While the government | :42:08. | :42:11. | |
says the European arrest warrant does not work on the way it should, | :42:12. | :42:16. | |
there are attempts to do something about it and this has left some | :42:17. | :42:23. | |
dissatisfied. Let's start with the case of Domenico Rancadore. What did | :42:24. | :42:29. | |
you make of that? I think it is important to underline this is a | :42:30. | :42:34. | |
case on specific facts which related to prison conditions in Italy. It | :42:35. | :42:38. | |
may well be that judgement will be appealed. It is difficult for me to | :42:39. | :42:46. | |
comment in detail. What I do understand is concerned around the | :42:47. | :42:49. | |
effectiveness of the European arrest warrant. That is why we have made | :42:50. | :42:55. | |
changes. Give us a reaction at a human level to that reaction? | :42:56. | :43:02. | |
Italian prison, apparently to overcrowded to send a former Mafia. | :43:03. | :43:07. | |
They want him back there. The court was satisfied that all the | :43:08. | :43:10. | |
conditions were met in terms of returning this individual under the | :43:11. | :43:14. | |
European arrest warrant. It was simply that the provisions that the | :43:15. | :43:18. | |
Italians had provided, the insurances they gave, were not | :43:19. | :43:22. | |
sufficient. I think it is important that we do step up our response to | :43:23. | :43:27. | |
have that greater consistency. The European arrest warrant we have used | :43:28. | :43:33. | |
effectively in countries like Spain. There was a joint operation between | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
our law enforcement, Crimestoppers and the Spanish authorities. It has | :43:39. | :43:42. | |
seen serious criminals return to this country to face justice. I have | :43:43. | :43:46. | |
publicly supported it for its work in that way. There are issues and | :43:47. | :43:53. | |
reforms we would like to see. What do you think? Do you think | :43:54. | :44:00. | |
conditions in Italian prisons are not good enough? There have been two | :44:01. | :44:05. | |
cases where Italian conditions have not been held to be sufficient. | :44:06. | :44:11. | |
There was a previous Lithuanian case. What I think is we can work | :44:12. | :44:16. | |
through this, assurances can be given. The court has said it does | :44:17. | :44:20. | |
not mean we cannot extradite people to Italy. The focus is on working | :44:21. | :44:24. | |
through. That is what the Crown Prosecution Service and the Italian | :44:25. | :44:29. | |
authorities will be doing so we can see the European arrest warrant are | :44:30. | :44:34. | |
upheld. Do you accept it may well raise doubts about the European | :44:35. | :44:38. | |
arrest warrant system, even though, as you say, it should not | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
specifically do that? Assurances can be examined to see how the court can | :44:44. | :44:47. | |
be better satisfied as to the conditions. That is one thing. It is | :44:48. | :44:52. | |
not for me to make the decision My understanding is that an appeal is | :44:53. | :44:54. | |
likely to be forthcoming and I would support that to test the law, to see | :44:55. | :44:59. | |
that we can uphold European arrest warrant effectively. It is a | :45:00. | :45:07. | |
specific case, based on specific facts. What you feel about him being | :45:08. | :45:08. | |
allowed to stay here? I think that saying Italian prisons | :45:09. | :45:21. | |
are too dangerous, every single Italian prosecutor now will be | :45:22. | :45:32. | |
saying, my lord, they have set our prisons are so dangerous they | :45:33. | :45:40. | |
infringe human rights! Who was almost my neighbour, the Uxbridge | :45:41. | :45:48. | |
mafioso. Where you think you have reformed and tighten the rules, he | :45:49. | :45:52. | |
says, you say you won't let people go abroad, say, to Greece unless it | :45:53. | :46:00. | |
is for trial, he will say it is but it isn't really. Nobody can not be | :46:01. | :46:07. | |
moved by the Andrew sinew case and that is why we have made changes to | :46:08. | :46:13. | |
legislation to underpin the sense of it being ready, and trial will | :46:14. | :46:20. | |
proceed. Ultimately, with this change, it is possible to bring this | :46:21. | :46:26. | |
before the courts for the court to examine this properly. That is why I | :46:27. | :46:30. | |
think it is a significant change but has been brought forward. I'm sure | :46:31. | :46:34. | |
there is more we can do at a European level, and it is something | :46:35. | :46:40. | |
the European Parliament itself is getting its teeth into, recognising | :46:41. | :46:44. | |
these are not just issues for the UK but other countries as well. Is | :46:45. | :46:50. | |
there anything you can say to the Greeks? You will have to be much | :46:51. | :46:56. | |
more straight with us, we are happy to extradite people but you cannot | :46:57. | :47:02. | |
keep them waiting. Luck one of them madness is about the Deborah Dark | :47:03. | :47:10. | |
case is that she didn't even know her case had been appealed and it is | :47:11. | :47:14. | |
