28/09/2014 Sunday Politics North West

Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,

live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.

There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected

He joins us live from his constituency, where he has

It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he

arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.

On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned

RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq

We'll be hearing from UKIP leader Nigel Farage,

and will anything persuade budding Conservatives to vote out the red

In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those

priced out are choosing to move away.

And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,

who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.

Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.

At the current rate of Tory resignations,

Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote

address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.

It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP

defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and

Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.

Here's what the Prime Minister had to say

These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and

rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you

want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain

that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a

Conservative government after the next election.

And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.

Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative

colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping

faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You

heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was

dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have

increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour

managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under

Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my

words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut

immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to

the community, particularly over house-building. The government has

broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my

voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to

UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency

chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and

you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office

telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the

Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..

So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham

to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did

you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually

do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you

cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a

decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by

UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a

lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.

That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this

country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,

quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.

So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting

UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number

of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are

winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned

with the political class in Westminster, that they have not

voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is

inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the

last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of

life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.

That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of

change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My

ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10

as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David

Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick

Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and

we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to

pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to

give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up

for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the

party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this

is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you

winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are

frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to

save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,

you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in

Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at

MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their

voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking

permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe

many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a

Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to

decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our

country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and

have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and

honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my

constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is

the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and

do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas

Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for

disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,

the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was

extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years

ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit

speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things

there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at

Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few

ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just

to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who

believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,

who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which

has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,

which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -

after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David

Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would

you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP

policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with

immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will

look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to

restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How

serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,

destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is

beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen

eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing

like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.

There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis

writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the

first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used

to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic

in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some

of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.

There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the

media problem of the general election which they cannot win if

UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in

many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does

it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would

it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics

to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the

Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably

lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising

them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It

is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I

was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the

TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.

But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to

step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what

he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in

the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that

we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they

say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,

Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this

is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able

to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly

list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,

this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.

To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative

The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative

Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -

that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier

There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,

and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to

the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of

Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge

they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.

Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of

pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories

run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten

councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more

ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is

getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing

seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be

stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the

policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU

Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,

39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...

It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said

were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while

treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a

Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative

councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the

general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are

opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left

the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the

Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but

what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my

residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was

happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%

think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with

31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing

councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an

issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a

way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is

almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the

party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey

thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have

not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for

difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must

be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be

specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote

UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are

disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,

come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just

eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and

local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem

the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former

Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.

Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't

trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They

believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and

they are right. They said before they defected that people should

vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is

right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this

is the point, the people should decide. However a future government

decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who

decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough

powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come

out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.

The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron

won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to

give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote

to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and

be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in

advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the

rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take

place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just

now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that

choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.

Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave

the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but

again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want

to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before

they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is

Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will

not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I

think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be

scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,

didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign

Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first

reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..

Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26

years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.

Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?

We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve

things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider

negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative

promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to

keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,

you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000

in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that

under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the

country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?

Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?

coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened

under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we

would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on

immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.

Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in

2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP

now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in

this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought

they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a

thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of

opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will

be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are

announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next

Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather

than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our

survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact

with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows

one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want

it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't

work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are

sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is

further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards

English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is

unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we

believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we

have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK

as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election

result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,

absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns

night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals

for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are

agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There

was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will

produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for

Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals

for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will

you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?

The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You

will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I

don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish

timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general

election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what

English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it

over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,

but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions

that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs

from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can

achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English

devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if

you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going

on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more

freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of

that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what

happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution

or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and

that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair

to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you

perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more

tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a

commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --

but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is

less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to

Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot

more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about

taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you

can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,

there will be English votes for English laws after the election

Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if

there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce

our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go

away because I want to move on to some other matters.

Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.

Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq

since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.

When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers

who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have

already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to

maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back

from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else

try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a

full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role

to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.

And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,

Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all

that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been

announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are

sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of

Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so

little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some

unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked

for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it

will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which

can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the

operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,

Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our

backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British

government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic

country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could

have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political

consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to

send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with

that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many

other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards

Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he

condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any

credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,

they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we

are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote

last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the

House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken

care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of

Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until

recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq

but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make

sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our

assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime

Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there

is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When

we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by

all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign

policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority

in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael

Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he

says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they

are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery

of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything

does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United

States and other countries are engaged in the action against

targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing

different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the

House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have

achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.

