Browse content similar to 08/05/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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A thumping big win for Labour over the Conservatives in London - | :00:36. | :00:41. | |
but what do Thursday's less impressive results across | :00:42. | :00:44. | |
the country mean for Jeremy Corbyn's chances of getting to Number 10? | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
We'll hear from both sides of the debate | :00:49. | :00:50. | |
Here's one Tory riding high at least. | :00:51. | :00:54. | |
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has managed to take | :00:55. | :00:57. | |
the party once thought of as too toxic for Scotland | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
And with the elections now over, it's back to the biggest political | :01:01. | :01:07. | |
The Cabinet's heavyweights have been trading blows | :01:08. | :01:15. | |
Later in the programme, the voting is over but as the Assembly convenes | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
all the parties have questions to answer. | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
And how will the Khan- Corbyn combo work? | :01:21. | :01:33. | |
giving media interviews this morning, I'm joined in the studio | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
by the aristocracy, the upper crust, the royalty | :01:39. | :01:40. | |
Tom Newton-Dunn, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards. | :01:41. | :01:47. | |
We're going to have a whip round after the show | :01:48. | :01:49. | |
and get Steve a double-barrelled surname too. | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
So, this week's elections were an extraordinary | :01:53. | :02:04. | |
demonstration of modern democracy in the United Kingdom. | :02:05. | :02:06. | |
There was good and bad for almost every political party | :02:07. | :02:09. | |
across the nations and regions, and that's meant a feast | :02:10. | :02:11. | |
of spinning, analysis, claim and counter-claim. | :02:12. | :02:12. | |
Well today with almost all of the results now in - | :02:13. | :02:15. | |
although we're still waiting for a few police and crime | :02:16. | :02:17. | |
commissioners and one English council - we're going to try | :02:18. | :02:20. | |
First here's Adam with his behind-the-scenes look at how | :02:21. | :02:24. | |
It's election night, and my chance to annoy the big | :02:25. | :02:29. | |
And this is the most depressing bit. | :02:30. | :02:37. | |
Are you expecting to get a bit of a headache? | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
It's a two day extravaganza of results. | :02:43. | :02:48. | |
Will Jeremy Corbyn be staying up all night tonight? | :02:49. | :02:50. | |
Jeremy doesn't go to bed on nights like this! | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
We're old mates, we've been together 30 years on these different things | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
So you're both proper election night geeks? | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
The Labour telly addicts watched their party lose one council | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
and a handful of councillors in England, not a lot, | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
but not amazing either, as even Jeremy Corbyn admitted. | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
We were getting predictions that Labour was going to lose councils, | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
Although he celebrated winning two by-elections in pretty | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
This is the first time I've ever had a desk at one of these things. | :03:24. | :03:32. | |
The SNP got close to a majority in the Scottish Parliament, | :03:33. | :03:38. | |
It is a vote of confidence in the record in government | :03:39. | :03:49. | |
of the SNP, and it is a vote of trust in the SNP to lead | :03:50. | :03:56. | |
Davidson, Ruth - Scottish and Conservative and Unionist... | :03:57. | :04:03. | |
The biggest smile belongs to Ruth Davidson, leader | :04:04. | :04:05. | |
of the Scottish Tories, who displaced Labour to become | :04:06. | :04:09. | |
Have you been looking in the results in Scotland than just going whoa? | :04:10. | :04:14. | |
Even if you look at some of the seats... | :04:15. | :04:23. | |
We've just seen a few come through, the SNP have hold of one, but, | :04:24. | :04:27. | |
actually, with huge swings from the SNP to the Conservatives. | :04:28. | :04:30. | |
In Wales Ukip won their first seats on the Assembly, | :04:31. | :04:33. | |
meaning a comeback for the former Tory MP Neil Hamilton, | :04:34. | :04:36. | |
who managed to offend one Welshman within seconds. | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
I'm thoroughly Welsh through and through, | :04:41. | :04:41. | |
Here were are in virtually your hometown of Llanelli. | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
Just one correction, Neil, of course it's not | :04:46. | :04:47. | |
virtually my hometown - it is my hometown. | :04:48. | :04:50. | |
So let's be very accurate about that, shall we? | :04:51. | :04:53. | |
By lunchtime on Friday, us media types had realised that | :04:54. | :04:58. | |
nothing especially dramatic had happened, so we all hotfooted | :04:59. | :05:02. | |
it to City Hall to see Labour's Sadiq Khan elected | :05:03. | :05:05. | |
Though most of the chat among the hacks in the press room | :05:06. | :05:10. | |
was about the campaign run by his Tory rival, Zac Goldsmith, | :05:11. | :05:19. | |
which was described as mean and divisive. | :05:20. | :05:21. | |
I personally never went near central office in either | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
of my campaigns, and I don't think Boris Johnson did either. | :05:27. | :05:28. | |
Is that because they're not very good? | :05:29. | :05:30. | |
That's because you are the candidates, it is | :05:31. | :05:32. | |
your campaign and you should run it your way. | :05:33. | :05:36. | |
And Labour nabbed another mayor, in Bristol, taking over | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
The results from other campaigns around the UK are still | :05:42. | :05:46. | |
It's not been super exciting, but we have got a nice view | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
So with almost all the counting and number crunching across England, | :05:52. | :06:02. | |
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland now finished, let's take a look | :06:03. | :06:04. | |
The SNP won the Scottish election, and will be the largest party | :06:05. | :06:10. | |
But Nicola Sturgeon's party fell two short of a majority, and will govern | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
Ruth Davidson's Conservatives overtook Labour to become the second | :06:17. | :06:22. | |
biggest party north of the border, with 31 seats. | :06:23. | :06:26. | |
Scottish Labour were pushed into 3rd place - | :06:27. | :06:29. | |
with 24 seats, down 13 from the last Holyrood election. | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
Labour remains the dominant party in Wales, winning 29 | :06:34. | :06:35. | |
And Leanne Wood's Plaid Cymru pipped the Conservatives 12 to 11 to become | :06:36. | :06:41. | |
taking 7 seats in Wales - the first time they've sat | :06:42. | :06:49. | |
In Northern Ireland, the DUP will once again | :06:50. | :06:53. | |
They won 38 seats, with the next biggest party Sinn Fein on 28. | :06:54. | :06:59. | |
Results in the English councils were seen as a major test | :07:00. | :07:02. | |
And the party had a mixed night, winning the most councils - | :07:03. | :07:08. | |
but losing 23 councillors since the last elections in 2012. | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
There were two Westminster by-elections - with Labour | :07:13. | :07:14. | |
holding the seats of Sheffield Brightside and Ogmore. | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
And the Labour party won in London too - | :07:19. | :07:21. | |
where Sadiq Khan beat Zac Goldsmith to the mayoralty, | :07:22. | :07:23. | |
winning 57% of the vote on first preferences, to Goldsmith's 43%. | :07:24. | :07:31. | |
The Green Party came third in the London elections - | :07:32. | :07:34. | |
with their highest vote tally yet in the capital. | :07:35. | :07:36. | |
There were also new Mayors chosen in Bristol, Salford and Liverpool - | :07:37. | :07:39. | |
Finally, voters in 40 police forces in England and Wales | :07:40. | :07:43. | |
elected their new Police and Crime Commissioner. | :07:44. | :07:46. | |
With the Tories and Labour triumphing over independents. | :07:47. | :07:50. | |
With 36 of the 40 election results having declared, the Tories have won | :07:51. | :07:54. | |
What does this mean, in the round, for Labour? It is the worst possible | :07:55. | :08:12. | |
result for Labour, because it isn't good enough, and it isn't bad | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
enough, which is the worst-case scenario for anyone who wants Labour | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
to win in 2020. This is concerning the likes of Jeremy Corbyn and John | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
McDonnell, but it is the point of being a political party, winning | :08:28. | :08:30. | |
elections. Is it the worst of both worlds because they didn't do badly | :08:31. | :08:36. | |
enough? To justify ousting Corbyn, but they didn't do well enough to | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
suggest that Corbyn's people were right, and there was a groundswell | :08:41. | :08:45. | |
of opinion moving to the far left. We saw the message coming out from | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
the deputy leader on Friday morning, stand-down everyone, not yet. Do you | :08:51. | :08:55. | |
agree? No. Even if these results had been much worse, as many expected it | :08:56. | :09:01. | |
would be in the media and beyond, it still wouldn't have been the mood | :09:02. | :09:05. | |
now. It is all being played out in public. Tom Watson, the deputy | :09:06. | :09:10. | |
leader, gave an interview on Friday where he called ambiguously for | :09:11. | :09:14. | |
patients. What he meant was, it is far too early to remove a leader who | :09:15. | :09:20. | |
got an overwhelming mandate nine months ago in September. And he's | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
right about that. You can't do it if the party membership overwhelmingly | :09:26. | :09:30. | |
backs the leader. But what he meant by patients was, you don't have to | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
translate it, there is a time-limit to this. Jeremy Corbyn needs more | :09:36. | :09:38. | |
time to show he can put together a winning formula. If he fails in | :09:39. | :09:44. | |
that, at some point, there will be he and others who will trigger some | :09:45. | :09:49. | |
kind of challenge. So he's on a leasehold? Yes. He's not doing well | :09:50. | :09:55. | |
