28/09/2014 Sunday Politics London


28/09/2014

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Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,

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live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.

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There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected

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He joins us live from his constituency, where he has

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It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he

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arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.

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On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned

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RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq

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And should we be targeting Syria, too?

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In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those

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priced out are choosing to move away.

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And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,

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who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.

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Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

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And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.

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At the current rate of Tory resignations,

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Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote

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address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.

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It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP

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defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and

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Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.

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Here's what the Prime Minister had to say

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These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and

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rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you

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want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain

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that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a

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Conservative government after the next election.

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And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.

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Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative

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colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping

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faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You

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heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was

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dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have

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increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour

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managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under

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Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my

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words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut

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immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to

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the community, particularly over house-building. The government has

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broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my

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voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to

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UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency

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chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and

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you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office

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telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the

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Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..

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So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham

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to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did

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you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually

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do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you

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cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a

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decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by

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UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a

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lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.

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That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this

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country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,

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quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.

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So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting

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UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number

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of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are

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winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned

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with the political class in Westminster, that they have not

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voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is

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inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the

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last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of

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life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.

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That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of

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change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My

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ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10

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as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David

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Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick

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Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and

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we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to

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pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to

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give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up

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for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the

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party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this

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is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you

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winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are

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frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to

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save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,

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you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in

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Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at

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MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their

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voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking

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permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe

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many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a

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Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to

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decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our

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country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and

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have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and

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honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my

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constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is

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the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and

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do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas

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Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for

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disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,

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the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was

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extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years

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ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit

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speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things

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there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at

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Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few

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ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just

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to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who

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believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,

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who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which

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has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,

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which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -

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after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David

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Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would

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you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP

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policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with

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immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will

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look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to

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restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How

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serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,

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destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is

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beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen

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eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing

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like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.

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There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis

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writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the

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first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used

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to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic

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in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some

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of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.

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There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the

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media problem of the general election which they cannot win if

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UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in

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many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does

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it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would

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it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics

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to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the

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Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably

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lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising

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them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It

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is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I

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was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the

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TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.

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But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to

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step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what

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he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in

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the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that

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we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they

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say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,

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Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this

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is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able

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to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly

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list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,

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this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.

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To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative

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The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative

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Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -

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that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier

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There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,

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and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to

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the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of

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Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge

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they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.

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Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of

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pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories

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run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten

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councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more

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ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is

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getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing

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seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be

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stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the

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policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU

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Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,

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39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...

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It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said

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were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while

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treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a

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Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative

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councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the

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general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are

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opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left

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the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the

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Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but

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what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my

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residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was

:16:11.:16:14.

happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%

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think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with

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31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing

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councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an

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issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a

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way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is

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almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the

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party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey

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thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have

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not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for

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difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must

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be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be

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specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote

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UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are

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disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,

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come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just

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eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and

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local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem

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the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former

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Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.

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Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't

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trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They

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believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and

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they are right. They said before they defected that people should

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vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is

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right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this

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is the point, the people should decide. However a future government

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decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who

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decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough

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powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come

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out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.

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The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron

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won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to

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give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote

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to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and

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be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in

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advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the

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rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take

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place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just

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now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that

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choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.

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Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave

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the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but

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again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want

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to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before

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they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is

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Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will

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not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I

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think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be

:20:34.:20:37.

scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,

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didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign

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Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first

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reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..

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Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26

:21:00.:21:04.

years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.

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Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?

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We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve

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things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider

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negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative

:21:29.:21:34.

promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to

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keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,

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you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000

:21:54.:22:12.

in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that

:22:13.:22:20.

under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the

:22:21.:22:24.

country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?

:22:25.:22:29.

Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?

:22:30.:22:35.

coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened

:22:36.:22:40.

under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we

:22:41.:22:46.

would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on

:22:47.:22:51.

immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.

:22:52.:22:57.

Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in

:22:58.:23:02.

2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP

:23:03.:23:07.

now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in

:23:08.:23:13.

this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought

:23:14.:23:17.

they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a

:23:18.:23:22.

thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of

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opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will

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be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are

:23:32.:23:35.

announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next

:23:36.:23:39.

Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather

:23:40.:23:45.

than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our

:23:46.:23:53.

survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact

:23:54.:23:59.

with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows

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one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want

:24:09.:24:15.

it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't

:24:16.:24:19.

work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are

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sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is

:24:27.:24:31.

further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards

:24:32.:24:36.

English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is

:24:37.:24:39.

unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we

:24:40.:24:43.

believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we

:24:44.:24:47.

have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK

:24:48.:24:53.

as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election

:24:54.:24:57.

result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,

:24:58.:25:03.

absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns

:25:04.:25:08.

night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals

:25:09.:25:13.

for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are

:25:14.:25:18.

agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There

:25:19.:25:24.

was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will

:25:25.:25:32.

produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for

:25:33.:25:36.

Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals

:25:37.:25:40.

for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will

:25:41.:25:46.

you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?

:25:47.:25:50.

The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You

:25:51.:25:56.

will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I

:25:57.:26:01.

don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish

:26:02.:26:05.

timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general

:26:06.:26:10.

election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what

:26:11.:26:15.

