27/11/2016 Sunday Politics North West

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?

After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.

Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency

The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.

Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms

of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?

Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet

minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.

Why Daisy could be left counting the cost. Is the county being swept

And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

They'll be tweeting throughout the programme

Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news

of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came

to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader

as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social

justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"

President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader

as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death

would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people

finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".

Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,

Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader

was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged

I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the

reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I

noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to

Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he

was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,

agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many

people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been

inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream

consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this

respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would

be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.

Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have

looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection

for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error

dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?

He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He

wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually

look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other

countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a

champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been

utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have

thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic

failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when

Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the

debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any

criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There

were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would

have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban

solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It

existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,

who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday

saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the

world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He

never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks

ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The

lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated

stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was

working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there

will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet

and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say

it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism

that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime

Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to

open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing

brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.

When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying

the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as

all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a

leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either

decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it

was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure

worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.

There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they

sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris

Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to

deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.

And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr

Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.

That was what made it so fascinating.

Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS

in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020

on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth

Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling

"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,

but some of the proposals are already running into local

opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.

Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.

But east of England ambulance call operators

they're sending an early intervention vehicle

with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.

It's being piloted here for over 65s with

When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be

treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.

Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,

taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,

So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided

The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able

to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,

to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand

where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how

best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems

that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.

This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how

You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.

The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.

What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.

Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went

through after broad public and political consultation

with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.

It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS

trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.

It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide

The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS

in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion

worth of efficiencies across the country.

In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health

and care partnerships, and each one will provide

a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,

provide better services and save money.

So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people

in the health service and local government,

The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending

growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.

STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way

But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number

of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle

ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed

This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his

I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close

all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out

of the acute sector who are elderly and looking

That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,

All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,

But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.

The Government's sustainability and transformation plans

for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.

The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings

within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.

There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.

Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week

about the importance of community hospitals in general,

These are proposals out to consultation.

What could happen if these plans get blocked?

If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come

to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned

deterioration and services becoming unstable and service

The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement

but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs

are in the interests of local people.

Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England

to push through these controversial regional plans,

which will soon face public scrutiny.

We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,

I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,

Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of

efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of

independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22

billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you

drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have

been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that

some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community

pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000

pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and

GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,

which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a

local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these

efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from

Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve

health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable

transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical

health, mental health and social care, for those services to

collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented

system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground

has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,

the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By

2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to

redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the

money in. So of course, getting these services working better

together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would

have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the

last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is

an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?

Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22

billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.

But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they

said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have

changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by

2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by

20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually

transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the

commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been

cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year

project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the

Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week

there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the

efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by

2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now

for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with

everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers

and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I

had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they

expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by

now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?

To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The

budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like

co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a

plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in

2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is

committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently

John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are

talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current

spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the

money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If

you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from

the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?

That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for

Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to

give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the

Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do

it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give

the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like

any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what

the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.

I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election

with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has

been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.

You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not

a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment

to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting

a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about

4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that

substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have

access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to

be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap

in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what

this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an

efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we

agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see

productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through

investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.

One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They

are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe

that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that

contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking

about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30

billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend

more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper

care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40

billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the

account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that

and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with

that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we

are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the

investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.

The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in

A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in

hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save

the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the

Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What

I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your

reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi

Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger

of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree

with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a

result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just

going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of

these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see

if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they

have the support of local authorities because they now have a

role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the

right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.

We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they

don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,

you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with

finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are

cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like

5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector

in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long

term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very

sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the

sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,

which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy

nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of

the other countries, European countries included, we need to put

up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the

Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me

down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up

with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European

average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,

but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need

substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was

extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the

Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,

whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to

us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.

Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations

before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait

for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote

If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats

and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU

referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before

And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested

that the referendum result could be reversed.

In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,

Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,

having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis

John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting

of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit

were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".

He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"

That prompted the former Conservative leader

Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.

He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply

because they disagree with the original result does

seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."

So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms

of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?

Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect

the will of the people and that means they must have their say

in a referendum on the terms of the deal."

But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support

One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.

He backs the idea of a second referendum.

But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,

"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting

To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum

on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two

In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,

and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister

Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have

spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or

you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the

referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I

said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we

will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but

we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the

British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would

then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's

lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,

you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on

immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many

fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be

a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many

occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different

thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be

true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the

destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about

the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be

appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft

Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more

difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign

but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on

the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on

what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and

putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous

idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an

impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make

sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard

Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum

campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means

making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected

politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting

control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was

clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million

votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more

than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14

million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very

clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we

going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to

trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better

place. OK, I need to get a debate going.

Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was

going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a

second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the

worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a

ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could

go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the

European Union is less important than the opinion of the British

people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me

precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain

voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson

and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the

range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.

There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,

getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,

this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.

The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our

laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of

what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would

be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the

hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The

biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British

history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally

proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a

strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks

like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.

He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct

possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a

second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on

ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British

people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and

keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to

that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying

attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have

to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said

that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,

they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European

Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the

process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why

Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to

ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote

by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it

best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would

have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because

I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.

Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The

central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a

destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if

it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be

undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on

the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain

members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs

union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude

towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the

government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have

no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental

case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a

clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment

figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do

to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not

delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,

wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people

who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it

will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the

whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is

very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the

answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and

French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it

not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it

would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I

think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't

been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in

Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.

They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic

process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen

suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the

government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to

listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,

as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second

referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it

there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have

eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

Hello. Coming up: why Daisy could be left counting the cost of Cumbria's

infighting. The reality is devolution is the only game in town

and if we don't want to get play and if we don't want to get play

that game we are going to get left behind. And chewing the cud over the

Autumn Statement, my two guests. The Autumn Statement was the big news

this week. Was there enough specific in it for our region? Definitely. It

sets out what we need to do to tackle the challenges of the

Northwest. ?13 billion has been reconfirmed for the North in terms

of infrastructure. Is that new stuff? Yeah, the button has been

pressed for the M-16, improvements. New money on our and D. ?2 billion a

year, which will be vitally important for life sciences,

critical for Manchester and Cheshire as well. ?556 million promised for

deals which will be allocated by our deals which will be allocated by our

enterprise partnership. That's an important package that will really

help take forward the Northern Powerhouse. Anything you want to see

which wasn't in there? I think this Autumn Statement helped to set out

some stability and help build confidence. It was a good package.

Lucy, presumably you don't agree. We have seen the nail in the coffin of

six years of austerity from the Conservative government. Posterity

has now failed and its own terms because the deficit is now going to

be just about half in the next three years and it wasn't in 2010. They

said they were going to eliminated by now. It would reduce the deficit

even slower than the Labour Party even slower than the Labour Party

reduced -- promised to do six years ago. Posterity has failed to provide

the investment and support the economy needed to grow. That's why

we are seeing... What was the Labour and suffer these problems? We've got

to invest in the future, invest in people, making sure people have the

skills and education. We are seeing huge cuts to education and skills

budgets. It's a false economy. We cannot be the high wage, high skill

economy. We are still seeing faster growth in Germany and France as

well. -- faster growth than Germany and France. We have the worst

productivity in the Western world pretty much which means we have

people here working longer for less because we've got a very unstable

workforce, doing short hours or in and out of work. Very insecure work.

We have really got to have a big ambition here to be a country that

has got high skilled, high wage secure labour market. Thanks both of

you. The gloomy economic forecast made most headlines although the

rise in the minimum wage and spending on some major projects were

among the measures. In one part of our region, Cumbria, there are

concerns that the county is being left behind.

I am the fifth generation to farm here. James Robinson's family have

had their farm outside candle for more than 140 years. When his great,

great grandfather came here in 1875, one thing he didn't have to worry

about was slow broadband. Broadband has been atrocious in the past two

years. We are lucky that we are fairly close to town so we get a

reasonable speed. It's still not brilliant. Don't have to go too far

away over the hill towards the village and its atrocious over

there. We do think... We are fairly lucky but it's... The Chancellor has

promised to spend ?1 billion to improve broadband speeds, good news

you would think for James and others living in rural areas of south

Cumbria. The campaigners planning to install their

broadband here it will not help broadband here it will not help

them. Commercial companies will be using that money and they will be

wanting to make a profit and it will be used in towns. Our rural areas

will not be helped at all. If you miles away and this is exactly what

Philip Hammond wants to see. This is a four-bedroom family home. 94 new

houses are being built here on the edge of candle and unusually, half

of them are affordable homes. Any extra money is good news. I'm

thinking in particular of the shift of emphasis from homeownership to

the suggestion that we want rented housing. It can only be seen as good

news for the whole sector. Philip Hammond says he wants economy to be

match fit for Brexit. That includes investing in better broadband and

new homes like these. He also believes that every part of the

country should get its share of economic success. Political

opponents however say they are already struggling to get vital

investment. It's a frustration to us that we are not getting the funding

we need. The local enterprise partnership, bidding for ?165

million for Cumbria, and we understand we have a small figure of

?16 million. But those behind the bid say politicians need to face

reality. Devolution is the only game in town and if we don't want to play

that game, we are going to get left behind. That was spelt out quite

clearly by Greg Clark earlier in the year. He has gone and done exactly

what we were told would happen. While some in this idyllic part of

the Northwest clearly feel neglected by Westminster, others believe the

opportunities are there to get the investment they desperately need.

