13/03/2016 Sunday Politics London


13/03/2016

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Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

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begins a new drive urging Scots to support what she calls

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"the beautiful dream" of independence.

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Tough talk from George Osborne ahead of his Budget on Wednesday.

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The Chancellor wants us to live within our means.

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Fighting talk too, from the man in his shadow.

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John McDonnell wants to revive Labour's economic credibility.

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And does Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party have a problem

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Labour students at Oxford are already being investigated

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and now party students at another university will also face scrutiny.

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Could Brexit cost the capital billions of pounds in infrastructure

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And with me three Fleet Street journos, living the dream.

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Nick Watt, Julia Harley-Brewer and Tim Shipman.

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For the rest of us, it is a bit of a nightmare!

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So, four months ago, George Osborne sounded upbeat

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Writing in the Sun on Sunday, ahead of Wednesday's Budget,

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the Chancellor says the world is facing its most uncertain period

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He says Britain has to act now, rather than pay later,

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Let's listen to the Chancellor on the Marr Show a little earlier.

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I think the world is a much more difficult and dangerous place.

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My message in this Budget is that the world is a more

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uncertain place than at any time since the financial crisis.

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We need to act now so we don't pay later.

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That is why we need to find additional savings,

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equivalent to 50p in every ?100 the Government spends by the end

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We have got to live within our means to stay secure.

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That is the way we make Britain fit for the future.

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That was the Chancellor earlier this morning. What did we learn? He is

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preparing the ground for a very difficult budget. Why is he talking

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about the difficult global economic circumstances? We have a significant

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slowdown in China but it helps him in the EU referendum campaign. Why

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risk leaving the EU when it is difficult economic circumstances? It

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helps him with a budget. You need to expend why he was talking in the

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July budget, the Autumn Statement, targeting a 10 billion budget

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surplus by 2020 and now he will be talking back calories and ?18

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billion hole in the size of the economy. Will he be able to meet

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that surplus? He needs an alibi for that. All the global headwinds,

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problems in the emerging markets, the slowdown in China, the Eurozone

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struggling to be overwhelmed. We knew that back in July. Nothing has

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changed. The thing about George Osborne is he is a politician. It is

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always about politics. It is not ideal, coming into local elections,

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London mayoral elections, to be giving a load of cuts to public

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services and possibly tax rises. The reality is he is always looking at

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the long game and he does always play a brilliant politicians long

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game. He is looking to 2020 and does not care. He also plays a bad shot

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game. Will it be a difficult budget or will it be a steady issues

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budget? What is striking about back in this morning, at least half of it

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was about the European Union and not the budget. The rest of it was about

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the Tory leadership and him taking potshots at Boris Johnson. The

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subtext of this budget is it has been a difficult and dangerous time

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for George Osborne and his teacher. He sat there and said, I am not

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going to sit in this chair and mumble away. Who could he be talking

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about there? We were told week ago that the subtext of the budget would

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be the dangers of Brexit and the Tory leadership. It is not the

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subtext, it is the text. There is hardly anything in it in terms of

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big stuff. Steady as she goes. Can we just have another shout out for

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the brilliant headline, genius political strategist clears up mess

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made by genius political strategist. He may be nursing a little rabbit to

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surprise as always! Now, if a certain referendum had

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gone a bit differently, Scotland, would be an independent

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country in just over ten days' time. Those wanting to leave the UK didn't

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win that argument in 2014 but that hasn't dented the fortunes

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of the SNP, who are riding high It's the party's Spring Conference

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in Glasgow this weekend, and we're joined now

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from there by the First Minister Good morning. A pleasure to be with

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you, Andrew. Had the referendum gone your way, we would be ten days from

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independents. You will be taking a massive and unsustainable ?15

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billion budget deficit, 10% of Scottish GDP. What would you be

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doing to get that down? We would deal with it in the same way the UK

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dealt with its deficit in 2009/ when they had 2.2% of the GDP. -- 2009/

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2010. They will be building on the underlying fundamental strengths of

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the Scottish economy. Our this goal position has been broadly similar to

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the rest of the UK and, in some years, better than the rest of the

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UK. Onshore revenues are growing at a faster rate than the fall in

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offshore revenues. We have higher employment and faster productivity

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growth. The economy is fundamentally strong and that would have been a

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very good basis on which to become an independent country. Did you not

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oppose most efforts of the British government to get the deficit down?

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I opposed many measures that George Osborne has taken. I do not say we

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should not try to get the deficit down. I have opposed and continue to

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oppose the speed at which it is happening in the way in which it is

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happening but no one would deny that countries want to get their fiscal

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positions into a more stable condition and the UK is in right

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now. The point I'm making is the Scottish economy is fundamentally

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strong economy. Much of what I have said illustrates that point. Let's

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look at some of the things you have said. You have said most countries

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have deficits. Can you name another at Fat economy 80s after the

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financial crash that has a budget deficit of 10% of GDP. You do not

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look at just one year full if I go back to that -- two 2008, 2009, it

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was double that of Scotland. Our this goal position has been stronger

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but is not right now because of the particular issues. Is it not the

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case that Scotland's deficit now is the highest in the European Union?

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That is true, isn't it? In the year we had figures published in this

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past week, we have a very difficult and challenging set of figures. It

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is the highest. No country, whether the UK, Scotland or another EU

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country, makes judgments about that this good strength of that country

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on the strength of one year's goes. The point I am making is over the

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past ten years, our fiscal position has been broadly similar to the UK

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and coming summer beiges, has been significantly better. If you project

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forward to the next five years, the future is much more important than

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the past, onshore revenues are likely to Bath the outstrip the

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decline in offshore revenues. -- basked in the outstrip. The North

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Sea contains difficulties for those working in the North Sea and

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economies on the North East of Scotland. The economy of Scotland is

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fundamentally Scotland. The economy of Scotland is

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more than one year. You have said it is a snapshot. Without oil revenues,

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and there are no oil revenues now, without the revenues, Scotland has

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run a persistent budget deficit of over 10% every year for 13 years.

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You have a systemic deficit problem. Why should you not look at oil

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revenues? Oil revenues are there and have been contributing to the

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Treasury to the tune of ?300 billion. They are not there now.

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Without them you have run a persistent budget deficit and have

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done for 13 years. I accept it is the future that matters more than

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the past. If you look at the projections for the next five years,

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our onshore revenues, remember more than 90% of the Scottish economy

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comes from onshore and not offshore. If you look five years ahead,

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onshore revenues are projected to grow in the region of ?14 billion.

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That is many times before in offshore revenues in that period. I

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am not denying the challenge of North Sea and other countries.

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Norway is facing exactly the same challenge. Because they are better

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prepared for it and have Stuart did oil resources better, Norway, in the

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last couple of weeks true down on its massive oil fund. The powers

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that independence would have given as and we did not vote yes, we have

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had -- we would have had ability to draw down on that faster. Why are

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onshore revenues growing less strongly in Scotland than the rest

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of the UK? That is a long-standing issue. One issue at the heart of

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that is growth in the heart of London. We are seeing a narrowing in

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some of the long-standing gap there has been between aspects of the

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Scottish economy and the UK economy. If we take productivity, for a long

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time Scotland lags significantly behind the rest of the UK. Over the

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past years we have close that gap is it that can leave. We still lag

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behind our European competitors and that is a problem. I am not standing

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here denying the challenges that the Scottish economy has. In the same

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way you have been talking about the Chancellor's budget and the same way

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the UK economy has challenges and across the European Union, they have

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challenges. There are real strength is in the Scottish economy. The real

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question should be how we build on and accents are the big strengths.

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Revenues per person in Scotland where ?10,700 in the years 2011, 20

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12. They are now ?10,000, 700 ( even with the growth in revenues. The

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offshore has offset that. We still have a fundamental deficit problem.

