06/10/2013 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news and interviews. With Lord Prescott, Godfrey Bloom MEP, Chuka Umunna, Margot James MP and City AM's Allister Heath.

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Morning, folks, welcome to the Sunday Politics. And in-out EU


referendum before the general election? We talk to the Tory rebel


demanding one next year, that is our top story. As government ministers


prepare to decide how the press should be regulated, what will be


the impact of this week's row should be regulated, what will be


between the Daily Mail and Ed Miliband?


You are talking about the colour of peoples faces?!


And in Northern Ireland, another major international investment


conference taking place here this week. We will ask Arlene Foster what


He will try to force a vote in the Commons to hold the poll next


October. Home Secretary Theresa May was asked about his plans on the BBC


earlier this morning. I think he has got it wrong, I think what we need


to do is to negotiate the settlement with the European Union and then put


that to the people me to decide whether to be in or out. Is this a


flea bite or a real threat? I think what is crucial is that we have, at


the next election, a Conservative Party that will be offering people


that renegotiation, a new settlement with Europe, looking to the future


and putting that to the British people in and in or out referendum.


And what the amendment possibly could do, as James Wharton, who was


putting the Referendum Bill through Parliament has said, is it could


jeopardise that bill. Adam Afriyie joins us now from Millbank studio.


Good morning. If the referendum would be held next October, it would


have to be an in-out question based the status quo? There wouldn't be


time for a full renegotiation. I disagree. By having a referendum in


2014, it gives us 12 months to renegotiate, but it kick-started


negotiations, because the European Union, if they wish us to remain


members, would need to accommodate and make changes so that they would


persuade the British public to stay, if that is what they want. It


strengthens the Prime Minister's hand, and 12 months is ample time


for that kind of negotiation. You might think that, but Germany has


not even got a government at the moment, why should they meet our


timetable? This is going to be incredibly, located renegotiation. I


think, basically, 80% of people want a referendum. More than 50% what a


referendum this side of the election. British businesses need


certainty, and we could carry on taking a scan down the road for


ever, but I have struggled with my conscience over this one. I do not


want to cause trouble, but it is essential that Parliament and MPs


have the opportunity to search their souls and give people a referendum


this side of the election. That would also bring certainty and


clarity for the future, and like I said, it strengthens the Prime


Minister's hand if it is successful. You right in the Mail on Sunday that


the people are not convinced there even will be a referendum, so they


don't trust David Cameron? I think the headline was not the headline I


wrote for that piece. What I am saying is a very calm analysis...


You are saying that the British people are not convinced. Look,


there are too many uncertainties here - they may not be convinced the


Conservatives will win the election, I hope we will, they may not be


convinced the renegotiation will be good enough, that there will be a


referendum. Do you trust David Cameron to deliver a referendum?


That is why we need to bring the referendum forward, there is time to


negotiate, and we tidy up the issue that has been hanging around for too


long. Do you trust David Cameron to deliver a referendum in 2017? I


completely support the Prime Minister, and of course I trust the


completely support the Prime Prime Minister. To deliver a


referendum? There as only variables in between. What I am doing with


referendum? There as only variables this amendment, is to try to be sure


is that Parliament and every MP has the opportunity decide whether they


want to be sure of a referendum within this parliament, or maybe


leave it to the vagaries of what may within this parliament, or maybe


happen in 2015. Supposing you got your way, how would you vote? Like


Michael Gove, I would vote for us to leave as of today, but there will be


Michael Gove, I would vote for us to an enormous amount of pressure on


European Union leaders to come forward with proposals. If they were


to say, the mandate is not ever closer political union, it is ever


closer trading harmony, giving us more border control and control over


our legal system, I might change my mind. But this is what needs to


happen - if we have a referendum in 2014, 12 months is time for


negotiations to be kick-started and people to argue in or out, and the


end result is a stronger Prime Minister. Is it true that you have


got about 80 MPs supporting this? It is cross-party, that is for


certain, and I think we will see it on hold over the next three or five


weeks. He will have to ask each individual MP. I am asking you, it


is your motion! There will be other motions coming forward, and I know


there is widespread support, cross-party, for people who want the


British public to have a say in 2014. You know it is not going to


get through, the whips will stop this from happening. One of the


successes, apparently, of your party's Manchester conference was


that you were not divided over Europe anymore, the Europe issue was


settled. Here you are bringing it Europe anymore, the Europe issue was


back to life and pouring petrol on the flames - are you now the


unlicensed troublemaker of the Tories? The only struggle I have had


is not a fight with my party but Tories? The only struggle I have had


with my conscience as to whether or not I would give Parliament and the


British people an opportunity to have a say in 2014. I wrestled with


it, and I decided I wanted people to have that opportunity. It is for


each individual MP to search their soul, speak to constituents and


decide whether they want that. You decided it would get you in the


headlines again. Oh, you are so cynical, Andrew! I have no ambition


in that direction, I am not a publicity seeker. All I seek is for


the British people do have this. I would not be able to sleep at night


if I did not bring forward this opportunity for Britain to have its


say. We have left it far too long. Nobody under the age of 56 has had a


say. Thanks for joining us, good luck with this continuing struggle


with your conscience! I will move the seat around and addressed the


panel, what do you make of it? The party managers must be furious with


him. I think what this confirms is that David Cameron is incredibly


lucky in his enemies. His most prolific critics, Nadine Dorries,


Peter Bone, Adam Afriyie, even if you are very anti-Cameron, you will


not think, man, if only they were in charge of the party! I think the


party managers are not too alarmed. They do not take him seriously? No,


it is not a frivolous amendment. It is not as if the James Wharton bill


is a work of genius, it is riddled with flaws, anomalies and loopholes.


It purports to guarantee that a referendum will take place in the


next Parliament. My understanding of the constitution is that is


theoretically impossible and that all the future government would do


is cancel out that bill with another bill. He does have a point that


Cameron's plan for a referendum is nothing like as likely to happen...


Hung parliaments, frivolous amendments can be immensely


dangerous. The problem for David Cameron is twofold. One, if Ed


Miliband says he's going to support Adam Afriyie, it will go through.


