08/12/2013 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


08/12/2013

Andrew Neil and Richard Moss with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

:00:38.:00:44.

morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%

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pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

:00:50.:00:55.

credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

:00:56.:01:00.

tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

:01:01.:01:02.

Complete denial about the central Should this man get a pay rise?

:01:03.:01:09.

facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed Balls? He was certainly working hard

:01:10.:01:12.

facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed to be heard last Thursday. We will

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be reviewing his performance. What to be heard last Thursday. We will

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about this man? We will be joined by In the north`east: Help for the high

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It was just like a wall In In the north`east: Help for the high

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Street. But is it enough? And had on the capital, its politics and

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those who met him. With me, three scruffy eternal

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students. They would celebrate if they achieved a C+. But they are all

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we could afford and there will be no pay rise for them. They will be

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glued to an electronic device throughout the programme and if we

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are lucky they might stop there internet shopping and tweet

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something intelligent. But don't hold your breath. Janan Ganesh,

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Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last week, storms were battering Britain,

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the East Coast was hit by the worst tidal surge in more than a century,

:02:13.:02:16.

thousands of people had to be evacuated and Nelson Mandela died.

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The downed the news agenda was the small matter of George Osborne's

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Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his takeaways and his first opportunity

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to announce some economic cheer. It might be winter outside, but in

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the studios it is awesome. Autumn Statement time. -- autumn. This is a

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moment of TV history. Normally when the Chancellor delivers these

:02:51.:02:53.

statements, he has to say the economy is actually a lot worse than

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statements, he has to say the everyone predicted. This time, he

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can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted. A

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lot better. Britain is currently growing faster

:03:01.:03:09.

than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which

:03:10.:03:17.

is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this

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Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that

:03:23.:03:27.

borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down

:03:28.:03:31.

significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good

:03:32.:03:34.

numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in

:03:35.:03:40.

giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower

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borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British

:03:45.:03:52.

people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to

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government departments. The state pension age will increase in the

:03:56.:04:01.

2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like

:04:02.:04:06.

discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for

:04:07.:04:09.

infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below

:04:10.:04:15.

that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while

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for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a

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long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help

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those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to

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higher out to work. It does not go to

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think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I

:04:37.:04:39.

am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There

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is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday

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Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?

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In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a

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red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more

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than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying

:05:10.:05:13.

about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in

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terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting

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the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was

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very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last

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time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by

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now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to

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hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the

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Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are

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significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be

:05:51.:05:53.

just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also

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worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been

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revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of

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budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very

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much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that

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it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the

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years after the next general election. As the day draws to a

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close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the

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graphics budget of my colleague, Robert Preston. It's as good as it

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gets these days, I don't think the viewers will mind. It's very Sunday

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Politics, if I might say. That is very worrying.

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Was this a watershed for George Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed

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Balls? We can all make the case that it is the wrong sort of recovery, a

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consumer led recovery. People are spending money they don't have. At

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the end of the day, it for George Osborne, it is growth, the first

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time he has been able to talk about growth. It allows him to control the

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baseline, the fiscal debate for the next generation. For Ed Balls,

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nearly not a good performance. But don't write this man off. Judging by

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Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it all is, said he did a good interview

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this morning on a rival TV channel. I feel the fact that the Tories hate

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Ed Balls so passionately is probably a good reason that they should hang

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onto him, in that Labour sends his effectiveness. May be the Tories

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hope that they hold on to him as well? A lot of people shouting at

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someone and mocking their speech impediment, that is politics that

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doesn't make me want to engage. The takeaway will be lots of people

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thinking that none of these people are people they like. Who is the

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main heckler on the Labour front bench West remarked I suppose he

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can't cast any stones. It would be easier to sympathise with him, if it

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were not that David Cameron went through a similar situation and John

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Bercow did not step in to stop the wall of noise. It was guaranteed a

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good happen to a Labour politician. It's painful to remove him because

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he had a Parliamentary following and he will kick up a fuss. I think he's

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much more pragmatic on issues like business than Ed Miliband. I'm told

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he wasn't keen on the energy price freeze. The problem with Ed Balls,

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to have the first words that you say, the Chancellor is in denial,

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after he is presiding over growth, it means nobody is listening to you.

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Who would replace him? Certainly not Alistair Darling, the side of the

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referendum and even afterwards. Ed Balls did get a roasting in the

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press and on Twitter. He seemed to disappear from public view following

:09:01.:09:03.

the Autumn Statement. But a little bird tells me he managed one

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interview this morning before he went off to an all-important piano

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recital this afternoon. Watch out, Jools Holland, he could be after

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your job. How bad was Jools Holland, he could be after

:09:13.:09:16.

performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The

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Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are

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defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the

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books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will

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do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just

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the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit

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in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie

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is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,

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in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that

:10:15.:10:19.

your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of

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your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George

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Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying

:10:29.:10:32.

his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living

:10:33.:10:35.

crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.

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That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.

:10:40.:10:44.

One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking

:10:45.:10:47.

back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A

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Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong

:10:54.:10:55.

Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has unfortunately it was not made well

:10:56.:11:00.

in the chamber today. Quoting the Daily Mail, this is two poor

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performances. A quote that I can't use because it uses too many four

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letter words. Baroness Armstrong, speaking at Progress, a former

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Labour Cabinet minister, we are not sufficiently concerned about public

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spending, how we would pay for what we are talking about. Quite a

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battering? There were two sets of quotes you were giving. The couple

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were about the strategy for tackling public expenditure. I think it's

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fair that we talk about that. The rest were pretty unattributed,

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nameless sources. You have never given and of the record briefing? We

:11:42.:11:53.

have conversations off camera, but I don't think you have a wealth of

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evidence to say that somehow Ed Balls's arguments were wrong. He was

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making the point that, ultimately, it is a government that does not

:12:03.:12:06.

have its finger on the pulse about what most of your viewers are

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concerned about, that wages are being squeezed and prices are

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getting higher and higher. You have had time to study the Autumn

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Statement. What part of it does Labour disagree with? It is a very

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big question. I think the overall strategy the Autumn Statement is

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setting out does not deal with the fundamental problems in the economy.

