Browse content similar to 02/04/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
After a momentous week, Britain's journey out | :00:48. | :00:53. | |
Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home | :00:54. | :00:56. | |
We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard. | :00:57. | :01:02. | |
And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections - | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down? | :01:06. | :01:12. | |
In London, little sign of people changing their minds. MPs from | :01:13. | :01:21. | |
opposing sides give the view from there constituencies. | :01:22. | :01:28. | |
And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political | :01:29. | :01:31. | |
panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott | :01:32. | :01:33. | |
and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:34. | :01:39. | |
For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating | :01:40. | :01:41. | |
guidelines came as something of a shock. | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be | :01:45. | :01:49. | |
given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks. | :01:58. | :02:00. | |
Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking | :02:01. | :02:06. | |
We are going to look after Gibraltar. | :02:07. | :02:12. | |
Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way, | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without | :02:17. | :02:18. | |
the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much | :02:31. | :02:42. | |
ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this | :02:43. | :02:45. | |
negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They | :02:50. | :02:57. | |
will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early | :03:03. | :03:09. | |
example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the | :03:10. | :03:16. | |
dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At | :03:17. | :03:21. | |
certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power | :03:22. | :03:26. | |
than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by | :03:31. | :03:35. | |
laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain? | :03:41. | :03:47. | |
Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I | :03:48. | :03:54. | |
mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is | :04:04. | :04:09. | |
important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours, | :04:14. | :04:18. | |
and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail, | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper. | :04:38. | :04:43. | |
They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the | :04:58. | :04:59. | |
EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of | :05:00. | :05:07. | |
symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make. | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they | :05:17. | :05:20. | |
went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not! | :05:21. | :05:29. | |
Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is. | :05:30. | :05:33. | |
Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many | :05:39. | :05:45. | |
other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process. | :05:46. | :05:50. | |
Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their | :05:51. | :05:54. | |
interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate | :05:55. | :05:59. | |
accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50 | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness | :06:09. | :06:14. | |
and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a | :06:15. | :06:22. | |
real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are | :06:23. | :06:28. | |
going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting. | :06:29. | :06:35. | |
It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out. | :06:36. | :06:44. | |
So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much | :06:45. | :06:46. | |
But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door? | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
Or can we expect a bit of turbulence? | :06:51. | :06:52. | |
Are you taking back control, Prime Minister? | :06:53. | :06:55. | |
Big days in politics usually involve people shouting | :06:56. | :06:57. | |
and the Prime Minister getting in a car. | :06:58. | :06:59. | |
It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament. | :07:00. | :07:02. | |
But the short journey is the start of a much longer one | :07:03. | :07:04. | |
and we do not know exactly where we will all end up. | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
This is a historic moment from which there can | :07:10. | :07:12. | |
Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter, | :07:13. | :07:21. | |
was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU | :07:22. | :07:24. | |
He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted. | :07:25. | :07:27. | |
Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
were trying to work out what it all meant for the | :07:33. | :07:35. | |
So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter | :07:36. | :07:41. | |
The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit | :07:42. | :07:48. | |
deal and a future trade deal at the same time. | :07:49. | :07:51. | |
It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated | :07:52. | :07:53. | |
a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation | :07:54. | :07:55. | |
in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened. | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen | :08:00. | :08:03. | |
if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol. | :08:04. | :08:09. | |
We would not be able to access information in the same way | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
as we would as a member, so it is important, I think, | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that | :08:17. | :08:18. | |
enables us to work together in the way that we have. | :08:19. | :08:20. | |
That night, the Brexiteers were happy. | :08:21. | :08:22. | |
We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do. | :08:23. | :08:29. | |
Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party, | :08:30. | :08:32. | |
I am not sure that is actually Boris, though. | :08:33. | :08:41. | |
The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use | :08:42. | :08:56. | |
security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's | :08:57. | :08:56. | |
cooperation in this area if no deal was struck. | :08:57. | :08:57. | |
Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary. | :08:58. | :08:57. | |
We can both cope, but we will both be worse off. | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat, | :09:01. | :09:03. | |
David Davis had other business that morning, | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer | :09:07. | :09:08. | |
all EU law into British law to change later, | :09:09. | :09:11. | |
It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said, | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier | :09:17. | :09:18. | |
As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership | :09:19. | :09:25. | |
with the European Union, we are doing so from a position | :09:26. | :09:27. | |
where we have the same standards and rules. | :09:28. | :09:29. | |
It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
of European Union law in the UK as we exit. | :09:36. | :09:37. | |
There was, though, a small issue with the name. | :09:38. | :09:45. | |
The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill. | :09:46. | :09:48. | |
Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed | :09:49. | :09:50. | |
Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill. | :09:51. | :09:58. | |
So far, it had been a tale of two cities. | :09:59. | :10:00. | |
By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders | :10:01. | :10:04. | |
were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again, | :10:05. | :10:06. | |
set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy. | :10:07. | :10:13. | |
Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our | :10:17. | :10:18. | |
Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time, | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen. | :10:23. | :10:31. | |
The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach. | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
Brexit in itself is already punitive enough. | :10:36. | :10:42. | |
The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now | :10:43. | :10:45. | |
gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown | :10:46. | :10:47. | |
But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen | :10:48. | :10:58. | |
Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet. | :10:59. | :11:04. | |
We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative | :11:05. | :11:06. | |
The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK | :11:07. | :11:13. | |
until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you | :11:18. | :11:26. | |
can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I | :11:27. | :11:32. | |
assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything | :11:33. | :11:36. | |
is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked | :11:37. | :11:39. | |
about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make | :11:40. | :11:46. | |
a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this | :11:51. | :11:54. | |
country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound | :11:55. | :11:59. | |
divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of | :12:00. | :12:05. | |
this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think | :12:16. | :12:23. | |
some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly | :12:24. | :12:25. | |
unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to | :12:32. | :12:36. | |
pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited | :12:37. | :12:40. | |
about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be | :12:41. | :12:46. | |
anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion | :12:47. | :12:50. | |
euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get | :12:51. | :12:59. | |
everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access | :13:00. | :13:05. | |
for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be | :13:06. | :13:09. | |
prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we | :13:10. | :13:18. | |
get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves | :13:51. | :13:56. | |
here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If | :14:01. | :14:03. | |
there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take | :14:04. | :14:09. | |
to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really | :14:10. | :14:15. | |
rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant, | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be. | :14:25. | :14:29. | |
Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is | :14:30. | :14:35. | |
reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It | :14:36. | :14:40. | |
is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in | :14:41. | :14:44. | |
their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of | :14:45. | :14:48. | |
them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we | :14:53. | :14:56. | |
would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite | :15:01. | :15:09. | |
what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not | :15:14. | :15:21. | |
according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said, | :15:22. | :15:27. | |
they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does | :15:28. | :15:30. | |
not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can | :15:31. | :15:36. | |
discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free | :15:37. | :15:40. | |
trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for | :15:41. | :15:43. | |
us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned. | :15:44. | :15:51. | |
Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of | :15:52. | :15:59. | |
migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high | :16:04. | :16:10. | |
would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry | :16:11. | :16:16. | |
you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of | :16:21. | :16:25. | |
both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we | :16:26. | :16:32. | |
do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World | :16:33. | :16:36. | |
Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade | :16:42. | :16:45. | |
Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will | :16:46. | :16:49. | |
get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain | :16:59. | :17:04. | |
should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the | :17:05. | :17:08. | |
Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand | :17:14. | :17:20. | |
by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime | :17:21. | :17:24. | |
Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect | :17:25. | :17:28. | |
another small group of British people against another | :17:29. | :17:32. | |
Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to | :17:38. | :17:49. | |
Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading | :17:50. | :17:51. | |
Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain | :17:52. | :17:53. | |
having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes | :17:54. | :17:56. | |
with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should | :17:57. | :18:03. | |
the British government respond? The British government should show | :18:04. | :18:06. | |
resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with | :18:07. | :18:11. | |
free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very | :18:17. | :18:21. | |
confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank | :18:27. | :18:29. | |
you for joining us from Kent this morning. | :18:30. | :18:32. | |
Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten, | :18:33. | :18:34. | |
there are things happening other than Brexit. | :18:35. | :18:36. | |
In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs. | :18:40. | :18:42. | |
Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England, | :18:43. | :18:45. | |
In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370 | :18:46. | :18:50. | |
The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength | :18:51. | :18:56. | |
Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not | :18:57. | :19:03. | |
Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
combined authority mayors, and there will be contests | :19:08. | :19:10. | |
for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester, | :19:11. | :19:16. | |
Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls. | :19:17. | :19:19. | |
In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested, | :19:20. | :19:22. | |
many of them affected by boundary changes. | :19:23. | :19:24. | |
Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one | :19:25. | :19:27. | |
Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very | :19:33. | :19:39. | |
strong year for Labour, though independent | :19:40. | :19:40. | |
candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats. | :19:41. | :19:43. | |
According to the latest calculations by Plymouth | :19:44. | :19:44. | |
University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted | :19:45. | :19:50. | |
to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government, | :19:51. | :19:52. | |
But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties, | :19:53. | :19:59. | |
with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip | :20:00. | :20:01. | |
could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats. | :20:02. | :20:07. | |
Though the proportional system usually makes big changes | :20:08. | :20:09. | |
less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase | :20:10. | :20:12. | |
both the number of seats they hold, and the number | :20:13. | :20:14. | |
In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support. | :20:15. | :20:23. | |
Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down, | :20:24. | :20:26. | |
with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense. | :20:27. | :20:28. | |
Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru, | :20:29. | :20:31. | |
Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde. | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the | :20:35. | :20:41. | |
selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
because this is for the most part rural England. The only control | :20:47. | :20:49. | |
three of the council they are defending and they are only | :20:50. | :20:53. | |
defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham. | :20:54. | :20:58. | |
Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12 | :20:59. | :21:01. | |
months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now | :21:02. | :21:14. | |
with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England | :21:15. | :21:17. | |
were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour | :21:18. | :21:19. | |
to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic | :21:20. | :21:22. | |
for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them, | :21:23. | :21:26. | |
Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with | :21:27. | :21:30. | |
virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these | :21:31. | :21:34. | |
elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat | :21:35. | :21:38. | |
reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this | :21:39. | :21:42. | |
picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing | :21:43. | :21:46. | |
extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that | :21:47. | :21:54. | |
they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than | :21:55. | :21:57. | |
treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the | :21:58. | :21:59. | |
lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may | :22:04. | :22:07. | |
well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain | :22:08. | :22:11. | |
seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste | :22:12. | :22:14. | |
votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if | :22:15. | :22:19. | |
the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for | :22:20. | :22:21. | |
mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty | :22:22. | :22:55. | |
consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, | :22:56. | :22:57. | |
Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very | :22:58. | :22:59. | |
closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you | :23:00. | :23:02. | |
look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine | :23:03. | :23:05. | |
points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at | :23:06. | :23:07. | |
the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw. | :23:11. | :23:13. | |
Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West | :23:14. | :23:15. | |
Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that | :23:16. | :23:17. | |
would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince | :23:18. | :23:21. | |
people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in | :23:22. | :23:25. | |
truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has | :23:26. | :23:29. | |
Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats. | :23:30. | :23:35. | |
It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting | :23:40. | :23:46. | |
Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it | :23:47. | :23:52. | |
take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is | :23:53. | :23:57. | |
uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government | :23:58. | :24:01. | |
by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats | :24:02. | :24:06. | |
were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage | :24:07. | :24:10. | |
point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result | :24:11. | :24:14. | |
compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone -- | :24:15. | :24:23. | |
this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the | :24:24. | :24:25. | |
SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to | :24:26. | :24:28. | |
lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will | :24:29. | :24:32. | |
become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In | :24:33. | :24:37. | |
Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives | :24:38. | :24:41. | |
did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections, | :24:46. | :24:53. | |
repeating the third they suffered in the Holyrood elections last year. In | :24:54. | :24:55. | |
Wales, Labour is expecting to lose control of a number of councils. | :24:56. | :25:01. | |
They are the main party in 12 of 22 local authorities. How bad could it | :25:02. | :25:05. | |
be? We're expecting Labour to lose ground. In the opinion polls when | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
these seats were last fought, labourer in the high 40s. Now they | :25:10. | :25:15. | |
are not much above 30%. Cardiff could well join Glasgow was no | :25:16. | :25:20. | |
longer being a Labour stronghold. Look out for Newport. Some of the | :25:21. | :25:25. | |
South Wales councils that Labour control, Labour is | :25:26. | :25:39. | |
probably too but occasionally, Plaid Cymru surprises in this area. They | :25:40. | :25:42. | |
managed to win the Rhondda seat in the assembly elections. Jeremy | :25:43. | :25:44. | |
Corbyn has said he wants to be judged on proper elections, council | :25:45. | :25:46. | |
elections as opposed to opinion polls, but even if he does as badly | :25:47. | :25:49. | |
as John has been suggesting, does it affect his leadership? I think it | :25:50. | :25:56. | |
does on two counts. It will affect his own confidence. Anyone who is a | :25:57. | :25:59. | |
human being will be affected by this. He might go into his office | :26:00. | :26:03. | |
and be told by John McDonnell and others, stand firm, it is all right, | :26:04. | :26:08. | |
but it will affect his confidence and inevitably it contributes to a | :26:09. | :26:15. | |
sense that this is moving to some kind of denoument, at some point. In | :26:16. | :26:19. | |
other words, while I understand the argument that he has won twice in a | :26:20. | :26:26. | |
leadership contest, well, within 12 months, I wonder whether this can | :26:27. | :26:31. | |
carry on in a fixed term parliament, up until 2020, if it were to do so. | :26:32. | :26:37. | |
On two France, it will have some impact. I am not seeing it will lead | :26:38. | :26:42. | |
to his immediate departure, it will mark, but if these things are as | :26:43. | :26:46. | |
devastating as John suggests, it will have an impact. Tom, I'll be | :26:47. | :26:54. | |
looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That is the $64,000 question. It would | :26:55. | :26:58. | |
seem that we should be. One massive reason we're not having a general | :26:59. | :27:03. | |
election a time soon, apart from the fact that Theresa May does not | :27:04. | :27:06. | |
believe in these things, she believes in pressing on, it is | :27:07. | :27:12. | |
because Tory MPs in the South West who took the Lib Dem seats, they | :27:13. | :27:14. | |
were telling Number 10 they were worried they were going to lose | :27:15. | :27:18. | |
their seats back to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems never went away and | :27:19. | :27:22. | |
local government. They have got other campaigners and activists. It | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
looks credible that they will be the success story of the whole thing. | :27:27. | :27:31. | |
Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says this will be the most difficult | :27:32. | :27:36. | |
local elections his party will face before 2020. A bit of management of | :27:37. | :27:42. | |
expectations. It is unlikely to be a good time for Ukip. They are right | :27:43. | :27:48. | |
to manage expectations. The results will be horrible for Ukip. I agree | :27:49. | :27:50. | |
with Tom about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories. Talking to | :27:51. | :28:13. | |
some senior figures within the Tory party earlier this week, I was | :28:14. | :28:15. | |
picking up that they are worried about 30-40 general election seeds | :28:16. | :28:17. | |
being vulnerable to the Lib Dems because of the Labour collapse. I | :28:18. | :28:20. | |
would normally agree with Steve about the resilience of politicians, | :28:21. | :28:21. | |
the capability of withstanding repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is | :28:22. | :28:24. | |
not in the normal category. I think he is, in the sense that although he | :28:25. | :28:27. | |
get solace from winning leadership contest, anyone who leads a party | :28:28. | :28:30. | |
into the kind of, it is not going to be that vivid, because they are not | :28:31. | :28:35. | |
defending the key seats. If they were to win Birmingham, say, and get | :28:36. | :28:42. | |
slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, it will undermine what is already a | :28:43. | :28:45. | |
fairly ambiguous sense of self-confidence. We need to leave it | :28:46. | :28:47. | |
there. Thank you, John Curtice. Well, with those elections | :28:48. | :28:50. | |
on the horizon, is Labour where it Former leader Ed Miliband | :28:51. | :28:53. | |
was on the Andrew Marr Show earlier and he explained | :28:54. | :28:56. | |
the challenge Labour faces It is easier for other parties, | :28:57. | :28:58. | |
if you are the Greens or the Liberal Democrats you're essentially | :28:59. | :29:03. | |
fishing in the 48% pool. If you are Ukip, you are | :29:04. | :29:05. | |
fishing in the 52% pool. Labour is trying to do | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
something much harder, which is to try and speak | :29:10. | :29:11. | |
for the whole country, and by the way, that is another part | :29:12. | :29:13. | |
of Our attack on Theresa May, | :29:14. | :29:16. | |
part of it is she's Ignoring the verdict | :29:17. | :29:20. | |
going into this, saying, let's overturn it, looks | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
like ignoring the 52%. By the way, there is more | :29:27. | :29:28. | |
that unites Remainers and Leavers than might first appear, | :29:29. | :29:34. | |
because they share common concerns about the way | :29:35. | :29:36. | |
the country is run. Joining me now is the Shadow Health | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
Secretary, Jon Ashworth. Welcome to the programme. Alastair | :29:42. | :29:49. | |
Campbell told me on the BBC on Thursday that he is fighting to | :29:50. | :29:54. | |
reverse the referendum result. Ed Miliband says that Remain needs to | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
accept the result, come to terms with it. Who is right? We have to | :29:59. | :30:04. | |
accept the referendum result. I campaigned passionately to remain in | :30:05. | :30:09. | |
the European Union. The city I represent, Leicester, voted narrowly | :30:10. | :30:13. | |
to remain in the European Union. Sadly the country did not. We cannot | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
overturn that and be like kinky nude, trying to demand the tide go | :30:18. | :30:23. | |
back out. We have to accept this democratic process. We all voted to | :30:24. | :30:27. | |
have a referendum when the relevant legislation came to Parliament. How | :30:28. | :30:34. | |
bad will the local elections before Labour? Let us see where we get to | :30:35. | :30:45. | |
on election night when I am sure I will be invited on to one of these | :30:46. | :30:50. | |
types of programmes... The election date, the following day. But it does | :30:51. | :30:58. | |
look like you will lose seats across the board in England, Scotland and | :30:59. | :31:02. | |
Wales. What did you make of what Steve Richards said about the impact | :31:03. | :31:08. | |
on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We have to win seats, we cannot fall | :31:09. | :31:12. | |
back on the scales suggested. No, your package was right, it tends to | :31:13. | :31:20. | |
be Tory areas, but generally, we have to be winning in | :31:21. | :31:25. | |
Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those types of places because they contain | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
a lot of the marginal constituencies that decide general elections. The | :31:30. | :31:33. | |
important places in the elections are towns like Beeston, towns you | :31:34. | :31:39. | |
have not heard of, but they are marginal towns in marginal swing | :31:40. | :31:45. | |
constituencies. We have to do well in them. We will see where we are on | :31:46. | :31:50. | |
election night but my pretty is to campaign hard in these areas over | :31:51. | :31:56. | |
the next few weeks. Even people who voted Labour in 2015, they prefer | :31:57. | :32:01. | |
Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't | :32:02. | :32:06. | |
that extraordinary? I have not seen that. I will look it up. It was you | :32:07. | :32:16. | |
Government. -- YouGov. It is important we win the trust of | :32:17. | :32:20. | |
people. You are not winning the trust of people who voted for you in | :32:21. | :32:25. | |
2015. We have to hold onto people who voted for us in 2015 and we have | :32:26. | :32:30. | |
