08/12/2013 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria

The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%

pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

Complete denial about the central Should this man get a pay rise?

facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed Balls? He was certainly working hard

facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed to be heard last Thursday. We will

be reviewing his performance. What to be heard last Thursday. We will

about this man? We will be joined by In the north`east: Help for the high

It was just like a wall In In the north`east: Help for the high

Street. But is it enough? And had on the capital, its politics and

those who met him. With me, three scruffy eternal

students. They would celebrate if they achieved a C+. But they are all

we could afford and there will be no pay rise for them. They will be

glued to an electronic device throughout the programme and if we

are lucky they might stop there internet shopping and tweet

something intelligent. But don't hold your breath. Janan Ganesh,

Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last week, storms were battering Britain,

the East Coast was hit by the worst tidal surge in more than a century,

thousands of people had to be evacuated and Nelson Mandela died.

The downed the news agenda was the small matter of George Osborne's

Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his takeaways and his first opportunity

to announce some economic cheer. It might be winter outside, but in

the studios it is awesome. Autumn Statement time. -- autumn. This is a

moment of TV history. Normally when the Chancellor delivers these

statements, he has to say the economy is actually a lot worse than

statements, he has to say the everyone predicted. This time, he

can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted. A

lot better. Britain is currently growing faster

than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which

is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this

Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that

borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down

significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good

numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in

giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower

borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British

people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to

government departments. The state pension age will increase in the

2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like

discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for

infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below

that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while

for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a

long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help

those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to

higher out to work. It does not go to

think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I

am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There

is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday

Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?

In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a

red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more

than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying

about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in

terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting

the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was

very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last

time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by

now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to

hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the

Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are

significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be

just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also

worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been

revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of

budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very

much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that

it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the

years after the next general election. As the day draws to a

close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the

graphics budget of my colleague, Robert Preston. It's as good as it

gets these days, I don't think the viewers will mind. It's very Sunday

Politics, if I might say. That is very worrying.

Was this a watershed for George Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed

Balls? We can all make the case that it is the wrong sort of recovery, a

consumer led recovery. People are spending money they don't have. At

the end of the day, it for George Osborne, it is growth, the first

time he has been able to talk about growth. It allows him to control the

baseline, the fiscal debate for the next generation. For Ed Balls,

nearly not a good performance. But don't write this man off. Judging by

Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it all is, said he did a good interview

this morning on a rival TV channel. I feel the fact that the Tories hate

Ed Balls so passionately is probably a good reason that they should hang

onto him, in that Labour sends his effectiveness. May be the Tories

hope that they hold on to him as well? A lot of people shouting at

someone and mocking their speech impediment, that is politics that

doesn't make me want to engage. The takeaway will be lots of people

thinking that none of these people are people they like. Who is the

main heckler on the Labour front bench West remarked I suppose he

can't cast any stones. It would be easier to sympathise with him, if it

were not that David Cameron went through a similar situation and John

Bercow did not step in to stop the wall of noise. It was guaranteed a

good happen to a Labour politician. It's painful to remove him because

he had a Parliamentary following and he will kick up a fuss. I think he's

much more pragmatic on issues like business than Ed Miliband. I'm told

he wasn't keen on the energy price freeze. The problem with Ed Balls,

to have the first words that you say, the Chancellor is in denial,

after he is presiding over growth, it means nobody is listening to you.

Who would replace him? Certainly not Alistair Darling, the side of the

referendum and even afterwards. Ed Balls did get a roasting in the

press and on Twitter. He seemed to disappear from public view following

the Autumn Statement. But a little bird tells me he managed one

interview this morning before he went off to an all-important piano

recital this afternoon. Watch out, Jools Holland, he could be after

your job. How bad was Jools Holland, he could be after

performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The

Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are

defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the

books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will

do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just

the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit

in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie

is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,

in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that

your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of

your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George

Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying

his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living

crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.

That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.

