18/05/2014 Sunday Politics South East


18/05/2014

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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

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election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

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on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

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on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

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are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

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difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

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an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

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And here: as voters go to the polls campaign trail, he has been

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across the region this Thursday, we across the region this Thursday, we

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elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's

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32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got

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all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it

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is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local

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elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are

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the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some

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say that these European and local elections will not be much of a

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pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political

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commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is

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at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European

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Parliament elections. These local results should be known

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by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the

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European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let

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it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced

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until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member

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states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this

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morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,

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and the general election is still wide open - we really are in

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uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,

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because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst

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those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times

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showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know

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that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the

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major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP

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success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has

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been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party

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is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next

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week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders

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who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick

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Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or

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four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he

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should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral

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force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a

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couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one

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who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr

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Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.

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The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his

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own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the

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Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly

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at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England

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has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England

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now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what

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the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,

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it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections

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began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they

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finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish

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runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on

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something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,

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France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first

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past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a

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situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the

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largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of

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seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two

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parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's

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speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP

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claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on

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Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become

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a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a

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grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are

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going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this

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earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we

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will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election

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manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and

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putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring

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Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of

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power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a

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referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up

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party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies

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created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them

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this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more

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robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other

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three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got

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nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this

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week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or

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Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on

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all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been

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involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am

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not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably

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needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any

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worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we

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do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they

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know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to

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far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a

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one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the

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headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a

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huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople

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across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably

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the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic

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leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get

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our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many

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more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We

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are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by

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Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between

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television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how

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much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like

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the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in

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conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a

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joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote

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UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party

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line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...

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On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is

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obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a

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manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have

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put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government

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level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,

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local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

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school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

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interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

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party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

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People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

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party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

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to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

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road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

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map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

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Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

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there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

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is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

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detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

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We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

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position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

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deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

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would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

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back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

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agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

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European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

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involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

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not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

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concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it

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sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is

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better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds

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like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all

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manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our

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sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if

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a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am

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surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in

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next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different

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from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they

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being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being

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trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I

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do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian

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approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were

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learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British

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economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out

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how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24

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hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours

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in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make

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up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in

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Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local

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and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at

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eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and

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producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm

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welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.

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One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got

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Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and

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that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but

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it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members

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for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top

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Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in

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traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in

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time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to

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Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not

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even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We

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will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the

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Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the

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Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses

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upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a

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referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.

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I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about

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elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at

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our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in

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Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from

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chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

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boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

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hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft

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their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who

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live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed

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Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls

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lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who

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is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

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flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

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place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

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as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said

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the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If

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he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not

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forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40

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minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for

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something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home

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for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy

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elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack

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Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens

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used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went

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wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs

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and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these

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elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party

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calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making

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poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have

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made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the

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left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative

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vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I

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met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane

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exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond

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issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned

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about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the

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Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price

:19:34.:19:40.

bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the

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same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline

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greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs

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and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our

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economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has

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sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one

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planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by

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renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on

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days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It

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is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a

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smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to

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supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to

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work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and

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we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is

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owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the

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big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French

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nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,

:21:25.:21:31.

going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government

:21:32.:21:34.

proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two

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plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.

:21:42.:21:45.

We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more

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seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined

:21:50.:21:56.

strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's

:21:57.:22:01.

throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise

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council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by

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other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at

:22:11.:22:17.

the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor

:22:18.:22:22.

numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in

:22:23.:22:29.

Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are

:22:30.:22:33.

the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of

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Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a

:22:39.:22:46.

debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have

:22:47.:22:50.

that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city

:22:51.:22:56.

should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be

:22:57.:23:00.

brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride

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in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the

:23:09.:23:13.

people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in

:23:14.:23:21.

Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do

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most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.

:23:27.:23:34.

Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,

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the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a

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European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and

:24:19.:24:23.

only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

:24:24.:24:28.

the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP

:24:29.:24:34.

party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions

:24:35.:24:39.

usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on

:24:40.:24:43.

to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it

:24:44.:24:50.

suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well

:24:51.:24:56.

either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation

:24:57.:25:00.

has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will

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not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to

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hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come

:25:11.:25:15.

out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we

:25:16.:25:19.

want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child

:25:20.:25:25.

tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but

:25:26.:25:31.

Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to

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halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to

:25:39.:25:42.

the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done

:25:43.:25:46.

to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in

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the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be

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lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never

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knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support

:26:11.:26:13.

because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit

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like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now

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we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make

:26:30.:26:34.

together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that

:26:35.:26:39.

only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been

:26:40.:26:49.

shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out

:26:50.:26:54.

of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the

:26:55.:27:04.

jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives

:27:05.:27:08.

comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't

:27:09.:27:13.

really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been

:27:14.:27:18.

there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite

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being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on

:27:24.:27:27.

Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we

:27:28.:27:31.

wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal

:27:32.:27:36.

Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.

:27:37.:27:41.

But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have

:27:42.:27:50.

taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We

:27:51.:27:56.

are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our

:27:57.:28:01.

relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why

:28:02.:28:11.

has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your

:28:12.:28:13.

own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we

:28:14.:28:20.

have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will

:28:21.:28:25.

decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is

:28:26.:28:30.

that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon

:28:31.:28:38.

and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband

:28:39.:28:47.

said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy

:28:48.:28:57.

prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower

:28:58.:29:05.

than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general

:29:06.:29:09.

election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this

:29:10.:29:14.

question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David

:29:15.:29:18.

Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in

:29:19.:29:23.

the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties

:29:24.:29:28.

that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who

:29:29.:29:34.

say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has

:29:35.:29:39.

given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing

:29:40.:29:44.

something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader

:29:45.:29:49.

bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of

:29:50.:29:59.

the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who

:30:00.:30:03.

think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak

:30:04.:30:08.

to people about it, people understand that we are better in

:30:09.:30:12.

them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs

:30:13.:30:16.

Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have

:30:17.:30:20.

battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to

:30:21.:30:25.

take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been

:30:26.:30:29.

delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.

:30:30.:30:36.

-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,

:30:37.:30:41.

people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's

:30:42.:30:46.

antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable

:30:47.:30:50.

housing they need. We as a government have delivered more

:30:51.:30:54.

affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties

:30:55.:30:58.

earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out

:30:59.:31:09.

that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in

:31:10.:31:16.

2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly

:31:17.:31:19.

half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher

:31:20.:31:25.

or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions

:31:26.:31:30.

of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I

:31:31.:31:38.

would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the

:31:39.:31:42.

deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now

:31:43.:31:46.

have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people

:31:47.:31:51.

employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say

:31:52.:31:54.

that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We

:31:55.:31:59.

need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.

:32:00.:32:02.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are

:32:03.:32:07.

the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any

:32:08.:32:15.

change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think

:32:16.:32:21.

like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree

:32:22.:32:24.

with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply

:32:25.:32:30.

would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the

:32:31.:32:34.

workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now

:32:35.:32:39.

privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the

:32:40.:32:44.

coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level

:32:45.:32:47.

since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got

:32:48.:32:52.

a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies

:32:53.:32:55.

which directly address the problems which people face. I think the

:32:56.:33:01.

public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for

:33:02.:33:05.

the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We

:33:06.:33:10.

are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next

:33:11.:33:13.

time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the

:33:14.:33:17.

relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.

:33:18.:33:24.

We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.

:33:25.:33:31.

We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying

:33:32.:33:37.

in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall

:33:38.:33:40.

transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for

:33:41.:33:49.

this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to

:33:50.:33:55.

leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but

:33:56.:34:00.

we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the

:34:01.:34:04.

future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built

:34:05.:34:11.

our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want

:34:12.:34:15.

artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out

:34:16.:34:20.

of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being

:34:21.:34:24.

positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep

:34:25.:34:27.

absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said

:34:28.:34:32.

that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British

:34:33.:34:35.

withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a

:34:36.:34:41.

successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am

:34:42.:34:52.

very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with

:34:53.:34:58.

confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he

:34:59.:35:04.

said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the

:35:05.:35:07.

party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you

:35:08.:35:12.

agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and

:35:13.:35:15.

then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a

:35:16.:35:21.

line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with

:35:22.:35:24.

Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay

:35:25.:35:29.

in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am

:35:30.:35:33.

not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every

:35:34.:35:37.

question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!

:35:38.:35:42.

I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at

:35:43.:35:46.

our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,

:35:47.:35:54.

what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems

:35:55.:35:59.

towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at

:36:00.:36:03.

sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,

:36:04.:36:07.

we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the

:36:08.:36:13.

Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.

:36:14.:36:18.

It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of

:36:19.:36:22.

powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we

:36:23.:36:27.

believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for

:36:28.:36:33.

economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our

:36:34.:36:40.

relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday

:36:41.:36:43.

will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything

:36:44.:36:50.

you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I

:36:51.:36:56.

am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the

:36:57.:37:03.

dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that

:37:04.:37:06.

Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth

:37:07.:37:09.

is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of

:37:10.:37:16.

a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one

:37:17.:37:27.

more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection

:37:28.:37:32.

with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should

:37:33.:37:36.

vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just

:37:37.:37:39.

that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot

:37:40.:37:43.

more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at

:37:44.:37:46.

Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not

:37:47.:37:50.

been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that

:37:51.:37:56.

is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible

:37:57.:37:59.

of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of

:38:00.:38:02.

the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.

:38:03.:38:09.

We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -

:38:10.:38:16.

he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday

:38:17.:38:21.

Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for

:38:22.:38:24.

Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up Hello. This is the Sunday Politics

:38:25.:38:44.

in the south`east. Coming up later, Nick wants as in, it does to, Nigel

:38:45.:38:49.

says we should definitely leave and David wants a referendum. We are

:38:50.:38:55.

discussing the pros and cons of our membership of the European Union.

:38:56.:39:00.

This is the third in our series of special election programmes. This

:39:01.:39:06.

week we are turning our attention to the Conservatives and UKIP and

:39:07.:39:11.

asking how they both may fear. Richard Haass worse `` Ashworth and

:39:12.:39:20.

Janice Atkinson are with me. You have just spent weeks campaigning,

:39:21.:39:28.

how has it been? What is the level of interest from the public?

:39:29.:39:35.

Politicians started the campaign in January this year. The level of

:39:36.:39:40.

public awareness has grown markedly over the last few weeks. There are

:39:41.:39:46.

expectations and awareness. People are talking about it. Is the

:39:47.:39:54.

attention that Nigel Farage has been getting the link people in? Issues

:39:55.:40:01.

like the referendum, the Greens and Liberal Democrats and all others are

:40:02.:40:04.

raising. Everybody has worked on this campaign. We are not expecting

:40:05.:40:14.

a huge turnout, 37% is the best according to the polls. Do people

:40:15.:40:21.

really care about Europe? I think this election is different to

:40:22.:40:26.

others, people really do care. On the streets campaigning we have

:40:27.:40:33.

about 50% interest. This week 90% of the people, very few are not

:40:34.:40:38.

actually voting. We have driven the debate on this. Do you think we will

:40:39.:40:50.

get more than 37%? I think so. The usual turnout is usually

:40:51.:40:55.

considerably lower than that. It is better than local elections very

:40:56.:41:00.

often. It is way better than the American mid`term elections. It will

:41:01.:41:08.

be interesting to see next week. Currently the Conservatives have the

:41:09.:41:15.

most MEPs in this region. If Nigel Farage is correct in his opinion

:41:16.:41:21.

that his party will top the poll, it could be that everything is about to

:41:22.:41:29.

change. Bygone Folkestone with smart shopping streets and plush hotels.

:41:30.:41:34.

The bustling resort and gateway to Europe. But it has been a town in

:41:35.:41:44.

decline. A slow slide that began after the war. One thing that has

:41:45.:41:50.

not changed is who represents this area in Westminster. We have had a

:41:51.:41:57.

Conservative MP for decades but no UKIP are threatening a political

:41:58.:42:04.

earthquake. This time could be at the epicentre of political change.

:42:05.:42:11.

Good Thursday's local and European elections see UKIP deliver a hammer

:42:12.:42:17.

blow to the Tory heartland in the south`east? The Conservative Party

:42:18.:42:22.

currently has five MEPs and controls all but one of the six local

:42:23.:42:27.

councils going to the polls. UKIP does not hold any of the council but

:42:28.:42:35.

does have one MEP, Nigel Farage, they are currently the official

:42:36.:42:38.

opposition on Kent County Council. UKIP says the Conservatives are

:42:39.:42:47.

losing their grip on the Southeast. People are fed up with weakness and

:42:48.:42:51.

false promises. They are listening to us, they like what they hear. Our

:42:52.:42:58.

views are very much in line with the years. I know people are frustrated

:42:59.:43:06.

by their politicians. The Conservatives say a stable economy

:43:07.:43:15.

is key to success. All voters are interested in the success of the

:43:16.:43:22.

economic recovery. UKIP to make breakthroughs in the county

:43:23.:43:24.

elections last time but now they have councillors who will be judged

:43:25.:43:40.

on their record. The Lib Dems are stressing the importance of

:43:41.:43:45.