to persuade people who voted for other parties to come to us. One of | :32:31. | :32:34. | |
the criticisms I have of the debate that goes on in the wider Labour | :32:35. | :32:40. | |
Party, do not misunderstand me, I am not making a criticism about an | :32:41. | :32:43. | |
individual, but the debate you see online suggests that if you want to | :32:44. | :32:48. | |
get people who voted Conservative to switch to Labour it is somehow a | :32:49. | :32:53. | |
betrayal of our principles, it was not. Justin Trudeau said | :32:54. | :33:00. | |
Conservative voters are our neighbours, our relatives. We have | :33:01. | :33:06. | |
to persuade people to switch from voting Conservative to voting Labour | :33:07. | :33:12. | |
as well as increasing our vote among nonvoters and Greens. It seems like | :33:13. | :33:17. | |
you have a mountain to climb and the mountain is Everest. Another poll, I | :33:18. | :33:20. | |
am not sure if you have seen this, in London, the Bastian of Labour, | :33:21. | :33:31. | |
the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is less popular than even Ukip's Paul | :33:32. | :33:36. | |
Nuttall. That is beyond extraordinary! I do not know about | :33:37. | :33:43. | |
that. The most recent set of elections in London was the mayoral | :33:44. | :33:49. | |
election where the Labour candidate city: won handsomely. He took the | :33:50. | :33:54. | |
seat of a conservative. We took that of a conservative. It was a year | :33:55. | :34:04. | |
ago. We did well then. You had an anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I | :34:05. | :34:10. | |
think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, from memory. We have not got | :34:11. | :34:15. | |
elections in London but our elections are in the county areas | :34:16. | :34:23. | |
and the various mayoral elections... What about the West Midlands? In any | :34:24. | :34:29. | |
normal year, mid-term, as the opposition, Labour should win the | :34:30. | :34:34. | |
West Midlands. John Curtis says it is nip and tuck. It has always been | :34:35. | :34:40. | |
a swing region but we want to do well, of course. We want to turn out | :34:41. | :34:43. | |
a strong Labour vote in Dudley, Northampton, those sorts of places. | :34:44. | :34:49. | |
They are key constituencies in the general election. Does Labour look | :34:50. | :34:56. | |
like a government in waiting to you? What I would say is contrast where | :34:57. | :35:01. | |
we are to what the conservative garment is doing. I asked you about | :35:02. | :35:07. | |
Labour, you do not get to tell me about the Conservatives. Does it | :35:08. | :35:10. | |
look like a government in waiting to you? Today we are exposing the | :35:11. | :35:14. | |
Conservatives... Reminding people the Conservatives are breaking the | :35:15. | :35:20. | |
pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks so lots of elderly people waiting | :35:21. | :35:24. | |
longer in pain for hip replacements and cataract replacements. Yesterday | :35:25. | :35:30. | |
the Housing spokesperson John Healey was exposing the shortcomings in the | :35:31. | :35:35. | |
Help to Buy scheme. The education spokesperson has been campaigning | :35:36. | :35:39. | |
hard against the cuts to schools. Tom Watson has been campaigning hard | :35:40. | :35:42. | |
against some of the changes the Government want to introduce in | :35:43. | :35:47. | |
culture. The Shadow Cabinet are working hard to hold the | :35:48. | :35:51. | |
Government's feet to the fire. Does it look like a government in | :35:52. | :35:56. | |
waiting? Yes. It took you three times! There is a social care | :35:57. | :36:02. | |
crisis, schools funding issue, a huge issue for lots of areas, the | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
NHS has just got through the winter and is abandoning many of its | :36:08. | :36:13. | |
targets. You are 18 points behind in the polls. We have to work harder. | :36:14. | :36:20. | |
What can you do? The opinion polls are challenging but we are a great | :36:21. | :36:24. | |
Social Democratic Party of government. On Twitter today, lots | :36:25. | :36:29. | |
of Labour activists celebrating that the national minimum wage has been | :36:30. | :36:34. | |
in place for something like 16 years because we were in government. Look | :36:35. | :36:38. | |
of the sweeping progressive changes this country has benefited from, the | :36:39. | :36:42. | |
NHS, sure start centres, an assault on child poverty, the Labour Party | :36:43. | :36:46. | |
got itself in contention for government. I entirely accept the | :36:47. | :36:53. | |
polls do not make thrilling reading for Labour politicians on Sunday | :36:54. | :36:57. | |
morning, but it means people like me have to work harder because we are | :36:58. | :37:00. | |
part of something bigger than an individual, we are in the business | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
of changing things for the British people and if we do not do that, if | :37:04. | :37:07. | |
we do not focus on that, we are letting people down. Is Labour | :37:08. | :37:12. | |
preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the | :37:13. | :37:19. | |
press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became | :37:26. | :37:28. | |
Prime Minister. We are investing in staff and the organisational | :37:29. | :37:34. | |
capability we need. By the way, the Labour Party staff do brilliant | :37:35. | :37:38. | |
work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter having a go at them. They do | :37:39. | :37:42. | |
tremendous work. Whenever the election comes, they will be ready. | :37:43. | :37:43. | |
Jon Ashworth, thank you. We say goodbye to viewers | :37:44. | :37:52. | |
in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 | :37:53. | :37:56. | |
minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday | :37:57. | :38:00. | |
Politics where you are. To dissect the potential impact | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
of Brexit on the capital, For remain, Neil Coyle, Labour MP | :38:06. | :38:10. | |
for Bermondsey and Old Southwark. And Andrew Rossendale, | :38:11. | :38:17. | |
Conservative MP for Romford What we are going to do first off | :38:18. | :38:19. | |
is hear from Neil and Andrew, They have been reflecting on the | :38:20. | :38:27. | |
future for their constituents, each reporting from their own patch | :38:28. | :38:31. | |
on Wednesday, the day Welcome to Romford and to | :38:32. | :38:34. | |
Margaret Thatcher House. This was the heart of our campaign | :38:35. | :38:46. | |
last June as Romford and Havering voted 70% to leave | :38:47. | :38:52. | |
the European Union. There is a feeling of contentment | :38:53. | :38:55. | |
that we are back in the driving seat and that is why people around | :38:56. | :38:59. | |
here voted to leave. It was actually, I think, | :39:00. | :39:01. | |
more about sovereignty. We don't like what being | :39:02. | :39:06. | |
being told what to do. With ourselves and the Tories | :39:07. | :39:13. | |
and Ukip, we all work together in Havering to make this possible | :39:14. | :39:16. | |
and we did all work together. Members of six political parties | :39:17. | :39:19. | |
here in this borough worked together to achieve that great victory, | :39:20. | :39:23. | |
and so, this week, it is a fantastic celebration, not only | :39:24. | :39:27. | |
for what we achieved here in Havering but for the great | :39:28. | :39:30. | |
decision of the British people to take back control of our country | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
and to leave the European Union. It's a wonderful day to celebrate | :39:34. | :39:38. | |
a wonderful occasion. So, this week we celebrate | :39:39. | :39:48. | |
the triggering of Article 50, the beginning of the restoration | :39:49. | :39:51. | |
of our freedom as a nation, the rights of the British people | :39:52. | :39:55. | |
to make their own decisions As a Labour MP, I am sickened to see | :39:56. | :39:58. | |
people celebrating uncertainty caused by Theresa May's | :39:59. | :40:12. | |
actions this week. Bermondsey and Old Southwark, | :40:13. | :40:16. | |
many businesses have been in touch with me to outline their concerns | :40:17. | :40:19. | |
about leaving the European Union. I think the biggest issue | :40:20. | :40:21. | |
is the uncertainty of it. We seem to be going into | :40:22. | :40:24. | |
this whole new arena. The traders that talk to me say, | :40:25. | :40:31. | |
what is going to happen next? What is going to be | :40:32. | :40:34. | |
the restrictions on what we can do? We are here at Brindisa | :40:35. | :40:42. | |
at Borough Market. Brindisa is a Spanish food | :40:43. | :40:45. | |
specialist, contributing to the vibrant, creative food | :40:46. | :40:49. | |
and drinks sector we have, But a sector that is very worried | :40:50. | :40:51. | |
about the falling pound. Further devaluation | :40:52. | :40:56. | |
of the pound would obviously I think we will have | :40:57. | :41:00. | |
to look at other costs that might come into play, | :41:01. | :41:08. | |
such as legislation. The impact goes far, | :41:09. | :41:14. | |
far beyond just businesses. Universities losing access | :41:15. | :41:19. | |
to EU research funding British students could pay | :41:20. | :41:20. | |
more because of leaving The health and social care sector | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
in crisis but reliant The Government need to get real | :41:25. | :41:28. | |
and stop being dishonest Neil, are you going to be able | :41:29. | :41:32. | |
to find any kind of peace It is happening, but as I said | :41:33. | :41:40. | |
in the piece, the Government is not being honest with people | :41:41. | :41:46. | |
about the costs and consequences of what is happening and the dangers | :41:47. | :41:49. | |
and risks ahead of not having a deal in place in two years and to see | :41:50. | :41:53. | |
