16/10/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


16/10/2016

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer are joined by secretary of state for Scotland David Mundell MP and Conservative MPs Adam Afriyie and Kwasi Kwarteng.


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Boris Johnson hosts a summit of allies in London

:00:36.:00:41.

to discuss how to broker a peace settlement in Syria.

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But as war continues to rage, could "no-bomb zones" -

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thought to be backed by the Foreign Secretary -

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protect civilians, and how would they work?

:00:52.:00:54.

We were told by the Remain campaign that a vote to leave the EU would

:00:55.:00:58.

But with the economy growing and employment at record

:00:59.:01:03.

Can Theresa May make a decision on airport expansion

:01:04.:01:08.

without triggering a Conservative cabinet bust-up

:01:09.:01:10.

We look at what's at stake, as the PM prepares to choose

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And on Sunday Politics Scotland - the SNP aim to put Scotland

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at the heart of Europe and call for a cross-party coalition

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against a hard Brexit at home, but will there be any takers?

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All that to come before 12.15 - and the Scottish Secretary, David

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Mundell, on Nicola Sturgeon's plans for a second referendum

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And with me throughout - Tom Newtown Dunn,

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Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.

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They'll all be tweeting their thoughts and comments

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So, in just over an hour, the Foreign Secretary,

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Boris Johnson, will host a meeting of foreign allies in London,

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including US Secretary of State John Kerry,

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to discuss military options in Syria.

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Last week, Mr Johnson said the public mood had changed

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after relentless bomb attacks on Aleppo

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and that more "kinetic action" might be possible.

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Has the public mood changed on Syria? There is a desire to end the

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horror, but has the public mood really changed? Not really. When

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asked, the Public say that something must be done and we must stop the

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slaughter, but when also asked whether to put British troops there,

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they say, probably not. We have a new Foreign Secretary and British

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government, and we will have a new White House come January for sure.

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So there is a feeling that what has gone so far in terms of not

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intervening, not trying to oppose or block Putin from doing what he wants

:03:00.:03:04.

in Syria has failed, so time to try something else. There was talk of a

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no-fly zone. There's not so much talk about it now. Now there's

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suddenly a no-bomb zone. Are we clear what that would be? It is

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meaningless without a no-fly zone and no one is willing to enforce it.

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For me, the biggest issue is, what is the point of the United Nations?

:03:27.:03:30.

With Russia vetoing any possible peace plan, we are in a situation

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where we are basically handing over our moral authority in the world for

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dealing with humanitarian disasters and war crimes being committed by

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the side regime and Putin to an organisation which is controlled by

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Putin effectively because he has a veto on the Security Council. The

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situation is untenable. We cannot sit and pretend we don't want to be

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involved in this war. We are already at war, and we will be at war. We

:04:05.:04:07.

need to get to grips with it sooner or later. If we are willing to say

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that we don't care about Syrian children dying... But we are not

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willing to say that, so we need to do something about it. We could care

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deeply but admits there is not something we can do about it.

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Indeed. When Julia says "Get involved", that does not translate

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to anything precise or specific. The problem is you go round in circles

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when it comes to reaction, because when people are then asked what the

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endgame is - and you do need to have a sense of the end and an aim, and

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one of the problems with Iraq was that there was not that - you can

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simply say, something needs to be done and we are involved and there

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should be military action, but that raises 10,000 other questions which

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no one is capable of answering. As I understand it, the no-bomb zone

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would be that we would designate areas where no bombing would be

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allowed. We wouldn't have planes to stop it happening, but if bombing

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did happen in those areas, we would use missiles to take out Syrian

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infrastructure. It seems complicated, and to not take into

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account what we would do if the Russians put anti-missile batteries

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around this Syrian infrastructure, as well they might. And you could go

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one step further. Your understanding is the same as mine. Doing something

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to prevent drops being -- ones being dropped in that area, but without

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engaging with Russia. You could fire cruise missiles into a runway, which

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we were warned could be done, but the problem is, you could have a

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Russian jet in the middle of that runway, or a bus of school kids. We

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know that they are capable of doing that. You are looking towards a

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confrontation with Russia, what ever you do. Boris Johnson would say this

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is the kind of HARDtalk we need to get the man to listen, because

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everything else has failed. Mr Kerry being there is significant, but at

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this stage in the election cycle, it's hard to sue what -- see what Mr

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Obama would do. We have no idea what to reason may's foreign policy is in

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terms of intervention. The last thing she would want to do is to get

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involved in a Middle Eastern war. But we are already involved. And the

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idea that our entire foreign policy should be based on not having a

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conflict in the Putin... The West as a whole is not wanting to have a

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conflict with him, and that is why he is acting how he is.

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Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has repeated her

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warning that, if the UK leaves the single market, she will push for

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Speaking to Andrew Marr earlier this morning, Ms Sturgeon said

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she would not hesitate to protect Scotland's economic interests.

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There's a principle here about, you know,

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Does what we think, and what we say, and how

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And that's what's going to be put to the test, I think,

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Theresa May, perfectly legitimately, says she values the UK,

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In the Independence Referendum, Scotland was told repeatedly

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My message to the Prime Minister is, it's now time to prove these

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things, and demonstrate to Scotland that our voice does count

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within the UK, and our interests can be protected.

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Because if that's not the case, then I think Scotland

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would have the right to decide whether it wanted to follow

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I've been joined by the Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. During the Scottish referendum

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campaign, two years ago, the ETA Together campaign claimed that the

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only guaranteed way for Scotland to remain in the EU was to stay in the

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UK. That turned out to be untrue. You owe the people of Scotland an

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apology. That isn't the full facts. It was made clear during the

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referendum in Scotland that there could be an EU referendum. Ruth

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Davidson, on many occasions, made it clear that people in Scotland would

:08:34.:08:36.

have the opportunity to vote on whether or not they remained in the

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EU. What was clear in that referendum, and you played a

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significant part in highlighting it, was that those who were advocating a

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yes vote could not set out a clear route for Scotland to get into the

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EU as an independent nation. They were told if they stayed in the UK,

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that was their best route to remaining in Europe. It turned out,

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it is obvious that that was untrue. It was a route that meant there was

:09:08.:09:11.

going to be an EU referendum. That was made very clear throughout that.

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People voted in Scotland decisively to remain part of the UK in full

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knowledge that there would be a referendum on whether the United

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Kingdom remained in the European Union. That is what the vote on the

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23rd of June in Scotland was about. It was about the UK remaining in the

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EU, not Scotland. The people of Scotland were told to vote for the

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union to be sure of staying in the UK. They also voted 62% to 38% to

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stay in the EU. Now they are being dragged out against their will.

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Surely that is grounds for a second Scottish referendum? I don't accept

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that. I've voted to stay in the EU, but I didn't do so on the basis that

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if I didn't get my own way that Scotland would be dragged out of the

:10:02.:10:06.

United Kingdom. We have had a once in a generation vote as to whether

:10:07.:10:13.

Scotland remained part of the UK. There was a decisive result in that.

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On the assumption that we would also remain part of the European Union,

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so a major change has taken place. I don't accept that analysis. People

:10:23.:10:26.

were told that there would be a vote on whether the UK remained in the

:10:27.:10:31.

EU. The reasons for Scotland remaining in the UK were

:10:32.:10:34.

overwhelmingly economic, and those issues remain today in relation to

:10:35.:10:40.

the UK single market. It is very odd that people who are concerned about

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the EU single market are quite willing to

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give up the UK single market, which is four times as valuable to

:11:01.:11:02.

Scotland, and responsible for a million jobs. If the Scottish

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Government demands another referendum, will the UK Government

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grant it? The UK Government will have two agreed to a referendum, but

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we want to argue that there shouldn't be another referendum. It

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is in Scotland's best interests at the two governments work together

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with 18 UK approach to get the best possible situation for Scotland...

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If the Scottish Parliament decides that we do want -- we do not like

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the terms of Brexit and we want another referendum, would you grant

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it? There would have to be an agreement between the two

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governments in the same form as the Edinburgh Agreement. The great shame

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of the Edinburgh Agreement, which the SNP used to quote repeatedly, is

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that they have not adhere to it, because a fundamental part of that

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would be that both sides would respect the result. Viewers will

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notice that you haven't really answered my question. Could Scotland

:11:59.:12:02.

remain inside the single market in Europe as part of the Brexit

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process? From the outset, I have said we would listen to any proposal

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that the Scottish Government brought forward in relation to Scotland's

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interests. We have had for months and no specific proposals have come

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forward. Nicola Sturgeon was talking about proposals this morning, but at

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this moment, I see it impossible that Scotland could remain within

:12:27.:12:33.

the EU whilst the rest of the UK leads. It would be difficult to see

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how that could be achieved. But we will listen to any proposals the

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Scottish Government bring forward in relation to achieving the best

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interests of Scotland. I am convinced that Scotland's best

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interests are being part of the UK. You praised Scotland's membership of

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the single market during the referendum. In March of this year

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you said it secured jobs, was vital to tourism and industry, inbound

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visitors and the rest of it. So why would you not want to retain it for

:13:05.:13:09.

