02/04/2017 Sunday Politics South East


02/04/2017

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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

:00:41.:00:43.

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

:00:44.:00:48.

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

:00:49.:00:53.

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

:00:54.:00:57.

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

:00:58.:01:02.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

:01:03.:01:05.

what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?

:01:06.:01:08.

And in the South East, as the Prime Mininster

:01:09.:01:10.

begins her Brexit negotiations, we go out and about.

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What do you think her priorities should be?

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changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from

:01:19.:01:21.

there constituencies. And with me, as always,

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the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

:01:30.:01:31.

Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be

:01:32.:01:34.

tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause

:01:35.:01:39.

22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something

:01:40.:01:42.

of a shock. The guidelines propose

:01:43.:01:44.

that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade

:01:45.:01:49.

deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted

:01:50.:01:52.

strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away

:01:53.:01:58.

in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,

:01:59.:02:00.

Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look

:02:01.:02:06.

after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected

:02:07.:02:12.

all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar

:02:13.:02:17.

cannot be changed without the agreement of the people

:02:18.:02:19.

of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not

:02:20.:02:22.

want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,

:02:23.:02:24.

in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying

:02:25.:02:27.

that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is

:02:28.:02:39.

this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.

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Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again

:02:45.:02:48.

and again is that at different points individual countries can

:02:49.:02:53.

start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you

:02:54.:03:00.

have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to

:03:01.:03:04.

be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit

:03:05.:03:11.

after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is

:03:12.:03:19.

triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto

:03:20.:03:23.

it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald

:03:24.:03:28.

Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to

:03:29.:03:34.

say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual

:03:35.:03:37.

countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking

:03:38.:03:43.

to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I

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think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number

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10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter

:03:59.:04:01.

of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal

:04:02.:04:06.

the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things

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looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed

:04:12.:04:16.

over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this

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incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there

:04:21.:04:26.

could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,

:04:27.:04:31.

it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going

:04:32.:04:35.

entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar

:04:36.:04:39.

got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the

:04:40.:04:45.

Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not

:04:46.:04:50.

see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of

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difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to

:04:54.:04:58.

Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.

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For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power

:05:04.:05:09.

grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are

:05:10.:05:14.

not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials

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after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it

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is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very

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much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is

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still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the

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next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly

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empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has

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got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They

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will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy

:05:57.:06:01.

about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so

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much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been

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absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!

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Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now

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changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of

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months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking

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up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,

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the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth

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journey to the exit door? Or can we expect

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a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back

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control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually

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involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting

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in a car. It is only a few hundred metres

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from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start

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of a much longer one and we do not know exactly

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where we will all end up. This is a historic moment

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from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,

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sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's

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ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset

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to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,

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hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it

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all meant for the So, here it is, a copy

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of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's

:07:36.:07:42.

proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal

:07:43.:07:48.

at the same time. It also mentioned the word

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"security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement

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would mean cooperation in the fight against crime

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and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got

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to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European

:08:00.:08:03.

policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access

:08:04.:08:09.

information in the same way as we would as a member,

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so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate

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a continuing relationship that enables us to work together

:08:17.:08:18.

in the way that we have. That night, the

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Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad

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Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,

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having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is

:08:30.:08:32.

actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers

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suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool

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and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area

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if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,

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as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we

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will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement

:08:58.:09:00.

of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other

:09:01.:09:03.

business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,

:09:04.:09:06.

outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British

:09:07.:09:09.

law to change later, It is not without its critics

:09:10.:09:11.

but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,

:09:12.:09:16.

it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek

:09:17.:09:18.

a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,

:09:19.:09:25.

we are doing so from a position where we have the same

:09:26.:09:27.

standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver

:09:28.:09:29.

on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law

:09:30.:09:35.

in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small

:09:36.:09:38.

issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle

:09:39.:09:45.

with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said

:09:46.:09:48.

they were not allowed Great(!)

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so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been

:09:51.:09:58.

a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,

:09:59.:10:00.

Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting

:10:01.:10:04.

and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines

:10:05.:10:07.

for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,

:10:08.:10:13.

we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss

:10:14.:10:16.

the framework for our Starting parallel talks

:10:17.:10:19.

on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,

:10:20.:10:22.

will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not

:10:23.:10:31.

pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is

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already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get

:10:36.:10:42.

the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set

:10:43.:10:45.

elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions

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are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is

:10:49.:10:58.

celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent

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by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a

:11:05.:11:12.

future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient

:11:13.:11:16.

progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this

:11:17.:11:23.

phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence

:11:24.:11:29.

and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of

:11:30.:11:34.

nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that

:11:35.:11:38.

might be reached on things talked about early on will be very

:11:39.:11:44.

provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the

:11:45.:11:48.

sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.

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Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk

:11:53.:11:57.

of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not

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remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.

:12:01.:12:08.

A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said

:12:09.:12:12.

that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see

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how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are

:12:19.:12:24.

wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see

:12:25.:12:30.

what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,

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there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years

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and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept

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that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels

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is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to

:12:50.:12:57.

make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a

:12:58.:13:02.

really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,

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speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.

:13:09.:13:11.

But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I

:13:12.:13:21.

cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the

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negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.

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The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years

:13:32.:13:34.

after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must

:13:35.:13:39.

remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of

:13:40.:13:43.

the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It

:13:44.:13:48.

depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are

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getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any

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judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you

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know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And

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then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is

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something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this

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stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,

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and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer

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to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in

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its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like

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yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they

:14:39.:14:43.

will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do

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not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try

:14:47.:14:50.

another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a

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comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints

:14:54.:14:59.

on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept

:15:00.:15:07.

that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We

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will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own

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decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the

:15:17.:15:23.

negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in

:15:24.:15:28.

the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.

:15:29.:15:32.

No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free

:15:33.:15:38.

trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very

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important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of

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the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without

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having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I

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think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of

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the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no

:16:09.:16:12.

deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will

:16:13.:16:18.

get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,

:16:19.:16:22.

because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But

:16:23.:16:30.

it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the

:16:31.:16:34.

world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would

:16:35.:16:39.

be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with

:16:40.:16:43.

everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to

:16:44.:16:47.

get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the

:16:48.:16:52.

interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned

:16:53.:16:56.

in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair

:16:57.:17:00.

government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any

:17:01.:17:06.

free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British

:17:07.:17:12.

government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it

:17:13.:17:16.

absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this

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week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is

:17:24.:17:26.

halfway across the world to protect another small group of British

:17:27.:17:29.

people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am

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absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the

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same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.

