08/12/2013 Sunday Politics Wales

The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%

pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed

Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will

be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by

With me, three scruffy eternal students. They would celebrate if

they achieved a C+. But they are all we could afford and there will be no

pay rise for them. They will be glued to an electronic device

throughout the programme and if we are lucky they might stop there

internet shopping and tweet something intelligent. But don't

hold your breath. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last

week, storms were battering Britain, the East Coast was hit by the worst

tidal surge in more than a century, thousands of people had to be

evacuated and Nelson Mandela died. The downed the news agenda was the

small matter of George Osborne's Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his

takeaways and his first opportunity to announce some economic cheer.

It might be winter outside, but in the studios it is awesome. Autumn

Statement time. -- autumn. This is a moment of TV history. Normally when

the Chancellor delivers these statements, he has to say the

economy is actually a lot worse than everyone predicted. This time, he

can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted. A

lot better. Britain is currently growing faster

than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which

is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this

Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that

borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down

significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good

numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in

giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower

borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British

people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to

government departments. The state pension age will increase in the

2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like

discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for

infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below

that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while

for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a

long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help

those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to

higher rate taxpayers, I don't think. Perhaps it does, I can't

remember. It makes me feel guilty, I am taking them very seriously,

but... Shall I give you them? There is the Autumn Statement. Have that,

a free gift from the Sunday Politics. Is there no limit to the

generosity of the BBC? In the meantime, Twitter was awash

with unflattering pictures of a red-faced Ed Balls giving his

response. Some pictures were more than flattering than others. Is Ed

Balls OK? Should we be worrying about him? He looks very stressed.

There is nothing to worry about in terms of Ed balls and his analysis.

He and Ed Miliband have been setting the pace in terms of the focus on

the living standards crisis. It was very telling that there was not a

mention of living standards last time, we got 12 mentions this time.

Never mind what he was saying, by now everybody has a copy of the

all-important paperwork. Time to hand over to number cruncher

extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of

course it means that things are significantly better this year and

next than we thought they would be just nine months ago. That has got

to be good news. But it is also worth looking at the growth figures

a few years out. They have been revised down a little bit. The

reason is, the view of the office of budget response ability is that the

long run has not really changed very much. We are getting a bit more

growth now, but their view is that it is at the cost of a little bit of

the growth we will expect in the years after the next general

election. As the day draws to a close, the one place there has

definitely been no growth is the graphics budget of my colleague,

Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the

viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is

very worrying. Was this a watershed for George

Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that

it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are

spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George

Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about

growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the

next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But

don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it

all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.

I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably

a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his

effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as

well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech

impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The

takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people

are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front

bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be

easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went

through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the

wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.

It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and

he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like

business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price

freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you

say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,

it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not

Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed

Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to

disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little

bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he

went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,

Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his

performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The

Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are

defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the

books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will

do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just

the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit

in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie

is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,

in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that

your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of

your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George

Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying

his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living

crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.

That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.

One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking

back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A

Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong argument to make,

unfortunately it was not made well in the chamber today. Quoting the

Daily Mail, this is two poor performances. A quote that I can't

use because it uses too many four letter words. Baroness Armstrong,

speaking at Progress, a former Labour Cabinet minister, we are not

sufficiently concerned about public spending, how we would pay for what

we are talking about. Quite a battering? There were two sets of

quotes you were giving. The couple were about the strategy for tackling

public expenditure. I think it's fair that we talk about that. The

rest were pretty unattributed, nameless sources. You have never

given and of the record briefing? We have conversations off camera, but I

don't think you have a wealth of evidence to say that somehow Ed

Balls's arguments were wrong. He was making the point that, ultimately,

it is a government that does not have its finger on the pulse about

what most of your viewers are concerned about, that wages are

being squeezed and prices are getting higher and higher. You have

had time to study the Autumn Statement. What part of it does

Labour disagree with? It is a very big question. I think the overall

strategy the Autumn Statement is setting out does not deal with the

fundamental problems in the economy. What measures do you disagree with?