Scotland? I agree with the benefits Scotland has received from the

:13:10.:13:13.

single market, but we are in a different situation now. The UK is

:13:14.:13:19.

negotiating its exit from the EU. The Prime Minister has said it is

:13:20.:13:23.

not going to be on the basis of existing arrangements, it will be on

:13:24.:13:28.

the basis of a new arrangement, and as part of that, we will want to

:13:29.:13:33.

secure the best arrangement for Scottish businesses. Given the

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history we have gone through, do you want to guarantee a special post

:13:40.:13:42.

Brexit status for Scotland. We leave the EU, but Scotland will have a

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distinct status? I'm willing to look at any proposal brought forward that

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looks at Scotland's interests. We have had no specifics from the

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Scottish Government. They say now that they have them. It is a bit rum

:13:58.:14:06.

to attack the Scottish Government. The principle is, could Scotland

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have a special position, and would you help that or not? I am willing

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to listen to any proposal brought forward. Will fishing and farming go

:14:16.:14:20.

back to Edinburgh? The devolution settlement are going to be a

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change,... Will they go to Edinburgh or to London? We will have a

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decision at the end of that process. I want to make sure we have the best

:14:34.:14:39.

arrangement for Scotland. You can't answer the question? We want to

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listen to what fishermen and farmers say, and the people of Scotland. It

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will be a package of arrangements, clearly, that need to be taken

:14:50.:14:54.

forward as a result of leaving the EU. One final question. If the

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Scottish Nationalist MPs vote against grammar schools, which are

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purely for England, isn't that proof that your English votes for English

:15:04.:15:05.

laws isn't working? It demonstrates all MPs in the

:15:06.:15:15.

Parliament have the opportunity to vote on all issues. You wouldn't

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mind if they voted to stop Grammar schools? Of course I wouldn't --

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would mind... I think we have got the balance right in that

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legislation. It is meaningless if they can vote to stop grammar

:15:40.:15:41.

schools when it doesn't affect Scotland. They have to answer for

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that, based on an opportunistic approach and cause resentment in

:15:49.:15:52.

England. Thank you for being with us.

:15:53.:15:53.

During the EU Referendum campaign, leading Remain supporters repeatedly

:15:54.:15:55.

warned that a vote to leave the European Union would cause

:15:56.:15:58.

Three months on, were their forecasts accurate?

:15:59.:16:02.

Since the vote on June 23rd, the economic news

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The value of the pound has been in pretty steady depreciation

:16:07.:16:10.

since referendum day, falling to a 31-year

:16:11.:16:12.

It was as low as $1.18 but has still rebounded a bit.

:16:13.:16:20.

The weak pound left Tesco in a situation.

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They stopped selling Marmite and other products for a day online

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And a leaked Treasury report said that Government tax revenues

:16:28.:16:31.

could be down by 66 billion a year in a post-Brexit economy.

:16:32.:16:34.

Though the report emanated from Project Fear days.

:16:35.:16:41.

However, many of the short-term economic fundamentals

:16:42.:16:43.

The dominant service sector grew a healthy 0.4% in July.

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In the same month, the unemployment rate dipped to under 5%,

:16:52.:16:54.

House-buying has also been rising since the referendum,

:16:55.:17:00.

nearly 110,000 properties were purchased in August.

:17:01.:17:03.

Is the economy already suffering from the Brexit blues or not?

:17:04.:17:10.

Joining me now is the former shadow Europe Minister,

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the Labour MP Pat McFadden, who was a Business Minister

:17:14.:17:15.

Do you know concede that nearly all the short-term economic forecasts

:17:16.:17:29.

made by the Remain campaign have turned out to be untrue at best,

:17:30.:17:34.

scaremongering at worst? No, I think this week was the week that the

:17:35.:17:39.

beginnings of the economic effects of Brexit began to take hold, most

:17:40.:17:44.

obviously on the currency fall. You talk about short-term, this began on

:17:45.:17:48.

the night of the referendum itself and was given booster rockets by the

:17:49.:17:53.

signals sent out by the Conservative Party conference. In terms of the

:17:54.:17:58.

warnings next to reality, the warnings about the fall of the

:17:59.:18:01.

currency speculated that it might fall in value by about 12%, the

:18:02.:18:08.

reality is closer to 20%. Let's look at some of the warnings. We will

:18:09.:18:17.

come back to the currency, but let's look at this. The Treasury report on

:18:18.:18:19.

maybe 23rd said the following: That turned out to be untrue, didn't

:18:20.:18:33.

it? What has happened here, which isn't in line with those warnings,

:18:34.:18:38.

is consumer confidence has remained high. The actions of the Bank of

:18:39.:18:41.

England in cutting interest have been important, so the short-term

:18:42.:18:45.

effect in terms of consumer confidence... So it is wrong? Hasn't

:18:46.:18:53.

turned out in line with that, but it would be complacent in the extreme

:18:54.:18:57.

to conclude that with the effects of the currency which we know also from

:18:58.:19:01.

the Bank of England's comments the other dates will feed into higher

:19:02.:19:07.

prices, which will hit lower income consumers hardest. But we don't know

:19:08.:19:15.

yet, I will come onto that but in the short term, I will show you

:19:16.:19:19.

another one. A month before the referendum, the Chancellor George

:19:20.:19:20.

Osborne said this: That turned out to be wronged too,

:19:21.:19:34.

didn't it? We are not in recession but if you look at the forecasts of

:19:35.:19:38.

growth over the next few years, the Bank of England have forecast growth

:19:39.:19:43.

next year to not be the 2.3% it thought before the referendum but to

:19:44.:19:52.

be 0.8%. Is it forecasting a recession? No, but it is forecasting

:19:53.:19:56.

a slowdown which would mean GDP after two years would be for the ?5

:19:57.:20:02.

billion less than the estimates before the referendum took place.

:20:03.:20:05.

And it might be wrong, because look, it was wrong about the recession. Is

:20:06.:20:12.

anybody now forecasting a recession? I don't know if anybody is

:20:13.:20:18.

forecasting a recession. The IMF are certainly forecasting a slowdown in

:20:19.:20:21.

a similar way to the Bank of England. George Osborne also said

:20:22.:20:28.

house prices will plummet by 18%. Any sign of that? House prices are

:20:29.:20:36.

not plummeting by 18%. Your side that you represent made much of the

:20:37.:20:40.

IMF's claim that provoked Leave would mean an immediate slide into

:20:41.:20:45.

recession, a collapse in house prices, and a crash in stock markets

:20:46.:20:52.

which of course are currently at record levels. Even the IMF admits

:20:53.:21:00.

there is none of that. There maybe longer term dangers but in the

:21:01.:21:05.

short-term it happen. In the short-term it didn't happen. In the

:21:06.:21:09.

short term what has happened here, as I said a moment ago, is consumer

:21:10.:21:14.

confidence has remained high, the Bank of England cut interest rates

:21:15.:21:18.

which put more money into people's pockets and I think the action they

:21:19.:21:23.

took was important, but I think it would be wrong to say imply that

:21:24.:21:27.

because these things haven't happened in the first few months

:21:28.:21:32.

that we are somehow out of the woods on the economy. I understand that,

:21:33.:21:36.

that's the last thing I would say, but here's the question - most of

:21:37.:21:40.

these forecasters are still pretty gloomy about the long-term but if

:21:41.:21:44.

they couldn't get the last few months right, why would you trust

:21:45.:21:50.

them for 2025 when they couldn't say what will happen in September? Why

:21:51.:21:55.

would you trust them to say what happens five years from now? People

:21:56.:22:02.

will ask the question but the big tangible we have is in the decline

:22:03.:22:08.

of the currency and that is a real and now effect. We can talk about

:22:09.:22:13.

whether it is lost or minus, but the Government said the other day this

:22:14.:22:17.

would bring inflation back, to use his words it is going to get

:22:18.:22:21.

difficult, particularly for people on lower incomes and that will feed

:22:22.:22:26.

into people's purchasing power. The international markets partaking of

:22:27.:22:30.

you have our future prospects and at the moment it is not a vote of

:22:31.:22:36.

confidence. Do you agree with the latest Remain mantra that people

:22:37.:22:40.

might have voted to leave the EU but didn't necessarily vote to leave the

:22:41.:22:46.

single market? I do agree with that. A lot of people have said people who

:22:47.:22:49.

voted to leave didn't know that's what they were voting for, so let me

:22:50.:22:54.

show you a clip of David Cameron at the height of the referendum

:22:55.:22:59.

campaign. The British public would be voting if we leave to leave the

:23:00.:23:04.