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What measures do you disagree with? A lot of it is the absence of

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measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement. If

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you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to

:12:42.:12:45.

get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of

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doing that is on infrastructure. We believe in bringing forward 's

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investment and housing, getting some of the fundamentals right in our

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economy. By planting, the business lending we have to do. We have seen

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a lamentable failing. There are big structural reforms that we need.

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Ultimately, the public are concerned about the cost of living crisis.

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That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above

:13:20.:13:23.

all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing

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to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare

:13:29.:13:34.

cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.

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You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,

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correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are

:13:44.:13:48.

going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not

:13:49.:13:52.

include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare

:13:53.:13:58.

cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not

:13:59.:14:00.

in the short-term benefits. The state pension is not

:14:01.:14:04.

we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are

:14:05.:14:09.

talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about

:14:10.:14:12.

pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living

:14:13.:14:15.

longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you

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what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for

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pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to

:14:27.:14:29.

announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude

:14:30.:14:33.

pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension

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spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,

:14:39.:14:43.

exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious

:14:44.:14:46.

welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year

:14:47.:14:52.

period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of

:14:53.:14:57.

that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What

:14:58.:15:05.

is the longer term? If you win 2015? We want to stick with the triple

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lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their

:15:12.:15:14.

short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the

:15:15.:15:18.

winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of

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benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state

:15:25.:15:27.

pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40

:15:28.:15:34.

year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are

:15:35.:15:44.

writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions

:15:45.:15:48.

have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,

:15:49.:15:52.

if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at

:15:53.:15:55.

pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part

:15:56.:16:02.

of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term

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cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven't

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seen the proposition the Government has put before us.

:16:16.:16:21.

You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true

:16:22.:16:31.

when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation

:16:32.:16:36.

does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax

:16:37.:16:41.

threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the

:16:42.:16:46.

freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit

:16:47.:16:49.

changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they

:16:50.:16:55.

could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors. The

:16:56.:17:03.

VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My

:17:04.:17:09.

understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?891

:17:10.:17:15.

worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have

:17:16.:17:23.

to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly

:17:24.:17:26.

the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was

:17:27.:17:32.

saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely

:17:33.:17:38.

out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?

:17:39.:17:43.

Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the

:17:44.:17:47.

long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are

:17:48.:17:51.

facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial

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Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.

:17:55.:18:02.

Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal

:18:03.:18:08.

debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?

:18:09.:18:13.

I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing

:18:14.:18:19.

more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a

:18:20.:18:25.

Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept

:18:26.:18:33.

that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't

:18:34.:18:39.

sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this

:18:40.:18:44.

week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the

:18:45.:18:49.

country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult

:18:50.:18:54.

decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March

:18:55.:19:05.

projections work at for those -- for both business investment and

:19:06.:19:09.

exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround

:19:10.:19:15.

in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before

:19:16.:19:19.

politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have

:19:20.:19:24.

gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit

:19:25.:19:30.

investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have

:19:31.:19:33.

confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now

:19:34.:19:42.

under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The

:19:43.:19:49.

fall in business investment is because of the recession. The

:19:50.:19:55.

forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the

:19:56.:20:01.

independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans

:20:02.:20:07.

of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land

:20:08.:20:14.

Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are

:20:15.:20:18.

coming through now because of the confidence generated by this

:20:19.:20:22.

government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would

:20:23.:20:27.

increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our

:20:28.:20:33.

share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it

:20:34.:20:41.

stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I

:20:42.:20:45.

have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we

:20:46.:20:54.

would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would

:20:55.:21:00.

hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.

:21:01.:21:04.

Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,

:21:05.:21:11.

then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more

:21:12.:21:15.

than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.

:21:16.:21:23.

On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because

:21:24.:21:26.

the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.

:21:27.:21:31.

Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in

:21:32.:21:36.

recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 30%.

:21:37.:21:47.

120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for

:21:48.:21:52.

the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part

:21:53.:21:58.

of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is

:21:59.:22:02.

straightforward. House prices are now rising ten

:22:03.:22:10.

times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are

:22:11.:22:18.

rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average

:22:19.:22:23.

earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you

:22:24.:22:28.

would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month

:22:29.:22:32.

companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this

:22:33.:22:39.

demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to

:22:40.:22:43.

give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help

:22:44.:23:27.

to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as

:23:28.:23:37.

household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt

:23:38.:23:51.

reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not

:23:52.:23:56.

been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,

:23:57.:24:05.

even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --

:24:06.:24:16.

but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share

:24:17.:24:22.

in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The

:24:23.:24:28.

government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall

:24:29.:24:33.

economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating

:24:34.:24:43.

for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for

:24:44.:24:48.

wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people

:24:49.:24:52.

employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest

:24:53.:25:00.

risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending

:25:01.:25:05.

and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure

:25:06.:25:09.

you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election

:25:10.:25:16.

than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more

:25:17.:25:23.

people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better

:25:24.:25:27.

off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is

:25:28.:25:31.

access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe

:25:32.:25:39.

people will be. Compared to 2010. Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This

:25:40.:25:44.

is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education

:25:45.:25:50.

Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always

:25:51.:25:54.

up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education

:25:55.:25:57.

then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't

:25:58.:26:05.

stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,

:26:06.:26:08.

Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform

:26:09.:26:11.

education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion

:26:12.:26:17.

for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's

:26:18.:26:22.

now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further,

:26:23.:26:24.

creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 174

:26:25.:26:32.

have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give

:26:33.:26:34.

parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,

:26:35.:26:37.

currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.

:26:38.:26:41.

An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.

:26:42.:26:45.

Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia".

:26:46.:26:49.

Chairman Gove mocked detractors as didn't quite go to plan. Although

:26:50.:26:54.

GCSEs got harder, plans to replace A-levels had to be abandoned.

:26:55.:26:58.

Ultimately, the true test of these reforms will be what happens in the

:26:59.:27:04.

classroom. The person in charge of making sure those classrooms are up

:27:05.:27:07.

to scratch in England is the Chief Inspector Of Schools, head of

:27:08.:27:09.

Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins me now.

:27:10.:27:15.

Over the past 15 years, we have doubled spending on schools even

:27:16.:27:20.

allowing for inflation. By international standards, we are

:27:21.:27:25.

stagnating, why? I said last year that mediocrity had settled into the

:27:26.:27:30.

system. Too many children were coasting in schools, which is why we

:27:31.:27:41.

changed the grading structure, we removed that awful word,

:27:42.:27:47.

satisfactory. Saying that good is now the only acceptable standard and

:27:48.:27:50.

schools had a limited time in which to get to that. We are seeing

:27:51.:27:53.

gradually, it is difficult to say this in the week we have had the

:27:54.:27:58.

OECD report. Things have gradually improved. I will come onto that in a

:27:59.:28:06.

minute. Explain this. International comparisons show us flat-lining or

:28:07.:28:10.

even falling in some subjects, including science. For 20 years, our

:28:11.:28:16.

domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece

:28:17.:28:20.

of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there

:28:21.:28:24.

a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak

:28:25.:28:30.

as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is

:28:31.:28:35.

actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is

:28:36.:28:46.

about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists

:28:47.:28:50.

conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things

:28:51.:28:55.

are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters

:28:56.:28:59.

were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th

:29:00.:29:08.

for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,

:29:09.:29:14.

Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or

:29:15.:29:19.

outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this

:29:20.:29:24.

level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last

:29:25.:29:26.

years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,

:29:27.:29:34.

absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.

:29:35.:29:39.

Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is

:29:40.:29:42.

making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually

:29:43.:29:44.

translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much

:29:45.:29:54.

up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good

:29:55.:29:59.

enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in

:30:00.:30:02.

enough? All of the schools we GCSE and grade 2. We have to make

:30:03.:30:07.

sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on

:30:08.:30:11.

similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going

:30:12.:30:15.

to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even

:30:16.:30:19.

worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The

:30:20.:30:25.

secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who

:30:26.:30:30.

has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources, you

:30:31.:30:35.

hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the

:30:36.:30:38.

classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you

:30:39.:30:45.

allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education

:30:46.:30:49.

in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.

:30:50.:30:53.

You have got to actually empower those people that make the

:30:54.:30:56.

difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot

:30:57.:31:02.

of money moving what were local authority schools to become

:31:03.:31:04.

academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the

:31:05.:31:08.

academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school

:31:09.:31:12.

is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that

:31:13.:31:17.

they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?

:31:18.:31:20.

Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are

:31:21.:31:25.

early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce

:31:26.:31:30.

the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst

:31:31.:31:32.

schools in the country, academies that took over the worst

:31:33.:31:35.

difficult circumstances, in academies that took over the worst

:31:36.:31:41.

much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the

:31:42.:31:48.

lass academic subjects question my cull OK, but they are doing better

:31:49.:31:53.

than previous schools. If you look at the top performing nations in the

:31:54.:31:58.

world, they focus on the quality of teaching. The best graduates coming

:31:59.:32:08.

to education. They professionally develop them. They make sure they

:32:09.:32:11.

spot the brightest talents and get them into positions as soon as

:32:12.:32:16.

possible. We have got to do the same if we are going to catch up with

:32:17.:32:22.

those jurisdictions. This isn't just a British problem. It seems to be a

:32:23.:32:26.

European problem. The East Asian countries now dominate the top of

:32:27.:32:29.

the tables. What's the most important lesson we should learn

:32:30.:32:34.

from East Asia? Attitudes to work. We need to make sure that we invest

:32:35.:32:39.

in good teachers, good leaders. We have to make sure that students have

:32:40.:32:44.

the right attitudes to work. It's no good getting good people into the

:32:45.:32:49.

classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,

:32:50.:32:52.

disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers

:32:53.:33:00.

doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from

:33:01.:33:05.

that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government

:33:06.:33:08.

education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am

:33:09.:33:11.

independent, Ofsted is independent inspectors? I am

:33:12.:33:18.

things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you

:33:19.:33:22.

are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.

:33:23.:33:26.

Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a

:33:27.:33:30.

pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become

:33:31.:33:36.

better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going

:33:37.:33:41.

to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do

:33:42.:33:44.

better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will

:33:45.:33:48.

think they are going wrong. Many think they are going wrong. Many

:33:49.:33:52.

people in the education establishment think your primary

:33:53.:33:55.

purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into

:33:56.:34:02.

becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of

:34:03.:34:07.

academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are

:34:08.:34:10.

the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I

:34:11.:34:15.

am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see

:34:16.:34:23.

academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The

:34:24.:34:28.

study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise

:34:29.:34:34.

standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school

:34:35.:34:37.

leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody

:34:38.:34:41.

with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot

:34:42.:34:44.

air has been expounded in charge of a school? A lot of hot

:34:45.:34:48.

of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified

:34:49.:34:51.

teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in

:34:52.:35:00.

three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good

:35:01.:35:03.

enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a

:35:04.:35:07.

headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot

:35:08.:35:10.

get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as

:35:11.:35:14.

soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you

:35:15.:35:17.

support the use of unqualified scratch in the classroom. Do you

:35:18.:35:19.

teachers? I do. I have done it. If I scratch in the classroom. Do you

:35:20.:35:24.

could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I

:35:25.:35:27.

thought somebody straight from university, without qualified

:35:28.:35:28.

thought somebody straight from teachers start this, that they could

:35:29.:35:31.

communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the

:35:32.:35:36.

classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are

:35:37.:35:40.

going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to

:35:41.:35:43.

local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...