enough to suggest he will win the next election. I don't agree with | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
Julia that people are indifferent about winning elections. But party | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
members who voted for Jeremy Corbyn are absolutely different to winning | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
elections. I don't know. I assume that people who go out knocking on | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
doors want to win. Sadiq Khan. That was the big result for Labour, and | :10:14. | :10:18. | |
he won very comfortably. He won very strongly in the GLA as well. The | :10:19. | :10:26. | |
Tories did very badly. We have this strange situation where, despite | :10:27. | :10:29. | |
Sadiq Khan being the poster boy for the night, he still hasn't met | :10:30. | :10:34. | |
Jeremy Corbyn. Is Mr Khan going to be an alternative Labour Party based | :10:35. | :10:39. | |
around London City Hall? He tells us he's going to meet Jeremy Corbyn | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
tomorrow. Corbyn said they were going to meet today. It is a real | :10:45. | :10:49. | |
problem for Jeremy now because he is up against someone else with their | :10:50. | :10:55. | |
own mandate, an enormous one. 1.3 million Londoners, together with | :10:56. | :10:58. | |
their second preferences. A huge number. I think Sadiq Khan will use | :10:59. | :11:04. | |
that to be the mouthpiece of the moderates, the soft left. I would | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
suggest that if we were not looking at this through the prism of what it | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
means for Mr Corbyn, we may be pointing out that the Tories didn't | :11:13. | :11:18. | |
have a great night. They lost seats in England and Wales, they lost | :11:19. | :11:21. | |
London and their share of the vote in London is now under 30%. They | :11:22. | :11:27. | |
only got eight seats on the Greater London assembly. They are in their | :11:28. | :11:32. | |
worst position since 2004, which was the second time we had a London | :11:33. | :11:36. | |
election. It isn't brilliant for them. They would save the first year | :11:37. | :11:40. | |
in government, do get this kind of reaction. Or worse ones. At what is | :11:41. | :11:46. | |
overlooked in all this is that the last Labour government's post-97 | :11:47. | :11:51. | |
devolution proposals has transformed UK politics. In Scotland, the | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
Conservatives are thrilled because they came second, but that wasn't | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
about David Cameron, it was about Ruth Davidson, their leader there. | :12:01. | :12:05. | |
In London, when people voted for Sadiq Khan, they were not thinking | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
about Jeremy Corbyn. They were voting for him. Unintentionally, | :12:11. | :12:16. | |
those devolution proposals have transformed UK politics, fracturing | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
the UK parties, and will no longer allow any single party to make those | :12:21. | :12:26. | |
sort of thousand seat gains that Blair did. But the Tories shouldn't | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
be too complacent about this. It wasn't a great result. It wasn't, | :12:30. | :12:38. | |
but who would expect it? The party is an absolute disarray, the deepest | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
divisions. We have had a senior Cabinet Minister resign, criticising | :12:44. | :12:46. | |
the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. If they did well this | :12:47. | :12:50. | |
time, I would be surprised. So the Tories should have done worse? They | :12:51. | :12:56. | |
should. I would disagree with your hypothesis to begin with, because | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
they are, in some parts of this country, making remarkable progress, | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
like Scotland. They could have lost seats. We know the Ruth Davidson | :13:05. | :13:12. | |
story. If David Cameron can show his own party he's still a winner, six | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
years into government, I would suggest he is pretty safe | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
post-referendum. Well, that is our panel's verdict. | :13:22. | :13:24. | |
So the high point for the Conservatives this week | :13:25. | :13:26. | |
was undoubtedly in Scotland, where a party once known | :13:27. | :13:28. | |
as the toxic Tories has become Ruth Davidson's Conservatives, | :13:29. | :13:30. | |
replacing Labour as Scotland's second party and becoming | :13:31. | :13:32. | |
the official opposition to the SNP at Holyrood. | :13:33. | :13:34. | |
Ruth Davidson successfully positioned herself as the only | :13:35. | :13:36. | |
person capable of standing up to Nicola Sturgeon over independence | :13:37. | :13:38. | |
This morning Nicola Sturgeon says "bring it on2. | :13:39. | :13:42. | |
Well we can speak now to Ruth Davidson, she joins us | :13:43. | :13:45. | |
Good morning. Are the Scottish Conservatives now quite separate | :13:46. | :13:57. | |
from the Tories? There was no appearance in your campaign from | :13:58. | :14:05. | |
ministers in Westminster. But our campaign was launched in March? | :14:06. | :14:10. | |
Other than that, did anybody come up to campaign for you? This was not | :14:11. | :14:16. | |
about London. It is a sophisticated electorate in Scotland. People knew | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
what they were voting for. This wasn't about who would be Prime | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
Minister. This was about who would be the First Minister of Scotland, | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
and who would be the Leader of the Opposition in Scotland. I made a | :14:30. | :14:32. | |
very clear campaign of what I would do if I were to be the Leader of the | :14:33. | :14:38. | |
Opposition, how I would hold the SNP to account, how I would say no to a | :14:39. | :14:42. | |
second independence referendum, and how I would concentrate on the | :14:43. | :14:47. | |
things that matter to ordinary Scots. Let's not go over the | :14:48. | :14:52. | |
campaign again! I could probably say those lines in my sleep! In what | :14:53. | :14:57. | |
ways to you now regard yourself as distinctive and different from the | :14:58. | :14:58. | |
English Tories? Since I took over as leader I was | :14:59. | :15:08. | |
the first leader in Scotland to be the leader of the entire party in | :15:09. | :15:10. | |
Scotland. In terms of fundraising, Pelissie... What made you different? | :15:11. | :15:20. | |
You had seen me takes on different policy decisions from my colleagues | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
down south, if you compare the manifestos you will see differences, | :15:26. | :15:30. | |
for one example, the right to buy for housing association houses. We | :15:31. | :15:34. | |
don't think that is appropriate for the housing market in Scotland. How | :15:35. | :15:37. | |
colleagues did down south. There is a distinct difference that. I wonder | :15:38. | :15:43. | |
if it was a Scottish Conservative idea or not. The title was Ruth | :15:44. | :15:53. | |
Davidson, a strong opposition. It did say Scottish Conservatives twice | :15:54. | :15:56. | |
on the front cover. And multiply many times inside. In the Times, the | :15:57. | :16:02. | |
roof, the whole truth and nothing but the roof. You created a new Tory | :16:03. | :16:06. | |
brand. -- Ruth the. We don't fight just as conservatives | :16:07. | :16:17. | |
in Scotland but conservatives in the Unionist party. The echoes of the | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
Unionist party played quite loud in this election was that they were | :16:22. | :16:24. | |
looking for people who would unequivocally stand up for the | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
decision we made just 20 months ago. I think that was an area we fought | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
strongly on now we have had some success. While I recognise a win for | :16:33. | :16:36. | |
the Scottish National party, they are now in a third term of | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
government, and I congratulated the First Minister, what was really | :16:42. | :16:44. | |
significant about the result is we managed to stop them having a | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
majority. They slipped back. This idea that they didn't put a clear | :16:49. | :16:54. | |
mandate for a referendum in their manifesto, unlike in 2011, and now | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
they don't even have a majority, that takes the second referendum off | :16:59. | :17:03. | |
the table for five years and give Scotland's stability. You say a | :17:04. | :17:06. | |
second referendum is off the cards and I understand the reasons why. I | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
suggest that means unionists in the rest of the UK you would like to | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
back Brexit can now do so without the fear of the second independence | :17:15. | :17:20. | |
referendum? I argued all through this campaign irrespective of what | :17:21. | :17:23. | |
happens with a referendum on Europe, that is not trigger point for a | :17:24. | :17:29. | |
second referendum. I haven't heard anyone in the SNP argued | :17:30. | :17:33. | |
successfully if there are was a Brexit... It is important we stay | :17:34. | :17:41. | |
part of the union in which we export so many goods and services. I have | :17:42. | :17:45. | |
yet to have anyone in the SNP explain it. But I look forward in | :17:46. | :17:51. | |
the coming weeks to hear them make the argument for that. Last time the | :17:52. | :17:59. | |
SNP were a majority government the Scottish Tories gave them crucial | :18:00. | :18:02. | |
support on budget votes. Can you see us of doing that again? I think | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
times move on. The SNP is no longer led by Alex Salmond... We know that. | :18:08. | :18:16. | |
I think we will be robust. I will seek to put forward alternatives. I | :18:17. | :18:21. | |
want to be as positive as I can be, not just crudely and blocking and | :18:22. | :18:24. | |
questioning, although all of that is important. The debate we haven't had | :18:25. | :18:28. | |
in Scotland for the last five years, but I want to put forward | :18:29. | :18:31. | |
alternatives. One area I think we can make common cause is reforming | :18:32. | :18:35. | |
education, it is a disgrace our school performances have gone back | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
in Scotland in recent years. We used to have the best education system | :18:40. | :18:51. | |
