24/01/2016 Sunday Politics London


24/01/2016

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Jeremy Corbyn calls on Britain to accept more refugees and economic

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migrants, as the Port of Calais is forced to close overnight

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after migrants attempted to force their way onto a Channel ferry.

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David Cameron appears increasingly confident he'll bag a deal on EU

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reform next month, including new measures to reduce EU migration

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In the first of three Sunday Politics debates,

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the leave and remain campaigns go head-to-head on immigration.

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And speaking exclusively to this programme, Ed Miliband's former

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pollster Deborah Mattinson criticises Labour's official report

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into why the party lost the general election for failing to face up

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I think it was a whitewash and a massive missed opportunity.

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The Conservative's 7/7 candidate has now launched his

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-- the conservative's Mayor candidate has now launched his

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action plan. And with me, as always,

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the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

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Nick Watt, Beth Rigby and Janan They'll be tweeting

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throughout the programme So, the Port of Calais was forced

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to close for a while yesterday after migrants managed to breach

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security and board a ferry. Amateur footage captured

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the moment a group managed to break through security fences and head

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towards the P ferry. The incident happened

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during a protest at the port, The head of the Road Haulage

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Association here in Britain has renewed demands for the French

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military to intervene. As it happens,

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the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was in northern France yesterday,

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visiting the migrant camps While he was there,

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he reiterated his calls for the British Government to do

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more to help migrants. I talk to people all over

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the country and not everyone is that cold-hearted, not everyone

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else has a stony heart. They are prepared to reach out,

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and I think we need a response And indeed Germany has

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done an enormous amount, other countries have

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done varying amounts, and I think we should

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be part of helping to bring a European-wide support

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to people, and that's what I'm Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Beth, what

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we make of the story, the government will allow unaccompanied children

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refugees, already in Europe, to come into Britain? Some of my government

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sources have suggested that is not what David Cameron would like to do,

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if you think about how he dealt with the crisis in August, he said we

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will take some Syrian refugees but we will take them from the camps in

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Syria and around Syria, we will not take them from Calais, because he

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thinks this is a push factor and it makes people come over. What the

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government might end up doing, they might agree to take refugee children

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unaccompanied, but only from Syria and the Middle East, not from

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Calais. What about the kids who have made it here? They could be bad way.

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Nick? The signals on government, they have not made any decisions yet

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and the announcement is not imminent, but Beth makes a very

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important point, the Prime Minister said you do not want to encourage

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people to make that journey, therefore the instinct is to take

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people from the neighbouring countries. Apart from unaccompanied

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kids, they have come across in terrible conditions, and they are in

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Calais and Dunkirk. The call to take these children, from that report,

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that says that is a fair proportion of the 26,000 unaccompanied children

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that have come to Europe. The figures in that report are

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terrifying, in 2014, of the 13,000 unaccompanied children that ended up

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in Italy, 3000 went missing, and of the African children that went to

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Italy, half of them had been subject to some form of sexual abuse, it is

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the most horrific figures. That 3000 figure, endorsed by Jeremy Corbyn,

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also endorsed by the cross-party International Development Select

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Committee, said there is edible pressure on the Prime Minister on

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this one. -- formidable. The humanitarian case has been strongly

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but by Jeremy Corbyn and others, but it is marginal. 3000 children, that

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would be great for them, but 37,000 migrants have come to Greece in

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January alone, and the mud has not even ended, ten times the number

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that came in last January -- the month. The problem is getting bigger

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and bigger, and the response has been wholly inadequate. It has, it

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looks marginal, but that is about as much as you can expect, until there

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is EU wide agreement about how to distribute what you might call the

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burden of the influx, but there is nothing close to that agreement and

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there's not even a deal between the EU and Turkey about ceiling borders

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and dealing with human traffickers let alone a deal within the EU about

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which country bears how much of the burden. Until then, you just have

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these improvised solutions, 3000 here, France taking a bit more, and

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there is no certainty that the unaccompanied children are

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overwhelmingly Syrian, there is the suspicion that Syrians travel as

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complete families and the unaccompanied children are

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disproportionately from Somalia, for example, similarly distress, but not

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the problem that they think they are dealing with. This plays into the

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referendum question, there is the nervousness in the in campaign, that

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a referendum in September, after a summer of large sums of migrants

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coming in, kids or otherwise, would affect the result one way or

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another. That is a big story, and we will come back to that at the end of

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the show. Last week, the long-awaited autopsy

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into Labour's defeat at the general The report by Margaret Beckett

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concluded that Ed Miliband wasn't judged to be as strong a leader

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as David Cameron, and that Labour had failed to shake off the myth

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that Labour was responsible But parallel research was also

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commissioned to inform the Beckett Report,

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and despite being completed in July, The former Labour pollster

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Deborah Mattinson carried out this research, and has spoken exclusively

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to the Sunday Politics. We are saying the Conservatives

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are the largest party. We all know what happened

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on election night. Instead of a hung parliament,

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David Cameron walked back into Downing Street

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with a majority of 12. Labour got it wrong, as well,

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suffering a net loss of 26 Friends, this is not the speech

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I wanted to give today. Ed Miliband resigned

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within hours, but it has taken eight and a half

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months for the party to publish its own inquiry

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into what went wrong. Margaret Beckett's report is called

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Learning The Lessons From Defeat. It doesn't, says one pollster,

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who has worked for several former I think it was a whitewash

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and a massive missed opportunity. Just a few weeks after the election

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defeat, Deborah Mattinson was commissioned

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by the acting leader Harriet Harman to research

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why Labour lost. She says the evidence was meant

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to feed into the Beckett I did brief Margaret

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Beckett so I was somewhat disappointed not to see some

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of that reflected back. Yes, I think she picked up

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on the economy but there was actually no analysis,

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it is reduced effectively to one And there is a lot of quite

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defensive stuff about the fact this does not necessarily

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mean that anti-austerity is wrong. "Of course we had a great business

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strategy, what a pity the voters "That was probably

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the fault of the media". Quite apologetic,

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lots of defensive stuff in there, but nothing that actually

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really shone a light on what had Do you accept that when Labour

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was last in power it No, I don't, and I know

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you might not agree with that Margaret Beckett's report

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acknowledges that Labour failed to shake what she

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describes as the myth that the party caused

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the financial crisis. But she concludes that Labour

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was not seen as anti-aspiration Deborah Mattinson says that

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for people in her focus groups Frankly, they did not trust Labour

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to manage the economy effectively, they were very

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concerned about that. In their minds, they

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are seeing a conflation between the financial crisis,

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which they do blame Labour for, rightly or wrongly,

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and their sense that Labour would waste money,

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their money, and run the economy Voters could not see

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him as Prime Minister. But Margaret Beckett

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concluded that Ed Miliband faced an exceptionally

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vitriolic and personal attack People looked at Ed Miliband

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and did not see him And if you look at every

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election since the 70s, what we see, the party that has

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the leader with the best ratings is the party that wins,

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there is no exception to that. I get it, that people weren't

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prejudiced against immigration, I get it and I understand

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the need to change. The Beckett Report acknowledges that

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Labour did not quite get it on issues like immigration

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and benefits, and that the fear of the SNP propping up a minority

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government scared off many voters. But Deborah Mattinson says Labour

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was losing support in Scotland well before the independence referendum

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and the surge in SNP support. Put simply, she said

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voters did not feel that Labour was on their side,

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and the party still does not I feel very concerned

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that the lessons will be learned and I can't see how

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they will be learned, because that was the vehicle,

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that was the moment, and if this report does not address

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those issues then I'm not No political party has a divine

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right to exist and unless Labour really listens to those voters,

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that it must persuade, it stands no chance

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of winning the next election. And we've been joined by the former

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Shadow Cabinet minister Michael Dugher - you might remember

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he was sacked by Jeremy Corbyn Deborah Mattinson says the better

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report is a whitewash, is she right? -- Beckett Report. That is a bit

