14/09/2014 Sunday Politics London


14/09/2014

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics, coming to you live from Edinburgh.

:00:37.:00:42.

Terrorists who use the name Islamic State have carried out

:00:43.:00:44.

their threat to murder the British aid worker, David Haines.

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They released a video late last night, showing a masked man

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beheading Mr Haines, who was taken captive in Syria 18 months ago.

:00:57.:01:02.

The jihadist group have already beheaded two American journalists.

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Now it's threatening the life of a second British hostage.

:01:05.:01:06.

David Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil.

:01:07.:01:09.

As we speak he's chairing a meeting of the Cabinet's COBRA

:01:10.:01:11.

President Obama said the US stood shoulder to shoulder

:01:12.:01:15.

Alex Salmond says Scotland "stands on the cusp of history" as

:01:16.:01:23.

he predicts a historic and substantial victory in

:01:24.:01:25.

As the latest polls show the two sides neck and neck,

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I'll ask Yes campaigner and socialist Tommy Sheridan about his

:01:34.:01:35.

And after last week's last-minute interventions from Gordon Brown

:01:36.:01:43.

David Cameron, Ed Miliband and big business, I'll ask

:01:44.:01:45.

pro-unionist George Galloway whether it's enough to win over waverers.

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In London, Boris Johnson moves a step closer back to Parliament. Is

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it a lame-duck administration? Late last night, as most folk were

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preparing for bed, news broke that Islamic State extremists had carried

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out their threat to murder the The group released a video, similar

:02:16.:02:18.

to the ones in which two American journalists were decapitated,

:02:19.:02:22.

showing a masked man apparently beheading Mr Haines who was taken

:02:23.:02:24.

captive in Syria last year. The terrorist,

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who has a southern British accent, also threatened the life

:02:29.:02:31.

of a second hostage from the UK Mr Haines is

:02:32.:02:35.

the third Westerner to be killed His family have paid tribute to

:02:36.:02:37.

his humanitarian work; they say he David Cameron described the murder

:02:38.:02:42.

as an act of pure evil, and said his heart went out to Mr Haines

:02:43.:02:49.

family, who had shown extraordinary Mr Cameron went on to say,

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"We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers

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and ensure they face justice, Mr Haines was born in England

:03:02.:03:04.

and brought up in Scotland. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond

:03:05.:03:08.

condemned the killing on the Marr Well, it's an act of unspeakable

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barbarism that we have seen. Obviously our condolences go to the

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family members of David Haynes who have borne this with such fortitude

:03:31.:03:32.

in recent months -- David Alex Salmond was also asked

:03:33.:03:39.

whether he supported military action Haines there is no reason to believe

:03:40.:03:48.

whatsoever that China or Russia or any country will see their will to

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deal with this barbarism. There is a will for effective, international,

:03:58.:04:00.

legal action but it must come in that fashion, and I would urge that

:04:01.:04:06.

to be a consideration to develop a collective response to what is a

:04:07.:04:08.

threat to humanity. Our security correspondent

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Gordon Corera joins me now Gordon, as we speak, the Cobra

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emergency meeting is meeting yet again. It meets a lot these days. I

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would suggest that the options facing this committee and Mr Cameron

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are pretty limited. That's right. I think they are extremely limited.

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They have been all along in these hostage situations. We know, for

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instance, that British government policy is not to pay ransom is to

:04:41.:04:44.

kidnappers. Other Europeans states are thought to have done so to get

:04:45.:04:48.

hostages released, and also not to make substantive policy concessions

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to the groups, so while there might be contact, there won't be a lot of

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options left. We know the US in the past has looked at rescue missions

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and in July on operation to free the hostages, landing at the oil

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facility in Syria but finding no one there. If you look at the options,

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they are not great. That is the difficult situation which Cobra will

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have been discussing the last hour. Does this make it more likely,

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because it might have the direction the government was going in any way,

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that we join with the Americans in perhaps the regional allies in air

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strikes against Islamic State, not just in Iraq, but also in Syria We

:05:37.:05:42.

heard from President Obama outlining his strategy against Islamic State

:05:43.:05:45.

last week when he talked about building a coalition, about

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authorising air strikes. And training troops. We are still

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waiting to hear what exact role the UK will play in that. We know it

:05:56.:06:02.

will play a role because it has been arming the fishmonger forces but the

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question is, will it actually conduct military strikes in Iraq --

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arming the passion are there. We have not got a clear answer from

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government and that is something where they are ours to discuss what

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was around the table. It's possible we might learn some more today as a

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result of the Cobra meeting, but I think the government will be wanting

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to not be seen to suddenly rushed to a completely different policy as a

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result of one incident, however terrible it is. Whether it hardens

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their reserve -- resolved to play more active role in the coalition,

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that's possible, but we have to wait see to get the detail. -- wait and

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see. What the whole country would like to see would be British and

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American special forces going in and getting these guys. I think that

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would unite the nation. But that is very difficult, isn't it? It is As

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you saw with a rescue mission a few months ago, the problem is getting

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actionable intelligence on the ground at a particular moment. The

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theory is that the group of kidnappers are moving the hostages

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may be even every or few days, so you need intelligence and quickly

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and then you need to be able to get the team onto the ground into that

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time frame. That is clearly a possibility and something they will

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be looking at, but it certainly challenging, particularly when you

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have a group like this operating within its own state, effectively,

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and knowing that other people are looking very hard for it and doing

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everything they can to hide. Gordon, thank you very much.

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Clegg dropped everything and headed to Scotland when a poll last Sunday

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gave the YES vote its first ever lead in this prolonged referendum

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If their reaction looked like panic, that's because it was.

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Until last weekend, though the polls had been narrowing,

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the consensus was still that NO would carry the day.

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The new consensus is that it's too close to call.

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If we look back at the beginning of the year, public opinion in Scotland

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was fairly settled. The no campaign had a commanding lead across the

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opinion polls, excluding the undecided voters. At one point, at

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the end of last year, an average of 63% backed the no campaign and only

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37% supported a yes vote. As we move into 2014 and up to this week, you

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can see a clear trend emerging as the lead for the no campaign gets

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narrower and narrower and the average of the most recent polls has

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the contest hanging in the balance. There was a poll a week ago that put

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the Yes campaign in the lead for the first time, 51% against 49%, but

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that lead was not reflected in the other polls last week. For polls

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were published last night, one by Salvation, for the macro-2 campaign

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-- Better Together campaign, and there was another that gave a one

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percentage point different. ICM have the yes campaign back in the lead at

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54% and the no campaign at 46%, but their sample size was 705 Scottish

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adults, smaller than usual. Another suggests that the contest remains on

:09:34.:09:41.

a knife edge with 49.4% against 50.6%. When fed into the poll of

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polls the figures average out with yes at 49% and polls -- no at 5 %.

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But some people think 18% are undecided, and it is how they vote

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gets -- when they get to the polling booths that could make all the

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difference. campaigner and Respect Party MP

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George Galloway. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Big

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business, big oil, big banks, the Tories, the Orange order, all

:10:10.:10:12.

against Scottish independence. You sure you are on right side? Yes

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because the interests of working people are in staying together. This

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is a troubled moment in a marriage, a very long marriage, in which some

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good things and bad things have been achieved together. And there is no

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doubt that the crockery is being thrown around the house of the

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minute. But I believe that the underlying interests of working

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people are on working on the relationship rather than divorce. I

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have been divorced. It's a very messy, acrimonious, bitter affair

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and it's particularly bad for the children will stop that's why I am

:10:46.:10:49.

here. You talk about working people, and particularly Scottish working

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people, they seem to have concluded that the social democracy they want

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to create cannot now be done in a UK context. Why should they not have a

:10:59.:11:05.

shot of going it alone? Because the opposite will happen. Separation

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will cause a race to the bottom in taxation. Alex Salmond has already

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announced he will cut the taxes on companies, corporation tax, down to

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3% hello whatever it is in the rest of these islands. And business will

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only be attracted to come here, country of 5 million people on if

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there is low regulation, low public expenditure, low levels of taxation

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for them will stop you cannot have Scandinavian social democracy on

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Texan levels of taxation. The British government, as will be, the

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rest of the UK, they will race Alex Salmond to the bottom. If he cuts it