anywhere in the world. That is no longer the case. There is a lot I | :18:52. | :18:54. | |
can do to try and bring the SNP onto our ground. I managed in the last | :18:55. | :18:56. | |
parliament coming from third, in terms of school testing and money | :18:57. | :18:59. | |
not just being handed to local authorities, I think we got a wink, | :19:00. | :19:02. | |
teach first. There are real areas I think we can help the debate in | :19:03. | :19:04. | |
Scotland and put forward is positive or turn at its. You shouldn't | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
overplay your part. The SNP is still the dominant party in Holyrood, you | :19:10. | :19:13. | |
are second, but all the other opposition parties are to the left | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
of you. You're still a minority voice and won't be able to count on | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
the opposition, other opposition parties ganging up on your side? We | :19:22. | :19:26. | |
are a hugely important voice precisely because of the other side | :19:27. | :19:34. | |
in voices you have identified. The First Minister, like the Prime | :19:35. | :19:36. | |
Minister has competing and conflicting areas of interest: how | :19:37. | :19:39. | |
one way or another. You are right to say Nicola Sturgeon has that she | :19:40. | :19:42. | |
wants to make Scotland the highest in the UK. The other parties are | :19:43. | :19:47. | |
trying to drag a further left, taking more money out of the pocket | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
of ordinary working Scots. Our voice is crucial to pull her back to the | :19:53. | :19:55. | |
centre, saying that is not the way to look after the Beeb all working | :19:56. | :19:59. | |
hard and deserve a break in Scotland but also not the way to look after a | :20:00. | :20:04. | |
Scottish economy. Last month's figures, 20,000 rise in unemployment | :20:05. | :20:10. | |
in the UK, most of which came from Scotland. Our economic growth is a | :20:11. | :20:14. | |
fraction of the rest of the UK. We need to become a more competitive | :20:15. | :20:17. | |
country. That is an odd and I can make very strongly. Let me ask you | :20:18. | :20:21. | |
this, when you look at the huge powers that have been devolved | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
Scotland, and more on their way over schools, education, hospitals, | :20:27. | :20:29. | |
health, transport and now a chunk of tax as well, is it ever conceivable | :20:30. | :20:36. | |
that a Scottish MP from a Scottish constituency could ever again be | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
Prime Minister of the United given that they would have no | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
responsibility for so many things that affect the rest of the UK? Of | :20:45. | :20:50. | |
course. Typically in the last Labour government you had a health minister | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
who came from Lanarkshire in John Reid you had a chance of that came | :20:55. | :21:01. | |
from Edinburgh. Is that conceivable again, that you could have a Home | :21:02. | :21:06. | |
Secretary from a Scottish constituency, where everything on | :21:07. | :21:10. | |
the home front is essentially devolved to Scotland? It was | :21:11. | :21:13. | |
devolved at the time it was being taken over by John Reid. I know he | :21:14. | :21:18. | |
played Parliamentary bingo and got a lot of big jobs. If you have English | :21:19. | :21:24. | |
votes for English laws, a Scottish Prime Minister wouldn't even get to | :21:25. | :21:30. | |
vote on his own policies. Andrew, you and I have talked about this | :21:31. | :21:35. | |
many times. You saw our Strathclyde commission report, the basis that | :21:36. | :21:38. | |
the Smith commission, the devolution of all these powers on one of the | :21:39. | :21:43. | |
key aspects of that, looking at great detail with constitutional | :21:44. | :21:47. | |
expert, was to ensure it wouldn't divest Scotland away from the rest | :21:48. | :21:51. | |
of the UK. I don't think it does. In terms of all of the big jobs, I | :21:52. | :21:56. | |
think you will see another Scottish Prime Minister, or from Wales or | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
Northern Ireland. Talent will out. Do you think you've Zac Goldsmith | :22:02. | :22:03. | |
bought the kind of campaign you fought in Scotland the Conservatives | :22:04. | :22:11. | |
might have held on to the mayor? I don't qualify to talk about that, | :22:12. | :22:15. | |
I've only been to London once this year. I knew I had a job to deliver | :22:16. | :22:20. | |
here in Scotland. Even though I am a political geek I didn't watch the | :22:21. | :22:23. | |
London mayoral race that closely I had a job to do the. Thank you. | :22:24. | :22:27. | |
So Labour ended the week with a big result to feel cheerful about thanks | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
to Sadiq Khan's thumping win over Zac Goldsmith to become | :22:32. | :22:33. | |
The numeric macro has used his big job in office to reach out beyond | :22:34. | :22:43. | |
the activists, which sounds like criticism of Jeremy Corbyn. He was | :22:44. | :22:44. | |
talking to Andrew Marr earlier. We in Labour, our mission is to | :22:45. | :22:49. | |
improve people's lives, and change We only do that | :22:50. | :22:52. | |
by winning elections, by having a mandate | :22:53. | :22:55. | |
to improve people's lives. What are the challenges | :22:56. | :22:57. | |
facing Londoners? How do you tackle | :22:58. | :22:58. | |
the housing crisis? How do you ensure we have a modern | :22:59. | :23:00. | |
and affordable transport system? How do young people get | :23:01. | :23:03. | |
the skills of tomorrow? We only do that by speaking to those | :23:04. | :23:05. | |
people who previously By speaking to Tory voters, | :23:06. | :23:11. | |
to those outside of our tent. And my point is, we've got to | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
stop talking about ourselves. Well, to discuss this we're joined | :23:16. | :23:17. | |
from Leeds by Caroline Flint, she was of course a former minister | :23:18. | :23:21. | |
and was in Ed Miliband's Welcome back to the programme | :23:22. | :23:31. | |
Caroline Flint. Let me put Sadiq Khan's quote to you. So-called | :23:32. | :23:35. | |
natural Labour voters alone will never be enough to win a general | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
election. Have you seen any progress from Thursday's results that Jeremy | :23:40. | :23:44. | |
Corbyn's Labour Party is making progress in appealing to beyond the | :23:45. | :23:49. | |
faithful? We need to make a lot more progress, Andrew. Although we had a | :23:50. | :23:52. | |
fantastic result in London with Sadiq Khan, and I have to say the | :23:53. | :23:57. | |
Tory campaign was both shameful and disgusting. We won in Bristol with | :23:58. | :24:02. | |
Marvin and held onto councils like Crawley, Southampton and Redditch | :24:03. | :24:05. | |
and Hastings, where I have been many times. It is not enough. We have to | :24:06. | :24:10. | |
show that we are a party that is competitively challenging the | :24:11. | :24:14. | |
government. That is why, as Sadiq said in his interview in the | :24:15. | :24:17. | |
Observer today, we have to reach out beyond the big cities and reach out | :24:18. | :24:22. | |
to those people who voted Conservative to vote Labour. Then we | :24:23. | :24:26. | |
can have big politics for a big election and when it. What you say | :24:27. | :24:29. | |
to John McDonnell, been a bit too in your party, saying I think we are on | :24:30. | :24:35. | |
a steady course for victory in 2020. We are laying the foundations for | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
that long haul victory in 2020. Is he right or wrong? I believe in | :24:40. | :24:44. | |
honest straight talking politics. John McDonnell said in the run-up to | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
these elections, we are looking to hang on. Looking to hang on isn't | :24:49. | :24:53. | |
enough. This is the worst result for an opposition party after a general | :24:54. | :24:57. | |
election in 30th. The year after Michael foot was elected we gained | :24:58. | :25:03. | |
1000 council seats. Tony Blair 1800, Ed Miliband over 800. We actually | :25:04. | :25:09. | |
had a loss of 28. In fact, the Tories, when you look at directly | :25:10. | :25:13. | |
contested elections, gained three. It doesn't take away from the hard | :25:14. | :25:19. | |
work on the ground by Labour councillors, Parliamentary | :25:20. | :25:20. | |
candidates and members in these elections, but we need to be making | :25:21. | :25:25. | |
far more inroads to be within an opportunity to win in 2020. That is | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
the challenge for Jeremy. He deserves the right to lead, won the | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
election, but he has to show, what have the loan from these elections? | :25:35. | :25:38. | |
Will he talked people like Sadiq Khan to think about how we broaden | :25:39. | :25:42. | |
our appeal so we can be in a very strong position, 2020. How long has | :25:43. | :25:47. | |
it got to learn these lessons? Our members were only elected in | :25:48. | :25:51. | |
September last year. I said he won on a huge mandate. He has not only | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
won the right to be leader, he is the leader and our members believe | :25:57. | :25:59. | |
Labour leaders should have the time to prove themselves. But, you know | :26:00. | :26:03. | |
we know when the election is going to be, that is something relatively | :26:04. | :26:07. | |
new to our politics in Britain. We also know this election we have to | :26:08. | :26:11. | |
be honest about what the positive aspects and also about what didn't | :26:12. | :26:14. | |
work and where we need to gain ground. How long have you got? | :26:15. | :26:19. | |
People will be looking to hear from Jeremy what he's run and how he will | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
take us forward and they will be looking... We have elections next | :26:24. | :26:26. | |
year and the year after, but we have to ask ourselves is a party. I think | :26:27. | :26:30. | |
this is a really big task for Jeremy Tilse. We are having a debate about | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
what is the Labour Party for? We have to decide, are we a party of | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
protest or a mainstream, democratic socialist party which is | :26:40. | :26:41. | |
competitively challenging for government? If we are the latter, | :26:42. | :26:46. | |
which we should be, we need to have the politics and the leadership to | :26:47. | :26:51. | |
actually talk about that much, much more and take us board. That is | :26:52. | :26:55. | |
really important for all of us. We have to ask ourselves is well, we | :26:56. | :27:00. | |
