19/11/2017 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


19/11/2017

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Morning everyone, and welcome

to the Sunday Politics.

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I'm Sarah Smith.

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And this is your guide

to all the big stories that

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are shaping politics this weekend,

and a few of the smaller ones too.

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Philip Hammond is getting ready

to deliver his latest Budget

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on Wednesday and he's not short

of advice - to spend more,

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show restraint, even

to stop being an Eyore -

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but can he change the direction

of the country and his government?

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Conservative Party darling

Jacob Rees-Mogg has

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some advice of his own.

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He thinks the Chancellor

is being far too gloomy about Brexit

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- he joins me live to explain why.

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The former Leave campaign leader,

Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

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with pro-EU campaigner

Alastair Campbell, after taking

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a trip to her native Germany

to speak to businesses

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about Brexit.

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And, as we wait to find out what's

on the menu for this week's budget,

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we're in a diner off

the A1 in Peterborough,

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finding out who people most trust

with the economy -

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Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?

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Here, new Metro trains

or cash for schools -

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what might the budget provide

for the North?

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And the North East

councils which want to

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deliver lower gas and electricity

bills in their areas.

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All that coming up in the programme.

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And with me for for all of it,

three journalists who've promised

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not to show off like Michael Gove

by using any long economicky words -

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although I'm not sure they really

know that many anyway -

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it's Tom Newton Dunn,

Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

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Let's take a look at the big

political stories making the news

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this Sunday morning,

and as you might expect there's

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plenty of speculation

about what might or not might be

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in Philip Hammond's Budget.

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The Chancellor is promising a big

investment in new technology,

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including driverless cars -

which could be on the road by 2021.

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He's been interviewed

in the Sunday Times,

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where he talks about plans to reach

the target of building

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300,000 homes every year,

or the equivalent of a city

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the size of Leeds.

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That paper speculates that he's

attempting to turn from "fiscal

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Phil" into "hopeful Hammond"

as he tries to set out

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a vision for the country,

not just a list of numbers.

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The Sunday Telegraph thinks that

Mr Hammond is planning to offer

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a pay rise to nurses as part

of a bid to take on Labour.

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But that hasn't impressed

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

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He's spoken to a number of papers

and is calling for an emergency

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budget to invest in public services

and help struggling households.

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So that's a taste of what you might

hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

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and Mr McDonnell have both been

appearing this morning

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on the Andrew Marr Show.

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I think Britain has a very

bright future ahead of it,

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and we have to embrace

the opportunities that

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a post-Brexit world will offer.

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They will be opportunities that

are based on huge change,

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huge technological evolution.

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It's not always going to be easy,

but the British people have shown

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time and time again that we're up

for these challenges.

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For many people out there,

this is a depression.

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We've had people whose wages

have been cut by 10%.

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Nurses, for example.

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We've had people who are now...

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1.25 million food parcels handed out

in the sixth richest

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country in the world.

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That's what I call a recession

for large numbers of people.

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We will be talking about Labour and

their economic policies in a moment,

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but let's start with what we might

expect from the budget. We will talk

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to our panel of political observers.

Philip Hammond is under pressure to

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set out a bold vision and reset the

government's programme. Can we

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expect that?

No, we can't. We have

heard enough from the Chancellor

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across various broadcast and his

article in the Sunday Times. I think

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we will not be getting a bold

budget. His precise words short... A

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short time ago were a balanced

budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

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They desperately want something to

go out and shout about, something to

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capture people's imagination, and do

big and bold things, like how on

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earth are they going to build those

new 300,000 houses a year? There are

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good reasons why he has chosen what

appears to be a pretty staid,

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Conservative budget, and that is

that they are probably unable to get

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anything bold through Parliament.

His capital is so low among Tory

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MPs. If you have a minority

government, it is tricky.

We have

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seen ministers on programmes like

this in the last few weeks putting

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in the bids for what they would like

spending on, whether it be payment

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for nurses or parliament. Would he

struggled to get something radical

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through the Commons?

Big ideas cost

money. That's the problem. Bold

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ideas are controversial. In some

ways, Tory MPs are asking their

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Chancellor to do the impossible.

Government is already doing

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something big and bold, which is

Brexit. That has implications for

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how much money is available, how

many risks you want to take with

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everything else. What is crucial is

that he demonstrates a reputation

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for competence. The reputation that

the Conservative government has for

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economic competence, that many

people prefer them to Labour on the

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issue of economic competence. The

worst thing he could do is come up

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with a big, bold idea that

unravelled quickly. What they

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absolutely don't want is to come up

with an exciting idea that falls

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apart three days after the budget.

He is under pressure from

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Brexiteers, who are suspicious of

him. Does he have to offer them

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something?

Part of his problem is he

has to offer so many different

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people different things. This is

Philip Hammond trying to be and

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dynamic.

It is hard to tell

sometimes.

At least in theoretical

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terms. His longer-term difficulty is

that, if you look at the economic

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cycle, we are getting to a point

where we are probably overdue, if

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you put Brexit to one side, overdue

some kind of correction or downturn,

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if you look what has happened to

asset prices globally. What will be

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worrying for the Treasury is, just

as everyone is saying we should turn

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on the taps and build this or that,

we might be at the top of a cycle,

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and the Treasury will want to lose

something in the armoury in terms of

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probably growing the deficit if

there are economic difficulties in

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the next two years, and then there

is Brexit as well.

It sounds

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impossible.

I think so. Talking to

his friends and colleagues over the

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last few days, he had to make a

call, which was precisely how much

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can I get away with, with my

political capital being as low as it

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is, with the mixed problems he had

at the last budget, and a lot of the

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party disliking his approach to

Brexit. He is damned if he is,

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damned if he doesn't. Universal

Credit, we are expecting a reduction

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in the time it takes to wait,

business rates, affected by high

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inflation... I think we will see a

problem fixing budget which will

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probably do quite a lot of important

spadework in many areas.

We will

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pick up on some of this later in the

programme.

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Let's speak now to the Conservative

MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

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he helpfully launched an alternative

"budget for Brexit" and advised

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the Chancellor to be less gloomy

about the consequences

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of leaving the EU.

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Thank you for joining us. Your

alternative budget is pretty

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radical. Almost half corporation

tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

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London market. It seems you are

advocating the opposite from what we

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will hear from your Chancellor on

Wednesday.

There are two parts to

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the proposals I suggested. One is

that we should show that after we

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have left the European Union, the UK

is open to the rest of the world. It

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is about opening up to the rest of

the world. Secondly, looking at the

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modelling that has been done by the

Treasury and some other forecasters,

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which has been so comprehensively

wrong. The forecasts made about what

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would happen after Brexit have

turned out to be hopelessly false.

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The team at Cardiff University have

done some modelling based on the

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classical economic principles and

what happens if you move to free

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trade that would be very positive

for the economy.

You are predicting

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a Brexit dividend of £135 billion,

which sounds fantastic. Why are you

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right, and everybody else, including

the Bank of England and the

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Institute for Fiscal Studies, why

are they all wrong?

It depends on

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the type of modelling. The modelling

that have been done by the Treasury

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have been based on gravity models,

which work on the basis of the

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nearness of the market and the size

of the economy you are trading with.

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These have been wrong in the past.

They predicted that if we joined the

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euro, trade would grow by 300%. That

was then revised down to 200%, but

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it is fantasyland. The model I am

working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

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who has a record of getting these

things right. He was right about the

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exchange rate mechanism, right about

the euro.

Being right in the past

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doesn't mean you are right about the

future. Why do you think the

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Treasury will not pick up the same

numbers, if this is so obvious to

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you?

I think the Treasury was

humiliated by the errors in its

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forecast prior to Brexit, and is

trying to defend its position. The

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short-term economic consequences of

a vote to leave was one of the most

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dishonest documents to come out of

the Treasury, purely a piece of

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political propaganda. They are

wounded by that and sticking to the

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same script, rather than looking at

other forecasts and other experts.

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You think the governor of the Bank

of England is an enemy of Brexit,

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and it sounds like you think the

Treasury is opposed to it. As the

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Chancellor fallen under their spell

as well, and been persuaded to be an

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enemy of Brexit?