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by three, they will cut it by four. And so on. So whether some people

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cannot see it clearly yet or not, the interests of the working people

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on both sides of the border would be gravely damaged by separation. Let's

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take the interest of the working people. As you know, as well as

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anyone, the coalition is in fermenting both a series of cuts and

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reforms in welfare, and labour, Westminster Labour, has only limited

:12:09.:12:13.

plans to reverse any of that. Surely if you want to preserve the welfare

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state as it is, independence is the way to do it. For the reasons I just

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explain, I don't believe that. But Ed Miliband will be along in a

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minute. He will be along in May The polls indicate... They say he is

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only four or 5%, that is the average. Like the referendum, the

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next general election could be nip and tuck. I don't, myself, think

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that the time of David Cameron as Prime Minister is for much longer. I

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think there will be a Labour government in the spring and the

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Labour government in London and a stronger Scottish Parliament, super

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Devo Max, that is now on the table. That is the best arrangement of

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people in the country. But the people of Scotland surely cannot

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base a decision on independence on your feeling that Labour might win

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the next general election. It is my feeling. When the Tories were beaten

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on the bedroom tax last week in the house, it was written all over the

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faces of the government side not only that they were headed for

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defeat, but probably a massive fishy -- Fisher. I think the race to the

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bottom that I have proper size will mean that the welfare state will be

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a distant memory quite soon. The cuts and the run on the Scottish

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economy here in Edinburgh, the financial services industry, that

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will be gravely damage. The Ministry of Defence jobs in Scotland

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decimated, probably ended, more or less. It will be a time of cuts and

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austerity, maybe super austerity in an independent Scotland. You

:14:03.:14:06.

mentioned defence. What about nuclear weapons? The Tories and

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Labour will keep them. You are against them. Surely the only way to

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be rid of them in Scotland is by independence. But you are not rid of

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them by telling them down the river. The danger would be the same --

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telling them down the river. The danger would be the same. Nuclear

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radiation does not respect Alex Salmond's national boundaries. They

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would be committed to immediately joining NATO, which is bristling

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with nuclear weapons and is what -- involved in wars across the

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Atlantic. So anyone looking for a peace option will have to elect a

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government in Britain as a whole that will get rid of nuclear weapons

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and get out of military entanglements. We are in one again

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now. I have been up the whole night, till 5am, dealing with some of the

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consequences and implications of the grave international matter that you

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opened the show with. David Haines and the fate of the hostage still in

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their hands. There are many other hostages as well. And there are many

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people dying who are neither British nor American. I have, somehow, been

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drawn into this matter. And it showed me, again, that the world is

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interdependent. It is absolutely riven with division and hatred, and

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this is the worst possible time to be opting out of the world to set up

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a small mini-state on the promises of Alex Salmond of social democracy

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funded by Texan taxes. Let's, for the sake of the next question,

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assume that everything you have told us is true. Why is your side

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squandering a 20 point lead? I will have a great deal to say

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about that, whatever the result This is very much a Scottish Labour

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project, is that not a condemnation of Scottish Labour? It is

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potentially on its deathbed. The country breaking up, the principal

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responsibility will be on them. And the pitiful, absolutely pitiful job

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that has been made of defending a 300-year-old relationship in this

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island by the Scottish Labour leadership is really terrible for me

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to behold, even though I'm no longer one of them. I don't know how they

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are going to get out of this deathbed. Do you agree that if this

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referendum is lost by your side it will be because traditional

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working-class Labour voters, particularly in the west of

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Scotland, have abundant Labour and decided to vote for independence?

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Without a doubt, the number of Labour voters intending to vote yes

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is disturbingly high. Even just months ago during the European

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Parliament elections, swathes of people who didn't vote SNP will be

:17:31.:17:35.

voting yes on Thursday. That is a grave squandering of a great legacy

:17:36.:17:41.

of Scottish Labour history, which history will decree as

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unforgivable. If Labour is to get out of its deathbed in Scotland it

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will have to become Labour again. Real Labour again. I am ready to

:17:55.:17:59.

help them with that. My goodness, they need help with it. I wonder if

:18:00.:18:07.

it isn't just a failure of Labour in Scotland. People all over Britain

:18:08.:18:12.

are increasingly fed up with the Westminster system, but it is only

:18:13.:18:16.

the Scots who currently have the chance to break free from it, so why

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shouldn't they? That is exactly right. They see a parliament of

:18:22.:18:27.

expenses cheats led by Lord snooty and the Bullingdon club elite,

:18:28.:18:33.

carrying through austerity for many but not for themselves and they are

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repulsed by it. They need change, but you can go backwards and call it

:18:39.:18:43.

change but it will be worse than the situation you have now. A lot of

:18:44.:18:49.

Scottish people don't buy that. It is a big gamble. If I were poised to

:18:50.:18:56.

put my family's life savings on the roulette table in Las Vegas, my wife

:18:57.:19:01.

would not be scaremongering if she pointed out the potential

:19:02.:19:05.

consequences if I'd lost. She would not be negative by telling me that

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is my children's money I am risking. If I jumped off this roof it would

:19:11.:19:14.

change my point of view, but it would be worse than the point of

:19:15.:19:19.

view I have now. There is another issue here because the Scots are

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being asked to gamble on the Westminster parties, which they are

:19:24.:19:30.

already suspicious of, of delivering home rule. Alistair Darling could

:19:31.:19:35.

not even tell me if Ed Balls had signed off on more income tax powers

:19:36.:19:40.

for Scotland, so that is a gamble for the Scots. I feel the British

:19:41.:19:44.

state has had such a shake out of all this that they would be beyond

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idiots, they would be insane now to risk all of this flaring up again

:19:51.:19:56.

because whatever happens, if we win on Thursday, it is going to be

:19:57.:20:02.

narrowly. It will be a severe fissure in Scotland. A great deal of

:20:03.:20:07.

unpleasantness that we are already aware of. That could turn but we're

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still. It would be dicing with death, playing with fire, to let

:20:14.:20:20.

Scottish people down after Thursday if we narrowly win. If you narrowly

:20:21.:20:24.

win, and if there are moves to this home rule Mr Brown has been talking

:20:25.:20:30.

about, England hasn't spoken yet on this. Whilst England would probably

:20:31.:20:37.

not want to stop -- stop Scotland getting this, they would say, what

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about us? It could delay the whole procedure. It is necessary, you are

:20:44.:20:51.

right. England should have home rule, and I screamed at Scottish

:20:52.:20:56.

Labour MPs going into the vote to introduce tuition fees in England. I

:20:57.:21:03.

told them this was a constitutional monstrosity, as well as a crime

:21:04.:21:07.

against young people in England It was risking everything. We are led

:21:08.:21:14.

by idiots. Our leaders are not James Bonds, they are Austin powers. We

:21:15.:21:22.

need to change the leadership, not rip up a 300-year-old marriage.

:21:23.:21:23.

Thank you. It's been one of the longest and

:21:24.:21:28.

hardest fought political campaigns in history, with Alex Salmond firing

:21:29.:21:31.

the starting gun on the referendum Adam's been stitching together

:21:32.:21:34.

the key moments of the campaign It is the other thing drawing people

:21:35.:21:49.

to the Scottish parliament, the new great tapestry of Scotland. It is

:21:50.:21:55.

the story of battles won and lost, Scottish moments, British moments,

:21:56.:22:01.

famous Scots, and not so famous Scots. There is even a panel

:22:02.:22:07.

dedicated to the rise of the SNP. Alex Salmond's majority in the

:22:08.:22:10.

elections in 2011 made the referendum inevitable. It became

:22:11.:22:15.

reality when he and David Cameron did a deal in Edinburgh one year

:22:16.:22:21.

later. The Scottish Government set out its plans for independence in

:22:22.:22:25.

this book, just a wish list to some, a sacred text to others. This White

:22:26.:22:34.

Paper is the most detailed improvements that any people have

:22:35.:22:39.

ever been offered in the world as a basis for becoming an independent

:22:40.:22:44.

country. The no campaign, called Better Together, united the Tories,

:22:45.:22:50.

Labour and the Lib Dems under the leadership of Alistair Darling. Then

:22:51.:22:54.

the Scottish people were bombarded with two years of photo

:22:55.:22:57.

opportunities and a lot of campaigning. For the no campaign,

:22:58.:23:03.