:17:40.:17:50.

This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about

:17:51.:17:52.

sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any

:17:53.:17:55.

free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to

:17:56.:17:58.

Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The

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British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests

:18:05.:18:10.

of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000

:18:11.:18:14.

people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important

:18:15.:18:18.

Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will

:18:19.:18:24.

be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including

:18:25.:18:28.

free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this

:18:29.:18:29.

morning. Although sometimes it seems

:18:30.:18:32.

like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening

:18:33.:18:34.

other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,

:18:35.:18:36.

there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot

:18:37.:18:39.

up for grabs. Local elections take place

:18:40.:18:42.

on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections

:18:43.:18:45.

in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,

:18:46.:18:50.

usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually

:18:51.:18:57.

fares better are not Six regions of England will also

:18:58.:19:03.

hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,

:19:04.:19:07.

and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,

:19:08.:19:10.

with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands

:19:11.:19:17.

among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32

:19:18.:19:19.

councils are being contested, many of them affected

:19:20.:19:22.

by boundary changes. Since these seats were last

:19:23.:19:24.

contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each

:19:25.:19:27.

of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected

:19:28.:19:32.

in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,

:19:33.:19:39.

though independent candidates currently hold

:19:40.:19:40.

a quarter of council seats. According to the latest

:19:41.:19:43.

calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,

:19:44.:19:45.

the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,

:19:46.:19:50.

despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England

:19:51.:19:53.

looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning

:19:54.:19:59.

100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,

:20:00.:20:02.

predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system

:20:03.:20:07.

usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,

:20:08.:20:09.

the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats

:20:10.:20:12.

they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high

:20:13.:20:14.

water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections

:20:15.:20:23.

suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest

:20:24.:20:26.

gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's

:20:27.:20:28.

very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice

:20:29.:20:31.

of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start

:20:32.:20:38.

with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?

:20:39.:20:43.

Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part

:20:44.:20:47.

rural England. The only control three of the council they are

:20:48.:20:51.

defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly

:20:52.:20:57.

a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion

:20:58.:21:00.

polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the

:21:01.:21:04.

position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring

:21:05.:21:16.

of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking

:21:17.:21:18.

about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50

:21:19.:21:21.

losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council

:21:22.:21:24.

areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

:21:25.:21:28.

could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council

:21:29.:21:32.

control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,

:21:33.:21:36.

what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the

:21:37.:21:40.

big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of

:21:41.:21:44.

the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local

:21:45.:21:47.

by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and

:21:48.:21:56.

in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a

:21:57.:21:58.

Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of

:21:59.:22:02.

ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is

:22:03.:22:05.

uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they

:22:06.:22:10.

do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do

:22:11.:22:13.

terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing

:22:14.:22:17.

relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely

:22:18.:22:22.

to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in

:22:23.:22:53.

the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour

:22:54.:22:56.

Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We

:22:57.:22:58.

are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the

:22:59.:23:01.

mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general

:23:02.:23:04.

election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in

:23:05.:23:06.

the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general

:23:07.:23:09.

election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the

:23:10.:23:11.

West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a

:23:12.:23:14.

headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to

:23:15.:23:16.

lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for

:23:17.:23:18.

their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his

:23:19.:23:22.

party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty

:23:23.:23:28.

dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.

:23:29.:23:31.

Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always

:23:32.:23:37.

remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.

:23:38.:23:44.

Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.

:23:45.:23:49.

The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP

:23:50.:23:55.

will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is

:23:56.:23:58.

happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion

:23:59.:24:03.

polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did

:24:04.:24:07.

relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather

:24:08.:24:12.

disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign

:24:13.:24:16.

of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP

:24:17.:24:24.

ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by

:24:25.:24:27.

double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently

:24:28.:24:31.

control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the

:24:32.:24:35.

question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative

:24:36.:24:39.

revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government

:24:40.:24:44.

by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of

:24:45.:24:48.

the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in

:24:49.:24:54.

the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose

:24:55.:24:57.

control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22

:24:58.:25:03.

local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose

:25:04.:25:07.

ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,

:25:08.:25:12.

labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff

:25:13.:25:17.

could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.

:25:18.:25:23.

Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour

:25:24.:25:25.

control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid

:25:26.:25:41.

Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in

:25:42.:25:43.

the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be

:25:44.:25:46.

judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion

:25:47.:25:48.

polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it

:25:49.:25:51.

affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect

:25:52.:25:58.

his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by

:25:59.:26:01.

this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and

:26:02.:26:06.

others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence

:26:07.:26:12.

and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some

:26:13.:26:17.

kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the

:26:18.:26:21.

argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12

:26:22.:26:28.

months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,

:26:29.:26:35.

up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some

:26:36.:26:39.

impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will

:26:40.:26:45.

mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it

:26:46.:26:51.

will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That

:26:52.:26:56.

is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive

:26:57.:27:01.

reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the

:27:02.:27:05.

fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she

:27:06.:27:08.

believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West

:27:09.:27:13.

who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were

:27:14.:27:16.

worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.

:27:17.:27:20.

The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got

:27:21.:27:24.

other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the

:27:25.:27:29.

success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says

:27:30.:27:33.

this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face

:27:34.:27:40.

before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a

:27:41.:27:45.

good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results

:27:46.:27:50.

will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem

:27:51.:28:11.

threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory

:28:12.:28:14.

party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried

:28:15.:28:16.

about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems

:28:17.:28:19.

because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve

:28:20.:28:21.

about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding

:28:22.:28:23.

repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think

:28:24.:28:26.

he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership

:28:27.:28:28.

contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to

:28:29.:28:33.

be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they

:28:34.:28:38.

were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,

:28:39.:28:44.

it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of

:28:45.:28:48.

self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.

:28:49.:28:50.

Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it

:28:51.:28:53.

Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew

:28:54.:28:56.

Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces

:28:57.:28:58.

It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the

:28:59.:29:03.

Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.

:29:04.:29:05.

If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.

:29:06.:29:09.

Labour is trying to do something much harder,

:29:10.:29:11.

which is to try and speak for the whole country,

:29:12.:29:14.

and by the way, that is another part of

:29:15.:29:16.

Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's

:29:17.:29:20.

Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,

:29:21.:29:26.

let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.

:29:27.:29:28.

By the way, there is more that unites Remainers

:29:29.:29:34.

and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common

:29:35.:29:36.

concerns about the way the country is run.

:29:37.:29:41.

Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

:29:42.:29:46.

Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on

:29:47.:29:51.

Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed

:29:52.:29:56.

Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms

:29:57.:30:02.

with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I

:30:03.:30:07.

campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I

:30:08.:30:11.

represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.

:30:12.:30:15.

Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky

:30:16.:30:20.

nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this

:30:21.:30:25.

democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant

:30:26.:30:33.

legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before

:30:34.:30:41.

Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I

:30:42.:30:47.

will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election

:30:48.:30:56.

date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across

:30:57.:30:59.

the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what

:31:00.:31:05.

Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We

:31:06.:31:09.

have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,

:31:10.:31:17.

your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we

:31:18.:31:24.

have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those

:31:25.:31:27.

types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies

:31:28.:31:31.

that decide general elections. The important places in the elections

:31:32.:31:37.

are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are

:31:38.:31:44.

marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well

:31:45.:31:48.

in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to

:31:49.:31:51.

campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who

:31:52.:31:59.

voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime

:32:00.:32:05.

Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen

:32:06.:32:10.

that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is

:32:11.:32:17.

important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the

:32:18.:32:22.

trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people

:32:23.:32:29.

who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for

:32:30.:32:33.

other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate

:32:34.:32:37.

that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am

:32:38.:32:42.

not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see

:32:43.:32:47.

online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to

:32:48.:32:52.

switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was

:32:53.:32:56.

not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our

:32:57.:33:02.

neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from

:33:03.:33:07.

voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among

:33:08.:33:15.

nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the

:33:16.:33:19.

mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,

:33:20.:33:25.

in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is

:33:26.:33:35.

less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond

:33:36.:33:40.

extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of

:33:41.:33:44.

elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate

:33:45.:33:50.

city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that

:33:51.:33:57.

of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an

:33:58.:34:09.

anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:10.:34:12.

from memory. We have not got elections in London but our

:34:13.:34:16.

elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...

:34:17.:34:27.

What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the

:34:28.:34:31.

opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it

:34:32.:34:37.

is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do

:34:38.:34:41.

well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,

:34:42.:34:48.

Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the

:34:49.:34:54.

general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?

:34:55.:35:00.

What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative

:35:01.:35:05.

garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me

:35:06.:35:08.

about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to

:35:09.:35:13.

you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people

:35:14.:35:17.

the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks

:35:18.:35:22.

so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements

:35:23.:35:29.

and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey

:35:30.:35:31.

was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education

:35:32.:35:36.

spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.

:35:37.:35:41.

Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the

:35:42.:35:45.

Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are

:35:46.:35:49.

working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does

:35:50.:35:54.

it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three

:35:55.:36:00.

times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a

:36:01.:36:04.

huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter

:36:05.:36:09.

and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in

:36:10.:36:17.

the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls

:36:18.:36:23.

are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of

:36:24.:36:28.

government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that

:36:29.:36:31.

the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years

:36:32.:36:35.

because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes

:36:36.:36:41.

this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault

:36:42.:36:46.

on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for

:36:47.:36:50.

government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading

:36:51.:36:55.

for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me

:36:56.:36:58.

have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an

:36:59.:37:02.

individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British

:37:03.:37:05.

people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are

:37:06.:37:09.

letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election

:37:10.:37:17.

question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an

:37:18.:37:22.

early election? The general election coordinator called for a general

:37:23.:37:27.

election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in

:37:28.:37:30.

staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the

:37:31.:37:35.

Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter

:37:36.:37:40.

having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the

:37:41.:37:44.

election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.

:37:45.:37:52.

Hi, I'm Natalie Graham and this is The Sunday Politics

:37:53.:38:07.

Coming up later, we have been out and about in Canterbury,

:38:08.:38:10.

And we have been asking people there what they think

:38:11.:38:14.

Joining me in the studio today are Peter Kyle,

:38:15.:38:17.

the Labour MP for Hove and Portslade, and Diane James,

:38:18.:38:20.

formerly of Ukip, but now sitting as an independent MEP for the

:38:21.:38:22.

South East. Welcome to you both.

:38:23.:38:29.

Now, Diane was briefly the leader of Ukip last year, for 18 days.

:38:30.:38:32.

She took everyone by surprise when she stood down,

:38:33.:38:34.

saying she "didn't have sufficient authority or support

:38:35.:38:36.

of her colleagues to implement what she thought was necessary".

:38:37.:38:38.

Since she left the party, its leader Paul Nuttall failed

:38:39.:38:41.

to win the Stoke by-election and, last week, the party's

:38:42.:38:43.

only MP Douglas Carswell followed Diane's lead,

:38:44.:38:47.

declaring himself an Independent last weekend.

:38:48.:38:52.

So, this is the first chance we have had to talk to you about all that.

:38:53.:38:55.

You said at the time it was personally and

:38:56.:38:59.

Do you regret standing as leader now?

:39:00.:39:02.

No, I do not regret standing as leader.

:39:03.:39:04.

I would have loved to have continued, but I made it very plain

:39:05.:39:07.

in my statement why I stood down, why I relinquished the leader-elect.

:39:08.:39:10.

Remember, I did not actually finalise everything.

:39:11.:39:12.

I would have loved to have continued,

:39:13.:39:16.

but it was not going to be possible and Ukip is now going to go on

:39:17.:39:20.

Again, it has been a few interesting months for the party

:39:21.:39:24.

At the time of your departure, Nigel Farage

:39:25.:39:28.

said your standing down was "an act of irrational selfishness".

:39:29.:39:30.

I met with Nigel only a couple of weeks ago, in Strasbourg.

:39:31.:39:39.

I understand why he said those words.

:39:40.:39:44.