the policy not to tell people whether an arrest warrant has been | :47:15. | :47:19. | |
applied for, or if it exists. There has to be some sort of mutual | :47:20. | :47:24. | |
recognition within the EU where each European state recognises... Because | :47:25. | :47:32. | |
we are not part of that agreement, whenever she travels it could happen | :47:33. | :47:38. | |
to her again. We have no intention of becoming party shame on but we | :47:39. | :47:54. | |
are pursuing the system to do with sharing information and it is due to | :47:55. | :47:58. | |
come into effect October this year so there is better recognition and | :47:59. | :48:02. | |
understanding of when European arrest warrants have been issued so | :48:03. | :48:08. | |
that there is clarity between member states. So it could not happen again | :48:09. | :48:13. | |
that if she was travelling in Spain for instance that she could ever get | :48:14. | :48:21. | |
that warrant reactivated from France? Each member state can see | :48:22. | :48:26. | |
the arrest warrants issued by the other member states, that will make | :48:27. | :48:30. | |
it more effective, but I'm sure there is more to do and why we want | :48:31. | :48:35. | |
to have the further debate at EU level. We have been hearing a lot | :48:36. | :48:39. | |
again this week about the proposed high-speed to rail link. First the | :48:40. | :48:45. | |
project's new chairman back to revamp of Euston station, but he | :48:46. | :48:49. | |
also suggested there should be no connection with the existing | :48:50. | :48:54. | |
high-speed Channel Tunnel rail link. Then the Government released a | :48:55. | :48:58. | |
report which recommended there be a minister dedicated to making the | :48:59. | :49:02. | |
project happen, and which also said that businesses and communities | :49:03. | :49:06. | |
along the route needed to start preparing now so they can reap the | :49:07. | :49:11. | |
economic benefit. We are joined from Manchester by a Liberal Democrat | :49:12. | :49:17. | |
peer, Baroness Susan Kramer. During that introduction, Stephen Pound | :49:18. | :49:22. | |
pointed at you and said, there we are, just the Minister to do it It | :49:23. | :49:28. | |
is kind of view, but there is a minister, Patrick McLoughlin. They | :49:29. | :49:35. | |
are actually suggesting in the report that we look at a minister to | :49:36. | :49:40. | |
coordinate the economic developments among communities because in the | :49:41. | :49:44. | |
Midlands and the north, that is crucial to realising the real | :49:45. | :49:48. | |
benefits from HS2 and that is something we will look at. So it may | :49:49. | :49:55. | |
or may not be you one day. Do you accept it has been a mess over | :49:56. | :50:01. | |
Euston. It said there would be a revamping of Euston to begin with, | :50:02. | :50:05. | |
then people went cold on the idea, then it looks like we have got to go | :50:06. | :50:10. | |
and do Euston properly. Do you accept this has been a bit confusing | :50:11. | :50:17. | |
and unsettling for local residents? I am glad we have been getting to | :50:18. | :50:22. | |
the right answer, but now we are looking at a really ambitious plan | :50:23. | :50:26. | |
and you only have to look at the improvements at King's Cross and | :50:27. | :50:40. | |
Saint Pancras to realise the potential. How do you want | :50:41. | :50:47. | |
passengers under this revised plan to get from high-speed to at Euston | :50:48. | :50:57. | |
to high-speed one at Saint Pancras if they go to France? We want to | :50:58. | :51:04. | |
link them. My instinct is that there is a substantial and effective way | :51:05. | :51:08. | |
to do it, but I think David Higgins was right to say that the proposal | :51:09. | :51:12. | |
on the table was not worth doing. It didn't come up to standard. The | :51:13. | :51:17. | |
train was going to proceed at 2 mph, huge disruption to Camden | :51:18. | :51:24. | |
market and much of the community, disruption to freight traffic and | :51:25. | :51:29. | |
passenger traffic. Has it been ruled out that over land route now? Yes, | :51:30. | :51:37. | |
and he made the right decision. There has to be a quick way to get | :51:38. | :51:42. | |
to Euston, and you can do that with the Crossrail, travel -- | :51:43. | :52:00. | |
travelators... What do you think? It proves one of the golden rules of | :52:01. | :52:05. | |
politics, if you want something stopped, make sure Boris Johnson's | :52:06. | :52:10. | |
father lives in the heart of it The idea of a travelator is bonkers | :52:11. | :52:19. | |
There has to be a mechanism of bringing the two together, and | :52:20. | :52:24. | |
whether that is an extra line on London Underground or whatever, it | :52:25. | :52:33. | |
is possible. The answer is that you be trading at Wormwood Scrubs, it | :52:34. | :52:42. | |
seems incredibly complicated. I cannot believe it is beyond the wit | :52:43. | :52:46. | |
of woman and man to work out some subterranean system of linking the | :52:47. | :52:51. | |
two together, that is the answer, not to destroy the ground level of | :52:52. | :52:56. | |
