26/11/2017 Sunday Politics London


26/11/2017

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LineFromTo

Morning everyone and welcome

to the Sunday Politics.

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I'm Sarah Smith.

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And this is your essential briefing

on everything that's

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happening this Sunday morning

in the world of politics.

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Ireland says it will "continue

to play tough until the end"

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over the Irish border.

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As Dublin threatens

to derail Brexit trade

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talks, vice-president

of the European Parliament Mairead

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McGuiness tells us why she thinks

a hard border would cause havoc.

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Leading Brexiteer and former

Northern Ireland Secretary Owen

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Paterson will debate with her live.

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It was billed as a make or break

moment for the Chancellor -

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Phillip Hammond appears to have

avoided an omni or even

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a mini-shambles.

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We'll get Budget reaction

from the man who last month tried

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to topple Theresa May -

former Tory Chairman, Grant Shapps.

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And what did the Chancellor

do for the North?

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How affects it was Labour's

response?

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I'll be talking to the Mayor

of Greater Manchester,

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Labour's Andy Burnham.

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In London, with domestic violence

on the rise would a mandatory

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register for offenders help protect

women from abusive partners?

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All that coming up in the programme.

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So, no omni-shambles Budget.

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But don't worry, if you're a fan

of the shambolic you'll

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love our political panel,

Sam Coates, Zoe Williams

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and Iain Martin.

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Welcome to the programme.

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It has been the Budget that's

dominated the political week.

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There was no pasty tax

or national insurance U-turn -

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but there were sharp downgrades

for growth and productivity,

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offset by enough optimism

to cheer the Tory benches.

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This week's Budget was billed as

a make or break for Philip Hammond.

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His last effort in March contained

a manifesto-mangling national

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insurance rise which lasted

barely a week.

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Humiliated today, Chancellor?

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Will you resign?

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This time, his cheery demeanour

was perhaps designed

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to confound his critics

who think his outlook on Brexit

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is, well, miserable.

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What he's doing is very

close to sabotage.

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Regrettably, our productivity

performance continues to disappoint.

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But the downbeat tone

wasn't down to Hammond,

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it was the independent Office

for Budget Responsibility,

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the lower productivity projections

lead to growth forecasts

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of less than 2%.

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Here's the new realistic forecast,

average growth of just 1.4% a year.

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A slowdown that won't go away.

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The Chancellor may not have

been able to drive up

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productivity and growth,

but he has a cunning plan to remove

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the need to drive at all.

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David Cameron's old mate

Jeremy Clarkson is reported to be

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less than impressed.

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Jeremy Clarkson doesn't like them.

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But there are many other good

reasons to pursue this technology.

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So today we step up

our support for it.

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Sorry, Jeremy, but definitely not

the first time you've been

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snubbed by Hammond and May.

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More money for the English health

service, a Brexit fund

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and abolishing stamp duty

for first-time buyers

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lifted the mood.

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I commend this

statement to the house.

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But senior figures in the NHS said

the new money was not enough

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and less, in this Budget at least,

than the amount pledged for Brexit,

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giving some Remainers

plenty of fun on Twitter.

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It turned out the stamp duty

changes would mainly help

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people selling a house,

not buying them.

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Tweaks to the Universal Credit

system soothed Tory concerns,

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but they didn't calm

the Labour leader.

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Uncaring!

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The uncaring, uncooth attitude

of certain members opposite!

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Order!

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Order!

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And his Shadow Chancellor had

some number trouble.

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How much do we now spend on paying

the interest of our national debt.

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A lot.

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How much?

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Well, I'll give you the figure.

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I'll send you a note on the figure.

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You don't know?

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I know the figure...

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How much?

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I'll send it.

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Well, you tell me now.

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The forecast may be sticky,

but at least the Daily Mail

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had a positive outlook.

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Phil was no longer

a miserable donkey.

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And by the end of the week,

the Chancellor could still smile.

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He might even stay in Number 11

long enough to deliver

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next year's Budget.

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We're joined now by the former

Conservative Party

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Chairman, Grant Shapps.

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Thank you very much for coming in.

No banana skin in the Budget for

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Philip Hammond, but really dismal

growth prospects. What is the

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government back to doing wrong?

Well, first of all, he cheered up

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the backbenches by giving quite an

upbeat assessment. The economy is

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still growing, the jobs factory of

Europe. Not words we are used to

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hearing from Philip Hammond.

But

overall, growth prospects are really

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bad, they have been significantly

downgraded.

Of course, the really

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big story is the Office for Budget

Responsibility say we are going to

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grow at 1.5%, not 2%. That is a real

problem. I thought Philip's

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presentation of the issue was

interesting. He said this is of the

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outside of our control, it is the

office of Budget response ability.

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It is to do with productivity, who

knows what that is made up of? That

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sort of excuses get mug from having

to do anything. There are things we

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can do to attract business to this

country. You have the tax base, the

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attitude towards business. We spent

quite a while looking like we were

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not interested in business, business

being thought of as bad. I am

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pleased to see that is changing.

You

think the few has a pro-business

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attitude that wasn't there a year

ago?

We have them locked out of

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Downing Street for a while, sector

leaders could not express their

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concerns. Some conference speeches

that business as the bad guys rather

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than job creators. That seems to

have gone and I welcome it.

Why?

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Because it is not realistic to

believe that business is evil and

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bad. Business people that create the

jobs for this country, the well for

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this country...

But why do you think

the government but robust change the

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message on that?

It is hard to know

what created that. Since the

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election we have a change in

emphasis. Business leaders are now

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welcomed to come and talk to the

Prime Minister and the Chancellor

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about what is going on. One thing we

could do now, we are leaving Europe,

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we had all of those red tape

challenges in the Coalition

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Government but we always got stuck

when it got to the EU. We had to

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say, we can't do anything about that

red tape. We can now go back on

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that. I would like the cupboard to

go further and not just accept

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figures from the Office for Budget

Responsibility. I'm actually

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doubtful about that and I think that

Philip Hammond is as well. Growth of

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productivity is a difficult thing to

measure. This country trades more

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online than any other country in the

world. We are top of that league

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table. That has to be a more

efficient way to do business. Yet it

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does not seem to be reflected in

productivity.

They are forecasts,

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the productivity figures. But the

middle, things could be worse, the

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OBR say. The... Seems to say these

are the projections, we hope it

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isn't that. Is it the Buttler's job

to do something about productivity?

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The government EU has a role to

play. I started a printing business

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which still exists to this day.

Uncertainty over Brexit could lead a

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business like that to delay

purchasing a new press. One that is

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likely to be faster, less setup

time, print stuff faster.

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Uncertainty in the economy slows

that down. Of course the Government

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has a role. It cannot act the way it

treats taxation, investment, it can

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encourage businesses. Actually, I

suspect what the Office for Budget

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Responsibility has done is said, oh,

all of this uncertainty has lead to

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slower productivity and therefore we

will continue projecting forward,

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almost ad infinitum. The projections

went up five years. If we can get

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the Brexit uncertainty out of the

way...

That is what I was about to

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say. The great uncertainty is under

Brexit. We are not entering a period

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where things will be more certain

people can confidently make

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investment decisions, nobody knows

what the future trading relationship

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will be.

I think Government can help

with that. If you have a Government

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that, at its heart, fundamentally,

is singing from the same hymn sheet,

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you saw Number 10 and Number 11,

finally, a bit of banter between the

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two of them, the Chancellor and the

Prime Minister, they went out on

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Thursday and did a visit together.

You have a Cabinet meeting reported

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from Tuesday where they are agreeing

how to go forward collectively on

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Europe. If you can have the central

government working in unison, it

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gives business of evidence, it gives

the economy confidence that maybe

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you can get to faster growth by

having better productivity and more

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inward investment.

Six weeks ago you

were calling for the Prime Minister

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to stand down. You were outed as

leading a coup against her. Have you

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changed your mind?

I saw your

lead-in, calling colleagues that

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want to go and speak to the Prime

Minister about a perfectly sensible

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subject that she herself has asked

for colleagues' opinions on, how

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long should I be in this role, to

call it a plot is tabloid. The

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reality is, of course colleagues

should be able to have that

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conversation. We do not live in

North Korea. We shouldn't be not

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allowed to express views, nor do

they disappear if you don't express

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them.

You said your colleagues have

buried their heads in the sand,

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hoping things would get better. It

never got better for Gordon Brown or

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John Major, it will not get that for

Theresa May. Have you changed your

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mind

I think that colleagues should

be allowed to have views and express

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them. My views have not changed.

However, I also accept the reality

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of the situation, that we are in a

very sensitive period with Brexit

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negotiations. Six weeks ago is six

weeks ago. Time moves on and Brexit

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negotiations wait 101. What we have

to do have is a Government that is

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capable of singing from the same

hymn sheet, going to Brussels. If

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you have Number 10 and Number 11 at

each other's throats, when you have

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people been briefed against the

centre, whips that are more

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interested in... We have mutineers

on the front of the Telegraph, 50

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people that wanted not to have the

date for Brexit in the bill. I don't

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happen to agree with those people.

But to have colleagues accused of

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being mutineers because they have a

slightly diverted the view is

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ridiculous. -- diverted view. I am

pleased what we are seeing now is an

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attitude from the centre saying

let's work together, let's not

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briefed against others, let's get on

and stop the country from the even

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bigger danger than Brexit, a Jeremy

Corbyn government.

Stay there for a

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moment. I am going to bring in the

panel. You were listening to that

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interview. A change in mood towards

the Prime Minister?

Haven't seems to

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have cheered up a lot. He seemed to

me like a man giving his own leaving

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speech. There was a devil may care

attitude aspect, not really backed

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up by what you're saying. They

wanted always. There would be OBR

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figures to be nothing to do with a

Government. Unfortunately they have

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revised down, there is nothing we

can really do. At the same time,

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they wanted to show Conservative

policies are capable of driving

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growth. They want to say,

unfortunately it is not a generous

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Budget because growth figures are

revised downwards, while at the same

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time saying that the OBR is often

wrong, who knows if it will be

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correct. I don't think you get any

clear analysis from this.