Jim Murphy went on tour but took a break when he was egged and his

:23:04.:23:07.

events were often hijacked by yes campaigners who were accused of

:23:08.:23:13.

being intimidating. In turn, they accused the no campaign of using

:23:14.:23:17.

scare tactics. Things heated up when the TV dinner -- during the TV

:23:18.:23:25.

debate. Fever pitch was reached one week ago when one poll suggested the

:23:26.:23:31.

yes campaign was in the lead for the first time. The three main

:23:32.:23:36.

Westminster leaders ditched PMQs to head north. I think people can feel

:23:37.:23:40.

it is like a general election, that you make a decision and five years

:23:41.:23:44.

later you can make another decision if you are fed up with the Tories,

:23:45.:23:48.

give them a kick... This is totally different. And Labour shelved not

:23:49.:23:58.

quite 100 MPs onto the train, Alex Salmond took a helicopter instead.

:23:59.:24:02.

This is about the formation of the NHS. A big theme of the yes campaign

:24:03.:24:08.

is that changes to the NHS in Linden -- in England would lead to

:24:09.:24:19.

privatisation in Scotland. Alex Salmond's plan to share the pound

:24:20.:24:25.

was trashed by big names. There were other big question is, what would

:24:26.:24:29.

happen to military hardware like Trident based on the Clyde? Would an

:24:30.:24:34.

independent Scotland be able to join the EU? And how much oil was left

:24:35.:24:39.

underneath the North Sea? This panel is about famous Scots, we

:24:40.:24:44.

have Annie Lennox, Stephen Hendry, Sean Connery. I cannot see Gordon

:24:45.:24:52.

Brown. These are big changes we are proposing to strengthen the Scottish

:24:53.:24:56.

parliament, but at the same time to stay as part of the UK. A regular on

:24:57.:25:01.

the campaign, he was front and centre when things got close,

:25:02.:25:05.

unveiling a timetable for more devolution. People wondered whether

:25:06.:25:10.

Ed Miliband was able to reach the parts of Scotland Labour leader

:25:11.:25:15.

should reach, and at Westminster some Tories pondered whether David

:25:16.:25:18.

Cameron could stay as prime minister if there was a yes vote. This

:25:19.:25:22.

tapestry is nonpartisan so it is a good place to get away from it all

:25:23.:25:27.

but it is crystallising voters' views. Look at what we have

:25:28.:25:39.

contributed to Great Britain, and I am British and I hope to be staying

:25:40.:25:42.

British. This is what people from Scotland have done, taken to the

:25:43.:25:45.

rest of the world in many cases and I think I am going to vote yes. I am

:25:46.:25:49.

so inspired by it. It has certainly inspired me to have a go at

:25:50.:25:53.

stitching. How long do you think it would take to do the whole thing? I

:25:54.:26:00.

would say to put aside maybe 30 hours of stitching. Maybe by the

:26:01.:26:04.

time I am done, we will know more about how the fabric of the nation

:26:05.:26:05.

might be changing. And I've been joined

:26:06.:26:09.

by yes campaigner and convenor of Scotland's Solidarity socialist

:26:10.:26:12.

party, Tommy Sheridan. An economy dependent on oil, the

:26:13.:26:24.

Queen as head of state, membership of the world 's premier nuclear

:26:25.:26:29.

alliance of capitalist nations is that the socialist Scotland you are

:26:30.:26:40.

fighting for? No, that is the SNP's prospectus and they are entitled to

:26:41.:26:44.

put forward their vision, but it is not mine or that of the majority of

:26:45.:26:49.

Scotland. We will find out in two years. On Thursday we are not voting

:26:50.:26:55.

for a political party, we are voting for our freedom as a country. That

:26:56.:27:01.

is why people are going to vote yes on Thursday. A lot of people are

:27:02.:27:04.

voting for what you call freedom because they think it will be more

:27:05.:27:11.

Scotland. You have already got free prescriptions, no tuition fees, free

:27:12.:27:15.

care for the elderly. You might not in future have that if public

:27:16.:27:19.

spending is overdependent on the price of oil, over which you have no

:27:20.:27:24.

control. We don't have to worry about one single resource, we

:27:25.:27:28.

already have 20% of the fishing stock in Europe. We already have 25%

:27:29.:27:35.

of the wind, wave and solar power generation. We, as an independent

:27:36.:27:47.

country, have huge resources, natural resources but also people

:27:48.:27:51.

resources. We have five first-class universities, food and beverages

:27:52.:27:56.

industry which is the envy of the world. We have the ability to

:27:57.:28:00.

produce the resources on the revenues that won't just maintain

:28:01.:28:03.

the health service and education but it will develop health and

:28:04.:28:07.

education. I don't want to stand still, I want to redistribute

:28:08.:28:13.

wealth. But all of the projections of public spending for an

:28:14.:28:19.

independent Scotland show that to keep spending at the current level

:28:20.:28:24.

you need a strong price of oil and you are dependent on this commodity

:28:25.:28:29.

which goes up and down and sideways. That is a gamble. I have got to

:28:30.:28:34.

laugh because I have been told the most pessimistic is that in 40 years

:28:35.:28:39.

the oil is running out, panic stations! If you were told by the

:28:40.:28:45.

BBC you could only guarantee employment for the next 40 years you

:28:46.:28:50.

would be over the moon. I am talking about in the next five. You need 50%

:28:51.:28:57.

of your revenues to come from oil to continue spending and that is not a

:28:58.:29:02.

guarantee. Of course it is, the minimum survival of the oil is 0

:29:03.:29:08.

years. Please get your viewers to go onto the Internet and look at the

:29:09.:29:23.

website called oilandgas.com. The West Coast has 100 years of oil to

:29:24.:29:30.

be extracted. It hasn't been done because in 1981 Michael Heseltine

:29:31.:29:33.

said we cannot extract the oil because we have Trident going up and

:29:34.:29:40.

down there. Let's get rid of Trident and extract the oil. You are a trot

:29:41.:29:50.

right, why have you failed to learn his famous dictum, socialism in one

:29:51.:29:55.

country is impossible. Revolutions and change are not just single

:29:56.:30:00.

event. What will happen here on Thursday is a democratic revolution.

:30:01.:30:05.

The people are fed up of being patronised and lied to by this mob

:30:06.:30:10.

in Westminster who have used and abused us for far too long. The

:30:11.:30:16.

smaller people now have a voice What about socialism in one

:30:17.:30:19.

country? Mr Trotsky warned you against that. The no campaign

:30:20.:30:29.

represents the past. The yes campaign represents the future. That

:30:30.:30:33.

is the truth of the matter. What we are going to do in an independent

:30:34.:30:38.

Scotland is tackle inequality and a scourge of low pay. If we vote no on

:30:39.:30:46.

Thursday, there will be more low pay on Friday, more poverty and food

:30:47.:30:51.

banks on Friday. I'm not going to be lectured by these big banks, you

:30:52.:30:57.

vote less -- yes and we will leave the country! The food banks will be

:30:58.:31:06.

the ones closing. If you got your way, for the type of Scotland you

:31:07.:31:11.

would like to see, state control of business, nationalisation of the

:31:12.:31:16.

Manx, the roads to Carlisle will be clogged with people

:31:17.:31:24.

Yes, hoping to come into Scotland, because in their hearts, the

:31:25.:31:31.

Scottish people know that England want to see the people having the

:31:32.:31:36.

bottle. The working class people in Liverpool, Newcastle, outside of

:31:37.:31:39.

London, they are saying good on the jocks that are taking on big

:31:40.:31:43.

business. When we are independent and investing in social housing the

:31:44.:31:47.

people of England will say, we can do that as well, and they will

:31:48.:31:52.

rediscover the radical tradition. In wanting to build socialism in one

:31:53.:31:56.

country, it really means you are fighting for the few, rather than

:31:57.:31:59.

the many. You are bailing out of the socialist Battle for Britain. You

:32:00.:32:03.

think it will be easier to make it work. Think globally, act locally

:32:04.:32:12.

and we will build socialism in Scotland but I wanted across the

:32:13.:32:15.

world. I won my brothers and sisters in England and Wales to be

:32:16.:32:20.

encouraged by what we do so they can reject the Westminster consensus as

:32:21.:32:23.

well -- I want. We had the three Stooges coming up to London, three

:32:24.:32:28.

millionaires united on one thing, austerity. Doesn't matter whether Ed

:32:29.:32:31.