:35:44.:35:49.

New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.

:35:50.:35:54.

Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been

:35:55.:36:01.

examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and

:36:02.:36:05.

children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the

:36:06.:36:09.

something I will talk more about something I will talk more about

:36:10.:36:12.

over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a

:36:13.:36:15.

school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new

:36:16.:36:17.

category, underperforms, goes into this new

:36:18.:36:20.

stay with that institution improves. Sometimes we don't see a

:36:21.:36:27.

school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted

:36:28.:36:30.

school for five or seven years. That should pay a much greater part in

:36:31.:36:33.

monitoring the performance of schools between those inspections.

:36:34.:36:38.

Are you enjoying it? It is a tough job. Are you enjoying it? This is a

:36:39.:36:44.

tough job, but I enjoy it. Sometimes.

:36:45.:36:50.

You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes,

:36:51.:36:52.

Diane Abbott will be joining us. Welcome to your local politics show.

:36:53.:37:12.

The Chancellor helps struggling high street shops, and relief for

:37:13.:37:16.

motorists and real travellers. But will that offset pressure on

:37:17.:37:26.

household budgets? In the studio, Conservative MP Robert Goodwill. And

:37:27.:37:32.

Labour MP for Sunderland Central, Julie Elliott. We start with

:37:33.:37:38.

reaction to the death of Nelson Mandela.

:37:39.:37:46.

We knew he would not live for ever. But when it happens, how will the

:37:47.:37:59.

world because this? `` greet. Then we see pictures from solar Africa,

:38:00.:38:03.

singing and dancing. A celebration of a life that has given us a

:38:04.:38:06.

picture of what a true human being could be life. `` like. Thank God we

:38:07.:38:15.

had this gentleman for the years since his release. We give thanks.

:38:16.:38:22.

In the end, for him, pain is no mirror. `` more. What impact did

:38:23.:38:31.

Nelson Mandela have on your decision to become politically active? Some

:38:32.:38:38.

of the first things I ever got involved in politically where the

:38:39.:38:41.

antiracism campaigns. He showed real leadership. One of those figures

:38:42.:38:51.

that you look up to and think, yes, politics is worth getting involved

:38:52.:38:56.

in. Presumably that is true of many of

:38:57.:38:59.

your colleagues? Yes. Cross`party. He showed that you

:39:00.:39:09.

can reach across political divides. Much larger ones than we have in

:39:10.:39:15.

this country. He faced an extraordinary situation

:39:16.:39:21.

in his life. Today's politicians face more mundane matters, can they

:39:22.:39:24.

learn from the way he dealt with rings?

:39:25.:39:32.

Having been treated so badly, having been in prison, he became the

:39:33.:39:38.

president of his country and then concentrated on building bridges,

:39:39.:39:45.

not fostering further conflict. We saw in Northern Ireland how that

:39:46.:39:47.

type of attitude delivered long`term use. In other countries, schools are

:39:48.:39:58.

being settled. `` scores. Chris Mullin was Minister for

:39:59.:40:02.

Africa. He has recalled when he met South African president.

:40:03.:40:11.

It was wonderfully uplifting occasion. He was pulling my leg

:40:12.:40:16.

about me being a representative of the British Empire! He had a nice

:40:17.:40:21.

sense of humour although they need serious points. `` he made. We

:40:22.:40:31.

talked about the AIDS crisis which remains very big in Africa. The

:40:32.:40:40.

situation in Zimbabwe. The Queen. Who's he got on very well with. He

:40:41.:40:46.

was often put through to Buckingham Palace directly. Elizabeth, how are

:40:47.:40:57.

you? It is Nelson the! Did you get the impression, this was a different

:40:58.:41:03.

type of leader? What marks am apart from other heads

:41:04.:41:11.

of state I have met is that he served 27 years in prison and

:41:12.:41:16.

emerged talking peace and reconciliation. Love of 1's enemies

:41:17.:41:26.

and so forth. And then he oversaw the transition from the apartheid

:41:27.:41:33.

regime, a brutal apartheid regime, to democracy and save Africa. `` in

:41:34.:41:41.

South Africa. Then he stood down after one term as president. And in

:41:42.:41:48.

Africa there is a great history of liberationists turning into

:41:49.:41:52.

presidents for life. There is a great example in Zimbabwe. So that

:41:53.:41:59.

made Nelson Mandela stand head and shoulders above not just other

:42:00.:42:02.

African statesman but around the world.

:42:03.:42:11.

What will his legacy be? To have overseen the transition from

:42:12.:42:18.

the uniquely brutal apartheid regime to democracy. Nobody could have had

:42:19.:42:25.

that. If we had sat here 25 years ago `` nobody could have protect

:42:26.:42:31.

that, and been told there would be a peaceful transition, people would

:42:32.:42:38.

have been very sceptical. He irradiated Goodwill and dignity. He

:42:39.:42:47.

was a great political figure of our lifetime and possibly the most

:42:48.:42:53.

respected man on the planet. To the Autumn statement. The

:42:54.:42:58.