I have admiration

the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

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his predecessor, was the architect

of Project Fear. He was too close to

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the Bank of England and lost his

independence. That is what needs to

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change. It is an opportunity in the

budget for Philip Hammond to show he

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is putting aside the Treasury's

mistakes in the past. It is very

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encouraging what he is saying this

morning, about a more positive

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approach to Brexit.

Lord Lawson has

accused Philip Hammond of being very

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close to sabotage on Brexit. He says

we need a can-do man at the Treasury

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and not a prophet of doom.

I think

that Philip Hammond is an

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exceptionally intelligent man, a

very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

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thing to have a Chancellor who is

serious minded and steady, rather

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than one who is a showman and uses

the Exchequer to interfere in

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absolutely everything.

I have a lot

of confidence in the Chancellor.

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When you launched your budget for

Brexit, you said the government has

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to deliver the £350 million for the

NHS that was delivered during the

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referendum, even though you didn't

think that promise should have been

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made. Is that something they now

need to deliver wrong?

It is. This

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only happens once we have left.

Politicians have to recognise that

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voters don't look at the small print

of electoral policies. If you put

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£350 million on the side of a bus

and say it may be available for the

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NHS, it is reasonable for people to

think that is a promise. Brexit was

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won by the Leave campaign, so it it

is important that they deliver on

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that promise. Politicians must keep

faith with voters and deliver on

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implied promises, as well as ones

that are set out in detail.

The

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Cabinet will move on to talk about

the Brexit bill this week, and we

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understand they may need to come up

with more money to satisfy EU

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demands. The more money spent on

that is less money available for

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things like spending on the NHS. Are

you worried about the size of the

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exit bill?

You have your finger on

the important point. The government

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will have to choose whether to give

lots of money to the European Union,

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or whether to spend money on UK

public services, and that will be

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part of the negotiation. On all

these issues, it comes down to

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choice is the government makes. I

would encourage the government to

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choose our own domestic public

services rather than expensive

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schemes in continent or Europe.

Why

are you advocating that the

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government should spend up to £2.5

billion on a no deal scenario?

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It is important that we are ready to

leave in the event of no deal. If we

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left with no deal we would on

current figures still be saving the

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remains of 18 billion so we would be

saving 15 and a half billion against

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paying for the financial framework.

To show we're ready on day one would

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be money well spent and most would

be needed any way. We need to have

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new customs arrangements in place

even if it is not for a no deal

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situation.

There are suggestions

that the Government might back down

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on the idea of putting the time and

date of leaving the EU on the face

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of the bill. Would you be Exxon

certained if that was -- concerned

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if that was remove prd the bill?

It

is in Article 50, unless Article 50

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is extended by the Council of Europe

we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

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makes accepts that should be the

same in -- sense that should be in

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same in domestic law. But that is a

secondary concern from my point of

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view. It is important that we leave

on that date.

Stay there if you

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would.

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We're joined in the studio

by the former minister

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Stephen Hammond.

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He's no relation to the Chancellor,

but he is a member

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of the Treasury Select Committee

and he's one of the Tory MPs named

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as "Brexit mutineers"

by the Daily Telegraph

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this week - lucky him.

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I'm assured you're no relation to

the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

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on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying.

How important is it to you as a

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rebel that the Government does put

the date on.

I agree with Jacob it

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is in the Article 50 process, the

key reason it is important is the

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negotiations look like they're going

to be tricky and longer than we

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expected and it may well be that we

are still negotiating up until March

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2019. We could have a short couple

of weeks period of extension. Why do

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harm to the economy by falling out

on a precise time? If those

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negotiations need to be extended.

They won't go on for more than a

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couple of weeks, because there will

be elections in Europe in June 2019

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and there is no chance of a new

commission or Parliament dealing

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with this. Giving it flexibility and

with this flexibility the government

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said it wants flexibility in

negotiations, why give all the

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advantage to the other side? Part of

that was evidenced yesterday by

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somebody suggesting they will ask

for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

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be suspended. That is as a result of

putting the date on the bill.

You

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did not agree with the Brexit

committee and think it is important

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that we set the date and time?

I

think it is perfectly reasonable to

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set the date and time and I think

these negotiations fill the time

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available. The United States and

Australia agreed a free trade deal

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between April 2003 and February

2004. These things don't need to be

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interm Knabl if both sides want to

agree. I think the British

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electorate would be very concerned

if nearly three years after the vote

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to leave, we still hadn't left. I

think most people expected that we

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would have left by now. The

negotiations realistically to get

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through the approval of the European

Parliament and so on need to be

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completed by at the end of next

year, going up to the last minute I

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don't think is real is tick.

To move

on to talk about a trade deal and

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getting that done, the EU need to

agree to move on and we need to

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settle the divorce, cabinet are

going to be talking about the amount

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that needs to be spent on that,

Stephen what manned, are you happy

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for the Government to offer more?

I

hope that the Government will stick

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to the Florence speech in terms of

ensuring that we fulfil our

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liabilities and obligations. I'm not

clear exactly whether that is 20

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billion or 40 billion and I'm not

sure the government is. If part of

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the divorce bill is then some

settlement for getting the trade

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deal, we will need to examine that

carefully.

Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

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that might spark another war in the

party if the cabinet suggest they're

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prepared to pay more?

I think we

need to go back to what you said,

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that the - the EU said they want us

to settle the money first. The

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Government doesn't need to follow

that. They need our money. If we

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don't pay any money for the final 21

months of the framework, the EU has

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about 20 billion pounds gap in its

finances and it has no legal

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requirement to borrow. So it

insolvents or the Germans and the

0:19:450:19:49

others pay more. So our position on

money is very strong and we

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shouldn't fall into the trap of

thinking just because Mr Barnier

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said it it is as if he has received

tablets of stone like Moses, he has

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not.

There is a sense that the

Government feels a mo generous offer

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would set a good tone, the kind of

approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

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suggests would not make for smooth

relations.

It probably wouldn't. But

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we have to be clear what we are

paying for and what we are getting.

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No one is suggesting we should hand

over money without proper scrutiny.

0:20:250:20:31

It may be appropriate to put money

to facilitate international trade to

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secure jobs. We have to be careful

about the analysis about what the

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scale and size of Brexit dividend is

and the size of payments will be.

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You mustn't confuse gross and net

and there is disagreement about some

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of the numbers.

On that, Jacob Rees

Mogg in his budget for Brexit

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suggests in five years time we would

have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

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you think it is real is tick.

He is

using some analysis that has some

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flaws. It is predicting a price drop

in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

0:21:110:21:18

drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is

predicting huge productivity gains,

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the likes of which we have not seen

in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

0:21:250:21:30

view on modellers there is evidence

that they weren't and if you go into

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the detail of the analysis, some of

the data is 14 years out of date.

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Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being

hopelessly optimistic?

I don't think

0:21:420:21:47

that right. I think the fall in

prices comes because you make the

0:21:470:21:52

economy more competitive and you

take away tariffs which reduces the

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price of food by 20%. That is a big

reduction. Bear in mind that the

0:21:560:22:03

biggest tariffs hit food, clothing

and foot wear that, harm the poorest

0:22:030:22:07

in society the most. The gains from

productivity come from is in

0:22:070:22:14

additional tariffs. Leading to other

saving and further investment I

0:22:140:22:22

think the modelling done by the

professor is as good as modelling

0:22:220:22:26

can be. That doesn't mean it is

infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:260:22:32

model is well known.

Michael Gove

was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:320:22:39

job of Chancellor by using long

words. Do you know any good long

0:22:390:22:45

economic words?

I don't think that

we want to get into this type of

0:22:450:22:49

business actually. I think all

Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:490:22:53

much agree on this, want to show as

united a front as we can manage.

0:22:530:22:59

There are differences on some

aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:22:590:23:03

individuals we want to stand

together and support the best

0:23:030:23:06

interests of the government.

Thank

you.

0:23:060:23:11

Brexit Secretary David Davis

was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:110:23:13

to win the support of business

leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:130:23:16

free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:160:23:18

He warned them against putting

'politics above prosperity'

0:23:180:23:21

and reportedly got a bit

of a frosty reception.

0:23:210:23:25

Well, the former Labour MP

Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:250:23:28

of the Vote Leave referendum

campaign.