English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it

:26:16.:26:22.

over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,

:26:23.:26:27.

but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions

:26:28.:26:32.

that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs

:26:33.:26:37.

from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can

:26:38.:26:41.

achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English

:26:42.:26:45.

devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if

:26:46.:26:51.

you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going

:26:52.:26:56.

on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more

:26:57.:27:01.

freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of

:27:02.:27:06.

that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what

:27:07.:27:15.

happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution

:27:16.:27:20.

or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and

:27:21.:27:25.

that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair

:27:26.:27:29.

to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you

:27:30.:27:34.

perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more

:27:35.:27:41.

tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a

:27:42.:27:46.

commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --

:27:47.:27:51.

but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is

:27:52.:27:59.

less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to

:28:00.:28:04.

Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot

:28:05.:28:09.

more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about

:28:10.:28:14.

taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you

:28:15.:28:19.

can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,

:28:20.:28:23.

there will be English votes for English laws after the election

:28:24.:28:27.

Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if

:28:28.:28:31.

there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce

:28:32.:28:35.

our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go

:28:36.:28:40.

away because I want to move on to some other matters.

:28:41.:28:46.

Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.

:28:47.:28:49.

Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq

:28:50.:28:51.

since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.

:28:52.:28:54.

When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers

:28:55.:29:02.

who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have

:29:03.:29:07.

already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to

:29:08.:29:12.

maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back

:29:13.:29:17.

from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else

:29:18.:29:21.

try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a

:29:22.:29:25.

full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role

:29:26.:29:30.

to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.

:29:31.:29:34.

And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,

:29:35.:29:37.

Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all

:29:38.:29:49.

that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been

:29:50.:29:53.

announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are

:29:54.:30:01.

sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of

:30:02.:30:03.

Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so

:30:04.:30:09.

little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some

:30:10.:30:14.

unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked

:30:15.:30:18.

for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it

:30:19.:30:22.

will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which

:30:23.:30:27.

can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the

:30:28.:30:31.

operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,

:30:32.:30:37.

Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our

:30:38.:30:40.

backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British

:30:41.:30:45.

government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic

:30:46.:30:49.

country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could

:30:50.:30:55.

have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political

:30:56.:30:59.

consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to

:31:00.:31:04.

send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with

:31:05.:31:07.

that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many

:31:08.:31:10.

other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards

:31:11.:31:18.

Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he

:31:19.:31:23.

condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any

:31:24.:31:25.

credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,

:31:26.:31:36.

they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we

:31:37.:31:40.

are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote

:31:41.:31:44.

last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the

:31:45.:31:48.

House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken

:31:49.:31:52.

care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of

:31:53.:31:55.

Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until

:31:56.:32:04.

recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq

:32:05.:32:09.

but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make

:32:10.:32:15.

sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our

:32:16.:32:23.

assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime

:32:24.:32:27.

Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there

:32:28.:32:33.

is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When

:32:34.:32:37.

we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by

:32:38.:32:41.

all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign

:32:42.:32:46.

policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority

:32:47.:32:49.

in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael

:32:50.:32:55.

Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he

:32:56.:33:02.

says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they

:33:03.:33:06.

are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery

:33:07.:33:10.

of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything

:33:11.:33:14.

does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United

:33:15.:33:18.

States and other countries are engaged in the action against

:33:19.:33:22.

targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing

:33:23.:33:28.

different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the

:33:29.:33:31.

House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have

:33:32.:33:36.

achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.

:33:37.:33:40.

The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported

:33:41.:33:44.

that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a

:33:45.:33:48.

democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a

:33:49.:33:52.

very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue

:33:53.:33:57.

a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not

:33:58.:34:03.

embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military

:34:04.:34:07.

experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone

:34:08.:34:12.

tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We

:34:13.:34:19.

have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike

:34:20.:34:22.

the last government. The national security council is chaired by the

:34:23.:34:26.

Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of

:34:27.:34:34.

the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the

:34:35.:34:38.

people who have the information now. So, you will know what British

:34:39.:34:44.

and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said

:34:45.:34:49.

there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come

:34:50.:34:53.

back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will

:34:54.:34:55.

have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,

:34:56.:35:01.

indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does

:35:02.:35:07.

that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot

:35:08.:35:14.

comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat

:35:15.:35:19.

to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't

:35:20.:35:24.

Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in

:35:25.:35:29.

the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take

:35:30.:35:33.

action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have

:35:34.:35:37.

not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought

:35:38.:35:43.

we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes

:35:44.:35:46.

on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal

:35:47.:35:53.

basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading

:35:54.:35:57.

of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that

:35:58.:36:03.

they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their

:36:04.:36:07.

action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes

:36:08.:36:14.

back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it

:36:15.:36:20.

is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria

:36:21.:36:25.

in building up the political strength of the more moderate

:36:26.:36:31.

opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do

:36:32.:36:35.

not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing

:36:36.:36:42.

something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you

:36:43.:36:46.

not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure

:36:47.:36:51.

of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice

:36:52.:36:56.

given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That

:36:57.:37:01.

was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal

:37:02.:37:05.

advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal

:37:06.:37:10.

situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it

:37:11.:37:13.

that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme

:37:14.:37:23.

humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine

:37:24.:37:26.

strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal

:37:27.:37:28.

advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say

:37:29.:37:30.

goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20

:37:31.:37:35.

minutes, The Week Ahead. First though,

:37:36.:37:39.