One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking

back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A

Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong

Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has unfortunately it was not made well

in the chamber today. Quoting the Daily Mail, this is two poor

performances. A quote that I can't use because it uses too many four

letter words. Baroness Armstrong, speaking at Progress, a former

Labour Cabinet minister, we are not sufficiently concerned about public

spending, how we would pay for what we are talking about. Quite a

battering? There were two sets of quotes you were giving. The couple

were about the strategy for tackling public expenditure. I think it's

fair that we talk about that. The rest were pretty unattributed,

nameless sources. You have never given and of the record briefing? We

have conversations off camera, but I don't think you have a wealth of

evidence to say that somehow Ed Balls's arguments were wrong. He was

making the point that, ultimately, it is a government that does not

have its finger on the pulse about what most of your viewers are

concerned about, that wages are being squeezed and prices are

getting higher and higher. You have had time to study the Autumn

Statement. What part of it does Labour disagree with? It is a very

big question. I think the overall strategy the Autumn Statement is

setting out does not deal with the fundamental problems in the economy.

What measures do you disagree with? A lot of it is the absence of

measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement. If

you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to

get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of

doing that is on infrastructure. We believe in bringing forward 's

investment and housing, getting some of the fundamentals right in our

economy. By planting, the business lending we have to do. We have seen

a lamentable failing. There are big structural reforms that we need.

Ultimately, the public are concerned about the cost of living crisis.

That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above

all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing

to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare

cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.

You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,

correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are

going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not

include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare

cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not

in the short-term benefits. The state pension is not

we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are

talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about

pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living

longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you

what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for

pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to

announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude

pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension

spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,

exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious

welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year

period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of

that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What

is the longer term? If you win 2015? We want to stick with the triple

lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their

short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the

winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of

benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state

pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40

year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are

writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions

have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,

if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at

pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part

of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term

cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven't

seen the proposition the Government has put before us.

You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true

when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation

does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax

threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the

freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit

changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they

could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors. The

VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My

understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?891

worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have

to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly

the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was

saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely

out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?

Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the

long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are

facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial

Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.

Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal

debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?

I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing

more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a

Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept

that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't

sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this

week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the

country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult

decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March

projections work at for those -- for both business investment and

exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround

in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before

politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have

gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit

investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have

confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now

under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The

fall in business investment is because of the recession. The

forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the

independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans

of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land

Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are

coming through now because of the confidence generated by this

government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would

increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our

share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it

stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I

have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we

would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would

hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.

Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,

then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more

than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.

On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because

the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.

Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in

recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 30%.

120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for

the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part

of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is

straightforward. House prices are now rising ten

times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are

rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average

earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you

would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month

companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this

demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to

give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help

to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as

household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt

reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not

been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,

even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --

but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share

in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The

government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall

economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating

for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for

wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people

employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest

risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending

and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure

you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election

than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more

people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better

off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is

access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe

people will be. Compared to 2010. Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This

is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education

Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always

up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education

then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't

stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,

Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform

education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion

for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's

now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further,

creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 174

have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give

parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,

currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.

An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.

Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia".

Chairman Gove mocked detractors as didn't quite go to plan. Although

GCSEs got harder, plans to replace A-levels had to be abandoned.

Ultimately, the true test of these reforms will be what happens in the

classroom. The person in charge of making sure those classrooms are up

to scratch in England is the Chief Inspector Of Schools, head of

Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins me now.

Over the past 15 years, we have doubled spending on schools even

allowing for inflation. By international standards, we are

stagnating, why? I said last year that mediocrity had settled into the

system. Too many children were coasting in schools, which is why we

changed the grading structure, we removed that awful word,

satisfactory. Saying that good is now the only acceptable standard and

schools had a limited time in which to get to that. We are seeing

gradually, it is difficult to say this in the week we have had the

OECD report. Things have gradually improved. I will come onto that in a

minute. Explain this. International comparisons show us flat-lining or

even falling in some subjects, including science. For 20 years, our

domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece

of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there

a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak

as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is

actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is

about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists

conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things

are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters

were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th

for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,

Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or

outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this

level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last

years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,

absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.

Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is

making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually

translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much

up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good

enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in

enough? All of the schools we GCSE and grade 2. We have to make

sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on

similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going

to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even

worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The

secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who

has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources, you

hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the

classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you

allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education

in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.

You have got to actually empower those people that make the

difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot

of money moving what were local authority schools to become

academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the

academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school

is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that

they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?

Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are

early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce

the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst

schools in the country, academies that took over the worst

difficult circumstances, in academies that took over the worst

much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the

lass academic subjects question my cull OK, but they are doing better

than previous schools. If you look at the top performing nations in the

world, they focus on the quality of teaching. The best graduates coming

to education. They professionally develop them. They make sure they

spot the brightest talents and get them into positions as soon as

possible. We have got to do the same if we are going to catch up with

those jurisdictions. This isn't just a British problem. It seems to be a

European problem. The East Asian countries now dominate the top of

the tables. What's the most important lesson we should learn

from East Asia? Attitudes to work. We need to make sure that we invest

in good teachers, good leaders. We have to make sure that students have

the right attitudes to work. It's no good getting good people into the

classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,

disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers

doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from

that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government

education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am

independent, Ofsted is independent inspectors? I am

things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you

are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.

Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a

pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become

better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going

to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do

better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will

think they are going wrong. Many think they are going wrong. Many

people in the education establishment think your primary

purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into

becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of

academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are

the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I

am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see

academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The

study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise

standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school

leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody

with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot

air has been expounded in charge of a school? A lot of hot

of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified

teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in

three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good

enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a

headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot

get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as

soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you

support the use of unqualified scratch in the classroom. Do you

teachers? I do. I have done it. If I scratch in the classroom. Do you

could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I

thought somebody straight from university, without qualified

thought somebody straight from teachers start this, that they could

communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the

classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are

going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to

local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...

New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.

Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been

examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and

children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the

something I will talk more about something I will talk more about

over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a

school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new

category, underperforms, goes into this new

stay with that institution improves. Sometimes we don't see a

school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted

school for five or seven years. That should pay a much greater part in

monitoring the performance of schools between those inspections.

Are you enjoying it? It is a tough job. Are you enjoying it? This is a

tough job, but I enjoy it. Sometimes.

You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes,

Diane Abbott will be joining us. Welcome to your local politics show.

The Chancellor helps struggling high street shops, and relief for

motorists and real travellers. But will that offset pressure on

household budgets? In the studio, Conservative MP Robert Goodwill. And

Labour MP for Sunderland Central, Julie Elliott. We start with

reaction to the death of Nelson Mandela.

We knew he would not live for ever. But when it happens, how will the

world because this? `` greet. Then we see pictures from solar Africa,

singing and dancing. A celebration of a life that has given us a

picture of what a true human being could be life. `` like. Thank God we

had this gentleman for the years since his release. We give thanks.

In the end, for him, pain is no mirror. `` more. What impact did

Nelson Mandela have on your decision to become politically active? Some

of the first things I ever got involved in politically where the

antiracism campaigns. He showed real leadership. One of those figures

that you look up to and think, yes, politics is worth getting involved

in. Presumably that is true of many of

your colleagues? Yes. Cross`party. He showed that you

can reach across political divides. Much larger ones than we have in

this country. He faced an extraordinary situation

in his life. Today's politicians face more mundane matters, can they

learn from the way he dealt with rings?

Having been treated so badly, having been in prison, he became the

president of his country and then concentrated on building bridges,

not fostering further conflict. We saw in Northern Ireland how that

type of attitude delivered long`term use. In other countries, schools are

being settled. `` scores. Chris Mullin was Minister for

Africa. He has recalled when he met South African president.

