Browse content similar to 13/03/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics. | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
begins a new drive urging Scots to support what she calls | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
"the beautiful dream" of independence. | :00:43. | :00:46. | |
Tough talk from George Osborne ahead of his Budget on Wednesday. | :00:47. | :00:51. | |
The Chancellor wants us to live within our means. | :00:52. | :00:53. | |
Fighting talk too, from the man in his shadow. | :00:54. | :00:56. | |
John McDonnell wants to revive Labour's economic credibility. | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
And does Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party have a problem | :01:00. | :01:05. | |
Labour students at Oxford are already being investigated | :01:06. | :01:09. | |
Later in the programme: university will also face scrutiny. | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
Next week Assembly Members and the Senedd shut up shop | :01:14. | :01:16. | |
We ask, has the government delivered on its promises? | :01:17. | :01:31. | |
And with me three Fleet Street journos, living the dream. | :01:32. | :01:34. | |
Nick Watt, Julia Harley-Brewer and Tim Shipman. | :01:35. | :01:40. | |
For the rest of us, it is a bit of a nightmare! | :01:41. | :01:45. | |
So, four months ago, George Osborne sounded upbeat | :01:46. | :01:47. | |
Writing in the Sun on Sunday, ahead of Wednesday's Budget, | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
the Chancellor says the world is facing its most uncertain period | :01:53. | :01:54. | |
He says Britain has to act now, rather than pay later, | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
Let's listen to the Chancellor on the Marr Show a little earlier. | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
I think the world is a much more difficult and dangerous place. | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
My message in this Budget is that the world is a more | :02:07. | :02:09. | |
uncertain place than at any time since the financial crisis. | :02:10. | :02:12. | |
We need to act now so we don't pay later. | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
That is why we need to find additional savings, | :02:17. | :02:21. | |
equivalent to 50p in every ?100 the Government spends by the end | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
We have got to live within our means to stay secure. | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
That is the way we make Britain fit for the future. | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
That was the Chancellor earlier this morning. What did we learn? He is | :02:34. | :02:39. | |
preparing the ground for a very difficult budget. Why is he talking | :02:40. | :02:44. | |
about the difficult global economic circumstances? We have a significant | :02:45. | :02:49. | |
slowdown in China but it helps him in the EU referendum campaign. Why | :02:50. | :02:55. | |
risk leaving the EU when it is difficult economic circumstances? It | :02:56. | :02:58. | |
helps him with a budget. You need to expend why he was talking in the | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
July budget, the Autumn Statement, targeting a 10 billion budget | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
surplus by 2020 and now he will be talking back calories and ?18 | :03:08. | :03:13. | |
billion hole in the size of the economy. Will he be able to meet | :03:14. | :03:21. | |
that surplus? He needs an alibi for that. All the global headwinds, | :03:22. | :03:26. | |
problems in the emerging markets, the slowdown in China, the Eurozone | :03:27. | :03:29. | |
struggling to be overwhelmed. We knew that back in July. Nothing has | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
changed. The thing about George Osborne is he is a politician. It is | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
always about politics. It is not ideal, coming into local elections, | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
London mayoral elections, to be giving a load of cuts to public | :03:44. | :03:49. | |
services and possibly tax rises. The reality is he is always looking at | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
the long game and he does always play a brilliant politicians long | :03:54. | :03:59. | |
game. He is looking to 2020 and does not care. He also plays a bad shot | :04:00. | :04:05. | |
game. Will it be a difficult budget or will it be a steady issues | :04:06. | :04:11. | |
budget? What is striking about back in this morning, at least half of it | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
was about the European Union and not the budget. The rest of it was about | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
the Tory leadership and him taking potshots at Boris Johnson. The | :04:22. | :04:24. | |
subtext of this budget is it has been a difficult and dangerous time | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
for George Osborne and his teacher. He sat there and said, I am not | :04:29. | :04:34. | |
going to sit in this chair and mumble away. Who could he be talking | :04:35. | :04:40. | |
about there? We were told week ago that the subtext of the budget would | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
be the dangers of Brexit and the Tory leadership. It is not the | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
subtext, it is the text. There is hardly anything in it in terms of | :04:49. | :04:57. | |
big stuff. Steady as she goes. Can we just have another shout out for | :04:58. | :05:00. | |
the brilliant headline, genius political strategist clears up mess | :05:01. | :05:07. | |
made by genius political strategist. He may be nursing a little rabbit to | :05:08. | :05:10. | |
surprise as always! Now, if a certain referendum had | :05:11. | :05:15. | |
gone a bit differently, Scotland, would be an independent | :05:16. | :05:18. | |
country in just over ten days' time. Those wanting to leave the UK didn't | :05:19. | :05:20. | |
win that argument in 2014 but that hasn't dented the fortunes | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
of the SNP, who are riding high It's the party's Spring Conference | :05:26. | :05:28. | |
in Glasgow this weekend, and we're joined now | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
from there by the First Minister Good morning. A pleasure to be with | :05:32. | :05:41. | |
you, Andrew. Had the referendum gone your way, we would be ten days from | :05:42. | :05:48. | |
independents. You will be taking a massive and unsustainable ?15 | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
billion budget deficit, 10% of Scottish GDP. What would you be | :05:54. | :05:56. | |
doing to get that down? We would deal with it in the same way the UK | :05:57. | :06:04. | |
dealt with its deficit in 2009/ when they had 2.2% of the GDP. -- 2009/ | :06:05. | :06:13. | |
2010. They will be building on the underlying fundamental strengths of | :06:14. | :06:17. | |
the Scottish economy. Our this goal position has been broadly similar to | :06:18. | :06:21. | |
the rest of the UK and, in some years, better than the rest of the | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
UK. Onshore revenues are growing at a faster rate than the fall in | :06:26. | :06:30. | |
offshore revenues. We have higher employment and faster productivity | :06:31. | :06:33. | |
growth. The economy is fundamentally strong and that would have been a | :06:34. | :06:36. | |
very good basis on which to become an independent country. Did you not | :06:37. | :06:43. | |
oppose most efforts of the British government to get the deficit down? | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
I opposed many measures that George Osborne has taken. I do not say we | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
should not try to get the deficit down. I have opposed and continue to | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
oppose the speed at which it is happening in the way in which it is | :06:56. | :06:59. | |
happening but no one would deny that countries want to get their fiscal | :07:00. | :07:03. | |
positions into a more stable condition and the UK is in right | :07:04. | :07:07. | |
now. The point I'm making is the Scottish economy is fundamentally | :07:08. | :07:14. | |
strong economy. Much of what I have said illustrates that point. Let's | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
look at some of the things you have said. You have said most countries | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
have deficits. Can you name another at Fat economy 80s after the | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
financial crash that has a budget deficit of 10% of GDP. You do not | :07:26. | :07:35. | |
look at just one year full if I go back to that -- two 2008, 2009, it | :07:36. | :07:42. | |
was double that of Scotland. Our this goal position has been stronger | :07:43. | :07:45. | |
but is not right now because of the particular issues. Is it not the | :07:46. | :07:51. | |
case that Scotland's deficit now is the highest in the European Union? | :07:52. | :07:57. | |
That is true, isn't it? In the year we had figures published in this | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
past week, we have a very difficult and challenging set of figures. It | :08:03. | :08:09. | |
is the highest. No country, whether the UK, Scotland or another EU | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
country, makes judgments about that this good strength of that country | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
on the strength of one year's goes. The point I am making is over the | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
past ten years, our fiscal position has been broadly similar to the UK | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
and coming summer beiges, has been significantly better. If you project | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
forward to the next five years, the future is much more important than | :08:31. | :08:34. | |
the past, onshore revenues are likely to Bath the outstrip the | :08:35. | :08:40. | |
decline in offshore revenues. -- basked in the outstrip. The North | :08:41. | :08:45. | |
Sea contains difficulties for those working in the North Sea and | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
economies on the North East of Scotland. The economy of Scotland is | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
