30/03/2014 Sunday Politics Wales


30/03/2014

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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:37.:00:42.

Can Ed Davey keep the lights on? Can he ever deliver cheaper power? Or

:00:43.:00:46.

the investment our energy market badly needs? We'll be asking the

:00:47.:00:50.

Energy Secretary. Why has the anti-independence Better

:00:51.:00:53.

Together campaign suddenly got the jitters? We'll be quizzing Scottish

:00:54.:00:58.

Secretary Alistair Carmichael. And whatever happened to the BNP?

:00:59.:01:00.

Later in the programme, Mark They could be heading for

:01:01.:01:08.

Later in the programme, Mark Drakeford tells me about new

:01:09.:01:12.

legislation designed to keep us healthy. We hear from Ed

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legislation designed to keep us which runs the capital's Fire

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Service. The Mayor has a political move designed to silence his

:01:19.:01:19.

critics. And with me, as always, the most

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useless political panel in the business, who we're contractually

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obliged to insult on a weekly basis. But not today, because they are our

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chosen ones. They are the brightest and the best, we've even hired a

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plane to prove it: Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh and Nick Watt who'll be

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tweeting throughout the programme. Right, left and centre of the

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Westminster Establishment have been unanimous in saying there would be

:01:54.:01:56.

no chance of monetary union with the rest of the UK for an independent

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Scotland. Then an unnamed minister spoke to our Nick saying that wasn't

:02:02.:02:04.

necessarily so, and that made the Guardian's front page. The SNP were

:02:05.:02:09.

delighted and the anti-independence campaign rushed to limit the damage.

:02:10.:02:15.

The faux pas has come at a time when the Better Together side was already

:02:16.:02:17.

beginning to worry that things were going the Nationalists' way. Let's

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speak to a leading light in that campaign, Scottish Secretary

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Alistair Carmichael, who's in Aberdeen at the Scottish Liberal

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Democrat spring conference. Alistair Carmichael, why is there a

:02:35.:02:38.

sense of crisis now engulfing the no campaign? I think that is something

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of an overstatement. What you have got is, I am getting my own voice

:02:50.:02:54.

played back in my ear. What you have got here is one story from an

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unnamed source, a minister who we are told, we do not know for

:03:00.:03:04.

certain, who has speculated on the possibility of a currency union

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actually happening. I do not think that is helpful but it is not any

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big deal. You have to measure it against what we have got publicly

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named on the record. We have got a detailed intervention of the

:03:17.:03:19.

Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, outlining all the

:03:20.:03:22.

reasons why a currency union would not be a good idea. And then you

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have got independent advice from the permanent Secretary of the Treasury

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himself saying actually, this is such a bad idea, that I would never

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advise a chancellor to go ahead with it. You set one against the other

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and you see that pretty much the force of argument is very much

:03:43.:03:45.

against those of us who want to remain in the United Kingdom. All

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the minister was saying is come the day, if Westminster is negotiating

:03:50.:03:53.

with a new independent Scotland, a deal is to be done, Faslane where

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the nuclear deterrent is, there is nowhere else in the UK to put that

:03:58.:04:03.

is, certainly not for the next 20 years, a deal would be done, the

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nuclear weapons would stay in Faslane and Scotland would get a

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monetary union with the rest of the UK. That is perfectly plausible,

:04:10.:04:15.

isn't it? No, I'm sorry, it is simply not plausible. The economy is

:04:16.:04:20.

more important than anything else. What you have had here is very clear

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advice from the treasury officials saying it is not in the economic

:04:25.:04:28.

best interests of the people of England Wales, Northern Ireland, any

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more than it is in the interests of people in Scotland. Where do you put

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the nukes? The outcome will not change. Where do you put the nukes

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when the Nationalists kick you out? I do not believe that will be a

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problem because I do not believe Scotland will vote for independence.

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But you might be asking the Scottish Nationalists, who are apparently

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promoting this, are they then not sincere when they say they want to

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remove nuclear weapons from Scotland? It seems to be a curious

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mixed message. As you know, I have not got the Nationalists, I have got

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you, so let me ask you the questions. You are widely seen as

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running a campaign which is too negative. The Nationalists are

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narrowing the gap in the poll found you are squabbling among yourselves.

:05:30.:05:31.

This campaign is going pear shaped, isn't it? No, let's deal with the

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polls. All the polls show that the people of Scotland want to stay as

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part of the United Kingdom. Yes, there were a couple of polls last

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week that said the gap was narrowing a little. The most recent poll of

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all, the poll on Wednesday which actually polled people's voting

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intentions on the question come September showed that only 28% of

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people in Scotland were prepared to say they were voting yes, as opposed

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to the 42% who were on our side of the argument saying they wish to

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remain part of the UK. That poll said women were skewing towards a

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yes vote and it showed that the don't knows were beginning to skew

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towards a yes vote. That is why you yourself wrote this morning that if

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your campaign does not get its act together, you would be sleepwalking

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into a split to quote yourself. No, to quote myself I said it was not

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impossible that the Nationalists could win that. That is absolutely

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the case. The biggest danger for the United Kingdom camp in this whole

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argument is people will look at the polls. They show us with a healthy

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lead consistently. As a consequence, they think this will not happen. It

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can happen. I have got to tell everybody that it could, not least

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because the Nationalists have an enormous advantage in terms of the

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amount of money they have at their disposal to buy momentum. They will

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be advertising in cinemas, in football matches and on social

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media. We have got to realise what is coming and as a consequence, we

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have got to get our arguments in place and our campaign as sharp as

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theirs. Thank you for joining us. Nick, this unnamed minister who gave

:07:28.:07:31.

you the story, did he or she know what they were doing? I do not think

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they were sitting there wanting to blast this out there, because the

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agreed government position was there will not be a currency union, if

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there is a vote for independence. But what I was managing to get hold

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of whether thoughts that are in the deeper recesses of people's minds,

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when they are looking at the polls which have been narrowing, or there

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was Alistair Carmichael quite rightly says, the pro-UK vote is

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still ahead. People are looking down the line, what would happen after

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the 18th of September this year, not just the next day but the next

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year, in those very lengthy negotiations that would take place,

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when there would be a lot of moving places on the table. You talked

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about Faslane, what would happen then and that is what I managed to

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get hold of, that there are thoughts about all those pieces that would be

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on the table. It is not surprising that some in Westminster think

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that. Let's take the Shadow Chancellor Danny Alexander at his

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word, they do not want a monetary union. But if they are faced with

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giving the Scots a monetary union in a post-independent Scotland, or

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having to remove the nuclear submarines from Faslane, where they

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have nowhere else to put them, probably except North America, there

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is a deal to be done. I think whatever minister gave Nick his

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story is probably onto something. If the Scots vote for independence, of

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course a deal will be done about the currency because it is not in

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London's interests to have a rancorous relationship with

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Edinburgh. Even if the deal is not done, how does one country stop

:09:15.:09:21.

another country using its. That is different. All London can really do

:09:22.:09:29.

is prevent Scottish intervention on the monetary policy committee. The

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interest rate would be set without any regard to the Scottish interest.

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Even that is only a fatal problem if the Scottish economy becomes so out

:09:38.:09:42.

of sync with the UK economy. Except it is a problem for Scotland's

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financial system because if you go down that route there is no means of

:09:48.:09:50.

injecting liquidity into the financial system in the financial

:09:51.:09:54.

crisis. That is why they would rather have a monetary union. Is it

:09:55.:09:58.

not remarkable to hear the Secretary of State for Scotland here that the

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Nationalists are spending too much money, when he represents a campaign

:10:02.:10:05.

which brings together all the major parties in the UK and all the

:10:06.:10:09.

resources of the UK and he is bleating about the Nationalists

:10:10.:10:13.

having more to spend? I did think that was a funny line and it was in

:10:14.:10:18.

the Observer. It lays into Alex Salmond's plucky upstart idea that

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he's taking on this big establishment. I thought it was a

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bizarre open goal, I am losing my football metaphors, forgive me. The

:10:29.:10:32.

polls are so in favour of a no vote. But the trend has been going

:10:33.:10:40.

their way. We have six months left which is not enough to close the

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gap. They always tell you Alex Salmond is a strong finisher. The

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plucky upstarts have this funding from a millionaire. The Better

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Together campaign are being incredibly cautious about where they

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get their money from. They do not want to go to the City of London

:11:00.:11:03.

Police say, give us a couple of million.