the UK Government using security as a bargaining chip in these | :41:54. | :41:57. | |
negotiations is frankly sickening. The idea that we would not support | :41:58. | :42:01. | |
another French or German government, whoever it might be, | :42:02. | :42:04. | |
to avoid a terrorist We will come onto the security | :42:05. | :42:06. | |
a little bit later. The wider point, not | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
being honest, what do you say? I don't know where Neil | :42:11. | :42:14. | |
is getting this from. The Prime Minister has made it very | :42:15. | :42:17. | |
clear that we are going to get the best possible agreement | :42:18. | :42:20. | |
with our friends, our That means trade, corporation | :42:21. | :42:22. | |
and it means security. Most countries in the world have | :42:23. | :42:27. | |
sensible bilateral arrangements. We are just as capable of having | :42:28. | :42:30. | |
a sensible arrangement with Europe What we are not going to be part | :42:31. | :42:33. | |
of and what the British people voted clearly against is to be | :42:34. | :42:39. | |
in a political union, It does not mean we cannot | :42:40. | :42:41. | |
still work with our friends on the continent and have | :42:42. | :42:46. | |
sensible bilateral cooperation. Celebration there, but what thought | :42:47. | :42:52. | |
do you give to the majority, the very big majority, | :42:53. | :42:54. | |
in your capital city, I think again we have | :42:55. | :42:56. | |
to look to the future. The British people | :42:57. | :43:02. | |
voted to leave the EU. Most of us who respect democracy | :43:03. | :43:05. | |
voted overwhelmingly in Parliament to invoke Article 50 and give | :43:06. | :43:11. | |
the Prime Minister the ability to get on with the job and get | :43:12. | :43:16. | |
the best possible arrangements The important thing now is surely | :43:17. | :43:19. | |
to rally around and ensure there is a confident | :43:20. | :43:30. | |
negotiating position The idea that this is a vote | :43:31. | :43:32. | |
against a political union when you have seen businesses | :43:33. | :43:38. | |
who are saying, they don't know of exporting will be, | :43:39. | :43:41. | |
they don't know what the costs They have seen a drop in the pound | :43:42. | :43:46. | |
already damaging their business, damaging their ability to invest | :43:47. | :43:50. | |
in further jobs. People are losing their jobs | :43:51. | :43:52. | |
right now as a result of what is going on and to see | :43:53. | :43:54. | |
people celebrating is... You make it sound as if | :43:55. | :43:57. | |
the economy has bombed. In my constituency, I can tell | :43:58. | :43:59. | |
you there are businesses who haven't The financial sector | :44:00. | :44:03. | |
is moving jobs out of London. The biscuit factory | :44:04. | :44:08. | |
in Wigan closed, blaming... The idea that the economy has gone | :44:09. | :44:10. | |
on as before is simply not true. As you enjoy your Italian | :44:11. | :44:16. | |
prosecco, was it? As you enjoy your prosecco, | :44:17. | :44:18. | |
what thought will you give Will you not be looking | :44:19. | :44:23. | |
for the signs or will you be in denial if businesses in your area | :44:24. | :44:27. | |
start going belly up? I want sovereignty restored | :44:28. | :44:30. | |
to the British people. Of course, any political change, | :44:31. | :44:33. | |
anything like this, you can have a Jeremy Corbyn government, | :44:34. | :44:37. | |
there would be a big drop in the pound then, | :44:38. | :44:42. | |
anything like that can Once we have adjusted, there may be | :44:43. | :44:44. | |
ups and downs, bumps in the road. Yes, the pound has fallen, | :44:45. | :44:51. | |
but I think that was necessary Long-term, it is in our interests | :44:52. | :44:54. | |
to take back control Hang on a second, let's move on, | :44:55. | :44:57. | |
that word, take back control, What should happen to immigration | :44:58. | :45:04. | |
levels in the capital? On his way back from Paris this | :45:05. | :45:08. | |
week, this is what the mayor, You say you want it, | :45:09. | :45:11. | |
we have been getting 30,000 odd Europeans in every year over | :45:12. | :45:22. | |
the last ten years, do you want to see that | :45:23. | :45:24. | |
figure go up or go down? I want to make sure we can meet | :45:25. | :45:27. | |
the needs of London. That means, obviously, | :45:28. | :45:29. | |
skilling up Londoners to have the skills for the jobs | :45:30. | :45:31. | |
we create in construction or tech or financial services, | :45:32. | :45:34. | |
but also recognising that one of the reasons why we are | :45:35. | :45:36. | |
the greatest city in the world Those industries are all saying | :45:37. | :45:39. | |
they want more people, so you happy for that number to go | :45:40. | :45:43. | |
up above 30,000 a year I will give you one simple | :45:44. | :45:46. | |
example in construction. We have, roughly speaking, 300,000 | :45:47. | :45:53. | |
construction workers in London. Of those half, between 10 | :45:54. | :45:55. | |
and 20% are going to Even if we were to skill | :45:56. | :46:01. | |
up our youngsters to have these jobs in construction we cannot | :46:02. | :46:05. | |
fill these vacancies. So you are happy for the immigration | :46:06. | :46:08. | |
level in London to go We have got to have a flexible | :46:09. | :46:10. | |
immigration system that recognises London's needs, | :46:11. | :46:17. | |
not just in construction, but in tech, in culture, | :46:18. | :46:19. | |
in finance and other Do you understand that people | :46:20. | :46:21. | |
will have less confidence in whether you're going to provide | :46:22. | :46:25. | |
a decent deal if you will not say whether you want more | :46:26. | :46:28. | |
or less immigration? No, they won't, because they voted | :46:29. | :46:30. | |
to stay in the EU, because they recognise | :46:31. | :46:33. | |
the contribution talent We have got one million Londoners, | :46:34. | :46:34. | |
for example, they are Londoners who are EU citizens, | :46:35. | :46:39. | |
contributing hugely to our economy. Andrew, you said something | :46:40. | :46:43. | |
about it in the film, but people, if you are honest, | :46:44. | :46:45. | |
voted a lot on immigration Well, I think that the idea that | :46:46. | :46:48. | |
Britain cannot control its immigration policy, | :46:49. | :46:53. | |
yes, they did not like that idea. They wanted to see an immigration | :46:54. | :46:56. | |
policy which is sensible, beneficial to Britain, welcomes | :46:57. | :47:06. | |
people that are here to work, but not one which gives preferential | :47:07. | :47:08. | |
treatment to European citizens while Commonwealth citizens | :47:09. | :47:11. | |
are prevented from coming in. Those constituents are economically | :47:12. | :47:13. | |
illiterate if you listen This country has always | :47:14. | :47:17. | |
had immigration. But we have given up control of how | :47:18. | :47:24. | |
we manage that immigration We are bringing back control | :47:25. | :47:27. | |
of immigration policy and borders. That is what the | :47:28. | :47:34. | |
British people want. You would have a system | :47:35. | :47:36. | |
where you treated EU residents You need a fair system where | :47:37. | :47:39. | |
everyone is treated on their merit, not on their nationality, | :47:40. | :47:43. | |
but what they can It should be a fair | :47:44. | :47:45. | |
and equal system. Leaving all the skills shortages | :47:46. | :47:48. | |
in areas such as construction to cleaning hospitals, | :47:49. | :47:51. | |
where you do not have the staff. We have always needed that | :47:52. | :47:53. | |
kind of immigration. It means if you are coming into work | :47:54. | :47:58. | |
in the United Kingdom, you have to go through the same | :47:59. | :48:05. | |
process, so an Austrian has to go through the same | :48:06. | :48:08. | |
process as an Australian. The Mayor of London seems to have | :48:09. | :48:10. | |
that difficulty saying he would not mind it going up if that happened, | :48:11. | :48:16. | |
if the economy expanded The idea that we need some kind | :48:17. | :48:19. | |
of artificial number is nonsense. What Sadiq is saying, | :48:20. | :48:25. | |
and the poll showed that the vast majority of Londoners | :48:26. | :48:28. | |
back his agenda for London and the support he has | :48:29. | :48:30. | |
offered to business, and if we need people | :48:31. | :48:33. | |
to come in to take on jobs that are available, why | :48:34. | :48:36. | |
would we want to stop that? Why would we want to stop people | :48:37. | :48:39. | |
coming, paying and contributing? The idea that we are taking back | :48:40. | :48:43. | |
control somehow is utter nonsense. The government has the right | :48:44. | :48:46. | |
to remove people from EU countries who have been here for three months | :48:47. | :48:50. | |
if they are not working and unable 300,000 EU citizens have come over | :48:51. | :48:53. | |
here over in the last Are you happy for that annual | :48:54. | :49:05. | |
figure, or over the next ten years, Are you happy, if we need it | :49:06. | :49:09. | |
for immigration, to go up? My concern with the number | :49:10. | :49:13. | |
is the pressure on public services. When people talk about immigration | :49:14. | :49:16. | |
in the context of the referendum, we need to factor in the fact it | :49:17. | :49:19. | |
became a proxy, because the Conservatives and the Lib Dems | :49:20. | :49:22. | |
before squeezed public services, That pressure on services | :49:23. | :49:24. | |
is what concerns people. If you get investment in public | :49:25. | :49:30. | |
services, would you then say If it is linked to taking on jobs | :49:31. | :49:35. | |
and contributing to our economy, why would we not want | :49:36. | :49:40. | |
to welcome that? Among the areas where the mayor | :49:41. | :49:42. | |
expressed particular concern during his three days in Europe | :49:43. | :49:46. | |