Camden. Lord Heseltine is saying that he thinks people should be | :52:57. | :53:01. | |
compensated along the route above market value, what do you say? We | :53:02. | :53:06. | |
have done a property consultation and should be coming back with that | :53:07. | :53:10. | |
response fairly soon. I don't want to pre-empt that but we have always | :53:11. | :53:15. | |
said we should be generous in compensation. Now the rest of the | :53:16. | :53:25. | |
political news in 60 seconds. Nearly 5000 children aged between | :53:26. | :53:30. | |
ten and 16 have been strip-searched by the Metropolitan police over the | :53:31. | :53:33. | |
last five years, according to figures published this week. About a | :53:34. | :53:38. | |
third of them were subsequently released without charge. The mayor | :53:39. | :53:43. | |
has written to Theresa May in support of Metropolitan Police's bid | :53:44. | :53:47. | |
for water cannon to tackle extreme disorder. Boris Johnson said he had | :53:48. | :53:52. | |
been convinced the water cannon were needed and asked her to give it the | :53:53. | :53:56. | |
green light. The Government has announced plans to increase capacity | :53:57. | :54:07. | |
on the M4. It aims to reduce pollution by converting speed limits | :54:08. | :54:10. | |
and converting the hard shoulder into a traffic lane. Boris | :54:11. | :54:14. | |
Johnson's father has said Conservatives from outside | :54:15. | :54:17. | |
parliament should be allowed to stand for leadership at the party. | :54:18. | :54:22. | |
It has fuelled speculation about Boris Johnson's prospects. | :54:23. | :54:31. | |
Some are saying this could be a really tedious story that we return | :54:32. | :54:36. | |
to again and again, but let's do it anyway - Boris Johnson, should he | :54:37. | :54:41. | |
come back as an MP at the election, as David Cameron has said this week? | :54:42. | :54:47. | |
I have worked alongside Boris Johnson previously as a | :54:48. | :54:51. | |
Parliamentary colleague and I know that he brings vibrancy and colour. | :54:52. | :54:57. | |
The mayor has said he wants to serve out his term. I wouldn't like to put | :54:58. | :55:02. | |
money on it. He could stay on but if he wants to come back, that is a | :55:03. | :55:11. | |
decision for him. What do you reckon, Stephen? It will be out of a | :55:12. | :55:17. | |
job anyway come the next election. There is something contemptible | :55:18. | :55:21. | |
about this, we regard a constituency as a springboard back into | :55:22. | :55:26. | |
Parliament. The idea that there is a group of people somewhere in some | :55:27. | :55:31. | |
safe Tory seat who can be there to open the door for Boris to come | :55:32. | :55:36. | |
back. He is a marvellous man, but that is not what it is all about. | :55:37. | :55:44. | |
What about water cannon? I'm totally against water cannon. I have seen | :55:45. | :55:50. | |
them operated in Belfast. They work if you have a mob of people charging | :55:51. | :55:56. | |
towards you. So they wouldn't have worked in the riots. What do you | :55:57. | :56:05. | |
think? I have been to a training centre and seen how the water cannon | :56:06. | :56:11. | |
can be used for very significant disturbance. You think Theresa May | :56:12. | :56:15. | |
will say disturbance. You think Theresa May | :56:16. | :56:23. | |
decision, she will weigh up the factors. Andrew, back | :56:24. | :56:23. | |
The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the | :56:24. | :56:39. | |
people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum. | :56:40. | :56:44. | |
It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would | :56:45. | :56:49. | |
have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never | :56:50. | :56:59. | |
happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make | :57:00. | :57:01. | |
comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the | :57:02. | :57:04. | |
party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been | :57:05. | :57:08. | |
plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a | :57:09. | :57:11. | |
look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary | :57:12. | :57:14. | |
calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding! | :57:15. | :57:26. | |
I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister. | :57:27. | :57:33. | |
The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the | :57:34. | :57:38. | |
Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed | :57:39. | :57:42. | |
Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed | :57:43. | :57:48. | |
Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the | :57:49. | :57:54. | |
moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact | :57:55. | :58:00. | |
that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is | :58:01. | :58:04. | |
the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the | :58:05. | :58:13. | |
Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of | :58:14. | :58:17. | |
living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of | :58:18. | :58:22. | |
responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it. | :58:23. | :58:27. | |