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I am not denying we have a deficit. The UK has a deficit. Take revenues

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per head of population, which is what you decided to me there. In the

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most recent year, our revenues per head of population are broadly

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similar to the UK. In every one of the past 35 years, revenues per head

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of population have been higher than the rest of the UK. I accept we have

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a challenge in the North Sea. I accept that like all oil-producing

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countries, we have challenges about how we transition away from oil and

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gas over the years to come, though there is a great deal of attention

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in the North Sea. These are challenges we should embrace and

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challenges we should be working out how we face up to and address.

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Scotland is doing that and we'll do that on the basis of fundamental

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strengths in our economy. -- will do that. Scotland pays per capita about

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the same as the UK average. I am talking about the current year. What

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I am saying is, you cannot judge the economy in one year. It is similar

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in one year in 34 of the past 35 years and has been higher. That is

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the point I am making. The reason you are running a deficit, per

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capita spending is so much higher than in Scotland it is ?1400 higher

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public spending per person. Westminster that is that build it is

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the difference between tax revenues and what you spend. -- fits that

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bill. It is a deficit. The UK is in deficit in Scotland is in deficit.

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It is twice as big! In 2008, 2009, the UK deficit was twice as big as

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Scotland it will vary from year to year. In terms of the point about

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per capita spending, there are very good reasons why someone who knows

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Scotland well, we have a country where one in five of the population

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lives in a row and remote community. I was Health Secretary for five

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years. It cost more to deliver health services on an island or

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rural community than it does in Glasgow. Westminster pays for that,

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it makes up the difference. If you are independent you would either

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have to raise taxes or cut spending. What would it be? By how much would

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you raise taxes and cut spending? We set a budget in devolved Scotland

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every year. We make choices, sometimes these are tough choices.

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If Scotland were independent, we would do that as well. The point I

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am making, the economy of an independent Scotland would face

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challenges like other economies do. We're in a fundamentally strong

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position. Employment is higher than any other UK nation. Productivity is

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growing faster. We have a number of key strengths in the economy. One of

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the challenges is how we build on these strengths and get our economy

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growing faster. We have a number of world leading sectors in our

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economy. The fact is your deficit was ?15

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billion, moving with oil revenues at 2 billion last year. This year oil

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revenues are reckoned to be at zero so your budget deficit would get

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even worse. Two cut your deficit to anything like acceptable levels you

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would have to increase tax to 16% or cut spending by 14% or a combination

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of the two, what would it be? We would deal with the deficit in the

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same way the UK is dealing with the deficit and dealt in the deficit --

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with the deficit in 2009/ ten. We would be in the same position as

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many other countries but we would be in a position where we have got a

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fundamentally strong economy. I wish Scotland have voted yes in 2014, if

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it had done we would have spent the last almost two years preparing for

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Scotland becoming independent. In a negotiation around independence,

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there would have been discussions about assets, liability, the share

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of defence spending, so that's what would have been the case if we voted

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for independence. Looking ahead, we have a strong economy and the

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challenge is how we grow it even faster. You accept surely that you

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wouldn't be allowed to join the European Union with a 10% deficit,

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you would have to agree to Brussels programme, correct? We are getting

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into some ridiculous territory here and one of the most ridiculous

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arguments. Scotland wouldn't have been out of the EU, we wouldn't have

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been in the position of an accession state. It is a bit rich for anybody,

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given where we are right now, with the prospect of being taken out of

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the EU ahead of us, for scaremongering about the prospects

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of that. With two weeks to go until independence, instead of increases

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in public spending which you announced yesterday... They didn't

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vote yes. But if it had been, you would have been looking at the list

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of hospitals and schools to close, you would be the austerity party,

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that's what you would have to do. That's ridiculous. Countries the

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world over have deficits and deal with them. We would also have been

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taking on the greater powers to grow our economy, particularly our own

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short economy. Italy and Greece had 10% deficit and you know the

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austerity they had to go through. I think this argument starts to tip

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over into being incredible, we start to compare Scotland, with all of the

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strength of the Scottish economy, to countries like Greece and Italy. I

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have spoken about the fundamental strengths of our economy, not least

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the fact we have had the longest period of economic growth since the

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devolution. You have said all of that. Yes, we have challenges, but

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Scotland has a strong economy. Then why do your revenues like you're

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spending by ?2400 per person? -- lag your spending. We have a deficit

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like many other countries... Nobody has a deficit like Scotland's. We

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have a particular issue because of the fall in North Sea revenues. It

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is an indictment of Westminster mismanagement that unlike Norway, we

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don't have a massive oil fund to help deal with that. Westminster is

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paying for your deficit, Westminster is paying for the difference for the

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rest of the deficit, would you like to thank the rest of the people of

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the United Kingdom for making up for the deficit you have got?

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Westminster has a deficit of its own, it is ?1 trillion in debt. That

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is not the deficit, that is the debt. That is why I said debt, I

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understand the difference between deficit and debt, but it has

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accumulated debt of ?1 trillion, it has an annual deficit just like

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Scotland and many other countries do. It is actually 1.5 trillion,

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even worse than you think. I was being kind to them, Andrew! You

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should be kind because they are saving you quite a bit of money!

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Does Labour have a problem dealing with allegations of anti-semitism?

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The party is worried enough to have established an inquiry

:20:00.:20:02.

into the Labour Club at Oxford University

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where there are accusations that members used off-colour language

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And the Sunday Politics has been told that the investigation

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will look at new claims from another university.

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It comes after an activist with controversial views was allowed

:20:14.:20:16.

back into the party then promptly chucked out again last week.

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Does Jeremy Corbyn's support for causes like the Palestinians

:20:19.:20:23.

or Stop The War mean he's not tough enough when there are allegations

:20:24.:20:27.

It's seen that way by some students at Oxford.

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Last month the vice-chair of the Labour club there resigned,

:20:31.:20:33.

claiming some members had a problem with Jews and used words like Zio,

:20:34.:20:39.

a nickname for Jewish people that many find offensive.

:20:40.:20:42.

It's now being investigated by the Labour peer Baroness Royle,

:20:43.:20:45.

who is also looking at the wider issue of behaviour in

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We understand she's now extended her investigation

:20:48.:20:50.

to include students at the London School of Economics.

:20:51.:20:53.

This week, they have been electing a new general secretary

:20:54.:20:56.

One of the candidates, Rayhan Uddin, who's also

:20:57.:21:03.

in the Labour group, has been criticised for some

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Facebook posts that emerged during the campaign.

:21:06.:21:09.

In one, he talked about leading Zionists wanting to take over

:21:10.:21:12.

the student union to make it right wing and Zio again.

:21:13.:21:18.

Facebook post: of language, writing in another

:21:19.:21:33.

He has been referred to Labour's investigation

:21:34.:21:35.

into student politics by someone who now works for an MP.

:21:36.:21:39.

We've seen the letter they wrote, which said:

:21:40.:21:49.

Because it was an older generation of activists that came up

:21:50.:21:58.

at Prime Minister's Questions this week.

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I was completely appalled to see yesterday that the Labour Party has

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readmitted someone to their party who says, and I believe

:22:04.:22:07.

that the 9/11 suicide bombers, and I quote, must never be condemned

:22:08.:22:12.

and belongs to an organisation that says "we defend the Islamic State

:22:13.:22:15.

He was referring to Gerry Downing, who had also blogged

:22:16.:22:21.

about what he called the Jewish question,

:22:22.:22:25.

after being readmitted to the party this week he was resuspended.

:22:26.:22:28.

He reckons it's really a battle between different wings in Labour.

:22:29.:22:31.

You've said there is a conspiracy of people out to get Jeremy Corbyn,

:22:32.:22:35.