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harsh, does it have all the answers, though, of course not, and I think

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Deborah Mattinson make some very fair observations in that piece, but

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what Margaret concludes in her report, it is not a massive shock to

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those of us that were knocking on doors last May and have thought long

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and hard about it since, we were not trusted enough on the economy, and

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that was the big issue, but also on immigration and welfare, we were

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seen as out of touch, and also leadership being the most important

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thing in any race. She makes those conclusions, in the report, and I

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think the key thing now, is to listen to the issues that she

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raises, but also listen to Debra and many others who have made a

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contribution since the report came out. We have got to face up to the

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difficult issues as to why we lost, if we are going to win again. Voters

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found Ed Miliband the personification of the Labour brand,

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that was the problem, well-meaning but ineffectual. I'm likely to

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deliver -- and likely to deliver on promises. Did you detect that at the

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time? I was very close to Ed Miliband and I gave him some advice,

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some of which he took and some of which he didn't. I wanted him to be

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a success, I saw him in private and you have strong he did beat, and

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often he got very unfair coverage in the media and often he did not do

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himself justice in his performances -- I saw him in private and how

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strong he did beat. The real lesson here, for any lead at the Labour

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Party can you have got to play to your strengths and you have got a

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fundamentally address your perceived weaknesses. The private polling

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showed the Tories were in the late, was that not a warning that things

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were going wrong? -- in the lead. I'm not sure how much private

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polling I was shown. You did not see this? The year before the election,

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I was appointed Shadow Secretary of State for Transport, I was not so

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much part of the central operations and I did not see private polling.

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Many of us thought that we were getting difficult conversations on

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the doorstep, but we were told consistently, including by the

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pollsters, that we were neck and neck and there was a perception that

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we were doing better in the marginals, as well. That turned out

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to be catastrophically wrong, but one of the things that is not in

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Margaret's report is about the organisational lessons, that does

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speak, if you have a million conversations, what are you doing

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with the data? I remember in the last two days of the campaign, I was

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sent to Derbyshire, Amber Valley, and in Yorkshire, to Rothwell, but I

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should have been sent to Morley to help Ed Balls, and Derby North to

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help Chris Wood this. The campaign has got to base what they do on the

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information, and in 2010 we took very hard decisions, six months away

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from polling day, based on the information we had about prioritise

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in resources, but are not sure that happens this time. -- I'm not sure.

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Deborah Mattinson looks at the boundary changes before the next

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election, and she thinks the Beckett Report made a failure to confront

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why you lost enough. Her conclusion is this, Labour's future is in

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profound jeopardy - is it? I think we have a massive challenge at the

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next election. I don't think any political party has a right to be

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successful in the future. I am an optimistic person. Labour, when we

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have got our act together, when we have been in touch with the public

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we have shown we can win. Is Labour's continued existence a

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question mark? We have got to start getting in touch with the public.

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One thing the report did slightly skirt around, the question over

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politics as an identity. People like myself have been banging on about

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this, not just in the weeks before the election but for months and

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years before, and we need to face up to that. No political party has a

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right to exist, but I think if Labour gets our act together, if we

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stop picking fights with ourselves, if we face up to the difficult

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issues in this report and elsewhere, we can be successful in the future.

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In what ways, as things stand at the moment, what ways will Labour be

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better, in better shape, under Jeremy Corbyn heading into the 2020

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election than it was in the 2015 election? What is one of the main

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conclusions from the Beckett Report, it said we did make some gains,

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1.5%, but we were stacking up area -- support in areas where we were

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already strong. If they think you are out of touch on immigration and

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welfare, you had better start talking about immigration and

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welfare. Jeremy Corbyn seems to want almost no limit on immigration, it

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is hard to detect if he would have any limits, and he is rather against

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welfare reforms. I'm not sure that is an election winning strategy. On

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immigration, I made this point to him, you have got to understand this

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is the second biggest issue nationally, it is the biggest issue

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in many constituencies including mine, and I said that many of the

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answers are about stopping pressure on wages and conditions. There are

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good centre-left solutions to these problems, about Europe dividing more

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help for communities facing these changes. I made the point to him, on

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welfare he is right to say we should be standing up to help the most

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vulnerable, but in my experience you only get heard on those issues if

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the public think you are for real in terms of wanting to be tough on

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people who are frankly making decisions not to go into work so you

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have got to get the balance right. Do you accept, given his huge

:18:20.:18:24.

support among party members, that Jeremy Corbyn will lead you into the

:18:25.:18:30.

next election? He faces a big test in May. We have seen the polls and

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the ratings, any big test is a real election. He faces a big test

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because he was clear that a left-wing agenda is the key to

:18:42.:18:45.

transforming our fortunes in Scotland, I hope he's right. We need

:18:46.:18:49.

to win in London but we have got to show we can make big gains in the

:18:50.:18:53.

rest of London as well and we have got to hold onto power in Wales as

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well. But even if he fails these tests, do you think there will be an

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attempt to remove him? We have got to get behind Jeremy and he has got

:19:06.:19:10.

to show us that he can deliver and turn things around. We need to get

:19:11.:19:15.

behind him. People are very clear about what Jeremy stands for. He has

:19:16.:19:26.

achieved remarkable cut throughs. Over the next few months we will see

:19:27.:19:29.

more of that so he has got to be given a chance because he has a huge

:19:30.:19:33.

mandate by the party members but he has got to show he can turn that

:19:34.:19:37.

into real support from the public. That means also winning the support

:19:38.:19:42.

of people who voted Conservative last time. It is not an easy

:19:43.:19:46.

challenge, we are behind him in that but he has got to show he can learn

:19:47.:19:51.

the lessons that Margaret Beckett has talked about and Debra and

:19:52.:19:56.

others as well. We have got to stop it there, thank you.

:19:57.:19:58.

The hole Labour is in is deepest in Scotland, where the once-mighty

:19:59.:20:01.

party now holds just one Westminster seat.

:20:02.:20:03.

If Jeremy Corbyn is to win the general election in 2020,

:20:04.:20:05.

he needs to claw back support from the SNP,

:20:06.:20:08.

and the first test of his appeal north of the border is coming up

:20:09.:20:11.

fast in elections to the Scottish parliament in May.

:20:12.:20:13.

Speaking to Andrew Marr this morning, the leader of the SNP took

:20:14.:20:16.

aim at Mr Corbyn, criticising a plan he's floated

:20:17.:20:20.

to keep Britain's Trident submarines minus their nuclear warheads.

:20:21.:20:23.

I wonder what you made of Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion that

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you could keep the Trident submarines, therefore keep the jobs

:20:27.:20:28.

in Scotland, but not have nuclear missiles on them.

:20:29.:20:31.

I think it was ridiculous and I think it's a sign of just how

:20:32.:20:34.

tortured these debates are becoming within the Labour Party.

:20:35.:20:37.

On Trident, I agree with Jeremy Corbyn.

:20:38.:20:39.

I'm not in favour of the renewal of Trident, and we might have a vote

:20:40.:20:43.

on that in the House of Commons sooner rather than later.

:20:44.:20:47.

I think the real challenge for Jeremy Corbyn is,

:20:48.:20:54.

can he get his party into the position he wants it to be

:20:55.:20:57.

in so we can have any chance at all of stopping

:20:58.:21:00.

For Labour to sit on the fence on this issue or have a free vote

:21:01.:21:04.

on this issue will leave them without a shred of credibility.

:21:05.:21:08.

And I've been joined now by the Shadow Scottish Secretary,

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Let's pick up on the point from Nicola Sturgeon about Trident. In

:21:12.:21:22.

Scotland the electoral choice on this is clear, if you are unilateral

:21:23.:21:29.

disarmament, you vote SNP. You couldn't vote Labour on this issue

:21:30.:21:32.

because people don't know what you stand for. The Labour Party has been

:21:33.:21:38.

clear, a motion was passed almost unanimously to reject the renewal of

:21:39.:21:43.

