Browse content similar to 31/01/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
George Osborne called it a "major success". | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
Google say they're paying what's due. | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
But Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell's not impressed - | :00:47. | :00:48. | |
we'll ask him how he'd get big business to pay more tax. | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
David Cameron says he wants an emergency brake on access | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
to welfare benefits for EU migrants to be applied immediately | :00:58. | :01:01. | |
But will that be enough for the PM to clinch a deal and head | :01:02. | :01:07. | |
And will it be best for business if we stay in or we get out? | :01:08. | :01:15. | |
Later in the programme, as the debate over the UK's | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
relationship with the EU intensifies, what's best or Wales? | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
The Secretary of State gives us his view. | :01:21. | :01:32. | |
And taking time out from their protracted negotiations | :01:33. | :01:35. | |
with Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs over how much tax | :01:36. | :01:37. | |
they should pay on their enormous fees - the best and the brightest | :01:38. | :01:43. | |
political panel in the business - Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee | :01:44. | :01:45. | |
and Janan Ganesh who'll be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:46. | :01:51. | |
First this morning, George Osborne hailed Google's back tax bill | :01:52. | :01:53. | |
Since then the settlement's been condemned as too lenient by - | :01:54. | :02:00. | |
among others - Boris Johnson, The Sun, Rupert Murdoch | :02:01. | :02:02. | |
and the Labour Party, which has accused the Chancellor | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
of offering the internet giant "mates' rates". | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
In a moment, I'll be talking to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell. | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
First here's Google executive, Peter Barron, defending the company | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
What I would say is that in the UK we pay corporation tax at 20%. | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
It's absolutely the same corporation tax rate as everybody else, | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
Yes, but you keep coming back to this point about sales. | :02:28. | :02:35. | |
We are taxed as corporation tax dictates on the activities, | :02:36. | :02:37. | |
the economic activities of Google UK. | :02:38. | :02:40. | |
So, we pay corporation tax in the UK at 20%, | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
and, actually, globally, our effective tax rate over the last | :02:44. | :02:50. | |
five years or so is round about 20%, which is very close to the UK rate, | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
And I'm joined now by the Shadow Chancellor, | :02:55. | :03:01. | |
Welcome. What single step would you take to make sure that companies | :03:02. | :03:14. | |
like Google, Apple, Amazon, pay a fair and appropriate level of tax? | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
Openness and transparency. I want the information about how this deal | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
has been arrived at and I want them to publish in the future there tax | :03:25. | :03:31. | |
records. So that we can have openness and transparency, see what | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
is fair. The Chancellor said this was a major success. But we cannot | :03:37. | :03:39. | |
tell because we have not got the information. Would you extend that | :03:40. | :03:46. | |
to British major companies publishing their tax? Six out of ten | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
of the UK's biggest companies are not paying any corporation tax. Yes, | :03:52. | :03:57. | |
I would. The suggestion has been put forward about the FTSE 100. That is | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
a good idea. There would be no commercial disadvantage. Do you | :04:02. | :04:08. | |
think that transparency would be a major step forward? It is one step | :04:09. | :04:14. | |
forward. We want country by country reporting as well. I supported | :04:15. | :04:17. | |
George Osborne on as negotiations in Europe with that. We're not going to | :04:18. | :04:23. | |
get enough. I found quite angry making this morning that we have | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
allegation -- allegations that their Conservatives were voting their MEPs | :04:29. | :04:31. | |
to vote against this. I find that frustrating. I want HMRC to be | :04:32. | :04:37. | |
properly resourced so they can do the job. There are too many job | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
cuts. We have lost too much expertise. There is time now to | :04:43. | :04:45. | |
start thinking about how we review our tax system. The Treasury select | :04:46. | :04:54. | |
committee has undertaken a review. Corporation tax is levied on | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
profits. Even if you got your transparency, you would quickly find | :05:00. | :05:02. | |
that the concept of profits that can be moved around geographically, they | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
can be manipulated depending on costs, would you consider replacing | :05:08. | :05:13. | |
corporation tax with, for example, a tax on corporate sales? Revenues are | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
less malleable than profits. That is one of the issues to be addressed. | :05:18. | :05:21. | |
Nigel Lawson has done an article to that effect. One of the most | :05:22. | :05:28. | |
important things is to secure international agreement. We cannot | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
have the situation where companies are shopping around the world to | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
find the lowest tax regime and inventing company structures to | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
enable that to happen. But if you had a tax on the revenues, it would | :05:40. | :05:44. | |
not happen what they moved around. Revenues are revenues. You would | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
levy a tax on the revenues in the UK. That is why it is worth looking | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
at. It might be a combination of that and economic activity as well. | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
One professor said if you raise corporate taxes too high, companies | :06:01. | :06:04. | |
may move to island macro or elsewhere. Do you accept there has | :06:05. | :06:10. | |
to be a limit? There has to be a limit, there has to be some | :06:11. | :06:14. | |
reasonableness. If we can get international cooperation, you can | :06:15. | :06:17. | |
avoid this development of virtual tax havens taking place. Would you | :06:18. | :06:22. | |
want a common rate of corporation tax? Not necessarily. You would like | :06:23. | :06:28. | |
to make sure that what you charge is reasonable and fair and you would | :06:29. | :06:31. | |
expect those companies to abide by that. I listened to the Google | :06:32. | :06:37. | |
representative this morning. The reputational damage to Google is | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
immense. The savings they have made in taxes not worth the reputational | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
damage. Let's move on to the other big issue, Europe. And membership. | :06:47. | :06:56. | |
How did you vote in the 1975 referendum? Against. In the 1983 | :06:57. | :07:05. | |
Labour manifesto it claimed that a commitment to radical socialist | :07:06. | :07:07. | |
policies was incompatible with membership of the European Union. It | :07:08. | :07:14. | |
proposed withdrawal. Did you agree with that at the time? I did at the | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
time. That is long gone. We're within Europe. We are working within | :07:20. | :07:29. | |
Europe with other parties to see how we can make Europe fair, | :07:30. | :07:30. | |
particularly with regard to the rights of workers. Take this tax | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
issue. We need to be in Europe to ensure we can secure fair agreement | :07:35. | :07:47. | |
on tax. That is why, by remaining within, we have got to remain within | :07:48. | :07:50. | |
with their own reform agenda, that is one of the issues we need to | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
reform. To take that phrase radical socialist policies, you are | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
committed to radical socialist policies. How is that now compatible | :08:00. | :08:07. | |
with remaining in the EU when it was not in 1983? Because we have | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
demonstrated with the work we have undertaken within the EU that we | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
have secured some benefits. Employment rights. In addition, | :08:17. | :08:19. | |
there are real opportunities now where we can work with others to | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
secure that radical change. Withdrawal from Europe at the moment | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
would not be beneficial. It would lose jobs. It would undermine the | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
benefits we have gained in terms of employment. That is why we want to | :08:32. | :08:34. | |
work to reform it. The issue that I have got with the Prime Minister, we | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
will see what he comes back with... On the social Europe issue, you want | :08:40. | :08:46. | |
a more social Europe. In France you have got a socialist government that | :08:47. | :08:49. | |
has moved to the right. In Germany, a centre-right government. Other | :08:50. | :08:56. | |
countries have either the hard right in power or the hard right at the | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
top of the polls. Where is your social Europe in that? That is why | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
we will work with socialist and social Democrats. I think you will | :09:06. | :09:12. | |
see in the coming years that a wider debate is taking place. In some way | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
the referendum debate will enable us to then look at those ideas. | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
Wouldn't it be fair to say that like Jeremy Corbyn, you are pretty | :09:22. | :09:27. | |
lukewarm about our membership of the European Union? I signed up to | :09:28. | :09:33. | |
remain within the EU. That does not mean to say that we accepted as a | :09:34. | :09:40. | |