fundamentally strong. Let's look at more than one year. You have said it | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
is a snapshot. Without oil revenues, and there are no oil revenues now, | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
without the revenues, Scotland has run a persistent budget deficit of | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
over 10% every year for 13 years. You have a systemic deficit problem. | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
Why should you not look at oil revenues? Oil revenues are there and | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
have been contributing to the Treasury to the tune of ?300 | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
billion. They are not there now. Without them you have run a | :09:26. | :09:31. | |
persistent budget deficit and have done for 13 years. I accept it is | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
the future that matters more than the past. If you look at the | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
projections for the next five years, our onshore revenues, remember more | :09:41. | :09:43. | |
than 90% of the Scottish economy comes from onshore and not offshore. | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
If you look five years ahead, onshore revenues are projected to | :09:49. | :09:53. | |
grow in the region of ?14 billion. That is many times before in | :09:54. | :10:01. | |
offshore revenues in that period. I am not denying the challenge of | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
North Sea and other countries. Norway is facing exactly the same | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
challenge. Because they are better prepared for it and have Stuart did | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
oil resources better, Norway, in the last couple of weeks true down on | :10:14. | :10:19. | |
its massive oil fund. The powers that independence would have given | :10:20. | :10:26. | |
as and we did not vote yes, we have had -- we would have had ability to | :10:27. | :10:34. | |
draw down on that faster. Why are onshore revenues growing less | :10:35. | :10:36. | |
strongly in Scotland than the rest of the UK? That is a long-standing | :10:37. | :10:45. | |
issue. One issue at the heart of that is growth in the heart of | :10:46. | :10:49. | |
London. We are seeing a narrowing in some of the long-standing gap there | :10:50. | :10:53. | |
has been between aspects of the Scottish economy and the UK economy. | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
If we take productivity, for a long time Scotland lags significantly | :10:59. | :11:01. | |
behind the rest of the UK. Over the past years we have close that gap is | :11:02. | :11:08. | |
it that can leave. We still lag behind our European competitors and | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
that is a problem. I am not standing here denying the challenges that the | :11:13. | :11:16. | |
Scottish economy has. In the same way you have been talking about the | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
Chancellor's budget and the same way the UK economy has challenges and | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
across the European Union, they have challenges. There are real strength | :11:26. | :11:29. | |
is in the Scottish economy. The real question should be how we build on | :11:30. | :11:36. | |
and accents are the big strengths. Revenues per person in Scotland | :11:37. | :11:43. | |
where ?10,700 in the years 2011, 20 12. They are now ?10,000, 700 ( even | :11:44. | :11:49. | |
with the growth in revenues. The offshore has offset that. We still | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
have a fundamental deficit problem. I am not denying we have a deficit. | :11:55. | :12:03. | |
The UK has a deficit. Take revenues per head of population, which is | :12:04. | :12:07. | |
what you decided to me there. In the most recent year, our revenues per | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
head of population are broadly similar to the UK. In every one of | :12:12. | :12:18. | |
the past 35 years, revenues per head of population have been higher than | :12:19. | :12:21. | |
the rest of the UK. I accept we have a challenge in the North Sea. I | :12:22. | :12:27. | |
accept that like all oil-producing countries, we have challenges about | :12:28. | :12:30. | |
how we transition away from oil and gas over the years to come, though | :12:31. | :12:34. | |
there is a great deal of attention in the North Sea. These are | :12:35. | :12:37. | |
challenges we should embrace and challenges we should be working out | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
how we face up to and address. Scotland is doing that and we'll do | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
that on the basis of fundamental strengths in our economy. -- will do | :12:46. | :12:52. | |
that. Scotland pays per capita about the same as the UK average. I am | :12:53. | :13:00. | |
talking about the current year. What I am saying is, you cannot judge the | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
economy in one year. It is similar in one year in 34 of the past 35 | :13:06. | :13:09. | |
years and has been higher. That is the point I am making. The reason | :13:10. | :13:16. | |
you are running a deficit, per capita spending is so much higher | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
than in Scotland it is ?1400 higher public spending per person. | :13:22. | :13:26. | |
Westminster that is that build it is the difference between tax revenues | :13:27. | :13:33. | |
and what you spend. -- fits that bill. It is a deficit. The UK is in | :13:34. | :13:40. | |
deficit in Scotland is in deficit. It is twice as big! In 2008, 2009, | :13:41. | :13:48. | |
the UK deficit was twice as big as Scotland it will vary from year to | :13:49. | :13:52. | |
year. In terms of the point about per capita spending, there are very | :13:53. | :13:58. | |
good reasons why someone who knows Scotland well, we have a country | :13:59. | :14:01. | |
where one in five of the population lives in a row and remote community. | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
I was Health Secretary for five years. It cost more to deliver | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
health services on an island or rural community than it does in | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
Glasgow. Westminster pays for that, it makes up the difference. If you | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
are independent you would either have to raise taxes or cut spending. | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
What would it be? By how much would you raise taxes and cut spending? We | :14:26. | :14:30. | |
set a budget in devolved Scotland every year. We make choices, | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
sometimes these are tough choices. If Scotland were independent, we | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
would do that as well. The point I am making, the economy of an | :14:39. | :14:41. | |
independent Scotland would face challenges like other economies do. | :14:42. | :14:45. | |
We're in a fundamentally strong position. Employment is higher than | :14:46. | :14:51. | |
any other UK nation. Productivity is growing faster. We have a number of | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
key strengths in the economy. One of the challenges is how we build on | :14:56. | :15:02. | |
these strengths and get our economy growing faster. We have a number of | :15:03. | :15:04. | |
world leading sectors in our economy. | :15:05. | :15:09. | |
The fact is your deficit was ?15 billion, moving with oil revenues at | :15:10. | :15:18. | |
2 billion last year. This year oil revenues are reckoned to be at zero | :15:19. | :15:21. | |
so your budget deficit would get even worse. Two cut your deficit to | :15:22. | :15:31. | |
anything like acceptable levels you would have to increase tax to 16% or | :15:32. | :15:38. | |
cut spending by 14% or a combination of the two, what would it be? We | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
would deal with the deficit in the same way the UK is dealing with the | :15:43. | :15:51. | |
deficit and dealt in the deficit -- with the deficit in 2009/ ten. We | :15:52. | :15:56. | |
would be in the same position as many other countries but we would be | :15:57. | :16:00. | |
in a position where we have got a fundamentally strong economy. I wish | :16:01. | :16:06. | |
Scotland have voted yes in 2014, if it had done we would have spent the | :16:07. | :16:11. | |
last almost two years preparing for Scotland becoming independent. In a | :16:12. | :16:18. | |
negotiation around independence, there would have been discussions | :16:19. | :16:24. | |
about assets, liability, the share of defence spending, so that's what | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
would have been the case if we voted for independence. Looking ahead, we | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
have a strong economy and the challenge is how we grow it even | :16:33. | :16:38. | |
faster. You accept surely that you wouldn't be allowed to join the | :16:39. | :16:42. | |
European Union with a 10% deficit, you would have to agree to Brussels | :16:43. | :16:48. | |
programme, correct? We are getting into some ridiculous territory here | :16:49. | :16:54. | |
and one of the most ridiculous arguments. Scotland wouldn't have | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
been out of the EU, we wouldn't have been in the position of an accession | :16:59. | :17:03. | |
state. It is a bit rich for anybody, given where we are right now, with | :17:04. | :17:07. | |
the prospect of being taken out of the EU ahead of us, for | :17:08. | :17:11. | |
scaremongering about the prospects of that. With two weeks to go until | :17:12. | :17:18. | |
independence, instead of increases in public spending which you | :17:19. | :17:23. | |
announced yesterday... They didn't vote yes. But if it had been, you | :17:24. | :17:29. | |
would have been looking at the list of hospitals and schools to close, | :17:30. | :17:32. | |
you would be the austerity party, that's what you would have to do. | :17:33. | :17:38. | |
That's ridiculous. Countries the world over have deficits and deal | :17:39. | :17:42. | |
with them. We would also have been taking on the greater powers to grow | :17:43. | :17:46. | |