It was wonderfully uplifting occasion. He was pulling my leg

about me being a representative of the British Empire! He had a nice

sense of humour although they need serious points. `` he made. We

talked about the AIDS crisis which remains very big in Africa. The

situation in Zimbabwe. The Queen. Who's he got on very well with. He

was often put through to Buckingham Palace directly. Elizabeth, how are

you? It is Nelson the! Did you get the impression, this was a different

type of leader? What marks am apart from other heads

of state I have met is that he served 27 years in prison and

emerged talking peace and reconciliation. Love of 1's enemies

and so forth. And then he oversaw the transition from the apartheid

regime, a brutal apartheid regime, to democracy and save Africa. `` in

South Africa. Then he stood down after one term as president. And in

Africa there is a great history of liberationists turning into

presidents for life. There is a great example in Zimbabwe. So that

made Nelson Mandela stand head and shoulders above not just other

African statesman but around the world.

What will his legacy be? To have overseen the transition from

the uniquely brutal apartheid regime to democracy. Nobody could have had

that. If we had sat here 25 years ago `` nobody could have protect

that, and been told there would be a peaceful transition, people would

have been very sceptical. He irradiated Goodwill and dignity. He

was a great political figure of our lifetime and possibly the most

respected man on the planet. To the Autumn statement. The

Chancellor made clear that forecasts for economic growth are up whilst

unemployment is falling. But is it being felt in Eagles pockets ahead

of Christmas? `` people's. This butcher can carve out a living at

this market but you would like business to be better.

It is much quieter than last year. Not the same foot fall. But don't

have the spending money any more. Electricity and gas is just too

expensive really. It would be nice of the government did something

about that. Shoppers do not feel better off than

last Christmas. We are certainly not better off. It is optimistic to say

things are getting better. Prices are going up but wages are not. My

pension is the same but prices are going up. The same as everybody

else. Broke. Until people here feel it in the pocket, they will not

believe there is real growth. Personal circumstances are not

improving. Concern is not confined to Carlisle of course. But people

here mattered more than most, politically. The Conservative MP

holds one of the most marginal constituencies in the country. There

were people feel and vote could decide who runs the economy after

2015. `` the way that. Scarcely surprising then that the Chancellor

should drop the name of the city into the Autumn statement. The local

MP is a leash. `` bullish. There is confidence things are getting

better. Job creation, unemployment, back to levels last seen in 2008.

The basics are in place. The city centre looks in reasonable health

despite the odd S. `` blemish. The key is when people feel confident

enough and have got jobs to spend money with. So job creation is the

biggest sign of success in the economy. Not whether you are

spending money. That will come as a result of job creation. Hopefully

this time around will be less credit cards and more cash. Come Christmas

2014 it could crucial. If the problem fades, it could be a cracker

for the Conservatives. If not, 2015 good EA happy New Year for Labour.

`` could be a. The labour charges that people are

not feeling the benefit because of the cost of living. `` the Labour

charge is that. We have been living beyond our means. Britain is to pay

its way in the world... What does that have to do with rising bills

and wages not going up. Economic growth should ineffectively would.

`` should benefit everybody. We have made allowances. The price of fuel

is 20p per litre or less than it would have had Labour plans gone

through. We have reduced energy bills by switching subsidies away

from the energy providers back to the Exchequer. And we have managed

to freeze council tax in many parts of the country. It doubled and of

labour. `` under. Cuts to business rates will help small countries ``

companies, the government is doing something to help. It is doing a

little, but not enough. I must challenge Robert assertion that fuel

bills are being cut. They are higher than last winter. 3p in every litre

since the government given to power. Not the magical figures that keep

the imported. `` being quoted. You have identified a cost`of`living

bobble but you don't have a solution. You cannot control prices.

We could sort out the energy market and make costs transparent. We have

promises on youth unemployment, to try to get people back into work.

But actually you do not have any more answers than the coalition.