Thursday's vote. If people play with fire by voting for UKIP it could do

:43:46.:43:50.

immense damage to Britain for quite a long time. People should cast

:43:51.:43:57.

their votes tearfully. There are bishops plans for redevelopment in

:43:58.:44:02.

Folkestone, transforming the front, creating jobs and boosting the

:44:03.:44:08.

economy. Some of the coastal towns are turning their backs on Tories. I

:44:09.:44:15.

am not thrilled with this. UKIP are you in this part of England. There

:44:16.:44:23.

was a big change a year ago. There was only one conservative left, for

:44:24.:44:30.

went to UKIP and along the coast from here there was a green beacon

:44:31.:44:37.

of sanity where I got elected. One academic says British politics could

:44:38.:44:43.

be about to undergo its biggest change since the Second World War.

:44:44.:44:50.

UKIP could transform from a small party to something that looks much

:44:51.:44:55.

rigour and could become the biggest third. It is an interesting

:44:56.:45:07.

election. `` looks much bigger. Labour maintains its economic

:45:08.:45:10.

fortunes could be about to change. Could there be a political story

:45:11.:45:22.

being played out? A Green councillor was also saying that people are

:45:23.:45:29.

angry with your lot and that is why they are turning to UKIP. We will

:45:30.:45:36.

stand on our record. There is growth in the economy, jobs and business.

:45:37.:45:42.

That cannot be bad. In Europe we stand on our record, we have cut the

:45:43.:45:47.

budget, redirected spending on the budget and protected British

:45:48.:45:52.

taxpayers from having to bail out the Eurozone. It has been a very

:45:53.:45:59.

difficult time. Things are tough. We have gone through the deepest

:46:00.:46:05.

recession since the 1930s. But actually, Judge us on our record,

:46:06.:46:11.

who has put the economy right? Look at the economy of Europe for the

:46:12.:46:14.

first time in history? That was ours. You could lose your seat next

:46:15.:46:23.

week, do you think that message is really getting through to people? In

:46:24.:46:29.

elections, we politicians stand on our record of what we have achieved

:46:30.:46:35.

in the past. We promised the public what we will do for them in the

:46:36.:46:39.

future. You are putting us up against the party which has no

:46:40.:46:43.

achievements in the past and no plans for the future. The

:46:44.:46:52.

Conservatives appear to be making a bit of a comeback in the last couple

:46:53.:46:57.

of weeks but you are still neck and neck and it does look likely Nigel

:46:58.:47:04.

Farage will take significant gains. That is for the electorate to

:47:05.:47:08.

determine and we have another week to go. How much damage it your tent

:47:09.:47:18.

youth leader do your party? She said you deliberately attract the racist

:47:19.:47:25.

vote. The silly girl likes the limelight. She likes publicity and

:47:26.:47:33.

going on the leaflets. She has never delivered a leaflet for me in Kent.

:47:34.:47:39.

She has never campaigned. Doesn't this show you are attracting the

:47:40.:47:46.

wrong people who will let you down? We have got a tiny minority. We have

:47:47.:47:53.

2000 councillors across the country and there is a tiny minority in the

:47:54.:48:01.

spotlight. We do not have the resources. We are the only people

:48:02.:48:04.

who do not allow the BNP to stand with us. There are ex`BNP

:48:05.:48:13.

councillors serving Labour. We do not allow those people to join us, I

:48:14.:48:20.

personally sacked to people who I find out about. There was the lot of

:48:21.:48:28.

attention, not much of it positive, you said there were no go areas in

:48:29.:48:34.

Kent because of eastern European gangs. It was said that it is

:48:35.:48:39.

shocking, jumping on the bandwagon. It was said you should be sacked

:48:40.:48:45.

because those kinds of words are inflammatory. It is the only way

:48:46.:48:49.

these people can get publicity. The Lib Dems will be toast at this

:48:50.:48:55.

election. If you go down to Folkestone East and areas in

:48:56.:49:00.