our economy, particularly our own short economy. Italy and Greece had | :17:47. | :17:54. | |
10% deficit and you know the austerity they had to go through. I | :17:55. | :18:00. | |
think this argument starts to tip over into being incredible, we start | :18:01. | :18:04. | |
to compare Scotland, with all of the strength of the Scottish economy, to | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
countries like Greece and Italy. I have spoken about the fundamental | :18:09. | :18:12. | |
strengths of our economy, not least the fact we have had the longest | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
period of economic growth since the devolution. You have said all of | :18:17. | :18:23. | |
that. Yes, we have challenges, but Scotland has a strong economy. Then | :18:24. | :18:30. | |
why do your revenues like you're spending by ?2400 per person? -- lag | :18:31. | :18:41. | |
your spending. We have a deficit like many other countries... Nobody | :18:42. | :18:49. | |
has a deficit like Scotland's. We have a particular issue because of | :18:50. | :18:54. | |
the fall in North Sea revenues. It is an indictment of Westminster | :18:55. | :18:57. | |
mismanagement that unlike Norway, we don't have a massive oil fund to | :18:58. | :19:07. | |
help deal with that. Westminster is paying for your deficit, Westminster | :19:08. | :19:10. | |
is paying for the difference for the rest of the deficit, would you like | :19:11. | :19:14. | |
to thank the rest of the people of the United Kingdom for making up for | :19:15. | :19:19. | |
the deficit you have got? Westminster has a deficit of its | :19:20. | :19:25. | |
own, it is ?1 trillion in debt. That is not the deficit, that is the | :19:26. | :19:32. | |
debt. That is why I said debt, I understand the difference between | :19:33. | :19:35. | |
deficit and debt, but it has accumulated debt of ?1 trillion, it | :19:36. | :19:41. | |
has an annual deficit just like Scotland and many other countries | :19:42. | :19:45. | |
do. It is actually 1.5 trillion, even worse than you think. I was | :19:46. | :19:51. | |
being kind to them, Andrew! You should be kind because they are | :19:52. | :19:53. | |
saving you quite a bit of money! Does Labour have a problem dealing | :19:54. | :19:57. | |
with allegations of anti-semitism? The party is worried enough to have | :19:58. | :19:59. | |
established an inquiry into the Labour Club | :20:00. | :20:02. | |
at Oxford University where there are accusations that | :20:03. | :20:03. | |
members used off-colour language And the Sunday Politics has been | :20:04. | :20:06. | |
told that the investigation will look at new claims | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
from another university. It comes after an activist | :20:10. | :20:13. | |
with controversial views was allowed back into the party then promptly | :20:14. | :20:16. | |
chucked out again last week. Does Jeremy Corbyn's support | :20:17. | :20:18. | |
for causes like the Palestinians or Stop The War mean he's not tough | :20:19. | :20:23. | |
enough when there are allegations It's seen that way by some | :20:24. | :20:27. | |
students at Oxford. Last month the vice-chair | :20:28. | :20:30. | |
of the Labour club there resigned, claiming some members had a problem | :20:31. | :20:33. | |
with Jews and used words like Zio, a nickname for Jewish people that | :20:34. | :20:39. | |
many find offensive. It's now being investigated | :20:40. | :20:42. | |
by the Labour peer Baroness Royle, who is also looking at the wider | :20:43. | :20:45. | |
issue of behaviour in We understand she's now | :20:46. | :20:47. | |
extended her investigation to include students | :20:48. | :20:50. | |
at the London School of Economics. This week, they have been electing | :20:51. | :20:53. | |
a new general secretary One of the candidates, | :20:54. | :20:56. | |
Rayhan Uddin, who's also in the Labour group, | :20:57. | :21:03. | |
has been criticised for some Facebook posts that emerged | :21:04. | :21:05. | |
during the campaign. In one, he talked about leading | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
Zionists wanting to take over the student union to make it right | :21:10. | :21:12. | |
wing and Zio again. Facebook post: | :21:13. | :21:18. | |
of language, writing in another He has been referred to Labour's | :21:19. | :21:33. | |
investigation into student politics by someone | :21:34. | :21:35. | |
who now works for an MP. We've seen the letter they wrote, | :21:36. | :21:39. | |
which said: Because it was an older generation | :21:40. | :21:49. | |
of activists that came up at Prime Minister's | :21:50. | :21:58. | |
Questions this week. I was completely appalled to see | :21:59. | :22:00. | |
yesterday that the Labour Party has readmitted someone to their party | :22:01. | :22:03. | |
who says, and I believe that the 9/11 suicide bombers, | :22:04. | :22:07. | |
and I quote, must never be condemned and belongs to an organisation that | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
says "we defend the Islamic State He was referring to Gerry Downing, | :22:13. | :22:15. | |
who had also blogged about what he called | :22:16. | :22:21. | |
the Jewish question, after being readmitted to the party | :22:22. | :22:25. | |
this week he was resuspended. He reckons it's really a battle | :22:26. | :22:28. | |
between different wings in Labour. You've said there is a conspiracy | :22:29. | :22:31. | |
of people out to get Jeremy Corbyn, Well, Dan Jarvis and these people | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
of course, obviously there's the whole Blairite wing of the party | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
and others, who have been absolutely disgusted at the membership | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
and the left-wing surge in the membership and can't | :22:46. | :22:48. | |
believe what happened. And do you think they are using race | :22:49. | :23:00. | |
and religion as a tool for that? Whereas the Labour MP Wes Streeting | :23:01. | :23:04. | |
says there is a problem I think in certain parts | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
of the British left, there has always been a virulent | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
form of pretty bigoted politics, particularly in terms | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
of anti-Semitism, which has been an issue in some of our university | :23:16. | :23:22. | |
campuses There's also a mentality | :23:23. | :23:24. | |
which I think has been epitomised by the repulsive use of Mr Downing, | :23:25. | :23:30. | |
which is not so much Stop The War People who seem to hate | :23:31. | :23:33. | |
their country more than they hate And we have got to start sending | :23:34. | :23:38. | |
a far stronger message that this is simply not acceptable | :23:39. | :23:44. | |
in the modern Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn's supporters, | :23:45. | :23:48. | |
like those in the grass roots campaign group Momentum, | :23:49. | :23:50. | |
say none of this is fair on him. Corbyn comes under the most | :23:51. | :23:54. | |
incredible level of attacks and one of the things that he's attacked | :23:55. | :23:57. | |
for is his long-standing commitment to anti-war, anti-imperialism, | :23:58. | :24:00. | |
peace in the Middle East. And I think that's where some | :24:01. | :24:08. | |
of this comes from. He does absolutely condemn | :24:09. | :24:11. | |
anti-Semitism, he has time There is not a shred | :24:12. | :24:13. | |
of anti-Semitism in his personal make-up, in his moral make-up | :24:14. | :24:16. | |
or in his political make-up. And as for Labour's investigation | :24:17. | :24:21. | |
into anti-Semitism among students, there's no time frame | :24:22. | :24:23. | |
for when it will report. Let's speak now to the Labour MP, | :24:24. | :24:30. | |
John Mann, who's chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group | :24:31. | :24:36. | |
against Anti-Semitism. He's in Berlin at an | :24:37. | :24:41. | |
Anti-Semitism Conference. Is there an anti-Semitism problem in | :24:42. | :24:51. | |
the Labour Party? Of course, that's why these issues have got attention. | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
It is not a big problem, but a small problem when it comes to racism | :24:57. | :25:02. | |
needs to be dealt with. We have been here before. I can recall 30 years | :25:03. | :25:08. | |
ago when there were extremists trying to ban Jewish societies in | :25:09. | :25:13. | |
some of the universities, and we clamped down on them very hard then | :25:14. | :25:16. | |
and they weren't in the Labour Party but it is the same kind of people, | :25:17. | :25:22. | |
the same ideology. Some of that has crept into the Labour Party and it | :25:23. | :25:26. | |
needs to be removed. Why has it come back? People could write big | :25:27. | :25:34. | |
academic books on why it has re-surged but what we have seen in | :25:35. | :25:39. | |
history is that anti-Semitism never seems to go away. But why in the | :25:40. | :25:45. | |
Labour Party has come back? People have obviously chosen to dissociate | :25:46. | :25:48. | |
with the Labour Party in the growth of membership, some of those people | :25:49. | :25:52. | |
have attitudes that are very outdated and prejudiced. There is no | :25:53. | :25:59. | |
space for them in the Labour Party and the reason that is important is | :26:00. | :26:04. | |
because I am getting young Jewish activists posturing whether the | :26:05. | :26:06. | |
Labour Party is the place for them in terms of their support, their | :26:07. | :26:12. | |
vote and their activity, and we cannot tolerate a situation where | :26:13. | :26:20. | |
any part of society doesn't feel that a major political party like | :26:21. | :26:24. | |
the Labour Party is not the place for them, which is why prompt | :26:25. | :26:28. | |
effective action and vigilance on this is required, including from | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
Jeremy as the leader of the Labour Party. Is the Labour leader doing | :26:33. | :26:39. | |
enough? Or the fact he has talked about his friends, Hamas, Hezbollah, | :26:40. | :26:45. | |
and shared platforms with people who have been very hostile to Israel and | :26:46. | :26:52. | |
so on, is that a disadvantage? Is it encouraging anti-Semitism or is it | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
not relevant? I have met Jeremy recently to discuss anti-Semitism in | :26:57. | :27:00. | |
