17/04/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


17/04/2016

Presented by Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers. Featuring discussion and debate on the EU referendum with Tristram Hunt, Liam Fox and US State Department spokesman Jamie Rubin.


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David Cameron thinks we'll be stronger, safer

:00:38.:00:43.

Leave campaigners say the real risk would be a vote to remain.

:00:44.:00:48.

So what are the dangers if we decide to stay?

:00:49.:00:52.

On his final presidential visit to the UK, Barack Obama

:00:53.:00:56.

will back the idea of Britain remaining in the EU.

:00:57.:00:59.

But is the leader of the free world right to wade into our debate?

:01:00.:01:03.

And before the referendum, there's the small matter

:01:04.:01:06.

of national and local elections right across the UK.

:01:07.:01:11.

And on Sunday Politics here, the SDLP's Dolores Kelly

:01:12.:01:13.

tells us why her party deserves your support in May.

:01:14.:01:16.

Plus, they've been called the unofficial opposition -

:01:17.:01:18.

we hear from the three smaller Assembly parties.

:01:19.:01:21.

In London, with less than three weeks to go to polling day,

:01:22.:01:24.

we hear from mayoral hopefuls Sian Berry of the Greens

:01:25.:01:26.

And with me, as always, our panel of the best and brightest

:01:27.:01:34.

political brains in the business, Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott

:01:35.:01:36.

Now, the referendum isn't the only vote looming on the horizon.

:01:37.:01:47.

Before the EU vote on June 23rd, voters across the UK will get

:01:48.:01:51.

a chance to cast their ballot in a range of elections

:01:52.:01:53.

There are seven sets of elections happening in May,

:01:54.:01:57.

all of which will take place on the same day,

:01:58.:02:00.

Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will hold national elections.

:02:01.:02:04.

There are 60 seats up for grabs in the Welsh Assembly.

:02:05.:02:08.

The Scottish Parliament, in which the SNP has held

:02:09.:02:11.

a majority since 2011, will elect 129 members,

:02:12.:02:16.

and in Northern Ireland, there are 108 seats that will be

:02:17.:02:19.

decided for representatives to the assembly at Stormont.

:02:20.:02:23.

Across England there are local government elections.

:02:24.:02:26.

124 councils have seats up for election.

:02:27.:02:30.

35 metropolitan councils, 19 unitary authorities

:02:31.:02:32.

and 70 district councils, and four cities in England

:02:33.:02:35.

will elect mayors, London, Bristol, Liverpool and Salford.

:02:36.:02:59.

Londoners will also elect members to the London Assembly

:03:00.:03:01.

Finally, voters in 41 police force areas in England and Wales

:03:02.:03:04.

will elect a Police And Crime Commissioner.

:03:05.:03:06.

Joining me now from Glasgow is our election guru,

:03:07.:03:08.

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.

:03:09.:03:09.

Let's start with the local elections in England. How should we judge the

:03:10.:03:13.

performance of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party in these elections? We

:03:14.:03:18.

have to appreciate that the seats up for grabs on me the these elections

:03:19.:03:25.

were for the most part fought for three year is ago. We are looking at

:03:26.:03:31.

the time of George Osborne's so-called a shambles budget when

:03:32.:03:34.

support for the Conservatives fell away. These were the only set of

:03:35.:03:39.

elections during the last parliament where the Labour Party began to put

:03:40.:03:42.

in a performance where you might have thought they would have been

:03:43.:03:45.

capable of winning the next election. Jeremy Corbyn's

:03:46.:03:51.

misfortune, he is defending not a brilliant baseline, but a relatively

:03:52.:03:56.

good one. Labour six or seven points ahead, as judged by their share of

:03:57.:04:01.

the vote. The truth is that Jeremy Corbyn is not 67 points ahead. In

:04:02.:04:06.

contrast to what we might have expected a few weeks ago, he is no

:04:07.:04:12.

longer 67 points behind. Labour and the Conservatives seem to be quite

:04:13.:04:16.

close to each other. That means that in practice Mr Corbyn may well be

:04:17.:04:22.

facing losses. The figure of 150 has been bandied around. Will that be

:04:23.:04:26.

good? Better than it might have been a few weeks ago. Is it the sort of

:04:27.:04:32.

performance to persuade you that the Labour Party is on course to win the

:04:33.:04:38.

general election? Certainly not. Is the biggest threat that they would

:04:39.:04:43.

lose London, and would that be unlikely? I agree it would be

:04:44.:04:47.

unlikely. If they were to fail to win the London mayoral election,

:04:48.:04:52.

that would be a serious reverse for Labour. Back in 2012, although Boris

:04:53.:04:59.

Johnson on the London mayoral election, Labour was clearly ahead

:05:00.:05:04.

in the parallel election. Neither Sadiq Khan, the Labour candidate,

:05:05.:05:10.

Northside Goldsmith, the concerted of the -- the Conservative

:05:11.:05:16.

candidate, has the same kind of attractiveness to the public. Labour

:05:17.:05:18.

did relatively well in London 12 months ago. If David Cameron were

:05:19.:05:25.

not to win that election, Labour would have questions to ask itself.

:05:26.:05:34.

Could Labour even come third behind the Scottish Tories? The answer is

:05:35.:05:39.

that they could. There is another opinion poll lead this morning that

:05:40.:05:42.

put Labour on the Conservatives neck and neck with each other. Some

:05:43.:05:49.

opinion polls put Labour and the Conservatives together, but not by

:05:50.:05:53.

much. Labour neglect the heading for a very bad performance. It would be

:05:54.:05:58.

the worst result in any election since 1918. I do not think it will

:05:59.:06:03.

tell you much about Jeremy Corbyn and his popularity. We have to

:06:04.:06:06.

remember that what happens in Scotland is very distinct and

:06:07.:06:09.

separate from what happens in the rest of the UK. The election in

:06:10.:06:14.

Scotland is going to be, primarily, framed by people's views about

:06:15.:06:20.

independence. The truth is the overall majority of people that

:06:21.:06:25.

voted for independence are still determined to vote for the SNP. So

:06:26.:06:28.

long as that remains the case, Labour will struggle another the

:06:29.:06:33.

border. It has to do with Scottish politics and little to do with what

:06:34.:06:36.

is happening in the rest of the UK. Is there really a Ukip surge in

:06:37.:06:42.

Wales? The opinion polls suggest that Ukip are doing well in Wales.

:06:43.:06:47.

But that is roughly where the opinion polls are putting Ukip

:06:48.:06:52.

across the UK as a whole. In Wales, as in Scotland, and the London

:06:53.:06:56.

assembly elections, the elections are being held by proportional

:06:57.:07:04.

representation, not first past the post, so if Ukip can get the 15%

:07:05.:07:07.

that the opinion polls suggest that the might get, they will get

:07:08.:07:09.

significant representation in the Welsh assembly. Getting Ukip grade

:07:10.:07:13.

is one of the things in which the opinion polls tend to disagree with

:07:14.:07:18.

each other. Ukip will perhaps not do as well as that, they will get some

:07:19.:07:22.

seats, but perhaps not as well as the parties hoping. Northern

:07:23.:07:29.

Ireland, and the executive almost collapsed there last year. Will the

:07:30.:07:34.

turmoil at Stormont, is it likely expected to change people's voting

:07:35.:07:39.

patterns this time? We not expecting a vast in Northern Ireland. Not only

:07:40.:07:45.

is the assembly elected proportionally, but so is the

:07:46.:07:54.

elected -- the executive. The larger of the two Unionist parties and the

:07:55.:07:57.

Nationalist parties might not be quite as strong as last time. No one

:07:58.:08:01.

is expecting very much in way of a major change. Thank you for joining

:08:02.:08:06.

us. Nick Watt, let me come to you. These elections are widely being

:08:07.:08:11.

seen as Mr Corbyn's first serious test. What a Labour's real

:08:12.:08:16.

expectations? The expectation is there going to do badly in Scotland.

:08:17.:08:22.

That is in. They will do badly in Wales but the expecting that. They

:08:23.:08:26.

will not admit that they could do very badly in the English local

:08:27.:08:30.

elections, and that they could lose seats. If the Labour Party lost

:08:31.:08:34.

seats in the local elections, it would be the first time since 1985

:08:35.:08:38.

that an opposition party had suffered losses in local elections

:08:39.:08:43.

in a non-general election year. It would be woolly bad. What did is

:08:44.:08:49.

down two at the end of the day, I know we should not wish think about

:08:50.:08:53.