0:23:280:23:30

We travelled with Gisela to Germany

to meet the business leaders

0:23:300:23:32

she says will help secure a good

trade deal for the UK.

0:23:320:23:35

Here's her film.

0:23:350:23:39

I was born and brought up

in this part of Germany,

0:23:450:23:48

and although I've lived in the UK

for the past 40 years,

0:23:480:23:52

and represented the constituency

of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:520:23:56

years, my family still live here,

and I've kept many links.

0:23:560:24:01

I was chair of Vote Leave,

and together with only a handful

0:24:030:24:06

of other Labour MPs,

we campaigned to leave

0:24:060:24:09

the European Union because we

thought the country would be

0:24:090:24:11

better off outside.

0:24:110:24:13

It's hard to remember now, but back

in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:130:24:17

the European Economic Community,

people thought that by joining

0:24:170:24:20

the club we would see the kind

of economic miracle Germany

0:24:200:24:25

experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:250:24:27

The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder"

would come to Britain.

0:24:270:24:29

But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:290:24:34

Within a few short years

of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:360:24:39

Germany had emerged as

the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:390:24:42

Germany's extraordinary

success is down to

0:24:420:24:44

the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:440:24:48

German Mittelstand is family

dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:480:24:53

long-term thinking, reliability,

are very important values.

0:24:530:24:59

Changing moods on a political

landscape and changing frameworks

0:24:590:25:02

are toxic for our way of doing

business, and we want

0:25:020:25:05

that to go away.

0:25:050:25:12

German business is not given

to making big political statements

0:25:120:25:16

out of step with government policy,

but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:160:25:19

positions, and it is clear

that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:190:25:22

with the United Kingdom.

0:25:220:25:25

BMW employs almost 90,000

people here in Germany,

0:25:250:25:28

and exports just under

1 million cars annually.

0:25:280:25:33

The UK is a vital market.

0:25:330:25:37

What we are really seeking right now

is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:370:25:41

because in our cycle of investment,

cycle of development,

0:25:410:25:46

it's about a seven-year or so period

that we look at,

0:25:460:25:50

but we are now, of course, starting

to think about what comes next,

0:25:500:25:54

and what we need to see now

is what is going to be

0:25:540:25:57

the trading relationship,

how are the logistics going to look,

0:25:570:26:00

what is going to be

the requirements for people

0:26:000:26:02

moving across the continent?

0:26:020:26:05

Because all of these things

are important to us today.

0:26:050:26:07

And, by the way, they will be just

as important tomorrow.

0:26:070:26:11

Berlin is well aware that

if the European Commission

0:26:110:26:13

is allowed to put up trade barriers

against Britain, it will be

0:26:130:26:17

German business, German consumers

and German employees

0:26:170:26:19

who will suffer.

0:26:190:26:24

TRANSLATION:

I think it's very

important that we complete

0:26:240:26:26

the first phase successfully.

0:26:260:26:28

The first phase of the negotiations,

which looks at the financial

0:26:280:26:31

consequences of Great Britain

leaving the EU.

0:26:310:26:34

And then it's not a question

of punishment payments.

0:26:340:26:37

It's about when you are part

of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:370:26:40

obligation and you want to leave

that, then of course it takes

0:26:400:26:44

a whole lot of obligations

which you have to deal with,

0:26:440:26:46

so both sides are satisfied and can

live with the consequences.

0:26:460:26:56

It isn't everyone's interests

for the UK to part on good terms.

0:26:560:27:00

Of course there was going to be

upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:27:000:27:03

but creating uncertainty over

the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:030:27:07

have a disruptive effect

on exports to UK markets.

0:27:070:27:12

Far better to have a sensible,

amicable negotiation that results

0:27:120:27:15

both sides being able to trade

together and work

0:27:150:27:18

together post-Brexit.

0:27:180:27:25

Markus Krall is managing

director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:250:27:26

and heads the Financial

Institution Industry Group.

0:27:260:27:28

Is it true to say that,

if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:280:27:33

then a good Brexit can actually

strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:330:27:35

the European Union and Germany?

0:27:350:27:37

It's absolutely true.

0:27:370:27:39

I think that this

is about two things.

0:27:390:27:42

One, about proving that

free trade is possible

0:27:420:27:47

between a European Union that is

smaller and a former member country.

0:27:470:27:50

If you don't prove that free

trade is possible there,

0:27:500:27:53

then the question becomes,

what is Europe standing for?

0:27:530:27:57

Number two is, I also

believe the free trade,

0:27:570:28:02

free market and democratic and less

bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:020:28:06

has chosen as the path

into the future is a role

0:28:060:28:09

model for Europe.

0:28:090:28:12

The time has come both

for the United Kingdom

0:28:120:28:15

and for the EU to be more clear

about what kind of

0:28:150:28:17

deal we can achieve.

0:28:170:28:20

Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:200:28:22

As long as we remain open to free

trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:220:28:25

we can arrive at something that

will benefit both sides.

0:28:250:28:31

But one thing's obvious -

if we are an open and free trading

0:28:310:28:34

economy, we've got one big

cheerleader on our side,

0:28:340:28:36

and that is German business.

0:28:360:28:42

That was Gisela Stuart

setting out her case

0:28:420:28:44

and we'll be hearing

from the opposite side

0:28:440:28:46

of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:460:28:48

Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio

now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:480:28:51

He used to work for Tony Blair

in Number 10, set up

0:28:510:28:54

the New European Newspaper

to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:540:28:56

and is so pro-European that at this

year's Labour conference

0:28:560:28:58

he was heard playing Ode

to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:28:580:29:00

Welcome both of you.

0:29:000:29:05

We will start with your point in the

film, that you think the German

0:29:050:29:10

business once the EU to offer the UK

a generous deal because it is in

0:29:100:29:15

their interests, yet the president

of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:150:29:19

said that defending the single

market must be the priority for the

0:29:190:29:24

EU, and another says that the

cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:240:29:30

states remains the highest priority.

The president of the CBI just after

0:29:300:29:36

the referendum said that it would be

in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:360:29:41

tariffs and trade barriers. On the

UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:410:29:49

full understanding that economic

interests are incredibly important,

0:29:490:29:53

that they are trying to cover

economic interests on the cohesion

0:29:530:30:00

of the 27. I think different

economic interests will raise the

0:30:000:30:04

head of different countries. The

German auto industry is as important

0:30:040:30:12

as the financial sector is here. The

banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:120:30:18

the big riffs which were going on is

that the E U is losing its second

0:30:180:30:24

biggest net contributor. Countries

like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:240:30:28

that is a free open market. There

are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:280:30:35

wants to become more protectionist,

and that is a bad thing.

Looking at

0:30:350:30:39

the film there with the Jacob

Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:390:30:47

side of leave you are, it is

delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:470:30:52

thinking. You could find a

businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:520:30:56

good for Germany. The vast bulk of

British businesses think this is a

0:30:560:31:00

disaster, as do the vast bulk of

European businesses. One of the

0:31:000:31:05

delusions on which they ran their

campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:050:31:10

us more than we need them. That is

not true.

Be you self about £80

0:31:100:31:16

billion more in goods and services

into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:160:31:21

Germany has one of the biggest

deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:210:31:25

Of course it is, but it is a myth

that they need us more than we need

0:31:250:31:31

them. The damage that will be done

to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:310:31:38

be frank, where these negotiations

are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:380:31:43

end up with a bad deal and dumber or

no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:430:31:50

deal is a catastrophe.

You are

setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:500:31:57

there to begin with and knocking

them down. Delusional.

35 billion,

0:31:570:32:04

the Brexit bonus.

If we had a

referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:040:32:09

decision. I know you don't like it

and that a lot of business would

0:32:090:32:12

have preferred to stay with the

status quo. We have had the

0:32:120:32:17

referendum. Undermining political

institutions is in no one's

0:32:170:32:22

interests. It is functioning

democracies which lead to economic

0:32:220:32:28

stability.

Theresa May fought an

election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:280:32:35

was rejected.

As we heard from BMW,

there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:350:32:48

There will be elections, European

elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:480:32:53

change of the Commission and the

parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:530:32:58

to implement the mandate for the

referendum which Parliament voted

0:32:580:33:02

for. So rather than you undermining

this country, why don't you work

0:33:020:33:09

together to get the best deal?