Gravesend, there are no go areas. I have spoken to the police about it

:49:01.:49:06.

and told them my concerns. You saw what happened one week ago when we

:49:07.:49:12.

had the raids on the Slovak Roma. When the immigration figures came

:49:13.:49:16.

out this week they said it has gone backwards. This week I was told by

:49:17.:49:21.

the border agency there are ten to 12 coachloads coming through each

:49:22.:49:25.

day with the road of children in there. The children's surnames do

:49:26.:49:33.

not match up with the adults. I am concerned about people trafficking.

:49:34.:49:39.

Those are the parts where her party is picking up a lot of support. Is

:49:40.:49:45.

she not making a point that is resounding with the electorate?

:49:46.:49:50.

There is something they play unattractive about appealing to this

:49:51.:49:56.

racist sentiment. It is not racist, I take exception to that. You stand

:49:57.:50:02.

in the middle of Maidstone and you do not see a coloured face. You

:50:03.:50:09.

cannot all the electorate out their racist. That is what you are doing

:50:10.:50:16.

by calling us racist. Nigel Farage is seen as very popular. You become

:50:17.:50:22.

distanced from them. Isn't that a problem for all the parties? The

:50:23.:50:28.

whole issue is to connect with the public. It is always perceived that

:50:29.:50:34.

Europe is over there, out of touch and unresponsive to public demand. I

:50:35.:50:40.

think that is a shame. We need to find new ways of connecting with the

:50:41.:50:44.

public. Whether in the European Union or out of it completely it is

:50:45.:50:49.

still immensely important to a country like the UK. You are running

:50:50.:50:55.

out of time, you only have a few days to go. Yes, it is a shame. You

:50:56.:51:03.

said turnout would be law. It is an important election with important

:51:04.:51:05.

issues and people should come out and vote. `` low. Many candidates

:51:06.:51:16.

standing, including Janice, don't think the UK should belong to the

:51:17.:51:24.

EU. Here is James Fitzgerald with a round`up of the positions. Dave

:51:25.:51:33.

wants in but says you will be given a vote on whether we will stay or

:51:34.:51:38.

both. He wants to be negotiate membership over issues like

:51:39.:51:43.

immigration. Nigel is firmly out. He says the EU is undemocratic,

:51:44.:51:52.

expensive and bossy. Nick is a definite in. He said the EU is good

:51:53.:51:58.

for British jobs, trade and crime`fighting. It is pretty happy

:51:59.:52:04.

being in so long as the UK does not lose any powers. He says the EU is

:52:05.:52:13.

economically worthwhile. The Green party says yes to a reformed

:52:14.:52:20.

European Union, moving away from trade and competition but towards

:52:21.:52:24.

environmental sustainability. The want you to vote on it. We are

:52:25.:52:32.

joined for this discussion by an MEP in the south`east. Will it be good

:52:33.:52:36.

or bad for this region if we left the EU? It would be disastrous for

:52:37.:52:45.

the university sector, the science sector, small businesses, the

:52:46.:52:51.

economy as a whole and for jobs and opportunities. We need to understand

:52:52.:52:57.

that Europe is a two`way street. British people have the freedom to

:52:58.:53:03.

work and settle anywhere they want in Europe. People have the

:53:04.:53:06.

opportunity to take jobs, whether summer jobs or permanent jobs, any

:53:07.:53:13.

where in the European Union. It is a denial of opportunity to even

:53:14.:53:16.

suggest we should leave the European Union. Argue in agreement? Yes, I

:53:17.:53:28.

am. Europe is very important to Britain and the south`east.

:53:29.:53:33.

Universities, travel sector, industry, all are extremely

:53:34.:53:39.

important and to this region. But it has got to change. That is the

:53:40.:53:45.

message we are giving. That matters to the United Kingdom even if we

:53:46.:53:49.

were not members of the European Union well over 50% of our experts

:53:50.:53:55.

`` exports go there. That is a lot of jobs. The Chief Executive of the

:53:56.:54:02.

British Airways said this week you have got to be in it to win it. And

:54:03.:54:12.

you want out, why? Only 5% of our businesses export to Europe anyway.

:54:13.:54:19.