EU and the single market, we then have to negotiate a trade deal from

:23:05.:23:09.

outside with the European Union. There you have it loud and clear on

:23:10.:23:14.

BBC television, voting Leave means leaving the single market, not

:23:15.:23:19.

losing access to it but leaving the membership of it. We have George

:23:20.:23:23.

Osborne on tape saying the same thing, so why do you make out Leave

:23:24.:23:28.

voters didn't know what they were voting for? I think people voted

:23:29.:23:33.

Leave for a number of different reasons. For some it might have been

:23:34.:23:37.

immigration, for some it might have been the promise of more money for

:23:38.:23:42.

the NHS, but there are number of countries outside the EU which can

:23:43.:23:46.

have full access to the single market, we know about Norway and on.

:23:47.:23:51.

But they all have to pay in and have free movement. We can come onto that

:23:52.:23:57.

but what I'm saying is it's not the case that when you are outside the

:23:58.:24:01.

EU you necessarily have to be outside the single market and the

:24:02.:24:05.

reason this is important is because this has been a cornerstone of

:24:06.:24:09.

British economic policy for many years, particularly in terms of our

:24:10.:24:16.

inward investment, and the reasons why both manufacturing industry and

:24:17.:24:19.

financial services has invested and created employment in the UK, and I

:24:20.:24:25.

think it would be cavalier to begin this negotiation by closing the door

:24:26.:24:30.

on that. Is it Labour's policy, I know you don't speak for Labour

:24:31.:24:34.

leadership, but is it their policy to remain in the single market? You

:24:35.:24:39.

are right, I'm a backbencher, but it is the policy to have as full access

:24:40.:24:44.

as possible to the single market. At least what we have now in terms of

:24:45.:24:51.

goods and services. You can call it membership or not but that is what

:24:52.:24:54.

Keir Starmer and the Labour Party wants. The old party home affairs

:24:55.:25:02.

select committee is blaming Jeremy Corbyn's lack of leadership for

:25:03.:25:05.

creating a safe space for what they call vile anti-Semitism. Do you

:25:06.:25:12.

agree with that? I think this report should be taken seriously. The

:25:13.:25:16.

atmosphere in the Labour Party, there has been a lot of nasty things

:25:17.:25:21.

said on social media over the past year in particular. I hope we don't

:25:22.:25:26.

make the mistake of shooting the messenger, I hope we take the report

:25:27.:25:30.

seriously and I hope we don't fall into the trap that sometimes I see

:25:31.:25:34.

when these accusations are wielded, that we point to antiracism records

:25:35.:25:40.

and say look at our virtue in our record here, that must mean we

:25:41.:25:45.

cannot be anti-Semitic. Let me be clear about this, pointing to your

:25:46.:25:49.

own sense of righteousness is no excuse for nastiness or cruelty to

:25:50.:25:52.

someone else so we should take this very seriously indeed. Pat McFadden,

:25:53.:25:58.

thank you for being with us this morning.

:25:59.:26:03.

A third runway at Heathrow was first given the green

:26:04.:26:06.

light by Gordon Brown's government in 2009.

:26:07.:26:08.

Almost eight years on, could Theresa May be about finally

:26:09.:26:10.

to allow Heathrow expansion to go ahead?

:26:11.:26:12.

Or could she surprise everyone and back Gatwick instead?

:26:13.:26:16.

Maybe she will come out in favour of both of them!

:26:17.:26:19.

A decision is expected imminently, but it's not straightforward

:26:20.:26:21.

Several members of her cabinet are opposed to any plan to expand

:26:22.:26:25.

Heathrow, and reports suggest as many as 60 of her backbenchers

:26:26.:26:27.

Our reporter, Mark Lobel, has been looking at

:26:28.:26:31.

A growing number of people want to take more flights and some

:26:32.:26:40.

accuse the Government of dragging their feet over

:26:41.:26:42.

All the while, our airports are operating flat-out.

:26:43.:26:52.

So this is fully autonomous, you just have to press the start

:26:53.:26:59.

Matthew Hill is from a business-backed group campaigning

:27:00.:27:05.

We haven't had a full-length runway in London and the south-east

:27:06.:27:09.

Gatwick was built in the 1930s, Heathrow in the 1940s,

:27:10.:27:14.

Heathrow is full, Gatwick will be full in the next few years.

:27:15.:27:20.

Matthew's group claims the lack of a new runway is costing us

:27:21.:27:23.

I think there are huge economic benefits from the construction

:27:24.:27:30.

At the moment, because we don't have that new runway, we don't

:27:31.:27:34.

have that new capacity, the new flights to new markets,

:27:35.:27:36.

we are missing out on ?9.5 billion a year in lost trade.

:27:37.:27:40.

Until we get that decision and we get that runway

:27:41.:27:42.

built, we will continue to lose out on that trade.

:27:43.:27:46.

One airport that's eager to expand is Heathrow,

:27:47.:27:49.

either by expanding this northern runway, the one closest to us here,

:27:50.:27:52.

or, the Airports Commission's favourite proposal, building

:27:53.:27:55.

a new runway parallel to here, about a kilometre that way in place

:27:56.:27:59.

It's said that would offer 40 new destinations from the airport,

:28:00.:28:07.

carry lots more air freight, provide 70,000 new jobs

:28:08.:28:09.

and an overall boost to economic activity in the country,

:28:10.:28:14.

with a promise of no night flights, new environmental and community

:28:15.:28:17.

Heathrow's hub status also services many of the UK's other airports,

:28:18.:28:27.

On average, every year a quarter of a million passengers travel

:28:28.:28:33.

to and from this key exporting region via Heathrow,

:28:34.:28:35.

While we've been very strong supporters of a third runway

:28:36.:28:41.

at Heathrow, we think it's in the best interests

:28:42.:28:43.

of the north-east, we also think it's in the best

:28:44.:28:45.

Our services connect to many, many destinations across the world,

:28:46.:28:54.

and allow businesses to trade right the way across the globe.

:28:55.:29:02.

Gatwick Airport also wants to expand with another runway here.

:29:03.:29:08.

By doubling Gatwick's capacity, the plan would create 22,000

:29:09.:29:11.

new jobs, a vastly expanded short-haul network, and more

:29:12.:29:14.

I think the expansion of Gatwick will bring firstly

:29:15.:29:20.

the certainty of delivery, we can have spades in the ground

:29:21.:29:23.

in this Parliament and we can be operational in the next,

:29:24.:29:29.

so that's within ten years we can have a new runway,

:29:30.:29:31.

and Gatwick can provide the increased capacity at a price

:29:32.:29:34.

Now, before anyone gets carried away, there are of course some

:29:35.:29:42.

people who would far prefer no extra planes in the sky.

:29:43.:29:48.

We already fly more than everybody else,

:29:49.:29:50.

most of these are leisure flights, well who's taking

:29:51.:29:52.

Actually 70% of all of our flights are taken by 15% of the population.

:29:53.:29:58.

It's a wealthy frequent-flying elite.

:29:59.:30:02.

But with approval of a third runway looking likely,

:30:03.:30:07.

could more protests be on the horizon?

:30:08.:30:16.

I can tell you now, they are dusting off the handcuffs, you know,

:30:17.:30:20.

And you have to remember, Heathrow, if they choose to expand

:30:21.:30:23.

Heathrow, you are talking about hundreds of homes

:30:24.:30:25.

being bulldozed, whole communities being eradicated, wiped off the map.

:30:26.:30:28.

Over the last few years, since the last big protest around

:30:29.:30:31.

Heathrow, the relationship between local people around

:30:32.:30:33.

the airport and grass roots climate change activists

:30:34.:30:36.

Those guys are going to get together and just cause merry hell for people

:30:37.:30:41.

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, who once called for a better not

:30:42.:30:50.

bigger Heathrow whilst in opposition, will chair a select

:30:51.:30:53.

group of colleagues expected to decide imminently

:30:54.:30:56.

on whether to build a new runway and where.

:30:57.:30:59.

