18/12/2016 Sunday Politics South East


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Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.


Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.


Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum


by forcing a second vote before we leave?


Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be


pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".


Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business


It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"


but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,


And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer


and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,


They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.


First this morning, some say they will fight


for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those


who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British


people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -


The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have


tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.


The original resolution called on the European Parliament


to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens


of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".


He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish


must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%


The amendments were proposed in October,


but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels


Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.


The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.


Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed


Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try


and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was


simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months


ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different


newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort


to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to


rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You


would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?


I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory


referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a


questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,


it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking


the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a


very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who


said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save


money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and


our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But


your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is


to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would


respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to


be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain


money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government


said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need


to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the


single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options


should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will


be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more


illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a


report about future treaty amendments down the road for years


to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side


reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will


you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the


text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if


the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you


mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,


was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of


the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European


Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of


action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and


disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to


think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you


might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be


clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European


Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am


acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating


things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out


to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are


going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the


shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,


in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is


implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about


whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because


that has to take account of the future framework of relationships


with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That


means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be


outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very


damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the


rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the


customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give


us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is


not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the


results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see


that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the


divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget


for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single


market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will


know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be


damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a


minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider


the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to


leave it there but thank you for joining us.


Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what


happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview


illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach


taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one


breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action


subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are


sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to


happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists


on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public


opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together


to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take


moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every


single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether


it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not


think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in


the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to


question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these


things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he


wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you


can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But


the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad


deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is


implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we


are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a


minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going


to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,


six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage


Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,


or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of


2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa


May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that


Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I


recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical


drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't


think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very


long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we


would stay in the customs union after Brexit.


There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff


setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at


all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it


is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the


customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the


cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a


member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would


make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs


union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as


binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would


suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to


do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that


is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his


opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in


Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury


PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is


Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the


customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the


customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is


proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do


free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade


deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment


but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade


deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line


for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought


Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to


suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an


argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he


wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet


about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country


we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,


but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look


at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is


happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I


think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it


becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we


are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this


country. So, we've had a warning this week


that it could take ten years to do a trade deal


with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand


trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first


countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal


with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told


us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film


for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High


Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined


the European Union, Now I'm in the job,


the UK is leaving. Australia supported


Britain remaining a member of the European Union,


but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,


we hope that Britain will get on with the process


of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make


the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,


Australia approached the British Government


with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,


to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian


governments have already established a working group to explore a future,


ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide


great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase


British-made cars for less We would give British


households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,


so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce


when the equivalent British or Australian households would have


access to British products Free-trade agreements


are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source


of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests


over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement


would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade


agreements are not just about trade and investment,


they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations


often work more closely together in other fields including security,


the spread of democracy We may have preferred


the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK


to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can


be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade


agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement


with the United States This is one of the reasons why


the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years


and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's


vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help


in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The


Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal


with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is


complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.


The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual


trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with


the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary


examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking


already, we have set up a joint working group with the British


Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what


questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have


formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no


free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long


and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian


agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its


access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,


is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a


scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union


and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.


But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but


one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain


leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has


always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not


happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European


Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality


which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international


relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.


It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose


that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped


out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a


free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is


about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless


you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that


case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and


that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of


negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up


nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this


free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other


than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both


free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not


think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the


UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to


Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot


of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years


is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has


made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal


is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin


and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we


returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country


rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we


will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the


transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have


other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate


would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to


achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a


free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is


more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with


China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and


they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing


with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think


Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there


is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and


the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.


So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct


barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved


in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade


system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United


Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European


Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will


try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly


commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a


free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the


Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our


present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate


against any country. The European Union's free movement means you


discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.


It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building


of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it


more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.


Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis


of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?


40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.


Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.


It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions


about air pollution, that this is a public health


emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,


But how bad is air quality in Britain really?


Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works


at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.


He has been looking into the recent claims


It's a problem and it affects people's health.


But when people start talking about the numbers


of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.


There have been tremendous improvements in air quality


There is a lot less pollution than there used to be


and none of that is coming through in the public


So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels


of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?


It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution


on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who


It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening


To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit


I asked him about the data on which these claims


They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities


First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure


29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000


I will just talk about this group for a start.


These are what are known as attributable deaths.


Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.


Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this


was based on a study of US cities and they found out that


by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had


a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.


They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying


each year for each small increase in pollution.