perfect institution. We want to see reform. I come back to the tax | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
issue. Unless we get international cooperation, particularly across | :09:46. | :09:48. | |
Europe, we will not solve this problem. You have got a Eurosceptic | :09:49. | :09:56. | |
track record. Kate Hoey, a leader -- leading Labour Eurosceptic, she said | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
that you and Jeremy Corbyn consistently voted with Eurosceptic | :10:01. | :10:06. | |
MPs on the EU. That is true, isn't it? On a number of issues, because | :10:07. | :10:09. | |
we were frustrated with the slow pace of reform. That does not mean | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
we are in favour of coming out. It is better to argue from within to | :10:14. | :10:20. | |
secure a commonality of agreement. Do you broadly support the changes | :10:21. | :10:23. | |
that David Cameron is trying to renegotiate? I don't know what they | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
are yet. Let's see what he comes back with. My fear is if he does not | :10:29. | :10:33. | |
treat this issue seriously and it is just about party management, he | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
could blow it. We could be outside of Europe and have the economic | :10:39. | :10:42. | |
penalties as a result. Even if he comes back with something you do not | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
regard as satisfactory, you will campaign to stay in? We will | :10:48. | :10:54. | |
campaign for our own agenda. The government wants to get this done by | :10:55. | :10:57. | |
the end of June. Will you cooperate with that timetable? We will see | :10:58. | :11:04. | |
what he comes back with. Let's have it as soon as possible. We want the | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
debate to take place. Delaying it would not help. We want the debate | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
to start now. It would be better for him to come back fairly soon. Get | :11:13. | :11:18. | |
the debate going. Even if the campaign overlaps with important | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
elections in Scotland, England, Northern Ireland, Wales? That is the | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
problem but it will overlap with something. Immigration is good to be | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
a huge issue. The IMF says that almost 4 million immigrants will | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
arrive in the EU between 2015 and 2017. Almost 4 million. Should | :11:37. | :11:43. | |
Britain take a fair share of that? I think is important we cooperate with | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
our European partners to make that we can accommodate those that need | :11:48. | :11:51. | |
to come to this country. In addition, that we have systems in | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
place that protect wages, so that immigration is not used to undermine | :11:56. | :12:01. | |
wages. But should we take a fair share of the 4 million? I think we | :12:02. | :12:04. | |
should. We should cooperate with others and carry the burden. The | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
majority of Britons want us to rise to it and ensure we assist others | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
and that others are not suffering, and that we do not stand on one side | :12:16. | :12:18. | |
when people suffer. Could you give an indication of how many? Young not | :12:19. | :12:27. | |
at this stage. That would be a matter to negotiate with our | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
European partners. Should we volunteered to be part of the EU | :12:32. | :12:37. | |
quotas system? Mrs Merkel and others want 160,000 to be relocated through | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
Schengen. Should we be part of Schengen? Should we be part of the | :12:42. | :12:48. | |
160,000? We should be doing more in terms of assisting refugees coming | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
from Syria. We should be doing more to help those in desperate need. | :12:54. | :12:57. | |
People are drowning in the Mediterranean. We cannot stand | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
aside. This country has a history of receiving refugees. People watching | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
this would want some sort of idea of numbers because numbers are | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
important. It is important. That is why we need to get into these | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
negotiations quickly and come back with practical proposals. In 2013 | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
you told a gathering of the people's assembly at a rally on immigration | :13:22. | :13:27. | |
that they should be open borders? I was arguing then... There was | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
re-search looking at the long-term structure of the globe. Inevitably | :13:34. | :13:36. | |
in this century we will have open borders. The movement of peoples | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
across the globe will mean that borders will almost become | :13:41. | :13:43. | |
irrelevant by the end of the century. We should be preparing for | :13:44. | :13:49. | |
that and explaining why people move. Conflicts, poverty and destitution, | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
and also climate change. In our policy-making we should be working | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
now to see how we address that. It will mean that we need to look at | :13:59. | :14:02. | |
how we resolve conflicts, how we make the world more equal and also | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
how we tackle climate change. In that way we can deal with the | :14:08. | :14:11. | |
reality of the world, which means that people are not forced to move | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
but there will be movement. Total open borders? At the end of this | :14:17. | :14:21. | |
century that is what will occur. People are ignoring borders already | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
as they fly from Syria. We should be making sure that if there is no | :14:26. | :14:28. | |
forced movement, we look at the push and pull factors. Conflict | :14:29. | :14:35. | |
prevention, the tackling of inequality and policies that tackle | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
climate change. In that way we can cope with the global pressures with | :14:40. | :14:45. | |
regard to population movement. To do that, for a Labour government to | :14:46. | :14:50. | |
prepare for that, would be loosening controls as you move towards that? | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
No. What I am saying is if you look at the analysis of what is happening | :14:55. | :15:00. | |
over the next 75 years, the movement of people is such that borders are | :15:01. | :15:04. | |
very difficult to maintain. That will happen by the end of the | :15:05. | :15:07. | |
century. We should be opening up the debate of how we handle that. One of | :15:08. | :15:12. | |
the issues we have to tackle is why people are moving. It is about | :15:13. | :15:16. | |
conflict and climate change. It is about poverty as well. That means | :15:17. | :15:20. | |
greater equality not just in our country but across the globe. I | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
wanted to talk to you about Google and the EU. I hope you will come | :15:26. | :15:30. | |
back and give me an interview on economic policy. Let me finish with | :15:31. | :15:38. | |
a taster? Back to Professor Blanchflower, he said about you and | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
Mr Corbyn that you have to accept the realities of capitalism and | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
modern markets, like it or not. No more silly stuff about companies not | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
being able to pay dividends if they do not do X or Y. Do you accept | :15:53. | :15:59. | |
that? That is why I appointed him as an advisor. I wanted objective | :16:00. | :16:04. | |
advice. I have established the architecture for the future | :16:05. | :16:05. | |
development of economic policy. Are you going to accept his advice | :16:06. | :16:17. | |
on that? We will listen to his advice and take it on board. But we | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
will also listen to other advisers. But those advisers, what's the point | :16:22. | :16:27. | |
of them if you will not listen? We will test every policy we put | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
forward. On that one, we are hoping that we would avoid any need for | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
that by introducing as we come into covenant a real living wage. In the | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
meantime, we want to campaign with shareholders so they pressurise | :16:41. | :16:43. | |
their companies to abide by a real living wage. I think there is an | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
alliance to be built there. Is it party policy that if companies don't | :16:48. | :16:51. | |
pay what you regard as a living wage, until it's made mandatory, | :16:52. | :16:54. | |
that they shouldn't be allowed to pay dividends? it's one of ideas we | :16:55. | :17:01. | |
have floated for discussion. We have put it to the economic advisers to | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
get their view. Angela Eagle said it's unworkable. That's why it's | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
open for discussion. It's a really good campaigning tool for us to work | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
with shareholders to make sure they exert their influence to ensure | :17:15. | :17:17. | |
their companies, on things like the living wage and paying their taxes | :17:18. | :17:21. | |
as well, to make sure their companies are acting appropriately. | :17:22. | :17:25. | |
John McDonnell, I hope you come back to continue the debate with us. I | :17:26. | :17:26. | |
certainly well. So, David Cameron once dismissed | :17:27. | :17:30. | |
the idea of an emergency This morning, Downing Street | :17:31. | :17:32. | |
is indicating that a brake on welfare benefits for EU | :17:33. | :17:35. | |
migrants might be acceptable if it was applied immediately, | :17:36. | :17:38. | |
but only as a stop-gap measure. This evening, the Prime Minister | :17:39. | :17:40. | |
meets EU Council President Donald Tusk as he tries to broker a deal | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
ahead of a crunch summit of European leaders next month - | :17:45. | :17:50. | |
but will the fractious leave campaigns be in any position to take | :17:51. | :17:54. | |
advantage if he's seen to fail? Right now the future of Britain | :17:55. | :17:57. | |
inside or outside the European Union You might think it started here | :17:58. | :18:04. | |
