10/01/2016 Sunday Politics Wales

David Cameron says he's hopeful for a deal next month

on a new relationship between Britain and the European Union.

Is momentum building for a referendum this summer?

He sacked two ministers, prompting three to resign

but is Jeremy Corbyn in a more powerful position at the end

of a tumultuous week for the Labour Party?

We'll speak to Shadow Cabinet Minister Lucy Powell.

Later in the programme, Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt

will Jeremy Corbyn help or hinder Labour in May's Assembly elections?

And what are the lessons to be learned from last month's floods?

and we will talking about fares, housing, and whether things

We're ten days into 2016 and we've not sacked them and they've not

resigned yet, so with me, the best and the brightest political

panel in the business, Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.

So David Cameron toured Europe last week continuing his re-negotiation

of Britain's EU membership ahead of the referendum.

He knows that whatever he comes back with will not persuade

So they will be free to campaign for an exit.

But this morning the Prime Minister made it clearer than ever

that he would be campaigning to stay in the EU.

My aim is clear, the best of both worlds for Britain, the massive

prize of sorting out what frustrates us about Europe, but staying in a

reformed Europe. The prize is closer than it was and I will work around

the clock to get that done. The government will not be neutral about

this issue with people on one side or the other, my intention is that

at the conclusion of the negotiation, the Cabinet reaches a

clear recommendation for the British people on what we will do. I hope

that we'll be staying in a reformed European Union, because I have got a

good negotiation for Britain. At that point, clear government

position, members of the Cabinet, ministers with

long-standing, long-held views on a different basis, they will be able

to campaign. And we're joined now

by the eurosceptic Conservative MP, Who should lead the out campaign? I

do not think personalities matter. The Prime Minister matters because

he has a big personality. For the out campaign, you have Nigella

Lawson, other people. No doubt you will have four five Cabinet

ministers. Does it not need to be a better known public figure than

Nigel Lawson, who was Chancellor in the 1980s, or Chris Grayling or even

yourself? No, people will not make their decision on the basis of which

pretty face is leading the campaign. They will make it on one basis

alone, will it be good for my job or bad for my job? The argument will be

about economic is, jobs, not these other bogus numbers that come up, it

will be about my job, is my industry protected? Boris Johnson, Theresa

May? There will be lots of our timid in Westminster, should Boris lead,

it will not matter. What matters is the tactics and strategy. That will

be decided before the conclusion of the negotiation. Nigel Farage has

had a torrid time since the general election, culminating in the

assassination attempt that apparently was not. Is he a

liability to the leave campaign? No, probably not. He has about 3 million

people who are supporting him. Some of them in his party? He is his

party, to a large extent. I do not think is a liability, everyone knows

what he and his party are like. Has he got lots of credibility? It has

slipped backwards since the general election. I do not think the parties

matter. The personalities do not matter. This will be a personal

decision. What percentage of Tory MPs do you reckon we'll leave? It is

a majority, I do not know what the number will be. If you did it

tomorrow and there was no other effect, probably two thirds. Really,

is that including the payroll vote? Yes. So two thirds of the

Conservative Parliamentary party will vote to leave? Yes, if you did

it tomorrow. But you have to be in mind the dynamics. You, like me,

have lived through a lot of prime ministers and ministers returning

from Europe and declaring victory. They arrive on Monday at 330 and

declare their victory. We have no other information. None of it is

published, the decisions had been taken in private with no

journalists. There will be a sort of wave out of that. Out of that, two

thirds will evaporate. Come the day, even 50% of the Conservative Party?

I should think so. How many Cabinet ministers will exercise their right

to campaign to leave? Not more than half a dozen, 56 maybe. I cannot

think of more. Iain Duncan Smith? Iain Duncan Smith, maybe Theresa

May, maybe sad you jab it, certainly Chris Grayling. Maybe Iain Duncan

Smith. What is your reaction this morning to the story that senior

officials in Downing Street are vetting or altering speeches by

ministers to tone down Eurosceptic comments? My speeches go back 20

years or so. Is this the start of the government machine getting

moving? Yes. There are three things David Cameron said that were

important. David Cameron made it plain that the government machine

will go crazy on one side of this side image. It has started. Nothing

unusual in that, by the way. David Cameron might get some sort of deal

which curtails in work benefits for migrants. Is that a game changer,

does it change it his way? He said, or something equally powerful, not

important at all. Why do people come from Romania to hear? They come

because the minimum wage is twice as big as the average wage in Rumania.

And about to get bigger. In 2020, according to the Treasury strategy,

tax credits will not matter, which is why they wanted to abolish them.

In 2020, this whole strategy will be relevant. What is your best guess

for the date of the referendum? Probably September this year. Not in

summer? It might, but they have limitations built into the law. If

they get it through in February, they might get the summer, but I do

not think they will get it through in February. Bear in mind they have

four basic claims, only one of which has really been talked about at the

moment. Some of the others, the parliamentary proposals, the defence

of the city, the euro, all of this, it will either be just words and not

matter, which is weird lips at the moment, or it will be serious. The

city basically needs a veto in European legislation relating to

financial services. If it does not get that, it is meaningless. If

David Cameron loses the referendum, does he have to resign as Prime

Minister? That is the least important question. Is there an

answer? I do not know. Should they? Not necessarily, it depends on how

it goes with the terms. He said this morning there is no plans for a

British exit. This is disgraceful. You have two moderately likely

outcomes. We do not know which will be. There were no plans for Scottish

independence. I suspect there were. There are no plans for the British

exit and that is serious because it is a complicated operation to carry

out if it happens. We will be returning to you, David Davis, thank

you. Nick, there is no doubt that the

Prime Minister is gearing up to campaign disdain with he brings back

from Brussels. Absolutely, he is determined to keep Britain in the

European Union. His official languages that he wants to

renegotiate better terms and if he gets the right deal, he will keep

them, but the mask slip today when Andrew Marr asked about British

exit, the preparations for that, and he said it was not the right answer.