Because we totally disagree.

You

0:33:090:33:13

don't want a good deal?

I'm in

favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:130:33:19

give them some advice as to how they

get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:190:33:25

cabinet that has an agreed strategy.

18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:250:33:31

I am not undermining a deal. I am

continuing to pose questions about

0:33:310:33:36

what they are trying to do and how

they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:360:33:42

democracy. Democracy is the ability

for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:420:33:47

its job properly, and the public, to

keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:470:33:51

to change their mind, having the

right to do that.

You were trying to

0:33:510:33:58

encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to

play hardball with the UK.

I am on

0:33:580:34:02

the side of the UK, and I am worried

that if we go down the path that we

0:34:020:34:08

are being taken down, and Theresa

May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:080:34:12

of them, this shambolic path, we are

going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:120:34:17

damage to the country we love. I

don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:170:34:22

Authority. I care about Britain. --

I don't care about the European

0:34:220:34:28

Union. If every lorry going into the

UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:280:34:36

minutes, we would create an instant

17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:360:34:42

just don't care...

I am not these

people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:420:34:52

either decide that you are

implementing a democratic decision

0:34:520:34:56

of a referendum that was called and

over 17 million voted.

You will not

0:34:560:35:02

stop me debating it. Just as Nigel

Farage...

Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:020:35:10

Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not

Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:100:35:21

Germany to punish the United

Kingdom.

They are behaving

0:35:210:35:26

reasonably.

There is a battle of

protectionism and free market going

0:35:260:35:30

on. If we implement this properly,

give businesses the kind of

0:35:300:35:36

incentives they want, we can get a

good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:360:35:42

You are driven by wishful thinking.

Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:420:35:49

business will intervene to prevent

things like tariffs being put in

0:35:490:35:53

place? They are leaving it a bit

late to put pressure on.

You will

0:35:530:35:58

find that business is laying out the

kind of things they need to get

0:35:580:36:01

those deals. I can find as much

fault with the speed of the

0:36:010:36:06

progress, but what I really do

resent is that you are actually

0:36:060:36:10

encouraging other countries to

undermine...

Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:100:36:19

out in support of the Irish

Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:190:36:22

time with Tony Blair and his team on

the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:220:36:26

people who are driving this hard

Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:260:36:30

still no answer on how you do Brexit

in our island without a hard border.

0:36:300:36:36

I think the Irish Taoiseach is right

to call out the government on the

0:36:360:36:44

incompetence and the fact they have

not thought it through.

You accept

0:36:440:36:48

the result of the referendum and the

fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:480:36:53

I accept the result of the

referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:530:36:58

the country will definitely leave,

because the country is entitled to

0:36:580:37:03

change its mind. As the chaos and

costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:030:37:08

to change its mind and will change

its mind.

There is no evidence at

0:37:080:37:13

the moment.

Come out with me!

Allow

me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:130:37:22

a changing of mind happening, a

crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:220:37:28

fought five elections and I have won

five elections. I have probably

0:37:280:37:34

spoken to more people like you.

You

may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:340:37:39

the road with me...

40% of the

population in the middle just want

0:37:390:37:45

us to get on with it. What that film

showed is that if you want to make

0:37:450:37:51

it a self-fulfilling prophecy that

it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:510:37:56

want to implement a deal that is

good for British jobs. The rest of

0:37:560:38:02

the world is changing in terms of

technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:020:38:09

hasn't even got a government, and

nobody is laughing about that.

And

0:38:090:38:15

they are stable without a

government!

Let's leave it there.

0:38:150:38:19

It's coming up to 11.40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:38:190:38:22

Coming up on the programme,

we'll be looking at the latest

0:38:220:38:24

opinion polls and we'll bring

you the results of our moodbox

0:38:240:38:27

asking whether Phllip Hammond

or John McDonnell should be running

0:38:270:38:29

the economy.

0:38:290:38:37

Hello!

0:38:370:38:39

And a warm welcome to your

local politics show.

0:38:390:38:41

Now, it's nice and cosy

in the studio, but over the course

0:38:410:38:45

of this weekend and the last week

or two the cold winter weather

0:38:450:38:48

has started to bite.

0:38:480:38:57

As it does, we report

on the North East councils looking

0:38:570:39:00

to get into the energy business.

0:39:000:39:01

Could it be a way to deliver

lower gas and electric

0:39:010:39:04

bills for customers?

0:39:040:39:05

Well, talking about that

and all the week's political news

0:39:050:39:08

in the region, except perhaps

the misuse of sausage rolls

0:39:080:39:10

by certain unnamed bakeries,

the Conservative MP for Scarborough

0:39:100:39:12

and Whitby Robert Goodwill,

who is an education minister

0:39:120:39:14

as well, and the MP for Wansbeck

and Labour Party

0:39:140:39:17

chairman, Ian Lavery.

0:39:170:39:18

Welcome to you both.

0:39:180:39:19

But first, Teesside MPs this week

wrote to the Chancellor calling

0:39:190:39:21

upon him to address what they see

as a crisis in funding

0:39:210:39:24

for Cleveland Police.

0:39:240:39:25

The previous day, headteachers went

to Downing street to demand more

0:39:250:39:28

money for the region's schools.

0:39:280:39:29

And the Federation of

Small Businesses were next,

0:39:290:39:31

they want a cut in business rates

and action on broadband.

0:39:310:39:34

And then there's the little matter

of the £430 million required

0:39:340:39:36

for new trains on the Tyne &

Wear Metro, backed this

0:39:360:39:39

week by none other than

the former Chancellor

0:39:390:39:41

- remember him?

0:39:410:39:42

- George Osborne.

0:39:420:39:43

Well, when it comes to next

Wednesday's budget it seems

0:39:430:39:45

there are no shortage of ways

for Philip Hammond

0:39:450:39:48

to splash the cash.

0:39:480:39:49

Robert, would you accept that this

budget is make or break

0:39:490:39:51

for the Northern Powerhouse?

0:39:510:40:00

Well, we've seen tremendous

investment coming into the North -

0:40:000:40:03

when I was a roads minister we had

money going to the A1,

0:40:030:40:06

money on the Western bypass,

money at the end of the Tyne Tunnel,

0:40:060:40:09

so we have seen investment

in the north, and indeed

0:40:090:40:11

with the ending of the Crossrail

project we will see the rebalancing

0:40:110:40:14

I think of investment much more

between the north and south.

0:40:140:40:17

But be in no doubt, it's very

important we continue

0:40:170:40:19

to invest in rail and roads,

because it's only with good

0:40:190:40:22

infrastructure that we can actually

develop the economy up here.

0:40:220:40:24

And businesses would agree with you,

and some of them might take issue

0:40:240:40:27

with the idea that it's not that

there's no investment,

0:40:270:40:30

that it's tremendous

investment that we've seen -

0:40:300:40:32

the problem is with the Northern

Powerhouse,

0:40:320:40:33

you've raised expectations to such

high levels on this idea,

0:40:330:40:36

and the perception amongst small

businesses, even allies

0:40:360:40:38

like George Osborne,

is that as yet the Government hasn't

0:40:380:40:40

delivered the big project that

would back up the

0:40:400:40:42

rhetoric with money.

0:40:420:40:46

Well, as I said we have a £44

billion roads investment strategy,

0:40:460:40:49

much of which is going to the north.

0:40:490:40:58

In my own area we've a project

in the pipeline for the A64,

0:40:580:41:01

connecting the East Coast to the A1.

0:41:010:41:03

Would you accept though that it's

not been good enough so far

0:41:030:41:06

to convince the doubters?

0:41:060:41:07

Well, I think what you need to look

at is across the board -

0:41:070:41:10

the money's gone into Manchester,

gone into Leeds.

0:41:100:41:12

We're looking at a high-speed three

across the Pennines,

0:41:120:41:14

and of course Anne-Marie Trevelyan,

my colleague in Northumberland

0:41:140:41:16

is very keen to see money

going into the A1, so it'll be

0:41:160:41:20

interesting to see what money

is there for projects like that.

0:41:200:41:22

Ian Lavery, when it comes

to helping us in the north,

0:41:220:41:25

what should be the number one

priority in the budget?