London, a great picture of Glasgow behind John Curtice, but it is down

:08:54.:08:58.

to London. Jeremy Corbyn needs one victory and he looks like he will

:08:59.:09:03.

get one, Sadiq Khan in London. That will probably enough. He can do

:09:04.:09:08.

badly everywhere else but as long as he holds onto London years save? I

:09:09.:09:14.

think because the others are just priced in. If he can be seen to

:09:15.:09:19.

notch up one victory, it is a bit like the old and Royston by-election

:09:20.:09:23.

at the end of last year. Everyone assumes that they will do badly.

:09:24.:09:29.

They did well, it stabilises the leadership. He would probably be

:09:30.:09:32.

safe even if you lost London? I think he would be. Those who would

:09:33.:09:37.

like to see the back of have the difficulty that essentially his

:09:38.:09:39.

supporters control the party membership. It is an interesting

:09:40.:09:44.

question, how this is going to be judged. I spoke to one of Jeremy

:09:45.:09:49.

Corbyn's critics within the parliamentary party this morning and

:09:50.:09:53.

was surprised how upbeat he sounded. He said, I think we might put on a

:09:54.:09:58.

couple of hundred seats. This is a terrible time for the Tory

:09:59.:10:03.

leadership. I came off the phone and thought, this is about expectation

:10:04.:10:08.

management. This is the critics of Jeremy Corbyn saying that we should

:10:09.:10:13.

put on a few hundred seats. When they do not, they will see it as a

:10:14.:10:17.

disaster. The setting him up to fail. The Tories are expected to do

:10:18.:10:22.

quite well in these elections, even in Wales. We have had the budget,

:10:23.:10:27.

the Panama Papers, the steel crisis, the split over the referendum. It

:10:28.:10:31.

has got to take its toll on the Tories? It has in the opinion polls,

:10:32.:10:38.

which are Sean at the minimum of the Tory lead, narrowing, and in some

:10:39.:10:43.

cases Labour pulling ahead. I suspect some Tories would not mind

:10:44.:10:48.

doing badly in the local elections in England if it relieves the

:10:49.:10:52.

pressure on Jeremy Corbyn, who they want in place over the next four

:10:53.:10:56.

years and contesting the 2020 general election. Even if Labour do

:10:57.:11:02.

badly in Scotland, Jeremy Corbyn owes a debt to Sadiq Khan, because

:11:03.:11:08.

his likely but not certain victory in London, judging by the opinion

:11:09.:11:12.

polls, will attract more attention than elections everywhere, not

:11:13.:11:16.

before it deserves -- not because it deserves to, but because the media

:11:17.:11:23.

has a slight skew towards London. It is a slightly sexier office. It will

:11:24.:11:26.

drown out any underperformance that Labour have in the rest of the

:11:27.:11:31.

country. Is it too cynical to say that some Tories will not be too

:11:32.:11:35.

upset if they do not win London because Mr Corbyn will then be

:11:36.:11:40.

secure? I do not think that is cynical. That is absolutely the

:11:41.:11:46.

case. Janan is right. There will be lots of post-analysis about how the

:11:47.:11:52.

billionaire's son, Zac Goldsmith, lost the election. It is interesting

:11:53.:11:55.

that the people who want to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour

:11:56.:11:59.

Party, the window they are talking about is not after the local

:12:00.:12:03.

elections, but after the referendum at the end of June. We might be

:12:04.:12:07.

focused on the Conservatives by then. I think the troubles of the

:12:08.:12:08.

Tory party will take the focus then. So the referendum

:12:09.:12:16.

campaign has begun. The official campaign groups have

:12:17.:12:17.

been designated and the arguments The Prime Minister says we'll be

:12:18.:12:19.

stronger, safer, and better off in. And a vote to leave,

:12:20.:12:24.

says to Mr Cameron, But it won't have escaped your

:12:25.:12:26.

attention that the EU is also facing challenges,

:12:27.:12:32.

a migration crisis, economic So, if we do decide to remain,

:12:33.:12:35.

what are the risks ahead of us? For some, the consequences of this

:12:36.:12:41.

EU referendum are crystal clear. For the rest of us,

:12:42.:12:52.

it is difficult to see the future after June the 23rd,

:12:53.:12:55.

hard to predict. Of course, the politicians claim

:12:56.:12:57.

to know our fortunes. This cannot be described as anything

:12:58.:13:02.

other than risk, uncertainty, We have clearly elevated Brexit

:13:03.:13:04.

as one of the serious downside risks I firmly believe that leaving the EU

:13:05.:13:15.

would leave our country less secure. This lot, Vote Leave,

:13:16.:13:21.

call it Project Fear. They say the other side is trying

:13:22.:13:24.

to scare people into thinking that Instead they say that

:13:25.:13:27.

the uncertainty is staying in. What will the EU look like in five,

:13:28.:13:32.

ten, 15 years? For me, it would be an outdated

:13:33.:13:39.

bloc, something that was created in the last century,

:13:40.:13:41.

something that can neither control It has been foretold that migration

:13:42.:13:45.

will be one of the dominant David Cameron insists his negotiated

:13:46.:13:52.

emergency brake on migrants' in work benefits as well as changes to child

:13:53.:14:00.

benefits will discourage EU migration, but some experts say it

:14:01.:14:02.

will have little impact. Figures from the Migration

:14:03.:14:08.

Observatory this week suggest that continuing economic instability

:14:09.:14:12.

in the Eurozone is encouraging an increasing number of southern

:14:13.:14:16.

European migrants to head to the UK Looking forward, it is very

:14:17.:14:19.

difficult to know It is possible that if the gap

:14:20.:14:23.

in economic performance between the UK and other

:14:24.:14:28.

countries, for example, Italy, Portugal and Spain,

:14:29.:14:30.

remains significant, there could be quite a pull factor

:14:31.:14:34.

for some time. It is also possible if there is more

:14:35.:14:37.

economic convergence that we could see the numbers

:14:38.:14:40.

start to fall. Much has also been made this week

:14:41.:14:42.

about the risk to both the British and the global economy if Britain

:14:43.:14:47.

voted to leave the EU, In the single market we trade freely

:14:48.:14:49.

right across Europe and we have a say in making

:14:50.:14:54.

the rules across the Continent. If we leave, we give

:14:55.:14:57.

all of that up with no idea The real economic risks are for

:14:58.:15:00.

staying in the European Union. We might find ourselves on the hook

:15:01.:15:06.

for bailouts for countries that are having difficulty staying

:15:07.:15:11.

in the euro in the future. We might find that our rebate comes

:15:12.:15:14.

under assault in the future, we might find that the amount

:15:15.:15:18.

of money overall that we have to give the European Union

:15:19.:15:21.

goes up and up and up. A few weeks ago, the Governor

:15:22.:15:25.

of the Bank of England said that leaving the EU was the biggest

:15:26.:15:28.

domestic risk to Membership of the European Union

:15:29.:15:30.

brings risks as well, and the principal risk,

:15:31.:15:35.

risks I should say, because there are more than one,

:15:36.:15:37.

are associated with the unfinished On the issue of whether our laws

:15:38.:15:40.

are made in Westminster or Brussels, for those wanting to leave the EU,

:15:41.:15:52.

a vote to remain would mean handing Fewer and fewer things over

:15:53.:15:55.

which we have the authority Fewer and fewer of our decisions can

:15:56.:15:59.

be upheld in British courts And I also know that fewer and fewer

:16:00.:16:02.

decisions will be made on European Union level

:16:03.:16:12.

which will be in British interests. And yet one former minister told me

:16:13.:16:16.

that pooling some decision-making The truth is that if you enter

:16:17.:16:18.

into any international agreement, then you may agree that those

:16:19.:16:25.

decisions should be Our Nato membership involves exactly

:16:26.:16:27.

the same kind of arrangement. We allow Nato to take a decision

:16:28.:16:31.

for our collective strength. Both sides seemed to agree a vote

:16:32.:16:34.

to remain is not a vote Those who want to stay

:16:35.:16:48.

in are confident, at least publicly, that the renegotiation will change

:16:49.:16:53.

for the better our relationship Those who want out say that

:16:54.:16:56.

relationship will only get worse. Quite how persuasive

:16:57.:17:00.

those two visions are, I predict we will find out

:17:01.:17:02.

on June the 24th. Joining me now is Labour MP

:17:03.:17:13.

Tristram Hunt, he was a member of the Shadow Cabinet

:17:14.:17:16.

under Ed Miliband. He is now campaigning for Britain

:17:17.:17:18.

to remain in the EU. Do you accept, let's look at some of

:17:19.:17:29.

the risks that could be associated with remaining, start with

:17:30.:17:32.

immigration. Do you accept that as long as we remain in the EU we have

:17:33.:17:36.

no real control of the numbers coming to our country? The European

:17:37.:17:41.