Today, the other interesting things he did was a reprieve is of the

Scottish referendum. He was saying that if you are -- that if you lost

the referendum he would not resign. He wants to get that message out

there because he wants to kill the idea of a link between his future

and the referendum results. With the Scottish referendum, in private they

prepared a resignation later. He made clear to Andrew Marr this

morning that the government machine is not going to be neutral, it will

back David Cameron. That is one of the reasons I would disagree with

David Davis and say that the out campaign needs a big figurehead. You

will have the full weight of an institutional machine behind the yes

vote. On the out said, we have Nigel Farage. He appeals to 3 million

voters, but not a majority. There is a responsible case to be made. That

is why someone like Boris Johnson will be pressured enormously to say

which side he will jump for. If David Davis is right, and at least

50% of the parliamentary party, including the payroll vote is going

to vote to leave, many will campaign to leave, that is a massive problem

for the Conservatives and David Cameron? The problem is especially

acute if the final result is so narrow that the result can be

plausibly attributed to a credible, sitting Conservative Prime Minister

having campaigned to remain in. If Eurosceptic backbenchers are Cabinet

minister can say, had David Cameron campaigned the other way, or less

lasciviously, we might have got our lifetime's ambition to leave the

European Union. If it is close, it will linger in the Tory party. It

introduces poison. My guess is that the party will fall apart. I am much

less certain than I was 18 months ago. They know they can govern for

another nine years. Have we change the constitution? I think the

presence of Germany Corbyn effectively guarantees the next

election. -- the presence of Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you.

So Jeremy Corbyn sacked two Shadow ministers and three resigned.

Now another Labour MP says she can no longer work with the party's

leadership in the wake of last week's reshuffle.

Alison McGovern has told this programme that she is resigning

from a policy review on child poverty after the pressure group

she chairs was described as "right wing" and "Conservative"

Labour say she's resigning from something that doesn't exist.

As Labour's internal divisions become more acrimonious,

can the different wings of the party continue to work with each other?

A new year, a new start, but still the fireworks.

But let's be honest, we have sort of got used to them.

There was that vote on Syria which saw 67 Labour MPs disagree

with their leader and vote with the government,

not least because of that speech from Hilary Benn.

Can I have a Green Clean Machine, please, with Siberian ginseng

Jeremy Corbyn's new year resolution, we were led to believe,

was to detoxify his party, starting with a reshuffle.

Things had started appearing in some of the newspapers.

There was talk of revenge, a dish best served cold.

The leadership team denied any such briefing.

But nothing actually happened until Tuesday when Michael Dugher,

the then Shadow Culture Secretary tweeted, just been

The day rattled on but it was not until after midnight that

Pat McFadden was fired from his role as a Shadow Europe Minister.

Both were accused of disloyalty by the leadership.

What then followed was a raft of resignations.

The first was Jonathan Reynolds in the Shadow Transport team.

Then the Shadow Foreign Office Minister, who picked our programme

I have just written to Jeremy Corbyn to resign from the front bench.

I think things that are being said, that are being briefed at,

that I've seen being briefed at this morning, are simply not true.

Undoubtedly they will do that about other individuals,

undoubtedly they will do that about me.

Less than an hour later, Shadow Defence Minister Kevan Jones

Jeremy Corbyn's right-hand man, John McDonnell, also

We have had a few junior members resign today

and that is their right, but they do all come from a narrow

right wing clique within the Labour Party, based around

I do not think they have ever really accepted Jeremy's mandate.

Progress is seen broadly as the Blairite wing of the party.

By the time the Shadow Chancellor was making those comments,

I am told he was late for a meeting with the group's

Alison McGovern says he asked to take part in Labour's policy

review on the subject, a role from which the Sunday Politics can

reveal she now feels she has to resign.

I am there waiting to meet him to talk about it and all

the while he had gone to the television studio to call

the organisation that I am the chair of of having a hard right

We are all Labour members and we believe in having

That is what we are, nothing more, nothing less,

and I do not want to be on the television talking

about this, but I feel like I have been backed into a corner and I have

no other choice now but to stand up and say,

this is who we are and we should get on with the business of getting

The rumours have centred around one man, because of this.

It is now time for us to do our bit in Syria.

But Hilary Benn kept his job as Shadow Foreign Secretary.

The BBC understands a number of Shadow Cabinet ministers had

threatened to walk out with him if he had been sacked.

Other new frontbenchers have defended their boss.

What Jeremy Corbyn has tried to do is to be consensual, to negotiate,

not to hurt people's feelings and get the right team,

and who says it has to be done in three hours or three days?

This has not exactly been a happy new year for Labour.

One Shadow Cabinet minister told me the handling of this

Another former minister said it smacked of a leader more focused

on consolidating his power internally and he was not looking

It has left a bad taste in the mouths of a number of them.

Actually, can I have a coffee instead?

We're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Education Secretary,

Welcome back to the programme. Was Jeremy Corbyn right to sack Michael

Dugher from the Shadow Cabinet? Good morning to you as well. It is good

to be zero. It has been a very difficult week for the Labour Party.

How can I top it off, by having a nice friendly chat with you about

the Labour Party? Was he right to sack Michael Dugher? I do not think

that after the difficult week we have had, I week which everybody

will be down to experience and learn the lessons from, that it is helpful

to the Labour Party, and indeed politics as a whole, for us to pick

through the events of that week. There is the moment to draw a line

under what has happened this week and to focus on the job we have got,

to be an effective opposition, to take this Tory government to task

and to start to begin that detailed work of setting out Labour's vision

and policies for the future, so that by the time of the next election, we

have a real alternative to put on the table. OK, but you would agree

the events are worthy of analysis and this is our first new programme

of the new Year. Jeremy Corbyn's team briefed that Michael Dugher was

incompetent. Do you think he was incompetent? The events of this week

have had plenty of analysis over many days. Not on this programme.