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Being Energy Secretary used to be a bit of a dawdle, especially when

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North Sea oil was flowing. Now it's very much a hot potato as Ed Davey

:11:10.:11:17.

has been finding out the hard way. High household energy bills have

:11:18.:11:25.

been top of his inbox. The big six energy companies account for 95% of

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the market. Off Johnson -- Ofgem said there had been possible tacit

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coordination in the timing of price rises and ordered an investigation

:11:35.:11:39.

by the competition and markets authorities which will look at

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whether the big six should be broken up. Where does that leave

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investment? The boss of Centrica made the point that you would not

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spend money building an extension if you knew in two years time your home

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might be bulldozed. The spare margin, that is what is left in the

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generating system to cope with a surge in demand on a cold winter's

:12:02.:12:06.

night, is due to drop to historically low levels in 2016,

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according to Ofgem. Normally at around 15%, capacity could drop to

:12:12.:12:16.

2% after the next election and that could lead to a surge in the sale of

:12:17.:12:22.

candles. Now where is that light switch?

:12:23.:12:24.

Energy Secretary Ed Davey, joins me now. Oh, we have found the light

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switch! The gap between a peak winter demand and generating

:12:33.:12:38.

capacity could possibly reach 2% next winter or the winter after. We

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will keep the lights on, that is for clear. When we came to power, energy

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investment had been relatively low. The Labour Party had failed to deal

:12:50.:12:53.

with the energy deficit. From day one we have been pushing up

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massively. Investment has been 8 billion a year. Last year was a

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record. Spare capacity is now heading to 2%. Why are you allowing

:13:06.:13:11.

it to get that no? Because we have been increasing investment

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massively, last was a record level, we will be able to keep the lights

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on. Some of the figures you are showing suggests we are not doing

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anything. We have not only done enough in our last three years, we

:13:22.:13:27.

have put in measures to stimulate huge amounts of extra investment. We

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have the healthiest pipeline investment in our history. We will

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come onto investment in a minute. None of that change is the fact that

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we will be close to 2% next winter or the winter after that. We have

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one major power station shut down, or a cold winter away from having

:13:50.:13:55.

major problems with energy supply. It is still 2%. Let me explain. The

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figures assume we are not doing anything but we are doing something.

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Look at the National Grid. They are able to bring in energy from

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interconnector is because we are connected up to Europe. They are

:14:09.:14:13.

able to create a reserve so if we get to problems, they will have a

:14:14.:14:19.

mothballed plant they can bring on. You have not agreed with anybody on

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that. The decision was taken last July. But no supplier has agreed to

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under mothball its plant. We would not expect them to do that yet. Our

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plan is in place. On time, on schedule, as we already thought it

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would be. But you have not got a single agreement with a power supply

:14:44.:14:48.

who has mothballed plant to on the ball it. We did not expect to. Our

:14:49.:14:56.

plan is in me National Grid will do an election to allow those plants to

:14:57.:15:00.

come on. There is a huge amount of interest. There are gigawatts of

:15:01.:15:03.

power that can come in to come on. There is a huge amount of interest.

:15:04.:15:06.

There are gigawatts of power that can come into that auction and we

:15:07.:15:11.

are not other measures we can take and that is just in the short term.

:15:12.:15:15.

We have a plan for the medium-term. We will be running the first auction

:15:16.:15:20.

for new capacity. The final decision will be taken and we have learned

:15:21.:15:35.

lessons from what they do in North America and other European countries

:15:36.:15:37.

so we can stay minute mothballed plants and new plants to be built. I

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am absolutely clear there is not a problem. You only build 9000

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megawatts of new capacity from 2011-13. You have closed almost

:15:51.:15:56.

22,000 megawatts. Why would you be so cavalier with a nation's power

:15:57.:16:01.

supply? The last Government was cavalier because we knew those

:16:02.:16:03.

figures are happening because we've known for a long time a lot of power

:16:04.:16:07.

plants were coming to the end of their life, coal power plants,

:16:08.:16:11.

nuclear power plants, and we had to increase the rate of investment, but

:16:12.:16:16.

we... That shows clearly you are closing twice as much, you have to

:16:17.:16:22.

date, closed twice as much as you have opened, hence the lack of spare

:16:23.:16:26.

capacity. We knew a lot of them are coming back for the last Labour

:16:27.:16:30.

Government knew. We have increased the new so that's increasing

:16:31.:16:33.

significantly, far faster than under the last Government but also

:16:34.:16:38.

remember, you were very wrong at the beginning of your clip, margins at

:16:39.:16:42.

15% are very own usual. They are historically high. The average

:16:43.:16:49.

margin was 25%. That was wasting a huge amount of money. But since

:16:50.:16:54.

privatisation, we've had margins between 5% and 10%. Normally, high

:16:55.:16:57.

margins historically, which is costly. Now we will have

:16:58.:17:04.

historically low margins. People have to pay for that, so we make

:17:05.:17:08.

sure the lights stay on, we have a short-term policy I have described

:17:09.:17:12.

to you, and medium-term policy and a long-term policy. The long-term

:17:13.:17:16.

policy comes huge investment between nuclear and optional,

:17:17.:17:38.

policy comes huge investment between on. Ofgem, Independent, says the

:17:39.:17:44.

chance of blackouts by 2016 has increased fourfold under your watch.

:17:45.:17:49.

What they say, if you read the report, if we did nothing, they

:17:50.:17:57.

would be problems. But we have been working with Ofgem. We have been

:17:58.:18:02.

working with National Grid, and we have agreed that there will be a

:18:03.:18:07.

reserve capacity which can come on if we get to the peak for the Best

:18:08.:18:10.

not just on the supply side but demand and into connectors. You talk

:18:11.:18:17.

about industry having to move to off-peak times. We say, they are

:18:18.:18:20.

prepared to that you paid for it, and it makes commercial sense for

:18:21.:18:25.

them, it's a sensible thing for the Wii will pay them to move to

:18:26.:18:29.

off-peak. You have huge diesel parks for the you talk as if that

:18:30.:18:32.

something new but it's been around for a long time for the 200 these

:18:33.:18:36.

contracts out there. We want to expand that. You have hundreds of

:18:37.:18:41.

diesel generators to click into, haven't you? There's a whole range

:18:42.:18:47.

of generators. Diesel generation, dirty fuel. There's a of mothballed

:18:48.:18:54.

gas which can come. If you look at the increase of the independent

:18:55.:19:03.

generators, many companies, a range of power companies who are building

:19:04.:19:08.

a new power station and want to build new ones. This is a healthy

:19:09.:19:13.

situation. You say you made over 100 billion new investment between now

:19:14.:19:17.

and the end of the decade to restore capacity and meet renewable

:19:18.:19:21.

targets. Now you have referred the Big Six to the competition

:19:22.:19:24.

commission, how much of that to expect to come from them? We will

:19:25.:19:28.

see what the market delivers. We have always expected independent

:19:29.:19:33.

generators to do a lot more than is happening in the past. How much from

:19:34.:19:40.

the Big Six? It's not for me to say it's going to be best from that

:19:41.:19:45.

company. The real interest is we have huge amounts of companies

:19:46.:19:50.

wanting to invest. If you look at independent analysis, they say

:19:51.:19:52.

Britain is one of the best places to invest in energy in the world. We

:19:53.:19:56.

are the worldly do in offshore wind, one of the best for

:19:57.:20:00.

renewables, one of the only countries getting nuclear power

:20:01.:20:04.

stations. Rather than the bleaker picture you're painting, the reverse

:20:05.:20:08.

is the case. We are seeing an investment renaissance. You say

:20:09.:20:15.

that. Let me give you some facts. Under this Government, only one gas

:20:16.:20:20.

plant has been under construction, only one started under your watch

:20:21.:20:23.

for the others were done under Labour. You have none in the

:20:24.:20:27.

pipeline. The Big Six has pulled back from further investment

:20:28.:20:30.

including new offshore wind investment and none of what you're

:20:31.:20:32.

talking about will come before 2020 anyway. That's simply not true. The

:20:33.:20:39.

balance reserves I've talked about, the reserve planned: Making sure the

:20:40.:20:43.

mothballed plant could come on, I capacity market incentivising new

:20:44.:20:47.

power, will happen way before 2020, so that's not true. But doesn't

:20:48.:20:53.

answer the extra capacity. You have no answer between now and the end of

:20:54.:20:57.

this decade. We have three answers. Let me repeat them for you. I said

:20:58.:21:02.

permanent, not the short-term ones you are putting in place to try to

:21:03.:21:06.

do with spare capacity. We have a short-term plan, of course, that's

:21:07.:21:11.

very sensible. Medium-term plan, auctioning for new power stations.

:21:12.:21:15.