was security co-operation. That is our man in Brussels, | :49:47. | :49:49. | |
formally notifying the EU of Britain's decision to leave, | :49:50. | :49:53. | |
but who else was in town this week? The Mayor of London on his European | :49:54. | :49:56. | |
tour, cut short after last He was meeting with the Mayors | :49:57. | :49:59. | |
of Paris and Brussels, both cities also targeted in recent | :50:00. | :50:05. | |
years by terrorists. We are together, we will face | :50:06. | :50:07. | |
together the crazy situation that happened in Brussels last year, | :50:08. | :50:18. | |
and in London this year. Sadiq Khan emphasised | :50:19. | :50:23. | |
the EU's contribution It has made us safer | :50:24. | :50:25. | |
through cross-border policing, European arrest warrants, | :50:26. | :50:31. | |
intelligence sharing These may now be up | :50:32. | :50:34. | |
for renegotiation but after meeting with the EU's Security Commissioner, | :50:35. | :50:40. | |
Mr Khan stressed the It is in nobody's interests for us | :50:41. | :50:42. | |
to have less good links with our European partners | :50:43. | :50:49. | |
after Brexit, in relation Brexiters disagree that leaving | :50:50. | :50:51. | |
the EU could make us less safe. Our intelligence gathering | :50:52. | :51:02. | |
abilities, a lot of our security expertise, we are doing that | :51:03. | :51:04. | |
on a bilateral basis, most of that. We are doing it with other | :51:05. | :51:07. | |
European partners, but not In her letter to the EU, | :51:08. | :51:09. | |
the Prime Minister mentioned security 11 times, calling | :51:10. | :51:13. | |
for a special partnership that takes in both economic | :51:14. | :51:15. | |
and security cooperation. Something she stressed | :51:16. | :51:20. | |
to MPs this week. With Europe's security more fragile | :51:21. | :51:22. | |
today than at any time since the end of the Cold War, | :51:23. | :51:25. | |
weakening our cooperation and failing to stand up for European | :51:26. | :51:30. | |
values would be a costly mistake. Some are saying that | :51:31. | :51:36. | |
sounds like a threat. We're joined by Professor | :51:37. | :51:38. | |
Malcolm Chalmers from Before we get onto that, | :51:39. | :51:42. | |
whether or not it sounded like a threat, in a nutshell, | :51:43. | :51:48. | |
has being part of the EU enhanced There's both the more | :51:49. | :51:51. | |
technical level, police and intelligence cooperation, | :51:52. | :52:02. | |
an element of which is governed by EU wide agreements, | :52:03. | :52:05. | |
much of which is not. We will have to look at how | :52:06. | :52:08. | |
that is continued after Brexit. There is also the broader | :52:09. | :52:13. | |
foreign and security policy arrangements, | :52:14. | :52:16. | |
for example, agreeing EU sanctions against Russia, | :52:17. | :52:19. | |
Iran or whoever it might be. That is a mechanism | :52:20. | :52:23. | |
which we will have to redevelop in some other form once we leave | :52:24. | :52:28. | |
the European Union. Can you participate fully, | :52:29. | :52:36. | |
can you do a good job of countering terrorism and providing security | :52:37. | :52:39. | |
when you're outside The United States and | :52:40. | :52:40. | |
the European Union have many legally binding agreements in a number | :52:41. | :52:47. | |
of areas, not least on data sharing which is absolutely critical | :52:48. | :52:50. | |
in terms of intelligence. Once we are outside | :52:51. | :52:58. | |
the European Union, we will have to develop something of that sort | :52:59. | :53:00. | |
in order to replicate the benefits that the United States | :53:01. | :53:03. | |
or other major powers have. Nick Clegg, the former | :53:04. | :53:05. | |
Deputy Prime Minister, said this week that you would be | :53:06. | :53:07. | |
losing access to Schengen systems, data information systems, | :53:08. | :53:12. | |
absolutely crucial, he said. Is that absolutely crucial, | :53:13. | :53:15. | |
does that imperil our ability As the Prime Minister made clear | :53:16. | :53:17. | |
in the Article 50 letter, in the absence of any agreement | :53:18. | :53:22. | |
on security cooperation after Brexit, there would be real | :53:23. | :53:26. | |
risks, so it is very important for our security and the security | :53:27. | :53:30. | |
of our neighbours that we reach such such an agreement before we withdraw | :53:31. | :53:38. | |
from existing agreements. Do you think it sounded | :53:39. | :53:40. | |
like a threat, what she said today, the coupling together of that | :53:41. | :53:43. | |
with the trade deal? I was struck by how important | :53:44. | :53:45. | |
security was in our letter and how relatively unimportant | :53:46. | :53:48. | |
it was in the reply In the European reply, | :53:49. | :53:50. | |
the main emphasis was Security and counterterrorism | :53:51. | :53:53. | |
was mentioned, but in the Article 50 letter from the UK, | :53:54. | :54:03. | |
as your report suggests, There was considerable reference | :54:04. | :54:06. | |
to the increased dangers Security was almost put | :54:07. | :54:10. | |
on a par with economics. I do not think a direct threat | :54:11. | :54:15. | |
was made, but implicit in it was that nothing is agreed | :54:16. | :54:18. | |
until everything is agreed. We always deal in simplicities, | :54:19. | :54:20. | |
I am afraid, on this programme. If you had to answer whether this | :54:21. | :54:23. | |
made things more difficult, When we talk about whether or not | :54:24. | :54:26. | |
it was a threat, would we suffer, or would the EU suffer more from us | :54:27. | :54:36. | |
taking away our information, our Terrorism, organised crime, | :54:37. | :54:40. | |
cybercrime are all international phenomena which we have to tackle | :54:41. | :54:49. | |
through international cooperation, most of all with our neighbours, | :54:50. | :54:51. | |
but also globally. It does not make any sense | :54:52. | :54:56. | |
to make a calculation as to whether you increase | :54:57. | :54:59. | |
the probability of a terror attack in Paris more than the probability | :55:00. | :55:01. | |
of a terrorist attack in London. It is a shared concern | :55:02. | :55:04. | |
which we have to tackle together. Neil, you said at the beginning | :55:05. | :55:11. | |
of the programme you thought this is what we shouldn't be | :55:12. | :55:16. | |
using as a bargaining chip. What she's doing is just | :55:17. | :55:19. | |
stating a reality. If you want to treat the UK | :55:20. | :55:20. | |
properly and seriously, you will provide them | :55:21. | :55:23. | |
with a sensible trade deal, otherwise things like security | :55:24. | :55:25. | |
will suffer, it is inevitable? We have heard the government talk | :55:26. | :55:27. | |
about British people living in other EU countries and EU citizens living | :55:28. | :55:30. | |
here as bargaining chips, now we are seeing the government | :55:31. | :55:32. | |
trying to lever in that implicit threat of security being, | :55:33. | :55:37. | |
you know, the trade deal being contingent on what we share | :55:38. | :55:41. | |
in terms of security. It is an utterly despicable | :55:42. | :55:44. | |
gesture by the government. Actually if you look | :55:45. | :55:46. | |
at what the United Kingdom contributes to the security | :55:47. | :55:54. | |
and defence of Europe, it is more than any other country, | :55:55. | :55:58. | |
and that is going to continue. We are a responsible nation, | :55:59. | :56:04. | |
we want to work with our allies and partners within the EU, | :56:05. | :56:08. | |
via Nato, but as Gisela Stuart said Most countries have bilateral | :56:09. | :56:11. | |
agreements on these things. It is irresponsible to throw this | :56:12. | :56:21. | |
into the mix and say we might not cooperate on security if we do not | :56:22. | :56:25. | |
get the trade deal. What about the wider issue | :56:26. | :56:31. | |
of whether we will be any less We should recognise | :56:32. | :56:35. | |
that the security services in this country do an incredible job | :56:36. | :56:38. | |
of tackling domestic home grown terror of the kind we sadly saw | :56:39. | :56:41. | |
in London last week. But the idea that we would not | :56:42. | :56:44. | |
want to share and prevent attacks That is not what the Prime Minister | :56:45. | :56:47. | |
is saying, she is highlighting the importance of getting bilateral | :56:48. | :56:52. | |
security agreements in place, she is emphasising | :56:53. | :56:54. | |
the importance of this. The EU is almost taking it | :56:55. | :56:58. | |
for granted, and I do not I think we need to work together | :56:59. | :57:01. | |
with our European friends to make sure that all people of Europe | :57:02. | :57:05. | |
are safe and secure. You're saying they should not take | :57:06. | :57:08. | |
for granted that we share intelligence on threats to them, | :57:09. | :57:13. | |
or they are sharing threats with us. If we are to defeat terrorists, | :57:14. | :57:16. | |
prevent attacks, we must work Malcolm, a final word, | :57:17. | :57:19. | |
the European arrest warrant, which we have heard a lot about, | :57:20. | :57:26. | |
we come out of that Can we get exactly the same | :57:27. | :57:29. | |
arrangement afterwards? It is possible to get | :57:30. | :57:36. | |
the same arrangement. The point is that all of these | :57:37. | :57:39. | |
are about the rule of law, legally binding agreements | :57:40. | :57:42. | |
which strike the right balance between the rights of the individual | :57:43. | :57:45. | |
and the responsibility of state. The current advice given | :57:46. | :57:50. | |
by the European Court of Justice? Cyber security is another example | :57:51. | :57:52. | |
where the European Union regulations play a central role in how | :57:53. | :57:55. | |
we guide our firms You can have new legal arrangements, | :57:56. | :57:57. | |