Cake and

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eat it?

The significance is not

really economic, it is political. If

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you go back a week, it seemed

possible, likely even, that the

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Chancellor was going to be replaced

in a reshuffle expected between now

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and Christmas. He has saved his job.

His critics in other parties will

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say, well, his job should be about

more than his own personal survival.

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But it alters the dynamics. It means

that the government but was not

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quite Chancellor, it means a

reshuffle could be less substantial

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than might have been the case. It

seems the Tories have had a shocking

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run over the last few months. They

were rather buoyed up by it. Not

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that it was a massive success as a

Budget, it was just OK. That counts

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for quite a lot at the moment.

Listening to what Grant Shapps was

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telling us, it sounds like Theresa

May's job is safe as well?

I would

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if she is sitting in Downing Street

wearing a badge saying Philip

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Hammond saved my job? The point is,

just to pull out the camera, the

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fundamentals have not changed. The

Conservatives did not win an overall

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majority at the election, they still

have to deliver Brexit in an

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incredibly complicated process, that

looks intractable with negotiation

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difficulties, particularly with

Ireland, but also bringing the

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Cabinet together over some of these

incredibly thorny issues about where

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Brexit is going to end up. Although

Grant is putting a positive gloss on

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it now, the conference after which

he was adjusted people might

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consider her going -- after which he

suggested people might consider her

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going, things have not really

changed. He says his view has not

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really changed, and I think that

many of the people that Grant talks

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to, they have not changed their

fundamental view about the talents

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and otherwise of Theresa May. I

wonder how many people think what

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Grant thinks at the moment?

We will

come back to you and ask you that.

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How many people agree with you? Do

you still have the same view about

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the Prime Minister?

I have said

exactly what I think. You don't have

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to second-guess what I think about

all of this. Nor do I think it is

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worth day by day giving a running

commentary on that. I was heartened

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to see Number 10 and number 11

working together. We can make some

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progress. I think that is a very

good thing. The lesson to be

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learned, just because people have

diverse views, it has not been there

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should be vilified. I think we were

in danger of doing that through the

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whips or Number 10, or what have

you. I'm pleased to see we have a

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more mature attitude coming from

Downing Street.

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You once said you thought you would

make a good Prime Minister yourself,

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do you still think that?

The

question was do you have the

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required ability to make these

decisions and the rest of it. To

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answer that question would be as if

to say I don't think she should be

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doing it but that's not what I think

at all. I think this country

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requires leadership which unites

particularly those involved in the

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Government and I'm pleased that's

what we are now starting to get.

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Grant Shapps, thanks for coming to

talk to us today.

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Now, the Northern Powerhouse

was a phrase coined

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by Philip Hammond's predecessor,

George Osborne.

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But Theresa May has insisted

that she wouldn't be

0:16:310:16:33

pulling the plug on it.

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So how did it fare in

this month's Budget?

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Joining us now from

Salford is the Mayor

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of Greater Manchester,

Andy Burnham.

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Thanks for coming in. I assume you

must be very pleased with the Budget

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and the amount of money delivered

for the Northern Powerhouse?

When I

0:16:440:16:48

came into this job I was clear I

would never play politics for the

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sake of it. There was good news in

this Budget for Manchester, money

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which we need very much, money to

help us tackle rough sleeping.

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Again, a big priority for me. But

overall I have to say it is pretty

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thin pickings for the north of

England. The headline measure on

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stamp duty massively benefits the

South over the north and people here

0:17:160:17:18

who are suffering every day on the

rail system, our clapped-out rail

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system, they didn't get any good

news in terms of electrification or

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improvement of services. All we got

was an -- promise of improvement of

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mobile services.

The Government is

giving new £12 million to help cover

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the cost relating to the Manchester

Arena attack. You must be welcoming

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of that too.

This is difficult

because I'm conscious whenever this

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issue comes up, I'm conscious of the

families. We put our bid in some

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time ago. The cost we have incurred

so far is 17 million and we have a

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further 11 million we will incur

through the inquest process. We have

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been raising that privately and I

haven't gone public on this issue

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until the Prime Minister said last

week we would have the answer, and

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we got that on Friday. It falls some

way short. I cannot see why the

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Government is not meeting our cost

in full. As I said at the beginning,

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I would never make politics out of

this issue but when we got our

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answer and it wasn't good enough I

had to make our position clear. I

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will be replying to the Prime

Minister saying let's sort this out

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properly. I just hope we can now get

a full agreement for all of our

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costs from the Government.

You've

accused the Government before of

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being London centric and ignoring

other parts of the UK. Given that

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you have welcomed of the spending

measures, do you feel that problem

0:18:510:18:57

has been addressed?

Definitely not.

The country is London centric. The

0:18:570:19:02

way transport investment is assessed

by the Treasury favours the areas

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where there is already greater

economic growth. The system is

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biased against the north and that

needs to change. In the Budget we

0:19:100:19:15

got a half-hearted commitment to the

rail system of the future for the

0:19:150:19:19

north of England but Crossrail 2,

the project in London, got more of a

0:19:190:19:25

thumbs up. I'm speaking for people

here who feel this has been very

0:19:250:19:31

unfair over decades. We have a

transport system here that is

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creaking now and it is completely

congested, it isn't working for

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people. The Government needs to grip

that problem much more directly. The

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problem I guess with this Budget was

there's an elephant in the room and

0:19:440:19:48

that is the Brexit Divorce Bill.

There was a feeling for me they were

0:19:480:19:53

not committing money our

infrastructure cause of this thing

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looming behind. To have no mention

of social care, no mention of police

0:19:570:20:02

funding, these were two gaping holes

at the heart of this Budget.

Surely

0:20:020:20:08

you think they should be making a

generous offer for the Brexit

0:20:080:20:13

divorce settlement? You are not

advocating that we walk away without

0:20:130:20:17

paying our dues?

No, my point was a

different one. It looks like the

0:20:170:20:24

Government is holding back on the

investment the north of England

0:20:240:20:27

needs until they have settled this

question, but the challenges facing

0:20:270:20:32

our public services and the

productivity challenge facing the

0:20:320:20:35

north is urgent and it is critical

we get that investment so we can

0:20:350:20:39

rise to the challenge of exit. I saw

this as a Budget where the

0:20:390:20:44

Chancellor was holding back. This

year of all years, to have no

0:20:440:20:50

mention of police security

counterterrorism in the Budget

0:20:500:20:53

seemed a monumental mistake. The

police service here has not got much

0:20:530:20:57

left to give. It is down to the bare

minimum and we need to see the

0:20:570:21:04

Chancellor bringing forward new

funding for the police in the

0:21:040:21:08

December settlement that it's about

to get. To have no mention of it

0:21:080:21:12

just seemed to me to be a major

mistake.

What did you make of Jeremy

0:21:120:21:18

Corbyn's response to the Budget?

I

thought it was passionate. I don't

0:21:180:21:25

think they will deal with the issue

of Universal Credit.

It was

0:21:250:21:31

passionate but was it effective?

I

think so. People want to see people

0:21:310:21:36

speaking with that level of

commitment, genuine concern. The

0:21:360:21:41

dangers are still there with

Universal Credit. Tinkering with the

0:21:410:21:44

waiting times I don't think will

take away the problem that it could

0:21:440:21:48

put more people on our streets,

huddled in doorways. The Government

0:21:480:21:52

needs to give a clear commitment

that we won't see people spiralling

0:21:520:21:57

into debt and then at the risk of

being homeless as a result of

0:21:570:22:01

Universal Credit roll out.

The day

after the Budget John McDonnell got

0:22:010:22:06

in a muddle over his figures on debt

repayment. He must -- you must have

0:22:060:22:12

been cringing as you watched some of

those interviews.

You always get

0:22:120:22:16

these interviews after the Budget. I

have sat in those positions and I

0:22:160:22:22

think it is partly what turns people

off politics. I'm not here

0:22:220:22:26

necessarily to speak for the front

bench, I thought they mounted a good

0:22:260:22:30

critique of the Budget. What I want

is a more wholehearted embrace of

0:22:300:22:36

devolution from both political

parties. The challenge the country

0:22:360:22:39

is facing right now is that we are

to London centric, Brexit is

0:22:390:22:44

looming, we need investment in the

regions and I don't think we can

0:22:440:22:48

bring this power back from Brussels

and then keep it all in Westminster.

0:22:480:22:53

We are already in overcentralised

country and its crucial the power is

0:22:530:22:57

passed down to places like Greater

Manchester and I want to see both

0:22:570:23:00

parties embracing that is part of

the response to the referendum.

I'm

0:23:000:23:04

not asking you to speak for the

Labour front bench, but how did it

0:23:040:23:09

look to you when they were

responding to it, you will know

0:23:090:23:13

Labour are trailing in the polls on

economic competence - did they do

0:23:130:23:18

enough this week to adjust people's

view as to whether or not Labour

0:23:180:23:21

should be put in charge of the

economy?

That is the challenge that

0:23:210:23:26

the Labour Party has to convince the

country it can run a stronger

0:23:260:23:30

economy. The Shadow Chancellor has

put investment in infrastructure

0:23:300:23:34

front and centre of what he's saying

and I think he's absolutely right to

0:23:340:23:39

do that. The country is crying out

for that transport system,

0:23:390:23:51

particularly here in the north that

will allow us to improve

0:23:510:23:53

productivity and they are not

getting that from the current

0:23:530:23:55

Chancellor. Looming questions about

the Divorce Bill, so therefore he

0:23:550:23:57

won't commit to the investment now.

What you got from the Shadow

0:23:570:24:00

Chancellor was a clearer analysis of

what the country needs, and I think

0:24:000:24:04

that's what people want to hear.

Andy Burnham, thank you for coming

0:24:040:24:09

in to talk to us.

0:24:090:24:12

Last week we had a film from Leave

campaigner Gisela Stuart on why

0:24:120:24:15

business will continue to prosper

across Europe after Brexit.

0:24:150:24:18

This week, London and Dublin have

clashed over what will

0:24:180:24:20

happen to the border

between Northern Ireland

0:24:200:24:22

and the Irish Republic -

something the EU says needs to be

0:24:220:24:25

resolved if Brexit negotiations

are to move onto trade next month.

