Browse content similar to 05/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:37. | :00:42. | |
The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree | :00:43. | :00:45. | |
in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless". | :00:46. | :00:47. | |
But will there be more money for social care and to ease | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
The UK terror threat is currently severe, | :00:51. | :00:56. | |
but where is that threat coming from? | :00:57. | :00:58. | |
We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every | :00:59. | :01:01. | |
Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades. | :01:02. | :01:05. | |
What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks? | :01:06. | :01:12. | |
The government was defeated in the Lords on its | :01:13. | :01:14. | |
We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers | :01:15. | :01:18. | |
And in the South East, there's been an angry reaction | :01:19. | :01:21. | |
to plans to sell off land at Beachy Head, but is | :01:22. | :01:23. | |
it a necessary move to fill Eastbourne's council coffers? | :01:24. | :01:37. | |
All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter. | :01:38. | :01:41. | |
Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed | :01:42. | :01:43. | |
to get into the BBC news studios this weekend. | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet, | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
so we might as well make use of them as our political panel. | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards. | :01:53. | :01:55. | |
They'll be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial | :02:01. | :02:06. | |
statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget | :02:07. | :02:08. | |
for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
There's been pressure on him to find more money | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
for the Health Service, social care, schools funding, | :02:16. | :02:17. | |
But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark | :02:23. | :02:24. | |
What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed | :02:25. | :02:36. | |
quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on | :02:37. | :02:43. | |
Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it | :02:48. | :02:49. | |
He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his | :02:50. | :03:01. | |
statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement | :03:02. | :03:07. | |
rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect | :03:12. | :03:14. | |
that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my | :03:21. | :03:25. | |
view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care | :03:26. | :03:30. | |
policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the | :03:35. | :03:39. | |
politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but | :03:40. | :03:44. | |
it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry | :03:45. | :03:50. | |
on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November. | :03:51. | :03:57. | |
But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump | :04:02. | :04:04. | |
priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to | :04:05. | :04:11. | |
make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of | :04:16. | :04:20. | |
this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some | :04:24. | :04:29. | |
senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively | :04:38. | :04:44. | |
slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it | :04:49. | :04:53. | |
sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we | :05:04. | :05:07. | |
now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well. | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just | :05:30. | :05:36. | |
social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old | :05:37. | :05:42. | |
people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words | :05:43. | :05:48. | |
this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra | :05:49. | :05:52. | |
30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think | :06:04. | :06:10. | |
Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its | :06:11. | :06:14. | |
wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might | :06:15. | :06:17. | |
have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up | :06:18. | :06:23. | |
Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you | :06:24. | :06:29. | |
like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural | :06:35. | :06:39. | |
deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest | :06:44. | :06:50. | |
of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is | :06:57. | :07:02. | |
interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original | :07:08. | :07:10. | |
George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is | :07:16. | :07:18. | |
beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot | :07:24. | :07:28. | |
of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will | :07:29. | :07:32. | |
end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the | :07:33. | :07:34. | |
budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated | :07:35. | :07:38. | |
last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that | :07:39. | :07:41. | |
will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU | :07:42. | :07:43. | |
nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove | :07:44. | :07:46. | |
the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from | :07:47. | :07:49. | |
the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make | :07:50. | :07:55. | |
a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU | :07:56. | :07:58. | |
nationals living here. If the worst happened, | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here, | :08:04. | :08:06. | |
who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants, | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables, | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
"Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not | :08:15. | :08:16. | |
going to say that. So, why not end the | :08:17. | :08:19. | |
uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate | :08:20. | :08:21. | |
which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously | :08:26. | :08:36. | |
agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral | :08:37. | :08:42. | |
decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think | :08:43. | :08:45. | |
that is the right and fair thing to do. | :08:46. | :08:46. | |
And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader | :08:47. | :08:49. | |
of the House of Commons, David Lidington. | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU | :09:00. | :09:02. | |
nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have | :09:07. | :09:13. | |
always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it | :09:14. | :09:16. | |
does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating | :09:22. | :09:25. | |
with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens | :09:26. | :09:33. | |
here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December | :09:34. | :09:39. | |
European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this. | :09:40. | :09:45. | |
That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the | :09:46. | :09:49. | |
view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has | :09:50. | :09:53. | |
been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the | :10:13. | :10:20. | |
UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are | :10:21. | :10:26. | |
you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that | :10:27. | :10:30. | |
goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on... | :10:37. | :10:44. | |
But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1 | :10:49. | :10:52. | |
million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture, | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British | :11:02. | :11:07. | |
citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely | :11:18. | :11:22. | |
extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries | :11:35. | :11:41. | |
might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you | :11:42. | :11:47. | |
frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue | :11:58. | :12:04. | |
that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that | :12:28. | :12:32. | |
we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a | :12:37. | :12:42. | |
reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU | :12:52. | :12:56. | |
nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and | :12:57. | :13:02. | |
face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen. | :13:03. | :13:10. | |
We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is | :13:28. | :13:35. | |
the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home | :13:36. | :13:40. | |
Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a | :13:41. | :13:46. | |
vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament | :13:47. | :13:48. | |
voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British | :13:49. | :13:55. | |
Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and | :13:56. | :14:03. | |