That can lead to both mothballed plant and when you plant, permanent

:21:16.:21:18.

plant being built, and the long-term plan, to stimulator long-term

:21:19.:21:25.

investment, some of which will be built and come online way before the

:21:26.:21:29.

end of the decade. I'm afraid, it's a far rosier picture than your

:21:30.:21:33.

painting. It's also far more expensive, too. Let's look at how

:21:34.:21:37.

you are replacing relatively cheap energy with much more expensive

:21:38.:21:42.

sources of energy. Wholesale prices is ?50 per megawatt. You have done a

:21:43.:21:49.

deal with EDF, nuclear, ?92 50. You have indexed it for 30 years at 2012

:21:50.:21:52.

prices. All of that puts up our bills. First

:21:53.:22:09.

of all, the support of the low Carbon is just 4% on bills. What has

:22:10.:22:14.

been driving peoples bills over the last decade has been wholesale gas

:22:15.:22:18.

prices. No one knows what guys prices are going to be in the future

:22:19.:22:23.

-- gas prices. When you look at the Ukraine and other market indicators,

:22:24.:22:26.

many people are worried that by the time nuclear power stations come

:22:27.:22:31.

online for example, the price of gas could be significantly higher. You

:22:32.:22:34.

have indexed linked that for them by the time you get any power from

:22:35.:22:40.

this, it'll be up to ?125 per megawatt hour. The price of gas been

:22:41.:22:47.

going up far higher. Not recently. Despite Iran, Ukraine, Libya, not

:22:48.:22:52.

recently. The long-term forecast, Andrew, it's going to go higher but

:22:53.:22:56.

more importantly than that, this is an area we could disagree on but

:22:57.:22:59.

it's very important that power plants pay the cost of pollution. In

:23:00.:23:05.

those prizes, all of those prices except the wholesale out a steep

:23:06.:23:08.

price, you have those power stations paying the cost of air pollution. If

:23:09.:23:13.

gas and coal where paying the proper carbon price, you would see nuclear

:23:14.:23:19.

and renewables as competitive. It's very important that we ensure that

:23:20.:23:23.

power plants pay the cost of the pollution. When you were last on

:23:24.:23:27.

this programme to talk about this in May 2012, you said that the price of

:23:28.:23:32.

offshore wind was coming down fast. You told me it would be down by 30%

:23:33.:23:38.

in the next few years. That figure is 155, and for the deeper stuff,

:23:39.:23:43.

it's going to be ?165. That's the first year of a limit control

:23:44.:23:47.

framework which had it coming down. If you talk to many companies,

:23:48.:23:54.

Siemens had invested with their partners, ?310 million with two new

:23:55.:24:03.

factories. They are talking about lower prices because what they are

:24:04.:24:09.

saying to me is that, rather than the 30% cost reductions I talked

:24:10.:24:12.

about, I was wrong, they are targeting 40%. You said prices would

:24:13.:24:18.

come down 30% in two years for that that was 2012 and they have gone

:24:19.:24:22.

higher. I absolutely did not say that. Your exact quote was 30% in

:24:23.:24:27.

the next few years. Your exact few years. You said two years, I sell a

:24:28.:24:32.

few years. I haven't changed a single moment that you said two

:24:33.:24:37.

years, I said a few years. That's what we are projecting. They will

:24:38.:24:40.

come down. You have to invest in technology. Let me give you this

:24:41.:24:45.

example. When people invest in mobile phones to start off with,

:24:46.:24:49.

they were expensive, and they were clunky and the costs were going down

:24:50.:24:57.

for the one final question. You put the Big Six into investigation

:24:58.:25:03.

because they made a 5% return on investment and you're done a deal

:25:04.:25:06.

with EDF, nuclear power, which will guarantee them a return of 10% - 15%

:25:07.:25:13.

every year for 30 years. Doesn't that underline the shambles of your

:25:14.:25:17.

energy policy? You have mixed up two separate things. The 5% Ofgem are

:25:18.:25:21.

talking about is on the supply retail side. The percentage you

:25:22.:25:25.

quoted for EDF is in the wholesale side of two different markets. It's

:25:26.:25:31.

the same return. It's not. You are comparing apples and pears,

:25:32.:25:34.

dangerous thing to do. You have to do have a high return but in the

:25:35.:25:40.

retail market, with a 5% stake, there is less risk, says a low

:25:41.:25:48.

return. Ed Davey, I'm sorry we haven't got more time. Thank you.

:25:49.:25:53.

Have me back. We will. Whatever happened to the BNP? The far right

:25:54.:25:57.

party looked as if it was on the verge of a major breakthrough not so

:25:58.:26:01.

long ago. Now it seems to be going nowhere. In a moment we'll be

:26:02.:26:03.

speaking to the party's press officer, Simon Derby. But first

:26:04.:26:06.

here's Giles. His report contains some flash photography. For a moment

:26:07.:26:09.

in 2009 Nick Griffin and the BNP had a spring in their step, smiling at

:26:10.:26:13.

their success of winning two seats in the European Parliament. They

:26:14.:26:16.

already were the second largest party in a London council and had a

:26:17.:26:20.

London Assembly seat. Despite concerns from mainstream parties

:26:21.:26:30.

their vote was up. Our vote increased up to 943,000. Savouring

:26:31.:26:34.

success was brief that morning as anti-far right protestors invaded

:26:35.:26:37.

and egged the press conference and forced the BNP MEPs into a hasty

:26:38.:26:42.

retreat. What is more significant is that, in the years since, that

:26:43.:26:44.

retreat has been matched internally, electorally and in the minds of

:26:45.:26:54.

those who had given them that vote. For a number of years they were

:26:55.:26:57.

performing better than the UK Independence Party and other smaller

:26:58.:27:01.

parties like the Greens and respect. The problem for the BNP if they

:27:02.:27:05.

didn't make any inroads into other groups, they didn't go into the

:27:06.:27:09.

middle class, the young, they didn't go into women and ethnic minorities

:27:10.:27:13.

for obvious reasons. So the party was quickly handicapped from the

:27:14.:27:17.

outset. Not that you would have known that at the outset. In 2006 in

:27:18.:27:21.

Barking and Dagenham, the party won 12 council seats against a back drop

:27:22.:27:24.

of discontent with the ruling Labour council and Government and picking

:27:25.:27:27.

up on immigration and housing concerns in the borough. It's

:27:28.:27:36.

because of all the different nationality people moving in the

:27:37.:27:38.

area, they are taking over everything. My Nan and grandad lived

:27:39.:27:44.

there all their lives. I thought I would vote for BNP. Hopefully, yeah,

:27:45.:27:51.

they will get elected over here. When I came to Barking, Dagenham and

:27:52.:27:56.

Redbridge in 2006, the BNP with a second largest party in one of the

:27:57.:28:00.

local councils. You can even find non-white people who voted BNP. Now

:28:01.:28:04.

they have no counsellors, and even though can when you talk to people,

:28:05.:28:07.

you will find among the older white working-class population concerned

:28:08.:28:12.

that the BNP claim to represent, everyone says they are nowhere. So

:28:13.:28:17.

what happened to that about? On behalf of all the people in Britain,

:28:18.:28:23.

we in Barking have not just beaten, that we have smashed the attempt of

:28:24.:28:29.

extremist outsiders. The local Labour MP was as clear in 2010 as

:28:30.:28:36.

she is now. I always knew if we could manage to ensure that wasn't a

:28:37.:28:40.

single BNP councillor left on the council and I won my seat, it would

:28:41.:28:43.

stop the process of disintegration. But what beat the BNP here in 2010

:28:44.:28:47.

was a mobilisation of the Labour vote. And today it is not hard to

:28:48.:28:50.

find the same discontent over the same issues. It's just finding a new

:28:51.:28:59.

political home. A couple of years ago, I used to vote Labour.

:29:00.:29:01.

Obviously, they haven't done nothing around here as much now, with jobs

:29:02.:29:06.

and unemployment, and housing and stuff like that about, basically,

:29:07.:29:11.

BNP ain't around here no more. Now it's more about UKIP and I believe

:29:12.:29:16.

that these UKIP are saying are true. If I thought BNP would make the

:29:17.:29:19.

difference, I would vote but is not in the people behind them. They all

:29:20.:29:24.

get bandaged with the same brush. I'm going to vote UKIP because BNP

:29:25.:29:29.

didn't get anywhere. What they say in UKIP, with a bit of luck, they

:29:30.:29:34.

will get somewhere. It's not racist but it's just that our kids haven't

:29:35.:29:38.

got jobs. Nick Griffin's dislike of UKIP is mutual but his once fellow

:29:39.:29:41.

MEP Andrew Brons who's now left the party issued a statement to this

:29:42.:29:44.

programme saying BNP failure is closer to home post 2010. It was

:29:45.:29:53.

after that election discontent arose amongst sections of the membership.