The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported

that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a

democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a

very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue

a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not

embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military

experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone

tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We

have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike

the last government. The national security council is chaired by the

Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of

the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the

people who have the information now. So, you will know what British

and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said

there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come

back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will

have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,

indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does

that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot

comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat

to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't

Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in

the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take

action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have

not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought

we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes

on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal

basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading

of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that

they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their

action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes

back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it

is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria

in building up the political strength of the more moderate

opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do

not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing

something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you

not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure

of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice

given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That

was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal

advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal

situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it

that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme

humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine

strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal

advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say

goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20

minutes, The Week Ahead. More on the Tories `

have they done anything to persuade people to vote out the red rose of

Labour in any of our key marginals? I think that people feel thd same

as they did before, I don't think a lot has happened to

change it in the last four xears, so Well, as we've been hearing,

the Conservative Conference in Birmingham has got

off to a very rocky start, mainly due to the influence

of the UK Independence Partx. So we've got representatives

from both parties here This week the Conservative LP

for Macclesfield, David Rutley. And UKIP's Euro MP for

North West England, Louise Bours. David, you need to get over to

bombing quickly before you lose another one, do you not?!

Of course this defection is frustrating but to my mind ht is

completely counter`productive. These guys wanted a referendum for Europe

and the best chance for that is what the Tories won in the next dlection.

It is terribly damaging. It is not terribly damaging, we have ` strong

agenda, you have heard elder about what we are doing. We are gdtting

people into homes and apprenticeships and building on our

economic success. Any more LPs in the North West heading your way I

could not possibly comment `t the moment, but one thing is for

certain, even MPs within thd Conservative Party and their own

body, they are not trusting David Cameron on the issue of Europe and I

believe that this may open the floodgates. We will see.

And we'll be hearing from the UKIP leader Nigel Farage shortly.

But if the Tories want to whn next year's general election, thdy'll not

only have to see off UKIP, but also win some of the North West seats

I've been back to Bolton West to see if David Cameron's partx is

We offer you today unique phctures of a fire brigade on a train, taken

In the late 1880s, Horwich was fired up by heavy

Well, the smoke and steam from these old locomotive works may have

cleared years ago, but therd's still plenty of political energy here

I covered this constituency back in 2010.

The Tories were expected to win but Labour held on.

Bolton West came to symbolise wider Tory defeat at the general dlection.

Labour's majority was cut to just 92.

It remains the Tories' best chance of gaining a North West seat.

It's difficult to say though how you can win, isn't it?

I think we have a perfectly reasonable chance here.

But last time when it was very close,

Gordon Brown was a very unpopular Prime Minister, Ed Miliband is not

as unpopular as that, so it will be more difficult for you, not easier.

This time we have been in power it will be five years

by the general election, and we have got that record

If you still want to find stream trains in Horwich, you need

the model shop, where the owner keeps an eye on what's going on

I think a lot of people in Bolton are disillusioned with what

the Labour Council ` I know you were on about the MP ` has done

in the town, but I don't thhnk the Conservatives will get hn.

And at the deli opposite, Amanda Biggs reckons her customers'

I think you will see a very similar result as yot saw

the last time, I do not think there will be a lot of change.

So another tight result and why do you think that?

I think that people feel thd same as they did before,

I don't think a lot has happened to change it in the last four xears, so

But the Labour MP's certainly warmed some voters up

And she's now campaigning for a second term.

I hope it is going to be easier but I am not complacent.

Do you get many voters who say to you,

I love Ed Miliband and I think that if only people met

him, then they would see th`t he is our future prime minister.

Ed has had a really bad press and this will be a dirty eldction.

The Tories will do every thhng they possibly can to undermine L`bour,

I think however we can see what David Cameron has been doing

as a prime minister ` chill`xing while the country has gone to pot.

But nobody including David Cameron will be relaxed about the political

And we're also joined now from Birmingham by the Consdrvative

campaigner David Skelton, whose organisation Renewal is tryhng to

win back support in the North, and here in the studio by Dr Rob Ford

from the University of Manchester who's an expert on UKIP.

David Skelton, let me begin with you first. You were with us last year

got me about the Conservative challenge here in the North West of

England, have they made progress in the preceding yet? Good morning I

think they have made great progress. Firstly something we all agree on is

that the Labour Party have fallen out of touch with voters and the

North West, but since last xear we have created 74,000 new jobs and

50,000 new businesses. I spoke last year about how the Conservatives

should go for a rise in the minimum wage, they have done that. George

Osborne has articulated that the North West is a powerhouse.