He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a | :58:28. | :58:31. | |
giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that, | :58:32. | :58:38. | |
right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let me tell you | :58:39. | :58:42. | |
something else he mentioned, the fact the national debt has risen by | :58:43. | :58:51. | |
a third and George Osborne and David Cameron... They knew that before the | :58:52. | :58:54. | |
Budget. The borrowing figures were announced and Ed Miliband made | :58:55. | :59:00. | |
reference to those. There is not a lot of happiness on Labour | :59:01. | :59:05. | |
backbenchers about this, is there? And indeed not a lot of happiness in | :59:06. | :59:10. | |
the shadow cabinet. There is concern that Ed Miliband is on a journey to | :59:11. | :59:15. | |
remodel world capitalism whilst George Osborne is firing some love | :59:16. | :59:19. | |
bombs at Middle England by talking about freeing up the pensions market | :59:20. | :59:24. | |
and there is real nerves that what Ed Miliband is saying is not going | :59:25. | :59:28. | |
to be in tune with those middle income earners that the Labour Party | :59:29. | :59:35. | |
has got to attract if they are going to win the general election. When | :59:36. | :59:42. | |
Rachel Reeves used the medium of Radio 4 to announce you were broadly | :59:43. | :59:45. | |
in favour of the pension reforms announced by the Chancellor on | :59:46. | :59:49. | |
Friday night, was that a result of a decision taken by the shadow | :59:50. | :59:59. | |
cabinet? Is With annuities, they are a very old-fashioned product. There | :00:00. | :00:06. | |
are some serious questions which need to be addressed. Was that the | :00:07. | :00:13. | |
result of a Shadow Cabinet decision? We have not had a Shadow | :00:14. | :00:18. | |
Cabinet since the budget. We all want to make sure that we understand | :00:19. | :00:22. | |
the point about flexibility. No one is arguing with that. There are some | :00:23. | :00:27. | |
serious concerns. Let me give you a couple of examples. This is | :00:28. | :00:31. | |
something the Chancellor has done, he claims, for reasons of freedom | :00:32. | :00:36. | |
and flexibility. Is it a coincidence he is grabbing quite a lot of tax | :00:37. | :00:39. | |
from pensioners early on to plug a hole which is necessary because the | :00:40. | :00:47. | |
deficit has not gone down? Forgive me for being slightly cynical about | :00:48. | :00:53. | |
motives. For or against it? We need to have safeguards for protection of | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
pensioners. What will it do for the annuity market if most people still | :00:59. | :01:01. | |
want to have a steadying come for a third of their lives? -- steady | :01:02. | :01:10. | |
income. What does Labour have to do to get it show back on the road The | :01:11. | :01:18. | |
question is, how do people feel How many people will still not be | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
feeling better by the next election? Wages may be rising slightly but not | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
for a large and significant number of people. They were just looking at | :01:26. | :01:31. | |
the YouGov poll. If you look at the middle to low earners, they are | :01:32. | :01:34. | |
overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can Labour get those people out to vote? | :01:35. | :01:40. | |
They are really hurting. There are plenty of them. The question is | :01:41. | :01:44. | |
whether people are optimistic because they see figures as if they | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
look as if they are on the up or whether they vote according to how | :01:49. | :01:53. | |
they feel, which will still be very far behind. Cost of living has been | :01:54. | :01:58. | |
a major mantra from Labour. That's that this chart shows how things are | :01:59. | :02:04. | |
beginning to change. What this shows is that, sometime this year, after a | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
long time at which average earnings trailed inflation, they now overtake | :02:10. | :02:13. | |
it in the run-up to the election and they stay there for the forecast | :02:14. | :02:20. | |
period. What do you now do if your cost of living mantra is running out | :02:21. | :02:26. | |
of steam? I am not sure that, for most people, they will recognise the | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
sense that suddenly things will be getting better. Particularly the | :02:31. | :02:33. | |
younger generation are really feeling quite down about the | :02:34. | :02:40. | |
pressures they are facing to make ends meet. You can see the lines are | :02:41. | :02:46. | |
exaggerated because the Y axis on the side starts quite high up. It | :02:47. | :02:51. | |
does not start at zero. The other statistic from the OBR is that we | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
will not be getting back to the point where wages are exceeding | :02:56. | :02:59. | |
prices from the pre-banking crisis period until late 2017. There are | :03:00. | :03:07. | |