0:24:250:24:27

So today, Irish MEP and vice

president of the European

0:24:270:24:30

Parliament, Mairead McGuiness,

takes us to the border to explain

0:24:300:24:33

why she thinks Brexit

could cause business -

0:24:330:24:38

and the people on the

island of Ireland -

0:24:380:24:41

considerable difficulties.

0:24:410:24:42

This is Dundalk in County Louth,

a town close to the border

0:24:530:24:56

with Northern Ireland,

and close to where I grew up myself.

0:24:560:24:59

Today, I represent the constituency

along that 310 mile border.

0:24:590:25:03

With the Brexit negotiations

ongoing, people along the border

0:25:030:25:05

are troubled by the uncertainty.

0:25:050:25:11

From Dundalk, you can take

a straight road to Northern Ireland

0:25:110:25:14

and there's no stopping.

0:25:140:25:19

At the last count, there are over

300 different road crossings

0:25:190:25:22

between the Republic of Ireland

and Northern Ireland.

0:25:220:25:27

The big question is,

what will change post-Brexit?

0:25:270:25:29

And what do we have to do to keep

the situation as it is today?

0:25:290:25:33

For me, there is only one way,

that the United Kingdom stays

0:25:330:25:36

in the customs union.

0:25:360:25:41

But I know the UK are

determined not to do that.

0:25:410:25:43

I think the negotiations

are struggling.

0:25:430:25:45

Not too far from the border

crossing, just south,

0:25:450:25:47

I caught up with beef farmer Jim

Murray.

0:25:470:25:49

That's the actual border

itself, just ahead.

0:25:490:25:51

The actual border is about

half a mile past that.

0:25:510:25:53

Today it is frictionless

and seamless, and invisible.

0:25:530:25:56

Totally.

0:25:560:25:58

Do think it's going to stay

that way after Brexit?

0:25:580:26:00

Well, I hope it will stay like that,

because were used to this.

0:26:000:26:03

Well, I hope it will stay like that,

because we're used to this.

0:26:030:26:06

I come from a time when I remember

that you couldn't actually go down

0:26:060:26:10

that road to access,

to do some business

0:26:100:26:12

in the north, because the road

was actually blocked.

0:26:120:26:14

Have you been reassured by any

of the political statements around

0:26:140:26:16

the border in particular,

basically saying that things

0:26:160:26:18

will stay as they are?

0:26:180:26:19

I haven't, really, because seamless

and frictionless borders, you know,

0:26:190:26:22

to me it is an oxymoron.

0:26:220:26:25

Because it's still a border.

0:26:250:26:27

I also visited George McArdle.

0:26:270:26:29

He's been running a haulage

company for the last 50

0:26:290:26:31

years with experience

of crossing the border.

0:26:310:26:34

What are you worried about?

0:26:340:26:36

We're worried about

customs and delays.

0:26:360:26:41

We'd be delayed a couple of hours.

0:26:410:26:46

Would there be costs

involved for you?

0:26:460:26:51

We'd be paying drivers,

the trucks lying idle.

0:26:510:26:53

People say that, while we have

peace, it is fragile.

0:26:530:26:55

It's very fragile.

0:26:550:26:56

Any little thing could upset

the whole thing again,

0:26:560:26:58

and we wouldn't like to see Brexit

be the cause of it.

0:26:580:27:01

We are moving from the Republic

of Ireland, just across the border,

0:27:070:27:10

and I'm now in Northern Ireland.

0:27:100:27:16

It was very smooth,

seamless and frictionless.

0:27:160:27:18

I suppose that's what we want to see

continue in a post-Brexit era.

0:27:180:27:23

Just across the border

into Northern Ireland, I caught

0:27:230:27:25

up with Des Fraser,

who gave me his view

0:27:250:27:27

about why the United Kingdom

decided to leave Europe.

0:27:270:27:29

First of all it was the cost.

0:27:290:27:32

I also felt, particularly the likes

of the slurry ban, for agriculture,

0:27:320:27:35

I don't think there should be

somebody in Brussels

0:27:350:27:37

telling us when we can

or can't spread our slurry.

0:27:370:27:39

What effect do you think Brexit

would have on the border?

0:27:390:27:42

Do you think we're going to be able

to avoid a hard border?

0:27:420:27:45

Getting a solution is

the difficulty, there's no doubt.

0:27:450:27:47

There's a harmonious

relationship, you know,

0:27:470:27:50

with Europe and Switzerland,

Europe and Norway, without a hard

0:27:500:27:53

border in existence.

0:27:530:27:56

It's very clear that people on both

sides of the border want the special

0:27:560:27:59

circumstances on the island

of Ireland to be taken into account

0:27:590:28:02

in the Brexit negotiations.

0:28:020:28:05

But can it be and will it be done

in time for the December council?

0:28:050:28:10

Will we resolve the conundrum

and square the circle

0:28:100:28:12

of an invisible border on the island

of Ireland post-Brexit?

0:28:120:28:18

And Mairead McGuiness

joins us now from Dublin.

0:28:220:28:25

The former Northern Ireland

Secretary and leading Brexiteer,

0:28:250:28:30

Owen Paterson, is in Shropshire.

0:28:300:28:34

Thank you both for joining us. Owen

Paterson, Mariad laid out her case,

0:28:340:28:48

does the Government have an answer

to this?

Yes, there's already an

0:28:480:28:53

existing border. I've been going

there since ten years ago. There's a

0:28:530:29:03

currency board, now a euro sterling

border, a VAT border, a corporation

0:29:030:29:08

tax border, and in all the time I've

been going to Northern Ireland and

0:29:080:29:13

the public, not a single person ever

said this presents a problem.

...

0:29:130:29:26

Physical border.

Through the

referendum campaign, we made it

0:29:260:29:34

clear there are electronic measures

and techniques, existing techniques

0:29:340:29:38

such as authorised economic

operators and this can all be made

0:29:380:29:42

to work if there is a will on the

border. It has a small amount of

0:29:420:29:48

trade. Northern Ireland has 80% of

its trade to the rest of the UK,

0:29:480:29:56

only 5% goes over the border. It

would be very easy to license

0:29:560:30:03

tankers that take milk over the

border as authorising economic

0:30:030:30:07

operators that go over every day,

they would be recognised on a

0:30:070:30:11

regular basis, all invoices done

electronically. It is a very small

0:30:110:30:15

problem if there is a will.

Let's

bring in Mairead McGuiness. Owen

0:30:150:30:26

Paterson sounds like he's saying

you're exaggerating the problem is

0:30:260:30:29

here.

0:30:290:30:32

I've listened to it several times

and not heard anything new. He is

0:30:320:30:35

right that where there is a will

there is a way. This is a serious

0:30:350:30:39

matter for my constituency, for the

island of Ireland and Europe. We

0:30:390:30:43

have not found the way. To bring up

separate currencies, OK, it is part

0:30:430:30:48

of the situation, but we don't have

a border in the visible sense. When

0:30:480:30:53

the United Kingdom remains

determined to leave the customs

0:30:530:30:56

union and single market, the milk

that he refers to produced in

0:30:560:31:00

Northern Ireland and processed in

the Republic of Ireland comes from a

0:31:000:31:04

country that is a third country, no

longer a member of the European

0:31:040:31:07

Union. There are many issues about

that. I know the fathers in Northern

0:31:070:31:12

Ireland are deeply concerned about

the consequences for them as daily

0:31:120:31:15

farmers. -- dairy farmers. They are

troubled by his insistence that he

0:31:150:31:21

wants to scrap many of the rules

around the food industry and

0:31:210:31:25

agriculture. He wants to scrap

support for agriculture. Even

0:31:250:31:30

farmers that voted Leave, they are

now quite perplexed about what they

0:31:300:31:33

are hearing from the UK side, not

just around the issue of the border,

0:31:330:31:37

but on the wider issues of trade.

That is where this problem really

0:31:370:31:43

lies, and where we will have great

difficulty. I am more troubled this

0:31:430:31:47

morning, because I read a quote from

Arlene Fox the trade Secretary,

0:31:470:31:51

saying that the border issue and the

Irish issue will not be solved until

0:31:510:31:55

the final stage, until we reach a

decision on trade. I hope the United

0:31:550:32:00

Kingdom is not holding the situation

to ransom in these negotiations. It

0:32:000:32:04

is far too serious and too critical.

Let's go to Owen Paterson.

May I

0:32:040:32:11

finish this point?

We now have a

situation on the island of Ireland

0:32:110:32:15

and Northern Ireland where we have

built piece and we are hoping to

0:32:150:32:18

maintain that. I believe that we

will and we can. Unfortunately,

0:32:180:32:22

there is no assembly, there are

divisions between the communities

0:32:220:32:25

but they are now becoming deeper. We

have to work really hard to avoid

0:32:250:32:30

that. Part of that is to make sure,

as Theresa May said on Friday, she

0:32:300:32:35

wants the situation to remain the

same as it is today, post-Brexit.

0:32:350:32:38

The only way to achieve that is to

stay in the customs union and single

0:32:380:32:43

market. That is the solution.

A lot

for you to pick up on. Let's start

0:32:430:32:48

with the idea that it might be

possible to come up with a final

0:32:480:32:51

solution to the Irish border

question after we have seen the

0:32:510:32:54

shape of a trade deal. EU made it

clear we cannot talk about trade

0:32:540:32:59

until the Irish border has been

settled?