They are at least lifting people out of tax and freezing council tax. We

are saying that if they had not put VAT... But you cannot tackle the

crisis anymore than the Conservatives Liberal Democrats.

There is still incredibly high unemployment. High youth

unemployment. The government done nothing to tackle it. We need to get

people back into real jobs. A massive surge in part`time

employment. Zero hours employment. People cannot plan or budget. The

government are simply not doing anything to tackle those things. We

held about creations of jobs but if those on low paid as evil contract,

people will not feel any better. `` low paid or zero contract. JCB

announced this weekend a big employment rights. We are seeing

proper jobs in engineering and manufacturing. But they are still at

low paid or zero hours. Some people like that, it fits in with their

lifestyle. But we're getting back to proper jobs in manufacturing. Nissan

are producing a car every 30 seconds in Sunderland. Weird again making

things as a country. `` we are again. What more can you do?

Anything that can be done to help, we do not argue against that. But

some of the proposals are not coming in for a couple of years. Action is

not being taken now to get young people back into work. We want them

back into work now. Then they have the money to spend in the economy. I

don't think Labour has explained properly how employers will suddenly

be able to give young people jobs. It is being funded by a tax on

bankers bonuses. But this is something down`the`line, in the

future. We welcome anything that will help, but we need action now.

There simply isn't anything happening at the moment to help

people back into proper jobs. Yes, Nissan is a tremendous example, but

we also lost jobs with in power. `` npower. So there have been losses as

well as good news stories. Not enough now. Cuts in national

insurance contributions are real incentives to get the bill employed.

`` people. We can see how consistently wrong Ed Balls has been

about everything. Remember plan B? They tried it in France. It is

bitterly not working. Let's not give the keys back to the people who

crashed the car last time. should it cost to call the local

council? Some are using premium rate phone lines. With that story and the

rest of the week's news, he is 60 seconds.

Granted Davey has confirmed Northumberland council will change

its policy after criticism of union rate contact numbers. `` premium. We

will have ten local numbers. We are hoping to introduce a mobile number.

So that people with pay`as`you`go contracts can make cheaper phone

calls. There are plans in Cumbria to withdraw subsidies from loss`making

bus routes to save ?2 million every year. At a local MP warned that some

rural residents will be left out. And the exhibition of the

Lindisfarne Gospels in Durham brought more than ?8 million of

benefits to the region, attracting 100,000 people from 58 countries.

Bosses now, and it is not as Cumbria, other local authorities are

cutting back subsidies. `` buses. Can you explain why some rural

people will no longer be able to get a bus out of the village? 45% of the

failures come from subsidy. `` fares. That is because of a ground

which is like a fuel subsidy. In addition, we have pensioners

concessionary fare schemes. The problem is that this is a dead hand

way of subsidising. It does not encourage environmentally friendly

vehicles. It concentrates on city centres and not frugal areas. ``

ruble. `` Rowell. The reality is that services are being cut which

will affect the country certainly able with a poorer service. At the

moment this is a blanket subsidy from services. That may mean a

service that is running well does not media subsidy subsidies getting

one. Whereas a ruler and service is being cut.

This could be late for people that have lost their bosses. Local

authorities are having a very difficult time. Having to make cuts

for the reasons we just lead to. We have ruled the subsidies into the

general and that councils get. In some cases, North Yorks Company at

decided to cut services that are underused or bad sometimes weekend

and evening services. Robert says councils across the North have to

make difficult choices. There is a lot of money going in. They should

think more intelligently about this. The cuts are quite dramatic and

having impact across the piece. But in rural areas the service is

absolutely crucial. How did people get to work? There should be some

form of protection control. You would like less money spent

subsidising buses in Oregon areas? `` urban. That doesn't happen

because in the cities there are more people, they are used more often.

Into line and were it has been put out to consultation and are still

moving forward. `` in time and we are. `` Tyne Wear. That is

something I particularly keen on. What is the answer for councils? The

problem... The problem that councils face is that they have a number of

responsibilities which are statutory. Education, social

services, financing pensioners concessionary schemes. So it does

mean that the discretionary amount that is left is under pressure. 45%

of the money going into the gearbox is government subsidy. `` farebox.