Chancellor made clear that forecasts for economic growth are up whilst

:42:59.:43:02.

unemployment is falling. But is it being felt in Eagles pockets ahead

:43:03.:43:17.

of Christmas? `` people's. This butcher can carve out a living at

:43:18.:43:20.

this market but you would like business to be better.

:43:21.:43:26.

It is much quieter than last year. Not the same foot fall. But don't

:43:27.:43:33.

have the spending money any more. Electricity and gas is just too

:43:34.:43:38.

expensive really. It would be nice of the government did something

:43:39.:43:43.

about that. Shoppers do not feel better off than

:43:44.:43:49.

last Christmas. We are certainly not better off. It is optimistic to say

:43:50.:44:00.

things are getting better. Prices are going up but wages are not. My

:44:01.:44:06.

pension is the same but prices are going up. The same as everybody

:44:07.:44:08.

else. Broke. Until people here feel it in the pocket, they will not

:44:09.:44:25.

believe there is real growth. Personal circumstances are not

:44:26.:44:36.

improving. Concern is not confined to Carlisle of course. But people

:44:37.:44:40.

here mattered more than most, politically. The Conservative MP

:44:41.:44:46.

holds one of the most marginal constituencies in the country. There

:44:47.:44:51.

were people feel and vote could decide who runs the economy after

:44:52.:45:04.

2015. `` the way that. Scarcely surprising then that the Chancellor

:45:05.:45:07.

should drop the name of the city into the Autumn statement. The local

:45:08.:45:17.

MP is a leash. `` bullish. There is confidence things are getting

:45:18.:45:23.

better. Job creation, unemployment, back to levels last seen in 2008.

:45:24.:45:31.

The basics are in place. The city centre looks in reasonable health

:45:32.:45:42.

despite the odd S. `` blemish. The key is when people feel confident

:45:43.:45:45.

enough and have got jobs to spend money with. So job creation is the

:45:46.:45:52.

biggest sign of success in the economy. Not whether you are

:45:53.:45:56.

spending money. That will come as a result of job creation. Hopefully

:45:57.:46:01.

this time around will be less credit cards and more cash. Come Christmas

:46:02.:46:11.

2014 it could crucial. If the problem fades, it could be a cracker

:46:12.:46:17.

for the Conservatives. If not, 2015 good EA happy New Year for Labour.

:46:18.:46:27.

`` could be a. The labour charges that people are

:46:28.:46:30.

not feeling the benefit because of the cost of living. `` the Labour

:46:31.:46:42.

charge is that. We have been living beyond our means. Britain is to pay

:46:43.:46:48.

its way in the world... What does that have to do with rising bills

:46:49.:46:51.

and wages not going up. Economic growth should ineffectively would.

:46:52.:47:01.

`` should benefit everybody. We have made allowances. The price of fuel

:47:02.:47:07.

is 20p per litre or less than it would have had Labour plans gone

:47:08.:47:14.

through. We have reduced energy bills by switching subsidies away

:47:15.:47:17.

from the energy providers back to the Exchequer. And we have managed

:47:18.:47:25.

to freeze council tax in many parts of the country. It doubled and of

:47:26.:47:36.

labour. `` under. Cuts to business rates will help small countries ``

:47:37.:47:40.

companies, the government is doing something to help. It is doing a

:47:41.:47:48.

little, but not enough. I must challenge Robert assertion that fuel

:47:49.:47:51.

bills are being cut. They are higher than last winter. 3p in every litre

:47:52.:48:01.

since the government given to power. Not the magical figures that keep

:48:02.:48:09.

the imported. `` being quoted. You have identified a cost`of`living

:48:10.:48:13.

bobble but you don't have a solution. You cannot control prices.

:48:14.:48:22.

We could sort out the energy market and make costs transparent. We have

:48:23.:48:29.

promises on youth unemployment, to try to get people back into work.

:48:30.:48:36.

But actually you do not have any more answers than the coalition.

:48:37.:48:42.

They are at least lifting people out of tax and freezing council tax. We

:48:43.:48:49.

are saying that if they had not put VAT... But you cannot tackle the

:48:50.:48:57.

crisis anymore than the Conservatives Liberal Democrats.

:48:58.:49:04.

There is still incredibly high unemployment. High youth

:49:05.:49:06.

unemployment. The government done nothing to tackle it. We need to get

:49:07.:49:13.

people back into real jobs. A massive surge in part`time

:49:14.:49:17.

employment. Zero hours employment. People cannot plan or budget. The

:49:18.:49:23.

government are simply not doing anything to tackle those things. We

:49:24.:49:31.

held about creations of jobs but if those on low paid as evil contract,

:49:32.:49:37.

people will not feel any better. `` low paid or zero contract. JCB

:49:38.:49:44.

announced this weekend a big employment rights. We are seeing

:49:45.:49:53.

proper jobs in engineering and manufacturing. But they are still at

:49:54.:50:02.

low paid or zero hours. Some people like that, it fits in with their

:50:03.:50:08.

lifestyle. But we're getting back to proper jobs in manufacturing. Nissan

:50:09.:50:14.

are producing a car every 30 seconds in Sunderland. Weird again making

:50:15.:50:19.

things as a country. `` we are again. What more can you do?

:50:20.:50:30.

Anything that can be done to help, we do not argue against that. But

:50:31.:50:36.

some of the proposals are not coming in for a couple of years. Action is

:50:37.:50:40.

not being taken now to get young people back into work. We want them

:50:41.:50:46.

back into work now. Then they have the money to spend in the economy. I

:50:47.:50:54.

don't think Labour has explained properly how employers will suddenly

:50:55.:50:59.

be able to give young people jobs. It is being funded by a tax on

:51:00.:51:09.

bankers bonuses. But this is something down`the`line, in the

:51:10.:51:14.

future. We welcome anything that will help, but we need action now.