The Sunday Politics where you are. In London this week -

:37:40.:37:51.

how the richest 1% are pulling Why should we be surprised that

:37:52.:37:55.

people are upping sticks Emily Thornberry for Labour and

:37:56.:38:02.

Bob Neill for the Conservatives are our resident MPs this week,

:38:03.:38:08.

drawn back to Parliament for Let's get straight

:38:09.:38:10.

on to the question of whether this city is caught in an

:38:11.:38:15.

inescapable process of polarisation London is now the favourite

:38:16.:38:40.

destination for the world's megarich, boasting more billionaires

:38:41.:38:43.

than any other city on earth, according to the man who edits the

:38:44.:38:48.

Sunday times which list. He says the capital offers things which are

:38:49.:38:52.

European rivals simply cannot. Everybody speaks English, which is

:38:53.:38:56.

part of the attraction. It is the London markets, the chance to make

:38:57.:39:00.

investments will be more easily than in France or Germany. And there is a

:39:01.:39:06.

lot of overseas billionaires who are buying into iconic London.

:39:07.:39:15.

Another reason might well be that London offers the incredibly rich

:39:16.:39:20.

ways to spend their money. Now, this is a Bugatti, the fastest car in all

:39:21.:39:27.

the world. They only ever made 50, and this particular one is the only

:39:28.:39:31.

one you can buy anywhere on earth which is still for sale brand-new.

:39:32.:39:37.

And it can be yours for just ?2 million. Obviously, at that kind of

:39:38.:39:45.

price, it is unaffordable not just to ordinary people, but actually to

:39:46.:39:48.

most of the very rich, the so-called 1%. In themselves, the 1% is a very

:39:49.:39:57.

broad group. Starting about ?106,000, if you are a couple

:39:58.:40:02.

without children, going up to the multi billionaires. -- ?160,000 It

:40:03.:40:10.

is not just the powerful at the top, it is the voice of everyone! It is

:40:11.:40:15.

not just a few wealthy people, it is every working person! This week

:40:16.:40:20.

Labour confirmed plans to introduce new taxes on incomes more than

:40:21.:40:24.

150,000, and properties worth more than ?2 million, policies which will

:40:25.:40:28.

hit London more than any other region. Our research is clear, 6%

:40:29.:40:34.

of the properties which will be hit by this tax are in London and the

:40:35.:40:37.

south-east of the vast majority in central London. While these policies

:40:38.:40:43.

might lose Labour some popularity in the capital, could it be that Labour

:40:44.:40:48.

are banking on being able to present themselves as the party of the many,

:40:49.:40:52.

fighting the Tories, a party of the rich? The perception that the

:40:53.:40:56.

Conservatives are on the side of the rich and privileged is a problem for

:40:57.:41:00.

them, because most people do not think of themselves like that. Until

:41:01.:41:04.

and unless the Conservatives find a way of convincing the electorate

:41:05.:41:09.

that they are on the side of everybody, which is what Ed Miliband

:41:10.:41:12.

is trying to do, they do have a problem. And so, going into their

:41:13.:41:17.

own conference this week, the Conservatives may be careful when

:41:18.:41:21.

opposing Ed Miliband's plans to take a bit more from the richest people

:41:22.:41:25.

in the capital, lest it play into Labour's hands.

:41:26.:41:28.

Danny Dorling is an academic who's just written Inequality And The 1%.

:41:29.:41:31.

First off, what did he think of Labour's mansion tax idea?

:41:32.:41:38.

Calling it a mansion tax is a silly word. Just modernising the council

:41:39.:41:44.

tax, so that people are paying a fair amount, rather than somebody in

:41:45.:41:51.

a very modest house, valued at just over 330,000 some years ago, is

:41:52.:41:54.

paying the same as somebody in one valued at ?3 million or ?30 million.

:41:55.:41:59.

Mansion tax was the wrong idea, the wrong word. Do you think it is a

:42:00.:42:05.

tactic to create the perception that the Conservatives are the party that

:42:06.:42:10.

protect the rich? I would expect so. It is an obvious way to go. If you

:42:11.:42:18.

look at the last four years, most people's standard of living has

:42:19.:42:22.

fallen. 99% of people have become more equal. The only group who have

:42:23.:42:27.

seen their incomes rise have been the 1% of. Jawing most of that time,

:42:28.:42:33.

the party in power, with their allies, the Liberals, have been

:42:34.:42:36.

largely supported, and the 1% have done better. It is an easy one to go

:42:37.:42:41.

for. The wealth of London should be used for the good of the country, we

:42:42.:42:45.

should not have this incredibly wealthy city in a country which has

:42:46.:42:50.