in Brussels, or that the media's massed ranks are awaiting | :18:05. | :18:13. | |
the outcome in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, | :18:14. | :18:17. | |
or that we are hovering with baited breath for a decision | :18:18. | :18:20. | |
in our own Parliament, but no. This week the decision was made | :18:21. | :18:23. | |
in Havering, in Essex. In this chamber right now, | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
Havering councillors are debating If they do, of course nothing | :18:29. | :18:31. | |
will change, because the smart among you know, no council, | :18:32. | :18:38. | |
not even the British Parliament, Nevertheless Havering Council | :18:39. | :18:40. | |
deliberately didn't deliberate on the leisure centre | :18:41. | :18:48. | |
or meals on wheels. However the Prime Minister meanwhile | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
was hurrying for a deal on wheels - not with councillors, | :18:54. | :18:56. | |
but with 27 EU member states. It's his plan to block in-work | :18:57. | :19:06. | |
benefits for EU migrants for four years that's getting | :19:07. | :19:09. | |
the bumpiest ride. The EU counter proposal | :19:10. | :19:10. | |
of an an "emergency brake" on access to benefits - if a country can prove | :19:11. | :19:13. | |
it's welfare system's under strain - has not gone down well | :19:14. | :19:16. | |
with Eurosceptics back home. They are saying we are | :19:17. | :19:18. | |
allowed to go to Brussels, and ask their permission | :19:19. | :19:26. | |
to change the benefit rules, David Cameron still wants that | :19:27. | :19:28. | |
benefit ban, and knows accepting the emergency brake as is would only | :19:29. | :19:35. | |
accelerate any campaign to leave. We want to end the idea | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
of something for nothing. It's not good enough, | :19:40. | :19:42. | |
it needs more work, I believe we've got to put | :19:43. | :19:48. | |
country before party, country before personality, vote | :19:49. | :19:55. | |
for freedom, and vote for leave. In Havering they aren't waiting | :19:56. | :19:57. | |
for a date or a settlement. The Prime Minster knows Brexit | :19:58. | :20:02. | |
supporters are eyeing his own Cabinet to see who might be tempted | :20:03. | :20:05. | |
do the same. Michael Gove might come | :20:06. | :20:08. | |
out for leave. Boris Johnson, though | :20:09. | :20:12. | |
it's rather doubtful, might just possibly come out | :20:13. | :20:18. | |
for leave, to vote for leave. Theresa May, who almost | :20:19. | :20:21. | |
certainly is preoccupied And finally, Sajid Javid, | :20:22. | :20:22. | |
the Business Secretary, who has the most | :20:23. | :20:27. | |
Eurosceptic record of all. But it's very difficult, | :20:28. | :20:31. | |
when you are a government minister, and you've got real feelings | :20:32. | :20:33. | |
of loyalty to your party and your Prime Minister, | :20:34. | :20:36. | |
to depart from the line. And a lot of pressure, | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
moral pressure, if you like, A Havering Borough MP thinks that | :20:41. | :20:43. | |
kind of pressure is wrong. I think that this is a decision | :20:44. | :20:53. | |
that we all have to make And it shouldn't impede | :20:54. | :20:56. | |
on people's political careers. People should be able | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
to make up their own minds, and not worry about whether they are | :21:02. | :21:04. | |
going to be sidelined or punished Those who do out themselves for out, | :21:05. | :21:07. | |
will need campaign wizards who can Which, of two battling groups, | :21:08. | :21:12. | |
that is yet undecided, but so far both have seen a bad | :21:13. | :21:19. | |
spell of personality clashes and darkening moods way over | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
the heads of most grassroots The chance of winning over | :21:25. | :21:26. | |
undeclared MPs is the magic What we did discover, | :21:27. | :21:30. | |
it's like the dementors slowly sucking the people up out | :21:31. | :21:40. | |
of the air, body I do think that there will be | :21:41. | :21:44. | |
a coming together now, probably for very good reasons, | :21:45. | :21:48. | |
there have been divisions But I think this campaign will not | :21:49. | :21:50. | |
be just politicians. It's about the people | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
versus the elite in many ways. In fact, you have a referendum | :21:55. | :21:56. | |
really in many ways when politicians Meanwhile back in Havering... | :21:57. | :21:59. | |
is they want to do. party motion is therefore | :22:00. | :22:02. | |
carried by 30 votes to 15. So, councillors in Havering have | :22:03. | :22:07. | |
voted for a motion that says Now, there are plenty of councillors | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
who said they don't have any business debating this, | :22:13. | :22:20. | |
they have far more important things But what it might show | :22:21. | :22:22. | |
is that for some people - and in this case, | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
an official elected body - never mind what the date is, | :22:28. | :22:29. | |
and never mind the renegotiation, they would like to make | :22:30. | :22:33. | |
clear their views right now. I'm joined now by the Conservative | :22:34. | :22:41. | |
MP, Steve Baker, co-chairman of Conservatives for Britain | :22:42. | :22:43. | |
and a director of the Vote Leave If the Prime Minister can get an | :22:44. | :22:54. | |
agreement that there will be a break in welfare payments for migrants the | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
day after the referendum, isn't that a powerful thing to take to the | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
country? It's not powerful at all. Bernard Jenkin is the Conservative | :23:04. | :23:07. | |
director of Vote Leave, but we have been told by the OBR that it | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
wouldn't make much difference even if the Prime Minister got this | :23:11. | :23:14. | |
break. They would only take one case brought forward by activist lawyers, | :23:15. | :23:18. | |
and we would expect the European Court of Justice to strike down such | :23:19. | :23:22. | |
a measure. We think it's a red herring, and as John Redwood said, a | :23:23. | :23:27. | |
bad joke. They have ended up trying to manufacture the appearance of | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
success out of very little. As things stand at the moment, there's | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
nothing the Prime Minister would bring back that would make you want | :23:35. | :23:37. | |
to stay in? I've been clear through the whole period that most of us | :23:38. | :23:42. | |
want to end the supremacy of the EU in the UK. Make our own laws in | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
Parliament. The prime ministers had something similar about the European | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
Court of Human Rights. Demanding an opt out from the charter is subbing | :23:52. | :23:54. | |
the Prime Minister has had to give up. So money inconsistencies. The | :23:55. | :24:01. | |
answer is no. I expect a good number of colleagues to join me and | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
campaign to leave at this stage. How many Tory MPs will campaign for out? | :24:05. | :24:12. | |
Of the 150 on the list who have expressed interest, and about a | :24:13. | :24:15. | |
fifth have made up their minds, I think about 50-70. No more than 50 | :24:16. | :24:24. | |
or 70 Tory MPs campaigning on your side of the referendum to leave? | :24:25. | :24:29. | |
That would be my expectation at this stage. John McDonnell said he wanted | :24:30. | :24:33. | |
to get this out of the wear it, the referendum. Didn't sound to me like | :24:34. | :24:38. | |
Labour would join with the SNP on delaying tactics for the referendum. | :24:39. | :24:42. | |
Would you like the referendum to be later? Realistically we are | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
campaigning out to leave the EU and we have secured our objectives for | :24:47. | :24:49. | |
the campaign. But there is a good case to be made that a June date | :24:50. | :24:55. | |
would trust us. There are elections in neigh, and I think there's a good | :24:56. | :25:04. | |
case for a delay until September. I would prefer the government brought | :25:05. | :25:07. | |
forward a measure that went through the Commons without a row, but if | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
Labour and the SNP and conservative colleagues wish to put something | :25:13. | :25:16. | |
through, then we will be able to what's the biggest beach from the -- | :25:17. | :25:23. | |
beast on the cabinet you would like to get? I haven't ruled anybody out. | :25:24. | :25:29. | |
But I'm happy to go into the campaign without any Cabinet big | :25:30. | :25:32. | |
beasts. It would be surprised this point if Chris Grayling didn't join | :25:33. | :25:38. | |
us. He would count as a big beast, leader of the house. People know | :25:39. | :25:45. | |
which Cabinet members are discussed. Theresa May? She made a speech on | :25:46. | :25:55. | |
immigration which would be difficult to recalibrate with the EU. It's a | :25:56. | :26:01. | |
matter for her. You've given up on Bryce Johnson? He occasionally | :26:02. | :26:04. | |
flirts with it in the press. But he's a typical conservative, he | :26:05. | :26:10. | |
loves Europe, he would like Europe to be different, but we'll see what | :26:11. | :26:15. | |
he does when the comes. The different leave campaigns, it's | :26:16. | :26:24. | |
flawed with blood, when will you stop knocking lumps out of each | :26:25. | :26:27. | |
other? I'm not knocking lumps out of anybody and I regret this week that | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
we've had distractions from the core aim of leaving the EU and I regret | :26:33. | :26:36. | |
they have got their way to the press. Everybody involved needs to | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
reach a resolution, everybody involved wants to move on and I hope | :26:40. | :26:44. | |
we do so quickly, let's fight a winning campaign. You are not the | :26:45. | :26:48. | |
director of Vote Leave but you are on the Parliamentary planning | :26:49. | :26:52. | |
committee for Vote Leave, so you are associated. Did you agree with the | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
attempts to get rid of the two full-time people running it, Dominic | :26:57. | :26:59. | |
Cummings and Matthew Elliott? This is a matter for the board. Do you | :27:00. | :27:03. | |
agree with whether they should have gone? At this stage it's very late | :27:04. | :27:08. | |
in the day to make such a profound change. But given the severe | :27:09. | :27:19. | |
concerns of my colleagues, it is clear there will have to be material | :27:20. | :27:22. | |
changes in Vote Leave in order to carry parliamentarians with the | :27:23. | :27:24. | |
campaign. What this material change mean? There has to be a greater | :27:25. | :27:26. | |