It will then take months for a national policy statement

:31:00.:31:02.

outlining the new works to get drawn up before MPs get to vote on it,

:31:03.:31:07.

leaving plenty of time for any further opposition to airport

:31:08.:31:11.

I've been joined by two Conservative MPs.

:31:12.:31:19.

Adam Afriyie is opposed to Heathrow expansion,

:31:20.:31:21.

Adam, the independent Daviess report into runway expansion said the case

:31:22.:31:42.

for Heathrow was clear and unanimous in the Commission. 180,000 more

:31:43.:31:48.

jobs, more than ?200 billion in economic benefits. So why are you

:31:49.:31:53.

putting the interests of your constituency before the national

:31:54.:31:57.

interest? I will fight tooth and nail for the interests of my

:31:58.:31:59.

constituents, but the wonderful thing about the binary choice

:32:00.:32:03.

between Heathrow and Gatwick is that it is not in the regional or

:32:04.:32:08.

consumers' interests to expand Heathrow. The Daviess report has

:32:09.:32:16.

already been largely undermined. There are 17 reasons why it doesn't

:32:17.:32:22.

work and is wrong. Number one, they said Gatwick would not have 42

:32:23.:32:29.

million passengers until 2024. This year, they already have 42 million

:32:30.:32:33.

passengers. Gatwick have increased their destinations to 20 now, which

:32:34.:32:38.

they didn't expect either. The Davies review was good in its day,

:32:39.:32:43.

but is it had a limited remit. They were talking about Heathrow as a

:32:44.:32:49.

hub, but the airline industry has changed. We have to pay to this for

:32:50.:32:55.

more than 15 years. The government White Paper in 2003 suggested we

:32:56.:33:04.

should expand Heathrow. ?20 million and 12 years later, the Davis Report

:33:05.:33:09.

came to the same conclusion. We are never going to get any form of

:33:10.:33:11.

progress on this is competing MPs never going to get any form of

:33:12.:33:16.

are allowed to frustrate the process. You could have had about

:33:17.:33:21.

three people who are Gatwick MPs arguing very passionately against

:33:22.:33:26.

Adam's desire to expand Gatwick. The point is, we are in a paralysis. We

:33:27.:33:31.

are having a theological debate that will last decades, and Heathrow

:33:32.:33:39.

is... Why Heathrow? Why not expand Gatwick and increase the capacity of

:33:40.:33:42.

our regional airports? I thought the government's strategy was to

:33:43.:33:46.

rebalance the economy in favour of the North and the Midlands. If you

:33:47.:33:52.

listen to northern MPs, or people representing Northern or Scottish

:33:53.:33:56.

interests, they all say they want to increase Heathrow. The SNP said last

:33:57.:34:01.

week they wanted Heathrow to be expanded. If you want to help the

:34:02.:34:04.

economy is in those areas, listen to what they are saying. They are

:34:05.:34:11.

saying expand Heathrow. 32 regional airports support the expansion of

:34:12.:34:16.

Heathrow to maintain its position as one of the global hubs. Even the

:34:17.:34:21.

Scottish Government agrees with expanding Heathrow. They all say, we

:34:22.:34:26.

want to be a serious player in aviation. We need a global hub, and

:34:27.:34:31.

that is Heathrow. The interesting thing is that there is no argument

:34:32.:34:35.

that Heathrow is the UK hub, and no one is trying to get rid of that.

:34:36.:34:40.

But if you are adding a single new runway, is it better to add it at

:34:41.:34:43.

Heathrow or Gatwick, and for me it is overwhelmingly clear. Heathrow is

:34:44.:35:01.

the most expensive airport in the world. If you add another runway at

:35:02.:35:03.

taxpayer expense, you make it even more expensive. So flight prices go

:35:04.:35:06.

up. Whether or not Heathrow could ever be delivered is another

:35:07.:35:08.

question. My own Borough Council as part of the legal action... So even

:35:09.:35:13.

if the decision is made, we may not see the capacity. At Gatwick is dirt

:35:14.:35:19.

cheap. It can be delivered within ten years. But it is not a global

:35:20.:35:26.

hub airport. But the hub that we have at Heathrow is perfectly

:35:27.:35:30.

adequate for the next ten or 15 years. It is running at 99%

:35:31.:35:38.

capacity. Every airline, the new planes being ordered... The airline

:35:39.:35:43.

have decided that the hub capacity is sufficient and they are moving to

:35:44.:35:50.

a different model. Let me ask you this. We haven't built a major new

:35:51.:35:54.

runway in London and the south-east for 60 years. Since 1946, so 70

:35:55.:36:03.

years. Why not expand Heathrow and Gatwick? Personally, I would do

:36:04.:36:09.

both. If we are serious about having international trade and Golding

:36:10.:36:13.

links to the outside world, especially after Brexit, we have to

:36:14.:36:17.

get serious about aviation and accept that we need more capacity. I

:36:18.:36:22.

think it's scandalous we haven't managed to expand capacity for 70

:36:23.:36:26.

years, when we think of the economic growth that has happened in that

:36:27.:36:31.

time. If we want to build a prosperous economy, it seems bizarre

:36:32.:36:35.

we are reluctant to increase aviation. Whatever the decision, do

:36:36.:36:39.

you think there will be a free vote on this? I think this is one area

:36:40.:36:52.

where I think the government does need to take a lead, and I hope they

:36:53.:36:55.

will make a rational choice for Gatwick. If the government comes out

:36:56.:36:58.

for Heathrow, will you defy the whips? Yes. I will always vote for

:36:59.:37:03.

for Heathrow, will you defy the Heathrow, because it doesn't make

:37:04.:37:04.

for Heathrow, will you defy the economic sense. If MPs are happy at

:37:05.:37:12.

the prospect of Heathrow... Does the figure strike a chord with you? I

:37:13.:37:16.

would hope there would be more, but it depends on the political position

:37:17.:37:22.

of Labour and the SNP. I hope that the government decides

:37:23.:37:26.

inclusively... Ad is doing what he feels is the best for his

:37:27.:37:31.

constituents. I think 60 is way off the mark. I don't know what

:37:32.:37:39.

journalists suggested 60 Tory MPs. My sense is that it is probably

:37:40.:37:43.

about 20 hard-core people in the House of Commons. I think it will be

:37:44.:37:50.

a free vote. If it is 20 hard-core, you will need Labour to get it

:37:51.:37:55.

through? Labour MPs were very keen on supporting Heathrow, in my

:37:56.:38:02.

experience. It may be delayed again, of course. After 70 years, what's

:38:03.:38:04.

another week here or there! Good morning and welcome

:38:05.:38:07.

to Sunday Politics Scotland. She's set out the stall -

:38:08.:38:15.

Scotland at the heart of Europe We'll be asking the SNP's newly

:38:16.:38:20.

elected deputy leader just how the party will to turn its grand

:38:21.:38:25.

plans into reality. We will also work to persuade

:38:26.:38:43.

others, labour, liberals and moderate Tories to join us in a

:38:44.:38:48.

coalition against a hard Brexit, not just for Scotland, but for the whole

:38:49.:38:50.

of the UK. Labour's only MP in Scotland tells

:38:51.:38:51.

us if he thinks the call for an alliance against hard Brexit

:38:52.:38:54.

matches the mood in Westminster. So the First Minister's set

:38:55.:38:57.

piece speech at the end of the SNP conference was -

:38:58.:38:59.

as promised - full There were initiatives

:39:00.:39:01.

on trade, and Trident. And a revolution in the way young

:39:02.:39:04.

people in care are looked after. But - inevitably -

:39:05.:39:07.

analysts will be poring over the details of what Nicola Sturgeon

:39:08.:39:10.

did - and didn't - Not least because -

:39:11.:39:12.

at the start of the conference - she'd announced a quick consultation

:39:13.:39:16.

on legislation for The SEC see a Glasgow plays host to

:39:17.:39:28.

all kinds of events. Just a couple of weeks ago, at comic con, super

:39:29.:39:32.

heroes and villains took over the halls. For the past few days, the

:39:33.:39:36.

costumes have been more restrained, but the conference has had heroes

:39:37.:39:42.

and heroines. On day one, they stood and applauded as the First Minister

:39:43.:39:47.

promised a consultation on and independence referendum. The

:39:48.:39:52.

independence referendum bill will be published for consultation next

:39:53.:40:01.

week. Once the speech was over, what did they think of that? She said

:40:02.:40:06.

this because it's the democratic right of the people in Scotland to

:40:07.:40:10.

not be dragged out of Europe against their will and we have to start

:40:11.:40:12.

laying the foundations for a new their will and we have to start

:40:13.:40:17.

referendum, should all other avenues fail. Scotland needs to get out of

:40:18.:40:21.

the nightmare situation that we are in right now, being bossed by

:40:22.:40:28.