Well, Dan Jarvis and these people of course, obviously there's

:22:36.:22:40.

the whole Blairite wing of the party and others, who have been absolutely

:22:41.:22:45.

disgusted at the membership and the left-wing surge

:22:46.:22:48.

in the membership and can't believe what happened.

:22:49.:23:00.

And do you think they are using race and religion as a tool for that?

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Whereas the Labour MP Wes Streeting says there is a problem

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I think in certain parts of the British left,

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there has always been a virulent form of pretty bigoted politics,

:23:12.:23:15.

particularly in terms of anti-Semitism, which has been

:23:16.:23:22.

an issue in some of our university campuses

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There's also a mentality which I think has been epitomised

:23:25.:23:30.

by the repulsive use of Mr Downing, which is not so much Stop The War

:23:31.:23:33.

People who seem to hate their country more than they hate

:23:34.:23:38.

And we have got to start sending a far stronger message that this

:23:39.:23:44.

is simply not acceptable in the modern Labour Party.

:23:45.:23:47.

Jeremy Corbyn's supporters, like those in the grass roots

:23:48.:23:50.

campaign group Momentum, say none of this is fair on him.

:23:51.:23:54.

Corbyn comes under the most incredible level of attacks and one

:23:55.:23:57.

of the things that he's attacked for is his long-standing commitment

:23:58.:24:00.

to anti-war, anti-imperialism, peace in the Middle East.

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And I think that's where some of this comes from.

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He does absolutely condemn anti-Semitism, he has time

:24:12.:24:13.

There is not a shred of anti-Semitism in his personal

:24:14.:24:16.

make-up, in his moral make-up or in his political make-up.

:24:17.:24:21.

And as for Labour's investigation into anti-Semitism among students,

:24:22.:24:23.

there's no time frame for when it will report.

:24:24.:24:30.

Let's speak now to the Labour MP, John Mann, who's chair

:24:31.:24:36.

of the All-Party Parliamentary Group against Anti-Semitism.

:24:37.:24:41.

He's in Berlin at an Anti-Semitism Conference.

:24:42.:24:47.

Is there an anti-Semitism problem in the Labour Party? Of course, that's

:24:48.:24:53.

why these issues have got attention. It is not a big problem, but a small

:24:54.:24:59.

problem when it comes to racism needs to be dealt with. We have been

:25:00.:25:06.

here before. I can recall 30 years ago when there were extremists

:25:07.:25:09.

trying to ban Jewish societies in some of the universities, and we

:25:10.:25:15.

clamped down on them very hard then and they weren't in the Labour Party

:25:16.:25:19.

but it is the same kind of people, the same ideology. Some of that has

:25:20.:25:23.

crept into the Labour Party and it needs to be removed. Why has it come

:25:24.:25:30.

back? People could write big academic books on why it has

:25:31.:25:37.

re-surged but what we have seen in history is that anti-Semitism never

:25:38.:25:41.

seems to go away. But why in the Labour Party has come back? People

:25:42.:25:47.

have obviously chosen to dissociate with the Labour Party in the growth

:25:48.:25:51.

of membership, some of those people have attitudes that are very

:25:52.:25:57.

outdated and prejudiced. There is no space for them in the Labour Party

:25:58.:26:01.

and the reason that is important is because I am getting young Jewish

:26:02.:26:05.

activists posturing whether the Labour Party is the place for them

:26:06.:26:10.

in terms of their support, their vote and their activity, and we

:26:11.:26:14.

cannot tolerate a situation where any part of society doesn't feel

:26:15.:26:22.

that a major political party like the Labour Party is not the place

:26:23.:26:26.

for them, which is why prompt effective action and vigilance on

:26:27.:26:30.

this is required, including from Jeremy as the leader of the Labour

:26:31.:26:34.

Party. Is the Labour leader doing enough? Or the fact he has talked

:26:35.:26:43.

about his friends, Hamas, Hezbollah, and shared platforms with people who

:26:44.:26:47.

have been very hostile to Israel and so on, is that a disadvantage? Is it

:26:48.:26:53.

encouraging anti-Semitism or is it not relevant? I have met Jeremy

:26:54.:26:58.

recently to discuss anti-Semitism in the Labour Party and it is clear to

:26:59.:27:03.

me that he does not tolerate or support it but what he has to do is

:27:04.:27:08.

follow that free with actions and ensure that others in the Labour

:27:09.:27:13.

Party follow it through with actions because the kind of thing, the

:27:14.:27:19.

atmosphere that is being created in Oxford University is not a one-off.

:27:20.:27:24.

This has been happening elsewhere as well. While these can be seen as

:27:25.:27:28.

small incidents, if you are the young Jewish person who is impacted

:27:29.:27:34.

by it, it is not small for you and it is magnified in the universities,

:27:35.:27:40.

which are pretty tolerant places and rightly so, if there is in tolerance

:27:41.:27:45.

to any particular group and to Jewish students. We are not prepared

:27:46.:27:49.

to have that in the Labour Party, there has got to be action, it has

:27:50.:27:53.

got to be led from the front and it has got to be decisive action. There

:27:54.:27:57.

is no space for these people in the Labour Party or is there space for

:27:58.:28:03.

people in any way excusing their actions. But there is an inquiry

:28:04.:28:11.

into what has been going on at Oxford, but is your party doing

:28:12.:28:15.

enough about this? Because I understand these inquiries may be

:28:16.:28:19.

subsumed into a much bigger inquiry into bullying and so on. What is

:28:20.:28:25.

your feeling? It is action by results. If there is a decisive

:28:26.:28:30.

action, there will be an almighty row which wouldn't be helpful but

:28:31.:28:35.

the idea that those of us who fought over decades, challenging

:28:36.:28:42.

anti-Semitism and other forms of racism, are going to accept other

:28:43.:28:47.

than the highest of standards in our own party, well I can tell you it is

:28:48.:28:53.

going to happen. There are many of us who will only accept absolutely

:28:54.:28:58.

the highest standards. We are not prepared to tolerate any form of

:28:59.:29:03.

anti-Semitism or any excuse for it in the Labour Party or anywhere else

:29:04.:29:08.

in society. But in our own party absolutely not and therefore there

:29:09.:29:11.

has got to be action, words are not good enough. Historically the Labour

:29:12.:29:16.

Party has done well from the Jewish vote. The Jewish vote over time has

:29:17.:29:22.

tended to vote Labour. If this anti-Semitism continues in your

:29:23.:29:26.

party, are you in danger of losing the Jewish vote? We prepared a

:29:27.:29:33.

report ten years ago on a cross-party basis that highlighted

:29:34.:29:36.

anti-Semitism in all of its aspects including from the right but also

:29:37.:29:40.

what was described by some as the new anti-Semitism on the left. It is

:29:41.:29:45.

not new but it had been dormant for a long period of time. People have

:29:46.:29:50.

been accustomed to the Labour Party and that part of the left being

:29:51.:29:55.

highly tolerant to everybody. That has got to happen, you cannot have a

:29:56.:30:01.

progressive party of any substance in politics if it allows any form of

:30:02.:30:05.

intolerance and therefore we are not prepared to have second-class

:30:06.:30:10.

citizens, second-class form of racism allowed in the Labour Party.

:30:11.:30:16.

Anti-Semitism has got to be challenged, including anti-Semitism

:30:17.:30:22.

on the left, and so robustly and put back in the dustbin again. That is

:30:23.:30:28.

my intention in the Labour Party. I am looking forward to Jeremy and the

:30:29.:30:34.

National Executive being decisive, removing the anti-Semites, going

:30:35.:30:38.

into where there is intolerance and explaining what is anti-Semitism and

:30:39.:30:41.

why we are not prepared to have it in our party. Thanks for joining us

:30:42.:30:45.

this morning. Labour's Shadow Chancellor John

:30:46.:30:48.