You have on your programme during the week as well. Was he

incompetent? Michael Dugher is a very good colleague and he will

serve the Labour Party well know from the backbenches, as he has done

over many years from the front benches. After all that has happened

this week, we retain a Shadow Cabinet, a Labour top team, that is

a broad team. The team that I joined on that basis, and that spirit of a

broad church remains. That is something I am pleased about, and

together, we can do the job we have been asked to do, because we are not

just Labour's Shadow Cabinet, we are the official opposition. The clue is

in the name. It is our job to expose what the government is doing. That

is my intention and Jeremy Corbyn's intention. Other members of the

Shadow Cabinet, Charlie Falconer, have said we need to draw line under

last week's events. Would you have stayed in the Shadow

Cabinet if Hilary Benn had been sacked? I am not going to get drawn

into nit-picking... It is a huge question because we were told 11

Shadow Cabinet ministers had threatened to resign. You had been

named in the number of reports as one of them, were you? It is a here

political situation. Hilary Benn remains... The Shadow Cabinet

remained intact as a broad team. My views were not sought nor offered.

This is a matter for Jeremy Corbyn, he is the leader of the Labour Party

and it is up to him to make decisions about the team and the

Shadow Cabinet. One of the new members of your team is Emily corn

bread, Shadow Defence Secretary. She says she does not know why Jeremy

Corbyn made her Shadow Defence Secretary. Do you? Again it is not

my view. I look forward to working with Emily and the rest of the

Shadow Cabinet to develop those policies going forward. One of them

is about the defence of our country and we will have a robust process,

and very detailed process, where we put forward the argument and look at

the evidence and the research and we will build a really good policy. Let

me ask you about an issue on this. A lot of the reason people see why she

has been appointed is quite clear. Your leader is against Trident and

always has been, he put Ken Livingstone in charge of the Trident

review, he now has a Shadow Defence Secretary opposed to Trident. It is

obvious that he is moving to end Labour's support for the nuclear

deterrent, is it not? You have got a very detailed policy process that we

will go through. It is not just a matter for the Shadow Cabinet, it is

a matter for the national policy forum. I am not a unilateralist, I

think we should maintain an independent, ongoing nuclear

deterrent. My question to you was... My question was is it not clear that

Jeremy Corbyn wants to move your party to a unilateral nuclear

disarmament position? That is his position, but let's see how this

process goes forward. I have not had a discussion with him about Trident

at all and we have not had a discussion in the Shadow Cabinet

about this topic yet either. We have a clear policy making process. In my

experience of these things, it never turns out to be as binary as

everybody wants it to be. As you proceed and set out your argument

and case and look at the evidence, as you commission research and try

to build alliances, not just within the Shadow Cabinet, but within the

trade union membership, you compromise and your position changes

and you get a policy that everyone can get behind and in my experience

that is what will happen. You are either for or against having nuclear

arms and labour fought the 1983 election on a unilateral disarmament

tickets and lost by a landslide. You have said you are in favour of

Trident. Would you resign from the Shadow Cabinet if labour comes out

for nuclear disarmament? I know you want this to be an easy decision. I

would just like an answer, Lucy Powell. Let's see where we get to.

If the Labour position becomes Mr Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn's

position, if that becomes your official policy, would you stay in

the Cabinet? I would be very surprised after all the discussion

we go through, after all aspects of the Labour Party, I would be very

surprised if we got to a position where the Labour Party policy was

one of unilateral disarmament. If it was, what would you do? We will see

when we get there, but I really do not think we will get there. I am

doing pretty badly this morning since every question has yet to

elicit an answer. I am getting better at batting you off. You

either on who is telling the viewers you are batting me off. I want to be

on your programme topic about what is happening to junior doctors. Stop

playing for time. Ask me about education and health. There are

reports this morning and Mr McDonnell the Shadow Chancellor

already referred to this, that Jeremy Corbyn's people want to

policy-making from the Shadow Cabinet to the Labour National

Executive Committee, not even the policy forum, just the executive

committee. Do you support that move? I do not think that is going to

happen. Any changes to Labour Party policy-making process, as those on

the left will know better than anybody because they are the holders

of the rule book, they will know that changes like that can only be

made at conference by changing the rule book of the Labour Party. We

have a very consensual policy-making process. Will the National Executive

Committee be the policy forum? No, that is not their role. We have got

a policy forum that could be improved in the way it engages with

outside experts and party members and the public and it could be

improved and Angela Eagle is looking that at that at the moment. But we

have a very robust and complex system, but to get to the right

policy-making process, and I know those of you in the media what it to

be really simple, but it is not. Was it consensual for the Shadow

Chancellor to describe the progress pressure group as having, quote, a

right-wing, Conservative agenda? I do not think his comments were right

or helpful. The best thing we can do now at the end of this week that we

have had is to put an end to the escalation of factionalism and name

calling and move on together to do the job that we need to do, which is

to be an effective government. You said today there are big issues

around Europe, junior doctors going on strike for the first time in 40

years and we have got an important job to do that my constituents

expect us to be doing. The last thing they want, and if there is

anything that Jeremy's leadership when taught us is that this

internal, talking about each other and the factions and so on, that is

what the public hate. They want big vision and big ideas and policies

for the future. When I ask you about policy ideas you will not give me an

answer. There cannot be a bigger idea than whether or not the Labour

Party is moving towards unilateral nuclear disarmament. We have just

had a huge chat about that. Ask me about education and the floods, the

economy that needs to change for working people. Ask me about the

crisis that is hitting families at the same time David Cameron is

making a speech about families and his government is doing the opposite

of supporting families. Ask me some of those things. On families are you

disappointed that Alison McGovern, the chair of progress, has resigned

from the policy forum on child poverty? It is a shame because

Alison has got a huge amount to offer. I have known her for many

years before both of us were Labour MPs and she has been a long-standing

campaigner on issues of child poverty and international

development and how we can change the economy to make it work for

working people. I hope Allison continues to make a contribution to

the Labour Party and I am sure she will, she is an effective

parliamentarian. I know from speaking to her that the last thing

she wants is all this attention that she is getting today and she was to

move on and draw a line and what has happened and realign our fire

knocked on each other, but on the Tories and on this government that

is doing a terrible job of running this country. Let me return to Emily

Thornberry. A year ago she accepted ?14,500 donation from a law firm

which has been condemned by an enquiry for making false allegations

against British soldiers which were wholly without merit, in the words

of the enquiry. Now she is Shadow Defence Secretary should she

returned that money? I do not know anything about that, I do not know

about the law firm or the nature of the sponsorship and how it was given

or what she is doing, but I am sure she will come on this programme and

you can interrogate her about these issues as you happen to me the past.