Union is not perfect and it is quite right to have this debate about how

:17:42.:17:46.

we reform Europe in the future. When it comes to our borders, we check

:17:47.:17:52.

who comes in. There will remain passport controls but we have to

:17:53.:17:56.

make sure that we explain to people that if we left Europe but still

:17:57.:17:59.

wanted to trade with the single market, we would also have to have

:18:00.:18:05.

the free movement of people just as Norway and Switzerland does. But in

:18:06.:18:08.

the long run I think there is an interesting question about the

:18:09.:18:11.

degree of free movement of people across the European Union. My point

:18:12.:18:16.

is that Britain should be a part of that conversation. We should be

:18:17.:18:20.

involved in that reform and change and if we are not at the table than

:18:21.:18:24.

our voice won't be heard. The numbers would seem to be beyond our

:18:25.:18:28.

control because that's the price of membership. Over the past five years

:18:29.:18:32.

the number of EU nationals living in the UK has risen by 700,000, it is

:18:33.:18:39.

now 3.3 million, it has doubled in ten years. As long as we remain in

:18:40.:18:56.

the EU it is surely a risk that at least another 700,000 could come in

:18:57.:19:00.

the next five years, it could be even more. Or it could be markedly

:19:01.:19:04.

less. If we go back to a time when the British economy was worse in the

:19:05.:19:06.

1980s, we saw large numbers of people going abroad to work in the

:19:07.:19:09.

European Union. We are taking a snapshot at the moment and the point

:19:10.:19:11.

about pooling risk across the single market is that when your economy is

:19:12.:19:14.

in difficulty you can take opportunities in other parts of the

:19:15.:19:16.

country. In the UK we should be supporting reforms to make sure

:19:17.:19:21.

there are not benefit attractions to coming to the UK so I think the

:19:22.:19:25.

Prime Minister's point about having to pay in before you take out, the

:19:26.:19:30.

point about fairness is really important and I think people in

:19:31.:19:33.

Britain think that if people are coming here to work, to pay their

:19:34.:19:37.

taxes and contribute to society, that is fine. You say it's a

:19:38.:19:43.

snapshot but let's look at this chart. Over the last five years, as

:19:44.:19:48.

you can see from that, from about 2012, under five years in fact,

:19:49.:19:54.

these are the absolute number, immigration from the EU has risen

:19:55.:20:02.

dramatically. My point is it is not a snapshot, it is a clear trend. The

:20:03.:20:06.

part of immigration over which we have no control is rising the

:20:07.:20:14.

fastest, isn't that a risk? But we go back to 1975 so historically this

:20:15.:20:18.

is a snapshot, and overtime this well change. We cannot have a system

:20:19.:20:24.

whereby you turn up in the UK and claim benefits from day one. You

:20:25.:20:28.

have to have a contributory principle. Also, those parts of the

:20:29.:20:35.

country, Boston in Lincolnshire, parts that have experienced high

:20:36.:20:38.

levels of immigration and we should be open and honest about this that

:20:39.:20:43.

we have seen statistics show big changes and may have impacted

:20:44.:20:47.

communities in big ways sometimes, they need the extra resource for

:20:48.:20:50.

schools and hospitals that this brings in. The case I'm putting to

:20:51.:20:57.

you this morning is that that is not necessarily a snapshot or that it

:20:58.:21:01.

will necessarily change. Let's look at the risks we would face in the

:21:02.:21:06.

years to come. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, decided that last

:21:07.:21:10.

year over a million Syrian immigrants could go to Germany.

:21:11.:21:14.

Eventually they could come here if they wish. Why should we be at the

:21:15.:21:21.

risk of unilateral decisions taken by a foreign leader? Obviously there

:21:22.:21:25.

are issues about residency rights in Germany or Italy before anyone could

:21:26.:21:31.

come to the UK. We retain border controls. If they become German

:21:32.:21:34.

citizens they will be allowed to come here. This is a balance of

:21:35.:21:40.

risks, on June the 23rd of voters have to weigh up these may bes. What

:21:41.:21:47.

we have heard clearly from the governor of the Bank of England, the

:21:48.:21:51.

Chancellor of the Exchequer, the head of the IMF, that there will be

:21:52.:21:54.

a seismic economic shock to the British economy. I understand that

:21:55.:22:00.

and there has been plenty of coverage of the risks of coming out,

:22:01.:22:05.

but I'm looking at the risks of staying in. Let me give you another

:22:06.:22:09.

one, I've given you the Angela Merkel example. Albania, Turkey and

:22:10.:22:17.

others all want to join the EU. More people that could have a right to

:22:18.:22:22.

come and live and work in the UK. That is a risk. We are already

:22:23.:22:27.

seeing the risk of Brexit. The pound is falling in value, economic

:22:28.:22:30.

decisions are not being taken at the moment. I'm not arguing that there

:22:31.:22:37.

are risks to coming out, I perfectly understand that. I'm looking at the

:22:38.:22:41.

risks if we stay in. Address this issue that the risk is of another 87

:22:42.:22:46.

more people with the right to come to Britain. My point is the risks

:22:47.:22:59.

are happening now,... What is your answer to the 87 million? The

:23:00.:23:03.

extension of Europe has to be managed carefully. The broader

:23:04.:23:07.

conversation about the total free movement of people across the

:23:08.:23:09.

European Union is something that needs to be addressed but firstly we

:23:10.:23:14.

won't have any say over that if we have left the European Union.

:23:15.:23:19.

Secondly, those countries which trade with Europe like Norway and

:23:20.:23:24.

Switzerland also have to accept the free movement of people. There's no

:23:25.:23:29.

free ticket on this. What I want is a strong Great Britain at the

:23:30.:23:33.

negotiating table making the case for our borders and security. When

:23:34.:23:37.

it comes to the free movement of people you raised the issue of

:23:38.:23:41.

Syrian refugees and concerns about security in the aftermath of

:23:42.:23:45.

Brussels and Paris, being part of Europe and having security

:23:46.:23:51.

connections with Europe makes us stronger. There's talk of another

:23:52.:23:56.

Greek financial bailout, fears of an Italian banking crisis looming this

:23:57.:24:00.

summer. If the eurozone plunges into another recession, the numbers

:24:01.:24:03.

coming here could easily hit new record highs. We have also seen we

:24:04.:24:12.

are not part of the Europe... They will come here looking for jobs. We

:24:13.:24:17.

are not on the hook for the Greek bailout. We were with the last one.

:24:18.:24:24.

Not to the same degree as other European members. We negotiated a

:24:25.:24:28.

strong exemption from that. This is about Britain having a strong voice

:24:29.:24:33.

at the negotiating table and you are offering up your own Project Fear. I

:24:34.:24:40.

am taking a methodical look at the risks. The eurozone is stagnating at

:24:41.:24:46.

the moment, that's why Spaniards, Italian and Portuguese are pouring

:24:47.:24:55.

into this country in huge numbers. If the eurozone was to tilt into

:24:56.:25:00.

another recession, that risks a lot more. It is a risk, and the British

:25:01.:25:06.

answer to that should be to deepen the single market, to make it more

:25:07.:25:09.

effective, to have growth across Europe. You do, if you have a strong

:25:10.:25:20.

British voice arguing for growth across Europe. You're talking about

:25:21.:25:25.

these potential threats in the future, we have a threat now.

:25:26.:25:30.

Businesses in my constituency, Stoke-on-Trent, are not making

:25:31.:25:34.

investment decisions. Indecision, two years of negotiation if we

:25:35.:25:40.

leave. Hold on... Two years of indecision if we vote to leave. Why

:25:41.:25:46.

are they eyeing the British stock exchange if there is indecision?

:25:47.:25:51.

There will always be levels of flow and investment but what we are

:25:52.:25:54.

seeing is fear and concern about the future. I think of workers in

:25:55.:25:59.

Staffordshire who go to work at the Toyota plant in Derby, they have

:26:00.:26:05.

jobs because of being part of the single market. I'm talking about the

:26:06.:26:15.

risks if we remain. Do you deny that if we stay in we face further

:26:16.:26:20.

integration? We have had a clear commitment from the Prime Minister

:26:21.:26:23.

that we won't be involved in ever closer union and that is a big

:26:24.:26:28.

philosophical moment, that Britain has a distinct and different stance

:26:29.:26:33.

to the rest of the European Union. I think people will benefit from the

:26:34.:26:38.

best of both worlds. If that is the case, you will be familiar with D5

:26:39.:26:43.

president report, the official road map for greater integration into the

:26:44.:26:48.