We need corporation with a bus companies. This is confrontation. It

is not. It is about regulating the service and moderating profits. The

companies are making very high profits. We would be happy with the

London model. Equality contract of sorts, it works very well. The other

big story of the week, the floods which have caused damage and

disruption to communities across the North. Homes were evacuated after

the Tees burst its banks. One of the worst affected areas was Whitby.

Parts of the town centre were underwater. The harbour area was

plunged into darkness. Power supplies failed. Are you satisfied

that the way this was handled? We are very pleased that the Met Office

and environment agency alerted the ball very well. There was no loss of

life. The emergency services were exemplary. Even when the power went

off they were able to help people. But they will be a long`term problem

with the number of businesses affected. But in Scarborough and

Whitby. Over the weekend I have been visiting a number that have been

affected. I will make sure, as an MP, that if they have problems with

insurance of compensation, that I can intercede. We keep hearing about

these extreme weather events. Do we have to Jaaskelainen and bail them?

`` do we have to just grin and bear it? The problem would have been

worse had investment not when Anne. But we are not King Canute. This was

an exceptionally high tide. A number of factors meant it was particularly

high. A number of properties that could not defend the did get water

damage and there would be a clean`up operation.

That is all from us. It is getting close to Christmas. You will never

get your presents wrapped and to give but if we are there to distract

you so you're taking a break. We will be back

Tomorrow, the House of Commons will pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela.

Our nation has lost its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.

The first thing I ever did that involved an issue or policy, or

politics, was protest against apartheid.

I think his greatest legacy, to South Africa and to the world, is

the emphasis which he has always put on the need for a conciliation, on

the importance of human rights. He also made us understand that we can

change the world. We can change the world by changing attitudes, by

changing perceptions. For this reason, I would like to pay him

tribute as a great human being, who raised the standard of humanity.

Thank you for the gift of Madiba. Thank you for what he has enabled us

to know we can become. We are joined now by the Labour MP

Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not one after he was released from

prison in 1990. He went as an election observer for the first one

person, one-vote in South Africa. I would guess, of all the people you

met in your life, you must have been the most impressive and biggest

influence? He was extraordinary. He had just come out of prison, 28

years in reason. He had seen a lot of his colleagues tortured, blown up

and killed. He was entirely without bitterness. That is what came

across. That was key to his achievement, to achieve a peaceful

transition. Everybody thought that if you have black majority rule, you

might have a bloodbath. It's down to Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I

remember FW de Klerk saying that Mandela was the key to getting a

peaceful transition. Absolutely the key, an amazing man. London was one

of the centres, people talked about it as being the other centre of the

anti-apartheid struggle. That anti-apartheid struggle in London,

it had an effect on black politics in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were

black and politically active at the time, the apartheid struggle, the

struggle against white supremacy in South Africa, was very important.

Whatever your colour, the anti-apartheid struggle,

Whatever your colour, the campaign. We have the 50th

anniversary of Kennedy's assassination. Mr Mandela's death.

We are kind of running out of people that inspired us? I will never

forget where I was when I saw him come out of prison, hand-in-hand

with the women, I might add. If you have spent your whole teenage years

and 20 is boycotting, marching, picketing, to see him actually come

out was amazing. Do you think it was more exciting to meet you or the

Spice Girls? I think the Spice Girls. What did the Labour

backbenchers think about Ed Balls's performance after the Autumn

Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a brilliant man, but I think even he