Very well, let's hope I will do better next time. Goodbye.

Now, after last-ditch talks broke up on Friday without agreement

a strike by Junior doctors, the first in over 40 years,

It will lead to the cancellation of thousands of appointments

and operations and the Government argues

So what's prompted this virtually unprecedented action by Doctors?

The Health Secretary is the star of a high-stakes medical drama.

The supporting cast, junior doctors, the thousands of staff who finished

medical school but are not consultants yet.

It is over big changes to their contracts, from rotas

to pay, changes which are much needed, according to the government,

and their supporters in places like right of centre think tanks.

It has wanted to move towards more of the seven-day week,

which actually, I think that ambition is shared

across the medical workforce, including junior doctors,

and it wants to change the so-called pay progression,

the way that junior doctors get paid more just for being in office

for longer, just as they are doing to the rest of the public sector,

so I think they were absolutely right to start this

But the doctors are furious about it.

Both sides have been negotiating for months,

most recently on Friday, when the gap between them

Let's look at some of the concessions made

They want Saturday to be considered a normal working day.

Initially they said antisocial hours which come with extra pay would not

But that has been rolled back to 7:00pm.

The Department of Health has also promised to introduce so-called

guardians who will monitor that doctors are not forced to work

They will have the power to fine NHS trusts who break the rules,

and the Government reckons most junior doctors will actually see

Jeremy Hunt says that agreement has been reached in 15 out of 16 areas,

but I've spoken to someone on the junior doctors' negotiating

team who told me that the number of unresolved issues

Nadia is an anaesthetist at a London Hospital.

She will be a consultant soon and is worried for the junior

doctors who will follow in her footsteps.

They will probably find themselves working more weekends,

They would find their shifts much more erratic, much less compatible

with having a normal life, which would affect the working lives

of thousands of junior doctors who have families and children

in school, and they would struggle with that.

It would also affect patients, having erratic working lives,

erratic working hours, is proven not to be good

for anyone's health, and there are lots of studies that

If this contract goes through, there is a high likelihood

that is going to be the situation and those people will be in charge

More than 70 junior doctors from hospitals along

It is a repeat of 1975, the last time that junior

On Tuesday, this generation of medics will provide only

Another two strikes are coming with plans for no junior doctors

This issue has even made it into the charts when an NHS choir

One of the campaigners behind it says the government is not

seeing the real problems in the health service.

There are not enough staff, this is not in one hospital,

this is every hospital in the country, there are not enough

staff to deal with the demands in A

There are not enough GPs, and GPs are leaving our health

service, A doctors are leaving the health service.

These are the key issues which need to be addressed,

and they need to be addressed now, not after this contract negotiation

or as part of a pay envelope, or any other speak the government

Jeremy Hunt is convinced that a more seven-day NHS is the way

But it looks like there could be plenty of cliffhangers

Now, we asked for an interview with the doctors' union,

the BMA, and the Department for Health but neither

But we're joined now by the former Conservative MP and Health Secretary

He now chairs the NHS Confederation which represents NHS Trusts.

Welcome to the programme. Thank you. Our BMA militants spoiling for a

fight, or has Jeremy Hunt bungled the negotiations and provoke

hard-working doctors to stop work? The last thing patients want is a

long running commentary about the behaviour of the negotiating

parties. It is disappointing that we have got a strike action plan for

this week, but what we need to see is the parties back in the

negotiating room dealing with the detail that your report just

highlighted. That can only be dealt with round the negotiating table.

The overwhelming majority of doctors to back an unprecedented action of

strikes, including a full strike in the third one, hardly suggests the

negotiations have been handled with aplomb. What has been going on

within the negotiating room is addressing the detail. Any pay

negotiation, as you very well know, covers a mass of complex detail.

There is a commitment from the BMA and the employers and the government

to deliver better performance over the weekend and we have seen. We

have seen in our hospitals that there is an issue around excess

mortality. The government is right to address that issue. This is part

of the response to that issue and that is a commitment that is shared

by all the negotiators. It cannot be that accepted as they are going on

strike. The government claims there are 11,000 unnecessary weekend

deaths because of book cover. That is just a propaganda figure. It is

right that the excess mortality is not just around we can cover, that

is true. That figure is a propaganda figure. There is an analysis that

shows there is excess mortality in British hospitals at weekends. That

is an issue that the BMA, the doctors, the clinical leaders of the

health service and the management leaders and the government from a

policy point of view all understand needs to be reassessed. Except the

report comes up with the 11000 and you said it is not possible to

determine the extent to which these excess deaths may be preventable and

it would be misleading to assume they were. It is a figure the

Secretary of State uses all the time. Rash and misleading. I am not

using it, but I say there is a need to look seriously on behalf of

patients if there is evidence of excess mortality at the weekend. We

know there is excess mortality. But that is not the right figure. Should

we simply sit back and do nothing? If the figure is not right perhaps

the Secretary of State should not be using it. Is it not wholly

unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS

without an increase in overall NHS resources? That is what the

government announced in the comprehensive spending review before

Christmas. What is unrealistic... That is simply to keep the NHS

ticking over, it is not to pay for seven days a week cover. It is

unrealistic to imagine we can deliver the kind of health and care

services we want in our country without addressing some of the

fundamental issues around budgets, you are right about that, but also

about joining up the different elements of the health and social

care system. We talk about the NHS budget and we come into the studio

on a separate we can to talk as though it is a completely different

subject about the funding of social care and residential care. What we

need to be more adult about is looking at this as a single system,

which is why I and the NHS Confederation have called for a

review of the funding and structure of health and care services.