Interestingly, the Labour ldader of Manchester Council has said that the

Conservatives have had more of a vision and been better to ddal with

in terms of the economy and the North West than the Labour Party has

through the years. I am not sure everyone would share your analysis

with the position of the Labour Party in the North West, but putting

that to one side, as it's not all too little, too late? Not at all.

For the first time in decadds the governing party has a compelling

vision for the future of thd North West economy. It is doing concrete

and positive steps to build up the economy here. It is helping the

lowest paid as well, not just increasing the minimum wage but

taking 3 million of the poorest people out of tax altogether,

getting a tax cuts to peopld across the region, which is really

important to improve the life chances of people in the region and

also ensuring that young people in the North West are given thd best

possible quality of education. That is something that was forgotten

about by the Labour Party for a long time. Louise, let me bring xou in. A

positive view of the Tory p`rty in this region, but you would `ctually

say that you are able to whdn over Conservative forgers. I am not sure

what part of the North West they are talking about? Labour Party and UKIP

dominate this region. If yot want to get out the Labour Party, you have

to vote UKIP, there is .14 Lib Dems or Conservative. `` there is no

point in voting Lib Dems or they can serve the party. Our messagd

resonates with grassroots Conservative forgers. What lessage,

I'll use the subtly talking about? All of our messages. We do not have

wet system for our councillors and that is why we are having so many

defections recently from thd Conservative Party. You havd only

had two. I have been canned and sing and speaking to hundreds of people

and only one person mentiondd UKIP and the whole thing. There hs no sea

change toward UKIP, of course they will flatter and do well in the

European elections. But we `re taking forward a coherent strategy

in the North West to take the economy forward and create jobs and

reduce the dependency on thd public sector. Macclesfield, like ly own of

Congleton, we know they are very blue and that is a different thing.

You are arguing about a sea change, I do not say that. Let me bring in

Dr Rob Ford, really you place the battle between UKIP and the Tories

in this region? It is correct to split out the differences. @nd the

more rural areas, the Conservative vote is toughening up and the UKIP

message does not resonate whth the traditional or better off voters.

The damage done to the Conservative's image and thd North

West during the Thatcher and major governments, they have never

recovered from that. UKIP is the only available opposition to the

Labour Party in certain cithes. I do not think that Conservative Party

can't really do better than the North West than previously `nd able

struggle in certain areas. @ large section of the Liberal Democrat vote

that was strong in certain `reas has completely gone over to the Labour

Party. Not many conservativd MPs are contesting those areas eithdr.

Should you not have one Bolton West last time and you did not? One of

the lessons we have learned from Scotland is that you must appeal not

just to the heart, but to the head. It requires a common`sense `pproach

with a clear and economic plan. The Labour Party and UKIP do not have

clear strategies. Of course we do! You cannot trust Labour or Duke on

the economy. That is our message. Let me bring backend David Skelton,

do you think the government comes across and the Conservative Party

comes across as Northern? `` let me bring back in David Skelton. Yes, I

think it does. But you have very few voices in government from that

region? You have a negative point of view. As does UKIP. We are

increasing the minimum wage, not abolishing it. Sorry, David we will

have to be that discussion there for the moment, sorry to cut yot off.

As we've mentioned, Louise has just come back from Doncastdr.

And before he set off to reveal their latest signing, the p`rty s

leader Nigel Farage spoke to our reporter Liz Wallace at Westminster.

Liz asked him why, European elections aside, UKIP hasn't made

the same breakthrough here `s in other parts of the country.

One thing I found with the Wythenshawe by`election

which was fought before Chrhstmas, was that there are parts

of the North West where people are not that familiar with UKIP.

And remember, political parties are voluntary organisations,

it takes time to build up voluntary structures, it takes time to find

the right people to stand as candidates in local elections.

We do have a by`election coling up, of course, which will make puite

a big impact on what our prospects are next year.

But I would remind you that in the European elections wd did

return three MEPs, so it's not as if there isn't a UKIP vote hn

Isn't what we saw in Sale E`st and Wythenshawe telling us that

you're more likely just to deliver a Labour majority?

No, we take far more votes from Labour in the North of Engl`nd than

And also, one of the facts that peopld haven't

really priced into is we take a lot of votes from nonvoters too,

so to try to predict what the impact of UKIP will be on the other

parties next year, I think `t this stage, is virtually impossible.

Which of your policies do you think are going to particularly appeal to

Well, I think the idea that we want peopld...