the Labour Party and it is clear to me that he does not tolerate or | :27:01. | :27:06. | |
support it but what he has to do is follow that free with actions and | :27:07. | :27:11. | |
ensure that others in the Labour Party follow it through with actions | :27:12. | :27:16. | |
because the kind of thing, the atmosphere that is being created in | :27:17. | :27:21. | |
Oxford University is not a one-off. This has been happening elsewhere as | :27:22. | :27:26. | |
well. While these can be seen as small incidents, if you are the | :27:27. | :27:30. | |
young Jewish person who is impacted by it, it is not small for you and | :27:31. | :27:38. | |
it is magnified in the universities, which are pretty tolerant places and | :27:39. | :27:43. | |
rightly so, if there is in tolerance to any particular group and to | :27:44. | :27:47. | |
Jewish students. We are not prepared to have that in the Labour Party, | :27:48. | :27:51. | |
there has got to be action, it has got to be led from the front and it | :27:52. | :27:55. | |
has got to be decisive action. There is no space for these people in the | :27:56. | :28:02. | |
Labour Party or is there space for people in any way excusing their | :28:03. | :28:07. | |
actions. But there is an inquiry into what has been going on at | :28:08. | :28:13. | |
Oxford, but is your party doing enough about this? Because I | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
understand these inquiries may be subsumed into a much bigger inquiry | :28:18. | :28:21. | |
into bullying and so on. What is your feeling? It is action by | :28:22. | :28:28. | |
results. If there is a decisive action, there will be an almighty | :28:29. | :28:31. | |
row which wouldn't be helpful but the idea that those of us who fought | :28:32. | :28:39. | |
over decades, challenging anti-Semitism and other forms of | :28:40. | :28:44. | |
racism, are going to accept other than the highest of standards in our | :28:45. | :28:48. | |
own party, well I can tell you it is going to happen. There are many of | :28:49. | :28:56. | |
us who will only accept absolutely the highest standards. We are not | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
prepared to tolerate any form of anti-Semitism or any excuse for it | :29:01. | :29:05. | |
in the Labour Party or anywhere else in society. But in our own party | :29:06. | :29:10. | |
absolutely not and therefore there has got to be action, words are not | :29:11. | :29:14. | |
good enough. Historically the Labour Party has done well from the Jewish | :29:15. | :29:20. | |
vote. The Jewish vote over time has tended to vote Labour. If this | :29:21. | :29:24. | |
anti-Semitism continues in your party, are you in danger of losing | :29:25. | :29:31. | |
the Jewish vote? We prepared a report ten years ago on a | :29:32. | :29:35. | |
cross-party basis that highlighted anti-Semitism in all of its aspects | :29:36. | :29:39. | |
including from the right but also what was described by some as the | :29:40. | :29:43. | |
new anti-Semitism on the left. It is not new but it had been dormant for | :29:44. | :29:48. | |
a long period of time. People have been accustomed to the Labour Party | :29:49. | :29:52. | |
and that part of the left being highly tolerant to everybody. That | :29:53. | :30:00. | |
has got to happen, you cannot have a progressive party of any substance | :30:01. | :30:03. | |
in politics if it allows any form of intolerance and therefore we are not | :30:04. | :30:08. | |
prepared to have second-class citizens, second-class form of | :30:09. | :30:13. | |
racism allowed in the Labour Party. Anti-Semitism has got to be | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
challenged, including anti-Semitism on the left, and so robustly and put | :30:18. | :30:24. | |
back in the dustbin again. That is my intention in the Labour Party. I | :30:25. | :30:32. | |
am looking forward to Jeremy and the National Executive being decisive, | :30:33. | :30:36. | |
removing the anti-Semites, going into where there is intolerance and | :30:37. | :30:39. | |
explaining what is anti-Semitism and why we are not prepared to have it | :30:40. | :30:45. | |
in our party. Thanks for joining us this morning. | :30:46. | :30:48. | |
Labour's Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell ran Jeremy Corbyn's | :30:49. | :30:50. | |
leadership campaign on a platform fighting not just austerity, | :30:51. | :30:52. | |
Now though, he wants to be the new voice of fiscal | :30:53. | :30:55. | |
responsibility, and says he's going to re-write | :30:56. | :30:57. | |
In a moment we'll be talking to John McDonnell's number two, | :30:58. | :31:01. | |
the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. | :31:02. | :31:02. | |
But first let's hear what Mr McDonnell had to say | :31:03. | :31:05. | |
It is a wider ambition then just Labour's fiscal credibility. | :31:06. | :31:08. | |
I want to try to restore credibility to economic policy-making generally, | :31:09. | :31:11. | |
not just within the Labour Party but across politics too. | :31:12. | :31:14. | |
We have had too long, for example, the last six | :31:15. | :31:16. | |
years we have had fiscal rules which have not been met, | :31:17. | :31:19. | |
I am trying to encourage a better economic debate. | :31:20. | :31:24. | |
What I have said is quite clearly, when we go back into government, | :31:25. | :31:27. | |
we will eliminate the deficit, reduce debt, and will | :31:28. | :31:31. | |
ensure that is supervised independently by the Office | :31:32. | :31:33. | |
And Labour's Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Seema Malhotra, | :31:34. | :31:40. | |
Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You would balance current spending with | :31:41. | :31:53. | |
revenue and borrow to invest. How does that differ from Mr Brown and | :31:54. | :31:58. | |
Mr balls? You are right about there being two key parts to the new | :31:59. | :32:03. | |
fiscal credibility were all. In a sense, this builds on very much | :32:04. | :32:07. | |
where we have been before. It also responds to the criticisms that were | :32:08. | :32:14. | |
made of Jaws -- George Osborne's this school charter where he was | :32:15. | :32:18. | |
criticised for tying his own hands and not allowing for investment. -- | :32:19. | :32:23. | |
fiscal charter. There are two key differences. It makes it more | :32:24. | :32:28. | |
explicit, that there should be independent voices. We have said we | :32:29. | :32:32. | |
want the OBR to be an independent voice around deficit reduction | :32:33. | :32:36. | |
targets, and also reporting directly to Parliament. The second area is | :32:37. | :32:43. | |
that we want to make sure there is the opportunity for investment and | :32:44. | :32:47. | |
also, if there are difficult times, like we had in 2009, when monetary | :32:48. | :32:53. | |
policy does not seem to be working, it gives an opportunity for fiscal | :32:54. | :32:58. | |
policy to work alongside. It builds on but has two key differences. Mr | :32:59. | :33:03. | |
Brown defended his rules as well when times got bad. It was described | :33:04. | :33:17. | |
as being austerity light. This must be as well? It has been developed | :33:18. | :33:24. | |
and the reason... It is not about austerity. It is a framework that | :33:25. | :33:27. | |
will allow us to make spending and tax decisions in the future. It | :33:28. | :33:33. | |
responds to the criticisms, the universal criticisms of George | :33:34. | :33:39. | |
Osborne's this dull charter. -- fiscal charter. It says we need to | :33:40. | :33:46. | |
invest for the future. I understand all that. Mr Brown and Mr Balls also | :33:47. | :33:51. | |
wanted to invest and that was criticised by the Shadow Chancellor | :33:52. | :33:57. | |
as austerity light. If that were austerity light, this is steroid to | :33:58. | :34:05. | |
-- night as well. We're in a situation where George Osborne is | :34:06. | :34:14. | |
blaming everyone but himself. -- this is austerity light as well. | :34:15. | :34:22. | |
George Osborne's Member of Parliament for the Tory Party has | :34:23. | :34:27. | |
said, what we have seen our warm words. He has talked about | :34:28. | :34:30. | |
investment and an export led strategy. This is built on debts, | :34:31. | :34:38. | |
household debt. How much is public investment? Around 30 billion, if | :34:39. | :34:45. | |
you take into account the difference in spending. It is 34 billion in | :34:46. | :34:50. | |
public spending at the moment. It should be much higher. How much more | :34:51. | :34:56. | |
should it be? It should be higher. There is no excuse for what George | :34:57. | :35:01. | |
Osborne has done. I am not asking about Mr Osborne. I am asking about | :35:02. | :35:07. | |
your policy. 34 billion at the moment, rising to 40 billion by 20 | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
20. How much more would it be? It focuses on where it needs to be | :35:13. | :35:23. | |
regarding GDP. You need to have a good level of investment so you are | :35:24. | :35:28. | |
creating jobs for the future. What I am trying to work out is what this | :35:29. | :35:34. | |
means in hard cash for investment, how big would investment be under a | :35:35. | :35:38. | |
Labour government? It is clear that George Osborne has been cutting | :35:39. | :35:45. | |
investment. It was around 3%, 3.5%, and is now 1.4% in terms of | :35:46. | :35:49. | |
infrastructure. If you want jobs of the future coming through, if you | :35:50. | :35:55. | |
want to turn around the situation where young people... By how much | :35:56. | :35:58. | |
more would public investment increase under this formula? What we | :35:59. | :36:02. | |
have said is you need to make sure that we have a balance of where the | :36:03. | :36:06. | |
economy needs investment so we can get tax receipts and growth for the | :36:07. | :36:11. | |
future. We had economists saying that George Osborne, if you talk | :36:12. | :36:15. | |
about fairness in the future... I am here to talk about the labour policy | :36:16. | :36:21. | |
and not that of George Osborne. Nor has there been balanced growth. If | :36:22. | :36:25. | |
you want a balanced budget, you need to balance growth. Let's talk about | :36:26. | :36:34. | |
labour. John McDonnell has talked about the difference between | :36:35. | :36:37. | |
short-term and long-term investment. What is the difference? What we have | :36:38. | :36:41. | |
said as she want to see investment that will see us having a big stake | :36:42. | :36:45. | |