Saw those comments were

0:32:590:33:04

completely ridiculous and they have

been repeated when we have done

0:33:040:33:09

interviews before. -- some of those

comments. The idea that Northern

0:33:090:33:12

Ireland will be taken out of the UK

is absurd. 78 million people voted

0:33:120:33:17

to leave the European Union, they

voted to leave the customs union and

0:33:170:33:21

the single market, and the

jurisdiction of the ECJ. The idea

0:33:210:33:27

that politicians in Dublin can

somehow start to force Northern

0:33:270:33:30

Ireland to stay, against the will of

a significant number of citizens,

0:33:300:33:34

within an arrangement that will not

serve the economic and you're

0:33:340:33:37

politically, it is really very

dangerous. Let's talk about the

0:33:370:33:40

peace process, I can't think of

anything more destabilising... This

0:33:400:33:44

is a really important point. I want

to make this point. It is really

0:33:440:33:50

very irresponsible politicians to

make a statement like that, saying

0:33:500:33:52

they are going to force and

blackmail the UK into getting a

0:33:520:33:57

special status for Northern Ireland

outside the rest of the UK. That is

0:33:570:34:00

a really dangerous thing to do and

they should stop doing it. There are

0:34:000:34:05

perfectly sensible, technical

solutions to the problem of the

0:34:050:34:08

border. We currently have complete

conformity of standards. Products

0:34:080:34:11

going over the border go on a very

regular basis. It is a tiny part of

0:34:110:34:17

trade between the Republic of

Ireland and the UK. It is a really

0:34:170:34:21

tiny part of trade between Northern

Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

0:34:210:34:25

and it is solvable by modern

methods. The idea we will go back to

0:34:250:34:30

old customs, with customs officials

in bridges, sticking a ladle into a

0:34:300:34:36

couple trickle, it is out of date.

Less than 2% of goods are inspected

0:34:360:34:46

physically. This is completely out

of date. -- sticking a ladle into a

0:34:460:34:54

tub of back-to-back.

I am disturbed

by some of those comments, to

0:34:540:35:07

describe that view as ridiculous is

not helpful. To suggest it is

0:35:070:35:11

blackmailing is appalling. The UK,

the Irish at the European Union know

0:35:110:35:15

we have had a difficult history. We

have worked hard politically and

0:35:150:35:21

financially to make sure we move

forward and we have. If the United

0:35:210:35:29

Kingdom does trade agreements with

other partners and goods are flowing

0:35:290:35:33

into Northern Ireland, we have to

watch and know where they are coming

0:35:330:35:36

from. That will affect businesses in

Northern Ireland, as it will affect

0:35:360:35:40

businesses in the European Union. I

dislike this notion, and it is

0:35:400:35:44

happening and happened again in this

studio this morning, that the United

0:35:440:35:48

Kingdom and Owen Paterson would say

if borders go up, it is our fault.

0:35:480:35:52

Let's be frank, because we should

be, we are neighbours and good

0:35:520:35:55

friends. The European Union, 28

today, we respect the democratic

0:35:550:36:02

decision of the United Kingdom to

leave, but I would ask you to

0:36:020:36:05

reflect on the reality of Northern

Ireland, where people voted to stay

0:36:050:36:09

because they knew the consequences

for them. Regrettably, where the

0:36:090:36:12

referendum was taking place, there

was no talk about the consequences

0:36:120:36:15

for Northern Ireland or the island

of Ireland. We are left in a

0:36:150:36:21

situation where, retrospectively, we

are trying to find solutions. If it

0:36:210:36:24

upsets your guest at the studio, I

repeated anyway, we have to be frank

0:36:240:36:28

with one another. The way to stay

the same on the island of Ireland,

0:36:280:36:32

as it is today, post-Brexit, is for

at least the United Kingdom to take

0:36:320:36:37

the red off the table, to stay the

customs union and single market

0:36:370:36:40

gives us what we have today, and

invisible border, seamless trade,

0:36:400:36:45

and also building at helping to keep

those relationships. The good

0:36:450:36:51

relationship was helped in no small

part because Ireland, the United

0:36:510:36:55

Kingdom and 26 other countries can

sit around a table. They sit in the

0:36:550:37:00

European Parliament, in the council,

and we do business because we got to

0:37:000:37:03

know each other. We have formal and

informal talks and relationships. We

0:37:030:37:08

should really strive to continue

that. It is in the interests of the

0:37:080:37:11

people we spoke to on the border,

those that wanted the United Kingdom

0:37:110:37:15

to stay, and those that might have

had a different view.

Owen Paterson,

0:37:150:37:19

can you see that this can be

resolved before we know the shape of

0:37:190:37:28

a final trade deal? The idea that

the Irish question needs to be

0:37:280:37:31

settled before we move on to talking

about future trading or relations?

0:37:310:37:34

Is that possible?

As somebody who

spent time a shadow and Secretary of

0:37:340:37:38

State, going very regularly to

Dublin, getting the main political

0:37:380:37:45

parties in on that, I appreciate the

good level of relations between the

0:37:450:37:49

UK and the Republic of Ireland, the

enormous benefits to so many people.

0:37:490:37:53

Therefore, I am absolutely dismayed

at the talk this morning, which is

0:37:530:37:58

completely unrealistic, expecting

Northern Ireland to be given a

0:37:580:38:00

separate status, outside,

effectively, the United Kingdom. 87%

0:38:000:38:05

of sales, purely on economics, are

within the UK. Henri

0:38:050:38:11

-- on economic grounds, it is crazy.

It is very dangerous. There was a

0:38:120:38:16

referendum at the time of the

Belfast agreement. There was

0:38:160:38:20

overwhelming support for it to stay

in the UK. All of the polls show

0:38:200:38:25

that Northern Ireland will stay very

firmly within the UK.

Very quickly,

0:38:250:38:31

then, one last point?

I hate to say,

but Owen may not be listening to

0:38:310:38:39

what I said. I said the United

Kingdom would stay in the customs

0:38:390:38:43

union and single market, I did not

say Northern Ireland should separate

0:38:430:38:46

and stay in, although that is a

potential solution, it is not the

0:38:460:38:51

one I said this morning. Please

respond to what I have said.

We

0:38:510:38:55

don't have time to respond to any of

that. It is an issue we will return

0:38:550:38:59

to. Thank you very much.

0:38:590:39:03

It's coming up to 11.40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:39:030:39:07

Coming up on the programme, Ellie's

taken the Moodbox to Yorkshire

0:39:070:39:09

A big event that will make us feel

better off. But enough about Black

0:39:130:39:17

Friday, we also have the Budget this

week. We are asking shoppers in

0:39:170:39:21

Leeds what matters most to them.

0:39:210:39:23

First though, it's time for

the Sunday Politics where you are.

0:39:230:39:24

Hello and welcome to

the London part of the show.

0:39:370:39:40

I'm Jo Coburn.

0:39:400:39:41

Joining me for the duration,

Theresa Villiers, Conservative MP

0:39:410:39:43

for Chipping Barnet and a leading

Brexiteer, and Wes Streeting,

0:39:430:39:45

Labour MP for Ilford North,

a Remainer who sits

0:39:450:39:47

on the Treasury Select Committee.

0:39:470:39:50

Welcome to you both.

0:39:500:39:53

I want to start with

the Grenfell Tower fire

0:39:530:39:56

and the announcement

in the Budget that the Government

0:39:560:39:59

is pledging more money to help

with the fallout from the disaster.

0:39:590:40:01

Jerry Thomas reports.

0:40:010:40:04

In Wednesday's Budget,

the Chancellor Philip Hammond

0:40:040:40:05

announced more help

for the survivors of the fire

0:40:050:40:08

that claimed 71 lives

and made hundreds homeless.

0:40:080:40:13

Today I can announce we will provide

Kensington and Chelsea Council

0:40:130:40:16

with a further £28 million

for mental health and counselling

0:40:160:40:18

services, regeneration support

for the surrounding areas,

0:40:180:40:20

and to provide a new community space

for local residents.

0:40:200:40:25

I spent weeks speaking to ministers

and I'm absolutely delighted that

0:40:250:40:28

they've agreed to give us

£28 million today.

0:40:280:40:37

Following the Grenfell Tower

disaster, fire safety flaws

0:40:370:40:39

were discovered in hundreds

of high-rise blocks

0:40:390:40:41

around the country.

0:40:410:40:44

Mr Hammond has called on local

authorities to speed up efforts

0:40:440:40:46

to ensure all high-rise towers

are safe, adding any local

0:40:460:40:49

authorities which needed financial

help to do so should go directly

0:40:490:40:51

to central government.

0:40:510:40:59

If any local authority cannot

access funding to pay

0:40:590:41:01

for essential fire safety work,

they should contact us immediately.

0:41:010:41:04

However, BBC London has discovered

that about half of London's boroughs

0:41:040:41:07

had asked for financial

help to the tune of £400 million.

0:41:070:41:10

So far, they haven't

received a penny.

0:41:100:41:15

We have already approached

the Government on a number

0:41:150:41:18

of occasions, asked for the money

we desperately need here

0:41:180:41:20

in Croydon to fit sprinklers,

and been turned down.

0:41:200:41:25

It's promises of jam tomorrow.

0:41:250:41:26

We have over 130 blocks over seven

floors high and if we wanted to put

0:41:260:41:29

sprinklers in them for example,

we would need many millions

0:41:290:41:32

of pounds from the Government

and there's no sign

0:41:320:41:34

whatsoever of that.

0:41:340:41:37

The Government have said

they will not allow what they call

0:41:370:41:40

financial restraints to get

in the way of any essential

0:41:400:41:42

fire safety works.

0:41:420:41:46

Jerry Thomas reporting there.

0:41:460:41:51

Wes Streeting, do you welcome

the pledge of £28 million?

0:41:510:41:53

It's a significant amount of money

for Grenfell fire victims.

0:41:530:41:55

Of course, I mean when dealing

with a major disaster like this,

0:41:550:41:58

Kensington and Chelsea Council

clearly need support.

0:41:580:42:00

I think it's one of the parts

of the Budget speech I cheered

0:42:000:42:03

actually because I think it's right

that particularly mental health

0:42:030:42:05

support is in place.

0:42:050:42:07

What does concern me however

is there are still over 100 Grenfell

0:42:070:42:10

families still living in hotels

or temporary accommodation

0:42:100:42:12

and I think the least we can do

is give them a bit of longer-term

0:42:120:42:15

security and a home

they can call their own.

0:42:150:42:18

So I hope we will see

0:42:180:42:19

more urgent action on that

funds from government.