100% of our businesses are subject to really damaging laws. It is all

:54:20.:54:28.

to do with elliptical union with the others. It is trade that we need and

:54:29.:54:34.

prior to Lisbon we can have our free trade agreements. There are 2.2

:54:35.:54:40.

billion Commonwealth countries out there. We can have a free`trade

:54:41.:54:45.

agreement with China. One trade commissioner across the EU, or she

:54:46.:54:51.

has to represent 28 states, one size does not fit all. Research shows

:54:52.:54:56.

that the general public want to stay in, more than the past two years and

:54:57.:55:04.

they are worried that Europe is not a big issue for them, it is not in

:55:05.:55:12.

the top ten. It is always about the economy, the economy can grow if we

:55:13.:55:18.

leave the EU. We can have free trade agreements with the rest of the

:55:19.:55:25.

world. Yes, we want to trade with our European art is but we will

:55:26.:55:29.

invoke Article 50 in the Lisbon Treaty and those free trade

:55:30.:55:32.

agreements we had prior to that will still be in situ. A lot of people in

:55:33.:55:41.

your party agreed. Why would it be any different from the trade

:55:42.:55:44.

agreement you have now? Diane macro because it is too restrictive. There

:55:45.:55:50.

are protective policies for eastern Europe. My business has traded with

:55:51.:56:03.

companies all over Europe. We are a very small company. We would never

:56:04.:56:07.

have had the opportunity to do that if we had tariff barriers, customs

:56:08.:56:15.

agreement and all of those things to deal with. Realistically I want to

:56:16.:56:19.

see businesses with the opportunity of a market to grow. You need access

:56:20.:56:28.

to markets and worldwide trade agreements as bigger organisations.

:56:29.:56:36.

There is an element of trickle`down. You could argue that thanks to the

:56:37.:56:40.

Coalition Government things are much better than they have been for a

:56:41.:56:44.

long time. People are not going to take the risk of losing jobs and

:56:45.:56:50.

economic benefits. 17.5% of jobs in the south`east depend on the UK more

:56:51.:57:01.

than they did in 1997. We will have to put our case and the others will

:57:02.:57:04.

need to put their case. If we actually come out then there will be

:57:05.:57:12.

4 million jobs created. Not 3.5 million lost. On the one side of

:57:13.:57:19.

that argument you have people like British Airways and virgin this

:57:20.:57:23.

week, the CBI and the university sector, the City of London this week

:57:24.:57:29.

all saying they want to be in the EU. On the other side of the skill

:57:30.:57:33.

you have Nigel Farage, which side are you on? Thank you for joining

:57:34.:57:40.

us. We have spoken to our free election programmes, to

:57:41.:57:44.

representatives of each of the main political parties in the south`east

:57:45.:57:49.

but there are also some smaller parties and we asked them to tell us

:57:50.:57:56.

a bit about their campaigns. The EU has taken our sovereignty and

:57:57.:58:01.

reduces us to second`class citizens. There is no doubt that the EU is a

:58:02.:58:07.

black hole that takes taxpayers money. Instead of creating peace we

:58:08.:58:14.

have recession and instead of democracy we have bureaucracy. We

:58:15.:58:19.

would choose to leave the European Union right now based on high levels

:58:20.:58:24.

of corruption and low levels of democracy. The EU seems to be almost

:58:25.:58:29.

wilfully walking away from a Christian heritage which many

:58:30.:58:32.

nations were built upon. Some parties which support withdrawal

:58:33.:58:38.

from Europe will not go to Brussels to work but we will. While he has

:58:39.:58:44.

been a member of the European Parliament our member has constantly

:58:45.:58:48.

highlighted the corruption he found within it. He also played a part in

:58:49.:58:55.

the British government in not going forward in a war with Syria. If one

:58:56.:59:01.

MEP can be that influential, imagine the influence that Kenwood. Peaceful

:59:02.:59:08.

coexistence has existed in Europe for many years past, this supports

:59:09.:59:14.

that. Our party would build on that success story by scaling down the

:59:15.:59:18.

military, firstly in smaller countries and then later with all

:59:19.:59:25.

countries in the union. We are the equivalent to the Scottish National

:59:26.:59:29.

party and Plaid Cymru in England. In terms of standing, we are concerned

:59:30.:59:34.

about the rise of extreme Islam in England. Now to Chardy law in

:59:35.:59:41.

England. We are also concerned about mass immigration so it is English

:59:42.:59:46.

jobs for English workers as far as we are concerned. We are the most

:59:47.:59:52.

democratic party in this country, with no leaders, we use every

:59:53.:59:59.

opportunity to put forward our analysis and proposition which is a

:00:00.:00:03.

revolutionary change in society from one which is produced solely for the

:00:04.:00:07.

profit of the tiny minority to one which produces solely human needs.