others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working | :14:04. | :14:06. | |
hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens, | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the | :14:16. | :14:18. | |
issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the | :14:19. | :14:24. | |
Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this | :14:25. | :14:28. | |
month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely | :14:29. | :14:34. | |
hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable | :14:35. | :14:39. | |
constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of | :14:40. | :14:42. | |
commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an | :14:43. | :14:49. | |
unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at | :14:50. | :14:53. | |
the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that | :14:54. | :14:59. | |
sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It | :15:00. | :15:07. | |
is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the | :15:08. | :15:09. | |
end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments | :15:10. | :15:17. | |
will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean | :15:32. | :15:37. | |
by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to | :15:42. | :15:44. | |
consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given | :15:45. | :15:50. | |
a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have | :15:51. | :15:57. | |
negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what | :15:58. | :16:02. | |
you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to | :16:03. | :16:07. | |
vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the | :16:12. | :16:18. | |
PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27 | :16:19. | :16:25. | |
were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take | :16:26. | :16:29. | |
fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of | :16:30. | :16:32. | |
the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial | :16:38. | :16:43. | |
deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway, | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is | :16:53. | :16:59. | |
straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the | :17:00. | :17:04. | |
recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is | :17:05. | :17:13. | |
irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I | :17:19. | :17:25. | |
think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and | :17:35. | :17:37. | |
negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate | :17:38. | :17:39. | |
on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you | :17:40. | :17:44. | |
said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal | :17:45. | :17:49. | |
with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your | :17:50. | :17:55. | |
mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as | :17:56. | :18:09. | |
you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms | :18:10. | :18:13. | |
of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term | :18:14. | :18:19. | |
trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out, | :18:20. | :18:25. | |
what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago | :18:26. | :18:29. | |
you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big | :18:30. | :18:35. | |
difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort | :18:42. | :18:48. | |
this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and | :18:54. | :18:56. | |
those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive | :18:57. | :19:05. | |
challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that | :19:06. | :19:08. | |
was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you, | :19:09. | :19:11. | |
David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had | :19:12. | :19:13. | |
sight of a major new report The thousand-page study, | :19:14. | :19:16. | |
which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced, | :19:17. | :19:21. | |
analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences | :19:22. | :19:27. | |
committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were, | :19:28. | :19:30. | |
thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn | :19:31. | :19:31. | |
from those offences? For the police and the intelligence | :19:32. | :19:33. | |
agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think | :19:34. | :19:43. | |
tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge | :19:44. | :19:50. | |
new report which analyses every Islamism related attack | :19:51. | :20:00. | |
and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases | :20:01. | :20:02. | |
involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
important to have an evidence base from which you draw | :20:10. | :20:11. | |
policy and policing, This isn't my opinion, | :20:12. | :20:13. | |
this the facts. This chart shows the number | :20:14. | :20:18. | |
of cases each year combined with a small number | :20:19. | :20:20. | |
of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle | :20:21. | :20:24. | |
of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings | :20:25. | :20:27. | |
in London in 2005. Offences tailed off, | :20:28. | :20:31. | |
before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers | :20:35. | :20:37. | |
started counting. What we are seeing is a combination | :20:38. | :20:42. | |
of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing, | :20:43. | :20:46. | |
we know that from the security services and police statements, | :20:47. | :20:49. | |
but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms | :20:50. | :20:51. | |
of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have | :20:52. | :20:54. | |
facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement, | :20:55. | :21:02. | |
documents, money. About 18% of people | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related | :21:07. | :21:09. | |
to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted | :21:10. | :21:15. | |
of planning attacks, although the methods have | :21:16. | :21:23. | |
changed over time. Five or six years ago, | :21:24. | :21:27. | |
we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most | :21:28. | :21:31. | |
of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession, | :21:32. | :21:34. | |
that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online | :21:35. | :21:37. | |
magazine that had specific More recently we have seen | :21:38. | :21:39. | |
Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife | :21:40. | :21:44. | |
beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have | :21:45. | :21:47. | |
seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her | :21:48. | :21:49. | |
husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received | :21:50. | :21:54. | |
an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing | :21:55. | :21:59. | |
number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out | :22:05. | :22:06. | |
by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists, | :22:07. | :22:09. | |
a report says the vast Most have their home in London, | :22:10. | :22:12. | |
around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands, | :22:13. | :22:21. | |
particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another | :22:22. | :22:24. | |
hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth | :22:25. | :22:26. | |
and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were | :22:27. | :22:33. | |
60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were | :22:34. | :22:42. | |
16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases, | :22:43. | :22:46. | |
he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting | :22:47. | :22:48. | |
is how different each story is in many ways, | :22:49. | :22:51. | |
but then within those differences So your angry young men, | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience | :22:55. | :23:02. | |
abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types, | :23:03. | :23:09. | |
the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within | :23:10. | :23:11. | |
this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds | :23:12. | :23:14. | |
and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those | :23:15. | :23:20. | |
convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities | :23:21. | :23:22. | |
because they had a previous criminal record, they had | :23:23. | :23:25. | |
made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them | :23:26. | :23:28. | |
under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this | :23:29. | :23:34. | |
report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones, | :23:35. | :23:41. | |
Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen | :23:42. | :23:44. | |
from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated | :23:45. | :23:59. | |
Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist | :24:00. | :24:05. | |
terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated | :24:06. | :24:09. | |
communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the | :24:10. | :24:13. | |
wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I | :24:14. | :24:17. | |