:51:15.:51:18.

There simply isn't anything happening at the moment to help

:51:19.:51:24.

people back into proper jobs. Yes, Nissan is a tremendous example, but

:51:25.:51:31.

we also lost jobs with in power. `` npower. So there have been losses as

:51:32.:51:41.

well as good news stories. Not enough now. Cuts in national

:51:42.:51:48.

insurance contributions are real incentives to get the bill employed.

:51:49.:51:57.

`` people. We can see how consistently wrong Ed Balls has been

:51:58.:52:03.

about everything. Remember plan B? They tried it in France. It is

:52:04.:52:10.

bitterly not working. Let's not give the keys back to the people who

:52:11.:52:12.

crashed the car last time. should it cost to call the local

:52:13.:52:20.

council? Some are using premium rate phone lines. With that story and the

:52:21.:52:27.

rest of the week's news, he is 60 seconds.

:52:28.:52:34.

Granted Davey has confirmed Northumberland council will change

:52:35.:52:38.

its policy after criticism of union rate contact numbers. `` premium. We

:52:39.:52:52.

will have ten local numbers. We are hoping to introduce a mobile number.

:52:53.:52:58.

So that people with pay`as`you`go contracts can make cheaper phone

:52:59.:53:04.

calls. There are plans in Cumbria to withdraw subsidies from loss`making

:53:05.:53:07.

bus routes to save ?2 million every year. At a local MP warned that some

:53:08.:53:22.

rural residents will be left out. And the exhibition of the

:53:23.:53:26.

Lindisfarne Gospels in Durham brought more than ?8 million of

:53:27.:53:31.

benefits to the region, attracting 100,000 people from 58 countries.

:53:32.:53:39.

Bosses now, and it is not as Cumbria, other local authorities are

:53:40.:53:49.

cutting back subsidies. `` buses. Can you explain why some rural

:53:50.:53:53.

people will no longer be able to get a bus out of the village? 45% of the

:53:54.:54:00.

failures come from subsidy. `` fares. That is because of a ground

:54:01.:54:07.

which is like a fuel subsidy. In addition, we have pensioners

:54:08.:54:14.

concessionary fare schemes. The problem is that this is a dead hand

:54:15.:54:21.

way of subsidising. It does not encourage environmentally friendly

:54:22.:54:27.

vehicles. It concentrates on city centres and not frugal areas. ``

:54:28.:54:38.

ruble. `` Rowell. The reality is that services are being cut which

:54:39.:54:41.

will affect the country certainly able with a poorer service. At the

:54:42.:54:48.

moment this is a blanket subsidy from services. That may mean a

:54:49.:54:51.

service that is running well does not media subsidy subsidies getting

:54:52.:54:54.

one. Whereas a ruler and service is being cut.

:54:55.:55:00.

This could be late for people that have lost their bosses. Local

:55:01.:55:10.

authorities are having a very difficult time. Having to make cuts

:55:11.:55:16.

for the reasons we just lead to. We have ruled the subsidies into the

:55:17.:55:25.

general and that councils get. In some cases, North Yorks Company at

:55:26.:55:28.

decided to cut services that are underused or bad sometimes weekend

:55:29.:55:35.

and evening services. Robert says councils across the North have to

:55:36.:55:38.

make difficult choices. There is a lot of money going in. They should

:55:39.:55:44.

think more intelligently about this. The cuts are quite dramatic and

:55:45.:55:50.

having impact across the piece. But in rural areas the service is

:55:51.:55:53.

absolutely crucial. How did people get to work? There should be some

:55:54.:56:03.

form of protection control. You would like less money spent

:56:04.:56:08.

subsidising buses in Oregon areas? `` urban. That doesn't happen

:56:09.:56:17.

because in the cities there are more people, they are used more often.

:56:18.:56:22.

Into line and were it has been put out to consultation and are still

:56:23.:56:26.

moving forward. `` in time and we are. `` Tyne Wear. That is

:56:27.:56:36.

something I particularly keen on. What is the answer for councils? The

:56:37.:56:47.

problem... The problem that councils face is that they have a number of

:56:48.:56:51.

responsibilities which are statutory. Education, social

:56:52.:56:54.

services, financing pensioners concessionary schemes. So it does

:56:55.:57:01.

mean that the discretionary amount that is left is under pressure. 45%

:57:02.:57:08.

of the money going into the gearbox is government subsidy. `` farebox.

:57:09.:57:19.

We need corporation with a bus companies. This is confrontation. It

:57:20.:57:27.

is not. It is about regulating the service and moderating profits. The

:57:28.:57:30.

companies are making very high profits. We would be happy with the

:57:31.:57:36.

London model. Equality contract of sorts, it works very well. The other

:57:37.:57:45.

big story of the week, the floods which have caused damage and

:57:46.:57:48.

disruption to communities across the North. Homes were evacuated after

:57:49.:57:56.

the Tees burst its banks. One of the worst affected areas was Whitby.

:57:57.:57:59.

Parts of the town centre were underwater. The harbour area was

:58:00.:58:06.

plunged into darkness. Power supplies failed. Are you satisfied

:58:07.:58:17.

that the way this was handled? We are very pleased that the Met Office

:58:18.:58:23.

and environment agency alerted the ball very well. There was no loss of

:58:24.:58:27.

life. The emergency services were exemplary. Even when the power went

:58:28.:58:33.

off they were able to help people. But they will be a long`term problem

:58:34.:58:38.

with the number of businesses affected. But in Scarborough and

:58:39.:58:44.