McDonnell ran Jeremy Corbyn's leadership campaign on a platform

:30:49.:30:50.

fighting not just austerity, Now though, he wants to be

:30:51.:30:52.

the new voice of fiscal responsibility, and says he's

:30:53.:30:55.

going to re-write In a moment we'll be talking

:30:56.:30:57.

to John McDonnell's number two, the Shadow Chief Secretary

:30:58.:31:01.

to the Treasury. But first let's hear

:31:02.:31:02.

what Mr McDonnell had to say It is a wider ambition then just

:31:03.:31:05.

Labour's fiscal credibility. I want to try to restore credibility

:31:06.:31:08.

to economic policy-making generally, not just within the Labour Party

:31:09.:31:11.

but across politics too. We have had too long,

:31:12.:31:14.

for example, the last six years we have had fiscal rules

:31:15.:31:16.

which have not been met, I am trying to encourage

:31:17.:31:19.

a better economic debate. What I have said is quite clearly,

:31:20.:31:24.

when we go back into government, we will eliminate the deficit,

:31:25.:31:27.

reduce debt, and will ensure that is supervised

:31:28.:31:31.

independently by the Office And Labour's Shadow Chief Secretary

:31:32.:31:33.

to the Treasury, Seema Malhotra, Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You

:31:34.:31:51.

would balance current spending with revenue and borrow to invest. How

:31:52.:31:56.

does that differ from Mr Brown and Mr balls? You are right about there

:31:57.:32:00.

being two key parts to the new fiscal credibility were all. In a

:32:01.:32:05.

sense, this builds on very much where we have been before. It also

:32:06.:32:09.

responds to the criticisms that were made of Jaws -- George Osborne's

:32:10.:32:15.

this school charter where he was criticised for tying his own hands

:32:16.:32:20.

and not allowing for investment. -- fiscal charter. There are two key

:32:21.:32:26.

differences. It makes it more explicit, that there should be

:32:27.:32:30.

independent voices. We have said we want the OBR to be an independent

:32:31.:32:35.

voice around deficit reduction targets, and also reporting directly

:32:36.:32:40.

to Parliament. The second area is that we want to make sure there is

:32:41.:32:45.

the opportunity for investment and also, if there are difficult times,

:32:46.:32:50.

like we had in 2009, when monetary policy does not seem to be working,

:32:51.:32:55.

it gives an opportunity for fiscal policy to work alongside. It builds

:32:56.:33:01.

on but has two key differences. Mr Brown defended his rules as well

:33:02.:33:11.

when times got bad. It was described as being austerity light. This must

:33:12.:33:20.

be as well? It has been developed and the reason... It is not about

:33:21.:33:26.

austerity. It is a framework that will allow us to make spending and

:33:27.:33:31.

tax decisions in the future. It responds to the criticisms, the

:33:32.:33:34.

universal criticisms of George Osborne's this dull charter. --

:33:35.:33:40.

fiscal charter. It says we need to invest for the future. I understand

:33:41.:33:50.

all that. Mr Brown and Mr Balls also wanted to invest and that was

:33:51.:33:54.

criticised by the Shadow Chancellor as austerity light. If that were

:33:55.:34:04.

austerity light, this is steroid to -- night as well. We're in a

:34:05.:34:05.

situation where George -- night as well. We're in a

:34:06.:34:14.

blaming everyone but himself. -- this is austerity light as well.

:34:15.:34:22.

George Osborne's Member of Parliament for the Tory Party has

:34:23.:34:27.

said, what we have seen our warm words. He has talked about

:34:28.:34:30.

investment and an export led strategy. This is built on debts,

:34:31.:34:38.

household debt. How much is public investment? Around 30 billion, if

:34:39.:34:45.

you take into account the difference in spending. It is 34 billion in

:34:46.:34:50.

public spending at the moment. It should be much higher. How much more

:34:51.:34:56.

should it be? It should be higher. There is no excuse for what George

:34:57.:35:01.

Osborne has done. I am not asking about Mr Osborne. I am asking about

:35:02.:35:07.

your policy. 34 billion at the moment, rising to 40 billion by 20

:35:08.:35:12.

20. How much more would it be? It focuses on where it needs to be

:35:13.:35:23.

regarding GDP. You need to have a good level of investment so you are

:35:24.:35:28.

creating jobs for the future. What I am trying to work out is what this

:35:29.:35:34.

means in hard cash for investment, how big would investment be under a

:35:35.:35:38.

Labour government? It is clear that George Osborne has been cutting

:35:39.:35:45.

investment. It was around 3%, 3.5%, and is now 1.4% in terms of

:35:46.:35:48.

infrastructure. If you want jobs of the future coming through, if you

:35:49.:35:55.

want to turn around the situation where young people... By how much

:35:56.:35:58.

more would public investment increase under this formula? What we

:35:59.:36:02.

have said is you need to make sure that we have a balance of where the

:36:03.:36:06.

economy needs investment so we can get tax receipts and growth for the

:36:07.:36:11.

future. We had economists saying that George Osborne, if you talk

:36:12.:36:15.

about fairness in the future... I am here to talk about the labour policy

:36:16.:36:21.

and not that of George Osborne. Nor has there been balanced growth. If

:36:22.:36:25.

you want a balanced budget, you need to balance growth. Let's talk about

:36:26.:36:34.

labour. John McDonnell has talked about the difference between

:36:35.:36:37.

short-term and long-term investment. What is the difference? What we have

:36:38.:36:41.

said as she want to see investment that will see us having a big stake

:36:42.:36:45.

in the future. If you want to look at energy investment, you are

:36:46.:36:55.

talking out about -- about 20, 30 years. It is about supporting

:36:56.:37:02.

companies, entrepreneurs and supporting the long-term growth for

:37:03.:37:06.

the country as well. If you're talking about rail, roads and

:37:07.:37:09.

infrastructure, you will be aware, I am sure, of the reports that showed

:37:10.:37:16.

recently we have fewer buses than 2010, our rolling stock and trains

:37:17.:37:19.

are in poor condition, people are taking longer to get to work and the

:37:20.:37:25.

trains are more crowded. That should be a wake-up call to George Osborne

:37:26.:37:29.

he is not working in the interests of the British public and people are

:37:30.:37:33.

asking if the decisions are based on political interest and not on the

:37:34.:37:41.

country's future. You would balance current spending, day-to-day

:37:42.:37:43.

spending. At the moment there is a deficit. What would you cut to

:37:44.:37:49.

balance current spending? There are two things. The first is about

:37:50.:37:53.

spending decisions and the second about tax receipts. We are arguing

:37:54.:37:58.

that if you want to see tax receipts grow, George Osborne has seen them

:37:59.:38:02.

for in regard to productivity growth. What would you cut? We would

:38:03.:38:11.

want to see that growth increases in that you see an increase in tax

:38:12.:38:16.

receipts. You cannot spend if it is not within your means. What would

:38:17.:38:23.

you cut? You cannot spend if it is not within your means. What the

:38:24.:38:25.

announcement from the Labour Party is about is how we earn our way in

:38:26.:38:30.

the world and survived in a competitive economy. We will leave

:38:31.:38:32.

it there. Thank you very much. It's just gone 11:35am,

:38:33.:38:37.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:38.:38:39.

in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20

:38:40.:38:42.

minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday

:38:43.:38:45.

Politics where you are. Could Brexit cost the capital

:38:46.:38:49.

billions of pounds in infrastructure As Labour politicians

:38:50.:38:55.

launch a last ditch attempt to uproot the Garden Bridge,

:38:56.:39:00.

we ask whether this multi-million pound project is a needless drain

:39:01.:39:04.

on the public purse. And, I am joined in

:39:05.:39:09.

the studio by the MPs whose constituencies fall on either

:39:10.:39:11.

side of that bridge. Mark Field, MP for Cities

:39:12.:39:15.

of London and Westminster. Kate Hoey is the Labour

:39:16.:39:17.