A lot of it is the absence of measures we would have put in if we

were doing the Autumn Statement. If you are going to deal with the cost

of living crisis, you have got to get productivity levels up in our

society. One of the best ways of doing that is on infrastructure. We

believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some

of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business

lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big

structural reforms that we need. Ultimately, the public are concerned

about the cost of living crisis. That has got to be childcare help, a

10p starting rate of tax. Above all, and energy price freeze, which

still this government are refusing to do. On Friday, you told me you

supported the principle of a welfare cap. But you change bling claim the

Chancellor's cap included pensions. You have now seen the figures, and

it does not include pensions, correct? We do want a welfare cap.

The government have said they are going to put more detail on this in

the March budget. But it does not include pensions? We think they have

a short term approach to the welfare cap. They put in some pension

benefits. The state pension is not in the short-term plan because, as

we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are

talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about

pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living

longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you

what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for

pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to

announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude

pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension

spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,

exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious

welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year

period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of

that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What

is the longer term? If you win 2015? We want to stick with the triple

lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their

short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the

winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of

benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state

pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40

year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are

writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions

have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,

if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at

pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part

of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term

cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven't

seen the proposition the Government has put before us.

You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true

when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation

does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax

threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the

freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit

changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they

could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors. The

VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My

understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?891

worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have

to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly

the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was

saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely

out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?

Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the

long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are

facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial

Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.

Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal

debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?

I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing

more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a

Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept

that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't

sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this

week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the

country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult

decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March

projections work at for those -- for both business investment and

exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround

in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before

politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have

gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit

investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have

confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now

under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The

fall in business investment is because of the recession. The

forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the

independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans

of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land

Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are

coming through now because of the confidence generated by this

government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would

increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our

share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it

stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I

have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we

would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would

hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.

Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,

then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more

than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.

On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because

the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.

Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in

recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 30%.

120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for

the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part

of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is

straightforward. House prices are now rising ten

times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are

rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average

earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you

would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month

companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this

demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to

give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help

to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as

household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt

reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not

been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,

even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --

but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share

in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The

government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall

economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating

for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for

wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people

employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest

risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending

and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure

you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election

than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more

people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better

off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is

access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe

people will be. Compared to 2010. Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This

is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education

Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always

up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education

then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't

stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,

Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform

education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion

for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's

now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further,

creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 174

have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give

parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,

currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.

An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.

Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia". But exam reforms

didn't quite go to plan. Although GCSEs got harder, plans to replace

A-levels had to be abandoned. Ultimately, the true test of these

reforms will be what happens in the classroom. The person in charge of

making sure those classrooms are up to scratch in England is the Chief

Inspector Of Schools, head of Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins

me now. Over the past 15 years, we have

doubled spending on schools even allowing for inflation. By

international standards, we are stagnating, why? I said last year

that mediocrity had settled into the system. Too many children were

coasting in schools, which is why we changed the grading structure, we

removed that awful word, satisfactory. Saying that good is

now the only acceptable standard and schools had a limited time in which

to get to that. We are seeing gradually, it is difficult to say

this in the week we have had the OECD report. Things have gradually

improved. I will come onto that in a minute. Explain this. International

comparisons show us flat-lining or even falling in some subjects,

including science. For 20 years, our domestic exam results just got

better and better. Was this a piece of fiction fed to us by the

educational establishment, was there a cover-up? There is no question

there has grade inflation. I speak as an ex-headteacher who saw that in

examinations. Perceptual state is actually doing something about that.

Most good heads will say that is about time. We have to be credible.

Do politicians and educationalists conspire in this grade inflation? It

might suit politicians to say things are going up every year. As a head,

I knew a lot of the exams youngsters were sitting were not up to scratch.