Unlikely that Ed Miliband would do that, but what he might do is say to


his MPs, ignore this. It may well be that the Labour payroll and a


significant number of Labour MPs do not turn up, and then what you have


got is a war between the Conservative payroll and the


Conservative backbenchers, and in that war you might well find that


Adam Afriyie's amendment goes through, and then the Prime Minister


has real trouble, because Adam Afriyie says, the Prime Minister


could renegotiate terms of membership, up what basis and with


which mandate? He would not be able to get agreement with Nick Clegg or


Ed Miliband, so you would be looking at Adam Afriyie voting to leave. I


think he is a Labour mole, that is what I have come to, a Daily Mail


style conspiracy theory, it could not be more perfect. The prospect of


style conspiracy theory, it could a referendum on the EU at the same


time as Scottish independence is what no-one once, so that is it. He


has told us he could not sleep at night, wrestling with his


conscience. We could send him some pills, I suppose. We know he's going


to sack all those lieutenants were going around and saying he is the


great future and the next leader of the Conservative Party. He denied


doing that! He would be amazed to hear you say that, this is a crisis


of conscience. Whispered conversations in corridors, quite an


operation to get letters into Graham Brady, he said to have letters, not


46, but at the moment this campaign is being run by Lieutenant of Adam


Afriyie. He has got lieutenants? They are disaffected and not happy


under David Cameron's leadership. There is a whole army of them! I am


pleased he has outmanoeuvred the awkward squad, and now James Wharton


is saying, you're going to kill my bill. I do not think they are very


competence lieutenants. The main political consequence of this


episode is it will unify a large chunk of the Colin Hendry


Conservative Party behind David Cameron. On what they hope is a


settled position. We still hope to be talking to John Prescott, who is


in hole, if you see him, pointing in the direction of the BBC studios! Do


you want to buy a house? Can you afford the mortgage repayments but


not the 20% or 30% deposit the mortgage provider is demanding from


you? The Government says it has a scheme designed for you which is in


launching next week, help to buy, and it should lead to the


re-emergence of 95% mortgages, remember them?! But is the policy


really good for home-buyers or the British economy? Here is Giles.


Never mind who lives in a house like this, who can afford to buy a house


these days? The Government would this, who can afford to buy a house


like many more people to be able to without putting down a crippling


amount of money as a deposit, and in the spirit of rights to buy, the


government has launched help to buy, confusingly it is the name for two


different schemes. The first scheme, Help to Buy 1, has


been running since April. Help to Buy 2 was supposed to come in


January next year, but the government are bringing it in early.


Let's get in on the inside and take a good look around at what this


scheme actually has to offer. And why the Government thinks it really


works. Help to Buy 1 was an equity loan scheme. The idea, nice, is that


it was for new build only, up to a value of £600,000. But it is Help to


Buy 2 that everyone is looking into right now. It is for any property up


to a value, again, of £600,000. This time the Government is guaranteeing


that it will take on the first losses should the home owner in the


future failed to make their mortgage payments. Don't worry about that, if


you are a buyer, you are going to be concerned about coming up with the


5% deposit and 95% mortgages will be available again in participating


banks and building societies. And that, the Prime Minister thinks, is


a housing prime mover. You cannot get training to 5% mortgage anymore,


90% even, so there are couples in our country who have good jobs,


decent incomes, they could afford the mortgage payments but they


cannot buy the house. It is a failure in our banking market. So


that is the Prime Minister, Jonathan, but I guess for you this


is not Homes Under The Hammer, but a scheme which should be hammered. The


main impact of this scheme will be to push up prices, who does that


benefit? Mostly rich and all the people who own their houses. Plus


the banks, of course, because it is a subsidy for them. Who loses?


People who want to buy a house in the future. Moreover, it is a bit


odd that the Government says it is not OK to borrow to finance schools


or roads, but it is fine for the Government to take on more debt,


effectively, in order to guarantee 95% mortgages and pump up the


housing market. 2.3 million? I do not think Help to Buy covers that.


But enter a would-be buyer, will they now be seeing a plethora of


help to buy mortgages? In a word, no. David Cameron has brought the


announcement forward by three months, and banks were not ready at


that stage. Two banks have committed to fund the scheme, the Lloyds group


and the RBS group, so lenders like Halifax, RBS and NatWest. They will


be doing the scheme, but even once the scheme is up and running you are


not going to see Help to Buy mortgages badged up. You will


probably find 95% mortgages on the high street because of the guarantee


the government is offering. People might say this is how we got into a


mess in the first place. Why would the government want to make those


products available then now? It was more what investment banks were


doing in the background that caused the problems. Mortgages have


performed extremely well through the depths of the downturn. Is this a


game changer? Yes, I have done my best to save over the last few years


but this has enabled me to make that first purchase. How frustrating was


it just renting? Very frustrating, you are throwing away money hand


over fist, and now I can take that leap to being an owner. His


enthusiasm raises a question back at the flat. If you are looking for a


95% mortgage, you don't really care what will happen in the wider


economy, you are thinking, great, I can buy a house. Yes, if I was a


house buyer or a bank, I would be pleased, but it will do longer term


economic damage. The tricky steps the government are trying to pull


off is that home-buyers might be so grateful for the opportunity to buy


their own homes that they reward the Government with the vote, while at


the same time the Government tries to sidestep consequences that such a


scheme might create. Now Conservative MP Margot James,


and Allister Heath, editor of City AM, go head to head.


It is said by the critics that this scheme will cause a housing bubble.