0:41:250:41:27

Transport investment,

public sector pay,

0:41:270:41:28

investment in our

hospitals - what is it?

0:41:280:41:30

All of those things.

0:41:300:41:31

But one thing's absolutely certain,

is that the North doesn't end

0:41:310:41:34

at Manchester, Leeds or Liverpool.

0:41:340:41:35

Between those areas

and the Scottish Borders,

0:41:350:41:37

where we live and we see on a daily

basis they complete

0:41:370:41:40

lack of investment...

0:41:400:41:41

-- the complete lack of investment.

0:41:410:41:42

-- the complete lack of investment.

0:41:420:41:46

You mentioned rhetoric -

plenty of rhetoric,

0:41:460:41:49

not enough finances,

not enough investment

0:41:490:41:50

in all the things that you mention.

0:41:500:41:52

What we would like to

see from the budget,

0:41:520:41:55

which would help the north-east,

we need to look at Universal

0:41:550:42:00

Credit, we need a post

on Universal Credit...

0:42:000:42:02

We need to look at infrastructure

programmes and investment

0:42:020:42:04

in the local economies,

when it look at the public sector

0:42:040:42:14

how we can rid ourselves of that pay

cap,

0:42:160:42:18

and also invest monies

in the public sector fully.

0:42:180:42:20

Sure.

0:42:200:42:21

And to be honest with you I expected

you to say that all of those

0:42:210:42:25

were a priority, and that's

the problem, isn't it?

0:42:250:42:27

If you are going to meet

all the promises that Labour makes

0:42:270:42:30

on all these issues,

there are very few that really

0:42:300:42:32

believe you can do that,

as John McDonnell seemed to suggest

0:42:320:42:35

this week by just taxing a few

businesses and the wealthy.

0:42:350:42:38

You are going to have to ask

all people to pay more tax,

0:42:380:42:41

and shouldn't you be

honest about that?

0:42:410:42:42

I think we are honest. At the

election you will recall that we

0:42:420:42:45

were the only party, the Labour

Party, who produced a great book

0:42:450:42:47

along with the manifesto...

Theresa May said it was incredible

0:42:470:42:53

you could fund that.

But we were

quite clear, crystal clear, because

0:42:530:43:01

it is important that we are upfront

with the electorate, on how we fund

0:43:010:43:07

what we want.

Robert, this week

there have been new powers added --

0:43:070:43:13

handed to this transport body. With

the radical idea be to hand all the

0:43:130:43:19

money and all the power for Northern

transport to those who know it best?

0:43:190:43:28

We had a referendum about whether we

should have a regional level of

0:43:280:43:32

Government, and I think people want

more bureaucracy.

You didn't worry

0:43:320:43:36

about bureaucracy when it came to

mayors in separate -- certain parts

0:43:360:43:40

of the country!

We have MPs in

certain parts of the North of

0:43:400:43:46

England... We are getting

substantial investment in the North.

0:43:460:43:52

Look at the money that has been

going in on the western relief road.

0:43:520:43:59

Let's look at the Tyne & Wear Metro.

Would it be acceptable for the

0:43:590:44:04

Chancellor to say I'm not going to

give you the money directly, you've

0:44:040:44:07

got to do it from -- through a

private company?

When I first went

0:44:070:44:14

to the Department for Transport we

looked at finance through the public

0:44:140:44:17

sector, and we decided for some of

the big road projects for the

0:44:170:44:21

Government to borrow money more

cheaply from the private sector. We

0:44:210:44:27

need to make sure we don't max out

on our credit card Bill like the

0:44:270:44:31

last Labour Government did. Trains

are generally owned by the rolling

0:44:310:44:39

stock companies that leads them out,

so the principle there is a

0:44:390:44:42

different one to having a PFI such

as the one we have for schools.

I

0:44:420:44:51

personally think we should be

looking at the correct investment,

0:44:510:44:55

not just in the Tyne & Wear Metro

but also the line in Northumberland,

0:44:550:45:00

we should never forget

Northumberland, and that money

0:45:000:45:05

should be coming from central

government to invest in that

0:45:050:45:09

infrastructure, to connect time in

the north to the city regions.

Now,

0:45:090:45:14

the cold weather is upon us, and the

difficulties faced by many try to

0:45:140:45:18

pay their fuel bills. 152,000

households in the north-east are

0:45:180:45:22

affected by fuel poverty. People who

spent more than 10% of their income

0:45:220:45:28

on gas or electricity.

The Government says the market is

0:45:280:45:32

broken, and it has promised to cap

bills on the most expensive tariffs,

0:45:320:45:36

an idea initially proposed by

Labour. Could there be another

0:45:360:45:40

solution to the problem of those

rising bills, in the shape of local

0:45:400:45:43

councils setting up their own energy

firms?

0:45:430:45:48

It is not just shop prices putting

people under pressure in Newcastle.

0:45:480:45:52

Businesses and the public are

feeling the strain from rising

0:45:520:45:55

energy bills. The owner of this

newly opened restaurant says the

0:45:550:45:59

cost of illiteracy is crippling.

They put their prices up 11% last

0:45:590:46:05

time, and inflation's going up to

2%. So they are making 9% of people

0:46:050:46:12

who haven't got the money, who are

struggling. And they are making

0:46:120:46:15

billions.

With two small children,

Colin and Vicky have to keep their

0:46:150:46:20

home warm.

Energy prices are going

up all the time. It is not just a

0:46:200:46:27

struggle for myself but the public,

everybody's struggling.

I can never

0:46:270:46:31

understand the bills that they give

you, and all the units and this

0:46:310:46:36

price Purvis... It is all a bit

complicated. I can see why old

0:46:360:46:41

people wouldn't understand it.

Fuel

campaigners say they can see why

0:46:410:46:46

some families are pushed to the

edge.

We see 15% of older couples

0:46:460:46:54

and young people having to choose

whether to feed themselves and their

0:46:540:46:56

families and having to have the

electricity on. This is just the

0:46:560:47:02

start of the winter, so the problem

is only going to get worse.

So is

0:47:020:47:05

this part of the answer? A council

run power station close to the banks

0:47:050:47:09

of the Tyne.

Basically we've got two

identical power engines. It's

0:47:090:47:18

basically a very large 20 cylinder

engine running on natural gas.

The

0:47:180:47:23

plant supplies electricity and heat

to public buildings in Gateshead and

0:47:230:47:28

from next year, hundreds of homes.

Backers say the result is cheaper

0:47:280:47:33

and greener energy.

Customers are

getting a lower carbon, lower cost

0:47:330:47:38

source of energy. We discovered

their energy compared to the market

0:47:380:47:41

rate, and the comfort is coming from

a lower carbon source.

0:47:410:47:49

Are you having trouble finding the

right tariff for you? Don't worry,

0:47:490:47:54

Nottingham, help is here!

Some

councils have gone further,

0:47:540:47:58

launching not-for-profit energy

suppliers that serve whole cities.

0:47:580:48:03

Nottingham's Robin Hood energy was

the first.

0:48:030:48:06

We are not about setting aside money

to pay dividends to shareholders or

0:48:060:48:12

two massive director -- directors'

salaries or bonuses, we are about

0:48:120:48:18

setting aside any profit to bring

back down the price.

A number of

0:48:180:48:23

councils are considering following

suit, but this is potentially a

0:48:230:48:25

gamble with taxpayers' money, and

for customers it won't always be the

0:48:250:48:30

cheapest option. Here at University

-- at the Newcastle University,

0:48:300:48:35

experts point out the pitfalls.

Although these schemes look

0:48:350:48:38

promising, they face a lot of

serious challenges, so it is a

0:48:380:48:42

highly competitive market, there are

technical risks about how to

0:48:420:48:46

maintain the infrastructure itself

and make sure it is reliable and

0:48:460:48:48

efficient.

Do you like the idea of a

council owned energy supplier?

I am

0:48:480:48:55

not sure, but if it was a cheaper

option is to be something to look

0:48:550:48:59

bad.

Not the council in the area I

live in, thank you.

You don't think

0:48:590:49:03

they are up to running the energy

company?

Not particularly, I

0:49:030:49:09

sometimes wonder why they are --

whether they can run the city.