Trident on that policy basis. But it is not party policy. There is a

:21:44.:21:50.

policy review happening at the moment so the Scottish Labour

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Party's policy on this is clear. It is a Scottish election don't forget.

:21:55.:22:02.

These Trident issues are diverting us away from big issues of policy in

:22:03.:22:07.

terms of public services. The Deborah Mattinson research found

:22:08.:22:15.

Scottish voters felt abandoned by the Labour Party. When did Labour

:22:16.:22:19.

start taking Scottish voters for granted? It has been clear from a

:22:20.:22:24.

number of reports that have been done that there has been a process

:22:25.:22:28.

in the party where we have not devolved the party as much as

:22:29.:22:35.

Scotland. The Scottish party, in 1999 it was a tremendous opportunity

:22:36.:22:38.

for the Scottish Labour Party but I don't think we have caught up with

:22:39.:22:52.

that. I think under Kesia's leadership she is refreshing that.

:22:53.:23:03.

You face further electoral disasters in Holyrood in May. No one is under

:23:04.:23:11.

any illusion this will be a difficult election, but what Kesia

:23:12.:23:18.

is trying to do is get a positive policy platform together, reconnect

:23:19.:23:21.

with Scottish people, respond to what Scottish people have been

:23:22.:23:25.

saying on the doorsteps, and she's doing that on the basis of

:23:26.:23:29.

responding to what the Scottish people want. That's what people want

:23:30.:23:35.

to have. What the Shadow Cabinet was told by your own election director

:23:36.:23:42.

is that he expects you to lose all of your constituency MSPs, just as

:23:43.:23:46.

you lost all of your constituency MPs bar you last May. What can you

:23:47.:23:53.

do to avoid that? The important thing is to go back to Kezia

:23:54.:24:04.

Dugdale's policy. She wants to change the policies of the Scottish

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Labour Party in order for us to have a policy platform that is incredibly

:24:10.:24:16.

positive. What is the most distinctive Scottish policy

:24:17.:24:20.

initiative since Jeremy Corbyn became leader? This isn't about

:24:21.:24:25.

Jeremy Corbyn, it is about Kezia Dugdale. We have helped to buy

:24:26.:24:30.

scheme for first time buyers, we want to build 60,000 affordable

:24:31.:24:35.

homes, we want to put the 50p tax rate back in to close the

:24:36.:24:39.

educational attainment gap, they are just a few of the policies she has

:24:40.:24:44.

announced already. She is one of the few people in this election campaign

:24:45.:24:49.

actually talking about the policy issues of Scotland. Nobody is

:24:50.:24:54.

talking about these kinds of issues. Do you think that collection

:24:55.:24:57.

policies you have outlined are enough to stave off a further

:24:58.:25:02.

electoral humiliation? It is just the start of a policy platform she

:25:03.:25:06.

will be announcing in the run-up to the elections. Help to buy is a Tory

:25:07.:25:14.

policy. This is about resolving a housing crisis that has been created

:25:15.:25:18.

by an SNP government. We are not holding them to account because

:25:19.:25:26.

people are obsessing over things like polls. The transport system is

:25:27.:25:31.

creaking at the seams. This has got to be dealt with and there is a real

:25:32.:25:35.

opportunity to talk about the powers the Scottish Government currently

:25:36.:25:40.

has and new powers. Let's talk about tomorrow's Scotland. How much would

:25:41.:25:46.

a top rate 50p tax for Scotland raised? Up to 10 million, depending

:25:47.:25:52.

where you would have any change but every single penny would go into

:25:53.:25:56.

educational attainment. When the Conservatives cut the tax rate to

:25:57.:26:04.

45p, the Treasury were projecting it would cost ?3 billion a year to

:26:05.:26:08.

satisfy. That was for the whole of the UK, so 60-110,000,000 is a lot

:26:09.:26:15.

of money we can use to cut the educational attainment gap. Why is

:26:16.:26:24.

Jeremy Corbyn not cutting much ice north of the border? He has won a

:26:25.:26:28.

significant mandate within the party, he needs to win that now

:26:29.:26:32.

within the country but what we are concentrating on now is Kezia

:26:33.:26:39.

Dugdale as a new leader. I am interesting that you stress all the

:26:40.:26:47.

time Kezia Dugdale, is Jeremy Corbyn and asset or a liability in May? He

:26:48.:26:56.

is an asset because she wants us to invest in public services, he wants

:26:57.:26:59.

to use the powers in the Scottish bill to transform the Scottish

:27:00.:27:05.

Parliament... So why are the polls, if you have got Kezia Dugdale and

:27:06.:27:13.

Jeremy Corbyn doing all the right things, why are the polls so dire

:27:14.:27:19.

for you in Scotland? We will fight for every single vote and seat, we

:27:20.:27:23.

fight to win every election but whilst we are talking about polls

:27:24.:27:27.

and not holding the Scottish Government to account for a dreadful

:27:28.:27:30.

record in Government for eight years and not talking about positive

:27:31.:27:35.

policies being put forward, we will not get any traction in the polls.

:27:36.:27:39.

Let's get this campaign onto real issues that ordinary Scots want to

:27:40.:27:44.

talk about on the doorsteps, which is about holding the Government to

:27:45.:27:48.

account for a dreadful track record, and get some policies on there that

:27:49.:27:53.

says to the people the Scottish Labour Party has changed and we can

:27:54.:27:58.

talk about tomorrow's Scotland and how we can transform people's lives.

:27:59.:28:01.

Thank you. The huge influx of migrants

:28:02.:28:03.

into the EU from Syria and elsewhere is putting the future

:28:04.:28:06.

of the EU in "grave danger", that was the stark warning

:28:07.:28:08.

from the French Prime Minister Tomorrow, EU interior ministers

:28:09.:28:10.

will discuss a possible two-year suspension of the Schengen system

:28:11.:28:14.

of passport-free travel. It all comes as David Cameron seeks

:28:15.:28:15.

to put the finishing touches to a new deal for the UK

:28:16.:28:18.

inside the EU before But how is the migrant crisis

:28:19.:28:21.

affecting his renegotiation? Since January 2015, nearly 1.1

:28:22.:28:26.

million migrants have arrived in Europe, the vast

:28:27.:28:29.

majority coming by sea. The International Monetary Fund

:28:30.:28:31.

estimates that nearly 4 million migrants will have reached

:28:32.:28:35.

the EU by the end of 2017. Tomorrow, EU interior ministers

:28:36.:28:41.

will discuss a possible suspension of the passport-free Schengen area

:28:42.:28:44.

and the re-introduction of border The EU is also considering tearing

:28:45.:28:46.

up the so-called Dublin Convention and introducing a new dispersal

:28:47.:28:55.

scheme to distribute migrants more It's an extra headache

:28:56.:28:57.

for David Cameron as he seeks to renegotiate the terms

:28:58.:29:04.

of our membership of the EU. The Prime Minister's preferred

:29:05.:29:09.

option is a four-year ban on new EU migrant workers claiming

:29:10.:29:12.

in-work benefits. But that's unlikely to satisfy many

:29:13.:29:16.

Conservative backbenchers. Former Cabinet minister Liam Fox,

:29:17.:29:20.

who has already said he will campaign to leave the EU,

:29:21.:29:24.

said yesterday that he "didn't expect a British prime minister

:29:25.:29:26.

to have to take the political begging bowl around the capitals

:29:27.:29:30.

of Europe just to change our own Over the next three weekends

:29:31.:29:33.

we will be staging three debates Joining me now to discuss

:29:34.:29:40.

immigration and the EU are the Ukip MEP Diane James, who's campaigning

:29:41.:29:45.

for Britain to leave the EU, and the Conservative MP

:29:46.:29:47.

Damian Green, who supports The French prime ministers as the

:29:48.:30:04.

future the EU is in grave danger, so why would we want to stay in it? --

:30:05.:30:10.