Westminster. It's what Scotland voters need to hear. We will have

:40:29.:40:31.

the consultation next week and see what is in that. I'm not saying we

:40:32.:40:37.

are shooting ourselves in the front, if this is to quit. A fringe event

:40:38.:40:43.

discusses renewing the case for independence. Has something gone

:40:44.:40:48.

wrong with the argument or the weight is presented? It is

:40:49.:40:51.

self-evident that is the case for independence always has to be

:40:52.:40:54.

reviewed and updated and we have to look at what things worked in 2014

:40:55.:40:58.

and what didn't. We also have to look at how the world has changed

:40:59.:41:01.

since then. There is a lot of thoughtful going on on what the next

:41:02.:41:06.

offer of Independence will actually look like. It is looking at those

:41:07.:41:10.

areas that we maybe didn't give enough information to the public who

:41:11.:41:16.

were maybe under standard or the voters, that helped them come to the

:41:17.:41:19.

conclusion that independence is the way forward. We have to have sound

:41:20.:41:24.

answers about currency, about banking, about what we would

:41:25.:41:29.

nationalise, what we wouldn't. To build the basis, for building a new

:41:30.:41:37.

Scotland. A country that works and is effective. The organiser wants a

:41:38.:41:41.

new claim of Right for Scotland, published on St Andrew's Day 2018.

:41:42.:41:48.

What we need now is not a more sprawling vision document like last

:41:49.:41:52.

White Paper, but something that is a consolidated business plan, so it is

:41:53.:41:56.

a workmanlike business plan saying what processes, institutions, rules

:41:57.:42:00.

we would need to produce to create an independent Scotland that we

:42:01.:42:03.

currently don't have an saying here is how we will do it, this is what

:42:04.:42:06.

it will cost and this is how we will get it done. Nicola Sturgeon was

:42:07.:42:14.

back on stage yesterday, picking up the I word. Your Mac or not that

:42:15.:42:23.

one. Not yet! The word I want you to remember is this. Inclusion.

:42:24.:42:26.

Inclusion is the guiding principle for everything we do. She went on to

:42:27.:42:35.

talk twice about Scotland's home rule journey. So what did delegates

:42:36.:42:40.

and members leaving the conference think? She was reserved enough but

:42:41.:42:44.

gets us happy in terms of keeping independence on the table. She has

:42:45.:42:47.

been quite clear that that is on the table amongst other options.

:42:48.:42:52.

Inclusion is important. Inclusion is really important. We want a much

:42:53.:42:56.

fairer Scotland. We are on our way. What she said today is I don't care

:42:57.:43:02.

what you say, somewhere along the line if we don't get the deal we

:43:03.:43:06.

want from down the road, we will go for independence two. But David

:43:07.:43:10.

Cameron's story tells us things can for independence two. But David

:43:11.:43:14.

go badly wrong for a leader who calls a referendum just to keep

:43:15.:43:18.

their party happy. Avoiding that trap may need political superpowers

:43:19.:43:21.

their party happy. Avoiding that will stop so perhaps there is more

:43:22.:43:24.

in common with comic con than you might imagine.

:43:25.:43:26.

Joining me now from Moray is the SNP's newly elected deputy

:43:27.:43:28.

Angus, Nicola Sturgeon this morning said she was focusing on trying to

:43:29.:43:46.

convince the British government to take seriously some of the Scottish

:43:47.:43:50.

permits's proposals on Brexit. She seemed to accept that Scotland could

:43:51.:43:56.

not really, in any meaningful sense, negotiate with the EU. You would

:43:57.:44:04.

accept that, too, presumably? The focus is absolutely on trying to

:44:05.:44:07.

impress on the UK Government that it has to do find a bespoke solution to

:44:08.:44:15.

the Brexit conundrum that satisfied both the 62% vote in Scotland to

:44:16.:44:20.

remain within the EU, but also the vote south of the border in favour

:44:21.:44:25.

of Brexit. That is why the Scottish Government has laid an offer on the

:44:26.:44:30.

table to work with the UK Government to try to protect Scottish interests

:44:31.:44:31.

in the EU context, foremost amongst to try to protect Scottish interests

:44:32.:44:39.

that is remaining within the single market, but there are other areas of

:44:40.:44:42.

priority which the Scottish element will be outlining in the weeks

:44:43.:44:46.

ahead. Have you had any indication... Have you had any

:44:47.:44:52.

indication... You are the lead at Westminster. The indication is the

:44:53.:44:56.

UK Government will take that seriously. Whilst the straws in the

:44:57.:45:00.

wind are not particularly good, the rhetoric saying that, of course one

:45:01.:45:03.

is going to liaise with the Scottish Government and so on, the rhetoric

:45:04.:45:10.

exists, but the reality points to something far less convincing. Just

:45:11.:45:14.

this week, for example, we have the publication of the key committees

:45:15.:45:19.

that the UK Government is considering Brexit in the Secretary

:45:20.:45:23.

of State for Scotland is not a serious player in that. It doesn't

:45:24.:45:28.

look as if the UK Government is taking things seriously thus far,

:45:29.:45:32.

which is why I think the First Minister's unambiguous statements

:45:33.:45:37.

are very helpful and it has clearly been heard, as we know the rounds of

:45:38.:45:44.

interviews on today because of political programmes across the

:45:45.:45:46.

networks have all led on the Scottish dimension to the Brexit

:45:47.:45:50.

challenge. And so I hope and we hope quite genuinely that to reason me

:45:51.:45:55.

and her colleagues understand that they do have to seriously work with

:45:56.:45:59.

the Scottish Government is to try to find ways of protecting Scotland's

:46:00.:46:04.

place in Europe whilst quite properly having to respect the

:46:05.:46:08.

mandate that exists south of the border in favour of Brexit. I

:46:09.:46:13.

wondered if you and the SNP had noted the meeting that is to reason

:46:14.:46:19.

me had with the boss of Nissan on Friday, which he seemed very happy

:46:20.:46:24.

with. There was all sorts of talk in the financial papers afterwards that

:46:25.:46:28.

there might be... Can you repeat that? I wondered if you noted the

:46:29.:46:35.

meeting that to Reza me had with the head of Nissan, who seemed happy

:46:36.:46:43.

after the meeting. I'm sorry, the sound is breaking out. I heard was I

:46:44.:46:47.

aware of the meeting between the Prime Minister and suddenly from

:46:48.:46:53.

Nissan. I've not. But I hope that the UK Government is listening to

:46:54.:46:57.

the great many people in the business community, for whom the UK

:46:58.:47:02.

remaining within the single market, not just having access to it, is

:47:03.:47:05.

fundamentally important. That is really relevant in the north-east of

:47:06.:47:10.

England with the Nissan works there, but there are many other companies,

:47:11.:47:14.

many other industries for whom being a part of the single market is

:47:15.:47:18.

really important and I join you from the heart of Scotland's food and

:47:19.:47:23.

drink industry, where it is really, really important that if you are

:47:24.:47:29.

producing foodstuffs or shellfish, which are largely exported into the

:47:30.:47:33.

single market or all of the whiskey distilleries that surround me, it is

:47:34.:47:37.

really important that we don't support the kind of barriers in

:47:38.:47:41.

place to the largest single market in the world. My apologies for this

:47:42.:47:47.

line, Angus Robertson. I hope you can hear me. The point I was going

:47:48.:47:51.

to make is that there are suggestions the British government

:47:52.:47:56.

might negotiate deals whereby specific industries, like the car

:47:57.:47:59.

industry, could sort of stay in the single market, even if Britain

:48:00.:48:03.

leaves, and my point about Nissan was I wondered if the SNP would say,

:48:04.:48:07.

if that should apply to industries, why not geographical areas like

:48:08.:48:16.

Scotland? It makes the case that the First Minister has been pressing and

:48:17.:48:20.

weighing the SNP at Westerners are having underlining. Whilst it is not

:48:21.:48:25.

simple, and we understand that it is not straightforward, it is possible

:48:26.:48:28.

to find different solutions. We know that already within the UK, there

:48:29.:48:32.

are different solutions and relationships with Europe, so take

:48:33.:48:35.

for example the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man. In the case of

:48:36.:48:39.

Denmark, look at how Greenland fits into the pictures. There are ways of

:48:40.:48:44.

having asymmetric relationships, but it depends on the UK Government.