Ukip is effectively his baby and he is very protective of it.

:39:45.:39:47.

He had hoped to hand over the mantle of leadership to me.

:39:48.:39:50.

There it is, in terms of his statement.

:39:51.:39:58.

Words are words and I am a much stronger person

:39:59.:40:01.

then having that sort of thing hurt me.

:40:02.:40:05.

You stood down as leader, but then decided to leave the party.

:40:06.:40:07.

Why do that? That is quite a different thing.

:40:08.:40:11.

Well, I think the issue for me was very much that I wanted

:40:12.:40:14.

Paul to have a fresh start and a fresh sea and,

:40:15.:40:19.

effectively, aa fresh environment to operate in as the new leader.

:40:20.:40:25.

He did not need me there in the background and, potentially,

:40:26.:40:28.

a lot of individuals, both in the media and members,

:40:29.:40:30.

such as those in the NEC, constantly saying,

:40:31.:40:32.

"Would Diane have done that? Would Nigel have done that?"

:40:33.:40:35.

He has got a very good relationship with Nigel.

:40:36.:40:39.

He did not need his predecessor there,

:40:40.:40:40.

almost haunting him, in the background.

:40:41.:40:43.

But again, he has had an interesting time ever since

:40:44.:40:45.

You described Ukip as an opposition party in waiting when you took

:40:46.:40:51.

It is not exactly like that now, now that it has lost its only MP,

:40:52.:40:59.

Is it a party in decline, now that you are on the outside?

:41:00.:41:07.

I do not think it is a party in decline.

:41:08.:41:09.

I actually spoke to the media quite a bit the day

:41:10.:41:12.

With all due respect to my colleague here

:41:13.:41:15.

from the House of Commons representatives of the Labour

:41:16.:41:17.

Party, I made the point that, for Labour to stop Paul,

:41:18.:41:20.

personally, to stop Paul Nuttall, the leader of a political

:41:21.:41:22.

opposition party, and to stop Ukip, it was worthwhile sacrificing

:41:23.:41:25.

Copeland, which I think the strategy was.

:41:26.:41:28.

As that is not in this area, we are not going to dwell on that.

:41:29.:41:34.

Are you saying losing was all part of the strategy?

:41:35.:41:40.

No, for Labour, it was all about stopping him in that

:41:41.:41:43.

Surely that is what by-elections are all about?

:41:44.:41:46.

But I feel I could explain, or give an explanation, as to why

:41:47.:41:51.

Paul and Ukip did not take that by-election.

:41:52.:41:53.

No, I don't think it is. No, I don't think it is.

:41:54.:41:58.

What I do believe is happening is an evolution, in terms

:41:59.:42:01.

If you go back to the Coalition, for example, the referendum result.

:42:02.:42:05.

You can look at the general election.

:42:06.:42:07.

And there is a need for an alternative political voice.

:42:08.:42:18.

If you go back to just this Tuesday, with some of the programming

:42:19.:42:21.

on the BBC, in particular, and Andrew Neil's programme,

:42:22.:42:23.

who would have thought that three political party leaders would

:42:24.:42:26.

have been interviewed after the Prime Minister

:42:27.:42:27.

Diane, your actions speak very differently to your words.

:42:28.:42:40.

You are talking about being an alternative political

:42:41.:42:42.

voice, but you cannot really do that being an independent.

:42:43.:42:44.

You have left to become an independent and the only

:42:45.:42:46.

Ukip MP has left to become an independent.

:42:47.:42:51.

All the people in leadership roles are moving away

:42:52.:42:52.

from the party, so how can you become an alternative voice?

:42:53.:42:55.

You say you want to be an alternative voice

:42:56.:42:57.

Well, thank you for the interruption.

:42:58.:43:00.

But let us look at what is happening, in terms of

:43:01.:43:03.

I don't think it is necessarily going to be political parties.

:43:04.:43:07.

Almost every, shall we say, political party, seems

:43:08.:43:09.

to have a shadow, in terms of the movement.

:43:10.:43:11.

are going to have amovement shadowing them.

:43:12.:43:19.

are going to have a movement shadowing them.

:43:20.:43:21.

I'll talk to Peter now about the nature of opposition.

:43:22.:43:23.

Whether or not Ukip look like an opposition party in waiting,

:43:24.:43:26.

there have been a few times recently when

:43:27.:43:27.

the Labour Party do not exactly like the official opposition.

:43:28.:43:30.

What it seems like is that the people

:43:31.:43:32.

holding the government's feet to the fire over a range of issues,

:43:33.:43:35.

whether it is national insurance contributions

:43:36.:43:36.

of fairer schools funding, is Conservative backbench MPs,

:43:37.:43:38.

We do live in very strange political times, but the Labour Party does

:43:39.:43:42.

We are a broad movement and we are a significant force, both in

:43:43.:43:48.

Parliament and up and down the country, running

:43:49.:43:49.

We are a serious political force and we are broadly moving in

:43:50.:43:56.

the direction of delivering fairness and that we are speaking up for...

:43:57.:44:01.

But Theresa May is not very scared of you, is she?

:44:02.:44:03.

She laughs when Jeremy Corbyn asks something at Prime

:44:04.:44:05.

She is more scared of her own backbenchers,

:44:06.:44:08.

you might argue, than the people sitting opposite.

:44:09.:44:17.

What I do agree with in your analysis, and I do want to

:44:18.:44:20.

be really open about this, is that we do live in very strange

:44:21.:44:24.

political times, in that the referendum was

:44:25.:44:25.

delivered because a very small number of MPs in the Tory party,

:44:26.:44:28.

in a governing party that had no majority at all,

:44:29.:44:31.

because it was in coalition, they basically

:44:32.:44:38.

bullied Cameron and Osborne into delivering the referendum.

:44:39.:44:40.

So, a small number of conservatives have a

:44:41.:44:42.

disproportionate impact on the way the government is acting

:44:43.:44:44.

That is the weirdness in British politics and political

:44:45.:44:47.

discourse right now. That is where the nub of it is.

:44:48.:44:50.

And what I find strange, if you don't mind me

:44:51.:44:53.

saying, is look at Gisela Stuart - a prominent Labour MP and prominent

:44:54.:44:56.

Six MPs out of 230. I would say that was unanimous.

:44:57.:45:02.