European Union. It calls for financial, fiscal and political

:26:49.:26:55.

union by 2025. That could affect us. We have a clear commitment we will

:26:56.:27:00.

not be involved in ever closer union. Have you read this report?

:27:01.:27:06.

Not all of it. It is not a long report. It says much of what I have

:27:07.:27:12.

just named, not all, but much of that could be achieved already

:27:13.:27:17.

through a deepening of the single market, which is important for all

:27:18.:27:23.

28 EU members, so we would not necessarily be excluded. I am in

:27:24.:27:28.

favour of a deep into single market so that those 200,000 businesses in

:27:29.:27:35.

the UK, exporting to Europe, have greater growth and opportunities.

:27:36.:27:40.

People become richer. So there could be deeper integration. I would like

:27:41.:27:45.

to see the digital and service economy grated more, we want more

:27:46.:27:49.

jobs and growth across Europe that Britain will benefit from. Why would

:27:50.:27:56.

we, when we face a global fear about downturn, decide to cut ourselves

:27:57.:28:00.

off from the richest market in the world. You say it is the richest, it

:28:01.:28:08.

is also stagnating. Because we cannot do our own trade deals with

:28:09.:28:13.

the part of the world that is growing, our trade is therefore

:28:14.:28:17.

hindered. It has taken seven years to reach a deal with Canada, it is

:28:18.:28:22.

not complete, the free trade deal with Australia has been blocked by

:28:23.:28:28.

Italy. These are all growth markets, unlike Europe, and we are unable to

:28:29.:28:32.

do free trade deals with them. That is a risk. Do you honestly think

:28:33.:28:38.

that if we left Europe and there were negotiations with India about a

:28:39.:28:44.

free trade deal, the UK, 60 million people, would be ahead of the queue

:28:45.:28:49.

of the European Union... Nothing is happening with India for nine years.

:28:50.:28:54.

We had historic links with India. What about Australia and Canada? We

:28:55.:29:00.

are not owed a living in the world. We have to make our businesses grow

:29:01.:29:04.

on their own terms and you do that by being part of the European Union.

:29:05.:29:09.

You have a much greater weight around the world by being part of

:29:10.:29:14.

this. My point is that we have the best of both worlds. We have the

:29:15.:29:18.

historic connections with the Commonwealth, with America. But why

:29:19.:29:24.

does the American trade representative say to us you would

:29:25.:29:29.

be crazy to leave Europe. Why do our allies around the world say you

:29:30.:29:35.

should be part of Europe? You say we won't be part of any further

:29:36.:29:39.

political integration, you say we won't join the euro, we won't be

:29:40.:29:43.

part of Schengen, and yet it is clear Europe will become at least

:29:44.:29:48.

within the eurozone more and more integrated. We will have less

:29:49.:29:50.

influence on that, we will essentially become a semi detached

:29:51.:29:58.

country club. What is the point? The point is a growing market for

:29:59.:30:02.

British businesses of 500 million people, and yes, this is the point

:30:03.:30:05.

about the best of both worlds, we don't want ever closer political

:30:06.:30:11.

union. We want access to the single market. The best of both worlds,

:30:12.:30:16.

safer, stronger and better off in Europe.

:30:17.:30:19.

Now, this week President Obama will make his valedictory

:30:20.:30:21.

He'll even have lunch with the Queen to celebrate her ninetieth birthday,

:30:22.:30:25.

presumably after she's watched the Daily Politics.

:30:26.:30:30.

But it's another aspect of Mr Obama's visit

:30:31.:30:34.

While he's here, the leader of the free world is expected

:30:35.:30:38.

to endorse the idea of the UK remaining in the

:30:39.:30:40.

Those campaigning to leave the EU are,

:30:41.:30:43.

surprise, surprise, a

:30:44.:30:44.

Here's what Boris Johnson had to say yesterday.

:30:45.:30:47.

I just find it absolutely bizarre that we are being lectured

:30:48.:30:50.

by the Americans about giving up our sovereignty,

:30:51.:30:51.

The United States, for their own reasons, their own history,

:30:52.:30:57.

traditions, based on the ideas of no taxation without representation,

:30:58.:31:03.

a fervent belief in the inviolability of American democracy,

:31:04.:31:05.

they would not dream of sharing sovereignty.

:31:06.:31:07.

Is he in danger of making America look like a hypocrite?

:31:08.:31:14.

Not in danger of it, I am afraid there is an intrinsic hypocrisy.

:31:15.:31:18.

I do not know what he's going to say, but if that is

:31:19.:31:24.

the American argument, of course it is nakedly hypocritical.

:31:25.:31:30.

To discuss this I'm joined by James Rubin.

:31:31.:31:33.

He was a spokesman in the US State Department during Bill

:31:34.:31:38.

And Liam Fox, former Defence Secretary, and a leading

:31:39.:31:42.

light in the campaign to leave the EU.

:31:43.:31:44.

Why should the leader of her closest allies, with whom we have a special

:31:45.:31:51.

relationship, on your regard as crucial to this country, not say

:31:52.:31:55.

what he thinks is in our national interest? He is entitled to say what

:31:56.:32:00.

he thinks is an America's national interest, but whether it is in the

:32:01.:32:04.

interests of Britain is a different question. Of course the president is

:32:05.:32:08.

entitled to say what he thinks, but we have to add a couple of caveats.

:32:09.:32:14.

That is his view. There are other views in America, Senator Rubio for

:32:15.:32:18.

example expressing a different view, he has expressed what he thinks

:32:19.:32:21.

about the special relationship if Britain were to leave the European

:32:22.:32:29.

Union. Tell me one previous American administration, Democratic or

:32:30.:32:31.

Republican, that thought we should not be in the EU, or did not care if

:32:32.:32:37.

we left? It is not a question of what the express, it is that they

:32:38.:32:41.

should respect what Britain does. They all want us to stay? There were

:32:42.:32:46.

strong elements of the last Republican administration, strong

:32:47.:32:50.

Republican leaders at present, who do not think... I do not remember

:32:51.:32:54.

the second President Bush saying that Britain should leave the EU.

:32:55.:33:00.

The debate is now, about our future, our relationship with the rest of

:33:01.:33:05.

the world. It is fair to say, though I might not use the same

:33:06.:33:09.

terminology, it is unthinkable that the United States would allow a

:33:10.:33:13.

court to overrule the Supreme Court or someone else to determine their

:33:14.:33:17.

external borders, in a way that the European Union does for the United

:33:18.:33:22.

Kingdom. Boris Johnson has made that point. President Obama, supporting

:33:23.:33:28.

things for Britain, things that no European -- that no American

:33:29.:33:31.

president would contemplate. Maybe we would be more inclined to listen

:33:32.:33:36.

to the president if he favoured an open border with Mexico, and if

:33:37.:33:40.

Congress was no longer the ultimate decider of federal law? Let me see a

:33:41.:33:46.

couple of things. I am glad that my colleague agrees that the president

:33:47.:33:49.

is attacked -- entitled to express his view of what is in the

:33:50.:33:53.

President's interest. -- America's interest. America and the EU

:33:54.:34:01.

together, they are the most powerful force for free markets and democracy

:34:02.:34:05.

around the world. If Britain leads the European Union, we will be

:34:06.:34:09.

weaker. We will might be able to pursue the great values that our

:34:10.:34:12.

countries have pushed around the world. Written working with the

:34:13.:34:17.

United States and the EU is able to do that. We have a joke in America,

:34:18.:34:23.

but it is a serious matter. Friends do not let friends drive drunk. This

:34:24.:34:26.

is not in our interest, or the interests of the world. What about

:34:27.:34:30.

our interest? You will make that judgment. Is the president simply

:34:31.:34:35.

going to say it is in the interests of America? I think he will avoid

:34:36.:34:41.

telling Britain what is in Britain's interest. About the point on

:34:42.:34:46.

hypocrisy, I know Boris Johnson likes to read biographies of the

:34:47.:34:50.

past. Maybe he is living in the past when he thinks that America is a

:34:51.:34:55.

very large country, a superpower, it has the world's largest military. It

:34:56.:35:00.

does not have to do only what you choose is compared to the British.

:35:01.:35:06.