Where is the evidence? House prices are more varied. Housing not just in


London remains overvalued and the problem with this scheme is that it


will pump up house prices, it will not increase the supply and


therefore houses will become even more overvalued. That is a dangerous


territory, last time it ended in tears, and now the Government is


taking on the risk of that policy. What do you say to that? We have a


real problem, it takes people on average until they are 38 years old


until they can buy their own property. The problem is not that


they cannot afford it, but they cannot afford the deposit. We have


got to do something to allow people to get their feet on the property


ladder and I don't agree it will cause a boom in house prices. It


would if we were not building any new houses, but we are. Are you? We


have had a record this year, 12 months to right now, the record for


the last ten years. These are not the statistics I have seen, but the


new supply is coming up. It is starting to creep up. We don't see


enough house building, need to build more houses and that is a solution


to this problem. You are right, people cannot afford to buy homes


and the reason is there are not enough good quality homes in the


right places. The reason the deposits are so high is because


house prices are still too high, and secondly the Government has passed


laws to make the banking system more prudent, telling them to put more


money aside in case things go wrong. Now suddenly the Government


is not happy with the outcome of its own rules and is trying to create


these subsidies to circumvent the rules it has put in place. It is not


a subsidy. Don't forget banks have to pay a charge in order to take


part in this loan scheme and that the... You are guaranteeing the


money. Yes, but the fear is worked out on a commercial basis. The


taxpayer is protected. Why? You are guaranteeing £12 billion worth of


mortgages per year. Yes but the change in the whole mortgage basis


has been made a few years ago in response of the crash. They made the


distressed test on people applying for mortgages much higher and you


have to be able to repay at twice... So it will not be like


these self certification mortgages handed out in America that caused


the sub-prime crisis? Pigment bit like that but the banks are rightly


asking for bigger deposits, they know there is a big chance house


prices could fall if interest rates will go up, which they will


eventually, so they are demanding bigger deposits. The Government is


making sure the risk of circumventing this is being passed


making sure the risk of on to the taxpayers which is why it


is a dangerous policy. Instead they should be massively accelerating


house-building. Which we are. Planning permission is much easier


to get now, we have seen a 49% increase in planning permission for


a new building over the last year, a huge increase. In the figures I saw


recently, they showed new start in the 12 months to the autumn were


only about 110,000 which is the figure you inherited, which was at


an all-time low in 2010. New house built in the last quarter are third


up on the time last year. You have got to give a chance for the


relaxation of planning laws and the other policies the Government put


into effect last year to take effect and it is coming through now. I


agree, if we weren't building more houses, if the construction sector


was not really ready to take advantage of the increased demand,


there would be a risk. David Cameron says you are snob and it is only


snobs who dislike Help To Buy. They don't have the bank of mum and dad,


people like that will finally get on the housing ladder. That is complete


nonsense. We need a sustainable housing market where there is a


large amount of construction, like in the 1930s for example, where


large numbers of proper family homes were being built for people. House


prices were pushed down and people could afford houses. You are now


encouraging people to take out a 95% mortgage, I thought that was a bad


idea, so supposing interest rates go up by a lot, I am going to


struggle, and supposing house prices fall by more than 5%, I am now faced


with negative equity and soaring interest rates that I cannot afford.


95% mortgage, if you can afford the repayments, you will be fine. What


happens when interest rates rise? They have got to rise a lot before


you get into trouble. People are already affording rent which is a


lot higher than mortgage payments. You will not be able to get into


this scheme unless you can afford repayments double what they are at


the moment. The Conservatives should have been enjoying the media


limelight last week but there was an unwelcome intruder in the shape of a


row between Ed Miliband and the Daily Mail. Just over a week ago the


Daily Mail printed an article claiming that Ed Miliband's Father


Ralph hated Britain. They showed a picture of his father's gravestone


with the caption, grave socialist. They then removed the photo and gave


Ed Miliband the right to reply on the Tuesday edition, but also


printed an editorial alongside it saying they stood by every word they


published an fair headline. It also emerged in the week that the


reporter had gate-crashed a private memorial service for Ed Miliband's


uncle in a London hospital, for which the paper has now apologised,


but Ed Miliband has called on the Daily Mail owner to take a long,


hard look at the way his papers are run. This comes a week before a new


system of press regulation is considered at the Privy Council.


Joining us now from Hull, John Prescott. Does this row between Ed


Miliband and the Daily Mail reinforce the case for tough, new


regulation of the press? It certainly influences the opinion


about that but that is more of Paul Dacre's doing. Ed Miliband rang me


while I was in Strasbourg making sure my complaints were nothing to


do with press regulation and he is right. This argument is not about


politicians and media people, it is about ordinary people that love this


and dealt with. All of these cases affected individual people and they


are the ones that need to have justice in this matter. Next week we


will be hearing whether the Privy Council will be reporting on the


proposal to replace it. Are you agreeing then that what the mail did


with its Miliband article was a matter of judgement? Yes, and the


with its Miliband article was a Leveson inquiry came to the


conclusion that the relationship between the press, the police and


politicians should be governed, but this is about how you have a


framework that can be fair to everyone. If you look at the


proposal given by half the press industry that that does not meet the


Leveson requirement and I suspect the Privy Council this week will


have to reject that, and I hope it will because it is not consistent


with the Leveson report which the Prime Minister said he supported.


You attacked the mail in your column today but your paper went through


the Cameron family bins to see what nappies they used for their disabled


son. Isn't that far more offensive than what the Daily Mail wrote about


Ralph Miliband? It probably is, I couldn't defend that. I have had


reporters going through my bins. Haven't we all? Yes, but we are


dealing with the judgement of editors who acts unilaterally. Paul


Dacre is running this thing in the Mail. How can we accept their


judgement and some accountability which the press have accepted the


old PCC is no good. They are playing for time because if they reject it


this week there is 12 months until you can consider a parliamentary


alternative and then you are near the election and you begin to bully


the leaders. That is how they have been successful in putting off


recommendations. Maybe my memory is fading but did you or anybody else


in the Labour Party object to the Sunday Mirror's behaviour? I didn't


know about it. I would just say it is wrong if that is what they did.


As you said, you have the same position when they go through your


rubbish bins, I think that is wrong. We have Leveson set up by the Prime


Minister to look at the cultures and practices and the unilateral action


of editors and he came forward with a proposal that was agreed in


Parliament under a compromise of the Royal Charter. I don't like a Royal


Charter, it is not democratic frankly, but we have agreed to go


along with it so why did the Government set up in charge at the


same time rushed through the press box? It looks like a fix, like they


are using the Royal Charter as a means of delaying everything. They


have now said they are going to introduce their own independent


charter. This industry does not want to face up to any form of


accountability. We know Alistair Campbell and Ed Miliband's officers


accountability. We know Alistair are working closely on the assault


of the Mail. What is the endgame for this? Is it the head of Paul Dacre?