The government is trying to implement seven-day week cover on

health spending that is essentially unchanged in real terms, not

financing that. Look at what our health spending is, as a share of

GDP, look among the wealthier countries of Europe, down there, we

spend 8.5% of our GDP on health, and that includes private health. These

other countries, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, France, are

closer to 11%. The event that we already spend less, how can we hope

to have a seven day a week NHS on a .5% GDP. Most of the people who work

in the health service now we already have a seven day a week health

service. This is about Phil cover. What do you say about this? What I

say about the funding of the health service is that this is precisely

one of the issues that needs to be addressed. I think it needs to be

addressed on a cross-party basis. That is one of the things I learned

this chair of the cross-party health committee in the last parliament.

Can we afford things like seven day a week, Phil cover of which is what

is being proposed with that level of health spending? Only Ireland

devotes less spending than we do. I accept there is an issue around

excess mortality in NHS hospitals that we can. I do not accept that we

do not have a seven day a week health service. Do you accept that

we need to get closer to France and Germany than we are at the moment on

spending? I do agree that not just in this country but across the

world, all over a very long period, as societies get richer, they spend

more of their income on health and your services, but we have to move

away from thinking the health service is isolated, it is part of

the key system, and we need to look at that on a holistic bases across

health and tear. That is in the medium and long-term. You're doing

your commission, I hope you will keep us appraised of that as you go

on. Hello and welcome to

the Sunday Politics Wales. In a bumper year in Welsh politics,

which political party After a difficult week

for the Labour Party we ask, And last month's floods devastated

homes in North Wales. How can we avoid similar

scenes in future? In less than four months' time,

we'll be going to the polls All the parties will be setting

out their stalls in the weeks ahead, Our political editor Nick Servini

now on what promises to be OK, it is January, and everyone

is off the booze so the political chit chat in and around the Senedd

is not happening in pubs, The intriguing question,

what will be the political make-up Here is a reminder as

to how things stand. Labour are the biggest party

with exactly half the number Next, the main opposition group

are the Conservatives with 14. Then there is Plaid

Cymru with 11 seats. And last but not least,

the Lib Dems with five. Roger Scully from Cardiff University

puts detailed research At the moment, they suggest

that we are on course, that the Labour Party is still to be

the largest party in the Assembly, We see the Conservatives in a fairly

consistent second place ahead The other major difference with 2011

is support for Ukip, which is much higher

than it was five years ago. At the moment it looks as if Ukip

is going to be in the Assembly The Liberal Democrats,

on the other hand, could be really struggling to maintain

their position in the Assembly. The big question is whether Labour

can hold onto power. I think the party is

facing a triple whammy. Well-documented problems over

the NHS, potential infighting Can Carwyn Jones insulate himself

from these problems? And thirdly, the age-old challenge

of trying to appear fresh If they have a really disastrous

night, our electoral system means they might win a few

more seats on the list, if they lose some first

past the post seats, so they can't go down too low,

given we have got quite a fixed We are looking at Labour having

anything from 24 to 28. There is only a few scenarios

in terms of what the government You have got a Labour government

who can only really talk to Plaid Cymru at this point

in time, because the Lib Dems, Then you have talks about a formal

coalition, an informal agreement or something very formal,

where Labour will have to agree a budget with Plaid

Cymru every year. You could argue that

the Conservatives have their best ever chance in Cardiff Bay

after the General Election I would expect them to talk a lot

about Jeremy Corbyn in the coming months and the state of health

services, but knocking a government is one thing, persuading people that

you are a government And that is the challenge

for their leader, Andrew RT Davies, making people believe he could be

the next First Minister. A number of these seats that Labour

won in 2011 were won, and in some cases pretty

convincingly, by the Conservatives The Vale of Glamorgan,

held by Jane Hutt, a Labour Cabinet Minister,

the Conservatives won that seatk pretty easily in

the General Election. You would think the Conservatives

must be fancying their chances of capturing that seat for the first

time in the Assembly this year. And talking of party leaders,

2016 is a massive year for Leanne Under her, the party

has had a huge profile. But it has failed to make that

count at the ballot box. That will need to change

this time around. On the policy front,

they claim to be the most ambitious party for Wales, but their challenge

will be proving the workability or the credibility of

many of their policies, particularly in areas

like health, where it One leader game this commentary on

by Kammy's aspirations. They don't have the same aspirations as SNP and

not being seen as the credible challenger to Labour is problematic.

Nevertheless, Plaid Cymru does do a lot better in Welsh elections. It

will have its eye on key target seats like Llanelli and Carden Arben

West -- Carmarthen, but to make any series challenge to Labour, it has

to win seats in South Wales and at the moment, the polls and the mood

and the zeitgeist does not suggest Plaid Cymru is in a position to do

so. That is incredibly disappointing for Leanne Wood, especially after

the public profile she has had over the last 12 months.