2 have food banks. Opinion polls suggest people see the Conservatives

:42:51.:42:53.

as looking after the interests of the rich - do you think the 2

:42:54.:42:56.

parties are substantially different in that respect? I do not think they

:42:57.:43:02.

are that different. If you lot that donors to Labour, they include some

:43:03.:43:08.

pretty rich people. If you look at the background of the MPs, they are

:43:09.:43:13.

very similar. Ed Miliband is in the 1%, his household income, angst and

:43:14.:43:17.

his wife, puts him there. All three party leaders are. So, the parties

:43:18.:43:23.

are not that different. Is interesting in the last four years

:43:24.:43:26.

is that although the 1% have done better, the group just beneath

:43:27.:43:31.

them, the 6%, have not, they have lost their child benefit and have

:43:32.:43:38.

not seen increases. Cynically, I see Labour as representing the interests

:43:39.:43:43.

as the rest of the 10%. I am afraid, 90% of society is not very well

:43:44.:43:45.

represented in politics. Jerry Thomas asking the questions.

:43:46.:43:47.

The cost of housing in the capital Is this a good thing, attracting all

:43:48.:44:00.

of these super-rich people? It is important that London remains an

:44:01.:44:05.

international centre. I think that rather academic approach missed out

:44:06.:44:09.

the reality that this creates jobs for people write down the income

:44:10.:44:13.

spectrum and brings in tax revenue. We have got to put it in proportion.

:44:14.:44:24.

That is why we have been helping the 90%. We made sure the lowest earners

:44:25.:44:32.

are out of tax, so 28 million people will be paying less tax. What about

:44:33.:44:37.

a proportionate response to the fact that we hear that there are a number

:44:38.:44:45.

of people moving away? We will be hearing from your party today, and

:44:46.:44:49.

perhaps over the next week, about cutting benefits and money to the

:44:50.:44:53.

poorest, so what will you do about the very richest? We have already

:44:54.:44:59.

tightened up the ownership of some properties through foreign

:45:00.:45:01.

companies, we have increased capital gains tax, we have tightened up on

:45:02.:45:07.

loopholes, but where money is fairly earned, you do not want to scare

:45:08.:45:10.

people away by adopting a hostile attitude. So you have gone as far as

:45:11.:45:13.

you want to go? people away by adopting a hostile

:45:14.:45:22.

attitude. So you have gone On It does not benefit the economy. We

:45:23.:45:27.

need to make sure the money is directed properly. With our benefit

:45:28.:45:31.

exchanges we will be redirecting that money to increase the amount of

:45:32.:45:36.

paid apprenticeships. You personally wouldn't want to see any further

:45:37.:45:40.

imposition, any more payments having to be made by the top 1%, the super

:45:41.:45:48.

rich? I don't think it is necessary but I do think it is fair in that

:45:49.:45:54.

system to everyone. Of course loopholes can be tightened up but we

:45:55.:45:57.

are talking about a small percentage. We are talking about

:45:58.:46:00.

hard-working families in the middle, and that is where we are doing our

:46:01.:46:09.

best to keep the economy on track. By contrast, Emily Thornberry, it is

:46:10.:46:13.

clear Labour has decided it needs to try to capture some more wealth at

:46:14.:46:19.

the higher extreme, are you happy with that? It is basic Labour stuff.

:46:20.:46:25.

Those with the broadest shoulders should shoulder the biggest burden.

:46:26.:46:30.

In my area, we have had the people at the bottom end, whenever they

:46:31.:46:36.

move out somebody in greater housing need moves in because of the

:46:37.:46:41.

shortage, and at the other end, if a richer person moves out and even

:46:42.:46:47.

richer person moves in. Now we have properties being sold to people

:46:48.:46:51.

abroad who will spend millions of pounds on a flat they will not even

:46:52.:46:57.

news. We think the mansion tax is an appropriate response. What

:46:58.:47:01.

percentage do you think of people in your constituency will have to pay

:47:02.:47:06.

this mansion tax? I don't know, but a lot of people are worried about

:47:07.:47:11.

it. I bought my house 20 years ago and it is now worth a fortune. About

:47:12.:47:18.

2 million possibly? About 2 million I think. You are not worried about

:47:19.:47:24.

the mansion tax? I would rather not pay it. But when we first bought the

:47:25.:47:29.

house it was worth a fraction of that. As our children grow up and

:47:30.:47:33.

they cannot afford to live where they have been brought up, you begin

:47:34.:47:38.

to realise there is more. But you will have less money to pass on to

:47:39.:47:44.

your children under this tax. Are you fully supportive of this tax

:47:45.:47:49.

being the route that Labour has decided to redistribute money away

:47:50.:47:53.

from London to the rest of the country and to hit this cohort of

:47:54.:47:58.

people? I am fully supportive of us putting more money into the NHS I

:47:59.:48:08.

and other MPs have made sure Ed Balls understands that those

:48:09.:48:17.

unlimited means... What does understand mean? Have you had the

:48:18.:48:22.

guarantee? Because you are persistent about these things, have

:48:23.:48:27.

you had the guarantee of how it will work, how it will be valued? There

:48:28.:48:32.

are details to be worked out but we have a commitment that there will be

:48:33.:48:37.

a form of bandings so those who buy a flat at Hyde Park Corner for 148

:48:38.:48:45.

million and paid ?26 in council tax will get clobbered, and so they

:48:46.:48:49.

should, and it will go down depending on how much it is. Those

:48:50.:48:56.

at the bottom end, there will be an understanding that there are people

:48:57.:49:00.

unlimited means in that band. Bob Neill, we know the Conservative

:49:01.:49:03.

position on mansion tax, but you have made it clear you think we are

:49:04.:49:08.

fine as we are, but by dismissing this and keeping things exactly as

:49:09.:49:12.

you are doing, you are playing in the face even not Conservative mayor

:49:13.:49:19.

and cross-party support, for going for a revaluation of council tax.