Miliband wins the next election he said he would stick to the story

:32:32.:32:35.

spending cuts. Why vote for Ed Miliband? You wouldn't trust him to

:32:36.:32:41.

run a bath, not a country. Let's see if this is realistic, this great

:32:42.:32:45.

socialist vision. At the last Scottish election, the Socialist

:32:46.:32:49.

party got 8000 votes. The Conservatives got 30 times more

:32:50.:32:55.

votes. Where is the appetite in Scotland for your Marxist ideology

:32:56.:32:59.

question we might not win it. But do you know what, see in two years

:33:00.:33:02.

time. See when we have the Scottish general election. You won't -- you

:33:03.:33:17.

are saying you might win and you went to the Holyrood election and

:33:18.:33:23.

got 8000 Pope -- votes. The SNP won a democratic election and then won

:33:24.:33:26.

the 2011 election and you know why they won? Because they picked up the

:33:27.:33:30.

clothes that the Labour Party has thrown away. They picked up the

:33:31.:33:34.

close of social democracy and protecting the health service was --

:33:35.:33:42.

service. There are people in the SNP who believe in public ownership and

:33:43.:33:47.

people in the SNP who believe in the NHS should be written into a

:33:48.:33:49.

constitution as never for sale people in the the SNP that think the

:33:50.:33:54.

Royal mail should return to public ownership. That is there in black

:33:55.:33:58.

and white. Do you agree with George Galloway that this is potentially a

:33:59.:34:02.

crisis for Scottish Labour? Scottish Labour is finished. They are

:34:03.:34:07.

absolutely finished. George is right in that. Scottish Labour is

:34:08.:34:12.

finished. The irony of ironies is, Labour in Scotland has more chance

:34:13.:34:14.

of recovery in an independent Scotland that they have in a no

:34:15.:34:20.

vote. Labour in Scotland in an independent country will have to

:34:21.:34:24.

rediscover the traditions of Keir Hardie, the ideas of Jimmy Maxon,

:34:25.:34:28.

because right now, they are to the right of the SNP as a political

:34:29.:34:36.

party. I understand the socialist vision, but it is where the appetite

:34:37.:34:40.

is. And you look at the independence people in Scotland. One of your

:34:41.:34:46.

colleagues, Brian Souter, a man who fought against the appeal -- repeal

:34:47.:34:52.

of homosexual rights in Scotland. Another of your allies would seem to

:34:53.:34:55.

be Rupert Murdoch, the man who engineered your downfall. You say he

:34:56.:35:02.

engineered your downfall, but I m still here and his newspaper has

:35:03.:35:07.

closed. Whether it Rupert Murdoch, Brian Souter, or any other

:35:08.:35:11.

millionaire supporting independence, I couldn't care less. This boat on

:35:12.:35:15.

Thursday is not about millionaires, it is about the millions. -- this

:35:16.:35:21.

vote. We will not be abused any young -- longer. Would you rather

:35:22.:35:26.

not have their support? I couldn't care about the support. You know who

:35:27.:35:31.

is supporting the union. It is the unions of the big businesses, the

:35:32.:35:35.

BNP, UKIP, they are the ones who support it. You are giving me a

:35:36.:35:42.

stray that has wandered into the campaign and are you seriously going

:35:43.:35:46.

to argue with me that the establishment isn't united to try

:35:47.:35:50.

and save the union? That is what they are trying to be. The BBC, you

:35:51.:35:54.

have been a disgrace in your coverage of the campaign. Not you

:35:55.:35:57.

personally. You don't have editorial control. The BBC coverage,

:35:58.:36:03.

generally, has been a disgrace and the people. Oil and gas, go and look

:36:04.:36:08.

at that, why is that not feature. Why is the idea of 100 years of oil

:36:09.:36:12.

not featured in the campaign. Because the BBC does not want to see

:36:13.:36:16.

it. Are you getting in your excuses if you lose? You better be kidding.

:36:17.:36:21.

Is this the face of somebody looking to lose. We are going to win, 6 /40.

:36:22.:36:27.

Absolutely. There is a momentum that you guys are not seeing on the

:36:28.:36:32.

working-class housing estates. Working class people are fed up

:36:33.:36:36.

being taken for granted fed up with the lives of people dragging us into

:36:37.:36:45.

tax cuts, bedroom tax for the poor. They will have power on Thursday,

:36:46.:36:48.

and they will use it and vote for freedom. Are you happy with the way

:36:49.:36:53.

the BBC has treated you today? So far, yes. I have still not been

:36:54.:36:57.

offered a Coffey, but that might happen. That is an obvious example

:36:58.:37:02.

of our bias. Tommy, we will speak to you later with George Galloway.

:37:03.:37:15.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the week ahead, but first, the Sunday

:37:16.:37:16.

politics where you are. Andrew, thanks very much

:37:17.:37:25.

and welcome from us. I've been watching those exchanges

:37:26.:37:28.

here with Sadiq Khan for Labour and Stephen Hammond

:37:29.:37:31.

for the Conservatives, who'll be And we'll get back onto that

:37:32.:37:33.

Scottish question in just a moment. But just to say that a little later,

:37:34.:37:40.

we'll be considering what it means for London that it's mayor has been

:37:41.:37:44.

selected for a west London seat and now looks set for

:37:45.:37:47.

a return to parliament a full year Or is the appearance worse than

:37:48.:37:50.

the reality? It seems such a hugely

:37:51.:37:55.

significant political moment. But as the columnist Simon Jenkins

:37:56.:38:01.

wrote in the Standard this week would independence have much

:38:02.:38:04.

of an economic impact, directly Well, of course it would, but we are

:38:05.:38:21.

Better Together. As the country we pooled resources and culture. We

:38:22.:38:26.

pool the people who work in London. London has 300,000 Scottish people,

:38:27.:38:33.

and that would be a huge loss to London if part of the UK was to

:38:34.:38:38.

break. The bombs in the relationships we have in Scotland

:38:39.:38:42.

are huge. Around London this week, most of the town halls have been

:38:43.:38:47.

flying the flag as a gesture of solidarity -- the bombs in our

:38:48.:38:52.

relationship. Global resilient city that will just absorb any short term

:38:53.:38:58.

shock and do OK in the long run The one thing that we will agree on is

:38:59.:39:01.

what he has just said. We will be better together and it will be

:39:02.:39:10.

better if Scotland votes no. Why? I am asking about London, so why? A

:39:11.:39:15.

global city. In terms of the sheer impact on London, not a great deal,

:39:16.:39:20.

but the international consequences, some of the break-up for how we

:39:21.:39:26.

would have to look Parliament and some of the arrangements in

:39:27.:39:30.

welfare, but particularly for the Scots, and this is where Alex

:39:31.:39:35.

Salmond has been disingenuous, the currency would change. The pound in

:39:36.:39:40.

your pocket would not be the same and the Scots, a lot of Scottish

:39:41.:39:44.

people and that would have consequences will stop that would

:39:45.:39:49.

have short-term consequences because international markets would look at

:39:50.:39:55.

disruption. Would less of the taxation raised here go north? Let

:39:56.:39:59.

me give you an example of a difference it would make. He said he

:40:00.:40:03.

would recall -- reduce corporation tax then. We are keen to have

:40:04.:40:10.

high-speed trains going to Scotland because companies in London say they

:40:11.:40:13.

want to have faster links with Scotland, but if it is part of

:40:14.:40:20.

Scotland being part of the UK. It's all very well for Alex Salmond to

:40:21.:40:23.

talk about 3% reduction in corporation tax, but would have to

:40:24.:40:27.

have another Bank of Scotland that would have reserves, and the only

:40:28.:40:30.

way to build the reserves is to increase taxes on Scottish business

:40:31.:40:31.

or people. So, Boris Johnson's been selected to

:40:32.:40:36.

contest the seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip for the Conservatives

:40:37.:40:39.

at the election next Spring. It's a safe seat,

:40:40.:40:41.

and the presumption is he'll win But for a year after that he'll stay

:40:42.:40:44.

on as mayor too, until the next Andrew Cryan has this report, which

:40:45.:40:49.

contains some flash photography I'm very pleased to say that the

:40:50.:41:04.