but it is not simply a case of ad hoc bilateral | :57:58. | :58:03. | |
cooperation after Brexit. You have to have laws in place | :58:04. | :58:05. | |
to govern that relationship. Now for the rest of the political | :58:06. | :58:14. | |
news in 60 Seconds. The firm which operates | :58:15. | :58:28. | |
the Hong Kong metro has been awarded the franchise to run | :58:29. | :58:31. | |
South West Trains for seven years. The Department For Transport said | :58:32. | :58:35. | |
the new operators would oversee a ?1.2 billion investment to improve | :58:36. | :58:39. | |
journeys for millions A six-year cost-cutting partnership | :58:40. | :58:42. | |
between Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea | :58:43. | :58:48. | |
and Hammersmith and Fulham boroughs, to share some | :58:49. | :58:50. | |
services, has collapsed. Westminster and Kensington | :58:51. | :58:56. | |
and Chelsea authorities accuse Hammersmith and Fulham of appearing | :58:57. | :58:59. | |
to make alternative in-house plans without any formal engagement | :59:00. | :59:02. | |
with the other two local authority About 200 couriers are threatening | :59:03. | :59:05. | |
legal action against the takeaway They are claiming that they are | :59:06. | :59:16. | |
employees and entitled Deliveroo claims that delivery | :59:17. | :59:20. | |
riders are self-employed contractors and are not entitled | :59:21. | :59:23. | |
to basic employment rights. On this Brexit focused programme, | :59:24. | :59:32. | |
Neil Coyle, what now needs to happen over the next two years, | :59:33. | :59:35. | |
what are you watching for? My starting point is I would prefer | :59:36. | :59:43. | |
us not to be leaving the European Union, | :59:44. | :59:46. | |
but what the government needs to do is stop deceiving and committing | :59:47. | :59:48. | |
this fraud on British people, and outline the dangers | :59:49. | :59:52. | |
and costs that we face, so, British students pay more to go | :59:53. | :59:56. | |
to universities because universities do not have European funding | :59:57. | :59:59. | |
or international student numbers. Which hospitals do you want | :00:00. | :00:02. | |
to close, which social care services do you want to stop serving people | :00:03. | :00:05. | |
because they cannot recruit? What farms do you want | :00:06. | :00:08. | |
to stop operating? What are you going to say to the car | :00:09. | :00:09. | |
manufacturers who face What do you say to businesses | :00:10. | :00:12. | |
who want to recruit? What do you say to hotels | :00:13. | :00:16. | |
who are reliant on EU nationals? In about 35 seconds, | :00:17. | :00:20. | |
you have got hospitals, Frankly, we have a great future | :00:21. | :00:22. | |
ahead of our great United Kingdom. As long as people like Neil | :00:23. | :00:31. | |
and others stop the Remoaning, accept the will of the British | :00:32. | :00:33. | |
people, let's trade globally, make our own laws, work | :00:34. | :00:36. | |
with our friends and neighbours, let's support businesses and give | :00:37. | :00:38. | |
them the opportunity to be If we go on and on about being | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
unhappy about leaving, To both of you, thanks very | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
much indeed for doing So, what will be the effect | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
of new tax and benefit changes Will the Government's grand | :00:49. | :01:07. | |
trade tour reap benefits? And are the Lib Dems really | :01:08. | :01:11. | |
going to replace Labour, To answer that last question, | :01:12. | :01:13. | |
I'm joined by from Salford by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair | :01:14. | :01:25. | |
Carmichael. Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems | :01:26. | :01:37. | |
will replace Labour. How long will it take? We will have to wait and | :01:38. | :01:43. | |
see. Anyone who thinks you can predict the future is engaged in a | :01:44. | :01:49. | |
dodgy game. I have been campaigning with the Liberal Democrats in | :01:50. | :01:53. | |
Manchester... You must not mention... You know the by-election | :01:54. | :02:01. | |
rules. It is only an illustration. Across false ways of the country, | :02:02. | :02:05. | |
the Liberal Democrats are back in business -- across whole swathes of | :02:06. | :02:14. | |
the country. Part of the reason why we are getting a good response is | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
because the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a | :02:19. | :02:24. | |
self-destructive path. Even if you do pretty well in the local | :02:25. | :02:28. | |
elections, it you have to make up lost ground from the time you did | :02:29. | :02:33. | |
very well in previous times, you used to have 4700 councillors. It | :02:34. | :02:39. | |
will take you a long while to get back to that. You will get no | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
argument from me that we have a mountain to climb. What I'm telling | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
you is, and if this is not just in this round of elections, it is in | :02:49. | :02:52. | |
the other by-elections in places like Richmond, and in by-elections | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
write the length and breadth of the country since last June, the Liberal | :02:58. | :03:03. | |
Democrats are taking seats from the Labour Party under Conservative | :03:04. | :03:06. | |
Party, and not just in Brexit phobic areas. Not just in Remain areas. But | :03:07. | :03:13. | |
in places like Sunderland as well which voted very heavily for Brexit. | :03:14. | :03:19. | |
In fact, that vote was in large part as well a protest against the way in | :03:20. | :03:25. | |
which the Labour Party really has taken these areas for granted over | :03:26. | :03:30. | |
the years. That is why the ground is fertile for us. In the local | :03:31. | :03:33. | |
elections which is what we are discussing today, why would anybody | :03:34. | :03:39. | |
vote for the Liberal Democrats if they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren | :03:40. | :03:46. | |
has said he wants to reverse works. If you are Brexit supporter and you | :03:47. | :03:52. | |
are considering how to cast your vote, first of all, I think you will | :03:53. | :03:55. | |
be looking at the quality of representation you can get for your | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
local area and you are right, we have a lot of ground to recoup from | :04:00. | :04:08. | |
previous elections, we lost 124 seats, communities have now had a | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
few years to reflect on the quality of service they have been able to | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
get and they have missed the very effective liberal Democrat | :04:19. | :04:20. | |
councillors they have had. This is not just about whether you are a | :04:21. | :04:27. | |
believer or remainer, ultimately, that is an issue we are going to | :04:28. | :04:32. | |
have to settle and we will settle it not in the way the Government is | :04:33. | :04:37. | |
having by dictating the terms of the debate, but by bringing the whole | :04:38. | :04:40. | |
country together. I think that is something you can only do if, as we | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
have suggested, you give the people the opportunity to have a say on the | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
deal when Theresa May eventually produces it. The only way you could | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
really replace Labour in the foreseeable future would be if a big | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
chunk of the centre and right of the Labour Party came over and join due | :04:59. | :05:03. | |
in some kind of new social democratic alliance. -- joined you. | :05:04. | :05:10. | |
There is no sign that will happen? I do not see whether common purpose is | :05:11. | :05:13. | |
anymore holding the Labour Party together. That is for people in the | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
Labour Party to make their own decisions. Use what happened to the | :05:19. | :05:25. | |
Labour Party in Scotland. -- you saw. Politics moved on and left them | :05:26. | :05:31. | |
behind and they were decimated as a consequence of that. So was your | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
party. It is possible the same thing could happen to the Labour Party and | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
the rest of the UK. Politics is moving on and they are coming up | :05:41. | :05:45. | |
with 1970s solutions to problems in 2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks | :05:46. | :05:53. | |
for joining us. Let us have a look at some of the tax and benefit | :05:54. | :05:59. | |
changes coming up this week. The tax changes first of all. The personal | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
allowance is going to rise to ?11,500, the level at which you | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
start to pay tax. The higher rate threshold, where you start to play | :06:09. | :06:15. | |
at 40%, that will rise from currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 | :06:16. | :06:22. | |
5000. -- pay. Benefit changes, freeze on working age benefits, | :06:23. | :06:28. | |
removal of the family element of tax credits and universal credit, that | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
is a technical change but quite an impact. The child element of tax | :06:35. | :06:40. | |
credit is going to be limited to two children on any new claims. The | :06:41. | :06:47. | |
Resolution Foundation has crunched the numbers and they discovered that | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
when you take the tax and benefit changes together, 80% go to better | :06:52. | :06:57. | |