The money Cumbria was hoping for is part of the government's ?1.8

billion regional growth fund. Eleanor spoke to the Northern

Powerhouse investor and asked if the county was getting its fair share.

?556 million of that is going to the North of England. That is the lions

share that budget. This was a fund which was over bid by three or four

times so it's not a surprise if local enterprise partnerships

putting bids in above their fair share will be disappointed. The

truth is on Cumbria, they will receive more money per head than

London. Is it right that those areas with elected mayors are getting more

cash? When you have a directly elected structure through these

mayoral combined authorities, what you have their is you have a

demonstration that everybody is working together to the same

economic goals will stop people working strategically. It makes

sense to invest where people have come together with a definite plan

for the region. We are being told that system won't work for them so

isn't it an fair they should lose out in terms of support for the

local economy? We're putting record investment into transport and into

infrastructure across the North, regardless of whether or not people

have a mayor. Where there are Merrill structures, there are

additional funding pots that come with that, precisely because areas

have demonstrated they have a plan and can deliver on it. When we give

them this extra investment, they can guarantee they will create new jobs,

new housing and employment developments. That is the reason why

there are these investments. David, we heard the concerns in

Cumbria. Do you feel Cheshire was also in danger of being left behind?

We need to make sure we create a combined authority. I know Cheshire

Cheshire West want to. Now it is Cheshire West want to. Now it is

down to Warrington. It's vital we do because we could collaborate with

Manchester, Liverpool and challenge where we are. There needs to be that

counterweight. That's the missing ingredient at the moment. It's

important we take it forward. I appeal to councillors to think about

the opportunities. I think we can achieve something really good for

our region. You don't feel it is focused too much on big cities?

Possibly is currently but credit to Manchester, they've led the way.

Others are trying to catch up. What we need to do now is make sure we

get the city and county working together because their strengths in

both areas. When we together and work together, we can achieve

amazing things. That's what we need to do. Lucy, what is your view on

Shire counties? Do they need to get their act together? They definitely

need to have extra support and investment. There's no question of

that. But I think what we've seen over the last few years, and it's a

welcome development, is that the government is prepared to go the

speed of the fastest, not wait for everyone to catch up and only then

start issuing these sorts of funds when everybody is at the same level.

Allowing Manchester to lead the way, which it has been doing, and we've

got lots of extra powers in Manchester that other places won't

get, we can demonstrate the model and transform the way in which we

deliver services. And hopefully transform the local economy. Other

places can catch up. That would be a good thing for them as well. Back to

the Autumn Statement. We have something here, the Northern

Powerhouse strategy. Things you like in here? I mention some of those at

the beginning. There is extra focus on infrastructure and that ?556

million that will be made available for the North. There is a really

clear narrative there that everybody is being brought into. We have

political differences but when we get together, we can create

something that can be globally significant. There is a huge prize

and that's why we've got to make sure in Cheshire we get a combined

authority and we work with Manchester and Liverpool. I think it

sets out a good strategy. Whatever you think of this, at least the

government has a strategy. Does Labour have anything similar?

Absolutely. We support the push of the Northern Powerhouse. There has

been a concern on my part and on the part of the Labour Party since

Theresa May took over that we saw for a few weeks there are lots of

quiet evening on the idea of a Northern Powerhouse. I was told that

one of the ministers in that department wasn't allowed the phrase

Northern Powerhouse in a press release. Number ten wouldn't clear

it for a while because the emphasis now seems to be on the engine of the

West Midlands or Birmingham. If they can carry on that emphasis, because

I do think it's been a William important not just PR emphasise,

although that has been important to get attention to the north, but it

has come with devolution and powers. We need to see that accelerating.

Recent evidence has shown the gap between London and the south-east

and the North and the is at its greatest ever. This is an urgent

task to make sure we've got that economic growth here in the

north-west that we need. And with high-speed two and further plans in

place for better links between Manchester and Leeds, these are

really meaningful infrastructure changes which are going to take

place. I think it's going to help move these things forward. This is a

classic example whether you are red or blue, when to make sure this

works. There is strength in collaboration on this. I am sure you

in Westminster and in your in Westminster and in your

constituencies but in the nation, we're not producing enough according

to the Chancellor. He is providing a to the Chancellor. He is providing a

?23 billion investment fund and ?2 billion for research and

development. Will the Northwest's crucial science sector get what they

need? From malaria treatments tested in

Liverpool to ultra thin graphene discovered in Manchester, our

science and technology sector is having a global impact. But is it in

a fair fight with the Golden Triangle of Oxford, Cambridge and

London just a few hundred miles away? This project can be more than

just a transport link. It can become a transformational Tech corridor.