Oxbridge Conservative Association have done me the honour of picking

:41:05.:41:11.

me to fight the election in 236 days. Boris Johnson says there's no

:41:12.:41:20.

harm in running the MP and doing the job errors the same time. He didn't

:41:21.:41:26.

always think that, as back in 2 08 he resigned immediately from his

:41:27.:41:31.

seat in Henley. And he said that the made about Londoners to lead them

:41:32.:41:34.

out of recession. Keeping that promise cannot be combined in

:41:35.:41:37.

another capacity. So the question is, was he right when he said it

:41:38.:41:42.

back in 2012, or is he right when he says now it's not a problem at all

:41:43.:41:46.

question the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary, the Home

:41:47.:41:50.

Secretary, they have massive jobs and are a constituent MP. I was the

:41:51.:41:53.

government Chief Whip. Nothing in the same category, but it takes up

:41:54.:42:00.

time. Indeed, it won't be the first time the Mayor of London has also

:42:01.:42:03.

been an MP at the same time. It is exactly what Ken Livingstone did for

:42:04.:42:07.

his first year in office. It was only a year till the general

:42:08.:42:13.

election. Under the rules then, if there was a by-election, Labour

:42:14.:42:18.

selected candidate, not the local party, so I sat it out and my local

:42:19.:42:24.

party selected a really good local councillor, not some ghastly new

:42:25.:42:29.

Labour clone. I left my casework office and I popped in for about

:42:30.:42:32.

four crucial votes where they counted. What is the experience of

:42:33.:42:38.

the only other man to be Mayor of London? Sunday politics wanted to

:42:39.:42:42.

know what people who have been an MP thought, so we asked every member of

:42:43.:42:45.

Parliament in London whether they thought his ability to do his

:42:46.:42:47.

current job could now become demise. The results that came back

:42:48.:42:52.

almost entirely split on party lines, with 14 MPs saying it was a

:42:53.:42:57.

problem, and ten saying it wasn t. The yes camp were all labour, along

:42:58.:43:01.

with two Liberal Democrats. The no camp were all Conservative apart

:43:02.:43:05.

from two Labour Party members. The views of MPs are one thing. The

:43:06.:43:09.

people who will actually decided Boris Johnson gets to do both jobs

:43:10.:43:12.

are the voters of Oxbridge and South Ruislip. Can you be Mayor of London

:43:13.:43:17.

and the name the same time question mark -- Oxbridge. Possibly. It might

:43:18.:43:23.

conflict though. It's a lot of responsibility. I have liked what he

:43:24.:43:28.

has done with the bikes on the new train system. He has put in a lot of

:43:29.:43:32.

thought. I think he would look after us here as well as London. I think

:43:33.:43:36.

you should be Prime Minister and Mayor of London at the same time. So

:43:37.:43:40.

perhaps rather than worrying about whether Boris Johnson could be the

:43:41.:43:44.

Mayor of London and an MP as well, could we be asking if he could do

:43:45.:43:49.

three jobs? He is an ambitious man, and if he gets back into Parliament

:43:50.:43:53.

it would be surprising if he did not want to be the leader of the

:43:54.:43:56.

Conservative Party, which begs the question of how soon a vacancy

:43:57.:44:00.

occurs, and whether it occurs immediately after the next general

:44:01.:44:04.

election. If that happened, and he stood and he became Conservative

:44:05.:44:09.

Party leader he would be opposition leader, presumably, and Mayor of

:44:10.:44:13.

London at the same time. On Friday, the Mayor of London refused to rule

:44:14.:44:16.

out doing three jobs at once. You're not going to be a minister or on a

:44:17.:44:21.

select committee? You're not going to stand for leader of the

:44:22.:44:25.

opposition and do the two jobs as well question you are asking a lot

:44:26.:44:32.

of hypothetical questions there Step one, act one, scene one, of a

:44:33.:44:37.

long process. What I have to do now is have a lot of talks with people

:44:38.:44:45.

they -- here, so people get to know the association. But I know it quite

:44:46.:44:48.

well already because I spent six years of representing the area

:44:49.:44:55.

anyway. There is a lot of digging in to be done. The Mayor of London

:44:56.:45:01.

compare the scenes on Friday to the beginning of the play. Whether it

:45:02.:45:04.

turns out to be a tragedy, comedy, or a great history, remains to be

:45:05.:45:06.

seen. We invited both the Mayor

:45:07.:45:10.

and his Chief of Staff to join us on Stephen Hammond, first off, why is

:45:11.:45:24.

he coming back now before he has finished his mayoral term? There is

:45:25.:45:29.

unlikely to be in a general election for five years. But overwhelmingly,

:45:30.:45:34.

they recognise he has been a great Mayor in London. Crime down 17% we

:45:35.:45:39.

got the money to make sure corporate council taxes down. It's not

:45:40.:45:42.

surprising Londoners think he has been a great Mayor. Then for the

:45:43.:45:47.

last year, rather than worrying about re-election, Londoners will

:45:48.:45:50.

get a better deal. He will be concentrating on delivering all of

:45:51.:45:54.

those things for his last year as mayor, rather than whether he will

:45:55.:45:58.

challenge. Why is he coming back though? He has a job to do and he

:45:59.:46:02.

was elected until 2016. Why does he want another job? He always said he

:46:03.:46:08.

would do the two terms. Because of the five-year rule on he is thinking

:46:09.:46:12.

there would not be another chance until 2020. Clearly, the most

:46:13.:46:16.

important thing is that he can do the two jobs and there is precedent

:46:17.:46:21.

in the Ken Livingstone film. When we were government ministers, we both

:46:22.:46:25.

did two jobs, and we have represented constituents extremely

:46:26.:46:28.

well. And I have no doubt that Boris will be able to do that.

:46:29.:46:37.

what do you think about that? Congratulations to him, he is one

:46:38.:46:45.

step closer to leaving the Conservative Party. In 2012 when

:46:46.:46:52.

Boris Johnson successfully stored his mayoral election, nobody knew

:46:53.:46:56.

when the next general election would be. He wants to be the next leader

:46:57.:47:01.

of the Conservative Party, Ken Livingstone didn't. The big

:47:02.:47:05.

difference now is that until he becomes leader, all the things you

:47:06.:47:11.

do our leading towards that. You can be a minister and an MP, but the

:47:12.:47:18.

differences that he wants to be the leader of the Conservative Party.

:47:19.:47:22.

Not going back to Parliament... He said quite early on he would only do

:47:23.:47:30.

two terms. We have a housing crisis, a transport crisis... Do we think

:47:31.:47:39.

that it will impinge on the job he does as mayor? He has been selected

:47:40.:47:44.

as a candidate, there are 73 seats in London, 33 London boroughs, and

:47:45.:47:50.

this next couple of weeks when we see the Conservative Party

:47:51.:47:54.

conference, he won't be arguing for London, he will be arguing for Boris

:47:55.:47:59.

Johnson to be the next leader of the Conservative Party. I want him

:48:00.:48:03.

batting for London. Coming back early does indicate he doesn't have

:48:04.:48:07.

faith in David Cameron winning the next general election. Far from it,

:48:08.:48:14.

I think you could take the view that like me, Boris hopes David Cameron

:48:15.:48:19.

wins an overall majority and might be considered by the Prime Minister.

:48:20.:48:24.

But let's talk about 73 seats in London, I mean every week I hear

:48:25.:48:29.

about Labour ministers and ex-Labour ministers who wanted to be the Mayor

:48:30.:48:37.

of London. Perhaps some of them I mean do you want to be Mayor of

:48:38.:48:43.

London? Should you tell your constituents? Far from me being

:48:44.:48:51.

disingenuous, there is a moment for Sadiq to come clean? Do you want to

:48:52.:48:57.

be the mayor? Where are you on that? I want to be the next MP for

:48:58.:49:04.

tooting. I think London is best served by a Labour government. Would

:49:05.:49:09.

you rule out standing as Labour s mayoral candidate next time? It is

:49:10.:49:16.

very flattering Stephen pushing my candidacy... Are you willing it out?

:49:17.:49:24.