in the future. If you want to look at energy investment, you are | :36:46. | :36:55. | |
talking out about -- about 20, 30 years. It is about supporting | :36:56. | :37:02. | |
companies, entrepreneurs and supporting the long-term growth for | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
the country as well. If you're talking about rail, roads and | :37:07. | :37:09. | |
infrastructure, you will be aware, I am sure, of the reports that showed | :37:10. | :37:16. | |
recently we have fewer buses than 2010, our rolling stock and trains | :37:17. | :37:19. | |
are in poor condition, people are taking longer to get to work and the | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
trains are more crowded. That should be a wake-up call to George Osborne | :37:26. | :37:29. | |
he is not working in the interests of the British public and people are | :37:30. | :37:33. | |
asking if the decisions are based on political interest and not on the | :37:34. | :37:41. | |
country's future. You would balance current spending, day-to-day | :37:42. | :37:43. | |
spending. At the moment there is a deficit. What would you cut to | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
balance current spending? There are two things. The first is about | :37:50. | :37:53. | |
spending decisions and the second about tax receipts. We are arguing | :37:54. | :37:58. | |
that if you want to see tax receipts grow, George Osborne has seen them | :37:59. | :38:02. | |
for in regard to productivity growth. What would you cut? We would | :38:03. | :38:11. | |
want to see that growth increases in that you see an increase in tax | :38:12. | :38:16. | |
receipts. You cannot spend if it is not within your means. What would | :38:17. | :38:23. | |
you cut? You cannot spend if it is not within your means. What the | :38:24. | :38:25. | |
announcement from the Labour Party is about is how we earn our way in | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
the world and survived in a competitive economy. We will leave | :38:31. | :38:32. | |
it there. Thank you very much. It's just gone 11:35am, | :38:33. | :38:37. | |
you're watching the Sunday Politics. Hello and welcome to | :38:38. | :38:46. | |
the Sunday Politics Wales. Carwyn Jones says he's halfway | :38:47. | :38:49. | |
through a decade of delivery. But as the curtain falls | :38:50. | :38:53. | |
on the current Sssembly, And the Conservative leader in Wales | :38:54. | :38:57. | |
tells us why he cannot protect any spending apart from health | :38:58. | :39:01. | |
if he becomes First Minister. When politicians make promises, | :39:02. | :39:07. | |
we expect them to keep them, The First Minister has made | :39:08. | :39:10. | |
"delivery" a key word Indeed, he says he wants another | :39:11. | :39:14. | |
five years to complete what he calls Cemlyn Davies has been looking | :39:15. | :39:19. | |
at what was promised A reliable delivery service | :39:20. | :39:25. | |
is something we have come to expect. It is so easy these | :39:26. | :39:39. | |
days to get what we want And when we have been | :39:40. | :39:45. | |
promised that we will get something we assume it'll | :39:46. | :39:55. | |
be delivered on time Five years ago the First Minister | :39:56. | :39:56. | |
made that exact point in a speech to civil servants at | :39:57. | :40:02. | |
Welsh Government HQ. Delivery is going | :40:03. | :40:06. | |
to be the watchword. We want to make sure | :40:07. | :40:10. | |
that we deliver for Wales. To ensure that would be | :40:11. | :40:14. | |
the case, Carwyn Jones set up a delivery unit to monitor | :40:15. | :40:18. | |
the performance of Welsh Government Now, with another election | :40:19. | :40:20. | |
looming he and his ministers believe they have | :40:21. | :40:25. | |
delivered, fulfilling Welsh Labour's The Welsh Government | :40:26. | :40:28. | |
has created a young peoples It has also increased | :40:29. | :40:34. | |
school spending compared to the money it gets | :40:35. | :40:39. | |
from Westminster and doubles the number of young children | :40:40. | :40:42. | |
benefiting from the Flying Start Project, setup to help disadvantaged | :40:43. | :40:45. | |
families. The government has also funded | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
the employment of 500 extra Community Support Officers | :40:51. | :40:53. | |
and there is data to back up the claim access to GPs has | :40:54. | :40:57. | |
improved since 2011. Although opposition | :40:58. | :41:03. | |
parties dispute that. On the face of it, superficially, | :41:04. | :41:06. | |
you could say they have delivered. You have to ask how ambitious | :41:07. | :41:09. | |
they were in the first place. That manifesto was fashioned | :41:10. | :41:16. | |
at a time when the Labour Party knew that cuts were coming | :41:17. | :41:23. | |
through in the block grants and therefore the commitments they | :41:24. | :41:26. | |
made back in 2011 were cautious. There was nothing there | :41:27. | :41:31. | |
about what might be achieved in terms of outcomes, | :41:32. | :41:35. | |
about achieving strategic It was a narrowing of the criteria | :41:36. | :41:38. | |
on which they would And you think that was | :41:39. | :41:43. | |
completely deliberate? I think it was intelligent | :41:44. | :41:48. | |
if you like back in 2011. It allows Carwyn Jones | :41:49. | :41:53. | |
to say in interviews now, And Carwyn Jones is now hoping | :41:54. | :41:57. | |
for another term to finish In 2011, I promised a decade | :41:58. | :42:02. | |
of delivery, a ten year focus on the bread and butter issues that | :42:03. | :42:08. | |
matter to people's everyday lives. We are halfway through that decade | :42:09. | :42:13. | |
of delivery and we can't afford In the meantime, opposition parties | :42:14. | :42:16. | |
are unimpressed with the They point to longer | :42:17. | :42:25. | |
waiting times for treatment They also point out just two GP | :42:26. | :42:29. | |
surgeries across Wales offer Meanwhile, GCSE results | :42:30. | :42:34. | |
here continue to lag behind England and the latest stats show | :42:35. | :42:39. | |
economic growth in Wales Carwyn Jones' term in office has | :42:40. | :42:44. | |
been abject failure. He claims that Labour | :42:45. | :42:51. | |
is delivering, but what have his government actually | :42:52. | :42:55. | |
achieved beyond the disappointment The Welsh Government | :42:56. | :42:58. | |
was meant to understand Wales's needs better | :42:59. | :43:02. | |
than Whitehall bureaucrats Meant to deliver Welsh | :43:03. | :43:06. | |
solutions to our problems, The truth is that creating | :43:07. | :43:11. | |
the Welsh Government It has been more | :43:12. | :43:16. | |
like decades of decay. And so with polling | :43:17. | :43:24. | |
day less than two months away what can we expect | :43:25. | :43:32. | |
over the coming weeks? What is coming through very | :43:33. | :43:36. | |
clearly is that Labour have a clear strategy of how | :43:37. | :43:38. | |
they want to fight the election. It is a defensive election | :43:39. | :43:42. | |
for them but they have staked out a ground that | :43:43. | :43:44. | |
goes back five years, it started in that manifesto five | :43:45. | :43:47. | |
years ago, of a cautious set of objectives which they can say | :43:48. | :43:51. | |
they have delivered, they are delivering | :43:52. | :43:53. | |
competent government. The onus is on the other parties | :43:54. | :43:56. | |
to raise the level of debate and I'm not seeing them | :43:57. | :43:59. | |
doing it at the moment. But I think they need to go | :44:00. | :44:01. | |
above simply carping at Labour They need to project a bit | :44:02. | :44:09. | |
of vision, a bit of imagination into the whole way | :44:10. | :44:16. | |
the election is contested. Soon enough all the parties | :44:17. | :44:20. | |
will be showing us their menus and they will be | :44:21. | :44:22. | |
hoping their slice of Assembly seats after the election will give them | :44:23. | :44:26. | |
a chance to deliver their policies. So that's the story so far | :44:27. | :44:33. | |
from the Labour Government. But the main opposition in Wales, | :44:34. | :44:37. | |
the Conservatives have Their leader, Andrew R T Davies | :44:38. | :44:39. | |
wants to be the next First Minister, and told his party's conference | :44:40. | :44:44. | |
in Llangollen that this year But when it comes to his spending | :44:45. | :44:49. | |
plans the only guarantee he gives Beyond that he says we'll just | :44:50. | :44:55. | |
have to wait and see. He spoke to our political | :44:56. | :44:59. | |
editor, Nick Servini. Andrew RT Davies, welcome | :45:00. | :45:03. | |
to the Sunday Politics Wales. I want to start by | :45:04. | :45:05. | |
talking about the speech A lot of people I've spoken to have | :45:06. | :45:07. | |
read into it as something Not only did he barely mention | :45:08. | :45:13. | |
you, he spent most of the speech talking about how a withdrawal | :45:14. | :45:19. | |
from Europe would be disastrous for Welsh | :45:20. | :45:23. | |
farming. And you are a farmer of course. | :45:24. | :45:25. | |
You want us to leave. The Prime Minister came | :45:26. | :45:30. | |
here with the intention to promote the Assembly campaign | :45:31. | :45:33. | |
which is on May the 5th but also, there | :45:34. | :45:35. | |
is a referendum campaign That referendum campaign | :45:36. | :45:37. | |
is being fought across the whole He had two messages he needed | :45:38. | :45:42. | |
to deliver yesterday. The Prime Minister and myself | :45:43. | :45:45. | |
disagree on the European referendum question but that is why | :45:46. | :45:49. | |
we have a referendum. It is a big constitutional | :45:50. | :45:51. | |
question that every man and woman have a chance to vote | :45:52. | :45:54. | |
in over the age of 18. The key fact for us is the Assembly | :45:55. | :45:57. | |
election and whether we want to continue with more decline that | :45:58. | :46:01. | |
Labour has given us for the last 17 years or whether we want | :46:02. | :46:04. | |
to transform the Welsh economy. We want to reinvigorate the NHS | :46:05. | :46:07. | |
and deliver excellence in education. You must be disappointed, | :46:08. | :46:10. | |
though, he barely Together with a load of other people | :46:11. | :46:12. | |
right at the beginning. You want to be the First | :46:13. | :46:18. | |
Minister of Wales. speech conference after confidence | :46:19. | :46:20. | |
that is the way the Prime Minister's I can point you to a number | :46:21. | :46:25. | |
of speeches, it is the way he deals with these matters when he goes | :46:26. | :46:29. | |