So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise


it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises


the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.


So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000


Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.


And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths


How much should we invest in cycling?


Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?


We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,


but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?


I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment


and for air pollution that they don't really


see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.


Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing


London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.


If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,


that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.


If you are poor and you are in social class five,


compared to social class one, that would take seven


If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.


Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all


of the cars in London and all of the road transport,


we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air


pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.


There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,


but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact


on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making


And we are joined now by the Executive Director


You have called pollution and national crisis and a health


emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are


remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the


studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the


UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air


pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if


you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is


impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of


solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is


down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which


we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from


the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is


something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.


If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of


the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really


worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe


good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far


from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is


it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the


last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health


Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they


need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if


you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if


you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities


and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very


high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors


and many studies by London University showing this to be true.


The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of


pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is


causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.


The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and


there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we


have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution


causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is


40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.


Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are


talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air


pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to


phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner


tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and


clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had


the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to


me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most


polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking


at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure


which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical


effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is


everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of


people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,


but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air


pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more


individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be


premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be


by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing


difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke


and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do


you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined


that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.


But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000


deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by


that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do


something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly


caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem


of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I


am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another


claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe


clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have


also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50


cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you


look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the


actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent


effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in


terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am


throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed


that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and


that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us


that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does


take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine


months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten


years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a


piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken


it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the


professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the


thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the


impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young


children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,


this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the


underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not


arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate


things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree


with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I


absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been


made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think


the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,


diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can


get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see


us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.


It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.


We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now


I'm Julia George and this is the Sunday Politics


Coming up later: Hanging out at the youth club -


but might these teenagers soon be hanging out on the street?


We'll take a look at proposals in Brighton and Hove to drastically


cut the money that goes to youth services.


Joining me today to discuss this and other stories are the Labour


leader of Brighton and Hove City council, Warren Morgan.


And Tim Loughton - Conservative MP for neighbouring


Let's start with an update on Southern Trains.


And the worst rail disruption in 20 years.


For three days this week, the rolling stock stood


still as drivers from the Aslef union walked out.


Transport Secretary Chris Grayling insists the Government doesn't


have the power to step in and has hinted at a change in the law that


could make this kind of industrial action more difficult in the future.


The government needs to step in and resolve it because it's


It's absolutely disgraceful and I think the PM needs to get


involved because people are losing jobs and it is completely


I don't really get the point of us of it any more.


It's really aggravating and something needs to be done


Again, ruined my journey to work so now I have to find


What's the impact, would you say, on your constituents?


This is the biggest single issue any MP in Sussex and South London


Daily dozens and dozens of e-mails, tweets of yet another disastrous day


I quoted at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday a specific


case of a constituent on life-saving cancer drug trials who has to get to


University College Hospital Who had to leave at the crack of dawn,


and expensive taxi that day, just to get to London for that.


People are losing their jobs, people are not getting to school


and colleges and now we hear that employers are not recruiting people


This is a devastating effect on constituents.


None of us underestimate the impact of this.


Warren Morgan, exactly the same question.


In Brighton and Hove, what telling you?


They are saying it is affecting our economy.


Obviously, we're very reliant on retail, on tourism,


They require really good links to London to provide that custom,


those links to business and it is having an effect.


We'll see some of the figures for that in the coming weeks.


Let's talk about the politics of all of this.


Your government says it's powerless to intervene, but, increasingly,


passengers don't seem to believe that.


The group of passengers marched to the Department for Transport this


week calling for answers from Chris Grayling.


One of them is quoted in the papers as saying,


"We are at breaking point if he fails to act.


Well, I've been pretty measured in my criticism of the government


and the Department for Transport of them management of this and now


to the unions who are completely responsible for these unnecessary


strikes which are causing such mayhem at the moment.


What the government is going to do is look at legislation about making


sure this sort of complete disruption, holding hundreds


of thousands of commuters to ransom, can't happen in the future.


That doesn't do anything for this particular dispute, though, does it?


Not immediately, but that legislation could go


What the government has also suggested and what I've said


all along, frankly this franchise is too big to manage.


I do think GTR up to managing it so I think we've got to see a change


in our franchise as soon as possible in the New Year.


But none of this will get the service back to normal


while as left and RMT continue on this crazy strike


about whose switches the button for the doors whilst,


at the same time, you can travel from London to Brighton on a Thames


link train driven by Aslef who operate the doors,


calling at the same stations on the same lines.