The Chancellor promised Oxford and Cambridge new road and railway is

this week. He also promised ?2 billion for research and development

in the UK tech sector but will that cash be heading up here? The private

sector spends double what the public sector spends. The government spends

7% of R and D in the north. We would like to see the government meet that

more pounds spent in the North. It more pounds spent in the North. It

would be very helpful for the Northern economy. This business in

Runcorn helps provide the science skills to change food waste. Is

looking to expand but bosses are uncertain about the final details of

the money. Particularly with Brexit, we are concerned about the fund

availability for research and development. Although new programmes

have been notified in the Chancellor potluck statement, it's not clear

how quickly they will be brought to bear and will allow us to develop

further. -- Autumn Statement. Staff gravitating from science parks like

this one in Runcorn towards London is a problem. If think tank report

this week highlighted the so call brain drain, 13 times as many

graduates had to London compared with Manchester. Malaria is a

terrible thing that kills 600,000 children every year. Bill Gates

found his way to the Liverpool School of tropical medicine to help

fund its malaria research but some fund its malaria research but some

graduates have not been as willing as him to head north. Once we get

people here, they don't go away and Oxford and Cambridge don't get them

back. It's getting people to realise that when they actually come here,

they get a better standard of living, there is clearly a centre of

expertise you that people ought to be gravitating to and working with.

That is happening to an extent but don't think government is

recognising it as much as it could or should. The School of tropical

medicine is building a new ?25 million laboratory. That they won

support from the government to enable them to fill it with staff,

doing life changing work. doing life changing work.

Joining us now is Andrew Carter from the Centre for cities, which has

worked with areas including Warrington and Manchester on

economic growth. Cheap released a report this week which was stark on

web graduates head. Explain what the brain drain is about. We are

interested in how graduates move around, both to study and where they

go after work. What we found was 25% of new graduates that are working

six months after they finish university, they are working in

London. To give you some sense, the numbers for Manchester and Liverpool

5% and 2%. There is quite a large difference between this graduates

and where they end up as opposed to where they study. However, I think

it's important to remember that there is good news for the

Northwest, particularly when you look at Manchester and Liverpool.

Both of them gain graduates when you think about those graduates that

move off to go somewhere else or they actually stay there because

they are born there and studied. Both Liverpool and Manchester are

quite good gainers in the sense they have more graduates at the end of

the period than they did at the start. There are things to build on.

Nevertheless, they are mindful on the poll of London. It's quite a

challenge for our politicians. Is that something government can do a

lot about? Do businesses have to do more to attract people to Manchester

and Liverpool? Absolutely right. What you clearly find is that

graduates that do move move for economic opportunities. Jobs is

important. Actually, careers as well. Often, it's not the first job

you get that you necessarily move for, it's the second or the third. I

think that the vital difference between places like London and maybe

some other places. They can offer this service -- second and third job

and they wage increases that people are looking for. It's thinking about

how we can create more graduate jobs, more high skilled jobs in our

cities, Liverpool, Manchester, Warrington and these other places.

I'll come back to you shortly. David, are we to London centric? The

amazing thing is we've only been talking about the Northern

Powerhouse for the last two years. The agenda has moved on

dramatically, the narrative has changed, the infrastructure has

changed. That said, there is more to do to make sure we've got more

really attractive growth prospects in the region. If we can get

Manchester moving, even better. Then we've got AstraZeneca in

Macclesfield with great opportunities there. They are an

example of a company where jobs have gone down south. They moved their

research and development function to Cambridge. They do good science I

understand. A lot of people didn't want to move down because the point

that is being made is, once people get established in the north and

they see the quality of life here and the great people and the

countryside, why would they want to go anywhere else? It's the same with

the BBC moving up here. The number the BBC moving up here. The number

of people who said we will try it and now they are really pleased

they've made the change. There is science in your constituency, too.