I want a Labour government. London are best served by a Labour

:49:25.:49:28.

government, by having hard-working MPs, and a Labour mayor in City

:49:29.:49:34.

Hall, whether he or she has currently declared... You will not

:49:35.:49:41.

do it? Stephen can deflect but the real issue is that we have two years

:49:42.:49:52.

left to run... This is much better for Labour isn't it? You should be

:49:53.:49:56.

thankful he will not stand for a third term. Over the next two years,

:49:57.:50:06.

he will not be thinking about re-standing as the mayor, who will

:50:07.:50:10.

be thinking about delivering for Londoners. Affordable housing,

:50:11.:50:15.

council tax kept low, Londoners will benefit. It is not surprising to

:50:16.:50:22.

think overwhelmingly here is a great mayor. At this stage you are saying

:50:23.:50:26.

of course I don't want to be Mayor of London, but you will consider and

:50:27.:50:30.

think about it after the next election? No, I have already said

:50:31.:50:38.

no. Going back to Stephen's point, David Cameron has got Theresa May,

:50:39.:50:43.

George Osborne, Boris Johnson, but London being let down by this mayor

:50:44.:50:48.

who is distracted. People like Stephen, rather than arguing for

:50:49.:50:54.

housing and infrastructure, he is arguing about who will be the next

:50:55.:50:59.

leader of the Tories. We will get on to issues about pay NI next item. It

:51:00.:51:04.

is now three years since Ed Miliband said he wanted to target his

:51:05.:51:08.

attention on the squeezed middle, the term characterising people who

:51:09.:51:13.

may be on modest incomes in steady jobs, but who will still struggle to

:51:14.:51:17.

get by. This section of London's population is the focus of a new

:51:18.:51:21.

report out tomorrow which argues that the capital urgently needs to

:51:22.:51:28.

be made more affordable. Lucy is university educated and has

:51:29.:51:32.

an annual income of ?24,000, but as a single parent, raising her

:51:33.:51:36.

12-year-old daughter in London can be challenging. My oven was

:51:37.:51:42.

condemned a few months ago and I haven't been able to get one yet

:51:43.:51:46.

because it is quite a big expenditure and there is hardly

:51:47.:51:50.

anything left for me to be able to save. I have one of those pan tops,

:51:51.:52:02.

and when I tell people I haven't got another may think it is ridiculous

:52:03.:52:06.

but it is true. I am hoping things will improve but it is really tight.

:52:07.:52:14.

According to a new report, Lucy s story is far from unique. It is

:52:15.:52:18.

claimed there are over 1 million people in the capital for whom life

:52:19.:52:23.

in London may soon simply become unviable. To cope with this the

:52:24.:52:27.

report says policymakers need to focus on raising incomes and

:52:28.:52:32.

reducing costs. They propose a radical shake-up of working credit

:52:33.:52:36.

so that they can be shared between the different earners of

:52:37.:52:41.

multi-generational households. Training loans, that would allow

:52:42.:52:45.

people on middle incomes to move up the ladder. Low interest loans for

:52:46.:52:53.

commuter season tickets, but follow see any action that could help

:52:54.:52:59.

cannot come fast enough. At the moment I have ?3 something in my

:53:00.:53:05.

account, and ?20 savings. You are living pay cheque to pay cheque

:53:06.:53:14.

what do you do? It is difficult Charles Leadbeater is the author of

:53:15.:53:18.

the report and he is here now. Not just squeezed, but use a trapped,

:53:19.:53:25.

and indeed hidden from view. What do you mean? They are trapped between

:53:26.:53:31.

Labour market which is very competitive at that end which sets

:53:32.:53:36.

their pay and a housing market which is dysfunctional and is on providing

:53:37.:53:42.

them with decent places to live at decent rate. They are trapped and

:53:43.:53:46.

hidden because they don't complain, they don't riot, they basically go

:53:47.:53:51.

home and they go on the Internet. You portray a lifestyle which is

:53:52.:53:55.

having very little disposable income. They are not out drinking,

:53:56.:54:02.

eating, going on holidays, quite a bleak picture. ?6 to go swimming,

:54:03.:54:08.

eating out would be a luxury, holiday would be a luxury. They are

:54:09.:54:13.

working very hard and they are essential to London and they have

:54:14.:54:18.

very little at the end of the week. And you claim that is because the

:54:19.:54:24.

salaries are going up at a much lower pace than the cost of living.

:54:25.:54:32.

Exactly, they are trapped. The labour market is keeping their wages

:54:33.:54:37.

very depressed and it is very costly for them to live. Also childcare is

:54:38.:54:43.

an extreme expense. What about transport, how do you try to help

:54:44.:54:49.

one constituency like this by what... Capping fares? The taxpayer

:54:50.:54:55.

will have to pay? London's public transport has got better but it is

:54:56.:54:58.

still expensive compared to other cities, and for these people if you

:54:59.:55:03.

move further out to get the affordable housing, you just pay

:55:04.:55:07.

more to come in. You would have to find a way for them to afford it

:55:08.:55:12.

more. Providing low-cost loans for season tickets, that idea. Then

:55:13.:55:20.

there are social improvement districts, where people focus

:55:21.:55:25.

energies on low taxation and so on, describe what that would be. It

:55:26.:55:30.

would be like the city of Friedberg in Germany where you bring together

:55:31.:55:36.

low-cost housing, low-cost utilities and energy, very affordable

:55:37.:55:44.

transport, where the cost of living for people earning 25,000 makes life

:55:45.:55:48.

affordable, but you would have to bring that together and not just do

:55:49.:55:54.

it in parts. Then London would be affordable for people on modest

:55:55.:56:02.

incomes. The problem is, Sadiq Khan, the economic situation for the

:56:03.:56:04.

country as a whole dictate it is very difficult for these measures.

:56:05.:56:10.

It is a sober and depressing report with lots of personal stories but it

:56:11.:56:15.

is fizzing with ideas. A third of Londoners are now living in

:56:16.:56:19.

poverty, two thirds of those are working so we have got to radically

:56:20.:56:24.

increase the national minimum wage. We have got to reduce the cost of

:56:25.:56:28.

housing, we need more housing being built. The lowest housing in London

:56:29.:56:35.

since the 1920s. We need at least 80,000 houses being built, secure

:56:36.:56:43.

long-term rental properties. That is a good list. Let's ask Stephen

:56:44.:56:47.

Hammond to deal with that. You have focused a lot of energy on tackling

:56:48.:56:52.

the benefits bill, trying to get people back to work, but what about

:56:53.:56:57.

people providing important services in London? I took some things out of

:56:58.:57:04.

this report, and it is full of ideas, but it does make the point

:57:05.:57:10.

that Londoners have felt squeezed since 2008. This didn't start in

:57:11.:57:17.

2010, it has been a long-term trend. Charles also says in his report

:57:18.:57:23.

let's reduce costs and raise incomes. He identifies the trapped

:57:24.:57:31.

middle as the 25,000-43,000 earners and one thing you don't want to do

:57:32.:57:36.

is increase income tax as Harriet Harman wants to do. The other things

:57:37.:57:42.

you can do are to work with councils to release more public land, huge

:57:43.:57:48.

amounts of public land. Transport for London has identified 93 sites.

:57:49.:57:54.

He is also right about the lazy assets, making them work for people.

:57:55.:57:59.

We are running out of time. Does this mean a bigger burden on public

:58:00.:58:08.

expenditure? No, if you look at Friedberg, the public sector has

:58:09.:58:13.

invested in land and in the long run money has flowed back to the

:58:14.:58:16.

Exchequer but you need public leadership to take the risk out of

:58:17.:58:21.

that. Thank you for coming in. Now for the rest of the news in 60

:58:22.:58:31.

seconds. The capital's banking industry

:58:32.:58:34.

entered centrestage north of the border this week when it emerged The

:58:35.:58:38.

Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds have drawn up contingency plans to

:58:39.:58:43.

move registered headquarters to London if Scotland vote yes in the

:58:44.:58:47.

referendum. Train services going to the capital where the most crowded

:58:48.:58:52.

in England and Wales, according to new figures. At peak time almost 40%

:58:53.:58:57.

of London's services were overcapacity. Plans for a

:58:58.:59:03.

controversial ?4.2 billion super sewer under London have been given

:59:04.:59:08.

the go-ahead by the Government. Work on the controversial 15 mile Thames

:59:09.:59:13.