have ten years of opposition here. We don't need another five on top of | :27:01. | :27:06. | |
that. John McDonnell thinks you begrudge things. He says, for | :27:07. | :27:09. | |
goodness sake get behind the leader, it is time to put up or shut up. I | :27:10. | :27:14. | |
am someone who loves the Labour Party. I joined in 1979, I know what | :27:15. | :27:23. | |
it's like... Put up or shut up? I am putting up. I put up in the House of | :27:24. | :27:28. | |
Commons, where I am working with John McDonnell's team on tax | :27:29. | :27:32. | |
transparency measures. We have a Tory party that should be absolutely | :27:33. | :27:36. | |
on the ropes. A jet measures they had to drop on tax credits, Sunday | :27:37. | :27:40. | |
trading they have had to drop, and I knew turned since the last general | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
election. The education policy in tatters, the Panama papers, it goes | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
on and on. The truth is we need to be making sure that the public know | :27:51. | :27:56. | |
about that and we have an alternative to that. At the moment, | :27:57. | :28:00. | |
despite all those issues facing the Tory party, we didn't make as much | :28:01. | :28:04. | |
progress as we showed. Let's be honest about these results, let's be | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
honest about we need to reach out beyond our core vote, just as Sadiq | :28:09. | :28:12. | |
Khan said. I hope John McDonnell will back me on that. Lets see if we | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
can continue with this honesty. Given Scotland is now effectively a | :28:19. | :28:21. | |
no go area for Labour, how could you ever hope to win the 2020 election | :28:22. | :28:28. | |
on England alone? You would need a 13 point lead, a bigger lead than | :28:29. | :28:34. | |
Tony Blair had. That is just not conceivable. It is a massive | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
challenge, Andrew. In Scotland are very disappointing night for | :28:40. | :28:42. | |
Scotland. I think how Scottish friends all know that the way back | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
for Labour will take some time. I wouldn't blame Jeremy Corbyn for | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
what happened in Scotland either. You are right. My understanding is | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
if we don't make the sort of comeback we need to in Scotland, in | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
the numbers were used to be able to rely on, we need to gain something | :29:01. | :29:05. | |
like 100 seats, 100 seats in England to have a majority. We need to have | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
that sort of talking within the party. Activists realise protests in | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
themselves will not be enough. Labour votes won't be enough and I'm | :29:15. | :29:17. | |
looking to Jeremy Corbyn to provide the leadership that. | :29:18. | :29:21. | |
A final question. What you say to several Tory MPs who have said to | :29:22. | :29:31. | |
me, and I quote, Mr Corbyn's survival is the single most | :29:32. | :29:36. | |
important thing for Tories for 2020? If we are not winning elections, | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
they will say that. In many respects, the Tories were probably | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
relatively relieved. Despite the shameful campaign they ran in | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
London, given everything that's been going on in government in the last | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
eight months, they should be quite relieved in terms of the result. We | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
need to show them that Jeremy can stand up and face those criticisms, | :29:59. | :30:03. | |
and the way he does that is by reaching out, as Sadiq Khan has | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
done, as have many councils across the country in keeping their seats, | :30:08. | :30:12. | |
and do the right thing for Labour. We need to move on, Caroline. Thank | :30:13. | :30:14. | |
you. So that's the view of one former | :30:15. | :30:16. | |
member of the Labour frontbench - we're joined now by the current | :30:17. | :30:19. | |
shadow energy minister Clive Lewis, he's in our Norwich studio - | :30:20. | :30:21. | |
welcome to the Sunday Politics. Morning, Andrew. Caroline Flint was | :30:22. | :30:30. | |
saying that George Osborne's latest budget is in ruins, the Tories are | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
tearing themselves apart over Europe, Iain Duncan Smith resigned | :30:35. | :30:37. | |
because of what the government is doing to the working poor. The best | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
Mr Corbyn could say was, we hung on. Is that good enough? Let's have a | :30:43. | :30:50. | |
look at the focus of the media to -- the media and the punditry. It was | :30:51. | :30:56. | |
issued in the Labour Party that was the core focus for you guys. You | :30:57. | :31:00. | |
brought that on yourselves. The bottom line is, at the start of your | :31:01. | :31:05. | |
programme, you began that the results of the Labour Party, when | :31:06. | :31:09. | |
actually, we were up 2% in the national share vote and the Tories | :31:10. | :31:14. | |
were down 5%. Yet you in your commentators started on how it was a | :31:15. | :31:18. | |
result for Labour. I'm not saying it was anything to shout about. But | :31:19. | :31:24. | |
let's look at the results. You need 13 points to win, so I would suggest | :31:25. | :31:27. | |
that one or two points is neither here nor there was yellow Caroline | :31:28. | :31:31. | |
Flint hit the nail on the head in that we have a massive task in front | :31:32. | :31:36. | |
of us. But infighting is not the way forward. That is not going to help | :31:37. | :31:42. | |
us achieve victory in 2020. We all know it is a massive uphill | :31:43. | :31:46. | |
struggle. We need to think how we can make the best effort to win in | :31:47. | :31:51. | |
2020, and that is what the next few weeks and months need to be about. I | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
agree with with so much of what Sadiq Khan said in his interview. | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
Why doesn't Jeremy Corbyn meet with him? I think he will. But he won the | :32:01. | :32:09. | |
capital city, by 14 points. It was an incredible victory, the first | :32:10. | :32:14. | |
Muslim leader of a major city in Europe. And Mr Corbyn, we haven't | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
seen him anywhere near him yet. It is a fantastic victory. Sadiq Khan | :32:21. | :32:26. | |
nominated Jeremy. He didn't vote for him, which is a brilliantly | :32:27. | :32:32. | |
principled position. Corbyn and Khan are comrades and good friends. They | :32:33. | :32:38. | |
have a lot to learn from each other. Sadiq Khan won because he was with | :32:39. | :32:44. | |
Jeremy Corbyn. All the people in London who are supporting the Labour | :32:45. | :32:48. | |
Party under Jeremy Corbyn and reaching out. I am sure that Sadiq | :32:49. | :32:53. | |
and Jeremy will meet in the near future. It is certainly unusual. | :32:54. | :33:00. | |
Caroline Flint has just told us that the Conservatives should be happy | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
and relieved by Thursday's results. I don't think they should. In Exeter | :33:05. | :33:09. | |
they lost four seats. In Ipswich, there were seats we didn't even win | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
in 97. Their share of the vote is down 5%. They didn't make the games | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
expected in Wales. I don't think it is a fantastic result for them at | :33:21. | :33:24. | |
all. I expect the Conservatives will try to turn the focus back on to | :33:25. | :33:34. | |
Labour, but I don't think they've got anything to crow about either at | :33:35. | :33:37. | |
the moment. What do you say to Ian Murray, the Scottish Secretary, the | :33:38. | :33:39. | |
only Labour MP in Scotland. He says, I don't think the public see the UK | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn as being a credible party of future | :33:44. | :33:50. | |
government in 2020. I listened to the whole interview, and I respect | :33:51. | :33:55. | |
Ian Murray great real. I heard his statement. I think he was saying, | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
basically, where we are as a party at the moment isn't good enough. I | :34:02. | :34:05. | |
don't think you'll find anyone in the Labour Party who would disagree | :34:06. | :34:10. | |
with that. We need to move forward and consolidate. These results were | :34:11. | :34:14. | |
not the disaster that you and the punditry were predicting. We were | :34:15. | :34:18. | |
told 150 or 200 seats lost -- would be lost. We were told Jeremy Corbyn | :34:19. | :34:25. | |
wouldn't win, and then he won with a landslide. We won -- we heard that | :34:26. | :34:29. | |
the old by-election would be a disaster. And he won. I think the | :34:30. | :34:35. | |
thing to think about now is that politics is in flux. In the US, we | :34:36. | :34:45. | |
have a socialist running Hillary Clinton to the wire, but then you | :34:46. | :34:50. | |
have Donald Trump standing as well. People are concerned and angry, and | :34:51. | :34:53. | |
things are changing, and the punditry needs to take that into | :34:54. | :34:58. | |
account and reflect that things are changing. We will take that into | :34:59. | :35:03. | |
account. I never use the word disaster to talk about Labour's | :35:04. | :35:08. | |
performance on Thursday. Let's stick with that. I put to you that surely | :35:09. | :35:14. | |
the real lesson from Scotland is this - if you continue to attack | :35:15. | :35:20. | |
north of the border, as you have been, you need to do better in | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
England than even Tony Blair did in 97, and that, I put to you, is | :35:27. | :35:31. | |
frankly fantasy. Let's look at Scotland. It was a very difficult | :35:32. | :35:36. | |
night for us. I would rather you looked at England and tell me how | :35:37. | :35:41. | |
you will do well. This is the issue - what we have done in this weeks | :35:42. | :35:46. | |
election is consolidate our vote in 2015 and improve it by 2%. We now | :35:47. | :35:53. | |
need to move forward. We now have next to no chance of winning in 2020 | :35:54. | :35:58. | |
if we remain a divided house, and that is what has happened at the | :35:59. | :36:03. | |
moment. What we can all learn from Sadiq was explaining is -- in his | :36:04. | :36:09. | |
interview is that we have consolidated our vote in 2015 and | :36:10. | :36:14. | |
improved it, and now we have to move on small businesses, to those who | :36:15. | :36:18. | |