around the conferences, The fact of the matter is, | :46:30. | :46:31. | |
we as the Welsh Conservatives are focused on one goal only | :46:32. | :46:35. | |
up until May the 5th and that is delivering | :46:36. | :46:38. | |
a Conservative government to the National Assembly for Wales | :46:39. | :46:40. | |
so you can have investment in the health service, | :46:41. | :46:42. | |
you can have excellence in education and you can have good quality jobs | :46:43. | :46:45. | |
with take-home pay rise. I will touch on those | :46:46. | :46:47. | |
issues but I want to He says you are fundamentally wrong | :46:48. | :46:50. | |
in your view of what a withdrawal I don't know how long David Cameron | :46:51. | :46:57. | |
has spent on a farm, What does he know about | :46:58. | :47:03. | |
farming that you don't? I've got my two sons | :47:04. | :47:08. | |
and daughter who want to come Before I go to work to do | :47:09. | :47:15. | |
the politics, I work on that farm I know what is good | :47:16. | :47:19. | |
for Welsh agriculture and I will tell you this much, | :47:20. | :47:23. | |
the decline in dairy farmers The decline in family farms in Wales | :47:24. | :47:26. | |
isn't good for Welsh agriculture. Ultimately, the lack | :47:27. | :47:31. | |
of opportunities for young people to come into agriculture is not good | :47:32. | :47:33. | |
for Welsh agriculture. What we need is to make | :47:34. | :47:36. | |
sure we have a vibrant, thriving Welsh agricultural industry | :47:37. | :47:39. | |
and we can have that debate, we can have that discussion | :47:40. | :47:43. | |
after May fifth. But what we need is a Welsh | :47:44. | :47:45. | |
Government that delivers on bovine TB, delivers on getting support | :47:46. | :47:48. | |
into Welsh agriculture rather than modulating farming | :47:49. | :47:52. | |
out of existence. I will finish on this | :47:53. | :47:54. | |
point if I may, we can either farm for subsidies | :47:55. | :47:56. | |
or we can farm for food. Ultimately, food security | :47:57. | :47:59. | |
is the biggest goal that this country has got to securing | :48:00. | :48:02. | |
the future going forward. Year-on-year, since | :48:03. | :48:04. | |
the Common Agricultural Policy came into existence, | :48:05. | :48:09. | |
food security for this country He talked a lot in that | :48:10. | :48:11. | |
speech yesterday about 40% potential tariff on Welsh lamb | :48:12. | :48:17. | |
exports, for example. You can't give an assurance | :48:18. | :48:19. | |
that there won't be a tariff in the event of a | :48:20. | :48:23. | |
withdrawal, can you? We import 435 million pounds worth | :48:24. | :48:25. | |
of beef into the United Kingdom. We export about ?120 million out | :48:26. | :48:31. | |
of the United Kingdom. The bulk of that imported | :48:32. | :48:35. | |
beef into the UK comes Those countries are going to want | :48:36. | :48:37. | |
to trade with this country because their market is bigger | :48:38. | :48:42. | |
coming into these countries If you can tell me the million | :48:43. | :48:44. | |
jobs in engineering in Germany they are going to turn | :48:45. | :48:48. | |
their back on this country or the five million jobs across | :48:49. | :48:52. | |
the European Union that is relying on trading with Britain, | :48:53. | :48:54. | |
the ?60 billion surplus they trade with the UK | :48:55. | :48:56. | |
is going to be turned away What we need with Europe | :48:57. | :48:59. | |
is a good, solid trading relationship that secures economic | :49:00. | :49:04. | |
prosperity not political union. I go back to my point, | :49:05. | :49:08. | |
May the 5th is the critical time frame that people can | :49:09. | :49:11. | |
vote for the first time in five years to reinvigorate the NHS, | :49:12. | :49:14. | |
get excellence in education and make sure that we have an economy that | :49:15. | :49:16. | |
gives decent take-home pay. You have been criticised | :49:17. | :49:21. | |
in the past, particularly at the time of the last Assembly | :49:22. | :49:25. | |
elections, you as a party, There was a proposed 20% reduction | :49:26. | :49:28. | |
in the education budget... There was a proposaly | :49:29. | :49:34. | |
that was set out. It was never proposed | :49:35. | :49:39. | |
by the Welsh Conservatives. It's proposed by Carwyn Jones time | :49:40. | :49:42. | |
and time again because of some clip that Nick Bourne gave | :49:43. | :49:45. | |
to the TV cameras but it was never in a manifesto and | :49:46. | :49:47. | |
it was never in a policy position. What is going to happen | :49:48. | :49:51. | |
to the education budget under a future | :49:52. | :49:53. | |
Conservative government? We want to make sure | :49:54. | :49:54. | |
we can fund schools directly to free up between ?50 | :49:55. | :49:56. | |
and ?70 million out of the bureaucracy, that | :49:57. | :49:59. | |
money hits the classroom. What we have announced as well | :50:00. | :50:02. | |
for tuition fee policies is a ?400 million support package for students | :50:03. | :50:05. | |
over the five years of the Assembly that will pay students directly | :50:06. | :50:09. | |
for their living costs. No other party has come clean | :50:10. | :50:12. | |
on how they will fund Importantly, we see | :50:13. | :50:15. | |
the importance of vocational FE, as well, needs to stand | :50:16. | :50:19. | |
shoulder to shoulder with HE so we have a | :50:20. | :50:24. | |
balanced education system and students and pupils can | :50:25. | :50:27. | |
reach their full potential. We have said the NHS | :50:28. | :50:31. | |
is the number one... What is going to happen | :50:32. | :50:35. | |
to the education budget? The education budget | :50:36. | :50:38. | |
will have more money freed up to its because we want | :50:39. | :50:40. | |
to fund schools directly. We will be making sure that money | :50:41. | :50:42. | |
hits the classroom rather than staying in County Hall | :50:43. | :50:45. | |
or central bureaucracy. The overall education | :50:46. | :50:47. | |
budget will increase under a Conservative government | :50:48. | :50:51. | |
in Cardiff Bay? I just mapped out to you what our | :50:52. | :50:53. | |
policy is on education, about how we want to | :50:54. | :50:56. | |
get more money into schools and we have announced | :50:57. | :50:58. | |
what we will do for HE and funding Does that mean the overall increase | :50:59. | :51:01. | |
in education budgets will increase? I would like to see as much money | :51:02. | :51:06. | |
going into public services as possible in Wales, | :51:07. | :51:09. | |
but what we have to be aware of is our money | :51:10. | :51:11. | |
is dependent on coming from There are spending reviews, | :51:12. | :51:14. | |
there are budgets every year and there are consequentials that | :51:15. | :51:19. | |
flow out of those budgets. We are talking about a five-year | :51:20. | :51:23. | |
period, where that money comes available we will want to put | :51:24. | :51:25. | |
it into front-line services. It would be wrong | :51:26. | :51:28. | |
of me at this stage to say I can guarantee X, Y or Z, | :51:29. | :51:30. | |
other than the health budget because ultimately we know | :51:31. | :51:33. | |
the Westminster government has given a protection of the health budget | :51:34. | :51:37. | |
in England with an extra ?8 billion There will be a direct consequential | :51:38. | :51:40. | |
coming over from that budget and we can guarantee 500 million | :51:41. | :51:44. | |
we will receive over the five years of the Assembly | :51:45. | :51:48. | |
will go into the Welsh NHS. You have two main policies | :51:49. | :51:50. | |
on this, directly elected health | :51:51. | :51:57. | |
commissioners and what you call What is that going to | :51:58. | :51:59. | |
do to waiting lists? How is that going to shorten waiting | :52:00. | :52:03. | |
times for patients in Wales? It has to be taken in | :52:04. | :52:06. | |
the round of what we propose, protecting the health | :52:07. | :52:08. | |
budget so that is investment secured so those commissioners of health | :52:09. | :52:11. | |
care knowing they will get those In this Assembly, | :52:12. | :52:13. | |
Welsh Labour along with Plaid Cymru and the Liberal | :52:14. | :52:16. | |
Democrats cut those budget lines so commissioners couldn't | :52:17. | :52:18. | |
commission services. Directly elected commissioners | :52:19. | :52:21. | |
of health in the regions of the health boards will be | :52:22. | :52:23. | |
directly accountable to those communities and people will be | :52:24. | :52:27. | |
a power to drive change within those Ultimately, a Keogh-style inquiry | :52:28. | :52:31. | |
will deliver on people's concerns about poor | :52:32. | :52:34. | |
standards of care. We have excellence in many areas | :52:35. | :52:37. | |
of the health service across Wales but where there are concerns such | :52:38. | :52:40. | |
as the Public Service Ombudsman outlined this week, they need to be | :52:41. | :52:43. | |
addressed not like Labour's policy of brushing this under the carpet | :52:44. | :52:47. | |
such as we had in Mid Staffs. Andrew RT Davies, | :52:48. | :52:50. | |
thank you very much. It's that time of year again | :52:51. | :52:53. | |
where the Chancellor reveals what's in his red box as he | :52:54. | :52:59. | |
outlines his budget. But this morning, George Osborne has | :53:00. | :53:02. | |
been saying he'll have to make further cuts to public spending | :53:03. | :53:04. | |
because the global economy Joining me now are two people who've | :53:05. | :53:07. | |
seen many Chancellors come and go. Victoria Winckler from | :53:08. | :53:14. | |
the Bevan Foundation think tank, and Professor Patrick Minford who's | :53:15. | :53:17. | |
advised many of them Thank you both are coming in. When | :53:18. | :53:35. | |
you are here George Osborne saying there is less money about and they | :53:36. | :53:38. | |
will have to be further savings, what does that make you think? | :53:39. | :53:44. | |
First of all, the savings are not inevitable. This is a regime he has | :53:45. | :53:50. | |
imposed on himself. If we still accept he wants to make savings of | :53:51. | :53:55. | |
cuts as other people might call them, I think that makes me really | :53:56. | :54:01. | |
quite concerned. We see public services cost very much to the bone | :54:02. | :54:05. | |
now and we see welfare payments really going down and down to | :54:06. | :54:08. | |
individuals and making life difficult. I accept the Chancellor's | :54:09. | :54:12. | |