It is difficult to see the Lib Dems in anything other than a fight

for their political lives, as they have been in other parts

As they knock on doors over the coming months,

what they will be focusing on is the concessions they have won

in striking deals with Labour in areas like the pupil deprivation

After a dismal performance in the UK general election, this election is

about maintaining a presence in the Assembly. It is as serious as that

for the Lib Dems. It is hard to imagine they will be wiped out

completely but they could be down to a group of one or two, which is

hugely significant for Kirsty Williams and the Welsh Liberal

Democrats. In terms of their campaigning, it is all about trying

to hold a presence, making sure they have well oiled constituency

machines which allow them to maintain a couple of Assembly

Members. No cup, because they

are the great unknown. They have never had a presence

here and many are predicting they will return a handful

of AMs for the first time. This is where the presence of the EU

referendum comes into play. If it takes place in June,

Ukip will have a huge profile as a result and that

could really benefit them a shadow minister resigning

live on TV. Cardiff South's Stephen Doughty left

Labour's front bench over the sacking of his

colleague Pat McFadden. He's one of three shadow

ministers who quit during He made his announcement

on our sister programme, Are you considering your

position, Mr Doughty? I have just written to Jeremy Corbyn

to resign from the front bench. I agreed to serve on Jeremy's front

bench for a number of reasons. I had well-publicised differences

with him on foreign policy and defence and national security,

but I recognise the mandate Jeremy had been given by the party

and I areas where I wholeheartedly On tax credits, climate change,

many other issues, fighting the Trade Union Bill,

I was proud to lead that work, but, fundamentally, I agree

with everything Pat McFadden said about terrorism and

national security. Joining me is the Shadow Wales

Office Minister in the Lords, Just to start with Jeremy Corbyn's

reshuffle, it is fair to say far from an ideal way of going about a

Cabinet reshuffle, a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle. Fair to say? It was not

tidy. I have seen better reshuffles in my time, but Jeremy has got a

YouTube mandate and it is up to him who is in his Shadow Cabinet and who

his ministers are. But wasn't all the stories in the media, it took so

long, it had the air of a shambles around it. I think this is something

that needs to be tightened around the leadership. People have got a

lot of respect for Jeremy Corbyn. People are little bit worried about

the people around him and probably that is where it got a little bit

messy, the briefings and counter briefings, it is unnecessary. It

needs to be tidied up and tightened and they learned that. And it does

not reflect what they are saying they want to see, which is this new

fairer, kinder, gentler politics. It seems to be more of the old Gordon

Brown and Tony Blair. The real focus should be on opposing the Tory

government. That is where our sole focus should be. We have had huge

floats over the Christmas period is, we have seen the Tories tried to cut

back on tax credits, we have seen them not really condemning people

for killings in Saudi Arabia. There are things we need to do, we need to

oppose, we have got the trade union Bill coming to the House of lords

this week, they broke no opposition, this Tory government, and we need to

make sure we are speaking for the general public, who are

uncomfortable with the position at the moment of where the Tories are

taking us. Should Pat McFadden, the former Shadow European minister,

have been sacked for his comments? This morning on BBC, Lord Falk and,

said he should not have been sacked. I work really closely with Pat

McFadden in the Lords and he was an excellent minister. He is really

able, but we are going into a referendum and it is up to the new

leader to determine who is in those positions. You are being very

diplomatic but should he have been sacked? No, I don't think he should

have been sacked, but that is the mandate Jeremy Corbyn has been given

and we have got to respect that. You were talking about the fact all this

discussion around Jeremy Corbyn is distracting from the pop work of an

opposition. Could it also be a distraction as we enter this period

of an Assembly election campaign in May? Because of all the shouting in

Westminster, that could detract from the message Labour is hoping to get

through for the Assembly elections. I think people in Wales need to

understand that this election in Wales is about the leadership of

Carwyn Jones. The fact is, Labour has delivered every single manifesto

promise it promised at the last election. 48% of the money spent in

Wales is spent on health, we are prioritising that, we have got the

best results in terms of education ever, so things are improving in

Wales. Carwyn Jones is a great leader and I hope that is the basis

on which people will be voting. So what would be your message for your

Labour colleagues in Parliament in Westminster, who are seemingly

continuing this sniping, these counter briefings, which will to

track from the Labour Assembly campaign? My message would be,

everybody calm down a bit, and let's focus our attention on the Tories,

not internally. Is advice like that being heeded by Labour MPs and some

peers as well, who just can't accept the fact, almost, that Jeremy Corbyn

is the leader? He has had a massive mandate from the party membership,

we have got to respect that. The key thing now is to understand that

Labour is in power in Wales, we are able to affect change here and we

have got to focus on that. Anything that is a distraction in Wales on

that we should put to one side. We heard in the piece, Labour have been

in power in Wales for the past 16 years. How difficult will it be to

try and present yourself as a fresh, new, bright party, when you have

been in power for so long? We will be unveiling our manifesto, which

will have a whole raft of new policies. We have delivered on

everything we promised, and that is an important benchmark for people to

measure against, but we will have promises for what we are trying to

do in the future. There will be a lot of new Assembly Members, I am

hoping to be one of them, and that will give a fresh new look to the

Assembly and the Labour Party. Thank you for joining us.

After the wettest December on record, ministers have rejected

suggestions Wales wasn't prepared for the bad weather.

But a council leader has told this programme lessons must be learned

to ensure the response to flooding is more effective in the future.

Christmas was a wash-out for communities across Wales

as flood water tore through towns and villages, bringing with it

destruction and dejection over the festive period.

For the fourth time in 20 years, Bernard Eccles and his wife have

been left counting the cost after water got into their home

The emotion, of course, is, you just can't put a price on that.

You just give up after a while and you just laugh about it.

The flood waters have now receded and the true extent

and cost of the damage caused in villages and towns like Llanrwst

At the same time, local residents say they are still

There is a feeling here and across North Wales more

could have been done to prevent these scenes and,

with experts predicting further greater flooding in the future,

there are now calls for lessons to be learned.

Dyfed Edwards is the leader of Gwynedd Council, another

area which bore the brunt of the bad weather.

I think the danger of the Welsh Government and indeed

all of us in government at whatever level is that we react

There is a crisis, there is an emergency,

What we are learning now is the weather is changing.

That means, rather than reacting all the time,

waiting for a crisis to happen, we must ensure that we take a step

back and look, OK, do we have the infrastructure,

are our defences correct, do we have the support in place

to be able to be proactive and to also be able to help people

But does the Natural Resources Minister agree

with the suggestion Wales was underprepared

I think the teams were working extremely hard

from early Boxing Day and making sure the resilience of the country

was at its best, but this is, we are talking about nature here,

unprecedented rainfall in December and January,

we are seen to be holding our head here and making sure

that we can just keep defences operational.