Prime Minister says. It is useful to as, it makes us safer and more

:30:11.:30:13.

secure and more prosperous and therefore it is worth saving, from

:30:14.:30:17.

our perspective and to the other member countries. Why does it make

:30:18.:30:23.

us more secure? The way that we cooperate with other European

:30:24.:30:26.

countries, the European institutions, things like the

:30:27.:30:30.

European arrest warrant, data share, these are very useful to our police

:30:31.:30:35.

and security services. We share data with the United States, as well. But

:30:36.:30:39.

not on the same automatic basis as we do with Europe. There is

:30:40.:30:45.

automatic sharing of intelligence between Britain and the United

:30:46.:30:49.

States. There is can we have a separate treaty with them, it is not

:30:50.:30:53.

as automatic and quick. -- there is, we have a separate treaty. We can

:30:54.:30:57.

change information within minutes with other European countries, and

:30:58.:31:05.

it takes days and weeks with other countries, and that means in cases

:31:06.:31:12.

of terrorism and sadly we live in a dangerous world, with global

:31:13.:31:15.

terrorism, that kind of European cooperation is increasingly

:31:16.:31:23.

important. Diane, we face a migration crisis, what is your

:31:24.:31:26.

solution, to turn Britain into a fortress Britain? No, it isn't, but

:31:27.:31:33.

it is to regain border control for the United Kingdom, and that is a

:31:34.:31:38.

position endorsed by a number of countries, and number of member

:31:39.:31:42.

states across the EU, you have five countries which every imposed border

:31:43.:31:46.

controls to some extent. There is still free movement of people.

:31:47.:31:50.

France said last week they will extend their border control, their

:31:51.:31:53.

passport control as an emergency measure because of the terrorist

:31:54.:31:57.

attacks in Paris. Border control is needed because under the current

:31:58.:32:03.

system freedom of movement, people, services, transport, that also means

:32:04.:32:07.

freedom of movement for terrorists and weapons, that come from the

:32:08.:32:11.

Balkan states. We don't have border controls? Yes, but not sufficient,

:32:12.:32:15.

if someone comes in from the Mediterranean states or from the

:32:16.:32:20.

Balkan states, they have gained entry into the European member zone.

:32:21.:32:25.

They can't then move around. If they get their passport, ultimately...

:32:26.:32:33.

That can take ten years. It is five years in Germany, it can be granted

:32:34.:32:37.

sooner if the Dublin agreement is changed and asylum seekers get a

:32:38.:32:41.

faster processing, they can then come to the United Kingdom. It

:32:42.:32:51.

faster processing, they can then things that Niger Farage was saying

:32:52.:32:54.

about the scenes in Cologne, that was wrong. -- Nigel. The out

:32:55.:33:02.

campaign is saying that border controls are what we need, strong

:33:03.:33:05.

border controls, and pulling out of Europe would have the practical

:33:06.:33:08.

effect, our border controls which act have a, thanks to the treaty

:33:09.:33:12.

with the French government, they would certainly come back to Dover

:33:13.:33:17.

-- our border controls which we have at Calais. Migrants would find it

:33:18.:33:22.

much easier to get to this country and claim asylum here. But if they

:33:23.:33:27.

couldn't get in, they did not qualify, we would have the power to

:33:28.:33:33.

deport them? We were, after a legal process, but they would be stopped

:33:34.:33:37.

not at Calais, it would be at Dover, when they are in Britain, and once

:33:38.:33:41.

they are here they can claim asylum and because we have proper legal

:33:42.:33:45.

processes it takes a lot of time and expense to deal with that. He has

:33:46.:33:49.

all the accused me of getting my facts wrong, but he has got his

:33:50.:33:54.

facts wrong. The agreement in terms of stationing our teams and our

:33:55.:33:57.

support staff and control, in the French ports, that is a France UK

:33:58.:34:02.

agreement, it has nothing to do with the European Union. If you are

:34:03.:34:05.

suggesting that the agreement between France and the United

:34:06.:34:12.

Kingdom gets torn up because we leave the EU, that is fanciful and

:34:13.:34:14.

misleading and I don't agree with you. France signed the treatment

:34:15.:34:20.

with us as a fellow member of the EU and the French interior minister has

:34:21.:34:24.

said that they would look at the treaty, of course it would be at

:34:25.:34:27.

risk, do you think the people of Calais want that camp on their

:34:28.:34:33.

doorstep? Of course not. The French are doing us a favour. How would the

:34:34.:34:38.

renegotiation by the Prime Minister help address any of this? The area

:34:39.:34:44.

of renegotiation and this is about the extra pull factor that comes

:34:45.:34:48.

from the perception that the British benefits system is easier to access

:34:49.:34:53.

compared with other countries, and therefore there are people coming

:34:54.:34:58.

here simply to make the benefits system and I think what many people

:34:59.:35:01.

think about immigration, they are moral axed about people coming here

:35:02.:35:06.

to work and pay taxes but they don't like people coming to use the

:35:07.:35:10.

welfare system -- they are more relaxed. But it has been said this

:35:11.:35:16.

will not have a big impact, you might marginalise one pull factor,

:35:17.:35:21.

but with rises in the national minimum wage, you have increased the

:35:22.:35:25.

pull factor on the other hand. It's a boiler fairness, that is what --

:35:26.:35:31.

that is a boiler fairness, that is what people want... It is unlikely

:35:32.:35:36.

to have a big impact. This will have very little impact on the numbers. I

:35:37.:35:42.

think people can make a distinction between those who are coming here to

:35:43.:35:46.

work, who benefit our economy and benefit all of us. But we have

:35:47.:35:52.

agreed it is unlikely, even if it is fair, it is unlikely to have any

:35:53.:35:54.

impact on the numbers. We don't know. The OBR has had a good guess.

:35:55.:36:02.

They are guessing, it is a guess. Nigel Farage said he would cut

:36:03.:36:08.

immigration even if that meant lower economic growth, do you agree? There

:36:09.:36:13.

are two parts to your question, George Osborne has predicated his

:36:14.:36:19.

fiscal strategy on high numbers of immigration, but we have done this

:36:20.:36:24.

on individuals who come here on a points system to deliver real value

:36:25.:36:27.

to this country, who are not subsidised by the tax credit option

:36:28.:36:33.

and who actually meet the needs that we have in the United Kingdom, and

:36:34.:36:37.

currently, as we know, we want engineers and medics and nurses and

:36:38.:36:42.

lawyers. Ukip strategy has never been to stop those individuals

:36:43.:36:45.

coming, but what we are saying, the impact of low skilled immigration on

:36:46.:36:51.

this country is negative. That is our position. Even if it meant slow

:36:52.:36:57.

economic growth, you would still cut the numbers? It would not mean

:36:58.:37:04.

slower economic growth. We have made our position very clear in terms of

:37:05.:37:07.

the value of the money that we would not be paying in terms of membership

:37:08.:37:14.

of the EU, coming back to the United Kingdom's economy, and balancing the

:37:15.:37:17.

whole position, that would be a positive for us as a country. The

:37:18.:37:22.

Prime Minister has refused to leave a group of 40 Eurosceptic

:37:23.:37:28.

backbenchers in the Conservative Party, who want to asking to do much

:37:29.:37:33.

more. Should he not make them? The Prime Minister meets backbenchers

:37:34.:37:37.

all the time. He has not meant this group, they wrote to him in November

:37:38.:37:40.

and he has not met them. -- he has not met this group. Anyone who would

:37:41.:37:46.

like to meet the Prime Minister has ample opportunities to do so, I'm a

:37:47.:37:50.

backbencher, I can speak to the Prime Minister, and all of these

:37:51.:37:54.

points have been raised. It is possible that this story is slightly

:37:55.:37:59.

overblown. Thank you very much. We will be coming back to these stories

:38:00.:38:02.

in the weeks ahead. And next week we'll be debating

:38:03.:38:04.

the economic effects of leaving It's just gone 11.35,

:38:05.:38:07.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:08.:38:10.

in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20

:38:11.:38:13.

minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday

:38:14.:38:18.