off households and the poorest third or worse. What help -- what happened | :06:58. | :07:05. | |
to help the just about managing? The Resolution Foundation exists to find | :07:06. | :07:12. | |
the worst possible statistics... It is not clear the figures are wrong? | :07:13. | :07:17. | |
They are fairly recent figures and I have not seen analysis by other | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
organisations. The Adam Smith Institute will probably have some | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
question marks over it. Nobody should be surprised a Tory | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
government is trying to make the state smaller... And the poor | :07:31. | :07:35. | |
poorer. The system is propped up by better off people and so it will be | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
those people who will be slightly less heavily taxed as you make the | :07:41. | :07:47. | |
state smaller. Theresa May will have to stop just talking about the just | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
about managing. And some of her other language and the role of the | :07:53. | :07:55. | |
government and the state when she sounded quite positive... She | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
sounded like a big government conservative not small government. | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
In every set piece occasion, she says, it is time to look at the good | :08:05. | :08:12. | |
the government can do. That is not what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would not have dared to say it either even | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
if they believed it. It raises a much bigger question which is, as | :08:23. | :08:28. | |
well as whether this is a set of progressive measures, the Resolution | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
Foundation constantly argued when George Osborne announced his budget | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
measures as progressive when they were regressive when they checked | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
out the figures, but also how this government was going to meet the | :08:41. | :08:44. | |
demand for public services when it has ruled out virtually any tax | :08:45. | :08:49. | |
rises that you would normally do now, including National Insurance. | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
There are a whole range of nightmare issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray | :08:54. | :08:58. | |
in relation to tax. The Resolution Foundation figures do not include | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
the rise in the minimum wage which has just gone under way. They do not | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
include the tax free childcare from the end of April, the extra 15 hours | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
of free childcare from September. Even when you include these, it does | :09:11. | :09:16. | |
not look like it would offset the losses of the poorest households. | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
Doesn't that have to be a problem for Theresa May? It really is a | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
problem especially when her narrative and indeed entire purpose | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
in government is for that just about managing. What Mrs May still has | :09:29. | :09:34. | |
which is exactly a problem they have at the budget and the Autumn | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
Statement is that they are still saddled with George Osborne's | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
massive ring fences on tax cuts and spending. They have to go through | :09:44. | :09:49. | |
with the tax cut for the middle classes by pushing up the higher | :09:50. | :09:52. | |
rate threshold which is absolutely going to do nothing for the just | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
about managing. When they try to mitigate that, for example, in the | :09:57. | :09:59. | |
Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was told to come up with more money to | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
ease the cuts in tax credits, came up with 350 million, an absolute... | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
It is billions and billions involved. Marginal adjustment. A | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
huge problem with the actual tax and benefit changes going on with what | :10:15. | :10:18. | |
Mrs May as saying. The only way to fix it is coming up with more money | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
to alleviate that. Where will you find it? Philip Hammond tried in the | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
Budget with the National Insurance rises but it lasted six and a half | :10:28. | :10:31. | |
days. I was told that it was one of the reasons why the Chancellor | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
looked kindly on the idea of an early election because he wanted to | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
get rid of what he regards as an albatross around his neck, the Tory | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
manifesto 2015, no increase in income tax, no increase in VAT, no | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
increase in National Insurance, fuel duty was not cut when fuel prices | :10:52. | :10:56. | |
were falling so it is hardly going to rise now when they are rising | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
again. This is why, I suggest, they end up in these incredibly | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
complicated what we used to call stealth taxes as ways of trying to | :11:06. | :11:10. | |
raise money and invariably a blow up in your face. Stealth taxes never | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
end up being stealthy. It is part of the narrative that budget begins to | :11:15. | :11:20. | |
fall apart within hours. You have to have sympathy, as Tom says, with | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
Philip Hammond. No wonder he would like to be liberated. The early | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
election will not happen. The best argument I have heard for an early | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
election. The tax and spend about at the last election was a disaster | :11:35. | :11:37. | |
partly because the Conservatives feared they would lose. Maybe they | :11:38. | :11:44. | |
could be a bit more candid about the need to put up some taxes to pay for | :11:45. | :11:51. | |
public services and it is very interesting what you picked up on | :11:52. | :11:53. | |
Philip Hammond because he is trapped. So constrained about... You | :11:54. | :11:59. | |
can also reopen the Ring fencing and spending and the obvious place to go | :12:00. | :12:05. | |
is the triple lock, OAP spending. Another case for an election. He | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
cannot undo the promise to that demographic. We will not get to 2020 | :12:11. | :12:16. | |
without something breaking. The Prime Minister, the trade secretary | :12:17. | :12:21. | |
and Mr Hammond, they are off to India, the Far East, talking up | :12:22. | :12:29. | |
trade with these countries, I do not know if any of you are going? Sadly | :12:30. | :12:36. | |
not. Will it produce dividends? The prime Minster is going somewhere | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
too. No, it will not, the honest answer. No one will do a trade deal | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
with us because we cannot do one because we are still in the EU and | :12:46. | :12:48. | |
they need to know what our terms will be with the EU first before | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
they can work out how they want to trade with us. This is vital | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
preparatory work. Ministers always go somewhere in recess, it is what | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
they do. We will not see anything in a hurry, we will not see anything | :13:02. | :13:06. | |
for two years. They have to do it. Whatever side of the joint you are | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
on, Brexit, remain, we need to get out there. -- the argument. We | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
should have been doing this the day after the referendum result. It is | :13:17. | :13:20. | |
now several months down the line and they need to step it up, not the | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
opposite. You can make some informal talks, I guess. You can say, Britain | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
is open for business. There is a symbolism to it. What a lot of | :13:30. | :13:35. | |
energy sucked up into this. Parliament is not sitting so they | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
might as well start talking. We have run out of energy and time. That is | :13:40. | :13:46. | |
it for today. We are off for the Easter recess, back in two weeks' | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
time. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is that | :13:51. | :13:52. | |
used to recess! -- Easter recess. Marine Le Pen has her eyes | :13:53. | :14:21. | |
on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself | :14:22. | :14:24. | |
from her party's controversial past, we follow the money and ask, | :14:25. | :14:28. | |
"Who's funding her campaign?" I think I've died and gone to | :14:29. | :14:52. | |
heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin. So, can anybody speak Italian? | :14:53. | :15:01. | |
No. Non parlo italiano. | :15:02. | :15:05. |