The idea that nurses, for example, have been dragged

But I have a hunch, I have ` hunch that by the time the general

election comes along next ydar, that actually immigration whll be

This idea of controlling our borders properly will bd

the number one issue and UKHP is the only party offering a solution.

Dr Rob Ford, what did you m`ke of that? I think Nigel Farage lade a

number of rather good points. He is correct that it is unpredictable and

you can take votes from in this part of the country. It will varx from

seat to seat. He has not buhlt up local routes that they need to break

through fear. One thing I would disagree with him on however as I am

not sure that the vote for TKIP peer is based on policy. A lot of it and

you saw that in Nigel Faragd's speech in the conference in

Doncaster is about mobilising disaffection or resentment to

dominant Labour governments and councils. They are trying to provide

a different voice. Do you not face the problem with the UKIP that they

could take small chunks of xour vote be and you cannot wind back those

voters? That could happen to the Labour Party as well. Yes, but it

seems to be affecting the Tory party more? I believe it is happening to

both parties. We must also consider marginal seats, we have a strong

chance to make inroads in cdrtain seeds and to hold onto other seats

like Weaver Vale where we h`ve really strong candidate and MPs Why

do you think some of your voters are moving into UKIP? There is `lways

the chance of a protest votd. This is a very long protest vote then,

David! How ridiculous! We h`ve been doing this for some time. You did OK

in the European elections. Did we not when some of the Europe`n

elections? Well, actually, xou did not wind, the Labour Party one. Yes,

but we won overall in the Etropean election, regardless of how you try

to spend that. Common sense will prevail in the election in Lay. Do

people want Ed Miliband Davhd Cameron? Most people believd that

David Cameron is the better choice. If you want out of Europe, xou must

vote the Conservatives? You can argue that but the fact of the

matter is that we know that he is pro`European, he will campahgn to

stay within Europe with EB negotiation. That is his own

business. He will put it to the people. Douglas Carswell st`ted he

defected because he was told by Cameron's own people that they will

give people just enough to keep us there, people do not trust David

Cameron. Dr Rob Ford, thank you for coming in. We will have to leave it

there, sorry. Well, he may have forgotten

immigration and the bit about the budget deficit, btt

Ed Miliband did remember thd NHS. He put it back to the centrd of

political debate during the Labour This week, the city itself

extended a consultation over Our reporter Kevin Fitzpatrhck's

been asking how easy it is to change We will transform the NHS. There

were ten year plan to transform the NHS is based on people before

profits. Labour were desper`te to show they are the only partx to be

trusted with the future of the NHS. We will free the NHS from D`vid

Cameron's toxic market. It hs the first thing that we will do Here in

Manchester the Labour conference has moved on, they have made colmerce is

on how they will improve thd NHS but you can be sure that the other

parties will have their plans, so how much of a political challenge is

this? This week a consultathon on attempts to time some hospitals in

gritter Manchester M2 speci`list centres was extended amid criticism

that the plan his Ford and the consultation of ?4 million hs a

waste of money. Let's will be put at risk, patients will be unsafe and

have to travel further afield. It is absolutely not about closing A

departments or downgrading them it is about upgrading emergencx care

right across Greater Manchester Hospitals specialising is nothing

new but the controversy over the Healthier Together proposals

highlight problems when changes to the NHS are considered. These could

be costly and very expensivd decisions. When you set abott

changing things that changed the basis of the service being delivered

to people, people get exerchsed about that. We spend ?110 bhllion

each year on the NHS and employs 1.3 million people, so change is big. As

a British institution held dear by the electorate, politicians know

they have to think big and take Caerphilly. The current

government's reorganisation is well underway. How the parties

communicate future plans for it could be crucial in terms of how the

secure votes next May. `` Caerphilly. ``

how do you see the changes for the NHS?

We have to reconfigure the NHS and make sure there is better

integration between health services and other services, but that will be

challenging. But I think people will accept it. The NHS is a weak spot

for the Conservative Party? I do not agree with that. We will put in more

money. But it remains your weak point? People must understand that

we are serious about the NHS and we have spent 12 point 7 billion more

pounds the side of the parlhament and we are trying to make pdople

realise that we are trying to reconfigure it and making it better

for everyone. The health care professionals need to make sure that

the vital services are in place to help gain the trust of the public

and then figure out how we can get more care out into the commtnities.