MP for Vauxhall. Now, before we take it

:39:18.:39:23.

to the bridge, we are going to dive right into the choppy

:39:24.:39:27.

waters of the EU. That has been a question

:39:28.:39:30.

dominating politics this week. Just 24 hours after condemning

:39:31.:39:33.

pro-EU campaigners for what he described

:39:34.:39:36.

as the scandalous treatment of British Chamber

:39:37.:39:39.

of Commerce director general, John Longworth,

:39:40.:39:41.

the mayor, Boris Johnson, was forced to issue

:39:42.:39:45.

his own apologies, after an e-mail emerged

:39:46.:39:47.

telling his senior staff It is not something

:39:48.:39:49.

I agree with and my staff, my team, have complete

:39:50.:39:58.

freedom to say what they want. Indeed they already are and have

:39:59.:40:03.

been for some days. So, they can campaign

:40:04.:40:08.

for whoever they like? As soon as I saw that thing last

:40:09.:40:11.

night, it ceased to be operative. It is, Mark Field,

:40:12.:40:19.

a convenient mess, isn't it? The message goes out

:40:20.:40:21.

and Boris retains Does he really not know

:40:22.:40:22.

what his chief of staff is doing? No, I would not be a tall

:40:23.:40:27.

fair on Boris on that. I think what it really comes down

:40:28.:40:34.

to is we are so obsessed in the political world

:40:35.:40:45.

by spin, by discipline, that we seem to think that no one

:40:46.:40:47.

should be able to have alternative I think it was Boris playing

:40:48.:40:50.

a little bit to the gallery in relation to the John

:40:51.:40:54.

Longworth situation. I have known John Longworth

:40:55.:40:56.

will sometimes and I think he was getting increasingly

:40:57.:40:58.

uneasy with the idea of, as he saw it, of having to take

:40:59.:41:00.

a neutral view on this issue. I have spoken to John over

:41:01.:41:04.

the last two or three months and it was clear to me

:41:05.:41:06.

he was definitely favouring Brexit, which was at odds

:41:07.:41:09.

with the official line We are talking about

:41:10.:41:11.

people's private lives. It was not just an

:41:12.:41:13.

edict on what should happen in the workplace,

:41:14.:41:16.

it was about people Should anyone ever be gagged

:41:17.:41:18.

in their private lives? That was the clear message

:41:19.:41:21.

in the original e-mail. Boris put it rightly

:41:22.:41:24.

very quickly to touch I take the view on this issue,

:41:25.:41:28.

clearly, the Government has decided we are allowing Cabinet ministers,

:41:29.:41:32.

people sitting around the Cabinet table, taking an entirely different

:41:33.:41:35.

view from the official government line, the line that was taken

:41:36.:41:40.

by civil servants on a day to I think we have a reasonable

:41:41.:41:43.

compromise here. There is a little bit

:41:44.:41:46.

of a storm in a teacup. To be fair to Boris,

:41:47.:41:49.

although I take a different view on this issue than he does,

:41:50.:41:51.

I think he has done the right thing by putting it

:41:52.:41:54.

to touch very quickly. Kate Hoey, should anyone be gagged

:41:55.:41:56.

in this important national debate? I think the referendum is different

:41:57.:41:59.

from general elections in the way At senior level certainly,

:42:00.:42:02.

they shouldn't be getting involved. The Boris being went out

:42:03.:42:05.

with all the details There was a whole big

:42:06.:42:07.

spiel of stuff and, in the end, it was tacked

:42:08.:42:11.

on to the advisers. I am quite sure Boris

:42:12.:42:13.

did not see that. I have been very critical

:42:14.:42:16.

of Boris on lots of things but, in this case, I'm sure

:42:17.:42:20.

he did not want this to happen. This is being decided

:42:21.:42:23.

across party politics, political parties are,

:42:24.:42:33.

on the whole, divided. The public really is going to feel

:42:34.:42:35.

they have the final say. I was one of the so-called

:42:36.:42:38.

81 Tory rebels. Kate and I were in the same voting

:42:39.:42:44.

lobby when it came to the debate in 2011 about the idea

:42:45.:42:48.

of having a referendum. They want information

:42:49.:42:51.

and it is up to them to decide. Boris Johnson refers

:42:52.:42:56.

to the Remain camp, your camp, I think this is a bit

:42:57.:42:58.

of a foolish thing to do, to be honest, to go

:42:59.:43:05.

on about Project Fear. The people who have wanted Britain

:43:06.:43:07.

to be out of the EU have had 40 years to come up with a plan

:43:08.:43:16.

and we still have no real For them to talk about Project Fear

:43:17.:43:20.

highlights the weaknesses There is clearly uncertainty,

:43:21.:43:23.

but there's just as much I think the idea that this

:43:24.:43:26.

is a great leap in the dark, at least if somebody says,

:43:27.:43:31.

we are jumping into a dark pit, we're jumping in with a huge

:43:32.:43:35.

big cushion of money Let's stay talking about money

:43:36.:43:37.

and staying with the European Union. When it comes to investment

:43:38.:43:46.

in the capital and its vast and expensive infrastructure,

:43:47.:43:48.

few institutions have proved as lucrative as the

:43:49.:43:50.

European Investment Bank. With Crossrail, schools,

:43:51.:43:55.

and the M25 expansion among others, all benefiting from

:43:56.:43:57.

the ?7 billion worth of funding invested over

:43:58.:44:01.

the last ten years, could the cost of Brexit be more

:44:02.:44:12.

than the capital can afford? What does this futuristic building

:44:13.:44:15.

in Luxembourg have to do with these That was the headquarters

:44:16.:44:18.

of the European Investment Bank. The rather anonymous institution has

:44:19.:44:21.

lent Croydon Council ?102 million to improve

:44:22.:44:23.

and open new schools. This is one of eight new classrooms

:44:24.:44:26.

that have been built to accommodate The school has been able to double

:44:27.:44:33.

in size due to that loan. We had a vision of what

:44:34.:44:44.

we wanted to do with the school which we couldn't afford

:44:45.:44:51.

as a school standing on our own, and having this work done and having

:44:52.:44:54.

the work paid for through Croydon has allowed us now

:44:55.:44:58.

to do additional work. And Croydon Council says it was over

:44:59.:45:00.

?7.5 million cheaper to borrow from the European Investment Bank

:45:01.:45:04.

than taking the usual local The European investment bank enabled

:45:05.:45:06.

us to get a lower rate of interest, it meant we can deliver the school

:45:07.:45:14.

places that we need for the children establishments whilst not

:45:15.:45:17.

putting an undue burden Loans from the European investment

:45:18.:45:20.

bank have also helped fund a range of transport projects

:45:21.:45:25.

in the capital, including the mayor's cycle superhighways,

:45:26.:45:28.