:49:20.:49:25.

That's not quite right. There are two important points, I understand

:49:26.:49:32.

why she was guarded on this because a number of Labour MPs... You focus

:49:33.:49:38.

on the Conservatives. You are not prepared to change a system that is

:49:39.:49:45.

20 years old? Let me tell you why. When I looked at that as local

:49:46.:49:49.

government minister, the experience we found in Wales was that when you

:49:50.:49:54.

did a re-evaluation, it didn't just adjust the highest value, the

:49:55.:49:59.

highest value houses, it dragged everybody up so everybody ended up

:50:00.:50:05.

paying more council tax. With Scottish devolution coming in in the

:50:06.:50:08.

next parliament, it is an opportunity to look at more powers

:50:09.:50:12.

for English local authorities including London and I would rather

:50:13.:50:16.

do it in that considered way rather than a knee jerk headline grabber

:50:17.:50:19.

like mansion tax. Let's move on The cost of housing in the capital

:50:20.:50:25.

is now so extortionate that we are That according to one of London s

:50:26.:50:28.

business lobby groups. It says talented people are fleeing

:50:29.:50:32.

the city for A lack of new homes is commonly

:50:33.:50:47.

blamed for the cost of extortion housing in London. Some research

:50:48.:50:54.

found that 41% of London employees would consider leaving the city

:50:55.:50:59.

because of housing costs. 38% of businesses said it affects their

:51:00.:51:05.

ability to recruit and retain staff. What can be done? Government are

:51:06.:51:14.

very well aware of the need for the private sector to work together

:51:15.:51:17.

they know they can unlock of the challenges. Some agencies are primed

:51:18.:51:24.

to work with the private sector it to release some of those sites. But

:51:25.:51:29.

London is still only building a fraction of the homes necessary to

:51:30.:51:32.

deal with housing problems. We have been talking about the brain

:51:33.:51:51.

drain for years but you are saying we are genuinely seeing a reversal

:51:52.:51:56.

of that process? London needs to build something like ?50,000 --

:51:57.:52:03.

homes per year, and we are building 20,000. People live far away from

:52:04.:52:14.

the tube, in squalid conditions and older people are able to live here

:52:15.:52:19.

because they bought their houses years ago, they are fine. It is the

:52:20.:52:28.

squeezed middle, people aged 25 40, 70% of them according to our

:52:29.:52:32.

research are thinking about leaving London. When you want to have a

:52:33.:52:36.

family, it is difficult to settle down in London. What is it about the

:52:37.:52:41.

population increase that was not predicted? Or immigration? People

:52:42.:52:46.

coming from elsewhere in the country? What is the reason why the

:52:47.:52:51.

policymakers have not prepared for this? London is growing at its

:52:52.:53:00.

fastest rate in history. Where do you think the blame is? We simply

:53:01.:53:06.

don't build enough houses. There was a whole range of things that need to

:53:07.:53:11.

change if we are going to build 50,000 homes rather than 20,000 We

:53:12.:53:16.

need to make it easier to get planning permission, we need public

:53:17.:53:23.

sector brownfield land and build homes on it, we need to look at the

:53:24.:53:29.

ways in which councils and local authorities can build. We have never

:53:30.:53:33.

built at scale in London without the public sector playing a role. What

:53:34.:53:40.

about some sort of tax to stop builders sitting on land? There is

:53:41.:53:46.

very little evidence that house-builders don't build pretty

:53:47.:53:51.

much as quickly as they can. If you are a house-builder, of course you

:53:52.:53:55.

need some land for the future because you need pipeline if you are

:53:56.:53:59.

going to keep running as a business, but the issue of the private sector

:54:00.:54:06.

holding land and not develop it is overstated. Emily Thornberry, what

:54:07.:54:12.

Labour supporters might be depressed about is that if you are going to

:54:13.:54:17.

take a controversial policy like council tax, you might not use this

:54:18.:54:28.

on housing. Can I take you up on what you were saying about land

:54:29.:54:34.

banking because I think in my London borough there are developers who do

:54:35.:54:37.

this and the reason is because my local authority has a really hard

:54:38.:54:43.

not policy on planning and won't allow developers to just build

:54:44.:54:46.

private homes. They are unaffordable for Islington people and we make

:54:47.:54:51.

sure we get a high proportion of affordable housing and they don t

:54:52.:54:54.

like it, and they appeal to Boris and try to get through it that way.

:54:55.:55:00.

Because he has a planning authority, and can override it. .

:55:01.:55:09.