He is not an acceptable character to me, and he needs to be taking


account. When Ed Miliband rang me it was to say, don't let these


arguments drift into press regulation, he wanted the argument


of decency. Are you and Ed Miliband after Paul Dacre's head? No, he can


stay there. It is like with Murdoch, after Paul Dacre's head? No, he can


we were not attacking him but what is papers were doing. To that


extent, what they are doing about ordinary people, not just big


politicians who can look after themselves. We know, with the bad


cases he had to deal with, they might get libel action, which the


press say, but they pretty well destroyed their lives. That is about


judgment. If you say, as Paul Dacre got good judgment? I would say no,


he will have to live with it. Thank you for joining us, he did not


even have to go to the BBC studios, we sent a truck there for him. What


is the endgame in this? Whether the Labour Party is trying to make this


an issue press regulation are not, this is where it is going. We have


the criminal trial involving Andy Coulson coming up, the Privy Council


discussing press radiation before the end of the year, and the


question is, what is political impact? My hunch, it is an


unfashionable view, is that the total at yum elated political impact


of the Leveson story over the past several years, hacking and


everything, is close to zero, because most voters do not care, and


those who do care believe that all parties are roughly complicit in


being too close to editors and proprietors. You said that Adam


Afriyie was a Labour mould, with a smile. Is the Daily Mail also a


Labour mole? This has been a dream for Ed Miliband, I took on Murdoch,


I am taking on the energy companies and now the evil Daily Mail! I


think... I should say I used to work for the Daily Mail, but when they


printed the right of reply, they surrounded it with a big two fingers


up at Ed. If they had not done surrounded it with a big two fingers


that, they would not be in this position. The poll in the Sunday


Times this morning shows 72% think the Daily Mail was wrong and backed


Mr Miliband's demand for an apology. If you come to define and your dad,


people are naturally going to do this, but it took all the coverage


away from the Tory conference, the media loves covering itself, here we


are doing it again, this has been a dream for Mr Miliband. The political


significance of this is that David Cameron said in the House of Commons


that he wanted to try to find some common ground between the three


party Royal Charter and the so-called press industry version.


What the Daily Mail has done is ensured that the Prime Minister is


not going to be able to do that. What is going to happen this week is


that the press Royal Charter has to be considered first, and that will


probably be rejected. The Privy Council will reject it. Then the


three party Royal Charter will come up, but meanwhile the press will set


up their own regulatory body because the Royal Charter is not a proper


statutory underpinning, they will be able to go ahead with that. There


statutory underpinning, they will be will be the legal basis for the


oversight of the oversight body, and it will basically just be an


ambassador that will not be resolved. As you say, no-one much


cares about this outside of the resolved. As you say, no-one much


profession and a few media watchers. But this has been great politics for


Ed Miliband. It is only great politics if he scores a great


victory. I take your view that people are cynical about it. But the


narrative is, I am the chap who stands up to vested interests. But


all those vested interests are stands up to vested interests. But


people that you would expect a left-wing politician to want to take


on. It is also more significant about who he has stood up for, and


the person he has studied for is his father. Maybe people thought of him


as a Marxist, now they think of him as war hero. He gets to the crux of


matters, you know! You are watching the Sunday Politics. Coming up in


just over 20 minutes, I will be speaking to Godfrey


Hello, and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland. With


another international investment conference coming up this week, what


will the Enterprise Minister be hoping it achieves for the economy?


I'll be talking live to Arlene Foster from her Fermanagh


constituency. Voters in the Republic opt to retain the upper house, the


Seanad. So is it a calculated slap in the


face for the Taoiseach, or a vote for democracy? And with me


throughout, journalist Sam McBride and writer Susan McKay.


International investors are coming here this week to be wooed by the


Secretary of State, the First and Deputy First Ministers, and even the


Prime Minister, in an attempt to encourage them to put their money


into Northern Ireland. David Cameron was behind the idea, which he


announced at the end of the G8 summit in Fermanagh earlier this


year. Overall it's been a good year for inward investment, with a number


of major job announcements. Only this week, Stream Global Services, a


US-based call centre business, said it's creating 1000 jobs.


Unemployment is falling and now stands at just below 7%, which is


lower than the UK average. But political divisions still remain at


Stormont, with the Maze/Long Kesh development proving a major


obstacle. So will there be a united front for the visitors? Joining me


from Fivemiletown is the Enterprise Minister, Arlene Foster. Thank you


for joining us on the programme. How optimistic are you that this


conference will deliver anything substantive for the Northern Ireland


economy? I am very optimistic that will happen. This is part of the


economic legacy of the G8 and the will happen. This is part of the


Prime Minister announced it after the G8 took place in Fermanagh, so


we have been working since then to identify potential investors for


Northern Ireland and we believe a number of them will come to Belfast


and be joined by existing investors number of them will come to Belfast


who can advocate for why they came to Northern Ireland and why it is a


good place to invest in. Who is coming specifically that we should


be impressed by? I will not talk about the tension investors for


obvious reasons, that there will be people from the New York Stock


Exchange, from Chicago mercantile, and Northern Ireland is now the


number one in the world for financial technology investment and


I think that is something to be proud of and we will talk about why


that is the case. We have the skills and billable and the infrastructure


in terms of telecoms infrastructure and this is something people mention


a lot, we have accessibility to government, the government can work


well with business. Will there be new companies to Northern Ireland


with no existing presence here at the table? There will, and that is


part of the mix, we have potential investors as well as investors


part of the mix, we have potential already here, but those investors


who are here, 75% of those reinvest into Northern Ireland, so we're not


just looking at new investment but those people already here and how --


what more we can do with them. How should we measure it against the


last investment conference here in 2008,


? Are last conference etc first all as a country which was to do


? Are last conference etc first all business on the world stage, so much


so that Northern Ireland is just behind Greater London as the largest


bringer of investment into the UK, and that is something we should be


proud of. We have only 3% of the population of the UK, yet we brought


in 7% of foreign investment, and population of the UK, yet we brought


that is something we should want to grow after this investment


conference, so it is a chance to set grow after this investment


out our stall, talk about skills and people we have here. We have a young


population and we want to find jobs for them. Twitter made another


population and we want to find jobs announcement in Dublin this week. .