Politics where you are. Coming up shortly, three and a half

:38:19.:38:33.

months out, Zac Goldsmith has done a formal launch of his mayoral

:38:34.:38:36.

campaign with a 4-point action plan, he will be here to chat about that

:38:37.:38:42.

in a moment. Also joining this week, David Lambie, the MP who helped he

:38:43.:38:49.

would be Labour's man from London -- David Lammy who hoped. You are

:38:50.:38:57.

trying to improve suburban rail services for London. The creation of

:38:58.:39:03.

what will be called a London suburban Metro service, with more

:39:04.:39:08.

frequent services, more reliable trains, and better interchanges and

:39:09.:39:11.

increase capacity, I sound like a press release, but you would welcome

:39:12.:39:15.

this question not the old North London line which is running better,

:39:16.:39:22.

even though there are still delays, but the integration with the

:39:23.:39:24.

Underground network has improved, and there are swathes of North

:39:25.:39:28.

London and stations like Canning Street, bits of Clapham Junction,

:39:29.:39:33.

that need to be part of the wider Greater London we know. Which we

:39:34.:39:37.

make into this Orange branded overground line. If it is all

:39:38.:39:42.

Orange, you cannot distinguish one line from the next! But what you

:39:43.:39:46.

need is integration so you can usual Oyster card across this, and there

:39:47.:39:51.

can be horrendous delays, especially in the south, and fix the sense of

:39:52.:39:54.

London as Greater London and not just in London. You would welcome

:39:55.:40:01.

this? Huge costs involved. Huge complexity about how you get more

:40:02.:40:06.

services on these lines without disrupting the ones who are coming

:40:07.:40:11.

in from wider outside London. Absolutely, we would really benefit,

:40:12.:40:14.

we have a number of suburban services and also services coming

:40:15.:40:17.

from the south coast. We have massive problems with overcrowding

:40:18.:40:21.

and with insufficiency of services, and there will be issues with how

:40:22.:40:27.

the contract for TFL actually works with whoever wins the franchise for

:40:28.:40:30.

the south-western service, and we might be one of the first areas to

:40:31.:40:35.

benefit. This is just a consultation, before we start

:40:36.:40:38.

running away with this, this only affects a limited number of lines,

:40:39.:40:42.

not lines which are starting in Brighton, just the inner services.

:40:43.:40:48.

Precisely, but they are used by a lot of people and there will be a

:40:49.:40:52.

lot of support for this. David was talking about previous campaigns,

:40:53.:40:56.

and there is a lot of support for this. Now we can move on. Boris

:40:57.:41:03.

Johnson's mayoralty is like a washing machine entering its final

:41:04.:41:08.

spin cycle, and attention turns to who will succeed him, Zac Goldsmith

:41:09.:41:14.

is behind Sadiq Khan of Labour according to the little available

:41:15.:41:18.

polling so far, but this week he held a formal launch of his action

:41:19.:41:23.

plan from London. Behind in the polls but taking the fight to

:41:24.:41:26.

Labour, that was the message from Zac Goldsmith's policy launch this

:41:27.:41:30.

week. I'm launching my action plan from London, more homes, better

:41:31.:41:35.

transport, cleaner air, safer streets, this is what I will deliver

:41:36.:41:41.

if I'm elected in May, no doubt. He says he wants to double

:41:42.:41:45.

house-building to 50,000 new homes and year, increase capacity on the

:41:46.:41:48.

transport network and the number green spaces in London, and keeping

:41:49.:41:54.

officers on the street. -- new homes year. Labour were quick to

:41:55.:41:59.

criticise, saying the launch was thin on Peter, making no mention of

:42:00.:42:03.

the number of affordable homes or social housing he would build, and

:42:04.:42:07.

containing no detail about rising transport fares -- thin on detail.

:42:08.:42:13.

The difference between myself and my rival, I can deliver, I can hold the

:42:14.:42:18.

government to account and get a good deal on the government, like shown I

:42:19.:42:23.

can do that. He says by working with his Conservative colleagues he has

:42:24.:42:25.

managed to secure changes to government policy already, meaning

:42:26.:42:29.

every high-value council home sold under the new right to buy will be

:42:30.:42:32.

replaced by two new affordable homes. And a commitment that all

:42:33.:42:37.

trials but the London services will need half of trade union members to

:42:38.:42:41.

vote for industrial action before a striking go-ahead. -- all trials but

:42:42.:42:50.

the London services. -- transport for London services. This is

:42:51.:42:56.

posturing. We have returned a ballot result of 93% from 83% turnout,

:42:57.:42:59.

twice the dress shall they are setting out, and so it Zac Goldsmith

:43:00.:43:04.

would like to be taken seriously as a candidate, you should be thinking

:43:05.:43:07.

about how to improve industrial nations, not just posturing for

:43:08.:43:12.

political sound bites. -- twice the threshold by setting. Both Labour

:43:13.:43:21.

and Conservatives are accused of making this campaign about

:43:22.:43:23.

personalities and not policy. In what some have said is a campaign

:43:24.:43:30.

short on new ideas. Zac Goldsmith is here. One new idea that did, from

:43:31.:43:37.

what you said, this week, the idea of banning foreigners, that is what

:43:38.:43:41.

the headline was, that you would offer to sell properties built on

:43:42.:43:46.

public land in London, to Londoners first. Family properties can you do?

:43:47.:43:56.

-- how many. In all? Yes. We need about 50,000 a year. We think on TFL

:43:57.:44:02.

land, the Laing commission has not reported yet, we do not know how

:44:03.:44:05.

much land there is at the moment -- the land commission. If you put all

:44:06.:44:11.

the TFL land together it will be the equivalent of the Borough of Camden,

:44:12.:44:15.

we think, and the figure we have been given is 15,000 a year on

:44:16.:44:20.

mayoral land. Not 50,000, as was reported by some newspapers. Yes, I

:44:21.:44:27.

saw that. You seems to endorse that. 50,000 homes we need each year. On

:44:28.:44:32.

this public land, you have a pretty good idea? We are talking about TFL

:44:33.:44:39.

land, not GLA. TFL planned, they say they can build 10,000 homes in ten

:44:40.:44:44.

years, Zac Goldsmith says he can do 15,000 on this home in four years.

:44:45.:44:50.

That is based on all kinds of assumptions which I challenge, we

:44:51.:44:54.

could extend the Sutton trembling, to deliver 20,000 homes, but the

:44:55.:44:59.

money is not their -- the Sutton tram link. You could extend that

:45:00.:45:03.

line in four years? We could borrow against future property taxes, that

:45:04.:45:07.

is why I took the Chancellor to Sutton to make this case, I cannot

:45:08.:45:11.

say that we have one Zeidan, but he came to hear the wings, to hear the

:45:12.:45:15.

case, and that is a very good sign -- I cannot say we have won the hard

:45:16.:45:17.

men. Very ambitious. If it wasn't difficult, it would

:45:18.:45:32.

have already been done. Are these all going to be to buy? There will

:45:33.:45:40.

be a mixture. You will need to have two rent there as well. I said on my

:45:41.:45:47.

list of priorities that you need to have affordable, market,

:45:48.:45:53.

intermediate and in each of those categories for sale and for rent.

:45:54.:45:57.

Are you saying it should be for people who have lived and worked in

:45:58.:46:01.

London for three years? What's the deal? All of the details of this

:46:02.:46:08.

will emerge in the manifesto? Have they been worked out? Mostly worked

:46:09.:46:16.

out. For example pocket homes are sold to Londoners, this was a

:46:17.:46:20.

condition imposed by some of the boroughs in which they operate so

:46:21.:46:27.

for Ealing residents they are selling for around ?150,000 without

:46:28.:46:33.

subsidy. In Camden they are around ?240,000. For people who can show

:46:34.:46:38.

they have been resident here for three years. Not working as well?

:46:39.:46:50.