0:42:190:42:23

As you heard in the film

from Alison Butler and John Biggs,

0:42:230:42:25

I think lots of local authorities

across London which do have tower

0:42:250:42:28

blocks and want to see those tower

blocks retrofitted with sprinklers

0:42:280:42:31

to give residents the confidence

that if a similar disaster erupted

0:42:310:42:34

there would be better response.

0:42:340:42:43

I'm afraid that's where

the gulf between rhetoric

0:42:430:42:45

and reality kicks in.

0:42:450:42:46

Let's start with the money

going to Kensington and Chelsea.

0:42:460:42:49

Is that the right place

to put that money?

0:42:490:42:51

Should it be run by central

government rather than

0:42:510:42:53

the council directly?

0:42:530:42:55

The Government and Kensington

and Chelsea Council are working very

0:42:550:42:57

closely together to support

the families and deal with the

0:42:570:43:00

terrible aftermath of this tragedy.

0:43:000:43:01

So I think the academic point

about whether technically the money

0:43:010:43:04

is controlled by the Council

or central government

0:43:040:43:06

is they need to work together

to solve the problem.

0:43:060:43:10

It's not so much an academic point.

0:43:100:43:12

There has been criticism that

actually the council hasn't dealt

0:43:120:43:14

with it successfully and effectively

0:43:140:43:15

until now, so giving them

a large pot of money,

0:43:150:43:18

are they the right people -

not from a practical point of view -

0:43:180:43:21

but whether they can actually

do the job.

0:43:210:43:28

It's clear that Kensington

and Chelsea need help

0:43:280:43:30

from central government to deal

with the situation.

0:43:300:43:32

They have been getting it

from an early stage,

0:43:320:43:34

I'm sure that will continue.

0:43:340:43:35

Do you agree?

0:43:350:43:36

Yes, I mean I agree with Theresa.

0:43:360:43:38

Who is controlling the budget

is less important than

0:43:380:43:40

the outcomes for residents.

0:43:400:43:44

So you think they're up to the job,

Kensington and Chelsea?

0:43:440:43:46

Well, look, there are

clearly problems with

0:43:460:43:48

the previous leadership

0:43:480:43:49

of the council and it was right

that the leadership

0:43:490:43:51

of the council resigned.

0:43:510:43:53

In terms of the new leadership

of the council, I don't

0:43:530:43:55

feel close enough.

0:43:550:43:56

And tempting though

it is to bash a Tory council

0:43:560:43:59

because they are Tories,

I think they've got enough

0:43:590:44:01

on their plate and I certainly don't

envy the position the leader

0:44:010:44:04

of the Royal Borough of Kensington

and Chelsea finds herself in,

0:44:040:44:06

having to deal with the aftermath

of this disaster.

0:44:060:44:08

I think it's important we give them

the support across the political

0:44:080:44:11

spectrum to do the job well.

0:44:110:44:14

So was it helpful of your Labour

colleague, Emma Dent Coad,

0:44:140:44:17

as the local MP there,

to say she didn't really

0:44:170:44:19

trust the council to

spend the money wisely?

0:44:190:44:23

Well, Emma has been a lot closer

to the whole disaster than I have

0:44:230:44:26

and certainly for a new MP to be

confronted with this disaster

0:44:260:44:29

in the very first few weeks

in office is difficult,

0:44:290:44:31

but I think the jury is still out

on the new leadership

0:44:310:44:34

of Kensington and Chelsea.

0:44:340:44:42

I think they've got the chance

to prove themselves and the most

0:44:420:44:45

important thing is the residents

and making sure they get

0:44:450:44:47

the support they need.

0:44:470:44:48

What's the point, Theresa Villiers,

of the Chancellor saying,

0:44:480:44:50

come to us, come to me,

councils out there,

0:44:500:44:52

if you need funding or access

0:44:520:44:54

to funds in order to retrofit

sprinklers or for any fire safety,

0:44:540:44:56

things you need to do,

when half of London's boroughs say

0:44:560:44:59

they have asked for that money

and haven't got it?

0:44:590:45:02

Well, the Chancellor

repeated his statement that he's

0:45:020:45:03

made a number of times that councils

should come to central government

0:45:030:45:06

if they need this funding.

0:45:060:45:08

Now, I don't know the history

of the individual boroughs.

0:45:080:45:10

If they are saying they're not

getting all of their funding...

0:45:100:45:13

Or any of it, they say

the Government has yet

0:45:130:45:15

to agree to any support.

0:45:150:45:16

I would suggest they go back

to Sajid Javid of the DCLG

0:45:160:45:19

and have a further discussion.

0:45:190:45:23

There are divided views

about sprinklers, whether they are

0:45:230:45:25

the right way forward.

0:45:250:45:26

There will obviously need to be

a debate about what are

0:45:260:45:29

the best safety measures.

0:45:290:45:30

In part, we won't know that

for certain until the public inquiry

0:45:300:45:33

reports, but it is very important

for local councils if they are

0:45:330:45:35

worried about these issues

to continue the dialogue

0:45:350:45:37

with central government so they can

get the funding they need.

0:45:370:45:40

Do you think Philip Hammond should

guarantee that money for fire safety

0:45:400:45:43

for councils who ask for it?

0:45:430:45:44

He has sort of more or less done

that, but obviously won't give

0:45:440:45:47

an individual blank cheque

to each council.

0:45:470:45:49

They need to check these

are the right measures

0:45:490:45:51

and that they can be funded.

0:45:510:45:53

Can he be trusted to do that?

0:45:530:45:54

Well look, there's a gap

between rhetoric and reality.

0:45:540:45:58

My experience of a deputy leader

of a London borough previously

0:45:580:46:00

before being elected to Parliament

is that local authorities are far

0:46:000:46:03

better at spending their money

than central government,

0:46:030:46:05

and I think the Chancellor has got

to be a bit clearer

0:46:050:46:08

about what is up for grabs

0:46:080:46:09

and genuinely meeting the needs

of London boroughs.

0:46:090:46:15

Right, and we will obviously

closely follow the story.

0:46:150:46:17

Now, of all the areas the Chancellor

raised in his Budget,

0:46:170:46:19

the one issue that was most

anticipated in London was housing.

0:46:190:46:22

Tanjil Rashid has been

gauging the reaction

0:46:220:46:23

from the housing sector.

0:46:230:46:24

So today, we set out

an ambitious plan to tackle

0:46:240:46:27

the housing challenge.

0:46:270:46:31

A challenge that resonated

especially at this housing industry

0:46:310:46:33

event on Budget afternoon.

0:46:330:46:37

Councils at the sharp end

of London's housing shortage will,

0:46:370:46:39

following this week's Budget,

be able to borrow more to build

0:46:390:46:42

houses, but they say it's not

the freedom to borrow that

0:46:420:46:44

they'd asked for.

0:46:440:46:55

It's this borrowing cap that revives

really an artificial ceiling

0:46:580:47:01

on what we can build.

0:47:010:47:05

We wanted to see that lifted

for councils across London

0:47:050:47:08

and instead what we've heard

is there's £1 billion, it's

0:47:080:47:10

£1 billion for the whole of England,

councils will have to bid in.

0:47:100:47:13

It already sounds like a scheme

that is mired in bureaucracy

0:47:130:47:16

but doesn't have the sorts of cash

that is required.

0:47:160:47:18

The Government has scrapped stamp

duty for first time buyers

0:47:180:47:20

of houses under £300,000,

and for the first 300,000 on a house

0:47:200:47:23

costing up to half a million,

saving on average £5,000 in London.

0:47:230:47:29

It's a policy targeting young

people, but there are advocates

0:47:290:47:31

of generation rent who say it may

make things worse.

0:47:310:47:34

That might sound like a really great

offer for my generation of people

0:47:340:47:37

looking to get on the property

ladder, but actually if you look

0:47:370:47:40

at the Independent Office

for Budget Responsibility's

0:47:400:47:41

own figures, all they really say

is that will push up house prices.

0:47:410:47:45

In fact the saving that first time

buyers might make from not having

0:47:450:47:48

stamp duty will be absorbed

by house prices.

0:47:480:47:50

There are 270,000 sites in London

that have planning permission

0:47:500:47:56

but remain undeveloped.

0:47:560:47:58

There will now be a review into why

that's the case but there are doubts

0:47:580:48:01

over whether the Chancellor has

dealt with the real issue.

0:48:010:48:05

He has stopped short in terms

of looking at land in London

0:48:050:48:09

and particularly saying whether 24%,

nearly a quarter of land in London

0:48:090:48:14

being green belt, is the right use

of that land within the remit

0:48:140:48:17

of the Greater London area.

0:48:170:48:19

The Government had raised

expectations that this would be

0:48:190:48:21

a radical house-building Budget

and they have for example announced

0:48:210:48:24

£44 billion' worth of capital

investment in housing.

0:48:240:48:29

Nevertheless, the word

from the great and the good

0:48:290:48:31

of the housing sector

0:48:310:48:32

gathered here is that it wasn't

quite the slam dunk the Chancellor

0:48:320:48:35

had been hoping for.

0:48:350:48:36

Theresa Villiers, what was radical

about announcing £44 billion

0:48:370:48:41

for a housing package of which only

£15 billion was actually new money?

0:48:410:48:45

Well, it is radical,

that's a significant amount of money

0:48:450:48:47

and the Chancellor is determined

to provide the infrastructure

0:48:470:48:49

we need to enable housing

developments to go ahead.

0:48:490:48:55

I know in many places the anxiety

about getting planning permission

0:48:550:48:58

for new homes is whether the local

infrastructure can cope.

0:48:580:49:02

Well, with these additional

resources, it's going to be much

0:49:020:49:04

easier to get those planning

permissions because there

0:49:040:49:06

can be more confidence

that the infrastructure locally

0:49:060:49:08

is able to support it.

0:49:080:49:16

Right, with the 300,000 homes,

that's the pledge being

0:49:160:49:18

built by the mid 2020s.

0:49:180:49:20

There is a chronic

housing shortage now.

0:49:200:49:21

We've built around a million

new homes since 2010.

0:49:210:49:23

You've built 217,000

new homes this year,

0:49:230:49:26

that's still below the target

of 250,000 and that's

0:49:260:49:28

from a very low bar.