:29:54.:30:08.

Those members who left or were thrown out by Nick Griffin had

:30:09.:30:12.

already felt let down by his appearance on Question Time. It was

:30:13.:30:16.

a national platform for the BNP, something they felt they had the

:30:17.:30:24.

right to through electoral success. This was no big breakthrough moment

:30:25.:30:31.

for Griffin, unlike it was for John Marina pen when he appeared on

:30:32.:30:36.

national television in France. He went on to mobilise a national

:30:37.:30:39.

force. Despite there being some voters tuned to their message, for

:30:40.:30:42.

the BNP, becoming such a force here has never looked quite so difficult.

:30:43.:30:47.

And Simon Derby from the BNP joins me now. Welcome to the Sunday

:30:48.:30:55.

Politics. It was not long ago you had 55 councillors up and down the

:30:56.:31:00.

land, you now have two. You are on the brink of extinction. That is not

:31:01.:31:05.

true. I have watched the film. It is very negative as I would expect. The

:31:06.:31:10.

party has faced a few problems. The main thing to bear in mind is that

:31:11.:31:15.

the issues, the problems the country faces have gone away. We won nearly

:31:16.:31:22.

a million votes in the European elections. We brought that mandate

:31:23.:31:26.

to the establishment and we were denied. Let's face it, we would --

:31:27.:31:38.

were denied any opportunity to take place in the political apparatus.

:31:39.:31:42.

You have been destroyed by a pincer movement. UKIP has taken away or

:31:43.:31:49.

more respectable voters and the EDL is better at anti-Muslim protests

:31:50.:31:55.

and street thuggery. The EDL is not a political party. I take your point

:31:56.:32:00.

about UKIP. The power structure took a look at us and so we were a threat

:32:01.:32:04.

to power. We were not making this stuff up, we meant it and they have

:32:05.:32:10.

co-opted our message. This shameless promotion of UKIP, you have evenly

:32:11.:32:16.

had him presenting the weather on this programme. That is

:32:17.:32:20.

unbelievable. That was a joke. Across Europe, in France, your

:32:21.:32:26.

sister party the National front will probably do very well. You can see

:32:27.:32:30.

the rise of the far right across Western Europe so why are you in

:32:31.:32:35.

decline? We are not far right, I reject that label. How would you

:32:36.:32:46.

describe yourselves nationalists and Patriots. Why are you in decline and

:32:47.:32:59.

other similar parties to yours are on the rise? You mentioned Barking

:33:00.:33:03.

and it is very interesting because I was involved in that campaign. What

:33:04.:33:08.

Margaret Hodge and her Labour Party did, they replaced the white

:33:09.:33:13.

indigenous population in Barking and Dagenham with Africans, that is how

:33:14.:33:17.

they won that election. For that was true, you would be doing well

:33:18.:33:21.

elsewhere. You have now got a leader who is declared bankrupt and your

:33:22.:33:25.

party is heading for bankruptcy. No, it is not. It is over. You would

:33:26.:33:33.

like that. What I would like is irrelevant. Your membership is in

:33:34.:33:38.

deep decline. All parties have highs and lows. In 2009 they said it is no

:33:39.:33:44.

way you will win any seats in the European election. We did. And then

:33:45.:33:53.

you lost them. Parties win and lose seats. The Lib Dems will be

:33:54.:33:57.

annihilated. You deny you are far right. People used to say the BNP

:33:58.:34:06.

were neo-Nazis. Then Nick Griffin appeared with Golden Dawn. They are

:34:07.:34:13.

not neo-Nazis, they are Nazis. It is part and parcel of being in

:34:14.:34:19.

politics. You have to appear with them? Of course we do, we have to

:34:20.:34:26.

speak to ordinary people. I am perfectly happy speaking to you at

:34:27.:34:30.

the BBC, the BBC have a terrible reputation but I am happy to be

:34:31.:34:35.

here. Mr Griffin has asked me, when will the BBC apologised for trying

:34:36.:34:40.

to put him in prison twice, merely for exposing a Muslim scandal. Why

:34:41.:34:45.

can't Nick Griffin appear on TV and self? He would not appear. He was in

:34:46.:34:53.

Syria. He literally flew out to Damascus and prevented a war. We

:34:54.:35:00.

decided we would not interfere in Syria. The BBC never covered that.

:35:01.:35:05.

Please do not make out we are just an ordinary political party you

:35:06.:35:08.

cover like everybody else. It is completely different. All the signs

:35:09.:35:15.

are, membership, performance at the polls, performance at elections, the

:35:16.:35:20.

problem with your leadership is you are now going the way of the

:35:21.:35:24.

National front, heading for oblivion. As I said to you before,

:35:25.:35:30.

that may be the case, if all the problems we had not highlighted and

:35:31.:35:33.

how we got a huge vote so many years ago, six years ago now, five years

:35:34.:35:40.

ago, in 2009, if they were not around. These things are only going

:35:41.:35:44.

to get worse. We are looking at a prototype Islamic republic that is

:35:45.:35:48.

going to be set up in this country. That will lead to huge problems.

:35:49.:35:52.

Only the British National Party are prepared to say that and deal with

:35:53.:35:56.

it. Word leaked out that I was doing this interview with you before the

:35:57.:36:02.

weekend. Isn't it a sign of how irrelevant you now are that not a

:36:03.:36:06.

single person has turned up at New Broadcasting House this morning to

:36:07.:36:11.

protest? Used to be hundreds would turn up when we said the BNP were

:36:12.:36:16.

on. That is the left for you, they put the clocks forward and they

:36:17.:36:19.

could not be bothered to get out of bed. I think they are still in bed.

:36:20.:36:22.

Thank you. You're watching the Sunday Politics.

:36:23.:36:26.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now for Sunday

:36:27.:36:31.

Politics Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes, the

:36:32.:36:39.

Hello. On the Sunday Politics Wales, the health minister Mark Drakeford

:36:40.:36:45.

tells me about his plans for public health, and public toilets. Labour

:36:46.:36:50.

leader Ed Miliband says the Welsh NHS is on the right track. And would

:36:51.:36:55.

building thousands of new homes in Gwynedd and Anglesey be a disaster

:36:56.:37:01.

for the Welsh language? The NHS is much improved since

:37:02.:37:04.

devolution, so says the Labour Party. But First Minister Carwyn

:37:05.:37:08.

Jones told the party's Welsh conference yesterday that it must

:37:09.:37:11.

hold up its hands to some failings, including unacceptable examples of

:37:12.:37:18.

poor care. Well, Ed Miliband has heard a thing or two about the Welsh

:37:19.:37:22.

NHS. David Cameron regularly uses allegations of poor standards to

:37:23.:37:25.

attack Labour in the House of Commons. Mr Miliband also spoke to

:37:26.:37:30.

the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno yesterday, and afterwards

:37:31.:37:33.

the Labour leader spoke to our political editor Nick Servini.

:37:34.:37:42.

Ed Miliband, thank you for your time. We have just caught you after

:37:43.:37:47.

your speech. I want to start about -- want to talk to about the NHS.

:37:48.:37:53.

David Cameron talks about the Welsh NHS all the time, so let's talk

:37:54.:37:58.

about it. You acknowledge there were challenges, particularly with early

:37:59.:38:04.

diagnostics, care that elderly people, is that an acknowledgement

:38:05.:38:08.

there are problems with parts of the Welsh NHS? It is an acknowledgement

:38:09.:38:14.

that there are big challenges. There are big challenges that need to be

:38:15.:38:19.

met. We have an NHS in Wales that is underfunding pressure partly because

:38:20.:38:24.

of the fact that the Welsh budget is being cut by a significant amount. I

:38:25.:38:28.

think these are challenges that Carwyn Jones and Mark Drakeford take

:38:29.:38:36.

seriously. But in cancer treatment, there are positive stories. But

:38:37.:38:41.

there are areas, in diagnostics, for example, more money is being put in

:38:42.:38:47.

because of the challenges. The point about David Cameron is he wants to

:38:48.:38:50.

use the Welsh NHS so as not to talk about the English NHS, where he has

:38:51.:38:54.

done this huge top down reorganisation which nobody wanted,

:38:55.:38:59.

and he promised he wouldn't do. There are issues, and are no Carwyn

:39:00.:39:03.

Jones and Mark are working on it. David Cameron talks about the Welsh

:39:04.:39:06.

NHS because a lot of people are concerned about it. At Westminster

:39:07.:39:13.

level, you can't be happy that there is ammunition in Wales is being used

:39:14.:39:18.

to attack you and what you could conceivably do to an English NHS.

:39:19.:39:22.