Tideway tunnel is expected to start in 2016, leading to a cleaner river

:59:14.:59:20.

for London but higher water bills. And Scottish referendum fever

:59:21.:59:23.

reached the streets with town halls across the capital flying the

:59:24.:59:26.

Saltire flag to show support for the union.

:59:27.:59:38.

This huge piece of infrastructure needed, Sadiq Khan, they have

:59:39.:59:43.

finally grasped the nettle, the Government, and they are going ahead

:59:44.:59:50.

with it. Yes, but it is important they pay the cost of this and

:59:51.:59:54.

Londoners should not be penalised. They have got to work with the

:59:55.:00:00.

councils. ?80 each year for god knows how long on the bills? Yes,

:00:01.:00:06.

but they are doing the infrastructure that London needs.

:00:07.:00:12.

The last time a sewer was built in London was 150 years ago, otherwise

:00:13.:00:17.

we would have a dirty River Thames. Andrew, back to you.

:00:18.:00:23.

Can the No campaign still pull it off?

:00:24.:00:28.

And even if they do is the whole of the UK now on the brink

:00:29.:00:31.

I'm joined now by John McTernan former adviser to Gordon Brown

:00:32.:00:48.

and Tony Blair, Alex Bell, former Head of Policy for the SNP

:00:49.:00:51.

and Lindsay McIntosh, the Times Scottish Political Editor

:00:52.:00:54.

And I'm delighted that Tommy and George have stayed too.

:00:55.:01:00.

No fighting has broken out either. Where

:01:01.:01:08.

No fighting has broken out either. have three full days to go

:01:09.:01:08.

No fighting has broken out either. polling day. What is the state of

:01:09.:01:11.

play? I think the poll of polls is accurate. 49 and 51%. What is vital

:01:12.:01:19.

is to bring the undecided voters in, and they properly have about

:01:20.:01:24.

500,000. I think there are a lot of undecided people. I think they know

:01:25.:01:27.

which way they are leaning, but they haven't jumped. The hope of the no

:01:28.:01:33.

campaign is that they will go for the status quo on Thursday. How do

:01:34.:01:38.

you assess the state of the campaign now? The crucial thing is the big

:01:39.:01:42.

swing. The swing has come towards yes, so will the momentum carry it

:01:43.:01:51.

over the line? I will think it does, because it is an antiestablishment

:01:52.:01:55.

swell, and its people responding to standard Western as the politicians

:01:56.:02:00.

and saying that they want a new way -- Westminster politicians. I think

:02:01.:02:05.

that yes will sneak it. A referendum can be more important than a general

:02:06.:02:09.

election, and the Yes campaign have had the momentum. This was the week

:02:10.:02:14.

the momentum stopped. We started the week looking as though yes were

:02:15.:02:18.

going into the lead and then it stopped and most of the recent polls

:02:19.:02:21.

show a distinct lead for the no campaign. A distinct lead? It is one

:02:22.:02:27.

or two points. It is six in one poll, two in another, aiding

:02:28.:02:33.

another. The poll of polls is a good way of measuring, and is it

:02:34.:02:36.

statistically Nick -- nip and tuck? It is the week the momentum stopped.

:02:37.:02:41.

About a fifth of the electorate That will be a quarter of the

:02:42.:02:44.

turnout have voted already, by postal vote, and they are running

:02:45.:02:48.

very strongly towards no, so there is a whole bank of votes there. The

:02:49.:02:54.

postal votes are skewed to the over 60s, and that is the demographic

:02:55.:02:57.

that the Yes campaign have had the biggest trouble with. Absolutely,

:02:58.:03:03.

the Yes campaign faced a challenge amongst the 16 and 18-year-olds and

:03:04.:03:07.

always based challenge with the older voters. Trust me, I was the

:03:08.:03:13.

decision the day the civil servants made it possible for the 16 to

:03:14.:03:17.

18-year-olds to vote, and we said there was a victory for the no

:03:18.:03:21.

campaign in that alone. The young tend to be conservative by nature. I

:03:22.:03:27.

think again that to say that the momentum has stopped when you had a

:03:28.:03:35.

20 point lead, this is a referendum whether people will speak and they

:03:36.:03:39.

will be heard. Except for the one poll which needs a huge health

:03:40.:03:45.

warning because of the size of the sample, the momentum is

:03:46.:03:47.

unquestionably all the way through August is going in the direction of

:03:48.:03:52.

yes. It hasn't quite continue to get to the 55/45 four yes that Alex

:03:53.:03:58.

Salmond thinks will be the result. I would agree with John. This was the

:03:59.:04:02.

momentum stalled. We saw the three leaders coming up, and that kept

:04:03.:04:09.

Alex Salmond off the front pages on the television and we had a raft of

:04:10.:04:12.

economic warnings which, although they were dismissed as

:04:13.:04:15.

scaremongering, they will have had a lot of traction with voters. What

:04:16.:04:20.

does the no campaign have to do in the final three days? It has to

:04:21.:04:25.

focus on the undecided, relentlessly. It has to do stick to

:04:26.:04:30.

the question of risk and keep pushing back on Alex Salmond to say

:04:31.:04:32.

it doesn't matter if the banks leave, it will all be all right on

:04:33.:04:38.

the night. The huge question amongst the undecided voters is about the

:04:39.:04:41.

economy. It is about jobs and currency, about business. That risk

:04:42.:04:46.

is what will crystallise in the ballot box on Thursday and that has

:04:47.:04:50.

to be the focus. What does the Yes campaign have to do? It has to drive

:04:51.:04:54.

home that the swing to the Yes campaign is motivated by people who

:04:55.:04:58.

want a different politics. They have decided amongst themselves that they

:04:59.:05:01.

want to change Scotland. The unfortunate thing is, even though

:05:02.:05:07.

the no campaign has had the chance to put up after proposals, they have

:05:08.:05:10.

failed. The Scottish people want their powers were a purpose and they

:05:11.:05:13.

say that only the Yes campaign can deliver that. There will be two days

:05:14.:05:17.

of relentless campaigning from today, Monday and Tuesday, then the

:05:18.:05:21.

media, the newspapers, including your own, will come out with the

:05:22.:05:27.

final poll, the ones that will be the closest to the day that the

:05:28.:05:31.

Scots actually go and vote. I think we will see more polling this week,

:05:32.:05:35.

but what is interesting is the extent to which the pollsters are

:05:36.:05:38.

picking up what is going on in the street. We know we have a huge

:05:39.:05:41.

number of voters who have never voted before and are not engage with

:05:42.:05:47.

politics, so what will they do? The third candidate in the election if

:05:48.:05:50.

I can would in this way, are the polls. They might have a lot of

:05:51.:05:53.

questions to answer on Friday morning. We were talking earlier

:05:54.:05:58.

with George and Tommy about the Labour Party's consequences in all

:05:59.:06:02.

of this. Gordon Brown, of course, has had a bit of a second coming as

:06:03.:06:06.

a result of this referendum. I just want to play a clip of Gordon Brown

:06:07.:06:09.

during the campaign and get a reaction. And I say this to Alex

:06:10.:06:20.

Salmond himself. Up until today I am outside front line politics. If he

:06:21.:06:23.

continues to peddle this deception, that the Scottish Parliament under

:06:24.:06:28.

his leadership, and he cannot do anything to improve the health

:06:29.:06:31.

service until he has a separate state, then I will want to join Joe

:06:32.:06:38.

Hanlon want in and securing the return of a Labour government as

:06:39.:06:42.

quickly as possible -- Johann Lamont. That was seen by some people

:06:43.:06:49.

as Gordon Brown implying he might stand for the Scottish Parliament.

:06:50.:06:53.

Whether it is yes or no, is Gordon Brown the saviour of Scottish

:06:54.:06:59.

Labour? I did a double black the other night -- double act with him

:07:00.:07:02.

the other night, and I must say he was a big beast all over again. He

:07:03.:07:07.

crossed the stage Meli dealt with the audience brilliantly. He has a

:07:08.:07:12.

certain presence, Gordon Brown, but he would really have to reinvent

:07:13.:07:17.

himself quite considerably. He is capable of doing, but the man who

:07:18.:07:22.

was the biographer of Jimmy Maxton, who pulled together the original red

:07:23.:07:26.

paper on Scotland, he would have to be that Gordon Brown rather than the

:07:27.:07:31.