Britain is a different country, not the superpower any more. Just

:35:07.:35:09.

because we will not do something does not mean that the British

:35:10.:35:13.

ignored. If the US president was coming here to support Leave, you

:35:14.:35:17.

would be shouting it from the rooftops? I do not think we will

:35:18.:35:22.

find out if that is true or not. There is an element of hypocrisy. We

:35:23.:35:27.

need to get the balance. We need to stick to the issues. We recognise

:35:28.:35:33.

the president is alleged to have his view, but it is not the only

:35:34.:35:37.

American view of what is in America's interests. We have to

:35:38.:35:41.

recognise it is a British debate ultimately. We will make our

:35:42.:35:45.

decision. As to this point about pushing our values, Britain had the

:35:46.:35:49.

same values before we joined the European Union in 1973. The fact we

:35:50.:35:54.

will be changing our philosophical approach because we are part of the

:35:55.:35:59.

group in union is not true. I mean that the EU is a very powerful

:36:00.:36:03.

instrument in our world. The United States has great military power, but

:36:04.:36:07.

there are other powers we need to achieve order and stability, and

:36:08.:36:12.

promote free markets. We need the ability to promote sanctions and

:36:13.:36:17.

provide aid. We need the ability to promote democracy. The EU is good at

:36:18.:36:22.

that working with the United States. We are better able to do that when

:36:23.:36:27.

our closest ally is within the EU. Let him come back on that. We think

:36:28.:36:32.

that the European Union is failing and that the structural failures of

:36:33.:36:36.

the European Union are not good for the West. We are seeing the

:36:37.:36:40.

re-emergence of nationalist tensions across Europe. We are seeing fence

:36:41.:36:44.

building. That is not the fault of the EU. It is a failure of the EU.

:36:45.:36:50.

We are seeing a whole generation of young Europeans unemployed as a

:36:51.:36:54.

result of the single currency. It is creating tensions. You did not have

:36:55.:36:58.

a problem with foreigners weighing in during the Scottish referendum.

:36:59.:37:03.

You told the Scandinavian countries, if your analysis is that Scottish

:37:04.:37:09.

independence is a threat to your security, why are you not standing

:37:10.:37:12.

up and saying it? President Obama probably thinks it is a threat to

:37:13.:37:16.

allow security, so why should they not see that? I thought it was a

:37:17.:37:22.

risk to the security of Britain in the Scottish referendum if we left

:37:23.:37:27.

Natal. If Britain pulls out of the EU, the Scottish will pull out of

:37:28.:37:31.

Britain and there will be a hold-mac in Natal. I do not believe that to

:37:32.:37:35.

be true. When were you last in Scotland? I was recently there and I

:37:36.:37:41.

sat with the Scottish party leader. They have been clear that if the EU

:37:42.:37:47.

does not include Britain, the Scottish want to lead. Interest is

:37:48.:37:51.

one thing, having an opinion about what the SNP will do is different.

:37:52.:37:56.

THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE What about Senator Cruise, he is

:37:57.:38:00.

fighting for the Republican nomination with Donald Trump. He

:38:01.:38:04.

said that Mr Obama's comments will make it more likely that England, he

:38:05.:38:09.

means Britain, that England will pull out of the EU? I do not think

:38:10.:38:13.

it will have a massive impact either way in terms of the British result.

:38:14.:38:18.

I think it is important for us to recognise that this is a decision

:38:19.:38:22.

for the United Kingdom. I do not agree with this assessment that the

:38:23.:38:27.

European Union in its current model is good for the United States. It is

:38:28.:38:31.

unstable. Now you're giving an opinion for us. You just asked me

:38:32.:38:37.

not to do that. The United States and Britain working together have

:38:38.:38:41.

made the world a better place for democracy, for a free market. We are

:38:42.:38:45.

only able to do that successfully when our closest ally is part of the

:38:46.:38:51.

EU. American foreign policy will be weaker, Western foreign policy will

:38:52.:38:55.

be weaker if the British leave the EU. We look forward to the

:38:56.:38:59.

President's visit, whatever he has to say. Thank you.

:39:00.:39:01.

It's just gone 11:35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:02.:39:09.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:39:10.:39:12.

It's been a dramatic year for the SDLP with a leader toppled

:39:13.:39:17.

and the young pretender taking the prize.

:39:18.:39:19.

But can Colum Eastwood really turn the party's fortunes around?

:39:20.:39:22.

I'll be asking his colleague Dolores Kelly to set out the party's

:39:23.:39:25.

Plus, representatives of the Assembly's smaller parties -

:39:26.:39:29.

the TUV, Greens and UKIP - will be making the case

:39:30.:39:32.

And with me throughout with their thoughts,

:39:33.:39:35.

The party goes into this election with a new,

:39:36.:39:48.

young leader after Colum Eastwood successfully challenged

:39:49.:39:49.

But the world of politics can be harsh and leaders

:39:50.:39:54.

So can the party reverse its recent declining vote?

:39:55.:39:59.

We invited Colum Eastwood on to today's programme

:40:00.:40:02.

but we were told he was unavailable, so with me instead is the party's

:40:03.:40:05.

A vote for the SDLP on May 5th is a vote for what, precisely?

:40:06.:40:17.

I think our party leader set it out clearly, it is a vote for fairness,

:40:18.:40:25.

a vote to make Northern Ireland work, a vote to support families and

:40:26.:40:34.

children, to attempt to deal with the scourge of poverty that is so

:40:35.:40:40.

prevalent in our society, to better protect our older people and send a

:40:41.:40:44.

strong message to those who attacked them in their own homes that they

:40:45.:40:46.

could face custodial sentences. You've decided that,

:40:47.:40:49.

even though there is now a place called opposition,

:40:50.:40:51.

that's not where you want to be - even though you were pretty keen

:40:52.:40:54.

on the idea yourself in the past. I think all politicians fight

:40:55.:41:00.

elections to win. We don't fight to go to into opposition. I think in

:41:01.:41:05.

try to move Northern Ireland forward and try to make it work, I

:41:06.:41:12.

recognised in my -- and the party recognises that opposition can be a

:41:13.:41:16.

good thing when ever parties aren't delivering, clearly, we have seen

:41:17.:41:21.

over the last nine years, the two main parties haven't delivered for

:41:22.:41:26.

the people of Northern Ireland. It is not your intention to go into

:41:27.:41:32.

opposition? I think Colum Eastwood set it out clearly, first and

:41:33.:41:35.

foremost, we are fighting to win. We will work with other parties in

:41:36.:41:40.

looking to have our priorities set within the programme for government.

:41:41.:41:44.

We will judge the outcome of that in terms of the programme for

:41:45.:41:54.

government, and we are committed to true partnership rather than the

:41:55.:41:56.

division of spoils that we've seen with the two big parties over the

:41:57.:42:06.

last years. What does fighting to win mean, precisely? Because you are

:42:07.:42:13.

only running 24 candidates? We're giving choice, we are setting out

:42:14.:42:18.

our manifesto, knocking on doors, taking part in debates and fighting

:42:19.:42:22.

to win is actually about try to get a strong mandate, to try and get all

:42:23.:42:24.

of those candidates elected. It doesn't look like a party on the

:42:25.:42:43.

march to a bigger presence in government. It looks like you are on

:42:44.:42:51.

the retreat. I don't set that. -- accept that. I think what we are

:42:52.:42:56.

looking to do is to win and do better in terms of the outcome for

:42:57.:43:00.

the election. I recognise and the party recognises over the last few

:43:01.:43:04.

years, it hasn't been good for the SDLP. It hasn't been good for middle

:43:05.:43:09.

ground. More and more people have decided to stay at home, it isn't

:43:10.:43:15.

something that has only been affliction on the SDLP, all parties

:43:16.:43:19.

have found more people are staying at home and apathy is one of the

:43:20.:43:22.

greatest risks to all of our campaigns. Sinn Fein's vote has gone

:43:23.:43:32.

up dramatically since Iraq. -- has gone up dramatically in the last few

:43:33.:43:40.

years. It has gone up by 35 thousand. Their vote has plateaued

:43:41.:43:48.

over the last few years. I think they have lost votes in some areas

:43:49.:43:52.

and didn't do as well in southern elections as they thought they

:43:53.:43:56.

would. They also didn't win the presidential campaign in the South

:43:57.:44:00.

so Sinn Fein has plateaued. I don't think it is just about the nub of

:44:01.:44:03.

candidates you run, I think it is also about having a strong team at

:44:04.:44:09.

the Executive. How many seats is the SDLP looking for? You have 14 at the

:44:10.:44:17.

moment, what is your targets? I would fall into the trap of

:44:18.:44:23.

predicting outcomes and numbers. We have a strong message, we are asking

:44:24.:44:27.

people to come out in supporters again, stop lending their vote...