Is the corporation tax differential still a deciding factor in where


investments are made? For the differential remains, big companies


continue to choose the Republic over Northern Ireland. It depends what


companies want. If they want to look Northern Ireland. It depends what


at profits, corporation tax will still be an issue, which is why we


will continue to engage with the Prime Minister on that. He has


delayed a decision until after the Scottish referendum but we will


continue to push on the issue and will have meetings with the Prime


Minister while he is here, but there are other things we can do for


companies around the world. We are cost competitive, we have the


skills, we are a gateway into Europe and the UK, so we had been pushing


all those buttons and that is why we continue to do well in relation to


foreign direct investment. This is happening against a background of


disagreement on political issues, outstanding issues politicians


disagreement on political issues, haven't yet found common ground on.


I am thinking of the Maze Long Kesh project, and the hangover of issues


on flags and parades. We will talk about Twaddell Avenue later.


Yesterday, a senior Orangemen called for the protest to be upscaled as


far as civil disobedience. That's not going to help persuade investors


to choose Northern Ireland next week, is it? We defend the right of


people to protest on any issue, but what must happen, and I make this


clear, people must remain within the law of the land, what we do not want


to see happen, and we are unfortunately did, some people


during the flag protest went out to protest and things went further than


they should have, and those young people now have a criminal


conviction, and I do not want to see people now have a criminal


young people in Belfast or anywhere else blighted with a criminal


conviction for something they will regret, and people need to step back


and look at that when they talk about what they are doing. We have


just shown viewers pictures from yesterday to your DUP colleagues,


one of them your fellow executive Minister Nelson McCausland, standing


behind the Orangemen, flanked by Minister Nelson McCausland, standing


comment loyalists, as he called for Minister Nelson McCausland, standing


civil disobedience. What kind of message to you think that send it?


We are clear in the party that we believe people have a right to


protest, we believe the Parades Commission have failed miserably and


protest, we believe the Parades we welcome the fact that Secretary


protest, we believe the Parades of State has moved to do away with


those commissioners who sit on the Parades Commission. We want to see


the complete end of the Parades Commission and we're looking at the


Richard Haass talks to that about, because we cannot continue with


people 's rights being denied by the Parades Commission. We need to look


people 's rights being denied by the at the fundamentals of the Parades


Commission. The fact we have a commission which negotiates with


people then decides, we have a dual role for the Parades Commission, and


I have always said right back to when it was created that that was


folly and should not have been the case. We have seen the workings of


that over time, and we need to see the end of the commission. But do we


not also need to see an end to the unrest on the streets, an end to the


Twaddell Avenue protest? Is costing £50,000 a day to please. People have


rights but they also have responsibilities, and do you think


Nelson McCausland standing on that platform, a fellow member of your


party, is making your job of bringing investment into Northern


Ireland more difficult? I hope Nelson will have been there, and


exercising his right, but also his responsibility, as he always does in


those occasions. He will have been bringing camp to the area and


talking to people to make sure things do not get out of hand, and I


defend his right to be there. Do you want to see more civil disobedience


on the streets? No, I have said I want people to keep within the law


because we do not want people to be recipients of criminal records and


that is not where we want to be, but we must see that Northern Ireland


has moved forward a great deal since I was a young person, and we have


seen that Northern Ireland now receives more inward investment than


anywhere else in the UK, apart from Greater London, head of population.


I am proud of that and I will make sure we continue to work on that and


I am proud of that and I will make continue to say to investors this is


a good place to visit, and a good place to set up business. That will


be my message in the coming days. Arlene Foster, thank you for joining


us. As we heard, the Orange Order is now


threatening to intensify the dispute at Twaddell Avenue, taking it to the


level of civil disobedience. The dispute is already costing £50,000 a


day to police, according to the Chief Constable. Our political


correspondent, Gareth Gordon, visited the Twaddell protest camp


earlier in the week. Early evening, Woodvale Road, North Belfast, and a


earlier in the week. Early evening, few hundred people have braved the


rain to protest. They have done it more than 80 times since three


Orange lodges were stopped from returning their return -- from


completing their return journey past are going in July. Band members are


wearing masks to hide their identity since last week's decision that they


are breaking the law by playing music along the route, past police


lines at the interface. Although it remains peaceful, there are other


masks on view. Nearly three months on from the 12th of July, this is


the nightly reality in Twaddell Avenue. There is no sign of it


ending soon. Not far away, some people on the nationalist side the


Koran. -- look on. Myself and other locals have been volunteering to


walk the streets on the side to keep young people away from what has been


happening, so it has been a strange experience. But in Twaddell, some


believe the action should be stepped up. At every stage, it is other


people who have escalated it, not us. The time may come when it is up


to the people in this area and the people who support us to up the ante


and to escalate. Gareth Gordon reporting. Sam McBride


and Susan McKay are with me. What do you make of what was said yesterday


at Twaddell Avenue? This upscaling to the devil of civil 's obedience.