think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very | :24:18. | :24:23. | |
recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was | :24:24. | :24:27. | |
that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their | :24:28. | :24:29. | |
neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many | :24:30. | :24:36. | |
participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad | :24:37. | :24:42. | |
thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population | :24:43. | :24:47. | |
is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would | :24:48. | :24:50. | |
prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason | :24:51. | :24:54. | |
they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but | :24:55. | :24:59. | |
often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more | :25:05. | :25:08. | |
diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to | :25:09. | :25:13. | |
that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this | :25:18. | :25:21. | |
pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young | :25:22. | :25:24. | |
Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is | :25:25. | :25:30. | |
the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB | :25:31. | :25:33. | |
attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say | :25:34. | :25:38. | |
to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to | :25:39. | :25:44. | |
counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The | :25:50. | :25:55. | |
report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people | :25:56. | :25:59. | |
being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those | :26:00. | :26:02. | |
convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing | :26:03. | :26:23. | |
to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of | :26:24. | :26:29. | |
work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the | :26:30. | :26:34. | |
earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course | :26:35. | :26:37. | |
subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the | :26:38. | :26:43. | |
Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but | :26:44. | :26:47. | |
there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were | :26:48. | :26:51. | |
once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough | :26:52. | :27:00. | |
to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail. | :27:01. | :27:09. | |
We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The | :27:10. | :27:12. | |
Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on | :27:13. | :27:18. | |
is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community | :27:19. | :27:23. | |
must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share | :27:24. | :27:28. | |
ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim | :27:29. | :27:31. | |
communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it | :27:32. | :27:36. | |
all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun? | :27:37. | :27:43. | |
Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has | :27:44. | :27:48. | |
moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with | :27:49. | :27:55. | |
that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't | :27:56. | :28:03. | |
bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the | :28:04. | :28:07. | |
brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of | :28:13. | :28:19. | |
Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous | :28:20. | :28:24. | |
unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these | :28:25. | :28:29. | |
numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our | :28:30. | :28:31. | |
intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over | :28:32. | :28:38. | |
80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police | :28:39. | :28:46. | |
have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on | :28:47. | :28:51. | |
the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also | :28:52. | :28:57. | |
changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself, | :28:58. | :29:04. | |
get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised | :29:10. | :29:18. | |
people, two or three people get together, do something together, | :29:19. | :29:22. | |
very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where | :29:23. | :29:29. | |
intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police | :29:30. | :29:35. | |
say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried | :29:41. | :29:44. | |
about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been | :29:49. | :29:54. | |
consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they | :29:59. | :30:01. | |
should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called | :30:02. | :30:09. | |
caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about | :30:10. | :30:11. | |
fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into | :30:12. | :30:25. | |
three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic | :30:26. | :30:28. | |
State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the | :30:29. | :30:31. | |
dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great | :30:32. | :30:37. | |
reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there | :30:38. | :30:44. | |
should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all | :30:45. | :30:50. | |
those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them | :30:51. | :30:54. | |
alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is | :30:55. | :31:00. | |
difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a | :31:01. | :31:06. | |
watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them? | :31:07. | :31:14. | |
This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and | :31:15. | :31:17. | |
our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the | :31:18. | :31:22. | |
government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is | :31:23. | :31:26. | |
our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at | :31:27. | :31:31. | |
the border has improved. An important question. Given your | :31:32. | :31:36. | |
experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a | :31:37. | :31:43. | |
medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one. | :31:44. | :31:48. | |
It started when I was security minister and it has been taken | :31:49. | :31:51. | |
seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to | :31:57. | :31:59. | |
take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it | :32:00. | :32:04. | |
Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages, | :32:05. | :32:08. | |
but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still | :32:09. | :32:10. | |
Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have | :32:11. | :32:14. | |
been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020. | :32:15. | :32:18. | |
Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility | :32:19. | :32:21. | |
said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current | :32:22. | :32:23. | |
It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22. | :32:24. | :32:29. | |
On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce | :32:30. | :32:32. | |
that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast. | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level | :32:38. | :32:41. | |
of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4, | :32:42. | :32:46. | |
coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest | :32:47. | :32:49. | |
So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day | :32:50. | :32:55. | |
government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over | :32:56. | :32:58. | |
But capital spending, investment on infrastructure | :32:59. | :33:05. | |
like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow, | :33:06. | :33:09. | |
producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22. | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets | :33:16. | :33:18. | |
while finding some more money for areas under serious | :33:19. | :33:21. | |
pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates. | :33:22. | :33:29. | |
We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. | :33:30. | :33:33. | |
Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR | :33:34. | :33:40. | |
predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn | :33:41. | :33:45. | |
Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It | :33:46. | :33:50. | |
is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England | :33:51. | :33:56. | |
has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a | :33:57. | :34:00. | |
growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a | :34:01. | :34:05. | |
year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next | :34:06. | :34:08. | |
year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or | :34:09. | :34:14. | |
four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the | :34:15. | :34:19. | |
OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement | :34:20. | :34:23. | |
three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other | :34:24. | :34:28. | |
forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as | :34:29. | :34:35. | |
everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its | :34:36. | :34:38. | |
growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised. | :34:39. | :34:45. | |
It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial | :34:46. | :34:49. | |
year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like | :34:50. | :34:54. | |
that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared | :34:55. | :34:59. | |
to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic | :35:00. | :35:03. | |
policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months. | :35:04. | :35:09. | |
That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so | :35:10. | :35:14. | |
close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere | :35:15. | :35:17. | |
between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice | :35:18. | :35:21. | |
surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues | :35:22. | :35:26. | |
were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If | :35:35. | :35:40. | |
growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good | :35:41. | :35:44. | |
news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in | :35:45. | :35:48. | |
the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It | :35:49. | :35:53. | |
probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible | :35:54. | :35:57. | |
outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will | :36:03. | :36:06. | |
still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase | :36:07. | :36:10. | |
his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion | :36:16. | :36:21. | |
more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite | :36:22. | :36:28. | |
constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019. | :36:29. | :36:34. | |
That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and | :36:35. | :36:39. | |
is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as | :36:40. | :36:44. | |
you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic | :36:45. | :36:49. | |
reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some | :36:50. | :36:53. | |
headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending | :36:54. | :36:58. | |
cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things | :36:59. | :37:01. | |
have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in | :37:02. | :37:07. | |
the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the | :37:08. | :37:13. | |
Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is | :37:14. | :37:18. | |
hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of | :37:19. | :37:23. | |
income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for | :37:24. | :37:29. | |
ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has | :37:30. | :37:32. | |
reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for | :37:33. | :37:38. | |
him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax | :37:39. | :37:43. | |
burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its | :37:44. | :37:48. | |
highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of | :37:53. | :37:56. | |
insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty, | :38:03. | :38:07. | |
but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole | :38:08. | :38:12. | |
and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase | :38:13. | :38:19. | |
fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really | :38:20. | :38:26. | |
keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the | :38:27. | :38:32. | |
next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has | :38:33. | :38:37. | |
had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being | :38:38. | :38:38. | |
with us. It's just gone 11.35, | :38:39. | :38:40. | |
you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers | :38:41. | :38:42. | |
in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty | :38:43. | :38:45. | |
minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday | :38:46. | :38:48. | |
Politics where you are. Hello, I'm Natalie Graham, | :38:49. | :38:57. | |
and this is the Sunday Politics Coming up later, it's going to be | :38:58. | :38:59. | |
a tough decision - so says Eastbourne Borough Council, | :39:00. | :39:03. | |
which is deciding whether to sell off farmland | :39:04. | :39:05. | |
on the Downs near Beachy Head. But in this age of austerity, | :39:06. | :39:10. | |
should any council assets be Joining me in the studio today | :39:11. | :39:12. | |
are two people well positioned They are both council | :39:13. | :39:19. | |
leaders in the South East, Keith Glazier is the Conservative | :39:20. | :39:28. | |
head of East Sussex County Council, and Peter Lamb is the Labour Leader | :39:29. | :39:30. | |
of Crawley Borough Council. I just want to get your views | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
on the state of your respective parties before | :39:34. | :39:36. | |
we move other matters. Peter, it is the first time we have | :39:37. | :39:39. | |
talked to you since the outcome of the by-elections last week, | :39:40. | :39:43. | |
and in particular your party lost Copeland, a seat it | :39:44. | :39:45. | |
has held since 1935. So if Labour can lose | :39:46. | :39:47. | |
a seat like that up north, what on earth are your chances | :39:48. | :39:50. | |
here in the South East now? At the end of the day, | :39:51. | :39:53. | |
we have had two leadership elections and my own view is until the party | :39:54. | :39:57. | |
membership comes to the conclusion that being 18 points behind | :39:58. | :39:59. | |
in the polls is not recoverable recoverable position easily, | :40:00. | :40:05. | |
and takes action on that basis, I think, yes, our chances | :40:06. | :40:12. | |
in the South East are difficult. When do you think | :40:13. | :40:14. | |
things might change? Because he seems to be | :40:15. | :40:16. | |
digging his heels in, and as we know, it is a gift | :40:17. | :40:19. | |
to the Conservative Party, from their point of view, | :40:20. | :40:21. | |
to have what they see as an So what do you think | :40:22. | :40:24. | |
will make Jeremy Corbyn It is up to the membership, | :40:25. | :40:28. | |
at the end of the day. If members of the view | :40:29. | :40:34. | |
that they want to take a course that takes us back to elected office | :40:35. | :40:37. | |
and being in a position to do things like saving the NHS and preserving | :40:38. | :40:41. | |
public services than they have got to take the right course and make | :40:42. | :40:44. | |
that apparent to the leadership. Otherwise, we will dig | :40:45. | :40:46. | |
in and we will keep doing our best Sorry to press the point again, | :40:47. | :40:49. | |
but if you were to go into an election now, | :40:50. | :40:56. | |
you said it was going to be difficult, how difficult do | :40:57. | :40:59. | |
you think it would be In all honesty, no party has ever | :41:00. | :41:01. | |
won office when they have been both behind on leadership and economic | :41:02. | :41:08. | |
competence, and we have never been So it sounds like it would be | :41:09. | :41:11. | |
disastrous, in your view? It is not my view, | :41:12. | :41:14. | |
it is the numbers. Keith, let's talk about | :41:15. | :41:17. | |
the Conservative Party. We will talk about cuts to council | :41:18. | :41:18. | |
budgets later in the programme, but it is clear that under | :41:19. | :41:21. | |
Theresa May's leadership as Prime Minister, that austerity | :41:22. | :41:23. | |
is here to stay. We've got council elections coming | :41:24. | :41:29. | |
up in May, you have just raised | :41:30. | :41:31. | |
council tax again by nearly 5%. At what point do you think these | :41:32. | :41:33. | |
consistent hikes in bills is going to affect you | :41:34. | :41:36. | |
at the ballot box? I think it affects | :41:37. | :41:38. | |
the people of the Sussex At the end of the day, | :41:39. | :41:46. | |
the Prime Minister has now concluded that as far as adult social care | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
goes, which is where the big pressure is along with children's | :41:52. | :41:54. | |
services, that actually raising council tax is not | :41:55. | :41:56. | |
a sustainable way of doing it. She is actually setting up | :41:57. | :41:58. | |
a commission to look at that, so hopefully that will alleviate | :41:59. | :42:01. | |
some of the problems. But I think the key message | :42:02. | :42:03. | |
from the top down is that actually we can do things and we can do | :42:04. | :42:06. | |
things differently, and if you look at the way we are dealing | :42:07. | :42:09. | |
with the health service and our work with adult social care | :42:10. | :42:13. | |
and health in East Sussex, it is absolutely | :42:14. | :42:15. | |
the right way to go. If we do not start joining up | :42:16. | :42:17. | |
services, having single accountability boards, | :42:18. | :42:19. | |
then we are missing the point. If people see services, | :42:20. | :42:23. | |
vital services, cut to the bone, when the effects are really felt, | :42:24. | :42:26. | |
and when they see their bills you electorally - | :42:27. | :42:31. | |
that is going to affect your party? The conversations I have with people | :42:32. | :42:41. | |
at the parish councils and on the doorstep, | :42:42. | :42:43. | |