So, after months of debate and discussion, the government

:45:03.:45:07.

invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty this week,

:45:08.:45:09.

kick-starting talks on the terms of Brexit.

:45:10.:45:11.

So, as we embark on negotiations, what matters most to people

:45:12.:45:13.

Bhavani Vadde went to Canterbury, to gauge the mood.

:45:14.:45:17.

This medieval gatehouse used to mark the separation of Canterbury

:45:18.:45:20.

This week, the Prime Minister triggered the start of

:45:21.:45:26.

negotiations to another historic separation -

:45:27.:45:29.

that of Britain's divorce from the European Union.

:45:30.:45:32.

The Article 50 process is now underway.

:45:33.:45:34.

And in accordance with the wishes of the British people,

:45:35.:45:36.

the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union.

:45:37.:45:38.

This is an historic moment from which there can be no

:45:39.:45:41.

So, if they had the chance, what would voters in the South

:45:42.:45:52.

East say to Theresa May at this historic moment?

:45:53.:45:58.

Morning. Hi.

:45:59.:46:11.

So, in terms of the South East, what should the Prime Minister

:46:12.:46:20.

be prioritising in these talks with the EU?

:46:21.:46:24.

We are taking that question to the streets of Canterbury.

:46:25.:46:29.

The referendum result here closely mirrored the way

:46:30.:46:30.

So, what are people's thoughts this week?

:46:31.:46:37.

Well done, Mrs May! Well done!

:46:38.:46:43.

None of the politicians know what they are doing.

:46:44.:46:45.

The fisheries have had a very hard time of it from Europe.

:46:46.:46:51.

They just need clarification, to get their fishing fields back again.

:46:52.:46:57.

Please let me feel secure and let me finish my

:46:58.:47:04.

Well, I would say, "Theresa, go ahead."

:47:05.:47:10.

She has triggered Article 50 this week.

:47:11.:47:23.

Is this not important for the South East?

:47:24.:47:25.

This is quite a rich part of the world.

:47:26.:47:27.

You can see in the street today, thousands of tourists come

:47:28.:47:30.

here, spending money, in Canterbury. Absolutely no difference.

:47:31.:47:34.

She is saying she's going to be making this deal for everybody.

:47:35.:47:37.

But I bet she is not going to make it for everybody.

:47:38.:47:40.

It will be just for the 'Euro-septics'.

:47:41.:47:45.

You have got to sort out the ports, Theresa, OK?

:47:46.:47:47.

There's a lot of agriculture around here.

:47:48.:47:53.

There is a lot of Polish, Latvian - Eastern European people.

:47:54.:47:56.

When it comes to all these people not being allowed in, the farmers

:47:57.:47:59.

The notion that may be harder in the future to travel

:48:00.:48:05.

to the Continent and live on the Continent is a bit

:48:06.:48:08.

So, that is the word on the street, and this politics professor,

:48:09.:48:12.

who teaches in Canterbury, believes that, amongst other things,

:48:13.:48:14.

the issues of border security, what will replace

:48:15.:48:16.

the Common Agricultural Policy and immigration will be key

:48:17.:48:18.

I think one of the things MPs in the South East have to make

:48:19.:48:27.

clear is that there are, sort of, collective

:48:28.:48:29.

South East interests which are different from the

:48:30.:48:31.

Absolutely crucially, it does have this border aspect and

:48:32.:48:40.

it does bear a lot of the consequences of whatever

:48:41.:48:42.

the relationship is with France, for example,

:48:43.:48:44.

with what we have in place, for instance, with regard to

:48:45.:48:47.

The people we spoke to in Canterbury still seem polarised, even though

:48:48.:48:53.

the formal process of leaving the EU has now started.

:48:54.:48:55.

I will ask you first, Peter, how do you feel

:48:56.:49:08.

I really want to get stuck into this debate,

:49:09.:49:13.

because there are massive issues at stake.

:49:14.:49:15.

The first priority for me is that we make sure we hold

:49:16.:49:19.

to government's feet to the fire on trade.

:49:20.:49:21.

There is no institutional memory in our country

:49:22.:49:25.

any more of trading with the EU outside of the EU.

:49:26.:49:27.

Last year, we had massive tailbacks trying to

:49:28.:49:33.

The conservative estimate is that there will be five times

:49:34.:49:38.

more border crossings once we leave the single market.

:49:39.:49:40.

The government has promised that what comes next

:49:41.:49:42.

and I am quoting verbatim - "exactly the same as we have now".

:49:43.:49:51.

They have to deliver on that, because the stakes are incredibly

:49:52.:49:54.

high for our economy here, particularly in the South East,

:49:55.:49:56.

Diane James, I will ask you the same question.

:49:57.:50:01.

How did you feel when Article 50 was finally triggered?

:50:02.:50:04.

I am pleased, but I am almost rather anxious,

:50:05.:50:06.

in a way, because the debate that is starting is very much

:50:07.:50:11.

more of Project Fear, particularly from

:50:12.:50:15.

the EU at the moment. Project Revenge, Project Penalise.

:50:16.:50:18.

Penalise the UK for even having the temerity

:50:19.:50:19.

Is that not what you are accusing Peter of when he raises concerns?

:50:20.:50:24.

I have looked at the six points that the Labour Party have

:50:25.:50:32.

announced, in terms of, if you like, their checks -

:50:33.:50:34.

I looked at some of them and I thought,

:50:35.:50:39.

well, it ignores the UK's acknowledged lead on

:50:40.:50:41.

There are other aspects for me that show clearly that

:50:42.:50:49.

the Labour Party is committed to remaining in the European Union

:50:50.:50:52.

and will not be supporting the government.

:50:53.:50:54.

That raises another question for me, which is what are my Labour MEP

:50:55.:50:57.

colleagues going to be doing in Brussels?

:50:58.:50:59.

Are they going to be siding with the EU, rather than

:51:00.:51:01.

Everything you have said is the politics of grievance.

:51:02.:51:07.

Now, it is your job to go ahead and deliver it.

:51:08.:51:12.

You cannot sit here and say, we have triggered this

:51:13.:51:14.

divorce, we want the other party to sit back and roll to one side and

:51:15.:51:18.