It is

0:49:090:49:15

still not quite clear the local

approach will work.

0:49:150:49:18

An endless supply of energy I

gather. Is this something councils

0:49:180:49:22

should be dabbling in when they have

to concentrate on many other things

0:49:220:49:27

with limited resources?

I think it's

a great idea, it is visionary, it is

0:49:270:49:32

happening in other countries across

Europe, it is happening in America,

0:49:320:49:36

cities in America, looking at

producing their own electricity, and

0:49:360:49:42

it can only mean a good thing if

indeed the people in the region

0:49:420:49:47

themselves actually receive cheaper

energy. There is legislation placed

0:49:470:49:49

at the sports -- time, which

prevents local municipal owned

0:49:490:49:55

energy companies from providing

cheap energy, cheaper energy than

0:49:550:50:01

what is available on the grid. And

if this is to be successful, we have

0:50:010:50:05

got to help that it will be cheaper

for those in the region, moving

0:50:050:50:12

people out of fuel poverty, so if we

cannot get cheaper energy, then what

0:50:120:50:16

is the point?

Robert, would it be more effective

0:50:160:50:21

to see councils given this chance to

do this, rather than these caps

0:50:210:50:26

being proposed by all of you?

We

have protections for people on low

0:50:260:50:30

incomes, a discount worth -- Ford to

people... And of course we have the

0:50:300:50:38

winter payments. But the problem is

not with suppliers, we have 60

0:50:380:50:42

supplies at the moment, up from 13

in 2010, the problem is that 60% of

0:50:420:50:48

consumers particularly older people

are on a standard variable tariff,

0:50:480:50:52

and the Bill that is coming before

Parliament for us to consider is

0:50:520:50:56

that -- for those people to have

that tariff respected, a

0:50:560:51:00

safeguarding tariff.

There are

people right now choosing as we

0:51:000:51:05

heard between heating and eating.

When is this cap going to appear? At

0:51:050:51:11

the moment, there are 60% of people

paying more than they should, so the

0:51:110:51:16

first point...

And the market's has

proven that there are people who

0:51:160:51:20

will not shop around.

When is that

cap would happen? The legislation

0:51:200:51:24

will be in Parliament by the end of

the year, meaning that Ofgem will

0:51:240:51:29

set that level at a fair level, to

prevent the situation where loyal

0:51:290:51:33

customers, those who do not

understand the market or have access

0:51:330:51:41

to the Internet, can get the best

deal.

0:51:410:51:44

A lot of suppliers out there...

This

was classed as a Marxist policy by

0:51:440:51:51

the Conservatives when it was first

mentioned by Ed Miliband, and now...

0:51:510:51:57

Isn't the answer more competition?

The answer is not more competition,

0:51:570:52:01

the answer is to make sure, and what

the Labour Party says... The Labour

0:52:010:52:09

Party is quite clear, we would take

back into public ownership the

0:52:090:52:14

energy companies. You can only

control what you earn. Not what

0:52:140:52:19

we've -- we've got 30,000 people

dying every year because of the lack

0:52:190:52:25

of heat in their properties.

And it

cost you £30 billion to £40 billion

0:52:250:52:32

to nationalise the national Grid.

I

think saving 30,000 pupils's

0:52:320:52:40

people's lives should be top of the

agenda. What about those 30,000

0:52:400:52:48

people.

For many -- there's no doubt

what issue has been keeping MPs busy

0:52:480:52:57

this week, but we like to discover

what else has been going on in the

0:52:570:53:02

world of politics, other than you

know what.

0:53:020:53:11

Unemployment in the north-east

fell in the three

0:53:110:53:13

months to September by 6,000.

0:53:130:53:14

There was also a slight

drop in Cumbria.

0:53:140:53:16

The Bishop of Durham, the Right

Reverend Paul Butler, says he's

0:53:160:53:19

heard heartbreaking stories about

how Universal Credit is devastating

0:53:190:53:21

the lives of claimants.

0:53:210:53:24

He was speaking in the Lords.

0:53:240:53:26

A debate is to be held

over the plight of WASPI

0:53:260:53:29

women, who are fighting changes

to the state pension age.

0:53:290:53:31

Stockton North MP Alex

Cunningham urged the

0:53:310:53:33

pensions minister,

Hexham's Guy Opperman,

0:53:330:53:34

to engage with the women.

0:53:340:53:38

It won't go away, so why

doesn't the Minister engage

0:53:380:53:41

with the campaigners

to find a solution?

0:53:410:53:43

The Government has already

introduced transitional

0:53:430:53:46

arrangements costing

£1.1 billion, in 2011.

0:53:460:53:47

Newcastle councillors will decide

this week whether to hand

0:53:470:53:50

over the city's parks

to a charitable trust.

0:53:500:53:52

And finally, the National

Lottery's awarded Redcar

0:53:520:53:58

and Cleveland Council nearly £70,000

for a project about the history of

0:53:580:54:01

the iron and steel industry.

0:54:010:54:03

While £4,500 will go

towards exploring the

0:54:030:54:05

history of pigeon

fancying in Skinningrove.

0:54:050:54:06

Now, I do want to discuss one

other issue that I think

0:54:060:54:09

has come up in the Commons this

week, and which will no doubt come

0:54:090:54:12

up next week, which

is Universal Credit.

0:54:120:54:19

Robert Goodwill, there is growing

pressure from the Bishop of Durham

0:54:190:54:23

even within your own party to give

ground on this. A listening

0:54:230:54:26

Government should be able --

prepared to move on this issue.

0:54:260:54:32

About 8% of claimants are on

Universal Credit at the moment, that

0:54:320:54:35

is going to extent a 10% in January.

And yes, there are emergency

0:54:350:54:42

payments people can take to tide

them through, and that 50% of

0:54:420:54:47

claimants... I think the Government

will look at it, and certainly we

0:54:470:54:51

are getting feedback, but what is

fundamentally the case is that

0:54:510:54:55

Universal Credit is helping people

get on to work, but under the old

0:54:550:54:59

system people did not want to work

more than 16 hours, for every £1

0:54:590:55:03

they lost they earned 96p. Universal

Credit is getting people into work,

0:55:030:55:11

but in the initial period we have to

get them the work they need.

If the

0:55:110:55:19

Government does tackle this, will

that be enough, particularly as to

0:55:190:55:23

how they dealt with that help line

that was costing them money?

Any

0:55:230:55:27

Government who proposes a policy

that is going to push more people

0:55:270:55:31

into poverty, including hundreds of

thousands of more children, should

0:55:310:55:35

really, seriously, look at

themselves. If I put in a claim for

0:55:350:55:38

Universal Credit today, then I would

not receive a payment until after

0:55:380:55:43

the New Year. I think the issue is,

Richard, will they tackle it? There

0:55:430:55:51

must be pressure put on the

Government to ensure that people

0:55:510:55:55

have got bread on the table for

their kids, they have, at this

0:55:550:56:00

particular point in the year, it

isn't Christmas. Any Government

0:56:000:56:04

pushing people into poverty should

look themselves seriously in the

0:56:040:56:07

mirror.

We're going to have to move

on. The Prime Minister says she

0:56:070:56:13

wants to see many more new homes

built over the next decade, but how

0:56:130:56:17

many should there be in the

north-east and Cumbria? Our local

0:56:170:56:22

councillors have their view, with

plans for more than 180,000, but

0:56:220:56:26

that was before a new consultation

which appears to put the brakes on

0:56:260:56:31

some of those ambitions. It says

house-building should be

0:56:310:56:35

concentrated on where an affluent

population is expected to grow, so

0:56:350:56:41

that means fewer new homes in places

like Sunderland, Middlesbrough and

0:56:410:56:45

Carlisle.

According to the Government, the

0:56:450:56:48

formula will mean the right homes in

the right places. The context

0:56:480:56:51

calculation drawn up in offices in

Whitehall is based on the idea that

0:56:510:56:56

more homes should be built in areas

where house prices are high.

0:56:560:56:58

more homes should be built in areas

where house prices are high. Where

0:56:580:57:00

prices are cheaper, the opposite may

be the case. Most places in the

0:57:000:57:06

north-east, Cumbria and North

Yorkshire, would see few homes built

0:57:060:57:09

under the scheme. In total,

0:57:090:57:12

Yorkshire, would see few homes built

under the scheme. In total, 30,000

0:57:120:57:12

fewer of the next decade.