they understand that actually we are in a position | :42:44. | :42:45. | |
where there are less people paying for more older people, | :42:46. | :42:48. | |
more vulnerable people, and that they are actually prepared | :42:49. | :42:49. | |
to do that. That is now. | :42:50. | :42:52. | |
Will it be a continual? I do not think it will be, | :42:53. | :42:54. | |
I think we need to sort it out nationally, and I am convinced | :42:55. | :42:57. | |
that in the next few Let's move on, because any parent | :42:58. | :43:00. | |
will tell you that it's And if you're a working parent, | :43:01. | :43:03. | |
the cost of childcare can sometimes be the cost of your mortgage. | :43:04. | :43:11. | |
For some families it is crippling. Two years ago the Conservatives made | :43:12. | :43:14. | |
a pre-election promise to offer 30 hours free childcare | :43:15. | :43:17. | |
to many parents. In September, that | :43:18. | :43:19. | |
should become a reality. But there are questions | :43:20. | :43:20. | |
about whether nurseries here in the South East can | :43:21. | :43:24. | |
actually afford to deliver on the government's promise. | :43:25. | :43:37. | |
Especially the question of how it should be funded. | :43:38. | :43:49. | |
Currently, all three- and four-year-olds can receive 15 | :43:50. | :43:50. | |
hours of free childcare per week during term time. | :43:51. | :44:01. | |
And from September, that government-funded | :44:02. | :44:09. | |
entitlement will double to 30 free | :44:10. | :44:11. | |
But there are questions over the implementation of this key | :44:12. | :44:15. | |
election pledge made by David Cameron. | :44:16. | :44:17. | |
It was a big consideration when I voted, it was a big | :44:18. | :44:20. | |
sweetener, and it would've been for a lot of working parents. | :44:21. | :44:23. | |
Childcare is a massive expense to us. | :44:24. | :44:25. | |
My concern is now are how it is going to be executed. | :44:26. | :44:34. | |
Nurseries are already managing with very, very tight ratios. | :44:35. | :44:40. | |
Their staffing is incredibly high, which is fantastic for us, | :44:41. | :44:44. | |
but actually adding in those extra hours I think could be a concern. | :44:45. | :44:48. | |
To take up the offer of 30 free hours of childcare, | :44:49. | :44:51. | |
both parents, or a single parent, must earn the equivalent | :44:52. | :44:53. | |
of 16 hours per week at the National Minimum Wage, | :44:54. | :44:57. | |
and each parent must earn less than ?100,000 per year. | :44:58. | :45:00. | |
But I've been in touch with the number of childcare | :45:01. | :45:10. | |
settings across the South East that have serious concerns that a policy | :45:11. | :45:13. | |
aimed at helping working parents may actually backfire. | :45:14. | :45:15. | |
The owner of this day nursery in Hove says she is already | :45:16. | :45:18. | |
underfunded for the 15 free hours she provides, and that doubling | :45:19. | :45:21. | |
the free provision may put nurseries like hers out of business. | :45:22. | :45:23. | |
The stumbling block is the promise was "free". | :45:24. | :45:26. | |
But the government cannot afford to fund it completely free, | :45:27. | :45:29. | |
they cannot afford our fees, and our fees do not exist | :45:30. | :45:32. | |
because we are making millions of pounds per year, | :45:33. | :45:36. | |
they exist because we need to pay staff, and all other bills. | :45:37. | :45:44. | |
But if the government just accepts that it simply is not free | :45:45. | :45:47. | |
and that it is just a subsidy, and it is a healthy subsidy, | :45:48. | :45:51. | |
it is a good reduction, it is not something that | :45:52. | :45:53. | |
But this is a fundamental change to the Tory party pledge. | :45:54. | :45:56. | |
So, are nurseries in the South East planning to offer | :45:57. | :46:03. | |
Last year the Department for Education carried out a survey | :46:04. | :46:08. | |
of childcare providers on this issue. | :46:09. | :46:12. | |
We did some maths and found that in the wider South East | :46:13. | :46:17. | |
90% of early-years settings asked in that survey currently further | :46:18. | :46:19. | |
And according to our figures, 45% of providers from that survey | :46:20. | :46:25. | |
plan to offer places to working parents | :46:26. | :46:27. | |
using the 30 hours' funded entitlement. | :46:28. | :46:40. | |
Childcare campaign groups have warned the funding shortfall may | :46:41. | :46:42. | |
force prices up outside the free nursery provision and that some | :46:43. | :46:45. | |
nurseries may refuse to offer the 30 free hours altogether. | :46:46. | :46:51. | |
The reality is that in the South East, the available capacity, | :46:52. | :46:54. | |
is considerably less than elsewhere. So that certainly is one factor. | :46:55. | :46:57. | |
It is quite clear we are going to have a major issue | :46:58. | :47:00. | |
Of course, costs are considerably higher in the South East | :47:01. | :47:07. | |
than in many other parts of the country. | :47:08. | :47:09. | |
My main concern is that it was a policy that was delivered | :47:10. | :47:12. | |
and announced on the hoof, we have had no consultation, | :47:13. | :47:15. | |
limited consultation, and the reality is the funding | :47:16. | :47:17. | |
is grossly inadequate and you cannot make that work. | :47:18. | :47:19. | |
The government has promised a record investment of ?6 billion per year | :47:20. | :47:22. | |
Will that be enough to make this election pledge | :47:23. | :47:30. | |
a reality for working parents in the South East? | :47:31. | :47:32. | |
Joining us now from Crawley is the Conservative MP | :47:33. | :47:35. | |
Henry Smith, who is an aide at the Department for Education. | :47:36. | :47:39. | |
We've just heard the accusation that the funding is grossly | :47:40. | :47:42. | |
inadequate, and that nursery owner in Hove we just heard from points | :47:43. | :47:46. | |
out the money she gets for 15 hours' free childcare already falls short | :47:47. | :47:49. | |
of the true costs, so just doubling the provision could put nurseries | :47:50. | :47:52. | |
are delivering on their manifesto commitment to have 30 hours of free | :47:53. | :48:04. | |
of free childcare a week for two-year-olds to four-year-olds. | :48:05. | :48:08. | |
It is very important for young families, it is also important | :48:09. | :48:13. | |
for our economy and expanding employment as well. | :48:14. | :48:16. | |
That's why it has been backed by funding of ?6 billion, | :48:17. | :48:25. | |
which is a considerable investment in early-years free provision, | :48:26. | :48:29. | |
which as I say is good for individuals, and will be good | :48:30. | :48:32. | |
I knew you were going to tell me that, but I would like you to answer | :48:33. | :48:37. | |
the question raised by the nursery owner in Hove, | :48:38. | :48:41. | |
I give you another example of a Sussex preschool. | :48:42. | :48:47. | |
They say they would lose ?300 per child per year if they take up | :48:48. | :48:50. | |
the 30 hours' free provision you want them to, | :48:51. | :48:52. | |
and ultimately they say they will be forced to close. | :48:53. | :48:56. | |
There is a range of providers that will be able to supply the scheme. | :48:57. | :49:08. | |
Some of them are maintained providers, some of them | :49:09. | :49:11. | |
are independent nurseries, others are nurseries run | :49:12. | :49:13. | |
I believe the funding will be sufficient. | :49:14. | :49:16. | |
This is new from the old policy of just 15 hours of free childcare. | :49:17. | :49:20. | |
As I say, it's a ?6 billion investment in a commitment that | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
I think is very important, and a promise that was made | :49:25. | :49:27. | |
I believe that funding will be enough but, of course, | :49:28. | :49:33. | |
if the delivery of a policy, as it is rolled out from September, | :49:34. | :49:37. | |
and it is a very ambitious plan, if that delivery means | :49:38. | :49:43. | |
that we need to look at it again, then that is certainly | :49:44. | :49:46. | |
Didn't you put your finger on it - it was an ambitious plan, | :49:47. | :49:51. | |
it was announced on the hoof, in the general election. | :49:52. | :49:53. | |
I believe the Conservatives were trying to trump a similar | :49:54. | :49:56. | |
But if, at the end of the day, the funding shortfall | :49:57. | :49:59. | |
as the National Day Nurseries Association says that it is, | :50:00. | :50:02. | |
is ?800 per year, for three- and four-year-olds already, | :50:03. | :50:04. | |
this is going to backfire horribly, isn't it? | :50:05. | :50:12. | |
I don't think it will, and I'd also challenge the assertion | :50:13. | :50:14. | |
that's been made that this was a policy made on the hoof. | :50:15. | :50:19. | |
Certainly, as a former parent of young children, | :50:20. | :50:25. | |
they have grown up, no starting their teenage years, | :50:26. | :50:32. | |
this is something that I was arguing for should be core Conservative | :50:33. | :50:35. | |
policy for many years, and many of my colleagues | :50:36. | :50:37. | |
So it is ambitious, but it certainly isn't | :50:38. | :50:40. | |
something that was properly thought through. | :50:41. | :50:54. | |