Louise, you want privatisathon of the NHS, you not? No, we do not

Then why did Paul Nuthall criticise it and congratulate the govdrnment

for privatising part of it? I am the health spokesperson and that anyone

listens to my own speech, I said that Paul is entitled to his own

opinion, however, what I made very clear in my own speech that I gave

to conference is that we must keep the NHS free at the point of

delivery and needs, we abolhsh the democracy and make sure that people

take responsibility for the massive errors that have occurred over the

past years. Does Paul Stull hold these views? Those are his personal

views, I cannot speak for hhm. `` does Paul still hold? Anyond who

wants to listen to my speech, we will stand shoulder to shoulder with

when McCluskie and Unite. Hd wrote to me and I held up a letter for

everyone to see at conference. Time for the rest

of the week's news now. Here's Gill Dummigan

with 60 Seconds. A vigil was held for Salford taxi

driver Alan Henning who's bding held Friends have called

on the Government to do mord. to pull out all the stops and do

whatever they can. A councillor banned

from talking to female colldagues Fellow councillors in Wigan had

called on Robert Bleakley to resign for using his taxpayer`funddd mobile

to call sex chat lines Winston Churchill was a "racist

and white supremacist", according to the Labour candidate for Wyre and

Preston North, Benjamin Whittingham. His party won't take any action

but the local Conservative LP said Politics is about argument `nd

debate, not about smear and insult. The city council's given Liverpool

Football Club permission to And Cumbria's home to

the country's "unhappiest" place: Barrow`in`Furness ranked bottom

in a Government survey. So, Belize, in the unlikely event

that you were advising the Conservative Party, what wotld you

tell them that they must do at this conference? `` Louise. I do not

think anything will stop thd fracture of their own party. David

Cameron must take responsibhlity for that and I believe what we will stop

the fracture of their own p`rty David Cameron must take

responsibility for that and I believed what do not get

overconfident! We have a positive agenda for the United kingdom. The

economy is recovering and wd do not want to put that at risk but we will

try to make a better and more secure future for Britain within the

Conservative Party. And next week we'll be lookhng ahead

to the Liberal Democrat Conference and also meeting all five c`ndidates

for the by`election in Heywood For now, thank you to my gudsts

Louise Bours and David Rutldy. My thanks to you both. Andrew, back

to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with

the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come

here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in

their case the general election Two races later it hasn't quite worked

out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets

under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an

article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the

heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as

a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running

for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a

five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about

campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous

Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong

turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to

UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do

you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?

Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many

more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any

more. I would be very surprised I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant

sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,

namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I

think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because

that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be

a walkover for them. But Rochester is a different scene. And so, there

could be a kind of Newark situation. When I campaigned in Newark, two

labour families I spoke to said they would vote Tory to keep UKIP out.

How bad was the Labour conference last week? One politician said after

he had a really bad performance that his television performance was

suboptimal. I think that would be a good way of describing Ed

Miliband's speech. The problem for Ed Miliband in memorising speeches

is that we are not auditioning for a new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing

for Prime Minister. He failed the Laurence Olivier test, and therefore

failed the Prime Minister Laurence Olivier test, and therefore

forgetting to mention the deficit. He spoke from the heart about issues

which she really cares about, the NHS, the rupture between wages and

inflation, and forgot the deficit. Those issues are important, but if

you are not addressing things like the deficit, then people are really

not going to be listening to your messages on the areas that matter.

Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am afraid. I hope that this ends the

nonsense of leaders wasting their time learning speeches off by

heart. You could learn a Shakespeare play in the time it takes to learn

70 minutes of a leader's speech I think we should just go back to

sensible reading what you have written. You can then alter it just

beforehand. A lot of things were changing, which is not surprising,

but he did not have time to learn it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked

once or twice, but that is enough for that. Despite some of the

derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories are flat-lining in the sun decks,

they have been there almost since the disastrous budget, the

omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is still several points ahead, nothing

seems to change? And David Cameron is now the leader in trouble. It is

almost as if a week is a long time in politics. I thought the Labour

and friends was Saab -- sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial.

You could've watched the top speeches without knowing that the

borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and Syria were in question. I hope,

because of Friday's discussion in Parliament, that this conference

will raise its sights a bit, and we will have something in Cameron's

speech, possibly that of George Osborne as well, which is a bit more

global. People hoped UKIP had gone away during the summer, people at

this conference, I mean, but it is back with a bang. They are still up

at 15% in the polls, the Tories languishing on 32 - what is going to

change? UKIP won 3% of the last election, I always thought they

would get about 6%. If, by the turn of the year, they are still in

double digits, I think at that point you can begin to wake of his

party's chances of winning. I have had three people say to me so far,

come election day, it will be fine, people will sober up and so on. It

will be all right on the night is not a very good strategy, frankly.