:48:45.:48:47.

Let's go back to your first question. It is the UK Government

:48:48.:48:51.

that will have the key negotiating discussions with the EU whenever

:48:52.:48:55.

they trigger the article 50 procedure. It will depend on a UK

:48:56.:49:03.

Government to take the needs, interests, concerns and expectations

:49:04.:49:07.

of the Scottish Gottman and people, 62% voted to remain in the EU, to do

:49:08.:49:12.

what they have said previously to respect the fact that they say

:49:13.:49:15.

Scotland is an equal partner in the UK. They are prepared to find a

:49:16.:49:22.

bespoke arrangements for companies or four industries, then they should

:49:23.:49:26.

be prepared to do it for nations in the UK, like Scotland or Northern

:49:27.:49:31.

Ireland. You have said that, should there be a hard Brexit, that will be

:49:32.:49:36.

justification for a second independence referendum. Presumably,

:49:37.:49:41.

the contrary is the case, that should the British government take

:49:42.:49:44.

note of Scotland's concerns and those of some in England, and there

:49:45.:49:49.

should be some sort of soft Brexit or medium way between soft and hard

:49:50.:49:53.

Brexit, you will withdraw the proposal to hold a second

:49:54.:49:55.

referendum. If the United Kingdom delivers on

:49:56.:50:10.

the priorities that the Scottish Government is going to be setting

:50:11.:50:14.

out in the next week, that is going to be the focus of our continuing

:50:15.:50:17.

and renewed relationship with the European context. At the Scottish

:50:18.:50:20.

Government is satisfied, I don't see how they would pursue a further

:50:21.:50:23.

independence referendum. Given that all of the straws in the wind show

:50:24.:50:26.

that the UK Government has not taken seriously this far, is exactly why

:50:27.:50:29.

it is right and proper for the Scottish Government to begin

:50:30.:50:34.

consultations on an independence referendum, just in case the UK

:50:35.:50:37.

Government does not deliver on what is required. The premise of your

:50:38.:50:44.

question is correct. If they do deliver on the priorities the

:50:45.:50:47.

Scottish Government want, then we wouldn't need to go ahead with a

:50:48.:50:51.

referendum. But it is right and proper, given that we don't have

:50:52.:50:54.

those guarantees, to have all of those options on the table. This is

:50:55.:51:01.

important, because you are arguing for an alliance. That is against

:51:02.:51:06.

hard Brexit at Westminster. Conservative or Labour or Liberal

:51:07.:51:11.

Democrat MPs say we might ally with the SNP and work together to oppose

:51:12.:51:16.

it, but we are not going to do it if it is just another SNP data for

:51:17.:51:21.

independence. But you seem to be accepting that strips you get some

:51:22.:51:27.

of the stuff you want, independence is off the table? -- should you get?

:51:28.:51:39.

Yellow I am not going to second-guess all of that. In terms

:51:40.:51:43.

of the discussions with other members of the Westminster

:51:44.:51:46.

Parliament, I've not yet had any conversations where there is an F

:51:47.:51:51.

and but from others. There are moderate forces within the Labour

:51:52.:51:54.

Party and even some moderate moderate forces within the Labour

:51:55.:51:57.

conservatives for whom being taken out of the single market is

:51:58.:52:01.

something so problematic that not only do we want to have properly

:52:02.:52:05.

scrutinised it can Westminster, we need answers from the government. If

:52:06.:52:10.

what they are proposing is so damaging and not something that the

:52:11.:52:14.

government had a mandate for, then the SNP will be opposing that. You

:52:15.:52:18.

want to work with others in Parliament against hard Brexit.

:52:19.:52:24.

There has also been a lot of talk about a broader progressive alliance

:52:25.:52:28.

against the Conservatives. What is your view of that? I didn't hear

:52:29.:52:35.

again. My apologies. There has been much talk in the last few days about

:52:36.:52:40.

a broader alliance against the Tories. A Progressive Alliance at

:52:41.:52:45.

Westminster. Is that something you are in favour with? And are you

:52:46.:52:48.

getting anywhere in trying to create it? Forgive me, you dropped out

:52:49.:52:59.

again. But I did hear you talk about a Progressive Alliance. I will do my

:53:00.:53:02.

best to interpret what the rest must have been. There are

:53:03.:53:06.

parliamentarians across the House of Commons who are very fearful of the

:53:07.:53:10.

impact of a hard Brexit. What it means is being taken out of the

:53:11.:53:16.

single market, the biggest one in the world, and have barriers to UK

:53:17.:53:23.

exporters to that key markets. This must be a concern for all of us. And

:53:24.:53:27.

we were being given an impression by many people in the leave camp in the

:53:28.:53:32.

European referendum that we would have full access to the single

:53:33.:53:36.

market and we would even be able to remain. And that is why I think it

:53:37.:53:39.

is really important for all of us who want to make sure that we do not

:53:40.:53:44.

go through an even more damaging exit process that needs to be the

:53:45.:53:48.

case. That we work together. I cannot predict how that is going to

:53:49.:53:55.

develop. In the weeks and months ahead will have different potential

:53:56.:53:58.

stages where we will be working together. We will be holding the

:53:59.:54:06.

government to compound. And I have asked the Prime Minister question

:54:07.:54:09.

she has not been able to answer. There will be a Brexit committee set

:54:10.:54:14.

up. All of these circumstances, we will work together. We have to

:54:15.:54:19.

protect Scotland's interests. And I am respectful of the rest of the UK

:54:20.:54:22.

who wish to do the best for their part of the world, too. Thank you.

:54:23.:54:29.

My apology for the quality of the sound line and that it didn't match

:54:30.:54:31.

the scenery. Thank you. It might not have been

:54:32.:54:33.

exactly an olive branch, but the First Minister's appeal

:54:34.:54:36.

to Labour, Liberals and even moderate Tories to join the SNP

:54:37.:54:38.

in a coalition against a hard Brexit may still have taken

:54:39.:54:41.

some by surprise. It wasn't that long ago though

:54:42.:54:43.

that the Shadow Scottish Secretary, Dave Anderson, and former

:54:44.:54:45.

Shadow Defence Secretary, Clive Lewis, were making

:54:46.:54:47.

overtures to the SNP. And there've been other rumblings

:54:48.:54:51.

in Westminster that some form of loose or progressive alliance

:54:52.:54:54.

may be the way forward. Joining us from London is Scotland's

:54:55.:54:56.

only Labour MP, Ian Murray. Let's stick to the question of

:54:57.:55:08.

Brexit. Angus Robinson and the SNP Let's stick to the question of

:55:09.:55:16.

proposed an alliance with you and whoever is prepared to join them. --

:55:17.:55:22.

Angus Robertson. To get a soft Brexit. Is that something you are

:55:23.:55:27.

keen on? The First Minister is slightly behind the curve. This is

:55:28.:55:31.

what we have been doing already. Angus Robertson's own Brexit spoke

:55:32.:55:38.

person is from the SNP. Myself and Anna Seabury all ask the same

:55:39.:55:43.

question to the Secretary of State, David Davis about page 74 of the

:55:44.:55:48.

Conservative manifesto saying yes to the single market. We already have

:55:49.:55:52.

that broad alliance in Westminster already against a hard Brexit. We

:55:53.:55:56.

will be pushing hard on that to make sure that is what we get.

:55:57.:56:02.

will be pushing hard on that to make Robertson, he said pretty clearly

:56:03.:56:06.

there that should the Scottish Government get what it wants,

:56:07.:56:10.

basically what you want, staying single market from its negotiations

:56:11.:56:15.

with UK Government, that's the SNP would have no reason to call another

:56:16.:56:18.

independence referendum. He was pretty clear on that. That is,

:56:19.:56:23.

presumably, something you would welcome. Yes, but 40 or so said was

:56:24.:56:27.

the Scottish Government set out their criteria on what they would

:56:28.:56:31.

want at these negotiations. I can guess it will put something in there

:56:32.:56:35.

that is undeliverable in order to keep independence on the table. --

:56:36.:56:41.

he also said. Scotland being in the EU, which I agree with, is an

:56:42.:56:49.

intelligent argument. We need to put the other referendum out of the

:56:50.:56:51.

question. Rule it out and work for the other referendum out of the

:56:52.:56:54.

the best possible solution for Brexit across the United Kingdom.

:56:55.:56:58.