are affected by the government cuts on public services. We need to reach | :36:19. | :36:23. | |
out to people who have voted Conservative in the past. I think it | :36:24. | :36:26. | |
is a message that Jeremy Corbyn has two and will listen to. But the key | :36:27. | :36:33. | |
thing is that a house divided has no chance of being able to do that in | :36:34. | :36:35. | |
2020. Thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am - | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers | :36:40. | :36:41. | |
in Scotland, who leave us now we're going to be talking | :36:42. | :36:44. | |
about a big week ahead Hello and welcome to | :36:45. | :36:49. | |
the Sunday Politics Wales. As AMs make their way | :36:50. | :36:58. | |
to Cardiff Bay, what next The man who chairs the Tories | :36:59. | :37:01. | |
here tells me he wants answers after his party | :37:02. | :37:05. | |
lost seats on Thursday. Labour retained 29 seats, | :37:06. | :37:11. | |
but lost the Rhondda to Plaid. Elsewhere the Tories and Lib Dems | :37:12. | :37:15. | |
were disappointed to have lost James Williams now, | :37:16. | :37:18. | |
on where the parties go next. After a frantic few days and | :37:19. | :37:33. | |
sleepless nights, the dust is beginning to settle on the election. | :37:34. | :37:37. | |
But there are still big questions that need answering. The biggest of | :37:38. | :37:43. | |
which, what will Welsh Labour do? Having lost just one seat, will | :37:44. | :37:47. | |
Carwyn Jones and his party decide to do as they did last time round and | :37:48. | :37:52. | |
go it alone? I am quite relaxed about us going as a minority. You | :37:53. | :37:55. | |
get some strength from that because you know you have to do a deal with | :37:56. | :38:00. | |
people. It is not so difficult to where we were a few weeks with 30 | :38:01. | :38:03. | |
seats and very similar to the SNP in Scotland. I am expecting there will | :38:04. | :38:08. | |
be a minority Labour government formed in the coming days or weeks. | :38:09. | :38:14. | |
After party leader Leanne Wood 's extraordinary victory, Plaid Cymru | :38:15. | :38:17. | |
finds itself back in second place. And as it stands, I detect little | :38:18. | :38:22. | |
appetite amongst the party 's top Raster formally joining coalition | :38:23. | :38:28. | |
with Labour. The Welsh Conservatives on the other hand have another | :38:29. | :38:31. | |
question to answer. There's Andrew RT Davies stay on as leader? This is | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
not that the time for knee jerk reaction. As a party, we will be | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
looking at this result and wondering why we did not quite make the | :38:41. | :38:43. | |
strides we were hoping to but equally we did not lose any first | :38:44. | :38:48. | |
past the post seats. We are competitive in seats we have never | :38:49. | :38:53. | |
won before. It is not a disaster. The Welsh Conservative Party is | :38:54. | :38:56. | |
still here and here in force in Wales but we need to look at why we | :38:57. | :38:59. | |
did not quite make up rate we were hoping to. One Conservative source | :39:00. | :39:03. | |
tells me that senior party members are quote rallying around Andrew RT | :39:04. | :39:08. | |
Davies, saying that the feeling is that he fought a good campaign and | :39:09. | :39:12. | |
was not to blame for the party 's poor results. One of the parties | :39:13. | :39:16. | |
Assembly Members tells me that the party needs to get away from this | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
football culture of sacking the manager after a bad result. But they | :39:21. | :39:25. | |
do expect a piece one member of the group in the assembly to challenge | :39:26. | :39:30. | |
Mr Davies' leadership post you would think Ukip having entered the | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
assembly for the first time would be busy celebrating. But they too are | :39:34. | :39:38. | |
pondering their leadership. The leader of the party in Wales is | :39:39. | :39:45. | |
myself. We will I'm sure be deciding who will be leading the group | :39:46. | :39:47. | |
amongst ourselves at our first group meeting which we will be having on | :39:48. | :39:51. | |
Tuesday. Do you expect to be challenged? I would not be surprised | :39:52. | :39:57. | |
if I was but that is healthy in democracy. I have no problem with | :39:58. | :40:01. | |
that. I have it on good authority that Neil Hamilton will challenge | :40:02. | :40:04. | |
Nathan Gill for leadership of the Ukip group in the assembly when the | :40:05. | :40:09. | |
party Assembly Members meet for the first time on Tuesday morning. I | :40:10. | :40:13. | |
understand that Nathan Gill is confident that he has the numbers | :40:14. | :40:17. | |
and the support to carry the vote. Another question that needs | :40:18. | :40:22. | |
answering, who will replace Dame Rosemary Butler as designing offers | :40:23. | :40:27. | |
a question with macro? I am told Kirsty Williams has been interested | :40:28. | :40:31. | |
in the post in the past but the name keeps cropping up is David melding, | :40:32. | :40:36. | |
a deputy in the last assembly. I am told he is interested in the post | :40:37. | :40:41. | |
and will would knock we will see if he has enough cross-party support. | :40:42. | :40:44. | |
Having answered some questions, the election nevertheless has posed | :40:45. | :40:48. | |
others. Perhaps we will have some certainty in the coming days. | :40:49. | :40:50. | |
Plenty of food for thought there, and here to chew it over | :40:51. | :40:53. | |
with me are two new kids on the Assembly block. | :40:54. | :40:56. | |
Jeremy Miles was elected for Labour in Neath, | :40:57. | :40:58. | |
and Sian Gwenllian who's the new Plaid Cymru AM for Arfon. | :40:59. | :41:00. | |
Thank you both very much for joining me this morning. Congratulations on | :41:01. | :41:12. | |
being voted in. We heard Carwyn Jones saying this morning, a tough | :41:13. | :41:18. | |
election for Labour, as good a result as you think it was, but | :41:19. | :41:21. | |
lessons need to be learned. What do you think that means? The first | :41:22. | :41:26. | |
thing is against great results the last election, 30 seats, it is a | :41:27. | :41:32. | |
great result this time, to manage to get 29 seats. I think that is the | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
first point to note. At underlying those headline results, there have | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
been swings against Labour and indeed against Plaid Cymru and the | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
Conservative Party in a number of constituencies and I think it is | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
important to understand what the electorate are saying to us in that | :41:52. | :41:56. | |
context. Were you surprised some of the constituencies did not go to the | :41:57. | :42:02. | |
Conservatives? And to Plaid Cymru? None of them managed to take seats, | :42:03. | :42:06. | |
with the notable exception of the Rhondda. I think it is read as a | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
that 29 was the upper end of expectations and that was as a | :42:11. | :42:16. | |
result, a very good result. But the campaigns in those seats, take | :42:17. | :42:18. | |
Llanelli for example, Lee Waters is a strong candidate and that paid | :42:19. | :42:25. | |
off. The party made the right judgment as to which of the seated | :42:26. | :42:31. | |
wanted to focus its energies in. Sian Gwenllian, the Rhondda is | :42:32. | :42:34. | |
something that many Plaid Cymru supporters will be delighted about | :42:35. | :42:38. | |
but apart from that personal debt three four Leanne Wood, is there a | :42:39. | :42:43. | |
disappointment that really on a national level Plaid Cymru went up | :42:44. | :42:50. | |
just over 1% Qusair Maki did not make a great breakthrough. It was an | :42:51. | :42:55. | |
excellent night for Plaid Cymru with the notable success four Leanne | :42:56. | :43:01. | |
Wood, it is still a very sweet for us as members of Plaid Cymru. But we | :43:02. | :43:06. | |
had successes in Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Carmarthen, Cardiff | :43:07. | :43:10. | |
West, where the percentages increase. But gaining support is one | :43:11. | :43:15. | |
thing, unless you take seated means nothing. No wonder we were very | :43:16. | :43:22. | |
close in Aberconwy and Llanelli. But we have now a fantastic platform on | :43:23. | :43:26. | |
which to build and we have a fantastic team of people in the | :43:27. | :43:32. | |
assembly and we are ready to be working hard and also to be the | :43:33. | :43:40. | |
opposition, challenging the Labour government. There are clear messages | :43:41. | :43:44. | |
coming from the electorate that they may have voted for Labour but that | :43:45. | :43:47. | |
does not mean to say that they are completely happy with what has been | :43:48. | :43:51. | |
going on over the last 17 years. The messages we are getting through is | :43:52. | :43:56. | |
that they need now to really get to grips with some of the problems in | :43:57. | :43:59. | |
education and the health service and the economy and we will be holding | :44:00. | :44:03. | |
them to account on that. As you would expect them to do. Is there a | :44:04. | :44:09. | |
feeling that in those areas like part of the valleys, Blaenau Gwent, | :44:10. | :44:14. | |
down to 600 between you and Plaid Cymru, in the north-east of Wales, | :44:15. | :44:16. | |
the Conservatives are closing on, that they did not make those big | :44:17. | :44:20. | |
rigs whose this time but the writing is on the wall very much tearing | :44:21. | :44:24. | |
future elections? I think if you look at what has happened in | :44:25. | :44:27. | |
different constituencies, where the Labour Party 's vote has gone down, | :44:28. | :44:32. | |
the beneficiaries is different in different constituencies. That is | :44:33. | :44:36. | |
why I say the time for making the assessment on this is not really on | :44:37. | :44:39. | |
the hoof, just after the election. There needs to be a sober reflection | :44:40. | :44:44. | |
on the pattern across Wales. So that we learn the right messages. It is | :44:45. | :44:48. | |
fantastic to have the result that we have had. Other parties have not | :44:49. | :44:52. | |
woken through in the way it was expected, or at least they expected, | :44:53. | :44:57. | |
but it is incumbent upon us to reflect on why those majorities have | :44:58. | :45:00. | |
gone down in some places. What will change? You have the votes but is | :45:01. | :45:04. | |
people do seem to be wanting a change. We have seen problems with | :45:05. | :45:08. | |
health and education and so on. There's anything change now from a | :45:09. | :45:12. | |
Labour group point of view in the assembly? You take time to reflect | :45:13. | :45:16. | |