Certainly in recent meetings in the Department for Education, | :50:55. | :51:01. | |
yes, there is a significant roll-out that will be taking place of this | :51:02. | :51:04. | |
policy from September, but I think we need to focus | :51:05. | :51:06. | |
on the positives, this is a ?6 billion investment to ensure | :51:07. | :51:10. | |
that parents are supported in those early years and so that particularly | :51:11. | :51:13. | |
young mums can get back into the workplace | :51:14. | :51:14. | |
Just earlier this week, I opened up a couple | :51:15. | :51:18. | |
of new businesses in Crawley and they are crying | :51:19. | :51:20. | |
out for employees. This will certainly help with that. | :51:21. | :51:23. | |
Henry Smith, thank you very much for joining us. | :51:24. | :51:26. | |
Peter Lamb, he makes the point it was a very popular policy, | :51:27. | :51:29. | |
The government is now delivering on it, so what is not to like? | :51:30. | :51:34. | |
Well, we've yet to see if the government is delivering | :51:35. | :51:36. | |
They're following through with the ?6 billion, | :51:37. | :51:41. | |
but if the cost of the policy is in excess of ?6 billion, | :51:42. | :51:44. | |
and I have to say, having spoken in Crawley to people who run | :51:45. | :51:47. | |
childcare centres, the money is not sufficient as it currently is, | :51:48. | :51:50. | |
then it's a policy which may very well backfire. | :51:51. | :51:52. | |
It's typical, really, it is a good idea, yet another good idea, | :51:53. | :51:55. | |
which has had no planning put behind it. | :51:56. | :51:57. | |
Ultimately I very much hope it succeeds, but it was brave of Henry | :51:58. | :52:00. | |
to stick his neck out saying that it is going to work, | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
because I think people now know who to write | :52:04. | :52:05. | |
I believe that you pay ?4.30 for the provision of free childcare | :52:06. | :52:14. | |
to nurseries and preschools, but actually they say that it costs | :52:15. | :52:17. | |
them ?4.80 per hour just to stay in business. | :52:18. | :52:19. | |
Clearly the maths don't add up, do they? | :52:20. | :52:21. | |
The availability of childcare is an issue, and as you know | :52:22. | :52:26. | |
we are one of the 25 pilots that our running throughout | :52:27. | :52:28. | |
the country at the moment, and we are working with providers | :52:29. | :52:31. | |
and with parents and listening to what is being said. | :52:32. | :52:33. | |
Hopefully by the time this is rolled out in September, | :52:34. | :52:36. | |
a lot of the anomalies, or any issues which have arisen, | :52:37. | :52:42. | |
we'll have an answer to, and it will be a smooth transition. | :52:43. | :52:45. | |
I absolutely agree with Henry that this is a policy which has | :52:46. | :52:48. | |
been around for a while, and we know need | :52:49. | :52:50. | |
We cannot just disregard the issues that providers have, | :52:51. | :52:59. | |
to see if we can overcome some of them. | :53:00. | :53:06. | |
You are sounding less confident than Henry that it well. | :53:07. | :53:11. | |
You are using words like "hopefully" it will be a success. | :53:12. | :53:14. | |
But the fundamental fact is, if you are paying nurseries 50p less | :53:15. | :53:21. | |
than they say they need, how are they supposed to deliver | :53:22. | :53:23. | |
They're surviving and they're providing the care now, | :53:24. | :53:30. | |
and we will continue to work with them. | :53:31. | :53:32. | |
At the end of the day, we have a pot of money that needs | :53:33. | :53:36. | |
If, as Henry said, it proves that the current provision is not | :53:37. | :53:40. | |
what was set out to be, then I'm sure we can look at it, | :53:41. | :53:43. | |
but the problem is, with most of these things, | :53:44. | :53:45. | |
if you do not have that initial conversation, | :53:46. | :53:47. | |
and a point Peter raised about us going into this blind, | :53:48. | :53:50. | |
there have been 25 pilots, but hopefully we can have learnt | :53:51. | :53:52. | |
from some of the issues that are around and have | :53:53. | :53:55. | |
dealt with them before they get rolled out in September. | :53:56. | :53:57. | |
There is clearly a huge demand for free childcare, or at least | :53:58. | :54:02. | |
Is that the answer, rather than free childcare, | :54:03. | :54:05. | |
I'm not going to tell the government go back on a promise they've made, | :54:06. | :54:09. | |
but maybe when they make promises and future, they should make sure | :54:10. | :54:12. | |
that they have adequate funding to follow through with it. | :54:13. | :54:14. | |
Interesting about poor old Keith, here he is, he has already got | :54:15. | :54:17. | |
to find care for granny, he's already got to find a way | :54:18. | :54:20. | |
to keep schools going and avoiding having to drop down to a four-day | :54:21. | :54:23. | |
week, and now they are dumping on him another thing about trying | :54:24. | :54:26. | |
to find all these school places because the government, | :54:27. | :54:28. | |
time and time again, is committing to things | :54:29. | :54:30. | |
Do you feel dumped on by the government? | :54:31. | :54:33. | |
All of these things are exciting opportunities for the people out | :54:34. | :54:37. | |
We don't do this because they don't want it. | :54:38. | :54:41. | |
If I had a massive mailbag that said, actually, Keith, | :54:42. | :54:43. | |
stop the 30 hours childcare, we will do it some other way, | :54:44. | :54:46. | |
But the conversations that I have indicate to me that there is a need | :54:47. | :54:50. | |
for it and I am sure that we will deal with it. | :54:51. | :54:53. | |
And we will see whether you do. We'll invite you back if you don't. | :54:54. | :54:56. | |
For many people, the South Downs Way at Beachy Head is the most beautiful | :54:57. | :55:00. | |
So when Eastbourne Borough Council suggested selling off 3000 acres | :55:01. | :55:03. | |
of downland right next to the coastal path, | :55:04. | :55:05. | |
Residents took to the streets last weekend to protest | :55:06. | :55:10. | |
against the plans, but the council says with government funding cuts | :55:11. | :55:12. | |
it needs to plug the gap and protect front line services. | :55:13. | :55:16. | |
It has run a survey, the results will be published | :55:17. | :55:19. | |
tomorrow and the council says it will abide by the result. | :55:20. | :55:22. | |
Some question whether the council has taken the right approach. | :55:23. | :55:26. | |
I think, unfortunately for the Council, what they have done | :55:27. | :55:29. | |
is given the people of Eastbourne a very biased choice, | :55:30. | :55:31. | |
and in fact it is really little more than blackmail, | :55:32. | :55:34. | |
because what they have said is, if you want to keep the Downs, | :55:35. | :55:37. | |
we're going to cut your public services. | :55:38. | :55:39. | |
Well, in January one Eastbourne Council officer told BBC | :55:40. | :55:41. | |
South East today it had made a number of assurances to residents. | :55:42. | :55:44. | |
Secondly, the open downland will remain accessible | :55:45. | :55:54. | |
The footpaths will remain as they have, and finally | :55:55. | :56:01. | |
that the National Park has very stringent planning regulations | :56:02. | :56:03. | |
in place that will always protect those farms. | :56:04. | :56:05. | |
Keith Glazier, you're the leader of East Sussex County Council, | :56:06. | :56:07. | |
which includes that area of downland. | :56:08. | :56:08. | |
What are you concerned the consequences will be, | :56:09. | :56:10. | |
because as we have just heard, it is farmed land, it is in | :56:11. | :56:14. | |
the South Downs National Park, those footpaths will still be open | :56:15. | :56:16. | |
to the public - what's to worry about? | :56:17. | :56:18. | |
It's an issue for the people of Eastbourne and for the Council | :56:19. | :56:21. | |
at Eastbourne, but more importantly it's actually | :56:22. | :56:23. | |
about having people on your side. | :56:24. | :56:24. | |
I think the mistake that has been made is twofold. | :56:25. | :56:27. | |
First, there should have been more thorough consultation, | :56:28. | :56:29. | |
rather than what has now been delivered. | :56:30. | :56:35. | |
Secondly, to conflate the idea that a capital receipt can actually | :56:36. | :56:40. | |
prevent services being delivered or increase services being delivered | :56:41. | :56:42. | |
At the end of the day, they can actually provide more | :56:43. | :56:51. | |
capital expenditure but you cannot spend it on services. | :56:52. | :56:55. | |
So you can only spend the money once. | :56:56. | :56:57. | |
It sounds like you are more worried about the way they have gone | :56:58. | :57:00. | |
about it than the sale of the land itself? | :57:01. | :57:02. | |
At the end of the day, we are all put in difficult | :57:03. | :57:05. | |
positions at times and we have difficult decisions to make, | :57:06. | :57:08. | |
so I do not shy away from that, but I just think it is the way | :57:09. | :57:11. | |
that they have gone about it, but more importantly they need | :57:12. | :57:14. | |
to listen to the people that they represent, | :57:15. | :57:16. | |
because you do not get elected by ignoring them. | :57:17. | :57:18. | |