For goodness sake, let's suspend the strike action and talk


about any safety concerns, residual it's and get back to some


Just to come act to the politics with Warren Morgan for a moment.


The Prime Minister is calling on direct


She wants Jeremy Corbyn to call up what she referred to as his friends,


the rail union bosses, and to get them to call


It's quite a shocking abdication of a government's authority when it


says it's the opposition that should resolve a strike.


When you're elected to office, as I been in Brighton and Hove,


you have the responsibility to resolve these kinds of dispute.


They should strip Govia Thameslink Rail of their franchise.


The Mayor of London has offered to have the service run by transport


for London and that would be an interim solution.


If the government can't deliver this...


They are the ones in power and should take responsibility.


If he can't handle it then Chris Grayling should go.


The trouble is there is not a queue of people wanting to take on that


TFL, for everything you say, is just not big enough to be able


to deal with the largest train franchise in the country.


And I have no problem with taking the franchise away from them, GTR,


but somebody has got to run the railways and it will end up


with a Department for Transport running it where everyone


is criticising their not fit for purpose.


How does this end, for the people watching today who have had enough?


Everyone has got to be around the table as they are


Then I think the franchise needs to be restructured in the New Year


and more investment to sort out the hold-ups.


Also, we need to find the rail operators when they're not


bringing a decent service and I have a private members bill


on Tuesday which is changing the whole conversation system


which might give a sense of urgency to GTR that this really has got


to be resolved than they need to run a reliable system for the passengers


for the passengers that absolutely depend on it for the everyday lives.


I hope we are all not talking about it in January.


For the rest of today's programme today we're going to look at funding


for the oldest and the youngest people in our communities.


We've been hearing this week that adult social care is teetering


Will it eventually become every family for itself?


Are politicians doing anything meaningful to protect the most


Well let's examine this week's announcements.


The government told local authorities they can bring forward


council tax rises over the next two years, and a transfer of ?240


Here's the Labour leader speaking at PMQs this week.


The Prime Minister doesn't seem to be aware that 4.6 billion was cut


from the social care budget in the last Parliament


and that her talk of putting it on to local governments


2% of council tax is clearly a nonsense.


95% of councils used this social care precept and it raised less


than 3% of the money they planned to spend on adult social care.


We see many councils around the country that have taken


the benefit of social care precept and have seen the result


of more people accessing social care and needs being met.


Sadly, there are also some councils across the country,


some Labour councils, who haven't taken that opportunity


where we do see a worst performance in relation to social care.


The Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition at


Warren Morgan, the government says you and other council leaders can


pull in more council tax more quickly to pay for good care


It's a sticking plaster for a gaping wound.


We can raise an extra ?1 million through this extra 1% that's been


bought forward from the end of Parliament to fund social care.


We've got increases in social care costs of ?7 million


Our total social care bill is ?150 million.


We only bring in ?125 million in total from council tax.


On top of that, we had to run 700 other services.


It is just not possible, nor sustainable.


This isn't a problem with Labour councils.


It's a problem for top tier authorities, county councils,


You've given us the figures for last year of ?8.7 million overspend,


sorry, that's the East Sussex council and yours is 3.8 million.


We've seen a lot of care homes close.


The BBC have said that one in five care homes is at risk of closure


Costs have risen because of the national living wage,


funding has not replaced that and the government is simply passing


the buck to local councils, as it has done with so many


other services, and said, this is your problem.


You raise the tax from local people, you take the blame, you take


OK, this extra council tax, which Jeremy Corbyn referred


All the Communities Secretary has done is given local authorities


the opportunity to take an extra 3% over two years rather


I don't think it's a con, but I agree with Warren that it's


Taking the politics aside, successive governments have


Social care for increasingly aged adult population is the single


biggest challenge to local governments and we've got


to grasp the nettle, come up with a long-term solution


as to how we finance it for a population that is getting


older, how we integrated much better than what's going on in hospitals.


Some parts of the country are doing it better.


There are 24 local authorities responsible for 50% of those older


people in hospital who could be discharged but there's not


If you take somewhere like Worthing, four and a half percent


of the population is over the age of 85.


People come to Worthing and live for a long time


because it's a great place, but those people place extra demands


West Sussex is not only dealing with a large elderly population,


but a very old, elderly population as well and it can only


Let's throw party politics out and sit here and say,


Look at countries like France where there is an obligation


I think you can be prosecuted if you don't visit your elderly parents in.