options are difficult but the prospect of more cuts is not one | :54:13. | :54:17. | |
that would make me happy. Do you think when we look at welfare cuts, | :54:18. | :54:21. | |
for example, those Kurds we have already seen has gone down as fat as | :54:22. | :54:28. | |
they can go. How damaging with any more cuts speakers Mike Weir to | :54:29. | :54:36. | |
start thinking about what is the innovative -- acceptable? We're not | :54:37. | :54:41. | |
far off the floor. Groups of people. The cuts to housing benefit, the | :54:42. | :54:49. | |
macro to disability benefits mean there is no moral fact any more. You | :54:50. | :54:56. | |
have advised a few Conservative chancellors in your time. If you had | :54:57. | :54:59. | |
the year of George Osborne what would it be? You have got a separate | :55:00. | :55:04. | |
George Osborne boss Mike Retallick from what he is delivering. It has | :55:05. | :55:07. | |
been much slower than the Retallick when implied. We started out in the | :55:08. | :55:13. | |
beginning of the recession with 10% of national income deficit. We're | :55:14. | :55:20. | |
down to just under five. Was to get into surplus by 2020. He slipped, he | :55:21. | :55:25. | |
was originally going to get it balanced by now. Leading figures | :55:26. | :55:31. | |
with a large pinch of salt. He is trying to put a more disciplined on | :55:32. | :55:37. | |
the public sector to deliver better solutions, more innovative | :55:38. | :55:40. | |
solutions. The cuts have succeeded in delivering less government | :55:41. | :55:47. | |
spending, more efficiency. That is fine. The bee problem is his tax | :55:48. | :55:52. | |
behaviour has been random. But there's a lot of complexity of the | :55:53. | :55:57. | |
tax system. He brought in a national living wage which looks like a | :55:58. | :56:00. | |
tremendous own goals as that will raise wages for the lowest paid by | :56:01. | :56:07. | |
40% by 2020. That looks like it could be a real problem for him. | :56:08. | :56:11. | |
This morning he was on the Andrew Marr programme and said further | :56:12. | :56:15. | |
efficiencies would form part of the savings. If you look at the | :56:16. | :56:20. | |
Whitehall departments that have seen huge swathes of cuts, they are down | :56:21. | :56:24. | |
to the bone already. In terms of efficiency savings. | :56:25. | :56:27. | |
We never really know with public spending. Little servants don't get | :56:28. | :56:34. | |
serious about changing the way they do things until they are faced with | :56:35. | :56:39. | |
no alternative. Then they discover better ways of delivering. They | :56:40. | :56:43. | |
become more efficient. The Treasury is an old hand at this. They say the | :56:44. | :56:49. | |
only way they can have the public servers to innovate is saying there | :56:50. | :56:52. | |
is no more money. Politics takes over the do the same thing. We | :56:53. | :56:56. | |
should take it with a pinch of salt. There are lots of ways in which | :56:57. | :57:02. | |
governments can be delivered cheaply. We are facing a growing | :57:03. | :57:11. | |
economy, he has done pretty well, George Osborne, in the performance | :57:12. | :57:15. | |
of the economy. Looking at what he might be able to play around with. | :57:16. | :57:18. | |
There was a manifesto commitments last year, a once to increase | :57:19. | :57:24. | |
personal allowance on tax to 12,000. Would that be something you would be | :57:25. | :57:28. | |
willing to see jettisoned in order to spend more on something like | :57:29. | :57:32. | |
welfare? The increase in personal allowance | :57:33. | :57:36. | |
is no greater benefits for people who are earning less than that | :57:37. | :57:39. | |
amount. There are a lot of people earning less than that. For people | :57:40. | :57:43. | |
earning just over that, it doesn't make a huge difference. For me, from | :57:44. | :57:49. | |
a social justice perspective, raising the tax allowance is not a | :57:50. | :57:56. | |
significant one. To keep that level and to be able to maintain | :57:57. | :58:01. | |
expenditure on some aspects of welfare benefits, some aspects of | :58:02. | :58:04. | |
the health service would be welcome. One of the things he could do, he | :58:05. | :58:10. | |
was to take the threshold for top earners to 50000 by 2020, if he | :58:11. | :58:14. | |
ditched that that is saving 6 billion. Is that the type of thing | :58:15. | :58:20. | |
he will have to look at? Ditching those tax cuts that Willie manifesto | :58:21. | :58:25. | |
commitment? I agree with Victoria on this business of the personal | :58:26. | :58:28. | |
allowance. It is a very cost ineffective way of helping lower | :58:29. | :58:35. | |
income people. This is where Osborne has got real problems. He doesn't | :58:36. | :58:40. | |
understand why tax credits are deficient to incentivise people into | :58:41. | :58:44. | |
the labour market. That is where he has got it wrong. The balance | :58:45. | :58:48. | |
between the national living wage and tax credit and personal allowance | :58:49. | :58:52. | |
which is a total waste of money. It doesn't affect the tax raise of the | :58:53. | :58:57. | |
people on low incomes stop it sounds to me like he has backed himself | :58:58. | :59:00. | |
into a corner because he doesn't have that much money for wiggle | :59:01. | :59:08. | |
room. What do you expect? What do expect he will pull out of the hat? | :59:09. | :59:14. | |
Nottingham North. He is going to raise insurance premium tax. He will | :59:15. | :59:17. | |
tax the banks again. It doesn't make a lot of sense. He has got himself | :59:18. | :59:23. | |
caught in this abolition of tax credits, through the universal cap | :59:24. | :59:29. | |
that is coming in. He has got himself into a corner. He had to | :59:30. | :59:35. | |
adjust, we have to have a new Chancellor to start again and get | :59:36. | :59:38. | |
this thing right. He has made a terrible mess of this area of | :59:39. | :59:44. | |
policy. Short of that nuclear, do you think it is something in terms | :59:45. | :59:48. | |
of fuel duty as the prices of oil has been falling and falling, we are | :59:49. | :59:52. | |
seeing less than a pound per litre diesel and petrol. My Bass might he | :59:53. | :00:08. | |
be looking about? I think there are also taxes that | :00:09. | :00:14. | |
there is a lot of support for. Tax and added sugar in food. Whole areas | :00:15. | :00:21. | |
of taxing he could be looking at and which could generate income and | :00:22. | :00:25. | |
reduce the harm. When we saw yesterday, half a million people | :00:26. | :00:30. | |
with disabilities are going to be effective now because of changes to | :00:31. | :00:33. | |
personal independence payments, when Osborne is so focused on getting to | :00:34. | :00:39. | |
grips with welfare bill and payments, you are talking about that | :00:40. | :00:41. | |
this morning, is a something he needs to do from eight public | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
spending points of view on visits a philosophical aim he has? It is | :00:48. | :00:53. | |
philosophical. He has got himself into a twist on this whole issue. | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
There are problems with welfare, now be reasonable limits. In the whole | :00:59. | :01:02. | |
structure of this thing we have to stick with tax credits. If he wants | :01:03. | :01:09. | |
to be a tax reform which he is the opposite, he needs to simplify the | :01:10. | :01:12. | |
tax system particularly at the top weather is a massive network of high | :01:13. | :01:16. | |
matter tax rates which he is able to drift in and that is a big problem. | :01:17. | :01:21. | |
It doesn't raise any revenue. He's got scope for that. If he focused on | :01:22. | :01:27. | |
that he will be a better Chancellor. Thank you both for coming in this | :01:28. | :01:32. | |
morning. We will have more on that on Wednesday on the budget on all of | :01:33. | :01:34. | |
BBC Wales's programme. Thanks for watching, | :01:35. | :01:35. | |
time to go back to Andrew. for years to come. Thank you very | :01:36. | :01:43. | |
much indeed. Now it is back to Andrew. | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
So, what's in store for us this week? | :01:49. | :01:51. | |
Well, just the small matter of George Osborne's Budget. | :01:52. | :01:53. | |
Another EU summit and the political diary's jam-packed with | :01:54. | :01:56. | |
Let's hear more from our Political Panel, and we're also | :01:57. | :02:03. | |
joined by the Conservative MP, David Davis. | :02:04. | :02:09. | |
100 days to go. Where are we at the moment in this campaign? Just on | :02:10. | :02:19. | |
polling, we are balanced with a large number of uncertainty. What | :02:20. | :02:25. | |
has happened in the last few weeks has been dominated with the flow of | :02:26. | :02:30. | |
events. Turkey has dominated peoples minds and that is what will happen | :02:31. | :02:34. | |
for most of the next 100 days. Events like that will force people. | :02:35. | :02:40. | |
Turkey is about security and immigration and so on. That is a | :02:41. | :02:45. | |
potential backdrop. If the Turkish deal begins to fall apart and the | :02:46. | :02:48. | |
migrant crisis continues, which almost certainly it will, that is | :02:49. | :02:53. | |
the kind of backdrop that is probably more helpful to your side | :02:54. | :02:56. | |
of the referendum than the other one? It is not an accident, a | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
structural outcome of the Schengen zone and the weakness of the eastern | :03:02. | :03:07. | |
border. On other fronts, the financial front, you have the Euro | :03:08. | :03:12. | |
structurally driving events. It seems to me the balance of | :03:13. | :03:16. | |
probabilities in the next 100 days will be those sorts of things are | :03:17. | :03:23. | |
actually going to favour a Brexit. For years and years, Mr Cameron, Mr | :03:24. | :03:30. | |
Osborne, Mr Hague and so on have been spewing out Eurosceptic | :03:31. | :03:37. | |
dialogue. Now they praise our membership of the EU! We cannot | :03:38. | :03:42. | |
survive without the EU. Doesn't that risk jarring a bit with the | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
electorate? I think it is absurd. We have a situation where the Prime | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
Minister gave a big speech at Chatham House. He said can if you | :03:52. | :03:56. | |
could not get the reforms, he would consider the alternative. Everything | :03:57. | :04:01. | |