What I would say is let's look at the record of the last Conservative

:39:23.:39:28.

government. When they were running the NHS in Wales, there were waiting

:39:29.:39:33.

times of two years for operations. I read don't think anybody in Wales is

:39:34.:39:38.

saying we need the Tories back running the NHS. People know there

:39:39.:39:42.

are challenges, people know that Carwyn Jones has acknowledge there

:39:43.:39:45.

are challenges, and here is seeking to sort them out. What people don't

:39:46.:39:49.

like is the idea of the Tory party chairman coming to Wales and saying,

:39:50.:39:54.

we want to target Wales, not to win votes in Wales but somehow try and

:39:55.:39:59.

use Wales for wider political purposes. I don't think that is what

:40:00.:40:02.

the people of Wales want to see, that isn't how we should conduct our

:40:03.:40:06.

politics. This is part of a big fight back from Labour this weekend.

:40:07.:40:11.

Shouldn't you have done this two months ago? There is this oil tanker

:40:12.:40:16.

of a narrative now that Wales is failing in many services. It seems

:40:17.:40:23.

you have been slow off the mark. I think we have a proud record in

:40:24.:40:26.

terms of some major achievements in Wales. If you look at the

:40:27.:40:31.

unemployment in Wales, lower Jewish and fees, keeping the educational

:40:32.:40:35.

maintenance allowance, better care for kids, flood defences, there is a

:40:36.:40:39.

good story to tell and we will tell it. But I think it is also fair to

:40:40.:40:44.

say that Carwyn has been focused on how to meet the challenges that

:40:45.:40:48.

remain in Wales. That is why he is such a good First Minister, because

:40:49.:40:52.

he is concentrating on meeting those challenges. The Tory party want to

:40:53.:40:57.

use Wales to try to make wider political points, not to help the

:40:58.:41:02.

people of Wales. Have you spoken to and Clywd? Yes, a number of times.

:41:03.:41:09.

Her concerns need to be taken seriously about the NHS. She had a

:41:10.:41:14.

particular personal experience, but it goes wider than that. Her issue

:41:15.:41:18.

is about care for older people, which is something we take

:41:19.:41:22.

seriously, and wider issues about mortality rates, so she has an

:41:23.:41:27.

important and valid point of view. Carwyn Jones publicly criticised

:41:28.:41:32.

over what she's doing. And there is a sense when you speak to party

:41:33.:41:36.

members a frustration and damage that she is doing to the party. Was

:41:37.:41:41.

he right to do that? I am not going to get into that debate. I

:41:42.:41:45.

understand there is difference is of opinion. I know from my

:41:46.:41:50.

conversations with Carwyn, he takes very seriously the issues that Anne

:41:51.:41:54.

razors because he knows the importance of having an NHS working

:41:55.:41:59.

for the people of Wales. Her concerns are being taken seriously

:42:00.:42:06.

both bike Carwyn and Mark Drakeford. Further devolution pals, you touched

:42:07.:42:13.

on it briefly, and you talked about a kind of tidy up and to make it

:42:14.:42:20.

clearer about who has got which power. -- further devolution

:42:21.:42:24.

powers. What about something more concrete which has been

:42:25.:42:30.

recommended, policing. You in favour of devolving? I'm in favour of

:42:31.:42:36.

talking about it. Let's look at the reserve powers models. We had a

:42:37.:42:40.

situation sometime back where the Conservative government was going to

:42:41.:42:44.

court to try to stop the Welsh government protecting their wages of

:42:45.:42:47.

agricultural wages through the agricultural wages board in Wales.

:42:48.:42:51.

We don't want that to happen. It is a sign of our trust in the Welsh

:42:52.:42:56.

Assembly government and in the model of devolution. We say we will move

:42:57.:43:01.

to the reserve powers in Wales that we have in Scotland. It is an

:43:02.:43:05.

important change, it will be welcomed by people as a sign that

:43:06.:43:09.

devolution is working, and it will add confidence to the people of

:43:10.:43:15.

Wales and to the Labour Party. Reform of the Barnett formula, the

:43:16.:43:18.

financial settlement that money comes to Wales and Scotland and

:43:19.:43:22.

Northern Ireland from Westminster. You appear to have a problem. You're

:43:23.:43:30.

the leader in Scotland, key wants to keep it, -- the data in Scotland

:43:31.:43:38.

wants to keep it, Carwyn Jones doesn't. What is going on? It has

:43:39.:43:44.

different impact on different parts of the country. It has served us

:43:45.:43:48.

well, but we have got to look as we did in our last general election

:43:49.:43:52.

manifesto at the specific issues Wales has in relation to this

:43:53.:43:55.

formula in relation to the funding. The Welsh Assembly government,

:43:56.:44:01.

Carwyn feels that the formula has a particular impact on Wales, which I

:44:02.:44:04.

understand, which is something we will look at. We have a review of

:44:05.:44:10.

public spending going on. I think the formula can continue to serve

:44:11.:44:14.

us, we have to look at Wales. So, a review of the formula? Know, the

:44:15.:44:23.

specific needs that Wales has and -- no, the specific needs that Wales

:44:24.:44:28.

has needs to be looked at. In terms of the context of all those attacks

:44:29.:44:32.

on Labour and the Welsh government, is this a party under siege? No,

:44:33.:44:38.

absolutely not. This is a party delivering for the people of Wales,

:44:39.:44:42.

and delivering on so many things that matter, like a implement,

:44:43.:44:45.

education, there's bread and butter issues. -- like unemployment. I met

:44:46.:44:54.

a young man yesterday who has been but back to work, and on some of

:44:55.:45:00.

these key issues, we have lessons to learn. This is a party moving

:45:01.:45:06.

forward, which has confidence about the European elections and the next

:45:07.:45:08.

general election. You heard Ed Miliband talk about

:45:09.:45:12.

pressure on the NHS. So as part of an effort to keep us healthy, and

:45:13.:45:15.

keep us out of the doctor's surgery, the Welsh government will publish a

:45:16.:45:18.

Public Health white paper on Wednesday. It'll include a proposal

:45:19.:45:22.

to force councils to make sure there are enough public toilets available.

:45:23.:45:25.

Back in Llandudno, Health Minister Mark Drakeford told me about his

:45:26.:45:28.

plans, and about how Labour responds to the political pressure on its

:45:29.:45:32.

record. Toilets for use by the public is a

:45:33.:45:36.

genuine public health issue in Wales. When I chaired the Health

:45:37.:45:40.

Committee in the Assembly, we conducted a one- day enquiry into

:45:41.:45:43.

the public health impact of not having sufficient toilets for use by

:45:44.:45:47.

the public. We received a tremendous response, particularly from

:45:48.:45:48.

organisations representing older people. We know that if people are

:45:49.:45:54.

not confident that they will have the facilities they need, then it

:45:55.:45:57.

has a distorting effect on their lives. They stay at home when they'd

:45:58.:46:02.

like to go out, they don't take tablets they need to take in order

:46:03.:46:07.

to be able to go out. And, for older people, people with some mental

:46:08.:46:09.

health conditions, people with young families and children, a fact they

:46:10.:46:13.

need to be confident that there are proper facilities that they can use,

:46:14.:46:17.

that they want to be out in our society is a genuine public health

:46:18.:46:23.

issue. If public toilets are so important, then why not provide the

:46:24.:46:27.

money to keep them open? Because that is the reason they close,

:46:28.:46:30.

councils can't afford them. In an age of austerity, the answer simply

:46:31.:46:34.

cannot be to find more money for it. What we have to do is be more

:46:35.:46:38.

imaginative in the way we think about this. And you'll see in the

:46:39.:46:41.

White Paper we don't talk about public toilets. We talk about

:46:42.:46:44.

toilets for use by the public. And what will expect local

:46:45.:46:47.

authorities... What is the difference between the two? The

:46:48.:46:50.

difference is that there are large numbers, we think, of potential

:46:51.:46:53.

facilities that are not thought of as public toilets but which are

:46:54.:46:56.

toilets provided by the public purse which we believe local authorities,

:46:57.:46:59.

planning properly, will be able to make more of so that people

:47:00.:47:02.

understand that if there is a toilet available in the leisure centre, in

:47:03.:47:05.

their community Centre, in a library, in an arts centre, all of

:47:06.:47:09.

which are being paid for by the public purse, those are toilets

:47:10.:47:12.

available for use by the public. But we know that older people are

:47:13.:47:16.

nervous of going into those places in case they are somehow challenged.

:47:17.:47:22.