The latest OECD study places us 36th for maths, 23rd reading, slipping

down to 21st in science. Yet, Ofsted, your organisation,

designates 80% of schools as good or outstanding. That's another fiction.

This year, we have. If we see this level of progress, it has been a

remarkable progress over the last years since we changed our grading

structure, then... In a year, absolutely. We have better teachers

coming into our school system. Better leaders. Better schools. The

big challenge for our country is making sure that progress is

maintained which will eventually translate into better outcomes.

These figures are pretty much up-to-date. Are you saying within a

year 80% of the schools are good enough? All of the schools we

upgraded have had better grades in GCSE and grade 2. We have to make

sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on

similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going

to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even

worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The

secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who

has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources, you

hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the

classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you

allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education

in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.

You have got to actually empower those people that make the

difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot

of money moving what were local authority schools to become

academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the

academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school

is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that

they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?

Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are

early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce

the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst

schools in the country, in the most difficult circumstances, in the most

disadvantaged communities, are doing much better now. What about GCSE?

They are doing GCSE equivalents, the lass academic subjects question my

cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look

at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of

teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally

develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get

them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same

if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just

a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian

countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most

important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.

We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We

have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It's no

good getting good people into the classroom and then seeing them part

of teaching by bad behaviour, disaffected youngsters and poor

leadership. We see young teachers doing well for a time and then being

put off teaching and leaving from that sort of culture in our schools.

Are you a cheerleader for government education policy rather than

independent inspectors? I am independent, Ofsted is independent.

I believe we are saying the right things on standards. The Association

of teachers and lecturers say you are an arm of government. The NUT

has called for your resignation. Another wants to abolish or

Inspectorate. Have you become a pariah amongst teaching unions? If

we are challenging schools to become better, that is our job, we will

carry on doing that. I am not going to preside over the status quo. We

will challenge the system to do better, we will challenge schools

and colleges to do better. We will also challenge government when we

think they are going wrong. Many people in the education

establishment think your primary purpose is to do the Government's

bidding by shepherding schools into becoming academies. Not true at all.

You are a big supporter of academies? Yes, I believe the people

that do the business in schools are the people that are free to do what

is necessary to raise standards. I am a big supporter of autonomy in

the school system. But where we see academies Vale, where we see free

schools fail, we will say so. The study does not find much evidence

that competition and choice raise standards, but it does go with you

and say that strong school leadership, coupled with autonomy,

can make a difference. Can somebody with no experience in education be

in charge of a school? A lot of hot air has been expounded on the issue

of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified

teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in

three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good

enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a

headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot

get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as

soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you

support the use of unqualified teachers? I do. I have done it. If I

could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I

thought somebody straight from university, without qualified

teachers start this, that they could communicate well with youngsters, I

would get that person into the classroom and get them accredited if

they delivered the goods. If we are going to allow schools to have more

autonomy and not be accountable to local authorities, free schools

academies, don't you have to do... New entrants will be coming into the

market, the educational marketplace. Do you not have to act more quickly

when it is clear, and there has been examined recently, where it is

clearly going badly wrong and children's education at risk?

Absolutely. I made a point to the secretary of state and it is

something I will talk more about over the coming year. We need to be

in school is much more often. If a school fails at the moment, or

underperforms, goes into this new category, Her Majesty 's inspectors

stay with that institution until it improves. Sometimes we don't see a

school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted

should pay a much greater part in monitoring the performance of

schools between those inspections. Are you enjoying it? It is a tough

job. Are you enjoying it? This is a tough job, but I enjoy it.

Sometimes. You are watching Sunday Politics.