some really serious pressures that people are under. What they wanted | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
was a budget that would address concerns and, for the vast majority | :03:12. | :03:16. | |
of people, they will have heard the statement by George Osborne and | :03:17. | :03:22. | |
think, how is it really help them now? It did not address it. It is | :03:23. | :03:30. | |
clear that by 2015, average living standards will probably not have | :03:31. | :03:35. | |
returned to where they were in 2010. Average wages will not have | :03:36. | :03:39. | |
done that. On the other hand, the chart shows the sense of direction | :03:40. | :03:43. | |
is moving in the right way. Which one matters more with the | :03:44. | :03:49. | |
electorate? I suspect it is sense of direction. People sense of | :03:50. | :03:52. | |
prosperity does not need to be buoyant. It has to be something | :03:53. | :03:57. | |
worth preserving. We have to fear the all turn. That is what intrigued | :03:58. | :04:03. | |
me this week. People make too much of a fuss about the Parliamentary | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
response by Ed Miliband. People will forgive a bad day at the dispatch | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
box. What they will not forgive is the absence of a macro economic | :04:13. | :04:20. | |
mess. Labour have a very powerful message on living standards and lots | :04:21. | :04:24. | |
of popular, targeted interventions like the energy price freeze. You | :04:25. | :04:30. | |
can imagine they will be sufficiently nervous about that next | :04:31. | :04:35. | |
year. If living standards are not back to where they were, Labour can | :04:36. | :04:44. | |
say, are you better off now than when you were four years ago? The | :04:45. | :04:51. | |
reason why break and -- wallowed waken one that is because Jimmy | :04:52. | :05:03. | |
Carter mucked it up -- Ronald Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for | :05:04. | :05:11. | |
us and you will get 2 million homes. At the moment, the offer is very | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
modest. You need to find the money to do that. People need to | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
understand that housing is at the very heart of the economy, as well | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
as young people and their aspirations. At the moment, Labour | :05:24. | :05:30. | |
's offer is not spectacular in. If the focus group shows the cost of | :05:31. | :05:33. | |
living crisis have no longer has the attraction it did, what line do you | :05:34. | :05:39. | |
move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind people of the wasted years and the | :05:40. | :05:42. | |
cost of living pressures they have been under. -- we must remind | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
people. We want a recovery which has low growth, low wage. A race to the | :05:50. | :05:58. | |
bottom. They want a recovery that is felt by everyone, shared and felt by | :05:59. | :06:05. | |
all. Now, here's an idea to twist your melon. Mark Berry, better known | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
as Bez, it says here he's a member of something called The Happy | :06:10. | :06:11. | |
Mondays, wants to stand for parliament. He's best known for | :06:12. | :06:15. | |
being in a band, and not doing very much, so he might fit in. Here he is | :06:16. | :06:20. | |
in action. And Bez joins us from our Salford | :06:21. | :06:48. | |
studio. Good to see you. Is this a genuine candidacy or are you | :06:49. | :06:56. | |
twisting my melon? Amazing how time flies when you're having fun! You | :06:57. | :07:05. | |
having fun doing this candidacy I am doing the job of the politicians | :07:06. | :07:09. | |
and standing up for the people and bringing attention to the horror of | :07:10. | :07:15. | |
fracking, which is a totally unsafe technology. There is no one in | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
mainstream politics who is discussing or saying anything about | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
it. It is an unsafe technology and it has been proven in America. You | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
see the process in America and the people out on the streets. The whole | :07:30. | :07:39. | |
atmosphere has been made toxic. These people are allowing it to | :07:40. | :07:44. | |
happen in the name of profit. This has been a Labour seat you are | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
fighting in Salford since 1945. It is a tough mountain. Supposing you | :07:51. | :07:56. | |
were to win, could you ever see yourself entering a coalition? With | :07:57. | :08:02. | |
a bit of luck I may be able to shame Labour politicians to do the job | :08:03. | :08:06. | |
properly and stand up for the rights of people. They are not and I am | :08:07. | :08:09. | |
having to do that job. All I am doing is causing debate and bringing | :08:10. | :08:15. | |