Whitby. Over the weekend I have been visiting a number that have been

:58:45.:58:48.

affected. I will make sure, as an MP, that if they have problems with

:58:49.:58:52.

insurance of compensation, that I can intercede. We keep hearing about

:58:53.:59:01.

these extreme weather events. Do we have to Jaaskelainen and bail them?

:59:02.:59:14.

`` do we have to just grin and bear it? The problem would have been

:59:15.:59:21.

worse had investment not when Anne. But we are not King Canute. This was

:59:22.:59:28.

an exceptionally high tide. A number of factors meant it was particularly

:59:29.:59:32.

high. A number of properties that could not defend the did get water

:59:33.:59:36.

damage and there would be a clean`up operation.

:59:37.:59:40.

That is all from us. It is getting close to Christmas. You will never

:59:41.:59:52.

get your presents wrapped and to give but if we are there to distract

:59:53.:59:55.

you so you're taking a break. We will be back

:59:56.:59:57.

Tomorrow, the House of Commons will pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela.

:59:58.:00:22.

Our nation has lost its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.

:00:23.:00:41.

The first thing I ever did that involved an issue or policy, or

:00:42.:00:49.

politics, was protest against apartheid.

:00:50.:00:55.

I think his greatest legacy, to South Africa and to the world, is

:00:56.:01:05.

the emphasis which he has always put on the need for a conciliation, on

:01:06.:01:16.

the importance of human rights. He also made us understand that we can

:01:17.:01:22.

change the world. We can change the world by changing attitudes, by

:01:23.:01:25.

changing perceptions. For this reason, I would like to pay him

:01:26.:01:31.

tribute as a great human being, who raised the standard of humanity.

:01:32.:01:43.

Thank you for the gift of Madiba. Thank you for what he has enabled us

:01:44.:01:47.

to know we can become. We are joined now by the Labour MP

:01:48.:02:05.

Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not one after he was released from

:02:06.:02:09.

prison in 1990. He went as an election observer for the first one

:02:10.:02:14.

person, one-vote in South Africa. I would guess, of all the people you

:02:15.:02:19.

met in your life, you must have been the most impressive and biggest

:02:20.:02:23.

influence? He was extraordinary. He had just come out of prison, 28

:02:24.:02:28.

years in reason. He had seen a lot of his colleagues tortured, blown up

:02:29.:02:34.

and killed. He was entirely without bitterness. That is what came

:02:35.:02:37.

across. That was key to his achievement, to achieve a peaceful

:02:38.:02:42.

transition. Everybody thought that if you have black majority rule, you

:02:43.:02:46.

might have a bloodbath. It's down to Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I

:02:47.:02:51.

remember FW de Klerk saying that Mandela was the key to getting a

:02:52.:02:58.

peaceful transition. Absolutely the key, an amazing man. London was one

:02:59.:03:05.

of the centres, people talked about it as being the other centre of the

:03:06.:03:08.

anti-apartheid struggle. That anti-apartheid struggle in London,

:03:09.:03:13.

it had an effect on black politics in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were

:03:14.:03:18.

black and politically active at the time, the apartheid struggle, the

:03:19.:03:23.

struggle against white supremacy in South Africa, was very important.

:03:24.:03:27.

Whatever your colour, the anti-apartheid struggle,

:03:28.:03:33.

Whatever your colour, the campaign. We have the 50th

:03:34.:03:36.

anniversary of Kennedy's assassination. Mr Mandela's death.

:03:37.:03:40.

We are kind of running out of people that inspired us? I will never

:03:41.:03:44.

forget where I was when I saw him come out of prison, hand-in-hand

:03:45.:03:49.

with the women, I might add. If you have spent your whole teenage years

:03:50.:03:53.

and 20 is boycotting, marching, picketing, to see him actually come

:03:54.:03:58.

out was amazing. Do you think it was more exciting to meet you or the

:03:59.:04:06.

Spice Girls? I think the Spice Girls. What did the Labour

:04:07.:04:13.

backbenchers think about Ed Balls's performance after the Autumn

:04:14.:04:17.

Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a brilliant man, but I think even he

:04:18.:04:21.

would say that it was not his best performance. But if you look at the

:04:22.:04:25.

polls, the public liked the points he made. The backbenchers were

:04:26.:04:29.

quiet, there was something wrong? I noticed that. It was like a wall of

:04:30.:04:36.

sound, deliberately. They know that under pressure his stamina might

:04:37.:04:39.

come back and it is difficult for him. That is what they were trying

:04:40.:04:44.

to incite. I have had experience first hand, a look at all of these

:04:45.:04:48.

anonymous and sometimes not anonymous quotes in the media. The

:04:49.:04:54.

spinning has begun against him? This is the party of

:04:55.:05:03.

spinning has begun against him? This matter what the Tories say, we can

:05:04.:05:06.

say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to

:05:07.:05:12.

Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he

:05:13.:05:17.

wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless

:05:18.:05:22.

enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid

:05:23.:05:26.

of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed

:05:27.:05:31.

Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the

:05:32.:05:36.

right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed

:05:37.:05:40.

Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview

:05:41.:05:44.

because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument

:05:45.:05:48.

with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just

:05:49.:05:53.

about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to

:05:54.:05:59.

look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of

:06:00.:06:03.

living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than

:06:04.:06:08.

that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective

:06:09.:06:11.

member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown

:06:12.:06:17.

years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys

:06:18.:06:20.

that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to

:06:21.:06:25.

replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,

:06:26.:06:28.

Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the

:06:29.:06:31.

Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about

:06:32.:06:34.

shifting tectonic plates, think he would do it. Talk about

:06:35.:06:38.

wouldn't it? But it is a step too far. Ed Balls would not be too

:06:39.:06:44.

happy. It is not something you would want to do lightly. That sounds a

:06:45.:06:55.

bit of a threat. Not from you. I can't see Ed Balls magnanimously

:06:56.:06:59.

retreating and say, go on, Alistair Darling, take the job I have been

:07:00.:07:04.

after all career. Where do you put him? Do you make him a middle

:07:05.:07:07.

ranking business or welfare secretary? He wouldn't do that. If

:07:08.:07:13.

you sack him, he would retreat to the backbenchers. He might take up

:07:14.:07:18.

knitting and practices piano scales, or he might have a blood feud with

:07:19.:07:21.

Ed Miliband. I don't know which could be. You look back to when he

:07:22.:07:28.

was schools Secretary, you could feel he was constantly fuming. I

:07:29.:07:31.

think he is better inside the tent, looking out, than the other way

:07:32.:07:35.

around. The thing one Labour strategist said to me was that he is

:07:36.:07:38.

too much looking into the rear-view mirror, when it comes to economic

:07:39.:07:43.

policy. He needs to look ahead through the windscreen. That had

:07:44.:07:49.

some resonance? He was at the centre of Labour's economic policy-making

:07:50.:07:53.

from the mid-90s. So it's hard for him but he has to look forward.

:07:54.:07:58.

There is an interesting comparison with 2009. Gordon Brown got in

:07:59.:08:01.

trouble when he said the choice is between Labour investment and Tory

:08:02.:08:05.

cuts. Everybody knew it was between Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other

:08:06.:08:09.

words, he was not acknowledging reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can

:08:10.:08:13.

say it is the wrong sort of recovery, but there is a recovery.

:08:14.:08:17.

Does he not need to absorb that punch and say there is a recovery,

:08:18.:08:20.

then people will listen to him? Possibly. We know that the

:08:21.:08:26.

macroeconomics are looking better. We also know people are not

:08:27.:08:31.

experiencing it as a recovery in living standards. No one, not even

:08:32.:08:36.

Tories, really believe that David Cameron knows what it is like for

:08:37.:08:40.

middle-income people to live normal lives. Living standards is

:08:41.:08:44.

particularly powerful because of the composition of the government? Don't

:08:45.:08:47.

go away. This time last year we ambushed our political panel with a

:08:48.:08:52.

quiz. They didn't come out of it smelling of roses, but they did come

:08:53.:08:56.

out rather smelly. Will the coalition still be in place

:08:57.:09:02.

a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I say definitely as well. From now,

:09:03.:09:09.

one year, will we know the date of the European referendum? Yes. No. I

:09:10.:09:16.

say no as well. How much growth will there be? Less than 1%. Father

:09:17.:09:23.

Christmas is less qualified than me, but I will go for one. I will go for

:09:24.:09:30.

a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a third of that. I am with you, and

:09:31.:09:37.

1%. We didn't do too badly. What will growth be next year? I will

:09:38.:09:42.

remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got

:09:43.:09:46.

it wrong last year. Well, they went down in March and then went back in

:09:47.:09:55.

December. I'm going to go under and claim credit where it's higher. I'm

:09:56.:09:58.

going to say 1%. Deliberately get it wrong. Given our record, if we say

:09:59.:10:04.

there is going to be spectacular growth, does it mean we're going to

:10:05.:10:08.

go into recession? There is incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%,

:10:09.:10:15.

because the housing market in London is rocketing. It would be closer to

:10:16.:10:22.

3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this

:10:23.:10:30.

time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, I value my life. Will UKIP mean the

:10:31.:10:37.

European elections, by which I mean have the highest percentage of the

:10:38.:10:44.

vote? Yes. Second behind Labour. Second behind Labour. Will Alex

:10:45.:10:50.

Salmond win the independence referendum? No, but it will be

:10:51.:10:57.

closer than we think. No, unless they do something catastrophic like

:10:58.:11:00.

let Cameron debate him. Too close to call. Controversial. How many

:11:01.:11:08.

Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than

:11:09.:11:17.

anyone thinks. The entire population of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel

:11:18.:11:21.

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, I'm confident.

:11:22.:11:26.

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, your magazine. Not

:11:27.:11:27.

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, but a lot here already will

:11:28.:11:31.

normalise and be counted into figures. Too many for most

:11:32.:11:37.

right-wing commentators. I think quite a few will come, but not the

:11:38.:11:41.

kind of numbers that made such a huge difference. This time,

:11:42.:11:51.

everybody is open. They do like to speak English, that is the reason

:11:52.:11:55.

they want to come. We'll all three of you still be here by this time

:11:56.:12:01.

next year? Yes. Would you recommend that? Yes, keep them. And he has

:12:02.:12:08.

lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If you can keep affording me, I will be

:12:09.:12:15.

here. I hope so, it sounds like you have a firing squad outside. I hope

:12:16.:12:21.

so, maybe you will find some true talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they?

:12:22.:12:29.

Let me put this to you, I think you will agree. The coalition will not

:12:30.:12:33.

break now, this side of the election next year? There will not be... They

:12:34.:12:39.

will not go their own ways by this time next year? Of next year, maybe

:12:40.:12:46.

just after. Early 2015. This side of the election? What is the UKIP view?

:12:47.:12:52.

I don't think there is an advantage to either of them. If the Lib Dems

:12:53.:12:58.

pulled out, they would look like there were a lodger in the Tory

:12:59.:12:59.

house of government. there were a lodger in the Tory

:13:00.:13:03.

would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think

:13:04.:13:07.

that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick

:13:08.:13:11.

Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all

:13:12.:13:18.

of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the

:13:19.:13:20.

grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force

:13:21.:13:24.

that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.

:13:25.:13:28.

I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives

:13:29.:13:36.

you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the

:13:37.:13:42.

first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the

:13:43.:13:48.

Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.

:13:49.:13:51.

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