degree of involvement with planetary and so they think they are shaping | :27:27. | :27:30. | |
the campaign to win over those voters we need. Will there be a | :27:31. | :27:35. | |
merger in the end? Surely that's what all of you need, you are up | :27:36. | :27:39. | |
against the government, is huge machine, don't you need to be | :27:40. | :27:43. | |
united? It's a David and Goliath battle and we need to be united. The | :27:44. | :27:50. | |
process of unity will come through designation. Realistically, leave. | :27:51. | :27:52. | |
EU is looking at the Courville, where as Vote Leave knows we need | :27:53. | :28:01. | |
the swing vote. -- looking at the core vote. I'm confident that Vote | :28:02. | :28:04. | |
Leave can and will win the referendum. I wouldn't give away the | :28:05. | :28:11. | |
mop in case there is more blood to wipe up. | :28:12. | :28:13. | |
One of David Cameron's four key demands in his EU | :28:14. | :28:16. | |
renegotiation concerns competitiveness. | :28:17. | :28:19. | |
The Prime Minister says the burden of regulation on businesses is too | :28:20. | :28:22. | |
high, and that the EU needs to strengthen the single market | :28:23. | :28:24. | |
and accelerate trade agreements with America and China. | :28:25. | :28:26. | |
Arguments about the economic costs or benefits of membership will form | :28:27. | :28:29. | |
a large part of the referendum campaign, with both sides keen | :28:30. | :28:32. | |
Those campaigning to remain within the EU say our membership | :28:33. | :28:39. | |
is worth ?3000 to every household in Britain. | :28:40. | :28:42. | |
It's based on a CBI claim that the UK's economy is 5% bigger | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
They also claim that 3 million jobs are linked | :28:49. | :28:55. | |
to trade within the EU, that 45% of UK exports of goods | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
and services go to the EU, and that the value of | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
trade with the EU is ?133 billion higher than it would be if we left. | :29:04. | :29:09. | |
Those who argue we would be better off if we left claim that | :29:10. | :29:17. | |
regulations imposed on business by the EU cost over | :29:18. | :29:19. | |
They say the 3 million figure on jobs is | :29:20. | :29:25. | |
dependent on trade with the EU, not membership. | :29:26. | :29:27. | |
They argue that the trade would continue if we voted to leave, | :29:28. | :29:30. | |
because we currently import more than we export from the EU. | :29:31. | :29:33. | |
So its members would want free trade to remain. | :29:34. | :29:36. | |
They further point out that the importance of UK trade | :29:37. | :29:39. | |
They cite ONS figures showing that the proportion | :29:40. | :29:47. | |
of UK exports heading for the EU fell from 54.8% in 1999 | :29:48. | :29:50. | |
But an analysis by the House of Commons Library in 2013 | :29:51. | :30:00. | |
of numerous studies into the economic | :30:01. | :30:03. | |
impact of EU membership found no consensus either way, | :30:04. | :30:05. | |
So, which side will manage to convince voters? | :30:06. | :30:14. | |
I'm joined now by the former trade minister Digby Jones | :30:15. | :30:16. | |
and Richard Reed, who founded Innocent Smoothies, | :30:17. | :30:18. | |
who is campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU. | :30:19. | :30:21. | |
Welcome. Digby Jones, the EU accounts for 45% of our exports. Why | :30:22. | :30:32. | |
would you risk any of that? That will not change. Because in the | :30:33. | :30:39. | |
morning after any referendum result, Germany, it is pivotal on Germany, | :30:40. | :30:45. | |
would immediately want some form of tariff free arrangement with | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
Britain. They make a million cars they sell in Britain a year. 75 to | :30:50. | :30:55. | |
80% of all the trains in this country are built in Dusseldorf. We | :30:56. | :31:01. | |
do not know for sure? No. Germany does it and the others follow. There | :31:02. | :31:08. | |
are many arguments to stay in. But the one thing we should kill now is | :31:09. | :31:14. | |
that not one job in Britain is at risk because of EU membership. Not | :31:15. | :31:20. | |
one. There would be a free-trade agreement because we are so | :31:21. | :31:24. | |
important to Europe. And by the way that does not mean there are not | :31:25. | :31:28. | |
other reasons why not -- why we might not want to be in or out. I | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
get so frustrated when people talk about jobs at risk. It is rubbish. | :31:34. | :31:39. | |
That is very easy thing to call total nonsense. It is clear that if | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
your biggest market is suddenly interfered with, that it will not | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
somehow affect trade, does not make sense. You know more than most | :31:49. | :31:50. | |
people that businesses need certainty. What we have right now is | :31:51. | :31:56. | |
unfettered access to the largest market in the world. The fact that | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
we want to start playing around with this and that is good for business, | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
it does not make sense. I do not see the added value in belonging to a | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
club that fetters small businesses in this country every day. | :32:10. | :32:24. | |
I am a small business. I have done it for years. This is a colossal | :32:25. | :32:33. | |
opportunity. If you are an entrepreneur in the UK. You're | :32:34. | :32:39. | |
making it sound like it makes it more difficult. It makes it much | :32:40. | :32:43. | |
easier because it is one set of regulations and 500 million | :32:44. | :32:49. | |
consumers. If you have a shop, would you want 60 million people walk by | :32:50. | :32:55. | |
our 500 million people walk by? You can achieve that through a | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
free-trade agreement. You get the sales prevention team in Brussels | :33:00. | :33:02. | |
marching valiantly towards 1970, trying to save this is how you will | :33:03. | :33:10. | |
lead your small business in Hartlepool. But we all know that | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
Sutherland Europe, compliance is a voluntary event. We all know that | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
the French do not obey these rules. Then we and northern Europe, we are | :33:21. | :33:26. | |
by no means the best, we obey this stuff. And a small business who | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
doesn't have lobbyists in Brussels, and you know this... I know this. | :33:32. | :33:39. | |
Britain loves a bit of regulation. You are absolutely right. If we come | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
out and you say we will still trade, we will still have to comply with | :33:44. | :33:48. | |
the regulation. That is the condition of free trade. We will not | :33:49. | :33:52. | |
avoid regulation. The regulation is there whether we are in or out. If | :33:53. | :33:57. | |
we are in, we get to influence the regulation. We get to have the voice | :33:58. | :34:01. | |
heard. You tell that to the money men in the City who have seen | :34:02. | :34:10. | |
legislation come down from Brussels. You see what happens when we're not | :34:11. | :34:15. | |
there when the big decisions are made. You think we have no | :34:16. | :34:20. | |
influence? We're one of the three big forces in Europe. We are one of | :34:21. | :34:23. | |
the three biggest economies in Europe. Digby Jones, I want to ask | :34:24. | :34:31. | |
you this. You assume we will still have unfettered access to the single | :34:32. | :34:36. | |
market. But it has been pointed out by Richard Reid that that means we | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
would have to meet the conditions of getting into the single market. | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
Could there be other costs? Free movement of people may be a cost. | :34:45. | :34:48. | |
That is a price Switzerland and Norway pay. Let's Explorer that. I'm | :34:49. | :34:54. | |
concerned this referendum is going to become a referendum purely on a | :34:55. | :34:58. | |
migration on the street, when we ought to be discussing how can | :34:59. | :35:03. | |
European Union reform and improve the life of an unemployed | :35:04. | :35:07. | |
25-year-old in Madrid and a single mother in Athens? How can the power | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
of Britain, economic and otherwise, how can it be seen as a driver to | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
get the standard of living up? If you base your economy on exporting | :35:18. | :35:22. | |
our lives and importing BMWs, you will go bust. They are asking Europe | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
to subsidise the growth of our lives, in the hope that for some | :35:28. | :35:31. | |
reason on skilled people in Europe will do this. You are going to get | :35:32. | :35:34. | |
on skilled people in Europe coming to rich countries instead of | :35:35. | :35:40. | |
actually getting skilled people in Europe being marketable in northern | :35:41. | :35:44. | |
Europe. You can only pull that off with reform. We should not be | :35:45. | :35:52. | |
campaigning to stop these people coming. We should be campaigning to | :35:53. | :35:55. | |
get the skills base of Europe up so they get wealthy, but more | :35:56. | :36:00. | |
importantly, they are more marketable in our market. The | :36:01. | :36:05. | |
British government has enough trouble getting the skills base | :36:06. | :36:08. | |
right in Britain without trying to get it right in southern Europe. | :36:09. | :36:13. | |
Richard Reid, you say that we are in the club that we can influence the | :36:14. | :36:19. | |
rules. Let me put the question. The British have been on the wrong end | :36:20. | :36:24. | |
of EU majorities on these rules more than any other country that is a | :36:25. | :36:28. | |
member of the EU. We really get away on these things. You are joking. We | :36:29. | :36:35. | |
have got the best possible setup. We are part of the EU. We said no to | :36:36. | :36:42. | |
the euro, no to Schengen, no to force migratory bird it is. Why so | :36:43. | :36:51. | |
many majority votes? This is a macro decision. Once in a generation. We | :36:52. | :36:57. | |
have got to get it right. The big picture is it is a colossal | :36:58. | :37:01. | |
opportunity and we have got the best version of the deal. When you and I | :37:02. | :37:07. | |
were arguing cases about whether we should join the euro years ago, I | :37:08. | :37:12. | |
can remember sitting in television studios and being told the world was | :37:13. | :37:16. | |
going to end and we were going to go to Armageddon and back if we did not | :37:17. | :37:21. | |
join the euro. We made the right decision about the euro. This | :37:22. | :37:29. | |