It shows the protest isn't going to end. I think the issue is that the


It shows the protest isn't going to language is ambiguous. Arlene Foster


is making clear, reading between the lines, that she is not keen to see


is making clear, reading between the any upscaling of the protest, but


defending the right of people to protest. I think the Orangemen who


stood up yesterday, the protest was peaceful and lawful but had some


element of disruption to wider committee life. The difficulty is


that in the past when Orange leaders said things like this, it has not


always been received in that way by people and perhaps they need to be


clear what civil disobedience they advocate and what they don't. We had


an instance earlier in the year where people talk about blocking


roads, but that is illegal and the police made that clear. For a period


that please let it go one during the flag protest, then these little to


stop it echoes as Arlene Foster said people now have criminal records, so


there are consequences. It is not yet clear if the Orange Order is in


control of what is happening in Belfast or even if the political


parties are. Susan, you visited the camp during the week. What did you


parties are. Susan, you visited the make of what you saw and what people


said you? It was pathetic, I felt, because it is like a throwback to


Drumcree all over again. It is the same old rhetoric, they are getting


everything and Unionism gets nothing and that is hatred of unionist


culture, and I don't really see what the DUP is playing out in re


engaging with that kind of negative pre-agreement politics, because I


think Arlene Foster is a very able minister, she speaks very well in


terms of investment, but she must know it is a very mixed message that


is being sent out where you have a government minister standing,


wanting to be seen on TV flanked by loyalists and by the Orange Order,


saying they are going to go as far as civil 's obedience, at the same


time as she knows investors are coming to Northern Ireland because


they know that like they believe we have a stable police here that like


a stable PC, the rhetoric that I heard up at that so-called peace


a stable PC, the rhetoric that I camp was very belligerent and full


of hatred and rage and self-pity. Was that wattage and eight why the


eye there and why the annoyed? No, because it all comes back to no


surrender and the fact the DUP has gone into power with Sinn Fein and a


return to the notion we can go back gone into power with Sinn Fein and a


to the past ready Orange Order can marks were wanted, and there is this


refusal to accept that nowadays compromise is necessary in all


situations and there has been acts of bad faith in relation to talking


about talks, which they have been saying since July, but they haven't


yet sat down and done so. We should note that if the parade had passed


yesterday at 9am, when most of us were in their beds, in a limited


form without music, the camp would not be there. Anyway, yes there are


serious problems, there is the potential for disorder, but there is


intransigent on the part of people like Gerry Kelly who are saying even


at a time well after the 12th, when like Gerry Kelly who are saying even


the parade has been stopped, they will still not lead it through in


any time. It is most disturbing to see young people in masks in that


footage, some of them are Halloween masks and people are making light of


that, but there are also young people seen with balaclava type


masks. That is very menacing, even if it is not intended as anything


other than a bit of a show. week gone by in 60 seconds. The


Executive's top two agreed on one thing, 1000 new call centre jobs in


Belfast. Agreement over the ultra-rare showpiece centre has not


been so easy. The refusal to honour a government commitment has been


difficult for me. Orangemen were knocked back again over Ardoyne.


There was a statement made from all those involved, and I was one, that


they would return them no matter what the bridge commission decision


was, they would return to dialogue. The SDLP the bike support for naming


a new replay Park after an IRA hunger striker. And if you present


at the Tory conference after is a prize cabinet reshuffle involving


at the Tory conference after is a Theresa Villiers. Please give a warm


welcome to the Secretary of State for Scotland.


A bit of a nightmare for trees of the leaders there. That factories of


years. In the Republic, Enda Kenny has been


dealt an embarrassing defeat over the future of the Seanad. The


Taoiseach had proposed abolishing the upper house, claiming it would


save 20 million euros a year. He was opposed by a small but vocal


campaign group, and on Friday, voters decided they wanted to keep


their Senators. Let's get more from journalist Diarmaid Fleming in


Dublin. Nobody really expected this outcome. What happened? This was a


shock. All the polls beforehand indicated a lead of up to 70% for


the government side. It seems that a large number of no voters,


especially voters from the east of the country and Dublin, decided


against backing the government on this. The government fought a really


inept campaign. Enda Kenny proposed this in 2009 without any discussion


with his own party, yet decided not to take part in a debate on this, so


it was a campaign where the leader had decided not to sit in the


driver's have and it was derailed. Will it damage Enda Kenny? It will.


No one wants to lead a proposal like this and then be rejected, but I


think there is a feeling that the Seanad is not that important here.


The big issue is the economy. People are under pressure from austerity


and next week there is a budget. Coming one after the other, a Seanad


defeat and then an unpopular budget, we will see a combination where the


effect on Enda Kenny, we will see what that will be. In one of the


Kiwis and is for getting rid of the Seanad was that it would save 20


million euros a year, the referendum cost 14 million. I don't think the


money was that they can issue. Enda Kenny thought this was a populist


issue, to have fewer politicians, but it didn't seem to matter to


people. 20 million euros is pretty small change in the scheme of


things. It is not something people feel in their pay packets but the


argument was that the opposition that those sums weren't adding up,


and that added to the ineptitude and the feeling this was not a serious


and that added to the ineptitude and campaign, that they hadn't done


their songs on something basic. There are people who think the


Seanad is important for Northern Ireland because significant figures


from the North, important voices down the years, have found a


platform in the Republic and have fed into political debate then


there. Empty can of people like Seamus Mallon, Gordon Wilson. Gordon


Wilson had a huge impact here. He was the father of Marie Wilson, who


was murdered in Enniskillen. His contribution was major but his


effort to reach out to the other side from the point of view, to the


unionist little establishment, was never going to grab a foothold


because unit would not want to see them what they see as a foreign


parliament, so it did have some impact in that way, but the Seanad


was seen by most people as a house for political insiders, those who


failed at rejection that like collections, and it was used by many


political parties as a platform for future political ambition. Thank


you, Derek Fleming. Sam McBride and Susan McKay with me still. Would you


gobsmacked by the result? I was surprised. I think it is a good sign


because sometimes you get the impression people in the Republic


are in despair, and they was a much higher turnout than anticipated. A


lot of people voted no, including myself, not because we necessarily


think the Seanad works well but because the campaign the government


ranks was so insultingly simplistic and arrogant, and the decision by


the Taoiseach not to even take part in it, I think people were saying


the Taoiseach not to even take part don't take us for granted, but this


is a chance to make the Seanad a meaningful body because it really


isn't. You mentioned some people who were included in the Seanad, a lot


of people think of WB Yeats, but in reality it has an performed for many


years. Sam, any thoughts on this? I was thrilled, it is not major


restriction, but I think it obviously used to be the case, it


was a lovely chamber and still exist for committee meetings, but it is a


constraint on the absolute power of legislator, and the Lords has been


criticised massively in recent years and it should be reformed, but as a


principle I think it is good. It worked on the impact for Gerry Adams


principle I think it is good. It of the verdict in his brother Liam


Adams's case during the week. It is of the verdict in his brother Liam


not good for him. It will damage him with some Republicans, but when you


have someone who denies that they have been leader of an organisation


that ordered people, I am not sure allegations about this will be


really damaging. I think in the longer term it will be, because


more affordable homes needed, but we have no time. Andrew, back to you.