Gordon Brown of some more melancholy events later. Tommy, you have both

:07:32.:07:34.

been critical of the state of the Scottish Labour Party. Rather than

:07:35.:07:38.

looking to Gordon Brown, which might be an interim solution, doesn't

:07:39.:07:41.

Scottish Labour have to find a new generation of people to reignite it?

:07:42.:07:46.

What George and I are agreed on and you have to remember this question

:07:47.:07:51.

of independence see us disagreeing passionately, and in most other

:07:52.:07:54.

things we find ourselves in agreement, one thing is clear,

:07:55.:07:58.

Scottish Labour is finished. They have lost the heart and soul of

:07:59.:08:04.

Scotland. The fact that we are discussing with four days to go an

:08:05.:08:07.

independence referendum that is neck and neck, Labour have failed

:08:08.:08:12.

miserably, absolutely miserably because they have given up

:08:13.:08:15.

everything they stood for. The SNP has picked it up. They have just

:08:16.:08:20.

taken on the bank -- mantle of a left of centre party and are picking

:08:21.:08:24.

up support. Gordon and the rest in my opinion, they represent the past.

:08:25.:08:28.

The yes vote on the Yes campaign represents the future. What do you

:08:29.:08:31.

say to that? There is nothing socialist about an SNP that wants to

:08:32.:08:37.

cut business tax by 3% in the pan. There is nothing socialist about an

:08:38.:08:41.

SNP destroying further education so they can give middle-class people

:08:42.:08:46.

free education. The Labour Party is alive and kicking. You can see if it

:08:47.:08:50.

is Gordon Brown, or Jim Murphy with the 100 days tour. But I hesitate to

:08:51.:08:57.

use this word, but they are kind of privatised from the Scottish Labour

:08:58.:09:00.

Party. They have rode their own fallow. Jim Murphy was on the stump

:09:01.:09:05.

because official Scottish Labour did not want him leading their campaign.

:09:06.:09:10.

Gordon Brown was, I think, kept off the stage until it became so

:09:11.:09:14.

critical that he had to be brought back. I agree with John, the SNP

:09:15.:09:20.

talks left but acts right. That is before they get state powers. That

:09:21.:09:25.

is what is exciting about the referendum, it's not about the SNP,

:09:26.:09:29.

it's about the people deciding. What we have heard so far in the

:09:30.:09:32.

referendum campaign is that there is a desperate yearning in the

:09:33.:09:36.

electorate for real politics, purposeful politics and for the

:09:37.:09:40.

people to be represented. It is probably to the eternal shame of

:09:41.:09:43.

labour that they gave up that role and other people are now taking it

:09:44.:09:47.

upon themselves. How would you assess the state of the Labour

:09:48.:09:51.

Party? The problem is that it was demolished by the SNP in 2011 and

:09:52.:09:55.

what they should have done since then and in other circumstances is

:09:56.:09:58.

take a real look within themselves and brought forward new talent and

:09:59.:10:02.

policies and watch out what they stood for. They've been unable to do

:10:03.:10:05.

that because they are locked in a constitutional row. It is the plan

:10:06.:10:12.

of the Nationalists to fight the first Scottish general election as

:10:13.:10:15.

an independent nation as a nationalist party with its own

:10:16.:10:18.

programme. You don't all go your own way. Why don't you do that? You have

:10:19.:10:24.

more on your main reason to be, so why not go, left, right and centre

:10:25.:10:29.

question you are presuming you don't go the one-way. I do not see the

:10:30.:10:33.

function of the SNP after the yes vote. I think it is clear that there

:10:34.:10:37.

is an SNP under Nicola Sturgeon an SNP which attracts votes from the

:10:38.:10:41.

left and that is the one for me Whether that is called the SNP or

:10:42.:10:44.

something else, I don't know. I think the assumption that we are

:10:45.:10:49.

going into a mirror of old politics in a new world is just fundamentally

:10:50.:10:57.

flawed. That is interesting. Let's just bring in the English

:10:58.:11:00.

dimensional. In many ways, England has not spoken in this referendum

:11:01.:11:05.

campaign. Whether it is yes or no, it will, and to give you a flavour

:11:06.:11:09.

of what some in England might be thinking was saying, here is a clip

:11:10.:11:13.

from John Redwood. We are fed up with this lopsided devolution, this

:11:14.:11:18.

unfair devolution. Scotland gets first-class Devolution, Wales gets

:11:19.:11:21.

second-class devolution and England gets nothing. If Wales wants the

:11:22.:11:24.

same as us, they should have it and then there would be commonality so

:11:25.:11:29.

we could discuss and decide in our own countries, in our own assemblies

:11:30.:11:32.

in Parliament, all those things that are devolved. George, it was clear

:11:33.:11:40.

that if Scotland voted yes for independence it has huge

:11:41.:11:42.

implications for England than the UK, but it's also clear particularly

:11:43.:11:47.

after Gordon Brown's intervention, even if it is no, it has huge

:11:48.:11:51.

applications. You are, I suggest, agreeing with John Redwood that

:11:52.:11:55.

there should be an English boys It would be a step too far for me to

:11:56.:12:01.

agree with him -- English voice I appreciate I might have gone out on

:12:02.:12:05.

a limb. He is the voice of Mars the Balkan from Mars. My own

:12:06.:12:11.

constituents in Bradford are asking, what about us? All these things

:12:12.:12:16.

being done, all the extra mile is being travel to Scotland, what about

:12:17.:12:20.

us? Labour would be well advised to adjust quickly on this so that the

:12:21.:12:25.

John Redwood types do not steal the show. England has yes to use -- yet

:12:26.:12:32.

to speak. It's interesting when you hear a Labour backbencher in

:12:33.:12:35.

Scotland talk about a command paper. He is not in government. Gordon

:12:36.:12:41.

Brown is going round Scotland promising things and he has

:12:42.:12:44.

absolutely no chance of delivering them. The MPs in England will say,

:12:45.:12:49.

hey, what are you talking about We have never been discussed with that?

:12:50.:12:53.

We have not agreed with that. The only way people in Scotland will get

:12:54.:12:58.

the powers they deserve is by voting yes. Crystal ball time, Tommy, you

:12:59.:13:03.

think it is 60/40. I will stick with it, because we have an unprecedented

:13:04.:13:08.

election. 97% of Scotland is registered to vote. The working

:13:09.:13:11.

class will vote in numbers never voted before. George? 55/45 for our

:13:12.:13:20.

side. And if there is a rogue poll, the tek Levesley polled --

:13:21.:13:23.

technically flawed poll, which should not be published because it

:13:24.:13:28.

is so flawed, then we would be stretching towards what I am

:13:29.:13:31.

predicting already. I think in the last few days we will reach that.

:13:32.:13:37.

Come on. If the no campaign can get the silent majority out, they will

:13:38.:13:40.

edge it. You think they will win, but how much? They cannot give up in

:13:41.:13:47.

a second, a moment or a mile. It is that close. It will be won by the

:13:48.:13:52.

passionate view. I will go for a narrow yes victory. I'm the George,

:13:53.:14:03.

53 or 54% in favour of Joe -- no. -- I am with George. I will leave you

:14:04.:14:06.

to argue about that later. Thank you for being with us on the special

:14:07.:14:08.

Sunday politics from Edinburgh. That's all from us today

:14:09.:14:10.

in Scotland. Don't forget the Daily Politics will

:14:11.:14:12.

have continuing coverage of the referendum campaign all this

:14:13.:14:14.

week on BBC2 at midday. On Thursday night Huw Edwards will

:14:15.:14:17.

be in Glasgow and I will be in London to bring you live coverage

:14:18.:14:20.

of the results on BBC1 from 10. 0 pm on a historic night for Scotland

:14:21.:14:24.

and the rest of the United Kingdom. And I'll be back next Sunday

:14:25.:14:27.

when we're live from the Labour Unless, of course, the referendum

:14:28.:14:30.

result is so tumultuous even the Remember if it's Sunday,

:14:31.:14:38.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:14:39.:14:43.

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