That is what they say they will do when they get the results | :57:19. | :57:21. | |
One of the Conservative councillors was saying that the council had put | :57:22. | :57:25. | |
out a one-sided newsletter, that they had not quite | :57:26. | :57:27. | |
explain to people both sides of the argument. | :57:28. | :57:29. | |
Are you concerned about the way these things are conducted, | :57:30. | :57:32. | |
the way the public are engaged with in situations like this? | :57:33. | :57:34. | |
Councils are supposed to undertake consultation on a range of things, | :57:35. | :57:37. | |
and they should have a department that is perfectly capable | :57:38. | :57:39. | |
of undertaking this without mishap, and they should certainly, | :57:40. | :57:42. | |
before they go out and undertake something of this scale | :57:43. | :57:44. | |
and impact on the community, consults fairly widely. | :57:45. | :57:48. | |
But we should not necessarily write off councils disposing of assets, | :57:49. | :57:51. | |
certainly with funding as tight as it is at the moment, | :57:52. | :57:54. | |
with grants disappearing entirely over the next couple of years | :57:55. | :57:56. | |
and not being able to put up council tax more than 2%, | :57:57. | :57:59. | |
which we don't want to have to do anyway, there's got to be a way | :58:00. | :58:03. | |
of squaring the circle, and it's going to take a lot | :58:04. | :58:05. | |
of creativity from councils using assets to fund new investments | :58:06. | :58:08. | |
to generate the income they need to keep services going. | :58:09. | :58:10. | |
So, should anything be safe from being sold off? | :58:11. | :58:12. | |
Tilgate Park should certainly be saved. | :58:13. | :58:14. | |
There are plenty of places which we will protect, | :58:15. | :58:18. | |
but it is about being imaginative about what we have available. | :58:19. | :58:20. | |
We are investing in our parks at the moment. | :58:21. | :58:22. | |
And parks are slightly different to | :58:23. | :58:24. | |
the South Downs and the National Park area. | :58:25. | :58:26. | |
What then are you considering doing? Is there anything in Crawley | :58:27. | :58:29. | |
which has been similar, which has been controversial? | :58:30. | :58:33. | |
Controversy, not necessarily on this, but we are in the process | :58:34. | :58:37. | |
of using assets to generate an income, we are about to redevelop | :58:38. | :58:46. | |
our townhall site to provide low-carbon electricity and heat | :58:47. | :58:48. | |
A new townhall and a whole bunch of housing, including | :58:49. | :58:51. | |
The council have got to get creative, it's the only way we're | :58:52. | :58:57. | |
But consultation and bearing the public | :58:58. | :59:01. | |
in mind is going to be at the forefront of that. | :59:02. | :59:04. | |
If, Keith, Eastbourne decide not to sell the land | :59:05. | :59:07. | |
because of public opinion, without necessarily | :59:08. | :59:08. | |
be the right outcome, in your view? | :59:09. | :59:12. | |
That's why we are elected, at the end of the day we have | :59:13. | :59:15. | |
difficult decisions to make, and the elected members | :59:16. | :59:17. | |
of Eastbourne Borough Council will do that. | :59:18. | :59:19. | |
At the end of the day, you have a budget balance, | :59:20. | :59:24. | |
and you can't just think about this year, you actually have | :59:25. | :59:26. | |
As Peter says, you have to be creative, but equally | :59:27. | :59:30. | |
if the majority of people that you represent are against something | :59:31. | :59:34. | |
then you must be being told something | :59:35. | :59:37. | |
that you need to listen to. | :59:38. | :59:38. | |
Time for some of the other news you might have missed in 60 seconds. | :59:39. | :59:44. | |
The Federation of Small Businesses is urging the government to make | :59:45. | :59:47. | |
a decision on the proposed new Lower Thames Crossing | :59:48. | :59:49. | |
The organisation said the current Dartford Crossing | :59:50. | :59:56. | |
was under pressure from 50 million crossings a year. | :59:57. | :59:59. | |
The MP for Dartford said a decision would be taken in due course. | :00:00. | :00:05. | |
I'm optimistic that we will actually get a decision this month, | :00:06. | :00:07. | |
and it's important that we get the right decision, | :00:08. | :00:10. | |
As soon as we get that decision, then of course we can get | :00:11. | :00:16. | |
A study commissioned by the government has said | :00:17. | :00:20. | |
there is only a poor transport case for a second Brighton Main Line. | :00:21. | :00:23. | |
Campaigners have been urging ministers to consider building | :00:24. | :00:25. | |
a new railway line via Lewis and Upfield, but the report said | :00:26. | :00:30. | |
rise in demand could be met by improving the existing | :00:31. | :00:32. | |
And the headteacher of the The Skinners' School, | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
a grammar in Tunbridge Wells, is asking parents | :00:38. | :00:38. | |
to pay for new GCSE textbooks. | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
He says he can't afford to buy the new materials that are needed | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
It comes as schools across the South East complain | :00:44. | :00:49. | |
are complaining about budget cuts, it's schools as well. | :00:50. | :01:00. | |
Is it fair, Peter Lamb, to charge parents for textbooks? | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
It's certainly not fair, it certainly discriminates | :01:03. | :01:04. | |
against those who've got less income. | :01:05. | :01:06. | |
Taking the broader point here, which I think people have not | :01:07. | :01:09. | |
realised, is we keep talking about hitting a crisis point, | :01:10. | :01:11. | |
and we're going to hit the crisis point - | :01:12. | :01:16. | |
we're beyond the crisis point, these things were all coming | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
in under the radar, we've already passed the point where are services | :01:20. | :01:21. | |
Is it fair to charge for books, Keith Glazier? | :01:22. | :01:25. | |
Fairer school funding is something that we are all anxious about, | :01:26. | :01:28. | |
If the school feel that they are able to do that again | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
and get the people to pay, that's great, because I understand, | :01:33. | :01:34. | |
as Peter said, not everybody is in that position. | :01:35. | :01:36. | |
And do you agree, yes or no, we're beyond crisis point when it | :01:37. | :01:40. | |
I think it's still very, very difficult to deliver. | :01:41. | :01:44. | |
You're not going as far as Peter. Thank you very much. | :01:45. | :01:47. | |
That we got time for from the South East this week. | :01:48. | :01:49. | |
need Crossrail as well. We will be poring over the entrails of the | :01:50. | :01:53. | |
budget next week. Thank you very much indeed. | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
So the Brexit Bill is back in the Lords next week and the Lib Dems | :02:00. | :02:04. | |
They've ordered pizza and camp beds to encourage their peers | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
to keep talking all night, only to be told by the Lord's | :02:08. | :02:10. | |
authorities that their plans fall foul of health and safety laws. | :02:11. | :02:17. | |
Laws that they probably voted for. What did you make of David | :02:18. | :02:25. | |
Liddington's remarks on the Lords amendments, particularly not just | :02:26. | :02:29. | |
the one on EU nationals, but on what is regarded as a meaningful vote at | :02:30. | :02:34. | |
the end of the process? Let's be clear, as ministers like to say, the | :02:35. | :02:40. | |
meaningful vote vote is by far the biggest thing that will happen in | :02:41. | :02:45. | |
Parliament. It puts EU citizens into a tiny corner. It will decide not | :02:46. | :02:51. | |
just who is going to have the final say on this, but who the EU is | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
negotiating with. Is it directly with Theresa May or is it with | :02:56. | :03:00. | |
Parliament? Who will decide the shape of Brexit, Parliament or | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
Theresa May? The Lords amendment is just the first chapter. They have | :03:06. | :03:12. | |
voiced Theresa May to give them a veto on everything she does, and | :03:13. | :03:15. | |
there is a possible chance in the Commons could uphold this amendment. | :03:16. | :03:22. | |
The meaningful vote amendment? The meaningful vote amendment. But is it | :03:23. | :03:28. | |
a meaningful vote if the choice is to either back the deal or crash out | :03:29. | :03:35. | |
of the deal? That is what the remain supporting MPs or hardline people | :03:36. | :03:39. | |
who want to remain fear. What they want is the power to be able to send | :03:40. | :03:43. | |
Theresa May back to the negotiating table. Why is that anathema to many | :03:44. | :03:50. | |
Brexit supporters? They believed it would crucially and critically | :03:51. | :03:54. | |
undermine Theresa May's negotiating hand and also create a long period | :03:55. | :04:00. | |
of uncertainty for business. There is already great uncertainty and | :04:01. | :04:03. | |