Heathrow terminal five, the widening of the M25,

:45:29.:45:31.

and a ?1.5 billion loan The Liberal Democrat

:45:32.:45:36.

mayoral candidate believes it is an important source of finance

:45:37.:45:42.

for London that could be lost The European investment

:45:43.:45:45.

bank is cheap borrowing for London's infrastructure

:45:46.:45:51.

and we have seen billions of pounds over recent years

:45:52.:45:54.

to help London keep growing and moving so it is really

:45:55.:45:57.

important for London to have access If we leave the European Union,

:45:58.:46:00.

all I can see is that our costs The European investment

:46:01.:46:07.

bank is owned by The UK Government owns a 16%

:46:08.:46:10.

share, the same as France Over the last decade it has provided

:46:11.:46:15.

over ?7 billion of investment for London, amounting to roughly 7%

:46:16.:46:22.

of capital spending in London Those that support leaving

:46:23.:46:25.

the EU argue that if London no longer have access

:46:26.:46:31.

to the European investment bank, All these projects could perfectly

:46:32.:46:33.

well have been financed elsewhere and the test of that

:46:34.:46:40.

is that the European Investment Bank in its charter has

:46:41.:46:46.

got to make loans So these are not soft loans or

:46:47.:46:49.

subsidised loans. They can always be provided

:46:50.:46:53.

elsewhere and it might be a rather good idea if we took our money out

:46:54.:46:59.

of the European Investment Bank and started our own European

:47:00.:47:02.

investment bank. And the money we have

:47:03.:47:04.

is 36 billion euros, quite a lot of money

:47:05.:47:06.

to do these good In 2009, Boris Johnson

:47:07.:47:08.

praised the European Investment Bank when it announced

:47:09.:47:12.

a substantial loan to the Crossrail project, but at last week's

:47:13.:47:17.

people's question time, a different view

:47:18.:47:19.

on European funding. They are actually deciding how to

:47:20.:47:30.

spend money in our country, that is the perverse thing. Would a Brexit

:47:31.:47:37.

cut off millions of pounds for key London projects, such as the

:47:38.:47:42.

improvement to Croydon schools? Or award for B better off by cutting

:47:43.:47:47.

out the European middleman. This will see children educated in

:47:48.:47:55.

proper classrooms, thanks to a unique loan from the European

:47:56.:48:00.

investment bank, it is good news for London, isn't it? I am delighted for

:48:01.:48:06.

that school, the money could have come from other sources but the most

:48:07.:48:10.

important thing is that something like 7 billion over ten years London

:48:11.:48:16.

has got from this investment fund, if we were to leave the EU our share

:48:17.:48:23.

of what we would be able to take out is ?39 billion. It is our money, it

:48:24.:48:28.

is not some new money that sprouted up in Brussels to be sent here. We

:48:29.:48:33.

would be able to, as the mayor said, we would be able to decide how to

:48:34.:48:38.

spend that money and very few schools have got this, it mainly

:48:39.:48:43.

goes to infrastructure projects. Which is why I referred to it as a

:48:44.:48:47.

unique loan but you say perhaps they should have taken the money from

:48:48.:48:51.

somewhere else. Why would they do that if it costs more money? Croydon

:48:52.:48:59.

saved over ?7 million by taking a loan from the European investment

:49:00.:49:08.

bank. The Government should be funding local schools, and I would

:49:09.:49:21.

imagine Mrs a PFI -- this is a PFI school, which in the end will cost

:49:22.:49:27.

more money. The basic principle of this, we give this huge amount of

:49:28.:49:33.

money, ?50 million a day, ?19 billion a year, we give to the EU.

:49:34.:49:39.

Let's stay with the European investment bank. Bear in mind for a

:49:40.:49:43.

moment that the daily loan rate, we looked at it today, they fluctuate

:49:44.:49:49.

but typically it is .8% cheaper to take a loan from the EIB than a

:49:50.:50:03.

local authority. It is a significant benefit here. That may not

:50:04.:50:08.

necessarily stay at that rate. Very few schools would be able to apply

:50:09.:50:12.

for it, and ultimately long-term if we are not in the EU we would have

:50:13.:50:17.

that money plus the money already in there and we would be able to spend

:50:18.:50:22.

that. We underwrite the banks nearly to the tune of ?40 million, the Lib

:50:23.:50:28.

Dem mayoral candidate says it is cheap money but in essence it is our

:50:29.:50:32.

money but we borrow it back with strings attached. It is fair that we

:50:33.:50:40.

are getting it because it is an investment bank at a national, super

:50:41.:50:47.

national level, at that rate. I think what William said is nonsense,

:50:48.:50:51.

we will get a better deal doing it that way. It puts a lie to one of

:50:52.:50:58.

the claims often made by the leave campaign is that somehow if we got

:50:59.:51:04.

out of the EU we would somehow get ?350 million a week back. The truth

:51:05.:51:08.

is this is one of the benefits we have from being in the EU. I accept

:51:09.:51:15.

the headline of ?350 million does not stack up to the reality. There

:51:16.:51:22.

is increasing hostility in much of the rest of the UK, London has had a

:51:23.:51:28.

very good deal. There was investment in Crossrail, but much of it from

:51:29.:51:32.

the central government grant, we had the Olympic Games in 2012, we want

:51:33.:51:39.

Crossrail now too. These projects will be much more difficult to claim

:51:40.:51:44.

within the capital city I think, given that hostility that is there.

:51:45.:51:51.

Let me just by all this down, specifically for London you said

:51:52.:51:54.

there is more to lose than to gain by stepping outside of the EIB in

:51:55.:52:02.

particular. I wouldn't be hysterical about it. Caroline has a political

:52:03.:52:07.

point to make about how disastrous it would be. I don't think it would

:52:08.:52:13.

be totally disastrous if we left. London is a great city, a lot of

:52:14.:52:18.

people want to invest and come into it. The world is much bigger than

:52:19.:52:24.

that 28 countries of the EU. Would there be any guarantee this money

:52:25.:52:27.

would still be available to London in the way it is now? We would have

:52:28.:52:34.

that money back. No, the UK would have it back. London is the capital

:52:35.:52:40.

city, that is recognised by everybody in the UK. It will always

:52:41.:52:45.

attract much more private investment than other places. I think this

:52:46.:52:52.

is... I'm not going to use the word scaremongering because actually Mark

:52:53.:52:56.

said it would not be a total disaster the weight of the

:52:57.:53:00.

politicians pointed out, but we do need to reflect overall that

:53:01.:53:05.

ultimately this is about us as elected representatives being able

:53:06.:53:12.

to decide... Funny you should mention elected representatives, it

:53:13.:53:18.

is very relevant. Last week opponents of the garden bridge,

:53:19.:53:22.

including a guest here Kate Hoey, made a last-ditch attempt to stop

:53:23.:53:26.

the multi-million pound project in its tracks. So how did she get on?

:53:27.:53:32.

It is three years since the garden bridge plans took root, but with

:53:33.:53:38.

allegations of a rigged procurement process, the project's path has not

:53:39.:53:43.

been a bed of roses but last November, after initially opposing

:53:44.:53:48.

the plans, Lambeth Council signalled their support for the bridge when 20

:53:49.:53:52.

of the ?60 million public investment was converted into a loan. That

:53:53.:53:56.

hasn't stopped local councillors responsible for the land on the

:53:57.:54:00.

south side of the bridge from voicing their opposition the scheme.

:54:01.:54:04.

We have been steadfast in our opinions about this bridge from the

:54:05.:54:08.

beginning, we have said it is in the wrong location, it shouldn't be

:54:09.:54:13.

publicly funded in any shape or form, it will dramatically change

:54:14.:54:17.

the south bank and its beauty. Last week, they along with Kate Hoey

:54:18.:54:24.

wrote this letter to the builders that owns the lease to the land on

:54:25.:54:27.

the South bank. It said: The garden bridge trust, who are

:54:28.:55:02.

responsible for overseeing the project, said they were confident of

:55:03.:55:06.

it being resolved. We have a number of conditions we need to discharge

:55:07.:55:11.

with Lambeth before we begin construction and we are working

:55:12.:55:16.

closely with local residents and other local businesses, making sure

:55:17.:55:21.

we address their concerns. Lambeth Council told us that the final few

:55:22.:55:25.

planning permissions are still to be discharged over the coming few weeks

:55:26.:55:29.

and its negotiations on the lease are still ongoing. With construction

:55:30.:55:34.

due to begin in the summer, are its opponents in the last chance saloon?

:55:35.:55:41.

Your letter to the leaseholder is a bit desperate, isn't it? In our last

:55:42.:55:46.

discussion you were talking about directly elected representatives and

:55:47.:55:49.

here you are asking an unelected body to make the final decision. The

:55:50.:55:54.

builders have a long-term lease on this land. Lambeth Council have got

:55:55.:55:59.

to agree that they could handed over to the garden bridge to build this

:56:00.:56:04.

big building on it. We are going through a whole series of things.