interview has come to an end. I thank you both. | :37:30. | :37:31. | |
It's just gone 11:35 - you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :37:32. | :37:33. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :37:34. | :37:36. | |
Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be hearing from our political panel. | :37:37. | :37:45. | |
Are plans to devolve the rail franchises | :37:46. | :37:48. | |
to the Welsh Government about to hit the buffers? | :37:49. | :37:50. | |
We hear concerns about plans to split control of trains running | :37:51. | :37:53. | |
And with a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU possibly months | :37:54. | :37:57. | |
away, we ask "what's best for Wales?" | :37:58. | :38:11. | |
But first what's next for Welsh railways? | :38:12. | :38:12. | |
Ministers here will be given responsibility for running many | :38:13. | :38:15. | |
services from next year, but the UK Government may retain | :38:16. | :38:17. | |
control over trains that run from here into England. | :38:18. | :38:19. | |
One rail expert told us this would be "a completely daft idea", | :38:20. | :38:22. | |
while the Welsh Transport Minister says UK officials are ignorant. | :38:23. | :38:25. | |
More from her in a moment, but first Cemlyn Davies reports | :38:26. | :38:27. | |
on what's coming down the track for Welsh railways. | :38:28. | :38:37. | |
Britain had a nationalised rail service and there were no franchises | :38:38. | :38:41. | |
The steam of yesteryear has now given way to a much foggier picture, | :38:42. | :38:45. | |
where borders and responsibilities are blurred. | :38:46. | :38:49. | |
Like most roots in Wales, the Aberystwyth to Birmingham | :38:50. | :38:51. | |
International line is part of the Wales and Borders rail | :38:52. | :38:54. | |
franchise, which will soon become the Welsh Government 's | :38:55. | :38:56. | |
responsibility but it seems the map could be very different and much | :38:57. | :38:59. | |
There is a suggestion now that certain services like this one | :39:00. | :39:08. | |
starting in Wales but ending in England could be broken up | :39:09. | :39:10. | |
with different companies providing the service either side | :39:11. | :39:12. | |
of Offa's Dyke and that could leave passengers travelling to places | :39:13. | :39:15. | |
like Birmingham from Aberystwyth having to change at a station | :39:16. | :39:17. | |
That is a very bad situation, especially for people | :39:18. | :39:31. | |
going to Birmingham International Airport, which is people | :39:32. | :39:33. | |
from university, hospital, travelling a lot, going | :39:34. | :39:34. | |
I am going to Manchester, I have to change over | :39:35. | :39:45. | |
It is only about 20, 25 minutes, maybe a half-hour | :39:46. | :39:49. | |
It is just the best option for me really. | :39:50. | :39:56. | |
I remember the sunny days when you could get a train | :39:57. | :39:58. | |
to Aberystwyth once-a-day, all the way to London. | :39:59. | :40:00. | |
Most of the passengers go as far as Shrewsbury, about 75%, | :40:01. | :40:07. | |
and about 50% of passengers are actually going beyond Shrewsbury | :40:08. | :40:10. | |
to mostly Birmingham, Birmingham International | :40:11. | :40:11. | |
or of course London, which is a major destination. | :40:12. | :40:17. | |
The UK Government has said it expects that services primarily | :40:18. | :40:20. | |
serving English passengers will be remapped and taken out of the Wales | :40:21. | :40:23. | |
and Borders franchise to ensure proper accountability. | :40:24. | :40:24. | |
The Welsh Government meanwhile has launched a consultation | :40:25. | :40:26. | |
into the future of the Wales and Borders franchise and though | :40:27. | :40:29. | |
the document makes no reference to any possible redrawing | :40:30. | :40:31. | |
of the rail network, Carwyn Jones did have this to say | :40:32. | :40:34. | |
It is the suggestion of the Department for Transport | :40:35. | :40:40. | |
that they do not want to see rail services exist between a departure | :40:41. | :40:43. | |
point in Wales and a terminus point in England and vice versa. | :40:44. | :40:46. | |
We are more than happy to make that case to the UK Government. | :40:47. | :40:53. | |
But it is important to understand that is the attitude that has been | :40:54. | :40:56. | |
taken so far by the Department for Transport. | :40:57. | :41:05. | |
As well as the Aberystwyth to Birmingham line, | :41:06. | :41:06. | |
there are questions over the future of the Milford Haven to Manchester | :41:07. | :41:10. | |
service and the route between Holyhead and Manchester | :41:11. | :41:11. | |
Despite running through England, it is understood the Cardiff | :41:12. | :41:18. | |
to Holyhead line would not be affected because that journey | :41:19. | :41:20. | |
And neither would the route between London and Swansea | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
or Holyhead because they are part of separate franchises. | :41:25. | :41:35. | |
The suggestion has baffled industry experts, including Christian Wolmar. | :41:36. | :41:37. | |
The transport journalist, who does have strong Labour ties, | :41:38. | :41:39. | |
has written extensively about the British railway system. | :41:40. | :41:45. | |
I think this is a completely daft idea. | :41:46. | :41:47. | |
It is the sort of thing that has arisen out of the fact | :41:48. | :41:50. | |
that the railway is privatised, so the English government seems | :41:51. | :41:52. | |
to be worried that the Welsh Government would have control of say | :41:53. | :41:55. | |
a train that ran from Aberystwyth to Birmingham and in the English | :41:56. | :41:58. | |
part of it, the Welsh Government would be running it and therefore | :41:59. | :42:01. | |
might say in things like the timetable and services | :42:02. | :42:03. | |
I think that is a completely ridiculous notion and hopefully, | :42:04. | :42:14. | |
The UK Government says it is working closely with the Welsh ministers | :42:15. | :42:23. | |
and no decision will be made without taking local | :42:24. | :42:25. | |
The strength of opposition to any change is already clear. | :42:26. | :42:29. | |
It is ludicrous, it is impractical, it is being done behind-the-scenes | :42:30. | :42:36. | |
with a lot of secrecy initially anyway, and we are determined | :42:37. | :42:38. | |
It is not in the interest of passengers. | :42:39. | :42:43. | |
It would affect the tourist industry. | :42:44. | :42:49. | |
This train left Aberystwyth on time for its journey through mid Wales | :42:50. | :42:52. | |
and into England but it is unclear how far it will be allowed to travel | :42:53. | :42:56. | |
Our reporter Carl Roberts caught up with the Transport Minister in | :42:57. | :43:07. | |
Edwina Hart's standing down in a few weeks of course, | :43:08. | :43:12. | |
after a ministerial career where she's been known | :43:13. | :43:14. | |
Carl asked Mrs Hart for her take on this situation. | :43:15. | :43:21. | |
We understand that this has been mooted in discussions at official | :43:22. | :43:24. | |
level and obviously, we are very unhappy about that | :43:25. | :43:26. | |
because we want to ensure that those services remain | :43:27. | :43:28. | |
within the franchise, it makes it a very value added | :43:29. | :43:36. | |
So obviously we will be pressing our case to ensure | :43:37. | :43:39. | |
that the franchise arrangements include cross-border. | :43:40. | :43:45. | |
What do you think the motivation is for these suggestions? | :43:46. | :43:47. | |
Why are these being discussed from a Department for Transport | :43:48. | :43:49. | |
Some people say it would be to sabotage any franchise and make | :43:50. | :43:54. | |
it less appealing to anybody who might want to bid for it. | :43:55. | :43:56. | |
Yes, I think people do try and say things, that there are these | :43:57. | :44:00. | |
I sometimes think that some people that you deal with do not actually | :44:01. | :44:05. | |
understand Wales and they do not understand how things work | :44:06. | :44:07. | |
I mean sometimes there are officials at various levels within the DFT | :44:08. | :44:15. | |
but I have to say at the end of the day, my job is to ensure | :44:16. | :44:18. | |
we have the best possible service and the best franchise | :44:19. | :44:21. | |
and that is not the right way to go ahead. | :44:22. | :44:23. | |
I am basing my comments on ignorance rather than conspiracy theory. | :44:24. | :44:28. | |
You have said in the past that any future franchise, you think | :44:29. | :44:30. | |
that the people of Wales would like to see rail services | :44:31. | :44:33. | |
You say that is what the people of Wales think. | :44:34. | :44:36. | |
I don't think I have used the word nationalised in that way. | :44:37. | :44:41. | |
There is much more accountability for the public, which I think | :44:42. | :44:47. | |
there will be when we look at how we might set things up | :44:48. | :44:50. | |
Because I don't think it has been really well-run, | :44:51. | :44:53. | |
in terms of what happens now with rail. | :44:54. | :44:55. | |
We have all the problems with Network Rail, which are very | :44:56. | :44:58. | |
real to us in Wales, projects overrunning, | :44:59. | :45:00. | |
costs overrunning, and you have no control over Network Rail really | :45:01. | :45:02. | |
because they are judge, jury and executioner, | :45:03. | :45:04. | |
Do you foresee a situation where the Welsh Government would be | :45:05. | :45:11. | |
running those services, perhaps putting an arm 's length | :45:12. | :45:14. | |
company to do the work for you, but firmly managed and run | :45:15. | :45:16. | |
with responsibility with the Welsh Government? | :45:17. | :45:20. | |
Yes, and I do see that as being the future and we have a lot | :45:21. | :45:23. | |
of support for locking up these issues like this. | :45:24. | :45:25. | |
We have already indicated what we would do with the Metro | :45:26. | :45:29. | |
And that is very important because people can have confidence | :45:30. | :45:33. | |
that they will actually have input in to what is happening. | :45:34. | :45:35. | |
There is such a lot going on in terms of transport. | :45:36. | :45:38. | |
You have the franchise discussions, all the issues | :45:39. | :45:40. | |
about electrification, and with electrification, | :45:41. | :45:41. | |
there is great disappoint but where we are now in Swansea | :45:42. | :45:44. | |
because they really wanted to be part of the electrification straight | :45:45. | :45:46. | |
They are going to a different control period. | :45:47. | :45:58. | |
They are worried it might never happen. | :45:59. | :46:00. | |
And the impact then further west if electrification does not come | :46:01. | :46:02. | |
to Swansea, so people do want to feel that there | :46:03. | :46:05. | |
is a government fighting for them to have more control over things. | :46:06. | :46:08. | |
We asked people about you and the kind of person you are, | :46:09. | :46:11. | |
They say you make decisions, you get things done. | :46:12. | :46:14. | |
Is it with regret that by the time you leave office that the future | :46:15. | :46:18. | |