Of course they're going to negotiate heart. I expect you as a pioneer of

:51:19.:51:39.

the position we are endowed not to sit here and complain. I am not

:51:40.:51:49.

complaining. I am criticising the positioning the European Union has

:51:50.:51:58.

taken up until now. That we are going to institute thesis and more

:51:59.:52:04.

checks for people crossing the Channel. These are the exact same

:52:05.:52:10.

threats that we have made. This was not mentioned that the Labour Party

:52:11.:52:21.

have said. It is not even something they can agree on. If we make big

:52:22.:52:33.

promises to the public that leaving the United Kingdom -- European Union

:52:34.:52:37.

will make big changes to immigration, to fisheries. The

:52:38.:52:47.

government have said they did not want to restrict the labour going to

:52:48.:52:54.

our economy. The majority of that comes from and with the European

:52:55.:53:02.

Union. They did say last week immigration local up-and-down

:53:03.:53:10.

according to our economic needs. It is a clear message of what people

:53:11.:53:19.

accept is the issue of control. I am not a member of the Conservative

:53:20.:53:29.

Party. What I want to see is a programme which interacts with

:53:30.:53:35.

sectors of industry to actually resolve the numbers we need, the

:53:36.:53:41.

expertise we need and the amount of seasonal workers we need. If the

:53:42.:53:49.

public understand that, I think the numbers then start to dilute. We are

:53:50.:53:58.

going to stick with Brexit. As the Brexit negotiations progress,

:53:59.:54:00.

they will be scrutinised in detail by the public,

:54:01.:54:03.

MPs, and experts from all In Parliament, a special

:54:04.:54:05.

Select Committee has been set up to look in detail at the work

:54:06.:54:08.

being done by the government Their first report was due to be

:54:09.:54:11.

published this week, but has been delayed,

:54:12.:54:15.

after a group of MPs walked out because, in their view,

:54:16.:54:17.

the tone of the report One of those MPs is

:54:18.:54:20.

the Conservative, Maria Caulfield. She joins us now from Newhaven

:54:21.:54:23.

in her constituency. So, what happened at that meeting?

:54:24.:54:25.

Did you storm out? The committee has already published

:54:26.:54:48.

two reports. We asked the government to produce a white paper over the

:54:49.:54:52.

negotiations with the European Union. A second report has called

:54:53.:55:05.

for the likes of European nationals to be Peter Wrekenton guaranteed. We

:55:06.:55:13.

have produced two reports. Both of has seen action. We have got the

:55:14.:55:21.

third due out. That is looking at the White Paper produced in

:55:22.:55:28.

scrutinising, so I cannot reap report on alert at the moment. It

:55:29.:55:35.

was just the speculation as to whether you had walked out. This is

:55:36.:55:39.

just the beginning, so to do that at the stage does not board well. Most

:55:40.:55:48.

of meetings are in public. The reports can be read as well. I

:55:49.:55:56.

cannot comment on Private meetings within the committee and the

:55:57.:56:03.

discussions before we produce the report. We want the MPs to come

:56:04.:56:10.

together to hold the government to account to get the best possible

:56:11.:56:15.

deal for the United Kingdom. I can confirm that the third report will

:56:16.:56:21.

be published on Tuesday. You have been talking to people within the

:56:22.:56:33.

constituency. Are you concerned that people will be disappointed with the

:56:34.:56:36.

negotiations? I do not think they will be disappointed. We want the

:56:37.:56:48.

government to make a stand on the status of the European Union

:56:49.:56:54.

nationals living of and we want a commitment on alert. We will be

:56:55.:56:59.

pushing to make sure that the British farming and fishing sectors

:57:00.:57:08.

are supported. We also have a lot of people working in education and

:57:09.:57:17.

universities. There is a favourite very diverse range of people with in

:57:18.:57:21.

this constituency. That is why I will be holding a number of clinics

:57:22.:57:27.

for people to come and express their concerns and their wishes to make

:57:28.:57:32.

sure that the is heard. Thank you for joining us. You really remain MP

:57:33.:57:51.

any remain constituency. Hope all you represent your constituency? Is

:57:52.:57:54.

it your job to frustrate the government? I think we have to go

:57:55.:58:07.

through all this old legislation. These are very complicated. People

:58:08.:58:17.

are desperately worried that the biggest export market is about to

:58:18.:58:22.

disappear. We have to be really careful. We need to understand the

:58:23.:58:29.

consequences of everything before we do it. I just want to make sure we

:58:30.:58:35.

do it right. Diane, in practical terms, though that you Ukip does not

:58:36.:58:45.

even have an MP, who do they hold the government fee to the fire? If

:58:46.:58:56.

people were to compare the six points which came from Ukip, which

:58:57.:59:10.

were much more realistic. But they cannot put any pressure in

:59:11.:59:16.

Parliament on personal MPs. I appreciate that. But they still

:59:17.:59:19.

think they have to be listened to. And now it is time for some

:59:20.:59:24.

of the other news you may have missed in Sixty Seconds,

:59:25.:59:28.

with Rajdeep Sandhu. A property mogul is being

:59:29.:59:29.

investigated by Kent Police and the Equality and Human Rights

:59:30.:59:31.

Commission over Fergus Wilson, who owns hundreds

:59:32.:59:33.

of buy-to-let properties in Kent said he did not want "coloured

:59:34.:59:37.

people renting his homes He says it is an economic decision,

:59:38.:59:39.

based on cleaning costs. At the end of the day,

:59:40.:59:43.

it is up to me who goes The Equality and Human

:59:44.:59:46.

Rights Commission said his remarks were "truly

:59:47.:59:51.

disgusting and unlawful". A cash-strapped primary school

:59:52.:59:52.

is asking parents to donate St John's Primary School

:59:53.:59:55.

in Crowborough held a non-uniform Instead of donating to charity,

:59:56.:59:58.

pupils were asked to bring The headteacher said schools

:59:59.:00:02.

were under huge financial strain. A report by the Chief Inspector

:00:03.:00:09.

of Prisons says there has been an increase in people

:00:10.:00:11.

being detained by Sussex Police It says limited access to hospital

:00:12.:00:13.

beds result in too many vulnerable Sussex Police says their focus

:00:14.:00:17.

is on keeping people safe. That is all we have got time

:00:18.:00:29.

for from the South East this week. My thanks to our guests for today,

:00:30.:00:32.