Exactly, and we have some controversial decisions from Boris

:55:10.:55:13.

in the next week or two that people will not be happy with. I would

:55:14.:55:19.

rather that land remained empty then simply being used for luxury flats,

:55:20.:55:25.

who will -- which will bring more rich people who do not play a role

:55:26.:55:33.

in our lives. This has got to be one of the massive issues, you are

:55:34.:55:37.

really vulnerable here, aren't you? I don't think we are vulnerable but

:55:38.:55:42.

all the political parties need to realise that for 30 odd years we

:55:43.:55:47.

have not been building enough homes and that is why we are putting

:55:48.:55:52.

centrepiece our proposal to build 100,000 low-cost, affordable houses

:55:53.:55:57.

by removing some of the genuine difficulties the planning system can

:55:58.:56:08.

put in their way. The homes to buy? Yes, different people have different

:56:09.:56:13.

needs. Some people want to rent privately for a period, some people

:56:14.:56:17.

will want to start on the housing market. How many do we imagine? You

:56:18.:56:26.

say 100,000, how many do we imagine you will be able to get built in

:56:27.:56:31.

London where land values are so high? I think we can achieve a lot.

:56:32.:56:37.

Boris has released the equivalent of about 210 football pitches of public

:56:38.:56:41.

land simply from within his own agencies that can go for housing,

:56:42.:56:46.

and we are doing that nationally as well. Ebbsfleet is within London

:56:47.:56:51.

commuter land, we need to be doing much more of that. I will just give

:56:52.:56:58.

John the last word, a politically if you like, but what do you want to

:56:59.:57:05.

see offered between now and May We need to really get the public sector

:57:06.:57:10.

land in London into development and that requires central government but

:57:11.:57:14.

London government in charge of getting that land out of dead public

:57:15.:57:21.

use. We also need to look at how we can enable London local authorities

:57:22.:57:25.

to choose their balance sheet is. Now for the rest of the news in 60

:57:26.:57:28.

seconds. The head of transport

:57:29.:57:35.

for London has said the capital s transport crisis sparking riots if

:57:36.:57:38.

more is not done improve services. Peter Hendy has warned of social

:57:39.:57:47.

unrest if low paid workers living on outskirts of the capital are unable

:57:48.:57:55.

to commute to work more easily. The first dedicated clinic assisting

:57:56.:58:02.

victims of female genital mutilation has opened at

:58:03.:58:04.

University College Hospital. The training will provide medical

:58:05.:58:06.

treatment and psychological services One of London's top state schools

:58:07.:58:08.

has banned one of its Muslim pupils Camden school

:58:09.:58:13.

for girls said it will challenge any clothing which does not allow pupil

:58:14.:58:17.

teacher interaction and has refused The tube is to run a 24-hour service

:58:18.:58:19.

at weekends from 12 September 2 15. Passengers will be able to take

:58:20.:58:25.

the so-called night tube on Fridays Bob Neill, the cost of public

:58:26.:58:44.

transport and the cost of housing could lead to social unrest, says

:58:45.:58:50.

transport Commissioner. He is banging the drum for more transport

:58:51.:58:55.

investment, that is his job. I think that form of words is unfair for

:58:56.:59:00.

people who are hard pressed to don't resort to that sort of behaviour.

:59:01.:59:05.

Driven by the lack of job opportunities and the lack of

:59:06.:59:09.

ability to travel into where the jobs are. I think it is rhetoric,

:59:10.:59:14.

but underpinning it is the important point that particularly in the Outer

:59:15.:59:18.

London boroughs there is a lot of pressure so we need to encourage

:59:19.:59:22.

development in the right sort of areas, we need to continue to invest

:59:23.:59:27.

in the transport system. The mayor has been doing that, the tube is

:59:28.:59:37.

part of that. Many jobs are also created by that, it all helps.

:59:38.:59:44.

Emily, it is apolitical, the challenges for any party after 016,

:59:45.:59:50.

after next year, and there is the money. Yes, and I understand that

:59:51.:59:55.

but in the end we cannot keep taking for granted London, in my view. I

:59:56.:00:00.

will say this to anybody. London generates a large proportion of the

:00:01.:00:06.

wealth in this country and we cannot just keep stumbling on. We need

:00:07.:00:10.

proper infrastructure, proper transport systems, more homes.. But

:00:11.:00:17.

the last thing you want to do is stifle that wealth by preventing

:00:18.:00:21.

people coming here. Yes, we need to have... Thank goodness we are having

:00:22.:00:26.

Crossrail but we need more homes, of course we do, and we cannot keep

:00:27.:00:31.

taking London for granted and saying it is OK. Where would this country

:00:32.:00:38.

be without London? On that note .. My thanks to you both. Andrew, back

:00:39.:00:42.

to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with

:00:43.:01:01.

the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come

:01:02.:01:06.

here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in

:01:07.:01:12.

their case the general election Two races later it hasn't quite worked

:01:13.:01:18.

out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets

:01:19.:01:23.

under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an

:01:24.:01:29.

article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the

:01:30.:01:34.

heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as

:01:35.:01:41.

a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running

:01:42.:01:46.

for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a

:01:47.:01:51.

five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about

:01:52.:01:56.

campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous

:01:57.:02:02.

Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong

:02:03.:02:09.

turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to

:02:10.:02:25.

UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do

:02:26.:02:34.

you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?

:02:35.:02:53.

Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many

:02:54.:03:12.

more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any

:03:13.:03:21.

more. I would be very surprised I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant

:03:22.:03:24.

sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,

:03:25.:03:30.

namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I

:03:31.:03:34.

think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because

:03:35.:03:42.

that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be

:03:43.:03:46.

a walkover for them. But Rochester is a different scene. And so, there

:03:47.:03:58.

could be a kind of Newark situation. When I campaigned in Newark, two

:03:59.:04:03.

labour families I spoke to said they would vote Tory to keep UKIP out.

:04:04.:04:08.

How bad was the Labour conference last week? One politician said after

:04:09.:04:16.

he had a really bad performance that his television performance was

:04:17.:04:19.

suboptimal. I think that would be a good way of describing Ed

:04:20.:04:24.

Miliband's speech. The problem for Ed Miliband in memorising speeches

:04:25.:04:28.

is that we are not auditioning for a new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing

:04:29.:04:31.

for Prime Minister. He failed the Laurence Olivier test, and therefore

:04:32.:04:36.

failed the Prime Minister test. I think the real problem for him was

:04:37.:04:39.

forgetting to mention the deficit. He spoke from the heart about issues

:04:40.:04:43.

which she really cares about, the NHS, the rupture between wages and

:04:44.:04:49.

inflation, and forgot the deficit. Those issues are important, but if

:04:50.:04:53.

you are not addressing things like the deficit, then people are really

:04:54.:04:56.

not going to be listening to your messages on the areas that matter.

:04:57.:05:02.

Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am afraid. I hope that this ends the

:05:03.:05:08.

nonsense of leaders wasting their time learning speeches off by

:05:09.:05:11.

heart. You could learn a Shakespeare play in the time it takes to learn

:05:12.:05:17.

70 minutes of a leader's speech I think we should just go back to

:05:18.:05:20.

sensible reading what you have written. You can then alter it just

:05:21.:05:25.

beforehand. A lot of things were changing, which is not surprising,

:05:26.:05:28.

but he did not have time to learn it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked

:05:29.:05:33.

once or twice, but that is enough for that. Despite some of the

:05:34.:05:37.

derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories are flat-lining in the sun decks,

:05:38.:05:40.

they have been there almost since the disastrous budget, the

:05:41.:05:46.

omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is still several points ahead, nothing

:05:47.:05:51.

seems to change? And David Cameron is now the leader in trouble. It is

:05:52.:05:56.

almost as if a week is a long time in politics. I thought the Labour

:05:57.:06:04.

and friends was Saab -- sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial.

:06:05.:06:10.

You could've watched the top speeches without knowing that the

:06:11.:06:13.

borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and Syria were in question. I hope,

:06:14.:06:18.

because of Friday's discussion in Parliament, that this conference

:06:19.:06:22.

will raise its sights a bit, and we will have something in Cameron's

:06:23.:06:26.

speech, possibly that of George Osborne as well, which is a bit more

:06:27.:06:30.

global. People hoped UKIP had gone away during the summer, people at

:06:31.:06:34.

this conference, I mean, but it is back with a bang. They are still up

:06:35.:06:42.

at 15% in the polls, the Tories languishing on 32 - what is going to

:06:43.:06:48.

change? UKIP won 3% of the last election, I always thought they

:06:49.:06:55.

would get about 6%. If, by the turn of the year, they are still in

:06:56.:07:00.

double digits, I think at that point you can begin to wake of his

:07:01.:07:04.

party's chances of winning. I have had three people say to me so far,

:07:05.:07:09.

come election day, it will be fine, people will sober up and so on. It

:07:10.:07:13.

will be all right on the night is not a very good strategy, frankly.

:07:14.:07:18.

When they get past 5%, I start to bite into our 3-way marginal seats,

:07:19.:07:24.

with liberals, Labour and Tories, and we have got about 60 of those in

:07:25.:07:28.

the Midlands and the north, so it really is quite serious. And if I

:07:29.:07:33.

may steal one of David's lines, when you were interviewing Mark Reckless

:07:34.:07:38.

this morning, and was not talking about the EU referendum, he was

:07:39.:07:42.

talking about how he felt he had broken his pledges to the electorate

:07:43.:07:45.

because the Conservatives he said had failed on immigration and on the

:07:46.:07:49.

deficit, and those sort of bread-and-butter issues could be

:07:50.:07:53.

really potent on the doorstep, which means the Tories have got to run the

:07:54.:07:57.

kind of campaign they ran in Newark, which is a real centre ground,

:07:58.:08:01.

Reddan but a campaign, in which they would hope to get Liberal Democrat

:08:02.:08:04.

and Labour voters out to vote tactically against UKIP. I think

:08:05.:08:09.

today we have seen Cameron been pushed to the right. He has had to

:08:10.:08:15.

say, yes, I would leave Europe, which he has never said before. It

:08:16.:08:18.

is a huge stepping stone, a big difference. It takes the Tory party

:08:19.:08:24.

somewhere else. May be get them a lot of votes. But it has not so far.

:08:25.:08:29.

But I think it loses a lot of people. The industry organisations,

:08:30.:08:35.

for example. The prospect of going out of Europe, but is quite a fight

:08:36.:08:40.

for them. Is it not the lesson that you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do

:08:41.:08:48.

not need to, really. I agree, last week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold

:08:49.:08:59.

on, that is enough subs! I would not be crowing too much! But what I was

:09:00.:09:07.

going to say, he left out something incredibly important, the deficit.