of any new M4 relief road is still up in the air? | :46:19. | :46:21. | |
No, I think we have gone through a process with | :46:22. | :46:23. | |
I think there is a lot of hot air around the M4 relief road. | :46:24. | :46:27. | |
At the end of the day, we will end up with a public | :46:28. | :46:30. | |
enquiry, we have all the environmental considerations | :46:31. | :46:32. | |
I think when you leave politics, there will always be things | :46:33. | :46:37. | |
you would have liked to have been there, but that would mean | :46:38. | :46:40. | |
you would have to carry on and live long enough to do it | :46:41. | :46:43. | |
And I am not one of those politicians who think you have | :46:44. | :46:47. | |
to keep on forever, things can get done when you're not there. | :46:48. | :46:50. | |
In public life, there have been to many that have thought that. | :46:51. | :46:56. | |
And the final question from me, if you are not on the train | :46:57. | :46:59. | |
going from Swansea to London, do you think you will be driving | :47:00. | :47:02. | |
Well, I would very much hope that we can proceed | :47:03. | :47:06. | |
with the project, we are very committed to the project. | :47:07. | :47:08. | |
Obviously, there are other hurdles to go through. | :47:09. | :47:10. | |
There will be a public enquiry and everything. | :47:11. | :47:12. | |
But I know one thing, that I will be retired, | :47:13. | :47:15. | |
but there are a lot of people that require that for work and the CBI | :47:16. | :47:18. | |
and all of them are very strong behind the need to ensure we have | :47:19. | :47:22. | |
economic prosperity and they regard that as being a key issue, | :47:23. | :47:24. | |
It's possible that we're less than six months away | :47:25. | :47:31. | |
from a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave | :47:32. | :47:34. | |
David Cameron wants to apply a so-called emergency brake | :47:35. | :47:40. | |
on the ability of EU migrants to receive in-work | :47:41. | :47:42. | |
And he wants to apply that brake the day after a referendum. | :47:43. | :47:55. | |
There's an important meeting tonight at Downing Street . | :47:56. | :47:57. | |
If Mr Cameron gets his own way, the vote could take place in June. | :47:58. | :48:00. | |
In a moment we'll discuss this with one person who wants to leave, | :48:01. | :48:03. | |
In Wales, we have already had some of the issues debated | :48:04. | :48:10. | |
when Carwyn Jones went head-to-head with Nigel Farage | :48:11. | :48:12. | |
Last week, the Secretary of State for Wales, Stephen Crabb, | :48:13. | :48:15. | |
set out his stall, as being in favour of staying | :48:16. | :48:18. | |
in if David Cameron gets the changes he wants, | :48:19. | :48:20. | |
so when I met him, I asked him if there were any circumstances | :48:21. | :48:23. | |
where he would not back the Prime Minister. | :48:24. | :48:25. | |
Well, we are going into this renegotiation process | :48:26. | :48:27. | |
with confidence that we can get a deal and if you look at the track | :48:28. | :48:30. | |
record of the Prime Minister, even when every other commentator | :48:31. | :48:33. | |
has been predicting that he would not be able to get | :48:34. | :48:35. | |
reform in Europe, whether we are talking about securing the rebate | :48:36. | :48:38. | |
or getting a real terms reduction in the European Union budget, | :48:39. | :48:41. | |
he achieved that, so we have got confidence that he can get a good | :48:42. | :48:44. | |
I have got confidence in that, which is why I am confident that | :48:45. | :48:51. | |
when the referendum comes, when we get that successful | :48:52. | :48:53. | |
renegotiation, I can go out as Secretary of State for Wales | :48:54. | :48:56. | |
and campaign on a strong and pragmatic case for Wales | :48:57. | :48:58. | |
and Britain to remain inside a reformed European Union. | :48:59. | :49:02. | |
What we don't have yet is the exact meaning of what a good | :49:03. | :49:05. | |
The proposal for a four-year period before which European migrants | :49:06. | :49:15. | |
would not be able to claim in work benefits, that proposal | :49:16. | :49:18. | |
is still on the table, that proposal is still | :49:19. | :49:20. | |
being discussed with our European partners. | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
Now, if our European partners come back to us and say, | :49:25. | :49:27. | |
look, there is another way we can help you which even the same | :49:28. | :49:30. | |
objective, and let's recognise what the broad objective is, | :49:31. | :49:32. | |
which is to reduce the pull factor of welfare policy, | :49:33. | :49:34. | |
increasing immigration into the UK, of course, we want skills, | :49:35. | :49:37. | |
we want talent to come to Wales and to come to Britain, | :49:38. | :49:40. | |
what we don't want is our welfare policies providing | :49:41. | :49:42. | |
Now, the European member states, the other member states, | :49:43. | :49:48. | |
know this is a difficult area that they get where we are coming | :49:49. | :49:51. | |
from and although it is painstaking, it is difficult discussions, | :49:52. | :49:53. | |
I am confident that they will see sense and help us reach | :49:54. | :49:56. | |
When it comes to the campaign itself, whenever that might be, | :49:57. | :50:05. | |
do you think there needs to be a different emphasis on the campaign | :50:06. | :50:08. | |
in Wales, considering Wales is the only part of the UK receiving | :50:09. | :50:11. | |
Does that sway how the debate should be held in Wales? | :50:12. | :50:15. | |
The point I am making in this speech is this should be about weighing up | :50:16. | :50:19. | |
the risks and opportunities, both options, either staying | :50:20. | :50:21. | |
And of course, in Wales, we have issues with a greater | :50:22. | :50:25. | |
than average proportion of farming subsidies and structural payments | :50:26. | :50:27. | |
like objective one, those are clearly factors that we need | :50:28. | :50:30. | |
What I don't like is to see the debate in Wales simply | :50:31. | :50:34. | |
focus on those issues, which is the traditional evidence | :50:35. | :50:38. | |
and arguments that politicians in Wales tend to use to back up this | :50:39. | :50:44. | |
kind of unthinking stay the European Union | :50:45. | :50:52. | |
I am saying we need a bit more of a considered approach, | :50:53. | :51:04. | |
one that actually look as at the risks and the | :51:05. | :51:06. | |
opportunities, weighs it up, it is a hard-headed, | :51:07. | :51:08. | |
In Wales, we have got issues that are important. | :51:09. | :51:14. | |
But the hard-headed pragmatic approach will be over the last seven | :51:15. | :51:17. | |
or eight years, ?1 billion of structural funds has come | :51:18. | :51:19. | |
The leave side will say, well, that is British money that | :51:20. | :51:23. | |
That is why I am asking, do you think that element should | :51:24. | :51:29. | |
This referendum that we are going to have in the next year or so, | :51:30. | :51:36. | |
this will be a once in a generation decision. | :51:37. | :51:38. | |
Now, it is a decision for the long-term. | :51:39. | :51:40. | |
Now, we should not be making arguments for the long-term based | :51:41. | :51:42. | |
on the fact that we are getting temporary payments from | :51:43. | :51:45. | |
the European Union because of economic failure in Wales. | :51:46. | :51:47. | |
Objective one is not an accolade for Wales. | :51:48. | :51:49. | |
We should be aiming and working and doing everything we possibly can | :51:50. | :51:52. | |
Because that is actually a mark of economic failure, | :51:53. | :51:55. | |
So let's weigh up the pros and cons, we will take into account | :51:56. | :52:00. | |
all of these different issues, structural funds, farming payments, | :52:01. | :52:02. | |
Our ambitions should be for Wales to be punching well above its weight | :52:03. | :52:07. | |
within the European economy, rather than trailing behind. | :52:08. | :52:16. | |
You will be aware of this letter that has been sent by Carwyn Jones | :52:17. | :52:23. | |
and the leaders of all four political parties in the assembly, | :52:24. | :52:26. | |
as well as the views of Nicola Sturgeon, | :52:27. | :52:33. | |
which is that the referendum should not be held too close | :52:34. | :52:36. | |
to the assembly and local elections in May. | :52:37. | :52:38. | |
That would rule out a June referendum. | :52:39. | :52:40. | |
Can I ask, what is your view on that? | :52:41. | :52:42. | |
I was really surprised that Carwyn Jones put his name to that | :52:43. | :52:45. | |
letter, given that it was Carwyn Jones who kicked | :52:46. | :52:47. | |
off his own assembly campaign at the start of this year | :52:48. | :52:49. | |
with a head-to-head debate against Nigel Farage | :52:50. | :52:51. | |
I think he is trying to have it both ways. | :52:52. | :52:56. | |
They all made the case last year that they should not | :52:57. | :52:59. | |
have the referendum on the same day as the elections | :53:00. | :53:01. | |
to the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament. | :53:02. | :53:03. | |
I happen to believe that there is no great problem in combining elections | :53:04. | :53:07. | |
on a particular day, but we listened to the arguments | :53:08. | :53:09. | |
and we made a commitment not to have it on the same day. | :53:10. | :53:13. | |
Now they have moved the goalposts and say, we don't want | :53:14. | :53:17. | |
the referendum happening within a number of months or weeks | :53:18. | :53:19. | |
of the assembly and the Scottish Parliament elections. | :53:20. | :53:21. | |
I think there is a bit of silliness going on here. | :53:22. | :53:24. | |
I think people in Wales are well able to handle debates | :53:25. | :53:26. | |
about different issues in roughly the same time period and I think it | :53:27. | :53:30. | |
I'm joined now to chew over some of those points by Eluned Parrott | :53:31. | :53:39. | |
who speaks on Europe for the Lib Dems and Sam Gould | :53:40. | :53:41. | |
These changes, these proposals that David Cameron wants to see to limit | :53:42. | :54:01. | |
in work benefits for migrants for four years, what does that mean? | :54:02. | :54:08. | |
Does that make the European Union a less attractive policy for you? Not | :54:09. | :54:14. | |
at all. Regardless of the package of changes that evict Cameron is hoping | :54:15. | :54:20. | |
to achieve on a pragmatic basis, the long-term picture for Europe is one | :54:21. | :54:25. | |
of partnership with our nations. Looking to the long-term, the | :54:26. | :54:31. | |
economic opportunities to help collaborate together across Europe, | :54:32. | :54:34. | |
to fight against the threat of jobs being lost to the Far East, it is | :54:35. | :54:37. | |
about tackling climate change over the long-term, it is about those | :54:38. | :54:42. | |
international relationships we have developed for a long period of time | :54:43. | :54:47. | |
that have helped to bring as security and stability. I do not | :54:48. | :54:54. | |
think what David Cameron achieves will sway either of you too but do | :54:55. | :54:58. | |