:56:05.:56:08.

The procurement policy of how it got to the stage it is has been

:56:09.:56:12.

shocking. The planning application and the weight has been handled,

:56:13.:56:16.

this week for example they have agreed to a small number of toilets,

:56:17.:56:23.

eight toilets when Clapham picture house 14 toilets. There's a whole

:56:24.:56:27.

series of things wrong with this. It has been badly handled and

:56:28.:56:32.

ultimately coin Street as the community builders with a lot of

:56:33.:56:35.

resident support will have the final say. The only real political

:56:36.:56:44.

opposition is hyper local. It is you, three ward members and two

:56:45.:56:48.

London Assembly members. Meanwhile the rest of the council, your own

:56:49.:56:53.

London mayoral candidate, they support it. The important people to

:56:54.:57:00.

me in this are the residents and my constituents who are going to have

:57:01.:57:04.

to put up with this, which is spoiling views of London, which cost

:57:05.:57:10.

?60 million of public money. That's not strictly true, is it? ?60

:57:11.:57:17.

million directly from George Osborne, ?30 million from Transport

:57:18.:57:23.

for London going to be paid back. The other side of the bridge lies in

:57:24.:57:30.

your constituency, and you are on the other side of the argument. It

:57:31.:57:35.

is a vanity project, it is not necessary for London, is it? One

:57:36.:57:40.

small point I would agree with the lady from Lambeth Council earlier

:57:41.:57:44.

on, in an ideal world do we need another bridge? I accept that point

:57:45.:57:54.

but this is a fantastic opportunity to showcase urban design and

:57:55.:57:58.

architecture, and for the whole landscaping that we are going to

:57:59.:58:05.

have. It will link up Temple, one of the most disused tube stations on

:58:06.:58:10.

the district line, and provide an opportunity for a more agreeable

:58:11.:58:14.

pedestrian crossing either side. On the finance side, it is an expensive

:58:15.:58:21.

project at ?175 million, 70% of that is being raised privately. We are

:58:22.:58:27.

talking about public money and it may seem like a small amount, the 10

:58:28.:58:31.

million that remains from Transport for London, but this is not a

:58:32.:58:36.

profitable financial venture, there will be a cost to Londoners every

:58:37.:58:41.

year going forwards. But it will be a terrific tourist attraction as

:58:42.:58:46.

well being of day-to-day use for Londoners. There are thousands of

:58:47.:58:52.

tourists going past there already. The concept may be wonderful, but it

:58:53.:58:56.

is in the wrong place. There is no reason when the country is facing

:58:57.:59:01.

cutbacks all over the place that ?60 million of public money is being

:59:02.:59:07.

spent on this. If coin Street builders allows this to go

:59:08.:59:14.

through... It hasn't got its planning permission yet anyway, and

:59:15.:59:18.

it is ruining the most wonderful views of St Paul's Cathedral and we

:59:19.:59:19.

are ridiculous to go down views of St Paul's Cathedral and we

:59:20.:59:23.

Now it is time for the rest news in 60 seconds.

:59:24.:59:33.

Former Smiths front man Morrissey could make a late bid for Mayor of

:59:34.:59:37.

London, he said to be considering very seriously an invitation to

:59:38.:59:41.

stand by the animal welfare party. The night tube moved a step closer

:59:42.:59:47.

after members of the train drivers union voted to accept a new pay

:59:48.:59:50.

deal. Sadiq Khan unveiled his mayoral

:59:51.:59:54.

manifesto this week, promising to name and shame landlords convicted

:59:55.:00:02.

of offences. Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith

:00:03.:00:08.

said Sadiq Khan's plans don't survive even the most gentle

:00:09.:00:11.

scrutiny. Boris Johnson's controversial super

:00:12.:00:16.

cycle highway will open next month along the embankment. The route was

:00:17.:00:26.

described by the Mayor as Crossrail for cyclists. Construction work on

:00:27.:00:29.

the western section between Parliament Square and Paddington

:00:30.:00:30.

continues. You enjoyed that film! Just as well

:00:31.:00:43.

your viewers are not hearing what we said. The appeal to private renters,

:00:44.:00:51.

that could be really powerful. They are also less likely to vote, aren't

:00:52.:00:56.

they? There is a worry about a lot of people in London who do not vote.

:00:57.:01:00.

That is something to concern all of us as political parties. You are

:01:01.:01:04.

right. It is such an important issue, housing. All the political

:01:05.:01:08.

parties in their manifestos have lots about housing. I do think this

:01:09.:01:13.

is something that cross-party we must work together. Does Zac

:01:14.:01:18.

Goldsmith has something for private renters? Siddique Khan is right to

:01:19.:01:26.

identify private renters are the biggest losers. We do need

:01:27.:01:34.

intermediate housing. We need to recognise there are a lot of people

:01:35.:01:38.

who will be renters and part renters for years to come. Thank you very

:01:39.:01:43.

much indeed. Now it is back to Andrew.

:01:44.:01:48.

So, what's in store for us this week?

:01:49.:01:51.

Well, just the small matter of George Osborne's Budget.

:01:52.:01:53.

Another EU summit and the political diary's jam-packed with

:01:54.:01:56.

Let's hear more from our Political Panel, and we're also

:01:57.:02:03.

joined by the Conservative MP, David Davis.

:02:04.:02:09.

100 days to go. Where are we at the moment in this campaign? Just on

:02:10.:02:19.

polling, we are balanced with a large number of uncertainty. What

:02:20.:02:25.

has happened in the last few weeks has been dominated with the flow of

:02:26.:02:30.

events. Turkey has dominated peoples minds and that is what will happen

:02:31.:02:34.

for most of the next 100 days. Events like that will force people.

:02:35.:02:40.

Turkey is about security and immigration and so on. That is a

:02:41.:02:45.

potential backdrop. If the Turkish deal begins to fall apart and the

:02:46.:02:48.

migrant crisis continues, which almost certainly it will, that is

:02:49.:02:53.

the kind of backdrop that is probably more helpful to your side

:02:54.:02:56.

of the referendum than the other one? It is not an accident, a

:02:57.:03:01.

structural outcome of the Schengen zone and the weakness of the eastern

:03:02.:03:07.

border. On other fronts, the financial front, you have the Euro

:03:08.:03:12.

structurally driving events. It seems to me the balance of

:03:13.:03:16.

probabilities in the next 100 days will be those sorts of things are

:03:17.:03:23.

actually going to favour a Brexit. For years and years, Mr Cameron, Mr

:03:24.:03:30.

Osborne, Mr Hague and so on have been spewing out Eurosceptic

:03:31.:03:37.

dialogue. Now they praise our membership of the EU! We cannot

:03:38.:03:42.

survive without the EU. Doesn't that risk jarring a bit with the

:03:43.:03:46.

electorate? I think it is absurd. We have a situation where the Prime

:03:47.:03:51.

Minister gave a big speech at Chatham House. He said can if you

:03:52.:03:56.

could not get the reforms, he would consider the alternative. Everything

:03:57.:04:01.

was on the table. In two options can he would consider campaigning to

:04:02.:04:05.

vote to leave. Now we are told if we left Britain, virtually

:04:06.:04:11.

catastrophic. Plagues of locusts and we will probably all die. You cannot

:04:12.:04:16.

say in November I will leave if I do not get my reforms and now say our

:04:17.:04:20.

country will collapse. That cannot be true, otherwise he would have

:04:21.:04:24.

been willing to leave the EU and risk economic collapse. I think it

:04:25.:04:31.

is scare tactics by Project Fear and it has been very damaging. People

:04:32.:04:38.

like me want Brexit but it is very damaging to the Conservative Party

:04:39.:04:42.

and unity. Howdy you see the campaign going? It has been largely

:04:43.:04:53.

dominated by the Vote Remain rather than the Vote Leave. Vote Remain

:04:54.:05:02.

have chucked a lot at Vote Leave. Many reports have been pumped out.