"What are you doing in here? You shouldn't be doing this." Well, we

:47:23.:47:25.

know that isn't the case. And we want local authorities to plan for

:47:26.:47:29.

exactly that. There are other things in the White Paper, I expect. We

:47:30.:47:32.

know what the government's position is on the minimum pricing of alcohol

:47:33.:47:36.

and last time on the Sunday Politics, you told us your opinion

:47:37.:47:39.

of e-cigarettes. What else can we expect to see in your White Paper?

:47:40.:47:43.

Well, I have been very keen that we have a White Paper which is

:47:44.:47:46.

intensely practical, which looks at measures, practical things that we

:47:47.:47:49.

can do, across that great swathe of things that make such a difference

:47:50.:47:53.

to future health. So, that includes smoking, it includes e-cigarettes,

:47:54.:47:55.

it includes alcohol, it includes obesity, but there will be other

:47:56.:48:01.

things in the White Paper as well. Our aim is to take practical action,

:48:02.:48:05.

using the legislative powers the Assembly has to improve the future

:48:06.:48:10.

health of the nation. Put it another way, your aim is to keep people

:48:11.:48:14.

healthy so they don't have to go to the doctor or to the hospital. We

:48:15.:48:18.

heard in Ed Miliband's speech that there is pressure on the NHS and

:48:19.:48:22.

challenges for the Welsh government. You had a lot of criticism from your

:48:23.:48:27.

opponents. Is that justified criticism? I've never argued that

:48:28.:48:31.

everything is perfect in the Welsh NHS. Nor that there are things that

:48:32.:48:36.

we work very hard at everyday with staff in the service to do better in

:48:37.:48:41.

the future. But what Ed Miliband was referring to was that cynical,

:48:42.:48:45.

deliberate... Organised effort by the Conservative Party in London,

:48:46.:48:48.

not simply to attack the NHS, not to attack Welsh Labour, not to attack

:48:49.:48:55.

even a Welsh Labour government. But as Grant Shapps, the Conservative

:48:56.:48:58.

Chairman, said, when he was here in Wales, to attack Wales as part of

:48:59.:49:03.

their election strategy. And that's absolutely not acceptable to us.

:49:04.:49:08.

It's not acceptable to people who work in the health service. And it's

:49:09.:49:13.

certainly not acceptable to people who rely on the services it provides

:49:14.:49:17.

every single day. But they now say, hang on, you're trying to describe

:49:18.:49:20.

this as a war on Wales because you don't want to defend your record.

:49:21.:49:24.

Because look at the waiting times. And you don't have a record to

:49:25.:49:28.

defend. I am absolutely happy to defend our record. The standard

:49:29.:49:31.

waiting time in Wales, from referral to treatment, is 11 weeks. Contrast

:49:32.:49:35.

that when the Tories were in power in Wales. They couldn't even manage

:49:36.:49:40.

an 18 month waiting time target. We can defend our record because our

:49:41.:49:43.

record in Wales is one of steady investment, steady improvement, and

:49:44.:49:46.

meeting the needs of the Welsh public. What we will not do is allow

:49:47.:49:51.

our opponents to portray the exceptional as the typical. To point

:49:52.:49:57.

to the few failings, which appear in any organisation, which we are

:49:58.:50:01.

determined to put right. And to make those failings appear as though they

:50:02.:50:05.

tell the story. When what we know is that every single day right across

:50:06.:50:09.

Wales the NHS does amazing good in the lives of the Welsh people. Mark

:50:10.:50:14.

Drakeford, thank you very much. Thank you.

:50:15.:50:18.

Nick Servini our political editor is still at the Welsh Labour conference

:50:19.:50:21.

where delegates have this morning heard from shadow Welsh Secretary

:50:22.:50:33.

Owen Smith. What did he say? Well, he has just finished speaking. The

:50:34.:50:37.

delegates have been pouring out of the auditorium. We were promised

:50:38.:50:42.

something meaty in terms of the constitutional settlement and we got

:50:43.:50:46.

something. We got a much clearer idea of what it would mean if Labour

:50:47.:50:52.

won the next general election. What and Smith said was that he would

:50:53.:50:56.

push, subject to fairer funding, which I will talk about in a minute,

:50:57.:51:01.

and a referendum, following a model that has been proposed by the

:51:02.:51:03.

Scottish Labour Party which would give Welsh government of 15p in the

:51:04.:51:12.

pound on income tax. The crucial bit is there is already a model of

:51:13.:51:16.

income tax that is in the process of being devolved. It is a rigid

:51:17.:51:20.

structure meaning any changes of any of the bands have to be mirrored

:51:21.:51:23.

right across the different bands. Under this proposal, there would be

:51:24.:51:29.

leeway for a Welsh government to increase the top rate of income

:51:30.:51:33.

tax. So, in theory, the Welsh government could save that they

:51:34.:51:40.

could reintroduce the 50p top band tax on income. A couple of things to

:51:41.:51:48.

say. Firstly, it depends on what a future Labour government would do on

:51:49.:51:51.

fairer funding from the allocation from Westminster. Ed Miliband, when

:51:52.:51:56.

I spoke to him earlier, he said they would look at this. He said there

:51:57.:52:01.

would be no major commitment to do that. Also, Owen Smith, in a way,

:52:02.:52:06.

putting a brake on some of the expectations by saying it is not a

:52:07.:52:09.

priority for them to change income tax at the moment. And the message

:52:10.:52:17.

from him is that if Labour was to win the next general election, there

:52:18.:52:21.

would be some powers but it would only go so far. In a radio interview

:52:22.:52:26.

this morning he was talking about while devolution may evolve, he said

:52:27.:52:32.

we are approaching the endgame in terms of the devolution process.

:52:33.:52:38.

Something in Carwyn Jones speech struck me yesterday, when he

:52:39.:52:42.

described the situation of the Tory attacks on his records as Wales

:52:43.:52:45.

versus Conservative Central office, do you get the sense that his troops

:52:46.:52:52.

in Llandudno like his fighting talk was Mac it was very striking. --

:52:53.:52:58.

like his fighting talk? It was very striking. It is a two horse fight

:52:59.:53:01.

here between the Labour and Conservatives. And I get the

:53:02.:53:05.

impression they are happy for it to be that way. The Lib Dems, Plaid

:53:06.:53:11.

Cymru and UKIP, the danger for them is they will be edged out of this

:53:12.:53:16.

debate in the general election campaign during the next year. In

:53:17.:53:20.

terms of the strategy we have seen from Carwyn Jones and Ed Miliband

:53:21.:53:25.

this weekend, there were easy elements and hard elements. The hard

:53:26.:53:29.

bit, and it will be interesting to see to what extent Carwyn Jones

:53:30.:53:35.

admitted to problems in the NHS. If you didn't do that, he would risk

:53:36.:53:38.

the accusation he is in denial. If there is too much, he gives

:53:39.:53:42.

ammunition to the political opponents. He talked about problems

:53:43.:53:48.

with diagnostics, problems with complacency in senior management,

:53:49.:53:51.

and problems with the complaints system. That is further than he has

:53:52.:53:55.

ever gone before in terms of admitting some of the problems in

:53:56.:54:00.

the NHS. The easy bit, and you are here yesterday to hear a lot of

:54:01.:54:04.

this, is this scrap they are building and gearing up for with the

:54:05.:54:08.

Conservatives. In a fortnight, we have the Welsh Conservatives

:54:09.:54:12.

conference, an opportunity for them to fight back. But it is a real

:54:13.:54:17.

sense of satisfaction, I think, from the Labour Party members that this

:54:18.:54:21.

is the terms of the battle ahead for the next year. Good to talk to you,

:54:22.:54:25.

thank you for joining us. Opponents to a blueprint for more

:54:26.:54:28.

housing across Gwynedd and Anglesey say it could be disastrous for the

:54:29.:54:32.

Welsh language. Campaigners say proposals to build 8,000 homes in

:54:33.:54:35.

the two counties overestimate the local need for housing. Gwynedd

:54:36.:54:38.

Council's leader says they're balancing the need for affordable

:54:39.:54:41.

homes with protection for the language. Bethan Lewis has more.

:54:42.:54:50.

Making sure there's enough housing available is one of government's

:54:51.:54:54.

basic functions. But questions about where new houses are located are

:54:55.:55:00.

often hugely controversial. Here in Penrhos Garnedd in Bangor, there has

:55:01.:55:04.

been a lot of opposition to two new proposals to build new homes. The

:55:05.:55:09.

work's already started on this site with 250 new houses are being built.

:55:10.:55:14.

At the moment, a plan is being considered to build a further 360

:55:15.:55:21.

new homes on a site nearby. The concerns raised here about the

:55:22.:55:24.

impact on local services and on language are the big issues in a

:55:25.:55:27.

wider debate in Gwynedd and Anglesey about future housing needs.

:55:28.:55:32.