:44:28.:44:31.

Fewer than 14, that wouldn't be success. We are putting a strong

:44:32.:44:38.

team forward. If you go back with fewer than 14, that would not be

:44:39.:44:43.

regarded a success, could it? I do not believe we will have any sense

:44:44.:44:47.

of failure. It is my sense that the doors that people want the SDLP to

:44:48.:44:50.

have success. I have every confidence in Colum

:44:51.:45:08.

Eastwood. He has a strong performer, both in media, here's a sharp

:45:09.:45:11.

political thinker and I think there is a lot of ambition. People are

:45:12.:45:14.

recognising that. I think the party will get a bounce because of that.

:45:15.:45:20.

You are investing a lot in him as the bright young thing he will move

:45:21.:45:26.

the party forward and attract a whole new raft of voters. This is

:45:27.:45:31.

meant to be a leaders debate, a leader interview and Colum Eastwood

:45:32.:45:36.

is not available nor is his new deputy leader. It is lovely to have

:45:37.:45:42.

you here but you are the former deputy. What is going on? It is

:45:43.:45:47.

something I have been asked to do and I stepped up to do this. There

:45:48.:45:51.

will be other opportunities. Obviously he has spent a lot of time

:45:52.:45:58.

in constituencies. He needs to look over his own backyard. Is that part

:45:59.:46:03.

of the story? Is he worried about Sinn Fein? Absolutely not, he has

:46:04.:46:10.

been a several constituencies, working very hard, and if anyone

:46:11.:46:17.

looks at how he performed against his main rivals, they looked old and

:46:18.:46:21.

tired. At least we have a manifesto to discuss today, unlike some other

:46:22.:46:26.

parties. West Tyrone is a bit of a problem for you, three defections

:46:27.:46:30.

from the party, two of them standing against you in May the fair. Seven

:46:31.:46:35.

party officers also left. Is that a bit of a disaster? It is

:46:36.:46:41.

regrettable, but I am convinced we have a very strong and able

:46:42.:46:47.

candidate in Daniel McCrossan. It is regrettable that some people who

:46:48.:46:51.

chose not to put themselves forward for selection have now taken this

:46:52.:46:56.

view and many of them, I believe, are good people, but that is what

:46:57.:46:59.

happens in political parties around selection times. What is the party's

:47:00.:47:06.

edition on criminalising a woman who has taken pills to induce an

:47:07.:47:12.

abortion? It is clear there are two tests in terms of public

:47:13.:47:16.

prosecution, one is whether or not a crime was committed, and that was

:47:17.:47:20.

the case. Whether it was in public interest to prosecute. I do not

:47:21.:47:23.

believe that it up in the case. You do not think the women in the case

:47:24.:47:27.

in the headlines recently should have been prosecuted? That would be

:47:28.:47:35.

a case of the judiciary. You are pro-life and your party is pro-life,

:47:36.:47:39.

but it you uncomfortable at the fact that now a young woman received a

:47:40.:47:44.

suspended sentence still has a criminal record. That mixing

:47:45.:47:47.

uncomfortable? I am clearly pro-life. There is a sensitive

:47:48.:47:56.

conversation to be had about all the risks and concerns that people have

:47:57.:47:59.

and I think that is something that I would want the working group to the

:48:00.:48:04.

looking at in around pregnancies. Might some people who are pro-life

:48:05.:48:08.

you would want to support the SDLP be concerned about what you have

:48:09.:48:11.

just said because they may think if you say you are uncomfortable at

:48:12.:48:16.

someone being criminalised in the circumstances, it could potentially

:48:17.:48:18.

open the floodgates to this happening again and again in

:48:19.:48:22.

Northern Ireland? That is a risk, and there are individual

:48:23.:48:25.

circumstances and that is something the public prosecution services has

:48:26.:48:31.

to make a judgment around. Promoting the integrated education of Catholic

:48:32.:48:34.

and Protestant children, does that mean you're prepared to take typical

:48:35.:48:38.

decisions that may affect the Catholic maintained sector?

:48:39.:48:45.

Education is something we are finding, people are talking to us

:48:46.:48:48.

about on the doors. They haven't been happy about performance over

:48:49.:48:55.

the last nine years over education. I hold faith based education very

:48:56.:49:03.

dear. We all recognise if we are to build a shed and reconciled future,

:49:04.:49:07.

and if we are able to afford an excellent education service for all

:49:08.:49:10.

our children, we need to start looking at better integration of our

:49:11.:49:15.

young people and children in our schools and that is something the

:49:16.:49:21.

Catholic bishops and other church leaders recently met and discussed.

:49:22.:49:25.

If they are not satisfied with the current structure and model, that is

:49:26.:49:30.

something I think we should all start to put our heads together and

:49:31.:49:33.

come up with one. If the bishops weren't happy with the policy line

:49:34.:49:39.

you are pursuing, woody stand up to them? I think what we would do is

:49:40.:49:44.

put the children first and not vested interests. We would look at

:49:45.:49:47.

the best educational outcomes for all our children and young people

:49:48.:49:51.

and not the vested interests. Interesting to hear your thoughts

:49:52.:49:53.

today. Thank you. Let's find out what my guests make

:49:54.:49:56.

of what we just heard. What do you make of the SDLP's

:49:57.:50:09.

ambition and its new leader? Think the first thing is this is a leaders

:50:10.:50:15.

debate and Colin is not here and that raises certain questions. --

:50:16.:50:25.

Colum Eastwood. He is the leader of the party across northern Ireland

:50:26.:50:28.

and I think you should be here. People need to hear him, seeing what

:50:29.:50:36.

he has to say, he has made it in his shadow, what he wants, so I think it

:50:37.:50:40.

is important that he is able to stand and articulate what the new

:50:41.:50:46.

party looks like. For him, I think demonstrating that he can lead a

:50:47.:50:49.

revival is important. I don't think it will be the catastrophe that

:50:50.:50:56.

people had suggested he would lose a number of feet, I don't think that

:50:57.:50:59.

will happen but I think he has to be able to show that he has a vision

:51:00.:51:09.

for the party. Do you think the target is likely to be holding those

:51:10.:51:17.

14 seats, as Deirdre suggested? Absolutely. That should be fairly

:51:18.:51:23.

comfortable for him. It has been noticeable that in some of the few

:51:24.:51:26.

clashes of the campaign, that it has been column Easter Road and Martin

:51:27.:51:31.

McGuinness going personally after each other. -- Colum Eastwood. What

:51:32.:51:44.

about the debate about governmental opposition? Colum Eastwood so there

:51:45.:51:48.

is no place called, he now has conceded there is. I think it is

:51:49.:51:55.

difficult to go out and asked people for their vote saying you're going

:51:56.:51:57.

into opposition but I think they have to leap that option open. They

:51:58.:52:00.

have to say if we are not satisfied with proposed programme for

:52:01.:52:05.

government, we will go into opposition. It is a slightly more

:52:06.:52:10.

difficult one. I think it is the lack of delivery, and they should

:52:11.:52:14.

focus on it. The problem is we not clear where they sit on the

:52:15.:52:21.

political arena, and a leftist, Central, affiliated with the British

:52:22.:52:25.

Labour Party, Irish Labour Party? I think that messaging is still not

:52:26.:52:30.

quite clear and we're not sure what differentiates them from Sinn Fein,

:52:31.:52:33.

what will they deliver that other people cannot? I was struck by what

:52:34.:52:40.

Dolores said about the question of opposition. After the televised

:52:41.:52:43.

debate on Wednesday night, I got the sense from Colum Eastwood that he

:52:44.:52:49.

was lining up to go into opposition. After the debate on Thursday night I

:52:50.:52:54.

got the opposite sense and Dolores, who has been consistent and

:52:55.:53:00.

articulate, there was no hint that all in anything she said that the

:53:01.:53:04.

party is likely to take that option. What we are likely to see is no

:53:05.:53:13.

opposition. Interesting discussion and thoughts on the position of the

:53:14.:53:18.

SDLP and what Dolores had to say. We will talk to you later in the

:53:19.:53:19.

programme. Thank you for now. With the campaign now in full

:53:20.:53:21.

flight, The View brought senior figures from the five main parties

:53:22.:53:23.

together on Thursday night. The venue was Moyola Precision

:53:24.:53:26.