on some of those policies or do you think it is good to be business as | :45:17. | :45:20. | |
usual? It was laid out in the manifesto what we planned to do if | :45:21. | :45:23. | |
we were in government, as we will be for the next five years. And the | :45:24. | :45:29. | |
task in hand is to implement as much of that as we can. There have been | :45:30. | :45:34. | |
specific commitments in the areas of health, building on the reforms that | :45:35. | :45:38. | |
we have not implemented to date already. There have been commitments | :45:39. | :45:42. | |
on funding in education, a game building on what has been happening | :45:43. | :45:47. | |
in the last assembly. As Carwyn Jones himself said, we were putting | :45:48. | :45:51. | |
ourselves forward in the election as being halfway through a decade of | :45:52. | :45:54. | |
delivery and we want to complete that but there will be conversations | :45:55. | :45:58. | |
with parties as they were in the last assembly in order to make sure | :45:59. | :46:02. | |
that we can deliver as much that manifesto as we possibly can. We had | :46:03. | :46:06. | |
effectively the last assembly 30 seats, one was the presiding | :46:07. | :46:11. | |
officer, Carwyn Jones was able to deliver a programme of government by | :46:12. | :46:14. | |
having discussions with other parties. To get budgets through, | :46:15. | :46:20. | |
Sian Gwenllian, they will be drawing on support perhaps from Plaid Cymru. | :46:21. | :46:26. | |
What would be on top of your list of priorities? Of course, we will be | :46:27. | :46:35. | |
happy to cooperate so long as we feel that we can get deals that are | :46:36. | :46:45. | |
good for the people of Wales. My personal view is that we now should | :46:46. | :46:51. | |
move forward on the small business rates policy for example where there | :46:52. | :46:54. | |
is consensus across the board that we should be cutting those business | :46:55. | :46:58. | |
rates and childcare is another area as well. There is consensus on some | :46:59. | :47:04. | |
of those policies. The M4 relief road? Is that something you would be | :47:05. | :47:08. | |
keen to sort of maybe water down the plans there? Well, getting the | :47:09. | :47:17. | |
balance right on infrastructure projects between North and South | :47:18. | :47:22. | |
Wales is absolutely crucial now. If Labour are really going to prove to | :47:23. | :47:25. | |
the people of North Wales that they do care about North Wales, they | :47:26. | :47:29. | |
should now put aside their ideas for the M4 relief road, the option that | :47:30. | :47:35. | |
they are trying to back, and really start thinking about improving the | :47:36. | :47:40. | |
infrastructure in North Wales and pushing for the electrification of | :47:41. | :47:42. | |
the railways as well. Is not something that should be considered | :47:43. | :47:46. | |
quitting Mark we made commitments in the manifesto to the Eira roads in | :47:47. | :47:51. | |
North Wales, the Metro in North Wales. There are infrastructure | :47:52. | :47:57. | |
commitments in North Wales. The Metro North Wales is not going to | :47:58. | :48:00. | |
happen. That is just something that was a gimmick during the election. I | :48:01. | :48:06. | |
want to see the A55 improvements there to the infrastructure. Without | :48:07. | :48:14. | |
going into too much detail on particular projects, is it something | :48:15. | :48:18. | |
that there will have to be areas now, you say about your manifesto, | :48:19. | :48:22. | |
you have not got a majority, so some things are going to have to change? | :48:23. | :48:26. | |
Do you see room for manoeuvre on these things question mark Carwyn | :48:27. | :48:30. | |
Jones is having discussions with other parties. What those | :48:31. | :48:34. | |
discussions among two is in tidying matter for him and the objectives | :48:35. | :48:39. | |
and him. In order to get our programme through last assembly | :48:40. | :48:43. | |
without an absolute majority, conversations have to happen and I | :48:44. | :48:47. | |
expect that were continuing the next SMB. It is the right way to deal | :48:48. | :48:51. | |
with things. Thank you for coming in this morning. | :48:52. | :48:54. | |
There are two of the new Assembly Members, and there will be | :48:55. | :48:57. | |
almost two dozen newbies in the new session. | :48:58. | :48:59. | |
We know who they are and which parties they represent. | :49:00. | :49:02. | |
But what about the figures which haven't had an airing? | :49:03. | :49:04. | |
Rhodri Lewis now with your cut out and keep guide to who's | :49:05. | :49:07. | |
Over 60 who will be coming Cardiff Bay next week to begin work, | :49:08. | :49:17. | |
22, more than a third, are new to the job. | :49:18. | :49:19. | |
Well, OK, it is 21 plus one actually. | :49:20. | :49:21. | |
Dai Lloyd is back after retaking the seat he lost five years ago. | :49:22. | :49:24. | |
The number of women has increased by one. | :49:25. | :49:26. | |
My maths tells me that means there are therefore 35 men. | :49:27. | :49:30. | |
Minority ethnic group is make up about 4.5% of Wales' population | :49:31. | :49:33. | |
but only two will be in the new assembly. | :49:34. | :49:35. | |
Oscar Ashgar and Vaughan Gething both served last time round. | :49:36. | :49:37. | |
Hannah Blythyn, Jeremy Miles and Adam Price are the first openly | :49:38. | :49:40. | |
The Stonewall group said that was a milestone in democracy. | :49:41. | :49:43. | |
And Adam Price is also one of seven former MPs now in Cardiff Bay. | :49:44. | :49:48. | |
Three were already there but now there is also Huw Irranca-Davies, | :49:49. | :49:51. | |
who gave up his Commons seat, and he has been joined by two | :49:52. | :49:54. | |
others, who were kicked out by voters elsewhere. | :49:55. | :49:56. | |
And there will be drinks all round at the House of Lords | :49:57. | :50:06. | |
as peers celebrate doubling their representation. | :50:07. | :50:07. | |
Labour Eluned Morgan, AKA the Baroness Morgan of Ely, | :50:08. | :50:09. | |
joins Dafydd Elis-Thomas, Lord Elis-Thomas of Nant Conwy, | :50:10. | :50:11. | |
adding membership of the altogether younger Welsh institution to that | :50:12. | :50:14. | |
With Edwina Hart and Huw Lewis standing down and Leighton Andrews | :50:15. | :50:25. | |
out, Carwyn Jones has plenty of opportunity to | :50:26. | :50:27. | |
Could this be the biggest reshuffle seen in many years? | :50:28. | :50:30. | |
So something there of what we can expect in the days to come, | :50:31. | :50:44. | |
They lost seats and support on Thursday. | :50:45. | :50:47. | |
The first and only time they went backwards since devolution. | :50:48. | :50:49. | |
Their Chairman in Wales is Jonathan Evans. | :50:50. | :50:51. | |
I spoke to him a little earlier and began by asking him how | :50:52. | :50:54. | |
disappointing the results were for his party. | :50:55. | :51:06. | |
It is disappointing. I would prefer to be chairman of a party that | :51:07. | :51:12. | |
continued to add members of the assembly and add votes. Having said | :51:13. | :51:15. | |
that, we have to recognise this was always gone to be a difficult | :51:16. | :51:21. | |
election for us. Firstly, the UK Independence Party was standing in | :51:22. | :51:23. | |
every constituency in Wales and they have not done that previously. Polls | :51:24. | :51:26. | |
were indicating they were likely to go beyond the 7% threshold that | :51:27. | :51:32. | |
would win them regional seats. And date of our 20 regional seats are | :51:33. | :51:36. | |
held by the Conservatives. We were always likely to be under pressure | :51:37. | :51:40. | |
in regional seats. It was always gone to be your strategy to target | :51:41. | :51:47. | |
the constituencies. You gained constituencies last time. What went | :51:48. | :51:54. | |
wrong. The first thing to say is that we do not start from the | :51:55. | :51:56. | |
position that we had last time around. We start from the position | :51:57. | :52:00. | |
of the last assembly election in those seats because voters in Wales | :52:01. | :52:06. | |
now they vote somewhat differently in assembly elections to | :52:07. | :52:09. | |
Parliamentary elections. For instance, if you look at a seat like | :52:10. | :52:14. | |
Cardiff North, we do not start with a 2000 majority. We start with a | :52:15. | :52:18. | |
position where we are couple of thousand votes behind and in some | :52:19. | :52:22. | |
constituencies for example like the Vale of Glamorgan, they of Clwyd and | :52:23. | :52:25. | |
Wrexham, we are starting in a position where we are 4000 behind. | :52:26. | :52:31. | |
Was it just overhyped and over spun by the Conservatives who were | :52:32. | :52:34. | |
saying, look at north-east Wales, in play, the veil, Cardiff North, and | :52:35. | :52:40. | |
what we saw in Cardiff North, Julie Morgan doubling her majority. Was | :52:41. | :52:46. | |
there a touch of arrogance after last year 's election? I think the | :52:47. | :52:49. | |
position is we could see we were making progress in north-east Wales. | :52:50. | :52:55. | |
You do not know how much progress and it has to be said that which | :52:56. | :53:00. | |
even a swing of 9% as you know is an enormous swing. And people were | :53:01. | :53:05. | |
seeing that we were making progress. The final outcome is swings of five, | :53:06. | :53:11. | |
six, 7% in some constituencies in north-east Wales, down in the Gower, | :53:12. | :53:17. | |
a swing to us over 5%. These are enormous swings and I think they | :53:18. | :53:21. | |
were for people. But we did not manage to get over the line and also | :53:22. | :53:25. | |
in a couple of places, we went significantly back. Is Andrew RT | :53:26. | :53:31. | |
Davies the correct man to lead the Conservative group? Let me firstly | :53:32. | :53:35. | |
say he worked very hard in the cause of this election campaign. The whole | :53:36. | :53:40. | |
of the board of the Conservative Party apps recognises this. We were | :53:41. | :53:43. | |
very impressed by his performance and very import -- during the course | :53:44. | :53:50. | |
of the debates. It will be a matter for the Assembly group to decide who | :53:51. | :53:54. | |
ultimately is going to be the leader. As the chairman of the party | :53:55. | :53:58. | |
in Wales, I have already announced that we will be undertaking a review | :53:59. | :54:01. | |
of the last two election campaigns and I think that it may well be that | :54:02. | :54:07. | |
my colleagues in the assembly will be wanting to see what the outcome | :54:08. | :54:10. | |
of that review is before they start raising issues in terms of the | :54:11. | :54:14. | |
leadership. We have already hid grumblings. Semi-members were saying | :54:15. | :54:21. | |
to me they were not happy, Andrew needed to shoulder the burden on the | :54:22. | :54:24. | |
blame for this. Is your message, shut up for now I'd wait for this | :54:25. | :54:29. | |
review to come back? Or should they be questioning him? I do not know | :54:30. | :54:35. | |