Diane James and Peter Kyle. We are off air for a couple of

:00:33.:00:35.

weeks, as Parliament is in recess. We will be back after Easter,

:00:36.:00:39.

with all the political news and chat in the South East.

:00:40.:00:41.

Bye for now. So, what will be the effect

:00:42.:01:05.

of new tax and benefit changes Will the Government's grand

:01:06.:01:07.

trade tour reap benefits? And are the Lib Dems really

:01:08.:01:11.

going to replace Labour, To answer that last question,

:01:12.:01:13.

I'm joined by from Salford by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair

:01:14.:01:26.

Carmichael. Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems

:01:27.:01:37.

will replace Labour. How long will it take? We will have to wait and

:01:38.:01:43.

see. Anyone who thinks you can predict the future is engaged in a

:01:44.:01:50.

dodgy game. I have been campaigning with the Liberal Democrats in

:01:51.:01:53.

Manchester... You must not mention... You know the by-election

:01:54.:02:01.

rules. It is only an illustration. Across false ways of the country,

:02:02.:02:05.

the Liberal Democrats are back in business -- across whole swathes of

:02:06.:02:14.

the country. Part of the reason why we are getting a good response is

:02:15.:02:18.

because the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a

:02:19.:02:25.

self-destructive path. Even if you do pretty well in the local

:02:26.:02:28.

elections, it you have to make up lost ground from the time you did

:02:29.:02:33.

very well in previous times, you used to have 4700 councillors. It

:02:34.:02:39.

will take you a long while to get back to that. You will get no

:02:40.:02:43.

argument from me that we have a mountain to climb. What I'm telling

:02:44.:02:48.

you is, and if this is not just in this round of elections, it is in

:02:49.:02:52.

the other by-elections in places like Richmond, and in by-elections

:02:53.:02:57.

write the length and breadth of the country since last June, the Liberal

:02:58.:03:03.

Democrats are taking seats from the Labour Party under Conservative

:03:04.:03:06.

Party, and not just in Brexit phobic areas. Not just in Remain areas. But

:03:07.:03:13.

in places like Sunderland as well which voted very heavily for Brexit.

:03:14.:03:19.

In fact, that vote was in large part as well a protest against the way in

:03:20.:03:25.

which the Labour Party really has taken these areas for granted over

:03:26.:03:30.

the years. That is why the ground is fertile for us. In the local

:03:31.:03:33.

elections which is what we are discussing today, why would anybody

:03:34.:03:39.

vote for the Liberal Democrats if they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren

:03:40.:03:46.

has said he wants to reverse works. If you are Brexit supporter and you

:03:47.:03:52.

are considering how to cast your vote, first of all, I think you will

:03:53.:03:56.

be looking at the quality of representation you can get for your

:03:57.:03:59.

local area and you are right, we have a lot of ground to recoup from

:04:00.:04:08.

previous elections, we lost 124 seats, communities have now had a

:04:09.:04:12.

few years to reflect on the quality of service they have been able to

:04:13.:04:18.

get and they have missed the very effective liberal Democrat

:04:19.:04:21.

councillors they have had. This is not just about whether you are a

:04:22.:04:28.

believer or remainer, ultimately, that is an issue we are going to

:04:29.:04:33.

have to settle and we will settle it not in the way the Government is

:04:34.:04:37.

having by dictating the terms of the debate, but by bringing the whole

:04:38.:04:41.

country together. I think that is something you can only do if, as we

:04:42.:04:45.

have suggested, you give the people the opportunity to have a say on the

:04:46.:04:49.

deal when Theresa May eventually produces it. The only way you could

:04:50.:04:54.

really replace Labour in the foreseeable future would be if a big

:04:55.:04:59.

chunk of the centre and right of the Labour Party came over and join due

:05:00.:05:03.

in some kind of new social democratic alliance. -- joined you.

:05:04.:05:11.

There is no sign that will happen? I do not see whether common purpose is

:05:12.:05:14.

anymore holding the Labour Party together. That is for people in the

:05:15.:05:18.

Labour Party to make their own decisions. Use what happened to the

:05:19.:05:25.

Labour Party in Scotland. -- you saw. Politics moved on and left them

:05:26.:05:31.

behind and they were decimated as a consequence of that. So was your

:05:32.:05:36.

party. It is possible the same thing could happen to the Labour Party and

:05:37.:05:40.

the rest of the UK. Politics is moving on and they are coming up

:05:41.:05:45.

with 1970s solutions to problems in 2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks

:05:46.:05:53.

for joining us. Let us have a look at some of the tax and benefit

:05:54.:05:59.

changes coming up this week. The tax changes first of all. The personal

:06:00.:06:04.

allowance is going to rise to ?11,500, the level at which you

:06:05.:06:08.

start to pay tax. The higher rate threshold, where you start to play

:06:09.:06:15.

at 40%, that will rise from currently ?43,400, rising up to 40

:06:16.:06:22.

5000. -- pay. Benefit changes, freeze on working age benefits,

:06:23.:06:28.

removal of the family element of tax credits and universal credit, that

:06:29.:06:34.

is a technical change but quite an impact. The child element of tax

:06:35.:06:41.

credit is going to be limited to two children on any new claims. The

:06:42.:06:47.

Resolution Foundation has crunched the numbers and they discovered that

:06:48.:06:51.

when you take the tax and benefit changes together, 80% go to better

:06:52.:06:57.

off households and the poorest third or worse. What help -- what happened

:06:58.:07:06.

to help the just about managing? The Resolution Foundation exists to find

:07:07.:07:12.

the worst possible statistics... It is not clear the figures are wrong?

:07:13.:07:17.

They are fairly recent figures and I have not seen analysis by other

:07:18.:07:22.

organisations. The Adam Smith Institute will probably have some

:07:23.:07:27.

question marks over it. Nobody should be surprised a Tory

:07:28.:07:30.

government is trying to make the state smaller... And the poor

:07:31.:07:35.

poorer. The system is propped up by better off people and so it will be

:07:36.:07:40.

those people who will be slightly less heavily taxed as you make the

:07:41.:07:48.

state smaller. Theresa May will have to stop just talking about the just

:07:49.:07:52.

about managing. And some of her other language and the role of the

:07:53.:07:55.

government and the state when she sounded quite positive... She

:07:56.:08:00.

sounded like a big government conservative not small government.

:08:01.:08:05.