Yes, for three years. Not necessarily working as well? We

:46:51.:46:56.

haven't briefed any details because we will release them in the

:46:57.:47:02.

manifesto. There's no point using up valuable public land building homes,

:47:03.:47:08.

then having them bought by... Presumably EU citizens could apply

:47:09.:47:15.

for this? Yes. Presumably a Chinese millionaire whose daughter is

:47:16.:47:20.

working here as a chemist. We are trying to prevent a situation where

:47:21.:47:23.

a valuable public assets are developed, the homes are built on

:47:24.:47:31.

board by overseas investors. It may be an exaggerated political concern

:47:32.:47:35.

in some quarters but it is causing massive resentment across London.

:47:36.:47:40.

Boris Johnson says there is no real problem, it involves a tiny

:47:41.:47:46.

percentage. We don't have the figures on that. I don't agree it is

:47:47.:47:50.

not a problem, I think it is a problem, and a cause of real

:47:51.:47:55.

resentment. In surgery I had someone earning more than double the average

:47:56.:47:59.

London salary, moving out of London because he cannot afford a home.

:48:00.:48:05.

That is a crisis. In your last year you will be able to be building

:48:06.:48:13.

50,000 homes where about half of that, you say a significant number

:48:14.:48:19.

will be affordable rent. What is your minimum target? I think the

:48:20.:48:26.

Olympic Park is a good indication, a Labour-controlled council. Over

:48:27.:48:29.

10,000 homes have been built and it is based on the criteria for a third

:48:30.:48:37.

affordable, the third intermediate, and a third market. So that will be

:48:38.:48:45.

your model? It is a model but I'm nervous of targets because they

:48:46.:48:51.

don't work. Ken Livingstone, I'm going to make a political point, it

:48:52.:48:55.

made ambitious targets around affordability, didn't get close to

:48:56.:48:59.

meeting them, Boris Johnson made no targets... There is an assumption

:49:00.:49:05.

that 25% at least should be affordable. Give me a commitment on

:49:06.:49:10.

what percentage you would guarantee would be for affordable rent. I'm

:49:11.:49:16.

not going to give a commitment. Or and aspirations. The Olympic Park is

:49:17.:49:23.

a model that works. The entire emphasis of my focus on housing will

:49:24.:49:28.

be to deal with this issue of affordability, where Londoners on

:49:29.:49:31.

average salaries cannot afford to live in their own city. That is a

:49:32.:49:37.

social and business crisis, so the entire emphasis on my housing

:49:38.:49:44.

programme will be to enable Londoners... The point you made on

:49:45.:49:52.

Tuesday, you made again today, is that you are the person through

:49:53.:49:56.

persuasion and cooperation with the Government, you can persuade the

:49:57.:50:00.

Government to deliver on really important things on housing, three

:50:01.:50:04.

of them. You have said you will get two properties built for one that

:50:05.:50:09.

gets sold off under these rights to buy plans. You haven't got a

:50:10.:50:14.

commitment they will be rented, you haven't got a commitment. The money

:50:15.:50:18.

raised from the sale of properties will stay in London. These are the

:50:19.:50:23.

crucial areas and you haven't persuaded anyone. If you're asking

:50:24.:50:28.

me to justify the entire housing bill, I'm not going to do that. I

:50:29.:50:33.

want to knock that Bill into shape so it works for London. But you

:50:34.:50:38.

haven't done that. They want a guaranteed before we go to the polls

:50:39.:50:42.

that if you keep that money in London and you get those two

:50:43.:50:47.

properties, they are for rent and in the same area as the one they lost.

:50:48.:50:52.

It is not a perfect bill but I have massively improved it for London.

:50:53.:51:00.

Even organisations like Shelter will say so, even organisations that are

:51:01.:51:04.

massively unhappy with the bill. I have assured that the money will not

:51:05.:51:09.

be siphoned away to the disadvantage of London. We keep 7% of our taxes,

:51:10.:51:19.

but in this instance it means we have a guarantee now. It is a

:51:20.:51:23.

guarantee that every high-value council homes sold will bring two

:51:24.:51:33.

affordable homes being built. It doesn't amount to much. How is Zac

:51:34.:51:46.

defining affordability? How many houses? Do you believe in social

:51:47.:51:51.

houses? Why have you extended right to buy? These are the big questions

:51:52.:51:58.

and you are not answering them. Social housing is of course an

:51:59.:52:02.

extraordinarily part of London's housing mix, and on average across

:52:03.:52:06.

London nearly a third of our homes are social houses. The reality is

:52:07.:52:11.

the constituent I met this morning earning over the average salary will

:52:12.:52:23.

not be able to afford houses. So over the next four years your

:52:24.:52:26.

emphasis will be very much on houses to sell. Affordability is absolutely

:52:27.:52:35.

crucial. But you are not giving any assurances about social rented. If

:52:36.:52:42.

you are going to reduce this argument down to market versus

:52:43.:52:46.

social, you will miss out the majority of people in the middle.

:52:47.:52:50.

When viewers hear you say affordable, they want to know what

:52:51.:52:54.

you mean by that and you are not defining it. They want to know

:52:55.:52:58.

genuinely how you will build and where you will get the money. Sadiq

:52:59.:53:03.

Khan said he will get a bond issued. Where is the money coming from?

:53:04.:53:15.

James and I part represent Kingston. If you put a 20% discount on one of

:53:16.:53:20.

those homes they are not affordable. The legal definition is the one you

:53:21.:53:23.

have just given but I don't believe you can have a legal definition that

:53:24.:53:27.

is meaningful for Londoners because London is too diverse. I gave an

:53:28.:53:35.

example of pocket homes. The 20% discount in one area will be

:53:36.:53:38.

meaningful, in another area it won't. What do you want in your neck

:53:39.:53:44.

of the woods? Do you want to see the emphasis shift towards that

:53:45.:53:50.

ownership? Are you not at all concerned about how little emphasis

:53:51.:53:54.

there might be on affordable or social rented housing? I don't think

:53:55.:54:04.

there is a lack of concern. In Kingston, the biggest issue is

:54:05.:54:07.

housing. Our authority is building more housing. It is building housing

:54:08.:54:18.

at 40% of the market rate? Yes, and they have plans for a scheme that

:54:19.:54:22.

will involve making our current state higher density with higher

:54:23.:54:26.

quality homes. Are you concerned spare bits of land will be used for

:54:27.:54:32.

starter homes? Local authorities will be hamstrung in getting money

:54:33.:54:43.

for affordable homes? I know people whose kids are desperate for starter

:54:44.:54:47.

homes, it is important we have them, it is about a mix of affordable to

:54:48.:54:54.

buy and affordable to rent. Where are you, what kind of commitment? We

:54:55.:55:01.

had a Conservative MP here last week who said what -- to listen out to

:55:02.:55:16.

you for a statement on fares. I know that I face an election in 13 or 14

:55:17.:55:21.

weeks' time and a lot of people would like to hear me say I will cut

:55:22.:55:26.

the cost of travel, but I know that if I were to make that pledge either

:55:27.:55:31.

I would break it if I got elected or it would be catastrophic for London

:55:32.:55:35.

if I didn't break it. We have been talking about housing but the only

:55:36.:55:39.

way we will be able to deliver the housing solution is by unlocking

:55:40.:55:45.

land... Which is why I'm wondering if you will let people know, we need

:55:46.:55:52.

to expect realistically... Realistically we cannot expect fares

:55:53.:55:56.

to stay where they are. Can we expect them to go up by a rate above

:55:57.:56:01.

inflation? We haven't been through the figures of course, which is why

:56:02.:56:07.

I'm resisting making a pledge. Sadiq Khan has not been through the

:56:08.:56:11.

figures either. I don't believe any of the other candidates have had

:56:12.:56:14.

access, let alone had time to go through the figures. I'm not making

:56:15.:56:20.

a pledge because it is not an honest thing to do. I have not met the

:56:21.:56:24.