Engineering in Castledawson. We want to see unrestrained ambition

:53:27.:53:36.

for jobs here and actually getting the place working. We want to see

:53:37.:53:44.

joined up government, ... We're going in to seek votes. I knew going

:53:45.:53:52.

into government or not? We want to go into government, of course. So

:53:53.:53:57.

you will understand that the public are slightly sceptical when in the

:53:58.:54:00.

run-up to an election your party says you are going to be transparent

:54:01.:54:04.

and then after that nothing happens. You had two years. As you know the

:54:05.:54:12.

decision doesn't rest with the Executive. It does, because we

:54:13.:54:21.

voluntarily published hours. -- we published our. You know very well it

:54:22.:54:26.

is a matter for the government in London. There are difficult

:54:27.:54:33.

decisions as far as health is concerned. By the Ulster Unionists

:54:34.:54:41.

up for that? I think the record of Sinn Fein being in charge of

:54:42.:54:44.

education over the years has been nothing short of a disaster and it

:54:45.:54:49.

has been ideological driven, primarily on the issue of selection,

:54:50.:54:54.

and I don't think... I didn't interrupt you, Michelle. Do you

:54:55.:55:02.

agree? There are issues. Let a month, we need to move on. -- let

:55:03.:55:05.

him answer. We had two major television

:55:06.:55:06.

debates this week. Are the parties getting

:55:07.:55:13.

their message out? The EU referendum issue over the

:55:14.:55:22.

last couple of months, then the centenary of the Easter rising, said

:55:23.:55:27.

it was only last week we saw the debate begin. I think people are

:55:28.:55:32.

wary about these things so it is not a bad thing. I thought the DUP and

:55:33.:55:42.

Sinn Fein were coming across more as governing partners. Not so much

:55:43.:55:45.

acrimony as there had been in past years. What is also fascinating is

:55:46.:55:53.

that several people have mentioned to me that we are now at least so

:55:54.:55:58.

far in this campaign discussing different issues from the issues we

:55:59.:56:00.

have discussed in previous campaigns. We're not talking about

:56:01.:56:05.

welfare reform, flags parades, we're talking about education and jobs and

:56:06.:56:13.

abortion. The landscape for discussion seems to have altered a

:56:14.:56:19.

bit. And I think most people have welcomed the fact we have moved to

:56:20.:56:22.

the so-called bread-and-butter facts. I noted a poll yesterday said

:56:23.:56:28.

education is now the one issue on the doorsteps. People want to know

:56:29.:56:31.

what the education system is going to look like, they want to know how

:56:32.:56:35.

we are going to grow our economy and they are concerned we seem to be

:56:36.:56:39.

cutting back on education, reducing skills base and at the same time

:56:40.:56:43.

saying we're going to the economy with a reduced rate of corporation

:56:44.:56:46.

tax. Well, we saw the five main parties

:56:47.:56:48.

in action on Thursday night's With me in the studio

:56:49.:56:51.

are Jim Allister of the TUV, Steven Agnew of the Greens

:56:52.:56:56.

and Noel Jordan of UKIP. You've been quoted this week

:56:57.:57:01.

as saying that your ambition is to secure the election of several

:57:02.:57:03.

MLAs and winning no seats would be failure written

:57:04.:57:06.

in capital letters. Success, you said, has

:57:07.:57:09.

to be more than one MLA. How likely are you to get that

:57:10.:57:20.

success realistically? That is entirely up to the people. If the

:57:21.:57:23.

people of Northern Ireland are perfectly happy with the perpetual

:57:24.:57:30.

failure with the abysmal squander of Stormont, then they will vote for

:57:31.:57:33.

the same parties again who have brought them that. And they will not

:57:34.:57:39.

be disappointed. But if they want change that they will notice, then

:57:40.:57:46.

they will vote for the authentic effective voice of opposition in

:57:47.:57:49.

Stormont which is the TUV which has shone the light into the dark

:57:50.:57:56.

corners of Stormont, exposed the squander, in a constant thorn in the

:57:57.:57:59.

flesh of miserable failing this government to which we have been

:58:00.:58:03.

subjected. Is entirely a matter for the people. They had been provided

:58:04.:58:07.

with the opportunity, but if they are happy with squander and failure

:58:08.:58:11.

and more deadlock and five years of crisis, then they will not make any

:58:12.:58:16.

change. They will vote for parties that give them that, if they want

:58:17.:58:18.

change, they will vote TUV. Use see things differently. -- you

:58:19.:58:38.

see things differently. You do not think Stormont is a busted flush at

:58:39.:58:43.

this stage. I think people are rightly frustrated by the failure

:58:44.:58:47.

and wasted opportunities by the five executive parties. The Green party

:58:48.:58:54.

's tackling to pledge -- pledging to tackle that. If we look at my own

:58:55.:59:03.

track record in the Assembly, despite being the only MLA, I could

:59:04.:59:07.

produce a piece of legislation around child services. That is what

:59:08.:59:15.

we were able to do, with one MLA, we are now giving people to elect --

:59:16.:59:20.

giving people the choice to elect 18th MLAs. We have a third in

:59:21.:59:28.

membership, we are confident. Haass a surge.

:59:29.:59:39.

I'll not be happy with just one seat. It is no secret that our

:59:40.:59:49.

strength lies in certain areas that I would be disappointed if we had

:59:50.:59:53.

any less than three, but I believe we can achieve even more than that.

:59:54.:00:01.

If you have fewer than three seat, you will admit that his failure? I

:00:02.:00:07.

will be disappointed, more MLAs will be success, any less than three will

:00:08.:00:18.

be disappointing. A change -- I change legislation in the last

:00:19.:00:25.

Assembly. We expose the Executive on a number of environmental protection

:00:26.:00:28.

issues. That is what I measure success on. That is what we did with

:00:29.:00:32.

one, we could do so much more with more MLAs.

:00:33.:00:46.

With DUP and TUV both eurosceptic partes, is UKIP looking for votes

:00:47.:00:49.

You have always be Eurosceptic. I understand where Jimmy is coming

:00:50.:01:01.

from. We have stood solo. We believe we have stood on our own, we have

:01:02.:01:05.

taken criticism from all directions and we have stood for -- firm in our

:01:06.:01:10.

position. We believe we can do far better. On some other issues, on a

:01:11.:01:20.

whole raft of other issues, your policies are not genetically

:01:21.:01:24.

different from those of the DUP in some aspects, the TUV, and some

:01:25.:01:30.

aspects also be Ulster Unionist party. It will be difficult for you

:01:31.:01:34.

to persuade voters that you should get a higher preference than some of

:01:35.:01:37.

the other long-standing parties. That is quite a hill to climb. It

:01:38.:01:42.

is. At the end of the day, the other parties have had their chance, they

:01:43.:01:45.

have made promises and they haven't delivered. We listen to what the

:01:46.:01:50.

people have to say and I think that is where we have the advantage

:01:51.:01:55.

because people are showing an interest in politics now, people who

:01:56.:01:58.

would normally not vote are telling us on the doorsteps that they are

:01:59.:02:02.

looking for an alternative and we believe that we are that

:02:03.:02:07.

alternative. I want to talk about some policy issues. You will want to

:02:08.:02:11.

create jobs, improve the health service and invest in education. How

:02:12.:02:18.

are you going to achieve that within the current financial constraints

:02:19.:02:23.

that Northern Ireland operates? The creation of jobs? Yes, that all

:02:24.:02:30.

requires money. Where will it come from? You start by cutting out the

:02:31.:02:37.

squander. We squandered 130 million on pretty useless North-South

:02:38.:02:43.

bodies, 5 million a year on spin doctors to tell us that DUP, Sinn

:02:44.:02:48.

Fein misgovernment is good for us, we squandered 15 million on wining

:02:49.:02:54.

and dining so there is lots of squander to be cut out of the

:02:55.:02:58.

system. Then a proper approach to the expenditure of that money. Take

:02:59.:03:04.

the single issue, biggest issue, of the economy. This executive has only

:03:05.:03:07.

one thought and idea about fixing the economy and it is one which is

:03:08.:03:14.

fast becoming irrelevant. It is reducing corporation tax, which

:03:15.:03:19.

itself requires a massive reduction in the grant for health, education

:03:20.:03:25.

and other things. With UK level of operation tax reducing to 70%, it is

:03:26.:03:35.

fast diminishing. We had a demonstration in my constituency of

:03:36.:03:38.

its ineffectiveness. About the time corporation tax will be reduced, to

:03:39.:03:47.

large companies will depart our shores. It wasn't enough to leave

:03:48.:03:50.

your them to stay so I very much questioned the wisdom of reducing

:03:51.:03:56.

our block grant by ?300 million or whatever the precise figure is in

:03:57.:04:03.

order to afford taxation to large corporations. Cut in corporation tax

:04:04.:04:10.

is actually a huge stake. We have heard the complaints about the cuts,

:04:11.:04:13.

we can't do this because of the cuts. The five executive parties are

:04:14.:04:20.

voluntarily asking for more cuts, we can't afford it. The state of our

:04:21.:04:23.

health service, my own grandparents had been in and out of hospital,

:04:24.:04:29.

unfortunately, my grandfather died. I've seen them getting discharged

:04:30.:04:32.

early before they were better, I seen the problems in our health

:04:33.:04:35.

service and there is five parties who have a cosy consensus that we

:04:36.:04:38.

should take 300 million now out of our system. Is there ever a good

:04:39.:04:48.

time? What's happening in the states, perhaps it isn't such a good

:04:49.:04:55.

idea at the moment. These parties are proposing 2018, I oppose that.