When they get past 5%, I start to bite into our 3-way marginal seats,

with liberals, Labour and Tories, and we have got about 60 of those in

the Midlands and the north, so it really is quite serious. And if I

may steal one of David's lines, when you were interviewing Mark Reckless

this morning, and was not talking about the EU referendum, he was

talking about how he felt he had broken his pledges to the electorate

because the Conservatives he said had failed on immigration and on the

deficit, and those sort of bread-and-butter issues could be

really potent on the doorstep, which means the Tories have got to run the

kind of campaign they ran in Newark, which is a real centre ground,

Reddan but a campaign, in which they would hope to get Liberal Democrat

and Labour voters out to vote tactically against UKIP. I think

today we have seen Cameron been pushed to the right. He has had to

say, yes, I would leave Europe, which he has never said before. It

is a huge stepping stone, a big difference. It takes the Tory party

somewhere else. May be get them a lot of votes. But it has not so far.

But I think it loses a lot of people. The industry organisations,

for example. The prospect of going out of Europe, but is quite a fight

for them. Is it not the lesson that you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do

not need to, really. I agree, last week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold

on, that is enough subs! I would not be crowing too much! But what I was

going to say, he left out something incredibly important, the deficit.

But how many people outside the M25 are thinking about the deficit? One

problem we face with Miliband is, he is good at politics and bad at

economics, in a way. He comes up with bonkers policies which people

love, price-fixing, things like that. Our problem will be about

relevance on the doorstep. I do not think at the end of the day it will

be about Europe. But was there not a moment of danger for you at the

conference, that one area where Miliband is potentially vulnerable

is not having credible team with business. Who turned up at the

Labour conference, the head of Airbus, saying, we have got to stay

in the European Union? The danger is that Europe allows the Labour Party

to gain credibility with business. There is some truth in that. But we

are in effectively the home straight, the last six months, and

people will be fussing about prices and jobs. Very parochial. They will

not be saying, what does the CBI think about this? It is, what is

happening to me, in my town, in my factory, in my office. That is where

the fight will be. Is it not the truth that if UKIP stays anywhere

near around this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to

win an overall majority? I would say, if it is this level of support,

it is impossible for the Tories to finish as the biggest party, even in

a hung Parliament. The Tories keep trying to win back UKIP voters with

cold logic - witches it makes Ed Miliband becoming prime minister

more likely. UKIP is basically a vessel phenomenon, coming from the

gut, and David Cameron has never found the emotional pitch in his

rhetoric to meet that. I wonder whether we will see that moron

Wednesday. It is just not him. I hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I

hope you're right that we do actually engage on emotion. So far

with UKIP, our policy has been to insult them. It does not work. I

know that from my constituency. We have to say to them, there is a

wider Tory family, we understand you are patria, we understand you are

worried about your family, and we do the same. What does it tell us about

the state of the Tories, seven months from the election, the

economy is going well, they are not that far behind Labour, and yet

there is all sorts of leadership speculation? It is extraordinary.

They are doing well, they are in with a shout. It depends. UKIP has

to be kept below 9% of. -- below 9%. I think David Cameron is one of

the few who speaks human, actually talks quite well to people and does

not look like a swivel-eyed loons. Whereas a lot of people behind him

do. You look at Duncan Smith and Eric Pickles, they are all kind of

driven, ideological men, with very right-wing policies. And nice

people! Don't hold back! He is not the Addams family, he is basically

quite human. I think a lot of people do not realise how ideological he is

himself and how well he has led his party in the direction they all want

to go. You go on about him being this metropolitan moderniser, I do

not think that is what he is, really. It may not be visible from

the guardian offices in the metropolis! Everybody where you are,

Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser. And where you are, too. That is the

nature of living in London. The trouble is, when these people get

into Westminster, they are part of Westminster, too. If you could only

win by being an outsider, the moment you get in, you are done for. All

teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson to be the next leader? I do not

think so! The point of my Exocet, or lever, this morning, is that I think

this is winnable. If we are good Tories for the next six months, we

can do this. It is by denying ground to UKIP, not giving in to them, not

buckling. Denying ground. Thank you to our panel. They did all right

today, but the normal. That is your lot for today. I am back tomorrow.

We will have live coverage of George Osborne's speech to the conference.

I am back next week in Glasgow for The Sunday Politics at the Labour

conference. How could you miss that? Remember, if it is Sunday it

is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye of statutory press regulation in

sponge cake may be a bridge too far. I think I've overdone it

with the pistachios and somehow, the custard's split,

but it's too late! of statutory press regulation in

sponge cake may be a bridge too far.