:09:08.:09:11.

But how many people outside the M25 are thinking about the deficit? One

:09:12.:09:16.

problem we face with Miliband is, he is good at politics and bad at

:09:17.:09:21.

economics, in a way. He comes up with bonkers policies which people

:09:22.:09:24.

love, price-fixing, things like that. Our problem will be about

:09:25.:09:30.

relevance on the doorstep. I do not think at the end of the day it will

:09:31.:09:34.

be about Europe. But was there not a moment of danger for you at the

:09:35.:09:38.

conference, that one area where Miliband is potentially vulnerable

:09:39.:09:40.

is not having credible team with business. Who turned up at the

:09:41.:09:45.

Labour conference, the head of Airbus, saying, we have got to stay

:09:46.:09:51.

in the European Union? The danger is that Europe allows the Labour Party

:09:52.:09:56.

to gain credibility with business. There is some truth in that. But we

:09:57.:10:02.

are in effectively the home straight, the last six months, and

:10:03.:10:05.

people will be fussing about prices and jobs. Very parochial. They will

:10:06.:10:10.

not be saying, what does the CBI think about this? It is, what is

:10:11.:10:15.

happening to me, in my town, in my factory, in my office. That is where

:10:16.:10:23.

the fight will be. Is it not the truth that if UKIP stays anywhere

:10:24.:10:29.

near around this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to

:10:30.:10:33.

win an overall majority? I would say, if it is this level of support,

:10:34.:10:37.

it is impossible for the Tories to finish as the biggest party, even in

:10:38.:10:42.

a hung Parliament. The Tories keep trying to win back UKIP voters with

:10:43.:10:47.

cold logic - witches it makes Ed Miliband becoming prime minister

:10:48.:10:51.

more likely. UKIP is basically a vessel phenomenon, coming from the

:10:52.:10:55.

gut, and David Cameron has never found the emotional pitch in his

:10:56.:10:59.

rhetoric to meet that. I wonder whether we will see that moron

:11:00.:11:03.

Wednesday. It is just not him. I hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I

:11:04.:11:16.

hope you're right that we do actually engage on emotion. So far

:11:17.:11:19.

with UKIP, our policy has been to insult them. It does not work. I

:11:20.:11:24.

know that from my constituency. We have to say to them, there is a

:11:25.:11:29.

wider Tory family, we understand you are patria, we understand you are

:11:30.:11:32.

worried about your family, and we do the same. What does it tell us about

:11:33.:11:37.

the state of the Tories, seven months from the election, the

:11:38.:11:40.

economy is going well, they are not that far behind Labour, and yet

:11:41.:11:43.

there is all sorts of leadership speculation? It is extraordinary.

:11:44.:11:48.

They are doing well, they are in with a shout. It depends. UKIP has

:11:49.:11:57.

to be kept below 9% of. -- below 9%. I think David Cameron is one of

:11:58.:12:04.

the few who speaks human, actually talks quite well to people and does

:12:05.:12:09.

not look like a swivel-eyed loons. Whereas a lot of people behind him

:12:10.:12:14.

do. You look at Duncan Smith and Eric Pickles, they are all kind of

:12:15.:12:18.

driven, ideological men, with very right-wing policies. And nice

:12:19.:12:27.

people! Don't hold back! He is not the Addams family, he is basically

:12:28.:12:30.

quite human. I think a lot of people do not realise how ideological he is

:12:31.:12:35.

himself and how well he has led his party in the direction they all want

:12:36.:12:40.

to go. You go on about him being this metropolitan moderniser, I do

:12:41.:12:43.

not think that is what he is, really. It may not be visible from

:12:44.:12:47.

the guardian offices in the metropolis! Everybody where you are,

:12:48.:12:52.

Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser. And where you are, too. That is the

:12:53.:12:58.

nature of living in London. The trouble is, when these people get

:12:59.:13:02.

into Westminster, they are part of Westminster, too. If you could only

:13:03.:13:06.

win by being an outsider, the moment you get in, you are done for. All

:13:07.:13:11.

teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson to be the next leader? I do not

:13:12.:13:20.

think so! The point of my Exocet, or lever, this morning, is that I think

:13:21.:13:24.

this is winnable. If we are good Tories for the next six months, we

:13:25.:13:29.

can do this. It is by denying ground to UKIP, not giving in to them, not

:13:30.:13:35.

buckling. Denying ground. Thank you to our panel. They did all right

:13:36.:13:40.

today, but the normal. That is your lot for today. I am back tomorrow.

:13:41.:13:44.

We will have live coverage of George Osborne's speech to the conference.

:13:45.:13:49.

I am back next week in Glasgow for The Sunday Politics at the Labour

:13:50.:13:52.

conference. How could you miss that? Remember, if it is Sunday it

:13:53.:13:56.

is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye of statutory press regulation in

:13:57.:14:25.

sponge cake may be a bridge too far. I think I've overdone it

:14:26.:14:40.

with the pistachios and somehow, the custard's split,

:14:41.:14:43.

but it's too late!

:14:44.:14:46.

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