Labour figure in London who believes it is possible to freeze fares as

:56:25.:56:29.

Sadiq Khan has promised he would. We will be speaking to him next week

:56:30.:56:33.

and we will try to establish that. ?2 billion out of the budget, so

:56:34.:56:40.

what will you then not do? Is it the overground to Barking, is it the

:56:41.:56:44.

night tube? Why aren't you saying to government you cannot afford to take

:56:45.:56:51.

something out? You work within the envelope set by government. I

:56:52.:56:56.

thought you were independent, I thought you would stand up and be

:56:57.:57:01.

awkward. My job is to make sure it is as big an envelope as possible. I

:57:02.:57:08.

have protected the police budget... Very briefly because everyone is

:57:09.:57:12.

talking about the possibility of the European referendum being in June.

:57:13.:57:17.

Everyone knows you are Eurosceptic, but what do you say? Do you have a

:57:18.:57:22.

view about the timing of that? Because you need to get people

:57:23.:57:30.

focused on your contest? London faces a massive decision in May. We

:57:31.:57:35.

boomed for eight years under Boris but people are priced out of their

:57:36.:57:39.

own city. Do we want to make those successes work for everyone in

:57:40.:57:46.

London or make a big risk? That will be my focus. And when you take it to

:57:47.:57:50.

London we hope you will come back and take it to our viewers.

:57:51.:57:56.

Come back between now and May. So, what else has been happening in the

:57:57.:58:01.

political sphere? Here is what, in 60 seconds.

:58:02.:58:07.

?20 million will be spent on giving Muslim women who cannot speak

:58:08.:58:10.

English the chance to learn the language. The aim, the Government

:58:11.:58:16.

claims, is to create a more cohesive society and counter extremism.

:58:17.:58:17.

London colleges say society and counter extremism.

:58:18.:58:26.

million and new money is just replacing what has been lost.

:58:27.:58:31.

Transport for London has rejected proposals that would have severely

:58:32.:58:38.

restricted Uber. The private hire company has proposed a ban on apps

:58:39.:58:45.

being able to show where their nearby vehicles were.

:58:46.:58:48.

According to the office for National Statistics, overall crime in London

:58:49.:58:53.

is up 5% on violent crime and sexual offences have risen by over 20% in

:58:54.:58:58.

the capital in the 12 months recorded to September 20 15. Gun

:58:59.:59:11.

crime in London is up 10%. David, Muslim women, help with their

:59:12.:59:16.

language skills, what do you think? It is an old issue. We had great

:59:17.:59:23.

funding under Labour, they were cut savagely, they don't exist any more

:59:24.:59:28.

across London and the country. Worse than that, they have cut the FE

:59:29.:59:35.

budget by half in some constituencies so to talk about

:59:36.:59:38.

giving Muslim women in English when all of the money has disappeared,

:59:39.:59:43.

but also when you are not demonstrating you understand the

:59:44.:59:46.

complexities of these women, many of whom speak wonderful English in

:59:47.:59:50.

fact, I think is degrading, patronising and just dishonest. Do

:59:51.:59:58.

you feel that as well? Not at all, I think it is a positive announcement.

:59:59.:00:02.

It is a shame David does not back the additional funding for English

:00:03.:00:06.

language teaching which is really important for social integration. A

:00:07.:00:21.

quick word on Uber, are you a fan? I normally take the train, but I think

:00:22.:00:26.

you need both really. Black Caps are great for me when hail one in

:00:27.:00:32.

somewhere like Kingston, Uber will be generally more convenient. Black

:00:33.:00:36.

Caps are iconic, we wouldn't want to see them go. Uber have filled an

:00:37.:00:45.

important gap in the market. They don't pay any tax in this country. I

:00:46.:00:52.

don't know if that is true or not so I can't count to you. We are seeing

:00:53.:00:55.

many black cab companies disappearing. I don't buy a complete

:00:56.:01:03.

deregulated market. We should be very concerned that TfL's small

:01:04.:01:09.

attempts to rein this back have been undermined this week.

:01:10.:01:13.

Thank you. We are hoping next week we will have Sadiq Khan, Labour's

:01:14.:01:18.

candidate in the hot seat, until then, back to you, Andrew.

:01:19.:01:24.

Can David Cameron keep his party together in the run-up

:01:25.:01:27.

Will the SNP stymie the PM's plans for a summer vote?

:01:28.:01:33.

And who will go along to John McDonnell's economics roadshow?

:01:34.:01:35.

Nick, Damian Green downplayed the 40 Eurosceptics who have written to the

:01:36.:01:51.

Prime Minister, asking for a meeting. Is he right? Is there a

:01:52.:01:59.

serious division for the Tories? It was a very diplomatic response from

:02:00.:02:02.

Damian Green, but what Downing Street would say about the letter

:02:03.:02:05.

from John Barron, what is the point of meeting him and his 40 merry

:02:06.:02:09.

friends, because I want to get Britain out and they have always

:02:10.:02:12.

wanted to do so and the demands they are tabling in that letter, to have

:02:13.:02:16.

primacy of the UK Parliament over EU law is not in the negotiation and is

:02:17.:02:20.

not going to happen, but there is a port in point. David Cameron was

:02:21.:02:25.

dismissive of John Barron in the House of Commons and he needs to

:02:26.:02:30.

maybe occasionally show a bit more charm and listening to those kind of

:02:31.:02:35.

people. -- important point. They are on the other side of the prime

:02:36.:02:38.

Minster, but he has got to manage the process carefully and he needs

:02:39.:02:42.

to avoid a civil war, and he can avoid that if all sides are

:02:43.:02:47.

respected in this debate. Presumably the 40 that signed our hard-core

:02:48.:02:51.

Eurosceptic but there are more Eurosceptics. Even if David Cameron

:02:52.:02:58.

gets all of what he is asking for, how many Conservative MPs will still

:02:59.:03:04.

want to come out? Going back to the John Barenboim, the 40 that have

:03:05.:03:09.

signed that letter, Downing Street have put them to one side -- John

:03:10.:03:14.

Barron point. The battle for the party, what do you do with those,

:03:15.:03:18.

maybe a third of the party, that would be minded to leave, maybe

:03:19.:03:28.

100-100 and 50 MPs, George Osborne was talking about emergency brakes

:03:29.:03:31.

on legislation, if things are coming through from Brussels which the

:03:32.:03:36.

British don't want. They still think that the negotiation really is in

:03:37.:03:40.

play and what we have to do is try and pick off moderate Eurosceptics

:03:41.:03:44.

and give them a package which they can get behind and then we need to

:03:45.:03:50.

accept that there will be 40 hard-core people that we could never

:03:51.:03:55.

placate. In the David Cameron nightmare, that is the potential

:03:56.:03:59.

backdrop to the referendum, the French Prime Minister has said

:04:00.:04:03.

Europe is in grave danger and we have had President task of the

:04:04.:04:07.

council say that we have only got a couple of months to sort out the

:04:08.:04:12.

immigration issue -- Donald Tusk. The Dutch Prime Minister has given

:04:13.:04:16.

warnings, as well. If there's a sense that Europe is falling

:04:17.:04:20.

especially regarding migration, Schengen is swept away, as it might

:04:21.:04:24.

be tomorrow, that is not a way to win a referendum. It is a huge

:04:25.:04:29.

advantage for the Brexit campaign and it distinguishes them from their

:04:30.:04:33.

predecessors of 20 years ago, leaving the EU back then was seen as

:04:34.:04:37.

a pessimistic thing to do, but now you can almost support Brexit

:04:38.:04:41.

because you think, why chain yourself to a continent which is

:04:42.:04:44.

losing, when there's so much dynamism in the world elsewhere? The

:04:45.:04:51.

characteristic of the Brexit campaign is the challenge David

:04:52.:04:54.