you think for the British voters, if he can come back and say he has a | :54:59. | :55:03. | |
good deal on for example benefits, that may sway some of the uncertain | :55:04. | :55:08. | |
voters? I think the voters will see through the smoke and mirrors being | :55:09. | :55:12. | |
created from David Cameron. I do not think in any way he's gone to get a | :55:13. | :55:16. | |
good deal. This emergency brake on migration, it is allowing him to go | :55:17. | :55:22. | |
back to Brussels and actually request for rest to then have | :55:23. | :55:26. | |
another break on migration. It is not giving them any real power. The | :55:27. | :55:30. | |
fact that he has to go around Europe and the different states begging for | :55:31. | :55:34. | |
his own right to actually change his own laws is not a leader of an | :55:35. | :55:39. | |
independent nation. What do you think about this matter of him | :55:40. | :55:45. | |
having the emergency brake the day after a referendum and it would he | :55:46. | :55:48. | |
in place for seven years while they work on a more permanent fixture? | :55:49. | :55:54. | |
Doesn't that undermine one of the key plus points for the remainder | :55:55. | :56:04. | |
said which is that uncertainty? It just be tinkering again if the UK | :56:05. | :56:09. | |
remains. Not at all. Over a period of time it is the challenges facing | :56:10. | :56:15. | |
Europe. There will be changes negotiated between the European | :56:16. | :56:18. | |
states but of course those decisions for the European Parliament and our | :56:19. | :56:23. | |
elected heads of states as part of the Council of Europe. There are | :56:24. | :56:28. | |
inevitably going to be different crises that approach Europe and we | :56:29. | :56:30. | |
will need to take those into account and deal with them as they arise but | :56:31. | :56:36. | |
what I am talking about is those long-term challenges that can mean | :56:37. | :56:39. | |
constant, climate change, making sure that we are economic leverage | :56:40. | :56:44. | |
the time that we can brave the swings and fortunes of the global | :56:45. | :56:49. | |
market. And also things like making sure we have research and | :56:50. | :56:52. | |
development in our universities, investment going there and making | :56:53. | :56:57. | |
sure that we have things like the common agricultural policy, a stable | :56:58. | :57:00. | |
food base and farmers that are able to survive without it. That is a | :57:01. | :57:05. | |
good point, isn't it? For the remainder said, you can list off a | :57:06. | :57:09. | |
whole load of attractive things. From the leave said, there is a | :57:10. | :57:13. | |
danger that it is unlawful lot of uncertainty when you are looking | :57:14. | :57:17. | |
things like trade and so on. Is that a concern as a mark not at all. I | :57:18. | :57:22. | |
think there is more uncertainty of we remain. If you look at the case | :57:23. | :57:27. | |
of Welsh steel and the uncertainty that has been there. We have lost | :57:28. | :57:31. | |
hundreds of jobs we simply as a result of the European Union doing | :57:32. | :57:36. | |
absolutely nothing. We need our own control over the UK markets to | :57:37. | :57:39. | |
ensure we can protect British jobs first. That is the steel industry | :57:40. | :57:44. | |
but there are an awful lot of other issues, trade for example with the | :57:45. | :57:49. | |
European Union, a huge amount of exports from the UK. You would have | :57:50. | :57:54. | |
to sort of renegotiate all those different factors without knowing | :57:55. | :57:57. | |
exactly what the end point would be? The EU will offer a trade deal | :57:58. | :58:06. | |
within 24 hours of us leaving. That is not cast is your opinion. That | :58:07. | :58:13. | |
would have to remain. We would regain our seat on the World Trade | :58:14. | :58:15. | |
Organisation, enabling us to make our own trade arrangements. PE you | :58:16. | :58:20. | |
has not made trade arrangements with United States of America or China, | :58:21. | :58:24. | |
some of the biggest market in the world. We will be able to do that as | :58:25. | :58:27. | |
an independent nation. We import billions of pounds worth of projects | :58:28. | :58:31. | |
from the EU. We import more than we actually export to it. It is in | :58:32. | :58:36. | |
their interest to make sure we have a free-trade arrangement with them. | :58:37. | :58:39. | |
It makes freedom far easier for trade. That is absolute nonsense. | :58:40. | :58:46. | |
They are undergoing those negotiations over a union with | :58:47. | :58:51. | |
America. But it is an absolute nonsense. 44% of Britain's trade | :58:52. | :58:56. | |
goes to European nations. Emerging, developing countries, that is about | :58:57. | :59:00. | |
it said, according to the latest figures. It would be absolutely | :59:01. | :59:04. | |
devastating to the British economy and to Wales in particular if people | :59:05. | :59:09. | |
who have come and invested in Wales decided all of a sudden that they | :59:10. | :59:13. | |
would have to leave because the reason the game here is it was an | :59:14. | :59:17. | |
entry point to the European market. The European market is half a | :59:18. | :59:21. | |
billion consumers and ?10 trillion in value. The UK market as an entry | :59:22. | :59:25. | |
point is nowhere near as attractive. A separate issue, to pick up on what | :59:26. | :59:31. | |
Stephen Crabb said in the interview there, does it need to be a | :59:32. | :59:34. | |
different emphasis in Wales when you consider the billions of pounds over | :59:35. | :59:38. | |
the last ten years or so that have come from EU structural objective | :59:39. | :59:43. | |
one funds # I have heard the argument, it is edition money that | :59:44. | :59:47. | |
will come to Wales anyway. Again, that is not a guarantee. When the | :59:48. | :59:54. | |
European Union is growing, there is the fact that when Turkey joins the | :59:55. | :59:57. | |
European Union, Stephen Crabb is more than aware that the funding | :59:58. | :00:01. | |
into Wales will then also decrease. There is far more sense -- certainty | :00:02. | :00:05. | |
when we take control of our funds. In terms of trade negotiations, the | :00:06. | :00:10. | |
transatlantic trade negotiation partnership is being negotiated in | :00:11. | :00:17. | |
secret, it puts many of our things in Wales at risk. It puts the NHS at | :00:18. | :00:21. | |
risk and could lead to privatisation of the NHS, which we want to stop. | :00:22. | :00:26. | |
Actually, that is not true. It is your policy in the UK as Ukip to | :00:27. | :00:35. | |
scrap the NHS. That is not the case. Thank you very much for coming in. | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
Don't forget you can follow all the latest on Twitter. | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
talk about themselves and the mayoral budget. Back to Andrew. | :00:41. | :00:53. | |
Welcome back. Let's return to the issue of Google's tax bill. It is | :00:54. | :01:01. | |
not just Google. Earlier I spoke to John McDonnell and asked him what he | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
would do to make sure that companies like Google pay a fair and | :01:05. | :01:10. | |
appropriate level of tax. First of all, I want the information about | :01:11. | :01:14. | |
how the deal was arrived at and I want them in future to publish their | :01:15. | :01:22. | |
tax records, the British part. So we can have openness and transparency, | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
we can see what is fair. The Chancellor said this was a major | :01:26. | :01:29. | |
success, but we cannot tell because we have not got the information. | :01:30. | :01:36. | |
I would suggest that the Google row rumbles on by Google appearing with | :01:37. | :01:40. | |
Andrew Marr this morning. There are other companies in the frame like | :01:41. | :01:46. | |
Amazon, Apple, big investigation by the European Commission -- | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
commission. And we discover that a lot of major British multinationals | :01:50. | :01:55. | |
do not pay any are very small amounts of corporation tax. This | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
issue has got a long way to go, I would suggest? Yes, and it could end | :01:59. | :02:04. | |
up in a transatlantic almost cold war between the EU and the US and in | :02:05. | :02:11. | |
particular US companies. Each side thinks the other is trying to | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
exploit its site disproportionately. I wonder if eventually the people | :02:16. | :02:18. | |
who ultimately lobby for International corporate tax reform | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
and clarity will be corporations themselves. At the moment they are | :02:24. | :02:26. | |
getting into trouble of what is ultimately observing the letter of | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
the law, and certainly observing their duty to pay the legal minimum | :02:31. | :02:35. | |
of tax, the duty they have to their shareholders. If that is getting | :02:36. | :02:38. | |
them into trouble, I think they have an incentive in the long run to | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
press for a clarity and reform internationally, even if it means | :02:43. | :02:46. | |
their aggregate tax payment goes slightly upwards. The irony is that | :02:47. | :02:51. | |
this row comes after there has been major changes at the OECD level, at | :02:52. | :02:57. | |
EU level, on trying to simplify and get multinationals to pay their due | :02:58. | :03:03. | |
tax. And yet we seem to be no further forward than before. I | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
wonder if people start looking harder at corporation tax and | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
whether that is the right way to proceed? S there are other ways of | :03:13. | :03:16. | |
doing it. You can do it on turnover, sales. These large companies that | :03:17. | :03:21. | |
are taking bigger and bigger slabs of the British markets are not | :03:22. | :03:31. | |
paying their tax. Think of the people competing against Amazon. | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
Argos, the local book shop... It is not fair. Their sense of | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
indignation... Then to discover that the Conservative Party, while | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
talking about how they are trying to clean this up and they are doing | :03:47. | :03:48. | |
more than Labour, which possibly they are, meanwhile instructing | :03:49. | :03:53. | |
their MEPs to vote against moves in Europe, to try to get a proper | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
European agreement on this, it will not work unless we get a European | :03:58. | :04:02. | |
agreement, and to find out that the Government says one thing speaking | :04:03. | :04:05. | |
here but secretly in the European Parliament does something else. | :04:06. | :04:11. | |
There are a lot of legs on this. A lot of trouble for the Conservative | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