0:49:280:49:32

The Government is very clear

it needs to do more,

0:49:320:49:35

it needs to do better,

that's why we are having this review

0:49:350:49:38

about why planning permissions

are not being built,

0:49:380:49:40

but the solution is not to build

on the green belt.

0:49:400:49:42

Why not?

0:49:420:49:43

Because if we build on the green

belt, we will end up with urban

0:49:430:49:48

sprawl all the way to Birmingham.

0:49:480:49:50

That green belt is vital

to keep London breathing,

0:49:500:49:51

to protect London's environment.

0:49:510:49:53

Philip Hammond was reported

to want to announce that there

0:49:530:49:55

should be some building on the green

belt but Tory MPs have

0:49:550:49:58

stopped him doing that.

0:49:580:49:59

Isn't that the only way to radically

up the number of homes that

0:49:590:50:04

are built, by building

on the green belt?

0:50:040:50:06

Not at all.

0:50:060:50:10

There are plenty of brownfield sites

in the city that we can build on.

0:50:100:50:13

Do you agree?

0:50:130:50:14

Was it to protect the green

belt, Wes Streeting?

0:50:140:50:16

Well, I certainly support

the brownfield first policy.

0:50:160:50:18

Obviously there is scope to look

at reclassifying and redesignating

0:50:180:50:20

greenbelt but when you look

at the available urban land

0:50:200:50:23

available in London,

there is still space to build

0:50:230:50:25

significant numbers of new homes

but this is a supply and demand

0:50:250:50:28

issue, it's as simple as that.

0:50:280:50:31

Until we see significant investment

in supply of new homes

0:50:310:50:33

available to rent or buy,

we are not going to solve

0:50:330:50:36

London's housing crisis.

0:50:360:50:38

What the Chancellor announced this

week didn't come close to meeting

0:50:380:50:41

London's housing needs soon enough.

0:50:410:50:42

Did you support the abolition

of stamp duty for most

0:50:420:50:44

first time buyers?

0:50:440:50:46

In isolation, as we heard

in the package there,

0:50:460:50:48

all that's going to do is drive up

house prices further and offset any

0:50:480:50:51

benefit to first time buyers.

0:50:510:50:53

Although something very similar

was in the Labour Party manifesto.

0:50:530:50:56

And I was just going to come

onto our manifesto.

0:50:560:50:58

The key difference in Labour's

manifesto is that that policy

0:50:580:51:03

would work alongside

an unprecedented period of new home

0:51:030:51:08

construction outside of a post-war

period and unless you've got that

0:51:080:51:12

level of investment,

we need 66,000 homes

0:51:120:51:14

a year at least to meet

London's housing needs.

0:51:140:51:16

That would require 2.7 billion.

0:51:160:51:17

Londoners were short-changed

with just 0.5 billion

0:51:170:51:19

for new homes in this Budget.

0:51:190:51:20

So for the Budget that was meant

to be the housing Budget,

0:51:200:51:23

the big breakthrough,

it was a bit of a damp squib really.

0:51:230:51:26

What do you say about the impartial

Office for Budget Responsibility

0:51:260:51:30

setting out that actually all that

stamp duty abolition will do is push

0:51:300:51:33

up prices and actually won't help

anything like the numbers of people

0:51:330:51:36

the Chancellor said?

0:51:360:51:37

Well, they have their

views obviously.

0:51:370:51:39

It might have some impact on house

prices but it still means that first

0:51:390:51:42

time buyers have less cash to find

to get on the housing

0:51:420:51:45

ladder so it will help...

0:51:450:51:46

But the prices will be higher.

0:51:460:51:48

It will be helpful

but we acknowledge it's

0:51:480:51:49

not the whole answer.

0:51:490:51:51

That's why the Budget also contained

an increase in investment

0:51:510:51:53

in the infrastructure we need

to build more homes.

0:51:530:51:57

Should councils be able

to borrow large amounts

0:51:570:51:59

of money to build homes?

0:51:590:52:01

Councils already have

borrowing powers.

0:52:010:52:05

They have some and they are limited.

0:52:050:52:09

We do need to maintain caution

because ultimately those monies

0:52:090:52:11

have to be paid back,

but I know it's important to keep

0:52:110:52:14

these things under review,

and housing associations

0:52:140:52:16

are obviously getting more

opportunities to borrow

0:52:160:52:20

now than in the past

because of the reclassification

0:52:200:52:26

of their debt, so things

are changing and if changes

0:52:260:52:29

are needed in the future in relation

to local government,

0:52:290:52:31

I'm sure the Chancellor

will look at that.

0:52:310:52:33

We have to leave it there.

0:52:330:52:34

This week, the Office

of National Statistics published

0:52:340:52:36

a report that found that nationally

over 1 million domestic

0:52:360:52:39

abuse-related incidents

were reported to police in the year

0:52:390:52:41

ending March 2017.

0:52:410:52:43

And domestic abuse in London,

in particular, is on the rise,

0:52:430:52:45

accounting for one in ten reported

offences in the capital.

0:52:450:52:50

Now a cross-party group

from the London Assembly has called

0:52:500:52:53

on the government to create

a register identifying people

0:52:530:52:55

convicted of domestic abuse, similar

to the sex offenders register.

0:52:550:53:00

But is this the most effective way

to protect potential victims?

0:53:000:53:05

Bhavani Vadde reports, and I should

warn you that her film does contain

0:53:050:53:08

some distressing images.

0:53:080:53:12

Zoe Dronfield's story is one

of remarkable survival.

0:53:120:53:16

She suffered a brutal eight-hour

attack by her ex-boyfriend,

0:53:160:53:18

who had been stalking

and harassing her.

0:53:180:53:23

I just remember thuds

raining down on my head.

0:53:230:53:26

I had 15 separate injuries

from that attack.

0:53:260:53:30

It was a sustained attack with

knives involved, a meat cleaver.

0:53:300:53:33

I knew I had to get out of there,

I knew he was going to kill me.

0:53:330:53:37

After he was convicted,

she learnt that 13 other women had

0:53:370:53:40

also been his victims.

0:53:400:53:42

Since then, she's campaigned

for serial domestic violence abusers

0:53:420:53:44

and stalkers to be put

on a register.

0:53:440:53:51

He was known to the police.

0:53:510:53:53

It was the same force

for all of those victims

0:53:530:53:55

and they never picked up this

pattern and escalation.

0:53:550:53:57

This kind of behaviour has been

going on and it's been allowed

0:53:570:54:00

to escalate to almost murder.

0:54:000:54:05

If he was on a register,

that would mean that he would be

0:54:050:54:08

tracked and monitored.

0:54:080:54:09

Zoe's is not an isolated incident.

0:54:090:54:12

It's been a year since five-year-old

Alex Malcolm was beaten to death

0:54:120:54:15

in a park in Catford.

0:54:150:54:16

His killer, Marvyn Iheanacho,

was a partner of Alex's mother

0:54:160:54:19

who had no knowledge

of his history of violence.

0:54:190:54:26

It was that particularly tragic case

that prompted the London Assembly

0:54:260:54:29

to start a cross-party campaign

for a register of those convicted

0:54:290:54:31

of domestic abuse offences,

similar to the one used

0:54:310:54:34

for sexual offenders.

0:54:340:54:39

Those guilty of certain sexual

offences must keep the police

0:54:390:54:42

updated on their personal details,

including their address.

0:54:420:54:49

Assembly members are calling

on the Government to include

0:54:490:54:51

an equivalent system

in the forthcoming domestic

0:54:510:54:53

violence and abuse bill,

which is expected this

0:54:530:54:54

Parliamentary session.

0:54:540:54:57

Domestic violence and abuse

is increasing, so we need something

0:54:570:55:00

extra to give some added strength

to help police manage offenders

0:55:000:55:04

but also manage the risk,

because I think we could have

0:55:040:55:10

prevented that tragic murder

of that five-year-old,

0:55:100:55:12

and I think we can prevent repeat

abuse, violence and other

0:55:120:55:15

against women in the future

by having such a list.

0:55:150:55:17

Domestic abuse accounts for around

one in ten of all recorded

0:55:170:55:20

differences in London.

0:55:200:55:21

There's been a 15%

increase in the number

0:55:210:55:23

of victims in three years.

0:55:230:55:29

Four out of ten survivors are repeat

victims, but despite these rising

0:55:290:55:34

numbers there's been a 38% fall

in spending by London councils

0:55:340:55:43

on services designed to help those

who've suffered domestic violence.

0:55:430:55:45

And sufficient resources will be

key to a domestic abuse

0:55:450:55:48

register being effective,

according to one charity

0:55:480:55:49

working in the sector.

0:55:490:55:53

A register needs to be backed up

with a range of services that can

0:55:530:55:57

work directly with domestic abuse

perpetrators, and both

0:55:570:55:58

manage their behaviour

and control their behaviour and help

0:55:580:56:01

them change, so that's a mixture

of existing sanctions being used

0:56:010:56:05

properly and enforced consistently,

and then a range of new services

0:56:050:56:10

that are properly resourced

that help people change.

0:56:100:56:17

There is clearly a need

for more resources.

0:56:170:56:24

We have less than 1% of perpetrators

today who get put on any kind

0:56:240:56:28

of programme or anything that

helps them change.

0:56:280:56:29

The Home Office told us

that the publication of a domestic

0:56:290:56:32

violence and abuse bill will aim

to break the cycle of harm.

0:56:320:56:35

Measures planned for the bill

include a definition

0:56:350:56:37

of domestic abuse in law

and a new domestic abuse commission.

0:56:370:56:40

But Zoe says she will continue

to lobby for a domestic abuse

0:56:400:56:43

register to prevent anyone else

going through the same

0:56:430:56:46

ordeal as her.

0:56:460:56:49

Joining me now,

Sophie Walker, leader

0:56:490:56:51

of the Women's Equality Party.

0:56:510:56:53

Welcome to the programme.

0:56:530:56:55

The statistics were quite shocking

actually, the numbers

0:56:550:56:57

of domestic violence.