Cameron has got to summer, it cannot say they are entirely insular any

:04:55.:04:59.

more. -- has got to surmount. I thought the internal Tory problem

:05:00.:05:06.

with the explosive, if not a big split, but like a rolling crisis

:05:07.:05:11.

from the 1990s, but I no longer think that is true, the fact they

:05:12.:05:15.

know they can expect to be in government until at least 2025, they

:05:16.:05:19.

can maintain basic adhesion because of the weakness of the Labour Party

:05:20.:05:23.

and that is a contrast with the 90s -- basic cohesion. Cameron will look

:05:24.:05:30.

like he is losing control, but there will not be anything existential

:05:31.:05:35.

going on for the party. We believe the government is anxious to get it

:05:36.:05:39.

out of the way by the end of June, may be the first week of July.

:05:40.:05:44.

Nicola Sturgeon said some interesting things on the Andrew

:05:45.:05:47.

Marr show, about the timetable for the referendum. We had a negative

:05:48.:05:54.

feeling campaign from the no campaign and they almost lost, in

:05:55.:06:00.

the referendum for Europe, the campaigns are much closer to start

:06:01.:06:03.

with, and if the in campaign falls into the trap of the no campaign I

:06:04.:06:09.

fear it will lose. Nicola Sturgeon has said that she does not want a

:06:10.:06:14.

June referendum and she feels that is too soon. You can say, that is

:06:15.:06:19.

the view of the First Minister, she doesn't have a vote in parliament,

:06:20.:06:25.

but it have more significance. I was briefed last week by senior Scottish

:06:26.:06:31.

Nationalist who said this, "Many conservatives will not want a June

:06:32.:06:35.

referendum and the risk epics want more time to layout their case --

:06:36.:06:41.

Eurosceptics want more time to layout their case". The Scottish

:06:42.:06:51.

Nationalists will not help to vote by voting for a June referendum. The

:06:52.:06:57.

SNP could try and turn this into a vote in the house and then it

:06:58.:06:59.

depends on what Labour do, do they want to have it in June or later? I

:07:00.:07:05.

think the Eurosceptics are so focused on trying to get this

:07:06.:07:09.

referendum through, I don't think them as long as they feel they have

:07:10.:07:16.

the campaign in time that they want, the four-month period, I think they

:07:17.:07:19.

will go for it. I'm not sure that is true. Given the divisions in the

:07:20.:07:25.

Eurosceptics side at the moment, and the out campaign, I think they need

:07:26.:07:32.

longer to get there ducks in a row and they feel the best time for them

:07:33.:07:35.

to fight is after there has been another major migration crisis in

:07:36.:07:43.

the summer, people will not on their side of the ardent when that

:07:44.:07:50.

happens. That might be true. -- of the argument. But they cannot argue

:07:51.:07:56.

for a delay in some ways, but I do feel that Nicola Sturgeon's

:07:57.:07:59.

intervention is significant and the pressure on the Prime Minister to

:08:00.:08:02.

listen to what she is saying, will not so much come in parliament, it

:08:03.:08:06.

could come from the electoral commission, which has already said

:08:07.:08:09.

they cannot have the referendum in May as the same time as the devolved

:08:10.:08:13.

elections, and if you have Nicola Sturgeon, Arlene Foster, the First

:08:14.:08:18.

Minister of Northern Ireland, and Karen Jones can be First Minister of

:08:19.:08:21.

Wales Coulibaly said they think this is over complicating -- First

:08:22.:08:27.

Minister of Wales, if they all said they think this is over, catering,

:08:28.:08:31.

because it would happen at the same time as the devolved elections -- if

:08:32.:08:35.

they all said this is overcompensated. That would be

:08:36.:08:39.

significant, we could be bouncing into September. They have said they

:08:40.:08:45.

do not want the overlap, there should be a clear gap between the

:08:46.:08:48.

referendum campaign and the local elections, the assembly come and the

:08:49.:08:53.

Parliamentary elections in Scotland. They have a low view of the ability

:08:54.:08:59.

of the electorate to distinguish between elections, I do think

:09:00.:09:06.

Nicolas -- Nicola Sturgeon is an obstacle, but the biggest obstacle

:09:07.:09:11.

will be David Cameron and what he can get from the EU. You don't think

:09:12.:09:16.

it will be a done deal pretty much they are putting a lot of weight

:09:17.:09:23.

white -- you don't think it will be a done deal? They are putting a lot

:09:24.:09:28.

of weight on one summit, but the next summit that matters, it only

:09:29.:09:32.

takes one delay for us to move beyond June and then into September.

:09:33.:09:37.

I thought 2017 would be more likely, I have slightly revised that view,

:09:38.:09:42.

but I don't think June is possible. We have leave, and several out

:09:43.:09:51.

campaigns, and we have got one which is called grassroots out. Liam Fox,

:09:52.:10:01.

Conservative, Nigel Farage, Kate Hoey from Labour was there, it was

:10:02.:10:08.

launched yesterday. At some stage they have got to consult them if

:10:09.:10:12.

they want to be serious and marshal their resources, they have got to

:10:13.:10:18.

have a single campaign? And by law they have got through, the electoral

:10:19.:10:22.

commission is going to have two designate a campaign on either side.

:10:23.:10:25.

It is pretty clear that the inside are coalescing around the Britain

:10:26.:10:30.

stronger in Europe group, but on the outside there is not that agreement

:10:31.:10:33.

and there is feuding between these groups and they're going to have to

:10:34.:10:36.

reach agreement. The problem they have, who is going to lead them?

:10:37.:10:40.

Nigel Lawson is a key figure and he says they will get a senior Cabinet

:10:41.:10:44.

minister, but I said the most senior Cabinet minister who will go for

:10:45.:10:48.

Brexit, in Duncan Smith, do his own thing, which leaves you with Chris

:10:49.:10:54.

Grayling -- Iain Duncan Smith. And also Theresa Villiers. They will go

:10:55.:11:00.

up against the leader of the in campaign who is someone called David

:11:01.:11:06.

Cameron, and so they really do need to get unity. Vote Labour say they

:11:07.:11:14.

are more grown-up, -- vote leave say they are more grown-up, for example.

:11:15.:11:19.

Some are said to me the other day that Chris Grayling's view is that

:11:20.:11:22.

many senior figures in the party should be voices. In other words he

:11:23.:11:28.

was suggesting he did not want to leave and they would not be one

:11:29.:11:32.

senior Cabinet minister that was going to champion it which gives

:11:33.:11:36.

them another problem. The organisational, factional

:11:37.:11:42.

differences make much less difference in who you have as your

:11:43.:11:46.

voice, it could be a very prominent businessperson, for example, the

:11:47.:11:52.

head of a major company. Who knows how to bend opinion. That is not

:11:53.:11:57.

true of many business people. They could talk about the economic risk.

:11:58.:12:02.

The state in campaign was launched by Stuart Rose. And it was a

:12:03.:12:07.

disaster. It was a disastrous launch will stop you going to John

:12:08.:12:17.

McDonnell's economic seminar? I'm washing my hair. He was to get out

:12:18.:12:24.

of the -- he says he would like to get out of the Westminster bubble,

:12:25.:12:31.

he has only got to the West End, but he has got out there. You don't want

:12:32.:12:36.

to come? There are many people worried about Jeremy Corbyn's

:12:37.:12:39.

leadership in the Labour Party, but they are encouraged about the

:12:40.:12:44.

seminars, the economics panel, he has got an incredibly serious group

:12:45.:12:47.

of people, is opening up these seminars and they are encouraged.

:12:48.:12:54.

There was a good piece in the Sunday Times about whether there is a good

:12:55.:12:58.

deal with Google and whether this is such a good deal for the British

:12:59.:13:03.

taxpayer. I can feel I'm going to be on my own. Anyway, it has sold out,

:13:04.:13:06.

there is no room for you. Jo Coburn will be back

:13:07.:13:09.

with the Daily Politics And I'll be back here on BBC One

:13:10.:13:13.

next Sunday Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:14.:13:18.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:19.:13:29.

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