Party because it plays to their weakness, sick -- just a security | :04:16. | :04:19. | |
and defence place to be Labour weakness. They are in bed with the | :04:20. | :04:23. | |
big corporations. Do you think they are in bed with them? Politicians | :04:24. | :04:30. | |
love meeting cutting edge companies. They do not spend that much time | :04:31. | :04:36. | |
with steel companies. It is a bit of a stretch to then think that they | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
were ever doing anything about Google's tax returns. I think it is | :04:42. | :04:47. | |
quite a stretch. The Google top executive right at the heart of | :04:48. | :04:50. | |
Downing Street, just as Andy Coulson from the Murdoch empire was right at | :04:51. | :04:56. | |
the heart of Downing Street. You have got Seamus Milne at the heart | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
of the Corbyn Empire. There is quite a difference! It is ironic, the | :05:02. | :05:12. | |
International rules were meant to be cleaned up. They were meant to have | :05:13. | :05:16. | |
done something about the double Irish and Dutch sandwich. I speak in | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
tongues because that is how you have to do it these days. Unless there is | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
a major radical change, I would suggest, if they carry on the | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
current way, it will be another ten years before there are further | :05:33. | :05:37. | |
changes? Yass and not only were the international rules meant to have | :05:38. | :05:42. | |
been cleared up, George Osborne talked about how reprehensible | :05:43. | :05:48. | |
aggressive tax avoidance is. Then last week he said the deal with | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
Google is a special deal. The problem with George Osborne is he | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
has forgotten the second part of Peter Mandelson's famous sentence | :05:58. | :06:00. | |
about being relaxed about people getting rich... As long as they pay | :06:01. | :06:08. | |
their tax. The problem for George Osborne is that he sees everything | :06:09. | :06:13. | |
through a 2010 lens. This deal is much better than anything that | :06:14. | :06:16. | |
happened under new Labour. That is six years ago. We have moved on. | :06:17. | :06:23. | |
People are now judging this government on what they have done. | :06:24. | :06:28. | |
It has been a long slow burning campaign. The tax Justice campaign | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
has been brilliant. UK uncut Ren fantastic demonstrations against top | :06:34. | :06:40. | |
shop, Vodafone, boots, people avoiding their taxes in elaborate | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
ways. Witty campaigns the public saw. I think it is at the centre of | :06:45. | :06:52. | |
it now. With other cases coming up, Apple and Amazon, Vodafone always in | :06:53. | :07:01. | |
the frame... Just finally, I thought it was fascinating that Peter Borren | :07:02. | :07:05. | |
of Google explained in effect that the money made in Britain and other | :07:06. | :07:10. | |
places is then sent to Bermuda, essentially warehoused in Bermuda. | :07:11. | :07:18. | |
It is a tax haven. If they repatriated back to California | :07:19. | :07:21. | |
headquarters, they would pay corporation tax in America and they | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
think that is too high. America corporate tax is run about 40%. | :07:27. | :07:33. | |
Apple has about 200 billion US dollars in cash reserves | :07:34. | :07:36. | |
internationally. Let's move on to the referendum. I got the impression | :07:37. | :07:41. | |
from listening to John McDonnell and other Labour shadow ministers I have | :07:42. | :07:46. | |
interviewed that there is no appetite on the Labour front bench | :07:47. | :07:49. | |
to delay this referendum. I think they would like to get on with it? S | :07:50. | :07:55. | |
they want to get on with it, then wanted to succeed. They want the yes | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
campaign to win. At the moment Labour is not doing very well with | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
it. It ought to be a great hallmark for them. Labour is almost | :08:03. | :08:10. | |
unequivocally pro-EU. They should be making a lot of capital against | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
every split Tory party and they are not, really. It is not clear why. | :08:15. | :08:21. | |
Maybe their hearts are not in it. It is led by two people who voted to | :08:22. | :08:28. | |
come out into -- 19 75. Alan Johnson woman who is leading the campaign, | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
does not appear to be making much headway. Maybe they are waiting | :08:32. | :08:34. | |
until Cameron comes back with a package. I think they are missing a | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
trick. The Eurosceptics want more time. They fear if it is rushed, | :08:40. | :08:46. | |
they will definitely lose. But for a June referendum in the Commons, it | :08:47. | :08:54. | |
would need Labour as well. It is clearly not going to happen. The | :08:55. | :08:57. | |
only thing that could stop it, because the numbers are now not in | :08:58. | :09:02. | |
the Commons, is if the electoral commission, bearing in mind you have | :09:03. | :09:05. | |
the leaders of the three devolved administrations saying they're not | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
happy, that is the only thing that could potentially stop it. Now that | :09:10. | :09:13. | |
the Labour Party is saying we should get on with it, it looks like that | :09:14. | :09:18. | |
will happen. People like Steve Baker needs to be careful. They have been | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
saying for 20 years we need a referendum. Here it is coming down | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
the stream and they say, we are not sure about it. That potentially | :09:27. | :09:28. | |
shows they are nervous about the case. One of the most telling thing | :09:29. | :09:35. | |
is Steve Baker said was the number of Tory MPs who would vote to leave | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
would be no more than 70, which is clearly expectations management on | :09:42. | :09:44. | |
his party that's my part. What you have seen in the past 72 hours is | :09:45. | :09:49. | |
expectations management on all sides. Downing Street is dampening | :09:50. | :09:59. | |
down expectations. We are all massively impressed. I hope you are | :10:00. | :10:05. | |
right that he is that clever. What worries me is that he has been | :10:06. | :10:08. | |
reckless. He has put things out there that he could never get. He | :10:09. | :10:17. | |
has not put everybody square. If not clever, certainly cynical. Steve | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
Baker and the sceptics are playing down their expected numbers, even | :10:22. | :10:28. | |
Cabinet ministers. The area where George Osborne thinks he will make | :10:29. | :10:31. | |
the most fundamental and important changes as the exceptions for those | :10:32. | :10:39. | |
countries not in the eurozone. That gets very little coverage. George | :10:40. | :10:42. | |
Osborne says that is the most important thing we could get because | :10:43. | :10:46. | |
it will play for decades to come. The territory they are fighting on | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
is the area where they are quite weak, benefits reform. We will have | :10:51. | :10:56. | |
another referendum in 2021 when treaty change takes place and the | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
eurozone becomes a proper monetary union. I don't think anybody is go | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
to do a treaty change for a long time. The mood across Europe, | :11:06. | :11:09. | |
particularly about immigration and refugee is, I think nobody will want | :11:10. | :11:16. | |
a treaty. It is all talk. I do not see it. I don't think anybody will | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
trust their own electorate sufficiently at any particular | :11:22. | :11:24. | |
point. They will look at hours with great interest. And they will say, | :11:25. | :11:33. | |
don't go there. Before we go, a sad morning today. We learned that | :11:34. | :11:36. | |
veteran broadcaster Terry Wogan has died at the age of 77 after a short | :11:37. | :11:42. | |
battle with cancer. Over his many years in broadcasting, he | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
interviewed a great number of people, including politicians. He | :11:46. | :11:47. | |
really is talking to Margaret Thatcher. | :11:48. | :11:53. | |
What do the next ten years hold for us and for our Prime Minister? | :11:54. | :12:03. | |
Mrs Margaret Thatcher. You ever apprehensive? Are you ever nervous | :12:04. | :12:10. | |
before you get up and speak? Always. And you would not speak well if you | :12:11. | :12:14. | |
were not. I have been answering questions in the House every Tuesday | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
and Thursday for ten years. And I am still just as nervous as I was at | :12:20. | :12:24. | |
the beginning. It requires immense preparation. You have seen your | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
share of trouble and strife and success. What have been your worst | :12:30. | :12:36. | |
moments? The worst moment on totally was when the Argentinians invaded | :12:37. | :12:39. | |
the Falkland Islands. I will never forget it. With the worries and some | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
of the terrible problems you have had, do you have any time for | :12:45. | :12:52. | |
personal worries? We have been very lucky. You know Dennis very well. | :12:53. | :12:58. | |
You both belong to Lord's Tavern is. Everyone knows Dennis. He is | :12:59. | :13:05. | |
marvellous! Why did your audience laugh when you mentioned him? He is | :13:06. | :13:11. | |
held in great affection by everyone because he has the tremendous knack | :13:12. | :13:13. | |
for saying things people would love to say but they're not. | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
Terry Wogan, one of the most accomplished and professional, | :13:19. | :13:20. | |
charming broadcasters in modern times. Sadly died this morning. We | :13:21. | :13:26. | |
learn from his family. Terry Wogan. That is it for today. I thank all of | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
my guests. The daily politics will be on BBC Two from noon tomorrow and | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
every day next week, including Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday. I | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
am back your macro same time, same place next week. We will know more | :13:41. | :13:43. | |
about the American election campaign by them. If it is Sunday, it is the | :13:44. | :13:46. | |
Sunday Politics. | :13:47. | :13:52. |