01/04/2012 Sunday Politics Wales

Later in the programme: While Swansea City confound the critics

on the pitch, can the Lib Dems do the same in politics and keep a

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 2173 seconds

controlling hand in Swansea and two Hello, I'm Aled ap Dafydd and on

the Sunday Politics Wales: Just over a month before the local

elections, we put each party under the spotlight. Today, we start with

the Liberal Democrats, who in coalition, run three of our largest

councils - Cardiff, Swansea and Wrexham. But will the coalition at

Westminster count against the Lib Dems on a local level in Wales? The

party's local government spokesman, Peter Black, joins us live. We also

have the company of the Labour MP for the Rhondda, Chris Bryant, and

William Graham, the Conservative Assembly Member for South Wales

East. It has been an interesting week in politics. What does George

Galloway's victory in Bradford tell us? Brad for it was not a target

seat for the Conservatives. -- Bradford. The Labour Party made a

mess of it and failed to understand any of the indications. George

Galloway is a consummate politician. He did very well. Is there a

broader message being sent by the voters to the main political

parties here which could be reflected in the local elections

with more independent candidates win seats? The Labour Party needs

to be very careful about seats which we might think of as being

traditional Labour heartland seats. We know where Wales, in the Rhondda

we conspired to lose it in the first Assembly elections and we

went on to lose Caerphilly. We have to be very careful and we have to

listen. I was not an Bradford so off I don't have any great insight

into what happened but in the Rhondda, we know George Galloway. I

just feel that we have been a bit lacklustre in terms of election

campaigns. There has not been much excitement. Whether it is to do

with Twitter, I doubt. I think it is being prepared to take a few

more risks. Lighter spring evenings and warmer

weather of late often means there's an election looming. This year,

it's the turn of Wales' local councils to face a possible

changing of the guard. Over coming weeks, we'll be looking at the

election prospects of the Conservatives, Labour and Plaid

Cymru. But first, our reporter, Adrian Browne, considers the Welsh

Liberal Democrats' chances of victory.

A great Welsh sporting success story this season. Swansea City are

virtually assured of remaining in football's top flight. Thanks to

their team's effective campaign to stay in the Premier League this

season, fans using receipts at the Liberty Stadium can continue to

enjoy all that some of the world's greatest footballing sides have to

offer. It could be said in local politics that the Welsh Liberal

Democrats are in the big league themselves currently. In particular,

they lead 3 large councils here in Swansea, Wrexham and Cardiff. How

do the Liberal Democrats follow the swans example and avoid the big

drop? Last year, Liberal Democrats suffered in the Assembly election.

The UK coalition deal with the Conservatives and the spending cuts

that followed were largely blamed. BBC Wales political editor believes

the large Lib Dems are hoping for a very local local elections. They

don't want people to be reminded of coalition policies that they

themselves are uncomfortable with. That is why the Lib-Dems are not

doing very well in the polls at the moment. They want this vote on

local issues where they feel much safer. It is safer territory for

them. Even greater success for the swans and the Premier League would

bring leading European sides here. Victories in local elections for

the Liberal Democrats bring much needed resources which allow them

to perform better. The political commentator Gareth Hughes says more

is at stake on May 3rd than who runs the council. Election machines

for national elections and Assembly elections are based on people going

out, delivering leaflets -- leaflets. Usually, the backbone of

every campaign is the local councillor. If they lose a

councillor, they will lose a lot of their machine. It is important they

hold on for as many cars as easy as possible. According to their rivals,

voters are being more positive about Liberal Democrats on the

doorstep than they were a year ago. They might be managing expectations.

They might believe they can take the key seats from the Lib Dems.

The polls suggest that the Liberal Democrats will have a hard battle

to hang onto them. Much like Liberty Stadium clashes this season,

neither the Liberal Democrats or anyone else can be quite sure of

the result. We were hoping to talk to Peter

Black but we're having a few difficulties with the line to

Swansea at the moment. William Graham, in much the same way as the

Liberal Democrats are hoping to it -- for these to be local local

elections, the same would be true for the Conservatives. Very true.

We must not underestimate the Liberal Democrats. They are

extremely good at local elections. In Newport, the majority is

conservative but we rely very much on the coalition with the Liberal

Democrats. If they can keep it local, then they might survive to

extent. When you look at Lib Dem councils which are led by the Lib

Dems, as Council Tax rises are below the average. They have cut

allowances for councillors by 20 % in Swansea. These are very popular

things which the party are doing. It is not what most voters are

talking about. Voters are talking about pasty tax and granny tax. I

was out on the streets yesterday and everybody was talking about

national political issues because most people are worried about their

own finances. They are worried about jobs. But there is a forum

for people to express their concerns and that is usually the

Westminster elections. These elections are about local services.

I want people to vote for what they want. Whether the candidate is the

right person to represent them. But different issues will bleed through

from Westminster and the Assembly through to local council issues. We

are proud of the fact that we have managed not to have any

redundancies in a council because of the way we've managed the Budget.

But honestly, on the streets, the things that people are talking

about this week are not those local Government issues. The problem for

the Liberal Democrats is that it's not so much the past attacks but

the patsy tax. David Cameron made a visit to the Vale of Glamorgan last

time around. Will he be here this time? He might be. The damage of an

impact you think the Conservatives can make in Wales? -- how much.

think we can take a few more seats. It is about getting it down to

local issues and we have a good record. The big problems for Plaid

Cymru and the Liberal Democrats is that for a lot up -- a lot of

voters, it will feel like a battle between Labour and Conservatives.