In the meantime, questions are being asked about the First Minister's

promises during his recent visit here to make funds

available immediately to help pay for repairs.

A significant chunk of that is money the Welsh Government has

received as a result of the UK Government's decision to spend more

However, flood victims attending this drop-in advice session held

by Natural Resources Wales are still waiting to find out how

I would like to see where the money is being spent and see evidence

it is going to be spent if it is needed in Llanrwst

It is easy to say the money is available, but make sure

Have you heard anything about where that money is and how

If you pardon the pun, ?3 million is probably a drop

We are going to have to look for other ways

of protecting ourselves in the future because perhaps this

is not going to be the biggest rain event we have had.

The next ten years, it might be even more.

Carl Sargeant told us the Welsh Government has

invested in flood defences and letters have been sent to local

authorities to let them know how they can apply for funding.

The advice from insurers is that some of the money should be used

to help homeowners make their properties more resilient.

Anything which encourages people to build

resilience measures into their homes has to be welcomed.

And we would certainly encourage home owners to think of that.

We have also been calling recently for greater

information in the home buying process about flood risk.

We think it is important that when people are

buying a home, they get information about flood risk on their home

But for the residents of Llanrwst and many

others across Wales, it is too late, as another clear up continues

following the wettest December on record.

This week, AMs will return to Cardiff Bay and one of the first

things they'll discuss will be the Wales Bill.

Its aim is to offer new powers to Cardiff Bay, but it's been called

an English veto, which will fan the flames of nationalism.

Well, the Assembly's Deputy Presiding Officer, Conservative AM

David Melding, joins me now to discuss.

As well as being the deputy beside in office, you are also the chair of

the Constitutional affairs committee and a report of yours last month

looking at this Wales Bill was fairly damning. What are the main

concerns you have as it presently stands? It was critical but

constructive. We have offered a way out of the current breakdown in

consensus and I think that is at the heart of its problem. We need a made

in Wales solution to our constitutional questions and we need

to take this opportunity. It has not been done fully in the past, we have

had three bills that have tried to improve Welsh Governance Centre. On

the fourth attempt, we need to get it right. Was there a feeling this

was something you were given at the last minute, this is what we want,

rather than being something more built on consensus between the two

institutions? In fairness to the UK Government, they presented a draft

Bill and they expected modifications, but what is appointed

many people in Wales and the Assembly and Welsh government is the

consensus that was around the St David's Day process seems to have

been lost and that energy is not in the Bill. I think that accounts for

a lot of its problems. Is there a lack of respect from the civil

service? You say in the report that you asked the UK civil service for

evidence, invited senior officials, they never got back to you. I think

there has been a great problem about Whitehall's involvement in this

whole process. I am not talking about the Wales Office, you would

expect them to take the lead, but in asking each Whitehall department

what they think should be reserved and not given to Wales in terms of

its powers, was the wrong way to go about the question. They should have

asked, what is the Welsh government -- UK need to operate, reserve those

powers, and leave all else to the Assembly should it be appropriate.

But how much change is needed? Looking at some of the things that

is said, as it is currently drafted, it is not clear, it will add

convexity and difficulty to the Assembly's ability to legislate. It

seems to be a fairly fundamental change that is needed. There is a

lot of agreement in parts of the Bill. The powers to the Assembly for

its own elections and the recognition of the Assembly's

purpose. That sort of spirit of co-operation needs to permeate the

whole Bill. Basically we need very few reservations, we need to remove

the clemency -- clumsy system... And get a clear statement on what Welsh

law is in governance. A lot of time and critical effort seems to go on

constitutional issues. What would you say to voters who say,

concentrate on hospitals and schools and jobs and council services, other

bread and butter issues, rather than this almost constant navel-gazing. I

completely agree that public the economy, are the things that affect

day-to-day life, but if you get your constitutional procedure is wrong,

you don't end up with the suitable powers to fix these problems. That

is why this behind-the-scenes work is important. But it is important

because we need to get public service delivery in a much better

state. What happens next time? There will be a debate in the Assembly on

Wednesday next week where new ideas will be inserted into this draft.

What will happen next? It will go to Whitehall, will be except what the

Assembly suggests? There will be a report from the Welsh affairs Select

Committee so this process of consultation goes on and the UK

Government will probably then introduce an amended Bill into the

legislate if process and I hope that will recognise our recommendations

and act on them. I almost don't want to ask this but we have had so many,

"This will be the settlement for devolution", do you think this has

the potential to do that? If the UK Government acted on our full

recommendations, we would do what we and beget affordable to Londoners to

buy. Andrew, back to you. Now, the Prime Minister

is pledging to "tear down" 100 sink estates in England,

replacing them with new homes Michael Heseltine is being brought

in to oversee the initiative, but so far the Government's

pledged to spend just ?140 I think sink housing estates,

many built after the war, where people can feel

trapped in poverty, unable to get on and build a good

life for themselves, I think it is time, with Government

money but with massive private sector and perhaps

pension sector help, demolish the worst of these

and actually rebuild houses that people feel they can

have a real future in. So, we have not got a budget for

this scheme, we do not know how much it will cost, we do not know the 100

sink estates that will be renovated, other than that it is a great idea.

Politically it is a great idea because it signals in Westminster

what we call a one nation approach to policy. There is not much behind

it at all, but the symbolism is powerful. Iain Duncan Smith began

his leadership with a visit to a housing estate. Tony Blair began his

premiership with a visit to a housing estate in London. There is a

rich history of this and David Cameron is right that post-war, poor

people in this country were used as guinea pigs for brittle lists and

modern architect. This is the way of taking the edge of that. If it is

only symbolism, it does not help anybody. At the end of this worldly

amount of social housing be higher or lower than it was before? When

you sell off these properties, there is supposed to be a mechanism

whereby people build more. Where in Kensington will you build more?