:05:03.:05:09.

They are in danger of using up all of that arguments for the race has

:05:10.:05:13.

got going. It does look fairly balanced. Some polling has suggested

:05:14.:05:19.

it leans a little towards the remaining side. Whenever people like

:05:20.:05:25.

David or others say it is all Project Fear, for the silent group

:05:26.:05:29.

of people and families with children who are not paying that much

:05:30.:05:32.

attention, if you talk about fear at all, there is a slight sense of

:05:33.:05:35.

maybe there is something to be fearful of after all. It works a

:05:36.:05:41.

bit, I am sure it does, but for how long question that when the Danes

:05:42.:05:45.

had their Euro referendum, the same thing happened. Eventually people

:05:46.:05:49.

were going in for the mockery, as you were, saying we're going to have

:05:50.:05:57.

a 17 foot high fence between us and Germany. That destroyed the campaign

:05:58.:06:00.

for the one thing that has happened is the credibility of the Government

:06:01.:06:05.

are doing has slipped quite a lot in the last few weeks and it is partly

:06:06.:06:10.

because of the exaggeration. You have two friends getting slightly

:06:11.:06:13.

nervous of it, slightly afraid of it, worrying about the risks. On the

:06:14.:06:18.

other hand, they are starting to say, do we really believe all this

:06:19.:06:23.

nonsense? That is the undetermined fact. It has not been a reasonable

:06:24.:06:29.

debate about facts. Is it too early to see who has been nudging ahead?

:06:30.:06:35.

What is significant is that David Davis has a tie in the colours of

:06:36.:06:43.

Vote Leave. The other one is a green tie with black writing. This is an

:06:44.:06:54.

issue of taste. I think what we are learning is the Brexit side is

:06:55.:06:56.

winning skirmishes. The reason they are doing that is because they are

:06:57.:07:01.

an insurgency. With an insurgency, it has six Cabinet ministers in it

:07:02.:07:05.

and that is exciting. You will clearly set the news agenda. The

:07:06.:07:11.

battle in the overall war, you would assume that Remain is nudging ahead

:07:12.:07:15.

because the polling after the Prime Minister Pozner Diehl said voters

:07:16.:07:22.

were impressed by that. Vote Leave have an incredibly simple and

:07:23.:07:27.

incredibly powerful message. Take back control. You may well find that

:07:28.:07:31.

message is so simple and so clear that that might achieve a cut

:07:32.:07:39.

through. Is the queen on the Brexit side or not? I do not think anyone

:07:40.:07:44.

is questioning she is a Eurosceptic. Even at the palace they are not

:07:45.:07:49.

disputing that and the complaint may have made about the story in the Sun

:07:50.:07:53.

newspaper last week. People have said she has in making these

:07:54.:07:56.

comments for some time. Cabinet ministers have told me they do

:07:57.:07:59.

similar things. This woman puts the mother bubble things -- the

:08:00.:08:08.

Commonwealth above all things. She defends the laws and traditions of

:08:09.:08:14.

this country as well. Not Brexit necessarily but Eurosceptic? That

:08:15.:08:20.

seems incontrovertible. The palace and Number 10 are not disputing that

:08:21.:08:27.

at all. It is great to have the Queen onside but I would like her to

:08:28.:08:31.

have one vote. She does not have a vote at all. Is this more within the

:08:32.:08:43.

Tory family question is it more bitter than you thought? Will it get

:08:44.:08:50.

more bitter as time goes on? Even if Mr Cameron wins, he may find it hard

:08:51.:08:54.

to put it together again. I do not think so. It is robust, pretty

:08:55.:08:59.

robust. To some extent he sets the tone himself if he is rude about

:09:00.:09:06.

Boris, there is a backlash. Some say he regards Boris in the same way he

:09:07.:09:12.

regards Ed Balls. A scan and he cannot stop picking at it. This is

:09:13.:09:22.

outside the house and takes quite a lot of poison out of it. It is

:09:23.:09:27.

robust and fears. People are taking it incredibly seriously. How is

:09:28.:09:33.

Boris doing? Pretty well. What is his real value? He draws attention

:09:34.:09:37.

to the issue and adds credibility to it. He makes the odd mistake and

:09:38.:09:42.

everyone forgives him for it. On balance, very useful and important.

:09:43.:09:51.

What about cross-party appeal? The Government began by emphasising the

:09:52.:09:56.

security implications of staying in, saying we needed to stay because of

:09:57.:10:00.

security. I think they have found that a tough argument because people

:10:01.:10:04.

do not associate EU with security. They will move on economic arguments

:10:05.:10:08.

now. The problem with economic arguments is they are nowhere near

:10:09.:10:13.

well-defined as clear and cut -- clearly cut as they were in 1975.

:10:14.:10:19.

They want to make a big picture argument. David Cameron got this

:10:20.:10:25.

deal on the Friday in Brussels. At 7:30pm, George Osborne was on the

:10:26.:10:31.

today programme making a massive destiny economic security argument.

:10:32.:10:35.

They know you cannot focus on the nitty-gritty of that. You have to

:10:36.:10:39.

make the big picture argument. It is potentially a mixed picture. David

:10:40.:10:43.

was saying earlier there is a major crisis in the Eurozone in the next

:10:44.:10:48.

few months, then that could be difficult. You have the opt out full

:10:49.:10:52.

stop when you are in government, there was an opt out from Britain

:10:53.:10:57.

having to join the euro. There is a major crisis. Two European summits

:10:58.:11:06.

in one week. That was not the case when we voted in 1975. The common

:11:07.:11:10.

market was seen as a successful, economic unit that we needed to

:11:11.:11:16.

join. The atmospherics are very different. For 20 years, it was the

:11:17.:11:22.

most successful economic unit, until about the early 90s. Since then we

:11:23.:11:29.

have got nothing. That is what people are seeing. We are moving on

:11:30.:11:35.

to the economic arguments. We have the budget which frames it. They're

:11:36.:11:38.

going to see Barack Obama coming here towards the end of April.

:11:39.:11:43.

You'll be making the argument and doing several events, as I

:11:44.:11:52.

understand it. He owes him a favour. Basically, what you're going to get

:11:53.:11:56.

as a return to the security argument. Returning to where we

:11:57.:12:00.

started this debate, you have got a situation where events will often

:12:01.:12:05.

favoured the out side but the control and ability to stage managed

:12:06.:12:08.

different moments is with the governments. -- the Government. They

:12:09.:12:16.

published a letter with generals on it and have not signed it. One of

:12:17.:12:23.

the generals came out this morning and said he was supporting the

:12:24.:12:28.

Government. It is from the Scottish referendum playbook. That worked. We

:12:29.:12:33.

saw Nicola Sturgeon struggling an hour ago, to explain basic, fiscal

:12:34.:12:37.

point about an independent Scotland but that is why Scotland voted to

:12:38.:12:41.

stay in the UK. You do not know whether the Government will have

:12:42.:12:46.

that element of certainty. As things stand at the moment, are we in or

:12:47.:12:52.

out? The last time I was here I cautiously gave numbers. I would

:12:53.:12:56.

still cautiously stay in. Depressingly I feel we would remain.

:12:57.:13:05.

In with a suppose so vote. None of you overly enthusiast take. We are

:13:06.:13:09.

right on a knife edge in terms of public opinions. We live in a world

:13:10.:13:17.

where the consensus opinion these days is usually wrong.

:13:18.:13:21.

I'll be back next week, same time same place.

:13:22.:13:25.

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