who these Assembly Members because they have not been speaking to me | :54:36. | :54:39. | |
and I am the chairman of the party. I speak for all of these people. | :54:40. | :54:45. | |
Now, amongst those activists, it is very likely we are going to divide | :54:46. | :54:49. | |
over the next five weeks. Some of us as I have said in my own case will | :54:50. | :54:55. | |
be there trying to make the case alongside the Secretary of State for | :54:56. | :54:57. | |
Wales for us to aim within the European Union. I think none of us | :54:58. | :55:01. | |
wants to see a situation in which the Conservative Party in Wales | :55:02. | :55:06. | |
spends about five week period arguing about who is leading us in | :55:07. | :55:09. | |
the assembly. Let's focus on dealing with the referendum issue first. | :55:10. | :55:12. | |
Well, it's been a big week for Welsh politics with potentially lots | :55:13. | :55:16. | |
You have had a bit of time to recover. What stood out for you on | :55:17. | :55:27. | |
the night? The single moment was Leanne Wood 's spectacular victory | :55:28. | :55:31. | |
in the Rhondda but for me it was a series of moments and it was a | :55:32. | :55:36. | |
succession of veteran Labour Assembly Members and people like Ann | :55:37. | :55:42. | |
Jones, Julie Morgan, it Jane Hutt, Lesley Griffiths, seeing off the | :55:43. | :55:47. | |
Tory challenge in those constituencies, those marginal | :55:48. | :55:49. | |
constituencies where potentially they really could have been hurt. | :55:50. | :55:53. | |
And it was brutally effective and if you throw into the mix the other | :55:54. | :55:58. | |
marginals where they are against the Lib Dems, Cardiff Central, Plaid | :55:59. | :56:01. | |
Cymru in Llanelli, it was extraordinary. I really thought they | :56:02. | :56:06. | |
would have lost one of those marginals, at least, somewhere along | :56:07. | :56:09. | |
the line but to hold all of them was impressive. There was a good | :56:10. | :56:14. | |
headline, the women what won it for Labour. To what extent do you think | :56:15. | :56:19. | |
the Labour Party were a little lucky this time around? There is no doubt | :56:20. | :56:24. | |
that the steel crisis gave him a platform while Sajid Javid was on a | :56:25. | :56:26. | |
plane in Australia somewhere, Stephen Kinnock, I know he is an MP | :56:27. | :56:36. | |
that he was with the unions and there was a 24-hour period where | :56:37. | :56:41. | |
every interview I saw with Carwyn Jones had the blast furnaces in the | :56:42. | :56:45. | |
background. It just gave them a platform to go on. You throw into | :56:46. | :56:51. | |
the big question about tax affairs of senior Conservative politicians | :56:52. | :56:53. | |
at Westminster and I think the other issue is on the NHS, you had this | :56:54. | :56:58. | |
simmering row about the junior doctors strike in England that | :56:59. | :57:02. | |
actually peaked as we were approaching polls for the assembly | :57:03. | :57:07. | |
election and it just helped him, Carwyn Jones, deflect any criticism | :57:08. | :57:10. | |
of the NHS in Wales. Does that explain away the problems for the | :57:11. | :57:15. | |
Tories? We know there is a postmortem, they will see what went | :57:16. | :57:17. | |
wrong this way round, what do you think? The Tories and all the other | :57:18. | :57:24. | |
opposition parties, a central line of attack that Labour have been in | :57:25. | :57:27. | |
power for 17 years, it is time for a change, clearly was not as effective | :57:28. | :57:32. | |
as they would have liked. From the Conservatives prospective and from | :57:33. | :57:36. | |
Jonathan Evans, talking about squeezing the majorities, but the | :57:37. | :57:42. | |
point is, after taking Gower for the first time in 100 years in the | :57:43. | :57:45. | |
general election last year, taking the rate of fluid on the NHS and | :57:46. | :57:49. | |
this was the election on the state of the Welsh NHS, not a year ago, I | :57:50. | :57:54. | |
think squeezing the majority is not good to be good enough for the | :57:55. | :57:57. | |
Conservatives this time around -- the Vale of Clwyd. It is good to be | :57:58. | :58:01. | |
difficult for Andrew RT Davies. We are told he is reflecting on the | :58:02. | :58:03. | |
future at the moment. Any decision will be wrapped up now in the | :58:04. | :58:08. | |
European Union referendum. Things may be put on hold for the time | :58:09. | :58:12. | |
being. Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems, what can we expect from Ukip? Plaid | :58:13. | :58:17. | |
Cymru broadly come not a great night, very benign conditions, you | :58:18. | :58:23. | |
could argue with Ukip taking chunks out of the labour and Conservative | :58:24. | :58:26. | |
vote. They may not have that in the future. But at least they have | :58:27. | :58:29. | |
something to build on and that result in the Rhondda will give them | :58:30. | :58:32. | |
a degree of confidence. The Lib Dems, what is left to say about the | :58:33. | :58:37. | |
Lib Dems Goschen Markley of easily have a huge rebuilding job and the | :58:38. | :58:41. | |
question is whether things have fallen to such a low levels they can | :58:42. | :58:47. | |
possibly come back. Historically, they have had bounceback ability. | :58:48. | :58:51. | |
That is put to the test time now. Ukip are meeting on Tuesday to talk | :58:52. | :58:55. | |
about the leadership there. Do we think that constant infighting is | :58:56. | :59:02. | |
gone to continue? It is. They are going to be scrapping publicly. They | :59:03. | :59:06. | |
will be scrapping against other people and political journalists | :59:07. | :59:08. | |
like you and I to some extent will have to readjust our antenna in | :59:09. | :59:13. | |
terms of how we recover Assembly politics because they will operate | :59:14. | :59:16. | |
in a totally different way to any of the other parties. Thank you very | :59:17. | :59:20. | |
much. Don't forget you follow | :59:21. | :59:22. | |
all the latest on twitter. But for now that's all from me, | :59:23. | :59:24. | |
diolch am wylio, weeks. Thank you for joining us. | :59:25. | :59:53. | |
Andrew, from here in London, back to you. | :59:54. | :00:06. | |
Welcome back. The panel is assembled, and we will be talking | :00:07. | :00:15. | |
about the EU referendum shortly, particularly about Tory splits in | :00:16. | :00:19. | |
that referendum. First, let's get a reaction to what you have been | :00:20. | :00:26. | |
hearing on the show. Caroline Flint was very interesting. She said the | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
things that the moderates have said before, we will need to do better | :00:31. | :00:35. | |
than this, for example. She also repeated the Tom Watson line, which | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
is that our members think that he deserves more time. I'm not even | :00:39. | :00:44. | |
sure that if he had lost London there would have been a coup. There | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
was lots of talk and rumbles, but there is going to be this one this | :00:49. | :00:53. | |
year for sure. The argument from the moderates is that he needs more time | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
because of the mandate. At no point have the Labour voters who voted for | :00:59. | :01:03. | |
Jeremy Corbyn going to say, time is up now. In 2020 when Labour go to a | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
landslide defeat, they will still not think there was an argument for | :01:09. | :01:13. | |
Corbyn not to be leader. There is nothing to be gained by waiting and | :01:14. | :01:18. | |
everything to be lost. When I hear about people talking about the need | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
for unity and lack of squabbling, it did remind me of the appeals that | :01:24. | :01:28. | |
used to be made among Tories during the Maastricht debacle in the early | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
90s, but it never happened, of course. When there are divisions, | :01:33. | :01:37. | |
you can't hide them. This drama is being played out in public. Tom is | :01:38. | :01:42. | |
right. What the so-called moderates are doing now is much more sensible, | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
which is to say, there won't be a coup. The hints that there might be | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
have stopped. There will not be a coup for now, and they are framing | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
it very sensibly with that Watson line, patience. He has this mandate | :02:00. | :02:04. | |
from last September. It's far too early to challenge the mandate when | :02:05. | :02:08. | |
he is still popular with the membership. But let's frame it to | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
see whether he can be an election winner, and that is fair. If he | :02:13. | :02:19. | |
isn't an election winner, they hope at some point to persuade the | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
membership... That they will not persuade the membership. The polls | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
told the members he would not be an election winner and they voted for | :02:28. | :02:31. | |
him anyway. What was always not a feasible option to them, although | :02:32. | :02:37. | |
some were contemplating it, was moving now. It's too early. There is | :02:38. | :02:43. | |
a caveat there, which is that there is no electoral trigger in 2017. He | :02:44. | :02:51. | |
will not be electorally tested in 2017, as it is all about the shires. | :02:52. | :02:54. | |
With the local elections over you can expect the referendum | :02:55. | :02:56. | |
campaign to get as hot as a Sunday afternoon in early May. | :02:57. | :02:59. | |
And, in case you'd forgotten, this is an argument which has pitched | :03:00. | :03:03. | |
former close Cabinet allies against one another. | :03:04. | :03:05. | |
Here's Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Chancellor George Osborne | :03:06. | :03:07. | |
They are giving part of the economic case for each side of the debate. | :03:08. | :03:19. | |
If we look at the arguments that are made now about how Britain might | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
suffer outside the European Union economic play, they are all | :03:24. | :03:25. | |
arguments that are a reprise, a rerun of the original case | :03:26. | :03:28. | |
that was made against staying outside the single currency. | :03:29. | :03:30. | |
But more than that, you can see how countries which are outside | :03:31. | :03:33. | |
the European Union are able to forge trade deals and to grow faster | :03:34. | :03:36. | |
One of the striking things about the EU, is that is has brought | :03:37. | :03:43. | |
economic insecurity and massive youth unemployment to countries | :03:44. | :03:45. | |
I'm pretty clear that there will be a significant hit to the value of | :03:46. | :03:59. | |