Yesterday, Cymdeithas yr Iaith, the Welsh language society, held a rally

:55:33.:55:38.

in Caernarvon. They say that plans for 8,000 new houses for their two

:55:39.:55:41.

counties over the next decade will damage the language. They question

:55:42.:55:45.

the need for and affordability of the housing for local people. And

:55:46.:55:51.

fear it'll be taken up in large part by people moving into the area. The

:55:52.:55:56.

people who are moving, who do not speak Welsh, will probably not learn

:55:57.:56:02.

Welsh. And we've seen over the past ten years with the results of the

:56:03.:56:05.

last census that the number of Welsh speakers in Gwynedd have gone down

:56:06.:56:11.

markedly. And with more and more housing being built for people who

:56:12.:56:14.

move in from outside the area, that is only going to have a bigger

:56:15.:56:18.

impact and put more pressure on the Welsh language. Every local

:56:19.:56:22.

authority has to draw up a local development plan, setting out how

:56:23.:56:25.

many new homes are needed and where they should be located. Gwynedd and

:56:26.:56:31.

Anglesey's plan is a joint one over a 15 year period. At the moment,

:56:32.:56:35.

they're planning for 8,400 extra homes.

:56:36.:56:39.

In Gwynedd, the council says that a closer look suggests there will be

:56:40.:56:44.

far fewer new-builds than opponents suggest. The overall figure for

:56:45.:56:52.

Gwynedd alone is 4,700 homes. But the council says over 1,800 have

:56:53.:56:55.

already been built or have been given planning permission. And a

:56:56.:57:00.

further 1,000 will be provided by converting or updating existing

:57:01.:57:05.

buildings in the large towns. That means, they say, that new land is

:57:06.:57:08.

needed for fewer than 2,000 new homes. Gwynedd's council leader from

:57:09.:57:13.

Plaid Cymru argues they are sensitive to concerns about the

:57:14.:57:18.

language. If something like 200 or so homes, new homes a year, which is

:57:19.:57:22.

not a substantial figure, and, I think, actually, we are aiming to

:57:23.:57:25.

strike the balance between meeting the housing need and making sure

:57:26.:57:28.

that we don't upset that balance of the linguistic, social and economic

:57:29.:57:39.

make-up of our communities. But there are concerns within the Plaid

:57:40.:57:44.

Cymru group on the council. In a letter to colleagues, one Plaid

:57:45.:57:46.

Cymru Parliamentary candidate said she feared it could cost the party

:57:47.:57:49.

politically and could endanger holding on to the their seats. That

:57:50.:57:57.

is not my opinion. And I think that is based on evidence of what I hear

:57:58.:58:01.

on a daily basis. People are looking for a party and members of

:58:02.:58:04.

Parliament and Assembly Members who will respond to the agenda that we

:58:05.:58:11.

face. Welsh government figures are the starting point for council's

:58:12.:58:15.

housing plans. Gwynedd and Anglesey council say they've successfully

:58:16.:58:17.

challenged the government's feud on the projected population increase in

:58:18.:58:23.

their areas. One North Wales Assembly Member says there is a

:58:24.:58:27.

wider concern about the figures. I think the biggest problem is the

:58:28.:58:30.

number of houses that the Welsh government is suggesting should be

:58:31.:58:34.

built in certain areas. And, clearly, some of the local

:58:35.:58:36.

authorities have had increased the number of houses that they are

:58:37.:58:40.

willing to build, whilst there are still some others who, in some

:58:41.:58:43.

instances, are having to go back to the drawing board. And, others,

:58:44.:58:48.

where there are still ongoing discussions. The Welsh government

:58:49.:58:53.

says the councils are able to challenge the figures but,

:58:54.:58:55.

ultimately, it's the council's responsibility to identify the

:58:56.:59:00.

housing needs of their areas. In Gwynedd, the issue's prompted

:59:01.:59:03.

protest and passionate argument on both sides. And, with two years left

:59:04.:59:08.

before the plan's finalised, that is set to continue.

:59:09.:59:14.

That report from Bethan Lewis. And that's all from us this week. We're

:59:15.:59:23.

well conference season. We've heard from Plaid Cymru and labour, next

:59:24.:59:28.

weekend, it is the turn of the Welsh Liberal Democrats who will be

:59:29.:59:31.

holding their spring conference at the University of Wales in Newport.

:59:32.:59:34.

boundaries. Sorry, run out of time. Thanks very much indeed. Andrew,

:59:35.:59:35.

back to you. Now let's get more from our

:59:36.:59:49.

political panel. If the BNP finished? They were never

:59:50.:59:54.

spectacularly successful to begin with but one of my childhood

:59:55.:59:57.

memories was a huge fuss in London about the fact that they won a few

:59:58.:00:01.

council seat on the Isle of dogs back in 1993. That was enough to

:00:02.:00:04.

cause a panic. As if they are falling from a great tit and I think

:00:05.:00:07.

the big difference with the National front in France is that they are

:00:08.:00:12.

building on decades of successful that they finished second in the

:00:13.:00:15.

presence of elections in 2002, I think. And, even in the 60s, they

:00:16.:00:21.

were versions of their politics. So they are building on a lot whereas

:00:22.:00:25.

the BNP are working with incredibly few raw materials in this country.

:00:26.:00:33.

It is interesting that the BNP does seem to be in decline in terms of

:00:34.:00:39.

its membership and financially, but in France, the far right party, not

:00:40.:00:45.

as far right as the BNP, but pretty far right, will probably do well in

:00:46.:00:49.

the second round of the French local elections. You could say the same

:00:50.:00:56.

about Golden Dawn in Greece. Parties prosper when the picture is

:00:57.:01:02.

pre-rolled for them. If mainstream parties talk endlessly about

:01:03.:01:05.

immigration, saying you cannot get a council house because it has gone to

:01:06.:01:08.

an immigrant instead of saying it is because there are not enough council

:01:09.:01:11.

houses, that creates the conditions in which the far right can thrive.

:01:12.:01:16.

We are lucky that all the members of the BNP fell out with each other. As

:01:17.:01:21.

extreme members of the far right and left do. You can see that with the

:01:22.:01:27.

comedian in France, he has got a lot of support from people on the left

:01:28.:01:35.

as well. I asked Simon Derby was here victim of a pincer movement

:01:36.:01:41.

that UKIP were taken away voters and EDL has captured the Street protest.

:01:42.:01:52.

Yes, and Giles still not mention that the Labour Party has got its

:01:53.:01:55.

act together. They got the act together in Dagenham. Margaret Hodge

:01:56.:02:00.

and Jon Cruddas did a very good job. I think UKIP would say, not a racist

:02:01.:02:06.

party but they are picking up votes from people who would once have

:02:07.:02:11.

voted BNP. But it is interesting the difference between Britain and

:02:12.:02:17.

France. Why is it that the Front Nationale came second in 2002 when

:02:18.:02:25.

they are not far right? I think they were on a five-year cycle because

:02:26.:02:31.

the next election was 2007. 2002 they came second when Jean-Marie Le

:02:32.:02:40.

Pen came second. They are not as far right as the BNP. Marine has put

:02:41.:02:50.

them -- cleaned them up a bit. Diplomatically there is a much

:02:51.:02:55.

harder vote which spreads further across the electorate in France than

:02:56.:02:59.

there is in this country. This is a much more tolerant country. If

:03:00.:03:13.

Marine Le Pen does well today, she will not win that many because the

:03:14.:03:17.

centre-right and centre-left will always gang up against terror in the

:03:18.:03:21.

second round, but it sets the tone for the European elections. It does

:03:22.:03:27.

and for the next French presidential election as well. I think what she's

:03:28.:03:31.

doing masterfully is combining a far right politics with what you might

:03:32.:03:36.

call a far left economic politics. She's not just picking up votes from

:03:37.:03:41.

xenophobes, she is picking up votes from who feel victimised from

:03:42.:03:46.

globalisation. They are people who would be voting for socialists but

:03:47.:03:50.

are put off by the current president. That is what I do not

:03:51.:03:53.

think the British far right parties have been able to do. You sort Simon

:03:54.:03:58.

Derby try to tell you that the BNP are not far right party. I think he

:03:59.:04:03.

was going to say if you look at issues of protectionism, standing up

:04:04.:04:06.

against globalisation, they are quite statist. That is where the

:04:07.:04:13.

phrase National Socialist comes from. That is why a little bit of

:04:14.:04:18.

electoral success is often a killer for far right parties. They get a

:04:19.:04:22.

few council seats and then they are rubbish. They are not getting

:04:23.:04:26.

people's bins collected so they become part of the system that

:04:27.:04:29.

people were voting against in the first place. Lets go on to the

:04:30.:04:35.