Social housing rents in Islington are 20% of market rates. Affordable

rates are 60% of astronomical and people cannot afford them. It is not

affordable for the people in social housing. I noticed the Prime

Minister mentioned building in the private sector and he mentioned

pension funds. I have monitored the pension fund contribution to

infrastructure and it is pretty close to zero. If these people in

these estates are waiting on pension money, they will be living in their

sink estates for a long time to come. He also mentioned in the

report by an estate agent that says you have these high-rise rocks in

so-called recreational areas in no-go zones and if you had lower

blocks you could use that and have many more people. We know all that,

but how will it happen? The image that came into my mind when I saw

the article in the Sunday Times was the picture you carried on the front

page of the Sunday Times which was Margaret Thatcher walking into that

inner-city wilderness and saying, we have got to concentrate on the inner

cities after she won her third election. But the problem is there

has to be substance and there is a danger with Downing Street that they

think Jeremy Corbyn is in their eyes so useless that they can do these

hits like this, but you have to have substance. If you are talking about

rebuilding Britain's council housing estates, you need more money. Let's

monitored this closely. Let's find out what the 100 estates will be and

let's get a regular update on how they will be improved and it would

be nice to know where either people who are going to go to live in them

at the moment? They had trouble getting the MPs who were living in

Parliament and trying to get them out after three years. Let's keep an

Now, if our political panel have made New Year's resolutions to spend

less time in the office, they might have to break them

because 2016 is going to keep them busy.

The EU Referendum, which could happen as early as June,

will dominate the political landscape.

David Cameron continues his attempts at renegotiation apace,

but it is unlikely to convince the ardent "leave" campaigners,

The result of the elections on the first Thursday in May

will dictate the tone of Jeremy Corbyn's first

In Scotland, the party is facing the possibility of virtual wipe-out

But there are also elections for the Welsh assembly -

And in the local elections there are predictions Labour

could lose up to 200 of the 1,200 seats they are defending.

Northern Ireland will also be holding elections.

London might offer Labour a glimmer of hope, with Sadiq Khan maintaining

a paper-thin lead over his Conservative rival Zac Goldsmith.

Away from the ballot box, a few long-awaited decisions may

finally come to fruition, not least a ruling on the expansion

Economic growth could be trimmed back in the face of a global

slowdown, as speculation continues about when the Bank of England

And come the summer, we should finally find out

what the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war actually achieved.

Helen, the Tory split over Europe, particularly if the referendum is

this year, will be apparent for all to see. As David Davis was saying,

it could be a serious split down the middle of the party. Is there a

possibility that the party managers lose control of this split? This

becomes a serious, historical split for the Tories? My feeling is it

will be quite contained. They have power, they want to stay in power

and they are seen as a credible party in government. It is not an

existential issue in the that Trident is. Trident in labour is so

forceful is that this is something that is attacking the heart of the

Labour Party and it is rendering it unelectable. Is the country so

excited about Europe? The turnout might be quite low? Is the Tory

party turning up against Europe going to put a lot of them off? I

would think not. I remember in 1840s the... You took it off twitter. It

was the quill pen. The party was split them for a generation. Is this

as potentially a serious? There were Eurosceptics who were saying this

would be a great split. But they were not in power as a majority for

about 30 or 35 years after that split. That is why what the Prime

Minister announced last week when he said ministers will be able to

campaign on either side was so vitally important in ensuring that

the split that will come, and it will be a split, does not turn into

a civil war. That announcement is really important for managing the

tone and the aftermath. I think Downing Street are hoping it will

not be a Corbin like split, but some are hoping it will be on the other

side. My instinct is that telling the ministers to campaign as they

see fit, I think you will avoid it being the worst split. You may be

right, but sometimes the Tories when it comes to Europe just cannot help

themselves as we saw with Maastricht. Let me come to Labour.

It has been a pretty traumatic week for Labour. Where now? Where now is

Labour moderates increasingly peeling off over the course of this

year. From the Shadow Cabinet or the party? The Shadow Cabinet and the

front bench, rather than the party, although moderates in the country

might peel off as well. What I found bizarre about the reshuffle was not

the fact that Pat McFadden was sacked, that Maria Eagle was

demoted, the mystery to me is why do they want to be there in the first

place? What do mainstream Labour people think they are achieving by

actively serving in the front bench of a leader who they themselves

believe is driving the party into the ground? Presumably there is some

prestige in being in the Shadow Cabinet. Of any Shadow Cabinet, the

Tory ones included. They think party unity is a prized above all else and

they are actively aiding and abetting and will be tainted by the

results in 2020 if it is as bad as people think it will be. If the

centre-left of the party peels off from the Shadow Cabinet, that will

make life a lot easier for Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald. He can

reconfigure the Shadow Cabinet in his image. Yes and he has got a good

year coming. Labour are likely to be the largest party and will end up in

government and Sadiq Khan has a good chance of winning the Mayor

elections and all of that will stop anyone on the Centre who wants to

say, the electorate have spoken and this man can never get anywhere. I

do not think it will happen. My sense is even if the election

results are bad, it is not curtains for Jeremy Corbyn, but if they are

as decent as Helen suggested, will he go into the Labour conference in

Liverpool at the end of September looking to change the Trident

policy? A totemic change of policy? That is why good is the story in the

Independent On Sunday about strengthening the hand of the

National executive committee of the Labour Party, over the cabinet, so

they can change the policy by then. You're right, Steve Deke Canos

looking stronger in London than Zac Goldsmith, Susie may well win. --

Sadiq Khan is stronger. Labour is bound to do badly. Local elections

do not determine leaders. Jeremy Corbyn may well have a narrative

that says it is all OK. Yes or no, will Jeremy Corbyn be leader of the

Labour Party at the end of this year? Yes, definitely, without

question. If David Cameron loses the referendum, will he be Prime

Minister by the end of the year? Yes. No. Yes.

The Daily Politics will be back at lunchtime tomorrow and all next

And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.