Coming up in just over 20 minutes, Diane Abbott will be joining us. And

we Hello, and on the Sunday Politics

Wales, the details of the Autumn Statement have been digested, but do

they satisfy our economic needs? We'll hear from Plaid Cymru's

Parliamentary Leader. And life after Remploy - we pay a

visit to the former Remploy plant in Porth with local AM Leighton

Andrews. Joining me throughout today's

programme are two MPs, Labour's Huw Irranca-Davies and the Conservative

Alun Cairns. Good morning to you both. Both of whom if we read the

news this morning will be receiving pay rises of 11%. What is your

reaction to that? It is not a decision taken by MPs. That is

right. I certainly do not think MPs will receive that pay rise. That is

enough long way to go in this debate. The public reaction has

rightly been strong. The independent body needs to reflect on that. I

suspect we will be in a different position by the time the next

general election comes. Any pay rise or be changeable, and then. Is it

something you go along with? Not in the way it is proposed. You have

from the Cabinet, from Danny Alexander and Philip Hammond. It is

angered out the -- get his anger out there that the independent body

needs to react to. I do not think anyone can look at this in a time of

first entity and understand how it can hold merit at this moment in

time. It is difficult at any moment in time with the disenchantment we

have had with MPs expenses. Most people will think, why should we pay

them more? I agree with Alun. There's a lot of water to go under

the bridge before this becomes reality. If there is a proposal like

this, which is independent, and quite rightly, this decision was

taken off as after MPs expenses. If any proposals make the light of

day, they have to be cost neutral. There cannot be any justification of

saying, we're going to simply increase the amount that goes to

MPs or two others for that matter. It must be bolted down and say, this

will not cost a penny more. I think with the public debated the and the

waiters at the moment, they will be a lot of anxiety out here at this

proposal. They will be a lot of mileage before the season light of

day. Let's go to our Bangor newsroom now

to speak to Plaid Cymru's Parliamentary Leader, Elfyn Llwyd.

We'll talk about the Autumn Statement in a minute, but we've

just been talking we have been talking about this idea

a pay rise for MPs. What is your reaction? I agree broadly with what

has been said. When you study the package that has been proposed and

the cutbacks on living allowances in London, it is not a great deal of an

increase, even if it were allowed at 11%. I doubt that will be the case.

The independent body do not have the best interests of Members of

Parliament at heart. The beer today is down. -- and they are there to do

a stone. It will be a tiny increase if at all. Members of Parliament

will be worse off than currently. Let's park that they look at the

Autumn Statement. There was a broad welcoming from Plaid Cymru for many

of the things in it, but you have specific issues, don't you? Mainly

around energy and the raising of the pension age. Broadly, of what was

your reaction to that? There were good things in it, for example, in

terms of smaller businesses. One of the big problems we have is every

small business faces harsh business rates. They are right to do so.

There are some help there. Other things are quite helpful. You look

at this statement and think, if the Chancellor was serious about the

need to export more, white isn't there anything at all to help

manufacturing within this package? That is nothing whatsoever to help

manufacturing. I found that strange. As you rightly point out, the

increase in the pension age to 70 is going to disproportionately hit many

South Wales valleys were, in some instances, the lifetime expectancy

is as low as 75. To expect a person to have five years of retirement

pension is grossly unfair, having paid in all those years. The other

point about petrol not being increased, that is fine, but it does

not help. It is not going to be cut either. In broad terms of household

fuel and so on, we as a party would like to see a not-for-profit

organisation, energy Wales, being set up. There have been -- there has

been a successful model previously. That would be better rather than

trying to get a freeze for disarmament of years. Looking at it

specifically on a longer term basis, which is the appropriate way

forward. What do you make of the adamant, and we will hear from our

friends in the studio and a moment, Labour's adamant that George Osborne

should not be claiming the praise for turning the economy around? The

growth forecasts are improving, aren't they? George Osborne predicts

our surplus in the economy. Labour say he should not take the credit.

What do you think? There's a point here. The economic cycle is bound to

come back injury course. They activities it has longer because of

the austerity cuts that George Osborne has gone in for. For him to

take the credit because of the economic cycle seems to me to be

rather strange because in the past, he has got his figures are wrong.