:04:56.:05:00.

What we have heard continually from these parties is 100% cut budgets.

:05:01.:05:07.

They have not proposed any revenue. You would be all for raising

:05:08.:05:12.

revenue. I would be in favour of those who can afford to pay more,

:05:13.:05:16.

paying more. I speak to people and they say they are willing to

:05:17.:05:19.

contribute to the health service. For example, in my children's Bill,

:05:20.:05:25.

one of the issues was problems around special education 's needs.

:05:26.:05:30.

Schools don't have the resources to provide for special education needs.

:05:31.:05:38.

My party would address that. We are already taking 500 million out of

:05:39.:05:43.

the block grant to cushion welfare reform and the Greens wanted even

:05:44.:05:48.

more, the huge amount of money which would drain and haemorrhage the

:05:49.:05:54.

money out of education. I want to be in -- bring Noel Jordan in. You have

:05:55.:05:59.

lots of claims in your manifesto, how will you pay for all those

:06:00.:06:03.

reforms without a serious programme of revenue raising, of which there

:06:04.:06:12.

is very little detail. We will be holding the Executive to account, we

:06:13.:06:16.

will be looking to an executive to find this money from whatever means

:06:17.:06:21.

they can through Treasury. You make the claims, the extravagant claims

:06:22.:06:24.

about what you will do and what needs to be done and then you say it

:06:25.:06:28.

is up to that locked to actually do it. The Executive, we need to sit

:06:29.:06:37.

with like-minded people to budget and prioritise the needs of the

:06:38.:06:40.

people. The people are not worried where the money comes from as long

:06:41.:06:43.

as it delivers for them. How would you tackle hospital waiting lists?

:06:44.:06:50.

The DUP health minister said he is putting an extra ?1 billion then,

:06:51.:06:55.

that is in the manifesto. Do you agree that is a good idea and where

:06:56.:06:59.

would you find the money for that? The money has to be prioritised. I

:07:00.:07:03.

keep going back to this. There is only a certain amount of money and

:07:04.:07:07.

people are real. The people are real. They need dealt with. I know

:07:08.:07:15.

that, but I'm asking how you will deal with them. We will go into

:07:16.:07:20.

Stormont and try and hold the Executive accountable to find money

:07:21.:07:24.

within the budgets to deal with these issues, deal with waiting

:07:25.:07:27.

list, with the vulnerable, with the elderly. The problem we have is we

:07:28.:07:36.

had Arlene Foster saying she was proud her party was a low text

:07:37.:07:43.

party, that means it's also a low spend party. -- low tax party. That

:07:44.:07:52.

is ultimately what their problem is. If they are proud of that policy,

:07:53.:07:57.

they should be proud of waiting lists, proud of the reduction in

:07:58.:08:02.

quality of care people are seeing. How enthusiastic it you about

:08:03.:08:08.

revenue raising? One of the things that has accentuated the problem in

:08:09.:08:11.

waiting lists is the fact this executive has reduced the number of

:08:12.:08:14.

beds in hospitals by 10%. You cannot reduce the number of beds and then

:08:15.:08:19.

be surprised that there is a logjam in A and elsewhere when you need

:08:20.:08:23.

to transfer patients. It is about putting the money out of the

:08:24.:08:26.

bureaucracy and the tears of deputy directors of this that and the

:08:27.:08:29.

other, and putting it into the front line, doctors and nurses and beds

:08:30.:08:36.

which deliver the job. How keen argue on voters and maybe faith

:08:37.:08:40.

putting their hands in their pockets to pay for the kind of investment

:08:41.:08:44.

that you say is necessary. Our front would you be about revenue needing

:08:45.:08:50.

to be raised? Just as corporation tax, I wouldn't let this miserable

:08:51.:08:53.

failing executive put its hand in anyone's pocket. I would not give

:08:54.:08:57.

the Executive any fiscal raising powers. They have demonstrated their

:08:58.:09:00.

inability to deal with the powers they have.

:09:01.:09:04.

Let's have a quick look back at the political week in sixty

:09:05.:09:07.

In the week when the EU referendum campaign began, the board of invest

:09:08.:09:23.

Northern Ireland decided against taking a position on whether the UK

:09:24.:09:28.

should leave or remain. There was unwelcome news for the pro Brexit

:09:29.:09:32.

lobby with bomb by DA's decision to back the campaign to stay in. After

:09:33.:09:39.

controversy over the Prime Minister's finances, politicians

:09:40.:09:42.

here publish their tax details but did the public appreciate the move?

:09:43.:09:47.

We want to know who we are voting for and what they are up to. Think

:09:48.:10:00.

my wife doesn't even seem IP 60! In Dublin, the courtship of

:10:01.:10:02.

independence continued in a bid to form a government. We are getting

:10:03.:10:09.

very used to being love bombed by both sides. The problem here is that

:10:10.:10:16.

he won't love on each other! -- you won't love bomb each other.

:10:17.:10:19.

Gareth Gordon there - and we've just time for a final word

:10:20.:10:22.

We've seen the rise of the smaller parties in the Republic,

:10:23.:10:28.

will the naughty corner at Stormont be getting a few additions, Sam?

:10:29.:10:36.

I think the naughty corner has performed an invaluable public

:10:37.:10:42.

service. If it was left to the Executive parties, the Assembly

:10:43.:10:45.

would just be a rubber-stamping body and what little public interest

:10:46.:10:49.

there is in it from ourselves as the media, from Enders of the public,

:10:50.:10:53.

would not even be there. Very often they have asked the difficult

:10:54.:10:56.

questions on issues where there is this widespread consensus such as

:10:57.:11:01.

corporation tax. Very often it has been the Greens, TUC, asking these.

:11:02.:11:14.

If you can't do that within an Assembly, there is very little point

:11:15.:11:19.

in having an Assembly. Do you think those independent voices are

:11:20.:11:25.

valuable and potentially on the March? I think in many ways the

:11:26.:11:31.

outcome is predictable and that is why many people have turned off. It

:11:32.:11:35.

is the smaller parties and independents that people will be

:11:36.:11:40.

looking to. They have performed an invaluable role where we don't have

:11:41.:11:43.

an opposition, and there is a view out there and opinion polls are

:11:44.:11:48.

telling us, there is a view there isn't enough scrutiny,

:11:49.:11:50.

accountability and the system of scrutiny that currently exists

:11:51.:11:55.

doesn't work, so I can say they will be an increase in vote and certainly

:11:56.:11:58.

because of the EU referendum coming quickly after the election, I think

:11:59.:12:01.

that will provide a bounce for some of the smaller parties. Which should

:12:02.:12:07.

make the point, I was talking about some parties fishing in the same

:12:08.:12:10.

point, given the electoral system we have, that's not the Sara Lee always

:12:11.:12:17.

a catastrophe. It isn't, and particularly when you try to attract

:12:18.:12:23.

transfers for those parties. -- it's not particularly always a

:12:24.:12:26.

catastrophe. That is what makes it so fascinating. Thank you very much.

:12:27.:12:30.

That's it from Sunday Politics for this week.

:12:31.:12:32.

I'll be back on Thursday as usual with The View.

:12:33.:12:34.

But for now, from everyone on the team, bye-bye.

:12:35.:12:40.

Presented by Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers. Labour's Tristram Hunt talks about the potential effects of the UK remaining in the EU, former defence secretary Liam Fox and US State Department spokesman Jamie Rubin debate whether President Obama should intervene in the EU referendum, and Professor John Curtice details the forthcoming elections in May.

Nick Watt of the Guardian, Isabel Oakeshott of the Daily Mail and the FT's Janan Ganesh keep Andrew company throughout the programme.


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