0:56:570:56:59

Would a register, though,

be the best way to protect victims

0:56:590:57:01

and potential victims?

0:57:010:57:04

Well, I'm very glad you asked that

because I think that too often

0:57:040:57:09

when we talk about violence

against women and girls,

0:57:090:57:11

we talk about the details.

0:57:110:57:17

A register would certainly, I think,

go some way potentially

0:57:170:57:21

towards helping victims

and potential victims

0:57:210:57:25

if it was constructed with the help

of victims in a way that is fully

0:57:250:57:30

funded, in a way that

incorporates police training.

0:57:300:57:34

But actually, when we talk

about violence against women

0:57:340:57:38

and girls, we talk too much

about policing it, we talk too

0:57:380:57:40

much about it as though

it is something we have to manage,

0:57:400:57:44

and we do not talk about what causes

it and how we stop it.

0:57:440:57:49

And what causes it is a fundamental

imbalance of power between men

0:57:490:57:54

and women, which comes

about because women earn less,

0:57:540:57:59

women have less opportunity

to participate in the economy.

0:57:590:58:02

It's interesting we have just been

talking about the Budget.

0:58:020:58:05

Year after year after year,

our Chancellor, from whichever

0:58:050:58:09

party, investing in physical

infrastructure rather

0:58:090:58:12

than the social infrastructure that

would revolutionise women's lives.

0:58:120:58:15

Let's pick up first

of all on the register.

0:58:150:58:18

Theresa Villiers, you have been

written to, presumably,

0:58:180:58:20

by the London Assembly.

0:58:200:58:21

They have written

to all MPs in London.

0:58:210:58:23

Do you back their cross-party

campaign for a register?

0:58:230:58:25

I'm open-minded

on this at the moment.

0:58:250:58:27

I think there is quite

a strong case for it.

0:58:270:58:30

We need to think it through.

0:58:300:58:32

I think what would make

sense is the Government

0:58:320:58:35

is about to consult

on its legislation on domestic

0:58:350:58:37

violence and abuse...

0:58:370:58:39

Is this going to be part of it?

0:58:390:58:47

I think it's worth putting

a question on this in that

0:58:470:58:50

consultation because we do need

to make sure we get this right.

0:58:500:58:53

What I would agree on,

if we do go ahead with this,

0:58:530:58:56

it is obviously only one part

of an effective strategy

0:58:560:58:58

to tackle this.

0:58:580:58:59

Right, but you haven't made

up your mind, you haven't signed

0:58:590:59:02

up to this campaign?

0:59:020:59:03

Not 100%.

0:59:030:59:04

I think we need to investigate it

thoroughly but there

0:59:040:59:06

is quite a credible case

for going ahead with this.

0:59:060:59:09

Do you agree with Sophie Walker

that it is gender inequality

0:59:090:59:11

that is the cause, in the main part,

of domestic abuse?

0:59:110:59:14

It is a very significant contributor

to the fact of this problem, yes.

0:59:140:59:17

Right, what are your objections to -

if you have reservations,

0:59:170:59:20

what are your reservations

about not signing up?

0:59:200:59:23

I think we need to first of all work

out the interaction with other

0:59:230:59:26

databases in particular.

0:59:260:59:29

We wouldn't want confusion

or duplication of databases

0:59:290:59:32

to cause complication

and undermine our ability to keep

0:59:320:59:34

track of these offenders.

0:59:340:59:36

That would be the main

point of caution.

0:59:360:59:39

Are you going to sign up to it?

0:59:390:59:40

I do support the register actually.

0:59:400:59:44

I think it would be a welcome

step forward and a tool

0:59:440:59:47

for combating domestic abuse,

but I agree with Sophie,

0:59:470:59:52

there are a far wider range

of issues both about structural

0:59:520:59:54

inequality facing women

in our society but also on domestic

0:59:540:59:57

abuse and domestic

0:59:570:59:58

violence specifically,

we heard in the film that local

0:59:581:00:00

government has been clobbered

by cuts and that means services

1:00:001:00:05

available to support victims

of domestic abuse have been up

1:00:051:00:08

for the chop alongside other

critical services,

1:00:081:00:14

and without falling into the trap

that Sophie identified earlier

1:00:141:00:16

of just talking about the policing

of this, you know, the fact

1:00:161:00:21

is the Met have lost £600 million

since 2010, another 400 million set

1:00:211:00:24

to follow and the policing

of domestic violence is an important

1:00:241:00:26

component of this.

1:00:261:00:28

As with other forms of serious

crime facing Londoners,

1:00:281:00:31

one in ten crimes in London

are domestic abuse, our ability

1:00:311:00:35

to effectively deal with this crime

is limited if we don't have

1:00:351:00:38

sufficient police resources.

1:00:381:00:39

Do you accept that point?

1:00:391:00:41

What I would like us

to be talking about,

1:00:411:00:43

if we are going to talk

about the details, is funding

1:00:431:00:46

because the commissioning model

is absolutely broken.

1:00:461:00:48

These services are not...

1:00:481:00:50

We need services not just

to support women but also

1:00:501:00:52

to advocate for women.

1:00:521:01:00

What we are losing are

the specialist services

1:01:001:01:01

particularly for black,

1:01:011:01:03

Asian, ethnic minority women,

for women with disabilities,

1:01:031:01:05

because the competitive tendering

process knocks them out.

1:01:051:01:07

So you have to be big, you have

to be able to offer a cheaper model,

1:01:071:01:11

those are often then generic models.

1:01:111:01:13

They are knocking out

the specialist services.

1:01:131:01:18

In Haringey alone, they've lost 14

places, three refuges have

1:01:181:01:21

closed one of which is...

1:01:211:01:22

I will put that to Theresa Villiers

in a minute, but what about men?

1:01:221:01:25

Men too also suffer from domestic

abuse and then the gender inequality

1:01:251:01:28

arguments you put forward doesn't

quite cover that's because more

1:01:281:01:31

reporting has meant more

men coming forward too.

1:01:311:01:33

Do you accept that?

1:01:331:01:35

Actually it really does cover it

because it's about power

1:01:351:01:37

and because the vast...

1:01:371:01:38

So two things, if I

may, to answer that.

1:01:381:01:44

We haven't got long.

1:01:441:01:46

The vast majority of people

who experienced domestic

1:01:461:01:47

violence are women.

1:01:471:01:49

The vast majority of men

who experience domestic violence -

1:01:491:01:51

or a significant proportion -

are in gay relationships.

1:01:511:01:54

There is a significant proportion

of men who experienced domestic

1:01:541:01:57

violence as a result of power

imbalance, which comes back

1:01:571:01:59

to a general inequality of power.

1:01:591:02:06

Very briefly in the closing seconds,

do you accept that those cuts have

1:02:061:02:09

damaged the ability to deal

with domestic abuse?

1:02:091:02:11

The Government has been

doing its very best to protect

1:02:111:02:14

support services in this area.

1:02:141:02:15

The Mayor of London is sitting

on about half a billion of reserves.

1:02:151:02:19

He should be spending some

of it on this priority.

1:02:191:02:21

That's all we have time for.

1:02:211:02:23

My thanks to all the guests today

and, with that, it's back to Sarah.

1:02:231:02:29

Welcome back.

1:02:321:02:34

Now, they play big in Westminster -

but does the rest of the country

1:02:341:02:38

notice big set-piece political

moments like this week's Budget?

1:02:381:02:40

Ellie took our not-so-scientific

barometer of public opinion,

1:02:401:02:42

the Moodbox, to Yorkshire.

1:02:421:02:44

Two things happened this week

to make us think about spending

1:02:471:02:49

and feel like we've got more pounds

in our pockets.

1:02:491:02:52

But which was more important?

1:02:521:02:57

That's a question we're asking

shoppers here in Leeds today.

1:02:571:02:59

What matters more?

1:02:591:03:00

Is it Black Friday or the Budget?

1:03:001:03:02

Black Friday, because

you're out there, you're

1:03:051:03:07

going to get a bargain.

1:03:071:03:08

It's a nice build-up

towards Christmas and the Budget,

1:03:081:03:10

they take away from you.

1:03:101:03:12

This is a more fun day than watching

Philip Hammond doing the Budget?

1:03:121:03:15

Definitely!

1:03:151:03:18

Is not going to spoil our day today.

1:03:181:03:19

# Cos we are living

in a material world

1:03:191:03:22

# And I am a material girl...

1:03:221:03:25

The Budget matters for first-time

buyers, with the stamp duty.

1:03:251:03:27

My daughter is buying.

1:03:271:03:28

Do you think Black Friday

would put more money

1:03:281:03:33

than the Chancellor?

1:03:331:03:35

Probably.

1:03:351:03:37

Probably.

1:03:371:03:38

I suppose it affects everyone,

it's more important.

1:03:381:03:40

And Black Friday is just

quite commercialised.

1:03:401:03:41

I suppose I'm here shopping!

1:03:411:03:43

The Budget is more important, think.

1:03:431:03:45

If they get the Budget wrong,

Black Friday doesn't mean anything.

1:03:451:03:49

Did they get the Budget wrong?

1:03:491:03:51

I think they get it

wrong every year!

1:03:511:03:52

What matters more to you,

the Budget or Black Friday?

1:03:521:03:55

Black Friday!

1:03:551:03:56

Because it's cheaper,

and I got my coat.

1:03:561:03:58

Did you look at what

was in the Budget?

1:03:581:04:00

No!

1:04:001:04:01

# Only boys that save their pennies

1:04:011:04:02

# Make my rainy day

1:04:021:04:06

# Cos we are living

in a material world...

1:04:061:04:09

I just think Black

Friday is a big con.

1:04:091:04:11

Do you?

1:04:111:04:12

Yes, I do.

1:04:121:04:13

Do you think the Budget

was a big con?

1:04:131:04:15

Not for me, but for some people.

1:04:151:04:18

# And I am a material girl

1:04:181:04:20

# Living in a material world...

1:04:211:04:24

What puts more money in your pocket,

the Budget or Black Friday?

1:04:251:04:29

Probably Black Friday.

1:04:291:04:30

Yeah!