Even if the growth figures are correct, and I will accept for the

moment that they are, they are still way, way behind in the previous

session growth figures in any event. There is not a great deal of

celebration, but clearly, it appears things are improving. It is probably

down to the economic cycle. We will address some of that with Alun

Cairns in a moment. Before you go, I would like to get your reaction to

news of Mandela's death. Whenever the statesman of his stature passes

away, we search possibilities. In Nelson Mandela's case, they are all.

To have spent 97 years in prison and be released without any rancour to

those who kept him in prison, I think is remarkable. I was

privileged to have been any audience in 1996 when he addressed both

Houses of Parliament. One of the big days that I will never forget my

career. -- in my career. Merry Christmas to you, all the

best. Let's get your reaction on the statement.

Who should take credit for these improved growth figures? George

Osborne should not be lapping this up and taking credit. We expect to

come out of recession at some point. Our deep regret is this was not

happening sooner and that we did not have the investment that we have

seen announcements about with infrastructure over the last week.

If you want to get the economy moving, invest in house-building. We

have the slowest out of house-building going on at the

moment. We have a real housing crisis. It gets people working and

spending in the high street. We're behind the curve. We behind the

curve. Any movement -- any measures of improvement are to be commended.

Let me put something clear to begin with. George Osborne does not claim

credit. It is the hard-working people in the UK have got to grips

with the issues, many who have taken pay cuts. It has kept employment

growing and they deserve the credit for turning the economy around.

George Osborne can claim credit for holding plan a, because plan a

worked. That made the framework to allow people to make a difference.

You have got to dig into context the financial crisis in the eurozone,

the way that the global economy has not bounced back. Huw is trying to

say, well, it is going to come back at some stage anyway. The Japanese

economy has not. This is the fastest-growing economy in the

developed world. We need to recognise that. We are behind the

original projections because of our dependence on the eurozone, and that

went into financial meltdown. If they are not buying anything, we

cannot export to them. There has been a lot of work by a lot of

businesses and employees getting to grips with the recession,

restructuring the economy, and in relation to the point about

manufacturing, we have the only economy in the developed world where

section, including manufacturing, are growing. There's a lot of work

to be done to stop -- to be done. Let's accept there were positives.