In every set piece occasion, she says, it is time to look at the good

:08:06.:08:12.

the government can do. That is not what you heard from Mrs Thatcher.

:08:13.:08:17.

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would not have dared to say it either even

:08:18.:08:22.

if they believed it. It raises a much bigger question which is, as

:08:23.:08:28.

well as whether this is a set of progressive measures, the Resolution

:08:29.:08:31.

Foundation constantly argued when George Osborne announced his budget

:08:32.:08:35.

measures as progressive when they were regressive when they checked

:08:36.:08:40.

out the figures, but also how this government was going to meet the

:08:41.:08:44.

demand for public services when it has ruled out virtually any tax

:08:45.:08:49.

rises that you would normally do now, including National Insurance.

:08:50.:08:53.

There are a whole range of nightmare issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray

:08:54.:08:58.

in relation to tax. The Resolution Foundation figures do not include

:08:59.:09:03.

the rise in the minimum wage which has just gone under way. They do not

:09:04.:09:07.

include the tax free childcare from the end of April, the extra 15 hours

:09:08.:09:10.

of free childcare from September. Even when you include these, it does

:09:11.:09:16.

not look like it would offset the losses of the poorest households.

:09:17.:09:20.

Doesn't that have to be a problem for Theresa May? It really is a

:09:21.:09:26.

problem especially when her narrative and indeed entire purpose

:09:27.:09:28.

in government is for that just about managing. What Mrs May still has

:09:29.:09:34.

which is exactly a problem they have at the budget and the Autumn

:09:35.:09:39.

Statement is that they are still saddled with George Osborne's

:09:40.:09:43.

massive ring fences on tax cuts and spending. They have to go through

:09:44.:09:49.

with the tax cut for the middle classes by pushing up the higher

:09:50.:09:52.

rate threshold which is absolutely going to do nothing for the just

:09:53.:09:56.

about managing. When they try to mitigate that, for example, in the

:09:57.:09:59.

Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was told to come up with more money to

:10:00.:10:04.

ease the cuts in tax credits, came up with 350 million, an absolute...

:10:05.:10:08.

It is billions and billions involved. Marginal adjustment. A

:10:09.:10:14.

huge problem with the actual tax and benefit changes going on with what

:10:15.:10:18.

Mrs May as saying. The only way to fix it is coming up with more money

:10:19.:10:22.

to alleviate that. Where will you find it? Philip Hammond tried in the

:10:23.:10:27.

Budget with the National Insurance rises but it lasted six and a half

:10:28.:10:31.

days. I was told that it was one of the reasons why the Chancellor

:10:32.:10:36.

looked kindly on the idea of an early election because he wanted to

:10:37.:10:42.

get rid of what he regards as an albatross around his neck, the Tory

:10:43.:10:47.

manifesto 2015, no increase in income tax, no increase in VAT, no

:10:48.:10:51.

increase in National Insurance, fuel duty was not cut when fuel prices

:10:52.:10:56.

were falling so it is hardly going to rise now when they are rising

:10:57.:11:02.

again. This is why, I suggest, they end up in these incredibly

:11:03.:11:05.

complicated what we used to call stealth taxes as ways of trying to

:11:06.:11:10.

raise money and invariably a blow up in your face. Stealth taxes never

:11:11.:11:15.

end up being stealthy. It is part of the narrative that budget begins to

:11:16.:11:21.

fall apart within hours. You have to have sympathy, as Tom says, with

:11:22.:11:25.

Philip Hammond. No wonder he would like to be liberated. The early

:11:26.:11:30.

election will not happen. The best argument I have heard for an early

:11:31.:11:34.

election. The tax and spend about at the last election was a disaster

:11:35.:11:37.

partly because the Conservatives feared they would lose. Maybe they

:11:38.:11:44.

could be a bit more candid about the need to put up some taxes to pay for

:11:45.:11:51.

public services and it is very interesting what you picked up on

:11:52.:11:53.

Philip Hammond because he is trapped. So constrained about... You

:11:54.:11:59.

can also reopen the Ring fencing and spending and the obvious place to go

:12:00.:12:05.

is the triple lock, OAP spending. Another case for an election. He

:12:06.:12:10.

cannot undo the promise to that demographic. We will not get to 2020

:12:11.:12:16.

without something breaking. The Prime Minister, the trade secretary

:12:17.:12:21.

and Mr Hammond, they are off to India, the Far East, talking up

:12:22.:12:29.

trade with these countries, I do not know if any of you are going? Sadly

:12:30.:12:36.

not. Will it produce dividends? The prime Minster is going somewhere

:12:37.:12:41.

too. No, it will not, the honest answer. No one will do a trade deal

:12:42.:12:45.

with us because we cannot do one because we are still in the EU and

:12:46.:12:49.

they need to know what our terms will be with the EU first before

:12:50.:12:52.

they can work out how they want to trade with us. This is vital

:12:53.:12:57.

preparatory work. Ministers always go somewhere in recess, it is what

:12:58.:13:01.

they do. We will not see anything in a hurry, we will not see anything

:13:02.:13:06.

for two years. They have to do it. Whatever side of the joint you are

:13:07.:13:12.

on, Brexit, remain, we need to get out there. -- the argument. We

:13:13.:13:16.

should have been doing this the day after the referendum result. It is

:13:17.:13:20.

now several months down the line and they need to step it up, not the

:13:21.:13:25.

opposite. You can make some informal talks, I guess. You can say, Britain

:13:26.:13:30.

is open for business. There is a symbolism to it. What a lot of

:13:31.:13:36.

energy sucked up into this. Parliament is not sitting so they

:13:37.:13:40.

might as well start talking. We have run out of energy and time. That is

:13:41.:13:46.

it for today. We are off for the Easter recess, back in two weeks'

:13:47.:13:50.

time. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is that

:13:51.:13:52.

used to recess! -- Easter recess. Marine Le Pen has her eyes

:13:53.:14:21.

on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself

:14:22.:14:24.

from her party's controversial past, we follow the money and ask,

:14:25.:14:28.

"Who's funding her campaign?" I think I've died and gone to

:14:29.:14:52.

heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin. So, can anybody speak Italian?

:14:53.:15:01.

No. Non parlo italiano. Can ten Brits looking for

:15:02.:15:05.

a new life start again?

:15:06.:15:18.

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