We need a properly funded, integrated social care and health


We've got a think tank in Brighton and Hove that


looking at and integration, looking at good examples


Of course, no solution can happen without adequate funding.


I and the Leader of the Opposition have called for money that's


earmarked for tax cuts for multinationals to be put


So much for throwing party politics at the window in this discussion!


Is it about redistributing some of the money that is


A couple of weeks ago on the programme we had the Work


and Pensions Secretary who said the pensions triple lock only


People have looked at that as a possible source of more money


It may be a combination of all of those things because there


Absolutely I think families could step up to do more


but they need to be supported to do that.


So if we want older people to be able to stay in their own homes


or close to their own families they need to have the support from


But we are wasting money at the moment.


It cost something like ?1300 to have someone in an Acute Hospital bed


when they could be at a residential home or supported in their own homes


if we integrated or joined up the system so much better


So, what's the impact of all of this on young people?


Well, in Brighton and Hove they're struggling to keep on top


of the cost of elderly care, and the draft budget


for next year includes deep cuts to youth services.


They say they come here because they feel they belong.


I never used to get out of the house.


My friend took me there once and I made friends.


It helps socialise with younger people.


I think I've grown more as a person since coming here.


This centre kind of functions as a home for a lot of people.


Some of Brighton's most vulnerable teenagers come to the Brighton youth


centre and drop-in groups like it, but these initiatives


face an uncertain future as the city council plans to cut


A move that could wipe out almost all of this kind of support.


If you weren't able to go to the youth centre,


Or I'd be on the streets with people that I shouldn't be with.


That's where I'd probably see myself.


The future generation needs this to be helped.


I think it gives a lot of people the skills to go into adulthood


and I think cutting something that is as intrinsic as this


is to youth culture I think is doing a disservice to young people


I've got friends here and got to take part in similar


activities that I would never have even considered.


The proposals affect 11 different youth groups,


eight of which operate as the Brighton and Hove Youth


Collective, a group of charities that together work with almost 3,000


young people a year in some of the most deprived


Almost ten years ago, Sophie was one of them and now


she works on to youth projects and says it was intervention


from youth workers that helped her find her way.


I think that youth work has pretty much changed my path


For me, at 14, I was vulnerable like a lot of young people


are and like a lot of young people will continue to be,


which is why I think youth work is really important because we go


Brighton and Hove City Council is struggling to balance the books


and needs to save ?24 million next year.


By pulling the funding from these groups, the City Council could


save some ?1.3 million over the next three years.


But youth workers say they're concerned about the


long-term impact of the move which they fear could leave some young


people at risk of joining gangs, left on the streets are exposed to


the dangers of drugs, alcohol and crime.


Community preventative services, that's what we see


ourselves providing, and I fear that if those start


disappearing then young people's problems and


challenges will become greater, they will still need to access other


services such as statutory mental health services or social services


and the cost will admit we be greater to the local authorities.


And is not just happening in Brighton.


Research by the union Unison says in the last six years


youth services in the UK have been cut by ?387 million.


Back in Brighton, a petition has been


launched and demonstrators have protested against the proposed cuts,


but with council budgets so tight, is there any alternatives?


Joining us now from Brighton is the Leader of the Green Party


She ran Children's Services for the council and has spent 35


Let us go straight to the Labour leader of the Council and ask why


the drastic cuts to youth services are being made. Because we've had


six years of very drastic cuts from the government and for some of these


absolutely vital services that provide a long-term saving, there is


no scope for those any more. If it wasn't youth services we would be


looking at early intervention, nurseries or children centres and


got ?24 million of cuts to make this got ?24 million of cuts to make this


year and there simply are aren't the scopes to do that. So he is saying


he has no choice, broadly. Can you see why he feels that? Yes, I was


involved in the council so I know it's a difficult choice to be made


across council budgets. I know the chair and the co-chair of the party


and the city but we need to look again at youth work because it's


such a vital service to young people. It gives them somewhere to


go and something to do and adults who aren't parents or teachers to


talk to. The support that is offered is vital to some of the most money


trouble young people in our city and trouble young people in our city and


it's a fairly small budget -- vulnerable people.