What positives do you take? This has been done in the back of working

people, and it has. If you look at my constituency, we have a massive

rise in part-time work. We have a massive rise in zero hours

contracts. We have people with wage reductions. People are now on

average six and -- ?1600 worse off. It is being done on the back of the

working poor. The positives, that is some researchers, but very much

sectoral driven. New house-building based on the fact of the proposal

around the Conservative policy on building new houses by underpinning

mortgages to 95% and having a guarantee. This is his bubble

territory. Even independent commentators have said there's a

danger this be the old-style resurgence. If we have a recovery,

let's have it on jobs, manufacturing, full-time jobs. Let's

have everyone sharing in this with the earnings going up. At the

moment, they have taken a hit. It is unsustainable as a recovery, I think

is the point being made. I remember being interviewed by you some months

ago when Huw was talking about the prospect of the triple-dip

recession. We have had neither of those. Ed Balls and Huw were seeing

we were going too far and too fast with the cutbacks, but now it is

paying dividends. We have managed to keep borrowing down. We have managed

to keep interest-rate stone, which is around -- which has allowed

businesses to employ more people, yes, many attack part-time. Latest

data shows that is expanding to full-time employment and getting

people off the dole queue. That is exactly where we stand. Who's

tracked -- Huw's track record on this is completely shot. We were

talking about the double dip. It didn't happen. I think Huw would

accept it is very close. That is the fundamental question. When George

Osborne stands up there and lauds his achievements, and he does and he

did in that Autumn Statement. A lot of people will be saying, I know who

has taken the pain in this, and it is us. The truth is, people are

worse off. There is a real crisis, Alun, with people feeling the brunt

of feeling to do that investment Ellie on. We should have had this

investment earlier. That is a politician saying, the way to get

out of recession is, yes, we have to deal with debt and the deficit, but

you have borrowed now in three years more than the Labour Government did

in the lifetime of that Government. We will move on shortly. He was

talking about more borrowing and spending which got us into the mess

in the first place. We're helping to Tom the economy around. -- to turn

the economy around. We have a long-term plan. If we had moved to

other plans as Huw and Ed Balls called for, we would not be where we

are now. We have had their Help to Buy scheme and cut corporation tax

to make us more competitive. We have had business rates being cut to help

the smallest of businesses. We are far more competitive and responding

to the demands of employers. In that position, we are creating more

employment and supporting businesses to turn the economy around. We will

leave it there. It is safe to suggest you do not agree on this

matter. Media nine months, we will have the same discussion again.

In the week that former workers at the Remploy factory in Wrexham were

made redundant for the second time in 18 months, there is some good

news from the Rhondda for some staff who worked at the Remploy site in

Porth. More than half of the 56 workers at the computer recycling

factory kept jobs when it was taken over by management and has gone on

to grow business and is looking to take on more staff in the future. I

went to see some of the work being done at the site, which had a guest

worker for the day. These laptops are having their hard

disks wiped before being sold on or returned to the organisations who

sent them here to Porth. It is a growing trade. The building here

used to house a similar business run by Remploy, but a management buyout

saw 29 of the 56 staff retained to work for a company here. The local

AM Leighton Andrews is taking part in their what a day in our shoes

campaign, shadowing members of the union at work. But Mister Andrews

and the union have been involved in securing jobs here for Remploy

workers made redundant following the decision made by the UK Government

to close Remploy factories across the country. It is great to see this

business succeeding. I think it has a big future, because clearly there

are more and more computers in the world. You get business from the

public sector and business from the private sector. I think this company

can grow. About Government says that around 200 former workers have found

jobs due to the Remploy support scheme, including staff here. The

man in charge in Porth is delighted to be able to keep former Remploy

staff on, even though the company has to pay a premium to do so. The

salaries being paid to operators are significantly higher than the market

rate is, but myself and my partner Tony, we accept that those were the

salaries, everything we did in the budgets was based on that. The terms

and conditions are very good. We know that we are offsetting some of

the profits, but actually, we wanted to continue the good things that

Remploy did. As another hard disk is wiped clean, staff here will only

have memories of this place in the future, as the company is moving to

a new location in time for the New Year.

What do make of that story? It is not good news everywhere for Remploy

workers, but it is there. It is a great success. Leighton Andrews

deserves credit for the part he played in that. It goes to show that

no change is not an option. We should not be fearful of change. Was

the right decision made by the UK Government to close these factors?

Yes, to allow restructuring. It was supported by disability charities

because so much was the end spent per person when it could be spent on

other people in other ways. That is the evidence of it, that that

business has picked itself up, turned itself around, and

taxpayers' money is supporting disabled people in other areas

elsewhere. It is about making the most of the value. That is one

example, isn't it, but you have had examples of finding work in your

constituency? Yes. I was there about 18 months ago with Leighton. Chris

Bryant has also done a lot of good work there. It is a good success

story. It is not been success. I know individuals who did not find

employment when Remploy closed. We have seen similar models in Bridgend

where, when lay-offs happened, groups got together with contracts

that were already there. That is the frustrating thing. Contracts were

available. They have put the enterprise back together in a

private or mutual model. It shows what can be done, Alun is right or

not. From my perspective, when people have not gone back into

employment, others have reconstituted the business that was

there. It was our argued that, actually, there is a business model

that could work. We did not need to shut every factory. The other thing

that was interesting was the mentioned the Welsh Government

support on this. There are still jobs at opinion. I think that is

right, you know. It is worth paying extra to have people bear with the

value and dignity of a job. We see devolution in action. One Government

disagrees with an other one. The Welsh garments chose its own path.