1:04:301:04:31

Why?

1:04:311:04:32

Yeah, a lot of deals

on Black Friday.

1:04:321:04:35

More money in your pocket but,

actually, overall, the Budget.

1:04:351:04:39

What's more important,

the Budget or Black Friday?

1:04:391:04:41

What's the Budget?

1:04:411:04:42

Well, it was...

1:04:421:04:43

The Chancellor talking about money

and stuff on Wednesday?

1:04:431:04:46

Jesus, I'm really rubbish.

1:04:461:04:49

Definitely the Budget.

1:04:491:04:50

Why's that?

1:04:501:04:51

Because I'm not a big shopper.

1:04:511:04:56

Did you pay any attention to any

of the bargains being offered

1:04:561:04:59

by the Chancellor on Wednesday?

1:04:591:05:00

I saw stamp duty got rid of.

1:05:001:05:02

But that doesn't apply

to us right now.

1:05:021:05:04

And so Black Friday's better?

1:05:041:05:05

Yeah.

1:05:051:05:06

# A material, a material world...

1:05:061:05:08

Well, Black Friday is in

full swing in Leeds.

1:05:081:05:11

But shoppers here have

discounted that and say

1:05:111:05:13

it is Wednesday's Budget that

matters more to them.

1:05:131:05:15

# Living in a material world...

1:05:151:05:17

So that's the view from Leeds

on a Budget that self-consciously

1:05:181:05:21

tried to target younger voters

with the abolition of stamp duty

1:05:211:05:25

for some first time buyers

and extending the young person's

1:05:251:05:28

railcard to rail travellers

up to the age of 30.

1:05:281:05:32

In June's election,

as subsequent polling revealed,

1:05:321:05:35

the Conservatives trailed Labour

by some margin amongst the young.

1:05:351:05:39

I use the word "young",

but even those in their 40s

1:05:391:05:41

were more likely to vote Labour

than Conservative.

1:05:411:05:47

Will the Budget have addressed any

of those problems? Time to turn to

1:05:471:05:52

the panel. Zoe, giveaways to the

under 30s, does it make a difference

1:05:521:05:59

to the Tories?

The Railcard is

actually quite a bad other, it has a

1:05:591:06:03

lot of restrictions. The

shortcomings of the Railcard were

1:06:031:06:06

the least bad thing about the idea.

It is so trivial, such a failure to

1:06:061:06:11

address what young people are saying

about politics. You know, huge debt

1:06:111:06:16

burden is at the end of university,

the impossibility of joining the

1:06:161:06:19

housing market. They are talking

about massive, structural changes to

1:06:191:06:23

the economy that make different to

our lives. The Conservatives come

1:06:231:06:32

back with a Railcard? It is almost

like they are sabotaging themselves.

1:06:321:06:35

It wasn't just stamp duty, also

stimulating the market to make more

1:06:351:06:40

houses available. Would that have

been noticed by younger voters that

1:06:401:06:43

have not been turning to the

Conservatives?

The housing market is

1:06:431:06:47

still massively broken, it is not

entirely clear that the

1:06:471:06:52

Chancellor's, what he called a £44

billion package, experts said 15

1:06:521:06:56

billion or less, if that will fix

the problems and started to bring

1:06:561:06:59

down the price of houses, it is not

clear that the housing package will

1:06:591:07:02

result in a large number of extra

homes being built. Ultimately, in

1:07:021:07:08

the big picture, this was a

forgettable Budget. That is just how

1:07:081:07:11

Theresa May and Philip Hammond

pretty much wanted it. They did not

1:07:111:07:15

want it to be a Budget that went

down in flames because it was

1:07:151:07:18

defeated in the Commons or because

there was a Tory rebellion about

1:07:181:07:21

some nefarious tax raising measure.

What it did, worryingly for the

1:07:211:07:28

Conservatives, is that it accepted

some of Labour's arguments. It said,

1:07:281:07:32

we know that the NHS is a bit

underfunded, so we will give it some

1:07:321:07:37

money. We know there is a problem in

the housing market, we will put some

1:07:371:07:40

money to that. It accepted some of

Labour's solutions. Because tax

1:07:401:07:45

rising it's too hard, we are going

to borrow to get out of the

1:07:451:07:49

political problems, make do and mend

the political problem is that there

1:07:491:07:52

are. Having gone some way towards

acknowledging the problems and

1:07:521:07:55

solutions that Labour offer, they

have a hell of a job trying to

1:07:551:07:58

convince people that going whole hog

that Labour suggests is the wrong

1:07:581:08:06

answer. That is one of the big

problems they face.

I don't think

1:08:061:08:08

the Tories really stand a chance on

this question with younger voters

1:08:081:08:11

until they have a change of

leadership, maybe even a couple of

1:08:111:08:15

leaders before then. They are only

really going to connect to people

1:08:151:08:18

below the age of 45 when those

voters see somebody that does not

1:08:181:08:21

look like the identikit concept of a

Tory. There is a trust deficit. The

1:08:211:08:29

Tories are regarded by younger

voters as the nasty party.

Earlier

1:08:291:08:38

we heard from Mairead McGuinness and

Owen Paterson on the issue of the

1:08:381:08:44

Irish border, as the war of words

continues to ramp up.

I am troubled

1:08:441:08:48

this morning because I have read a

quote from Arlene Fox, the trade

1:08:481:08:52

Secretary, saying that the border

issue will not be solved until the

1:08:521:08:58

final stage, until we reach a

decision on trade. I hope that the

1:08:581:09:02

United Kingdom is not holding the

Irish situation to ransom. It is far

1:09:021:09:06

too serious and far too critical.

It

is very irresponsible politicians to

1:09:061:09:12

make a statement like that, saying

they are going to force and

1:09:121:09:16

blackmailed the UK into having a

special status for Northern Ireland

1:09:161:09:19

outside the rest of the UK. That is

a really dangerous thing to do and

1:09:191:09:23

they should stop doing it. There are

perfectly sensible technical

1:09:231:09:27

solutions to the problem of the

border.

Let's pick up some of that

1:09:271:09:31

with the panel. It was quite

bad-tempered, I have to say, for two

1:09:311:09:37

people that are supposed to be the

best of our lives, the UK and Irish

1:09:371:09:41

government. The row is heating up?

Yes, feelings are running very high.

1:09:411:09:49

There is quite a lot of hype about

this and I don't think it is likely

1:09:491:09:53

that the EU will put Ireland in a

position where Ireland has to Beto

1:09:531:09:57

moving forward on the trade talks.

-- veto. The solution probably lies

1:09:571:10:09

in phase two. What could be

happening, and this is why I think

1:10:091:10:15

December is so critical, if there is

not a breakthrough in December, I

1:10:151:10:22

think the atmosphere changes and

Britain effectively needs to start

1:10:221:10:27

preparing for there being no deal.

It is possible that Emmanuel Macron,

1:10:271:10:35

France, being quite difficult with

the British, could use the Irish

1:10:351:10:38

argument to say that the 27 is not

satisfied with the progress. I think

1:10:381:10:43

at that point, it would be pushing

the British Government too far.

I

1:10:431:10:48

basically agree with Ian. I don't

think we need to put on the table a

1:10:481:10:58

fully fledged plan for how to deal

with the Irish border. I think what

1:10:581:11:01

is going on is a certain amount of

choreography for the Irish in

1:11:011:11:04

Brussels and London, so that the

British make clear we are taking

1:11:041:11:08

this incredibly seriously. There

needs to be warm words, in the sense

1:11:081:11:12

of progress. As Ian says, you can't

have a plan until we know what the

1:11:121:11:16

end state relationship with the

European Union is going to be. It

1:11:161:11:18

does look like there will be a lot

of talk. I am not sure it will

1:11:181:11:24

result in a catastrophic failure in

three weeks' time. However, this

1:11:241:11:27

remains possibly the most pivotal

moment in the talks. Theresa May has

1:11:271:11:34

to have satisfied the European Union

politically. We will knowing about

1:11:341:11:37

two weeks whether she is going to

achieve that or not. If she doesn't,

1:11:371:11:42

I think we're going to be right back

into government in crisis territory.

1:11:421:11:46

She has made wanted to get progress

towards a a fundamental aim of her

1:11:461:11:52

premiership, and I don't think that

if that looks like it is going to

1:11:521:11:58

collapse you will be in a strong

position.

Is that right, absolutely

1:11:581:12:01

crucial that the EU we want to trade

talks?

It is still unclear whether

1:12:011:12:05

the end of the customs union and

single market are a done deal within

1:12:051:12:10

the Conservative Party. Owen

Paterson is talking as though that

1:12:101:12:12

is what people voted for, of course

it isn't.

It is what he believes.

We

1:12:121:12:18

don't know that is the Conservative

position. The idea this is somehow

1:12:181:12:23

Europe or Island's fault for not

moving forward, how can we negotiate

1:12:231:12:26

on something when we don't know what

we want? I get no sense that we know

1:12:261:12:30

what we want.

There is a lot of

blame to go round. The point is that

1:12:301:12:35

the crunch is coming sooner than

people anticipate. If there is an

1:12:351:12:40

progress in December, effectively

there will be no progress until we

1:12:401:12:43

get too -- until we get to March.

Psychologically, it will be a very

1:12:431:12:52

important moment and Britain will

have to be getting ready one way or

1:12:521:12:57

another.

It would increase the

possibility of no deal?

I think

1:12:571:13:02

there would be a huge amount of

opposition to the idea of going into

1:13:021:13:05

a no deal scenario just because the

Conservative Party, which drove

1:13:051:13:08

this, couldn't make its mind up.

One

of the frustrating things about the

1:13:081:13:18

whole debate is that Theresa May

does not take a lead. She is one of

1:13:181:13:22

the most frustrating people to

watch, because she always reacts to

1:13:221:13:25

everybody else.

Thank you very much.

1:13:251:13:29

That's all for today.

1:13:291:13:30

Thanks to all my guests.

1:13:301:13:32

Join me again next Sunday

at 11am here on BBC One.

1:13:321:13:34

Until then, bye-bye.

1:13:341:13:35

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