And make sure that if Scotland is open for business, let's take away

:56:59.:57:02.

the uncertainty of a second independence referendum and move

:57:03.:57:06.

forward together to get the very best out of this bad situation. What

:57:07.:57:09.

about this idea that Angus Robertson was talking about about a broader

:57:10.:57:14.

progressive allies against the Tories. That doesn't seem to be very

:57:15.:57:20.

popular with Labour on Scotland. -- in Scotland. But it does seem to

:57:21.:57:28.

have supporters amongst Jeremy Corbyn's back people. There already

:57:29.:57:34.

is. We have always made clear that when there are issues we agree with

:57:35.:57:37.

other parties on, we will come together and vote with them. And

:57:38.:57:43.

make the argument in the House of Commons chamber parliament on in the

:57:44.:57:47.

wider country. Where we disagree with parties, whether it is on our

:57:48.:57:51.

own side or opposite, we will disagree with them. Jeremy Hunt

:57:52.:57:55.

Kezia Dugdale have been clear that we cannot do a former progressive

:57:56.:58:02.

Alliance, rather than make United Kingdom on Scotland better. So you

:58:03.:58:12.

would rule out an electoral pact with the SNP? Yes. The irony is that

:58:13.:58:17.

it helps the Conservative Party. They are able to play their own

:58:18.:58:25.

agenda. That is what happened in 2015. It is likely to happen again.

:58:26.:58:30.

If you look at the finance secretary and what he said that they will put

:58:31.:58:39.

a judge -- budget together. We want fundamental differences. You rule

:58:40.:58:42.

out an electoral alliance with the SNP. Would you rule out a government

:58:43.:58:47.

with them? After the next election, if other forces have a majority,

:58:48.:58:52.

would you rule out bringing the SNP into some sort of coalition? We have

:58:53.:58:56.

discussed this at great length on your show for a number of times. We

:58:57.:59:02.

are now talking about a General Election in 2020. All those issues

:59:03.:59:05.

that are completely irrelevant at this point. What we have been

:59:06.:59:07.

clearer than what we will this point. What we have been

:59:08.:59:10.

been clear on is that when political parties agree, we will work with

:59:11.:59:14.

them enthusiastically. Where we disagree, we will oppose them and

:59:15.:59:18.

make sure it is Labour values and what the Labour Party wants to do.

:59:19.:59:22.

One example is that we will be amending the Scottish budget to make

:59:23.:59:27.

sure that it can raise the resources in Scotland to invest in public

:59:28.:59:30.

services. The SNP are fighting that. They do not want to go forward with

:59:31.:59:35.

investing in public services. Therefore, they are only doing

:59:36.:59:40.

something that is marginally different of the Tories. We cannot

:59:41.:59:44.

work with the SNP on that basis. What is extremely relevant right now

:59:45.:59:49.

to the current electoral cycle is whether a Scottish MP should be

:59:50.:59:52.

Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland. Are you going...? It is a

:59:53.:00:00.

very simple answer. I have not been asked. And, therefore, I will

:00:01.:00:06.

continue to fight Scotland's corner from the backbenches. Out of the

:00:07.:00:10.

shackles of the Shadow Cabinet, I can be of the select committee. But

:00:11.:00:17.

if he asks you, will you rejoin? He has not. And I have been very clear

:00:18.:00:22.

to Jeremy that I would rejoin if he brought back the shadow cabinet

:00:23.:00:30.

elections. Are you saying that as a condition of rejoining? It has been

:00:31.:00:33.

good enough for people like Kia condition of rejoining? It has been

:00:34.:00:40.

Starmer. Jeremy Corbyn just won a victory. A second time in a year. If

:00:41.:00:45.

that is good enough for people like him, wires and a governor for you? I

:00:46.:00:51.

have been perfectly clear that I have backed him. We will all unite

:00:52.:00:55.

and make sure we have an effective opposition. It is a huge issue. --

:00:56.:00:59.

and make sure we have an effective why isn't it good enough for you? It

:01:00.:01:03.

was right that he recognised that and went back into the Shadow

:01:04.:01:07.

Cabinet. I have been clear that if he grabs the olive branch for the

:01:08.:01:13.

Labour Party, brings back Shadow Cabinet elections... He said -- you

:01:14.:01:22.

said he burned it. Therefore, we cannot have that conversation as I

:01:23.:01:25.

resigned. He is a principled cannot have that conversation as I

:01:26.:01:30.

politician. I have my own and I'm enjoying myself on the backbenches.

:01:31.:01:36.

I have been able to press the Prime Minister as Secretary of State. And

:01:37.:01:42.

this week I am trying to set up a cross-party group on the sectorial

:01:43.:01:46.

interests of Brexit. I can be just as effective. You said that you

:01:47.:01:51.

backed Jeremy Corbyn and since he was elected again. But, sorry,

:01:52.:01:55.

saying the EU will not consider joining his Shadow Cabinet, unless

:01:56.:02:02.

he implements elections, which he is clearly against, that is not

:02:03.:02:07.

supporting him. That is surely just petulantly refusing to recognise a

:02:08.:02:12.

huge vote for your party has just had? Not at all. We can be united as

:02:13.:02:18.

a party. We will continue to be. I will say nothing to undermine Jeremy

:02:19.:02:23.

Corbyn's leadership. Dave Anderson, you spoke to him, he is perfectly

:02:24.:02:27.

capable of being surgery Secretary of State for Scotland. I can be on

:02:28.:02:33.

the select committee. -- Shadow Secretary. I can ask loads of

:02:34.:02:39.

questions. I can push the government on what is a huge issue. I can do

:02:40.:02:44.

all that. I cannot do it if I'm sitting in the Shadow Cabinet. I

:02:45.:02:47.

will be restricted. What you have just said might be perfectly

:02:48.:02:51.

reasonable, where you any old Labour MP. You are not. You are only label

:02:52.:03:00.

MP -- Labour MP in Scotland. Supporters right across Scotland

:03:01.:03:05.

surely have the right to expect that the only Labour MP in Scotland will

:03:06.:03:09.

act as the Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland? You are letting all of

:03:10.:03:14.

them down. Not just your own constituents. How possibly can I be

:03:15.:03:17.

letting anyone down when I haven't been asked to serve? You could

:03:18.:03:24.

offer? Yes, that you have just put conditions on it which Jeremy Corbyn

:03:25.:03:28.

cannot accept. There is a whole list of conditions. I do not think people

:03:29.:03:33.

in my constituency and across Scotland are worried about being in

:03:34.:03:39.

the Shadow Cabinet. They want politicians to be arguing the case

:03:40.:03:43.

for Scotland on issues like Brexit. Are you seriously saying...? Are you

:03:44.:03:50.

seriously saying it does not matter whether or not Scottish -- a

:03:51.:04:00.

Scottish MP is the Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland? No. I able to

:04:01.:04:06.

sit on the select committee which is doing great work under the

:04:07.:04:11.

leadership of peat wisher. I can set up cross-party groups. I could not

:04:12.:04:19.

do that if I was in the cabinet. We are making strong arguments and I am

:04:20.:04:24.

making sure of that. I am the only politician in Scotland that is

:04:25.:04:26.

currently arguing that of the moment. And the SNP with the

:04:27.:04:36.

incoherent argument that the EU is good and the UK is bad. Do you think

:04:37.:04:45.

Jeremy Corbyn can lead Labour into the next General Election? Do you

:04:46.:04:47.

Jeremy Corbyn can lead Labour into think he can win it? I'm sorry. I

:04:48.:04:54.

didn't catch the question. Well, everyone has the opportunity to win.

:04:55.:04:59.

I know he had the opportunity. Do you think you can win it? It is

:05:00.:05:03.

going to be difficult unless he has a policy platform that means he can

:05:04.:05:08.

give the country hope in the Prime Minister of this country. Is that a

:05:09.:05:15.

roundabout way of saying no? No. I don't think so. It is going to be

:05:16.:05:20.

difficult for him. The next election will be in 2020. Unless Theresa May

:05:21.:05:27.

brings forward something different. Three and a half years to lay out

:05:28.:05:31.

that vision. Deal with globalisation and make sure working people are

:05:32.:05:34.

looked after and progressing in the workplace. By making sure the next

:05:35.:05:39.

generation is progressing. It takes time to build up a policy platform

:05:40.:05:43.

that does that. We are in a good place of Brexit. You have seen the

:05:44.:05:44.

Labour Party use their entire day of place of Brexit. You have seen the

:05:45.:05:50.

opposition time to talk about it on Wednesday. We won the argument,

:05:51.:05:54.

because we did not have to push this to a vote. We have worked across the

:05:55.:06:00.

board to put forward those arguments. These are the things that

:06:01.:06:03.

are important to people. And these other things we will be working hard

:06:04.:06:07.

on to push in Parliament. That is what is important.