Critics say both the data on which

0:57:120:57:18

the calculations are based on the

idea itself are deeply flawed.

0:57:180:57:29

Housing growth is a vital component

of our investment programme, without

0:57:290:57:33

it we do not attract the investment

or get those jobs. We may have to

0:57:330:57:37

temper what we would want to do. I

don't think we would be willing to

0:57:370:57:41

do that, I am not willing and the

Mayor is not willing. I think we

0:57:410:57:45

would have to work harder to attract

that investment, we would have

0:57:450:57:48

people who might go elsewhere when

they could live here and work in the

0:57:480:57:52

time. That has a knock on effect of

our investment programme, our

0:57:520:57:55

strategy. And I think ultimately it

means we have a Government that says

0:57:550:58:01

places like Middlesbrough and up in

the north are not necessarily worth

0:58:010:58:04

living or working in.

Robert, with

all the talk from your party about

0:58:040:58:10

building new homes, it is ironic

that the formula could see fewer new

0:58:100:58:16

homes being built in the North?

House-building is at more than

0:58:160:58:20

double the level it was under the

last Labour Government in 2009, but

0:58:200:58:26

people want to buy homes, where they

will not -- where they want to live

0:58:260:58:30

and work. The measure the Government

has introduced focused -- focuses on

0:58:300:58:37

the area people cannot afford to buy

homes, but where jobs might be. So

0:58:370:58:43

you can't force people to live where

they don't want to live.

According

0:58:430:58:47

to the formula, Scarborough should

be building over 6000 fewer homes

0:58:470:58:53

council wants them to build.

Presumably if you like the former

0:58:530:58:57

lady would support that?

When it

comes down to it, we have plenty of

0:58:570:59:08

land allocated in the country to

build on, and the house-builders are

0:59:080:59:14

building houses and people are

buying those houses, we have seen

0:59:140:59:17

massive investment going into my own

area, in the Whitby area...

Ian

0:59:170:59:23

Avery, this is just great --

realistic. -- knavery. -- Ian

0:59:230:59:36

Lavery, isn't it? House prices are

much higher in the South...

The

0:59:360:59:43

consequences of this new criteria

will mean less homes in the north

0:59:430:59:47

again. Total inequality between the

north and the South, and why this

0:59:470:59:52

new criteria of affordability is

being introduced is beyond me. What

0:59:520:59:55

the consequences mean that there

will be less house-building in areas

0:59:551:00:01

like mine where new houses are

much-needed...

But there is no point

1:00:011:00:07

in unrealistic targets in areas that

are losing population.

We need

1:00:071:00:12

proportionate investment in the

north-east the same as we get in

1:00:121:00:16

other -- any other place in the

south-east for example, we talk

1:00:161:00:20

about Universal Credit, investment

in the regions... The sad and the

1:00:201:00:29

worst...

Another bizarre aspect is

that Sajid Javid criticises the

1:00:291:00:35

council for not having a plan,

Conservatives wanted to cut the

1:00:351:00:40

house-building targets so --.

We had

a change of control in

1:00:401:00:47

Northumberland County Council.

According to Sajid Javid, you got it

1:00:471:00:50

all wrong.

Certainly Scarborough

Borough Council were one of the

1:00:501:00:54

first to come up with a plan. We've

seen housing being built in numbers,

1:00:541:00:58

large and people moving in.

It took

nine years to come forward with a

1:00:581:01:05

core strategy. It was introduced in

February of this year, and within

1:01:051:01:11

days of the Conservatives taking

control of Northumbria County

1:01:111:01:15

Council, they withdrew the core

strategy against legal opinion, and

1:01:151:01:20

they have been severely admonished

by their own sector...

What is going

1:01:201:01:24

on?! Much more on what this means

for Cumbria and the north-east in

1:01:241:01:28

next week's show. Follow me on

1:01:281:01:31

Philip Hammond will deliver his

Budget on Wednesday -

1:01:391:01:41

he's moved it to the Autumn

if you remember - and he'll be

1:01:411:01:44

hoping it can help re-define

the Government in the eyes

1:01:441:01:47

of the public.

1:01:471:01:48

But when it comes to

the economy, do people trust

1:01:481:01:52

the Conservatives, or Labour?

1:01:521:01:53

Here's Ellie Price

with the moodbox.

1:01:531:01:57

MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere

by Talking Heads.

1:01:571:02:05

All eyes will be on the Chancellor

this week as we find out

1:02:051:02:08

what he has been cooking

up in his Budget.

1:02:081:02:11

So we have pulled off the A1

near Peterborough to ask people here

1:02:111:02:14

who they trust with the economy -

is it the Chancellor,

1:02:141:02:17

Philip Hammond, or is it

Labour's John McDonnell?

1:02:171:02:23

No 7.

1:02:231:02:27

Which one's Tory?

1:02:271:02:32

I voted Conservative

for the last two

1:02:381:02:40

elections, don't feel very confident

now, so I'm going to swap.

1:02:401:02:44

If I said to you which

of these characters

1:02:441:02:47

would you trust with the economy,

what would you say?

1:02:471:02:49

The one who's currently

running it, because they

1:02:491:02:51

seem to be bringing

the deficit down.

1:02:511:02:52

Labour.

1:02:521:02:53

Why?

1:02:531:02:55

Because I'm an NHS worker.

1:02:551:02:57

For me, it's just about

spending, public spending.

1:02:571:03:00

Labour always overspend.

1:03:001:03:05

John McDonnell, I think

capitalism as we know it is tanked

1:03:051:03:11

and I think we need

a radical re-think.

1:03:111:03:16

Broken his egg, who do you trust

more on the economy?

1:03:161:03:19

No one.

1:03:191:03:20

Why?

1:03:201:03:22

Because they never come up trumps

with anything that they

1:03:221:03:28

reckon they're going to do.

1:03:281:03:29

If I had to make you

choose one of them?

1:03:291:03:31

The man that's there, Hammond.

1:03:311:03:33

I wouldn't trust

Philip Hammond with a

1:03:331:03:35

bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

1:03:351:03:41

Hello, Bob.

1:03:411:03:42

Oh, hello.

1:03:421:03:43

Who do you trust

more on the economy?

1:03:431:03:44

Oh, the Conservatives.

1:03:441:03:46

Do you?

Why's that?

1:03:461:03:47

I just think they're better

for the small businessman.

1:03:471:03:50

We need a Maggie or

a Winston Churchill,

1:03:501:03:52

somebody in there with

balls to say, right,

1:03:521:03:55

that's the direction

we are

1:03:551:03:56

going in, that's what

we are going to do.

1:03:561:03:58

I've got balls!

1:03:581:04:01

What are you doing?

1:04:011:04:02

Putting balls in holes

by the look of it!

1:04:021:04:09

I suppose the lesser of the two

evils is anything but Tory,

1:04:091:04:12

but I say that without a great

deal of conviction.

1:04:121:04:14

Having grown up in the '70s

with all the rubbish on the

1:04:141:04:17

streets, the strikes, the unions.

1:04:171:04:19

Re-nationalisation and they're

going to spend a lot of money

1:04:191:04:22

and increase taxes and it will pull

the country down.

1:04:221:04:28

I've seen an awful loft of all-day

breakfasts today, but it

1:04:281:04:31

is clearing up time here

at the diner and time

1:04:311:04:35

to reveal the Moodbox.

1:04:351:04:37

Take it away, Tim.

1:04:371:04:39

As you can say it was

a close-run thing, but

1:04:391:04:41

like any fiscally responsible

Chancellor, I've done my maths and

1:04:411:04:44

counted and Philip Hammond got six

more votes than John McDonnell.

1:04:441:04:51

Oh, chip, thank you very much!

1:04:511:04:54

That was Ellie and the entirely

unscientific Moodbox,

1:04:541:04:56

at the Stibbington diner near

Peterborough.

1:04:561:04:59

But for a slightly more scientific

understanding of how the public view

1:04:591:05:02

the parties on this and other

issues, let's have a look

1:05:021:05:04

at some recent polling.