That is fine. I give credit to the local Assembly Member for his work

in this respect. It goes to show that we should not be fearful or

oppose every sort of change. We were fortunate to disability charity

supported the UK Government's move because we recognise we could not

continue spending taxpayers' money on so few people. That could be

spent on other people in other ways and that has now released a great

resource which has led to a successful business. More power to

them, I say. Time now for a quick look back at

some of the political stories of the week in sixty seconds.

The First Minister announced an independent review into the alleged

neglect of more than 100 elderly people at a number of care homes in

South Wales. It follows an investigation by Gwent Police.

Andrew Arty Davis called on shoppers to support the local markets and

support local jobs well bringing up by them so back to town centres.

This man back to Football Association of Wales' campaign to

improve the behaviour of parents at children's football matches. He said

some parents behaved appallingly. It discouraged children from playing.

And flags at half-mast at the Welsh Assembly as a mark of respect for

Nelson Mandela. She said the world was a better

place with his contribution. We saw flags flying at half-mast at

the Assembly following the death of Nelson Mandela. You heard the First

Minister speak earlier. It was phenomenal. A lot of people have not

remarked the media mother Nelson Mandela had. He has people rolling

in the aisles. He had a quiet dignity with the thing. Though

Clinton summed it up in his response. Bill Clinton knew Nelson

Mandela will. He said the gift of the man was that he may just buy out

to be that much better than you were and to feel and try again to be

better. There is significant in that. As politicians, we are

absolutely floored. I have not seen a saint amongst politicians, good or

bad. You have to keep on trying, do the best for the community and

people, and for natural justice. He was, if you look back on the 20th

century, possibly the standard person, above politics, who is a

real statesman. We're mourning his passing, but what we can actually

celebrate is what he contributed as an ideal of what we should try to

be. I have to describe -- I heard him described this morning as

amongst the Gandhi and Martin Luther King. He was that kind of figure.

Certainly. I visited South Africa within two years of apartheid

tending. -- apartheid ending. You could see the seats next to bus

stops Willie had scraped away the whites only sign. It was a healing

process at that time. I was encouraged by the responses that

were there, but there was a tension that he managed to overcome. It is

quite inspirational. Tributes will continue as we look ahead to the

funeral next Sunday. That will be an enormous event. Deservedly so. One

of the things I had not understood was that when South Africa won the

Rugby World Cup final in South Africa, he wore the Springbok

jersey. I had not appreciated the significance of him doing that. That

really sent such a strong message to the Afrikaans community that was so

associated with rugby. That is something we would associate

ourselves with. It is worth also singling out some of those people at

the heart of the anti-apartheid movement, including people like

Peter Hain. It shows in the big debates we have had about sport and

politics and whether they should mix, well, yes. As we'll look at the

Winter limpets, the same things comes to equality. -- the Winter

Olympics. Tomorrow, the House of Commons will

pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela. Our nation has lost its greatest

son. Our people have lost a father. The first thing I ever did that

involved an issue or policy, or politics, was protest against

apartheid. I think his greatest legacy, to

South Africa and to the world, is the emphasis which he has always put

on the need for a conciliation, on the importance of human rights. He

also made us understand that we can change the world. We can change the

world by changing attitudes, by changing perceptions. For this

reason, I would like to pay him tribute as a great human being, who

raised the standard of humanity. Thank you for the gift of Madiba.

Thank you for what he has enabled us to know we can become.