That might put people off voting at all. Turnout may well be a big

problem. Next year, we have elections for the police

commissioners as well. Last time, Labour lost 100 councillors and it

was a bad time for Gordon Brown. How many of those councillors do

you think you can see coming back into office? I am not very good at

predictions. I have no idea. All I know is, people this week are going,

hang on, how incompetent can a Government be. That is not directly

the responsibility of the individual Tory or Lib-Dem

councillor but I think it will hit their votes. One message the

Conservatives believe as a positive message is that of wanting to

freeze Council Tax in Wales. Do you think the Welsh voters will take

much notice of that? I think they will. People are very pleased that

the Conservative-controlled council has had no increase. It is

particularly modest in Newport. It does worry people. People are

worried about their jobs and employment. Therefore, expenditure

on Council Tax is important. People are concerned about the money in

the pocket at the moment. Wouldn't a Council Tax freeze give people

more money? It is marginal. It is far more important to most voters

whether they will have a job at all. With unemployment at the highest

level it has been the 17 years, youth unemployment particularly

high, there is a real sense of worry. The issue I've had most e-

mails about this year is the NHS Bill which has nothing to do with

Wales and yet many voters in Wales feel very strongly that this NHS

bill is not going to do them any favours in the long term because it

will introduce a privatised system of healthcare in England which will

affect Wales. Secondly, it's about petrol prices. It was a

millionaire's budget 10 days ago and could did plenty of favour at -

- favours for David Cameron's friends but not for the people on

the street. Not every party in Wales is producing a national

manifesto for the local elections. Is that a reflection of the fact

that voters do tend to vote on matters which are not local matters

but they are Westminster politics? It is due to an extent but the real

worry is turnout. All political parties have to maximise that as

best they can. Labour will do well if they can maximise their voters.

How do you go about mobilising the troops? There is a feeling that all

politicians are out of touch. We have become too timid as

politicians and we always play safe. We are frightened will be accused

of making a mistake. We have to change we -- changed the way we do

our politics. Unfortunately, we cannot make contact with Peter

Black. Time now for a look back at the Week in 60 seconds.

Assembly Conservatives and Lib Dems said they opposed regional pay in

the public sector. The UK Government is looking to public

sector bodies to introduce local pay rates. The lush and UK

governments are disappointed with two energy companies are Anglesey.

The Shadow Welsh Secretary faced the prospect of contempt of court

proceedings after criticising a judge in his memoirs. He said he

will defend free speech. The large Government launched a consultation

on whether there should be a separate legal jurisdiction in

Wales. It could mean that matters relating to laws passed by the

Assembly would only be come before us courts. And past the gate, was

it Leeds-Liverpool the David Cameron? No such problems to Carwyn

Jones. He definitely had his in Bridgend.

Let pick-up on a few of those points. Is this about VAT or is

about class? A mixture I suspect. The Chancellor was talking about

food in supermarkets. The press picked up on the tiniest element of

that which was sausage rolls and passed these sold hot. It is not

about the past is really? I am not a pasty fan. I thought the problem

was that David Cameron lied. All that stuff about going to Leeds

station, he was trying to pretend that he was somebody he was not. It

is not about class. It seems to be about asking the Chancellor whether

he's had a pasty or not. I've hardly had any discussion of a

thrill policy. You had the cut to the top rate of tax benefitting

some of millionaires to the tune of �40,000 year but you had pensioners

paying significantly more in the conditions. My suspicion is that

over the next two months, the granny tax is going to have as much

impact as the 10 p tax rate had for Gordon Brown. We are going to give

a word to Peter Black who joined us from Swansea. We were talking about

the local elections. These can't be local enough for the Liberal

Democrats can be? The local elections have always been local

for the Liberal Democrats. We do a lot of work locally. We are going

to be stressing that on the doorstep. How much do you fear a

backlash? There is always going to be a backlash when you are in

Government and doing things for the good of the country. You're making

difficult decisions. People understand that. If these were

poplar decisions, there would not be a backlash. I think some of the

decisions are popular. The average person is going to be �45 a month

better off. We're taking people out of tax. 1.1 million people in was a

better off as a result of those changes. This is a budget that has

helped ordinary people. A 20 % cut in allowances paid councillors in

Swansea. 3.4 % Council Tax rise which is about the average. But

voters are not gone to hear these message. All they were here about

is less money coming in their pay cheque at the end of the month.

Swansea did not raise its Council Tax by 3.4 % in that she froze it.

People are responding to that. We have saved the million pounds over

eight years. Some of that money has gone into freezing the Council Tax.

Some has gone into cleaning up the city. We are investing the schools

and we have reopened the leisure centre. That message on the

doorstep is going down very well. We're telling people what we're

doing and they are responding to it. I am confident that we will buck

the trend once more and do very well. But he did not buck the trend

in the Assembly elections. We kept five Assembly Members. I am

confident we can do the same again. What would be a good result for the

Liberal Democrats in a? A good result is where we continue having

Liberal-Democrats influence at local Government level. More

counsellors is always good but what is important is the benefits be

delivering local people. Lower Council Tax, investment in local

facilities, that is what Liberal Democrats have been delivering for

the last eight years in Wales. Thank you very much. Let's go back

to the Week That Was. A big announcement this week about

nuclear power and Wylfa B. What is your reaction? The single statistic

I threw back her Peter Black is that a family of �20,000 will be

�253 worse off this year because of what the Liberal Democrats have

voted for in Westminster. With regard to Wylfa B, I fear that the

problem realise -- is that successive ministers have been

opposed to nuclear power until the became the ministers and they have

to adopt the opposite position. It has created uncertainty. It will

affect thousands of jobs are Anglesey. An 8% rise in a passenger

duty today. It is a duty that could eventually fall into the control of

the Welsh Government. Is that something you would support? Not at

this stage. We have to wait and see how it pans out. It was an

environmental taxation. That seems to have been overlooked. Thank you