Our next guest is no stranger to controversy, a former UKIP MEP he


recently lost his party's whip after a series of outbursts including


describing foreign countries receiving aid as 'Bongo Bongo Land'


and joking that a group of UKIP women who didn't clean behind their


fridges were 'sluts'. Now he sits in the European Parliament as an


independent but remains a UKIP party member. Here's a flavour of recent


events in the political life of Godfrey Bloom. How you can possibly


be giving £1 million a month... Bongo Bongo Land. I got 6000 e-mails


within 12 hours, only 47 were not agreeing with me so you are the one


that is out of touch. Everybody knows me, a bit like the Marmite


joke, they love me or they hate me but I have always told me like it


is. I made a joke and said that women who did not clean behind the


French were sluts and everybody laughed along, including the women.


I have had hundreds of e-mails, saying, God Almighty, can't you make


a joke any more? I am long in the tooth now to do political


correctness and I understand UKIP have moved on and they are doing


well, and I wish them well. This, with no black faces on it. You are


picking people out for the colour of with no black faces on it. You are


their skin? You disgust me! Perhaps the way they are doing things now is


not the way I do things. You disgrace me. We are joined now with


a suitable distance between us by the independent MEP for Yorkshire


and the Humber, Godfrey Bloom. You said this weekend that you have to


be a complete sociopath to be in politics, are you a sociopath? No, I


am just an ordinary bloke from the rugby club likes to tell it as it


is. I did not come into politics to rugby club likes to tell it as it


save my country from the clutches of the awful, evil... That is why I am


in politics, and that is why I joined UKIP, and I am still a


member, and I will still be voting UKIP. GUI except that your


ability... Do you accept that your behaviour spoiled the UKIP


conference? We were both born in behaviour spoiled the UKIP


same year, we are too old to worry about regrets. Let's look forward


and see... Never mind the year I was born, what is the answer to my


question? I am in this for my country and intent to do the best I


can, sitting at my time as an independent for my country, and that


can, sitting at my time as an will involve getting UKIP


re-elected. They are the only game in town, the only party that will


get as out. Shouldn't you have been more careful and not become a


liability? You hijacked the party conference. That is a matter of


perception. We have heard nothing in the last two years but it is a


one-man band, a Nigel Farage party, and I can make a joke at a fringe


meeting and collapse the whole thing. This doesn't say anything


about me or anything about UKIP, Andrew. It tells you about your


profession, the profession of journalism, it is all about


journalism - it is not about UKIP or me, it was the journalists' reaction


to a small joke at a meeting. And also Nigel Farage's reaction - is


UKIP a one-man party? I do myself, unless I had a commended.


Personality, the most unbelievable force of personality to collapse a


party conference. Nigel Farage has been a friend of mine for 20 years,


and may I remind you that in June and July UK was slipping in the


polls, and when I made my statement about overseas aid, we went back to


18%? I am not an electoral liability, I never was, I am a vote


getter. As you know, there is a difference between cause and


correlation, but let me show you what Nigel Farage had to say about


you on the BBC. Let's blunder clip of that. We are not here to win


friends amongst the liberal elite, and Godfrey's problem was that he


was making comments about women, and that is not part of the party


manifesto. Don't you need to reflect that you are too outrageous, too


politically incorrect even for UKIP? Well, you see, to a certain extent I


politically incorrect even for UKIP? have been gagged on other subjects.


I am a libertarian, I wanted to talk about flat tax. I thought David


Aronowitz wrote a very good piece in the times on drugs, and I have been


gagged to speak about any of these things because they are not part of


it, so I tend to speak about other things. Maybe they have outgrown


you, they want to be a more mainstream professional party


machine, and they have to get rid of the Victor Meldrew wing. You might


have a point, but I am speaking to you from Hull, and if you look at


our results in Rotherham and Barnsley, and very recently in


Scarborough and Whitby in the buy legends, 25%, so how you see things


in the bubble, it is not like how we see it appear in Yorkshire. You look


like the one who was sitting in a bubble! Is UKIP unravelling? Of


course it isn't, we are getting 24% of the vote in by-elections, of


course it is not. Boy, wouldn't the main parties and the establishment


love to see that! But I am sorry, it is not happening. Will you stand as


an independence against UKIP in the European elections? Almost certainly


not, although by no political support is ephemeral, if the


elections were next week, I could assure you I would win the seat. I


do not think I will go that route. Will you stand as a UKIP candidate


again? We do not know, probably not, but I shall certainly be trying to


help UKIP as best I can. You both share a flat, I understand, in


Brussels, neither of you clean behind the fridge. Other than the


fact that the place is probably quite murky, you have got a chance


to talk to each other and get back into his good graces, haven't you? I


am sure we will be having a beer before the month is out. So Godfrey


Bloom will soon be back in UKIP, we take it? For those of you who were


not watching there, he just shrugged! Thank you very much for


joining. A great pleasure. I will have to move my own share, you do


not have the sea Jeremy Paxman doing that! Nobody votes for UKIP because


they think they are a smooth, slick, professional party. If anything, the


absence of PR polish is the reason for their popularity, so these are


skirmishes are not a problem, and more than that, Godfrey Bloom does


make Nigel Farage look better. Even in that clip from Andrew Marr, he


looked more statesman-like in juxtaposition with someone like


Godfrey Bloom than he has done before. I mean, he did hijacked the


conference, it was a disaster, they got tonnes of publicity but not the


kind they wanted. But you have to say he does actor for the


journalists. I thought he was sexist long before anyone else, he used to


have an incredible page on his website entitled Godfrey Bloom:


Misogynist, and the proof that he was not was that he was once


photographed with a girls' rugby team, and we lived for those


characters in politics. He does make Nigel Farage look better, but is sin


was to say things you said before but to ruin the party conference. It


sounds like he is coming back. A beer in Brussels and he will be back


on the UKIP ticket. Sitting having a beer in that built the Chechen, it


sounds like it may be what the deal is that he comes back into UKIP but


does not stand as an MEP at the European Parliamentary elections. --


in that built the kitchen. It is right to say the electorate are


sophisticated and they know what this party is for, what characters


it has. You did not need what Godfrey Bloom said for people to


know he is sexist, and the electorate know what they go using


UKIP four. They are using it as the vehicle to beat over the head the


three established parties. They will probably do it in the European


elections and give them first place. The big question is what happens in


the general election, and the problem that Nigel Farage was making


the general election, and the an Andrew Marr this morning is that


he wants to copy the tactics of Paddy Ashdown, get elected and


councils, build up a Parliamentary base, and to do that you do need


discipline. MPs return to the Commons next week, and there is a


ministerial reshuffle on the cards, that is the rumour in Westminster.


David Cameron has spoken of the extraordinary talent pool of women


among his ministers, so could he bring more of them into the cabinet?


He was talking about it earlier this week. I think we are getting there


in Britain, but we have a long way to go. If you look at the top


businesses in Britain, there are not nearly enough women in the


boardroom. If you look at politics in Britain, there aren't nearly


enough women around the Cabinet table. So I think, in every walk of


life, whether it is the judiciary, whether it is politics, business,


there is a lot further to go. Before the last election, we only had 19


women Members of Parliament. We now have around 50, so we have made a


big change, but it is still 50 out of 300, not nearly enough. So we


need to do more. My wife likes to say, if you don't have women in top


places, you're not just missing out on 50% of the talent, you are


missing out on a lot more than 50% of the talent, and I think she


missing out on a lot more than 50% probably has a point. The prime is


that going for the women's vote. Is there going to be a reshuffle? I


think you are right to say there there going to be a reshuffle? I


will be a lot more women, they need to change the ratio of women to men


called Dave who went to maudlin college. So obviously they are not


fishing in the biggest talent pool, but there are numbers. Esther McVey


has been selling a very difficult brief in work and pensions, you


could see people being given bigger roles. Helen is pretty sure. We are


told it is not a Cabinet level reshuffle me it is under Secretary


level, so maybe you could put Esther McVey into the Cabinet. Margot


James, who you had here not that long ago, she is very impressive.


What is impressive is that some body like Andrea Leadsom, who is really


impressive, worked in the City, very smart, really big on important


social issues like early is intervention, she should still be in


there, but she fell out with George Osborne when she dared to criticise


him a few years ago over Ed Balls and the LIBOR so-called scandal. If


you are doing it on talent, Andrea Leadsom should have a senior


position in government. So expectation, if he does not do this


now, a tonne of bricks will fall on him. He has got no excuse not to


promote women, because the 2010 intake was disproportionately female


in terms of talent. The question of the Tories and the struggle with


women voters is a very deep and historic one. You have to remember


that for most of the post-war period they had an advantage electorally


amongst women voters. Many times there would not have been a


Conservative government without the women of this country. This began to


change in the mid-1990s, and the question is, why has that happened?


Was it policy change, or the personalities at the top are now


much more hostile to women, or less, personalities at the top are now


Brent doubled to female voters? It is such a deep historical trend that


I do not think one reshuffle will change it. -- or less competent


civil. The English party conference season is over, do you share the


consensus view that Ed Miliband came out best of the three party leaders?


I think I probably do, but his overall approval ratings are still


minus 20, whereas Cameron's minus ten. And the more the recovery seems


minus 20, whereas Cameron's minus to take place, and some of the


latest figures are quite amazing, they certainly surprised me, you


wonder whether Labour's tactic is right to put all their eggs into the


living standards basket. I was looking at car sales, which are


booming. If people start to feel better, and they don't yet, but if


they were, it is tougher to go on about living standards. George


Osborne's... You have Ed Miliband making a great thing about living


standards, but then they say under their breath, this is global forces,


which mean that inflation is outstripping wage increases. And


you're absolutely right, as the economy improves, presumably that


will be dealt with, but Miliband's argument will be that there are


people suffering, and even if the economy recovers, they will still


struggle. But if it is global forces, it is difficult to blame the


struggle. But if it is global government for that. Body being


noticed now, there is nothing worse for the leader of the opposition


than to be not noticed. -- but he is being noticed now. It seems that he


in many ways has set the political weather. Look at the number of


references to the Labour leader in Mr Cameron's speech. And in Mr


Obama's speech on a similar topic, living standards. Was the mentioning


Ed Miliband?! Oh, he was using the same language, he has not gone that


far. If I were Ed Miliband, I would be more worried now, because Labour


through the kitchen sink at their conference. They came out with the


biggest policy announcements they could, compulsory apprenticeships,


the energy freeze on prices, and it generated a poll boost which has


fizzled away within ten days. I do not know where they go from here.


What is significant with Ed Miliband is that in his three party


conference beaches, he has set the tone for responsible capitalism, the


one nation Britain, and the problem with those speeches is people say,


they are fine, they are academic, but what does it mean? What you have


now is an intellectual framework that translates into policies. The


polls to watch are not the ones after the conferences, but at the


end of the month when it has also pulled down. They will tell us where


we are going. We will have to go ourselves now. Thank you to our


guests. The Daily Politics will be back tomorrow at noon on BBC Two,


and I will be back on BBC One this time, same time, next week. If it is


Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.


Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Including Lord Prescott on press regulation, Godfrey Bloom MEP on his departure from UKIP and shadow business secretary Chuka Umunna on the privatisation of Royal Mail. Also on the programme, Margot James MP and City AM's Allister Heath go head to head on 'help to buy'.

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