:06:08.:06:10.

It's time to look back at the events of the past week and see what's

:06:11.:06:14.

I'm joined now by the journalist Lynsey Bews and the SNP's former

:06:15.:06:23.

What did you make... I was slightly surprised that Angus Robertson was

:06:24.:06:37.

so open in saying if we got what we want, we wouldn't have a second

:06:38.:06:40.

independence referendum. Do you think it is more spin? I think he

:06:41.:06:45.

made a fit of an admission that actually, yes, the second

:06:46.:06:48.

independence referendum would really be taken off the table if the wishes

:06:49.:06:53.

of the Scottish Government are met. The trouble is, what the Scottish

:06:54.:06:57.

pigment is asking for is quite a long wish list, really. They are

:06:58.:07:00.

looking for remaining in the single market, they are looking for more

:07:01.:07:04.

powers for Scottish Parliament, control over immigration in

:07:05.:07:09.

Scotland, and the ability to make these international trade deals

:07:10.:07:13.

themselves. It is whether or not you can see the UK Government actually

:07:14.:07:16.

saying, OK, we will deliver that for you, and whether or not the rest of

:07:17.:07:19.

the EU agrees with that proposal. It you, and whether or not the rest of

:07:20.:07:24.

is a tricky one this because it is fungible in both directions because

:07:25.:07:28.

it will always be possible unless it is an absolutely hard exit, for

:07:29.:07:31.

Theresa May to say look, the SNP have been unreasonable, I did

:07:32.:07:35.

conceive this, I did listen, and on the other side it will be possible

:07:36.:07:38.

for the Scottish Government to say, they might have conceded this, but

:07:39.:07:41.

they didn't concede that, that, and that. Theresa May will never concede

:07:42.:07:48.

everything that was Scottish Government asked for. She only has

:07:49.:07:52.

to concede a bit for Nicola Sturgeon's opponents to say, come

:07:53.:07:56.

off it, this was all a ruse for a second referendum. She has conceded

:07:57.:08:00.

some. And if she doesn't constitute all, Nicola can say the opposite. My

:08:01.:08:05.

guess would be an independence referendum at some point in the

:08:06.:08:09.

future. When do you think they would have to hold that? I think Nicola

:08:10.:08:19.

Sturgeon herself said on this programme it would have to be... I

:08:20.:08:22.

might be wrong, but my recollection is it would have to be before the

:08:23.:08:28.

end of the formal negotiations which would be March 2019? You can say any

:08:29.:08:33.

time from March next year to March 20 19. Any time in that timescale.

:08:34.:08:39.

If you want a specific date, you are as well looking a figure out of the

:08:40.:08:43.

air. I don't think anyone knows, I don't think Nicola herself as

:08:44.:08:46.

probably decided yet. She won't until she says democracies which way

:08:47.:08:52.

the wind is blowing. Obviously, they would need the permission of the

:08:53.:08:55.

British government to have another referendum. Again, I think I'm right

:08:56.:09:02.

in saying that both Ruth Davidson and David Mandel has said on this

:09:03.:09:06.

programme over the past couple of months that while they didn't want

:09:07.:09:08.

another independence referendum, they thought the UK Government

:09:09.:09:12.

should not stand in the way of it. I don't know if you saw David on

:09:13.:09:17.

Andrew Neil earlier, he was much more equitable, wasn't he? It is a

:09:18.:09:23.

tricky one because I think, politically, it would be very

:09:24.:09:26.

difficult to deny a second independence referendum if the SNP

:09:27.:09:30.

can point to their manifesto and say, well, the circumstances have

:09:31.:09:34.

changed. The circumstances set out for a second referendum that the EU

:09:35.:09:38.

was part of that. Politically, it would be very difficult to say they

:09:39.:09:41.

wouldn't get one. The British governance could say, hang on, you

:09:42.:09:45.

are having a referendum before we have finalised a deal. We might

:09:46.:09:51.

allow you to have won after it is final, but it is not reasonable to

:09:52.:09:58.

have one before. That is where the timing becomes tricky. At what point

:09:59.:10:03.

in the two-year period do we have the amount of certainty to know

:10:04.:10:07.

exactly what the Brexit deal, which is going forward, is going to look

:10:08.:10:11.

like. All negotiations are not going to have been completed. I think

:10:12.:10:15.

Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP will probably want to have the second

:10:16.:10:18.

independence referendum within that two-year period probably towards the

:10:19.:10:23.

end of the two-year period if possible to try to take away some of

:10:24.:10:25.

the difficulties of Scotland's membership of the EU if the UK and

:10:26.:10:32.

Scotland as part of it has gone outside the EU. Everything is

:10:33.:10:36.

unclear. There seems to be a bandwagon growing, not just from the

:10:37.:10:40.

SNP, although they are part of it, in Parliament for MPs saying, hang

:10:41.:10:44.

on, we've got to have some sort of say in what kind of Brexit deal

:10:45.:10:50.

there is. So many people, especially south of the border, voted because

:10:51.:10:58.

of the immigration issue. Now, they also probably... Boris Johnson told

:10:59.:11:02.

them leaving the EU did not mean leaving the single market. Well, you

:11:03.:11:07.

can't have both. If you are in the single market, you have freedom of

:11:08.:11:10.

movement. You can't have one without the other. If we are in the single

:11:11.:11:14.

market, you have freedom of movement, which is the reason that

:11:15.:11:19.

many people voted Brexit. Again, going back to David Mandel, he can

:11:20.:11:26.

say Westminster will not allow another referendum... He doesn't say

:11:27.:11:31.

that. It was unlikely. He hinted very strongly that they would oppose

:11:32.:11:34.

it. I think it is politically unacceptable. This issue of MPs

:11:35.:11:42.

having a say, again, there have been various interviews this morning. The

:11:43.:11:45.

formulations are always, MPs will be involved, we've already had debates.

:11:46.:11:50.

That is not what people like Nick Clegg and Nicola Sturgeon said this

:11:51.:11:54.

morning in interview, she would agree with the demand that MPs be

:11:55.:11:59.

given SA on article 50, but she would presumably agree that she

:12:00.:12:02.

would be given a say on what kind of Brexit there would be. It is unclear

:12:03.:12:05.

that will ever happen. Rio it is all very well to have a debate in

:12:06.:12:11.

Parliament about what MPs think, but if there is no definitive say at the

:12:12.:12:14.

end of that for MPs, it really doesn't make a difference as to what

:12:15.:12:17.

the UK Government do. The triggering of Article 50, should we have a say?

:12:18.:12:22.

The Brexit deal at the end, should they have a say over that? It is

:12:23.:12:27.

more likely they will get a say of the Brexit deal at the end of it

:12:28.:12:31.

rather than the triggering of article 50, but it is unlikely they

:12:32.:12:36.

will get a say. Let's say there is a hard Brexit, and that is negotiated

:12:37.:12:40.

by the British government. If the British government then comes back

:12:41.:12:43.

to Parliament and says, right, you can vote on this, and Parliament, as

:12:44.:12:49.

is quite possible, voted against that, what does that mean? Are they

:12:50.:12:56.

saying go away for another two years and negotiate? Renegotiate, yes.

:12:57.:13:00.

Interestingly, when the Scottish MEPs were discussing what would

:13:01.:13:03.

happen in Europe regarding this, they said the MEPs would be asked to

:13:04.:13:07.

vote on it and it could be likely that they would reject the deal put

:13:08.:13:11.

forward to the European Parliament, which would mean that they would

:13:12.:13:15.

have to go away and look at new terms around a new deal, so maybe

:13:16.:13:18.

something like that would happen if the UK Parliament got a vote, but it

:13:19.:13:22.

looks unlikely that they will. If you are still advising them, this

:13:23.:13:27.

SNP idea of alliance in Parliament, would you go for that? Informally,

:13:28.:13:33.

yes. No formal alliances. I cannot imagine a circumstance where Labour

:13:34.:13:37.

would go into a formal alliance with the SNP. You mentioned earlier the

:13:38.:13:43.

possibility of the SNP joining Labour in a future UK Government. I

:13:44.:13:48.

cannot imagine that for a moment. Your ideas and Ian Murray's are very

:13:49.:13:50.

similar. I'll be back at the

:13:51.:13:51.

same time next week.

:13:52.:13:56.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer are joined by secretary of state for Scotland David Mundell MP and Conservative MPs Adam Afriyie and Kwasi Kwarteng. Panellists include Julia Hartley-Brewer, Tom Newton Dunn and Steve Richards.


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