this could extend it. The government's position is in there | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
was a proper, meaningful vote which Parliament could reject what was on | :04:09. | :04:14. | |
offer, that would be an incentive to the EU to give us a bad deal? I | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
think that is the fear. If you are saying to the people you are | :04:20. | :04:23. | |
negotiating with that that is another authority and Theresa May | :04:24. | :04:27. | |
will have to go back and have all of this approved, I think it would have | :04:28. | :04:31. | |
a very significant undermining effect on her negotiating hand. | :04:32. | :04:38. | |
Things change from day to day. We are talking about 2019 and 2018 at | :04:39. | :04:43. | |
the earliest, but if the government lost a vote on the Brexit deal, | :04:44. | :04:51. | |
would he not have to call in someone else? That is why the vote will be | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
meaningful even if the amendment on this meaningful vote will be lost. | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
You cannot do a deal on something as historic as Brexit and have | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
Parliament against you. So, whatever form this vote takes, whenever it | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
happens, it will be hugely meaningful. Whatever label that is | :05:13. | :05:22. | |
given and if she lost it she would call a general election. She could | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
not impose it. To call a general election now you need a majority of | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
MPs which she will not have, so maybe she will not get her election | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
after all. It would be very unlike Labour not to vote for an election. | :05:38. | :05:40. | |
It would be very unlike Labour not to vote for an election. | :05:41. | :05:43. | |
The elections to Stormont have given a boost to the republicans and put | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
the long term status of Northern Ireland in some doubt. | :05:48. | :05:49. | |
Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams spoke to reporters | :05:50. | :05:51. | |
Yesterday was in many, many ways a watershed election, | :05:52. | :05:57. | |
and we have just started a process of reflecting what it all means, | :05:58. | :06:00. | |
but clearly the union's majority in the Assembly has been ended, | :06:01. | :06:16. | |
and the notion of a permanent or a perpetual unionist majority | :06:17. | :06:19. | |
Is he right? Is this a watershed? The nationalist vote in the assembly | :06:20. | :06:31. | |
will now come to 39 and the Unionists 38. It is only one member, | :06:32. | :06:37. | |
but it is significant. This is a very serious moment and because of | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
everything else going on with Donald Trump and Brexit it is taking a | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
while for people here to realise just how significant this is. | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
Talking to someone who only recently left a significant role in Northern | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
Ireland politics last night, they said they were very worried about | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
what this means. It is likely there will be a call for some kind of | :07:00. | :07:02. | |
international figure to chair the talks to try and see if there is a | :07:03. | :07:08. | |
way of everybody working together. All sides will probably try to | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
extract more money from the Treasury, but it is a very dangerous | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
moment. Should we regard Michelle O'Neill, who has replaced Mr | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
McGuinness as the leader, it is she the First Minister death probably | :07:21. | :07:29. | |
not quite. An interesting thought. Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
a fascinating concept in itself. But there are are still a large amount | :07:36. | :07:41. | |
of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein what they need. But what effect does | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
this have on the legacy of the prosecutions and the great | :07:46. | :07:48. | |
witchhunts which the British Government has vowed to end. There | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
is a majority left on the Stormont assembly to end those. But some | :07:54. | :08:00. | |
would keep them going for time continuing, which is a headache for | :08:01. | :08:06. | |
Theresa May. You have now got 27 Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
SDLP bumps up the numbers a little bit. You have got the British | :08:12. | :08:17. | |
Government transfixed with Brexit which has huge implications for the | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
border between North and South in Ireland, and the Irish government is | :08:22. | :08:28. | |
pretty wavering as well and if there is an election there, Sinn Fein | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
could do well in the Dublin parliament as well. There are a lot | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
of moving pieces. There are and there is a danger that we look at | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
everything through the prism of Brexit, but I found Friday and this | :08:41. | :08:46. | |
weekend fascinating. Theresa May and Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is | :08:47. | :08:49. | |
framing Brexit entirely through an argument to have a second referendum | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
on independence which she wants to hold it she possibly can. And the | :08:54. | :08:58. | |
Irish situation with the prospect of a hard border with Northern Ireland | :08:59. | :09:07. | |
voting majority to remain, quite a substantial majority, again a few of | :09:08. | :09:16. | |
the instability at the moment. That is on both sides. We will be keeping | :09:17. | :09:18. | |
We will be keeping an eye on it for sure. | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations | :09:23. | :09:24. | |
that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered | :09:25. | :09:26. | |
his phones to be tapped during the election campaign. | :09:27. | :09:29. | |
"Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama | :09:30. | :09:32. | |
had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory. | :09:33. | :09:35. | |
I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is. | :09:36. | :09:49. | |
He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate. | :09:50. | :09:51. | |
"How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very | :09:52. | :09:58. | |
The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy | :09:59. | :10:11. | |
election process, but now it is sacred. | :10:12. | :10:12. | |
You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are | :10:13. | :10:25. | |
going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the | :10:31. | :10:33. | |
veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama | :10:34. | :10:40. | |
and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next. | :10:41. | :10:47. | |
Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes, | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will | :10:53. | :10:56. | |
explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian | :10:57. | :11:09. | |
and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also | :11:19. | :11:26. | |
be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start | :11:35. | :11:40. | |
tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my | :11:41. | :11:45. | |
theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad | :11:50. | :11:56. | |
lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician | :11:57. | :12:01. | |
now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so | :12:20. | :12:24. | |
frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for | :12:25. | :12:27. | |
manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more | :12:32. | :12:35. | |
tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly | :12:44. | :12:51. | |
Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would | :12:52. | :12:56. | |
not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the | :13:11. | :13:13. | |
Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never | :13:14. | :13:23. | |
contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you | :13:28. | :13:34. | |
not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today. | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual. | :13:40. | :13:42. | |
The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two. | :13:43. | :13:45. | |
But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:46. | :14:34. | |
The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest. | :14:35. | :14:37. | |
We're right in the middle of the action. | :14:38. | :14:41. | |
The remarkable story of British photography. | :14:42. | :14:46. |