Labour Party. If you are a Labour Party supporter and you want to be

:04:36.:04:39.

cheered up, you pick up the Sunday Times where you see a poll where the

:04:40.:04:44.

leader is up to seven points. If you are Tory Lib Dem and you want to be

:04:45.:04:48.

cheered up, you pick up the Observer, the left-wing paper, where

:04:49.:04:54.

the Labour leader is still 1%. I have read in the paper that there is

:04:55.:04:58.

quite a lot of of the record briefings going on at the top of the

:04:59.:05:03.

Labour Party. Give us a sense of the mood. Clearly, they are unsettled.

:05:04.:05:08.

One pol looks OK but there has been a run of polls where there is a lead

:05:09.:05:18.

over the Tories which is closing. There are worrying number of people

:05:19.:05:24.

who are what are called the 35s and they are people who thought all the

:05:25.:05:29.

Labour Party needs to do is sit still because there are a number of

:05:30.:05:33.

Liberal Democrat voters who hate the coalition. Because the Conservatives

:05:34.:05:38.

did not get through the boundary changes they needed to win, we can

:05:39.:05:42.

sit tight and it will all be fine. What a few wise old heads are

:05:43.:05:47.

concerned about is they feel this has a feel of 1987 about it when the

:05:48.:05:52.

Labour Party was united. They had a very good leader. The leader was

:05:53.:05:57.

impressive, the party was united and then what happened? They met the

:05:58.:06:01.

British people and an election. The British people said, terribly sorry,

:06:02.:06:06.

you are not occupying the party political territory where we will

:06:07.:06:10.

vote for you. There are some people from the Blair era who say it feels

:06:11.:06:14.

a bit complacent and there may be a bit of a shock when they meet the

:06:15.:06:21.

voters. We talk about people being unsettled but Ed Miliband is not

:06:22.:06:25.

unsettled. His defining characteristic is you might call it

:06:26.:06:29.

steadiness or you might call it a lack of agility. He could not

:06:30.:06:32.

respond to the pension stuff in the budget which was thrown at him. But

:06:33.:06:37.

he's very good at separating the signal from the noise. They may

:06:38.:06:40.

think this will all change in me. The Tories may be on the back foot

:06:41.:06:45.

after the European elections. He has the ability to set the political

:06:46.:06:49.

weather. He did it with the price freeze. There is no doubt that Mr

:06:50.:06:57.

Davey would not be referring these energy companies to the competition

:06:58.:07:00.

authorities if it had not been for that speech by the Labour leader.

:07:01.:07:04.

And we read today he has come up with another policy which will be

:07:05.:07:08.

attention grabbing to cut student tuition fees. It is easy to forget

:07:09.:07:13.

that before he announced the price freeze he was in as much vertical

:07:14.:07:18.

trouble as he is now. I think the Labour poll lead will expand up to

:07:19.:07:25.

five or 6% by the summer, assuming the Tories do badly. The question

:07:26.:07:31.

is, is five or 6% enough? Nick through the analogy with 1987. This

:07:32.:07:37.

reminds me of the Conservatives in 2009/10. You have a steadily sinking

:07:38.:07:41.

poll lead, differences in what campaign they should be running and

:07:42.:07:45.

personal animosity behind the scenes. It led to them throwing away

:07:46.:07:50.

an election which seemed to be winnable. There is an important

:07:51.:07:57.

difference with the 1980s which was because you did not know when the

:07:58.:08:00.

election would be. Will it be in 87 or 88? They do not need to make up

:08:01.:08:06.

their mind until next year. What they are telling the pollsters now,

:08:07.:08:09.

we do not like this government because of course, you do not like

:08:10.:08:12.

the government. But next January or February they will be making up

:08:13.:08:18.

their minds. Is there a lot of animosity among the leading Labour

:08:19.:08:23.

figures behind-the-scenes? It must be personal or tactical because

:08:24.:08:27.

there are not big ideological differences between them, is there?

:08:28.:08:33.

Yes and no. What is striking is how little support Miliband gets from

:08:34.:08:38.

the shadow cabinet. He does not have outriders. That has been a

:08:39.:08:43.

continuous theme. Said he feels he is on his own? That they feel they

:08:44.:08:47.

do not get support from him. There was a column by Jenni Russell saying

:08:48.:08:55.

he is distant and detached. And Andrew Walmsley touched on this in

:08:56.:09:01.

the Observer. One of the divisions is Ed versus Ed. There is a terrible

:09:02.:09:06.

structural problem between those two. It is a real problem. Ed

:09:07.:09:10.

Miliband believes Ed Balls has not done enough to get economic red

:09:11.:09:16.

ability. Ed Balls believes Ed Miliband is making airy fairy

:09:17.:09:19.

speeches and it will not cut with the electorate. Neither Mr Cameron

:09:20.:09:24.

nor Mr Miller band took part in the debate which happened earlier this

:09:25.:09:28.

week between the Lib Dems and UKIP. We have got another one coming up on

:09:29.:09:34.

the BBC on Wednesday night. Let's remind ourselves of what happened in

:09:35.:09:39.

last week's debate. I will ask Nick to open the batting.

:09:40.:09:47.

We are better off in Europe... Frankly not working any more. A

:09:48.:09:52.

referendum on Europe. I agree with you. I agree with you. If you can

:09:53.:09:59.

read the small print. Pull up the drawbridge, pool drawbridge up... We

:10:00.:10:09.

have 485 million people... It is simply not true! Not true. Not true.

:10:10.:10:15.

Not true. Identical with Nick. I don't agree with Nick. Based on

:10:16.:10:23.

facts, facts, the facts, facts, the facts... Thank God we did not listen

:10:24.:10:29.

to you. The food is getting better here. Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. You

:10:30.:10:37.

have never had a proper job. Great not little England. Good night.

:10:38.:10:44.

I think it is seven o'clock BBC Two. Helen, what was the outcome of that

:10:45.:10:49.

and how do we mark our card for this week? It was not a great time for

:10:50.:10:54.

pundits. Everybody called the debate for Nick and then they said

:10:55.:10:59.

actually, we think it has gone the other way. Consensus emerged later

:11:00.:11:06.

on that Nick Clegg made a difficult argument. I think the most important

:11:07.:11:09.

thing Nigel Farage said was he distinguished out the immigration

:11:10.:11:14.

policy by saying we're not just closing day over, we want people to

:11:15.:11:19.

come, we just do not want mass EU immigration. That is an important

:11:20.:11:21.

thing for him to say to get away from the echoes of the far right. I

:11:22.:11:26.

suspect Nick Clegg will not ask us to read the small print. That was 11

:11:27.:11:34.

turn he took. It compounded his reputation for being sneaky. I

:11:35.:11:38.

slightly disagree about the pundits. I say this as someone who thought

:11:39.:11:44.

far it would win. -- Nigel Farage would win. The fact that the public

:11:45.:11:49.

disagree with you and the public favoured Nigel Farage does not mean

:11:50.:11:56.

the public were wrong. The question is, who is going to tune in for the

:11:57.:12:01.

second one? What is the answer to that? Phil Collins argument is a man

:12:02.:12:08.

who is on 8% is fantastic. It is a binary choice in this debate.

:12:09.:12:13.

Clearly they need to brush up on opposite areas. Nigel Farage needs

:12:14.:12:17.

to brush up on facts and Nick Clegg needs to brush up on the motions

:12:18.:12:20.

because he did not connect very well. Where Nick Clegg may go after

:12:21.:12:26.

Nigel Farage is when the -- when he said the EU has blood on its hands

:12:27.:12:30.

with Ukraine. He then came back to talk about the vanity of EU foreign

:12:31.:12:35.

policy and said European Union had made what was going on in Syria

:12:36.:12:39.

worse. It is one thing to say I do not think the UK should be part of

:12:40.:12:43.

the joint European foreign policy, it is part of another thing to say

:12:44.:12:47.

that Europe which will act with or without the UK is responsible for

:12:48.:12:51.

blood on the streets of Kiev and also responsible for exacerbating

:12:52.:12:56.

the Civil War in Syria. Maybe an hour is too long for Nigel Farage's

:12:57.:13:03.

shtick? That may be the case but Nick Clegg has precedence. He does

:13:04.:13:07.

that show and he has had to deal with the worst thing with dealing

:13:08.:13:11.

with what is thrown at him so he has honed his view consistently. We will

:13:12.:13:16.

see what happens in part two. That's all for this week. The Daily

:13:17.:13:20.

Politics is on BBC Two at lunchtime every day this week. I'll be here

:13:21.:13:23.

next week at the usual time of 11 o'clock. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:24.:13:25.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:26.:13:33.

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