was on the table. In two options can he would consider campaigning to | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
vote to leave. Now we are told if we left Britain, virtually | :04:06. | :04:11. | |
catastrophic. Plagues of locusts and we will probably all die. You cannot | :04:12. | :04:16. | |
say in November I will leave if I do not get my reforms and now say our | :04:17. | :04:20. | |
country will collapse. That cannot be true, otherwise he would have | :04:21. | :04:24. | |
been willing to leave the EU and risk economic collapse. I think it | :04:25. | :04:31. | |
is scare tactics by Project Fear and it has been very damaging. People | :04:32. | :04:38. | |
like me want Brexit but it is very damaging to the Conservative Party | :04:39. | :04:42. | |
and unity. Howdy you see the campaign going? It has been largely | :04:43. | :04:53. | |
dominated by the Vote Remain rather than the Vote Leave. Vote Remain | :04:54. | :05:02. | |
have chucked a lot at Vote Leave. Many reports have been pumped out. | :05:03. | :05:09. | |
They are in danger of using up all of that arguments for the race has | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
got going. It does look fairly balanced. Some polling has suggested | :05:14. | :05:19. | |
it leans a little towards the remaining side. Whenever people like | :05:20. | :05:25. | |
David or others say it is all Project Fear, for the silent group | :05:26. | :05:29. | |
of people and families with children who are not paying that much | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
attention, if you talk about fear at all, there is a slight sense of | :05:33. | :05:35. | |
maybe there is something to be fearful of after all. It works a | :05:36. | :05:41. | |
bit, I am sure it does, but for how long question that when the Danes | :05:42. | :05:45. | |
had their Euro referendum, the same thing happened. Eventually people | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
were going in for the mockery, as you were, saying we're going to have | :05:50. | :05:57. | |
a 17 foot high fence between us and Germany. That destroyed the campaign | :05:58. | :06:01. | |
for the one thing that has happened is the credibility of the Government | :06:02. | :06:05. | |
are doing has slipped quite a lot in the last few weeks and it is partly | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
because of the exaggeration. You have two friends getting slightly | :06:11. | :06:13. | |
nervous of it, slightly afraid of it, worrying about the risks. On the | :06:14. | :06:18. | |
other hand, they are starting to say, do we really believe all this | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
nonsense? That is the undetermined fact. It has not been a reasonable | :06:24. | :06:29. | |
debate about facts. Is it too early to see who has been nudging ahead? | :06:30. | :06:35. | |
What is significant is that David Davis has a tie in the colours of | :06:36. | :06:43. | |
Vote Leave. The other one is a green tie with black writing. This is an | :06:44. | :06:54. | |
issue of taste. I think what we are learning is the Brexit side is | :06:55. | :06:56. | |
winning skirmishes. The reason they are doing that is because they are | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
an insurgency. With an insurgency, it has six Cabinet ministers in it | :07:02. | :07:05. | |
and that is exciting. You will clearly set the news agenda. The | :07:06. | :07:11. | |
battle in the overall war, you would assume that Remain is nudging ahead | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
because the polling after the Prime Minister Pozner Diehl said voters | :07:16. | :07:22. | |
were impressed by that. Vote Leave have an incredibly simple and | :07:23. | :07:27. | |
incredibly powerful message. Take back control. You may well find that | :07:28. | :07:31. | |
message is so simple and so clear that that might achieve a cut | :07:32. | :07:39. | |
through. Is the queen on the Brexit side or not? I do not think anyone | :07:40. | :07:44. | |
is questioning she is a Eurosceptic. Even at the palace they are not | :07:45. | :07:49. | |
disputing that and the complaint may have made about the story in the Sun | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
newspaper last week. People have said she has in making these | :07:54. | :07:56. | |
comments for some time. Cabinet ministers have told me they do | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
similar things. This woman puts the mother bubble things -- the | :08:01. | :08:08. | |
Commonwealth above all things. She defends the laws and traditions of | :08:09. | :08:14. | |
this country as well. Not Brexit necessarily but Eurosceptic? That | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
seems incontrovertible. The palace and Number 10 are not disputing that | :08:21. | :08:27. | |
at all. It is great to have the Queen onside but I would like her to | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
have one vote. She does not have a vote at all. Is this more within the | :08:32. | :08:43. | |
Tory family question is it more bitter than you thought? Will it get | :08:44. | :08:50. | |
more bitter as time goes on? Even if Mr Cameron wins, he may find it hard | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
to put it together again. I do not think so. It is robust, pretty | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
robust. To some extent he sets the tone himself if he is rude about | :09:00. | :09:06. | |
Boris, there is a backlash. Some say he regards Boris in the same way he | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
regards Ed Balls. A scan and he cannot stop picking at it. This is | :09:13. | :09:23. | |
outside the house and takes quite a lot of poison out of it. It is | :09:24. | :09:27. | |
robust and fears. People are taking it incredibly seriously. How is | :09:28. | :09:33. | |
Boris doing? Pretty well. What is his real value? He draws attention | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
to the issue and adds credibility to it. He makes the odd mistake and | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
everyone forgives him for it. On balance, very useful and important. | :09:43. | :09:51. | |
What about cross-party appeal? The Government began by emphasising the | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
security implications of staying in, saying we needed to stay because of | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
security. I think they have found that a tough argument because people | :10:01. | :10:04. | |
do not associate EU with security. They will move on economic arguments | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
now. The problem with economic arguments is they are nowhere near | :10:09. | :10:14. | |
well-defined as clear and cut -- clearly cut as they were in 1975. | :10:15. | :10:19. | |
They want to make a big picture argument. David Cameron got this | :10:20. | :10:25. | |
deal on the Friday in Brussels. At 7:30pm, George Osborne was on the | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
today programme making a massive destiny economic security argument. | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
They know you cannot focus on the nitty-gritty of that. You have to | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
make the big picture argument. It is potentially a mixed picture. David | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
was saying earlier there is a major crisis in the Eurozone in the next | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
few months, then that could be difficult. You have the opt out full | :10:49. | :10:52. | |
stop when you are in government, there was an opt out from Britain | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
having to join the euro. There is a major crisis. Two European summits | :10:58. | :11:06. | |
in one week. That was not the case when we voted in 1975. The common | :11:07. | :11:10. | |
market was seen as a successful, economic unit that we needed to | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
join. The atmospherics are very different. For 20 years, it was the | :11:17. | :11:22. | |
most successful economic unit, until about the early 90s. Since then we | :11:23. | :11:29. | |
have got nothing. That is what people are seeing. We are moving on | :11:30. | :11:36. | |
to the economic arguments. We have the budget which frames it. They're | :11:37. | :11:38. | |
going to see Barack Obama coming here towards the end of April. | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
You'll be making the argument and doing several events, as I | :11:44. | :11:52. | |
understand it. He owes him a favour. Basically, what you're going to get | :11:53. | :11:56. | |
as a return to the security argument. Returning to where we | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
started this debate, you have got a situation where events will often | :12:01. | :12:05. | |
favoured the out side but the control and ability to stage managed | :12:06. | :12:08. | |
different moments is with the governments. -- the Government. They | :12:09. | :12:16. | |
published a letter with generals on it and have not signed it. One of | :12:17. | :12:23. | |
the generals came out this morning and said he was supporting the | :12:24. | :12:28. | |
Government. It is from the Scottish referendum playbook. That worked. We | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
saw Nicola Sturgeon struggling an hour ago, to explain basic, fiscal | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
point about an independent Scotland but that is why Scotland voted to | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
stay in the UK. You do not know whether the Government will have | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
that element of certainty. As things stand at the moment, are we in or | :12:47. | :12:52. | |
out? The last time I was here I cautiously gave numbers. I would | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
still cautiously stay in. Depressingly I feel we would remain. | :12:57. | :13:05. | |
In with a suppose so vote. None of you overly enthusiast take. We are | :13:06. | :13:09. | |
right on a knife edge in terms of public opinions. We live in a world | :13:10. | :13:17. | |
where the consensus opinion these days is usually wrong. | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
I'll be back next week, same time same place. | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:26. | :13:32. |