1:05:041:05:06

Here's where the Conservatives

and Labour stood on the economy back

1:05:061:05:09

when the Prime Minister called

the snap election in April,

1:05:091:05:12

when the Conservatives had a big

lead, as they did in many

1:05:121:05:15

other areas.

1:05:151:05:17

The most recent poll by the same

company reckoned Labour had narrowed

1:05:171:05:20

the gap significantly,

as they have in other areas,

1:05:201:05:22

although they're still 10 points

behind the Tories on this issue.

1:05:221:05:27

And there was another survey much

discussed at Westminster this week,

1:05:271:05:31

showing that while the gap

between Theresa May

1:05:311:05:36

and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed

drastically since that pre-election

1:05:361:05:39

period, Mrs May is,

despite her many problems,

1:05:391:05:40

still pretty much level-pegging

in polling terms or

1:05:401:05:42

even slightly ahead.

1:05:421:05:44

And when it comes to how

people intend to vote

1:05:441:05:46

while the Tories are behind,

there's no sign of a

1:05:461:05:48

big Labour lead yet.

1:05:481:05:50

Tony Blair thinks that,

given the current "mess"

1:05:501:05:52

inside the Government,

Jeremy Corbyn's party should be

1:05:521:05:56

10 or 15 points ahead.

1:05:561:05:59

Well, many in Labour will find it

easy to dismiss both Tony Blair

1:05:591:06:03

and the opinion polls, as they both

called the last election entirely

1:06:031:06:05

wrong, so what if anything do

these polls tell us?

1:06:051:06:12

Let's turn to our expert panel.

Labour are now eight points on the

1:06:121:06:20

economy, according to a poll. Why is

there a gap between Labour and the

1:06:201:06:25

Tories?

There seems to be a

deep-seated reservation in the minds

1:06:251:06:31

of many voters. They look at Jeremy

Corbyn and John McDonnell and

1:06:311:06:34

imagine them in charge of the

country, the finances, national

1:06:341:06:40

security, and think... It is

unfashionable to point out in many

1:06:401:06:43

circles that Labour did not win the

last election, and it didn't win it

1:06:431:06:48

for that kind of reason. Jeremy

Corbyn is very good at attracting

1:06:481:06:54

and inspiring young people and

people who had not voted before. We

1:06:541:07:00

underestimated his capacity to do

that. But he wasn't great at turning

1:07:001:07:06

Tories to Labour, or sealing off

those final reservations. The

1:07:061:07:11

government have had a shambolic few

weeks. We are tripping over

1:07:111:07:15

resigning a cabinet ministers. They

are fighting like ferrets. A lot of

1:07:151:07:19

people are having a really tough

time and looking at the government

1:07:191:07:22

to help them, and are unimpressed

with what they see. But there seems

1:07:221:07:27

to be a final fence that Corbyn does

not seem to be able to get over.

1:07:271:07:34

Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour

should be 15 or 20 points ahead?

I

1:07:341:07:39

think he's completely wrong, and is

revealing he is out of date. I think

1:07:391:07:44

Labour are in a really good

position. If you look at what they

1:07:441:07:47

have achieved in the last year,

going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn

1:07:471:07:53

had just managed to avoid, had to

re-fight Labour leadership contest.

1:07:531:07:59

They were 20 points behind. Theresa

May was at the top of her game.

1:07:591:08:06

Through the general election and

beyond it, they have continued to

1:08:061:08:11

build their movement. They are very

effective on social media. I think

1:08:111:08:15

they are in a strong position, and

they need about 60 seats to win the

1:08:151:08:21

next general election. They will

probably start with 25 of those. The

1:08:211:08:26

fact that they are closing the gap

on the economy suggests that a lot

1:08:261:08:30

of voters are now giving them a

chance or a hearing, which they

1:08:301:08:34

certainly were not getting a year

ago. I think they have done very

1:08:341:08:38

well.

Can they be confident with a

slim lead against the government?

I

1:08:381:08:44

am slightly more with Tony Blair

than with Iain. This goes back to

1:08:441:08:49

that very general election result. A

huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy

1:08:491:08:56

Corbyn. If you asked that same 40%

of people today, do you want Jeremy

1:08:561:09:04

Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where

you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn

1:09:041:09:07

to lead the British governmentanswer

is no, because Theresa May still,

1:09:071:09:13

despite the fact she is presiding

over a shambolic cabinet, she has

1:09:131:09:17

the most support for Prime Minister.

The last general election may have

1:09:171:09:24

just been a giant by-election,

because everyone was so short that

1:09:241:09:30

Theresa May would get in.

The

Chancellor Philip Hammond gave

1:09:301:09:34

Labour a bit of a gift, when he

said, there were not any unemployed

1:09:341:09:41

people in Britain. A slip of the

tongue. Was that damaging?

You have

1:09:411:09:47

to look at the context he was saying

it in, which will not be the context

1:09:471:09:52

of the Facebook meme you will get

shortly. He was asked about future

1:09:521:09:59

unemployment, and he was saying that

when technological advances came,

1:09:591:10:10

unemployment didn't materialise.

They would not be able to use that

1:10:101:10:15

against him so easily if it didn't

have something that people think

1:10:151:10:20

about the Conservative government,

which is that they are out of touch,

1:10:201:10:24

they have no idea about some people,

that they refuse to see what they

1:10:241:10:27

have done. People have that idea

about the Conservatives, so to drop

1:10:271:10:32

a bit of a clanger in that regard...

The budget is on Wednesday, and also

1:10:321:10:39

this week, the Brexit committee will

be meeting. What will they be

1:10:391:10:43

talking about and why does it

matter?

What Stephen Hammond said to

1:10:431:10:48

you a few moments ago was

fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be

1:10:481:10:51

the big meeting. It is the

negotiations committee. Nine or so

1:10:511:10:57

ministers have recently been

included in that, like Michael Gove.

1:10:571:11:01

They are going to be talking about

the money, precisely how much they

1:11:011:11:05

offer in two weeks' time to meet

this deadline in the December

1:11:051:11:10

council for phase two. Michael Gove

and Boris Johnson want to add in

1:11:101:11:14

conditions. They want to say, we

will give you this as long as we get

1:11:141:11:19

that. What was fascinating with

Stephen Hammond just now was that he

1:11:191:11:24

revealed that it wasn't just the

Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a

1:11:241:11:27

more precise definition of what we

are going for, it is the remainers

1:11:271:11:37

as well.

In the heart of the

government, David Davis is trying to

1:11:371:11:42

keep the bill as low as possible,

possibly around 30%. The divorce

1:11:421:11:50

Bill and future liabilities. Some in

the civil service have suggested

1:11:501:11:56

that it has to be 40 or above. What

it reveals to me is really, it's

1:11:561:12:03

another function of Britain not

really having a proper Prime

1:12:031:12:07

Minister. In normal circumstances,

of course the Cabinet is divided. A

1:12:071:12:12

strong leader would say, right, this

is what is happening. This is where

1:12:121:12:16

we are going. We will call it 35 or

40 billion. We will save to the

1:12:161:12:22

European Union, there is the check,

but it will not have a signature on

1:12:221:12:26

it until we are satisfied with the

next

1:12:261:12:39

stage. The government is hampered by

the lack of a strong personality who

1:12:451:12:48

could do that, make a political play

with other European leaders that

1:12:481:12:50

might break the deadlock.

Presumably

that is why the full Cabinet have

1:12:501:12:53

not discussed what the future Brexit

deal will be.

That is the

1:12:531:12:55

astonishing thing. There has been no

sort of vision of what Britain is

1:12:551:12:58

going to look like after Brexit. We

have got down in what the

1:12:581:13:02

negotiation position for tomorrow

will be. What does it look like in

1:13:021:13:06

terms of immigration, trade with the

rest of the world, what life will

1:13:061:13:09

look like for ordinarily... Ordinary

people?

There are visions for this,

1:13:091:13:15

but they will not agree on one. Is

there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet

1:13:151:13:21

Minister who could have one single

vision without them all ripping each

1:13:211:13:24

other's heads off? Probably not.

Thank you.

1:13:241:13:29

That's all for today.

1:13:291:13:30

Join me again next Sunday

at 11.00 here on BBC One.

1:13:301:13:33

Until then, bye bye.

1:13:331:13:36

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