people's homes and to the cost of mortgages. That's one example of the | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
kind of economic impact that we get from leaving the youth. The Leave | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
campaign is today saying they would leave the single market. For me, | :04:09. | :04:13. | |
that is an absolutely catastrophic economic mistake our country. | :04:14. | :04:18. | |
Michael Gove said this morning to Andrew Marr that the relations | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
between the warring Tory cabinet ministers were still cordial. Do you | :04:24. | :04:29. | |
believe them, or have a squadron of pigs just flown over the studio? Of | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
course it isn't cordial. No more than what is going on in the Labour | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
Party right now. There is this debate going on. I have wanted a | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
referendum for many years on this issue. It is extraordinary that we | :04:46. | :04:48. | |
have just had the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who has supported the | :04:49. | :04:53. | |
idea of the EU referendum, saying it is catastrophic the dash it would be | :04:54. | :04:59. | |
catastrophic. If one of the options is catastrophic, how irresponsible | :05:00. | :05:05. | |
to have it. In September, they were saying, we haven't finished the | :05:06. | :05:07. | |
negotiations yet and we don't know which way we are going to go. He | :05:08. | :05:13. | |
either lied then, or he is lying now. Which is it? Has this not | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
turned out to be more rancorous, even much more rancorous, than Mr | :05:19. | :05:24. | |
Cameron and George Osborne ever envisaged to three months ago. If | :05:25. | :05:30. | |
you go back to the row we were initially having in January about | :05:31. | :05:33. | |
collective responsibility, which is, will Cameron allow or not allow his | :05:34. | :05:39. | |
cabinet to campaign for leave, and he lost that one. But in May, using | :05:40. | :05:49. | |
key had a point. Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, big hitters doing immense | :05:50. | :05:53. | |
damage to the Tory brand and to Tory unity. Things bubbling up of late | :05:54. | :06:00. | |
are the way that ministers like Priti Patel going for issues like | :06:01. | :06:05. | |
NHS funding. We can pay the NHS more if we left the EU, which means we | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
are not paying enough. That hits right at the heart of government | :06:11. | :06:15. | |
policies. The moment collective responsibility ends, a spell that is | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
cast over us that they all agree with everybody about everything, we | :06:22. | :06:26. | |
never see it in the same way again. In 75 with Harold Wilson - will you | :06:27. | :06:34. | |
remember that? And never again they say that Mr Benn and Mr Wilson and | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
all those people were on the same song sheet. He very clever Rees said | :06:39. | :06:45. | |
an agreement to differ -- very cleverly said. But it was the | :06:46. | :06:52. | |
differing that stood out. We all were two young! But Harold Wilson | :06:53. | :06:57. | |
never played the prominent part in the campaign that David Cameron has | :06:58. | :07:01. | |
played. He kind of stood back from it all. Very clever. But also, using | :07:02. | :07:11. | |
the government's power, it has turned nasty because of the way that | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
the government's Remain side has played it. And some of the | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
ridiculous claims that have been made. People come up to me all the | :07:21. | :07:26. | |
time and say, wide you think this? We want facts. People are crying out | :07:27. | :07:31. | |
for the facts. The Chancellor saying it is going to be catastrophic is | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
absolute and utter nonsense. We know that because the Prime Minister said | :07:37. | :07:40. | |
last year himself that it wouldn't be. Michael Gove said today that he | :07:41. | :07:44. | |
wasn't bothered about being part of the single market. Given that the | :07:45. | :07:49. | |
economic debate is... If you look at the private polling they are doing, | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
the Remain side think they are winning the economic argument. The | :07:54. | :08:00. | |
Leave side think that they will win on immigration, controlling borders | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
and national sovereignty and so on. To say that it doesn't matter if we | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
are in the single market, even if there is a price to pay, could come | :08:09. | :08:15. | |
to haunt the Leave side. I think it is an error. When in the Scottish | :08:16. | :08:25. | |
referendum campaign, Alex Salmond was fudging over the currency issue, | :08:26. | :08:33. | |
the fact that he fudged it meant that he could never say what would | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
actually happen. I think a lot of people will be bothered about being | :08:38. | :08:41. | |
out of the single market, including a lot of their natural supporters, | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
and some business people. I think they are losing the debate on the | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
economy, and that will be more pivotal in the end. The ordinary | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
response to the Remain campaigners about being in the single market | :08:55. | :09:02. | |
is... If you seriously think that BMW is going to go to Angela Merkel | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
and say that they are happy to have 3% WTO tariffs to our biggest market | :09:08. | :09:15. | |
in the UK, that is insane. Gordon Brown has been brought out for the | :09:16. | :09:22. | |
Remain campaign. He had an intervention in the Scottish | :09:23. | :09:24. | |
referendum. I wonder if it could be a repeat for months, because I | :09:25. | :09:31. | |
wonder how much Mr Brown resonates south of the border? You would be | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
tempted to think absolutely not, because Gordon Brown is still a | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
hugely respected figure in Scotland, perhaps less in England. But the key | :09:41. | :09:48. | |
voters, the undecideds, art those middle ranking people. Not those | :09:49. | :09:54. | |
posh people or the people who have made up their minds to leave. The | :09:55. | :10:00. | |
public sector worker, perhaps, middle ranking people. They could | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
crucially play a row role in organising -- galvanising Labour | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
voters. How do you persuade them enough to care? Referendums are | :10:10. | :10:17. | |
dangerous for Prime Minister. They produce wacky sequences. David | :10:18. | :10:23. | |
Cameron was a king for Jeremy Corbyn to do well when he was making a | :10:24. | :10:29. | |
speech in support of staying in. That is what happens in referendums, | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
you become desperate for your previous enemies to survive and | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
flourish. The Labour vote is important. If that doesn't come out, | :10:38. | :10:44. | |
it would be disastrous for Remain. And people in favour of Brexit are | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
going to be more keen to vote because they feel more passionately. | :10:49. | :10:52. | |
It is difficult to be passionate about remaining in the EU. And those | :10:53. | :10:58. | |
who are passionate about coming out are quite eurosceptic. -- about | :10:59. | :11:06. | |
staying in our quite eurosceptic. Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne would put | :11:07. | :11:13. | |
themselves in that category. The EU is constantly being reformed. But | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
not in the direction we want to. And the heads of MI5 and MI6 supported | :11:19. | :11:24. | |
staying in this morning. George Osborne wants to play the security | :11:25. | :11:30. | |
card. Whether they are right or wrong, I would suggest that | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
security, in terms of fighting terrorism and keeping our borders | :11:35. | :11:38. | |
secure, is not something that British people associate naturally | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
with the EU. You are absolutely right. The remainers started off | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
thinking that security would be a big catchphrase, but it hasn't | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
worked. It is a score draw at best, largely because migration has come | :11:53. | :12:00. | |
to play in this security argument. A former head of MI6 has said that it | :12:01. | :12:05. | |
doesn't matter. Remain have got to say something in this. The best they | :12:06. | :12:12. | |
can hope for is, their best suit is the economy, and leave immigration. | :12:13. | :12:16. | |
That is the danger of the security issue. If you bring up security, you | :12:17. | :12:21. | |
can quickly move on to immigration. They can say, you cannot really be | :12:22. | :12:25. | |
secure and less you can control our borders. The moment you got on to | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
immigration, it is highly emotive and the doubters have got some -- | :12:32. | :12:40. | |
those who support out have got some clout on this. As long as the | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
economy is centre stage, and most people assume that Remain are | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
winning that argument, I think that is as Sagna second as going back to | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
75. The polls show that they are ahead on the economy. The 200 page | :12:56. | :13:02. | |
Treasury document was predicated on GDP, but actually it was predicated | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
on an extra 3 million immigrants coming to this country by 2030. We | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
shall see what happens in the next couple of | :13:11. | :13:11. | |
months. We'll be back at the same | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
time, 11.00 next week. You can watch the Daily Politics | :13:16. | :13:17. | |
every day this week at noon. Remember, if it's Sunday, | :13:18. | :13:20. | |
it's the Sunday Politics. MUSIC: Ain't No Mountain High Enough | :13:21. | :13:50. | |
by The Supremes Follow the world's greatest | :13:51. | :13:53. | |
migrations on an epic race for life. | :13:54. | :13:58. |