to attention the horror that is hanging on our doorsteps. It is not | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
only fracking but GM modified foods that they want to bring into this | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
country as well. Owen Paterson is one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying | :08:25. | :08:33. | |
is legalised bribery, by the way. It is run by the bankers. Basically, we | :08:34. | :08:38. | |
have to stop these monsters from getting into our country and turning | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
our land into a toxic waste. That is what I am trying to say. You are | :08:44. | :08:48. | |
raising the debate, as you are doing with us here. We do not really need | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
fracking. You have done that and you have talked about other things as | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
well. In terms of a new integrity, if you were to become an MP, would | :09:00. | :09:06. | |
you claim expenses? If I ever do get in charge, I would completely enter | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
the banking system and there would be expensive, but they would be like | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand | :09:20. | :09:25. | |
what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a | :09:29. | :09:36. | |
cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to | :09:37. | :09:40. | |
mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to | :09:46. | :09:54. | |
discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they | :09:55. | :10:03. | |
are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been | :10:10. | :10:15. | |
speaking to Salford councillors They are going to lend me their | :10:16. | :10:24. | |
support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles, | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our | :10:30. | :10:34. | |
doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You | :10:41. | :10:48. | |
shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for | :10:49. | :10:54. | |
giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one | :10:55. | :11:01. | |
thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics | :11:02. | :11:03. | |
it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of | :11:12. | :11:15. | |
the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives | :11:16. | :11:22. | |
the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel | :11:23. | :11:30. | |
Farage to a public, open debate about whether she we should be out | :11:31. | :11:37. | |
all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 200 , I | :11:38. | :11:48. | |
have taken part in 45% of votes in the European Parliament. Nigel | :11:49. | :11:55. | |
Farage has not tabled a single amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg | :11:56. | :12:03. | |
has only taken part in 22% of votes in the House of commons. You can | :12:04. | :12:10. | |
watch the debate at 7pm on the nd of April over on BBC Two. And for a | :12:11. | :12:22. | |
chance to be part of the studio audience on the night and put your | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
question to the two party leaders, e-mail the question you'd like to | :12:27. | :12:28. | |
ask to [email protected] or tweet it using the hashtag | :12:29. | :12:31. | |
#europedebate. And Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will be limbering up | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
this week with their first debate on LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going | :12:35. | :12:42. | |
to come out the best? I suspect Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
Nick Clegg as morally compromised, who has not asserted himself in | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
government. I do wonder about Nigel Farage, whether he is much better at | :12:54. | :12:57. | |
delivering a popular line and responding to the second question of | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
third question. Nick Clegg will win it hands over fist because he knows | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
this stuff. He is right. The evidence that he can produce about | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
what will happen if we pulled out of Europe will, I think, overwhelm | :13:11. | :13:18. | |
Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They will both be winners because you | :13:19. | :13:25. | |
will have the rare sight of the pro-European saying he likes the | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
European Union. That is unlike Eurosceptics who tie themselves up | :13:30. | :13:35. | |
in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and one for both. There you go. Here is | :13:36. | :13:49. | |
a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is | :13:50. | :13:52. | |
on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day this week, I'll be back here next | :13:53. | :13:55. | |
week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the | :13:56. | :13:57. | |
Sunday Politics. | :13:58. | :14:03. |