A lot of people have spent time trying to bid for the money and we


also have in-house services which are vital as well. We haven't a huge


amount of time. If you think it such a small amount, where would you cut


that from the budget instead? It's about looking across the whole


council budget and not just at children's services. I would urge


Councillor Morgan to talk to the other parties to look at what other


money might be available and the government is the main problem. They


are spending over ?1 million on the National citizenship service which


only deals with 15 and 16-year-olds and a small number across the


country and it is not being taken out widely. There are other choices


to be made. Let me put that pointed to him. Sue Shanks thinks the


argument is with your government. As argument is with your government. As


is always the case and she doesn't come up with an alternative for


funding. I was a minister for children and young people and


produced a document about the future of youth and I think it's


short-sighted where there have been cuts to youth services. I helped to


design a service that is the biggest single youth volunteering service in


the country at the moment and it's a fantastic project for many young


people and we want to have younger people coming in to put fair for


their national citizen service as well. I understand why you want to


defend that, but let's stay closer to home. Darren Morgan, the


teenagers affected by the cut cuts and the children don't have a


they're an easy target. As with they're an easy target. As with


early years services, what we wanted to do and see mentioned are planned


to transfer it to the voluntary sector, that should have happened


three or four years ago. I would ask see why she didn't begin the process


earlier. We've run out of time. We're making savings from a whole


range of 700 council services but we've now got to make some pretty


desperate savings to balance the books by March. Unison is calling


for youth services to become statutory in the same way that


I have some sympathy with that. The I have some sympathy with that. The


trouble is that youth services needed to be reformed. What certain


parts of the country have done is bring together local authorities


with voluntary organisations and businesses as well to come up with


youth sounds and services that young people want to use at times when


they want to. Into many parts of the country, youth services were not


very user-friendly for use as well. We saw how user-friendly the


services were. Is there any hope for those people who feel their youth


centres are just a complete lifeline for them? We'll keep working as long


as we possibly can to try and keep them going. I was a trustee at a


club in my ward for eight years and know the value of really good


universal open offer youth services and I would urge anyone in the city


who can help us out to step in and trying keep their sentences going.


And your last thought on this? -- to keep those services going. I think


open access services are vital and the money deduced collective gets


brings in extra money but our own in-house service is also important.


We've undervalued youth service in this country for a long time and a


lot of people who go to them will tell you how valuable they are. Just


time for some other news you may have missed in 60 seconds.


The MP for Becks Hill and Battle says many schools in his


constituency will be worse off under new government plans for school


funding. It comes after a long-running campaign by MPs in


Sussex calling for a fairer system. He says he wants a meeting to


discuss the proposals. I didn't expect that I would see a reduction


as well. Kent MP has for government support to stop lorries parking


Mid Kent asked by Minister to Mid Kent asked by Minister to


support her campaign. The government shares the desire to ensure we don't


see this parking of lorries across Kent and it's something the


government is working on and we'll find a solution.


Travellers in Brighton and Hove say they are being unfairly targeted by


new powers being given to the City Council next month. And that a new


order, people can be fined ?75 for pitching tents or caravans without


permission. That's all we've got time


for from the South East this week My thanks to our guests,


Tim Loughton and Warren Morgan. We will be back in January


with coverage of all the south east Will Article 50 be triggered


by the end of March, will President Trump start work


on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen


provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and


Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of


you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum


and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end


of the year? I don't think he will lose


the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the


referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that


coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television!


It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible,


Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a


host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring


and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And


until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs


Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the


likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the


Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to


properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain


is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German


election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power


in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation


and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has


been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the


government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and


even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of


the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war


could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull


year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan.


The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will


say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there


will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018


which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office


which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know


there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their


elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be


more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the


Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get


them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the


things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for


Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the


economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those


already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no


guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things


Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How


much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are


willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out


into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship


with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is


also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European


security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the


rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade


everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is


bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a


punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on


the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump


changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very


different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit


was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even


one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this


panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican


nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would


not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican


nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward


a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are


pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already!


We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as


president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been


noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants


massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next


year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed


the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up


interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the


Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not


Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the


rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure


projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets


those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending


he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal


government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker


Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the


American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise


in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe


will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign


debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign


debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that


happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To


begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull


off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via


corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is


too expensive for American business to take back into the US and


reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end


up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on


steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for


Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports


as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign


direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice


versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and


likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the


British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about


the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President


Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net


exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they


do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US


for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft


carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution,


people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust


belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are


much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar


is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of


Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now


dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections


in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which


outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would


be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in


France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois


Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right


candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite.


Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois


Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last


year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation


and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the


context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as


busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up


in my hours! That's all for today,


thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back


on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here


on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday,


it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer


can hope from a reader West Side Story took choreography


in a radical new direction. The dance was woven


into the storyline,


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