:00:08.:00:18.

`` provides solely for human needs. So we will end with a big

:00:19.:00:22.

prediction, will you still be an MEP in one week? Tell macro yes. I think

:00:23.:00:35.

so. That is confident. The macro and I think they will have MEPs which

:00:36.:00:39.

will actually turn up and do the job. That was the third of our

:00:40.:00:46.

special election programmes. My thanks to our guests. We will be

:00:47.:00:55.

back next week. In the meantime BBC Radio has a European election debate

:00:56.:01:02.

which you can hear tomorrow morning between nine and ten. I will be here

:01:03.:01:09.

on BBC One with bulletins overnight on Thursday after the polls close.

:01:10.:01:15.

If you want more information on the elections in the meantime go to our

:01:16.:01:17.

website. Goodbye. thank you very much indeed. Back to

:01:18.:01:28.

Andrew. Welcome back. Politicians always

:01:29.:01:42.

insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own

:01:43.:01:47.

parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take

:01:48.:01:53.

them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer look. First up, how the

:01:54.:01:58.

votes might fall for the European Parliament. Back in January, Labour

:01:59.:02:03.

looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead.

:02:04.:02:09.

According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into

:02:10.:02:12.

place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar

:02:13.:02:18.

picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by

:02:19.:02:35.

the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a

:02:36.:02:39.

long time. It keeps us in a job! We are joined now by the managing

:02:40.:02:43.

director of the pollsters, ComRes. Welcome to the programme. While the

:02:44.:02:49.

polls all over the place on the European election? We are trying to

:02:50.:02:52.

do two things, figure out who is going to be voting, and how they are

:02:53.:02:58.

going to be voting. I think a lot of the polls are predicting quite high

:02:59.:03:02.

turnout. They are looking at more than 50% turnout, which is simply

:03:03.:03:08.

not can be the case. So, what we are doing is predicting it based on

:03:09.:03:12.

those who are ten out of ten, certain to vote, and it really

:03:13.:03:15.

benefits UKIP, it benefits them democratically, demographically,

:03:16.:03:21.

with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives

:03:22.:03:32.

them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are

:03:33.:03:35.

either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid?

:03:36.:03:39.

Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong.

:03:40.:03:46.

Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on

:03:47.:03:53.

Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What

:03:54.:04:04.

does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it

:04:05.:04:13.

change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls,

:04:14.:04:19.

how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote.

:04:20.:04:24.

Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and

:04:25.:04:29.

more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming

:04:30.:04:30.

fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does

:04:31.:04:39.

the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether

:04:40.:04:45.

UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We know that over 50% of the UKIP vote

:04:46.:04:49.

share is coming from the Conservatives come people who did

:04:50.:04:52.

vote Conservative in 2010. But actually, the other 50% is coming

:04:53.:04:55.

from a wide range of different sources. And what we are seeing is

:04:56.:05:02.

that ultimately, every single establishment party should be

:05:03.:05:05.

worried, because the people voting for UKIP are the people that really

:05:06.:05:10.

do not like politics at the moment. They are wanting people to speak on

:05:11.:05:13.

their behalf, so it affects all of them. There is evidence that there

:05:14.:05:20.

is now a move of some working-class Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's

:05:21.:05:26.

right. That is what I mean about the establishment vote, the people that

:05:27.:05:30.

they can really reach out to, who are really interested in things like

:05:31.:05:35.

immigration, in those single issues, where they do not feel the political

:05:36.:05:39.

parties of the mainstream are representing them. I would suggest

:05:40.:05:43.

that for the European elections, where turnout is low, ComRes may be

:05:44.:05:51.

right or wrong, but likely to vote would seem to be the yardstick. I

:05:52.:05:58.

would say that is true in almost any European election apart from this

:05:59.:06:01.

one. Because there has been so much attention on this election, because

:06:02.:06:04.

of UKIP and the probably do that they will win second, I wonder

:06:05.:06:08.

whether it is now such a big topic of conversation, the subject of

:06:09.:06:15.

Nigel Farage, that people who would otherwise talk a good game about

:06:16.:06:19.

voting UKIP but do not show up on the day are this time around likely

:06:20.:06:24.

to show up on the day? I am not entirely convinced by that. We

:06:25.:06:28.

underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I

:06:29.:06:36.

think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other

:06:37.:06:41.

standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in

:06:42.:06:44.

Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you

:06:45.:06:49.

would think, if you are a UKIP photo, if you have made that choice,

:06:50.:06:55.

then you would probably be more motivated to go and vote on

:06:56.:07:00.

Thursday? I am sure that is right. Also, the publicity that Nigel

:07:01.:07:05.

Farage has had. And also, as Catherine says, people are attracted

:07:06.:07:09.

to UKIP because they are annoyed with the established parties. If you

:07:10.:07:15.

have made that big decision to do it, then you will probably do it.

:07:16.:07:18.

The really big question which we want to take out of these elections

:07:19.:07:24.

is, how many people who have left the established parties, left the

:07:25.:07:28.

Conservative Party, in these elections on Thursday, how many of

:07:29.:07:31.

them will stick with UKIP and how many of them will go back? Nigel

:07:32.:07:40.

Farage is very confident, he is saying that 60% of those certain to

:07:41.:07:43.

vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If that happens, it is a real problem

:07:44.:07:47.

for Downing Street. Downing Street are basically saying that many

:07:48.:07:51.

Tories will have a fling with UKIP but they will return to the marital

:07:52.:07:56.

home next year. You do two sorts of polling, for the European elections,

:07:57.:08:02.

and for the general election, which may be more relevant to the local

:08:03.:08:05.

election voters, but what is the answer to his question? We do not

:08:06.:08:12.

know at the moment. We when you ask people how likely they are to vote

:08:13.:08:16.

in the same way, they are thinking that actually, I am going to vote in

:08:17.:08:20.

exactly the same way at the general election, they are not going to say,

:08:21.:08:24.

I am going to split my vote. I think the key point is, what happens in

:08:25.:08:29.

the Euros. We have a fixed term parliament, which means momentum is

:08:30.:08:33.

crucial. What comes out of the Euros will be a statement about how well

:08:34.:08:39.

UKIP can last for the next year, or indeed, if it comes second, it is

:08:40.:08:44.

about momentum and feeling about the parties. I do not think we can tell

:08:45.:08:49.

yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will

:08:50.:08:54.

have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the

:08:55.:09:07.

screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could

:09:08.:09:13.

be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the

:09:14.:09:18.

mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And

:09:19.:09:22.

there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in

:09:23.:09:27.

the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There

:09:28.:09:30.

are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an

:09:31.:09:38.

honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If

:09:39.:09:46.

Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is

:09:47.:09:51.

nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't

:09:52.:09:55.

there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could

:09:56.:10:04.

happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be

:10:05.:10:08.

replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have

:10:09.:10:12.

to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David

:10:13.:10:17.

Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the

:10:18.:10:21.

right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is

:10:22.:10:26.

quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find

:10:27.:10:31.

the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories

:10:32.:10:36.

want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are

:10:37.:10:39.

right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big

:10:40.:10:45.

thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris

:10:46.:10:48.

Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the

:10:49.:10:53.

chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But

:10:54.:11:01.

where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called

:11:02.:11:04.

Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.

:11:05.:11:08.

And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not

:11:09.:11:12.

lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And

:11:13.:11:18.

some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,

:11:19.:11:21.

Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression

:11:22.:11:24.

that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed

:11:25.:11:30.

Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this

:11:31.:11:34.

rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although

:11:35.:11:38.

that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in

:11:39.:11:45.

the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the

:11:46.:11:49.

economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on

:11:50.:11:53.

your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference

:11:54.:11:58.

between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was

:11:59.:12:02.

elected in 2008 after the crash, so everything he did was about rescue.

:12:03.:12:08.

The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power

:12:09.:12:11.

when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.

:12:12.:12:15.

Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -

:12:16.:12:20.

Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David

:12:21.:12:25.

Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that

:12:26.:12:32.

matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like

:12:33.:12:38.

Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who

:12:39.:12:42.

you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,

:12:43.:12:45.

the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not

:12:46.:12:50.

changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.

:12:51.:12:57.

Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing

:12:58.:13:03.

about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to

:13:04.:13:08.

use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you

:13:09.:13:13.

all go to the polls on Thursday. There will be tonnes of election

:13:14.:13:16.

coverage and results on the BBC, Thursday night, Friday, and of

:13:17.:13:21.

course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily

:13:22.:13:24.

Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next

:13:25.:13:28.

Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it

:13:29.:13:32.

is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.

:13:33.:13:39.

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