The government are backing companies in your constituency. We are seeing

more investment but it needs to be considerably more because the point

that your guest was making was a very good one. People need to have

careers in Manchester and in the north-west that we do have some good

companies and good initiatives, things like graphene or the health

and life sciences in Manchester and Cheshire. But you need the large

grouping of effective companies and government institutions that people

can have a whole career here. That's why we need a stronger industrial

strategy around some of these key sectors for the region. We need

backed up by the Right kind of investment in the right way, whether

it be in transport infrastructure or research, grants and science grants

which still massively go to London and the south-east compared with the

Northwest. That's unacceptable. Andrew, we've heard a lot about

productivity. What is that? Let's use an example. Everybody likes

baking nowadays. In an hour, in the UK, let's say the average worker

produces two cakes in that hour. When you look at other places like

France or America, they are producing three cakes or 3.5 cakes

in that hour. If you look at places like Manchester or Liverpool and

Burnley, Blackburn and Warrington, those sorts of places are all below

the UK average on productivity. Infrastructure is very important but

the big issue for the Northwest and particularly for its cities are the

low skills of much of its resident population. We should be investing

in our schools and our people to improve the skills base of those

people. Those people with higher skills are more productive. Thank

you very much for joining us. We need to up our game here. That is

clear. We are pushing hard on apprenticeships. When you look at

technical training over decades, we've not done a good enough job

there and that is now moving forward. I think that's exciting.

There is an opportunity now with the exchange rate being lowered to do

more exports. What you find is that more businesses export, they become

more productive. They learn from other businesses and find ways to

lower their unit costs. The thing is, if you talk about productivity,

that's one thing but that what that will eat it was more jobs and also

sustainably increased wages. That is what we will want to see. Now it's

about taking the strategies forward to deliver on that. That's the big

thing we've heard about, wages and stagnation of wages. That needs to

be tackled. This was the key message out of the Autumn Statement, what a

decade we've got ahead of stagnant wages whilst costs are rising and

house prices are going up. This key issue of investing in people is

absolutely critical and I'm afraid that for all their talk, the

government are going backwards in that regard. We are seeing for the

first time in over 25 years cuts to schools budgets, further education

has seen the budget slashed by 30% over the last six years. The early

years, where social mobility and where people's life chances are set,

the equality in the early years is going backwards under this

government. The social mobility report which was at last week that

David damning indictment of what this government are doing on social

mobility is a key part of the story as well. We've got to make sure all

our people, not just those that are good enough to rise to the top but

that everybody is able to upscale and to live a life to their full

potential. We are going to have to leave it there. Time for the rest of

the week's news now. She was Kevin Fitzpatrick.

Bad decisions, poor attitudes and chronic staff shortages. The

findings of a report into these hospitals which the trust tried to

keep secret. We have investigated thoroughly. We've met with the

families and I hope we've dealt with them sincerely and sensitively.

David Morris denied claiming expenses for journeys in his

constituency while he was away on foreign trips. He blamed an

antiquated expenses system. South Lackland councils accused of

dragging its feet over payments to protect homes from future flooding.

This couple are still waiting. It is prolonged and prolonged. We are

getting nowhere. We've tried to make phone calls and nothing happens. The

women's equality party is holding its first-ever party conference in

Manchester. The leader of Trafford Council has been selected as the

Conservative candidate for mayor of greater candidate -- magister.

The election is in May. That's all we've got time for this week. Thanks

to my guests. I will hand you back to Andrew.

have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to

you. Is Theresa May serious

about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's

successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off

a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the

executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in

the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if

they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband

proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She

is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an

apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up

for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes

back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and

becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the

country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures

you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense

of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her

own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the

board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback

position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into

some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever

they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When

you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the

ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the

company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you

kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of

that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about

this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party

conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government

can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and

Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the

internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C

Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is

the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a

report which came out with similar proposals, which were never

implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business

leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are

problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess

is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the

implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some

business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on

the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it

does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning

ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a

great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any

suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners

get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong

with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the

higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make

that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.

Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There

was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on

boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But

quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that

was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering

shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they

hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic

argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is

that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to

Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done

it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is

it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In

Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of

showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go

with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result

tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne

Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next

leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall

and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul

Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household

name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and

find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip

together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If

anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the

thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It

would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting

Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North

America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the

chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the

north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.

But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.

The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know

the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would

suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be

honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.

Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call

a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty

Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it

can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The

number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which

should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a

debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and

they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a

powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But

he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond

in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it

turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a

by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will

know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU

referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping

Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on

for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage

to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum

despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the

party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have

absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit

of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and

people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand

that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this

one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a

period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the

Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near

moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in

this shapeless political world we are in are going to become

significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night

yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.

Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early

hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I

want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this

morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually

cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that

all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and

physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,

particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the

mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that

we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So

economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his

forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert

forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,

which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You

would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,

and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if

governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the

basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to

go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast

will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are

navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it

was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these

forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put

the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a

clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up

with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't

trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who

borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip

Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence

Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a

huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically

said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a

very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a

department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else

thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are

part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more

Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One

next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics. to signify the Africans

who were here. The story of Henry VIII

and his six wives