would say that it was not his best performance. But if you look at the

polls, the public liked the points he made. The backbenchers were

quiet, there was something wrong? I noticed that. It was like a wall of

sound, deliberately. They know that under pressure his stamina might

come back and it is difficult for him. That is what they were trying

to incite. I have had experience first hand, a look at all of these

anonymous and sometimes not anonymous quotes in the media. The

spinning has begun against him? This is the party of

spinning has begun against him? This matter what the Tories say, we can

say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to

Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he

wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless

enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid

of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed

Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the

right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed

Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview

because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument

with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just

about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to

look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of

living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than

that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective

member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown

years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys

that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to

replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,

Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the

Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about

shifting tectonic plates, think he would do it. Talk about

wouldn't it? But it is a step too far. Ed Balls would not be too

happy. It is not something you would want to do lightly. That sounds a

bit of a threat. Not from you. I can't see Ed Balls magnanimously

retreating and say, go on, Alistair Darling, take the job I have been

after all career. Where do you put him? Do you make him a middle

ranking business or welfare secretary? He wouldn't do that. If

you sack him, he would retreat to the backbenchers. He might take up

knitting and practices piano scales, or he might have a blood feud with

Ed Miliband. I don't know which could be. You look back to when he

was schools Secretary, you could feel he was constantly fuming. I

think he is better inside the tent, looking out, than the other way

around. The thing one Labour strategist said to me was that he is

too much looking into the rear-view mirror, when it comes to economic

policy. He needs to look ahead through the windscreen. That had

some resonance? He was at the centre of Labour's economic policy-making

from the mid-90s. So it's hard for him but he has to look forward.

There is an interesting comparison with 2009. Gordon Brown got in

trouble when he said the choice is between Labour investment and Tory

cuts. Everybody knew it was between Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other

words, he was not acknowledging reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can

say it is the wrong sort of recovery, but there is a recovery.

Does he not need to absorb that punch and say there is a recovery,

then people will listen to him? Possibly. We know that the

macroeconomics are looking better. We also know people are not

experiencing it as a recovery in living standards. No one, not even

Tories, really believe that David Cameron knows what it is like for

middle-income people to live normal lives. Living standards is

particularly powerful because of the composition of the government? Don't

go away. This time last year we ambushed our political panel with a

quiz. They didn't come out of it smelling of roses, but they did come

out rather smelly. Will the coalition still be in place

a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I say definitely as well. From now,

one year, will we know the date of the European referendum? Yes. No. I

say no as well. How much growth will there be? Less than 1%. Father

Christmas is less qualified than me, but I will go for one. I will go for

a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a third of that. I am with you, and

1%. We didn't do too badly. What will growth be next year? I will

remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got

it wrong last year. Well, they went down in March and then went back in

December. I'm going to go under and claim credit where it's higher. I'm

going to say 1%. Deliberately get it wrong. Given our record, if we say

there is going to be spectacular growth, does it mean we're going to

go into recession? There is incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%,

because the housing market in London is rocketing. It would be closer to

3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this

time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, I value my life. Will UKIP mean the

European elections, by which I mean have the highest percentage of the

vote? Yes. Second behind Labour. Second behind Labour. Will Alex

Salmond win the independence referendum? No, but it will be

closer than we think. No, unless they do something catastrophic like

let Cameron debate him. Too close to call. Controversial. How many

Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than

anyone thinks. The entire population of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, I'm confident.

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, your magazine. Not

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, but a lot here already will

normalise and be counted into figures. Too many for most

right-wing commentators. I think quite a few will come, but not the

kind of numbers that made such a huge difference. This time,

everybody is open. They do like to speak English, that is the reason

they want to come. We'll all three of you still be here by this time

next year? Yes. Would you recommend that? Yes, keep them. And he has

lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If you can keep affording me, I will be

here. I hope so, it sounds like you have a firing squad outside. I hope

so, maybe you will find some true talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they?

Let me put this to you, I think you will agree. The coalition will not

break now, this side of the election next year? There will not be... They

will not go their own ways by this time next year? Of next year, maybe

just after. Early 2015. This side of the election? What is the UKIP view?

I don't think there is an advantage to either of them. If the Lib Dems

pulled out, they would look like there were a lodger in the Tory

house of government. there were a lodger in the Tory

would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think

that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick

Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all

of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the

grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force

that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.

I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives

you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the

first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the

Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.