We are joined now by the Labour MP Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not

one after he was released from prison in 1990. He went as an

election observer for the first one person, one-vote in South Africa. I

would guess, of all the people you met in your life, you must have been

the most impressive and biggest influence? He was extraordinary. He

had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot

of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without

bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his

achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that

if you have black majority rule, you might have a bloodbath. It's down to

Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that

Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the

key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about

it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That

anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics

in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the

time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in

South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the

anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political

campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's

assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people

that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him

come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you

have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,

picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was

more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice

Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's

performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a

brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best

performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points

he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I

noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that

under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for

him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience

first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not

anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This

is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can

say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to

Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he

wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless

enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid

of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed

Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the

right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed

Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview

because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument

with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just

about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to

look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of

living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than

that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective

member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown

years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys

that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to

replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,

Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the

Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about

shifting tectonic plates, it would, wouldn't it? But it is a step too

far. Ed Balls would not be too happy. It is not something you would

want to do lightly. That sounds a bit of a threat. Not from you. I

can't see Ed Balls magnanimously retreating and say, go on, Alistair

Darling, take the job I have been after all career. Where do you put

him? Do you make him a middle ranking business or welfare

secretary? He wouldn't do that. If you sack him, he would retreat to

the backbenchers. He might take up knitting and practices piano scales,

or he might have a blood feud with Ed Miliband. I don't know which

could be. You look back to when he was schools Secretary, you could

feel he was constantly fuming. I think he is better inside the tent,

looking out, than the other way around. The thing one Labour

strategist said to me was that he is too much looking into the rear-view

mirror, when it comes to economic policy. He needs to look ahead

through the windscreen. That had some resonance? He was at the centre

of Labour's economic policy-making from the mid-90s. So it's hard for

him but he has to look forward. There is an interesting comparison

with 2009. Gordon Brown got in trouble when he said the choice is

between Labour investment and Tory cuts. Everybody knew it was between

Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other words, he was not acknowledging

reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can say it is the wrong sort of

recovery, but there is a recovery. Does he not need to absorb that

punch and say there is a recovery, then people will listen to him?

Possibly. We know that the macroeconomics are looking better.

We also know people are not experiencing it as a recovery in

living standards. No one, not even Tories, really believe that David

Cameron knows what it is like for middle-income people to live normal

lives. Living standards is particularly powerful because of the

composition of the government? Don't go away. This time last year we

ambushed our political panel with a quiz. They didn't come out of it

smelling of roses, but they did come out rather smelly.

Will the coalition still be in place a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I

say definitely as well. From now, one year, will we know the date of

the European referendum? Yes. No. I say no as well. How much growth will

there be? Less than 1%. Father Christmas is less qualified than me,

but I will go for one. I will go for a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a

third of that. I am with you, and 1%. We didn't do too badly. What

will growth be next year? I will remind you, the OBR has upgraded to

2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went

down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and

claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it

wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular

growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is

incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, because the housing market in London

is rocketing. It would be closer to 3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed

Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes,

I value my life. Will UKIP mean the European elections, by which I mean

have the highest percentage of the vote? Yes. Second behind Labour.

Second behind Labour. Will Alex Salmond win the independence

referendum? No, but it will be closer than we think. No, unless

they do something catastrophic like let Cameron debate him. Too close to

call. Controversial. How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come

to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than anyone thinks. The entire population

of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel Farage thanks. I'll go with that,

I'm confident. A change of tone for your magazine. Not many will come,

but a lot here already will normalise and be counted into

figures. Too many for most right-wing commentators. I think

quite a few will come, but not the kind of numbers that made such a

huge difference. This time, everybody is open. They do like to

speak English, that is the reason they want to come. We'll all three

of you still be here by this time next year? Yes. Would you recommend

that? Yes, keep them. And he has lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If

you can keep affording me, I will be here. I hope so, it sounds like you

have a firing squad outside. I hope so, maybe you will find some true

talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they? Let me put this to you, I think you

will agree. The coalition will not break now, this side of the election

next year? There will not be... They will not go their own ways by this

time next year? Of next year, maybe just after. Early 2015. This side of

the election? What is the UKIP view? I don't think there is an advantage

to either of them. If the Lib Dems pulled out, they would look like

there were a lodger in the Tory house of government. I think it

would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think

that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick

Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all

of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the

grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force

that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.

I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives

you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the

first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the

Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.